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000
FXUS65 KBOU 031146
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS CONTINUE A TREND OF SLIGHTLY SLOWING THE INCOMING SYSTEM.
THIS LOOKS CORRECT SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN BY 3-6 HOURS. COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE BORDER AND SHOULD
BE THROUGH DENVER BY ABOUT 7 AM. ONE GOOD SHOWER BAND HAS FORMED
AROUND CHEYENNE BUT IS TIED TO THE UPPER FEATURES...NOT THE COLD
FRONT. AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY DRYING FROM THE WEST OVERALL AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SHALLOW SHOWER BANDS AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO CONTINUE ON THE RIDGES. SO FOR
THIS MORNING THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THERE WILL BE LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. I REDUCED
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME. THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
DEEPENS WHILE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT RANGE. THERE IS COOLING ALOFT WITH DESTABILIZATION AND THE
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
AREAS...AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING. PRETTY
GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...PLUS THE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING...NOT SUPER UNSTABLE BUT A
DEEP LAYER OF WEAK STABILITY. FOR THIS REASON PLANNING ON DECENT
ENHANCEMENT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO A PERIOD OF
PRETTY GOOD OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHILE THERE IS BOTH INSTABILITY AND WIND.
EXTENDED THE MOUNTAIN WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE FOOTHILLS...DENVER/BOULDER AND DOUGLAS AND ELBERT
COUNTIES WHERE THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. HOPING THE HEAVIEST TIME FOR DENVER WILL
BE AFTER RUSH HOUR...BUT AT A MINIMUM THINGS WILL LIKELY BE GOING
DOWNHILL WITH SOME SNOWFALL AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. AREAS JUST
EAST OF THE ADVISORY MAY WIND UP NEEDING ONE...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WIND ON THE PLAINS LASTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THERE IS
MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND.

SNOW WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE LIGHT SNOW IN DENVER ALL NIGHT. BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FRONT TIMING...BUT
THEY WILL BE COLDER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ERN CO WED
MORNING AND THEN BE EAST OF AREA BY 18Z.  CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT THRU MID MORNING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FM DENVER SOUTH ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO THE FOOTHILLS.  EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE RGN BY AFTN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY A A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE MTNS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL
AS READINGS OVER NERN CO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

ON THU A WK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE HAS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C BY LATE
AFTN SO SHOULD SEE READINGS WRM INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO WITH LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER.  FOR FRI DRY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH 850-700 MB TEMPS RISING ANOTHER 3-
DEGREES C WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE OVER NERN CO.

OVER THE WEEKEND NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THUS MAY SEE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AND EVENING AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS. OVER NERN CO A COOL FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  CROSS-SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FNT SO WILL
KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER
THE PLAINS ON SAT AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUN WITH READINGS IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NWLY WITH NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS NERN CO ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20-30
KNOT RANGE. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WITH
MVFR PREVAILING AND AREAS OF IFR. PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHTER SNOW AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED AT KDEN AND 4 TO 6 INCHES
AT KAPA/KBJC WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION DURING THE NIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM
MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-036-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 031146
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS CONTINUE A TREND OF SLIGHTLY SLOWING THE INCOMING SYSTEM.
THIS LOOKS CORRECT SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN BY 3-6 HOURS. COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE BORDER AND SHOULD
BE THROUGH DENVER BY ABOUT 7 AM. ONE GOOD SHOWER BAND HAS FORMED
AROUND CHEYENNE BUT IS TIED TO THE UPPER FEATURES...NOT THE COLD
FRONT. AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY DRYING FROM THE WEST OVERALL AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SHALLOW SHOWER BANDS AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO CONTINUE ON THE RIDGES. SO FOR
THIS MORNING THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THERE WILL BE LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. I REDUCED
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME. THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
DEEPENS WHILE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT RANGE. THERE IS COOLING ALOFT WITH DESTABILIZATION AND THE
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
AREAS...AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING. PRETTY
GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...PLUS THE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING...NOT SUPER UNSTABLE BUT A
DEEP LAYER OF WEAK STABILITY. FOR THIS REASON PLANNING ON DECENT
ENHANCEMENT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO A PERIOD OF
PRETTY GOOD OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHILE THERE IS BOTH INSTABILITY AND WIND.
EXTENDED THE MOUNTAIN WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE FOOTHILLS...DENVER/BOULDER AND DOUGLAS AND ELBERT
COUNTIES WHERE THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. HOPING THE HEAVIEST TIME FOR DENVER WILL
BE AFTER RUSH HOUR...BUT AT A MINIMUM THINGS WILL LIKELY BE GOING
DOWNHILL WITH SOME SNOWFALL AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. AREAS JUST
EAST OF THE ADVISORY MAY WIND UP NEEDING ONE...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WIND ON THE PLAINS LASTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THERE IS
MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND.

SNOW WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE LIGHT SNOW IN DENVER ALL NIGHT. BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FRONT TIMING...BUT
THEY WILL BE COLDER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ERN CO WED
MORNING AND THEN BE EAST OF AREA BY 18Z.  CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT THRU MID MORNING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FM DENVER SOUTH ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO THE FOOTHILLS.  EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE RGN BY AFTN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY A A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE MTNS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL
AS READINGS OVER NERN CO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

ON THU A WK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE HAS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C BY LATE
AFTN SO SHOULD SEE READINGS WRM INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO WITH LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER.  FOR FRI DRY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH 850-700 MB TEMPS RISING ANOTHER 3-
DEGREES C WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE OVER NERN CO.

OVER THE WEEKEND NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THUS MAY SEE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AND EVENING AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS. OVER NERN CO A COOL FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  CROSS-SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FNT SO WILL
KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER
THE PLAINS ON SAT AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUN WITH READINGS IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NWLY WITH NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS NERN CO ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20-30
KNOT RANGE. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WITH
MVFR PREVAILING AND AREAS OF IFR. PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHTER SNOW AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED AT KDEN AND 4 TO 6 INCHES
AT KAPA/KBJC WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION DURING THE NIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM
MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-036-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 031146
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS CONTINUE A TREND OF SLIGHTLY SLOWING THE INCOMING SYSTEM.
THIS LOOKS CORRECT SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN BY 3-6 HOURS. COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE BORDER AND SHOULD
BE THROUGH DENVER BY ABOUT 7 AM. ONE GOOD SHOWER BAND HAS FORMED
AROUND CHEYENNE BUT IS TIED TO THE UPPER FEATURES...NOT THE COLD
FRONT. AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY DRYING FROM THE WEST OVERALL AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SHALLOW SHOWER BANDS AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO CONTINUE ON THE RIDGES. SO FOR
THIS MORNING THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THERE WILL BE LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. I REDUCED
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME. THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
DEEPENS WHILE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT RANGE. THERE IS COOLING ALOFT WITH DESTABILIZATION AND THE
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
AREAS...AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING. PRETTY
GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...PLUS THE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING...NOT SUPER UNSTABLE BUT A
DEEP LAYER OF WEAK STABILITY. FOR THIS REASON PLANNING ON DECENT
ENHANCEMENT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO A PERIOD OF
PRETTY GOOD OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHILE THERE IS BOTH INSTABILITY AND WIND.
EXTENDED THE MOUNTAIN WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE FOOTHILLS...DENVER/BOULDER AND DOUGLAS AND ELBERT
COUNTIES WHERE THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. HOPING THE HEAVIEST TIME FOR DENVER WILL
BE AFTER RUSH HOUR...BUT AT A MINIMUM THINGS WILL LIKELY BE GOING
DOWNHILL WITH SOME SNOWFALL AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. AREAS JUST
EAST OF THE ADVISORY MAY WIND UP NEEDING ONE...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WIND ON THE PLAINS LASTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THERE IS
MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND.

SNOW WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE LIGHT SNOW IN DENVER ALL NIGHT. BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FRONT TIMING...BUT
THEY WILL BE COLDER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ERN CO WED
MORNING AND THEN BE EAST OF AREA BY 18Z.  CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT THRU MID MORNING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FM DENVER SOUTH ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO THE FOOTHILLS.  EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE RGN BY AFTN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY A A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE MTNS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL
AS READINGS OVER NERN CO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

ON THU A WK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE HAS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C BY LATE
AFTN SO SHOULD SEE READINGS WRM INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO WITH LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER.  FOR FRI DRY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH 850-700 MB TEMPS RISING ANOTHER 3-
DEGREES C WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE OVER NERN CO.

OVER THE WEEKEND NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THUS MAY SEE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AND EVENING AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS. OVER NERN CO A COOL FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  CROSS-SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FNT SO WILL
KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER
THE PLAINS ON SAT AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUN WITH READINGS IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NWLY WITH NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS NERN CO ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20-30
KNOT RANGE. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WITH
MVFR PREVAILING AND AREAS OF IFR. PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHTER SNOW AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED AT KDEN AND 4 TO 6 INCHES
AT KAPA/KBJC WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION DURING THE NIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM
MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-036-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 031146
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS CONTINUE A TREND OF SLIGHTLY SLOWING THE INCOMING SYSTEM.
THIS LOOKS CORRECT SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN BY 3-6 HOURS. COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE BORDER AND SHOULD
BE THROUGH DENVER BY ABOUT 7 AM. ONE GOOD SHOWER BAND HAS FORMED
AROUND CHEYENNE BUT IS TIED TO THE UPPER FEATURES...NOT THE COLD
FRONT. AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY DRYING FROM THE WEST OVERALL AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SHALLOW SHOWER BANDS AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO CONTINUE ON THE RIDGES. SO FOR
THIS MORNING THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THERE WILL BE LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. I REDUCED
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME. THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
DEEPENS WHILE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT RANGE. THERE IS COOLING ALOFT WITH DESTABILIZATION AND THE
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
AREAS...AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING. PRETTY
GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...PLUS THE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING...NOT SUPER UNSTABLE BUT A
DEEP LAYER OF WEAK STABILITY. FOR THIS REASON PLANNING ON DECENT
ENHANCEMENT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO A PERIOD OF
PRETTY GOOD OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHILE THERE IS BOTH INSTABILITY AND WIND.
EXTENDED THE MOUNTAIN WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE FOOTHILLS...DENVER/BOULDER AND DOUGLAS AND ELBERT
COUNTIES WHERE THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. HOPING THE HEAVIEST TIME FOR DENVER WILL
BE AFTER RUSH HOUR...BUT AT A MINIMUM THINGS WILL LIKELY BE GOING
DOWNHILL WITH SOME SNOWFALL AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. AREAS JUST
EAST OF THE ADVISORY MAY WIND UP NEEDING ONE...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WIND ON THE PLAINS LASTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THERE IS
MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND.

SNOW WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE LIGHT SNOW IN DENVER ALL NIGHT. BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FRONT TIMING...BUT
THEY WILL BE COLDER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ERN CO WED
MORNING AND THEN BE EAST OF AREA BY 18Z.  CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT THRU MID MORNING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FM DENVER SOUTH ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO THE FOOTHILLS.  EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE RGN BY AFTN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY A A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE MTNS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL
AS READINGS OVER NERN CO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

ON THU A WK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE HAS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C BY LATE
AFTN SO SHOULD SEE READINGS WRM INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO WITH LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER.  FOR FRI DRY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH 850-700 MB TEMPS RISING ANOTHER 3-
DEGREES C WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE OVER NERN CO.

OVER THE WEEKEND NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THUS MAY SEE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AND EVENING AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS. OVER NERN CO A COOL FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  CROSS-SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FNT SO WILL
KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER
THE PLAINS ON SAT AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUN WITH READINGS IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NWLY WITH NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS NERN CO ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20-30
KNOT RANGE. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WITH
MVFR PREVAILING AND AREAS OF IFR. PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHTER SNOW AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED AT KDEN AND 4 TO 6 INCHES
AT KAPA/KBJC WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION DURING THE NIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM
MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-036-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 031146
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS CONTINUE A TREND OF SLIGHTLY SLOWING THE INCOMING SYSTEM.
THIS LOOKS CORRECT SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN BY 3-6 HOURS. COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE BORDER AND SHOULD
BE THROUGH DENVER BY ABOUT 7 AM. ONE GOOD SHOWER BAND HAS FORMED
AROUND CHEYENNE BUT IS TIED TO THE UPPER FEATURES...NOT THE COLD
FRONT. AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY DRYING FROM THE WEST OVERALL AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SHALLOW SHOWER BANDS AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO CONTINUE ON THE RIDGES. SO FOR
THIS MORNING THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THERE WILL BE LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. I REDUCED
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME. THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
DEEPENS WHILE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT RANGE. THERE IS COOLING ALOFT WITH DESTABILIZATION AND THE
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
AREAS...AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING. PRETTY
GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...PLUS THE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING...NOT SUPER UNSTABLE BUT A
DEEP LAYER OF WEAK STABILITY. FOR THIS REASON PLANNING ON DECENT
ENHANCEMENT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO A PERIOD OF
PRETTY GOOD OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHILE THERE IS BOTH INSTABILITY AND WIND.
EXTENDED THE MOUNTAIN WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE FOOTHILLS...DENVER/BOULDER AND DOUGLAS AND ELBERT
COUNTIES WHERE THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. HOPING THE HEAVIEST TIME FOR DENVER WILL
BE AFTER RUSH HOUR...BUT AT A MINIMUM THINGS WILL LIKELY BE GOING
DOWNHILL WITH SOME SNOWFALL AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. AREAS JUST
EAST OF THE ADVISORY MAY WIND UP NEEDING ONE...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WIND ON THE PLAINS LASTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THERE IS
MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND.

SNOW WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE LIGHT SNOW IN DENVER ALL NIGHT. BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FRONT TIMING...BUT
THEY WILL BE COLDER THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ERN CO WED
MORNING AND THEN BE EAST OF AREA BY 18Z.  CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT THRU MID MORNING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FM DENVER SOUTH ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO THE FOOTHILLS.  EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE RGN BY AFTN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY A A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE MTNS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL
AS READINGS OVER NERN CO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

ON THU A WK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE HAS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C BY LATE
AFTN SO SHOULD SEE READINGS WRM INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO WITH LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER.  FOR FRI DRY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH 850-700 MB TEMPS RISING ANOTHER 3-
DEGREES C WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE OVER NERN CO.

OVER THE WEEKEND NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THUS MAY SEE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AND EVENING AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS. OVER NERN CO A COOL FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  CROSS-SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FNT SO WILL
KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER
THE PLAINS ON SAT AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUN WITH READINGS IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NWLY WITH NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS NERN CO ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20-30
KNOT RANGE. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WITH
MVFR PREVAILING AND AREAS OF IFR. PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHTER SNOW AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED AT KDEN AND 4 TO 6 INCHES
AT KAPA/KBJC WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION DURING THE NIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM
MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-036-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPUB 031129
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
429 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AND A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO MIX DOWN THE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME WITH THE COLDEST AIR...
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL ONGOING ACROSS THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST
WINDS (GUSTING TO OVER 50KTS AT WOLF CREEK PASS OVERNIGHT) WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN
TACT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...MAY NEED TO END BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS THE
SAN JUAN MTS AND REPLACE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING...THOUGH WITH
CPW STILL GUSTING TO OVER 40 KTS...WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH THE LATEST HI RES MODELS HAVE LEADING EDGE OF COOL AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 9AM-10AM WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS
THE HIGH 50 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. FRONT TO BE MARKED INITIALLY WITH
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH STRATUS SLOWLY FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SENDS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTS...UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH CONTINUES  TO SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE UVV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH
PROFILES...MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AND ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLUFFY LIGHT
SNOWFALL STACKING UP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS ALL JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER ENDING SNOWFALL WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAY OCCUR IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME PERIOD. INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
WED MORNING...AND SLOWED THE END OF SNOWFALL DOWN BY A FEW HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL (3-6 INCHES) EAST OF I-25 BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.
SNOW SHOULD END ALL AREAS BY EARLY WED EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS. MAX TEMPS WED LOOK VERY COLD...WITH
TEENS AND 20S MOST AREAS. MINS WED NIGHT LOOK FAIRLY COLD AS WELL
DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER...THOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT BECOMES LIGHT
WESTERLY AND FAIRLY PRONOUNCED 700 MB WARMING DEVELOPS BY 12Z
THU...WHICH MAY KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW 0F MOST
LOCATIONS.

ON THU...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST WHILE WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
DOUBT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO MUCH MORE THAN INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS. SURFACE GRADIENT LOOKS RATHER FLAT THU AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WINDIEST/WARMEST SPOTS LIKELY NEAR THE KS BORDER
ACROSS BACA COUNTY WHERE HIGHS MAY TOUCH 40F.

UPPER RIDGE THEN REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST FROM FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
MODERATE NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. MAY SEE A FEW RATHER
DIFFUSE WAVES DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF ALL BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
ZONES. WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE AT A MODERATE PACE...WITH MAXES
CLIMBING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AT COS AND PUB TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BECOME BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS COS BETWEEN 16Z-17Z AND PUB BETWEEN
17-18Z. MVFR STRATUS TO SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE. COULD SEE LIGHT
DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING AT COS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT COS AND PUB THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ059-
064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-
060-061-066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031129
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
429 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AND A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO MIX DOWN THE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME WITH THE COLDEST AIR...
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL ONGOING ACROSS THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST
WINDS (GUSTING TO OVER 50KTS AT WOLF CREEK PASS OVERNIGHT) WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN
TACT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...MAY NEED TO END BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS THE
SAN JUAN MTS AND REPLACE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING...THOUGH WITH
CPW STILL GUSTING TO OVER 40 KTS...WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH THE LATEST HI RES MODELS HAVE LEADING EDGE OF COOL AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 9AM-10AM WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS
THE HIGH 50 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. FRONT TO BE MARKED INITIALLY WITH
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH STRATUS SLOWLY FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SENDS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTS...UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH CONTINUES  TO SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE UVV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH
PROFILES...MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AND ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLUFFY LIGHT
SNOWFALL STACKING UP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS ALL JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER ENDING SNOWFALL WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAY OCCUR IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME PERIOD. INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
WED MORNING...AND SLOWED THE END OF SNOWFALL DOWN BY A FEW HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL (3-6 INCHES) EAST OF I-25 BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.
SNOW SHOULD END ALL AREAS BY EARLY WED EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS. MAX TEMPS WED LOOK VERY COLD...WITH
TEENS AND 20S MOST AREAS. MINS WED NIGHT LOOK FAIRLY COLD AS WELL
DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER...THOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT BECOMES LIGHT
WESTERLY AND FAIRLY PRONOUNCED 700 MB WARMING DEVELOPS BY 12Z
THU...WHICH MAY KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW 0F MOST
LOCATIONS.

ON THU...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST WHILE WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
DOUBT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO MUCH MORE THAN INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS. SURFACE GRADIENT LOOKS RATHER FLAT THU AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WINDIEST/WARMEST SPOTS LIKELY NEAR THE KS BORDER
ACROSS BACA COUNTY WHERE HIGHS MAY TOUCH 40F.

UPPER RIDGE THEN REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST FROM FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
MODERATE NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. MAY SEE A FEW RATHER
DIFFUSE WAVES DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF ALL BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
ZONES. WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE AT A MODERATE PACE...WITH MAXES
CLIMBING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AT COS AND PUB TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BECOME BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS COS BETWEEN 16Z-17Z AND PUB BETWEEN
17-18Z. MVFR STRATUS TO SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE. COULD SEE LIGHT
DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING AT COS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT COS AND PUB THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ059-
064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-
060-061-066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 031129
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
429 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AND A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO MIX DOWN THE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME WITH THE COLDEST AIR...
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL ONGOING ACROSS THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST
WINDS (GUSTING TO OVER 50KTS AT WOLF CREEK PASS OVERNIGHT) WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN
TACT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...MAY NEED TO END BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS THE
SAN JUAN MTS AND REPLACE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING...THOUGH WITH
CPW STILL GUSTING TO OVER 40 KTS...WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH THE LATEST HI RES MODELS HAVE LEADING EDGE OF COOL AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 9AM-10AM WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS
THE HIGH 50 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. FRONT TO BE MARKED INITIALLY WITH
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH STRATUS SLOWLY FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SENDS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTS...UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH CONTINUES  TO SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE UVV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH
PROFILES...MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AND ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLUFFY LIGHT
SNOWFALL STACKING UP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS ALL JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER ENDING SNOWFALL WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAY OCCUR IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME PERIOD. INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
WED MORNING...AND SLOWED THE END OF SNOWFALL DOWN BY A FEW HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL (3-6 INCHES) EAST OF I-25 BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.
SNOW SHOULD END ALL AREAS BY EARLY WED EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS. MAX TEMPS WED LOOK VERY COLD...WITH
TEENS AND 20S MOST AREAS. MINS WED NIGHT LOOK FAIRLY COLD AS WELL
DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER...THOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT BECOMES LIGHT
WESTERLY AND FAIRLY PRONOUNCED 700 MB WARMING DEVELOPS BY 12Z
THU...WHICH MAY KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW 0F MOST
LOCATIONS.

ON THU...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST WHILE WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
DOUBT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO MUCH MORE THAN INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS. SURFACE GRADIENT LOOKS RATHER FLAT THU AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WINDIEST/WARMEST SPOTS LIKELY NEAR THE KS BORDER
ACROSS BACA COUNTY WHERE HIGHS MAY TOUCH 40F.

UPPER RIDGE THEN REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST FROM FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
MODERATE NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. MAY SEE A FEW RATHER
DIFFUSE WAVES DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF ALL BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
ZONES. WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE AT A MODERATE PACE...WITH MAXES
CLIMBING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AT COS AND PUB TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BECOME BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS COS BETWEEN 16Z-17Z AND PUB BETWEEN
17-18Z. MVFR STRATUS TO SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE. COULD SEE LIGHT
DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING AT COS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT COS AND PUB THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ059-
064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-
060-061-066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031129
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
429 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AND A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO MIX DOWN THE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME WITH THE COLDEST AIR...
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL ONGOING ACROSS THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST
WINDS (GUSTING TO OVER 50KTS AT WOLF CREEK PASS OVERNIGHT) WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN
TACT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...MAY NEED TO END BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS THE
SAN JUAN MTS AND REPLACE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING...THOUGH WITH
CPW STILL GUSTING TO OVER 40 KTS...WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH THE LATEST HI RES MODELS HAVE LEADING EDGE OF COOL AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 9AM-10AM WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS
THE HIGH 50 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. FRONT TO BE MARKED INITIALLY WITH
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH STRATUS SLOWLY FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SENDS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTS...UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH CONTINUES  TO SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE UVV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH
PROFILES...MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AND ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLUFFY LIGHT
SNOWFALL STACKING UP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS ALL JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER ENDING SNOWFALL WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW
MAY OCCUR IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME PERIOD. INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
WED MORNING...AND SLOWED THE END OF SNOWFALL DOWN BY A FEW HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL (3-6 INCHES) EAST OF I-25 BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.
SNOW SHOULD END ALL AREAS BY EARLY WED EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS. MAX TEMPS WED LOOK VERY COLD...WITH
TEENS AND 20S MOST AREAS. MINS WED NIGHT LOOK FAIRLY COLD AS WELL
DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER...THOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT BECOMES LIGHT
WESTERLY AND FAIRLY PRONOUNCED 700 MB WARMING DEVELOPS BY 12Z
THU...WHICH MAY KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW 0F MOST
LOCATIONS.

ON THU...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST WHILE WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
DOUBT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO MUCH MORE THAN INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS. SURFACE GRADIENT LOOKS RATHER FLAT THU AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WINDIEST/WARMEST SPOTS LIKELY NEAR THE KS BORDER
ACROSS BACA COUNTY WHERE HIGHS MAY TOUCH 40F.

UPPER RIDGE THEN REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST FROM FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
MODERATE NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. MAY SEE A FEW RATHER
DIFFUSE WAVES DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF ALL BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
ZONES. WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE AT A MODERATE PACE...WITH MAXES
CLIMBING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AT COS AND PUB TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BECOME BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS COS BETWEEN 16Z-17Z AND PUB BETWEEN
17-18Z. MVFR STRATUS TO SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE. COULD SEE LIGHT
DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DEVELOPING AT COS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT COS AND PUB THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ059-
064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-
060-061-066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 031112
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
412 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE ELONGATED TROUGH WAS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN NE INTO MANITOBA. THE ASSOCIATED JET
EXITED EAST OF THE SAN JUAN MTNS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH TERRAIN
GUSTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40MPH RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. SO BLIZZARD
WARNINGS WERE DROPPED THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH THE LOSS OF JET
SUPPORT AND WITH ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION....ONLY LIGHT MAINLY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL HAD OCCURRED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SNOWFALL
OVER THE SE UTAH MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE DROPPED THERE TOO.

THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WILL PASS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FINAL COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THEN
DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST FRONTAL
FORCING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW TO NORTH
WHICH WILL FINALLY FAVOR THE NORTH- FACING SLOPES ESPECIALLY IN
THE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE -33C COLD CORE BRUSHES THE
PARK RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT DRIES OUT
THE PROFILE AND DIMINISHES SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL WINDS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
ONLY SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK WITH AN UNUSUALLY COLD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN STORE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WED NGT AND
SLOWLY SLIDE INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTERN CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS TIMED BY
THE GFS TO PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE WEST COAST
RIDGE WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CO.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL SUNDAY. THU AND
FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE 15 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GRADUAL WARMING BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON MONDAY IT APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THE RIDGELINE OFF THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE JET STREAM HAS EXITED EAST WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE EXPECTED AT OR NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. MTN
OBSCURATIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 550
CORRIDORS. UNTIL 18Z KASE AND KEGE ALONG WITH KTEX...CAN EXPECT
SHSN PRODUCING VIS BLO 5SM AND CIGS BLO 030. A SECOND COLD FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE EASTERN
UINTA AND COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ001-
     002-009-010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 031112
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
412 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE ELONGATED TROUGH WAS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN NE INTO MANITOBA. THE ASSOCIATED JET
EXITED EAST OF THE SAN JUAN MTNS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH TERRAIN
GUSTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40MPH RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. SO BLIZZARD
WARNINGS WERE DROPPED THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH THE LOSS OF JET
SUPPORT AND WITH ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION....ONLY LIGHT MAINLY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL HAD OCCURRED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SNOWFALL
OVER THE SE UTAH MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE DROPPED THERE TOO.

THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WILL PASS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FINAL COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THEN
DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST FRONTAL
FORCING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW TO NORTH
WHICH WILL FINALLY FAVOR THE NORTH- FACING SLOPES ESPECIALLY IN
THE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE -33C COLD CORE BRUSHES THE
PARK RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT DRIES OUT
THE PROFILE AND DIMINISHES SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL WINDS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
ONLY SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK WITH AN UNUSUALLY COLD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN STORE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WED NGT AND
SLOWLY SLIDE INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTERN CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS TIMED BY
THE GFS TO PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE WEST COAST
RIDGE WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CO.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL SUNDAY. THU AND
FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE 15 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GRADUAL WARMING BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON MONDAY IT APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THE RIDGELINE OFF THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE JET STREAM HAS EXITED EAST WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE EXPECTED AT OR NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. MTN
OBSCURATIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 550
CORRIDORS. UNTIL 18Z KASE AND KEGE ALONG WITH KTEX...CAN EXPECT
SHSN PRODUCING VIS BLO 5SM AND CIGS BLO 030. A SECOND COLD FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE EASTERN
UINTA AND COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ001-
     002-009-010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 031112
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
412 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE ELONGATED TROUGH WAS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN NE INTO MANITOBA. THE ASSOCIATED JET
EXITED EAST OF THE SAN JUAN MTNS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH TERRAIN
GUSTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40MPH RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. SO BLIZZARD
WARNINGS WERE DROPPED THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH THE LOSS OF JET
SUPPORT AND WITH ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION....ONLY LIGHT MAINLY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL HAD OCCURRED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SNOWFALL
OVER THE SE UTAH MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE DROPPED THERE TOO.

THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WILL PASS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FINAL COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THEN
DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST FRONTAL
FORCING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW TO NORTH
WHICH WILL FINALLY FAVOR THE NORTH- FACING SLOPES ESPECIALLY IN
THE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE -33C COLD CORE BRUSHES THE
PARK RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT DRIES OUT
THE PROFILE AND DIMINISHES SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL WINDS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
ONLY SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK WITH AN UNUSUALLY COLD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN STORE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WED NGT AND
SLOWLY SLIDE INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTERN CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS TIMED BY
THE GFS TO PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE WEST COAST
RIDGE WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CO.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL SUNDAY. THU AND
FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE 15 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GRADUAL WARMING BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON MONDAY IT APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THE RIDGELINE OFF THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE JET STREAM HAS EXITED EAST WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE EXPECTED AT OR NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. MTN
OBSCURATIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 550
CORRIDORS. UNTIL 18Z KASE AND KEGE ALONG WITH KTEX...CAN EXPECT
SHSN PRODUCING VIS BLO 5SM AND CIGS BLO 030. A SECOND COLD FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE EASTERN
UINTA AND COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ001-
     002-009-010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 031112
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
412 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE ELONGATED TROUGH WAS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN NE INTO MANITOBA. THE ASSOCIATED JET
EXITED EAST OF THE SAN JUAN MTNS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH TERRAIN
GUSTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40MPH RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. SO BLIZZARD
WARNINGS WERE DROPPED THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH THE LOSS OF JET
SUPPORT AND WITH ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION....ONLY LIGHT MAINLY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL HAD OCCURRED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SNOWFALL
OVER THE SE UTAH MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE DROPPED THERE TOO.

THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WILL PASS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FINAL COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THEN
DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST FRONTAL
FORCING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW TO NORTH
WHICH WILL FINALLY FAVOR THE NORTH- FACING SLOPES ESPECIALLY IN
THE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE -33C COLD CORE BRUSHES THE
PARK RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT DRIES OUT
THE PROFILE AND DIMINISHES SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL WINDS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
ONLY SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK WITH AN UNUSUALLY COLD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN STORE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WED NGT AND
SLOWLY SLIDE INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTERN CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS TIMED BY
THE GFS TO PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE WEST COAST
RIDGE WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CO.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL SUNDAY. THU AND
FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE 15 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GRADUAL WARMING BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON MONDAY IT APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THE RIDGELINE OFF THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE JET STREAM HAS EXITED EAST WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE EXPECTED AT OR NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. MTN
OBSCURATIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 550
CORRIDORS. UNTIL 18Z KASE AND KEGE ALONG WITH KTEX...CAN EXPECT
SHSN PRODUCING VIS BLO 5SM AND CIGS BLO 030. A SECOND COLD FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE EASTERN
UINTA AND COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ001-
     002-009-010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 06Z
TAF TIME. WINDS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KALS IS QUICKLY DECREASING AS IS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR -SHSN AT KCOS BEFORE THE 06Z TAF TIME. KPUB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING. A NORTHERLY FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING AND SWING WINDS AROUND FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AS -SN SPREADS
INTO THE KCOS TAF SITE AFTER 21Z...AND INTO KPUB AFTER 23Z. CIGS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS 06Z. HEAVIER SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS 09Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KPUB AND KCOS TERMINALS COULD PICK UP
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
KALS WILL SEE A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR -SHSN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MTS/AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 06Z
TAF TIME. WINDS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KALS IS QUICKLY DECREASING AS IS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR -SHSN AT KCOS BEFORE THE 06Z TAF TIME. KPUB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING. A NORTHERLY FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING AND SWING WINDS AROUND FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AS -SN SPREADS
INTO THE KCOS TAF SITE AFTER 21Z...AND INTO KPUB AFTER 23Z. CIGS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS 06Z. HEAVIER SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS 09Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KPUB AND KCOS TERMINALS COULD PICK UP
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
KALS WILL SEE A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR -SHSN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MTS/AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 06Z
TAF TIME. WINDS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KALS IS QUICKLY DECREASING AS IS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR -SHSN AT KCOS BEFORE THE 06Z TAF TIME. KPUB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING. A NORTHERLY FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING AND SWING WINDS AROUND FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AS -SN SPREADS
INTO THE KCOS TAF SITE AFTER 21Z...AND INTO KPUB AFTER 23Z. CIGS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS 06Z. HEAVIER SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS 09Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KPUB AND KCOS TERMINALS COULD PICK UP
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
KALS WILL SEE A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR -SHSN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MTS/AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 06Z
TAF TIME. WINDS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KALS IS QUICKLY DECREASING AS IS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR -SHSN AT KCOS BEFORE THE 06Z TAF TIME. KPUB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING. A NORTHERLY FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING AND SWING WINDS AROUND FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AS -SN SPREADS
INTO THE KCOS TAF SITE AFTER 21Z...AND INTO KPUB AFTER 23Z. CIGS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS 06Z. HEAVIER SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS 09Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KPUB AND KCOS TERMINALS COULD PICK UP
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
KALS WILL SEE A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR -SHSN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MTS/AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 06Z
TAF TIME. WINDS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KALS IS QUICKLY DECREASING AS IS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR -SHSN AT KCOS BEFORE THE 06Z TAF TIME. KPUB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING. A NORTHERLY FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING AND SWING WINDS AROUND FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AS -SN SPREADS
INTO THE KCOS TAF SITE AFTER 21Z...AND INTO KPUB AFTER 23Z. CIGS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS 06Z. HEAVIER SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS 09Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KPUB AND KCOS TERMINALS COULD PICK UP
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
KALS WILL SEE A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR -SHSN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MTS/AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 06Z
TAF TIME. WINDS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KALS IS QUICKLY DECREASING AS IS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR -SHSN AT KCOS BEFORE THE 06Z TAF TIME. KPUB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING. A NORTHERLY FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING AND SWING WINDS AROUND FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AS -SN SPREADS
INTO THE KCOS TAF SITE AFTER 21Z...AND INTO KPUB AFTER 23Z. CIGS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS 06Z. HEAVIER SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS 09Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KPUB AND KCOS TERMINALS COULD PICK UP
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
KALS WILL SEE A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR -SHSN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MTS/AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 06Z
TAF TIME. WINDS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KALS IS QUICKLY DECREASING AS IS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR -SHSN AT KCOS BEFORE THE 06Z TAF TIME. KPUB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING. A NORTHERLY FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING AND SWING WINDS AROUND FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AS -SN SPREADS
INTO THE KCOS TAF SITE AFTER 21Z...AND INTO KPUB AFTER 23Z. CIGS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS 06Z. HEAVIER SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS 09Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KPUB AND KCOS TERMINALS COULD PICK UP
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
KALS WILL SEE A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR -SHSN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MTS/AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030534
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 06Z
TAF TIME. WINDS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25 KTS. MEANWHILE...WINDOW FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KALS IS QUICKLY DECREASING AS IS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR -SHSN AT KCOS BEFORE THE 06Z TAF TIME. KPUB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING. A NORTHERLY FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING AND SWING WINDS AROUND FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AS -SN SPREADS
INTO THE KCOS TAF SITE AFTER 21Z...AND INTO KPUB AFTER 23Z. CIGS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS 06Z. HEAVIER SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS 09Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KPUB AND KCOS TERMINALS COULD PICK UP
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
KALS WILL SEE A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR -SHSN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MTS/AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 030433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

COLD FRONT WAS EXITING STAGE RIGHT MONDAY EVENING AND COLD AIR WAS
POURING INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY THE COLD ADVECTION IS FROM THE
SW BUT VEERING IS ALREADY SEEN IN THE PROFILER TO BE MORE OUT OF
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

THE AFTERNOON BALLOON RELEASE HERE AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT
CAPTURED A WIND SPEED OF 186KTS/214MPH AT JUST ABOVE 30KFT! THIS
JET IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NW NM TO DENVER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. BUT THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW HARD OVERNIGHT WITH G50MPH REPORTED AT
TELLURIDE AIRPORT AT 9PM AS AN EXAMPLE.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS FOR SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARNINGS FOR THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MTNS
WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED THIS EVENING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BITTER TRAVEL WEATHER.

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FINAL AND STRONGEST COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. LAPSE
RATES CLIMB TO NEAR 8 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COLORADO.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE FRONT
SWEEPS N-S THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FINALLY SHIFTING THE
WINDS ALOFT FROM WEST TO NORTH. THIS KEEPS WEDNESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ONLY SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS ARE NOW PROGGED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAVORING NW-
FACING SLOPES. THEN TEMPERATURES PLUMMET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN CASE
YOU HAVE FORGOTTEN DURING THIS MILD MILD COLD SEASON...THIS WILL
BE A REMINDER THAT WINTER IS NOT OVER. SINGLE DIGIT VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH THE MOST MOUNTAIN SITES BELOW
ZERO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PULLED DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. LOSS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WORKS AGAINST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION FOG IN THIS AREA AS KVEL
SENSOR REPORTING VSBY OF LESS THAN 1 MILE DUE TO SATURATED AIR
MASS AND LIGHT WINDS. REMAINING HILITES APPEARED ON TRACK AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE FURTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SHIFTING EAST
AT 04Z. THE JET STREAM WAS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST AND ALSO
SHIFTING EAST. MTN TOP WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 50KTS THIS EVENING
SO EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MOST AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...KASE AND KEGE ALONG WITH KTEX...CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL
PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 030433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

COLD FRONT WAS EXITING STAGE RIGHT MONDAY EVENING AND COLD AIR WAS
POURING INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY THE COLD ADVECTION IS FROM THE
SW BUT VEERING IS ALREADY SEEN IN THE PROFILER TO BE MORE OUT OF
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

THE AFTERNOON BALLOON RELEASE HERE AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT
CAPTURED A WIND SPEED OF 186KTS/214MPH AT JUST ABOVE 30KFT! THIS
JET IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NW NM TO DENVER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. BUT THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW HARD OVERNIGHT WITH G50MPH REPORTED AT
TELLURIDE AIRPORT AT 9PM AS AN EXAMPLE.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS FOR SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARNINGS FOR THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MTNS
WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED THIS EVENING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BITTER TRAVEL WEATHER.

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FINAL AND STRONGEST COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. LAPSE
RATES CLIMB TO NEAR 8 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COLORADO.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE FRONT
SWEEPS N-S THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FINALLY SHIFTING THE
WINDS ALOFT FROM WEST TO NORTH. THIS KEEPS WEDNESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ONLY SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS ARE NOW PROGGED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAVORING NW-
FACING SLOPES. THEN TEMPERATURES PLUMMET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN CASE
YOU HAVE FORGOTTEN DURING THIS MILD MILD COLD SEASON...THIS WILL
BE A REMINDER THAT WINTER IS NOT OVER. SINGLE DIGIT VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH THE MOST MOUNTAIN SITES BELOW
ZERO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PULLED DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. LOSS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WORKS AGAINST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION FOG IN THIS AREA AS KVEL
SENSOR REPORTING VSBY OF LESS THAN 1 MILE DUE TO SATURATED AIR
MASS AND LIGHT WINDS. REMAINING HILITES APPEARED ON TRACK AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE FURTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SHIFTING EAST
AT 04Z. THE JET STREAM WAS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST AND ALSO
SHIFTING EAST. MTN TOP WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 50KTS THIS EVENING
SO EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MOST AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...KASE AND KEGE ALONG WITH KTEX...CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL
PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KBOU 030411
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
911 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

CURRENT WAVE OF ENHANCED RADAR ECHOES OVER THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IS PUSHING EAST...TRYING TO MAKE IT OUT
ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT MOST ECHOES ARE DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS IT
DRIES OUT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE PUSH MOVES OFF THE
FOOTHILLS...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING...INTO THE 40S FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND METRO AREAS...MEANING THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. SOME RADAR ECHOS REACHING 40 DBZ...COULD
SIGNIFY SOME GRAUPEL IN THE SHOWERS.  MOST TRENDS OF THE HIRES
MODELS SHOW THE CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP AFTER THIS WAVE TO DIMINISH.
HARD TO ARGUE WITH THAT WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING AND NO FORCING FROM ANY SORT OF COLD FRONT UNTIL THE
EXPECTED ONE AROUND 4AM. HAVE DECREASED POPS OVER THE PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...THEN HAVE THEM INCREASING AGAIN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY AREAS OF
SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS
QUICKLY ADDING UP ON WEBCAMS AND SNOW STAKE CAMERAS...WILL
GENERALLY START TRENDING LIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND START MOVING
NORTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 911 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

CURRENT WAVE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND
SHOULD ERODE THE SHALLOW HAZE WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITY...BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY KBJC AND KAPA. THEY WILL
BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER
AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 3000 FEET
BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY MORNING
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL SNOW FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH A LITTLE MORE NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 030411
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
911 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

CURRENT WAVE OF ENHANCED RADAR ECHOES OVER THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IS PUSHING EAST...TRYING TO MAKE IT OUT
ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT MOST ECHOES ARE DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS IT
DRIES OUT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE PUSH MOVES OFF THE
FOOTHILLS...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING...INTO THE 40S FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND METRO AREAS...MEANING THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. SOME RADAR ECHOS REACHING 40 DBZ...COULD
SIGNIFY SOME GRAUPEL IN THE SHOWERS.  MOST TRENDS OF THE HIRES
MODELS SHOW THE CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP AFTER THIS WAVE TO DIMINISH.
HARD TO ARGUE WITH THAT WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING AND NO FORCING FROM ANY SORT OF COLD FRONT UNTIL THE
EXPECTED ONE AROUND 4AM. HAVE DECREASED POPS OVER THE PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...THEN HAVE THEM INCREASING AGAIN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY AREAS OF
SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS
QUICKLY ADDING UP ON WEBCAMS AND SNOW STAKE CAMERAS...WILL
GENERALLY START TRENDING LIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND START MOVING
NORTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 911 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

CURRENT WAVE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND
SHOULD ERODE THE SHALLOW HAZE WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITY...BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY KBJC AND KAPA. THEY WILL
BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER
AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 3000 FEET
BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY MORNING
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL SNOW FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH A LITTLE MORE NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030238
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PULLED DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. LOSS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WORKS AGAINST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION FOG IN THIS AREA AS KVEL
SENSOR REPORTING VSBY OF LESS THAN 1 MILE DUE TO SATURATED AIRMASS
AND LIGHT WINDS. REMAINING HILITES APPEARED ON TRACK AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FURTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JET STREAM IS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
SOME AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
(FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST) WILL POSE CHALLENGES DURING TAKE OFF
AND LANDINGS. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS AROUND THE REGION CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030238
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PULLED DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. LOSS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WORKS AGAINST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION FOG IN THIS AREA AS KVEL
SENSOR REPORTING VSBY OF LESS THAN 1 MILE DUE TO SATURATED AIRMASS
AND LIGHT WINDS. REMAINING HILITES APPEARED ON TRACK AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FURTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JET STREAM IS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
SOME AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
(FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST) WILL POSE CHALLENGES DURING TAKE OFF
AND LANDINGS. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS AROUND THE REGION CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030238
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PULLED DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. LOSS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WORKS AGAINST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION FOG IN THIS AREA AS KVEL
SENSOR REPORTING VSBY OF LESS THAN 1 MILE DUE TO SATURATED AIRMASS
AND LIGHT WINDS. REMAINING HILITES APPEARED ON TRACK AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FURTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JET STREAM IS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
SOME AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
(FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST) WILL POSE CHALLENGES DURING TAKE OFF
AND LANDINGS. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS AROUND THE REGION CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030238
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PULLED DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. LOSS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WORKS AGAINST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION FOG IN THIS AREA AS KVEL
SENSOR REPORTING VSBY OF LESS THAN 1 MILE DUE TO SATURATED AIRMASS
AND LIGHT WINDS. REMAINING HILITES APPEARED ON TRACK AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FURTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JET STREAM IS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
SOME AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
(FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST) WILL POSE CHALLENGES DURING TAKE OFF
AND LANDINGS. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS AROUND THE REGION CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030238
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PULLED DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. LOSS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WORKS AGAINST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION FOG IN THIS AREA AS KVEL
SENSOR REPORTING VSBY OF LESS THAN 1 MILE DUE TO SATURATED AIRMASS
AND LIGHT WINDS. REMAINING HILITES APPEARED ON TRACK AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FURTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JET STREAM IS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
SOME AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
(FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST) WILL POSE CHALLENGES DURING TAKE OFF
AND LANDINGS. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS AROUND THE REGION CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030238
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PULLED DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. LOSS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WORKS AGAINST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION FOG IN THIS AREA AS KVEL
SENSOR REPORTING VSBY OF LESS THAN 1 MILE DUE TO SATURATED AIRMASS
AND LIGHT WINDS. REMAINING HILITES APPEARED ON TRACK AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FURTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JET STREAM IS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
SOME AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
(FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST) WILL POSE CHALLENGES DURING TAKE OFF
AND LANDINGS. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS AROUND THE REGION CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
616 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TAF FOR ALS GIVEN THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY STAY AS RAIN FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS DUE TO DISTURBANCE COMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIGIN OF THIS
STORM IS ALSO A FAIRLY WARM ONE...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS
RAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IF THE
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS...CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY AT KALS.

KCOS AND KPUB TAFS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD CAUSE IFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL MONITOR THIS AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. ONCE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AT KALS
AROUND 06Z. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
616 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TAF FOR ALS GIVEN THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY STAY AS RAIN FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS DUE TO DISTURBANCE COMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIGIN OF THIS
STORM IS ALSO A FAIRLY WARM ONE...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS
RAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IF THE
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS...CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY AT KALS.

KCOS AND KPUB TAFS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD CAUSE IFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL MONITOR THIS AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. ONCE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AT KALS
AROUND 06Z. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
616 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TAF FOR ALS GIVEN THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY STAY AS RAIN FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS DUE TO DISTURBANCE COMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIGIN OF THIS
STORM IS ALSO A FAIRLY WARM ONE...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS
RAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IF THE
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS...CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY AT KALS.

KCOS AND KPUB TAFS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD CAUSE IFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL MONITOR THIS AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. ONCE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AT KALS
AROUND 06Z. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 030116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
616 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST WITH LATEST OBS AND OBS TRENDS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TAF FOR ALS GIVEN THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY STAY AS RAIN FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS DUE TO DISTURBANCE COMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIGIN OF THIS
STORM IS ALSO A FAIRLY WARM ONE...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS
RAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IF THE
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS...CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY AT KALS.

KCOS AND KPUB TAFS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD CAUSE IFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL MONITOR THIS AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. ONCE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AT KALS
AROUND 06Z. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KBOU 030111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
611 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PILOT REPORT FROM KAPA INDICATES LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR AND KFTG
WIND PROFILER DOES AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE WIND
SHEAR THIS EVENING UNTIL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL NOT
SURE IF/WHEN THIS HAPPENS BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST
SHOULD HELP ERODE THE SHALLOW HAZE WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITY AND MORE
STABLE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOWARD 04Z-05Z.

THERE MAY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. BIGGEST ISSUE
WITH THEM WILL BE GUSTING WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE. AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL
SNOW FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH A LITTLE MORE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 030111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
611 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PILOT REPORT FROM KAPA INDICATES LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR AND KFTG
WIND PROFILER DOES AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE WIND
SHEAR THIS EVENING UNTIL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL NOT
SURE IF/WHEN THIS HAPPENS BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST
SHOULD HELP ERODE THE SHALLOW HAZE WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITY AND MORE
STABLE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOWARD 04Z-05Z.

THERE MAY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. BIGGEST ISSUE
WITH THEM WILL BE GUSTING WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE. AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL
SNOW FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH A LITTLE MORE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 030111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
611 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PILOT REPORT FROM KAPA INDICATES LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR AND KFTG
WIND PROFILER DOES AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE WIND
SHEAR THIS EVENING UNTIL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL NOT
SURE IF/WHEN THIS HAPPENS BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST
SHOULD HELP ERODE THE SHALLOW HAZE WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITY AND MORE
STABLE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOWARD 04Z-05Z.

THERE MAY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. BIGGEST ISSUE
WITH THEM WILL BE GUSTING WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE. AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL
SNOW FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH A LITTLE MORE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 030111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
611 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PILOT REPORT FROM KAPA INDICATES LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR AND KFTG
WIND PROFILER DOES AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE WIND
SHEAR THIS EVENING UNTIL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL NOT
SURE IF/WHEN THIS HAPPENS BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST
SHOULD HELP ERODE THE SHALLOW HAZE WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITY AND MORE
STABLE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TOWARD 04Z-05Z.

THERE MAY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. BIGGEST ISSUE
WITH THEM WILL BE GUSTING WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE. AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL
SNOW FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH A LITTLE MORE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030039
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TAF FOR ALS GIVEN THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY STAY AS RAIN FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS DUE TO DISTURBANCE COMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIGIN OF THIS
STORM IS ALSO A FAIRLY WARM ONE...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS
RAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IF THE
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS...CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY AT KALS.

KCOS AND KPUB TAFS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD CAUSE IFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL MONITOR THIS AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. ONCE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AT KALS
AROUND 06Z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030039
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TAF FOR ALS GIVEN THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY STAY AS RAIN FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS DUE TO DISTURBANCE COMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIGIN OF THIS
STORM IS ALSO A FAIRLY WARM ONE...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS
RAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IF THE
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS...CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY AT KALS.

KCOS AND KPUB TAFS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD CAUSE IFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL MONITOR THIS AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. ONCE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AT KALS
AROUND 06Z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 030039
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TAF FOR ALS GIVEN THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY STAY AS RAIN FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS DUE TO DISTURBANCE COMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIGIN OF THIS
STORM IS ALSO A FAIRLY WARM ONE...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS
RAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IF THE
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OCCURS...CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY AT KALS.

KCOS AND KPUB TAFS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD CAUSE IFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL MONITOR THIS AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. ONCE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AT KALS
AROUND 06Z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030016
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JET STREAM IS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
SOME AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
(FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST) WILL POSE CHALLENGES DURING TAKE OFF
AND LANDINGS. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS AROUND THE REGION CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 030016
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JET STREAM IS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
SOME AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
(FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST) WILL POSE CHALLENGES DURING TAKE OFF
AND LANDINGS. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS AROUND THE REGION CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030016
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JET STREAM IS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
SOME AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
(FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST) WILL POSE CHALLENGES DURING TAKE OFF
AND LANDINGS. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS AROUND THE REGION CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030016
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JET STREAM IS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LLWS ISSUES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
SOME AIRFIELDS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
(FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST) WILL POSE CHALLENGES DURING TAKE OFF
AND LANDINGS. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS AROUND THE REGION CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT ALL SNOW AND OBSCURATION. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 022240
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 022240
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THIS EVENING WILL SEE THIS LONG DURATION STORM TRANSITION FROM THE
WARM PHASE OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...INTO A COLDER PHASED STORM. THE COLD FRONT AND THE
FIRST UPPER THROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN A
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA LATE TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

FOR SOME DETAILS...THE UPPER SW-NE ORIENTED JET HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET CORE WILL REACH THE 4-CORNERS
BY 5PM...THEN TO 165-175KT OVER THE SAN JUANS TO WEST ELK RANGES
BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
EASTERN UT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FAR WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL THEN SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST EXITING THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 10KFT FOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS TO THE
WEST ELKS AND SAWATCH RANGES WHERE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RUN FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOST EXTREME HOURS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LIGHTNING EVIDENT UPSTREAM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NV.
HOWEVER A COUPLE STRIKES HAVE NOW BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST UT.
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...AND EVEN INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING. BY MID-LATE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN ALL THE VALLEYS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THEY
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
UINTA BASIN AS THEY WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL SNOW
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TRAVEL.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAYLIGHT. THEN ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PICK UP TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT SURE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH OF A DOWNTURN. HOWEVER THE JET SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...SO WINDS WILL LET UP AND BECOME LESS
OF A HAZARD. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS COLDER WITH -28C/ TO
-32C/NORTH AT 500 MB BY 12Z WED MORNING. FROM AROUND TUE AFTERNOON
ONWARDS THE NORTH WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO A MORE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION...AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVER THOSE ZONES. BY LATE TUE NIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST TROUGH WILL HAVE JUST BE EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. BY
AND LARGE THOUGH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. ASIDE FROM THAT...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY ONWARDS.

A WEAK KINK IN THE FLOW THURSDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN MTNS THOUGH GFS HAS REMOVED ANY SIGN OF PRECIP. LEFT SCHC IN
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ012-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 022229
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW CIGS FINALLY HAVE BROKEN AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT THIS IS LIKELY
NOT TOO LAST TOO LONG AS LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE ~05Z TIME FRAME AND THIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS...SO KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SOME SNOW SQUALLY CAPABLE OF CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KALS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

ON AND OFF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE NEXT
24H.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 022229
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS REGION...

CURRENTLY...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VORTMAX WITHIN THIS TROUGH OVER S CALIF
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST. BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
WAVE WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HEAVY SNOW HAS
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER WOLF CREEK PASS PER CDOT WEB CAMS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS (NOTED BY THE IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE RISES) WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN
JUANS BETWEEN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I ANTICIPATE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OVER THE SAN JUANS GIVEN ALL OF THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. I
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SEVERAL THUNDER SQUALLS (MOST OR ALL IC
FLASHES) GO OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS NOTED IN
THE SPC THUNDER PRODUCTS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE WELL
OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS EVENT THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM A SSW FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND
6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE.

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...ROUGHLY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE WET MOUNTAINS
AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
EVENT (THEIR SNOW WILL COME TUE EVENING/NIGHT).

AS FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUM PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. SIMULATIONS ACTUALLY SHOW VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS ON THE PLAINS AND IT WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED...SO TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TOMORROW...

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EL PASO COUNTY
REGION AROUND THE 10-11 AM TIME FRAME AND WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEW
MEXICO BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT..BUT
IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY DECREASE...OR EVEN END...FOR
AWHILE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT I ANTICIPATE IT TO REDEVELOP AS THE 2ND
BROADER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE FLOW AT 700 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W-SW...SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS. I DO NOT EXPECT EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND I ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE MUCH TAMER OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...SO THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING BY LATER SHIFT.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY AS 700 MB FLOW GOES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALONG WITH THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STARTING TO MERGE
CLOSER ON THE TIMING OF EVENTS THROUGH WED. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
OF THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A SW DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA...TO A BRISK N-NW
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH WED...BUT THE CHALLENGE COMES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD AND E PLAINS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT UPSLOPE FLOW 00Z WED
WILL START PUSHING PCPN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND E PLAINS IN THE
EVENING...BUT BY 09Z A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PALMER PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUM AND
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY MORNING COMMUTE ON WED. THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED IN THIS DIRECTION TO START REFLECTING THIS
NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT...AND CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS CONTAIN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS REVISIT THIS FOR
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDGUST GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON SAT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. 30S ON THU...40S ON FRI...THEN
50S FOR SAT THROUGH MON. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW CIGS FINALLY HAVE BROKEN AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT THIS IS LIKELY
NOT TOO LAST TOO LONG AS LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE ~05Z TIME FRAME AND THIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS...SO KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SOME SNOW SQUALLY CAPABLE OF CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KALS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

ON AND OFF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE NEXT
24H.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 022217
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND HAZE THROUGH 03Z DUE TO A DENVER CYCLONE OVER
THE DENVER AREA. VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES AND
GENERALLY STAY OVER 5SM. THERE MAY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES
OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THEM WILL BE GUSTING WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL SNOW FALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH A
LITTLE MORE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 022217
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND HAZE THROUGH 03Z DUE TO A DENVER CYCLONE OVER
THE DENVER AREA. VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES AND
GENERALLY STAY OVER 5SM. THERE MAY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES
OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THEM WILL BE GUSTING WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL SNOW FALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH A
LITTLE MORE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 022217
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND HAZE THROUGH 03Z DUE TO A DENVER CYCLONE OVER
THE DENVER AREA. VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES AND
GENERALLY STAY OVER 5SM. THERE MAY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES
OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THEM WILL BE GUSTING WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL SNOW FALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH A
LITTLE MORE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 022217
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSPORTED WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S. PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE
UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE JET AND
A WAVE MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MAKING IT ACROSS THE
DIVIDE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THEY MAY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH DUE
TO THE WARM AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE
INTO THE 40S FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MELTING WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. LOWS MAY BE REACHED THIS
EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF THIS OCCURS. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE WILL QUICKLY KILL ANY SHOWERS COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AROUND SUNRISE. UPSLOPE AND
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON
FOR SNOW TO FORM. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2
INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. AN
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH OVER WY WILL HELP TO
BRING SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL RETURN TO A MORE NW FLOW AND AID IN DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS ENDING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL REACH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH NW
FLOW INCREASING DUE TO A DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CA AND
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING BACK SOME SUN AND
INCREASED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER EAST
THAN THE EC. THE EC HAS THE CENTER FURTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT TO DROP OUT OF THE NW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP IT LOWER POPS FOR NOW UNTIL LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND HAZE THROUGH 03Z DUE TO A DENVER CYCLONE OVER
THE DENVER AREA. VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES AND
GENERALLY STAY OVER 5SM. THERE MAY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES
OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THEM WILL BE GUSTING WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. AROUND 11Z...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME TUESDAY EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINES WITH THE FRONT. TOTAL SNOW FALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH A
LITTLE MORE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 022006
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
106 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED THE FORECAST HIGHS AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THIS ALSO HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON SNOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ON THE FLIP SIDE IS THAT THE AIR MASS IS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES... WHICH WILL PUSH
SNOW LEVEL MUCH LOWER IN ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. WILL
LEAVE THE HIGHLIGHTS UP FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BEFORE SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS. ALSO 4 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN VERNAL
BY THE PUBLIC. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME COLDER AIR TRAPPED IN THAT
VALLEY...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...ROADS REMAIN CLEAR AND WEB CANS INDICATE
GOOD SETTLING...SO WILL NOT HOIST ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE THOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO HAVE INCREASED
ENOUGH SO THAT FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. AT 11AM RAIN
WAS REPORTED AT CRAIG AND MEEKER. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CO ZONES 1 AND 2 SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
TO...OR MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
PUSHES THE SNOW LEVELS LOWER. THEN BY MID EVENING...ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED DUE TO NIGHTTIME COOLING AND ESPECIALLY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5PM AND 8PM MST PER THE NAM
12 SOUNDING. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT
FOR A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 022006
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
106 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED THE FORECAST HIGHS AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THIS ALSO HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON SNOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ON THE FLIP SIDE IS THAT THE AIR MASS IS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES... WHICH WILL PUSH
SNOW LEVEL MUCH LOWER IN ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. WILL
LEAVE THE HIGHLIGHTS UP FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BEFORE SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS. ALSO 4 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN VERNAL
BY THE PUBLIC. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME COLDER AIR TRAPPED IN THAT
VALLEY...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...ROADS REMAIN CLEAR AND WEB CANS INDICATE
GOOD SETTLING...SO WILL NOT HOIST ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE THOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO HAVE INCREASED
ENOUGH SO THAT FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. AT 11AM RAIN
WAS REPORTED AT CRAIG AND MEEKER. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CO ZONES 1 AND 2 SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
TO...OR MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
PUSHES THE SNOW LEVELS LOWER. THEN BY MID EVENING...ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED DUE TO NIGHTTIME COOLING AND ESPECIALLY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5PM AND 8PM MST PER THE NAM
12 SOUNDING. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT
FOR A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 022006
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
106 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED THE FORECAST HIGHS AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THIS ALSO HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON SNOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
BE ON THE HIGH SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ON THE FLIP SIDE IS THAT THE AIR MASS IS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES... WHICH WILL PUSH
SNOW LEVEL MUCH LOWER IN ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. WILL
LEAVE THE HIGHLIGHTS UP FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BEFORE SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS. ALSO 4 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN VERNAL
BY THE PUBLIC. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME COLDER AIR TRAPPED IN THAT
VALLEY...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...ROADS REMAIN CLEAR AND WEB CANS INDICATE
GOOD SETTLING...SO WILL NOT HOIST ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE THOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO HAVE INCREASED
ENOUGH SO THAT FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. AT 11AM RAIN
WAS REPORTED AT CRAIG AND MEEKER. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CO ZONES 1 AND 2 SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
TO...OR MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
PUSHES THE SNOW LEVELS LOWER. THEN BY MID EVENING...ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED DUE TO NIGHTTIME COOLING AND ESPECIALLY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5PM AND 8PM MST PER THE NAM
12 SOUNDING. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT
FOR A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021811
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO HAVE INCREASED
ENOUGH SO THAT FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. AT 11AM RAIN
WAS REPORTED AT CRAIG AND MEEKER. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CO ZONES 1 AND 2 SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
TO...OR MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
PUSHES THE SNOW LEVELS LOWER. THEN BY MID EVENING...ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED DUE TO NIGHTTIME COOLING AND ESPECIALLY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5PM AND 8PM MST PER THE NAM
12 SOUNDING. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT
FOR A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021811
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO HAVE INCREASED
ENOUGH SO THAT FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. AT 11AM RAIN
WAS REPORTED AT CRAIG AND MEEKER. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CO ZONES 1 AND 2 SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
TO...OR MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
PUSHES THE SNOW LEVELS LOWER. THEN BY MID EVENING...ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED DUE TO NIGHTTIME COOLING AND ESPECIALLY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5PM AND 8PM MST PER THE NAM
12 SOUNDING. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT
FOR A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021811
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO HAVE INCREASED
ENOUGH SO THAT FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. AT 11AM RAIN
WAS REPORTED AT CRAIG AND MEEKER. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CO ZONES 1 AND 2 SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
TO...OR MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
PUSHES THE SNOW LEVELS LOWER. THEN BY MID EVENING...ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED DUE TO NIGHTTIME COOLING AND ESPECIALLY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5PM AND 8PM MST PER THE NAM
12 SOUNDING. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT
FOR A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021811
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO HAVE INCREASED
ENOUGH SO THAT FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. AT 11AM RAIN
WAS REPORTED AT CRAIG AND MEEKER. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CO ZONES 1 AND 2 SINCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
TO...OR MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
PUSHES THE SNOW LEVELS LOWER. THEN BY MID EVENING...ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED DUE TO NIGHTTIME COOLING AND ESPECIALLY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5PM AND 8PM MST PER THE NAM
12 SOUNDING. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT
FOR A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

BASED ON RECENT HI-RES SIMULATIONS...THE KCOS-KPUB I-25 CORRIDOR
IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO MIX OUT...AND WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL ADJUST FCST PRIOR TO NOON. ALSO
WILL ADD THUNDER INTO THE FCST FOR SW MTNS AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALSO BECOMING CONCERNED WE MAY SEE SOME INTENSE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR REGION FROM LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...2-3 HOURS...BUT COULD DROP
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REALLY QUICK...SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM OF
SEVERAL DAYS AGO. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KCOS...WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC WITH IFR CIGS UNTIL PACIFIC COLD
FRONT BLAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE FRONT GOES BY IT WILL
CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. THE EXPECT VFR UNTIL ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AROUND NOONTIME TOMORROW.

COULD SEE SOME ACCUM SNOW AND WIND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT KCOS.

KPUB...WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS UNTIL PACIFIC
COLD FRONT BLAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE FRONT GOES BY IT
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY.

COULD SEE SOME ACCUM SNOW AND WIND LATE TOMORROW EVENING AT KPUB

KALS...VFR UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN IFR SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
FROM 00Z-05Z...THEN IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY
NEXT 24H AT KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

BASED ON RECENT HI-RES SIMULATIONS...THE KCOS-KPUB I-25 CORRIDOR
IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO MIX OUT...AND WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL ADJUST FCST PRIOR TO NOON. ALSO
WILL ADD THUNDER INTO THE FCST FOR SW MTNS AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALSO BECOMING CONCERNED WE MAY SEE SOME INTENSE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR REGION FROM LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...2-3 HOURS...BUT COULD DROP
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REALLY QUICK...SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM OF
SEVERAL DAYS AGO. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KCOS...WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC WITH IFR CIGS UNTIL PACIFIC COLD
FRONT BLAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE FRONT GOES BY IT WILL
CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. THE EXPECT VFR UNTIL ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AROUND NOONTIME TOMORROW.

COULD SEE SOME ACCUM SNOW AND WIND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT KCOS.

KPUB...WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS UNTIL PACIFIC
COLD FRONT BLAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE FRONT GOES BY IT
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY.

COULD SEE SOME ACCUM SNOW AND WIND LATE TOMORROW EVENING AT KPUB

KALS...VFR UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN IFR SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
FROM 00Z-05Z...THEN IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY
NEXT 24H AT KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

BASED ON RECENT HI-RES SIMULATIONS...THE KCOS-KPUB I-25 CORRIDOR
IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO MIX OUT...AND WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL ADJUST FCST PRIOR TO NOON. ALSO
WILL ADD THUNDER INTO THE FCST FOR SW MTNS AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALSO BECOMING CONCERNED WE MAY SEE SOME INTENSE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR REGION FROM LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED...2-3 HOURS...BUT COULD DROP
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REALLY QUICK...SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM OF
SEVERAL DAYS AGO. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KCOS...WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC WITH IFR CIGS UNTIL PACIFIC COLD
FRONT BLAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE FRONT GOES BY IT WILL
CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. THE EXPECT VFR UNTIL ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AROUND NOONTIME TOMORROW.

COULD SEE SOME ACCUM SNOW AND WIND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT KCOS.

KPUB...WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS UNTIL PACIFIC
COLD FRONT BLAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE FRONT GOES BY IT
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY.

COULD SEE SOME ACCUM SNOW AND WIND LATE TOMORROW EVENING AT KPUB

KALS...VFR UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN IFR SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
FROM 00Z-05Z...THEN IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY
NEXT 24H AT KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021729
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERRIFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.



&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021729
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERRIFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.



&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KBOU 021643
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
943 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO
THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. WHERE THERE IS SNOW
COVER...EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TODAY. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST
FOR DOUGLAS...ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. DENVER CYCLONE HAS
FORMED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE DENVER AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND DENVER AREA
TODAY.

LOWERED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR MOVING
UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TODAY. ALSO WEB CAMERAS NOT SHOWING
MUCH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

STG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN AREAS TONIGHT.  SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS IN ZN 31 AND PORTIONS OF ZN 33 THRU
THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE IN ZN 33 BY MIDDAY.  OVER
NERN CO A SFC LOW WILL BE NR DENVER WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN.  HIGHS
OVER NERN CO ARE GOING TO BE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO LINGERING SNOW
COVER IN SOME AREAS.  IN ADDITION WITH A SFC LOW NR DENVER
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD COVER MUCH OF
THE DAY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR INTO WELD COUNTY.
THUS READINGS OVER NRN AREAS OF URBAN CORRIDOR MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE LOWER 30S WHILE SRNS ARAS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS READINGS COULD RISE WELL INTO
THE 40S WHERE GUSTY SSW WINDS OCCUR.

FOR TONIGHT A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CO-WY BORDER AREA
WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS WITH HEAVY SNOW IN ZNS 31
AND 33.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THRU
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A STG CDFNT MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TIMING OF THIS FNT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN BUT IT WILL PROBABLY COME IN
FASTER THAN MODELS SHOW ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW WILL HAVE IT NR THE WY BORDER BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN THRU
DENVER BY AROUND 3 AM OR SO.  QG FIELDS SHOW STG MID LVL DESCENT
LATE TONIGHT WITH INITIAL FNT PASSAGE SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DVLP AS BEST CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE.  FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS NR THE WY BORDER WITH ONLY CHC POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON THE DECREASE
TUESDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THIS WAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT LATE...THE AXIS IS OVER THE CWA WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL. THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK AND WESTERLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR IMMEDIATE
WEST. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS PROGGED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS STRONG UPSLOPE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
THEN MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT LOOKS PRETTY DEEP
FOR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FOR ALL THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. MOISTURE
DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THINGS
ARE PRETTY MUCH DRIED OUT BY 00Z LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THE OVER THE WESTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OVER ALL THE CWA
ON ALL THE MODELS ALL TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS TINY BIT PROGGED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN EVEN
LESS JUST FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
NOTHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...THERE IS SOME HELP FROM
OROGRAPHICS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL GO WITH 80% PLUS POPS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING THERE. THE FOOTHILLS AND ASSOCIATED PLAINS WILL
SEE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRETTY STRONG UPSLOPE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE UPSLOPE IS NOT VERY DEEP HOWEVER...UNDER 700
MB ON ALL THE MODELS. WILL NEED 70% PLUS POPS IN THE THOSE AREAS
TO INTO THE EVENING TUESDAY ANYWAY. THE FURTHER EAST IN THE PLAINS
YOU GO WILL NEED LOWER POPS. WILL DIMINISH THE POPS EVERYWHERE
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME "CHANCE"S OF LESS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.. AFTER THAT NO POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 9-16 C COLDER
THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. WEDNESDAY`S ARE CLOSE TO TUESDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE CWA. THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR DAYS WITH UPPER RIDGING AROUND. IT STILL
LOOKS DRY ALL FOUR DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

BR/HZ WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 3SM WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE DENVER AREA WILL SLOWLY ERODE. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT AND VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE ABOVE 5SM AROUND 19Z. A
DENVER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY AFTER
18Z.

RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AT
THE AIRPORTS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 021643
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
943 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO
THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. WHERE THERE IS SNOW
COVER...EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TODAY. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST
FOR DOUGLAS...ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. DENVER CYCLONE HAS
FORMED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE DENVER AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND DENVER AREA
TODAY.

LOWERED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR MOVING
UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TODAY. ALSO WEB CAMERAS NOT SHOWING
MUCH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

STG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN AREAS TONIGHT.  SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS IN ZN 31 AND PORTIONS OF ZN 33 THRU
THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE IN ZN 33 BY MIDDAY.  OVER
NERN CO A SFC LOW WILL BE NR DENVER WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN.  HIGHS
OVER NERN CO ARE GOING TO BE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO LINGERING SNOW
COVER IN SOME AREAS.  IN ADDITION WITH A SFC LOW NR DENVER
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD COVER MUCH OF
THE DAY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR INTO WELD COUNTY.
THUS READINGS OVER NRN AREAS OF URBAN CORRIDOR MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE LOWER 30S WHILE SRNS ARAS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS READINGS COULD RISE WELL INTO
THE 40S WHERE GUSTY SSW WINDS OCCUR.

FOR TONIGHT A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CO-WY BORDER AREA
WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS WITH HEAVY SNOW IN ZNS 31
AND 33.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THRU
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A STG CDFNT MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TIMING OF THIS FNT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN BUT IT WILL PROBABLY COME IN
FASTER THAN MODELS SHOW ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW WILL HAVE IT NR THE WY BORDER BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN THRU
DENVER BY AROUND 3 AM OR SO.  QG FIELDS SHOW STG MID LVL DESCENT
LATE TONIGHT WITH INITIAL FNT PASSAGE SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DVLP AS BEST CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE.  FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS NR THE WY BORDER WITH ONLY CHC POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON THE DECREASE
TUESDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THIS WAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT LATE...THE AXIS IS OVER THE CWA WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL. THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK AND WESTERLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR IMMEDIATE
WEST. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS PROGGED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS STRONG UPSLOPE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
THEN MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT LOOKS PRETTY DEEP
FOR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FOR ALL THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. MOISTURE
DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THINGS
ARE PRETTY MUCH DRIED OUT BY 00Z LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THE OVER THE WESTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OVER ALL THE CWA
ON ALL THE MODELS ALL TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS TINY BIT PROGGED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN EVEN
LESS JUST FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
NOTHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...THERE IS SOME HELP FROM
OROGRAPHICS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL GO WITH 80% PLUS POPS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING THERE. THE FOOTHILLS AND ASSOCIATED PLAINS WILL
SEE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRETTY STRONG UPSLOPE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE UPSLOPE IS NOT VERY DEEP HOWEVER...UNDER 700
MB ON ALL THE MODELS. WILL NEED 70% PLUS POPS IN THE THOSE AREAS
TO INTO THE EVENING TUESDAY ANYWAY. THE FURTHER EAST IN THE PLAINS
YOU GO WILL NEED LOWER POPS. WILL DIMINISH THE POPS EVERYWHERE
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME "CHANCE"S OF LESS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.. AFTER THAT NO POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 9-16 C COLDER
THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. WEDNESDAY`S ARE CLOSE TO TUESDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE CWA. THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR DAYS WITH UPPER RIDGING AROUND. IT STILL
LOOKS DRY ALL FOUR DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

BR/HZ WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 3SM WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE DENVER AREA WILL SLOWLY ERODE. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT AND VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE ABOVE 5SM AROUND 19Z. A
DENVER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY AFTER
18Z.

RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AT
THE AIRPORTS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021526
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
826 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERRIFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021526
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
826 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
MEEKER AREA WITH A FEW ACCIDENTS BEING REPORTED BY THE SHERRIFS
DEPARTMENT. EXAMINATION OF THE SKEW-T DOES SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO COOLER SFC TEMPS SO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. DO ANTICIPATE VERY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN SO ISSUED
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON WITH GOOD CHANCE IT WILL
COME DOWN EARLY AS TEMPS MODIFY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021203
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021203
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021203
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021203
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING THE COLDER NORTHERN TROUGH
WAS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE CALIFORNIA LOW THAT WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE JET INCREASING FROM 120KT TO AN IMPRESSIVE
150KT OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTED INTO NE UTAH- NW
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND HAS STALLED THERE UNTIL IT IS OVERRUN BY
THE COLD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRENGTHENING JET LIFTS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND INTO NW CO IN
THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 700MB WINDS OF 45KTS MAY BE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. COORDINATED
WITH SLC FGZ ABQ FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS. BUT A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

SNOW SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THIS
MORNING FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES WITH BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH
WILL BE AROUND 8000FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COLD AIR POURS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ENDS AS
THE JET LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO WEST AND NW-FACING
SLOPES. THE NEW AIR MASS WILL CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL
BECOME MUCH LESS DENSE EVOLVING TO 15:1 OR 20:1 BY LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THIS SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUE NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT WED AND THU. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NW WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM I-70 SOUTH WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. NORTH
OF I-70 SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN/SNOW
LINE VARIES FROM 8000FT SOUTH TO 6500 NORTH. CIGS WILL TREND
LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING THAT WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD G25KT WITH
MORE LOCALIZED G40KT POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. MODERATE TO STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT TIMED AT 18Z-21Z IN EASTERN UTAH TO 21-02Z ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND TIMING WITH THE
ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE ENERGY ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND FASTEST DIGGING IT
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND CANADIAN RUNS IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KBOU 021047
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
347 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

STG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN AREAS TONIGHT.  SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS IN ZN 31 AND PORTIONS OF ZN 33 THRU
THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE IN ZN 33 BY MIDDAY.  OVER
NERN CO A SFC LOW WILL BE NR DENVER WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN.  HIGHS
OVER NERN CO ARE GOING TO BE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO LINGERING SNOW
COVER IN SOME AREAS.  IN ADDITION WITH A SFC LOW NR DENVER
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD COVER MUCH OF
THE DAY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR INTO WELD COUNTY.
THUS READINGS OVER NRN AREAS OF URBAN CORRIDOR MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE LOWER 30S WHILE SRNS ARAS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS READINGS COULD RISE WELL INTO
THE 40S WHERE GUSTY SSW WINDS OCCUR.

FOR TONIGHT A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CO-WY BORDER AREA
WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS WITH HEAVY SNOW IN ZNS 31
AND 33.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THRU
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A STG CDFNT MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TIMING OF THIS FNT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN BUT IT WILL PROBABLY COME IN
FASTER THAN MODELS SHOW ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW WILL HAVE IT NR THE WY BORDER BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN THRU
DENVER BY AROUND 3 AM OR SO.  QG FIELDS SHOW STG MID LVL DESCENT
LATE TONIGHT WITH INITIAL FNT PASSAGE SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DVLP AS BEST CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE.  FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS NR THE WY BORDER WITH ONLY CHC POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON THE DECREASE
TUESDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THIS WAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT LATE...THE AXIS IS OVER THE CWA WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL. THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK AND WESTERLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR IMMEDIATE
WEST. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS PROGGED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS STRONG UPSLOPE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
THEN MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT LOOKS PRETTY DEEP
FOR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FOR ALL THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. MOISTURE
DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THINGS
ARE PRETTY MUCH DRIED OUT BY 00Z LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THE OVER THE WESTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OVER ALL THE CWA
ON ALL THE MODELS ALL TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS TINY BIT PROGGED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN EVEN
LESS JUST FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
NOTHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...THERE IS SOME HELP FROM
OROGRAPHICS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL GO WITH 80% PLUS POPS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING THERE. THE FOOTHILLS AND ASSOCIATED PLAINS WILL
SEE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRETTY STRONG UPSLOPE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE UPSLOPE IS NOT VERY DEEP HOWEVER...UNDER 700
MB ON ALL THE MODELS. WILL NEED 70% PLUS POPS IN THE THOSE AREAS
TO INTO THE EVENING TUESDAY ANYWAY. THE FURTHER EAST IN THE PLAINS
YOU GO WILL NEED LOWER POPS. WILL DIMINISH THE POPS EVERYWHERE
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME "CHANCE"S OF LESS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.. AFTER THAT NO POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 9-16 C COLDER
THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. WEDNESDAY`S ARE CLOSE TO TUESDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE CWA. THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR DAYS WITH UPPER RIDGING AROUND. IT STILL
LOOKS DRY ALL FOUR DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

DENVER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF DIA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO THE NW...NORTH AND EAST.  AT SOME POINT EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE AIRPORT ONCE WINDS BECOME
MORE W OR NW IN THE 14Z-15Z TIME PERIOD.  MAY SEE DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 FOR A FEW HOURS.  LATEST HRRR KEEPS LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG AROUND THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN AS THE CYCLONE IS
LOCATED EAST OF DIA.  AS FOR WINDS THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT WNW BY MID
MORNING AND THEN NNW BY MIDDAY THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN.

FOR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON WHERE CIRCULATION CENTER IS COULD STILL SEE
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE EVENING BEFORE LOW LVL FLOW BECOME
MORE WLY IN ADVANCE OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL ARRIVE AROUND 09Z.
GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FNT PASSAGE WITH A CHC OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BEST CHC FOR SNOW WILL
BE AFTER 12Z ON TUE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 021047
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
347 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

STG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN AREAS TONIGHT.  SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS IN ZN 31 AND PORTIONS OF ZN 33 THRU
THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE IN ZN 33 BY MIDDAY.  OVER
NERN CO A SFC LOW WILL BE NR DENVER WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN.  HIGHS
OVER NERN CO ARE GOING TO BE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO LINGERING SNOW
COVER IN SOME AREAS.  IN ADDITION WITH A SFC LOW NR DENVER
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD COVER MUCH OF
THE DAY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR INTO WELD COUNTY.
THUS READINGS OVER NRN AREAS OF URBAN CORRIDOR MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE LOWER 30S WHILE SRNS ARAS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS READINGS COULD RISE WELL INTO
THE 40S WHERE GUSTY SSW WINDS OCCUR.

FOR TONIGHT A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CO-WY BORDER AREA
WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS WITH HEAVY SNOW IN ZNS 31
AND 33.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THRU
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A STG CDFNT MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TIMING OF THIS FNT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN BUT IT WILL PROBABLY COME IN
FASTER THAN MODELS SHOW ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW WILL HAVE IT NR THE WY BORDER BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN THRU
DENVER BY AROUND 3 AM OR SO.  QG FIELDS SHOW STG MID LVL DESCENT
LATE TONIGHT WITH INITIAL FNT PASSAGE SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DVLP AS BEST CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE.  FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS NR THE WY BORDER WITH ONLY CHC POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON THE DECREASE
TUESDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THIS WAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT LATE...THE AXIS IS OVER THE CWA WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL. THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK AND WESTERLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR IMMEDIATE
WEST. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS PROGGED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS STRONG UPSLOPE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
THEN MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT LOOKS PRETTY DEEP
FOR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FOR ALL THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. MOISTURE
DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THINGS
ARE PRETTY MUCH DRIED OUT BY 00Z LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THE OVER THE WESTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OVER ALL THE CWA
ON ALL THE MODELS ALL TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS TINY BIT PROGGED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN EVEN
LESS JUST FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
NOTHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...THERE IS SOME HELP FROM
OROGRAPHICS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL GO WITH 80% PLUS POPS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING THERE. THE FOOTHILLS AND ASSOCIATED PLAINS WILL
SEE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRETTY STRONG UPSLOPE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE UPSLOPE IS NOT VERY DEEP HOWEVER...UNDER 700
MB ON ALL THE MODELS. WILL NEED 70% PLUS POPS IN THE THOSE AREAS
TO INTO THE EVENING TUESDAY ANYWAY. THE FURTHER EAST IN THE PLAINS
YOU GO WILL NEED LOWER POPS. WILL DIMINISH THE POPS EVERYWHERE
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME "CHANCE"S OF LESS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.. AFTER THAT NO POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 9-16 C COLDER
THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. WEDNESDAY`S ARE CLOSE TO TUESDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE CWA. THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR DAYS WITH UPPER RIDGING AROUND. IT STILL
LOOKS DRY ALL FOUR DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

DENVER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF DIA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO THE NW...NORTH AND EAST.  AT SOME POINT EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE AIRPORT ONCE WINDS BECOME
MORE W OR NW IN THE 14Z-15Z TIME PERIOD.  MAY SEE DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 FOR A FEW HOURS.  LATEST HRRR KEEPS LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG AROUND THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN AS THE CYCLONE IS
LOCATED EAST OF DIA.  AS FOR WINDS THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT WNW BY MID
MORNING AND THEN NNW BY MIDDAY THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN.

FOR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON WHERE CIRCULATION CENTER IS COULD STILL SEE
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE EVENING BEFORE LOW LVL FLOW BECOME
MORE WLY IN ADVANCE OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL ARRIVE AROUND 09Z.
GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FNT PASSAGE WITH A CHC OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BEST CHC FOR SNOW WILL
BE AFTER 12Z ON TUE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020728
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1228 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TO END THE ADVISORY FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 6500 FEET
(EXCEPT NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR NORTH OF I70) WILL BE STEADY THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WILL BE WELL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
AND AIRFIELDS BELOW MINIMUMS WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS...CIGS WILL TREND LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH G25KTS. MODERATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR.

AFTER 22Z MONDAY...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL OR RAINFALL RATES OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WRN COLORADO.
GUST WINDS TO 25-30KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...LOCALIZED G40KTS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATES...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 020728
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1228 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TO END THE ADVISORY FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 6500 FEET
(EXCEPT NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR NORTH OF I70) WILL BE STEADY THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WILL BE WELL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
AND AIRFIELDS BELOW MINIMUMS WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS...CIGS WILL TREND LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH G25KTS. MODERATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR.

AFTER 22Z MONDAY...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL OR RAINFALL RATES OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WRN COLORADO.
GUST WINDS TO 25-30KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...LOCALIZED G40KTS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-009-
     010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

&&

$$

UPDATES...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020558
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 6500 FEET
(EXCEPT NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR NORTH OF I70) WILL BE STEADY THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WILL BE WELL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
AND AIRFIELDS BELOW MINIMUMS WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS...CIGS WILL TREND LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH G25KTS. MODERATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR.

AFTER 22Z MONDAY...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL OR RAINFALL RATES OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WRN COLORADO.
GUST WINDS TO 25-30KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...LOCALIZED G40KTS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 020558
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 6500 FEET
(EXCEPT NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR NORTH OF I70) WILL BE STEADY THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WILL BE WELL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
AND AIRFIELDS BELOW MINIMUMS WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS...CIGS WILL TREND LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH G25KTS. MODERATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR.

AFTER 22Z MONDAY...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL OR RAINFALL RATES OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WRN COLORADO.
GUST WINDS TO 25-30KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...LOCALIZED G40KTS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020558
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 6500 FEET
(EXCEPT NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR NORTH OF I70) WILL BE STEADY THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WILL BE WELL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
AND AIRFIELDS BELOW MINIMUMS WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS...CIGS WILL TREND LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH G25KTS. MODERATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR.

AFTER 22Z MONDAY...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL OR RAINFALL RATES OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WRN COLORADO.
GUST WINDS TO 25-30KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...LOCALIZED G40KTS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020558
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 6500 FEET
(EXCEPT NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR NORTH OF I70) WILL BE STEADY THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WILL BE WELL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
AND AIRFIELDS BELOW MINIMUMS WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS...CIGS WILL TREND LOWER WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH G25KTS. MODERATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR.

AFTER 22Z MONDAY...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL OR RAINFALL RATES OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WRN COLORADO.
GUST WINDS TO 25-30KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...LOCALIZED G40KTS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL TAF SITE WILL
HAVE VIS BLO 3SM BR IN RAIN OR SNOW (SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOORS) WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KPUB 020537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT
KCPW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON
NIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY
EARLY TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER FLIGHT AREA. SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS...WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
AT TIMES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE GUSTY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE...CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
BRIEFLY TO LOWER LEVELS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 020537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT
KCPW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON
NIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY
EARLY TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER FLIGHT AREA. SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS...WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
AT TIMES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE GUSTY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE...CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
BRIEFLY TO LOWER LEVELS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT
KCPW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON
NIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY
EARLY TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER FLIGHT AREA. SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS...WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
AT TIMES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE GUSTY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE...CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
BRIEFLY TO LOWER LEVELS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT
KCPW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON
NIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY
EARLY TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER FLIGHT AREA. SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS...WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
AT TIMES...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE GUSTY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE...CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
BRIEFLY TO LOWER LEVELS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KGJT 020450
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 454 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WILL SEE FLUCTUATING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SNOW...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...OR RAIN. WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 16Z/MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LEA OF PEAKS AND RIDGES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 020450
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 454 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WILL SEE FLUCTUATING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SNOW...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...OR RAIN. WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 16Z/MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LEA OF PEAKS AND RIDGES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 020450
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 454 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WILL SEE FLUCTUATING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SNOW...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...OR RAIN. WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 16Z/MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LEA OF PEAKS AND RIDGES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 020450
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 454 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WILL SEE FLUCTUATING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SNOW...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...OR RAIN. WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 16Z/MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LEA OF PEAKS AND RIDGES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 020450
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 454 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WILL SEE FLUCTUATING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SNOW...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...OR RAIN. WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 16Z/MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LEA OF PEAKS AND RIDGES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 020450
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME INTERESTING WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK. ONE OF THE COLDEST
SYSTEMS OF THE WINTER WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY EVENING THE CALIFORNIA LOW IS SHOWING SOME DUMBBELLING
ELONGATING TO THE SW WHILE A COLDER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW. HEIGHTS ARE CLIMBING LOCALLY AND THE JET IS
STRENGTHENING.

FOR TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORNING LOWS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN 9PM READINGS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING SNOW THERE. SNOW LEVELS ARE
COMPLEX WITH BOTH TELLURIDE AT 9000FT AND MONTROSE AT 5700FT
REPORTING 33 DEGREES AND SNOW. BUT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 8000FT SOUTH TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT
6000FT NORTH. THE JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FROM 120KT TO 150KT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH AND SW CO ARE GUSTING ABOVE 50MPH OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN AND
THAT WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS GUSTS TO 75MPH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WORKS INTO SE UTAH BY MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO
NW CO IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPENING AS IT GOES. SO FRONTAL PASSAGE
STARTS MIDDAY IN SE UTAH AND THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO SOON
AFTER DARK. 700MB WINDS OF 50KTS MAY BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ADD TO THAT NUMBER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE NW CO PLATEAU PROGGED TO GET 3-6
INCHES.

COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE -36C
COLD CORE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE PARK RANGE IN NW CO. THIS NEW
AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LESS
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 454 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WILL SEE FLUCTUATING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SNOW...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...OR RAIN. WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 16Z/MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LEA OF PEAKS AND RIDGES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020442
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

TRACKING A BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS MOVED NORTH OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. THIS BAND IS MOVING SLOW AND DISSIPATING AS IT HITS DRIER
AIR. OVER THE PLAINS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN HALF AN INCH
FROM THE BAND...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES HAS IT HEADS NORTH TOWARDS
LARIMER COUNTY AND THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.

WARNING FOR ZONE 31 STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR STARTING TONIGHT. AS
FOR THE WATCH OUT FOR ZONE 34...WILL LEAVE THIS ALONE AS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH WHETHER IT WILL SEE ADVISORY
OR WARNING AMOUNTS. NEWEST NAM RUN HAS HINTED AT MORE OF A
BANDING SIGNATURE OVER JACKSON AND LARIMER COUNTIES TONIGHT THEN
DECREASING. THIS COULD PUSH IT OVER THE WARNING AMOUNTS....BUT
HAVEN`T SEEN AS MUCH OF THIS IN ANY OTHER MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...CORRECTED

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS. LATER TONIGHT THE PLUME OF MSTR
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ZONES 31 AND 33. THE SWLY OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
WILL FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAIN ZONES THE MOST.  SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ZONE 34...THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT AND
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WL KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z W/
BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS RIDING OVER THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH WEST OF I25 AND
SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST OF DENVER. THE
FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE
WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK
IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING THEN BY THE
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA MOVES
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT. THE BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL
QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW AGAIN INCREASING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND DENVER EARLY.
THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP
SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE
ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT. LGT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG INTO THE AIRPORTS
LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z AT KDEN AND TO 2SM AT KAPA AND KBJC...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER
BUT WL HOLD OFF. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM
CANADA....EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020442
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

TRACKING A BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS MOVED NORTH OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. THIS BAND IS MOVING SLOW AND DISSIPATING AS IT HITS DRIER
AIR. OVER THE PLAINS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN HALF AN INCH
FROM THE BAND...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES HAS IT HEADS NORTH TOWARDS
LARIMER COUNTY AND THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.

WARNING FOR ZONE 31 STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR STARTING TONIGHT. AS
FOR THE WATCH OUT FOR ZONE 34...WILL LEAVE THIS ALONE AS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH WHETHER IT WILL SEE ADVISORY
OR WARNING AMOUNTS. NEWEST NAM RUN HAS HINTED AT MORE OF A
BANDING SIGNATURE OVER JACKSON AND LARIMER COUNTIES TONIGHT THEN
DECREASING. THIS COULD PUSH IT OVER THE WARNING AMOUNTS....BUT
HAVEN`T SEEN AS MUCH OF THIS IN ANY OTHER MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...CORRECTED

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS. LATER TONIGHT THE PLUME OF MSTR
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ZONES 31 AND 33. THE SWLY OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
WILL FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAIN ZONES THE MOST.  SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ZONE 34...THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT AND
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WL KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z W/
BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS RIDING OVER THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH WEST OF I25 AND
SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST OF DENVER. THE
FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE
WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK
IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING THEN BY THE
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA MOVES
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT. THE BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL
QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW AGAIN INCREASING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND DENVER EARLY.
THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP
SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE
ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT. LGT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG INTO THE AIRPORTS
LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z AT KDEN AND TO 2SM AT KAPA AND KBJC...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER
BUT WL HOLD OFF. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM
CANADA....EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020442
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

TRACKING A BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS MOVED NORTH OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. THIS BAND IS MOVING SLOW AND DISSIPATING AS IT HITS DRIER
AIR. OVER THE PLAINS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN HALF AN INCH
FROM THE BAND...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES HAS IT HEADS NORTH TOWARDS
LARIMER COUNTY AND THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.

WARNING FOR ZONE 31 STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR STARTING TONIGHT. AS
FOR THE WATCH OUT FOR ZONE 34...WILL LEAVE THIS ALONE AS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH WHETHER IT WILL SEE ADVISORY
OR WARNING AMOUNTS. NEWEST NAM RUN HAS HINTED AT MORE OF A
BANDING SIGNATURE OVER JACKSON AND LARIMER COUNTIES TONIGHT THEN
DECREASING. THIS COULD PUSH IT OVER THE WARNING AMOUNTS....BUT
HAVEN`T SEEN AS MUCH OF THIS IN ANY OTHER MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...CORRECTED

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS. LATER TONIGHT THE PLUME OF MSTR
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ZONES 31 AND 33. THE SWLY OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
WILL FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAIN ZONES THE MOST.  SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ZONE 34...THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT AND
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WL KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z W/
BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS RIDING OVER THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH WEST OF I25 AND
SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST OF DENVER. THE
FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE
WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK
IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING THEN BY THE
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA MOVES
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT. THE BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL
QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW AGAIN INCREASING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND DENVER EARLY.
THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP
SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE
ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT. LGT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG INTO THE AIRPORTS
LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z AT KDEN AND TO 2SM AT KAPA AND KBJC...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER
BUT WL HOLD OFF. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM
CANADA....EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020442
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

TRACKING A BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS MOVED NORTH OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. THIS BAND IS MOVING SLOW AND DISSIPATING AS IT HITS DRIER
AIR. OVER THE PLAINS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN HALF AN INCH
FROM THE BAND...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES HAS IT HEADS NORTH TOWARDS
LARIMER COUNTY AND THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.

WARNING FOR ZONE 31 STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR STARTING TONIGHT. AS
FOR THE WATCH OUT FOR ZONE 34...WILL LEAVE THIS ALONE AS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH WHETHER IT WILL SEE ADVISORY
OR WARNING AMOUNTS. NEWEST NAM RUN HAS HINTED AT MORE OF A
BANDING SIGNATURE OVER JACKSON AND LARIMER COUNTIES TONIGHT THEN
DECREASING. THIS COULD PUSH IT OVER THE WARNING AMOUNTS....BUT
HAVEN`T SEEN AS MUCH OF THIS IN ANY OTHER MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...CORRECTED

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS. LATER TONIGHT THE PLUME OF MSTR
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ZONES 31 AND 33. THE SWLY OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
WILL FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAIN ZONES THE MOST.  SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ZONE 34...THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT AND
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WL KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z W/
BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS RIDING OVER THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH WEST OF I25 AND
SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST OF DENVER. THE
FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE
WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK
IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING THEN BY THE
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA MOVES
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT. THE BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL
QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW AGAIN INCREASING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND DENVER EARLY.
THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP
SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE
ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT. LGT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG INTO THE AIRPORTS
LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z AT KDEN AND TO 2SM AT KAPA AND KBJC...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER
BUT WL HOLD OFF. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM
CANADA....EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020137
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
637 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMS. HEADLINES LOOK
ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT CPW...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON NIGHT.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SLV
AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY EARLY
TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A REINFORCING
SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NITE/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...MVFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK IN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 020137
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
637 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS NOT PICKING UP MUCH IF
ANY QPF TONIGHT E OF I-25...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY STREAKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CIGS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHSN. EL PASO COUNTY STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR MINOR ACCUMS. HEADLINES LOOK
ON TRACK. WINDS JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP AT CPW...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND MON NIGHT.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SLV
AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY EARLY
TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A REINFORCING
SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NITE/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...MVFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK IN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 012354
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
454 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 454 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WILL SEE FLUCTUATING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SNOW...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...OR RAIN. WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 16Z/MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LEA OF PEAKS AND RIDGES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 012354
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
454 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 454 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WILL SEE FLUCTUATING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SNOW...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW...OR RAIN. WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 16Z/MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LEA OF PEAKS AND RIDGES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 012246
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 012246
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 012236
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 012236
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE POSITIVELY TILTED
WESTERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
LIGHTNING BEING SEEN IN THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SO FAR NONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY IS THERE AND APPARENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS THE
KICKER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DERIVED GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INTERESTING BLOBS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND OVER CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS WHERE PWATS ARE 180 TO 250 PERCENT
SOGGIER THAN NORMAL. FEEDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA IS THE SUB-
TROPICAL TAP...WHICH AGAIN THE 295K-300K THETA SURFACES HAVE SHOWN
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE 32 DEGREE MARK OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW STICK IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND...WHICH LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOW IS UNLIKELY. AS SUCH
RAIN HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND COULD NOT JUSTIFY THE
LONG TERM WARNING. AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL REMAIN SNOW BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
UNDER CONVECTIVE BANDS...HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
PROBABLY PUSHING ABOVE CLIMO OF 13:1.

THE `KICKER WAVE` BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN LOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY REPLACES IT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
INTERACTION CREATES A STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEFORM...WHICH IN RESPONSE
INDUCES A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS JET IN
TURN WILL PUSH A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
VALLEYS BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UPGLIDE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TERRAIN..WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO VAIL PASS. FARTHER SOUTH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL BE DISRUPTED BY THIS JET AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL
LULL WITH JUST THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWER. HEAVY SNOW IN THESE
SHOWERS NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT WHEN AND WHERE TO HARD TO
PREDICT...SO JUST A DOWNTREND IN POPS/QPF/SNOW IN PLACE FOR NOW IN
THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GENERAL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW
GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE
AT PASS LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOP AND LOWER AT MOUNTAIN BASES.
MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLOUD AND WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE IN THE MORNING...ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT (7H TEMPS OF -2
TO -3 DEGS IN THE MORNING AND NEAR 0 DEGS DURING THE AFTERNOON)
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE HILITES FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW ROUGHLY 7000 FEET ON MONDAY.
IN CONTRAST...MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE (7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 TO 4.3 G/KG)
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DUE TO BOTH OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH TROFPA MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER AS 7H TEMPERATURES DECREASE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS SUGGEST
A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UTAH. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAME IN PRETTY MILD SO BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT. CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL MODERATE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARED WELL
REPRESENTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...THIS ONE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST...NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 7H TEMPS AS LOW AS -20 DEG C WERE INDICATED BY
MODELS ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CONSEQUENTLY...
APPEARS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE HILITES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS A BIT DIVIDED ON HOW LONG SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HILITES FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. BEFORE
THIS IS ALL OVER...STILL LOOKING AT FEET OF SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER FOLLOWS A PERIOD OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
LAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EC AND GFS DIFFER WITH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EC GENERATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FROM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROVIDING
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BOTH INDICATED A DRY SUNDAY HOWEVER.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KPUB 012229
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SLV
AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY EARLY
TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A REINFORCING
SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NITE/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...MVFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK IN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 012229
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENTLY...NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TODAY...AS CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY SLID EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW VSBY AND SNOW
ALL DAY...AND WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SW WINDS HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO PICK UP. ALS HAS REPORTED INTERMITTENT SNOW...BUT TEMPS
THERE HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE E PLAINS...NO SNOW AS
OF YET AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HAZY...PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EDGE
EASTWARD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
COLORADO SO MUCH...BUT IT DOES SHIFT THE UPPER JET SLIGHTLY. THE
CORE OF THE JET WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW...SO
ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE WOLF CREEK AREA LOOKS GOOD AS
CONDITIONS THERE ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
CONTDVD...N SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION. BROADER SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE HI RES MODELS. FEEL THAT SOME
SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT SAVE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR PERHAPS TWO. THE SAME GOES FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH THERE ALWAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPILL
OVER FROM THE DIVIDE.

SINCE THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH...SUPPORT HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE
ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE S SANGRES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THOUGH
THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW...THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS DO NOT
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THEM AT THIS TIME. THE
WARNING FOR THE N SANGRES ABOVE 11K FT CONTINUES SINCE THAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ADDED PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO THE WX GRIDS FOR THE SLV
AND E PLAINS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

FINALLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS THE INCREASING WINDS COULD
OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
RATHER MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. MOORE


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 2ND TROUGH AXIS...

WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD (MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT). BY EARLY
TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. A REINFORCING
SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING....

AN INTENSE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. I EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS DURING THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN I
BELIEVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BLAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITHOUT SAYING...IT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE VERY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ALL OF THE
MTNS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SAN JUAN EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS.

FOR THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT IT WILL BE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RYE TO LA JUNTA TO EADS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR  MAINLY FROM KIM TO TWO BUTTES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAINLY ABOVE
6500 FEET (N EL PASO COUNTY). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GREATER
PUEBLO REGION.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION...WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE...BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE PUEBLO REGION AFTER THE AXIS GOES
PAST.

TUESDAY...

USUALLY WITH THE TROUGH GOING BY THE SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS ENDS.
HOWEVER THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THIS STORM. I DO
EXPECT THE SNOW DECREASE OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER THE
LEAD TROUGH GOES BY...BUT A 2ND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A WESTERLY...AND POTENTIALLY A W-SW
DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I KEPT THE WARNINGS UP
FOR THE SAN JUAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING BY LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES SWILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION (EL PASO COUNTY) BY LATE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN HOTTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THERE LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. I SHOULD NOTE....THAT
IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WE MAY SEE "FLASH BLIZZARD" CONDITIONS (2-3H
OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH) TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 2ND TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY

WEDNESDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SNOW DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

MAINLY DRY NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A QUICK BUT TIGHTLY WOUND-UP SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR NOW I PUT IN SOME LOW END POPS SAT
NITE/EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND E SHOW THIS QUICK MOVING/TIGHT
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...MVFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR TRENDING TOWARDS IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK IN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 012226
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...CORRECTED

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS. LATER TONIGHT THE PLUME OF MSTR
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ZONES 31 AND 33. THE SWLY OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
WILL FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAIN ZONES THE MOST.  SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ZONE 34...THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT AND
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WL KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z W/
BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS RIDING OVER THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH WEST OF I25 AND
SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST OF DENVER. THE
FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE
WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK
IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING THEN BY THE
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA MOVES
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT. THE BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL
QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW AGAIN INCREASING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND DENVER EARLY.
THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP
SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE
ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AT KDEN...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS HIGHER AT KBJC AND KAPA. LGT WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG IN DIA LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER BUT WL HOLD OFF INCLUDING THAT
POSSIBILITY AT KDEN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012226
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...CORRECTED

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS. LATER TONIGHT THE PLUME OF MSTR
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ZONES 31 AND 33. THE SWLY OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
WILL FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAIN ZONES THE MOST.  SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ZONE 34...THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT AND
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WL KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z W/
BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS RIDING OVER THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH WEST OF I25 AND
SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST OF DENVER. THE
FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE
WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK
IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING THEN BY THE
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA MOVES
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT. THE BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL
QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW AGAIN INCREASING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND DENVER EARLY.
THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP
SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE
ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AT KDEN...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS HIGHER AT KBJC AND KAPA. LGT WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG IN DIA LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER BUT WL HOLD OFF INCLUDING THAT
POSSIBILITY AT KDEN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012226
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...CORRECTED

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS. LATER TONIGHT THE PLUME OF MSTR
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ZONES 31 AND 33. THE SWLY OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
WILL FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAIN ZONES THE MOST.  SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ZONE 34...THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT AND
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WL KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z W/
BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS RIDING OVER THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH WEST OF I25 AND
SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST OF DENVER. THE
FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE
WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK
IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING THEN BY THE
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA MOVES
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT. THE BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL
QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW AGAIN INCREASING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND DENVER EARLY.
THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP
SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE
ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AT KDEN...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS HIGHER AT KBJC AND KAPA. LGT WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG IN DIA LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER BUT WL HOLD OFF INCLUDING THAT
POSSIBILITY AT KDEN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012226
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...CORRECTED

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS. LATER TONIGHT THE PLUME OF MSTR
SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ZONES 31 AND 33. THE SWLY OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
WILL FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAIN ZONES THE MOST.  SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ZONE 34...THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT AND
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WL KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z W/
BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS RIDING OVER THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH WEST OF I25 AND
SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST OF DENVER. THE
FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE
WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK
IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING THEN BY THE
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA MOVES
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT. THE BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL
QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW AGAIN INCREASING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND DENVER EARLY.
THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP
SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE
ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AT KDEN...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS HIGHER AT KBJC AND KAPA. LGT WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG IN DIA LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER BUT WL HOLD OFF INCLUDING THAT
POSSIBILITY AT KDEN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012125
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
225 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...THEN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD
INTO THOSE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ZONES 31 AND
33 THE MOST. SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA
ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z WITH BETTER MID AND LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING
OVER THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH
WEST OF I25 AND SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST
OF DENVER. THE FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO
NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF A BREAK IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
THEN BY THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER
SRN CA MOVES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT BY 00Z TUESDAY.
BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW
AGAIN INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
AND AROUND DENVER EARLY. THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON
DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT
THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF
THE DENVER AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID
LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AT KDEN...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS HIGHER AT KBJC AND KAPA. LGT WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG IN DIA LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER BUT WL HOLD OFF INCLUDING THAT
POSSIBILITY AT KDEN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012125
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
225 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...THEN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD
INTO THOSE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ZONES 31 AND
33 THE MOST. SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA
ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z WITH BETTER MID AND LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING
OVER THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH
WEST OF I25 AND SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST
OF DENVER. THE FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO
NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF A BREAK IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
THEN BY THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER
SRN CA MOVES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT BY 00Z TUESDAY.
BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW
AGAIN INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
AND AROUND DENVER EARLY. THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON
DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT
THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF
THE DENVER AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID
LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AT KDEN...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS HIGHER AT KBJC AND KAPA. LGT WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG IN DIA LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER BUT WL HOLD OFF INCLUDING THAT
POSSIBILITY AT KDEN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 012125
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
225 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...THEN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD
INTO THOSE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ZONES 31 AND
33 THE MOST. SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA
ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z WITH BETTER MID AND LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING
OVER THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH
WEST OF I25 AND SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST
OF DENVER. THE FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO
NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF A BREAK IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
THEN BY THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER
SRN CA MOVES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT BY 00Z TUESDAY.
BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW
AGAIN INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
AND AROUND DENVER EARLY. THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON
DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT
THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF
THE DENVER AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID
LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AT KDEN...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS HIGHER AT KBJC AND KAPA. LGT WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG IN DIA LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER BUT WL HOLD OFF INCLUDING THAT
POSSIBILITY AT KDEN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012125
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
225 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF I70 THIS EVENING...THEN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD
INTO THOSE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ZONES 31 AND
33 THE MOST. SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CARRYOVER INTO TUESDAY...WL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ZONE 31 AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA
ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z WITH BETTER MID AND LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING
OVER THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED...MAYBE AN INCH
WEST OF I25 AND SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. LESSER POPS NORTHEAST
OF DENVER. THE FOCUS OF PCPN BY 12Z MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO
NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF A BREAK IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
THEN BY THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH OVER
SRN CA MOVES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/WESTERN UT BY 00Z TUESDAY.
BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL BE IN THE AFTN...WITH SNOW
AGAIN INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
AND AROUND DENVER EARLY. THE ARCTIC AMS WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON
DENVER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOER TO MOVE OUT
THAN THE MDLS SUGGEST. WL KEEP SOME LOW 40S OVER SRN/SWRN PARTS OF
THE DENVER AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH. IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THERE COULD BE MORE OF
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMER MID
LEVEL AIR FILLING INTO THE AREA AND THE ARCTIC AMS SHIFTING EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE JET MOVING
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE AND KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

FOR THE PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE GFS IS
CLOSER TO AKRON AND THE NAM12 TRACK IS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
EXITS THE STATE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE. AN UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT AND PRODUCE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. OVER THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER...SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. WILL HAVE HIGHS POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
AND CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO...THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE AND IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AND THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. THE 12Z NAM HAS
VERY COLD AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES KEEPS
GETTING SHIFTED WEST BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AT KDEN...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS HIGHER AT KBJC AND KAPA. LGT WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CYCLONE COULD AGAIN BRING FOG IN DIA LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP OF 1/2 MILE VSBY AFTER
12Z...COULD HOWEVER BE LOWER BUT WL HOLD OFF INCLUDING THAT
POSSIBILITY AT KDEN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL THE AIRPORTS
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ031.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 012103
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
203 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WARM AIR WINS. THIS POSSIBILITY WAS ALWAYS IN THE CARDS FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT STILL HAVE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH THE 4 INCH
PER HOUR RATE AT CORTEZ YESTERDAY. TODAY THEY HAVE TURNED TO RAIN
AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTH OF DURANGO. REPORTS FROM OVERNIGHT SHOW
SOME CREDENCE TO WARNINGS IN HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH OVER A FOOT IN
SEVERAL AREAS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND ELKS. OTHER REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE
COME OUT MONUMENT VALLEY WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO LIFT AND
IS CLOSER TO THE JET DYNAMICS. SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE DOWN
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LA PLATA COUNTY LINE. IMPACT TO ROADWAYS AND THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL DO NOT WARRANT WARNING CRITERIA
ATTM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW THE THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. MORE DETAILS IN AFTERNOON AFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 012103
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
203 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WARM AIR WINS. THIS POSSIBILITY WAS ALWAYS IN THE CARDS FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT STILL HAVE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH THE 4 INCH
PER HOUR RATE AT CORTEZ YESTERDAY. TODAY THEY HAVE TURNED TO RAIN
AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTH OF DURANGO. REPORTS FROM OVERNIGHT SHOW
SOME CREDENCE TO WARNINGS IN HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH OVER A FOOT IN
SEVERAL AREAS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND ELKS. OTHER REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE
COME OUT MONUMENT VALLEY WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO LIFT AND
IS CLOSER TO THE JET DYNAMICS. SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE DOWN
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LA PLATA COUNTY LINE. IMPACT TO ROADWAYS AND THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL DO NOT WARRANT WARNING CRITERIA
ATTM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW THE THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. MORE DETAILS IN AFTERNOON AFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ025-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011758
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1058 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES OVR PORTIONS OF THE SANGRES THIS
MORNING...WITH WEB CAMS SHOWING SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SW MTNS.
THERE MAY BE OCNL SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WELL.  HYR CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVR THE SERN PLAINS...BUT
THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES.

AN UPR LOW WL REMAIN ALONG THE SRN CA COAST THRU THE DAY.  THE UPR
LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...WITH THE UPR TROF BEGINNING TO
MOVE EASTWARD. W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE ACRS CO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW THE CONTINUED STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE
CONTDVD.  ALTHOUGH THE MTNS OF THE CONTDVD WL GET SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL
STILL BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA.  WINDS THIS MORNING ARE NOT REACHING
BLIZZARD CRITERIA OVER ZONE 68...BUT LATER TODAY THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AND GUSTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
STRONG...AND WITH THE HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THE BLSN AND NEAR ZERO
VSBYS WL BE QUITE DANGEROUS. WL LEAVE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AS IS.

THE NAM THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...SO WL REMOVE POPS IN
THESE AREAS.  PROBABLY WL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN OVR MOST
OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EITHER...BUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PCPN RAMPING UP OVR THE ERN MTNS
AROUND MIDAFTERNOON AND SPILLING OUT OVR PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR THRU THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN MAINLY FROM THE WET MTNS AND NRN
SANGRES AND LOCATIONS NORTH...NOT REALLY SHOWING ALL THAT MUCH FOR
THE SRN SANGRES...AND THE NAM AND HRRR STILL HAVE THAT TREND. THIS
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN SANGRES THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THE HRRR AND NAM. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE OVR
EL PASO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES
AND WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE
FOR PCPN OVR MOST OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT WL PUT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST.  BY LATE NIGHT...PCPN
OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR EL PASO COUNTY SHOULD KEEP
SNOW GOING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.  ALSO...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR THE NRN SANGRES...
THE WET MTNS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY THRU THE NIGHT.  ONE CONCERN
IS THAT IF LIGHT PCPN DOES OCCUR OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...THE
SOUNDING PROFILE STILL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THEREAFTER...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE DESERT SW MERGES WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SNOWFALL
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE ON THE WANE EARLY MONDAY
MONDAY MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE CONTDVD...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...UVV AND OROGRAPHICS AHEAD OF THE COMBINING SYSTEMS.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVD. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS HELPING TO BOOST HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGHS MOST LIKELY BEING REACHED
BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WITHIN
THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES...DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...VFR TO INTERMITTENT MVFR DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG
THROUGH 20-21Z...THEN TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR UNTIL 21-23Z THEN IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011758
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1058 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES OVR PORTIONS OF THE SANGRES THIS
MORNING...WITH WEB CAMS SHOWING SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SW MTNS.
THERE MAY BE OCNL SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WELL.  HYR CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVR THE SERN PLAINS...BUT
THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES.

AN UPR LOW WL REMAIN ALONG THE SRN CA COAST THRU THE DAY.  THE UPR
LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...WITH THE UPR TROF BEGINNING TO
MOVE EASTWARD. W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE ACRS CO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW THE CONTINUED STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE
CONTDVD.  ALTHOUGH THE MTNS OF THE CONTDVD WL GET SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL
STILL BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA.  WINDS THIS MORNING ARE NOT REACHING
BLIZZARD CRITERIA OVER ZONE 68...BUT LATER TODAY THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AND GUSTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
STRONG...AND WITH THE HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THE BLSN AND NEAR ZERO
VSBYS WL BE QUITE DANGEROUS. WL LEAVE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AS IS.

THE NAM THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...SO WL REMOVE POPS IN
THESE AREAS.  PROBABLY WL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN OVR MOST
OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EITHER...BUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PCPN RAMPING UP OVR THE ERN MTNS
AROUND MIDAFTERNOON AND SPILLING OUT OVR PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR THRU THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN MAINLY FROM THE WET MTNS AND NRN
SANGRES AND LOCATIONS NORTH...NOT REALLY SHOWING ALL THAT MUCH FOR
THE SRN SANGRES...AND THE NAM AND HRRR STILL HAVE THAT TREND. THIS
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN SANGRES THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THE HRRR AND NAM. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE OVR
EL PASO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES
AND WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE
FOR PCPN OVR MOST OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT WL PUT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST.  BY LATE NIGHT...PCPN
OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR EL PASO COUNTY SHOULD KEEP
SNOW GOING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.  ALSO...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR THE NRN SANGRES...
THE WET MTNS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY THRU THE NIGHT.  ONE CONCERN
IS THAT IF LIGHT PCPN DOES OCCUR OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...THE
SOUNDING PROFILE STILL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THEREAFTER...

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE AS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE DESERT SW MERGES WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SNOWFALL
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE ON THE WANE EARLY MONDAY
MONDAY MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE CONTDVD...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...UVV AND OROGRAPHICS AHEAD OF THE COMBINING SYSTEMS.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVD. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS HELPING TO BOOST HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGHS MOST LIKELY BEING REACHED
BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WITHIN
THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES...DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KCOS...VFR TO INTERMITTENT MVFR DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG
THROUGH 20-21Z...THEN TRENDING TOWARDS IFR AS SNOW MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR UNTIL 21-23Z THEN IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES IN. SHOULD REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH 12-14Z DUE TO SNOW...FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECK THOUGH GROUND FOG MAY LINGER BEYOND SNOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...INTERMITTENT SNOW HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTN...AND WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067-073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ059-064-065-
074.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011747
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1047 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011747
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1047 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011747
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1047 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011747
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1047 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011747
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1047 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011747
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1047 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO BELOW
IFR AS BANDS SET UP. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES.  AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KBOU 011710
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING..I SLOWED THE TIMING
OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY...OVERALL SLGT CHC IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...WITH CHC POPS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AND THEN INCREASE TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA.  SO FAR MOST OF THE
CWA IS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE
WY BORDER WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LARIMER COUNTY
AND NWRN WELD COUNTY. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND 12Z EXCEPT IN THE MTNS.

BY LATER THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MTNS WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOW CHANCES.  BY LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO THE
MTNS.  SATELLITE DOES SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER ARIZONA SO IT APPEARS
THAT THIS MOISTURE IS REAL.  THUS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW
ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE
GOING TO EVOLVE.  THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE SRN
FOOTHILLS AND AFFECTING SRN AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY HOURS.  THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS OVER SRN AREAS OF CWA WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH. AS FOR
HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS N THE 20S OVER NERN CO EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR NERN CORNER WHERE READINGS MAY RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.

OVERNIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL INTENSIFY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
MTNS.  PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT IN ZN 31 AND PORTIONS OF ZN 33 ALTHOUGH MID
LVL TEMPS ARE WARMING QUITE A BIT WHICH COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.  OVER
NERN CO THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SSE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
STG DOWNSLOPING COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH SHOULD DECREASE
PCPN CHANCES FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE.  CLOSER TO THE WY
BORDER THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE MORE SELY SO COULD STILL SEE A CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROGGED SPEEDS ARE IN THE 130 TO
160 KNOT RANGE AT JET LEVEL. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
COLORADO. THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE CWA MONDAY...BUT IT BECOMES STRONGER BY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF UPWARD ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
MONDAY EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE MOVES IN SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AT DAWN. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE PROGGED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE
IS BIT OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS FOR THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE IS PRETTY DEEP IN ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME QPF PROGGED OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...WILL NOT ALTER THINGS TO
MUCH...MAY START THEM OVER THE PLAINS A BIT LATER ON MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NO HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW...BUT MOUNTAINS
MIGHT NEED SOMETHING. WE`LL SEE. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS
ARE 4-11 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT COOL BACK OFF 11-18 C FROM MONDAY`S. DEPENDING
HOW MUCH IT CLEARS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WE COULD
GET BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS OUT ON THE FOR THAT PERIOD. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH
GET THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN
FAIRLY WEAK WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING...IT ACTUALLY LOOKS PRETTY
DRY ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ALL
FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KDEN THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...IFR NO LONGER EXPECTED BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. BEST CHC OF SNOW LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF DIA NEAR
KAPA AND KBJC WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND THE MORE ELY BY THIS AFTN.
BY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND THEN SLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 011710
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING..I SLOWED THE TIMING
OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY...OVERALL SLGT CHC IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...WITH CHC POPS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AND THEN INCREASE TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA.  SO FAR MOST OF THE
CWA IS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE
WY BORDER WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LARIMER COUNTY
AND NWRN WELD COUNTY. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND 12Z EXCEPT IN THE MTNS.

BY LATER THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MTNS WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOW CHANCES.  BY LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO THE
MTNS.  SATELLITE DOES SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER ARIZONA SO IT APPEARS
THAT THIS MOISTURE IS REAL.  THUS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW
ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE
GOING TO EVOLVE.  THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE SRN
FOOTHILLS AND AFFECTING SRN AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY HOURS.  THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS OVER SRN AREAS OF CWA WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH. AS FOR
HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS N THE 20S OVER NERN CO EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR NERN CORNER WHERE READINGS MAY RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.

OVERNIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL INTENSIFY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
MTNS.  PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT IN ZN 31 AND PORTIONS OF ZN 33 ALTHOUGH MID
LVL TEMPS ARE WARMING QUITE A BIT WHICH COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.  OVER
NERN CO THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SSE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
STG DOWNSLOPING COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH SHOULD DECREASE
PCPN CHANCES FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE.  CLOSER TO THE WY
BORDER THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE MORE SELY SO COULD STILL SEE A CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROGGED SPEEDS ARE IN THE 130 TO
160 KNOT RANGE AT JET LEVEL. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
COLORADO. THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE CWA MONDAY...BUT IT BECOMES STRONGER BY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF UPWARD ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
MONDAY EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE MOVES IN SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AT DAWN. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE PROGGED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE
IS BIT OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS FOR THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE IS PRETTY DEEP IN ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME QPF PROGGED OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...WILL NOT ALTER THINGS TO
MUCH...MAY START THEM OVER THE PLAINS A BIT LATER ON MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NO HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW...BUT MOUNTAINS
MIGHT NEED SOMETHING. WE`LL SEE. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS
ARE 4-11 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT COOL BACK OFF 11-18 C FROM MONDAY`S. DEPENDING
HOW MUCH IT CLEARS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WE COULD
GET BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS OUT ON THE FOR THAT PERIOD. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH
GET THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN
FAIRLY WEAK WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING...IT ACTUALLY LOOKS PRETTY
DRY ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ALL
FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KDEN THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...IFR NO LONGER EXPECTED BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. BEST CHC OF SNOW LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF DIA NEAR
KAPA AND KBJC WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND THE MORE ELY BY THIS AFTN.
BY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND THEN SLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011710
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING..I SLOWED THE TIMING
OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY...OVERALL SLGT CHC IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...WITH CHC POPS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AND THEN INCREASE TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA.  SO FAR MOST OF THE
CWA IS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE
WY BORDER WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LARIMER COUNTY
AND NWRN WELD COUNTY. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND 12Z EXCEPT IN THE MTNS.

BY LATER THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MTNS WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOW CHANCES.  BY LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO THE
MTNS.  SATELLITE DOES SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER ARIZONA SO IT APPEARS
THAT THIS MOISTURE IS REAL.  THUS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW
ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE
GOING TO EVOLVE.  THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE SRN
FOOTHILLS AND AFFECTING SRN AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY HOURS.  THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS OVER SRN AREAS OF CWA WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH. AS FOR
HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS N THE 20S OVER NERN CO EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR NERN CORNER WHERE READINGS MAY RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.

OVERNIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL INTENSIFY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
MTNS.  PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT IN ZN 31 AND PORTIONS OF ZN 33 ALTHOUGH MID
LVL TEMPS ARE WARMING QUITE A BIT WHICH COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.  OVER
NERN CO THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SSE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
STG DOWNSLOPING COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH SHOULD DECREASE
PCPN CHANCES FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE.  CLOSER TO THE WY
BORDER THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE MORE SELY SO COULD STILL SEE A CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROGGED SPEEDS ARE IN THE 130 TO
160 KNOT RANGE AT JET LEVEL. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
COLORADO. THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE CWA MONDAY...BUT IT BECOMES STRONGER BY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF UPWARD ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
MONDAY EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE MOVES IN SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AT DAWN. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE PROGGED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE
IS BIT OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS FOR THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE IS PRETTY DEEP IN ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME QPF PROGGED OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...WILL NOT ALTER THINGS TO
MUCH...MAY START THEM OVER THE PLAINS A BIT LATER ON MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NO HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW...BUT MOUNTAINS
MIGHT NEED SOMETHING. WE`LL SEE. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS
ARE 4-11 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT COOL BACK OFF 11-18 C FROM MONDAY`S. DEPENDING
HOW MUCH IT CLEARS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WE COULD
GET BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS OUT ON THE FOR THAT PERIOD. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH
GET THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN
FAIRLY WEAK WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING...IT ACTUALLY LOOKS PRETTY
DRY ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ALL
FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KDEN THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...IFR NO LONGER EXPECTED BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. BEST CHC OF SNOW LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF DIA NEAR
KAPA AND KBJC WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND THE MORE ELY BY THIS AFTN.
BY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND THEN SLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011710
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING..I SLOWED THE TIMING
OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY...OVERALL SLGT CHC IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...WITH CHC POPS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AND THEN INCREASE TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA.  SO FAR MOST OF THE
CWA IS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE
WY BORDER WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LARIMER COUNTY
AND NWRN WELD COUNTY. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND 12Z EXCEPT IN THE MTNS.

BY LATER THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MTNS WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOW CHANCES.  BY LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO THE
MTNS.  SATELLITE DOES SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER ARIZONA SO IT APPEARS
THAT THIS MOISTURE IS REAL.  THUS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW
ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE
GOING TO EVOLVE.  THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE SRN
FOOTHILLS AND AFFECTING SRN AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY HOURS.  THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS OVER SRN AREAS OF CWA WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH. AS FOR
HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS N THE 20S OVER NERN CO EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR NERN CORNER WHERE READINGS MAY RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.

OVERNIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL INTENSIFY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
MTNS.  PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT IN ZN 31 AND PORTIONS OF ZN 33 ALTHOUGH MID
LVL TEMPS ARE WARMING QUITE A BIT WHICH COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.  OVER
NERN CO THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SSE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
STG DOWNSLOPING COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH SHOULD DECREASE
PCPN CHANCES FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE.  CLOSER TO THE WY
BORDER THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE MORE SELY SO COULD STILL SEE A CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROGGED SPEEDS ARE IN THE 130 TO
160 KNOT RANGE AT JET LEVEL. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
COLORADO. THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE CWA MONDAY...BUT IT BECOMES STRONGER BY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF UPWARD ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
MONDAY EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE MOVES IN SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AT DAWN. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE PROGGED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE
IS BIT OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS FOR THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE IS PRETTY DEEP IN ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME QPF PROGGED OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...WILL NOT ALTER THINGS TO
MUCH...MAY START THEM OVER THE PLAINS A BIT LATER ON MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NO HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW...BUT MOUNTAINS
MIGHT NEED SOMETHING. WE`LL SEE. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS
ARE 4-11 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT COOL BACK OFF 11-18 C FROM MONDAY`S. DEPENDING
HOW MUCH IT CLEARS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WE COULD
GET BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS OUT ON THE FOR THAT PERIOD. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH
GET THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN
FAIRLY WEAK WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING...IT ACTUALLY LOOKS PRETTY
DRY ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ALL
FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KDEN THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...IFR NO LONGER EXPECTED BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. BEST CHC OF SNOW LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF DIA NEAR
KAPA AND KBJC WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND THE MORE ELY BY THIS AFTN.
BY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND THEN SLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011708
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1008 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES. ALSO...RELATIVELY
NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONGER
SNOWFALL. AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011708
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1008 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES. ALSO...RELATIVELY
NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONGER
SNOWFALL. AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011708
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1008 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES. ALSO...RELATIVELY
NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONGER
SNOWFALL. AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011708
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1008 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

I AM AT THE MERCY OF THE SHORT TERM ATTM AND WILL BE USING
SATELLITE AND RADAR AND SURFACE OBS FOR TRENDS IN THIS COMPLICATED
STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME OF OUR CURRENT FORECASTS COMPARED TO
REAL TIME AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS SOME OVER-HAULING IS NECESSARY.
THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS THE FOCUS JUST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
LARGE SCALE SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER WARM
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
PRODUCES AS MUCH IF NOT MORE SNOW THAN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
METEOROLOGY IS FUN IF NOT HUMBLING OFTEN. SO CHALLENGE TODAY IS
SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL. 300K THETA LEVELS ARE
SHOWING THE GOOD MOISTURE PUSH ONGOING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ATTM.
PWATS OVER HALF OF AN INCH AT ABQ OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FGZ
IS 0.44 NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS COMING OUR WAY AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOOKS
PROMISING. WHAT CONCERNS ME IS SNOW LEVEL...SNOW LEVEL...SNOW
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW UP HIGH AND EXPECT
WHAT HAS BEEN 14:1 OR SO SNOW RATIOS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO LOWER
CLOSER TO 11:1. SO MORE MOISTURE MAY MEAN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SECOND...PRECIP TYPE...MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH DEW
POINTS OVER FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. RAIN IS MORE LIKELY FAR
SOUTH AND MAY MIX AS HIGH AS 6500 OR SO FEET TODAY. SREF PLUMES
SUGGEST RAIN IS THE MORE LIKELY METEOR AT CEZ AND DRO THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS STORM SO
FAR...INSTABILITY. IT IS THERE NOW AND INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER-RIDES SO MANY FORECASTS AS IT COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS BACK
DOWN WITH INTENSE RATES TO BOOT. FORT LEWIS CAMS SHOW BIG FAT
FLAKES RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION. MODELS ALL AGREE ON AFTERNOON PUSH
IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH...SO HAVE TRENDED
CURRENT FORECAST THAT WAY AND HANG ON FOR THE RIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES. ALSO...RELATIVELY
NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONGER
SNOWFALL. AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011310
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
610 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES. ALSO...RELATIVELY
NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONGER
SNOWFALL. AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011310
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
610 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES. ALSO...RELATIVELY
NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONGER
SNOWFALL. AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011310
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
610 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES. ALSO...RELATIVELY
NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONGER
SNOWFALL. AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011310
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
610 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHED IN THE MONTROSE VICINITY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
YIELD LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAVAPUTS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS ALONG
THE JET STREAK AXIS WITH A WEAK TROUGHY FEATURE AT 700MB. THE ULJ
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
REALLY ENHANCE ON MONDAY WITH A 140 TO 150 KT JET STREAK ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKING QUITE
EXCITING AS CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE KGJX RADAR REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE JOINED BY A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CURRENT
HAZARDS AND UPGRADED WINTER WX WATCHES TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO STARTING
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN OUT OF THE
WARNING WITH FORECAST DATA ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES FOR VERNAL. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH OROGRAPHIC
SHADOWING BEING SUGGESTED ON A LOT OF THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA VALLEY. A RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
IN CORTEZ TODAY AND POTENTIALLY DURANGO AS WELL AS H7 TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALL THE WAY TO -1.5C.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER
EASTERN UTAH AS THE 140 KT JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL 4+ G/KG MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CO AND UT STATE LINE WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTH THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT CRAIG. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 06Z. THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
AND SECOND SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO PUSH MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
PRODUCTS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY...WITH THE MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUING 16Z TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION
PUSHING EAST THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS PROJECTED TO GROW NORTH
AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED
BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW. PRECIP
WILL FOCUS MORE IN THE NORTH AND ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...THEN
FRI AND SAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF W. CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES. ALSO...RELATIVELY
NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONGER
SNOWFALL. AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOWFALL
AND FOG WILL PREVAIL AT KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KDRO...WITH OCNL MVFR
AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ001-002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




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