Home > Products > State Listing > Colorado Data
Latest:
 AFDPUB |  AFDGJT |  AFDBOU |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 021026
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
426 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHING WEST-TO-EAST ACRS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COLORADO ATTM IS ALIGNED WITH THE TAIL END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING S-SEWRD. PRECIPITATION
IS NO LONGER DETECTED WITHIN THE CWA AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE
MOST PART OVER NERN COLORADO. THIS CLEARING AND THE WET GROUND MAY
STILL RESULT IN PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY AS ALONG RIVER BOTTOMS SUCH AS
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM DENVER. LIGHT DRAINAGE
FLOW SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF FOG IN THE DENVER AREA...BUT SHOULD
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SOME MODELS INDICATE...COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG HERE TOO.

TODAY...CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH SINKING AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
ALOFT AT THE PRESENT ACQUIRES A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS MORNING
WHICH USHERS IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT. BUT A RELATIVELY STRONG
MAY SUN SHOULD COUNTERACT THIS COOLING AND HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
LEVELS NOT OBSERVED IN RECENT DAYS. THIS SAME HEATING TOGETHER WITH
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATE SFC BASE CAPES IN THE 400-1000
J/KG ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOSQUITO...TEN MILE AND SRN PORTIONS OF
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE NAM. CAPE
VALUES ON OTHER MODELS NO WHERE AS IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER THEY STILL
SHOW THIS AREA PRIMED FOR LOW-TOP/LOW INTENSITY T-STORM FORMATION
AFTER 18Z TODAY. BECAUSE OF NLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE ANY OF THIS CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WHILE STILL WELL BE AVERAGE...WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
WARMER WITH THE SUNSHINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S-
MID 40S IN THE MTNS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ON THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM RACING SOUTH ACRS
ERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS AT THE MOMENT. BASED ON ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS...THIS SYSTEM WITH ITS CLOUD COVER...GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS...COOLER AIR AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP...MAY ARRIVE SOONER THAN
WHAT MODELS INDICATE. MOST OF THEM SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM REACHING THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA BY 00Z TODAY. I BELIEVE
IT`LL ARRIVE SOONER...SAY BY 21Z AS THE NAM INDICATES. MODELS DO NOT
GENERATE ANY CAPE OR STEEP LAPSE RATES OUT THERE. SO WILL REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT THERE. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRUSH THE NERN
QUARTER OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP EXTENDING AS
FAR WEST AS THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT I WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT ENTIRELY.
SHOULD SEE THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM RACE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE MORNING WITH QUICK CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS ON THE PLAINS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED FROM TUE INTO WED
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION IN THE AFTN. ACROSS THE PLAINS IT
WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS HIGHS REACH THE LOWER TO MID
70S BY WED.

BY THU AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SSW
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTN WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTN CONVECTION.  ACROSS THE PLAINS IT
WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.

FOR FRI THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE AREA.  AT THE SFC LOW PRES
WILL INTENSIFY NR THE FOOTHILLS WITH INCREASING SSE FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN.
AFTN CAPES ARE FCST IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE SO COULD SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS DVLP ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZN ASSOCIATED WITH A DENVER
CYCLONE.  IN THE MTNS THERE WILL BE DECENT LAPSE RATES AND COMBINED
WITH AFTN HEATING WILL SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE
RANGE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA.  WITH THE FLOW RATHER BLOCKED UP OVER THE
US AND NOTHING BEHIND IT TO KICK IT OUT SUSPECT BOTH MODELS MAY BE
EJECTING THIS LOW ENE TOO FAST HOWEVER TIME WILL TELL.

AT THIS POINT STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL ACTIVE TSTM DAY ACROSS
NERN CO SAT AFTN AS MAIN SFC LOW WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS WITH A TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE NR
OR JUST EAST OF DENVER WHERE CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL RESIDE
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE.  OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE
ECMWF DOES SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING NE ACROSS THE MTNS BY AFTN SO
WILL KEEP IN A CHC OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.

ON SUN THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW NR THE FOUR CORNERS AT
12Z AND THEN HAS IT OVER CNTRL WYOMING BY LATE IN THE AFTN.  THIS
PATTERN WOULD BASICALLY DRY SLOT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE ONLY CHC
FOR PCPN POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ECNTRL CO ON SUN WITH ABUNDANT PCPN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS.  AS STATED ABV CONFIDENCE
IN EITHER OF THESE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW SO WILL JUST KEEP IN 20-30
POPS OVER THE RGN WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PATCHY SHALLOW FOG MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREA SUCH AS
DRAINAGES AND RIVER BOTTOMS DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS SHALLOW FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
AIRPORT OPERATIONS. WINDS TODAY FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...WITH A TENDENCY FOR NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SKIES WILL GO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. CLOUD BASES IN THE DENVER AREA SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT AGL WITH PRECIPITATION NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BAKER



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 021013
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP FINALLY COMES TO AN END TODAY THOUGH SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING THE
SAN JUANS AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. THE HRRR/RAP13 ARE REALLY DOWN PLAYING THIS
ACTIVITY AND A BIT MORE INCLINED TO FOLLOW THEIR OUTPUT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOWER THAN NORMAL BUT FINALLY...TOMORROW...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THOUGH SOME CU
WILL FORM OVER THE SAN JUANS WITH A PASSING SHOWER POSSIBLE. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND AND REACH NORMAL VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE ENTIRE U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN TO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA AND ANOTHER LOW COMES ASHORE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS SINCE THERE IS NOWHERE FOR IT TO GO. TEMPS
WILL JUMP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WED AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
START STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS
TO TIGHTEN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD TO SCTD.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BUT GFS
HIGHLIGHTING MOST PRECIP TO FALL OVER CENTRAL/SRN WYOMING WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FOR OUR CWA. SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS STORM.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM
ABOUT I-70 NORTHWARD. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE SO CONFIDENCE NOT THAT
HIGH THAT WHAT HAS BEEN DESCRIBED HERE WILL COME TO PASS. AT THIS
POINT IT`S SAFE TO SAY THAT ANOTHER UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING ONLY TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SAN JUANS BEING FAVORED THOUGH
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-70 MAY SEEM FORMATION. LOW TO MID LEVEL
CIGS N OF I-70 THIS MORNING WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY BUT S OF
I-70 THEY WILL LIKELY HANG ON. ONCE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
FORM...BRIEF MVFR TO VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO CIGS/VIS. AFTER
03Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPUB 020928
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD
THROUGH TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
DROP SWD TONIGHT...BRINGING A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE OT THE PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE MTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL
SURGE LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE ERN MTS AND RATON MESA
REGION. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME
PERIOD THIS EVENING. TEMPS TODAY WILL START TO REBOUND...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE PLAINS...AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND ZERO DEG C BY LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG FOR THE PLAINS...OR STILL
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...THEN
UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS LARGE UPPER LOW LUMBERS
OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWARD MAY BRING A FEW MORNING SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF THE PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/-TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ON
THE PLAINS AND 50S AND 60S VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...

DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER REGION. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY HIGH
ELEVATIONS -TSRA...HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. IT
WILL BE WARM. TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE 70S ON THE PLAINS...50S
AND 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY...

VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE M80S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F IN EL PASO COUNTY. 60S AND 70S
EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MTNS AS
SOME MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE
BROAD UPPER LOW WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIF.

FRIDAY...

MODELS IN RATHER VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING IN BRINGING
THIS LOW INLAND. IT IT FCST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE GREATER LAS VEGAS
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FCST TO BE
OVER THE STATE OF CO...AND A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE BROAD 500 MB LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THESE SHORT
WAVES...TSRA MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME...HOWEVER BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG STORMS WOULD BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS

SATURDAY...

CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER
THE COLORADO REGION BY SAT AFTERNOON. WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE CWA...BUT TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MTNS ON THIS DAY. FOR THE
PLAINS...THE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT. THE EC HAS A BIT OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WHICH KEEPS THE LLVL WINDS
BACKED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
HAS THE DRYLINE WELL INTO KS. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...WE COULD SEE A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ON THE PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN IT COULD BE GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY ON
THE PLAINS SAT.

SUNDAY...

MID LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE LOW FCST TO BE SOMEWHERE JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...EITHER OVER NE CO OR EASTERN WY...BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION SO EXPECT QUITE A
FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON THIS DAY. FLOW WILL BE
VERY WEAK ALOFT AS THE LOW IS RATHER VERY LARGE AND FLOW AT MID LVLS
IS WEAK. TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF INTO THE 60S AND 70S PLAINS.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

LOW EXPECTED TO FILL AND TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST. STATE
WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE OR TWO ROTATING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH CONTINUED SHOWERY PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SUMMARY...

WARM TEMPS FOR MID WEEK THEN LARGE LUMBERING UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY FRI AND MAYBE
SAT. TSRA INTENSITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LLVL MOISTURE WE
CAN ADVECT INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

UPPER LOW WILL BE PARKED OVER THE REGION LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AND
THIS SHOULD PROMOTE MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF A BIT.

AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE STEADY PRECIP WITH THIS UPPER LOW AS BEST
UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE TAF SITES BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
PIKES PEAK REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ084-085-087-
088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020609
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1209 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING AND ECHOES OVER
THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAK. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DEFORMATION WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DOMINATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION RELATED PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE LAS
VEGAS VICINITY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE LOW APPROACHES
SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS
THE LOW CENTER REACHING SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
OCCLUSION. MORE PRECIP SEEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY MIDNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER 09Z...BUT WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL ILS CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS NEAR SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THRU 03Z. THEN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020609
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1209 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING AND ECHOES OVER
THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAK. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DEFORMATION WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DOMINATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION RELATED PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE LAS
VEGAS VICINITY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE LOW APPROACHES
SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS
THE LOW CENTER REACHING SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
OCCLUSION. MORE PRECIP SEEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY MIDNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER 09Z...BUT WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL ILS CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS NEAR SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THRU 03Z. THEN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATE FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS
SLIGHTLY FOR BETTER CONDITIONS...AND BROUGHT IN LATEST OBS DATA.
MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...WEAKENING WAVE TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN TO SOME AREAS
THIS EVENING...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA VISIBLE ON SATELLITE PICTURES SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY FILL...WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...BRINGING AN END TO THE CURRENT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW
HAS BEEN FALLING OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS
TODAY...INCLUDING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AREAS
ALONG I-25 SOUTH OF PUEBLO.  WEB CAMS INDICATE STEADY SNOW IN THE LA
VETA AREA TODAY...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
AT TRINIDAD.  SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL REACH THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FOR
EVERYBODY ELSE...A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AFTER THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION LEAVES...THERE IS STILL THE WINTRY
COLD TO DEAL WITH.  ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DIPPING DOWN AROUND AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS.
SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE WARMTH EARLIER THIS MONTH...NEED TO WARN THOSE
AREAS WHERE A FREEZE MIGHT OCCUR.  RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE EL
PASO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES WILL BE THE PRIME TARGETS.
SO...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE HOISTED FOR THOSE AREAS FROM 9 PM
TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.  OTHER AREAS COULD GET
CLOSE...TOO...SO IF YOU DON`T WANT TO TAKE A CHANCE...COVER YOUR
PLANTS.

MONDAY...WARMER AND DRIER. ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AT LEAST THEY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY. AND...AS AN ADDED
BONUS...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
TODAY...MAINLY JUST AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A MORE TRANQUIL BUT STILL SOMEWHAT ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN
AT TIMES ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER
TERM WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

HAVE DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEN A PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FOR EXAMPLE...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES AS NOTED THIS WEEKEND TO THE 70S AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

LONGER RANGE COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON AMOUNT
OF IMPACT THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE TO THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 12Z/1ST ECMWF
SUGGESTING THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 00Z SATURDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
TIMES WITH THIS PATTERN.

THE 12Z/1ST GFS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING THAT THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AT 00Z SATURDAY WILL
SHIFT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NEXT SUNDAY PRODUCING
INCREASED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER
HAVE DEPICTED ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

KALS HAS AN MVFR CIG WHICH MAY STICK AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS
TONIGHT...OTRW VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. KPUB IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY MON MORNING
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. IN
GENERAL...KCOS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG EARLY MON MORNING BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ084-085-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020303
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
903 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATE FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS
SLIGHTLY FOR BETTER CONDITIONS...AND BROUGHT IN LATEST OBS DATA.
MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...WEAKENING WAVE TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN TO SOME AREAS
THIS EVENING...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA VISIBLE ON SATELLITE PICTURES SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY FILL...WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...BRINGING AN END TO THE CURRENT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW
HAS BEEN FALLING OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS
TODAY...INCLUDING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AREAS
ALONG I-25 SOUTH OF PUEBLO.  WEB CAMS INDICATE STEADY SNOW IN THE LA
VETA AREA TODAY...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
AT TRINIDAD.  SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL REACH THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FOR
EVERYBODY ELSE...A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AFTER THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION LEAVES...THERE IS STILL THE WINTRY
COLD TO DEAL WITH.  ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DIPPING DOWN AROUND AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS.
SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE WARMTH EARLIER THIS MONTH...NEED TO WARN THOSE
AREAS WHERE A FREEZE MIGHT OCCUR.  RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE EL
PASO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES WILL BE THE PRIME TARGETS.
SO...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE HOISTED FOR THOSE AREAS FROM 9 PM
TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.  OTHER AREAS COULD GET
CLOSE...TOO...SO IF YOU DON`T WANT TO TAKE A CHANCE...COVER YOUR
PLANTS.

MONDAY...WARMER AND DRIER. ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AT LEAST THEY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY. AND...AS AN ADDED
BONUS...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
TODAY...MAINLY JUST AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A MORE TRANQUIL BUT STILL SOMEWHAT ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN
AT TIMES ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER
TERM WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

HAVE DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEN A PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FOR EXAMPLE...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES AS NOTED THIS WEEKEND TO THE 70S AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

LONGER RANGE COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON AMOUNT
OF IMPACT THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE TO THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 12Z/1ST ECMWF
SUGGESTING THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 00Z SATURDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
TIMES WITH THIS PATTERN.

THE 12Z/1ST GFS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING THAT THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AT 00Z SATURDAY WILL
SHIFT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NEXT SUNDAY PRODUCING
INCREASED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER
HAVE DEPICTED ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
PRODUCING SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE MOST LIMITED AND WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW BECOMING VERY SPOTTY AFTER 12Z. ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL
SEE POSSIBLE SNOW AND OR RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
KCOS. MVFR/IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE
SHOWERS...JUST DEPENDING ON SHOWER INTENSITIES.  AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ084-085-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020217
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE FORECAST AREA IS NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...MAINLY OVER PARK COUNTY. THE CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN DECREASING
FROM THE NORTH. EVERY OBSERVATION AT DIA HAS REPORTED OVC CEILINGS
SINCE THE 2053Z OB ON 4/27/2016. THE OB AT 0050Z THIS EVENING...
5/2/2016...FINALLY SAW THE CEILING DECREASE TO BKN THERE. SO THAT
WAS OVER 4 DAYS OF OVC CEILINGS REPORTED/MEASURED ON EVERY
OBSERVATION AT THE BIG AIRPORT. NOT COMMON FOR HERE...EVEN DURING
MID SPRING TIME. DECREASED THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER A BIT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE REAL DATA IN MIND. WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN OVER SOME OF THE PLAINS...WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AND A MOIST GROUND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT STILL VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS DECREASING HOWEVER...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION
TO DECREASE AS WELL. AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
PUSH MOISTURE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PARK
COUNTY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
FALL. OVER THE PLAINS...READINGS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...LIKELY BETWEEN 25 AND 32 DEGREES. WITH SEVERAL RECENT
NIGHTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE RECENT SNOWY WEATHER
PATTERN...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING AS THE IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY ALREADY KNOWN. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH CLEARING SKIES IS WITH
FOG. IF IT DOES FORM...THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED FROM
GOING TO COLD.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARER SKIES OVER THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE WITH THE STRONG HIGH ANGLE MAY
SUN. MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THERE IS STILL ONE MORE WEAK WAVE NOTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN Q-G LIFT AND A LITTLE
BETTER SURGE WITH THIS SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
THEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL INTRODUCE A
FEW MORE POPS AND ALSO BRING THEM BACK A BIT WESTWARD TO AROUND
DENVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. MOST PRECIPITATION ABOVE 5500
FEET SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR WARMING TREND IN EARNEST. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ON THE PLAINS BOTH OF THOSE DAYS LIKELY REACHING 80F.

WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE...STILL EXPECT A SLOW
TRANSITION BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY...BUT EVEN THEN SOME MODELS HOLD THE UPPER LOW A BIT
FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY POPS FOR THE
PERIOD STARTING FRIDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF
THE STORM DOES DROP IN FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITHOUT SHEARING
OUT...THEN THERE WOULD STILL BE A CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
BUT THREAT OF THIS SEEMS TO BE DECREASING IN LATEST RUNS. FINALLY...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH PROGRESSION OF DRY LINE AS DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ON
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THAT WOULD RESULT
IN POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SO WILL BE ASSESSING
THAT THREAT FURTHER IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING AT DIA AT THIS TIME. THIS
WEAK LIGHT FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH MAYBE SOME WEAK
DRAINAGE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WILL LEAVE THE VCFG IN BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT FLOW AND MOIST
GROUND. MODELS ARE NOT BIG ON THE FOG HOWEVER. WINDS ON MONDAY
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE SHOULD BE NO
CEILING OR PRECIPITATION ISSUES EITHER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 012335
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
535 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING AND ECHOES OVER
THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAK. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DEFORMATION WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DOMINATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION RELATED PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE LAS
VEGAS VICINITY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE LOW APPROACHES
SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS
THE LOW CENTER REACHING SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
OCCLUSION. MORE PRECIP SEEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER 09Z...BUT WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL ILS CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS NEAR SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 012136
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING AND ECHOES OVER
THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAK. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DEFORMATION WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DOMINATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION RELATED PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE LAS
VEGAS VICINITY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE LOW APPROACHES
SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS
THE LOW CENTER REACHING SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
OCCLUSION. MORE PRECIP SEEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER TWO THIRDS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
06Z TONIGHT...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH 14Z
MONDAY AS LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURED AND ALL TAF SITES WILL BE OCCASIONALLY AT OR NEAR ILS
CIGS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 012134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...WEAKENING WAVE TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN TO SOME AREAS
THIS EVENING...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA VISIBLE ON SATELLITE PICTURES SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY FILL...WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...BRINGING AN END TO THE CURRENT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW
HAS BEEN FALLING OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS
TODAY...INCLUDING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AREAS
ALONG I-25 SOUTH OF PUEBLO.  WEB CAMS INDICATE STEADY SNOW IN THE LA
VETA AREA TODAY...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
AT TRINIDAD.  SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL REACH THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FOR
EVERYBODY ELSE...A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AFTER THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION LEAVES...THERE IS STILL THE WINTRY
COLD TO DEAL WITH.  ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DIPPING DOWN AROUND AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS.
SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE WARMTH EARLIER THIS MONTH...NEED TO WARN THOSE
AREAS WHERE A FREEZE MIGHT OCCUR.  RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE EL
PASO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES WILL BE THE PRIME TARGETS.
SO...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE HOISTED FOR THOSE AREAS FROM 9 PM
TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.  OTHER AREAS COULD GET
CLOSE...TOO...SO IF YOU DON`T WANT TO TAKE A CHANCE...COVER YOUR
PLANTS.

MONDAY...WARMER AND DRIER. ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AT LEAST THEY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY. AND...AS AN ADDED
BONUS...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
TODAY...MAINLY JUST AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A MORE TRANQUIL BUT STILL SOMEWHAT ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN
AT TIMES ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER
TERM WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

HAVE DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEN A PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FOR EXAMPLE...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES AS NOTED THIS WEEKEND TO THE 70S AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

LONGER RANGE COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON AMOUNT
OF IMPACT THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE TO THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 12Z/1ST ECMWF
SUGGESTING THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 00Z SATURDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
TIMES WITH THIS PATTERN.

THE 12Z/1ST GFS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING THAT THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AT 00Z SATURDAY WILL
SHIFT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NEXT SUNDAY PRODUCING
INCREASED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER
HAVE DEPICTED ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
PRODUCING SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE MOST LIMITED AND WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW BECOMING VERY SPOTTY AFTER 12Z. ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL
SEE POSSIBLE SNOW AND OR RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
KCOS. MVFR/IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE
SHOWERS...JUST DEPENDING ON SHOWER INTENSITIES.  AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ066-
068-073-075-080.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ084-085-087-088.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOU 012125
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT STILL VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS DECREASING HOWEVER...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION
TO DECREASE AS WELL. AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
PUSH MOISTURE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PARK
COUNTY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
FALL. OVER THE PLAINS...READINGS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...LIKELY BETWEEN 25 AND 32 DEGREES. WITH SEVERAL RECENT
NIGHTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE RECENT SNOWY WEATHER
PATTERN...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING AS THE IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY ALREADY KNOWN. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH CLEARING SKIES IS WITH
FOG. IF IT DOES FORM...THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED FROM
GOING TO COLD.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARER SKIES OVER THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE WITH THE STRONG HIGH ANGLE MAY
SUN. MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THERE IS STILL ONE MORE WEAK WAVE NOTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN Q-G LIFT AND A LITTLE
BETTER SURGE WITH THIS SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
THEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL INTRODUCE A
FEW MORE POPS AND ALSO BRING THEM BACK A BIT WESTWARD TO AROUND
DENVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. MOST PRECIPITATION ABOVE 5500
FEET SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR WARMING TREND IN EARNEST. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ON THE PLAINS BOTH OF THOSE DAYS LIKELY REACHING 80F.

WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE...STILL EXPECT A SLOW
TRANSITION BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY...BUT EVEN THEN SOME MODELS HOLD THE UPPER LOW A BIT
FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY POPS FOR THE
PERIOD STARTING FRIDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF
THE STORM DOES DROP IN FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITHOUT SHEARING
OUT...THEN THERE WOULD STILL BE A CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
BUT THREAT OF THIS SEEMS TO BE DECREASING IN LATEST RUNS. FINALLY...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH PROGRESSION OF DRY LINE AS DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ON
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THAT WOULD RESULT
IN POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SO WILL BE ASSESSING
THAT THREAT FURTHER IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN METRO AREAS. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME ALL
VFR AS WEATHER SYSTEMS PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL BE CLEARING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING IN SPEED
THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011741
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1141 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...MORE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...AS CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THIS MORNING. NW WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE
ALSO KEEPING THE BL ON THE WARM SIDE. WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE
PLAINS LOOKS PRETTY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT SO WILL CANCEL THE
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR NRN EL PASO AS TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S
OVER THE PALMER DVD.

UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN AZ THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EWD TODAY...MOVING THROUGH NRN NM TODAY AND THEN LIFTING
OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION WEAKENS.
CURRENTLY SEEING CLOUD TOPS COOL OVER NRN NM AS THE FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS MOVES NORTHWARD  INTO THE SW MTS. EVEN SEEING A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO OVER NM...AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME ISOLD TS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING
SOME APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCES IN QPF BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE
NAM A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE BLENDED QPF FROM A NUMBER OF
SOURCES FOR A CONSENSUS PRECIP FORECAST TODAY. THIS GIVES THE SRN
AND SW MTS SNOW TOTALS OF BETWEEN 4-7 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL ISSUE A SN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS WITH THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE...RUNNING THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THE SYSTEM WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND ONLY EXPECT LIGHT SN
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVE
WILL BE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. AREAS
FARTHER N...INCLUDING PIKES PEAK AND THE CENTRAL MTS...WILL SEE
ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW...AND THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING.

OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...JUST SOME SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THE SCT
SHSN OVER THE PALMER DVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS
NORTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND EVENTUALLY VEERS TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION LATER TODAY. THE UPSLOPE WILL PUT THE FOCUS ON SHOWERS
OVR THE ERN SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL FALL BACK TO 5000-6000 FEET TONIGHT. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER AS H7 TEMPS START TO BUILD A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE A BIT RAW...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AS N-NE WINDS GUST IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW FREEZING DUE
TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST OR FREEZE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING FROM N
TO S BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...

WEAK UPWARD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON THIS DAY. PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PLAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLD
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ON THE RATON MESA AND PALMER DVD.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S PLAINS AND
VALLEYS AND 40S MTNS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE S MOVING DISTURBANCE...THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE EC VERIFIES.

TUESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MTNS ON THIS DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY MTN SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY S OF HIGHWAY 50. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
60S MOST OF PLAINS WITH 50S VALLEYS...40S MTNS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THESE DAYS.
REGION WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S MOST OF PLAINS
WITH AN 80 OR TWO POSSIBLE.60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS A LARGE PACIFIC CLOSED
LOW MOVES ONSHORE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST AS THE EC MOVES IT ONSHORE AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND LIFT IT NORTH OF THE STATE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS GENERALLY KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SW
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWER/TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO L80S
PLAINS WITH 60S HIGHER TERRAIN. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
SPREADING SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE LOWEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AFTER
06Z...WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW BECOMING VERY SPOTTY AFTER 12Z.
ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL SEE SNOW AND OR RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KCOS. MVFR/IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...JUST DEPENDING ON SHOWER
INTENSITIES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ066-
068-073-075-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011721
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1121 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEB CAMS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS SITTING AROUND 6800
FEET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND TEMPERATURES RISING AT
LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND NORTH. WITH THE CORE OF
THE CLOSED LOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...NOT
EXPECTING SNOW LEVEL TO RISE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER THE VALLEYS...BUT FURTHER NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER HALVES OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH
14Z MONDAY AS LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011721
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1121 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEB CAMS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS SITTING AROUND 6800
FEET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND TEMPERATURES RISING AT
LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND NORTH. WITH THE CORE OF
THE CLOSED LOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...NOT
EXPECTING SNOW LEVEL TO RISE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER THE VALLEYS...BUT FURTHER NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER HALVES OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH
14Z MONDAY AS LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011556
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
956 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE ENHANCEMENT IN SNOW RATES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING
HAS TAPERED OFF...WHILE WEST OF THE DIVIDE THE SUN IS COMING OUT
STRONG IN MANY PLACES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER
FORECAST TO DECREASE WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND ALSO OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN.

RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE FASTER CLEARING TONIGHT
IN PRECIP AS WELL AS IN CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME COLDER THAN ALREADY FORECAST...WITH
READINGS IN THE MID-20S FOR THE PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS AS
A FEW MODELS STILL KEEP IN QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURGES AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE WEST AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF DENVER SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
THERE THROUGH 15Z. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH THROUGH THAT TIME IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF JEFFERSON/BOULDER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THIS MORNING...A WEAK DEFORMATION FIELD WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH
BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW HAVE CONTINUED
OVERNIGHT BUT MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL KEEP SCT COVERAGE
IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVELS
DESTABILIZE WITH AFTN HEATING AND SHOULD SEE PCPN COVERAGE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT THE CLOSED
SYSTEM OPENS UP...WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. BEST QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
OVER ARIZONA WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. WEAK
QG ASCENT IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COUPLED
SHALLOW CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN. OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS HOWEVER WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. COULD SEE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE MDLS SHOW PCPN
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH
AFTER 06Z. CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL INVOLVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING...SO WILL PROBABLY NEED TO LOOK INTO A FROST/FREEZE
ADVSY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT STAYS WELL SOUTH.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WITH AFTN HEATING
SHOULD SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS NERN
CO IT WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND WRN AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR MON NIGHT A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.

BY TUE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT.  ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.  ACROSS NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS FINALLY RISING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 60S.  FOR WED
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS COLORADO WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS AS WELL SO WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS READINGS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

ON THU TWO STG STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE US WITH ONE OVER
THE EAST AND ANOTHER ALONG THE WEST COAST.  IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SSW SOME MOISTURE MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU AFTN.  ACROSS THE PLAINS IT
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

BY FRI A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SWRN US WITH INCREASING SSW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MINOR
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SEE SOME WDLY SCT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER WEST THAN SHOWN BY MODELS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOIST SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  IF A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS ALLOWING FOR AN ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ZONE THEN COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BY LATE
AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS CAPES RISE TO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER SWRN UTAH/NWRN ARIZONA WITH
STG SLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A SFC LOW WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AS THE MODELS LIKELY HAVE THE
LOW TO FAR EAST ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRYLINE. AS A RESULT EXPECT
DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY SAT AFTN WITH CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL TO
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SNOWFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED LATE THIS MORNING AND BECOME MORE
SHOWERY...ALLOWING FOR VIS TO IMPROVE.  THE PCPN WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN. PCPN THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WL BE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AND WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL. OVERALL LGT-MDT
SHOWERS THIS EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT VSBYS AS MUCH...MAYBE 3-5
MILES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS WILL LIFT LATER THIS EVENING...
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER 06Z. NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...MAY BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY 23-01Z TIME FRAME. BEST
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE 21-02 TIME
FRAME...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER/KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011423
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEB CAMS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS SITTING AROUND 6800
FEET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND TEMPERATURES RISING AT
LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND NORTH. WITH THE CORE OF
THE CLOSED LOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...NOT
EXPECTING SNOW LEVEL TO RISE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER THE VALLEYS...BUT FURTHER NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDRO AND KMTJ AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTEX. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START DROPPING FOR
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND KGJT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011254
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
654 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURGES AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE WEST AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF DENVER SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
THERE THROUGH 15Z. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH THROUGH THAT TIME IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF JEFFERSON/BOULDER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THIS MORNING...A WEAK DEFORMATION FIELD WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH
BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW HAVE CONTINUED
OVERNIGHT BUT MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL KEEP SCT COVERAGE
IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVELS
DESTABILIZE WITH AFTN HEATING AND SHOULD SEE PCPN COVERAGE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT THE CLOSED
SYSTEM OPENS UP...WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. BEST QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
OVER ARIZONA WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. WEAK
QG ASCENT IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COUPLED
SHALLOW CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN. OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS HOWEVER WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. COULD SEE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE MDLS SHOW PCPN
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH
AFTER 06Z. CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL INVOLVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING...SO WILL PROBABLY NEED TO LOOK INTO A FROST/FREEZE
ADVSY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT STAYS WELL SOUTH.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WITH AFTN HEATING
SHOULD SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS NERN
CO IT WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND WRN AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR MON NIGHT A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.

BY TUE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT.  ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.  ACROSS NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS FINALLY RISING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 60S.  FOR WED
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS COLORADO WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS AS WELL SO WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS READINGS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

ON THU TWO STG STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE US WITH ONE OVER
THE EAST AND ANOTHER ALONG THE WEST COAST.  IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SSW SOME MOISTURE MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU AFTN.  ACROSS THE PLAINS IT
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

BY FRI A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SWRN US WITH INCREASING SSW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MINOR
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SEE SOME WDLY SCT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER WEST THAN SHOWN BY MODELS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOIST SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  IF A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS ALLOWING FOR AN ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ZONE THEN COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BY LATE
AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS CAPES RISE TO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER SWRN UTAH/NWRN ARIZONA WITH
STG SLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A SFC LOW WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AS THE MODELS LIKELY HAVE THE
LOW TO FAR EAST ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRYLINE. AS A RESULT EXPECT
DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY SAT AFTN WITH CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL TO
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016


BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE DROPPED THE CIGS
BLO 1K FT WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES THIS MORNING. STILL THINK IT WILL
IMPROVE AT BIT AFTER 15Z...THEN THE PCPN WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AGAIN. PCPN THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WL BE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AND WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL. OVERALL LGT-MDT
SHOWERS THIS EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT VSBYS AS MUCH...MAYBE 3-5
MILES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS WILL LIFT LATER THIS EVENING...
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER 06Z. NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...MAY BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY 23-01Z TIME FRAME. BEST
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE 21-02 TIME
FRAME...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011254
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
654 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURGES AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE WEST AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF DENVER SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
THERE THROUGH 15Z. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH THROUGH THAT TIME IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF JEFFERSON/BOULDER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THIS MORNING...A WEAK DEFORMATION FIELD WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH
BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW HAVE CONTINUED
OVERNIGHT BUT MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL KEEP SCT COVERAGE
IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVELS
DESTABILIZE WITH AFTN HEATING AND SHOULD SEE PCPN COVERAGE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT THE CLOSED
SYSTEM OPENS UP...WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. BEST QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
OVER ARIZONA WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. WEAK
QG ASCENT IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COUPLED
SHALLOW CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN. OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS HOWEVER WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. COULD SEE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE MDLS SHOW PCPN
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH
AFTER 06Z. CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL INVOLVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING...SO WILL PROBABLY NEED TO LOOK INTO A FROST/FREEZE
ADVSY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT STAYS WELL SOUTH.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WITH AFTN HEATING
SHOULD SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS NERN
CO IT WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND WRN AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR MON NIGHT A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.

BY TUE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT.  ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.  ACROSS NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS FINALLY RISING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 60S.  FOR WED
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS COLORADO WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS AS WELL SO WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS READINGS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

ON THU TWO STG STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE US WITH ONE OVER
THE EAST AND ANOTHER ALONG THE WEST COAST.  IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SSW SOME MOISTURE MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU AFTN.  ACROSS THE PLAINS IT
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

BY FRI A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SWRN US WITH INCREASING SSW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MINOR
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SEE SOME WDLY SCT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER WEST THAN SHOWN BY MODELS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOIST SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  IF A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS ALLOWING FOR AN ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ZONE THEN COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BY LATE
AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS CAPES RISE TO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER SWRN UTAH/NWRN ARIZONA WITH
STG SLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A SFC LOW WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AS THE MODELS LIKELY HAVE THE
LOW TO FAR EAST ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRYLINE. AS A RESULT EXPECT
DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY SAT AFTN WITH CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL TO
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016


BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE DROPPED THE CIGS
BLO 1K FT WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES THIS MORNING. STILL THINK IT WILL
IMPROVE AT BIT AFTER 15Z...THEN THE PCPN WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AGAIN. PCPN THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WL BE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AND WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL. OVERALL LGT-MDT
SHOWERS THIS EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT VSBYS AS MUCH...MAYBE 3-5
MILES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS WILL LIFT LATER THIS EVENING...
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER 06Z. NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...MAY BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY 23-01Z TIME FRAME. BEST
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY WILL BE IN THE 21-02 TIME
FRAME...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDRO AND KMTJ AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTEX. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START DROPPING FOR
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND KGJT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011011
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
411 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT MORE THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDRO AND KMTJ AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTEX. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START DROPPING FOR
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND KGJT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010943
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...MORE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...AS CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THIS MORNING. NW WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE
ALSO KEEPING THE BL ON THE WARM SIDE. WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE
PLAINS LOOKS PRETTY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT SO WILL CANCEL THE
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR NRN EL PASO AS TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S
OVER THE PALMER DVD.

UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN AZ THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EWD TODAY...MOVING THROUGH NRN NM TODAY AND THEN LIFTING
OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION WEAKENS.
CURRENTLY SEEING CLOUD TOPS COOL OVER NRN NM AS THE FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS MOVES NORTHWARD  INTO THE SW MTS. EVEN SEEING A LTG
STRIKE OR TWO OVER NM...AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME ISOLD TS
OVER THE SWRN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCES IN QPF BETWEEN  THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM
A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE BLENDED QPF FROM A NUMBER OF
SOURCES FOR A CONSENSUS PRECIP FORECAST TODAY. THIS GIVES THE SRN
AND SW MTS SNOW TOTALS OF BETWEEN 4-7 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL ISSUE A SN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS WITH THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE...RUNNING THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THE SYSTEM WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND ONLY EXPECT LIGHT SN
ACCUMS IF ANY OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVE WILL BE
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. AREAS FARTHER
N...INCLUDING PIKES PEAK AND THE CENTRAL MTS...WILL SEE ONE TO
FOUR INCHES OF SNOW...AND THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING.

OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...JUST SOME SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THE SCT
SHSN OVER THE PALMER DVD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS
NRLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND EVENTUALLY VEERS TO A MORE ERLY DIRECTION
LATER TODAY. THE UPSLOPE WILL PUT THE FOCUS ON SHOWERS OVR THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 7K FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL FALL
BACK TO 5000-6000 FEET TONIGHT. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AS H7 TEMPS START TO
BUILD A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT RAW...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING AS N-NE WINDS GUST IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE.
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW FREEZING DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST OR FREEZE HIGHLITES FOR
TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING FROM N TO S BY SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...

WEAK UPWARD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON THIS DAY. PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PLAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLD
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ON THE RATON MESA AND PALMER DVD.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S PLAINS AND
VALLEYS AND 40S MTNS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE S MOVG DISTURBANCE...THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE EC VERIFIES.

TUESDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MTNS ON THIS DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY MTN SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY S OF HIGHWAY 50. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
60S MOST OF PLAINS WITH 50S VALLEYS...40S MTNS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THESE DAYS.
REGION WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S MOST OF PLAINS
WITH AN 80 OR TWO POSSIBLE.60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS A LARGE PACIFIC CLOSED
LOW MOVES ONSHORE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST AS THE EC MOVES IT ONSHORE AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND LIFT IT NORTH OF THE STATE BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS GENERALLY KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SW
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWER/TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TRRN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO L80S PLAINS
WITH 60S HIGHER TERRAIN. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT
AT THE TAF SITES. AT KALS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SN THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLE. WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT.

AT KPUB...SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER THIS EVENING AND COULD
BECOME IFR TONIGHT...WITH SCT SHOWERS OR DZ...UNTIL CLEARING MONDAY
MORNING.

AT KCOS...INCREASING NRLY WINDS SHOULD HELP CUT DOWN PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL STILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR RA/SN...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...AS SNOW LEVELS FALL FROM AROUND 6500-7000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5500 FEET TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE
UNTIL MON MORNING.

WINDS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS FROM 25-35 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN AND VEER
TO THE EAST LATER TODAY. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ066-
068-073-075-080.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010920
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
320 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THIS MORNING...A WEAK DEFORMATION FIELD WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH
BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW HAVE CONTINUED
OVERNIGHT BUT MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL KEEP SCT COVERAGE
IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVELS
DESTABILIZE WITH AFTN HEATING AND SHOULD SEE PCPN COVERAGE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT THE CLOSED
SYSTEM OPENS UP...WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. BEST QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
OVER ARIZONA WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. WEAK
QG ASCENT IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COUPLED
SHALLOW CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN. OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS HOWEVER WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. COULD SEE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE MDLS SHOW PCPN
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH
AFTER 06Z. CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL INVOLVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING...SO WILL PROBABLY NEED TO LOOK INTO A FROST/FREEZE
ADVSY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT STAYS WELL SOUTH.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WITH AFTN HEATING
SHOULD SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS NERN
CO IT WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND WRN AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR MON NIGHT A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.

BY TUE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT.  ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.  ACROSS NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS FINALLY RISING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 60S.  FOR WED
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS COLORADO WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS AS WELL SO WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS READINGS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

ON THU TWO STG STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE US WITH ONE OVER
THE EAST AND ANOTHER ALONG THE WEST COAST.  IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SSW SOME MOISTURE MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU AFTN.  ACROSS THE PLAINS IT
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

BY FRI A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SWRN US WITH INCREASING SSW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MINOR
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SEE SOME WDLY SCT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER WEST THAN SHOWN BY MODELS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOIST SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  IF A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS ALLOWING FOR AN ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ZONE THEN COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BY LATE
AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS CAPES RISE TO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER SWRN UTAH/NWRN ARIZONA WITH
STG SLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A SFC LOW WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AS THE MODELS LIKELY HAVE THE
LOW TO FAR EAST ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRYLINE. AS A RESULT EXPECT
DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY SAT AFTN WITH CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL TO
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ILS RESTRICTIONS WITH OCNL MVFR RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. VERY LGT PCPN HAS NOT RESTRICTED VSBYS AT THE
AIRPORTS THIS THIS MORNING BUT CIGS AOB 3K FT AGL LIKELY THIS
MORNING. PCPN THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WL BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND
WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE THIS AFTN/EVNG. OVERALL LGT-MDT SHOWERS
SO DO NOT EXPECT VSBYS TO BE RESTRICT MUCH...MAYBE 3-5 MILES IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS WILL LIFT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER 06Z. NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...MAY BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY 23-01Z TIME FRAME. BEST
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 21-02 TIME FRAME...WITH
PRIMARILY MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010558
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1158 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LARGE AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL MEAN VERY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS ONE OLD LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW...NOW CENTERED
OVER WESTERN AZ...WITH FILL AND MOVE EAST AND OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS IS A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN SEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND MEANS THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF ABOUT A LINE FROM MOAB TO ASPEN...AND DECREASED CHANCES TO THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND FOUR CORNERS INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE STEADILY
DECREASING AND SLIDING EAST. WED AND THU RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
MIDWEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. THU AFTERNOON THE RIDGELINE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY AS THIS STRONG CLOSED
LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE WESTERN
U.S. ON SAT THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER EASTERN UT WITH RELATIVELY
WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY MIDNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO AS LOW AS 6000
FT BY EARLY SUNDAY THEN RISE TO AROUND 9000 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AFT
18Z CIGS WILL CROSS ILS BREAKPOINTS BE COMMON NEAR SHOWERS AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010530
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINDS.

LATEST OBSERVATION NETWORK/RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY ETC...INDICATES
THAT FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
COMBINATION WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...WELL BELOW LAST DAY OF APRIL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE CWFA IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY COMPONENT SURFACE WINDS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS.

LATEST PVA ANALYSIS...NEAR/REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WINTRY FEEL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY (I.E. THE 1ST
DAY OF MAY 2016).

AN EXAMPLE OF THIS IS THAT WFO PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING (SINCE MAY 1ST IS THE 1ST DAY OF THE NORMAL GROWING
SEASON OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT) THAT WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS...WHERE MANY LOCATIONS IN THIS FREEZE WARNING SHOULD
EXPERIENCE 32F OR COLDER AIR TEMPERATURE READINGS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME-
FRAME...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND CLOUDS MAY PREVENT SOME LOCATIONS FROM
EXPERIENCING SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 00Z MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO UNTIL AROUND 09Z SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS STILL PROJECTED
TO REMAIN WEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO SUNDAY.  HAVE
ALSO DEPICTED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
OVER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONTEMPLATED ISSUING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS (I.E. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY) OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER HAVE REFRAINED FOR NOW AS PRIMARY IMPACT WILL
OCCUR IN THE 2ND PERIOD (SUNDAY) AND CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES ONLY
SUPPORT 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO FOUR INCH
RANGE (I.E. BELOW CRITERIA) AT THIS TIME...WITH LIGHTER
SNOW/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF LATER
TRENDS/COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INTENSIFY STRENGTH AND/OR INDICATE A
MORE FAVORABLE TRACK WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN WFO PUEBLO
WOULD ISSUE NECESSARY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. AS ALWAYS...WFO
PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FINALLY...WELL BELOW SEASONAL LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

...UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...

LATEST MODELS COMING IN A BIT WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS TREND TOWARD
A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NAM HAS A BETTER
DEFINED TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AND IT HAS MORE QPF AS WELL. THE BROAD TROF...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOWFALL...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE INTENSE SNOWFALL AT TIMES.
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.

THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WITH TROFINESS IMPACTING EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY. STILL DEALING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON AN UPWARD TREND...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA/SOUTHERN NV FRIDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A
STRONG MID LEVEL JET COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED THRU LATE NIGHT IN THE
VCNTY OF KCOS...CHANCES FOR PCPN THEN DECREASE UNTIL ABOUT
MIDAFTERNOON SUN WHEN PCPN CHANCES THEN INCREASE AGAIN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. KCOS SHOULD SEE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS FROM ABOUT
MIDMORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CLOUDY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AT KPUB. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT KPUB AROUND MIDMORNING AT KPUB AND
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN COULD
MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KPUB AROUND MIDAFTERNOON AND WL CONTINUE
THRU THE EVENING. THERE WL BE SNOW CHANCES AT KALS BY EARLY SUN
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT 11Z. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON AT KALS WITH SHOWERS BEING
POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ083>089-093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010530
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINDS.

LATEST OBSERVATION NETWORK/RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY ETC...INDICATES
THAT FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
COMBINATION WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...WELL BELOW LAST DAY OF APRIL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE CWFA IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY COMPONENT SURFACE WINDS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS.

LATEST PVA ANALYSIS...NEAR/REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WINTRY FEEL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY (I.E. THE 1ST
DAY OF MAY 2016).

AN EXAMPLE OF THIS IS THAT WFO PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING (SINCE MAY 1ST IS THE 1ST DAY OF THE NORMAL GROWING
SEASON OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT) THAT WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS...WHERE MANY LOCATIONS IN THIS FREEZE WARNING SHOULD
EXPERIENCE 32F OR COLDER AIR TEMPERATURE READINGS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME-
FRAME...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND CLOUDS MAY PREVENT SOME LOCATIONS FROM
EXPERIENCING SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 00Z MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO UNTIL AROUND 09Z SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS STILL PROJECTED
TO REMAIN WEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO SUNDAY.  HAVE
ALSO DEPICTED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
OVER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONTEMPLATED ISSUING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS (I.E. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY) OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER HAVE REFRAINED FOR NOW AS PRIMARY IMPACT WILL
OCCUR IN THE 2ND PERIOD (SUNDAY) AND CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES ONLY
SUPPORT 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO FOUR INCH
RANGE (I.E. BELOW CRITERIA) AT THIS TIME...WITH LIGHTER
SNOW/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF LATER
TRENDS/COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INTENSIFY STRENGTH AND/OR INDICATE A
MORE FAVORABLE TRACK WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN WFO PUEBLO
WOULD ISSUE NECESSARY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. AS ALWAYS...WFO
PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FINALLY...WELL BELOW SEASONAL LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

...UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...

LATEST MODELS COMING IN A BIT WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS TREND TOWARD
A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NAM HAS A BETTER
DEFINED TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AND IT HAS MORE QPF AS WELL. THE BROAD TROF...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOWFALL...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE INTENSE SNOWFALL AT TIMES.
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.

THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WITH TROFINESS IMPACTING EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY. STILL DEALING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON AN UPWARD TREND...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA/SOUTHERN NV FRIDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A
STRONG MID LEVEL JET COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED THRU LATE NIGHT IN THE
VCNTY OF KCOS...CHANCES FOR PCPN THEN DECREASE UNTIL ABOUT
MIDAFTERNOON SUN WHEN PCPN CHANCES THEN INCREASE AGAIN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. KCOS SHOULD SEE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS FROM ABOUT
MIDMORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CLOUDY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AT KPUB. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT KPUB AROUND MIDMORNING AT KPUB AND
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN COULD
MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KPUB AROUND MIDAFTERNOON AND WL CONTINUE
THRU THE EVENING. THERE WL BE SNOW CHANCES AT KALS BY EARLY SUN
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT 11Z. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON AT KALS WITH SHOWERS BEING
POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ083>089-093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010217
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS EVENING. A BIT OF AN ENHANCED
BAND OF PRECIP IS PUSHING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
INCREASE PRECIP THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. A BIT BETTER DRYING
WITH AN END TO MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD SETTLE IN BETWEEN 10 PM
AND MIDNIGHT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
DENVER AND ACROSS DOUGLAS CO WITH THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE NORTHERLY
FLOW THERE. RAIN/SNOW LINE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET AGL AS
OBSERVATIONS SITES ON THE PLAINS ARE A BIT WARMER.

BY LATER TONIGHT....WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK ASCENT FROM THE
UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE LIGHT SNOW A BIT OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. WILL ADJUST WEATHER
AND POPS THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN. AREAS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN ABLE TO GET THROUGH...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY STILL FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LESSENING AND QG
VERTICAL MOTION HAS TURNED DOWNWARD...SO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT STILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20
MPH.

QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL TURN UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE DECREASING...WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...CAUSING
WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...BUT
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW...BUT STILL AROUND 15 TO 20
DEGREES LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH SHALLOW AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THOSE WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPSLOPE ABATES AND
WEAK DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. IF SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY...
THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HARD FREEZE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
SUFFICIENT SNOW COVER. WILL ASSESS THAT IN UPCOMING SHIFTS FOR
POTENTIAL FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS A HARDER FREEZE WITH LOWS DROPPING
WELL INTO THE 20S MAY DAMAGE FRUIT TREES.

ON MONDAY...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY AND IT WILL FINALLY TURN
A LITTLE WARMER. THAT BEING SAID...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE PLAINS...WHILE SNOW COVERED
AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S WITH LITTLE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO AID WARMING. THOSE READINGS ARE A GOOD 10-18 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN...SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW
LATE DAY SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT COULD DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING.

THE MAIN WARMUP WILL FINALLY KICK IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND ALLOW THE WARMING TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE HELD BACK BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
SO ONLY THREAT WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY LATE THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY...THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
OVERALL THINK ITS PROGRESSION IS TOO FAST FOR THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN IN PLACE...SO WILL DELAY THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
MORE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWEST CIGS/VSBY WITH THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE NOW THROUGH 11 PM...AND THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL
MAINLY END BUT COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES STILL ESPECIALLY AT APA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW ENDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
627 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LARGE AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL MEAN VERY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS ONE OLD LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW...NOW CENTERED
OVER WESTERN AZ...WITH FILL AND MOVE EAST AND OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS IS A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN SEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND MEANS THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF ABOUT A LINE FROM MOAB TO ASPEN...AND DECREASED CHANCES TO THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND FOUR CORNERS INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE STEADILY
DECREASING AND SLIDING EAST. WED AND THU RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
MIDWEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. THU AFTERNOON THE RIDGELINE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY AS THIS STRONG CLOSED
LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE WESTERN
U.S. ON SAT THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER EASTERN UT WITH RELATIVELY
WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH 03Z
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO AS LOW AS 6000 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY.
ILS CIGS WILL BE COMMON NEAR SHOWERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302147
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
347 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LARGE AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL MEAN VERY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS ONE OLD LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW...NOW CENTERED
OVER WESTERN AZ...WITH FILL AND MOVE EAST AND OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS IS A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN SEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND MEANS THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF ABOUT A LINE FROM MOAB TO ASPEN...AND DECREASED CHANCES TO THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND FOUR CORNERS INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE STEADILY
DECREASING AND SLIDING EAST. WED AND THU RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
MIDWEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. THU AFTERNOON THE RIDGELINE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY AS THIS STRONG CLOSED
LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE WESTERN
U.S. ON SAT THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER EASTERN UT WITH RELATIVELY
WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM TWO STORMS...ONE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
OTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL ILS CIGS OVER MOST
TAF SITES TONIGHT. MTS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 302141
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINDS.

LATEST OBSERVATION NETWORK/RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY ETC...INDICATES
THAT FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
COMBINATION WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...WELL BELOW LAST DAY OF APRIL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE CWFA IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY COMPONENT SURFACE WINDS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS.

LATEST PVA ANALYSIS...NEAR/REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WINTRY FEEL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY (I.E. THE 1ST
DAY OF MAY 2016).

AN EXAMPLE OF THIS IS THAT WFO PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING (SINCE MAY 1ST IS THE 1ST DAY OF THE NORMAL GROWING
SEASON OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT) THAT WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS...WHERE MANY LOCATIONS IN THIS FREEZE WARNING SHOULD
EXPERIENCE 32F OR COLDER AIR TEMPERATURE READINGS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME-
FRAME...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND CLOUDS MAY PREVENT SOME LOCATIONS FROM
EXPERIENCING SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 00Z MONDAY.

INITIALLY...THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO UNTIL AROUND 09Z SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS STILL PROJECTED
TO REMAIN WEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO SUNDAY.  HAVE
ALSO DEPICTED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
OVER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONTEMPLATED ISSUING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS (I.E. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY) OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER HAVE REFRAINED FOR NOW AS PRIMARY IMPACT WILL
OCCUR IN THE 2ND PERIOD (SUNDAY) AND CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES ONLY
SUPPORT 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO FOUR INCH
RANGE (I.E. BELOW CRITERIA) AT THIS TIME...WITH LIGHTER
SNOW/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF LATER
TRENDS/COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INTENSIFY STRENGTH AND/OR INDICATE A
MORE FAVORABLE TRACK WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN WFO PUEBLO
WOULD ISSUE NECESSARY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. AS ALWAYS...WFO
PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FINALLY...WELL BELOW SEASONAL LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

...UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...

LATEST MODELS COMING IN A BIT WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS TREND TOWARD
A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NAM HAS A BETTER
DEFINED TROF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AND IT HAS MORE QPF AS WELL. THE BROAD TROF...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOWFALL...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE INTENSE SNOWFALL AT TIMES.
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.

THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WITH TROFINESS IMPACTING EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY. STILL DEALING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON AN UPWARD TREND...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA/SOUTHERN NV FRIDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A
STRONG MID LEVEL JET COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IF THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS TAF
SITES. IN ADDITION...SNOW AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING TO IFR AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10Z SUNDAY) AS NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH NOT
DEPICTED IN TAFS YET DUE TO CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
COZ083>089-093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KBOU 302103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN. AREAS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN ABLE TO GET THROUGH...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS
LESSENING AND QG VERTICAL MOTION HAS TURNED DOWNWARD...SO PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT STILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH.

QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL TURN UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE DECREASING...WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...CAUSING
WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...BUT
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW...BUT STILL AROUND 15 TO 20
DEGREES LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WITH SHALLOW AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THOSE WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPSLOPE ABATES AND
WEAK DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. IF SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY...
THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HARD FREEZE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
SUFFICIENT SNOW COVER. WILL ASSESS THAT IN UPCOMING SHIFTS FOR
POTENTIAL FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS A HARDER FREEZE WITH LOWS DROPPING
WELL INTO THE 20S MAY DAMAGE FRUIT TREES.

ON MONDAY...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY AND IT WILL FINALLY TURN
A LITTLE WARMER. THAT BEING SAID...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE PLAINS...WHILE SNOW COVERED
AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S WITH LITTLE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO AID WARMING. THOSE READINGS ARE A GOOD 10-18 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN...SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW
LATE DAY SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT COULD DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING.

THE MAIN WARMUP WILL FINALLY KICK IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND ALLOW THE WARMING TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE HELD BACK BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
SO ONLY THREAT WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY LATE THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY...THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
OVERALL THINK ITS PROGRESSION IS TOO FAST FOR THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN IN PLACE...SO WILL DELAY THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MORE
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHWEST TO NORTH SFC WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT AFTER 6Z. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301755
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1155 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER LOW SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES/DRIZZLE LINGERING
OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAVE STAYED FAIRLY STEADY
IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND AROUND
TRINIDAD. FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW MAKES ONLY VERY MINOR PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING COOL AND MOIST NW FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. FORCING FOR PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK...THOUGH WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SUSPECT WE`LL SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS/WIND AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER
RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAX TEMPS RUNNING SOME 20F BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH LOW NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NEBRASKA AND NEXT LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS AZ. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES ON A MORE E-NE
COMPONENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
WITH THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS CONTINUING. BY EARLY SUN
MORNING...LIFT AHEAD OF AZ LOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ALONG THE NM
BORDER...AND EXPECT SOME STEADIER PRECIP...MAINLY SNOW...TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SAN JUANS/SOUTHERN SANGRES/SAN LUIS
VALLEY TOWARD SUNRISE. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAR BELOW FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MOST SITES WITHIN
A FEW DEGF OF 32F. MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH
TEENS AND 20S LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

...MORE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV...WILL MOVE INTO
ERN AZ SUN MORNING AND ON TO NRN NM SUN AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MON MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SAN JUANS WILL SEE THE FIRST ROUND SUN
MORNING...THEN PRECIP SHIFTS TO THE SANGRES AND WETS SUN AFTERNOON
AND THEN THE PIKES PEAK AREA AND ERN PLAINS SUN EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE 7000-7500 FEET SUNDAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY MON MORNING...SO THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS IN AND AROUND KCOS OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
LOOK GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000
FEET. THIS IS JUST BELOW WARING CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
WINTER HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE MTN AREAS
WILL REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENT. STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH QPF TO EXPECT...BUT THE MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES AS IT LIFTS
OFF INTO THE PLAINS. A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD BY TUESDAY...BUT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS ON
MON AND 60S FOR TUE.

WEDNESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE FINALLY REBUILDS AND TEMPS
REBOUND TO THE 70S FOR THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY NR 80 DEGREES BY THU.
THE BREAK IN THE STORMY PATTERN WILL BE RATHER
BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY
DEEP BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS OUR MOST RECENT STORM. DEEP SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL JET...COULD
BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SVR WX TO THE PLAINS BY FRI AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS IT TRACKS ACROSS CO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MTNS WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES. IN ADDITION...SNOW AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AT TIMES INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301743
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1143 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. RABBIT EARS TO VAIL PASS SAW SNOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT CDOT WEBCAMS INDICATE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT
ROADS ARE NOW WET. DID ADJUST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z
SOUNDING AT GJT THIS MORNING STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW SPEED SHEAR WILL KEEP
SHOWERS FROM DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEYS MUCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY. SURFACE GRADIENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TOWARD LAV GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO THE PLAINS...ANOTHER
FOLLOWS FROM THE WEST. WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM THE LOW TO OUR EAST AND WILL BE
ENHANCED FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE CLOSED
LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA TODAY
AND WILL ADD MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS. THIS ALL MEANS THAT
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A FEW ISOLD
STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.  SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE SPARSE.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING PRECIP TO OUR SRN VALLEYS AND THE SAN JUANS.
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBABLE FOR
THE SAN JUANS BUT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS...IMPACTS TO ROADS
APPEARED NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY...ANTICIPATE MORE OF THE SAME
MEANING MOSTLY WET ROADS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LOW OPENS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT PRECIP
FROM THE BOOK CLIFFS/ROAN/TAVAPUTS DOWN SOUTH...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS USUAL. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY
THIN AND WEAK PORTION OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO FIRE. WEDNESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA
BRINGING SOME WELL DESERVED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
CWA. THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW COMES ASHORE
OVER SRN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...STORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

GENERAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP SCT TO BKN
SKIES AT MOST AIRPORTS AND VCSH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT MANY OF THE
VALLEY AIRPORTS WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KVEL.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORIATE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301609 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1009 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RISING OVER THE NORTHERN URBAN CORRIDOR...LIKELY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
AREAS OF RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
PRECIP AROUND TODAY....WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO. MAY NEED TO FURTHER COOL THEM DOWN....WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODELS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
LATER TODAY...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
HAVE LESSENED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW HOWEVER IN THE GRIDS THIS
MORNING. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG AS WELL THROUGH 15Z.  LIMITED
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT TODAY WITH WEAKENING QG ASCENT PROGGED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING THEN WEAK SUBSIDENCE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
STILL SHOW SHALLOW INSTABILITY PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BELOW 700
MB. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT BACK
INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...BUT COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN. FOR TNGT...DRIER AIR
ALOFT WITH CONTINUED DOWNWARD QG THROUGH 06Z...BUT LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE. FOR THIS REASON WILL
CONTINUE POPS OVERNIGHT. WEAK QG ASCENT WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CO LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A SECONDARY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SUN AND THEN WEAKEN INTO A SPLIT ELONGATED SYSTEM BY SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE WK AT BEST ON SUN. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH MOISTURE UP TO 700 MB
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN TO SOME AREAS.  AT THIS TIME BEST FOCUS
APPEARS TO BE IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS EAST FACING SLOPES
OF THE MTNS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS THRU THE AFTN HOURS. WITH HIGH SUN ANGLE AND TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING ANY ACCUMULATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STAY ON GRASSY
AREAS AND BE AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
FOOTHILLS MAY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ALTHOUGH THE FAR NERN
CORNER COULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S.

BY SUN NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SELY IN THE EVENING
AND THEN WK SLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
BLO 700 MB SO STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN THE
MTNS AND IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS SUN EVENING BUT PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY MIDNIGHT IN MOST PLACES.

FOR MON A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY AFFECTS THE AREA IN WK WLY FLOW.  BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL
KEEP IN A CHC OF MAINLY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHC ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS SHOULD SEE SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER
NERN CO.  BY TUE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH WK FLOW ALOFT.  THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.  ACROSS NERN CO
IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

ON WED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER COLORADO WITH LESS
MOISTURE AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THUS SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS AS READINGS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
STATE WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  SOME MOISTURE MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.
ACROSS NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR FRI THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SWRN US.  SFC LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS WRN CO WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  AFTN CAPES ARE CURRENTLY FCST IN THE 1500-2000 RANGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS SO COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS.  ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
AS WELL SO WILL MENTION A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1002 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHWEST TO NORTH SFC WINDS TODAY...INCREASING IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE THIS AFTN. IFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW
BY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME WARMING CAUSES THE AIRMASS TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
SHOWERY AND MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301602
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1002 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RISING OVER THE NORTHERN URBAN CORRIDOR...LIKELY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
AREAS OF RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
PRECIP AROUND TODAY....WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO. MAY NEED TO FURTHER COOL THEM DOWN....WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
HAVE LESSENED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW HOWEVER IN THE GRIDS THIS
MORNING. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG AS WELL THROUGH 15Z.  LIMITED
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT TODAY WITH WEAKENING QG ASCENT PROGGED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING THEN WEAK SUBSIDENCE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
STILL SHOW SHALLOW INSTABILITY PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BELOW 700
MB. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT BACK
INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...BUT COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN. FOR TNGT...DRIER AIR
ALOFT WITH CONTINUED DOWNWARD QG THROUGH 06Z...BUT LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE. FOR THIS REASON WILL
CONTINUE POPS OVERNIGHT. WEAK QG ASCENT WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CO LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A SECONDARY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SUN AND THEN WEAKEN INTO A SPLIT ELONGATED SYSTEM BY SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE WK AT BEST ON SUN. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH MOISTURE UP TO 700 MB
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN TO SOME AREAS.  AT THIS TIME BEST FOCUS
APPEARS TO BE IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS EAST FACING SLOPES
OF THE MTNS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS THRU THE AFTN HOURS. WITH HIGH SUN ANGLE AND TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING ANY ACCUMULATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STAY ON GRASSY
AREAS AND BE AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
FOOTHILLS MAY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ALTHOUGH THE FAR NERN
CORNER COULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S.

BY SUN NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SELY IN THE EVENING
AND THEN WK SLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
BLO 700 MB SO STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN THE
MTNS AND IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS SUN EVENING BUT PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY MIDNIGHT IN MOST PLACES.

FOR MON A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY AFFECTS THE AREA IN WK WLY FLOW.  BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL
KEEP IN A CHC OF MAINLY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHC ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS SHOULD SEE SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER
NERN CO.  BY TUE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH WK FLOW ALOFT.  THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.  ACROSS NERN CO
IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

ON WED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER COLORADO WITH LESS
MOISTURE AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THUS SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS AS READINGS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
STATE WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  SOME MOISTURE MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.
ACROSS NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR FRI THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SWRN US.  SFC LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS WRN CO WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  AFTN CAPES ARE CURRENTLY FCST IN THE 1500-2000 RANGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS SO COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS.  ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
AS WELL SO WILL MENTION A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1002 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHWEST TO NORTH SFC WINDS TODAY...INCREASING IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE THIS AFTN. IFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW
BY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME WARMING CAUSES THE AIRMASS TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
SHOWERY AND MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301533
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. RABBIT EARS TO VAIL PASS SAW SNOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT CDOT WEBCAMS INDICATE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT
ROADS ARE NOW WET. DID ADJUST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z
SOUNDING AT GJT THIS MORNING STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW SPEED SHEAR WILL KEEP
SHOWERS FROM DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEYS MUCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY. SURFACE GRADIENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TOWARD LAV GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO THE PLAINS...ANOTHER
FOLLOWS FROM THE WEST. WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM THE LOW TO OUR EAST AND WILL BE
ENHANCED FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE CLOSED
LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA TODAY
AND WILL ADD MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS. THIS ALL MEANS THAT
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A FEW ISOLD
STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.  SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE SPARSE.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING PRECIP TO OUR SRN VALLEYS AND THE SAN JUANS.
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBABLE FOR
THE SAN JUANS BUT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS...IMPACTS TO ROADS
APPEARED NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY...ANTICIPATE MORE OF THE SAME
MEANING MOSTLY WET ROADS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LOW OPENS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT PRECIP
FROM THE BOOK CLIFFS/ROAN/TAVAPUTS DOWN SOUTH...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS USUAL. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY
THIN AND WEAK PORTION OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO FIRE. WEDNESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA
BRINGING SOME WELL DESERVED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
CWA. THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW COMES ASHORE
OVER SRN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...STORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS
THAN SEEN YESTERDAY. EVEN SO...MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL BE THE RULE WITH
OCCNL BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME. TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH SOME DROPS TO MVFR...MAYBE EVEN IFR...POSSIBLE IF
A STORM OR HEAVIER SHOWER DRIFTS OVER AN AIRPORT. AFTER
00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD START IMPROVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THOUGH SOME MTN SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301533
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. RABBIT EARS TO VAIL PASS SAW SNOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT CDOT WEBCAMS INDICATE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT
ROADS ARE NOW WET. DID ADJUST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z
SOUNDING AT GJT THIS MORNING STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW SPEED SHEAR WILL KEEP
SHOWERS FROM DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEYS MUCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY. SURFACE GRADIENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TOWARD LAV GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO THE PLAINS...ANOTHER
FOLLOWS FROM THE WEST. WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM THE LOW TO OUR EAST AND WILL BE
ENHANCED FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE CLOSED
LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA TODAY
AND WILL ADD MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS. THIS ALL MEANS THAT
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A FEW ISOLD
STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.  SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE SPARSE.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING PRECIP TO OUR SRN VALLEYS AND THE SAN JUANS.
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBABLE FOR
THE SAN JUANS BUT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS...IMPACTS TO ROADS
APPEARED NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY...ANTICIPATE MORE OF THE SAME
MEANING MOSTLY WET ROADS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LOW OPENS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT PRECIP
FROM THE BOOK CLIFFS/ROAN/TAVAPUTS DOWN SOUTH...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS USUAL. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY
THIN AND WEAK PORTION OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO FIRE. WEDNESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA
BRINGING SOME WELL DESERVED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
CWA. THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW COMES ASHORE
OVER SRN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...STORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS
THAN SEEN YESTERDAY. EVEN SO...MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL BE THE RULE WITH
OCCNL BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME. TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH SOME DROPS TO MVFR...MAYBE EVEN IFR...POSSIBLE IF
A STORM OR HEAVIER SHOWER DRIFTS OVER AN AIRPORT. AFTER
00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD START IMPROVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THOUGH SOME MTN SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities