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000
FXUS65 KGJT 240636
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1136 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AS THE SUNSET AND THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE PULLED DOWN
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. THE NW CO MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. ALL THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY
MAY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 20-35 MPH.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AGAIN ON MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 6 INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFTER 09Z THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 12Z-16Z.
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COMMON...INCLUDING THE SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES AT KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX. SNOW LOWERING
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATAD TAF
SITES...INCLUDING KGJT...KRIL AND KMTJ. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
RISING OR DISSIPATING CIGS IS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-
     013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PF


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000
FXUS65 KPUB 240524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1024 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ADJUSTED NDFD TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH
DOWN THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL LAST
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
TOMOROW AFTERNOON AT KCOS AND KPUB.

LIFR WILL BE LIKELY NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE CONTDVD. HEAVY SNOW
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE C MTN REGION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1024 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ADJUSTED NDFD TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH
DOWN THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL LAST
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
TOMOROW AFTERNOON AT KCOS AND KPUB.

LIFR WILL BE LIKELY NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE CONTDVD. HEAVY SNOW
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE C MTN REGION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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000
FXUS65 KBOU 240503
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1003 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SNOWFALL HAS EASED ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AS MANY
WEATHER CAMS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY INDICATING LIGHT
SPORATIC SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME. THE MTN TOP LAYER HAS DRIED AND
STABILIZED SOME RESULTING IN THIS DROP OFF IN PRECIP. WINDS
LIKEWISE HAVE WEAKENED THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH MTN
REPORTING SITES ARE STILL MEASURING GUSTS IN THE 35-45KT RANGE.
MEANWHILE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ON THE PLAINS WITH ONLY A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES HANGING ON OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP AGAINST THE
FOOTHILLS. THEY TOO SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE COLD POOL CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION
BLOSSOMING OVER ERN IDAHO/WRN WYOMING AT THIS TIME. QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE. MODELS SHOW THIS EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIP RACING
SOUTHEAST AND REACHING NORTHWEST COLORADO BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
MODELS TRACK THIS LIFT AND MOISTURE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND FINALLY
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY MID-MORNING MONDAY. WITH
ITS PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL RESUMING IN OUR MOUNTAIN AREAS
AND PROBABLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ON THE HIGHER PASSES/RIDGES DURING THIS PERIOD. IN
ADDITION SHOULD SEE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
10Z/TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45KTS PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW
LEADING TO POOR VISIBILITIES ON THE HIGH PASSES. FOR THESE
REASONS...WILL HANG ONTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING EVEN IN THE
MIDST OF THE CURRENT LULL IN PRECIP AND WIND. FINALLY SHOULD SEE
SWLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NWLY AND STRONGER WITH PASSAGE OF THE
WEATHER DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT SHOULD DOWNSLOPE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING LEE SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW 45-55KT CROSS MTN W-NWLY FLOW MOVING DOWNSLOPE AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER FOOTHILLS BY 12Z...IF NOT SOONER. COULD SEE
GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR THE
BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR RIGHT NOW. BEST OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS.
THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD OVER MOST
OF THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE CWA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE SPEEDS ARE 40 TO 70 KNOTS AND INCREASING BY 00Z MONDAY
AFTERNOON LATE. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD QG MOTION FOR THE
CWA BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FOR ALL THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR
MOISTURE...IT STAYS PRETTY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. AFTER THIS EVENING`S CONVECTION...THE PLAINS DO NOT HAVE
A LOT OF MOISTURE OVER THEM. IT INCREASES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
JUST EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING...THEN MOISTURE IS
PRETTY GOOD OVER ALL THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
TAD OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR POPS...WILL GO
WIDESPREAD FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY CONTINUING THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THREE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES. NO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...10-30%S.
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 20%S FOR THE PLAINS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO A TAD
COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRING OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK. STILL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING UPSTREAM DURING THE WEEK WITH FLOW GOING MORE WESTERLY AS
IT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND. STILL HUGE DISAGREEMENTS
ON THE EXACT DETAIL OF HOW FAR NORTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH BIG
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND ANY THREAT OF SNOW FROM THURSDAY
ON.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TO BEEF UP THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE RETREATS NORTHWARD MORE SLOWLY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND STABILITY
GOES AWAY AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT KICKS IN. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
WIND ARE BOTH SUBSTANTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS MOIST WARM
ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS...SO THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. FOR THE PLAIN I REINTRODUCED SOME 10-20
PERCENT CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
LATE TUESDAY...BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD ONLY BE LIGHT
SHOWERS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN
WAVE. THIS LOOKS BEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE
PROSPECTS FOR AMPLIFICATION WILL BE LESS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT HIGH
WIND THREAT FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PLAINS
WILL BE WINDY BUT MAINLY DUE TO MIXING AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
HIGH WIND THREAT THERE EXCEPT SOME STEADY  THE MOUNTAIN WAVE HOT
SPOTS RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS. WEDNESDAY IS A WARM DAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS.

WE STILL HAVE THE SAME DILEMMA WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND JET FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE
TO HOLD THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY...THEN
SAGGING A LITTLE BY FRIDAY...THEN PULLING BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AS THE FLOW ALOFT GOES MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND.
CRITICAL QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES
AND HOW SOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE WITH MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLE RUNS COLDER...AND SOME QUITE COLD. FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS MOS HAS A HIGH OF 70 IN DENVER FRIDAY WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF MOS BRING THE COLD AIR IN STRONGLY AND HAS A
HIGH OF 27. SINCE THESE FRONTS DO TEND TO DROP SOUTH MORE THAN THE
MODELS SHOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE DOWNWARD BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. IT COULD EASILY BE 10 DEGREES WARMER...OR 20
DEGREES COLDER...OR PERHAPS BOTH SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA. THERE IS
ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS THE JET OVERRUNS THE
FRONT...BUT ODDS OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN OUR AREA CONTINUE TO
LOOK PRETTY SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. DO NOT SEE ANY SNOWFALL IN THE METRO AREA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. THEN PARTS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
INCLUDING DIA COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. AS FOR WINDS...TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 7-16KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH KBJC NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH TOWARDS MORNING.
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT
10-20KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 240503
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1003 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SNOWFALL HAS EASED ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AS MANY
WEATHER CAMS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY INDICATING LIGHT
SPORATIC SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME. THE MTN TOP LAYER HAS DRIED AND
STABILIZED SOME RESULTING IN THIS DROP OFF IN PRECIP. WINDS
LIKEWISE HAVE WEAKENED THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH MTN
REPORTING SITES ARE STILL MEASURING GUSTS IN THE 35-45KT RANGE.
MEANWHILE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ON THE PLAINS WITH ONLY A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES HANGING ON OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP AGAINST THE
FOOTHILLS. THEY TOO SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE COLD POOL CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION
BLOSSOMING OVER ERN IDAHO/WRN WYOMING AT THIS TIME. QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE. MODELS SHOW THIS EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIP RACING
SOUTHEAST AND REACHING NORTHWEST COLORADO BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
MODELS TRACK THIS LIFT AND MOISTURE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND FINALLY
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY MID-MORNING MONDAY. WITH
ITS PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL RESUMING IN OUR MOUNTAIN AREAS
AND PROBABLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ON THE HIGHER PASSES/RIDGES DURING THIS PERIOD. IN
ADDITION SHOULD SEE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
10Z/TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45KTS PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW
LEADING TO POOR VISIBILITIES ON THE HIGH PASSES. FOR THESE
REASONS...WILL HANG ONTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING EVEN IN THE
MIDST OF THE CURRENT LULL IN PRECIP AND WIND. FINALLY SHOULD SEE
SWLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NWLY AND STRONGER WITH PASSAGE OF THE
WEATHER DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT SHOULD DOWNSLOPE WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING LEE SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW 45-55KT CROSS MTN W-NWLY FLOW MOVING DOWNSLOPE AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER FOOTHILLS BY 12Z...IF NOT SOONER. COULD SEE
GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR THE
BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR RIGHT NOW. BEST OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS.
THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD OVER MOST
OF THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE CWA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE SPEEDS ARE 40 TO 70 KNOTS AND INCREASING BY 00Z MONDAY
AFTERNOON LATE. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD QG MOTION FOR THE
CWA BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FOR ALL THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR
MOISTURE...IT STAYS PRETTY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. AFTER THIS EVENING`S CONVECTION...THE PLAINS DO NOT HAVE
A LOT OF MOISTURE OVER THEM. IT INCREASES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
JUST EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING...THEN MOISTURE IS
PRETTY GOOD OVER ALL THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
TAD OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR POPS...WILL GO
WIDESPREAD FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY CONTINUING THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THREE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES. NO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...10-30%S.
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 20%S FOR THE PLAINS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO A TAD
COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRING OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK. STILL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING UPSTREAM DURING THE WEEK WITH FLOW GOING MORE WESTERLY AS
IT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND. STILL HUGE DISAGREEMENTS
ON THE EXACT DETAIL OF HOW FAR NORTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH BIG
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND ANY THREAT OF SNOW FROM THURSDAY
ON.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TO BEEF UP THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE RETREATS NORTHWARD MORE SLOWLY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND STABILITY
GOES AWAY AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT KICKS IN. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
WIND ARE BOTH SUBSTANTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS MOIST WARM
ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS...SO THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. FOR THE PLAIN I REINTRODUCED SOME 10-20
PERCENT CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
LATE TUESDAY...BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD ONLY BE LIGHT
SHOWERS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN
WAVE. THIS LOOKS BEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE
PROSPECTS FOR AMPLIFICATION WILL BE LESS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT HIGH
WIND THREAT FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PLAINS
WILL BE WINDY BUT MAINLY DUE TO MIXING AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
HIGH WIND THREAT THERE EXCEPT SOME STEADY  THE MOUNTAIN WAVE HOT
SPOTS RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS. WEDNESDAY IS A WARM DAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS.

WE STILL HAVE THE SAME DILEMMA WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND JET FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE
TO HOLD THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY...THEN
SAGGING A LITTLE BY FRIDAY...THEN PULLING BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AS THE FLOW ALOFT GOES MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND.
CRITICAL QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES
AND HOW SOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE WITH MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLE RUNS COLDER...AND SOME QUITE COLD. FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS MOS HAS A HIGH OF 70 IN DENVER FRIDAY WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF MOS BRING THE COLD AIR IN STRONGLY AND HAS A
HIGH OF 27. SINCE THESE FRONTS DO TEND TO DROP SOUTH MORE THAN THE
MODELS SHOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE DOWNWARD BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. IT COULD EASILY BE 10 DEGREES WARMER...OR 20
DEGREES COLDER...OR PERHAPS BOTH SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA. THERE IS
ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS THE JET OVERRUNS THE
FRONT...BUT ODDS OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN OUR AREA CONTINUE TO
LOOK PRETTY SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. DO NOT SEE ANY SNOWFALL IN THE METRO AREA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. THEN PARTS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
INCLUDING DIA COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. AS FOR WINDS...TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 7-16KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH KBJC NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH TOWARDS MORNING.
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT
10-20KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ADJUSTED NDFD TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH
DOWN THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SOME -SHSN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AT 22Z...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KCOS AND KPUB UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END 00Z-01Z AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BOTH TERMINALS FROM 01Z THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MON. AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS -
SHSN STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM KMYP NORTHWARD WILL
BECOME OBSCURED BY SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON. FROM KMYP SOUTH TO KCPW...SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...ALTHOUGH PEAKS AND HIGH PASSES WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MON.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE -SHSN END 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. -SHSN WILL REDEVELOP MON
AFTER 18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES UNTIL 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 240150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ADJUSTED NDFD TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH
DOWN THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SOME -SHSN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AT 22Z...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KCOS AND KPUB UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END 00Z-01Z AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BOTH TERMINALS FROM 01Z THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MON. AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS -
SHSN STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM KMYP NORTHWARD WILL
BECOME OBSCURED BY SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON. FROM KMYP SOUTH TO KCPW...SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...ALTHOUGH PEAKS AND HIGH PASSES WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MON.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE -SHSN END 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. -SHSN WILL REDEVELOP MON
AFTER 18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES UNTIL 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 240150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ADJUSTED NDFD TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH
DOWN THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SOME -SHSN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AT 22Z...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KCOS AND KPUB UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END 00Z-01Z AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BOTH TERMINALS FROM 01Z THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MON. AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS -
SHSN STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM KMYP NORTHWARD WILL
BECOME OBSCURED BY SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON. FROM KMYP SOUTH TO KCPW...SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...ALTHOUGH PEAKS AND HIGH PASSES WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MON.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE -SHSN END 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. -SHSN WILL REDEVELOP MON
AFTER 18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES UNTIL 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 240150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ADJUSTED NDFD TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH
DOWN THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SOME -SHSN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AT 22Z...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KCOS AND KPUB UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END 00Z-01Z AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BOTH TERMINALS FROM 01Z THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MON. AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS -
SHSN STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM KMYP NORTHWARD WILL
BECOME OBSCURED BY SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON. FROM KMYP SOUTH TO KCPW...SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...ALTHOUGH PEAKS AND HIGH PASSES WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MON.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE -SHSN END 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. -SHSN WILL REDEVELOP MON
AFTER 18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES UNTIL 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AS THE SUNSET AND THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE PULLED DOWN
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. THE NW CO MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. ALL THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY
MAY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 20-35 MPH.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AGAIN ON MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 6 INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-
     013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AS THE SUNSET AND THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE PULLED DOWN
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. THE NW CO MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. ALL THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY
MAY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 20-35 MPH.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AGAIN ON MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 6 INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-
     013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AS THE SUNSET AND THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE PULLED DOWN
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. THE NW CO MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. ALL THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY
MAY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 20-35 MPH.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AGAIN ON MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 6 INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-
     013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AS THE SUNSET AND THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE PULLED DOWN
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. THE NW CO MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. ALL THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY
MAY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 20-35 MPH.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AGAIN ON MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 6 INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-
     013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 232234
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL
SIDE WITH COOLER BLENDED CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SOME -SHSN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AT 22Z...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KCOS AND KPUB UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END 00Z-01Z AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BOTH TERMINALS FROM 01Z THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MON. AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS -
SHSN STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM KMYP NORTHWARD WILL
BECOME OBSCURED BY SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON. FROM KMYP SOUTH TO KCPW...SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...ALTHOUGH PEAKS AND HIGH PASSES WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MON.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE -SHSN END 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. -SHSN WILL REDEVELOP MON
AFTER 18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232234
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL
SIDE WITH COOLER BLENDED CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SOME -SHSN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AT 22Z...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KCOS AND KPUB UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END 00Z-01Z AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BOTH TERMINALS FROM 01Z THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MON. AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS -
SHSN STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM KMYP NORTHWARD WILL
BECOME OBSCURED BY SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON. FROM KMYP SOUTH TO KCPW...SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...ALTHOUGH PEAKS AND HIGH PASSES WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MON.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE -SHSN END 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. -SHSN WILL REDEVELOP MON
AFTER 18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 232234
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL
SIDE WITH COOLER BLENDED CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SOME -SHSN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AT 22Z...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KCOS AND KPUB UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END 00Z-01Z AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BOTH TERMINALS FROM 01Z THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MON. AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS -
SHSN STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM KMYP NORTHWARD WILL
BECOME OBSCURED BY SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON. FROM KMYP SOUTH TO KCPW...SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...ALTHOUGH PEAKS AND HIGH PASSES WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MON.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE -SHSN END 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. -SHSN WILL REDEVELOP MON
AFTER 18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 232234
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL
SIDE WITH COOLER BLENDED CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SOME -SHSN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AT 22Z...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KCOS AND KPUB UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END 00Z-01Z AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BOTH TERMINALS FROM 01Z THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MON. AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS -
SHSN STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM KMYP NORTHWARD WILL
BECOME OBSCURED BY SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON. FROM KMYP SOUTH TO KCPW...SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...ALTHOUGH PEAKS AND HIGH PASSES WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MON.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE -SHSN END 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. -SHSN WILL REDEVELOP MON
AFTER 18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 232229
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR RIGHT NOW. BEST OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS.
THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD OVER MOST
OF THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE CWA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE SPEEDS ARE 40 TO 70 KNOTS AND INCREASING BY 00Z MONDAY
AFTERNOON LATE. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD QG MOTION FOR THE
CWA BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FOR ALL THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR
MOISTURE...IT STAYS PRETTY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. AFTER THIS EVENING`S CONVECTION...THE PLAINS DO NOT HAVE
A LOT OF MOISTURE OVER THEM. IT INCREASES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
JUST EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING...THEN MOISTURE IS
PRETTY GOOD OVER ALL THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
TAD OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR POPS...WILL GO
WIDESPREAD FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY CONTINUING THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THREE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES. NO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...10-30%S.
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 20%S FOR THE PLAINS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO A TAD
COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRING OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK. STILL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING UPSTREAM DURING THE WEEK WITH FLOW GOING MORE WESTERLY AS
IT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND. STILL HUGE DISAGREEMENTS
ON THE EXACT DETAIL OF HOW FAR NORTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH BIG
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND ANY THREAT OF SNOW FROM THURSDAY
ON.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TO BEEF UP THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE RETREATS NORTHWARD MORE SLOWLY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND STABILITY
GOES AWAY AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT KICKS IN. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
WIND ARE BOTH SUBSTANTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS MOIST WARM
ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS...SO THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. FOR THE PLAIN I REINTRODUCED SOME 10-20
PERCENT CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
LATE TUESDAY...BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD ONLY BE LIGHT
SHOWERS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN
WAVE. THIS LOOKS BEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE
PROSPECTS FOR AMPLIFICATION WILL BE LESS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT HIGH
WIND THREAT FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PLAINS
WILL BE WINDY BUT MAINLY DUE TO MIXING AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
HIGH WIND THREAT THERE EXCEPT SOME STEADY  THE MOUNTAIN WAVE HOT
SPOTS RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS. WEDNESDAY IS A WARM DAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS.

WE STILL HAVE THE SAME DILEMMA WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND JET FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE
TO HOLD THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY...THEN
SAGGING A LITTLE BY FRIDAY...THEN PULLING BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AS THE FLOW ALOFT GOES MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND.
CRITICAL QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES
AND HOW SOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE WITH MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLE RUNS COLDER...AND SOME QUITE COLD. FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS MOS HAS A HIGH OF 70 IN DENVER FRIDAY WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF MOS BRING THE COLD AIR IN STRONGLY AND HAS A
HIGH OF 27. SINCE THESE FRONTS DO TEND TO DROP SOUTH MORE THAN THE
MODELS SHOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE DOWNWARD BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. IT COULD EASILY BE 10 DEGREES WARMER...OR 20
DEGREES COLDER...OR PERHAPS BOTH SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA. THERE IS
ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS THE JET OVERRUNS THE
FRONT...BUT ODDS OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN OUR AREA CONTINUE TO
LOOK PRETTY SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRETTY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DECREASING BY MID
EVENING. THEY EVEN GET MORE WESTERLY INSTEAD OF NORMAL DRAINAGE.
PRETTY STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES RETURN BY MID MORNING MONDAY. THE
CEILINGS COULD GET DOWN TO BKN040 THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING...THEN
AGAIN AFTER 19Z ON MONDAY WITH A PASSING SHSN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 232229
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR RIGHT NOW. BEST OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS.
THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD OVER MOST
OF THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE CWA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE SPEEDS ARE 40 TO 70 KNOTS AND INCREASING BY 00Z MONDAY
AFTERNOON LATE. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD QG MOTION FOR THE
CWA BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FOR ALL THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR
MOISTURE...IT STAYS PRETTY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. AFTER THIS EVENING`S CONVECTION...THE PLAINS DO NOT HAVE
A LOT OF MOISTURE OVER THEM. IT INCREASES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
JUST EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING...THEN MOISTURE IS
PRETTY GOOD OVER ALL THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
TAD OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR POPS...WILL GO
WIDESPREAD FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY CONTINUING THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THREE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES. NO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...10-30%S.
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 20%S FOR THE PLAINS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO A TAD
COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRING OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK. STILL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING UPSTREAM DURING THE WEEK WITH FLOW GOING MORE WESTERLY AS
IT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND. STILL HUGE DISAGREEMENTS
ON THE EXACT DETAIL OF HOW FAR NORTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH BIG
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND ANY THREAT OF SNOW FROM THURSDAY
ON.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TO BEEF UP THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE RETREATS NORTHWARD MORE SLOWLY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND STABILITY
GOES AWAY AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT KICKS IN. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
WIND ARE BOTH SUBSTANTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS MOIST WARM
ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS...SO THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. FOR THE PLAIN I REINTRODUCED SOME 10-20
PERCENT CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
LATE TUESDAY...BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD ONLY BE LIGHT
SHOWERS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN
WAVE. THIS LOOKS BEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...THEN IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE
PROSPECTS FOR AMPLIFICATION WILL BE LESS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT HIGH
WIND THREAT FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PLAINS
WILL BE WINDY BUT MAINLY DUE TO MIXING AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
HIGH WIND THREAT THERE EXCEPT SOME STEADY  THE MOUNTAIN WAVE HOT
SPOTS RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS. WEDNESDAY IS A WARM DAY WITH
DECREASING WINDS.

WE STILL HAVE THE SAME DILEMMA WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND JET FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE
TO HOLD THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY...THEN
SAGGING A LITTLE BY FRIDAY...THEN PULLING BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AS THE FLOW ALOFT GOES MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND.
CRITICAL QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES
AND HOW SOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE WITH MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLE RUNS COLDER...AND SOME QUITE COLD. FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS MOS HAS A HIGH OF 70 IN DENVER FRIDAY WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF MOS BRING THE COLD AIR IN STRONGLY AND HAS A
HIGH OF 27. SINCE THESE FRONTS DO TEND TO DROP SOUTH MORE THAN THE
MODELS SHOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE DOWNWARD BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. IT COULD EASILY BE 10 DEGREES WARMER...OR 20
DEGREES COLDER...OR PERHAPS BOTH SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA. THERE IS
ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS THE JET OVERRUNS THE
FRONT...BUT ODDS OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN OUR AREA CONTINUE TO
LOOK PRETTY SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRETTY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DECREASING BY MID
EVENING. THEY EVEN GET MORE WESTERLY INSTEAD OF NORMAL DRAINAGE.
PRETTY STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES RETURN BY MID MORNING MONDAY. THE
CEILINGS COULD GET DOWN TO BKN040 THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING...THEN
AGAIN AFTER 19Z ON MONDAY WITH A PASSING SHSN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-
     018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-
     018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 232154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-
     018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-
     018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-
     018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-
     018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231912
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1212 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH RADAR RETURNS SHRINKING TO THE EAST...WE HAVE PULLED DOWN THE
ADVISORIES IN FAR WESTERN COLORADO FOR THE ROAN/TAVAPUTS
PLATEAU...AND THE MONTROSE-GUNNISON AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO CENTRAL AZ-NM. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED NEAR PAGOSA-WOLF CREEK PASS EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR THE EXITING FRONT. THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE HAD PASSED
INTO SE CO AND THE SECOND WAS WORKING OVER NW CO THIS AFTERNOON.
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS DISORGANIZED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS SYSTEM BUT
STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL
REMAINS AROUND 5000FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ADVISORIES IN AND AROUND THE NW SAN JUAN MTNS
WILL END THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF CERRO SUMMIT AND RED MTN PASS UNTIL
SUNSET. THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK MTNS TOO ARE NOT FAVORED TO
RECEIVE MUCH SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO MAY
PULL DOWN THE WARNINGS THERE SOMETIME THIS EVENING. FOG MAY FORM
IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR...ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND ALONG N-FACING
SLOPES IN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE GRAND MESA...WEST ELKS...NW SAN JUANS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE
PERSISTENTLY FORECAST TO BE ON SUB-ADVISORY...2-5 INCHES...THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT PERIODS OF VIS BLO 1SM CIGS BLO 010
THROUGH 00Z...THEN VIS BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 025 THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECT FOG TO
FORM IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN TOPS AND NORTH- FACING SLOPES TO
REMAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATES...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231800
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO CENTRAL AZ-NM. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED NEAR PAGOSA-WOLF CREEK PASS EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR THE EXITING FRONT. THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE HAD PASSED
INTO SE CO AND THE SECOND WAS WORKING OVER NW CO THIS AFTERNOON.
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS DISORGANIZED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS SYSTEM BUT
STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL
REMAINS AROUND 5000FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ADVISORIES IN AND AROUND THE NW SAN JUAN MTNS
WILL END THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF CERRO SUMMIT AND RED MTN PASS UNTIL
SUNSET. THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK MTNS TOO ARE NOT FAVORED TO
RECEIVE MUCH SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO MAY
PULL DOWN THE WARNINGS THERE SOMETIME THIS EVENING. FOG MAY FORM
IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR...ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND ALONG N-FACING
SLOPES IN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE GRAND MESA...WEST ELKS...NW SAN JUANS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE
PERSISTENTLY FORECAST TO BE ON SUB-ADVISORY...2-5 INCHES...THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT PERIODS OF VIS BLO 1SM CIGS BLO 010
THROUGH 00Z...THEN VIS BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 025 THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECT FOG TO
FORM IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN TOPS AND NORTH- FACING SLOPES TO
REMAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231800
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO CENTRAL AZ-NM. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED NEAR PAGOSA-WOLF CREEK PASS EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR THE EXITING FRONT. THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE HAD PASSED
INTO SE CO AND THE SECOND WAS WORKING OVER NW CO THIS AFTERNOON.
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS DISORGANIZED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS SYSTEM BUT
STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL
REMAINS AROUND 5000FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ADVISORIES IN AND AROUND THE NW SAN JUAN MTNS
WILL END THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF CERRO SUMMIT AND RED MTN PASS UNTIL
SUNSET. THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK MTNS TOO ARE NOT FAVORED TO
RECEIVE MUCH SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO MAY
PULL DOWN THE WARNINGS THERE SOMETIME THIS EVENING. FOG MAY FORM
IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR...ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND ALONG N-FACING
SLOPES IN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE GRAND MESA...WEST ELKS...NW SAN JUANS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE
PERSISTENTLY FORECAST TO BE ON SUB-ADVISORY...2-5 INCHES...THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT PERIODS OF VIS BLO 1SM CIGS BLO 010
THROUGH 00Z...THEN VIS BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 025 THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECT FOG TO
FORM IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN TOPS AND NORTH- FACING SLOPES TO
REMAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231722
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...QUICK BURST OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING
ALONG THE CONTDVD BASED ON WEB CAMS.  HAVE EVEN SEEN PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
SAGUACHE AND JUST SOUTH VILLA GROVE IN CDOT CAMS.  MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STARTING TO SEE SNOW FILL IN
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 4 AM.

AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS ARE A LOT HEAVIER HANDED WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS A LITTLE SHARPER...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK MORE NORTHERLY...AND EVEN A TAD
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 12-13Z...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH AT TIMES.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RACE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THROUGH 15Z...THEN ACROSS THE NRN RATON RIDGE AND LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z.  NAM12 AND
ESPECIALLY ITS 06Z RUN HAS REALLY COME IN HOT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE SE MTS...INDICATING 5-10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS SHOWS GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES.  RAP13 HAS AROUND 2-
4 INCHES ACROSS NRN EL PASO...AND 1-6 ACROSS THE SE MTS/SRN I-25
CORRIDOR.  WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY CORRECT IN KEEPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ONCE
THE MAIN UPPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.  THAT SAID...HAVE
SEEN CASES LIKE THIS WHERE A PERSISTENT NARROW BAND CAN ACCUMULATE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW...WHILE A COUPLE MILES EITHER SIDE GET
NEXT TO NOTHING.  SO THE CONVECTIVE WILD CARD WILL BE A CHALLENGE
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. EITHER WAY...NAM12 SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM TOO MUCH CONVECTION IN THE MODEL RESULTING IN AMOUNTS
THAT LOOK TOO HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD.  HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS A
RAP AND HRRR BLEND FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEAVY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAILING BACK SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING WEAKENS.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
OROGRAPHIC SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.  CURRENT
SET OF HEADLINES PARES OUT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AT 5 PM AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BY 11 PM
THIS EVENING.  SUSPECT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN
SOONER...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AM HESITANT TO MODIFY ENDING TIMES JUST YET.  CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN HEADLINES ABOVE 11KFT CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE EVENT GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SNOW EVEN THOUGH IT MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE SE MTS BY
MIDNIGHT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND POPS(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES).

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS)...EXPECT A
BASICALLY DRY AND MILD METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN TO GRACE THE
CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...LOW-GRADE TO NIL POPS AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO PROJECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

THEN...AS BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND...PROJECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON-PLACE IN
COMBINATION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...RECENT GFS40 AND DGEX SOLUTIONS INDICATE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

HOWEVER...THE DGEX...ECMWF AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

FINALLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN AREA OF SNOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF KCOS AND KPUB...AND WHILE
BOTH SITES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED -SHSN REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THE
NEXT 24 HRS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS BOTH TERMINALS. AT
KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THREAT OF -SHSN HAS JUST ABOUT
ENDED WITH MOST SNOWFALL REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SANGRES/WETS/SRN I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY MVFR/IFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ059-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231722
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1022 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...QUICK BURST OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING
ALONG THE CONTDVD BASED ON WEB CAMS.  HAVE EVEN SEEN PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
SAGUACHE AND JUST SOUTH VILLA GROVE IN CDOT CAMS.  MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STARTING TO SEE SNOW FILL IN
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 4 AM.

AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS ARE A LOT HEAVIER HANDED WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS A LITTLE SHARPER...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK MORE NORTHERLY...AND EVEN A TAD
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 12-13Z...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH AT TIMES.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RACE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THROUGH 15Z...THEN ACROSS THE NRN RATON RIDGE AND LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z.  NAM12 AND
ESPECIALLY ITS 06Z RUN HAS REALLY COME IN HOT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE SE MTS...INDICATING 5-10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS SHOWS GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES.  RAP13 HAS AROUND 2-
4 INCHES ACROSS NRN EL PASO...AND 1-6 ACROSS THE SE MTS/SRN I-25
CORRIDOR.  WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY CORRECT IN KEEPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ONCE
THE MAIN UPPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.  THAT SAID...HAVE
SEEN CASES LIKE THIS WHERE A PERSISTENT NARROW BAND CAN ACCUMULATE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW...WHILE A COUPLE MILES EITHER SIDE GET
NEXT TO NOTHING.  SO THE CONVECTIVE WILD CARD WILL BE A CHALLENGE
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. EITHER WAY...NAM12 SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM TOO MUCH CONVECTION IN THE MODEL RESULTING IN AMOUNTS
THAT LOOK TOO HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD.  HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS A
RAP AND HRRR BLEND FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEAVY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAILING BACK SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING WEAKENS.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
OROGRAPHIC SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.  CURRENT
SET OF HEADLINES PARES OUT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AT 5 PM AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BY 11 PM
THIS EVENING.  SUSPECT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN
SOONER...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AM HESITANT TO MODIFY ENDING TIMES JUST YET.  CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN HEADLINES ABOVE 11KFT CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE EVENT GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SNOW EVEN THOUGH IT MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE SE MTS BY
MIDNIGHT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND POPS(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES).

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS)...EXPECT A
BASICALLY DRY AND MILD METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN TO GRACE THE
CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...LOW-GRADE TO NIL POPS AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO PROJECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

THEN...AS BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND...PROJECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON-PLACE IN
COMBINATION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...RECENT GFS40 AND DGEX SOLUTIONS INDICATE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

HOWEVER...THE DGEX...ECMWF AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

FINALLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN AREA OF SNOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF KCOS AND KPUB...AND WHILE
BOTH SITES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED -SHSN REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THE
NEXT 24 HRS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS BOTH TERMINALS. AT
KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THREAT OF -SHSN HAS JUST ABOUT
ENDED WITH MOST SNOWFALL REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SANGRES/WETS/SRN I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY MVFR/IFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ059-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231654
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
954 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NOT MUCH SNOW FALLING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY RIGHT NOW.  THE NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE PLAINS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK
UP RIGHT NOW. WIND FORECAST IN THE GFE GRIDS LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND MOUNTAIN POPS AND BLOWING SNOW
AREAS TOO. NOTHING HUGE. HOWEVER...WILL KILL THE HIGHLIGHTS IN
NORTH AND MIDDLE PARK...AND EVEN IF SNOW BECOMES LIKELY AGAIN...
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONGEST WAVE OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE NOTED
IN FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO/NORTHEAST UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHICH
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. IN BETWEEN...
THERE IS SLIGHT DRYING SO WILL SEE A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ON THE
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WAS BLOSSOMING ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA
AND THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF DENVER THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN FEATURE AS LARGE SCALE LIFT IS STILL
SEEN IN THE Q-G FIELDS THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL LATEST PROFILER
DATA SHOWS WINDS A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK
WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP REDEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTH.
COULD SEE A COUPLE QUICK INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO
INTENSITY OF PRECIP ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA...MAINLY ABOVE 5500
FEET WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH.

OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END BY MID MORNING AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND SOME
DRYING OCCURS BEHIND FIRST WAVE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MOST AREAS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SNOW DUE TO RELATIVELY
LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. AGAIN THESE WOULD FAVOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WOULD ALSO SEE A KICK UP OF SNOW INTENSITY WITH
MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO GETTING UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING THEN AS
AIRMASS STABILIZES...ONLY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW REDEVELOP
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT OCCURRED IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW SO WILL
LEAVE WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GENERALLY LOOK FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
TODAY AND ANOTHER 2-4 TONIGHT ON AVERAGE ABOVE 9000 FEET.

FINALLY...SHOULD SEE THE WIND INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS
MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY PROFILE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE BUT STILL
MARGINAL WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
AREAS RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
30-50 MPH RANGE. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE WEAK SO THAT
SHOULD HELP THE STRONGER WINDS STAY UP HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON MON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS.  MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL IMPROVE IN THE MTNS WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SO SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW THRU
THE DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MID LVL MOISTURE AND PASSAGE
OF DISTURBANCE IN THE AFTN TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF
-SHSN OVER NERN CO. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. HIGHS
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER AS READINGS STAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS MON MORNING WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH
WIND CRITERIA IN THE TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS.

BY MON NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH LAPSE
RATES BEGIN TO STABILIZE THUS SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.  ALTHOUGH A
MTN TOP STABLE LYR WILL BE PRESENT COMPONENT ALONG WINDS ARE ONLY
FCST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE SO THREAT OF HIGH WINDS LOOKS
LOW AT THIS TIME.  ON TUE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
MTNS IN NWLY FLOW HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR SO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS AT TIMES.  850-700 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR READINGS TO RISE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE POOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MTNS. MEANWHILE LATEST DATA SUGGEST AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS STG MTN WAVE DEVELOPS AND
COMBINES WITH DECENT LOW LVL PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMPONENT ALONG
WINDS ARE FCST TO BE AOA 65 KTS BY 12Z WED. AS FOR TEMPS WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW INCREASING ON WED THIS MAY LEAD TO MUCH
WARMER HIGHS ESPECIALLY ALNG THE FRONT RANGE AS READINGS APPROACH
60 DEGREES. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS READINGS MAY
STAY IN THE LOWER 50S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.

BY THANKSGIVING DAY THERE IS NO AGREEMENT AT ALL BETWEEN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS.  THE ECMWF HAS FLIP FLOPPED BACK TO ITS PREVIOUS
SOLUTION OF A FEW DAYS AGO AS IT BRINGS A CDFNT INTO NERN CO DURING
THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS STG DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS NERN CO
WITH THE FNT STAYING WAY OFF THE EAST OF THE AREA.  TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS EVEN FURTHER THE GEM AND NOGAPS SHOW A STG CDFNT MOVING INTO
NERN CO BY THU MORNING.  AS A RESULT TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THU IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE 20S TO NEAR 70 DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU WANT TO BELIEVE.  IN ADDITION THE GEM AND NOGAPS
SHOW A STG UPPER LEVEL JET IN NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE SNOW POTENTIAL IF THE FNT COMES IN LIKE THEY SHOW.  THE
ECMWF FOR NOW AT LEAST KEEPS THE JET FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH PCPN
STAYING OUT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH AN IN BETWEEN
SOLUTION UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHAT IS GOING TO TRANSPIRE.
THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FCST WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH 50S CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.

THE SAME ISSUES CONTINUE ON FRI AS THE GFS HAS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NR 70 OVER NERN CO
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SAGGING OVER
THE AREA WITH A CHC OF SNOW.  THE GEM KEEPS THE COLD AIR OVER THE
AREAS AS WELL BUT HAS NO PCPN.  ONCE AGAIN WILL JUST BROADBRUSH THE
FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 931 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WAS CREATING A BIT OF
A LONGMONT ANTI-CYCLONE AND SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WEAK
SURFACE WINDS ARE DIA EARLIER. TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS MIXED OUT AS EVIDENT BY THE TEMPERATURES AND
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS SHOULD GET TO DIA BY 18Z. THERE
ARE SOME HIGH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND...ABOUT 070...BUT NOT A
CEILING. MOISTURE PROFILES ON MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY CEILING ISSUES AT THE BIG AIRPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231654
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
954 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NOT MUCH SNOW FALLING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY RIGHT NOW.  THE NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE PLAINS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK
UP RIGHT NOW. WIND FORECAST IN THE GFE GRIDS LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND MOUNTAIN POPS AND BLOWING SNOW
AREAS TOO. NOTHING HUGE. HOWEVER...WILL KILL THE HIGHLIGHTS IN
NORTH AND MIDDLE PARK...AND EVEN IF SNOW BECOMES LIKELY AGAIN...
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONGEST WAVE OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE NOTED
IN FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO/NORTHEAST UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHICH
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. IN BETWEEN...
THERE IS SLIGHT DRYING SO WILL SEE A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ON THE
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WAS BLOSSOMING ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA
AND THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF DENVER THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN FEATURE AS LARGE SCALE LIFT IS STILL
SEEN IN THE Q-G FIELDS THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL LATEST PROFILER
DATA SHOWS WINDS A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK
WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP REDEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTH.
COULD SEE A COUPLE QUICK INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO
INTENSITY OF PRECIP ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA...MAINLY ABOVE 5500
FEET WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH.

OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END BY MID MORNING AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND SOME
DRYING OCCURS BEHIND FIRST WAVE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MOST AREAS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SNOW DUE TO RELATIVELY
LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. AGAIN THESE WOULD FAVOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WOULD ALSO SEE A KICK UP OF SNOW INTENSITY WITH
MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO GETTING UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING THEN AS
AIRMASS STABILIZES...ONLY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW REDEVELOP
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT OCCURRED IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW SO WILL
LEAVE WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GENERALLY LOOK FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
TODAY AND ANOTHER 2-4 TONIGHT ON AVERAGE ABOVE 9000 FEET.

FINALLY...SHOULD SEE THE WIND INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS
MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY PROFILE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE BUT STILL
MARGINAL WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
AREAS RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
30-50 MPH RANGE. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE WEAK SO THAT
SHOULD HELP THE STRONGER WINDS STAY UP HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON MON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS.  MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL IMPROVE IN THE MTNS WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SO SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW THRU
THE DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MID LVL MOISTURE AND PASSAGE
OF DISTURBANCE IN THE AFTN TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF
-SHSN OVER NERN CO. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. HIGHS
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER AS READINGS STAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS MON MORNING WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH
WIND CRITERIA IN THE TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS.

BY MON NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH LAPSE
RATES BEGIN TO STABILIZE THUS SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.  ALTHOUGH A
MTN TOP STABLE LYR WILL BE PRESENT COMPONENT ALONG WINDS ARE ONLY
FCST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE SO THREAT OF HIGH WINDS LOOKS
LOW AT THIS TIME.  ON TUE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
MTNS IN NWLY FLOW HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR SO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS AT TIMES.  850-700 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR READINGS TO RISE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE POOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MTNS. MEANWHILE LATEST DATA SUGGEST AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS STG MTN WAVE DEVELOPS AND
COMBINES WITH DECENT LOW LVL PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMPONENT ALONG
WINDS ARE FCST TO BE AOA 65 KTS BY 12Z WED. AS FOR TEMPS WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW INCREASING ON WED THIS MAY LEAD TO MUCH
WARMER HIGHS ESPECIALLY ALNG THE FRONT RANGE AS READINGS APPROACH
60 DEGREES. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS READINGS MAY
STAY IN THE LOWER 50S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.

BY THANKSGIVING DAY THERE IS NO AGREEMENT AT ALL BETWEEN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS.  THE ECMWF HAS FLIP FLOPPED BACK TO ITS PREVIOUS
SOLUTION OF A FEW DAYS AGO AS IT BRINGS A CDFNT INTO NERN CO DURING
THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS STG DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS NERN CO
WITH THE FNT STAYING WAY OFF THE EAST OF THE AREA.  TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS EVEN FURTHER THE GEM AND NOGAPS SHOW A STG CDFNT MOVING INTO
NERN CO BY THU MORNING.  AS A RESULT TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THU IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE 20S TO NEAR 70 DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU WANT TO BELIEVE.  IN ADDITION THE GEM AND NOGAPS
SHOW A STG UPPER LEVEL JET IN NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE SNOW POTENTIAL IF THE FNT COMES IN LIKE THEY SHOW.  THE
ECMWF FOR NOW AT LEAST KEEPS THE JET FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH PCPN
STAYING OUT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH AN IN BETWEEN
SOLUTION UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHAT IS GOING TO TRANSPIRE.
THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FCST WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH 50S CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.

THE SAME ISSUES CONTINUE ON FRI AS THE GFS HAS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NR 70 OVER NERN CO
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SAGGING OVER
THE AREA WITH A CHC OF SNOW.  THE GEM KEEPS THE COLD AIR OVER THE
AREAS AS WELL BUT HAS NO PCPN.  ONCE AGAIN WILL JUST BROADBRUSH THE
FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 931 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WAS CREATING A BIT OF
A LONGMONT ANTI-CYCLONE AND SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WEAK
SURFACE WINDS ARE DIA EARLIER. TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS MIXED OUT AS EVIDENT BY THE TEMPERATURES AND
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS SHOULD GET TO DIA BY 18Z. THERE
ARE SOME HIGH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND...ABOUT 070...BUT NOT A
CEILING. MOISTURE PROFILES ON MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY CEILING ISSUES AT THE BIG AIRPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231654
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
954 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NOT MUCH SNOW FALLING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY RIGHT NOW.  THE NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE PLAINS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK
UP RIGHT NOW. WIND FORECAST IN THE GFE GRIDS LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND MOUNTAIN POPS AND BLOWING SNOW
AREAS TOO. NOTHING HUGE. HOWEVER...WILL KILL THE HIGHLIGHTS IN
NORTH AND MIDDLE PARK...AND EVEN IF SNOW BECOMES LIKELY AGAIN...
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONGEST WAVE OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE NOTED
IN FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO/NORTHEAST UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHICH
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. IN BETWEEN...
THERE IS SLIGHT DRYING SO WILL SEE A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ON THE
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WAS BLOSSOMING ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA
AND THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF DENVER THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN FEATURE AS LARGE SCALE LIFT IS STILL
SEEN IN THE Q-G FIELDS THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL LATEST PROFILER
DATA SHOWS WINDS A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK
WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP REDEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTH.
COULD SEE A COUPLE QUICK INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO
INTENSITY OF PRECIP ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA...MAINLY ABOVE 5500
FEET WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH.

OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END BY MID MORNING AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND SOME
DRYING OCCURS BEHIND FIRST WAVE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MOST AREAS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SNOW DUE TO RELATIVELY
LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. AGAIN THESE WOULD FAVOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WOULD ALSO SEE A KICK UP OF SNOW INTENSITY WITH
MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO GETTING UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING THEN AS
AIRMASS STABILIZES...ONLY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW REDEVELOP
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT OCCURRED IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW SO WILL
LEAVE WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GENERALLY LOOK FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
TODAY AND ANOTHER 2-4 TONIGHT ON AVERAGE ABOVE 9000 FEET.

FINALLY...SHOULD SEE THE WIND INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS
MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY PROFILE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE BUT STILL
MARGINAL WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
AREAS RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
30-50 MPH RANGE. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE WEAK SO THAT
SHOULD HELP THE STRONGER WINDS STAY UP HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON MON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS.  MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL IMPROVE IN THE MTNS WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SO SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW THRU
THE DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MID LVL MOISTURE AND PASSAGE
OF DISTURBANCE IN THE AFTN TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF
-SHSN OVER NERN CO. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. HIGHS
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER AS READINGS STAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS MON MORNING WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH
WIND CRITERIA IN THE TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS.

BY MON NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH LAPSE
RATES BEGIN TO STABILIZE THUS SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.  ALTHOUGH A
MTN TOP STABLE LYR WILL BE PRESENT COMPONENT ALONG WINDS ARE ONLY
FCST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE SO THREAT OF HIGH WINDS LOOKS
LOW AT THIS TIME.  ON TUE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
MTNS IN NWLY FLOW HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR SO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS AT TIMES.  850-700 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR READINGS TO RISE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE POOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MTNS. MEANWHILE LATEST DATA SUGGEST AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS STG MTN WAVE DEVELOPS AND
COMBINES WITH DECENT LOW LVL PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMPONENT ALONG
WINDS ARE FCST TO BE AOA 65 KTS BY 12Z WED. AS FOR TEMPS WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW INCREASING ON WED THIS MAY LEAD TO MUCH
WARMER HIGHS ESPECIALLY ALNG THE FRONT RANGE AS READINGS APPROACH
60 DEGREES. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS READINGS MAY
STAY IN THE LOWER 50S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.

BY THANKSGIVING DAY THERE IS NO AGREEMENT AT ALL BETWEEN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS.  THE ECMWF HAS FLIP FLOPPED BACK TO ITS PREVIOUS
SOLUTION OF A FEW DAYS AGO AS IT BRINGS A CDFNT INTO NERN CO DURING
THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS STG DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS NERN CO
WITH THE FNT STAYING WAY OFF THE EAST OF THE AREA.  TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS EVEN FURTHER THE GEM AND NOGAPS SHOW A STG CDFNT MOVING INTO
NERN CO BY THU MORNING.  AS A RESULT TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THU IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE 20S TO NEAR 70 DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU WANT TO BELIEVE.  IN ADDITION THE GEM AND NOGAPS
SHOW A STG UPPER LEVEL JET IN NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE SNOW POTENTIAL IF THE FNT COMES IN LIKE THEY SHOW.  THE
ECMWF FOR NOW AT LEAST KEEPS THE JET FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH PCPN
STAYING OUT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH AN IN BETWEEN
SOLUTION UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHAT IS GOING TO TRANSPIRE.
THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FCST WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH 50S CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.

THE SAME ISSUES CONTINUE ON FRI AS THE GFS HAS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NR 70 OVER NERN CO
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SAGGING OVER
THE AREA WITH A CHC OF SNOW.  THE GEM KEEPS THE COLD AIR OVER THE
AREAS AS WELL BUT HAS NO PCPN.  ONCE AGAIN WILL JUST BROADBRUSH THE
FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 931 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WAS CREATING A BIT OF
A LONGMONT ANTI-CYCLONE AND SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WEAK
SURFACE WINDS ARE DIA EARLIER. TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS MIXED OUT AS EVIDENT BY THE TEMPERATURES AND
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS SHOULD GET TO DIA BY 18Z. THERE
ARE SOME HIGH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND...ABOUT 070...BUT NOT A
CEILING. MOISTURE PROFILES ON MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY CEILING ISSUES AT THE BIG AIRPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231654
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
954 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NOT MUCH SNOW FALLING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY RIGHT NOW.  THE NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE PLAINS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK
UP RIGHT NOW. WIND FORECAST IN THE GFE GRIDS LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND MOUNTAIN POPS AND BLOWING SNOW
AREAS TOO. NOTHING HUGE. HOWEVER...WILL KILL THE HIGHLIGHTS IN
NORTH AND MIDDLE PARK...AND EVEN IF SNOW BECOMES LIKELY AGAIN...
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONGEST WAVE OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE NOTED
IN FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO/NORTHEAST UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHICH
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. IN BETWEEN...
THERE IS SLIGHT DRYING SO WILL SEE A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ON THE
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WAS BLOSSOMING ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA
AND THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF DENVER THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN FEATURE AS LARGE SCALE LIFT IS STILL
SEEN IN THE Q-G FIELDS THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL LATEST PROFILER
DATA SHOWS WINDS A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK
WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP REDEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTH.
COULD SEE A COUPLE QUICK INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO
INTENSITY OF PRECIP ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA...MAINLY ABOVE 5500
FEET WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH.

OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END BY MID MORNING AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND SOME
DRYING OCCURS BEHIND FIRST WAVE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MOST AREAS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SNOW DUE TO RELATIVELY
LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. AGAIN THESE WOULD FAVOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WOULD ALSO SEE A KICK UP OF SNOW INTENSITY WITH
MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO GETTING UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING THEN AS
AIRMASS STABILIZES...ONLY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW REDEVELOP
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT OCCURRED IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW SO WILL
LEAVE WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GENERALLY LOOK FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
TODAY AND ANOTHER 2-4 TONIGHT ON AVERAGE ABOVE 9000 FEET.

FINALLY...SHOULD SEE THE WIND INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS
MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY PROFILE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE BUT STILL
MARGINAL WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
AREAS RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
30-50 MPH RANGE. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE WEAK SO THAT
SHOULD HELP THE STRONGER WINDS STAY UP HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON MON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS.  MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL IMPROVE IN THE MTNS WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SO SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW THRU
THE DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MID LVL MOISTURE AND PASSAGE
OF DISTURBANCE IN THE AFTN TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF
-SHSN OVER NERN CO. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. HIGHS
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER AS READINGS STAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS MON MORNING WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH
WIND CRITERIA IN THE TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS.

BY MON NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH LAPSE
RATES BEGIN TO STABILIZE THUS SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.  ALTHOUGH A
MTN TOP STABLE LYR WILL BE PRESENT COMPONENT ALONG WINDS ARE ONLY
FCST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE SO THREAT OF HIGH WINDS LOOKS
LOW AT THIS TIME.  ON TUE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
MTNS IN NWLY FLOW HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR SO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS AT TIMES.  850-700 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR READINGS TO RISE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE POOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MTNS. MEANWHILE LATEST DATA SUGGEST AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS STG MTN WAVE DEVELOPS AND
COMBINES WITH DECENT LOW LVL PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMPONENT ALONG
WINDS ARE FCST TO BE AOA 65 KTS BY 12Z WED. AS FOR TEMPS WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW INCREASING ON WED THIS MAY LEAD TO MUCH
WARMER HIGHS ESPECIALLY ALNG THE FRONT RANGE AS READINGS APPROACH
60 DEGREES. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS READINGS MAY
STAY IN THE LOWER 50S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.

BY THANKSGIVING DAY THERE IS NO AGREEMENT AT ALL BETWEEN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS.  THE ECMWF HAS FLIP FLOPPED BACK TO ITS PREVIOUS
SOLUTION OF A FEW DAYS AGO AS IT BRINGS A CDFNT INTO NERN CO DURING
THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS STG DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS NERN CO
WITH THE FNT STAYING WAY OFF THE EAST OF THE AREA.  TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS EVEN FURTHER THE GEM AND NOGAPS SHOW A STG CDFNT MOVING INTO
NERN CO BY THU MORNING.  AS A RESULT TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THU IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE 20S TO NEAR 70 DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU WANT TO BELIEVE.  IN ADDITION THE GEM AND NOGAPS
SHOW A STG UPPER LEVEL JET IN NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE SNOW POTENTIAL IF THE FNT COMES IN LIKE THEY SHOW.  THE
ECMWF FOR NOW AT LEAST KEEPS THE JET FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH PCPN
STAYING OUT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH AN IN BETWEEN
SOLUTION UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHAT IS GOING TO TRANSPIRE.
THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FCST WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH 50S CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.

THE SAME ISSUES CONTINUE ON FRI AS THE GFS HAS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NR 70 OVER NERN CO
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SAGGING OVER
THE AREA WITH A CHC OF SNOW.  THE GEM KEEPS THE COLD AIR OVER THE
AREAS AS WELL BUT HAS NO PCPN.  ONCE AGAIN WILL JUST BROADBRUSH THE
FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 931 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WAS CREATING A BIT OF
A LONGMONT ANTI-CYCLONE AND SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WEAK
SURFACE WINDS ARE DIA EARLIER. TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRPORT...THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS MIXED OUT AS EVIDENT BY THE TEMPERATURES AND
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS SHOULD GET TO DIA BY 18Z. THERE
ARE SOME HIGH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND...ABOUT 070...BUT NOT A
CEILING. MOISTURE PROFILES ON MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY CEILING ISSUES AT THE BIG AIRPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231314
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
614 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...KRIL...KEGE...
KASE...KMTJ...AND KTEX WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW DURING THE DAY...THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE
TONIGHT. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
BUT FACE LIMITED CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS WHICH MAY IMPACT TAF SITES IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF COLORADO.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231154
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...QUICK BURST OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING
ALONG THE CONTDVD BASED ON WEB CAMS.  HAVE EVEN SEEN PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
SAGUACHE AND JUST SOUTH VILLA GROVE IN CDOT CAMS.  MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STARTING TO SEE SNOW FILL IN
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 4 AM.

AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS ARE A LOT HEAVIER HANDED WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS A LITTLE SHARPER...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK MORE NORTHERLY...AND EVEN A TAD
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 12-13Z...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH AT TIMES.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RACE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THROUGH 15Z...THEN ACROSS THE NRN RATON RIDGE AND LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z.  NAM12 AND
ESPECIALLY ITS 06Z RUN HAS REALLY COME IN HOT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE SE MTS...INDICATING 5-10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS SHOWS GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES.  RAP13 HAS AROUND 2-
4 INCHES ACROSS NRN EL PASO...AND 1-6 ACROSS THE SE MTS/SRN I-25
CORRIDOR.  WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY CORRECT IN KEEPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ONCE
THE MAIN UPPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.  THAT SAID...HAVE
SEEN CASES LIKE THIS WHERE A PERSISTENT NARROW BAND CAN ACCUMULATE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW...WHILE A COUPLE MILES EITHER SIDE GET
NEXT TO NOTHING.  SO THE CONVECTIVE WILD CARD WILL BE A CHALLENGE
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. EITHER WAY...NAM12 SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM TOO MUCH CONVECTION IN THE MODEL RESULTING IN AMOUNTS
THAT LOOK TOO HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD.  HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS A
RAP AND HRRR BLEND FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEAVY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAILING BACK SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING WEAKENS.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
OROGRAPHIC SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.  CURRENT
SET OF HEADLINES PARES OUT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AT 5 PM AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BY 11 PM
THIS EVENING.  SUSPECT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN
SOONER...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AM HESITANT TO MODIFY ENDING TIMES JUST YET.  CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN HEADLINES ABOVE 11KFT CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE EVENT GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SNOW EVEN THOUGH IT MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE SE MTS BY
MIDNIGHT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND POPS(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES).

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS)...EXPECT A
BASICALLY DRY AND MILD METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN TO GRACE THE
CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...LOW-GRADE TO NIL POPS AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO PROJECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

THEN...AS BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND...PROJECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON-PLACE IN
COMBINATION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...RECENT GFS40 AND DGEX SOLUTIONS INDICATE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

HOWEVER...THE DGEX...ECMWF AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

FINALLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF -SHRASN WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PACKING NORTH WINDS 20-40 KT.  THIS FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH ALL OF
SE CO BY 12-13Z.  BRUNT OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE RATON
RIDGE...AND THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK/TELLER
COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SRN I-
25 CORRIDOR.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  KCOS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH 15Z...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
QUICK UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW AT THE TERMINAL.  KPUB MAY SEE A BRIEF -
SHRASN VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT AS WELL...THOUGH PROBABILITY LOOKS
LOWER.  MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WITH
SHOWERS.  THIS WILL BE A QUICK BLAST...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FOR THE
MOST PART BY 16Z. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WITH GUSTS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 25 KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KALS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY -SHSN TODAY SO WILL LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.  SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AT KALS FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL START
TO SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ059-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231154
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...QUICK BURST OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING
ALONG THE CONTDVD BASED ON WEB CAMS.  HAVE EVEN SEEN PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
SAGUACHE AND JUST SOUTH VILLA GROVE IN CDOT CAMS.  MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STARTING TO SEE SNOW FILL IN
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 4 AM.

AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS ARE A LOT HEAVIER HANDED WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS A LITTLE SHARPER...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK MORE NORTHERLY...AND EVEN A TAD
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 12-13Z...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH AT TIMES.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RACE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THROUGH 15Z...THEN ACROSS THE NRN RATON RIDGE AND LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z.  NAM12 AND
ESPECIALLY ITS 06Z RUN HAS REALLY COME IN HOT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE SE MTS...INDICATING 5-10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS SHOWS GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES.  RAP13 HAS AROUND 2-
4 INCHES ACROSS NRN EL PASO...AND 1-6 ACROSS THE SE MTS/SRN I-25
CORRIDOR.  WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY CORRECT IN KEEPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ONCE
THE MAIN UPPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.  THAT SAID...HAVE
SEEN CASES LIKE THIS WHERE A PERSISTENT NARROW BAND CAN ACCUMULATE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW...WHILE A COUPLE MILES EITHER SIDE GET
NEXT TO NOTHING.  SO THE CONVECTIVE WILD CARD WILL BE A CHALLENGE
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. EITHER WAY...NAM12 SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM TOO MUCH CONVECTION IN THE MODEL RESULTING IN AMOUNTS
THAT LOOK TOO HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD.  HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS A
RAP AND HRRR BLEND FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEAVY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAILING BACK SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING WEAKENS.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
OROGRAPHIC SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.  CURRENT
SET OF HEADLINES PARES OUT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AT 5 PM AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BY 11 PM
THIS EVENING.  SUSPECT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN
SOONER...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AM HESITANT TO MODIFY ENDING TIMES JUST YET.  CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN HEADLINES ABOVE 11KFT CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE EVENT GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SNOW EVEN THOUGH IT MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE SE MTS BY
MIDNIGHT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND POPS(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES).

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS)...EXPECT A
BASICALLY DRY AND MILD METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN TO GRACE THE
CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...LOW-GRADE TO NIL POPS AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO PROJECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

THEN...AS BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND...PROJECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON-PLACE IN
COMBINATION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...RECENT GFS40 AND DGEX SOLUTIONS INDICATE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

HOWEVER...THE DGEX...ECMWF AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

FINALLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF -SHRASN WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PACKING NORTH WINDS 20-40 KT.  THIS FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH ALL OF
SE CO BY 12-13Z.  BRUNT OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE RATON
RIDGE...AND THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK/TELLER
COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SRN I-
25 CORRIDOR.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  KCOS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH 15Z...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
QUICK UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW AT THE TERMINAL.  KPUB MAY SEE A BRIEF -
SHRASN VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT AS WELL...THOUGH PROBABILITY LOOKS
LOWER.  MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WITH
SHOWERS.  THIS WILL BE A QUICK BLAST...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FOR THE
MOST PART BY 16Z. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WITH GUSTS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 25 KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KALS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY -SHSN TODAY SO WILL LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.  SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AT KALS FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL START
TO SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ059-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231059
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONGEST WAVE OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE NOTED
IN FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO/NORTHEAST UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHICH
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. IN BETWEEN...
THERE IS SLIGHT DRYING SO WILL SEE A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ON THE
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WAS BLOSSOMING ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA
AND THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF DENVER THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN FEATURE AS LARGE SCALE LIFT IS STILL
SEEN IN THE Q-G FIELDS THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL LATEST PROFILER
DATA SHOWS WINDS A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK
WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP REDEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTH.
COULD SEE A COUPLE QUICK INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO
INTENSITY OF PRECIP ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA...MAINLY ABOVE 5500
FEET WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH.

OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END BY MID MORNING AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND SOME
DRYING OCCURS BEHIND FIRST WAVE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MOST AREAS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SNOW DUE TO RELATIVELY
LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. AGAIN THESE WOULD FAVOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WOULD ALSO SEE A KICK UP OF SNOW INTENSITY WITH
MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO GETTING UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING THEN AS
AIRMASS STABILIZES...ONLY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW REDEVELOP
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT OCCURRED IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW SO WILL
LEAVE WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GENERALLY LOOK FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
TODAY AND ANOTHER 2-4 TONIGHT ON AVERAGE ABOVE 9000 FEET.

FINALLY...SHOULD SEE THE WIND INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS
MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY PROFILE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE BUT STILL
MARGINAL WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
AREAS RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
30-50 MPH RANGE. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE WEAK SO THAT
SHOULD HELP THE STRONGER WINDS STAY UP HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON MON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS.  MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL IMPROVE IN THE MTNS WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SO SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW THRU
THE DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MID LVL MOISTURE AND PASSAGE
OF DISTURBANCE IN THE AFTN TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF
-SHSN OVER NERN CO. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. HIGHS
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER AS READINGS STAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS MON MORNING WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH
WIND CRITERIA IN THE TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS.

BY MON NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH LAPSE
RATES BEGIN TO STABILIZE THUS SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.  ALTHOUGH A
MTN TOP STABLE LYR WILL BE PRESENT COMPONENT ALONG WINDS ARE ONLY
FCST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE SO THREAT OF HIGH WINDS LOOKS
LOW AT THIS TIME.  ON TUE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
MTNS IN NWLY FLOW HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR SO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS AT TIMES.  850-700 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR READINGS TO RISE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE POOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MTNS. MEANWHILE LATEST DATA SUGGEST AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS STG MTN WAVE DEVELOPS AND
COMBINES WITH DECENT LOW LVL PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMPONENT ALONG
WINDS ARE FCST TO BE AOA 65 KTS BY 12Z WED. AS FOR TEMPS WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW INCREASING ON WED THIS MAY LEAD TO MUCH
WARMER HIGHS ESPECIALLY ALNG THE FRONT RANGE AS READINGS APPROACH
60 DEGREES. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS READINGS MAY
STAY IN THE LOWER 50S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.

BY THANKSGIVING DAY THERE IS NO AGREEMENT AT ALL BETWEEN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS.  THE ECMWF HAS FLIP FLOPPED BACK TO ITS PREVIOUS
SOLUTION OF A FEW DAYS AGO AS IT BRINGS A CDFNT INTO NERN CO DURING
THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS STG DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS NERN CO
WITH THE FNT STAYING WAY OFF THE EAST OF THE AREA.  TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS EVEN FURTHER THE GEM AND NOGAPS SHOW A STG CDFNT MOVING INTO
NERN CO BY THU MORNING.  AS A RESULT TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THU IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE 20S TO NEAR 70 DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU WANT TO BELIEVE.  IN ADDITION THE GEM AND NOGAPS
SHOW A STG UPPER LEVEL JET IN NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE SNOW POTENTIAL IF THE FNT COMES IN LIKE THEY SHOW.  THE
ECMWF FOR NOW AT LEAST KEEPS THE JET FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH PCPN
STAYING OUT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH AN IN BETWEEN
SOLUTION UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHAT IS GOING TO TRANSPIRE.
THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FCST WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH 50S CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.

THE SAME ISSUES CONTINUE ON FRI AS THE GFS HAS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NR 70 OVER NERN CO
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SAGGING OVER
THE AREA WITH A CHC OF SNOW.  THE GEM KEEPS THE COLD AIR OVER THE
AREAS AS WELL BUT HAS NO PCPN.  ONCE AGAIN WILL JUST BROADBRUSH THE
FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOST RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DENVER
METRO AREA AND FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS THROUGH 13Z. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH A CHANCE OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS IF LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN
SUFFICIENTLY UPSLOPE. EXPECT MOSTLY A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND ANOTHER BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PASSING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER 20Z-01Z AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH PEAK GUSTS REACHING
30-35 KTS FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 16Z AND 00Z. THEN WINDS SUBSIDING
AND TURNING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ030-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231058
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...KRIL...KEGE...
KASE...KMTJ...AND KTEX WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW DURING THE DAY...THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE
TONIGHT. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
BUT FACE LIMITED CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS WHICH MAY IMPACT TAF SITES IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231058
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...KRIL...KEGE...
KASE...KMTJ...AND KTEX WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW DURING THE DAY...THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE
TONIGHT. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
BUT FACE LIMITED CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS WHICH MAY IMPACT TAF SITES IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230733
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND
RAIN IN THE LOWER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS BY AROUND 09Z
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
CIGS/VSBY DROPPING INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. TAF
SITES MOST AFFECTED WILL BE KASE...KTEX...KRIL...KEGE. ALSO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

THESE STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL ALSO RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230733
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND
RAIN IN THE LOWER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS BY AROUND 09Z
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
CIGS/VSBY DROPPING INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. TAF
SITES MOST AFFECTED WILL BE KASE...KTEX...KRIL...KEGE. ALSO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

THESE STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL ALSO RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230733
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND
RAIN IN THE LOWER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS BY AROUND 09Z
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
CIGS/VSBY DROPPING INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. TAF
SITES MOST AFFECTED WILL BE KASE...KTEX...KRIL...KEGE. ALSO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

THESE STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL ALSO RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230733
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND
RAIN IN THE LOWER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS BY AROUND 09Z
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
CIGS/VSBY DROPPING INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. TAF
SITES MOST AFFECTED WILL BE KASE...KTEX...KRIL...KEGE. ALSO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

THESE STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL ALSO RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 230545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH LATEST NAM...GFS AND HIGHER RES MODELS COMING IN STRONGER
WITH TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE DONE A MAJOR UPGRADE IN POPS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGION. WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELYS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD AFTER 9Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 15Z WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SE MTS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA. WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS 15-20KT CONTINUING AT COS
AND PUB AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD STRONGER WITH TROUGH AND FRONT
WHICH LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO COS AROUND 10Z AND PUB AROUND 11Z WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-30KTS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT. WILL SEE
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
WHICH COULD MOVE ACROSS COS...BRINING UP TO A 1/2 INCH OF SNOW
FALL AND BRIEF MVFR OR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
RATON MESA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT PUB AT
THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

ALS WILL SEE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY 17Z SUN
AND DIMINISHING BY 01Z MON...WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AND
WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS CONTINUING WEST OF TERMINAL ACROSS THE
CONTDVD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 230545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH LATEST NAM...GFS AND HIGHER RES MODELS COMING IN STRONGER
WITH TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE DONE A MAJOR UPGRADE IN POPS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGION. WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELYS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD AFTER 9Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 15Z WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SE MTS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA. WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS 15-20KT CONTINUING AT COS
AND PUB AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD STRONGER WITH TROUGH AND FRONT
WHICH LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO COS AROUND 10Z AND PUB AROUND 11Z WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-30KTS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT. WILL SEE
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
WHICH COULD MOVE ACROSS COS...BRINING UP TO A 1/2 INCH OF SNOW
FALL AND BRIEF MVFR OR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
RATON MESA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT PUB AT
THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

ALS WILL SEE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY 17Z SUN
AND DIMINISHING BY 01Z MON...WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AND
WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS CONTINUING WEST OF TERMINAL ACROSS THE
CONTDVD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230455
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
955 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND
RAIN IN THE LOWER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS BY AROUND 09Z
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
CIGS/VSBY DROPPING INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. TAF
SITES MOST AFFECTED WILL BE KASE...KTEX...KRIL...KEGE. ALSO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

THESE STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL ALSO RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230428
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
928 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

00Z MODEL RUN COMING IN NOW. WILL NEED TO UPDATE PRECIP CHANGES
AND ADD SNOW ACCUMULATION TO PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD THRU
EASTERN WYOMING AT THE MOMENT WILL COUPLE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
GENERATED BY THE PASSING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL THIS POINTS TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ON THE
PLAINS...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A BOULDER TO AKRON LINE. AREAS NORTH OF
THIS LINE MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR SPILLING DOWN FROM WYOMING. WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AS WELL FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
BUT ITS FARTHER SOUTH WHERE MODELS INDICATE THE GREATER QPF/SNOW
ACCUMS. NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A BAND OF 1-3
INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACRS DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES..WITH 1-2
INCH AMTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE METRO AREA AND SRN PORTIONS OF
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTIES. 09Z-15Z
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIME TIME FOR THIS SNOWFALL. THEREFORE WILL
RAISE POPS TO AT LEAST 70 PCT IN THESE AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL COLLECT ON GRASSY
SFCS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING NEAR DAWN...
ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS...ESPLY ON THE PALMER DIVIDE IS A GOOD
BET.

MEANWHILE...CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY. SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT...WITH
THE BULK OF THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SNOWFALL UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE HIGH MTN PASSES. ONCE THE 700-500
MB TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MTNS NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD
SEE SNOWFALL RATES JUMPING UP WITH ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONGER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 517 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AFTER AN INITIAL BLAST OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THERE HAS BEEN
SOME RAPID DIMINISHMENT OF PRECIP GIVEN LACK OF ECHOES NOW ON 88D
IMAGERY. EXPECT SNOW TO REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOUR AS RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW HEAVIER PRECIP OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. WITH CONTINUED STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT SOME GUSTY WINDS
HAVE SURFACED OVER PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS HAVE BEEN THE DIFFICULT ELEMENT TODAY...AS KBJC WENT
SOUTHWESTERLY...WINDS DIED ABRUPTLY. AFTER CONSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...KDEN JUST WENT TO NORTHWESTERLY. ALSO THE
HIGH WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS PREVALENT AS EARLIER
THOUGHT...THE BRISK AND GUSTY WEST SOUTH WEST WINDS ARE CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WE WILL SEE SOME EXPANSION OF
THE WIND FIELD TONIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS JUST BEGINNING IN ZONE 31 AS LEAD EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES. EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE
EXPECT A LULL IN SNOW ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY.

ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SHOWED
SCATTERED POPS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT THAT AND EXPANDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT SHALLOWER
WITH A BREAK IN THE QG LIFT ON SUNDAY...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS MAY
OFFSET THIS. THEN ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
LIFT ON MONDAY. WITH ALL THE WIND IT STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE TO
CARRY THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE
SNOWFALL MAY BE LIGHTER. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON
THE EAST SLOPES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALL HIGH WIND THREAT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE A RESULT OF MIXING THE STRONG
WINDS IN THE 500-700 MB LAYER DOWNWARD. TAIL END OF THE SUNDAY
SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER LATE MONDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.

STRONG WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE TO THE MOUNTAIN SNOW. IT WILL ALSO
ESTABLISH A GOOD WIND AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR AN AMPLIFIED
MOUNTAIN WAVE. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THREAT FOR HIGH
WINDS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THERE IS STILL LOTS
OF WIND ALOFT TO WORK WITH. MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE WARMER AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO CLOUDINESS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW.

FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A STRONG WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
WITH A JET AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF COLORADO. HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THIS...AND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG INTO COLORADO AT SOME POINT BUT MAYBE
NOT WITH FULL FORCE. THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH ON THE WARM EXTREME OF THE RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE 20S TO THE 60S...THOUGH MOST
ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. FOR NOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS AS GOOD AS WE CAN DO...WHICH SHOWS THE FRONT SAGGING
IN DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER AND
AROUND 50 IN DENVER. THE RANGE COULD EASILY BE LARGER...SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. ODDS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DO LOOK
SMALL...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
FRONT SO I DID LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE NE CORNER WHERE THIS IS
MOST LIKELY. THE SAME BASIC ISSUES ARE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TREND BACK TOWARD ZONAL
FLOW AND PUSHING OUT ANY COLD AIR THAT DOES COME IN BY THE
WEEKEND. ADDED SOME LOW MOUNTAIN POPS SATURDAY FOR A POSSIBLE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST NEXT 12 HOURS WILL INCLUDE ADDING
SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DENVER AREA FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A PASSING UPPER TROUGH AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AROUND 09Z SHOULD SET OFF
FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOWFALL AT DENVER AREA
TERMINALS. PRIME TIME FOR THIS SNOWFALL IS FROM 09Z TO 15Z/
SUNDAY. KDEN AND KBJC COULD POSSIBLY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON AIRPORT GROUNDS...WHILE KAPA COULD SEE AS MUCH OF
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY 15Z. IN ADDITION...LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS AT THE PRESENT TIME SHOULD ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 20-35KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 08Z...THEN A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER THAT SWITCH TO A NORTHEAST WIND AT 9-18KTS. SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO END IN THE DENVER AREA BY 16Z. ANTICIPATE ILS APPROACH
CONDITIONS WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING THIS 4-5 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ030-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 230427
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH LATEST NAM...GFS AND HIGHER RES MODELS COMING IN STRONGER
WITH TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE DONE A MAJOR UPGRADE IN POPS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGION. WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELYS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD AFTER 9Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 15Z WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SE MTS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA. WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF 40-50 KNOT GUSTS ALONG THE LOWER
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. KCOS MAY STAY SHADOWED ENOUGH BY PIKES
PEAK TO KEEP WINDS THERE LIGHT (10-15 KT)SW...WHILE GAP FLOW HAS
REACHED KPUB AS OF 22Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD
THIS EVENING WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30
KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z. A BRIEF -SHSN
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 230427
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH LATEST NAM...GFS AND HIGHER RES MODELS COMING IN STRONGER
WITH TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE DONE A MAJOR UPGRADE IN POPS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGION. WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELYS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD AFTER 9Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 15Z WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SE MTS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA. WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF 40-50 KNOT GUSTS ALONG THE LOWER
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. KCOS MAY STAY SHADOWED ENOUGH BY PIKES
PEAK TO KEEP WINDS THERE LIGHT (10-15 KT)SW...WHILE GAP FLOW HAS
REACHED KPUB AS OF 22Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD
THIS EVENING WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30
KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z. A BRIEF -SHSN
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230402
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230402
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230402
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230402
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230236
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
736 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230236
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
736 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230038
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
538 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 517 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AFTER AN INITIAL BLAST OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THERE HAS BEEN
SOME RAPID DIMINISHMENT OF PRECIP GIVEN LACK OF ECHOES NOW ON 88D
IMAGERY. EXPECT SNOW TO REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOUR AS RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW HEAVIER PRECIP OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. WITH CONTINUED STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT SOME GUSTY WINDS
HAVE SURFACED OVER PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS HAVE BEEN THE DIFFICULT ELEMENT TODAY...AS KBJC WENT
SOUTHWESTERLY...WINDS DIED ABRUPTLY. AFTER CONSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...KDEN JUST WENT TO NORTHWESTERLY. ALSO THE
HIGH WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS PREVALENT AS EARLIER
THOUGHT...THE BRISK AND GUSTY WEST SOUTH WEST WINDS ARE CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WE WILL SEE SOME EXPANSION OF
THE WIND FIELD TONIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS JUST BEGINNING IN ZONE 31 AS LEAD EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES. EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE
EXPECT A LULL IN SNOW ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY.

ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SHOWED
SCATTERED POPS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT THAT AND EXPANDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT SHALLOWER
WITH A BREAK IN THE QG LIFT ON SUNDAY...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS MAY
OFFSET THIS. THEN ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
LIFT ON MONDAY. WITH ALL THE WIND IT STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE TO
CARRY THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE
SNOWFALL MAY BE LIGHTER. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON
THE EAST SLOPES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALL HIGH WIND THREAT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE A RESULT OF MIXING THE STRONG
WINDS IN THE 500-700 MB LAYER DOWNWARD. TAIL END OF THE SUNDAY
SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER LATE MONDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.

STRONG WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE TO THE MOUNTAIN SNOW. IT WILL ALSO
ESTABLISH A GOOD WIND AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR AN AMPLIFIED
MOUNTAIN WAVE. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THREAT FOR HIGH
WINDS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THERE IS STILL LOTS
OF WIND ALOFT TO WORK WITH. MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE WARMER AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO CLOUDINESS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW.

FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A STRONG WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
WITH A JET AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF COLORADO. HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THIS...AND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG INTO COLORADO AT SOME POINT BUT MAYBE
NOT WITH FULL FORCE. THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH ON THE WARM EXTREME OF THE RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE 20S TO THE 60S...THOUGH MOST
ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. FOR NOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS AS GOOD AS WE CAN DO...WHICH SHOWS THE FRONT SAGGING
IN DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER AND
AROUND 50 IN DENVER. THE RANGE COULD EASILY BE LARGER...SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. ODDS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DO LOOK
SMALL...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
FRONT SO I DID LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE NE CORNER WHERE THIS IS
MOST LIKELY. THE SAME BASIC ISSUES ARE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TREND BACK TOWARD ZONAL
FLOW AND PUSHING OUT ANY COLD AIR THAT DOES COME IN BY THE
WEEKEND. ADDED SOME LOW MOUNTAIN POPS SATURDAY FOR A POSSIBLE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STILL SEEING STRONG WEST WINDS AT BJC SO HAVE EXTENDED THOSE
STRONGER WINDS THERE UNTIL 02Z AND THEN DECREASING A BIT. KDEN HAS
ALSO SHOWN INCREASED WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE BUMPED UP
SPEEDS THERE AS WELL. THERE STILL IS A THREAT OF SOME PRECIP
FOLLOWING FROPA BUT MOST SEEM TO KEEP PRECIP ON THE PALMER DIVIDE.
THE NAM HOWEVER DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER DENVER AREA
INCLUDING APA/DEN SO OPTED FOR A PROB30 FOR NOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ030-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 230004
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
504 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS HAVE BEEN THE DIFFICULT ELEMENT TODAY...AS KBJC WENT
SOUTHWESTERLY...WINDS DIED ABRUPTLY. AFTER CONSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...KDEN JUST WENT TO NORTHWESTERLY. ALSO THE
HIGH WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS PREVALENT AS EARLIER
THOUGHT...THE BRISK AND GUSTY WEST SOUTH WEST WINDS ARE CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WE WILL SEE SOME EXPANSION OF
THE WIND FIELD TONIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS JUST BEGINNING IN ZONE 31 AS LEAD EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES. EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE
EXPECT A LULL IN SNOW ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY.

ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SHOWED
SCATTERED POPS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT THAT AND EXPANDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT SHALLOWER
WITH A BREAK IN THE QG LIFT ON SUNDAY...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS MAY
OFFSET THIS. THEN ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
LIFT ON MONDAY. WITH ALL THE WIND IT STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE TO
CARRY THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE
SNOWFALL MAY BE LIGHTER. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON
THE EAST SLOPES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALL HIGH WIND THREAT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE A RESULT OF MIXING THE STRONG
WINDS IN THE 500-700 MB LAYER DOWNWARD. TAIL END OF THE SUNDAY
SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER LATE MONDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.

STRONG WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE TO THE MOUNTAIN SNOW. IT WILL ALSO
ESTABLISH A GOOD WIND AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR AN AMPLIFIED
MOUNTAIN WAVE. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THREAT FOR HIGH
WINDS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THERE IS STILL LOTS
OF WIND ALOFT TO WORK WITH. MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE WARMER AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO CLOUDINESS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW.

FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A STRONG WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
WITH A JET AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF COLORADO. HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THIS...AND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG INTO COLORADO AT SOME POINT BUT MAYBE
NOT WITH FULL FORCE. THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH ON THE WARM EXTREME OF THE RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE 20S TO THE 60S...THOUGH MOST
ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. FOR NOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS AS GOOD AS WE CAN DO...WHICH SHOWS THE FRONT SAGGING
IN DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER AND
AROUND 50 IN DENVER. THE RANGE COULD EASILY BE LARGER...SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. ODDS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DO LOOK
SMALL...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
FRONT SO I DID LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE NE CORNER WHERE THIS IS
MOST LIKELY. THE SAME BASIC ISSUES ARE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TREND BACK TOWARD ZONAL
FLOW AND PUSHING OUT ANY COLD AIR THAT DOES COME IN BY THE
WEEKEND. ADDED SOME LOW MOUNTAIN POPS SATURDAY FOR A POSSIBLE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TURN MORE WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KT AT KBJC...
AND GUSTS TO 25KT AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS METRO DENVER AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
PASSING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AFTER FRONT TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ031-033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ030-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RTG




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230004
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
504 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS HAVE BEEN THE DIFFICULT ELEMENT TODAY...AS KBJC WENT
SOUTHWESTERLY...WINDS DIED ABRUPTLY. AFTER CONSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...KDEN JUST WENT TO NORTHWESTERLY. ALSO THE
HIGH WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS PREVALENT AS EARLIER
THOUGHT...THE BRISK AND GUSTY WEST SOUTH WEST WINDS ARE CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WE WILL SEE SOME EXPANSION OF
THE WIND FIELD TONIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS JUST BEGINNING IN ZONE 31 AS LEAD EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES. EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE
EXPECT A LULL IN SNOW ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY.

ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SHOWED
SCATTERED POPS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT THAT AND EXPANDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT SHALLOWER
WITH A BREAK IN THE QG LIFT ON SUNDAY...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS MAY
OFFSET THIS. THEN ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
LIFT ON MONDAY. WITH ALL THE WIND IT STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE TO
CARRY THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE
SNOWFALL MAY BE LIGHTER. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON
THE EAST SLOPES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALL HIGH WIND THREAT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE A RESULT OF MIXING THE STRONG
WINDS IN THE 500-700 MB LAYER DOWNWARD. TAIL END OF THE SUNDAY
SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER LATE MONDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.

STRONG WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE TO THE MOUNTAIN SNOW. IT WILL ALSO
ESTABLISH A GOOD WIND AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR AN AMPLIFIED
MOUNTAIN WAVE. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THREAT FOR HIGH
WINDS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THERE IS STILL LOTS
OF WIND ALOFT TO WORK WITH. MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE WARMER AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO CLOUDINESS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW.

FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A STRONG WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
WITH A JET AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF COLORADO. HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THIS...AND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG INTO COLORADO AT SOME POINT BUT MAYBE
NOT WITH FULL FORCE. THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH ON THE WARM EXTREME OF THE RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE 20S TO THE 60S...THOUGH MOST
ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. FOR NOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS AS GOOD AS WE CAN DO...WHICH SHOWS THE FRONT SAGGING
IN DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER AND
AROUND 50 IN DENVER. THE RANGE COULD EASILY BE LARGER...SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. ODDS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DO LOOK
SMALL...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
FRONT SO I DID LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE NE CORNER WHERE THIS IS
MOST LIKELY. THE SAME BASIC ISSUES ARE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TREND BACK TOWARD ZONAL
FLOW AND PUSHING OUT ANY COLD AIR THAT DOES COME IN BY THE
WEEKEND. ADDED SOME LOW MOUNTAIN POPS SATURDAY FOR A POSSIBLE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TURN MORE WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KT AT KBJC...
AND GUSTS TO 25KT AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS METRO DENVER AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
PASSING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AFTER FRONT TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ031-033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ030-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RTG



000
FXUS65 KGJT 222255
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 222255
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 222234
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF 40-50 KNOT GUSTS ALONG THE LOWER
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. KCOS MAY STAY SHADOWED ENOUGH BY PIKES
PEAK TO KEEP WINDS THERE LIGHT (10-15 KT)SW...WHILE GAP FLOW HAS
REACHED KPUB AS OF 22Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD
THIS EVENING WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30
KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z. A BRIEF -SHSN
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222219
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 222219
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 221807
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1107 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SNOW BEGINNING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  HAVE ADDED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN NORTH PARK
AND MIDDLE PARK FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW
WILL COME IN TWO PULSES...TONIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY PICK UP 6 TO 12 INCHES
THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH
THE STORMY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF POWERFUL
150-160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET COMING ASHORE THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
COAST. THIS SPEED MAX WILL THEN DRIVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH AT LEAST WEAK BUT SUSTAINED Q-G LIFT AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

INITIALLY...WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HEAVY SNOW LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN JACKSON/GRAND COUNTIES IN
VICINITY OF RABBIT EARS PASS AND MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS...BUT AS
FLOW TURNS MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AND STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING SUMMIT COUNTY. THIS FIRST SHOT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH UP TO A FOOT FROM RABBIT EARS
PASS AREA NORTHWARD WHERE THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS STORM COULD
REALLY POUND THAT AREA WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE STRONG
FLOW...WE DO EXPECT SOME SPILLOVER SNOW TO AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS MAINLY ALONG THE PEAK TO PEAK HIGHWAY WHERE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE. THIS TOO ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN
GOING FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES SO EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET ARE ON TRACK. HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING WALDEN AND KREMMLING WILL SEE LIGHTER
SNOW BUT GUSTY WINDS FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS TIME...THE
PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS SEEN TO
BE TOO SHORT AND AMOUNTS SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED.

ON THE PLAINS...THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT JUST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT
WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE PLAINS SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE DENVER METRO AREA
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD AKRON AND LIMON. WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IF WE SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP.

WITH REGARD TO WIND...THE CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
35 KTS AND A RATHER STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE PROFILE. CHINOOK PATTERN
IN PLACE SO STRONGER AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 55
MPH RANGE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN/RIGHT NEXT TO THE
FOOTHILLS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
MOUNTAIN WAVE STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY DECREASES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FROM THE FOOTHILLS DOWN ONTO THE
PLAINS WITH WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
DENVER METRO SHOULD SEE 60F AS LONG AS MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS DONT
THICKEN TOO QUICKLY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY THIN BAND OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS TIL AFTERNOON WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
WILL DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL DECREASE SOME IN THE MTNS HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE SO OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A BORA TYPE FNT MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS THRU THE AFTN.  HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NERN CO.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS A FEW
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE ACROSS.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS BY 12Z MON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTN.  LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY
SNOW.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS WELL WITH BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
ABV 10000 FT.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A WK MTN WAVE MAY SET UP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS.  THUS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH
WIND EVENT IN THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z.  OTHERWISE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY OVER THE PLAINS THRU THE AFTN HOURS WITH GUSTY NNW
WINDS.  AS FAR AS PCPN THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A CHC OF -SHSN
MON AFTN OVER NERN CO AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS.  LAPSE RATES
OVER NERN CO ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 8-9 C/KM RANGE.  BEST CHC WILL
PROBABLY BE EAST OF I-25 AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AS AREAS NR THE
FOOTHILLS WILL BE FIGHTING STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  AS FOR HIGHS
850-700 MB COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BY MON NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH
STABILITY INCREASING SO SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  MEANWHILE WITH MTN TOP STABILITY INCREASING INTO TUE
MORNING MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NWLY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE MTNS.  LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE 4-5
C/KM RANGE SO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
OVER NERN CO GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR TUE NIGHT AXIS OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER NERN CO WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.  THUS COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN MAINLY NR THE WY-NE
BORDER.  IN THE MTNS EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TUE NIGHT DUE
TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.  ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING
AS MTN WAVE INTENSIFIES AND COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE TO 50-55
KTS. ON WED WILL KEEP IN A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WHILE OVER
NERN CO WILL HAVE A DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NR THE
WY-NE BORDER AREA.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS CONTINUES. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER NERN CO AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS NRN CO IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
COLD FNT MOVES INTO NERN CO BY THU MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S.  THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BEHIND THE FNT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IF IT DOES MOVE INTO NERN CO AS THE GFS SHOWS.
AT THIS POINT NOT SURE WHAT TO BELIEVE SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR NOW AND KEEP A DRY FCST TO REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  ON FRI THE GFS KEEPS A SHALLOW
LYR OF COLD AIR OVER NERN CO WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS READINGS IN THE 60S.  AS FOR
PCPN NEITHER MODEL HAS MUCH MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP DRY FCST IN
PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TURN MORE WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KT AT KBJC...
AND GUSTS TO 25KT AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS METRO DENVER AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
PASSING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AFTER FRONT TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ031-033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ030-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221747
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1047 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH AREA
RADARS SHOWING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR AND ID
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR COLORADO
TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL COME IN AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OROGRAPHICS FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THUS EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
FALL IN THIS REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MORE SNOW TO FOLLOW.  ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS
AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...STILL LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF GOOD QG LIFT WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL...HAZARD GRID CAPTURES THE SCENARIO WELL WITH WARNINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
ONLY CONTRIBUTION WAS TO ADD ZONE 64 AS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ZONE SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MOUNTAINS WITH THE NW OROGRAPHICS
BY THE EVENTS END.

WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL INCREASE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING AS A BRIEF MTN WAVE TRIES TO SET UP.  HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS OFF THE LOCAL 4KM WRF KEEPS STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INVERSION LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR OPTIMAL
MTN WAVE PARAMETERS. BY 06Z...UPPER LIFT WILL START TO COME IN...AND
MTN WAVE POTENTIAL BREAKS DOWN AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES ALOFT.  AREAS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH
RANGE...AND SANGRES...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS...BUT FOR
NOW THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS TONIGHT...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS
THE LEE TROF AIDES IN SPREADING WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MOST AREAS.  THIS WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE MTN AREAS SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z TO 12Z.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH CREST OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES BY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THE DRUMBEAT OF PERSISTENT
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
CONTDVD...AND ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL MTS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG NW WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AND ONGOING
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. THE THREAT OF SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO END ON
MONDAY. AS FOR TH E PLAINS...MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS BUT LITTLE IN
TERMS OF PCPN. TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE W-NW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND BOTH DAYS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS. COLDER AIR IS LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT FOR
THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD AND COMFORTABLE
THANKSGIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...THE GFS HINTS AT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ON
FRI...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ISOLATED SNOW RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL MTS. THE EC CONTINUES THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WED AND THU.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. CONSIDERING THIS IS THE END OF
NOVEMBER...NOT A BAD WEATHER TREND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD
OF INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF GUSTY WEST
WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
TODAY...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AREAS OF LIGHT WINDS
WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND OF PIKES PEAK AND THE WET MTNS...WHICH MAY
KEEP THE GUSTIER WINDS AWAY FROM KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THUS BOTH TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE WEST TO SW
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD AFTER 21Z WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS
AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. A BRIEF -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221747
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1047 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH AREA
RADARS SHOWING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR AND ID
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR COLORADO
TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL COME IN AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OROGRAPHICS FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THUS EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
FALL IN THIS REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MORE SNOW TO FOLLOW.  ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS
AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...STILL LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF GOOD QG LIFT WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL...HAZARD GRID CAPTURES THE SCENARIO WELL WITH WARNINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
ONLY CONTRIBUTION WAS TO ADD ZONE 64 AS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ZONE SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MOUNTAINS WITH THE NW OROGRAPHICS
BY THE EVENTS END.

WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL INCREASE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING AS A BRIEF MTN WAVE TRIES TO SET UP.  HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS OFF THE LOCAL 4KM WRF KEEPS STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INVERSION LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR OPTIMAL
MTN WAVE PARAMETERS. BY 06Z...UPPER LIFT WILL START TO COME IN...AND
MTN WAVE POTENTIAL BREAKS DOWN AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES ALOFT.  AREAS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH
RANGE...AND SANGRES...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS...BUT FOR
NOW THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS TONIGHT...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS
THE LEE TROF AIDES IN SPREADING WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MOST AREAS.  THIS WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE MTN AREAS SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z TO 12Z.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH CREST OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES BY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THE DRUMBEAT OF PERSISTENT
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
CONTDVD...AND ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL MTS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG NW WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AND ONGOING
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. THE THREAT OF SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO END ON
MONDAY. AS FOR TH E PLAINS...MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS BUT LITTLE IN
TERMS OF PCPN. TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE W-NW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND BOTH DAYS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS. COLDER AIR IS LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT FOR
THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD AND COMFORTABLE
THANKSGIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...THE GFS HINTS AT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ON
FRI...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ISOLATED SNOW RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL MTS. THE EC CONTINUES THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WED AND THU.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. CONSIDERING THIS IS THE END OF
NOVEMBER...NOT A BAD WEATHER TREND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD
OF INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF GUSTY WEST
WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
TODAY...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AREAS OF LIGHT WINDS
WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND OF PIKES PEAK AND THE WET MTNS...WHICH MAY
KEEP THE GUSTIER WINDS AWAY FROM KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THUS BOTH TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE WEST TO SW
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD AFTER 21Z WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS
AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. A BRIEF -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221656
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
956 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
PROMISES TO BRING A GOOD ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND TO
SOME OF THE HIGHER AND/OR FAVORED VALLEYS. VARIOUS WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED FOR
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING EARLY
TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND VALLEY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
RAMP UP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS TIMED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ADDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS THE JET DROPS SOUTHEAST-WARD INTO NEW MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN
WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT AS THE 500 MB -32C COLD POOL MOVES OVER
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUPPLY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR SLOPES AND DRAINAGES FACING THOSE
DIRECTIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FT...THEN LOWER QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATING IN MANY LOCATIONS. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION SUN AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SNOW TAPERS OFF OVER
THE SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE SUNDAY...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. SEE THE LONGTERM
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS IN THE HEART OF THE STORM
TONIGHT WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE BEST
COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SNOW WILL CEASE OVER THE SAN
JUANS SO WILL ALLOW SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
01Z/MONDAY ACROSS COLORADO/S SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CAUSE SNOWFALL TO AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK RESULTING IN LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.

SNOWFALL FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STOPS DIGGING AND BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME WARMING ALOFT AND
DECREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT.

ECMWF REVERSED ITSELF AT MIDWEEK NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS40 WHICH INDICATED A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WHILE KEEPING SNOW AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NE UTAH...THEN SPREAD EAST AND
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z...
THOUGH INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAUSED AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE UINTA MTS AND THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z AND INCREASE THEREAFTER. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OFF AT ABOUT 6500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL BECOME HEAVY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION.

TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE...WILL EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND CIGS IN SNOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR KMTJ AND KTEX. IN CONTRAST...KVEL IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE KDRO IS
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY CONDITIONS BELOW VFR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221656
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
956 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
PROMISES TO BRING A GOOD ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND TO
SOME OF THE HIGHER AND/OR FAVORED VALLEYS. VARIOUS WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED FOR
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING EARLY
TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND VALLEY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
RAMP UP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS TIMED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ADDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS THE JET DROPS SOUTHEAST-WARD INTO NEW MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN
WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT AS THE 500 MB -32C COLD POOL MOVES OVER
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUPPLY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR SLOPES AND DRAINAGES FACING THOSE
DIRECTIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FT...THEN LOWER QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATING IN MANY LOCATIONS. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION SUN AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SNOW TAPERS OFF OVER
THE SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE SUNDAY...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. SEE THE LONGTERM
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS IN THE HEART OF THE STORM
TONIGHT WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE BEST
COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SNOW WILL CEASE OVER THE SAN
JUANS SO WILL ALLOW SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
01Z/MONDAY ACROSS COLORADO/S SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CAUSE SNOWFALL TO AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK RESULTING IN LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.

SNOWFALL FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STOPS DIGGING AND BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME WARMING ALOFT AND
DECREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT.

ECMWF REVERSED ITSELF AT MIDWEEK NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS40 WHICH INDICATED A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WHILE KEEPING SNOW AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NE UTAH...THEN SPREAD EAST AND
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z...
THOUGH INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAUSED AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE UINTA MTS AND THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z AND INCREASE THEREAFTER. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OFF AT ABOUT 6500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL BECOME HEAVY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION.

TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE...WILL EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND CIGS IN SNOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR KMTJ AND KTEX. IN CONTRAST...KVEL IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE KDRO IS
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY CONDITIONS BELOW VFR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH AREA
RADARS SHOWING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR AND ID
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR COLORADO
TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL COME IN AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OROGRAPHICS FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THUS EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
FALL IN THIS REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MORE SNOW TO FOLLOW.  ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS
AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...STILL LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF GOOD QG LIFT WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL...HAZARD GRID CAPTURES THE SCENARIO WELL WITH WARNINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
ONLY CONTRIBUTION WAS TO ADD ZONE 64 AS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ZONE SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MOUNTAINS WITH THE NW OROGRAPHICS
BY THE EVENTS END.

WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL INCREASE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING AS A BRIEF MTN WAVE TRIES TO SET UP.  HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS OFF THE LOCAL 4KM WRF KEEPS STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INVERSION LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR OPTIMAL
MTN WAVE PARAMETERS. BY 06Z...UPPER LIFT WILL START TO COME IN...AND
MTN WAVE POTENTIAL BREAKS DOWN AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES ALOFT.  AREAS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH
RANGE...AND SANGRES...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS...BUT FOR
NOW THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS TONIGHT...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS
THE LEE TROF AIDES IN SPREADING WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MOST AREAS.  THIS WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE MTN AREAS SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z TO 12Z.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH CREST OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES BY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THE DRUMBEAT OF PERSISTENT
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
CONTDVD...AND ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL MTS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG NW WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AND ONGOING
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. THE THREAT OF SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO END ON
MONDAY. AS FOR TH E PLAINS...MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS BUT LITTLE IN
TERMS OF PCPN. TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE W-NW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND BOTH DAYS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS. COLDER AIR IS LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT FOR
THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD AND COMFORTABLE
THANKSGIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...THE GFS HINTS AT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ON
FRI...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ISOLATED SNOW RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL MTS. THE EC CONTINUES THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WED AND THU.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. CONSIDERING THIS IS THE END OF
NOVEMBER...NOT A BAD WEATHER TREND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WITH WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE...AND EVEN POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ALONG THE LOWER EAST FACING SLOPES AT TIMES.  THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE TO THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE AND THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSES ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AREAS OF
LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND OF PIKES PEAK AND THE WET
MTNS...WHICH MAY KEEP THE GUSTIER WINDS BYPASSED AROUND KCOS AND
KPUB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THUS THE TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE WEST TO SW WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE CONTDVD AFTER 21Z-00Z WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED
AT KCOS AND KPUB.  A PASSING SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO PUT INTO TAFS AT THIS POINT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH AREA
RADARS SHOWING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR AND ID
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR COLORADO
TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL COME IN AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OROGRAPHICS FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THUS EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
FALL IN THIS REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MORE SNOW TO FOLLOW.  ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS
AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...STILL LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF GOOD QG LIFT WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL...HAZARD GRID CAPTURES THE SCENARIO WELL WITH WARNINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
ONLY CONTRIBUTION WAS TO ADD ZONE 64 AS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ZONE SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MOUNTAINS WITH THE NW OROGRAPHICS
BY THE EVENTS END.

WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL INCREASE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING AS A BRIEF MTN WAVE TRIES TO SET UP.  HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS OFF THE LOCAL 4KM WRF KEEPS STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INVERSION LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR OPTIMAL
MTN WAVE PARAMETERS. BY 06Z...UPPER LIFT WILL START TO COME IN...AND
MTN WAVE POTENTIAL BREAKS DOWN AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES ALOFT.  AREAS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH
RANGE...AND SANGRES...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS...BUT FOR
NOW THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS TONIGHT...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS
THE LEE TROF AIDES IN SPREADING WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MOST AREAS.  THIS WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE MTN AREAS SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z TO 12Z.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH CREST OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES BY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THE DRUMBEAT OF PERSISTENT
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
CONTDVD...AND ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL MTS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG NW WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AND ONGOING
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. THE THREAT OF SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO END ON
MONDAY. AS FOR TH E PLAINS...MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS BUT LITTLE IN
TERMS OF PCPN. TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE W-NW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND BOTH DAYS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS. COLDER AIR IS LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT FOR
THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD AND COMFORTABLE
THANKSGIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...THE GFS HINTS AT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ON
FRI...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ISOLATED SNOW RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL MTS. THE EC CONTINUES THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WED AND THU.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. CONSIDERING THIS IS THE END OF
NOVEMBER...NOT A BAD WEATHER TREND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WITH WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE...AND EVEN POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ALONG THE LOWER EAST FACING SLOPES AT TIMES.  THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE TO THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE AND THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSES ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AREAS OF
LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND OF PIKES PEAK AND THE WET
MTNS...WHICH MAY KEEP THE GUSTIER WINDS BYPASSED AROUND KCOS AND
KPUB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THUS THE TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE WEST TO SW WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE CONTDVD AFTER 21Z-00Z WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED
AT KCOS AND KPUB.  A PASSING SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO PUT INTO TAFS AT THIS POINT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221113
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
PROMISES TO BRING A GOOD ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND TO
SOME OF THE HIGHER AND/OR FAVORED VALLEYS. VARIOUS WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED FOR
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING EARLY
TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND VALLEY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
RAMP UP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS TIMED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ADDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS THE JET DROPS SOUTHEAST-WARD INTO NEW MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN
WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT AS THE 500 MB -32C COLD POOL MOVES OVER
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUPPLY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR SLOPES AND DRAINAGES FACING THOSE
DIRECTIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FT...THEN LOWER QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATING IN MANY LOCATIONS. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION SUN AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SNOW TAPERS OFF OVER
THE SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE SUNDAY...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. SEE THE LONGTERM
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS IN THE HEART OF THE STORM
TONIGHT WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE BEST
COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SNOW WILL CEASE OVER THE SAN
JUANS SO WILL ALLOW SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
01Z/MONDAY ACROSS COLORADO/S SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CAUSE SNOWFALL TO AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK RESULTING IN LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.

SNOWFALL FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STOPS DIGGING AND BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME WARMING ALOFT AND
DECREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT.

ECMWF REVERSED ITSELF AT MIDWEEK NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS40 WHICH INDICATED A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WHILE KEEPING SNOW AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE SYSTEM
SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TOWARD NOON OBSCURING
THE HIGHER PEAKS.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z WITH SNOW LEVELS BEGINNING NEAR
6500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING
SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO VALLEY BOTTOMS. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL
BECOME HEAVY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION. TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KRIL...KEGE...AND
KASE...WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND CIGS IN SNOW
OVERNIGHT. DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR KMTJ AND KTEX. IN CONTRAST...KVEL IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE KDRO IS
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY CONDITIONS BELOW VFR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221113
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
PROMISES TO BRING A GOOD ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND TO
SOME OF THE HIGHER AND/OR FAVORED VALLEYS. VARIOUS WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED FOR
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING EARLY
TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND VALLEY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
RAMP UP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS TIMED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ADDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS THE JET DROPS SOUTHEAST-WARD INTO NEW MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN
WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT AS THE 500 MB -32C COLD POOL MOVES OVER
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUPPLY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR SLOPES AND DRAINAGES FACING THOSE
DIRECTIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FT...THEN LOWER QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATING IN MANY LOCATIONS. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION SUN AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SNOW TAPERS OFF OVER
THE SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE SUNDAY...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. SEE THE LONGTERM
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS IN THE HEART OF THE STORM
TONIGHT WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE BEST
COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SNOW WILL CEASE OVER THE SAN
JUANS SO WILL ALLOW SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
01Z/MONDAY ACROSS COLORADO/S SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CAUSE SNOWFALL TO AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK RESULTING IN LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.

SNOWFALL FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STOPS DIGGING AND BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME WARMING ALOFT AND
DECREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT.

ECMWF REVERSED ITSELF AT MIDWEEK NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS40 WHICH INDICATED A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WHILE KEEPING SNOW AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE SYSTEM
SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TOWARD NOON OBSCURING
THE HIGHER PEAKS.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z WITH SNOW LEVELS BEGINNING NEAR
6500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING
SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO VALLEY BOTTOMS. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL
BECOME HEAVY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION. TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KRIL...KEGE...AND
KASE...WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND CIGS IN SNOW
OVERNIGHT. DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR KMTJ AND KTEX. IN CONTRAST...KVEL IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE KDRO IS
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY CONDITIONS BELOW VFR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KBOU 220952
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF POWERFUL
150-160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET COMING ASHORE THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
COAST. THIS SPEED MAX WILL THEN DRIVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH AT LEAST WEAK BUT SUSTAINED Q-G LIFT AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

INITIALLY...WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HEAVY SNOW LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN JACKSON/GRAND COUNTIES IN
VICINITY OF RABBIT EARS PASS AND MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS...BUT AS
FLOW TURNS MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AND STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING SUMMIT COUNTY. THIS FIRST SHOT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH UP TO A FOOT FROM RABBIT EARS
PASS AREA NORTHWARD WHERE THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS STORM COULD
REALLY POUND THAT AREA WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE STRONG
FLOW...WE DO EXPECT SOME SPILLOVER SNOW TO AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS MAINLY ALONG THE PEAK TO PEAK HIGHWAY WHERE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE. THIS TOO ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN
GOING FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES SO EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET ARE ON TRACK. HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING WALDEN AND KREMMLING WILL SEE LIGHTER
SNOW BUT GUSTY WINDS FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS TIME...THE
PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS SEEN TO
BE TOO SHORT AND AMOUNTS SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED.

ON THE PLAINS...THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT JUST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT
WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE PLAINS SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE DENVER METRO AREA
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD AKRON AND LIMON. WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IF WE SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP.

WITH REGARD TO WIND...THE CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
35 KTS AND A RATHER STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE PROFILE. CHINOOK PATTERN
IN PLACE SO STRONGER AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 55
MPH RANGE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN/RIGHT NEXT TO THE
FOOTHILLS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
MOUNTAIN WAVE STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY DECREASES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FROM THE FOOTHILLS DOWN ONTO THE
PLAINS WITH WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
DENVER METRO SHOULD SEE 60F AS LONG AS MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS DONT
THICKEN TOO QUICKLY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY THIN BAND OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS TIL AFTERNOON WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
WILL DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL DECREASE SOME IN THE MTNS HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE SO OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A BORA TYPE FNT MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS THRU THE AFTN.  HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NERN CO.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS A FEW
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE ACROSS.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS BY 12Z MON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTN.  LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY
SNOW.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS WELL WITH BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
ABV 10000 FT.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A WK MTN WAVE MAY SET UP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS.  THUS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH
WIND EVENT IN THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z.  OTHERWISE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY OVER THE PLAINS THRU THE AFTN HOURS WITH GUSTY NNW
WINDS.  AS FAR AS PCPN THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A CHC OF -SHSN
MON AFTN OVER NERN CO AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS.  LAPSE RATES
OVER NERN CO ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 8-9 C/KM RANGE.  BEST CHC WILL
PROBABLY BE EAST OF I-25 AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AS AREAS NR THE
FOOTHILLS WILL BE FIGHTING STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  AS FOR HIGHS
850-700 MB COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BY MON NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH
STABILITY INCREASING SO SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  MEANWHILE WITH MTN TOP STABILITY INCREASING INTO TUE
MORNING MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NWLY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE MTNS.  LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE 4-5
C/KM RANGE SO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
OVER NERN CO GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR TUE NIGHT AXIS OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER NERN CO WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.  THUS COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN MAINLY NR THE WY-NE
BORDER.  IN THE MTNS EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TUE NIGHT DUE
TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.  ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING
AS MTN WAVE INTENSIFIES AND COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE TO 50-55
KTS. ON WED WILL KEEP IN A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WHILE OVER
NERN CO WILL HAVE A DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NR THE
WY-NE BORDER AREA.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS CONTINUES. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER NERN CO AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS NRN CO IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
COLD FNT MOVES INTO NERN CO BY THU MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S.  THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BEHIND THE FNT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IF IT DOES MOVE INTO NERN CO AS THE GFS SHOWS.
AT THIS POINT NOT SURE WHAT TO BELIEVE SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR NOW AND KEEP A DRY FCST TO REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  ON FRI THE GFS KEEPS A SHALLOW
LYR OF COLD AIR OVER NERN CO WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS READINGS IN THE 60S.  AS FOR
PCPN NEITHER MODEL HAS MUCH MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP DRY FCST IN
PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AT KDEN AND KAPA ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE WESTERLY BY 20Z-23Z. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS. MEANWHILE...KBJC WILL LIKELY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
MOUNTAIN WAVE. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD 06Z-10Z WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A PASSING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AFTER FRONT ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
GRADUAL THICKENING OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FROM AROUND
20 THOUSAND FEET TO BRIEFLY AS LOW AS 5000-8000 FT 06Z-10Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220952
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF POWERFUL
150-160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET COMING ASHORE THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
COAST. THIS SPEED MAX WILL THEN DRIVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH AT LEAST WEAK BUT SUSTAINED Q-G LIFT AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

INITIALLY...WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HEAVY SNOW LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN JACKSON/GRAND COUNTIES IN
VICINITY OF RABBIT EARS PASS AND MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS...BUT AS
FLOW TURNS MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AND STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING SUMMIT COUNTY. THIS FIRST SHOT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH UP TO A FOOT FROM RABBIT EARS
PASS AREA NORTHWARD WHERE THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS STORM COULD
REALLY POUND THAT AREA WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE STRONG
FLOW...WE DO EXPECT SOME SPILLOVER SNOW TO AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS MAINLY ALONG THE PEAK TO PEAK HIGHWAY WHERE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE. THIS TOO ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN
GOING FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES SO EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET ARE ON TRACK. HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING WALDEN AND KREMMLING WILL SEE LIGHTER
SNOW BUT GUSTY WINDS FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS TIME...THE
PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS SEEN TO
BE TOO SHORT AND AMOUNTS SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED.

ON THE PLAINS...THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT JUST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT
WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE PLAINS SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE DENVER METRO AREA
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD AKRON AND LIMON. WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IF WE SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP.

WITH REGARD TO WIND...THE CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
35 KTS AND A RATHER STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE PROFILE. CHINOOK PATTERN
IN PLACE SO STRONGER AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 55
MPH RANGE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN/RIGHT NEXT TO THE
FOOTHILLS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
MOUNTAIN WAVE STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY DECREASES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FROM THE FOOTHILLS DOWN ONTO THE
PLAINS WITH WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
DENVER METRO SHOULD SEE 60F AS LONG AS MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS DONT
THICKEN TOO QUICKLY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY THIN BAND OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS TIL AFTERNOON WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
WILL DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL DECREASE SOME IN THE MTNS HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE SO OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A BORA TYPE FNT MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS THRU THE AFTN.  HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NERN CO.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS A FEW
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE ACROSS.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS BY 12Z MON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTN.  LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY
SNOW.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS WELL WITH BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
ABV 10000 FT.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A WK MTN WAVE MAY SET UP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS.  THUS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH
WIND EVENT IN THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z.  OTHERWISE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY OVER THE PLAINS THRU THE AFTN HOURS WITH GUSTY NNW
WINDS.  AS FAR AS PCPN THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A CHC OF -SHSN
MON AFTN OVER NERN CO AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS.  LAPSE RATES
OVER NERN CO ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 8-9 C/KM RANGE.  BEST CHC WILL
PROBABLY BE EAST OF I-25 AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AS AREAS NR THE
FOOTHILLS WILL BE FIGHTING STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  AS FOR HIGHS
850-700 MB COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BY MON NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH
STABILITY INCREASING SO SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  MEANWHILE WITH MTN TOP STABILITY INCREASING INTO TUE
MORNING MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NWLY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE MTNS.  LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE 4-5
C/KM RANGE SO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
OVER NERN CO GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR TUE NIGHT AXIS OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER NERN CO WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.  THUS COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN MAINLY NR THE WY-NE
BORDER.  IN THE MTNS EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TUE NIGHT DUE
TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.  ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING
AS MTN WAVE INTENSIFIES AND COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE TO 50-55
KTS. ON WED WILL KEEP IN A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WHILE OVER
NERN CO WILL HAVE A DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NR THE
WY-NE BORDER AREA.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS CONTINUES. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER NERN CO AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS NRN CO IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
COLD FNT MOVES INTO NERN CO BY THU MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S.  THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BEHIND THE FNT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IF IT DOES MOVE INTO NERN CO AS THE GFS SHOWS.
AT THIS POINT NOT SURE WHAT TO BELIEVE SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR NOW AND KEEP A DRY FCST TO REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  ON FRI THE GFS KEEPS A SHALLOW
LYR OF COLD AIR OVER NERN CO WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS READINGS IN THE 60S.  AS FOR
PCPN NEITHER MODEL HAS MUCH MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP DRY FCST IN
PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AT KDEN AND KAPA ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE WESTERLY BY 20Z-23Z. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS. MEANWHILE...KBJC WILL LIKELY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
MOUNTAIN WAVE. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD 06Z-10Z WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A PASSING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AFTER FRONT ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
GRADUAL THICKENING OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FROM AROUND
20 THOUSAND FEET TO BRIEFLY AS LOW AS 5000-8000 FT 06Z-10Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220952
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF POWERFUL
150-160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET COMING ASHORE THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
COAST. THIS SPEED MAX WILL THEN DRIVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH AT LEAST WEAK BUT SUSTAINED Q-G LIFT AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

INITIALLY...WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HEAVY SNOW LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN JACKSON/GRAND COUNTIES IN
VICINITY OF RABBIT EARS PASS AND MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS...BUT AS
FLOW TURNS MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AND STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING SUMMIT COUNTY. THIS FIRST SHOT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH UP TO A FOOT FROM RABBIT EARS
PASS AREA NORTHWARD WHERE THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS STORM COULD
REALLY POUND THAT AREA WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE STRONG
FLOW...WE DO EXPECT SOME SPILLOVER SNOW TO AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS MAINLY ALONG THE PEAK TO PEAK HIGHWAY WHERE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE. THIS TOO ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN
GOING FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES SO EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET ARE ON TRACK. HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING WALDEN AND KREMMLING WILL SEE LIGHTER
SNOW BUT GUSTY WINDS FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS TIME...THE
PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS SEEN TO
BE TOO SHORT AND AMOUNTS SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED.

ON THE PLAINS...THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT JUST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT
WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE PLAINS SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE DENVER METRO AREA
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD AKRON AND LIMON. WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IF WE SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP.

WITH REGARD TO WIND...THE CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
35 KTS AND A RATHER STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE PROFILE. CHINOOK PATTERN
IN PLACE SO STRONGER AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 55
MPH RANGE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN/RIGHT NEXT TO THE
FOOTHILLS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
MOUNTAIN WAVE STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY DECREASES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FROM THE FOOTHILLS DOWN ONTO THE
PLAINS WITH WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
DENVER METRO SHOULD SEE 60F AS LONG AS MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS DONT
THICKEN TOO QUICKLY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY THIN BAND OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS TIL AFTERNOON WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
WILL DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL DECREASE SOME IN THE MTNS HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE SO OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A BORA TYPE FNT MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS THRU THE AFTN.  HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NERN CO.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS A FEW
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE ACROSS.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS BY 12Z MON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTN.  LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY
SNOW.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS WELL WITH BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
ABV 10000 FT.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A WK MTN WAVE MAY SET UP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS.  THUS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH
WIND EVENT IN THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z.  OTHERWISE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY OVER THE PLAINS THRU THE AFTN HOURS WITH GUSTY NNW
WINDS.  AS FAR AS PCPN THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A CHC OF -SHSN
MON AFTN OVER NERN CO AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS.  LAPSE RATES
OVER NERN CO ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 8-9 C/KM RANGE.  BEST CHC WILL
PROBABLY BE EAST OF I-25 AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AS AREAS NR THE
FOOTHILLS WILL BE FIGHTING STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  AS FOR HIGHS
850-700 MB COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BY MON NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH
STABILITY INCREASING SO SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  MEANWHILE WITH MTN TOP STABILITY INCREASING INTO TUE
MORNING MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NWLY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE MTNS.  LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE 4-5
C/KM RANGE SO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
OVER NERN CO GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR TUE NIGHT AXIS OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER NERN CO WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.  THUS COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN MAINLY NR THE WY-NE
BORDER.  IN THE MTNS EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TUE NIGHT DUE
TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.  ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING
AS MTN WAVE INTENSIFIES AND COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE TO 50-55
KTS. ON WED WILL KEEP IN A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WHILE OVER
NERN CO WILL HAVE A DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NR THE
WY-NE BORDER AREA.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS CONTINUES. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER NERN CO AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS NRN CO IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
COLD FNT MOVES INTO NERN CO BY THU MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S.  THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BEHIND THE FNT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IF IT DOES MOVE INTO NERN CO AS THE GFS SHOWS.
AT THIS POINT NOT SURE WHAT TO BELIEVE SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR NOW AND KEEP A DRY FCST TO REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  ON FRI THE GFS KEEPS A SHALLOW
LYR OF COLD AIR OVER NERN CO WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS READINGS IN THE 60S.  AS FOR
PCPN NEITHER MODEL HAS MUCH MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP DRY FCST IN
PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AT KDEN AND KAPA ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE WESTERLY BY 20Z-23Z. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS. MEANWHILE...KBJC WILL LIKELY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
MOUNTAIN WAVE. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD 06Z-10Z WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A PASSING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AFTER FRONT ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
GRADUAL THICKENING OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FROM AROUND
20 THOUSAND FEET TO BRIEFLY AS LOW AS 5000-8000 FT 06Z-10Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220952
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF POWERFUL
150-160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET COMING ASHORE THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
COAST. THIS SPEED MAX WILL THEN DRIVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH AT LEAST WEAK BUT SUSTAINED Q-G LIFT AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN JACKSON AND GRAND COUNTIES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

INITIALLY...WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HEAVY SNOW LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN JACKSON/GRAND COUNTIES IN
VICINITY OF RABBIT EARS PASS AND MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS...BUT AS
FLOW TURNS MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AND STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING SUMMIT COUNTY. THIS FIRST SHOT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH UP TO A FOOT FROM RABBIT EARS
PASS AREA NORTHWARD WHERE THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS STORM COULD
REALLY POUND THAT AREA WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE STRONG
FLOW...WE DO EXPECT SOME SPILLOVER SNOW TO AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS MAINLY ALONG THE PEAK TO PEAK HIGHWAY WHERE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE. THIS TOO ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN
GOING FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES SO EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET ARE ON TRACK. HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING WALDEN AND KREMMLING WILL SEE LIGHTER
SNOW BUT GUSTY WINDS FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS TIME...THE
PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS SEEN TO
BE TOO SHORT AND AMOUNTS SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED.

ON THE PLAINS...THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT JUST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT
WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE PLAINS SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE DENVER METRO AREA
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD AKRON AND LIMON. WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IF WE SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP.

WITH REGARD TO WIND...THE CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
35 KTS AND A RATHER STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE PROFILE. CHINOOK PATTERN
IN PLACE SO STRONGER AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 55
MPH RANGE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN/RIGHT NEXT TO THE
FOOTHILLS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
MOUNTAIN WAVE STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY DECREASES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FROM THE FOOTHILLS DOWN ONTO THE
PLAINS WITH WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
DENVER METRO SHOULD SEE 60F AS LONG AS MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS DONT
THICKEN TOO QUICKLY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY THIN BAND OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS TIL AFTERNOON WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
WILL DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL DECREASE SOME IN THE MTNS HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE SO OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A BORA TYPE FNT MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS THRU THE AFTN.  HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NERN CO.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS A FEW
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE ACROSS.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS BY 12Z MON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTN.  LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY
SNOW.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS WELL WITH BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
ABV 10000 FT.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A WK MTN WAVE MAY SET UP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS.  THUS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH
WIND EVENT IN THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z.  OTHERWISE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY OVER THE PLAINS THRU THE AFTN HOURS WITH GUSTY NNW
WINDS.  AS FAR AS PCPN THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A CHC OF -SHSN
MON AFTN OVER NERN CO AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS.  LAPSE RATES
OVER NERN CO ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 8-9 C/KM RANGE.  BEST CHC WILL
PROBABLY BE EAST OF I-25 AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AS AREAS NR THE
FOOTHILLS WILL BE FIGHTING STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  AS FOR HIGHS
850-700 MB COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BY MON NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS WITH
STABILITY INCREASING SO SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  MEANWHILE WITH MTN TOP STABILITY INCREASING INTO TUE
MORNING MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NWLY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE MTNS.  LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE 4-5
C/KM RANGE SO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
OVER NERN CO GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR TUE NIGHT AXIS OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER NERN CO WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.  THUS COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN MAINLY NR THE WY-NE
BORDER.  IN THE MTNS EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TUE NIGHT DUE
TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.  ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING
AS MTN WAVE INTENSIFIES AND COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE TO 50-55
KTS. ON WED WILL KEEP IN A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WHILE OVER
NERN CO WILL HAVE A DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NR THE
WY-NE BORDER AREA.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS CONTINUES. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER NERN CO AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS NRN CO IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
COLD FNT MOVES INTO NERN CO BY THU MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S.  THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BEHIND THE FNT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IF IT DOES MOVE INTO NERN CO AS THE GFS SHOWS.
AT THIS POINT NOT SURE WHAT TO BELIEVE SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR NOW AND KEEP A DRY FCST TO REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  ON FRI THE GFS KEEPS A SHALLOW
LYR OF COLD AIR OVER NERN CO WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS READINGS IN THE 60S.  AS FOR
PCPN NEITHER MODEL HAS MUCH MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP DRY FCST IN
PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AT KDEN AND KAPA ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE WESTERLY BY 20Z-23Z. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS. MEANWHILE...KBJC WILL LIKELY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
MOUNTAIN WAVE. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD 06Z-10Z WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A PASSING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AFTER FRONT ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
GRADUAL THICKENING OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FROM AROUND
20 THOUSAND FEET TO BRIEFLY AS LOW AS 5000-8000 FT 06Z-10Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




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