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000
FXUS65 KGJT 020635
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE ENHANCING CONVECTION. SHEAR PROFILE IS VERY
WEAK AND THEREFORE STORM CELLS WILL BE PULSING UP AND DOWN. THE
AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST (PWAT OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT STORM CHARACTER IS A MIXED BAG. POPULATED DESERT
VALLEY SPOTS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 6000 FEET OR EVEN
HIGHER...MAY GET HEAVY SHOWERS THAT LAST FOR 10-20 MINUTES OR SO.
BUT WETTING RAINS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE DISTURBANCE.

DRIER STABLE AIR FOLLOWS THE DISTURBANCE AND EXPECT STORMS/SHOWERS
TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF. NOT SO FAST OVER
SW COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER TO
MIDNIGHT OR PERHAPS LAST A BIT LONGER...EVEN SPILLING INTO SERN
UTAH. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON WHERE LATE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TEND TO BE LOCATED FROM SAN JUAN COUNTY
UTAH...MONTEZUMA AND LA PLATA COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUD LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
WEST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED DUE TO MOISTURE
DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 0.75 INCH BY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BY NEARLY A HALF INCH PWAT DIFFERENCE...SO NOT FEELING
CONFIDENT ON THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AS PREVIOUS MODELS
TRIED TO INDICATE.

MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST DRIFTS BACK EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
CLASSIC LONGER TERM EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO MONSOON SIGNAL PROGGED
YET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING TOO FAR
WEST TO REALLY STREAM SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. MONDAY IS THE ONE EXCEPTION
TO MONSOONAL STYLE MOISTURE - WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH AND EVEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER
IN EASTERN UTAH FOR THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN THE H7 RIDGE TEMPORARILY AND BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN DECREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AGAIN AS THE WIND REGIME KEEPS MOST
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS DO
FREQUENTLY TRY TO DECREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TOO RAPIDLY AFTER A
SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE WEAK MONSOONAL SIGNAL COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED IN
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MAX TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK THANKS TO ENHANCED CLOUD CLOUD AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 07Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR SERN UT...NEAR CNY AND
FURTHER SOUTH. CONCERNS WILL BE KTEX AND KDRO THIS MORNING FOR A
QUICK SHOWER...MAYBE RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT STILL EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THURSDAY
PROPER...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
DIVIDE AND ALSO THE SAN JUANS SO KDRO AND KTEX WILL BE TAF SITES
THAT MAY BE IMPACTED WITH LOW VIS/CIGS FROM 18Z ONWARDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 020635
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE ENHANCING CONVECTION. SHEAR PROFILE IS VERY
WEAK AND THEREFORE STORM CELLS WILL BE PULSING UP AND DOWN. THE
AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST (PWAT OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT STORM CHARACTER IS A MIXED BAG. POPULATED DESERT
VALLEY SPOTS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 6000 FEET OR EVEN
HIGHER...MAY GET HEAVY SHOWERS THAT LAST FOR 10-20 MINUTES OR SO.
BUT WETTING RAINS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE DISTURBANCE.

DRIER STABLE AIR FOLLOWS THE DISTURBANCE AND EXPECT STORMS/SHOWERS
TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF. NOT SO FAST OVER
SW COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER TO
MIDNIGHT OR PERHAPS LAST A BIT LONGER...EVEN SPILLING INTO SERN
UTAH. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON WHERE LATE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TEND TO BE LOCATED FROM SAN JUAN COUNTY
UTAH...MONTEZUMA AND LA PLATA COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUD LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
WEST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED DUE TO MOISTURE
DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 0.75 INCH BY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BY NEARLY A HALF INCH PWAT DIFFERENCE...SO NOT FEELING
CONFIDENT ON THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AS PREVIOUS MODELS
TRIED TO INDICATE.

MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST DRIFTS BACK EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
CLASSIC LONGER TERM EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO MONSOON SIGNAL PROGGED
YET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING TOO FAR
WEST TO REALLY STREAM SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. MONDAY IS THE ONE EXCEPTION
TO MONSOONAL STYLE MOISTURE - WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH AND EVEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER
IN EASTERN UTAH FOR THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN THE H7 RIDGE TEMPORARILY AND BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN DECREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AGAIN AS THE WIND REGIME KEEPS MOST
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS DO
FREQUENTLY TRY TO DECREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TOO RAPIDLY AFTER A
SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE WEAK MONSOONAL SIGNAL COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED IN
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MAX TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK THANKS TO ENHANCED CLOUD CLOUD AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 07Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR SERN UT...NEAR CNY AND
FURTHER SOUTH. CONCERNS WILL BE KTEX AND KDRO THIS MORNING FOR A
QUICK SHOWER...MAYBE RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT STILL EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THURSDAY
PROPER...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
DIVIDE AND ALSO THE SAN JUANS SO KDRO AND KTEX WILL BE TAF SITES
THAT MAY BE IMPACTED WITH LOW VIS/CIGS FROM 18Z ONWARDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPUB 020525
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS THIS EVENING

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE A CIG IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES WHICH COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020525
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS THIS EVENING

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE A CIG IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES WHICH COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 020205
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
805 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS THIS EVENING

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...EXPECT MVFR TO INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS FROM  UNTIL 06Z WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
06Z AND UNTIL 18Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020205
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
805 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS THIS EVENING

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...EXPECT MVFR TO INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS FROM  UNTIL 06Z WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
06Z AND UNTIL 18Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 020046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
646 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN EASTERN
COLORADO...HAVE MADE SOME REDUCTION IN POPS BEHIND THAT LINE...BUT
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR RAWLINS
THAT WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...SO SOME AREAS SUCH
AS NORTH PARK...LARIMER COUNTY AND WELD COUNTY MAY SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE GONE FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
LINGER TIL MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER. HAVE MADE SOME
REDUCTION IN POPS THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP...NOT A SURE THING SO WILL LEAVE FOR MIDNIGHT
SHIFT TO PUT IN IF NEEDED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL BE
IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER FLIRT WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT AREA AIRPORTS
THIS EVENING...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER NOW THROUGH 04Z. IF A THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTS THROUGH THE
METRO AREA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH.
THE THREAT WILL BE GONE BY 06Z...THEN LATER TONIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 020046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
646 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN EASTERN
COLORADO...HAVE MADE SOME REDUCTION IN POPS BEHIND THAT LINE...BUT
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR RAWLINS
THAT WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...SO SOME AREAS SUCH
AS NORTH PARK...LARIMER COUNTY AND WELD COUNTY MAY SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE GONE FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
LINGER TIL MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER. HAVE MADE SOME
REDUCTION IN POPS THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP...NOT A SURE THING SO WILL LEAVE FOR MIDNIGHT
SHIFT TO PUT IN IF NEEDED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL BE
IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER FLIRT WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT AREA AIRPORTS
THIS EVENING...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER NOW THROUGH 04Z. IF A THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTS THROUGH THE
METRO AREA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH.
THE THREAT WILL BE GONE BY 06Z...THEN LATER TONIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
646 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN EASTERN
COLORADO...HAVE MADE SOME REDUCTION IN POPS BEHIND THAT LINE...BUT
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR RAWLINS
THAT WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...SO SOME AREAS SUCH
AS NORTH PARK...LARIMER COUNTY AND WELD COUNTY MAY SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE GONE FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
LINGER TIL MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER. HAVE MADE SOME
REDUCTION IN POPS THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP...NOT A SURE THING SO WILL LEAVE FOR MIDNIGHT
SHIFT TO PUT IN IF NEEDED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL BE
IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER FLIRT WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT AREA AIRPORTS
THIS EVENING...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER NOW THROUGH 04Z. IF A THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTS THROUGH THE
METRO AREA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH.
THE THREAT WILL BE GONE BY 06Z...THEN LATER TONIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
646 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN EASTERN
COLORADO...HAVE MADE SOME REDUCTION IN POPS BEHIND THAT LINE...BUT
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR RAWLINS
THAT WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...SO SOME AREAS SUCH
AS NORTH PARK...LARIMER COUNTY AND WELD COUNTY MAY SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE GONE FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
LINGER TIL MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER. HAVE MADE SOME
REDUCTION IN POPS THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP...NOT A SURE THING SO WILL LEAVE FOR MIDNIGHT
SHIFT TO PUT IN IF NEEDED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL BE
IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER FLIRT WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT AREA AIRPORTS
THIS EVENING...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER NOW THROUGH 04Z. IF A THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTS THROUGH THE
METRO AREA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH.
THE THREAT WILL BE GONE BY 06Z...THEN LATER TONIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KGJT 012249
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE ENHANCING CONVECTION. SHEAR PROFILE IS VERY
WEAK AND THEREFORE STORM CELLS WILL BE PULSING UP AND DOWN. THE
AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST (PWAT OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT STORM CHARACTER IS A MIXED BAG. POPULATED DESERT
VALLEY SPOTS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 6000 FEET OR EVEN
HIGHER...MAY GET HEAVY SHOWERS THAT LAST FOR 10-20 MINUTES OR SO.
BUT WETTING RAINS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE DISTURBANCE.

DRIER STABLE AIR FOLLOWS THE DISTURBANCE AND EXPECT STORMS/SHOWERS
TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF. NOT SO FAST OVER
SW COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER TO
MIDNIGHT OR PERHAPS LAST A BIT LONGER...EVEN SPILLING INTO SERN
UTAH. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON WHERE LATE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TEND TO BE LOCATED FROM SAN JUAN COUNTY
UTAH...MONTEZUMA AND LA PLATA COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUD LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
WEST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED DUE TO MOISTURE
DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 0.75 INCH BY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BY NEARLY A HALF INCH PWAT DIFFERENCE...SO NOT FEELING
CONFIDENT ON THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AS PREVIOUS MODELS
TRIED TO INDICATE.

MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST DRIFTS BACK EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
CLASSIC LONGER TERM EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO MONSOON SIGNAL PROGGED
YET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING TOO FAR
WEST TO REALLY STREAM SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. MONDAY IS THE ONE EXCEPTION
TO MONSOONAL STYLE MOISTURE - WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH AND EVEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER
IN EASTERN UTAH FOR THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN THE H7 RIDGE TEMPORARILY AND BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN DECREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AGAIN AS THE WIND REGIME KEEPS MOST
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS DO
FREQUENTLY TRY TO DECREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TOO RAPIDLY AFTER A
SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE WEAK MONSOONAL SIGNAL COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED IN
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MAX TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK THANKS TO ENHANCED CLOUD CLOUD AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT SUBDUED COMPARED TO
EXPECTATIONS 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS ARE SECURE
AT THE AREA FORECAST TERMINALS...A TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KDRO COULD BE THE TERMINAL MOST IMPACTED
THROUGH 02/03Z AS STORMS DRIFT SOUTHWARD OFF THE SAN JUAN
FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON LOCATION
OR TIMING SO TAF FORECASTS WILL LEAN TOWARD NO WEATHER IMPACTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS65 KBOU 012242 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL BE
IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WITH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT
ACROSS THE THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER
AN EVENING ROUND OF SHOWERS...THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHAT LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KPUB 012147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
347 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...EXPECT MVFR TO INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS FROM  UNTIL 06Z WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
06Z AND UNTIL 18Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 012147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
347 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WHILE
INTENSE HEATING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW HELPED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MIDDAY TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STRONG...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT HAIL. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F FOR THE E PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS PUSH TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH A VERY
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT
WILL PUSH IN MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESPONDS WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OVER THE PALMER DVD IN THE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN DIURNAL MT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS THE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS TO THE SE THEY WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE JUICIER AIR AND GREATER SHEAR...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN
AREAS WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVE LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED WITH
PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND DETERMINING
WHERE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UTAH/NEVADA REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH THEN SHIFTING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NEXT STRONGER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH THE DEEPEST
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTRUSIONS PROJECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE(STRONGER) SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALSO...ELEVATED
SHEARS/CAPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER(OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE)...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME QUITE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL BE NOTED OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOCALLY RAIN WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MAY BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHILE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WARMEST MAXIMUM READINGS EXPECTED
DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...EXPECT MVFR TO INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS FROM  UNTIL 06Z WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
06Z AND UNTIL 18Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOU 012134
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 15000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL
BE IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WITH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT
ACROSS THE THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER
AN EVENING ROUND OF SHOWERS...THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHAT LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012134
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 15000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL
BE IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WITH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT
ACROSS THE THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER
AN EVENING ROUND OF SHOWERS...THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHAT LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012134
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 15000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL
BE IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WITH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT
ACROSS THE THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER
AN EVENING ROUND OF SHOWERS...THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHAT LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012134
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 15000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL
BE IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WITH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT
ACROSS THE THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER
AN EVENING ROUND OF SHOWERS...THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHAT LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012134
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 15000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL
BE IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WITH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT
ACROSS THE THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER
AN EVENING ROUND OF SHOWERS...THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHAT LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 012134
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...DRIVING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER
SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...LEADING TO A NEARLY IDENTICAL
SET-UP FOR THURSDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
TODAY. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITSELF
EVIDENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY THE BATCH OF
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
AFTERNOON OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
MOVING ALONG NICELY...AND WE CAN HOPE THAT THE SAME HOLDS FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS OR THE UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES...SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING THAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF A
SEVERE THREAT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY BL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 1000 TO 15000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STILL
BE IN THE 40S WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD DROPPING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CONVECTION PROBABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO WEEKEND HIKERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING THREATS.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
USHER IN MOISTURE AND TAKES ON A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC HAVE HIGH QPF LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WITH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT
ACROSS THE THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER
AN EVENING ROUND OF SHOWERS...THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHAT LOCATIONS RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 012100
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE ENHANCING CONVECTION. SHEAR PROFILE IS VERY
WEAK AND THEREFORE STORM CELLS WILL BE PULSING UP AND DOWN. THE
AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST (PWAT OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT STORM CHARACTER IS A MIXED BAG. POPULATED DESERT
VALLEY SPOTS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 6000 FEET OR EVEN
HIGHER...MAY GET HEAVY SHOWERS THAT LAST FOR 10-20 MINUTES OR SO.
BUT WETTING RAINS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE DISTURBANCE.

DRIER STABLE AIR FOLLOWS THE DISTURBANCE AND EXPECT STORMS/SHOWERS
TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF. NOT SO FAST OVER
SW COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER TO
MIDNIGHT OR PERHAPS LAST A BIT LONGER...EVEN SPILLING INTO SERN
UTAH. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON WHERE LATE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TEND TO BE LOCATED FROM SAN JUAN COUNTY
UTAH...MONTEZUMA AND LA PLATA COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUD LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
WEST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED DUE TO MOISTURE
DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 0.75 INCH BY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BY NEARLY A HALF INCH PWAT DIFFERENCE...SO NOT FEELING
CONFIDENT ON THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AS PREVIOUS MODELS
TRIED TO INDICATE.

MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST DRIFTS BACK EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
CLASSIC LONGER TERM EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO MONSOON SIGNAL PROGGED
YET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING TOO FAR
WEST TO REALLY STREAM SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. MONDAY IS THE ONE EXCEPTION
TO MONSOONAL STYLE MOISTURE - WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH AND EVEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER
IN EASTERN UTAH FOR THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN THE H7 RIDGE TEMPORARILY AND BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN DECREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AGAIN AS THE WIND REGIME KEEPS MOST
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS DO
FREQUENTLY TRY TO DECREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TOO RAPIDLY AFTER A
SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE WEAK MONSOONAL SIGNAL COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED IN
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MAX TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK THANKS TO ENHANCED CLOUD CLOUD AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS (MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011755
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN LIGHT NW FLOW HAS PRODUCED A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. SHEAR PROFILE IS WEAK AND WILL BE DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT TO
SUSTAIN DEEP ONGOING CELLS. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME STORMS WILL
ROLL OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...CELLS WILL WEAKEN OR COLLAPSE AS THEY MOVE INTO VALLEY
AREAS. SO ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND VARIETY FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDING (PWATS OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT THESE WILL BE MOSTLY RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (MOSTLY ABOVE 6K-7K FEET).

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MANY STORMS WILL BE ENDING
LATE IN THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW COLORADO CORNER
WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS (MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011755
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN LIGHT NW FLOW HAS PRODUCED A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. SHEAR PROFILE IS WEAK AND WILL BE DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT TO
SUSTAIN DEEP ONGOING CELLS. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME STORMS WILL
ROLL OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...CELLS WILL WEAKEN OR COLLAPSE AS THEY MOVE INTO VALLEY
AREAS. SO ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND VARIETY FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDING (PWATS OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT THESE WILL BE MOSTLY RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (MOSTLY ABOVE 6K-7K FEET).

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MANY STORMS WILL BE ENDING
LATE IN THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW COLORADO CORNER
WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS (MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011755
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN LIGHT NW FLOW HAS PRODUCED A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. SHEAR PROFILE IS WEAK AND WILL BE DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT TO
SUSTAIN DEEP ONGOING CELLS. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME STORMS WILL
ROLL OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...CELLS WILL WEAKEN OR COLLAPSE AS THEY MOVE INTO VALLEY
AREAS. SO ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND VARIETY FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDING (PWATS OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT THESE WILL BE MOSTLY RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (MOSTLY ABOVE 6K-7K FEET).

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MANY STORMS WILL BE ENDING
LATE IN THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW COLORADO CORNER
WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS (MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011755
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN LIGHT NW FLOW HAS PRODUCED A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. SHEAR PROFILE IS WEAK AND WILL BE DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT TO
SUSTAIN DEEP ONGOING CELLS. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME STORMS WILL
ROLL OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...CELLS WILL WEAKEN OR COLLAPSE AS THEY MOVE INTO VALLEY
AREAS. SO ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND VARIETY FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDING (PWATS OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT THESE WILL BE MOSTLY RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (MOSTLY ABOVE 6K-7K FEET).

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MANY STORMS WILL BE ENDING
LATE IN THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW COLORADO CORNER
WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS (MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011736
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS WEAK COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO THE NM BORDER
AS OF 0930Z...WHILE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY INTO NM. FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS. WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION ALL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A RETURN TO MORE NWLY WINDS ALOFT VERSUS
THE N-NE FLOW WE`VE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AS 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS 30 KTS OR LESS...THOUGH WITH
CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WE`LL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE
STORMS PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY
BE A BIGGER THREAT...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMBING TO ABOVE AN INCH ALONG I- 25 LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HINT
AT CONVECTION CONGEALING INTO SMALL MCS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG I-25 TOWARD THE NM BORDER
BY 06Z...THEN DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LOWEST NEAR THE KS
BORDER. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGF COOLER THAN TUE
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/UPSLOPE FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS...THOUGH A FEW
MID/UPPER 90S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATE TO ARRIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASES NEXT WEEK...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA NEXT WEEK...AS THE MONSOON
KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR ACROSS CO.

FIRST...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME POTENTIAL SVR WX THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI. LATEST NAM IS STILL SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
AND 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THU
AFTERNOON...IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PUSH THAT MOVES THROUGH MID
DAY. AFTER MORNING LOWER CLOUD DECKS CLEAR...HEATING AND THE
ENSUING UPSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTS THU AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING PRETTY WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WITH THIS EVENT
OVER MUCH OF SE CO. INITIAL CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE STRONG TO SVR SIDE...WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE IF AN ISOLD
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR
A COUPLE OF MCS OVER THE SERN PLAINS THU EVE...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVE.

FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...AS ANTECEDENT MOIST BL WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES...WHILE LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A BIT
LESS. SO THERE WILL BE SOME SVR THREAT...BUT PROBABLY A GREATER
THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE LESS STORMY AND
WARMER...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN MTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM THE 4 CORNERS
REGION AND THROUGH NEW MEXICO.

THEN...EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO NRN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO INCREASED SRLY FLOW DRAWING MOISTURE UP
FROM MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICS. THIS MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE ECMWF AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...IN PARTICULAR...HAVE VERY HIGH QPF OVER OUR
AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS EVENT IS STILL
ALMOST A WEEK AWAY...SO DETAILS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...BUT DEFINITELY
WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THIS VERY WET
PATTERN SIGNAL HOLDS IN FUTURE PROGS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z...THEN MOVING OFF ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
BEGINNING AT 20Z. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z. FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS...EXPECT MVFR TO INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS FROM 20Z-06Z
WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY UNDER
STRONGER STORMS. AFTER 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011649
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1049 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS REMAIN AROUND THE ONE
INCH MARK WITH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WHICH WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALOFT...MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO THE LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS...ON THEIR WAY TO NEAR THE
90 DEGREE MARK. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED WARMING AT LOW LEVELS
AND MODEST COOLING AROUND 500 MB. AS THE SURFACE WARMS...THERE
SHOULD BE LESS OF A CAPPING INVERSION THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN PROPAGATE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. WITH
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND ONLY 20-25 KNOTS OF
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVING AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL OF THESE THINGS
WERE COVERED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. THE AIRMASS
HAS MOISTENED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY UP TO 1 INCH
ON THE PLAINS...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH VALUES OF 1.1 TO 1.25 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. THETA-E
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN/NEXT TO THE FRONT RANGE AS LOW LEVEL
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS...SO HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST ONTO THE NEARBY PLAINS INCLUDING
THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL NOT ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE MET.
HAVE REFINED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST.

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT CAPES APPEAR TO
BE LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SO MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND STRONGER STORMS TODAY. STORMS WILL
BE MOVING NEAR 20 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
ANY FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BURN SCARS. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN 20 TO 30
MINUTES.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS
AIRMASS GETS WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND FRONTAL
PUSH CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER NEVADA WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE FAIRLY STABLE INITIALLY...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB OVER 2000 J/KG AFTER 21Z WITH GOOD
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR PROFILE
MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER AND THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT DRIER WHICH MAY
LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE HOTTER WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
ANOTHER SURGE IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WL BE MORE WESTERLY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY. AS IT
DOES...THE OVERALL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE MONSOON WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND INTO
COLORADO. A STRONGER SURGE IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE THE TSTM COVERAGE IN SPITE OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

IDEAS IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS STILL SEEM TO APPLY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS IN THE
REGION. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A REPEAT SCENARIO OF THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WE SEE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011649
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1049 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS REMAIN AROUND THE ONE
INCH MARK WITH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WHICH WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALOFT...MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO THE LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS...ON THEIR WAY TO NEAR THE
90 DEGREE MARK. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED WARMING AT LOW LEVELS
AND MODEST COOLING AROUND 500 MB. AS THE SURFACE WARMS...THERE
SHOULD BE LESS OF A CAPPING INVERSION THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN PROPAGATE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. WITH
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND ONLY 20-25 KNOTS OF
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVING AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL OF THESE THINGS
WERE COVERED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. THE AIRMASS
HAS MOISTENED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY UP TO 1 INCH
ON THE PLAINS...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH VALUES OF 1.1 TO 1.25 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. THETA-E
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN/NEXT TO THE FRONT RANGE AS LOW LEVEL
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS...SO HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST ONTO THE NEARBY PLAINS INCLUDING
THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL NOT ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE MET.
HAVE REFINED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST.

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT CAPES APPEAR TO
BE LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SO MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND STRONGER STORMS TODAY. STORMS WILL
BE MOVING NEAR 20 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
ANY FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BURN SCARS. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN 20 TO 30
MINUTES.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS
AIRMASS GETS WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND FRONTAL
PUSH CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER NEVADA WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE FAIRLY STABLE INITIALLY...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB OVER 2000 J/KG AFTER 21Z WITH GOOD
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR PROFILE
MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER AND THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT DRIER WHICH MAY
LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE HOTTER WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
ANOTHER SURGE IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WL BE MORE WESTERLY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY. AS IT
DOES...THE OVERALL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE MONSOON WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND INTO
COLORADO. A STRONGER SURGE IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE THE TSTM COVERAGE IN SPITE OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

IDEAS IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS STILL SEEM TO APPLY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS IN THE
REGION. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A REPEAT SCENARIO OF THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WE SEE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011037
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
437 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MORE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...A FEW TAFS SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NW TO SE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG TO KRIL
TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. FROM ABOUT
20Z TO 05Z KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND KPSO
HAVING ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF EACH TAF SITE AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011037
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
437 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MORE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...A FEW TAFS SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NW TO SE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG TO KRIL
TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. FROM ABOUT
20Z TO 05Z KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND KPSO
HAVING ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF EACH TAF SITE AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS WEAK COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO THE NM BORDER
AS OF 0930Z...WHILE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY INTO NM. FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS. WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION ALL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A RETURN TO MORE NWLY WINDS ALOFT VERSUS
THE N-NE FLOW WE`VE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AS 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS 30 KTS OR LESS...THOUGH WITH
CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WE`LL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE
STORMS PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY
BE A BIGGER THREAT...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMBING TO ABOVE AN INCH ALONG I- 25 LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HINT
AT CONVECTION CONGEALING INTO SMALL MCS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG I-25 TOWARD THE NM BORDER
BY 06Z...THEN DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LOWEST NEAR THE KS
BORDER. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGF COOLER THAN TUE
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/UPSLOPE FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS...THOUGH A FEW
MID/UPPER 90S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATE TO ARRIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASES NEXT WEEK...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA NEXT WEEK...AS THE MONSOON
KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR ACROSS CO.

FIRST...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME POTENTIAL SVR WX THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI. LATEST NAM IS STILL SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
AND 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THU
AFTERNOON...IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PUSH THAT MOVES THROUGH MID
DAY. AFTER MORNING LOWER CLOUD DECKS CLEAR...HEATING AND THE
ENSUING UPSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTS THU AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING PRETTY WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WITH THIS EVENT
OVER MUCH OF SE CO. INITIAL CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE STRONG TO SVR SIDE...WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE IF AN ISOLD
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR
A COUPLE OF MCS OVER THE SERN PLAINS THU EVE...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVE.

FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...AS ANTECEDENT MOIST BL WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES...WHILE LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A BIT
LESS. SO THERE WILL BE SOME SVR THREAT...BUT PROBABLY A GREATER
THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE LESS STORMY AND
WARMER...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN MTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM THE 4 CORNERS
REGION AND THROUGH NEW MEXICO.

THEN...EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO NRN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO INCREASED SRLY FLOW DRAWING MOISTURE UP
FROM MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICS. THIS MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE ECMWF AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...IN PARTICULAR...HAVE VERY HIGH QPF OVER OUR
AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS EVENT IS STILL
ALMOST A WEEK AWAY...SO DETAILS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...BUT DEFINITELY
WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THIS VERY WET
PATTERN SIGNAL HOLDS IN FUTURE PROGS. ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH TSRA DEVELOPING FAIRLY
EARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z. STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...REACHING TAF SITES 20Z-22Z. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM
THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KCOS AND WILL
KEEP A PREVAILING MENTION IN THE TAF FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH VCTS AT KPUB AND KALS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 03Z-06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS WEAK COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO THE NM BORDER
AS OF 0930Z...WHILE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY INTO NM. FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS. WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION ALL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A RETURN TO MORE NWLY WINDS ALOFT VERSUS
THE N-NE FLOW WE`VE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AS 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS 30 KTS OR LESS...THOUGH WITH
CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WE`LL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE
STORMS PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY
BE A BIGGER THREAT...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMBING TO ABOVE AN INCH ALONG I- 25 LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HINT
AT CONVECTION CONGEALING INTO SMALL MCS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG I-25 TOWARD THE NM BORDER
BY 06Z...THEN DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LOWEST NEAR THE KS
BORDER. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGF COOLER THAN TUE
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/UPSLOPE FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS...THOUGH A FEW
MID/UPPER 90S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATE TO ARRIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASES NEXT WEEK...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA NEXT WEEK...AS THE MONSOON
KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR ACROSS CO.

FIRST...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME POTENTIAL SVR WX THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI. LATEST NAM IS STILL SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
AND 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THU
AFTERNOON...IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PUSH THAT MOVES THROUGH MID
DAY. AFTER MORNING LOWER CLOUD DECKS CLEAR...HEATING AND THE
ENSUING UPSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTS THU AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING PRETTY WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WITH THIS EVENT
OVER MUCH OF SE CO. INITIAL CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE STRONG TO SVR SIDE...WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE IF AN ISOLD
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR
A COUPLE OF MCS OVER THE SERN PLAINS THU EVE...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVE.

FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...AS ANTECEDENT MOIST BL WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES...WHILE LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A BIT
LESS. SO THERE WILL BE SOME SVR THREAT...BUT PROBABLY A GREATER
THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE LESS STORMY AND
WARMER...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN MTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM THE 4 CORNERS
REGION AND THROUGH NEW MEXICO.

THEN...EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO NRN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO INCREASED SRLY FLOW DRAWING MOISTURE UP
FROM MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICS. THIS MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE ECMWF AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...IN PARTICULAR...HAVE VERY HIGH QPF OVER OUR
AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS EVENT IS STILL
ALMOST A WEEK AWAY...SO DETAILS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...BUT DEFINITELY
WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THIS VERY WET
PATTERN SIGNAL HOLDS IN FUTURE PROGS. ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH TSRA DEVELOPING FAIRLY
EARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z. STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...REACHING TAF SITES 20Z-22Z. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM
THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KCOS AND WILL
KEEP A PREVAILING MENTION IN THE TAF FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH VCTS AT KPUB AND KALS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 03Z-06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS WEAK COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO THE NM BORDER
AS OF 0930Z...WHILE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY INTO NM. FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS. WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION ALL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A RETURN TO MORE NWLY WINDS ALOFT VERSUS
THE N-NE FLOW WE`VE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AS 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS 30 KTS OR LESS...THOUGH WITH
CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WE`LL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE
STORMS PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY
BE A BIGGER THREAT...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMBING TO ABOVE AN INCH ALONG I- 25 LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HINT
AT CONVECTION CONGEALING INTO SMALL MCS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG I-25 TOWARD THE NM BORDER
BY 06Z...THEN DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LOWEST NEAR THE KS
BORDER. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGF COOLER THAN TUE
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/UPSLOPE FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS...THOUGH A FEW
MID/UPPER 90S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATE TO ARRIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASES NEXT WEEK...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA NEXT WEEK...AS THE MONSOON
KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR ACROSS CO.

FIRST...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME POTENTIAL SVR WX THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI. LATEST NAM IS STILL SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
AND 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THU
AFTERNOON...IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PUSH THAT MOVES THROUGH MID
DAY. AFTER MORNING LOWER CLOUD DECKS CLEAR...HEATING AND THE
ENSUING UPSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTS THU AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING PRETTY WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WITH THIS EVENT
OVER MUCH OF SE CO. INITIAL CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE STRONG TO SVR SIDE...WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE IF AN ISOLD
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR
A COUPLE OF MCS OVER THE SERN PLAINS THU EVE...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVE.

FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...AS ANTECEDENT MOIST BL WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES...WHILE LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A BIT
LESS. SO THERE WILL BE SOME SVR THREAT...BUT PROBABLY A GREATER
THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE LESS STORMY AND
WARMER...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN MTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM THE 4 CORNERS
REGION AND THROUGH NEW MEXICO.

THEN...EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO NRN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO INCREASED SRLY FLOW DRAWING MOISTURE UP
FROM MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICS. THIS MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE ECMWF AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...IN PARTICULAR...HAVE VERY HIGH QPF OVER OUR
AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS EVENT IS STILL
ALMOST A WEEK AWAY...SO DETAILS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...BUT DEFINITELY
WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THIS VERY WET
PATTERN SIGNAL HOLDS IN FUTURE PROGS. ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH TSRA DEVELOPING FAIRLY
EARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z. STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...REACHING TAF SITES 20Z-22Z. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM
THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KCOS AND WILL
KEEP A PREVAILING MENTION IN THE TAF FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH VCTS AT KPUB AND KALS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 03Z-06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS WEAK COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO THE NM BORDER
AS OF 0930Z...WHILE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY INTO NM. FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS. WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION ALL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A RETURN TO MORE NWLY WINDS ALOFT VERSUS
THE N-NE FLOW WE`VE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AS 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS 30 KTS OR LESS...THOUGH WITH
CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WE`LL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE
STORMS PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY
BE A BIGGER THREAT...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMBING TO ABOVE AN INCH ALONG I- 25 LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HINT
AT CONVECTION CONGEALING INTO SMALL MCS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG I-25 TOWARD THE NM BORDER
BY 06Z...THEN DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS...LOWEST NEAR THE KS
BORDER. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGF COOLER THAN TUE
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/UPSLOPE FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS...THOUGH A FEW
MID/UPPER 90S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATE TO ARRIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASES NEXT WEEK...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA NEXT WEEK...AS THE MONSOON
KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR ACROSS CO.

FIRST...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME POTENTIAL SVR WX THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI. LATEST NAM IS STILL SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
AND 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THU
AFTERNOON...IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PUSH THAT MOVES THROUGH MID
DAY. AFTER MORNING LOWER CLOUD DECKS CLEAR...HEATING AND THE
ENSUING UPSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTS THU AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING PRETTY WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WITH THIS EVENT
OVER MUCH OF SE CO. INITIAL CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE STRONG TO SVR SIDE...WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE IF AN ISOLD
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR
A COUPLE OF MCS OVER THE SERN PLAINS THU EVE...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVE.

FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...AS ANTECEDENT MOIST BL WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES...WHILE LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A BIT
LESS. SO THERE WILL BE SOME SVR THREAT...BUT PROBABLY A GREATER
THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE LESS STORMY AND
WARMER...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN MTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM THE 4 CORNERS
REGION AND THROUGH NEW MEXICO.

THEN...EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO NRN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO INCREASED SRLY FLOW DRAWING MOISTURE UP
FROM MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICS. THIS MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE ECMWF AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...IN PARTICULAR...HAVE VERY HIGH QPF OVER OUR
AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS EVENT IS STILL
ALMOST A WEEK AWAY...SO DETAILS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...BUT DEFINITELY
WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THIS VERY WET
PATTERN SIGNAL HOLDS IN FUTURE PROGS. ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH TSRA DEVELOPING FAIRLY
EARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z. STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...REACHING TAF SITES 20Z-22Z. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM
THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KCOS AND WILL
KEEP A PREVAILING MENTION IN THE TAF FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH VCTS AT KPUB AND KALS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 03Z-06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010946
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
346 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. THE AIRMASS
HAS MOISTENED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY UP TO 1 INCH
ON THE PLAINS...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH VALUES OF 1.1 TO 1.25 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. THETA-E
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN/NEXT TO THE FRONT RANGE AS LOW LEVEL
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS...SO HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST ONTO THE NEARBY PLAINS INCLUDING
THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL NOT ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE MET.
HAVE REFINED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST.

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT CAPES APPEAR TO
BE LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SO MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND STRONGER STORMS TODAY. STORMS WILL
BE MOVING NEAR 20 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
ANY FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BURN SCARS. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN 20 TO 30
MINUTES.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS
AIRMASS GETS WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND FRONTAL
PUSH CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER NEVADA WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE FAIRLY STABLE INITIALLY...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB OVER 2000 J/KG AFTER 21Z WITH GOOD
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR PROFILE
MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER AND THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT DRIER WHICH MAY
LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE HOTTER WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
ANOTHER SURGE IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WL BE MORE WESTERLY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY. AS IT
DOES...THE OVERALL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE MONSOON WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND INTO
COLORADO. A STRONGER SURGE IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE THE TSTM COVERAGE IN SPITE OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR 21Z-03Z TODAY AS
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH STORMS AS THEY WILL PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL. STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 35-40
KNOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010946
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
346 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. THE AIRMASS
HAS MOISTENED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY UP TO 1 INCH
ON THE PLAINS...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH VALUES OF 1.1 TO 1.25 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. THETA-E
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN/NEXT TO THE FRONT RANGE AS LOW LEVEL
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS...SO HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST ONTO THE NEARBY PLAINS INCLUDING
THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL NOT ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE MET.
HAVE REFINED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST.

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT CAPES APPEAR TO
BE LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SO MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND STRONGER STORMS TODAY. STORMS WILL
BE MOVING NEAR 20 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
ANY FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BURN SCARS. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN 20 TO 30
MINUTES.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS
AIRMASS GETS WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND FRONTAL
PUSH CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER NEVADA WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE FAIRLY STABLE INITIALLY...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB OVER 2000 J/KG AFTER 21Z WITH GOOD
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR PROFILE
MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER AND THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT DRIER WHICH MAY
LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE HOTTER WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
ANOTHER SURGE IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WL BE MORE WESTERLY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY. AS IT
DOES...THE OVERALL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE MONSOON WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND INTO
COLORADO. A STRONGER SURGE IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE THE TSTM COVERAGE IN SPITE OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR 21Z-03Z TODAY AS
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH STORMS AS THEY WILL PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL. STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 35-40
KNOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010552
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW AREAS...WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010552
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW AREAS...WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010552
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW AREAS...WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010552
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW AREAS...WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010552
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW AREAS...WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010552
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW AREAS...WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010505
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND
KPSO HAVE ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 010505
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND
KPSO HAVE ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 010505
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND
KPSO HAVE ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010505
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND
KPSO HAVE ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010322
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
922 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ONE MORE BATCH OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT AS MUCH LIGHTNING OR WIND FOR THE
DENVER AREA WITH THIS...THOUGH THE CONVECTION ACROSS SE WYOMING
HAS LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND A NICE WIND SHIFT THAT MAY KEEP THINGS
GOING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BEHIND THIS NEXT BAND THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK CONVECTION
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH PRECIPITATION OR
LIGHTNING...SO MAINLY JUST THE REMNANT CLOUDS COMING OVER FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DID RAISE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND SLOWED DOWN THE DECAYING POPS A LITTLE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED AROUND DENVER THROUGH 06Z BUT IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO VARIABLE WINDS. DIRECTIONS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010322
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
922 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ONE MORE BATCH OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT AS MUCH LIGHTNING OR WIND FOR THE
DENVER AREA WITH THIS...THOUGH THE CONVECTION ACROSS SE WYOMING
HAS LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND A NICE WIND SHIFT THAT MAY KEEP THINGS
GOING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BEHIND THIS NEXT BAND THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK CONVECTION
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH PRECIPITATION OR
LIGHTNING...SO MAINLY JUST THE REMNANT CLOUDS COMING OVER FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DID RAISE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND SLOWED DOWN THE DECAYING POPS A LITTLE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED AROUND DENVER THROUGH 06Z BUT IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO VARIABLE WINDS. DIRECTIONS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010322
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
922 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ONE MORE BATCH OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT AS MUCH LIGHTNING OR WIND FOR THE
DENVER AREA WITH THIS...THOUGH THE CONVECTION ACROSS SE WYOMING
HAS LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND A NICE WIND SHIFT THAT MAY KEEP THINGS
GOING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BEHIND THIS NEXT BAND THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK CONVECTION
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH PRECIPITATION OR
LIGHTNING...SO MAINLY JUST THE REMNANT CLOUDS COMING OVER FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DID RAISE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND SLOWED DOWN THE DECAYING POPS A LITTLE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED AROUND DENVER THROUGH 06Z BUT IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO VARIABLE WINDS. DIRECTIONS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010322
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
922 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ONE MORE BATCH OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT AS MUCH LIGHTNING OR WIND FOR THE
DENVER AREA WITH THIS...THOUGH THE CONVECTION ACROSS SE WYOMING
HAS LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND A NICE WIND SHIFT THAT MAY KEEP THINGS
GOING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BEHIND THIS NEXT BAND THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK CONVECTION
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH PRECIPITATION OR
LIGHTNING...SO MAINLY JUST THE REMNANT CLOUDS COMING OVER FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DID RAISE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND SLOWED DOWN THE DECAYING POPS A LITTLE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED AROUND DENVER THROUGH 06Z BUT IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO VARIABLE WINDS. DIRECTIONS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010014
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER OR NEAR THE TAF SITES AT
TIMES...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010014
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER OR NEAR THE TAF SITES AT
TIMES...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010014
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER OR NEAR THE TAF SITES AT
TIMES...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302243
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
443 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST
UTAH. THE KVEL...KEGE...AND KASE TERMINAL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
BEING IMPACTED BY THIS WEATHER THROUGH 01/04Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH WILL THE MAIN IMPACTS AS RAINFALL RATES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302243
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
443 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST
UTAH. THE KVEL...KEGE...AND KASE TERMINAL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
BEING IMPACTED BY THIS WEATHER THROUGH 01/04Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH WILL THE MAIN IMPACTS AS RAINFALL RATES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 302130
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER OR NEAR THE TAF SITES AT
TIMES...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 302130
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER OR NEAR THE TAF SITES AT
TIMES...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 302130
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER OR NEAR THE TAF SITES AT
TIMES...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 302130
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER OR NEAR THE TAF SITES AT
TIMES...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KGJT 302128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC/JOE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301951
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A
FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY
AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY 00Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF
STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN
THAT TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKER
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301951
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A
FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY
AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY 00Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF
STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN
THAT TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKER
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301951
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A
FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY
AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY 00Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF
STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN
THAT TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKER
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301951
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A
FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY
AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY 00Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF
STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN
THAT TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKER
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 301717
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RATHER PALTRY CONVECTION. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE AND STORMS TIED MAINLY TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGF OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS AS HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE...WHILE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING INTO EARLY WED MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE STRONG WRN RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WED-FRI AS A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE OVR THE PLAINS AS THE FIRST OF
TWO FRONTAL PUSHES ARRIVE. THERE WILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 90S.

THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AS
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONTAL
PUSH CAN HOLD OFF TO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...WE COULD SEE SOME
MODERATE IMPACT WX THIS DAY...AS CAPE COULD BE IN THE 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND BULK SHEARS AT 40 KTS OR GREATER. PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BY EVENING IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE NR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

BY FRIDAY...THE SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE RATON AND FAR ERN
PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...AND
ISOLD ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO
SRN CO AND NRN NM. THIS WILL BRING HOT WX BACK TO OUR CWA...AND KEEP
THE BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON WILL START TO KICK IN AND AREAS FROM THE CONTDVD AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN ZONES SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL OR NR AVERAGE TEMPS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES TODAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301714
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. SOME FORCING SEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FAVORING THE NORTH. AFTERNOON STORMS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. AFTER A DOWNTURN
OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY
AGAIN FAVORING THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LATE-DAY
STORMS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY SOUTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301714
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. SOME FORCING SEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FAVORING THE NORTH. AFTERNOON STORMS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. AFTER A DOWNTURN
OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY
AGAIN FAVORING THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LATE-DAY
STORMS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY SOUTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301714
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. SOME FORCING SEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FAVORING THE NORTH. AFTERNOON STORMS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. AFTER A DOWNTURN
OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY
AGAIN FAVORING THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LATE-DAY
STORMS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY SOUTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301714
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. SOME FORCING SEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FAVORING THE NORTH. AFTERNOON STORMS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. AFTER A DOWNTURN
OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY
AGAIN FAVORING THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LATE-DAY
STORMS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY SOUTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301628
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT. DID
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE
TO THETA E RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND RECENT HIRES MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY OVER UTAH
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S ON MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DRAG SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST ONE SHOULD FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS. CAPES SHOULD
HOLD LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE. STILL A
MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH A 35-55 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE
IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A COOLER
AIRMASS AND NORTHEASTERLY...THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN MAYBE
WEAK DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE PROGGED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLIES BY AFTERNOON
...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
FAIRLY DECENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S F THROUGH THE PERIODS. AGAIN THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND...
NOTHING GREAT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS ON THE CROSS SECTIONS DO
KEEP A PRETTY DECENT STABLE LAYER OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALL
FOUR PERIODS. WILL GO WITH 20-50%S POPS FOR THE PLAIN`S LATE DAY
PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAY ALSO
LET SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
PERIODS...06-18Z. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C WARMER THAN
THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS
KEEP A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY MIGRATE IT EASTWARD. THE CENTER OF A
WEAKER...THEN OF LATE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS AND IS MORE DUE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IT IS PRETTY DRY FOR THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM
NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY
23Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS
DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301628
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT. DID
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE
TO THETA E RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND RECENT HIRES MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY OVER UTAH
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S ON MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DRAG SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST ONE SHOULD FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS. CAPES SHOULD
HOLD LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE. STILL A
MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH A 35-55 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE
IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A COOLER
AIRMASS AND NORTHEASTERLY...THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN MAYBE
WEAK DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE PROGGED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLIES BY AFTERNOON
...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
FAIRLY DECENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S F THROUGH THE PERIODS. AGAIN THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND...
NOTHING GREAT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS ON THE CROSS SECTIONS DO
KEEP A PRETTY DECENT STABLE LAYER OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALL
FOUR PERIODS. WILL GO WITH 20-50%S POPS FOR THE PLAIN`S LATE DAY
PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAY ALSO
LET SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
PERIODS...06-18Z. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C WARMER THAN
THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS
KEEP A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY MIGRATE IT EASTWARD. THE CENTER OF A
WEAKER...THEN OF LATE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS AND IS MORE DUE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IT IS PRETTY DRY FOR THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A FRONTAL PUSH THIS EVENING TURNS THEM
NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THAT HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAY AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY
23Z- 04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS
DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301009
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
409 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...INSTEAD OF THE SAN JUAN
MTNS AND SW CO OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z BELIEVE
KEGE...KASE...KGUC AND KTEX WILL SEE STORMS IN THE VICINITY...WITH
ABOUT AT 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE
AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN
PEAKS AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KBOU 300943
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY OVER UTAH
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S ON MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DRAG SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST ONE SHOULD FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS. CAPES SHOULD
HOLD LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE. STILL A
MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH A 35-55 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE
IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A COOLER
AIRMASS AND NORTHEASTERLY...THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN MAYBE
WEAK DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE PROGGED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLIES BY AFTERNOON
...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
FAIRLY DECENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S F THROUGH THE PERIODS. AGAIN THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND...
NOTHING GREAT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS ON THE CROSS SECTIONS DO
KEEP A PRETTY DECENT STABLE LAYER OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALL
FOUR PERIODS. WILL GO WITH 20-50%S POPS FOR THE PLAIN`S LATE DAY
PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAY ALSO
LET SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
PERIODS...06-18Z. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C WARMER THAN
THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS
KEEP A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY MIGRATE IT EASTWARD. THE CENTER OF A
WEAKER...THEN OF LATE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS AND IS MORE DUE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IT IS PRETTY DRY FOR THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY
23Z-04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS
DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR FAIRLY NORMAL AND LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 300943
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY OVER UTAH
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S ON MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DRAG SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST ONE SHOULD FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS. CAPES SHOULD
HOLD LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE. STILL A
MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH A 35-55 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE
IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A COOLER
AIRMASS AND NORTHEASTERLY...THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN MAYBE
WEAK DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE PROGGED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLIES BY AFTERNOON
...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
FAIRLY DECENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S F THROUGH THE PERIODS. AGAIN THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND...
NOTHING GREAT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS ON THE CROSS SECTIONS DO
KEEP A PRETTY DECENT STABLE LAYER OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALL
FOUR PERIODS. WILL GO WITH 20-50%S POPS FOR THE PLAIN`S LATE DAY
PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAY ALSO
LET SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
PERIODS...06-18Z. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C WARMER THAN
THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS
KEEP A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY MIGRATE IT EASTWARD. THE CENTER OF A
WEAKER...THEN OF LATE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS AND IS MORE DUE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IT IS PRETTY DRY FOR THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY
23Z-04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS
DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR FAIRLY NORMAL AND LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300927
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RATHER PALTRY CONVECTION. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE AND STORMS TIED MAINLY TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGF OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS AS HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE...WHILE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING INTO EARLY WED MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE STRONG WRN RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WED-FRI AS A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE OVR THE PLAINS AS THE FIRST OF
TWO FRONTAL PUSHES ARRIVE. THERE WILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 90S.

THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AS
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONTAL
PUSH CAN HOLD OFF TO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...WE COULD SEE SOME
MODERATE IMPACT WX THIS DAY...AS CAPE COULD BE IN THE 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND BULK SHEARS AT 40 KTS OR GREATER. PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BY EVENING IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE NR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

BY FRIDAY...THE SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE RATON AND FAR ERN
PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...AND
ISOLD ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO
SRN CO AND NRN NM. THIS WILL BRING HOT WX BACK TO OUR CWA...AND KEEP
THE BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON WILL START TO KICK IN AND AREAS FROM THE CONTDVD AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN ZONES SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL OR NR AVERAGE TEMPS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION REMAINING ISOLATED AND TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS 03Z-09Z
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SPARK SOME STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KCOS 04-07Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300927
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RATHER PALTRY CONVECTION. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE AND STORMS TIED MAINLY TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGF OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS AS HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE...WHILE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING INTO EARLY WED MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE STRONG WRN RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WED-FRI AS A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE OVR THE PLAINS AS THE FIRST OF
TWO FRONTAL PUSHES ARRIVE. THERE WILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 90S.

THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AS
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONTAL
PUSH CAN HOLD OFF TO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...WE COULD SEE SOME
MODERATE IMPACT WX THIS DAY...AS CAPE COULD BE IN THE 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND BULK SHEARS AT 40 KTS OR GREATER. PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BY EVENING IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE NR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

BY FRIDAY...THE SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE RATON AND FAR ERN
PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...AND
ISOLD ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO
SRN CO AND NRN NM. THIS WILL BRING HOT WX BACK TO OUR CWA...AND KEEP
THE BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON WILL START TO KICK IN AND AREAS FROM THE CONTDVD AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN ZONES SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL OR NR AVERAGE TEMPS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION REMAINING ISOLATED AND TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS 03Z-09Z
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SPARK SOME STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KCOS 04-07Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300927
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RATHER PALTRY CONVECTION. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE AND STORMS TIED MAINLY TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGF OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS AS HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE...WHILE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING INTO EARLY WED MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE STRONG WRN RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WED-FRI AS A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE OVR THE PLAINS AS THE FIRST OF
TWO FRONTAL PUSHES ARRIVE. THERE WILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 90S.

THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AS
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONTAL
PUSH CAN HOLD OFF TO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...WE COULD SEE SOME
MODERATE IMPACT WX THIS DAY...AS CAPE COULD BE IN THE 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND BULK SHEARS AT 40 KTS OR GREATER. PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BY EVENING IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE NR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

BY FRIDAY...THE SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE RATON AND FAR ERN
PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...AND
ISOLD ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO
SRN CO AND NRN NM. THIS WILL BRING HOT WX BACK TO OUR CWA...AND KEEP
THE BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON WILL START TO KICK IN AND AREAS FROM THE CONTDVD AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN ZONES SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL OR NR AVERAGE TEMPS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION REMAINING ISOLATED AND TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS 03Z-09Z
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SPARK SOME STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KCOS 04-07Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300927
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RATHER PALTRY CONVECTION. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE AND STORMS TIED MAINLY TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGF OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS AS HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE...WHILE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING INTO EARLY WED MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE STRONG WRN RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WED-FRI AS A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE OVR THE PLAINS AS THE FIRST OF
TWO FRONTAL PUSHES ARRIVE. THERE WILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 90S.

THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AS
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONTAL
PUSH CAN HOLD OFF TO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...WE COULD SEE SOME
MODERATE IMPACT WX THIS DAY...AS CAPE COULD BE IN THE 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND BULK SHEARS AT 40 KTS OR GREATER. PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BY EVENING IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE NR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

BY FRIDAY...THE SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE RATON AND FAR ERN
PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...AND
ISOLD ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO
SRN CO AND NRN NM. THIS WILL BRING HOT WX BACK TO OUR CWA...AND KEEP
THE BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON WILL START TO KICK IN AND AREAS FROM THE CONTDVD AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN ZONES SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL OR NR AVERAGE TEMPS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION REMAINING ISOLATED AND TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS 03Z-09Z
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SPARK SOME STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KCOS 04-07Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300927
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RATHER PALTRY CONVECTION. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE AND STORMS TIED MAINLY TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGF OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS AS HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE...WHILE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING INTO EARLY WED MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE STRONG WRN RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WED-FRI AS A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE OVR THE PLAINS AS THE FIRST OF
TWO FRONTAL PUSHES ARRIVE. THERE WILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 90S.

THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AS
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONTAL
PUSH CAN HOLD OFF TO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...WE COULD SEE SOME
MODERATE IMPACT WX THIS DAY...AS CAPE COULD BE IN THE 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND BULK SHEARS AT 40 KTS OR GREATER. PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BY EVENING IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE NR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

BY FRIDAY...THE SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE RATON AND FAR ERN
PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...AND
ISOLD ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO
SRN CO AND NRN NM. THIS WILL BRING HOT WX BACK TO OUR CWA...AND KEEP
THE BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON WILL START TO KICK IN AND AREAS FROM THE CONTDVD AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN ZONES SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL OR NR AVERAGE TEMPS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION REMAINING ISOLATED AND TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS 03Z-09Z
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SPARK SOME STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KCOS 04-07Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300927
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RATHER PALTRY CONVECTION. STILL
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE AND STORMS TIED MAINLY TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGF OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS AS HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE...WHILE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING INTO EARLY WED MORNING
FOR THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE STRONG WRN RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WED-FRI AS A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE OVR THE PLAINS AS THE FIRST OF
TWO FRONTAL PUSHES ARRIVE. THERE WILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALMER DVD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 90S.

THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AS
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONTAL
PUSH CAN HOLD OFF TO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY...WE COULD SEE SOME
MODERATE IMPACT WX THIS DAY...AS CAPE COULD BE IN THE 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND BULK SHEARS AT 40 KTS OR GREATER. PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BY EVENING IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE NR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.

BY FRIDAY...THE SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE RATON AND FAR ERN
PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...AND
ISOLD ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO
SRN CO AND NRN NM. THIS WILL BRING HOT WX BACK TO OUR CWA...AND KEEP
THE BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON WILL START TO KICK IN AND AREAS FROM THE CONTDVD AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN ZONES SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL OR NR AVERAGE TEMPS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION REMAINING ISOLATED AND TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS 03Z-09Z
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SPARK SOME STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
SUNSET...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KCOS 04-07Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




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