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000
FXUS65 KPUB 251519
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
919 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Updated the forecast...mainly to make some minor adjustments to
POPs through this evening, based off latest high res guidance.
Rose

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Next cold front currently approaching the northern CO border will
move into southeast Colorado later this morning and afternoon,
stalling out to the south of Highway 50. Meanwhile, southern extent
of the upper trof axis will be swinging through WY and northern CO
this afternoon, with weak embedded impulses within the moisture
plume bringing some lift over southern CO this afternoon. Initially,
sfc dew points behind the front will be running in the upper
40s/lower 50s, but as flow turns more easterly this afternoon, there
will be some better moisture return late this afternoon through this
evening, particularly across the eastern counties. Amount of low
level moisture return and resultant CAPE will largely determine
storm strength today, and there are discrepancies amongst the
models, with NAM12 more moist than GFS and HRRR.  In fact, latest
06z NAM12 has slowed the southward progression of the front today,
which lifts the focus for more widespread thunderstorm activity
across southern parts of the area, northward into the Pikes Peak
region during the afternoon. Will just have to watch how this plays
out through the morning. Far enough north behind the front there
should be sufficient CIN to hamper or delay thunderstorm
development. Most likely scenario is for thunderstorm activity to be
suppressed north of the Palmer Divide, so will keep 20 pops across
northernmost portions of the plains, and scattered pops across the
majority of the mountains and southeast plains during the late
afternoon and evening, with focus for more widespread activity south
of highway 50. Lightning, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail will be the main threats with all thunderstorms today as
deep layer shear is running a tad on the low slide. However, there
will be a marginal risk for severe storms along and immediately
behind the front across the southeast plains through this evening
where CAPE will be higher. Localized hail up to 1 inch in diameter
and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary threats with these more
isolated marginally severe storms.

Most thunderstorm activity should be out of the area by 06z, though
some stragglers will be possible across the far southeast plains
through 09z.  Temperatures today will run around 5 degrees cooler
than yesterday, particularly on the plains.  Overnight lows will
remain on the mild side with residual convective debris cloudiness.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Sunday...Light zonal flow will continue across the state on Sunday,
with E-SE surface flow keeping llvl moisture in place across the
plains. This will provide for scattered pops along the higher
terrain and isolated storms for the e plains, with convection
developing by late morning the most likely scenario. With the
enhanced chances for convection and increased cloud cover, look for
max temps in the 80s for most areas, and near 90 F for the e plains.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper high pressure ridge rebuilds
over the western US, with the ridge axis expected to station over
the Great Basin. This will keep the forecast area under a more
active NW flow aloft, resulting in diurnal isolated mt convection.
Temps are forecast to climb back up into the lower to mid 90s for
the plains, and 80s for the high valleys.

Thursday and Friday...Models continue to show another shortwave
dropping down across the northern plains and Great Lakes region late
Wed through Thu. This will produce a cool surge that will push back
into the eastern half of Colorado, providing for enhanced pcpn
chances starting Thu and persisting into the weekend. Look for max
temps both Thu and Fri to be in the 80s for the plains, and
70s to around 80 F for the high valleys. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A cold front will move through southeast CO after 12z bringing
briefly gusty northerly winds this morning before winds shift out of
the east during the afternoon for both KCOS and KPUB.  The cold
front will be too shallow to affect KALS.  Thunderstorms will
develop over the mountains shortly before 18z, then spread off into
the adjacent plains after 19-20z.  CIGS will remain VFR, however
scattered thunderstorms could briefly cause MVFR VIS in heavy
rainfall through the afternoon and evening and erratic gusty winds
up to 40 kts will be possible.  Some small hail could accompany the
stronger storms, with larger hail possible east of KLHX.
Thunderstorms should diminish after 06z with VFR conditions and
lighter winds expected overnight. -KT


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251011
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
411 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Next cold front currently approaching the northern CO border will
move into southeast Colorado later this morning and afternoon,
stalling out to the south of Highway 50. Meanwhile, southern extent
of the upper trof axis will be swinging through WY and northern CO
this afternoon, with weak embedded impulses within the moisture
plume bringing some lift over southern CO this afternoon. Initially,
sfc dew points behind the front will be running in the upper
40s/lower 50s, but as flow turns more easterly this afternoon, there
will be some better moisture return late this afternoon through this
evening, particularly across the eastern counties. Amount of low
level moisture return and resultant CAPE will largely determine
storm strength today, and there are discrepancies amongst the
models, with NAM12 more moist than GFS and HRRR.  In fact, latest
06z NAM12 has slowed the southward progression of the front today,
which lifts the focus for more widespread thunderstorm activity
across southern parts of the area, northward into the Pikes Peak
region during the afternoon. Will just have to watch how this plays
out through the morning. Far enough north behind the front there
should be sufficient CIN to hamper or delay thunderstorm
development. Most likely scenario is for thunderstorm activity to be
suppressed north of the Palmer Divide, so will keep 20 pops across
northernmost portions of the plains, and scattered pops across the
majority of the mountains and southeast plains during the late
afternoon and evening, with focus for more widespread activity south
of highway 50. Lightning, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail will be the main threats with all thunderstorms today as
deep layer shear is running a tad on the low slide. However, there
will be a marginal risk for severe storms along and immediately
behind the front across the southeast plains through this evening
where CAPE will be higher. Localized hail up to 1 inch in diameter
and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary threats with these more
isolated marginally severe storms.

Most thunderstorm activity should be out of the area by 06z, though
some stragglers will be possible across the far southeast plains
through 09z.  Temperatures today will run around 5 degrees cooler
than yesterday, particularly on the plains.  Overnight lows will
remain on the mild side with residual convective debris cloudiness.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Sunday...Light zonal flow will continue across the state on Sunday,
with E-SE surface flow keeping llvl moisture in place across the
plains. This will provide for scattered pops along the higher
terrain and isolated storms for the e plains, with convection
developing by late morning the most likely scenario. With the
enhanced chances for convection and increased cloud cover, look for
max temps in the 80s for most areas, and near 90 F for the e plains.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper high pressure ridge rebuilds
over the western US, with the ridge axis expected to station over
the Great Basin. This will keep the forecast area under a more
active NW flow aloft, resulting in diurnal isolated mt convection.
Temps are forecast to climb back up into the lower to mid 90s for
the plains, and 80s for the high valleys.

Thursday and Friday...Models continue to show another shortwave
dropping down across the northern plains and Great Lakes region late
Wed through Thu. This will produce a cool surge that will push back
into the eastern half of Colorado, providing for enhanced pcpn
chances starting Thu and persisting into the weekend. Look for max
temps both Thu and Fri to be in the 80s for the plains, and
70s to around 80 F for the high valleys. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A cold front will move through southeast CO after 12z bringing
briefly gusty northerly winds this morning before winds shift out of
the east during the afternoon for both KCOS and KPUB.  The cold
front will be too shallow to affect KALS.  Thunderstorms will
develop over the mountains shortly before 18z, then spread off into
the adjacent plains after 19-20z.  CIGS will remain VFR, however
scattered thunderstorms could briefly cause MVFR VIS in heavy
rainfall through the afternoon and evening and erratic gusty winds
up to 40 kts will be possible.  Some small hail could accompany the
stronger storms, with larger hail possible east of KLHX.
Thunderstorms should diminish after 06z with VFR conditions and
lighter winds expected overnight. -KT

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



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000
FXUS65 KGJT 250948
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
348 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A short-wave trough continued to drive a cool front across
northwest Colorado early this morning. As a result, showers and
embedded thunderstorms continued over the Flat Tops and portions
of the Park Range. Latest short range models indicated this
activity will likely diminish by daybreak and radar trends seemed
to support this assertion.

Drier air begins to filter over the area in the wake of the trough
as flow becomes more zonal today. This is most pronounced behind
the front which stalls out in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor.
As a result, expect no...or very isolated...moist convection
across the north. In contrast, the San Juan mountains will be
active again this afternoon as moisture lingers there. The central
Colorado mountains will fall somewhere in between and can expect
isolated to low end scattered activity into the early evening.

Drying continues tonight which should bring an end to shower
activity by late evening followed by decreasing clouds. Enough
moisture remains over the San Juan mountains for low end
scattered thunderstorm coverage Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler north of the I-70
corridor behind the cool front. Meanwhile...to the south
afternoon highs will be near those recorded Friday. Sunday`s
temperatures are expected to show little change.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

The ridge builds back into the region early next week warming
temperatures. Enough moisture remains over the San Juan Mtns to
keep isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. By mid
week moisture filters northward under the ridge and provides more
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms especially over the
southern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions will be the rule for airports across eastern Utah
and western Colorado through the next 24 hours. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the San Juan
mountains and portions of the central mountains this afternoon.
However, there is little chance for this activity to move over
airports in adjacent valleys. However, strong outflow winds to 35
MPH could impact airport operations. Showers and thunderstorms
will diminish by 04Z/Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 348 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Releases from area dams and management of water diversions will
likely add to flow in some rivers and streams. As a result,
waterways across the area will continue to run high, fast, and
cold through the coming weekend. Stay advised of the latest river
forecasts by visiting our website at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...NL
HYDROLOGY...AS



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000
FXUS65 KBOU 250913
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
313 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday evening)
Issued at 310 am MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Upper level trof will move across the Northern high plains today
with an associated 60kt jet streak stretched across Northern
Colorado. There will be a weak cold front which will accompany the
trof which will slide southward across Northeast Colorado early
this morning. Ahead of the front and with the jet
streak...scattered showers have developed across much of
Northeast Colorado in the past few hours. High resolution models
support this activity at least through the mid morning hours. Once
the front passes...low levels will become more stable with cooler
low level temperatures on the plains. This will keep much of the
plains capped with no thunderstorm activity. Above the inversions
there will be some thunderstorm activity in the
mountains...especially across the Southern Front Range foothills
and Park County and the Palmer Divide. Can`t rule out an isolated
severe storm in the Park/Southern Jeffco with surface based capes
up to 1500j/kg for winds/marginal large hail. Drier air is already
moving into Northwest Colorado so far Northern mountains will be
drier today.

Outflows from these storms could drift into the Southern Denver
areas so have added a slight chance for showers there. Temperatures
will be cooler behind the front with readings only in the lower to
mid 80s over the plains. Lingering clouds and showers will
dissipate this evening with loss of surface heating and overall
subsident airmass.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 aM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Sunday continues to hover around normal with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s on the plains. A deepening upper level low over
Canada combined with a building ridge over the southern CONUS will
create extended zonal flow aloft. In the post frontal upslope
environment storms will be form over the higher terrain then move
over I-25 corridor by Sunday evening. CAPE values are decent with
values of 1500-2000 j/kg and bulk shear values in the 30s. Upper
air soundings also show PW values above 0.90 so main threats will
be brief heavy rain, gusty outflow winds and marginal large hail
of 1 inch or greater.

For Monday into Wednesday the upper level ridge will build back
in over the four corners region. This will bring a gradual warming
trend to the region with highs reaching back into the lower 90s.
There will be enough moisture trapped under the ridge help in the
development of afternoon convection all three days. Storms will
mainly be capable of producing brief heavy rain with gusty winds.
Some storms on Tuesday and Wednesday could be capable of large
hail with stronger CAPE values in the hail growth zone and higher
bulk shear with values in the 40s.

For Thursday into the weekend the upper level ridge will weaken
with a cold front bringing temperatures back to seasonal normals
for the remainder of the week. Diurnal storms will be possible
each day with some reaching marginal severe on the hail side. Will
continue to monitor as week gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 310 am MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Scattered light showers have developed North and East of the local
terminals with more showers expected early am as upper level
disturbance and approaching weak cold front. May need to add some
showers in terminals til about 15z. Once the front passes in the
13-14z time frame...airmass will stabilize for much of the day.
Storm development South and West of the terminals by later this
afternoon may bring back some outflow gusty winds into terminals
by late afternoon.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Entrekin




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250527
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

SPC shows a marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon and
evening across most of the southeast plains and eastern mtns. The
early afternoon mesoanalysis shows 2000-3000+ j/kg of CAPE ovr the
sern plains, but 0-6km shear is only about 15-20 kts.  Showers and
tstms have already developed ovr and nr the hyr trrn, and they are
forecast to move eastward acrs the sern plains this afternoon and
evening.  A couple or a few storms could become severe, with the
main threats being hail around 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts
around 60 mph.

The NAM and HRRR show pcpn chances decreasing after the evening
hours, but they do show some lingering isolated chances after
midnight.  May keep some isold pops in the forecast, but wl go with
dry conditions most areas late tonight.

On Sat, a front is forecast to move south through the sern plains in
the morning hours and the NAM shows some pcpn along that frontal
boundary.  Then in the afternoon hours, the front is expected to
hang up over the southeast corner of the state.  The forecast models
show pcpn ovr and adjacent to the mountain areas, and along the
frontal boundary.  There is expected to be a marginal risk of severe
weather over the southeast corner of the state in the vcnty of the
front.  Temps on Sat are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than
today over the southeast plains, with just slightly cooler temps ovr
the rest of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Long term wx pattern continues to look quite stable, and models
remain in good agreement for the next week or so.

Sunday continues to look relatively cool...or rather near
average...in a post-frontal upslope regime. Usual diurnal pattern
of storms should develop as storms build over the mts mid-day and
then gradually move off into the I-25 corridor by Sun evening.
CAPE is still respectable...1500-2000 j/kg...and with NW flow
aloft bulk shears will be in the 25-30kt range, so would not
be surprised to see a marginal risk assessment for the Plains
at some point. Hail to around an inch and some gusty winds and
heavy rain will be the main threats.

For Mon-Wed, the upper high will build over the 4-corners region,
and temps over the plains should gradually build back into the
mid 90s. There will still be some moisture trapped under the
ridge, so expect more afternoon and evening storms, but SVR threat
will be reduced with the lighter winds aloft and lower CAPE, and
storms will be more confined to the higher terrain.

Upper high will weaken a bit from late Wed through next weekend.
A short wave will track through the N Plains and Miss Valley,
leading to a push of cooler air into E CO. Should see high temps
drop back into the 80s, and a bit more widespread shower and storm
activity area-wide. A few of the storms could be on the strong
side, especially for the far Ern zones. But no significant wx
systems will affect our area, just fairly typical summer wx. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cool front will move south down the plains during the 13-15utc
time frame tomorrow morning. Gusty north winds will occur at kcos
and kpub in the morning shifting to easterly and then
southeasterly by mid afternoon. The best chance for thunder at
kcos and kpub will be in the late afternoon and evening hours
tomorrow. Overall...vfr conditions will predominate at kcos and
kpub next 24h.

kals will be vfr next 24h. There will be a slight chance of
thunder during the late afternoon.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250527
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

SPC shows a marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon and
evening across most of the southeast plains and eastern mtns. The
early afternoon mesoanalysis shows 2000-3000+ j/kg of CAPE ovr the
sern plains, but 0-6km shear is only about 15-20 kts.  Showers and
tstms have already developed ovr and nr the hyr trrn, and they are
forecast to move eastward acrs the sern plains this afternoon and
evening.  A couple or a few storms could become severe, with the
main threats being hail around 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts
around 60 mph.

The NAM and HRRR show pcpn chances decreasing after the evening
hours, but they do show some lingering isolated chances after
midnight.  May keep some isold pops in the forecast, but wl go with
dry conditions most areas late tonight.

On Sat, a front is forecast to move south through the sern plains in
the morning hours and the NAM shows some pcpn along that frontal
boundary.  Then in the afternoon hours, the front is expected to
hang up over the southeast corner of the state.  The forecast models
show pcpn ovr and adjacent to the mountain areas, and along the
frontal boundary.  There is expected to be a marginal risk of severe
weather over the southeast corner of the state in the vcnty of the
front.  Temps on Sat are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than
today over the southeast plains, with just slightly cooler temps ovr
the rest of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Long term wx pattern continues to look quite stable, and models
remain in good agreement for the next week or so.

Sunday continues to look relatively cool...or rather near
average...in a post-frontal upslope regime. Usual diurnal pattern
of storms should develop as storms build over the mts mid-day and
then gradually move off into the I-25 corridor by Sun evening.
CAPE is still respectable...1500-2000 j/kg...and with NW flow
aloft bulk shears will be in the 25-30kt range, so would not
be surprised to see a marginal risk assessment for the Plains
at some point. Hail to around an inch and some gusty winds and
heavy rain will be the main threats.

For Mon-Wed, the upper high will build over the 4-corners region,
and temps over the plains should gradually build back into the
mid 90s. There will still be some moisture trapped under the
ridge, so expect more afternoon and evening storms, but SVR threat
will be reduced with the lighter winds aloft and lower CAPE, and
storms will be more confined to the higher terrain.

Upper high will weaken a bit from late Wed through next weekend.
A short wave will track through the N Plains and Miss Valley,
leading to a push of cooler air into E CO. Should see high temps
drop back into the 80s, and a bit more widespread shower and storm
activity area-wide. A few of the storms could be on the strong
side, especially for the far Ern zones. But no significant wx
systems will affect our area, just fairly typical summer wx. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cool front will move south down the plains during the 13-15utc
time frame tomorrow morning. Gusty north winds will occur at kcos
and kpub in the morning shifting to easterly and then
southeasterly by mid afternoon. The best chance for thunder at
kcos and kpub will be in the late afternoon and evening hours
tomorrow. Overall...vfr conditions will predominate at kcos and
kpub next 24h.

kals will be vfr next 24h. There will be a slight chance of
thunder during the late afternoon.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250526
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Red flag warnings have been allowed to expire at 8pm. Relative
humidities are recovering as temperatures are dropping. Gusty
winds will continue as a weak front passes through northwestern
Colorado tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Upper level trough will continue to track across the northern
Rockies today. An associated cold front will enter the far northwest
portion of the CWA late this afternoon or early afternoon and slowly
push south finally stalling over central part of the forecast
area overnight. Northeast UT and northwest CO will see a slight
decrease in temperatures with the southern counties remaining hot
and even increasing a few degrees. Gradient relaxes as the upper
trough slides east Saturday expect less wind. Dryer airmass also
moves over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The north remains cooler and south warmer as the previously
mentioned cold front slowly fades away Sunday.

Ridge builds back into the region early next week warming
temperatures. Enough moisture remains over the San Juan Mtns to keep
isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. By mid week
moisture filters northward under the ridge and provides more
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms especially over the
southern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Weak front is slowly moving west to east across Northwest
Colorado. KEGE should see some gusty winds toward 12z from outflow
winds with the front. Otherwise, pretty quiet at TAF sites across
the region. Diurnally induced upslope/downslope winds will prevail
after the frontal passage as high pressure and drier air returns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cold front will move into the area from the northwest this
evening and southwest winds ahead of the front will increase.
This will combine with low afternoon humidities and critically dry
fuels to produce Red Flag conditions over northwest and west-
central Colorado and east- central Utah, which includes Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203 and Utah fire zone 490, from 2 PM to 8
PM. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and humidities will
rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Releases from area dams and management of water diversions will
likely add to flow in some rivers and streams. As a result,
waterways across the area will continue to run high, fast, and
cold through the coming weekend. Stay advised of the latest river
forecasts by visiting our website at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...CC/AS
HYDROLOGY...AS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250526
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Red flag warnings have been allowed to expire at 8pm. Relative
humidities are recovering as temperatures are dropping. Gusty
winds will continue as a weak front passes through northwestern
Colorado tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Upper level trough will continue to track across the northern
Rockies today. An associated cold front will enter the far northwest
portion of the CWA late this afternoon or early afternoon and slowly
push south finally stalling over central part of the forecast
area overnight. Northeast UT and northwest CO will see a slight
decrease in temperatures with the southern counties remaining hot
and even increasing a few degrees. Gradient relaxes as the upper
trough slides east Saturday expect less wind. Dryer airmass also
moves over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The north remains cooler and south warmer as the previously
mentioned cold front slowly fades away Sunday.

Ridge builds back into the region early next week warming
temperatures. Enough moisture remains over the San Juan Mtns to keep
isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. By mid week
moisture filters northward under the ridge and provides more
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms especially over the
southern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Weak front is slowly moving west to east across Northwest
Colorado. KEGE should see some gusty winds toward 12z from outflow
winds with the front. Otherwise, pretty quiet at TAF sites across
the region. Diurnally induced upslope/downslope winds will prevail
after the frontal passage as high pressure and drier air returns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cold front will move into the area from the northwest this
evening and southwest winds ahead of the front will increase.
This will combine with low afternoon humidities and critically dry
fuels to produce Red Flag conditions over northwest and west-
central Colorado and east- central Utah, which includes Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203 and Utah fire zone 490, from 2 PM to 8
PM. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and humidities will
rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Releases from area dams and management of water diversions will
likely add to flow in some rivers and streams. As a result,
waterways across the area will continue to run high, fast, and
cold through the coming weekend. Stay advised of the latest river
forecasts by visiting our website at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...CC/AS
HYDROLOGY...AS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 250242
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
842 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Tstms were confined to the far nern plains with a few over Jackson
county. Appears all of this activity will end before midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Mid-level moisture entrained under the upper ridge has led to
another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains
and foothills, moving out over the plains. Initial showers have
made it out over the Palmer Divide and the Cheyenne Ridge with
additional shower activity still developing over the Front Range
mountains and foothills. This should continue through the late
afternoon and early evening with showers producing brief moderate
rain and gusty winds.

A weak cold front will move in overnight, bringing cooler
temperatures to the plains through tomorrow afternoon. Some mid-
level moisture will still be streaming over the state from the
south, which will fuel afternoon shower development over the
mountains. On the plains, the cooler temperatures should keep the
airmass stable enough to cap afternoon shower development. An
upper trough over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon will be
moving onto the northern plains by tomorrow afternoon, but it
appears it will be too far north to have any impact on Colorado
weather, other than possibly bringing drier air over Nevada and
Utah this afternoon over the region. For the time being, the
mountains and Palmer Divide will be the only locations with
afternoon showers forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A flat upper ridge is over the CWA Saturday night into Sunday
night with 30-40 knot southwesterly flow aloft. By Monday morning
...the upper ridge builds back to our southwest and west with west
and northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA. Weak downward synoptic
scale energy is progged through the five periods. The boundary
layer flow is dominated by south-southeasterly winds Saturday
night into Sunday night. There are easterlies progged on Monday
with normal drainage Monday night. For moisture, it is somewhat
limited, but there is some around through the periods.
Precipitable water values are in the 0.50 to 1.00 inch range for
the foothills and plains Saturday night and Sunday. Sunday night
through Monday night, values are in the 0.5 to 1.3 inch range.
There is some CAPE over the western and southern halves of the CWA
Saturday evening. Cape is a bit better for late day Sunday and
late day Monday and there is some over most of the CWA. Will go
with mainly 10-20% pops for the later day periods. For
temperatures, Sunday`s highs are 2-3 C warmer than Saturday`s.
Monday`s readings are close to Sunday`s. For the later day`s,
Tuesday through Friday, models keep the upper ridge just west of
Colorado, then it migrates eastward for Thursday and Friday.
Moisture increases Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 836 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

There is a wk bndry affecting the airport with winds shifting to
the nw. Expect winds will gradually shift back to a more ssw
direction by 10 pm. By sat morning a cdfnt will move across
between 12z and 14z with winds shifting to the north.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250218
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
818 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Red flag warnings have been allowed to expire at 8pm. Relative
humidities are recovering as temperatures are dropping. Gusty
winds will continue as a weak front passes through northwestern
Colorado tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Upper level trough will continue to track across the northern
Rockies today. An associated cold front will enter the far northwest
portion of the CWA late this afternoon or early afternoon and slowly
push south finally stalling over central part of the forecast
area overnight. Northeast UT and northwest CO will see a slight
decrease in temperatures with the southern counties remaining hot
and even increasing a few degrees. Gradient relaxes as the upper
trough slides east Saturday expect less wind. Dryer airmass also
moves over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The north remains cooler and south warmer as the previously
mentioned cold front slowly fades away Sunday.

Ridge builds back into the region early next week warming
temperatures. Enough moisture remains over the San Juan Mtns to keep
isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. By mid week
moisture filters northward under the ridge and provides more
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms especially over the
southern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. Some isolated to
scattered showers and storms are still possible with some gusty
winds and light rain at times through this evening. Showers should
end by midnight. A dry cold front will move through the region
reaching KVEL around 02z, KGJT KASE KEGE by 09z, then stalling
around the Highway 50 corridor around 12z and finally pushing
through KDRO and KTEX by 18z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cold front will move into the area from the northwest this
evening and southwest winds ahead of the front will increase.
This will combine with low afternoon humidities and critically dry
fuels to produce Red Flag conditions over northwest and west-
central Colorado and east- central Utah, which includes Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203 and Utah fire zone 490, from 2 PM to 8
PM. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and humidities will
rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Releases from area dams and management of water diversions will
likely add to flow in some rivers and streams. As a result,
waterways across the area will continue to run high, fast, and
cold through the coming weekend. Stay advised of the latest river
forecasts by visiting our website at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MDA
FIRE WEATHER...CC/AS
HYDROLOGY...AS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250043 AAA
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
643 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Corrected WWA section.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Upper level trough will continue to track across the northern
Rockies today. An associated cold front will enter the far northwest
portion of the CWA late this afternoon or early afternoon and slowly
push south finally stalling over central part of the forecast
area overnight. Northeast UT and northwest CO will see a slight
decrease in temperatures with the southern counties remaining hot
and even increasing a few degrees. Gradient relaxes as the upper
trough slides east Saturday expect less wind. Dryer airmass also
moves over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The north remains cooler and south warmer as the previously
mentioned cold front slowly fades away Sunday.

Ridge builds back into the region early next week warming
temperatures. Enough moisture remains over the San Juan Mtns to keep
isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. By mid week
moisture filters northward under the ridge and provides more
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms especially over the
southern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. Some isolated to
scattered showers and storms are still possible with some gusty
winds and light rain at times through this evening. Showers should
end by midnight. A dry cold front will move through the region
reaching KVEL around 02z, KGJT KASE KEGE by 09z, then stalling
around the Highway 50 corridor around 12z and finally pushing
through KDRO and KTEX by 18z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cold front will move into the area from the northwest this
evening and southwest winds ahead of the front will increase.
This will combine with low afternoon humidities and critically dry
fuels to produce Red Flag conditions over northwest and west-
central Colorado and east- central Utah, which includes Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203 and Utah fire zone 490, from 2 PM to 8
PM. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and humidities will
rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Releases from area dams and management of water diversions will
likely add to flow in some rivers and streams. As a result,
waterways across the area will continue to run high, fast, and
cold through the coming weekend. Stay advised of the latest river
forecasts by visiting our website at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203.

UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MDA
FIRE WEATHER...CC/AS
HYDROLOGY...AS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 242350
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
550 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Upper level trough will continue to track across the northern
Rockies today. An associated cold front will enter the far northwest
portion of the CWA late this afternoon or early afternoon and slowly
push south finally stalling over central part of the forecast
area overnight. Northeast UT and northwest CO will see a slight
decrease in temperatures with the southern counties remaining hot
and even increasing a few degrees. Gradient relaxes as the upper
trough slides east Saturday expect less wind. Dryer airmass also
moves over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The north remains cooler and south warmer as the previously
mentioned cold front slowly fades away Sunday.

Ridge builds back into the region early next week warming
temperatures. Enough moisture remains over the San Juan Mtns to keep
isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. By mid week
moisture filters northward under the ridge and provides more
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms especially over the
southern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. Some isolated to
scattered showers and storms are still possible with some gusty
winds and light rain at times through this evening. Showers should
end by midnight. A dry cold front will move through the region
reaching KVEL around 02z, KGJT KASE KEGE by 09z, then stalling
around the Highway 50 corridor around 12z and finally pushing
through KDRO and KTEX by 18z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cold front will move into the area from the northwest this
evening and southwest winds ahead of the front will increase.
This will combine with low afternoon humidities and critically dry
fuels to produce Red Flag conditions over northwest and west-
central Colorado and east- central Utah, which includes Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203 and Utah fire zone 490, from 2 PM to 8
PM. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and humidities will
rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Releases from area dams and management of water diversions will
likely add to flow in some rivers and streams. As a result,
waterways across the area will continue to run high, fast, and
cold through the coming weekend. Stay advised of the latest river
forecasts by visiting our website at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203.

UT...&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MDA
FIRE WEATHER...CC/AS
HYDROLOGY...AS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 242350
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
550 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Upper level trough will continue to track across the northern
Rockies today. An associated cold front will enter the far northwest
portion of the CWA late this afternoon or early afternoon and slowly
push south finally stalling over central part of the forecast
area overnight. Northeast UT and northwest CO will see a slight
decrease in temperatures with the southern counties remaining hot
and even increasing a few degrees. Gradient relaxes as the upper
trough slides east Saturday expect less wind. Dryer airmass also
moves over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The north remains cooler and south warmer as the previously
mentioned cold front slowly fades away Sunday.

Ridge builds back into the region early next week warming
temperatures. Enough moisture remains over the San Juan Mtns to keep
isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. By mid week
moisture filters northward under the ridge and provides more
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms especially over the
southern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. Some isolated to
scattered showers and storms are still possible with some gusty
winds and light rain at times through this evening. Showers should
end by midnight. A dry cold front will move through the region
reaching KVEL around 02z, KGJT KASE KEGE by 09z, then stalling
around the Highway 50 corridor around 12z and finally pushing
through KDRO and KTEX by 18z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cold front will move into the area from the northwest this
evening and southwest winds ahead of the front will increase.
This will combine with low afternoon humidities and critically dry
fuels to produce Red Flag conditions over northwest and west-
central Colorado and east- central Utah, which includes Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203 and Utah fire zone 490, from 2 PM to 8
PM. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and humidities will
rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Releases from area dams and management of water diversions will
likely add to flow in some rivers and streams. As a result,
waterways across the area will continue to run high, fast, and
cold through the coming weekend. Stay advised of the latest river
forecasts by visiting our website at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203.

UT...&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MDA
FIRE WEATHER...CC/AS
HYDROLOGY...AS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 242147
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
347 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Mid-level moisture entrained under the upper ridge has led to
another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains
and foothills, moving out over the plains. Initial showers have
made it out over the Palmer Divide and the Cheyenne Ridge with
additional shower activity still developing over the Front Range
mountains and foothills. This should continue through the late
afternoon and early evening with showers producing brief moderate
rain and gusty winds.

A weak cold front will move in overnight, bringing cooler
temperatures to the plains through tomorrow afternoon. Some mid-
level moisture will still be streaming over the state from the
south, which will fuel afternoon shower development over the
mountains. On the plains, the cooler temperatures should keep the
airmass stable enough to cap afternoon shower development. An
upper trough over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon will be
moving onto the northern plains by tomorrow afternoon, but it
appears it will be too far north to have any impact on Colorado
weather, other than possibly bringing drier air over Nevada and
Utah this afternoon over the region. For the time being, the
mountains and Palmer Divide will be the only locations with
afternoon showers forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A flat upper ridge is over the CWA Saturday night into Sunday
night with 30-40 knot southwesterly flow aloft. By Monday morning
...the upper ridge builds back to our southwest and west with west
and northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA. Weak downward synoptic
scale energy is progged through the five periods. The boundary
layer flow is dominated by south-southeasterly winds Saturday
night into Sunday night. There are easterlies progged on Monday
with normal drainage Monday night. For moisture, it is somewhat
limited, but there is some around through the periods.
Precipitable water values are in the 0.50 to 1.00 inch range for
the foothills and plains Saturday night and Sunday. Sunday night
through Monday night, values are in the 0.5 to 1.3 inch range.
There is some CAPE over the western and southern halves of the CWA
Saturday evening. Cape is a bit better for late day Sunday and
late day Monday and there is some over most of the CWA. Will go
with mainly 10-20% pops for the later day periods. For
temperatures, Sunday`s highs are 2-3 C warmer than Saturday`s.
Monday`s readings are close to Sunday`s. For the later day`s,
Tuesday through Friday, models keep the upper ridge just west of
Colorado, then it migrates eastward for Thursday and Friday.
Moisture increases Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Shower activity has once again been concentrated over the Palmer
Divide and further north, over Larimer County. Denver area
airports will continue to have the possibility of showers for the
next couple hours, as shower activity is still present over the
foothills west of Denver. Showers have contained both moderate
rain and gusty outflow winds, which will continue to be the main
threat through the early evening.

Overnight, a weak cold front is expected to move in from the
north, arriving at KDEN around 4 AM MDT. Winds will shift to the
north, but little in the way of cloudiness is expected. The
airmass will be cooler and more stable tomorrow, so less
thunderstorms are expected around the Denver area.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Dankers




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242126
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
326 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

SPC shows a marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon and
evening across most of the southeast plains and eastern mtns. The
early afternoon mesoanalysis shows 2000-3000+ j/kg of CAPE ovr the
sern plains, but 0-6km shear is only about 15-20 kts.  Showers and
tstms have already developed ovr and nr the hyr trrn, and they are
forecast to move eastward acrs the sern plains this afternoon and
evening.  A couple or a few storms could become severe, with the
main threats being hail around 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts
around 60 mph.

The NAM and HRRR show pcpn chances decreasing after the evening
hours, but they do show some lingering isolated chances after
midnight.  May keep some isold pops in the forecast, but wl go with
dry conditions most areas late tonight.

On Sat, a front is forecast to move south through the sern plains in
the morning hours and the NAM shows some pcpn along that frontal
boundary.  Then in the afternoon hours, the front is expected to
hang up over the southeast corner of the state.  The forecast models
show pcpn ovr and adjacent to the mountain areas, and along the
frontal boundary.  There is expected to be a marginal risk of severe
weather over the southeast corner of the state in the vcnty of the
front.  Temps on Sat are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than
today over the southeast plains, with just slightly cooler temps ovr
the rest of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Long term wx pattern continues to look quite stable, and models
remain in good agreement for the next week or so.

Sunday continues to look relatively cool...or rather near
average...in a post-frontal upslope regime. Usual diurnal pattern
of storms should develop as storms build over the mts mid-day and
then gradually move off into the I-25 corridor by Sun evening.
CAPE is still respectable...1500-2000 j/kg...and with NW flow
aloft bulk shears will be in the 25-30kt range, so would not
be surprised to see a marginal risk assessment for the Plains
at some point. Hail to around an inch and some gusty winds and
heavy rain will be the main threats.

For Mon-Wed, the upper high will build over the 4-corners region,
and temps over the plains should gradually build back into the
mid 90s. There will still be some moisture trapped under the
ridge, so expect more afternoon and evening storms, but SVR threat
will be reduced with the lighter winds aloft and lower CAPE, and
storms will be more confined to the higher terrain.

Upper high will weaken a bit from late Wed through next weekend.
A short wave will track through the N Plains and Miss Valley,
leading to a push of cooler air into E CO. Should see high temps
drop back into the 80s, and a bit more widespread shower and storm
activity area-wide. A few of the storms could be on the strong
side, especially for the far Ern zones. But no significant wx
systems will affect our area, just fairly typical summer wx. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites
through the next 24 hrs. However, thunderstorms will be possible
in the vcnty of the forecast sites this evening, and heavy rain
could cause brief restrictions to the vsby at times. Sat morning a
cold front will move south through the southeast plains and will
have the potential to bring some gusty northerly winds to KCOS and
KPUB. The winds at KCOS and KPUB wl then become easterly for the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242126
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
326 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

SPC shows a marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon and
evening across most of the southeast plains and eastern mtns. The
early afternoon mesoanalysis shows 2000-3000+ j/kg of CAPE ovr the
sern plains, but 0-6km shear is only about 15-20 kts.  Showers and
tstms have already developed ovr and nr the hyr trrn, and they are
forecast to move eastward acrs the sern plains this afternoon and
evening.  A couple or a few storms could become severe, with the
main threats being hail around 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts
around 60 mph.

The NAM and HRRR show pcpn chances decreasing after the evening
hours, but they do show some lingering isolated chances after
midnight.  May keep some isold pops in the forecast, but wl go with
dry conditions most areas late tonight.

On Sat, a front is forecast to move south through the sern plains in
the morning hours and the NAM shows some pcpn along that frontal
boundary.  Then in the afternoon hours, the front is expected to
hang up over the southeast corner of the state.  The forecast models
show pcpn ovr and adjacent to the mountain areas, and along the
frontal boundary.  There is expected to be a marginal risk of severe
weather over the southeast corner of the state in the vcnty of the
front.  Temps on Sat are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than
today over the southeast plains, with just slightly cooler temps ovr
the rest of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Long term wx pattern continues to look quite stable, and models
remain in good agreement for the next week or so.

Sunday continues to look relatively cool...or rather near
average...in a post-frontal upslope regime. Usual diurnal pattern
of storms should develop as storms build over the mts mid-day and
then gradually move off into the I-25 corridor by Sun evening.
CAPE is still respectable...1500-2000 j/kg...and with NW flow
aloft bulk shears will be in the 25-30kt range, so would not
be surprised to see a marginal risk assessment for the Plains
at some point. Hail to around an inch and some gusty winds and
heavy rain will be the main threats.

For Mon-Wed, the upper high will build over the 4-corners region,
and temps over the plains should gradually build back into the
mid 90s. There will still be some moisture trapped under the
ridge, so expect more afternoon and evening storms, but SVR threat
will be reduced with the lighter winds aloft and lower CAPE, and
storms will be more confined to the higher terrain.

Upper high will weaken a bit from late Wed through next weekend.
A short wave will track through the N Plains and Miss Valley,
leading to a push of cooler air into E CO. Should see high temps
drop back into the 80s, and a bit more widespread shower and storm
activity area-wide. A few of the storms could be on the strong
side, especially for the far Ern zones. But no significant wx
systems will affect our area, just fairly typical summer wx. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites
through the next 24 hrs. However, thunderstorms will be possible
in the vcnty of the forecast sites this evening, and heavy rain
could cause brief restrictions to the vsby at times. Sat morning a
cold front will move south through the southeast plains and will
have the potential to bring some gusty northerly winds to KCOS and
KPUB. The winds at KCOS and KPUB wl then become easterly for the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241924
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
124 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Upper level trough will continue to track across the northern
Rockies today. An associated cold front will enter the far northwest
portion of the CWA late this afternoon or early afternoon and slowly
push south finally stalling over central part of the forecast
area overnight. Northeast UT and northwest CO will see a slight
decrease in temperatures with the southern counties remaining hot
and even increasing a few degrees. Gradient relaxes as the upper
trough slides east Saturday expect less wind. Dryer airmass also
moves over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The north remains cooler and south warmer as the previously
mentioned cold front slowly fades away Sunday.

Ridge builds back into the region early next week warming
temperatures. Enough moisture remains over the San Juan Mtns to keep
isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. By mid week
moisture filters northward under the ridge and provides more
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms especially over the
southern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours at
all TAF sites. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
again across western Colorado through about 02z, with the best
chance over the southern and central mountains. Still possible to
see isolated showers and thunderstorms in valleys as well in a
prefrontal pattern, but expecting wind more than precipitation at
this time. Dry cold front will reach KVEL around 01z and KGJT
KRIL KASE KEGE by 12z...then stalling around the Hwy 50 corridor.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cold front will move into the area from the northwest this
evening and southwest winds ahead of the front will increase.
This will combine with low afternoon humidities and critically dry
fuels to produce Red Flag conditions over northwest and west-
central Colorado and east- central Utah, which includes Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203 and Utah fire zone 490, from 2 PM to 8
PM. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and humidities will
rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Releases from area dams and management of water diversions will
likely add to flow in some rivers and streams. As a result,
waterways across the area will continue to run high, fast, and
cold through the coming weekend. Stay advised of the latest river
forecasts by visiting our website at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203.

UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ490.

$$

SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...CC/AS
HYDROLOGY...AS




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241723
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1123 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 441 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

...Another Round of Storms Today...

Satellite pictures this morning still show a lot of unstable air to
our west of eastern Utah and western Colorado, working eastward.
Models have another round of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms developing over the mountains and spreading east
across the plains.  Surface-based CAPEs look similar to yesterday,
generally 1,000-3,000 j/kg across southern Colorado, highest to the
east, lowest to the west.  Shear values today don`t look as
favorable for severe weather as yesterday.  0-6 km bulk shear values
are generally progged at 10-20 kts compared to 25-35 kts yesterday.
They briefly get a little higher across northern Teller and El Paso
counties, up to about 30 or 35 kts, so this will be an area to watch
for possible severe convection, generating large hail, damaging
winds, heavy rain and lightning.  Otherwise, there will be enough
CAPE out there for a few strong storms, produce small hail, locally
heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 441 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Saturday and Sunday...Nearly zonal flow expected across the region
for the weekend. An upper low tracking along the Montana and
US/Canadian border late Friday will push a cold front down into
eastern Colorado early Sat. This front will swing sfc winds around
to an easterly upslope direction through the remainder of Sat and
Sun, providing for slightly cooler max temps both days with highs in
the 80s for most areas, and near 90 F for the e plains. Look for
scattered pops along the higher terrain each aftn and eve, and
isolated storms for the e plains. Portions of the e plains may see
strong to severe storms Sat aftn with the frontal passage.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper high pressure ridge rebuilds
into the region, with the expected diurnal isolated mt convection.
Temps are forecast to climb back up into the mid 90s for the
plains, and 80s for the high valleys.

Thursday...Models indicate that another shortwave will cross the
Dakotas and Great Lakes region late Wed through Thu. This will
produce a cool surge that will push back into the eastern half of
Colorado, providing for enhanced pcpn chances and cooler max temps
starting Thu. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites through
the next 24 hrs. However, thunderstorms will be possible in the
vcnty of the forecast sites this afternoon and evening, and heavy
rain could cause brief restrictions to the vsby at times.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KBOU 241700
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1100 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

No changes to the forecast are necessary at this time. Mid-level
moisture will continue streaming over the state today, although it
is displaced a little bit eastward from the past couple days.
Still, showers are expected to develop over the mountains in the
next couple hours and then spread onto the plains later in the
afternoon and evening. Model soundings are showing only modest
instablility, depending on how much low level moisture remains in
place through the afternoon. Winds aloft are light to moderate and
out of the west, so organization of developing storms will be
weak. A few storms may approach severe limits with hail up to an
inch in diameter, but most storms will be weaker than that.
Locally moderate rainfall will be possible with some of the
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Broad high pressure aloft remains across much of the Southern U.S.
with a Westerly Flow aloft over Colorado which will become a bit
more Southwest during the day today. Water vapor imagery still
showing swath of higher moisture values across Arizona and New
Mexico and this will move into Colorado this afternoon. Airmass
will be slightly warmer today with expected high temperature
values 2-5 degrees warmer and readings back in the mid 90s across
the plains. Moisture values will be similar to Thursday. Severe
threat a bit lower today with less low level shear on the plains
and overall instability. Surface based capes will be 500-1000j/kg
over the Front Range and 1000-1500j/kg over the NE plains. Main
threat from storms will be gusty winds and lightning. Still could
be a few severe storms over the plains with damaging winds and
marginal large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Highest area
coverage of storms will be over mountains and higher terrain of
the foothills and Palmer Divide.

A surface cold front will drop southward from Wyoming later
tonight which will switch winds Northerly. Frontal boundary may
keep some light shower activity ongoing through much of the night
but overall coverage will be low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

On Saturday a upper level trough will move over the Northern
Rockies increasing winds and ushering in drier air. A cold front
will accompany this feature Saturday bringing cooler temperatures
with highs in the 80s on the plains and 60s to 70s in the
mountains. Flow behind the front will stabilize conditions on the
plains Saturday afternoon helping to keep the forecast free of
convection...however with upslope easterly flow have kept a slight
chance of afternoon storms over the higher terrain and Palmer
Divide.

For Sunday into Monday high pressure will build back in over the
four corners region during the day Sunday. This will help to
rebound temperatures into the lower 90s. Moisture will increase on
the plains with SSE flow. This will allow for increased chances of
thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon continuing into Monday on the
plains. Model soundings indicate the possibility of strong outflow
winds with the storms with smaller hail. Temperatures will once
again reach into the 90s for both Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday a quick moving shortwave will move over the region with
a trailing cold front by Tuesday evening. An influx of moisture
will aid in the formation of afternoon storms Tuesday. CAPE values
on the plains are 2000+ by 21z Tuesday with PW above 1" and strong
deep layer shear. This will create the environment for possible
severe storms on the plains Tuesday with brief heavy rain, strong
outflow winds and large hail. By Wednesday subsidence will move
in behind the front that could bring fog/low stratus to the
plains due to continued increased levels of moisture and clearing.
Models showing QPF for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday but
feature is still very disorganized so will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Local airports may have to deal with thunderstorms for a couple
hours this afternoon. Small hail and brief rain will be the
primary threats.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Dankers




000
FXUS65 KBOU 241700
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1100 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

No changes to the forecast are necessary at this time. Mid-level
moisture will continue streaming over the state today, although it
is displaced a little bit eastward from the past couple days.
Still, showers are expected to develop over the mountains in the
next couple hours and then spread onto the plains later in the
afternoon and evening. Model soundings are showing only modest
instablility, depending on how much low level moisture remains in
place through the afternoon. Winds aloft are light to moderate and
out of the west, so organization of developing storms will be
weak. A few storms may approach severe limits with hail up to an
inch in diameter, but most storms will be weaker than that.
Locally moderate rainfall will be possible with some of the
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Broad high pressure aloft remains across much of the Southern U.S.
with a Westerly Flow aloft over Colorado which will become a bit
more Southwest during the day today. Water vapor imagery still
showing swath of higher moisture values across Arizona and New
Mexico and this will move into Colorado this afternoon. Airmass
will be slightly warmer today with expected high temperature
values 2-5 degrees warmer and readings back in the mid 90s across
the plains. Moisture values will be similar to Thursday. Severe
threat a bit lower today with less low level shear on the plains
and overall instability. Surface based capes will be 500-1000j/kg
over the Front Range and 1000-1500j/kg over the NE plains. Main
threat from storms will be gusty winds and lightning. Still could
be a few severe storms over the plains with damaging winds and
marginal large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Highest area
coverage of storms will be over mountains and higher terrain of
the foothills and Palmer Divide.

A surface cold front will drop southward from Wyoming later
tonight which will switch winds Northerly. Frontal boundary may
keep some light shower activity ongoing through much of the night
but overall coverage will be low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

On Saturday a upper level trough will move over the Northern
Rockies increasing winds and ushering in drier air. A cold front
will accompany this feature Saturday bringing cooler temperatures
with highs in the 80s on the plains and 60s to 70s in the
mountains. Flow behind the front will stabilize conditions on the
plains Saturday afternoon helping to keep the forecast free of
convection...however with upslope easterly flow have kept a slight
chance of afternoon storms over the higher terrain and Palmer
Divide.

For Sunday into Monday high pressure will build back in over the
four corners region during the day Sunday. This will help to
rebound temperatures into the lower 90s. Moisture will increase on
the plains with SSE flow. This will allow for increased chances of
thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon continuing into Monday on the
plains. Model soundings indicate the possibility of strong outflow
winds with the storms with smaller hail. Temperatures will once
again reach into the 90s for both Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday a quick moving shortwave will move over the region with
a trailing cold front by Tuesday evening. An influx of moisture
will aid in the formation of afternoon storms Tuesday. CAPE values
on the plains are 2000+ by 21z Tuesday with PW above 1" and strong
deep layer shear. This will create the environment for possible
severe storms on the plains Tuesday with brief heavy rain, strong
outflow winds and large hail. By Wednesday subsidence will move
in behind the front that could bring fog/low stratus to the
plains due to continued increased levels of moisture and clearing.
Models showing QPF for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday but
feature is still very disorganized so will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Local airports may have to deal with thunderstorms for a couple
hours this afternoon. Small hail and brief rain will be the
primary threats.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Dankers




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241635
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1035 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A strong trough over the northern rockies will push much of the
moisture over the area to the east. Convection this afternoon and
early evening should focus mainly over the CO mountains east of a
line from Craig to Grand Junction to the Four Corners. The
trough`s cold front should begin moving into northeast Utah around
5 pm today. It should move across northwest CO and reach Routt
county and the Bookcliffs around midnight. Its southerly progress
will be rather slow and at this time most models show the front
not reaching Grand Junction until about 6 am Saturday morning and
Montrose about noon. The front appears to get caught up in the
San Juan mountains thereafter and have little influence over the
lower elevations of the four corners.

The increasing winds today with continued hot and dry conditions
required issuing a Red Flag Warning for portions of western CO and
eastern UT. See details in the fire weather section.

North of the San Juans will see about 3-5 degrees of cooling
Saturday with less wind as the pressure gradient relaxes.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

This weekend the north enjoys a cool down of 5-8 degrees while
the south will see little temperature change. Precipitable water
values remain around 0.5 inch over the eastern San Juan mountains
that may produce an isolated thunderstorm or two.

For the new week a broad ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin then
shifts subtly east later in the week. Deep subtropical moisture
begins to pool over the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts approaching
2 inch precip water values by Thursday. This moisture leaks into
the Four Corners beginning Tuesday then deepens to around 1.2
inches by next Thursday. Increasing showers and thunderstorms can
be expected starting Tuesday and favoring the south. But we are
not ready to use the M word yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours at
all TAF sites. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
again across western Colorado through about 02z, with the best
chance over the southern and central mountains. Still possible to
see isolated showers and thunderstorms in valleys as well in a
prefrontal pattern, but expecting wind more than precipitation at
this time. Dry cold front will reach KVEL around 01z and KGJT
KRIL KASE KEGE by 12z...then stalling around the Hwy 50 corridor.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cold front will approach the area from the northwest today and
southwest ahead of the front will increase. This will combine
with low afternoon humidities and critically dry fuels to produce
Red Flag conditions over northwest and west-central Colorado and
east-central Utah, which includes Colorado fire zones 200, 202
and 203 and Utah fire zone 490, from 2 PM to 8 PM. The afternoon
winds are expected to be strongest in the western portions of
the Colorado zones. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and
humidities will rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire
weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Hot temperatures will exacerbate the melting of the remaining
high elevation snowpack. Meanwhile, releases from area dams and
management of water diversions will likely add to flow in some
rivers and streams. As a result, waterways across the area will
continue to run high, fast, and cold through the coming weekend.
Stay advised of the latest river forecasts by visiting our website
at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ200-202-203.

UT...&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC
HYDROLOGY...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241041
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
441 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 441 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

...Another Round of Storms Today...

Satellite pictures this morning still show a lot of unstable air to
our west of eastern Utah and western Colorado, working eastward.
Models have another round of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms developing over the mountains and spreading east
across the plains.  Surface-based CAPEs look similar to yesterday,
generally 1,000-3,000 j/kg across southern Colorado, highest to the
east, lowest to the west.  Shear values today don`t look as
favorable for severe weather as yesterday.  0-6 km bulk shear values
are generally progged at 10-20 kts compared to 25-35 kts yesterday.
They briefly get a little higher across northern Teller and El Paso
counties, up to about 30 or 35 kts, so this will be an area to watch
for possible severe convection, generating large hail, damaging
winds, heavy rain and lightning.  Otherwise, there will be enough
CAPE out there for a few strong storms, produce small hail, locally
heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 441 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Saturday and Sunday...Nearly zonal flow expected across the region
for the weekend. An upper low tracking along the Montana and
US/Canadian border late Friday will push a cold front down into
eastern Colorado early Sat. This front will swing sfc winds around
to an easterly upslope direction through the remainder of Sat and
Sun, providing for slightly cooler max temps both days with highs in
the 80s for most areas, and near 90 F for the e plains. Look for
scattered pops along the higher terrain each aftn and eve, and
isolated storms for the e plains. Portions of the e plains may see
strong to severe storms Sat aftn with the frontal passage.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper high pressure ridge rebuilds
into the region, with the expected diurnal isolated mt convection.
Temps are forecast to climb back up into the mid 90s for the
plains, and 80s for the high valleys.

Thursday...Models indicate that another shortwave will cross the
Dakotas and Great Lakes region late Wed through Thu. This will
produce a cool surge that will push back into the eastern half of
Colorado, providing for enhanced pcpn chances and cooler max temps
starting Thu. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 441 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Another round of afternoon an evening showers and thunderstorms is
expected over the district.  Enough convective energy will be
available for a few strong storms producing hail, locally heavy
rain, gusty winds and lightning.  Conditions will generally be VFR
across the flight area today but will drop locally to MVFR, IFR or
LIFR as thunderstorms move through.  The first storms of the day
will probably develop over the mountains 17-18Z, prior to spreading
east across the plains through the afternoon and evening.  Most
storms will exit the area by 04z.  All 3 TAF sites will see a chance
for thunderstorms moving through the vicinity today, generally after
19-20Z.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241041
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
441 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 441 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

...Another Round of Storms Today...

Satellite pictures this morning still show a lot of unstable air to
our west of eastern Utah and western Colorado, working eastward.
Models have another round of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms developing over the mountains and spreading east
across the plains.  Surface-based CAPEs look similar to yesterday,
generally 1,000-3,000 j/kg across southern Colorado, highest to the
east, lowest to the west.  Shear values today don`t look as
favorable for severe weather as yesterday.  0-6 km bulk shear values
are generally progged at 10-20 kts compared to 25-35 kts yesterday.
They briefly get a little higher across northern Teller and El Paso
counties, up to about 30 or 35 kts, so this will be an area to watch
for possible severe convection, generating large hail, damaging
winds, heavy rain and lightning.  Otherwise, there will be enough
CAPE out there for a few strong storms, produce small hail, locally
heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 441 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Saturday and Sunday...Nearly zonal flow expected across the region
for the weekend. An upper low tracking along the Montana and
US/Canadian border late Friday will push a cold front down into
eastern Colorado early Sat. This front will swing sfc winds around
to an easterly upslope direction through the remainder of Sat and
Sun, providing for slightly cooler max temps both days with highs in
the 80s for most areas, and near 90 F for the e plains. Look for
scattered pops along the higher terrain each aftn and eve, and
isolated storms for the e plains. Portions of the e plains may see
strong to severe storms Sat aftn with the frontal passage.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper high pressure ridge rebuilds
into the region, with the expected diurnal isolated mt convection.
Temps are forecast to climb back up into the mid 90s for the
plains, and 80s for the high valleys.

Thursday...Models indicate that another shortwave will cross the
Dakotas and Great Lakes region late Wed through Thu. This will
produce a cool surge that will push back into the eastern half of
Colorado, providing for enhanced pcpn chances and cooler max temps
starting Thu. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 441 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Another round of afternoon an evening showers and thunderstorms is
expected over the district.  Enough convective energy will be
available for a few strong storms producing hail, locally heavy
rain, gusty winds and lightning.  Conditions will generally be VFR
across the flight area today but will drop locally to MVFR, IFR or
LIFR as thunderstorms move through.  The first storms of the day
will probably develop over the mountains 17-18Z, prior to spreading
east across the plains through the afternoon and evening.  Most
storms will exit the area by 04z.  All 3 TAF sites will see a chance
for thunderstorms moving through the vicinity today, generally after
19-20Z.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 240957
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
357 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A strong trough over the northern rockies will push much of the
moisture over the area to the east. Convection this afternoon and
early evening should focus mainly over the CO mountains east of a
line from Craig to Grand Junction to the Four Corners. The
trough`s cold front should begin moving into northeast Utah around
5 pm today. It should move across northwest CO and reach Routt
county and the Bookcliffs around midnight. Its southerly progress
will be rather slow and at this time most models show the front
not reaching Grand Junction until about 6 am Saturday morning and
Montrose about noon. The front appears to get caught up in the
San Juan mountains thereafter and have little influence over the
lower elevations of the four corners.

The increasing winds today with continued hot and dry conditions
required issuing a Red Flag Warning for portions of western CO and
eastern UT. See details in the fire weather section.

North of the San Juans will see about 3-5 degrees of cooling
Saturday with less wind as the pressure gradient relaxes.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

This weekend the north enjoys a cool down of 5-8 degrees while
the south will see little temperature change. Precipitable water
values remain around 0.5 inch over the eastern San Juan mountains
that may produce an isolated thunderstorm or two.

For the new week a broad ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin then
shifts subtly east later in the week. Deep subtropical moisture
begins to pool over the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts approaching
2 inch precip water values by Thursday. This moisture leaks into
the Four Corners beginning Tuesday then deepens to around 1.2
inches by next Thursday. Increasing showers and thunderstorms can
be expected starting Tuesday and favoring the south. But we are
not ready to use the M word yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours at
all TAF sites. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
again across western Colorado after 18z through about 02z, with
the best chance over the central mountains. Still possible to see
isolated showers and thunderstorms in valleys as well in a
prefrontal pattern, but expecting wind more than precipitation at
this time. Frontal passage to begin over northeast Utah about 00z
this evening and move southeast to the Colorado River by 12z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A cold front will approach the area from the northwest today and
southwest ahead of the front will increase. This will combine
with low afternoon humidities and critically dry fuels to produce
Red Flag conditions over northwest and west-central Colorado and
east-central Utah, which includes Colorado fire zones 200, 202
and 203 and Utah fire zone 490, from 2 PM to 8 PM. The afternoon
winds are expected to be strongest in the western portions of
the Colorado zones. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and
humidities will rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire
weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Hot temperatures will exacerbate the melting of the remaining
high elevation snowpack. Meanwhile, releases from area dams and
management of water diversions will likely add to flow in some
rivers and streams. As a result, waterways across the area will
continue to run high, fast, and cold through the coming weekend.
Stay advised of the latest river forecasts by visiting our website
at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ200-202-203.

UT...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for UTZ490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC
HYDROLOGY...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240946
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
346 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Broad high pressure aloft remains across much of the Southern U.S.
with a Westerly Flow aloft over Colorado which will become a bit
more Southwest during the day today. Water vapor imagery still
showing swath of higher moisture values across Arizona and New
Mexico and this will move into Colorado this afternoon. Airmass
will be slightly warmer today with expected high temperature
values 2-5 degrees warmer and readings back in the mid 90s across
the plains. Moisture values will be similar to Thursday. Severe
threat a bit lower today with less low level shear on the plains
and overall instability. Surface based capes will be 500-1000j/kg
over the Front Range and 1000-1500j/kg over the NE plains. Main
threat from storms will be gusty winds and lightning. Still could
be a few severe storms over the plains with damaging winds and
marginal large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Highest area
coverage of storms will be over mountains and higher terrain of
the foothills and Palmer Divide.

A surface cold front will drop southward from Wyoming later
tonight which will switch winds Northerly. Frontal boundary may
keep some light shower activity ongoing through much of the night
but overall coverage will be low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

On Saturday a upper level trough will move over the Northern
Rockies increasing winds and ushering in drier air. A cold front
will accompany this feature Saturday bringing cooler temperatures
with highs in the 80s on the plains and 60s to 70s in the
mountains. Flow behind the front will stabilize conditions on the
plains Saturday afternoon helping to keep the forecast free of
convection...however with upslope easterly flow have kept a slight
chance of afternoon storms over the higher terrain and Palmer
Divide.

For Sunday into Monday high pressure will build back in over the
four corners region during the day Sunday. This will help to
rebound temperatures into the lower 90s. Moisture will increase on
the plains with SSE flow. This will allow for increased chances of
thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon continuing into Monday on the
plains. Model soundings indicate the possibility of strong outflow
winds with the storms with smaller hail. Temperatures will once
again reach into the 90s for both Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday a quick moving shortwave will move over the region with
a trailing cold front by Tuesday evening. An influx of moisture
will aid in the formation of afternoon storms Tuesday. CAPE values
on the plains are 2000+ by 21z Tuesday with PW above 1" and strong
deep layer shear. This will create the environment for possible
severe storms on the plains Tuesday with brief heavy rain, strong
outflow winds and large hail. By Wednesday subsidence will move
in behind the front that could bring fog/low stratus to the
plains due to continued increased levels of moisture and clearing.
Models showing QPF for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday but
feature is still very disorganized so will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon/early evening at local terminals. Again, main threat
will be gusty and variable winds 25-35kt. Best threat for storms will
be between 20-24z. A weak cold front will move across terminals
between 09z-12z early Saturday morning as winds shift Northerly.
Not expecting any low clouds behind this front as low levels still
rather dry.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Entrekin




000
FXUS65 KGJT 240545
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1145 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

Updated aviation and fire weather sections

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Best storms this afternoon were moving just right of the mean
0-6km flow and producing small hail. Most storms are expected to
end with sunset but there is still sufficient moisture and
instability for isolated nocturnal storms north of the I-70
corridor.

Friday deeper moisture erodes from west to east through the day
under strengthening SW flow. Most thunderstorms will be limited to
the eastern mountains closer to the Continental Divide. Breezy, hot,
and dry conditions are expected elsewhere raising fire weather
concerns. See fire discussion below.

Friday night the cold front drops south to near the I-70 corridor by
midnight and into northern New Mexico by morning. This ushers in
less-hot and drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The north enjoys a cool down of 5-8 degrees while the south will see
little temperature change. Precipitable water values remain around
0.5 inch over the eastern San Juan mountains that may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two.

For the new week a broad ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin then
shifts subtly east later in the week. Deep subtropical moisture
begins to pool over the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts approaching
2 inch precip water values by Thursday. This moisture leaks into
the Four Corners beginning Tuesday then deepens to around 1.2
inches by next Thursday. Increasing showers and thunderstorms can
be expected starting Tuesday and favoring the south. But we are
not ready to use the M word yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours at
all TAF sites. Gusty winds still possible through the overnight
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again
across western Colorado, with the best chance over the central
mountains. Still possible to see iso showers and tstorms in
valleys as well in a prefrontal pattern, but expecting wind more
than precipitation at this time. Frontal passage is expected after
00z Friday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

An approaching cold front on Friday will strengthen southwest
gradient winds. This will combine with low afternoon humidities
and critical fuels to produce Red Flag conditions for Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203, from 2 PM to 8 PM as well as Utah
fire zone 490. The afternoon winds are expected to be strongest
in the western portions of those zones. Saturday...winds will
decrease somewhat and humidities will rise due to less hot
conditions. So critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Hot temperatures will exacerbate the melting of the remaining
high elevation snowpack. Meanwhile, releases from area dams and
management of water diversions will likely add to flow in some
rivers and streams. As a result, waterways across the area will
continue to run high, fast, and cold through the coming weekend.
Stay advised of the latest river forecasts by visiting our website
at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ200-202-203.

UT...&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 240545
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1145 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

Updated aviation and fire weather sections

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Best storms this afternoon were moving just right of the mean
0-6km flow and producing small hail. Most storms are expected to
end with sunset but there is still sufficient moisture and
instability for isolated nocturnal storms north of the I-70
corridor.

Friday deeper moisture erodes from west to east through the day
under strengthening SW flow. Most thunderstorms will be limited to
the eastern mountains closer to the Continental Divide. Breezy, hot,
and dry conditions are expected elsewhere raising fire weather
concerns. See fire discussion below.

Friday night the cold front drops south to near the I-70 corridor by
midnight and into northern New Mexico by morning. This ushers in
less-hot and drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The north enjoys a cool down of 5-8 degrees while the south will see
little temperature change. Precipitable water values remain around
0.5 inch over the eastern San Juan mountains that may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two.

For the new week a broad ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin then
shifts subtly east later in the week. Deep subtropical moisture
begins to pool over the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts approaching
2 inch precip water values by Thursday. This moisture leaks into
the Four Corners beginning Tuesday then deepens to around 1.2
inches by next Thursday. Increasing showers and thunderstorms can
be expected starting Tuesday and favoring the south. But we are
not ready to use the M word yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours at
all TAF sites. Gusty winds still possible through the overnight
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again
across western Colorado, with the best chance over the central
mountains. Still possible to see iso showers and tstorms in
valleys as well in a prefrontal pattern, but expecting wind more
than precipitation at this time. Frontal passage is expected after
00z Friday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

An approaching cold front on Friday will strengthen southwest
gradient winds. This will combine with low afternoon humidities
and critical fuels to produce Red Flag conditions for Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203, from 2 PM to 8 PM as well as Utah
fire zone 490. The afternoon winds are expected to be strongest
in the western portions of those zones. Saturday...winds will
decrease somewhat and humidities will rise due to less hot
conditions. So critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Hot temperatures will exacerbate the melting of the remaining
high elevation snowpack. Meanwhile, releases from area dams and
management of water diversions will likely add to flow in some
rivers and streams. As a result, waterways across the area will
continue to run high, fast, and cold through the coming weekend.
Stay advised of the latest river forecasts by visiting our website
at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ200-202-203.

UT...&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240539
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1139 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Updated forecast to drop watch for all but Baca County. Gust front
is through KSPD, but some redevelopment over nern NM may brush srn
portions of the county the next hour or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The current SPC outlook for severe weather has a slight risk from
extreme eastern El Paso and northeast Pueblo counties, then eastward
across Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers and Kiowa counties.  The early
afternoon meso analysis is showing CAPE values of 2000-3500 j/kg ovr
the far sern plains.  The latest NAM would suggest that the far
eastern areas will have the highest chances for a couple or a few
severe storms this evening.

In the evening hours there should be a chance for showers/tstms acrs
much of the forecast area.  There will be the potential for heavy
rain, especially in locations near the KS border. The HRRR suggests
a line of storms working its way eastward acrs the southeast plains,
and exiting to the east by around 04z. After 04z the HRRR shows the
potential for some additional, isolated convection over the sern
plains and mtns until the late night hours. The NAM shows decreasing
chances for pcpn after this evening, with all pcpn ending by late
night.

On Fri an upper level low wl move into nrn ID/wrn MT, and the upper
level flow over the forecast area wl be westerly, and a weak
disturbance is expected to move acrs nrn CO.  Showers/tstms will
again develop over the mountains, probably by late morning and will
increase in the afternoon hours and spread acrs the eastern plains
into the evening hours. With the flow aloft expected to be fairly
light on Fri, slow moving storms and the potential for heavy rain
will be the main threat. Temps on Fri are forecast to be quite warm,
with around 100 degrees ovr the sern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

No big changes to the extended portion of the forecast. Still looks
like typical conditions for early summer. Zonal or quasi-zonal
flow early in the period will slowly evolve as high pressure
builds from the south.

Weekend looks pretty comfortable as a cold front associated with a
short wave over the N Rockies-S Canada moves through early in
the day. H7 temps behind the front in the 10-12 deg C range, so
should see some decent cooling of conditions for SE CO, with highs
around 90 for the plains and lower 80s for the high valleys. Will
see showers and storms develop late in the day, and possible
MCS development over the SE Plains by Sat night. Pattern
continues on Sunday with another round of diurnally-driven
storms. Svr parameters do not look all that impressive, but could
see some strong storms, especially on Sunday when conditions are a
bit less stable.

Upper high will then build early next week, and temps should
slowly rebound to near average or slightly above average by Mon-
Tue. Will see round of storms each afternoon and evening,
especially over the mts/higher terrain. By the middle part of
next week, a stronger shortwave moving through the Great Lakes and
Miss Valley region could impact our area by bringing a surge of
cooler air into the Central Rockies. The GFS is a bit stronger
with this feature than the ECMWF, and would bring cooler
conditions and more widespread storms. Ensemble POPs are near or
slightly above climo, and look appropriate at this time. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Generally VFR conditions are anticipated at the KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB tafs sites during the next 24 hrs with another round of
primarily afternoon and evening thunderstorms Friday...capable of
generating locally heavy rainfall and brief restrictions to
visibility.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240359
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
959 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Updated forecast to drop watch for all but Baca County. Gust front
is through KSPD, but some redevelopment over nern NM may brush srn
portions of the county the next hour or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The current SPC outlook for severe weather has a slight risk from
extreme eastern El Paso and northeast Pueblo counties, then eastward
across Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers and Kiowa counties.  The early
afternoon meso analysis is showing CAPE values of 2000-3500 j/kg ovr
the far sern plains.  The latest NAM would suggest that the far
eastern areas will have the highest chances for a couple or a few
severe storms this evening.

In the evening hours there should be a chance for showers/tstms acrs
much of the forecast area.  There will be the potential for heavy
rain, especially in locations near the KS border. The HRRR suggests
a line of storms working its way eastward acrs the southeast plains,
and exiting to the east by around 04z. After 04z the HRRR shows the
potential for some additional, isolated convection over the sern
plains and mtns until the late night hours. The NAM shows decreasing
chances for pcpn after this evening, with all pcpn ending by late
night.

On Fri an upper level low wl move into nrn ID/wrn MT, and the upper
level flow over the forecast area wl be westerly, and a weak
disturbance is expected to move acrs nrn CO.  Showers/tstms will
again develop over the mountains, probably by late morning and will
increase in the afternoon hours and spread acrs the eastern plains
into the evening hours. With the flow aloft expected to be fairly
light on Fri, slow moving storms and the potential for heavy rain
will be the main threat. Temps on Fri are forecast to be quite warm,
with around 100 degrees ovr the sern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

No big changes to the extended portion of the forecast. Still looks
like typical conditions for early summer. Zonal or quasi-zonal
flow early in the period will slowly evolve as high pressure
builds from the south.

Weekend looks pretty comfortable as a cold front associated with a
short wave over the N Rockies-S Canada moves through early in
the day. H7 temps behind the front in the 10-12 deg C range, so
should see some decent cooling of conditions for SE CO, with highs
around 90 for the plains and lower 80s for the high valleys. Will
see showers and storms develop late in the day, and possible
MCS development over the SE Plains by Sat night. Pattern
continues on Sunday with another round of diurnally-driven
storms. Svr parameters do not look all that impressive, but could
see some strong storms, especially on Sunday when conditions are a
bit less stable.

Upper high will then build early next week, and temps should
slowly rebound to near average or slightly above average by Mon-
Tue. Will see round of storms each afternoon and evening,
especially over the mts/higher terrain. By the middle part of
next week, a stronger shortwave moving through the Great Lakes and
Miss Valley region could impact our area by bringing a surge of
cooler air into the Central Rockies. The GFS is a bit stronger
with this feature than the ECMWF, and would bring cooler
conditions and more widespread storms. Ensemble POPs are near or
slightly above climo, and look appropriate at this time. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites for the
next 24 hrs.  However thunderstorms may move acrs the forecast sites
this evening, and again on Fri afternoon and if they produce heavy
rain there is the possibility of brief restrictions to vsby.


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240217
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
817 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Line of sct storms was moving over the far ern plains and should
exit in the next hour. Meanwhile there was a line of storms over
wrn Jackson and nw Grand counties moving east. Looks like the mtn
storms will maintain themselves for a few more hours but should
fall apart before reaching the front range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Weak showers have been occurring over the mountains through this
afternoon with a few showers moving out of the Palmer and Cheyenne
Divides. Another convergence boundary has been quite evident along
a line from from Fort Morgan to Deer Trail. Higher dew points are
located east of the convergence boundary, and the focus of evening
convection will be out on the eastern plains. Showers and
thunderstorms over the urban corridor should be fairly limited
since dry air has mixed to the surface. Storms that form over the
eastern plains will have the potential to be quite strong.

For tomorrow the upper ridge will remain in place over the
southern U.S. with weak westerly flow aloft across Colorado.
Another surge of mid-level moisture is evident on satellite
pictures over southern Arizona. The pattern of the past several
days with showers developing over the mountains early in the
afternoon and then moving over the plains will continue through
tomorrow. High temperatures should again reach into the lower and
mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Convection will be ongoing across the eastern plains Friday
evening. Some storms may be able to produce strong outflow winds
and possible large hail as CAPE values are around 1200 J/kg. A
cold front will push into the area right around midnight with
northerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph across the northeastern
plains.

The upper trough passing over the Northern Rockies will drag in
drier air from the west and increase winds across the northern
mountains Saturday. This may elevate fire weather concerns over North
Park and surrounding high mountains. Otherwise temperatures will
be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Saturday, with readings in the
mid 80s over the plains and in the 60s to upper 70s in the high
country. Post frontal airmass will likely be too stable for storms
over the plains, but upslope flow will help spark convection over
the high mountains and foothills and possibly over the Palmer
Divide. Expect the convective activity in the afternoon and early
evening. diminishing quickly after sunset. However the GFS keeps
activity through the night and brings it east over the plains.
Will not follow this solution at this time as its the outlier,
slower with the trailing energy behind the upper trough.

The upper ridge over the Great Plains will build back over the
Four Corners region Sunday and Monday to bring warming
temperatures. Southeasterly winds will push moisture back into the
plains Sunday and allow for a chance of thunderstorms to return
to the plains Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday, a quick moving shortwave trough will pass over the
Northern Rockies and send down a cold front later on Tuesday.
Models have been showing an MCS developing near South Dakota and
into Nebraska, which may push in additional moisture into the area
Tuesday night for cooler temperatures and perhaps low clouds and
fog Wednesday. Will continue to monitor the development of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 809 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Winds have gone wsw and will be ssw overnight. Only concern would
be for convection over the mtns to send out a burst of gusty wly
winds between 10 pm and midnight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240217
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
817 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Line of sct storms was moving over the far ern plains and should
exit in the next hour. Meanwhile there was a line of storms over
wrn Jackson and nw Grand counties moving east. Looks like the mtn
storms will maintain themselves for a few more hours but should
fall apart before reaching the front range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Weak showers have been occurring over the mountains through this
afternoon with a few showers moving out of the Palmer and Cheyenne
Divides. Another convergence boundary has been quite evident along
a line from from Fort Morgan to Deer Trail. Higher dew points are
located east of the convergence boundary, and the focus of evening
convection will be out on the eastern plains. Showers and
thunderstorms over the urban corridor should be fairly limited
since dry air has mixed to the surface. Storms that form over the
eastern plains will have the potential to be quite strong.

For tomorrow the upper ridge will remain in place over the
southern U.S. with weak westerly flow aloft across Colorado.
Another surge of mid-level moisture is evident on satellite
pictures over southern Arizona. The pattern of the past several
days with showers developing over the mountains early in the
afternoon and then moving over the plains will continue through
tomorrow. High temperatures should again reach into the lower and
mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Convection will be ongoing across the eastern plains Friday
evening. Some storms may be able to produce strong outflow winds
and possible large hail as CAPE values are around 1200 J/kg. A
cold front will push into the area right around midnight with
northerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph across the northeastern
plains.

The upper trough passing over the Northern Rockies will drag in
drier air from the west and increase winds across the northern
mountains Saturday. This may elevate fire weather concerns over North
Park and surrounding high mountains. Otherwise temperatures will
be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Saturday, with readings in the
mid 80s over the plains and in the 60s to upper 70s in the high
country. Post frontal airmass will likely be too stable for storms
over the plains, but upslope flow will help spark convection over
the high mountains and foothills and possibly over the Palmer
Divide. Expect the convective activity in the afternoon and early
evening. diminishing quickly after sunset. However the GFS keeps
activity through the night and brings it east over the plains.
Will not follow this solution at this time as its the outlier,
slower with the trailing energy behind the upper trough.

The upper ridge over the Great Plains will build back over the
Four Corners region Sunday and Monday to bring warming
temperatures. Southeasterly winds will push moisture back into the
plains Sunday and allow for a chance of thunderstorms to return
to the plains Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday, a quick moving shortwave trough will pass over the
Northern Rockies and send down a cold front later on Tuesday.
Models have been showing an MCS developing near South Dakota and
into Nebraska, which may push in additional moisture into the area
Tuesday night for cooler temperatures and perhaps low clouds and
fog Wednesday. Will continue to monitor the development of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 809 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Winds have gone wsw and will be ssw overnight. Only concern would
be for convection over the mtns to send out a burst of gusty wly
winds between 10 pm and midnight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240217
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
817 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Line of sct storms was moving over the far ern plains and should
exit in the next hour. Meanwhile there was a line of storms over
wrn Jackson and nw Grand counties moving east. Looks like the mtn
storms will maintain themselves for a few more hours but should
fall apart before reaching the front range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Weak showers have been occurring over the mountains through this
afternoon with a few showers moving out of the Palmer and Cheyenne
Divides. Another convergence boundary has been quite evident along
a line from from Fort Morgan to Deer Trail. Higher dew points are
located east of the convergence boundary, and the focus of evening
convection will be out on the eastern plains. Showers and
thunderstorms over the urban corridor should be fairly limited
since dry air has mixed to the surface. Storms that form over the
eastern plains will have the potential to be quite strong.

For tomorrow the upper ridge will remain in place over the
southern U.S. with weak westerly flow aloft across Colorado.
Another surge of mid-level moisture is evident on satellite
pictures over southern Arizona. The pattern of the past several
days with showers developing over the mountains early in the
afternoon and then moving over the plains will continue through
tomorrow. High temperatures should again reach into the lower and
mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Convection will be ongoing across the eastern plains Friday
evening. Some storms may be able to produce strong outflow winds
and possible large hail as CAPE values are around 1200 J/kg. A
cold front will push into the area right around midnight with
northerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph across the northeastern
plains.

The upper trough passing over the Northern Rockies will drag in
drier air from the west and increase winds across the northern
mountains Saturday. This may elevate fire weather concerns over North
Park and surrounding high mountains. Otherwise temperatures will
be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Saturday, with readings in the
mid 80s over the plains and in the 60s to upper 70s in the high
country. Post frontal airmass will likely be too stable for storms
over the plains, but upslope flow will help spark convection over
the high mountains and foothills and possibly over the Palmer
Divide. Expect the convective activity in the afternoon and early
evening. diminishing quickly after sunset. However the GFS keeps
activity through the night and brings it east over the plains.
Will not follow this solution at this time as its the outlier,
slower with the trailing energy behind the upper trough.

The upper ridge over the Great Plains will build back over the
Four Corners region Sunday and Monday to bring warming
temperatures. Southeasterly winds will push moisture back into the
plains Sunday and allow for a chance of thunderstorms to return
to the plains Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday, a quick moving shortwave trough will pass over the
Northern Rockies and send down a cold front later on Tuesday.
Models have been showing an MCS developing near South Dakota and
into Nebraska, which may push in additional moisture into the area
Tuesday night for cooler temperatures and perhaps low clouds and
fog Wednesday. Will continue to monitor the development of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 809 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Winds have gone wsw and will be ssw overnight. Only concern would
be for convection over the mtns to send out a burst of gusty wly
winds between 10 pm and midnight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240217
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
817 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Line of sct storms was moving over the far ern plains and should
exit in the next hour. Meanwhile there was a line of storms over
wrn Jackson and nw Grand counties moving east. Looks like the mtn
storms will maintain themselves for a few more hours but should
fall apart before reaching the front range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Weak showers have been occurring over the mountains through this
afternoon with a few showers moving out of the Palmer and Cheyenne
Divides. Another convergence boundary has been quite evident along
a line from from Fort Morgan to Deer Trail. Higher dew points are
located east of the convergence boundary, and the focus of evening
convection will be out on the eastern plains. Showers and
thunderstorms over the urban corridor should be fairly limited
since dry air has mixed to the surface. Storms that form over the
eastern plains will have the potential to be quite strong.

For tomorrow the upper ridge will remain in place over the
southern U.S. with weak westerly flow aloft across Colorado.
Another surge of mid-level moisture is evident on satellite
pictures over southern Arizona. The pattern of the past several
days with showers developing over the mountains early in the
afternoon and then moving over the plains will continue through
tomorrow. High temperatures should again reach into the lower and
mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Convection will be ongoing across the eastern plains Friday
evening. Some storms may be able to produce strong outflow winds
and possible large hail as CAPE values are around 1200 J/kg. A
cold front will push into the area right around midnight with
northerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph across the northeastern
plains.

The upper trough passing over the Northern Rockies will drag in
drier air from the west and increase winds across the northern
mountains Saturday. This may elevate fire weather concerns over North
Park and surrounding high mountains. Otherwise temperatures will
be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Saturday, with readings in the
mid 80s over the plains and in the 60s to upper 70s in the high
country. Post frontal airmass will likely be too stable for storms
over the plains, but upslope flow will help spark convection over
the high mountains and foothills and possibly over the Palmer
Divide. Expect the convective activity in the afternoon and early
evening. diminishing quickly after sunset. However the GFS keeps
activity through the night and brings it east over the plains.
Will not follow this solution at this time as its the outlier,
slower with the trailing energy behind the upper trough.

The upper ridge over the Great Plains will build back over the
Four Corners region Sunday and Monday to bring warming
temperatures. Southeasterly winds will push moisture back into the
plains Sunday and allow for a chance of thunderstorms to return
to the plains Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday, a quick moving shortwave trough will pass over the
Northern Rockies and send down a cold front later on Tuesday.
Models have been showing an MCS developing near South Dakota and
into Nebraska, which may push in additional moisture into the area
Tuesday night for cooler temperatures and perhaps low clouds and
fog Wednesday. Will continue to monitor the development of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 809 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Winds have gone wsw and will be ssw overnight. Only concern would
be for convection over the mtns to send out a burst of gusty wly
winds between 10 pm and midnight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 232141
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
341 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Weak showers have been occurring over the mountains through this
afternoon with a few showers moving out of the Palmer and Cheyenne
Divides. Another convergence boundary has been quite evident along
a line from from Fort Morgan to Deer Trail. Higher dew points are
located east of the convergence boundary, and the focus of evening
convection will be out on the eastern plains. Showers and
thunderstorms over the urban corridor should be fairly limited
since dry air has mixed to the surface. Storms that form over the
eastern plains will have the potential to be quite strong.

For tomorrow the upper ridge will remain in place over the
southern U.S. with weak westerly flow aloft across Colorado.
Another surge of mid-level moisture is evident on satellite
pictures over southern Arizona. The pattern of the past several
days with showers developing over the mountains early in the
afternoon and then moving over the plains will continue through
tomorrow. High temperatures should again reach into the lower and
mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Convection will be ongoing across the eastern plains Friday
evening. Some storms may be able to produce strong outflow winds
and possible large hail as CAPE values are around 1200 J/kg. A
cold front will push into the area right around midnight with
northerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph across the northeastern
plains.

The upper trough passing over the Northern Rockies will drag in
drier air from the west and increase winds across the northern
mountains Saturday. This may elevate fire weather concerns over North
Park and surrounding high mountains. Otherwise temperatures will
be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Saturday, with readings in the
mid 80s over the plains and in the 60s to upper 70s in the high
country. Post frontal airmass will likely be too stable for storms
over the plains, but upslope flow will help spark convection over
the high mountains and foothills and possibly over the Palmer
Divide. Expect the convective activity in the afternoon and early
evening. diminishing quickly after sunset. However the GFS keeps
activity through the night and brings it east over the plains.
Will not follow this solution at this time as its the outlier,
slower with the trailing energy behind the upper trough.

The upper ridge over the Great Plains will build back over the
Four Corners region Sunday and Monday to bring warming
temperatures. Southeasterly winds will push moisture back into the
plains Sunday and allow for a chance of thunderstorms to return
to the plains Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday, a quick moving shortwave trough will pass over the
Northern Rockies and send down a cold front later on Tuesday.
Models have been showing an MCS developing near South Dakota and
into Nebraska, which may push in additional moisture into the area
Tuesday night for cooler temperatures and perhaps low clouds and
fog Wednesday. Will continue to monitor the development of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Dew points in the Denver area have dropped off due to mixing of
drier air aloft to the surface. The threat of showers over the
Denver area has diminished but can not be ruled out until after
the next band of showers moves out of the mountains . Any threat
of showers should be over by 7 PM. Gusty outflow winds and brief
heavy rain will be the main threats from any showers. No other
aviation impacts are expected overnight as winds return to typical
drainage overnight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Dankers




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232140
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Best storms this afternoon were moving just right of the mean
0-6km flow and producing small hail. Most storms are expected to
end with sunset but there is still sufficient moisture and
instability for isolated nocturnal storms north of the I-70
corridor.

Friday deeper moisture erodes from west to east through the day
under strengthening SW flow. Most thunderstorms will be limited to
the eastern mountains closer to the Continental Divide. Breezy, hot,
and dry conditions are expected elsewhere raising fire weather
concerns. See fire discussion below.

Friday night the cold front drops south to near the I-70 corridor by
midnight and into northern New Mexico by morning. This ushers in
less-hot and drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The north enjoys a cool down of 5-8 degrees while the south will see
little temperature change. Precipitable water values remain around
0.5 inch over the eastern San Juan mountains that may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two.

For the new week a broad ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin then
shifts subtly east later in the week. Deep subtropical moisture
begins to pool over the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts approaching
2 inch precip water values by Thursday. This moisture leaks into
the Four Corners beginning Tuesday then deepens to around 1.2
inches by next Thursday. Increasing showers and thunderstorms can
be expected starting Tuesday and favoring the south. But we are
not ready to use the M word yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions will dominate at all TAF sites. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms may continue overnight mainly north of the I-70
corridor. Friday afternoon...scattered showers and thunderstorms
will favor the mountains of western Colorado especially near the
Continental Divide. There is a 30 percent chance of brief afternoon
storm impacts at KASE KEGE with a 10 percent chance at KRIL KGJT
KMTJ KTEX. Mountain top winds of SW 15-20 kts will produce light
to moderate turbulence, stronger vicinity storms/showers.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

An approaching cold front on Friday will strengthen southwest
gradient winds. This will combine with low afternoon humidities
and critical fuels to produce Red Flag conditions for Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203, from 2 PM to 8 PM. The afternoon
winds are expected to be strongest in the western portions of
those zones. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and
humidities will rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire
weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Hot temperatures will exacerbate the melting of the remaining
high elevation snowpack. Meanwhile, releases from area dams and
management of water diversions will likely add to flow in some
rivers and streams. As a result, waterways across the area will
continue to run high, fast, and cold through the coming weekend.
Stay advised of the latest river forecasts by visiting our website
at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Friday for
     COZ200-202-203.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...EH+Joe
FIRE WEATHER...Joe
HYDROLOGY...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232137
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Best storms this afternoon were moving just right of the mean
0-6km flow and producing small hail. Most storms are expected to
end with sunset but there is still sufficient moisture and
instability for isolated nocturnal storms north of the I-70
corridor.

Friday deeper moisture erodes from west to east through the day
under strengthening SW flow. Most thunderstorms will be limited to
the eastern mountains closer to the Continental Divide. Breezy,
hot, and dry conditions are expected elsewhere raises fire weather
concerns. See fire discussion below.

Friday will see a bit of a pattern shift. The broad coast-to-coast
high pressure over the southern tier states will begin to be
shunted to the south and east. A strong closed low will move out
of the Pacific Northwest and move to western Montana by late
Friday afternoon. The will tighten the pressure gradient over the
area and add stronger winds to the mix of hot temperatures, low
humidity and dry fuels. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect over
much of northwest Colorado and portions of northeast Utah for
Friday. See the fire weather discussion below.

Friday night the cold front drops south to near the I-70 corridor
by midnight and into northern New Mexico by morning. This ushers
in less-hot and drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The north enjoys a cool-down of 5-8 degrees while the south will
see little temperature change. Precipitable water values remain
around 0.5 inch over the eastern San Juan mountains that may
produce an isolated thunderstorm or two.

For the new week a broad ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin then
shifts subtly east later in the week. Deep subtropical moisture
begins to pool over the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts approaching
2 inch precip water values by Thursday. This moisture leaks into
the Four Corners beginning Tuesday then deepens to around 1.2
inches by next Thursday. Increasing showers and thunderstorms can
be expected starting Tuesday and favoring the south. But we are
not ready to use the M word yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions will dominate at all TAF sites. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms may continue overnight mainly north of the I-70
corridor. Friday afternoon...scattered showers and thunderstorms
will favor the mountains of western Colorado especially near the
Continental Divide. There is a 30 percent chance of brief afternoon
storm impacts at KASE KEGE with a 10 percent chance at KRIL KGJT
KMTJ KTEX. Mountain top winds of SW 15-20 kts will produce light
to moderate turbulence, stronger vicinity storms/showers.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

An approaching cold front on Friday will strengthen southwest
gradient winds. This will combine with low afternoon humidities
and critical fuels to produce Red Flag conditions for Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203, from 2 PM to 8 PM. The afternoon
winds are expected to be strongest in the western portions of
those zones. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and
humidities will rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire
weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Hot temperatures will exacerbate the melting of the remaining
high elevation snowpack. Meanwhile, releases from area dams and
management of water diversions will likely add to flow in some
rivers and streams. As a result, waterways across the area will
continue to run high, fast, and cold through the coming weekend.
Stay advised of the latest river forecasts by visiting our website
at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Friday for
     COZ200-202-203.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...EH+Joe
FIRE WEATHER...Joe
HYDROLOGY...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232041
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
241 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The current SPC outlook for severe weather has a slight risk from
extreme eastern El Paso and northeast Pueblo counties, then eastward
across Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers and Kiowa counties.  The early
afternoon meso analysis is showing CAPE values of 2000-3500 j/kg ovr
the far sern plains.  The latest NAM would suggest that the far
eastern areas will have the highest chances for a couple or a few
severe storms this evening.

In the evening hours there should be a chance for showers/tstms acrs
much of the forecast area.  There will be the potential for heavy
rain, especially in locations near the KS border. The HRRR suggests
a line of storms working its way eastward acrs the southeast plains,
and exiting to the east by around 04z. After 04z the HRRR shows the
potential for some additional, isolated convection over the sern
plains and mtns until the late night hours. The NAM shows decreasing
chances for pcpn after this evening, with all pcpn ending by late
night.

On Fri an upper level low wl move into nrn ID/wrn MT, and the upper
level flow over the forecast area wl be westerly, and a weak
disturbance is expected to move acrs nrn CO.  Showers/tstms will
again develop over the mountains, probably by late morning and will
increase in the afternoon hours and spread acrs the eastern plains
into the evening hours. With the flow aloft expected to be fairly
light on Fri, slow moving storms and the potential for heavy rain
will be the main threat. Temps on Fri are forecast to be quite warm,
with around 100 degrees ovr the sern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

No big changes to the extended portion of the forecast. Still looks
like typical conditions for early summer. Zonal or quasi-zonal
flow early in the period will slowly evolve as high pressure
builds from the south.

Weekend looks pretty comfortable as a cold front associated with a
short wave over the N Rockies-S Canada moves through early in
the day. H7 temps behind the front in the 10-12 deg C range, so
should see some decent cooling of conditions for SE CO, with highs
around 90 for the plains and lower 80s for the high valleys. Will
see showers and storms develop late in the day, and possible
MCS development over the SE Plains by Sat night. Pattern
continues on Sunday with another round of diurnally-driven
storms. Svr parameters do not look all that impressive, but could
see some strong storms, especially on Sunday when conditions are a
bit less stable.

Upper high will then build early next week, and temps should
slowly rebound to near average or slightly above average by Mon-
Tue. Will see round of storms each afternoon and evening,
especially over the mts/higher terrain. By the middle part of
next week, a stronger shortwave moving through the Great Lakes and
Miss Valley region could impact our area by bringing a surge of
cooler air into the Central Rockies. The GFS is a bit stronger
with this feature than the ECMWF, and would bring cooler
conditions and more widespread storms. Ensemble POPs are near or
slightly above climo, and look appropriate at this time. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites for the
next 24 hrs.  However thunderstorms may move acrs the forecast sites
this evening, and again on Fri afternoon and if they produce heavy
rain there is the possibility of brief restrictions to vsby.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232041
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
241 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The current SPC outlook for severe weather has a slight risk from
extreme eastern El Paso and northeast Pueblo counties, then eastward
across Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers and Kiowa counties.  The early
afternoon meso analysis is showing CAPE values of 2000-3500 j/kg ovr
the far sern plains.  The latest NAM would suggest that the far
eastern areas will have the highest chances for a couple or a few
severe storms this evening.

In the evening hours there should be a chance for showers/tstms acrs
much of the forecast area.  There will be the potential for heavy
rain, especially in locations near the KS border. The HRRR suggests
a line of storms working its way eastward acrs the southeast plains,
and exiting to the east by around 04z. After 04z the HRRR shows the
potential for some additional, isolated convection over the sern
plains and mtns until the late night hours. The NAM shows decreasing
chances for pcpn after this evening, with all pcpn ending by late
night.

On Fri an upper level low wl move into nrn ID/wrn MT, and the upper
level flow over the forecast area wl be westerly, and a weak
disturbance is expected to move acrs nrn CO.  Showers/tstms will
again develop over the mountains, probably by late morning and will
increase in the afternoon hours and spread acrs the eastern plains
into the evening hours. With the flow aloft expected to be fairly
light on Fri, slow moving storms and the potential for heavy rain
will be the main threat. Temps on Fri are forecast to be quite warm,
with around 100 degrees ovr the sern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

No big changes to the extended portion of the forecast. Still looks
like typical conditions for early summer. Zonal or quasi-zonal
flow early in the period will slowly evolve as high pressure
builds from the south.

Weekend looks pretty comfortable as a cold front associated with a
short wave over the N Rockies-S Canada moves through early in
the day. H7 temps behind the front in the 10-12 deg C range, so
should see some decent cooling of conditions for SE CO, with highs
around 90 for the plains and lower 80s for the high valleys. Will
see showers and storms develop late in the day, and possible
MCS development over the SE Plains by Sat night. Pattern
continues on Sunday with another round of diurnally-driven
storms. Svr parameters do not look all that impressive, but could
see some strong storms, especially on Sunday when conditions are a
bit less stable.

Upper high will then build early next week, and temps should
slowly rebound to near average or slightly above average by Mon-
Tue. Will see round of storms each afternoon and evening,
especially over the mts/higher terrain. By the middle part of
next week, a stronger shortwave moving through the Great Lakes and
Miss Valley region could impact our area by bringing a surge of
cooler air into the Central Rockies. The GFS is a bit stronger
with this feature than the ECMWF, and would bring cooler
conditions and more widespread storms. Ensemble POPs are near or
slightly above climo, and look appropriate at this time. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites for the
next 24 hrs.  However thunderstorms may move acrs the forecast sites
this evening, and again on Fri afternoon and if they produce heavy
rain there is the possibility of brief restrictions to vsby.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231748
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

...Risk of Severe Weather Across the Plains Today...

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the Severe Weather Outlook
for the eastern plains today to the the Slight Risk category.
This looks good based on the latest data coming in this morning.
Satellite pictures this morning show a lot of mid level instability
just to the west, across western Colorado and Utah, all drifting
eastward.  This should put the instability over southern Colorado
during peak heating today.  Model forecasts have surface-based
CAPES going into the 1500-3000 j/kg range during the afternoon,
coupled with 0-6 km bulk shear values of generally 25-35 kts and
locally up to 40 kts.  While the shear values are not great, the
CAPE looks pretty good.  The combination of the 2 should be
sufficient for a few strong to severe storms across the eastern
mountains and plains today.  Primary storm threats today will
include 1 inch diameter hail, winds gusts around 60 mph, heavy rain
and lightning.  Slow storm movements in areas of cell mergers and
clusters could result in prolonged heavy rainfall.  Local rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible in just a few hours
time.  This could result in some flash flood concerns, especially if
the rain occurs over a burn scar, urban area, or other location
prone to flash flooding.  Right now, the area most susceptible to
severe weather and flash flooding today appears to be the plains
generally along and north of U.S. Highway 50.  In particular, all or
parts of El Paso, Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers
Counties look like the main targets.  However, other areas could
also see strong to severe storms today, especially if the expected
track of convection shifts just a little north or south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Active weather looks to continue through the extended period.
Operational models and ensembles indicate low spreads through the
next seven days which leads to higher forecast confidence. Where
showers and thunderstorms develop and track will depend highly on
embedded disturbances.

Friday and Saturday...an upper level storm system is forecast to
move out of the northern Rockies and across the northern plains.
This will force the upper ridge that has dominated the weather
over Colorado to the south, with westerly to southwesterly flow
spreading across the region. An upper level disturbance embedded
in the flow will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains Friday afternoon, and spread them eastward across the
plains Friday night. Modest instability and increasing shear may
allow for a few storms over the plains to become strong to severe
with gusty outflow winds and hail up to one inch possible.

By Saturday, a cold front is forecast to drop south across the
plains. This will bring slightly cooler air to the region. In
addition, models are indicating the possibility of strong to
severe thunderstorms developing along the cold front during the
afternoon. Moisture will pool in with the front leading to
elevated CAPE values and modest shear should allow for the strong
storm development, especially south of a Trinidad to Lamar line.

Temperatures will be hot on Friday with highs in the upper 90s for
the lower elevations. Behind the cold front, highs will be cooler
with upper 80s to lower 90s across the region.

Sunday into Tuesday...the high pressure over the desert southwest
is forecast to rebuild northward across the Rockies early next
week. This will lead to diurnally driven afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is forecast to be least on
Sunday with activity mostly confined to the mountains. By Monday,
flow aloft transitions northwesterly and several disturbances will
begin to work under the ridge. Expected increased showers and
thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, with initial development over
the mountains, then shifting eastward across the plains during the
evening and overnight hours. At this time, the severe threat looks
limited due to weak shear. Temperatures will warm back into the
90s across the region Sunday into Tuesday.

Wednesday...an upper level shortwave in the northwest flow aloft
will move southeast out of Montana into the central plains. This
will send a cold front south across Colorado by Wednesday morning.
Flow will turn easterly with increased moisture and the potential
for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon and
evening.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs. However, there will
be the potential for showers/tstms in the vcnty of the terminal
forecast sites this afternoon and evening, which could briefly
cause restrictions to vsby if heavy rain occurs.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231700
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1100 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

No changes to the forecast at this time. an upper level
disturbance is moving across south central Wyoming and northwest
Colorado late this morning, and should track over northeast
Colorado this afternoon. Weak showers have been moving over the
mountains in response to this impulse. A deepening surface lee
trough over the i-25 corridor should help increase southeasterly
flow at low levels through this afternoon. This should help keep
low level moisture in place over the plains through this evening.
Showers that move out of the mountains early this afternoon should
gain strength into the evening. Some storms may strengthen to
severe limits, once they reach the deeper moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Broad high pressure aloft continues across much of the Southern
portions of the United States with the center across Texas.
Resultant flow is light Westerly across Colorado. There is
lingering middle and high level moisture over far Eastern
Colorado and also across Western Colorado. The moisture over the
Western portions of Colorado is in advance of weak disturbance
nearing the 4 corners region. This progged to move over Colorado
this afternoon and evening. QG fields only showing neutral or
slight ascent with this trof.

Overall, a better chance for storms this afternoon with increased
moisture levels and stronger instability. Appears focus for
stronger storms will be East of the urban corridor this afternoon
once storms get into richer moisture and better low level shear
with surface winds increasing from the Southeast. Majority of
storms expected to produce gusty winds, heavy rain and small hail.
A few storms could be severe with marginal large hail especially
over the plains. Mid level flow does increase later in the day
with the trof with speeds increasing to 25-30kt at 500mb. SPC does
have portions of Northeast Colorado with a slight chance of severe
and appears this ok. Temperatures will be warmer today with
readings rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Storms ending from West to East during the evening hours as the
trof pushes East. Don`t expect many storms to linger past
midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Medium range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement out
to Wednesday next week. All show the strong upper ridge and its
hot airmass over the Great Plain on Friday weakening and shifting
east of Colorado by Saturday as a jet max rounds the bottom of a
shortwave trough projected to cross over the nrn Rocky Mtn region
during the day. Strong pressure falls across the northern Great
Plains in advance of this trough drives hot air northward acrs
east Colorado on Friday...which should return daytime temperatures
to the mid and upper 90s at lower elevations of the CWA. RH values
are predicted to fall to the teens on the plains by max heating
which would potentially elevate the rangeland fire danger.
Fortunately, south-southeasterly sfc wind speeds are expected to
remain under 15 kts throughout the day and then lessen with
nightfall. However, isolated to scattered mid to late afternoon
convection moving off the Front Range will potentially produce
lightning and gusty outflow winds. Will need to watch this closely
should a short fused red flag warning be necessary. Scattered
t-storms tracking acrs the eastern edge of the CWA during the
evening may tap into higher CAPE and moisture out there as
possibly produce locally heavy rainfall...hail and strong winds.
Shear appears weak...so potential for severe wx appears low.
Storms should exit the CWA not long after midnight.

On Saturday...models show a cold front moving south out of sern
Wyoming during the early morning hours as the shortwave trough
mentioned above passes to our north. GFS and NAM show gusty nly
winds on the plains in its wake durinmg the morning then a shift
to e-nely winds during the afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models also shoOver the Front Range an initial round of storms appears
to generate a stronger downslope floww the front dropping down
but with less wind and cooling. Post-frontal air appears to be
somewhat drier and with boundary layer cooling...chances for
convection...i.e t-storms... on the plains should be minimal.
Whereas upslope/upvalley flow up against the Front Range and acrs
South Park should manage to produce at least isolated t-storms in
these areas late afternoon and early evening. Highs on Friday will
generally be 10-12 degs lower than those the day before...however
areas west of the Continental Divide may see little change in
temperature even with the increase in cloud cover.
Over the Front Range an initial round of storms appears
to generate a stronger downslope flow
Sunday-Wednesday...the short wave trough and front move out
as another upper ridge gains strength over the Great Basin. Models
show this building ridge gradually migrating eastward with its
core passing over Colorado by Monday. Should see temperatures
creeping up slowly during this period...return to the low/mid-90s
on the plains by Monday. Sunday looks dry. Then moisture gradually
filters up into the Over the Front Range an initial round of storms appears
to generate a stronger downslope flowridge which should increase
t-storm chances for us Monday and Tuesday. In addition...a couple
of the models show a weak cold front slipping down over nern
Colorado late on Tuesday...while others not until Wednesday which
could enhance t-storm chances. For now will begin to lower
temperatures on Tuesday...but I suspect the better cooling won`t
occur until Wednesday with the flow aloft becoming more
northwesterly with modest retrogression of the upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A couple hours of showers and thunderstorms will move across the
Denver area between about 1 PM and 5 PM. Gusty winds, small hail
and brief rain will be possible. No other aviation impacts are
expected.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Dankers




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231700
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1100 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

No changes to the forecast at this time. an upper level
disturbance is moving across south central Wyoming and northwest
Colorado late this morning, and should track over northeast
Colorado this afternoon. Weak showers have been moving over the
mountains in response to this impulse. A deepening surface lee
trough over the i-25 corridor should help increase southeasterly
flow at low levels through this afternoon. This should help keep
low level moisture in place over the plains through this evening.
Showers that move out of the mountains early this afternoon should
gain strength into the evening. Some storms may strengthen to
severe limits, once they reach the deeper moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Broad high pressure aloft continues across much of the Southern
portions of the United States with the center across Texas.
Resultant flow is light Westerly across Colorado. There is
lingering middle and high level moisture over far Eastern
Colorado and also across Western Colorado. The moisture over the
Western portions of Colorado is in advance of weak disturbance
nearing the 4 corners region. This progged to move over Colorado
this afternoon and evening. QG fields only showing neutral or
slight ascent with this trof.

Overall, a better chance for storms this afternoon with increased
moisture levels and stronger instability. Appears focus for
stronger storms will be East of the urban corridor this afternoon
once storms get into richer moisture and better low level shear
with surface winds increasing from the Southeast. Majority of
storms expected to produce gusty winds, heavy rain and small hail.
A few storms could be severe with marginal large hail especially
over the plains. Mid level flow does increase later in the day
with the trof with speeds increasing to 25-30kt at 500mb. SPC does
have portions of Northeast Colorado with a slight chance of severe
and appears this ok. Temperatures will be warmer today with
readings rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Storms ending from West to East during the evening hours as the
trof pushes East. Don`t expect many storms to linger past
midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Medium range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement out
to Wednesday next week. All show the strong upper ridge and its
hot airmass over the Great Plain on Friday weakening and shifting
east of Colorado by Saturday as a jet max rounds the bottom of a
shortwave trough projected to cross over the nrn Rocky Mtn region
during the day. Strong pressure falls across the northern Great
Plains in advance of this trough drives hot air northward acrs
east Colorado on Friday...which should return daytime temperatures
to the mid and upper 90s at lower elevations of the CWA. RH values
are predicted to fall to the teens on the plains by max heating
which would potentially elevate the rangeland fire danger.
Fortunately, south-southeasterly sfc wind speeds are expected to
remain under 15 kts throughout the day and then lessen with
nightfall. However, isolated to scattered mid to late afternoon
convection moving off the Front Range will potentially produce
lightning and gusty outflow winds. Will need to watch this closely
should a short fused red flag warning be necessary. Scattered
t-storms tracking acrs the eastern edge of the CWA during the
evening may tap into higher CAPE and moisture out there as
possibly produce locally heavy rainfall...hail and strong winds.
Shear appears weak...so potential for severe wx appears low.
Storms should exit the CWA not long after midnight.

On Saturday...models show a cold front moving south out of sern
Wyoming during the early morning hours as the shortwave trough
mentioned above passes to our north. GFS and NAM show gusty nly
winds on the plains in its wake durinmg the morning then a shift
to e-nely winds during the afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models also shoOver the Front Range an initial round of storms appears
to generate a stronger downslope floww the front dropping down
but with less wind and cooling. Post-frontal air appears to be
somewhat drier and with boundary layer cooling...chances for
convection...i.e t-storms... on the plains should be minimal.
Whereas upslope/upvalley flow up against the Front Range and acrs
South Park should manage to produce at least isolated t-storms in
these areas late afternoon and early evening. Highs on Friday will
generally be 10-12 degs lower than those the day before...however
areas west of the Continental Divide may see little change in
temperature even with the increase in cloud cover.
Over the Front Range an initial round of storms appears
to generate a stronger downslope flow
Sunday-Wednesday...the short wave trough and front move out
as another upper ridge gains strength over the Great Basin. Models
show this building ridge gradually migrating eastward with its
core passing over Colorado by Monday. Should see temperatures
creeping up slowly during this period...return to the low/mid-90s
on the plains by Monday. Sunday looks dry. Then moisture gradually
filters up into the Over the Front Range an initial round of storms appears
to generate a stronger downslope flowridge which should increase
t-storm chances for us Monday and Tuesday. In addition...a couple
of the models show a weak cold front slipping down over nern
Colorado late on Tuesday...while others not until Wednesday which
could enhance t-storm chances. For now will begin to lower
temperatures on Tuesday...but I suspect the better cooling won`t
occur until Wednesday with the flow aloft becoming more
northwesterly with modest retrogression of the upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A couple hours of showers and thunderstorms will move across the
Denver area between about 1 PM and 5 PM. Gusty winds, small hail
and brief rain will be possible. No other aviation impacts are
expected.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Dankers




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231642
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1042 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Tweaked POPs up a bit over the central-northern forecast area
from around Green River to Steamboat Springs. Radar indicates
that showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to
stream across this portion of the forecast area during the next
couple of hours. However ground truth indicates that the showers
are quite light at this time. Expect an uptick in thunderstorms
and the amount of rain the showers will produce by early this
afternoon as daytime heating decreases stability.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Satellite imagery showed plenty of outflow boundaries spread
across the area overnight, seeding the lower atmosphere with
some moisture. Believe convection will fire over ridges again by
early afternoon, but without the minor shortwave trough that
enhanced yesterday`s development the coverage should be less and
fewer storms should move over the valleys. Temperatures should
hold steady at between 5 and 10 degrees above normal. Without
supporting dynamics the showers and thunderstorms should not
sustain much after sunset.

Friday will see a bit of a pattern shift. The broad coast-to-coast
high pressure over the southern tier states will begin to be
shunted to the south and east. A strong closed low will move out
of the Pacific Northwest and move to western Montana by late
Friday afternoon. The will tighten the pressure gradient over the
area and add stronger winds to the mix of hot temperatures, low
humidity and dry fuels. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect over
much of northwest Colorado and portions of northeast Utah for
Friday. See the fire weather section below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Heightened fire weather concerns will continue into Friday
evening. Later Friday night the closed low will continue moving
along the Canadian border and drag a cold front over NE Utah and
NW CO. The front will make slow progress to the south on Saturday
and appears to get hung up over the San Juan mountains through
Saturday.

Sunday through Wednesday the ridge rebounds over western U.S.
Moisture will be cycling around the high...which will be centered
over the four corners. This will keep a chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms in the forecast, focusing on high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions will dominate at all TAF sites. However showers and
thunderstorms will spread and intensify somewhat through the
afternoon and may impact a TAF site if one passes overhead. MVFR
will be possible with any heavier thunderstorms with the highest
probability, about 20 percent, in the vicinity of KASE...KEGE and
TEX. Conditions should improve shortly after 02z if not before due
to drier air filtering into the region Thursday night and as daytime
heating wanes. Gusty winds will once again be the biggest threat
with gusts to 50 mph possible with the strongest storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist across much of the
forecast area through Saturday as a flat ridge dominates the
area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to fire
each afternoon and may produce additional fire starts. These
storms will also produce gusty and erratic outflow winds.

On Friday, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for UT fire zone 490
and CO fire zones 200, 202 and 203, from noon to 8 PM. A low
pressure trough and its associated cool front will approach from
the northwest on Friday. The pressure gradient will tighten and
cause southwest winds to increase during the afternoon and early
evening favoring areas north and west of a line from Moab to Delta
to Craig. Areas with dry fuels from east central Utah and west
central Colorado northward may see critical fire weather
conditions develop Friday afternoon and evening.

Look for slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday behind the cool
front. A warming and drying trend is expected through early next
week as high pressure again builds over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Hot temperatures will exacerbate the melting of the remaining
high elevation snowpack. Meanwhile, releases from area dams and
management of water diversions will likely add to flow in some
rivers and streams. As a result, waterways across the area will
continue to run high, fast, and cold through the coming weekend.
Stay advised of the latest river forecasts by visiting our website
at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for COZ200-202-203.

UT...&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH




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