000
FXUS65 KBOU 231447
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
839 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST JUST FINE TUNING GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AM OVER DENVER. STILL HIGH
STABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS TODAY AND CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO OVERCOME
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE IN THE
FLOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WAVE AND CYCLONE IN PLACE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A STORM MAY MOVE OVER THE ADJ PLAINS LATER TODAY.
WILL REASSESS STABILITY PROFILE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER UPDATE
PLANNED LATER THIS AM.

.AVIATION...DENVER CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25KT AT APA/DEN WHILE BJC
HAS SHIFTED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRATUS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
PUSHING SOUTH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF DENVER WHILE LITTLE FINGERS
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF DIA. STILL THINK APA/DEN WILL REMAIN
VFR BUT JUST A VERY LOW PERCENT (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
A SCT-BKN CEILING AROUND 1000 FT AGL FOR A SHORT TIME BETWEEN
15-17Z AT KDEN. WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS LOW PROB AT KDEN FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT HAVE KEPT THE
LOW CLOUDS AWAY FROM DEN AND APA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A BIG HOLE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO THE DENVER AREA...INCLUDING KDEN AND
APA. AT THIS TIME DOUBT THE STRATUS COULD MAKE IT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY
REMOVED THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THESE TERMINALS. NO CHANGES TO BJC
WITH SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ONGOING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231439
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
839 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST JUST FINE TUNINGSKY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AM OVER DENVER.
STILL HIGH STABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS TODAY AND CHALLENGE
WILL BE IF ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS HAVE ENOUGH
PUNCH TO OVERCOME STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE
IS A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WAVE AND CYCLONE IN PLACE
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A STORM MAY MOVE OVER THE ADJ
PLAINS LATER TODAY. WILL REASSESS STABILITY PROFILE THIS MORNING
WITH ANOTHER UPDATE PLANNED LATER THIS AM.

.AVIATION...DENVER CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25KT AT APA/DEN WHILE BJC
HAS SHIFTED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRATUS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
PUSHING SOUTH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF DENVER WHILE LITTLE FINGERS
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF DIA. STILL THINK APA/DEN WILL REMAIN
VFR BUT JUST A VERY LOW PERCENT (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
A SCT-BKN CEILING AROUND 1000 FT AGL FOR A SHORT TIME BETWEEN
15-17Z AT KDEN. WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS LOW PROB AT KDEN FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT HAVE KEPT THE
LOW CLOUDS AWAY FROM DEN AND APA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A BIG HOLE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO THE DENVER AREA...INCLUDING KDEN AND
APA. AT THIS TIME DOUBT THE STRATUS COULD MAKE IT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY
REMOVED THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THESE TERMINALS. NO CHANGES TO BJC
WITH SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ONGOING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KBOU 231256
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
656 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT HAVE KEPT THE
LOW CLOUDS AWAY FROM DEN AND APA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A BIG HOLE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO THE DENVER AREA...INCLUDING KDEN AND
APA. AT THIS TIME DOUBT THE STRATUS COULD MAKE IT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY
REMOVED THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THESE TERMINALS. NO CHANGES TO BJC
WITH SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ONGOING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KPUB 231035
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
435 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

LOW LEVEL E-SE UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND A RAPID EXPANSION OF MVFR
STRATUS WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 10Z.
ALSO APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS HAS WORKED WESTWARD
INTO THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...AS SALIDA AND BUENA VISTA HAVE
BECOME OVERCAST. EXPECT STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES
AND PLAINS BY MID-MORNING.  MODELS THEN SUGGEST STRATUS WILL
DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WITH SOME SOME SUN...AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY
UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES FALL INTO THE MINUS 2
TO MINUS 4 RANGE WHILE CAPES CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY...TOUGH TO RULE OUT A TSRA OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS...AND WILL CONVERT -SHRA TO -TRSA FOR MOST OF THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAR SOUTHEAST MAY EVEN SEE A CHANCE
OF A STRONG STORM AS 0-6KM SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOSHES BACK WESTWARD BY MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ONCE
AGAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
GRADUALLY DEEPENS. WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL MISS OUT ON
MOST MOISTURE AND PRECIP...AS AIR MASS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
REMAINS VERY DRY. MAX TEMPS TODAY LIKELY WARMEST OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...WHILE PLAINS STAY RATHER COOL WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASED
MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS FRIDAY...
...WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX
FRIDAY...GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM KLIC TO KLHX TO KTAD. DEEP SWRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVR THE W COAST AND PACNW WILL LEAD TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVR ERN CO BY FRI AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFDS...POSITION OF DRYLINE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS. SVR THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST LATE FRI AFTERNOON OVR
PROWERS AND ERN KIOWA COUNTIES...WHERE CAPE OF AROUND 2000
J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS OR SO...ALONG WITH VEERING WIND
PROFILES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT WILL
PROBABLY BE LIMITED DUE TO HIGH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH LCLS.

OTHER STORY FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE THE VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BREAKING THE
90 DEGREE MARK OVR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS BOTH SAT AND
SUN...AND POSSIBLY INTO MON IF A COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF TIL LATE IN
THE DAY. STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE PERSISTENT WRN TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS OVR THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL REMAIN  LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EWD INTO
KS...BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DRYLINE FLIRT WITH THE CO-KS BORDER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE POPS PICK UP A BIT AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS BOTH ARE
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO AZ AND NM IN THE
TUE-THU TIME PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...FOR THE MTS EARLY ON...AND THEN POSSIBLY MORE ACTION
ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NR
SEASONAL AVERAGES. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

MVFR STRATUS EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THIS
MORNING...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR KCOS AND KPUB...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS FROM 11Z
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...BEFORE CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND LIFT BY
20-22Z. THEN EXPECT A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER
22Z...CONTINUING UNTIL 04Z. OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP AND COVER BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL MID-MORNING FRIDAY. AT
KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

000
FXUS65 KGJT 231001
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
401 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

WINDY AND WARMER TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER WA/OR
MAINTAINS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR IMPACTS. A COLD FRONT WAS BUTTED UP
AGAINST THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UTAH MTNS EARLIER AND SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE
LITTLE EASTWARD PUSH.

AN UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NWRN
UT TODAY AND ENHANCE WINDS ALOFT OVER ERN UT/WRN CO. LAST EVENING/S
SOUNDING AT GRAND JCT SHOWED DEEP MIXING UP TO 500 MB AND SEE NO
REASON WHY DEEP MIXING WON/T OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND A BIT
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON
ACROSS ERN UT AND MUCH OF WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS IN ERN UT AND NW CO COULD FLIRT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET MAX MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO...THOUGH ONCE THE DIURNAL INPUT SUBSIDES
AROUND SUNSET...WIND STRENGTH WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER
SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST-EAST ACROSS WY AND BRUSHES OUR NORTHERN
BORDER. THE AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
LOWS 0-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED NIGHT`S.

THE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN THE
NORTHWEST LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THEREFORE
GUSTY WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BY THE
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF THE PREVIOUS
DAY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG. BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
THOSE ON THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DRY...WARM AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONLY GRADUALLY EVOLVES AS THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
SITS TO OUR EAST. AGAIN GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 7-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PAC NW LIFTS INTO WRN CANADA SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT UPSTREAM PACIFIC ENERGY LOOKS TO MAINTAIN AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES GROW...HOWEVER. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST AND IS SLOWER TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD FOR MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS BY WED FOR A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ARE LIKELY. PRIOR
TO 18Z...LOCAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
MORNING DOWN VALLEY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
RIDGE TOPS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST...AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE THE
ALREADY STRONG FLOW. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WIND GUSTS 25-40 MPH
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS TO
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CO FIRE ZONES 207...290 AND 292 WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICALLY DRY.

THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A
GRADUAL MODIFICATION TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THESE WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ207-290-292.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ207-290-292.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JAD
LONG TERM...EH/JAD
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...EH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 230912
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER

000
FXUS65 KPUB 230529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN POPS
AND SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT SKY COVER AND EVENING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

...COOL FRONT BACKS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGES.  SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 20S
AND 30S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME
40S ARE FOUND IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY EAST OF LA JUNTA.
EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH THE DRY SURFACE AIR MASS IN
PLACE...PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
SEND A SURGE OF COOL...MOIST AIR INTO EASTERN COLORADO AT THE LOWER
LEVELS.  EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK THIS AIR MASS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD IT THERE FOR THURSDAY.  A DECK OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS AIR MASS OVER THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
FOG AND OR DRIZZLE.

ON THURSDAY...NO PRECIP INITIALLY BUT AS THE DAY WEARS ON...COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...LATE IN THE
DAY.  THIS AREA WILL BE AT THE FRINGE OF THE STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
PLAINS AND HAVE THE FORCING OF THE MOUNTAINS TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OUT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
GOES ON.  MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS.  ALTHOUGH...THE SETUP
FOR ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP IS NOT VERY CONVINCING...THERE
COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS IF THE STRATUS DECK COMES IN
THICK ENOUGH ON THURSDAY.  FOR EVERYPLACE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE...NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...MAINLY JUST WARM AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM POSSIBLE...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT LIKELY.

THE OTHER NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS.  UNDER CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVER THE EAST...AND JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL.  LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGES.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED DUE TO A CHANGE IN FUELS STATUS AS OF
THIS MORNING.  THE LATEST STATUS REPORT INDICATES THERE IS ENOUGH
GREEN UP OCCURRING TO REDUCE THE FIRE THREAT FOR THE TIME BEING. IT
WILL STILL BE WINDY AND DRY ACROSS THE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...SO CAUTION TO AVOID FIRE STARTS IS STILL A GOOD IDEA. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS...AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSITIONS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW STRATUS...FOG AND ANY
DRIZZLE TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STILL POINT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. MUCH DEPENDS ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP WITH MODELS
VARYING IN EXACT POSITION. THE NAM SETS UP THE DRYLINE FROM EADS
DOWN TO WEST OF SPRINGFIELD WHICH WOULD PUT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PLAINS UNDER THE THREAT. THE GFS HAS THE DRYLINE SET UP ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER...WHICH WOULD PUT THE EXTREME FAR EASTERN AREAS
UNDER THE THREAT. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...AND SHEAR IS MODEST AT 30-40 KTS. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FUTURE
RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...STRONG MIXING WILL
ALLOW GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO SPREAD
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.

THE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP. MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE IT ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER...OR EAST INTO KANSAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ALONG THE
BORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
MIXING WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FUEL STATUS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ALL
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING GRILLING ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

CHUNKS OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF THE OPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A
COOL FRONT WITH 80S FOR HIGHS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF KCOS THROUGH AROUND 06Z...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES
ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  AFTER MIDNIGHT...
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM
LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MORE DENSE STRATUS LAYER. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
NOTED AT KALS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS65 KGJT 230322
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS THIS EVENING AS NEW FUEL
STATUS REPORTS HAVE BEEN MODIFIED A BIT. DETAILS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. NO OTHER CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

H5 ANALYSIS SHOWING A BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES INTO THE HIGH LATITUDES OF NOAM. THIS INCLUDES A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHICH WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES WELL INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. AS A RESULT DRY AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED TOWARD OUR CWA AND BRING A STRONG WARM UP INCLUDING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.

SOME CU FORMING FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL UPLIFT
COMING FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE UNDER THIS
ASCENT AND A FEW SHOWERS/ISO T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AS BONE DRY LOW LAYERS
WILL BE THE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENTS ACROSS THE LOWER
WESTERN VALLEYS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE HIGH DESERTS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD DOWNVALLEY FLOW WIT FORECAST LOWS TOWARD THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY STRONG HEATING WILL AGAIN BE TAKING PLACE AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. A STRONGER CORE OF MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MOVING OVER EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW. EFFICIENT
MIXING WILL BRING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES
MOVE INTO THE LOWER 80S. PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WITH A
RECENT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG
MIXED LAYER TO PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR 90 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY IS 31 MAY...AND
WE WILL BE APPROACHING THIS TOMORROW...SO PUSHED THE FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES CLOSER ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. SOME OF THIS
GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING WINDS TOWARD WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS AND BUFKIT SHOWS A FULLY MIXED PROFILE
BRINGING GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR
WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS SO NO HEADLINES ATTM. EXPECT SOME CU/MDT CU
DEV ELOPEMENT OVER THE HILLS TOMORROW BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP
HITTING THE GROUND. THE SFC GRADIENT SLACKENS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHTER TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT
LITTLE HUMIDITY RECOVERY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF OVER ALL
BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
WILL ALSO DROP LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE
ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ALL HINT AT SOME SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EC SLOWEST...THE CANADIAN
FASTEST...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY DRY AND WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS MAY PLAY WITH TEMPERATURES BUT
AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORNING
LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL. LONG TERM GUIDANCE WAS MODIFIED FOR MORE
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO 500MB OR MORE WHICH WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY LATE-DAY SOUTHWEST WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEEK...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASE.
TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH IN THE MORNING DUE TO DOWN VALLEY FLOW. FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST DAYTIME
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
EACH DAY. FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCHES IN EFFECT
FOR FRIDAY. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

UPDATED FUEL STATUS FOR ZONE 293 INDICATES THE ZONE IN GREEN-UP
WITH FUELS NO LONGER CRITICAL...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THIS ZONE FROM
THE WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
     292.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ207-290-292.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/JDC

000
FXUS65 KPUB 230254
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
854 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN POPS
AND SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT SKY COVER AND EVENING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

...COOL FRONT BACKS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGES.  SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 20S
AND 30S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME
40S ARE FOUND IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY EAST OF LA JUNTA.
EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH THE DRY SURFACE AIR MASS IN
PLACE...PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
SEND A SURGE OF COOL...MOIST AIR INTO EASTERN COLORADO AT THE LOWER
LEVELS.  EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK THIS AIR MASS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD IT THERE FOR THURSDAY.  A DECK OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS AIR MASS OVER THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
FOG AND OR DRIZZLE.

ON THURSDAY...NO PRECIP INITIALLY BUT AS THE DAY WEARS ON...COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...LATE IN THE
DAY.  THIS AREA WILL BE AT THE FRINGE OF THE STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
PLAINS AND HAVE THE FORCING OF THE MOUNTAINS TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OUT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
GOES ON.  MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS.  ALTHOUGH...THE SETUP
FOR ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP IS NOT VERY CONVINCING...THERE
COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS IF THE STRATUS DECK COMES IN
THICK ENOUGH ON THURSDAY.  FOR EVERYPLACE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE...NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...MAINLY JUST WARM AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM POSSIBLE...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT LIKELY.

THE OTHER NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS.  UNDER CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVER THE EAST...AND JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL.  LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGES.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED DUE TO A CHANGE IN FUELS STATUS AS OF
THIS MORNING.  THE LATEST STATUS REPORT INDICATES THERE IS ENOUGH
GREEN UP OCCURRING TO REDUCE THE FIRE THREAT FOR THE TIME BEING. IT
WILL STILL BE WINDY AND DRY ACROSS THE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...SO CAUTION TO AVOID FIRE STARTS IS STILL A GOOD IDEA. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS...AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSITIONS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW STRATUS...FOG AND ANY
DRIZZLE TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STILL POINT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. MUCH DEPENDS ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP WITH MODELS
VARYING IN EXACT POSITION. THE NAM SETS UP THE DRYLINE FROM EADS
DOWN TO WEST OF SPRINGFIELD WHICH WOULD PUT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PLAINS UNDER THE THREAT. THE GFS HAS THE DRYLINE SET UP ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER...WHICH WOULD PUT THE EXTREME FAR EASTERN AREAS
UNDER THE THREAT. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...AND SHEAR IS MODEST AT 30-40 KTS. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FUTURE
RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...STRONG MIXING WILL
ALLOW GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO SPREAD
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.

THE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP. MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE IT ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER...OR EAST INTO KANSAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ALONG THE
BORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
MIXING WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FUEL STATUS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ALL
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING GRILLING ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

CHUNKS OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF THE OPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A
COOL FRONT WITH 80S FOR HIGHS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA UNTIL AROUND 06Z...INCLUDING ALL 3
TAF SITES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN...WITH LOCAL MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ACTIVITY. ALSO...ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY. STARTING
AROUND 06Z...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS LAYER. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS LAYER LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL AFFECT
KCOS AND KPUB BUT NOT KALS. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW

000
FXUS65 KBOU 230215
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
815 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...A WK DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS AND WAS COMBINING
WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FNT RANGE. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.AVIATION...GUSTY ENE WINDS BEHIND FNTL BNDRY SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WK CONVECTION WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AIRPORT
BUT SHOULD END BY 03Z. THERE IS A BNDRY WITH SSW WINDS APPROACHING
DIA HOWEVER LAST FEW RADAR SCANS HAVE SHOWN THIS BNDRY WEAKENING
SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP WINDS MAINLY ELY OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME
STRATUS DVLP AFTER 11Z LINGERING THRU THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON
THU.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...COLORADO UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHILE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE ALSO TRYING TO
DEVELOP AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. 88D SHOWING WEAK ECHOES BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO
BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. THE
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG OVER THE PLAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS OVER THE PLAINS WITH STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
ONLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER MOUNTAINS AND ELEVATED TERRAIN
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS. EVEN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHT
GIVEN LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS. TOWARDS THE EASTERN STATE
BORDER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR SOME AREAS OF
DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A THETA E
RIDGE WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
ALONG THE EASTERN CO PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING
ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL TO ERODE ANY REMAINING INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE 60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...THIS
SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MIX WITH CAPES OF
1400-1800 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40 KTS TO ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEYENNE, WY TO LIMON. AREAS TOWARD THE EASTERN STATE LINE MAY SEE
STRONGER STORMS. IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER...THE INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AND WARMER AIR THAT
WILL PRODUCE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER FUELS ARE LISTED AS STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY THE LATE SEASON PRECIPITATION.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SATURDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE DAY TO DAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS ALOFT AND EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE TO DAILY TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS EACH DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY SEE
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY STATEWIDE AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.

AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TS FROM 22-03Z OVER THE
AREA WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED. STILL OVERALL AREAL
COVERAGE SMALL SO NO MENTION OF TS IN TAF`S FOR NOW. STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT BUT UNCLEAR HOW SOLID THE DECK WILL BECOME
OVER TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT APA WITH
LESSER CHANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WRF SIMULATED IMAGERY SHOWING
HOLE IN THE STRATUS COVER OVER DENVER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DEN/APA. NO STORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ALL DAY.

HYDROLOGY...ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK

000
FXUS65 KPUB 230001
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
601 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT SKY COVER AND EVENING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

...COOL FRONT BACKS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGES.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 20S
AND 30S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME
40S ARE FOUND IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY EAST OF LA JUNTA.
EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH THE DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
SEND A SURGE OF COOL...MOIST AIR INTO EASTERN COLORADO AT THE LOWER
LEVELS.  EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK THIS AIRMASS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD IT THERE FOR THURSDAY.  A DECK OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS AIRMASS OVER THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
FOG AND OR DRIZZLE.

ON THURSDAY...NO PRECIP INITIALLY BUT AS THE DAY WEARS ON...COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...LATE IN THE
DAY.  THIS AREA WILL BE AT THE FRINGE OF THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
PLAINS AND HAVE THE FORCING OF THE MOUNTAINS TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OUT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
GOES ON.  MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS.  ALTHOUGH...THE SETUP
FOR ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP IS NOT VERY CONVINCING...THERE
COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS IF THE STRATUS DECK COMES IN
THICK ENOUGH ON THURSDAY.  FOR EVERYPLACE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE...NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...MAINLY JUST WARM AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM POSSIBLE...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT LIKELY.

THE OTHER NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS.  UNDER CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVER THE EAST...AND JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL.  LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGES.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED DUE TO A CHANGE IN FUELS STATUS AS OF
THIS MORNING.  THE LATEST STATUS REPORT INDICATES THERE IS ENOUGH
GREEN UP OCCURRING TO REDUCE THE FIRE THREAT FOR THE TIME BEING. IT
WILL STILL BE WINDY AND DRY ACROSS THE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...SO CAUTION TO AVOID FIRE STARTS IS STILL A GOOD IDEA. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS...AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSITIONS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW STRATUS...FOG AND ANY
DRIZZLE TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STILL POINT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. MUCH DEPENDS ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP WITH MODELS
VARYING IN EXACT POSITION. THE NAM SETS UP THE DRYLINE FROM EADS
DOWN TO WEST OF SPRINGFIELD WHICH WOULD PUT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PLAINS UNDER THE THREAT. THE GFS HAS THE DRYLINE SET UP ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER...WHICH WOULD PUT THE EXTREME FAR EASTERN AREAS
UNDER THE THREAT. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...AND SHEAR IS MODEST AT 30-40 KTS. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FUTURE
RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...STRONG MIXING WILL
ALLOW GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO SPREAD
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.

THE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP. MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE IT ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER...OR EAST INTO KANSAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ALONG THE
BORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
MIXING WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FUEL STATUS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ALL
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING GRILLING ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

CHUNKS OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF THE OPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A
COOL FRONT WITH 80S FOR HIGHS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA UNTIL AROUND 06Z...INCLUDING ALL 3
TAF SITES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN...WITH LOCAL MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ACTIVITY. ALSO...ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY. STARTING
AROUND 06Z...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS LAYER. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS LAYER LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL AFFECT
KCOS AND KPUB BUT NOT KALS. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW

000
FXUS65 KPUB 222138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
338 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

...COOL FRONT BACKS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGES.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 20S
AND 30S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME
40S ARE FOUND IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY EAST OF LA JUNTA.
EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH THE DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
SEND A SURGE OF COOL...MOIST AIR INTO EASTERN COLORADO AT THE LOWER
LEVELS.  EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK THIS AIRMASS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD IT THERE FOR THURSDAY.  A DECK OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.  DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH THIS AIRMASS OVER THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
FOG AND OR DRIZZLE.

ON THURSDAY...NO PRECIP INITIALLY BUT AS THE DAY WEARS ON...COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...LATE IN THE
DAY.  THIS AREA WILL BE AT THE FRINGE OF THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
PLAINS AND HAVE THE FORCING OF THE MOUNTAINS TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OUT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
GOES ON.  MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS.  ALTHOUGH...THE SETUP
FOR ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP IS NOT VERY CONVINCING...THERE
COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS IF THE STRATUS DECK COMES IN
THICK ENOUGH ON THURSDAY.  FOR EVERYPLACE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE...NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...MAINLY JUST WARM AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM POSSIBLE...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT LIKELY.

THE OTHER NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS.  UNDER CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVER THE EAST...AND JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL.  LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGES.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED DUE TO A CHANGE IN FUELS STATUS AS OF
THIS MORNING.  THE LATEST STATUS REPORT INDICATES THERE IS ENOUGH
GREEN UP OCCURRING TO REDUCE THE FIRE THREAT FOR THE TIME BEING. IT
WILL STILL BE WINDY AND DRY ACROSS THE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...SO CAUTION TO AVOID FIRE STARTS IS STILL A GOOD IDEA. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS...AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSITIONS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW STRATUS...FOG AND ANY
DRIZZLE TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STILL POINT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. MUCH DEPENDS ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP WITH MODELS
VARYING IN EXACT POSITION. THE NAM SETS UP THE DRYLINE FROM EADS
DOWN TO WEST OF SPRINGFIELD WHICH WOULD PUT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PLAINS UNDER THE THREAT. THE GFS HAS THE DRYLINE SET UP ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER...WHICH WOULD PUT THE EXTREME FAR EASTERN AREAS
UNDER THE THREAT. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...AND SHEAR IS MODEST AT 30-40 KTS. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FUTURE
RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...STRONG MIXING WILL
ALLOW GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO SPREAD
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.

THE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP. MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE IT ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER...OR EAST INTO KANSAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ALONG THE
BORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
MIXING WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON FUEL STATUS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ALL
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING GRILLING ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

CHUNKS OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF THE OPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A
COOL FRONT WITH 80S FOR HIGHS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA UNTIL AROUND 06Z...INCLUDING ALL 3
TAF SITES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN...WITH LOCAL MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ACTIVITY. ALSO...ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY. STARTING
AROUND 06Z...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS LAYER. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS LAYER LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL AFFECT
KCOS AND KPUB BUT NOT KALS. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW

000
FXUS65 KGJT 222128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

H5 ANALYSIS SHOWING A BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES INTO THE HIGH LATITUDES OF NOAM. THIS INCLUDES A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHICH WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES WELL INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. AS A RESULT DRY AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED TOWARD OUR CWA AND BRING A STRONG WARM UP INCLUDING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.

SOME CU FORMING FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL UPLIFT
COMING FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE UNDER THIS
ASCENT AND A FEW SHOWERS/ISO T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AS BONE DRY LOW LAYERS
WILL BE THE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENTS ACROSS THE LOWER
WESTERN VALLEYS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE HIGH DESERTS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD DOWNVALLEY FLOW WTIH FORECAST LOWS TOWARD THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY STRONG HEATING WILL AGAIN BE TAKING PLACE AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. A STRONGER CORE OF MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MOVING OVER EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW. EFFICIENT
MIXING WILL BRING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES
MOVE INTO THE LOWER 80S. PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WITH A
RECENT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG
MIXED LAYER TO PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR 90 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY IS 31 MAY...AND
WE WILL BE APPROACHING THIS TOMORROW...SO PUSHED THE FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES CLOSER ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. SOME OF THIS
GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING WINDS TOWARD WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS AND BUFKIT SHOWS A FULLY MIXED PROFILE
BRINGING GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR
WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS SO NO HEADLINES ATTM. EXPECT SOME CU/MDT CU
DEVELOPEMENT OVER THE HILLS TOMORROW BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP
HITTING THE GROUND. THE SFC GRADIENT SLACKENS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHTER TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT
LITTLE HUMIDITY RECOVERY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF OVER ALL
BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
WILL ALSO DROP LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE
ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ALL HINT AT SOME SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EC SLOWEST...THE CANADIAN
FASTEST...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY DRY AND WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS MAY PLAY WITH TEMPERATURES BUT
AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORNING
LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL. LONG TERM GUIDANCE WAS MODIFIED FOR MORE
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO 500MB OR MORE WHICH WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY LATE-DAY SOUTHWEST WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEEK...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASE.
TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND A
BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WILL KEEP CONVECTION
IN PLACE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TO
THE KEGE AND KASE TERMINALS NEAR THIS CONVECTION...HOWEVER
LIMITED FLIGHT CRITERIA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MAY
BRING LOCAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO
DOWN VALLEY FLOW. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR
THE WEST COAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST DAYTIME WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EACH DAY. FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO...THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
     292-293.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JOE

000
FXUS65 KBOU 222113
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
313 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...COLORADO UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHILE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE ALSO TRYING TO
DEVELOP AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. 88D SHOWING WEAK ECHOES BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO
BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. THE
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG OVER THE PLAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS OVER THE PLAINS WITH STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
ONLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER MOUNTAINS AND ELEVATED TERRAIN
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS. EVEN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHT
GIVEN LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS. TOWARDS THE EASTERN STATE
BORDER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR SOME AREAS OF
DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A THETA E
RIDGE WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
ALONG THE EASTERN CO PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING
ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL TO ERODE ANY REMAINING INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE 60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...THIS
SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MIX WITH CAPES OF
1400-1800 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40 KTS TO ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEYENNE, WY TO LIMON. AREAS TOWARD THE EASTERN STATE LINE MAY SEE
STRONGER STORMS. IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER...THE INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AND WARMER AIR THAT
WILL PRODUCE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER FUELS ARE LISTED AS STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY THE LATE SEASON PRECIPITATION.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SATURDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE DAY TO DAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS ALOFT AND EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE TO DAILY TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS EACH DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY SEE
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY STATEWIDE AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TS FROM 22-03Z OVER THE
AREA WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED. STILL OVERALL AREAL
COVERAGE SMALL SO NO MENTION OF TS IN TAF`S FOR NOW. STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT BUT UNCLEAR HOW SOLID THE DECK WILL BECOME
OVER TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT APA WITH
LESSER CHANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WRF SIMULATED IMAGERY SHOWING
HOLE IN THE STRATUS COVER OVER DENVER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DEN/APA. NO STORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ALL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KBOU 222053
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
253 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...COLORADO UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHILE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE ALSO TRYING TO
DEVELOP AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. 88D SHOWING WEAK ECHOES BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO
BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. THE
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG OVER THE PLAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS OVER THE PLAINS WITH STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
ONLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER MOUNTAINS AND ELEVATED TERRAIN
ABOVE THE INVERSIONS. EVEN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHT
GIVEN LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OUT OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. A THETA E RIDGE WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE EASTERN CO PLAINS. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL TO ERODE
ANY REMAINING INVERSION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE 60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS...THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE HEATING
WILL MIX WITH CAPES OF 1400-1800 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR
40 KTS TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE, WY TO LIMON. AREAS TOWARD THE
EASTERN STATE LINE MAY SEE STRONGER STORMS. IN TERMS OF FIRE
WEATHER...THE INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BRINGING IN
DRIER AND WARMER AIR THAT WILL PRODUCE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER FUELS ARE
LISTED AS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY THE LATE SEASON PRECIPITATION.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SATURDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE DAY TO DAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS ALOFT AND EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE TO DAILY TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS EACH DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY SEE
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY STATEWIDE AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TS FROM 22-03Z OVER THE
AREA WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED. STILL OVERALL AREAL
COVERAGE SMALL SO NO MENTION OF TS IN TAF`S FOR NOW. STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT BUT UNCLEAR HOW SOLID THE DECK WILL BECOME
OVER TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT APA WITH
LESSER CHANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WRF SIMULATED IMAGERY SHOWING
HOLE IN THE STRATUS COVER OVER DENVER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DEN/APA. NO STORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ALL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY AND AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KPUB 221830
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1230 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED FORECASTS TO DISCONTINUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. FUELS UPDATE AVAILABLE THIS MORNING
INDICATES SUFFICIENT GREENUP UNDERWAY TO DETER THREAT. ALSO
UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST BUILDING AN
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. TEMPS
EARLY THIS MORNING ARE WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH MAINLY 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AT THIS TIME. WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE NOT FAR
AWAY HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO IN THE 50S AT THIS TIME.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CURRENT FORECAST WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
STATE AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS PAC NORTHWEST LOW SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD. DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH LATE SPRING SUNSHINE FOR
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST COVERAGE AGAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS PERSIST WITH CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY HIGH BASED...PRODUCING MORE WIND AND VIRGA THAN
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. H7 TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN 8C AND 12C WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGHS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH MAINLY
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE PLAINS WHERE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS INDICATING A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH COULD
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MAIN
EFFECT OF THIS WAVE WILL BE STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ENHANCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOUNDINGS INDICATING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THURSDAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
ON THE LONGEST. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO...TOUGH TO RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THU EVENING. BEST BET FOR A TSRA THU WILL
LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHERE SOME CLEARING
BY LATE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER INSTABILITY. WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN WARM AND CONVECTION FREE
THURSDAY...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON...SO KEPT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRYLINE DEVELOPS FRIDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND APPEARS TO STAY WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER
THROUGH FRI EVENING. FAIRLY HEALTHY CAPE (1-2K J/KG) DEVELOPS
ALONG AND EAST OF AN EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE FRI
AFTERNOON...AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EAST INTO THE
EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION SEVERE IN ANY
FORECASTS YET. FARTHER WEST...MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR LOOK TOO
DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION...AND WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
INCREASING...SUSPECT WE`LL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. FOR SAT INTO
SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHUNTS DEEPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD TOWARD KS...THOUGH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
LINGERS NEAR THE KS BORDER TO WARRANT SOME ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
FAR EAST BOTH DAYS. MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSISTING. IN FACT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN UNTIL MID-WEEK...WHEN PIECES OF THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MINOR INCREASE IN
CONVECTION TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA UNTIL AROUND 06Z...INCLUDING ALL 3
TAF SITES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN...WITH LOCAL MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ACTIVITY. ALSO...ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY. STARTING
AROUND 06Z...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY. COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS LAYER. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRATUS LAYER TONIGHT WILL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB BUT NOT KALS. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW

000
FXUS65 KPUB 221759
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1159 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST BUILDING AN
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. TEMPS
EARLY THIS MORNING ARE WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH MAINLY 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AT THIS TIME. WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE NOT FAR
AWAY HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO IN THE 50S AT THIS TIME.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CURRENT FORECAST WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
STATE AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS PAC NORTHWEST LOW SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD. DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH LATE SPRING SUNSHINE FOR
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST COVERAGE AGAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS PERSIST WITH CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY HIGH BASED...PRODUCING MORE WIND AND VIRGA THAN
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. H7 TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN 8C AND 12C WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGHS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH MAINLY
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE PLAINS WHERE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS INDICATING A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH COULD
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MAIN
EFFECT OF THIS WAVE WILL BE STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ENHANCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOUNDINGS INDICATING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THURSDAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
ON THE LONGEST. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO...TOUGH TO RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THU EVENING. BEST BET FOR A TSRA THU WILL
LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHERE SOME CLEARING
BY LATE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER INSTABILITY. WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN WARM AND CONVECTION FREE
THURSDAY...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON...SO KEPT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRYLINE DEVELOPS FRIDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND APPEARS TO STAY WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER
THROUGH FRI EVENING. FAIRLY HEALTHY CAPE (1-2K J/KG) DEVELOPS
ALONG AND EAST OF AN EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE FRI
AFTERNOON...AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EAST INTO THE
EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION SEVERE IN ANY
FORECASTS YET. FARTHER WEST...MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR LOOK TOO
DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION...AND WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
INCREASING...SUSPECT WE`LL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. FOR SAT INTO
SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHUNTS DEEPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD TOWARD KS...THOUGH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
LINGERS NEAR THE KS BORDER TO WARRANT SOME ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
FAR EAST BOTH DAYS. MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSISTING. IN FACT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN UNTIL MID-WEEK...WHEN PIECES OF THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MINOR INCREASE IN
CONVECTION TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA UNTIL AROUND 06Z...INCLUDING ALL 3
TAF SITES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN...WITH LOCAL MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ACTIVITY. ALSO...ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY. STARTING
AROUND 06Z...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY. COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS LAYER. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRATUS LAYER TONIGHT WILL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB BUT NOT KALS. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW

000
FXUS65 KGJT 221749
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1149 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

SOUNDING A LITTLE DRIER AND WARMER TODAY WITH CU NOT QUITE AS
ROBUST LATE THIS MORNING AS DAYS PAST. THERE IS AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WHICH WILL ARRIVE HERE
DURING PEAK HEATING. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS
IS INDICATED AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR A WEAKER BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET.
GOING FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
CLOSER TO THE DIVIDE WITH A FEW STAY SHOWERS FARTHER OUT ON THE
SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE
STILL ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
STRONG MIXING WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY DURING THE LATE
PEAK HEATING TIME IN THE WESTERN CWA...PUSHING SOME LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

TODAY
SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING EXPECTED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO OUR AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE 4
TO 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

A LITTLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH
THE AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING THERE STILL EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAINS ALONG/NEAR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PERHAPS ALSO OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN CO.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMATTERING OF CLOUDS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW. THIS DRY WAVE WILL BRUSH
OUR WESTERN EDGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING FUELED BY THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE
WITH THE WAVE WILL DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL HEATING SUBSIDES THURSDAY EVENING.
ALSO IN PLAY WILL BE THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS TO THE
NORTH BY MID TO LATE EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER EXPECT
THAT THE DIURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE THAN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER WITHOUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECT WINDS WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER...IN SPITE OF SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FOR NOW WINDS SEEM TO MAINLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ON THU.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MODELS BRING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. GFS...WHICH IS FASTER THAN EC...BRINGS THE TROUGH TO OUR
CWA BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH
IS PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING. ALSO EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND A
BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WILL FORM
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT TO THE KEGE AND KASE TERMINALS...HOWEVER LIMITED
FLIGHT CRITERIA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MAY BRING LOCAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO DOWN VALLEY FLOW.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST...AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TODAY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS 25 MPH
OR ABOVE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. AND IF THEY DO DEVELOP
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT
DURATION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AS WARMING CONTINUES.

BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AS A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW BRUSHES THE FORECAST
AREA. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CO FIRE ZONES 207...290...292 AND 293.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
     292-293.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...EH/JRP
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...EH

000
FXUS65 KGJT 221658
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

TODAY
SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING EXPECTED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO OUR AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE 4
TO 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

A LITTLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH
THE AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING THERE STILL EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAINS ALONG/NEAR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PERHAPS ALSO OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN CO.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMATTERING OF CLOUDS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW. THIS DRY WAVE WILL BRUSH
OUR WESTERN EDGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING FUELED BY THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE
WITH THE WAVE WILL DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL HEATING SUBSIDES THURSDAY EVENING.
ALSO IN PLAY WILL BE THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS TO THE
NORTH BY MID TO LATE EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER EXPECT
THAT THE DIURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE THAN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER WITHOUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECT WINDS WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER...IN SPITE OF SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FOR NOW WINDS SEEM TO MAINLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ON THU.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MODELS BRING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. GFS...WHICH IS FASTER THAN EC...BRINGS THE TROUGH TO OUR
CWA BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH
IS PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING. ALSO EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND A
BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WILL FORM
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT TO THE KEGE AND KASE TERMINALS...HOWEVER LIMITED
FLIGHT CRITERIA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MAY BRING LOCAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO DOWN VALLEY FLOW.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST...AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TODAY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS 25 MPH
OR ABOVE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. AND IF THEY DO DEVELOP
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT
DURATION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AS WARMING CONTINUES.

BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AS A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW BRUSHES THE FORECAST
AREA. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CO FIRE ZONES 207...290...292 AND 293.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
     292-293.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...EH/JRP
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...EH

000
FXUS65 KBOU 221612
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER
COLORADO TODAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES UP TO
AROUND 500J/KG BUT MOISTURE MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL. EXPECT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EVENTUALLY SPILLING OUT OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE STORMS.

.AVIATION...VARIABLE AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
22Z BUT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS POINT LOW ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IN
LOCAL TERMINALS. AT SOME POINT MAY NEED A TEMPO FOR GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE SHOWERS BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO TODAY.
STILL A LITTLE MOISTURE AROUND...BUT WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT
CAPES AND WILL GENERALLY CAP CONVECTION TODAY. PRESSURE FALLS WITH
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL INDUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS SOME DISTANCE AWAY
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH INCREASE DURING PEAK HEATING. SWEET SPOT
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH
SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE TERRAIN...WILL KEEP THE LOW
POPS FURTHER EAST IN CASE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER MOVING INTO THE INCREASING MOISTURE THIS EVENING...BUT
EXPECT ANY EVENING ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE. STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE COOLER MOIST AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS OUT OF KANSAS TONIGHT. SITUATION FOR DENVER IS
COMPLEX...INITIALLY THE FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY BUT THEN TURN MORE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A DENVER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT MAY BE DISPLACED FURTHER WEST THAN USUAL OR JUST
LATE TO FORM BECAUSE OF THE WIND DIRECTION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
HOLE IN THE STRATUS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR THAT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WARMER TODAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA WITH A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...IT WILL BE COOLER
ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY STRATUS MAY BE
AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN IT SHOULD START TO ERODE
FM WEST TO EAST SOME IN THE AFTN. IT MAY BE TOO CAPPED FOR TSTMS
AT ALL SO WL GO WITH SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE ZONES. ON FRIDAY...THE
BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE. NOT SURE WHERE IT WILL END UP BY FRIDAY AFTN AS DRIER AIR
MIXES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR TSTMS. SFC BASED CAPES EAST OF BOUNDARY COULD CLIMB TO AROUND
1500 J/KG WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST. THE PROSPECTS OF TSTMS FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A WARM AND DRY PATTERN
TO THE REST OF THE CWFA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS IN THE DENVER AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KPUB 221035
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
435 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST BUILDING AN
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. TEMPS
EARLY THIS MORNING ARE WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH MAINLY 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AT THIS TIME. WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE NOT FAR
AWAY HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO IN THE 50S AT THIS TIME.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CURRENT FORECAST WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
STATE AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS PAC NORTHWEST LOW SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD. DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH LATE SPRING SUNSHINE FOR
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST COVERAGE AGAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS PERSIST WITH CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY HIGH BASED...PRODUCING MORE WIND AND VIRGA THAN
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. H7 TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN 8C AND 12C WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGHS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH MAINLY
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE PLAINS WHERE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS INDICATING A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH COULD
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MAIN
EFFECT OF THIS WAVE WILL BE STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ENHANCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOUNDINGS INDICATING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THURSDAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD
ON THE LONGEST. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO...TOUGH TO RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THU EVENING. BEST BET FOR A TSRA THU WILL
LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHERE SOME CLEARING
BY LATE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER INSTABILITY. WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN WARM AND CONVECTION FREE
THURSDAY...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON...SO KEPT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRYLINE DEVELOPS FRIDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND APPEARS TO STAY WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER
THROUGH FRI EVENING. FAIRLY HEALTHY CAPE (1-2K J/KG) DEVELOPS
ALONG AND EAST OF AN EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE FRI
AFTERNOON...AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EAST INTO THE
EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION SEVERE IN ANY
FORECASTS YET. FARTHER WEST...MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR LOOK TOO
DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION...AND WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
INCREASING...SUSPECT WE`LL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. FOR SAT INTO
SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHUNTS DEEPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD TOWARD KS...THOUGH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
LINGERS NEAR THE KS BORDER TO WARRANT SOME ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
FAR EAST BOTH DAYS. MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSISTING. IN FACT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN UNTIL MID-WEEK...WHEN PIECES OF THE WESTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MINOR INCREASE IN
CONVECTION TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THU WITH
MORE HIGH BASED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALS AFT 06Z WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
HELPING TO DEVELOP STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT PUB AND COS AFT 09Z.
COULD SEE RESTRICTIONS TO VIS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT COS WITH THE
ENHANCED SE LOW LEVEL FLOW.



&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW

000
FXUS65 KBOU 220958
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
358 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO TODAY.
STILL A LITTLE MOISTURE AROUND...BUT WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT
CAPES AND WILL GENERALLY CAP CONVECTION TODAY. PRESSURE FALLS WITH
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL INDUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS SOME DISTANCE AWAY
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH INCREASE DURING PEAK HEATING. SWEET SPOT
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH
SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE TERRAIN...WILL KEEP THE LOW
POPS FURTHER EAST IN CASE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER MOVING INTO THE INCREASING MOISTURE THIS EVENING...BUT
EXPECT ANY EVENING ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE. STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE COOLER MOIST AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS OUT OF KANSAS TONIGHT. SITUATION FOR DENVER IS
COMPLEX...INITIALLY THE FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY BUT THEN TURN MORE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A DENVER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT MAY BE DISPLACED FURTHER WEST THAN USUAL OR JUST
LATE TO FORM BECAUSE OF THE WIND DIRECTION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
HOLE IN THE STRATUS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR THAT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WARMER TODAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA WITH A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...IT WILL BE COOLER
ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY STRATUS MAY BE
AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN IT SHOULD START TO ERODE
FM WEST TO EAST SOME IN THE AFTN. IT MAY BE TOO CAPPED FOR TSTMS
AT ALL SO WL GO WITH SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE ZONES. ON FRIDAY...THE
BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE. NOT SURE WHERE IT WILL END UP BY FRIDAY AFTN AS DRIER AIR
MIXES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR TSTMS. SFC BASED CAPES EAST OF BOUNDARY COULD CLIMB TO AROUND
1500 J/KG WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST. THE PROSPECTS OF TSTMS FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A WARM AND DRY PATTERN
TO THE REST OF THE CWFA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS IN THE DENVER AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD

000
FXUS65 KGJT 220844
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
244 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

TODAY
SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING EXPECTED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO OUR AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE 4
TO 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

A LITTLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH
THE AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING THERE STILL EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAINS ALONG/NEAR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PERHAPS ALSO OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN CO.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMATTERING OF CLOUDS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW. THIS DRY WAVE WILL BRUSH
OUR WESTERN EDGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING FUELED BY THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE
WITH THE WAVE WILL DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL HEATING SUBSIDES THURSDAY EVENING.
ALSO IN PLAY WILL BE THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS TO THE
NORTH BY MID TO LATE EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER EXPECT
THAT THE DIURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE THAN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER WITHOUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECT WINDS WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER...IN SPITE OF SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FOR NOW WINDS SEEM TO MAINLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ON THU.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MODELS BRING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. GFS...WHICH IS FASTER THAN EC...BRINGS THE TROUGH TO OUR
CWA BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH
IS PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING. ALSO EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS NEAR/ALONG CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ALSO
BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST
AIRPORTS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO...BECOMING EVEN STRONGER BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST...AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TODAY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS 25 MPH
OR ABOVE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. AND IF THEY DO DEVELOP
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT
DURATION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AS WARMING CONTINUES.

BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AS A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW BRUSHES THE FORECAST
AREA. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CO FIRE ZONES 207...290...292 AND 293.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
     292-293.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...EH/JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...EH

000
FXUS65 KPUB 220528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...ISOLATED STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGES...TEMPS
EDGING ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER COLORADO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE RIDGE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND RIDGES THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 MPH.

AFTER A DAY OF TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY.  A PRETTY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO. LW

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A STAGNANT
PATTERN FEATURING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOL UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS PRINTING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HOW MUCH
IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS IS STILL IN QUESTION...INSTABILITY IS
WEAK AND MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION
AS WELL. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP MIXING
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CONUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENCOMPASSES THE ROCKIES. THE
MAIN ISSUES WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. EACH AFTERNOON...MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING A DRYLINE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VARY WITH DRYLINE POSITION WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
DAILY AFTERNOON DRYLINE ACTIVITY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR GRILLING ACTIVITIES
PLANNED FOR MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM APPROXIMATELY 18Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF LIVED
LOW PROBABILITY MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KCOS. IN ADDITION... THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224.

&&

$$

000
FXUS65 KGJT 220422
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1022 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SEASONAL GREEN-UP...LAND USE AGENCIES
RESPONSIBLE FOR CO FIRE ZONE 203 HAVE DETERMINED THAT THE FUELS
FOR THAT ZONE ARE NO LONGER CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ZONE 203 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 207...290...292 AND 293 ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW TOP CUMULI HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT APPEARS THAT WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAVE REDUCED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. STILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTH FACING SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THE UINTA MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNSET.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED SPEED MAXIMA FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC HAVE REACHED THE UTAH SPINE. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WRN COLORADO TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

BY DAYBREAK...HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM.  SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT FLOW STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLORADO WILL BE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. DRIER AIR GETS ADVECTED FROM ARIZONA...BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS NEAR THE PARK/GORE RANGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER GIVEN THE THERMALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS
ACROSS UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FRIDAY. OVERALL INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY...WARM...AND WINDY. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 80 DEGREES (NEAR NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS VERY LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
-SHRA OR -TSRA WILL FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 02Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH RH 15% OR LOWER...BUT SHOULD NOT
LAST FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN NOON AND 9PM. GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 207...290...292...AND 293 WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
     292-293.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...JAM

000
FXUS65 KBOU 220234
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
834 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...A FEW SPRINKLES NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL BE ENDING IN
THE NEXT HOUR. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO TRANSITION TO
LIGHT DRAINAGE TONIGHT...AND MAY EVEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WIND FORECAST WAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT JUST A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORM...AND ABOUT A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS AT SOME POINT DURING THE 22Z-02Z
TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...THE BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. MAINLY FLAT CU
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ONLY MODEST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATER THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH LINGERING CLOUDS THERE AROUND THE
LOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE OVER COLORADO WITH WEAKENING WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TURN SOUTHEAST ON THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT MORE RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY SOME MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
ALL OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.

LONG TERM...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL PROVIDE LOCAL UPSLOPE. WITH SURFACE CAPES LESS
THAN 500 J/KG...STORMS WILL BE WEAK...PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. AIRMASS
STABILIZES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURGE OF COOLER AND MOIST AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WITH PERHAPS SOME STRATUS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OF A DRAINAGE WIND TO LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. ON THURSDAY...
A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. AIRMASS ACROSS PLAINS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND A BIT MORE STABLE. WEAK SHEAR AND A BIT
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
AND NEAR FOOTHILLS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD BE WEAK
PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS
SUGGEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT WITH DRAINAGE WINDS SCOURING OUT MOST OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AND WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. STILL
SOME MOISTURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 80S. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS. ALSO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW...MAINLY EAST OF DENVER. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S. FOR THE LATER PERIODS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE DAY.
COVERAGE LOOKS FAIRLY ISOLATED...SO FOR NOW NO MENTION OF TS IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE MOST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KGJT 212344
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
544 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SEASONAL GREEN-UP...LAND USE AGENCIES
RESPONSIBLE FOR CO FIRE ZONE 203 HAVE DETERMINED THAT THE FUELS
FOR THAT ZONE ARE NO LONGER CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ZONE 203 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 207...290...292 AND 293 ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW TOP CUMULI HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT APPEARS THAT WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAVE REDUCED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. STILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTH FACING SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THE UINTA MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNSET.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED SPEED MAXIMA FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC HAVE REACHED THE UTAH SPINE. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WRN COLORADO TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

BY DAYBREAK...HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM.  SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT FLOW STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLORADO WILL BE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. DRIER AIR GETS ADVECTED FROM ARIZONA...BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS NEAR THE PARK/GORE RANGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER GIVEN THE THERMALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS
ACROSS UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FRIDAY. OVERALL INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY...WARM...AND WINDY. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 80 DEGREES (NEAR NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS VERY LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AND AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ISOLATED MOUNTAIN -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVENING.  AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE
LIMITED TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH RH 15% OR LOWER...BUT SHOULD NOT
LAST FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN NOON AND 9PM. GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 207...290...292...AND 293 WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
     292-293.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JAM

000
FXUS65 KGJT 212139
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW TOP CUMULI HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT APPEARS THAT WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAVE REDUCED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. STILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTH FACING SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THE UINTA MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNSET.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED SPEED MAXIMA FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC HAVE REACHED THE UTAH SPINE. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WRN COLORADO TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

BY DAYBREAK...HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM.  SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT FLOW STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLORADO WILL BE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. DRIER AIR GETS ADVECTED FROM ARIZONA...BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS NEAR THE PARK/GORE RANGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER GIVEN THE THERMALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS
ACROSS UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FRIDAY. OVERALL INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY...WARM...AND WINDY. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 80 DEGREES (NEAR NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS VERY LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AND AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ISOLATED MOUNTAIN -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVENING.  AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE
LIMITED TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH RH 15% OR LOWER...BUT SHOULD NOT
LAST FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN NOON AND 9PM. GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 203...207...290...292...AND 293 WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ203-207-
     290-292-293.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JAM

000
FXUS65 KPUB 212108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...ISOLATED STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGES...TEMPS
EDGING ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER COLORADO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE RIDGE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND RIDGES THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 MPH.

AFTER A DAY OF TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY.  A PRETTY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO. LW

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A STAGNANT
PATTERN FEATURING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOL UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS PRINTING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HOW MUCH
IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS IS STILL IN QUESTION...INSTABILITY IS
WEAK AND MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION
AS WELL. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP MIXING
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CONUS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENCOMPASSES THE ROCKIES. THE
MAIN ISSUES WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. EACH AFTERNOON...MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING A DRYLINE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VARY WITH DRYLINE POSITION WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
DAILY AFTERNOON DRYLINE ACTIVITY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR GRILLING ACTIVITIES
PLANNED FOR MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING ALL
3 TAF SITES.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z TODAY AND
AGAIN 17Z-03Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND
RIDGES...WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LOCALIZED MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ACTIVITY.  ALSO...WITH THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND
BURSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW

000
FXUS65 KBOU 212104
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
304 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. MAINLY FLAT CU
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ONLY MODEST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATER THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH LINGERING CLOUDS THERE AROUND THE
LOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE OVER COLORADO WITH WEAKENING WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TURN SOUTHEAST ON THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT MORE RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY SOME MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
ALL OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL PROVIDE LOCAL UPSLOPE. WITH SURFACE CAPES LESS
THAN 500 J/KG...STORMS WILL BE WEAK...PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. AIRMASS
STABILIZES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURGE OF COOLER AND MOIST AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WITH PERHAPS SOME STRATUS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OF A DRAINAGE WIND TO LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. ON THURSDAY...
A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. AIRMASS ACROSS PLAINS TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND A BIT MORE STABLE. WEAK SHEAR AND A BIT
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
AND NEAR FOOTHILLS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD BE WEAK
PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS
SUGGEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT WITH DRAINAGE WINDS SCOURING OUT MOST OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AND WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. STILL
SOME MOISTURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 80S. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS. ALSO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW...MAINLY EAST OF DENVER. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S. FOR THE LATER PERIODS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE DAY.
COVERAGE LOOKS FAIRLY ISOLATED...SO FOR NOW NO MENTION OF TS IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE MOST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KPUB 211844
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1244 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...STARTING THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN REGION AT THIS
TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT
THIS TIME. SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING SLOWLY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING
NEW MEXICO WAVE CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS LESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH BEST UVV REMAINING EAST OF THE
AREA. CONVECTION TODAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGH BASED AND LESS
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE INVERTED V PROFILES. AT ANY RATE...EXPECTING MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MTS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING
WITH THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALL CONVECTION ENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. WARMING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH WARMER LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...WARMING UP...

WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SIT OVER
THE PAC NW ON WED...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS CO. THIS
WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
STATE...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTN AND
EVE...SLANTED MORE TOWARDS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUCH AS THE
CENT MTS AND PALMER DVD. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SFC
HIGH PRES DOWN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND BACKING INTO THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS...WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR THU.

THURSDAY...E-SE SFC FLOW STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND HIGHER RH LEVELS FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE OVERDONE ON QPF AND PCPN COVERAGE...BUT TRUE AREAL COVERAGE IS A
TOUGH CALL. DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE E PLAINS AND BANKING UP AGAINST THE E MTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND
EVE HRS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PAC
NW OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHILE SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST...BUT
THE GFS AND EC MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL
SET UP. THE EC KEEPS THE DRYLINE WAVERING BACK INTO CO EACH
DAY...WHILE THE GFS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT EAST OF THE CO/KS STATE
LINE AND INTRODUCES UP TO 4 DAYS OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED AFTN AND EVE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FAR E PLAINS EACH DAY...WHILE THE REST OF CWA BAKES WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S. FOR NOW...FEEL THIS IS THE BEST
COURSE WHILE HIGHLIGHTING THE FIRE WX POTENTIAL AS THE WEEKEND
NEARS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
A BIT BETTER. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING ALL
3 TAF SITES.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP 17Z-03Z BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
...MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF VERY LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
ACTIVITY. ALSO...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW

000
FXUS65 KPUB 211723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...STARTING THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN REGION AT THIS
TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT
THIS TIME. SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING SLOWLY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING
NEW MEXICO WAVE CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS LESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH BEST UVV REMAINING EAST OF THE
AREA. CONVECTION TODAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGH BASED AND LESS
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE INVERTED V PROFILES. AT ANY RATE...EXPECTING MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MTS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING
WITH THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALL CONVECTION ENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. WARMING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH WARMER LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...WARMING UP...

WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SIT OVER
THE PAC NW ON WED...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS CO. THIS
WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
STATE...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTN AND
EVE...SLANTED MORE TOWARDS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUCH AS THE
CENT MTS AND PALMER DVD. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SFC
HIGH PRES DOWN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND BACKING INTO THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS...WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR THU.

THURSDAY...E-SE SFC FLOW STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND HIGHER RH LEVELS FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE OVERDONE ON QPF AND PCPN COVERAGE...BUT TRUE AREAL COVERAGE IS A
TOUGH CALL. DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE E PLAINS AND BANKING UP AGAINST THE E MTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND
EVE HRS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PAC
NW OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHILE SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST...BUT
THE GFS AND EC MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL
SET UP. THE EC KEEPS THE DRYLINE WAVERING BACK INTO CO EACH
DAY...WHILE THE GFS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT EAST OF THE CO/KS STATE
LINE AND INTRODUCES UP TO 4 DAYS OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED AFTN AND EVE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FAR E PLAINS EACH DAY...WHILE THE REST OF CWA BAKES WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S. FOR NOW...FEEL THIS IS THE BEST
COURSE WHILE HIGHLIGHTING THE FIRE WX POTENTIAL AS THE WEEKEND
NEARS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
A BIT BETTER. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING ALL
3 TAF SITES.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP 17Z-03Z BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
...MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF VERY LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
ACTIVITY. ALSO...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW

000
FXUS65 KBOU 211610
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE DIVIDE. WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AM OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS BUT CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAY SWING INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO ADD SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

.AVIATION...WEAK LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE THIS AM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MORE E-SE WINDS AT APA AND BJC. WILL ADJUST LATEST TAFS
ACCORDINGLY. KDEN SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AND MAY SWITCH MORE
NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TODAY
BUT MAY SEE A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK PEEL OFF THE FRONT RANGE FROM
TIME TO TIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TODAY AS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW EDGES AWAY FROM US. THERE IS STILL A PRETTY SOLID CLOUD
DECK UPSTREAM...TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK STABLE LAYER. THIS IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST...THOUGH WITH THE DRYING/WARMING I WOULD
EXPECT THAT THE AREA MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SEE FURTHER CLEARING...THEN FILL IN WITH WEAK
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT MORE
MOISTURE/LIFT FURTHER NORTH...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER. AND A BIT MORE INSTABILITY OVER THE WARMER MOUNTAINS...SO
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THERE. CONTINUED DRYING AND CLEARING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING...THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE
LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL MADE FEW CHANGES...MOST NOTABLE INCREASING
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT MORE.

LONG TERM...ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PAC
NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. SFC BASED CAPES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO NO SEVERE EXPECTED. ON
THURSDAY...A WEAK SURGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT.
IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AND WARMER IN THE MOUNTAINS...SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND A BIT MORE STABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE MDLS CONTINUE WITH A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SO JUST A
ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE AT BEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTN AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND DENVER EARLY...THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. BACK TO S/W
DRAINAGE WINDS THIS EVENING.

HYDROLOGY...NO FLOODING ISSUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KPUB 211548
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
948 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...STARTING THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN REGION AT THIS
TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT
THIS TIME. SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING SLOWLY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING
NEW MEXICO WAVE CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS LESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH BEST UVV REMAINING EAST OF THE
AREA. CONVECTION TODAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGH BASED AND LESS
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE INVERTED V PROFILES. AT ANY RATE...EXPECTING MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MTS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING
WITH THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALL CONVECTION ENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. WARMING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH WARMER LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...WARMING UP...

WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SIT OVER
THE PAC NW ON WED...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS CO. THIS
WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
STATE...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTN AND
EVE...SLANTED MORE TOWARDS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUCH AS THE
CENT MTS AND PALMER DVD. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SFC
HIGH PRES DOWN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND BACKING INTO THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS...WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR THU.

THURSDAY...E-SE SFC FLOW STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND HIGHER RH LEVELS FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE OVERDONE ON QPF AND PCPN COVERAGE...BUT TRUE AREAL COVERAGE IS A
TOUGH CALL. DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE E PLAINS AND BANKING UP AGAINST THE E MTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND
EVE HRS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PAC
NW OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHILE SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST...BUT
THE GFS AND EC MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL
SET UP. THE EC KEEPS THE DRYLINE WAVERING BACK INTO CO EACH
DAY...WHILE THE GFS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT EAST OF THE CO/KS STATE
LINE AND INTRODUCES UP TO 4 DAYS OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED AFTN AND EVE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FAR E PLAINS EACH DAY...WHILE THE REST OF CWA BAKES WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S. FOR NOW...FEEL THIS IS THE BEST
COURSE WHILE HIGHLIGHTING THE FIRE WX POTENTIAL AS THE WEEKEND
NEARS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
A BIT BETTER. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. STORMS TODAY WILL ALSO BE MORE HIGHER BASED
SUPPORTING MORE WIND AND VIRGA THAN RAINFALL. NOT CONFIDENT ANY
STORMS WILL IMPACT TAF SITES...THOUGH WILL KEEP VCSH AT ALS AND COS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW