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000
FXUS65 KPUB 171017
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
417 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING DURING THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK DATA INDICATES THAT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE ODILE
COVERING MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-SEPTEMBER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GRACING
SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY
HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE TRACK OVR AZ AND NM.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTDVD IN THE AFTERNOON. MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SRN AREAS OF CO THU NIGHT
AND FRI. SO WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SRN BORDER. ALSO ON FRI...AN UPR TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MSTR ALONG THE CONTDVD ALONG
WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
AN UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
WHICH SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY SAT.  MSTR LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED FOR SAT...BUT WL STILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCT PCPN OVR MTN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS WL COOL TO AROUND AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS.

SUN AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVR NV...WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR CO.
BY MON MORNING THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TRACK INTO NRN UT...AND THEN
INTO WRN WY BY MON EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS UPR LOW...MSTR WL
INCREASE OVR CO BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  MON NIGHT THE WEAKENING UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVR CO...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 171017
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
417 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING DURING THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK DATA INDICATES THAT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE ODILE
COVERING MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-SEPTEMBER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GRACING
SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY
HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE TRACK OVR AZ AND NM.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTDVD IN THE AFTERNOON. MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SRN AREAS OF CO THU NIGHT
AND FRI. SO WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SRN BORDER. ALSO ON FRI...AN UPR TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MSTR ALONG THE CONTDVD ALONG
WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
AN UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
WHICH SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY SAT.  MSTR LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED FOR SAT...BUT WL STILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCT PCPN OVR MTN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS WL COOL TO AROUND AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS.

SUN AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVR NV...WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR CO.
BY MON MORNING THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TRACK INTO NRN UT...AND THEN
INTO WRN WY BY MON EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS UPR LOW...MSTR WL
INCREASE OVR CO BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  MON NIGHT THE WEAKENING UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVR CO...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 171001
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
401 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ODILE
MOISTURE AS IT LIFTS INTO ARIZONA. GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CLIMBING ABOVE AN
INCH ALREADY AND WITH NORTHWARD DRIFT OF THIS MOISTURE...SHOULD
SEE A FEW MORE STORMS FIRE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBING STEADILY INTO THE
50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING...SO STORMS WILL HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ONCE THEY GET ROLLING.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL AND MAY STILL BE
ON THE LOW SIDE...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS...FEW MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
ISOLATED STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN MOST AREAS...MORE IN LINE WITH
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK AND SPEED...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM SHOWS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH THE GFS PLACING IT TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO. NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE UT/CO FOR A REX PATTERN ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN REGION AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE AT BLOCKING ODILE`S DEEPER
MOISTURE...KEEPING THE BULK OF IT TO OUR SOUTH.

HOWEVER EXPECT THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE FOR A TIME DUE TO THE
MOISTURE THAT WILL HAVE SEEPED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BORDER. THEN ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT COVERAGE WILL MOSTLY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE STILL REMAINS AT BAY. THE SOUTH WILL BE
FAVORED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BY THU NIGHT...THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
PUTS US UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH MAY FINALLY HELP CARRY SOME
OF ODILE`S MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN TROUGH
WILL SPLIT...AND CUT OFF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST THROUGH
FRI. IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND POSSIBLY HELP PUSH WHAT IS
LEFT OF ODILE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
UNDERPLAY THE MOISTURE THAT WILL REACH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AS
COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. BUT FRIDAY SHOULD BE OUR BEST DAY FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BOOST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH THE SOUTH IN PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE PRESENT FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL
WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE VALLEYS. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY WILL BE A DOWN DAY AS SUBSIDENT FLOW IN WAKE OF EXITING
NORTHERN WAVE SETTLES IN. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP AND LOWERED POPS ON
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. MAJOR CHANGES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE DEEP CLOSED
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT ENE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL DRAW UP ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH
THE LOW SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. DEEP
SOUTHERLY DIFLUENT FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN BOOSTED A BIT WITH SOME
MODEL CONTINUITY DEVELOPING WITH THE ECMWF FALLING IN LINE WITH
YESTERDAYS GFS RUN. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF THE EXTENDED WHILE KNOCKING TEMPS BACK A BIT...OR
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. PLENTY OF TIME FOR REFINEMENT TO THE
FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE
RISE AS WE ROLL INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTH OF BLANDING
UTAH IN SOUTHEAST UTAH. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A FEW STORMS WILL DRIFT INTO
THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND KDRO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/EH
LONG TERM...EH/JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 171001
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
401 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ODILE
MOISTURE AS IT LIFTS INTO ARIZONA. GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CLIMBING ABOVE AN
INCH ALREADY AND WITH NORTHWARD DRIFT OF THIS MOISTURE...SHOULD
SEE A FEW MORE STORMS FIRE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBING STEADILY INTO THE
50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING...SO STORMS WILL HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ONCE THEY GET ROLLING.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL AND MAY STILL BE
ON THE LOW SIDE...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS...FEW MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
ISOLATED STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN MOST AREAS...MORE IN LINE WITH
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK AND SPEED...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM SHOWS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH THE GFS PLACING IT TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO. NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE UT/CO FOR A REX PATTERN ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN REGION AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE AT BLOCKING ODILE`S DEEPER
MOISTURE...KEEPING THE BULK OF IT TO OUR SOUTH.

HOWEVER EXPECT THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE FOR A TIME DUE TO THE
MOISTURE THAT WILL HAVE SEEPED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BORDER. THEN ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT COVERAGE WILL MOSTLY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE STILL REMAINS AT BAY. THE SOUTH WILL BE
FAVORED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BY THU NIGHT...THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
PUTS US UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH MAY FINALLY HELP CARRY SOME
OF ODILE`S MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN TROUGH
WILL SPLIT...AND CUT OFF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST THROUGH
FRI. IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND POSSIBLY HELP PUSH WHAT IS
LEFT OF ODILE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
UNDERPLAY THE MOISTURE THAT WILL REACH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AS
COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. BUT FRIDAY SHOULD BE OUR BEST DAY FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BOOST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH THE SOUTH IN PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE PRESENT FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL
WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE VALLEYS. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY WILL BE A DOWN DAY AS SUBSIDENT FLOW IN WAKE OF EXITING
NORTHERN WAVE SETTLES IN. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP AND LOWERED POPS ON
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. MAJOR CHANGES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE DEEP CLOSED
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT ENE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL DRAW UP ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH
THE LOW SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. DEEP
SOUTHERLY DIFLUENT FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN BOOSTED A BIT WITH SOME
MODEL CONTINUITY DEVELOPING WITH THE ECMWF FALLING IN LINE WITH
YESTERDAYS GFS RUN. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF THE EXTENDED WHILE KNOCKING TEMPS BACK A BIT...OR
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. PLENTY OF TIME FOR REFINEMENT TO THE
FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE
RISE AS WE ROLL INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTH OF BLANDING
UTAH IN SOUTHEAST UTAH. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A FEW STORMS WILL DRIFT INTO
THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND KDRO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/EH
LONG TERM...EH/JDC
AVIATION...JDC



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 170853
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT.
SOME HIGHER LVL MOISTURE FM ODILE IS SPREADING NE ACROSS SRN CO AND
SOME IF THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SRN AREAS OF FCST AREA THRU THIS
AFTN.  ONCE AGAIN MAY SEE SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OVER NERN CO A WK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FCST TO DVLP OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED
STORMS AS WELL.  MEANWHILE THIS EVENING SOME DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH CAPES RANGING FM 1500-2000
J/KG.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A FEW HI BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
TAP INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THUS WILL
PUT IN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILE AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE.  AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE SO WILL HAVE
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER NERN CO.  FOR LATE
TONIGHT MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER RIGHT OVER THE CWA THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN THROUGH
THE FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS SHOW PRETTY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY...THE SAME THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
ENHANCED DRAINAGE PATTERNS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT AND SOME
UPSLOPE ON FRIDAY...THAT OR MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EXPECTED
...SAME FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW 50S F OVER THE EASTERN
BORDER. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 50S F ARE PROGGED FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...50S F ARE PROGGED
OVER THE ALL THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE IN THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER AND HIGH MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. THE CAPE IS MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH HIGHER VALUES FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY. THE QPF FIELDS
HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH MID DAY
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR POPS...WILL HAVE NONE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-30% POPS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO TODAY`S. FRIDAY`S READINGS LOOK ABOUT 2-3 C
COOLER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAY`S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
AROUND COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE QUITE
A BIT MOISTURE AROUND MUCH OF THE FOUR DAYS. THIS HAS INCREASED
QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT WSW BY 15Z AND THEN LIGHT NLY BY 17Z.  BY 20Z THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT ENE AND THEN TRANSITION TO SELY BY 01Z.  BY 05Z THEY
SHOULD GO BACK TO DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 170853
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT.
SOME HIGHER LVL MOISTURE FM ODILE IS SPREADING NE ACROSS SRN CO AND
SOME IF THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SRN AREAS OF FCST AREA THRU THIS
AFTN.  ONCE AGAIN MAY SEE SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OVER NERN CO A WK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FCST TO DVLP OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED
STORMS AS WELL.  MEANWHILE THIS EVENING SOME DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH CAPES RANGING FM 1500-2000
J/KG.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A FEW HI BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
TAP INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THUS WILL
PUT IN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILE AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE.  AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE SO WILL HAVE
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER NERN CO.  FOR LATE
TONIGHT MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER RIGHT OVER THE CWA THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN THROUGH
THE FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS SHOW PRETTY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY...THE SAME THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
ENHANCED DRAINAGE PATTERNS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT AND SOME
UPSLOPE ON FRIDAY...THAT OR MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EXPECTED
...SAME FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW 50S F OVER THE EASTERN
BORDER. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 50S F ARE PROGGED FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...50S F ARE PROGGED
OVER THE ALL THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE IN THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER AND HIGH MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. THE CAPE IS MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH HIGHER VALUES FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY. THE QPF FIELDS
HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH MID DAY
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR POPS...WILL HAVE NONE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-30% POPS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO TODAY`S. FRIDAY`S READINGS LOOK ABOUT 2-3 C
COOLER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAY`S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
AROUND COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE QUITE
A BIT MOISTURE AROUND MUCH OF THE FOUR DAYS. THIS HAS INCREASED
QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT WSW BY 15Z AND THEN LIGHT NLY BY 17Z.  BY 20Z THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT ENE AND THEN TRANSITION TO SELY BY 01Z.  BY 05Z THEY
SHOULD GO BACK TO DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 170840
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WNW FLOW ALOFT.  SOME HIGHER LVL MOISTURE FM ODILE IS SPREADING NE
ACROSS SRN CO AND SOME IF THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SRN AREAS OF FCST
AREA THRU THIS AFTN.  ONCE AGAIN MAY SEE SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OVER NERN CO A WK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FCST TO DVLP OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED
STORMS AS WELL.  MEANWHILE THIS EVENING SOME DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH CAPES RANGING FM 1500-2000
J/KG.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A FEW HI BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
TAP INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THUS WILL
PUT IN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILE AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE.  AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE SO WILL HAVE
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER NERN CO.  FOR LATE
TONIGHT MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER RIGHT OVER THE CWA THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN THROUGH
THE FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS SHOW PRETTY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY...THE SAME THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
ENHANCED DRAINAGE PATTERNS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT AND SOME
UPSLOPE ON FRIDAY...THAT OR MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EXPECTED
...SAME FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW 50S F OVER THE EASTERN
BORDER. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 50S F ARE PROGGED FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...50S F ARE PROGGED
OVER THE ALL THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE IN THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER AND HIGH MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. THE CAPE IS MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH HIGHER VALUES FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY. THE QPF FIELDS
HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH MID DAY
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR POPS...WILL HAVE NONE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-30% POPS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO TODAY`S. FRIDAY`S READINGS LOOK ABOUT 2-3 C
COOLER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAY`S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
AROUND COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE QUITE
A BIT MOISTURE AROUND MUCH OF THE FOUR DAYS. THIS HAS INCREASED
QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT WSW BY 15Z AND THEN LIGHT NLY BY 17Z.  BY 20Z THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT ENE AND THEN TRANSITION TO SELY BY 01Z.  BY 05Z THEY
SHOULD GO BACK TO DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 170840
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WNW FLOW ALOFT.  SOME HIGHER LVL MOISTURE FM ODILE IS SPREADING NE
ACROSS SRN CO AND SOME IF THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SRN AREAS OF FCST
AREA THRU THIS AFTN.  ONCE AGAIN MAY SEE SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OVER NERN CO A WK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FCST TO DVLP OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED
STORMS AS WELL.  MEANWHILE THIS EVENING SOME DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH CAPES RANGING FM 1500-2000
J/KG.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A FEW HI BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
TAP INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THUS WILL
PUT IN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILE AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE.  AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE SO WILL HAVE
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER NERN CO.  FOR LATE
TONIGHT MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER RIGHT OVER THE CWA THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN THROUGH
THE FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS SHOW PRETTY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY...THE SAME THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
ENHANCED DRAINAGE PATTERNS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT AND SOME
UPSLOPE ON FRIDAY...THAT OR MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EXPECTED
...SAME FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW 50S F OVER THE EASTERN
BORDER. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 50S F ARE PROGGED FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...50S F ARE PROGGED
OVER THE ALL THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE IN THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER AND HIGH MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. THE CAPE IS MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH HIGHER VALUES FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY. THE QPF FIELDS
HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH MID DAY
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR POPS...WILL HAVE NONE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-30% POPS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO TODAY`S. FRIDAY`S READINGS LOOK ABOUT 2-3 C
COOLER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAY`S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
AROUND COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE QUITE
A BIT MOISTURE AROUND MUCH OF THE FOUR DAYS. THIS HAS INCREASED
QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT WSW BY 15Z AND THEN LIGHT NLY BY 17Z.  BY 20Z THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT ENE AND THEN TRANSITION TO SELY BY 01Z.  BY 05Z THEY
SHOULD GO BACK TO DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 170840
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WNW FLOW ALOFT.  SOME HIGHER LVL MOISTURE FM ODILE IS SPREADING NE
ACROSS SRN CO AND SOME IF THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SRN AREAS OF FCST
AREA THRU THIS AFTN.  ONCE AGAIN MAY SEE SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OVER NERN CO A WK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FCST TO DVLP OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED
STORMS AS WELL.  MEANWHILE THIS EVENING SOME DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH CAPES RANGING FM 1500-2000
J/KG.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A FEW HI BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
TAP INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THUS WILL
PUT IN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILE AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE.  AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE SO WILL HAVE
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER NERN CO.  FOR LATE
TONIGHT MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER RIGHT OVER THE CWA THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN THROUGH
THE FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS SHOW PRETTY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY...THE SAME THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
ENHANCED DRAINAGE PATTERNS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT AND SOME
UPSLOPE ON FRIDAY...THAT OR MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EXPECTED
...SAME FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW 50S F OVER THE EASTERN
BORDER. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 50S F ARE PROGGED FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...50S F ARE PROGGED
OVER THE ALL THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE IN THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER AND HIGH MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. THE CAPE IS MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH HIGHER VALUES FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY. THE QPF FIELDS
HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH MID DAY
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR POPS...WILL HAVE NONE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-30% POPS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO TODAY`S. FRIDAY`S READINGS LOOK ABOUT 2-3 C
COOLER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAY`S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
AROUND COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE QUITE
A BIT MOISTURE AROUND MUCH OF THE FOUR DAYS. THIS HAS INCREASED
QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT WSW BY 15Z AND THEN LIGHT NLY BY 17Z.  BY 20Z THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT ENE AND THEN TRANSITION TO SELY BY 01Z.  BY 05Z THEY
SHOULD GO BACK TO DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 170840
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WNW FLOW ALOFT.  SOME HIGHER LVL MOISTURE FM ODILE IS SPREADING NE
ACROSS SRN CO AND SOME IF THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SRN AREAS OF FCST
AREA THRU THIS AFTN.  ONCE AGAIN MAY SEE SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OVER NERN CO A WK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FCST TO DVLP OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED
STORMS AS WELL.  MEANWHILE THIS EVENING SOME DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH CAPES RANGING FM 1500-2000
J/KG.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A FEW HI BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
TAP INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THUS WILL
PUT IN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILE AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE.  AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE SO WILL HAVE
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER NERN CO.  FOR LATE
TONIGHT MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER RIGHT OVER THE CWA THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN THROUGH
THE FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS SHOW PRETTY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY...THE SAME THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
ENHANCED DRAINAGE PATTERNS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT AND SOME
UPSLOPE ON FRIDAY...THAT OR MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EXPECTED
...SAME FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW 50S F OVER THE EASTERN
BORDER. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 50S F ARE PROGGED FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...50S F ARE PROGGED
OVER THE ALL THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE IN THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER AND HIGH MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. THE CAPE IS MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH HIGHER VALUES FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY. THE QPF FIELDS
HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH MID DAY
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR POPS...WILL HAVE NONE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-30% POPS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO TODAY`S. FRIDAY`S READINGS LOOK ABOUT 2-3 C
COOLER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAY`S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
AROUND COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE QUITE
A BIT MOISTURE AROUND MUCH OF THE FOUR DAYS. THIS HAS INCREASED
QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT WSW BY 15Z AND THEN LIGHT NLY BY 17Z.  BY 20Z THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT ENE AND THEN TRANSITION TO SELY BY 01Z.  BY 05Z THEY
SHOULD GO BACK TO DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KPUB 170529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SKY COVER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 170529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SKY COVER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 170507
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1107 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITION TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH KGJT PWAT AT
0.66 INCHES AND LITTLE CHANGE PREDICTED. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
GOOD SURFACE HEATING ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ODILE WAS MOVING ONSHORE OVER NW MEXICO AND APPEARS WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE CO AND UT WED AND THU. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD NORTH
OF ODILE IS RIDGING NORTH FROM NM AND AZ AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
ACROSS SW CO AND SE UT TONIGHT AND WED.

A LARGE RIDGE IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 500
MB RIDGELINE SHOULD BE OVER THE CO AND UT BORDER ABOUT 00Z THU AND
REACH CENTRAL CO BY THU 12Z. THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGELINE
WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVER UT AND
CO WED AND WED NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA FOR THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD EDGING NORTH FROM
AZ AND NM...WHILE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CONFIDENCE WAS SHATTERED EARLIER THIS WEEK AS MID TO LATE TERM
MODELS WERE INCONSISTENT IN BOTH CONTINUITY AND TIMING IN DEALING
WITH ODILE AND THE PUSH INLAND OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. TODAY THINGS
ARE LOOKING MORE PEACHY AS BOTH ASPECTS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW APPEARS ODILE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE...CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND FORMING A REX TYPE
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PULLING A STRONG AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OR
SPREADING SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR CWA. PWAT THAT
WAS WELL OVER AN INCH A FEW DAYS AGO ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. CAN THIS CHANGE OR MODEL AGREEMENT FLIP
AGAIN...YES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TO TREND POPS AND ESPECIALLY QPF
DOWNWARD WITH THIS CONSENSUS. THERE WILL STILL BE THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY GONE BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
LIMITED. MID LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BE CATCHING THE
WESTERLIES. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE TROUGH IS PHASED AS IT MOVES
INLAND BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING. IN
FACT BY 24 HOURS LATER ANOTHER REX PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP IN
THE WEST AS MODELS DO CLOSE A LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUIET WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW OUT WEST PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
NOT HOLDING ONTO MY HAT ON ANY SOLUTION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF
LATE...BUT POPS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS
AND DID NOT MAKE CHANGES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH LESS MOISTURE AROUND...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z AND WIND DOWN BY 03Z WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A FEW CELLS MAY DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VCNTY OF KTEX AND KDRO. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 170507
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1107 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITION TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH KGJT PWAT AT
0.66 INCHES AND LITTLE CHANGE PREDICTED. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
GOOD SURFACE HEATING ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ODILE WAS MOVING ONSHORE OVER NW MEXICO AND APPEARS WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE CO AND UT WED AND THU. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD NORTH
OF ODILE IS RIDGING NORTH FROM NM AND AZ AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
ACROSS SW CO AND SE UT TONIGHT AND WED.

A LARGE RIDGE IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 500
MB RIDGELINE SHOULD BE OVER THE CO AND UT BORDER ABOUT 00Z THU AND
REACH CENTRAL CO BY THU 12Z. THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGELINE
WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVER UT AND
CO WED AND WED NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA FOR THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD EDGING NORTH FROM
AZ AND NM...WHILE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CONFIDENCE WAS SHATTERED EARLIER THIS WEEK AS MID TO LATE TERM
MODELS WERE INCONSISTENT IN BOTH CONTINUITY AND TIMING IN DEALING
WITH ODILE AND THE PUSH INLAND OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. TODAY THINGS
ARE LOOKING MORE PEACHY AS BOTH ASPECTS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW APPEARS ODILE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE...CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND FORMING A REX TYPE
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PULLING A STRONG AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OR
SPREADING SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR CWA. PWAT THAT
WAS WELL OVER AN INCH A FEW DAYS AGO ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. CAN THIS CHANGE OR MODEL AGREEMENT FLIP
AGAIN...YES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TO TREND POPS AND ESPECIALLY QPF
DOWNWARD WITH THIS CONSENSUS. THERE WILL STILL BE THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY GONE BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
LIMITED. MID LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BE CATCHING THE
WESTERLIES. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE TROUGH IS PHASED AS IT MOVES
INLAND BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING. IN
FACT BY 24 HOURS LATER ANOTHER REX PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP IN
THE WEST AS MODELS DO CLOSE A LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUIET WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW OUT WEST PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
NOT HOLDING ONTO MY HAT ON ANY SOLUTION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF
LATE...BUT POPS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS
AND DID NOT MAKE CHANGES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH LESS MOISTURE AROUND...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z AND WIND DOWN BY 03Z WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A FEW CELLS MAY DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VCNTY OF KTEX AND KDRO. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 170235
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
835 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES TO EVENING FORECAST. THERE WERE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
OVER PARK COUNTY BUT THESE HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. AIRMASS MAINLY
DRY AND STABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR FROM LATE DAY CONVECTION WOULD
BE IN ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
WEATHER WILL BE THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MOS SUGGESTING WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE 86-91F RANGE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED BUT NOT
BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CO MAKING ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BUT CHANGE TO A MORE WSW FLOW BY 06Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF BY SAT MORNING HELPING TO
TURN THE FLOW MORE ZONAL BY 06Z SAT. WEAK MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER CO THURSDAY MORNING TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE PARK
COUNTY AREA. DOWNWARD MOTION DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH WEAK ASCENT
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND 80S FRIDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT OVER NE
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT
GET THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF TS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM DOMINATING  SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS BREAKS
IT DOWN MONDAY WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEPS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS AS SURFACE
WINDS SHIFT MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BEHIND BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT SOME SCATTERED MID LVL CLOUDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 170235
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
835 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES TO EVENING FORECAST. THERE WERE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
OVER PARK COUNTY BUT THESE HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. AIRMASS MAINLY
DRY AND STABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR FROM LATE DAY CONVECTION WOULD
BE IN ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
WEATHER WILL BE THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MOS SUGGESTING WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE 86-91F RANGE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED BUT NOT
BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CO MAKING ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BUT CHANGE TO A MORE WSW FLOW BY 06Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF BY SAT MORNING HELPING TO
TURN THE FLOW MORE ZONAL BY 06Z SAT. WEAK MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER CO THURSDAY MORNING TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE PARK
COUNTY AREA. DOWNWARD MOTION DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH WEAK ASCENT
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND 80S FRIDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT OVER NE
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT
GET THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF TS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM DOMINATING  SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS BREAKS
IT DOWN MONDAY WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEPS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS AS SURFACE
WINDS SHIFT MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BEHIND BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT SOME SCATTERED MID LVL CLOUDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170117
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
717 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES NORTH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170117
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
717 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES NORTH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170117
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
717 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES NORTH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170117
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
717 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES NORTH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 162340
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
540 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITION TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH KGJT PWAT AT
0.66 INCHES AND LITTLE CHANGE PREDICTED. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
GOOD SURFACE HEATING ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ODILE WAS MOVING ONSHORE OVER NW MEXICO AND APPEARS WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE CO AND UT WED AND THU. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD NORTH
OF ODILE IS RIDGING NORTH FROM NM AND AZ AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
ACROSS SW CO AND SE UT TONIGHT AND WED.

A LARGE RIDGE IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 500
MB RIDGELINE SHOULD BE OVER THE CO AND UT BORDER ABOUT 00Z THU AND
REACH CENTRAL CO BY THU 12Z. THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGELINE
WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVER UT AND
CO WED AND WED NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA FOR THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD EDGING NORTH FROM
AZ AND NM...WHILE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CONFIDENCE WAS SHATTERED EARLIER THIS WEEK AS MID TO LATE TERM
MODELS WERE INCONSISTENT IN BOTH CONTINUITY AND TIMING IN DEALING
WITH ODILE AND THE PUSH INLAND OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. TODAY THINGS
ARE LOOKING MORE PEACHY AS BOTH ASPECTS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW APPEARS ODILE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE...CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND FORMING A REX TYPE
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PULLING A STRONG AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OR
SPREADING SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR CWA. PWAT THAT
WAS WELL OVER AN INCH A FEW DAYS AGO ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. CAN THIS CHANGE OR MODEL AGREEMENT FLIP
AGAIN...YES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TO TREND POPS AND ESPECIALLY QPF
DOWNWARD WITH THIS CONSENSUS. THERE WILL STILL BE THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY GONE BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
LIMITED. MID LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BE CATCHING THE
WESTERLIES. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE TROUGH IS PHASED AS IT MOVES
INLAND BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING. IN
FACT BY 24 HOURS LATER ANOTHER REX PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP IN
THE WEST AS MODELS DO CLOSE A LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUIET WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW OUT WEST PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
NOT HOLDING ONTO MY HAT ON ANY SOLUTION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF
LATE...BUT POPS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS
AND DID NOT MAKE CHANGES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH LESS MOSITURE AROUND...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET...OTHERWISE NO
AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED -TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SW COLORADO. ONLY A FEW OR
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 162340
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
540 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITION TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH KGJT PWAT AT
0.66 INCHES AND LITTLE CHANGE PREDICTED. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
GOOD SURFACE HEATING ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ODILE WAS MOVING ONSHORE OVER NW MEXICO AND APPEARS WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE CO AND UT WED AND THU. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD NORTH
OF ODILE IS RIDGING NORTH FROM NM AND AZ AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
ACROSS SW CO AND SE UT TONIGHT AND WED.

A LARGE RIDGE IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 500
MB RIDGELINE SHOULD BE OVER THE CO AND UT BORDER ABOUT 00Z THU AND
REACH CENTRAL CO BY THU 12Z. THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGELINE
WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVER UT AND
CO WED AND WED NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA FOR THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD EDGING NORTH FROM
AZ AND NM...WHILE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CONFIDENCE WAS SHATTERED EARLIER THIS WEEK AS MID TO LATE TERM
MODELS WERE INCONSISTENT IN BOTH CONTINUITY AND TIMING IN DEALING
WITH ODILE AND THE PUSH INLAND OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. TODAY THINGS
ARE LOOKING MORE PEACHY AS BOTH ASPECTS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW APPEARS ODILE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE...CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND FORMING A REX TYPE
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PULLING A STRONG AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OR
SPREADING SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR CWA. PWAT THAT
WAS WELL OVER AN INCH A FEW DAYS AGO ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. CAN THIS CHANGE OR MODEL AGREEMENT FLIP
AGAIN...YES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TO TREND POPS AND ESPECIALLY QPF
DOWNWARD WITH THIS CONSENSUS. THERE WILL STILL BE THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY GONE BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
LIMITED. MID LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BE CATCHING THE
WESTERLIES. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE TROUGH IS PHASED AS IT MOVES
INLAND BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING. IN
FACT BY 24 HOURS LATER ANOTHER REX PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP IN
THE WEST AS MODELS DO CLOSE A LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUIET WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW OUT WEST PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
NOT HOLDING ONTO MY HAT ON ANY SOLUTION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF
LATE...BUT POPS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS
AND DID NOT MAKE CHANGES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH LESS MOSITURE AROUND...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET...OTHERWISE NO
AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED -TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SW COLORADO. ONLY A FEW OR
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 162340
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
540 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITION TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH KGJT PWAT AT
0.66 INCHES AND LITTLE CHANGE PREDICTED. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
GOOD SURFACE HEATING ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ODILE WAS MOVING ONSHORE OVER NW MEXICO AND APPEARS WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE CO AND UT WED AND THU. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD NORTH
OF ODILE IS RIDGING NORTH FROM NM AND AZ AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
ACROSS SW CO AND SE UT TONIGHT AND WED.

A LARGE RIDGE IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 500
MB RIDGELINE SHOULD BE OVER THE CO AND UT BORDER ABOUT 00Z THU AND
REACH CENTRAL CO BY THU 12Z. THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGELINE
WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVER UT AND
CO WED AND WED NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA FOR THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD EDGING NORTH FROM
AZ AND NM...WHILE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CONFIDENCE WAS SHATTERED EARLIER THIS WEEK AS MID TO LATE TERM
MODELS WERE INCONSISTENT IN BOTH CONTINUITY AND TIMING IN DEALING
WITH ODILE AND THE PUSH INLAND OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. TODAY THINGS
ARE LOOKING MORE PEACHY AS BOTH ASPECTS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW APPEARS ODILE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE...CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND FORMING A REX TYPE
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PULLING A STRONG AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OR
SPREADING SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR CWA. PWAT THAT
WAS WELL OVER AN INCH A FEW DAYS AGO ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. CAN THIS CHANGE OR MODEL AGREEMENT FLIP
AGAIN...YES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TO TREND POPS AND ESPECIALLY QPF
DOWNWARD WITH THIS CONSENSUS. THERE WILL STILL BE THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY GONE BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
LIMITED. MID LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BE CATCHING THE
WESTERLIES. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE TROUGH IS PHASED AS IT MOVES
INLAND BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING. IN
FACT BY 24 HOURS LATER ANOTHER REX PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP IN
THE WEST AS MODELS DO CLOSE A LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUIET WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW OUT WEST PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
NOT HOLDING ONTO MY HAT ON ANY SOLUTION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF
LATE...BUT POPS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS
AND DID NOT MAKE CHANGES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH LESS MOSITURE AROUND...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET...OTHERWISE NO
AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED -TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SW COLORADO. ONLY A FEW OR
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 162340
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
540 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITION TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH KGJT PWAT AT
0.66 INCHES AND LITTLE CHANGE PREDICTED. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
GOOD SURFACE HEATING ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ODILE WAS MOVING ONSHORE OVER NW MEXICO AND APPEARS WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE CO AND UT WED AND THU. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD NORTH
OF ODILE IS RIDGING NORTH FROM NM AND AZ AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
ACROSS SW CO AND SE UT TONIGHT AND WED.

A LARGE RIDGE IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 500
MB RIDGELINE SHOULD BE OVER THE CO AND UT BORDER ABOUT 00Z THU AND
REACH CENTRAL CO BY THU 12Z. THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGELINE
WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVER UT AND
CO WED AND WED NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA FOR THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD EDGING NORTH FROM
AZ AND NM...WHILE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CONFIDENCE WAS SHATTERED EARLIER THIS WEEK AS MID TO LATE TERM
MODELS WERE INCONSISTENT IN BOTH CONTINUITY AND TIMING IN DEALING
WITH ODILE AND THE PUSH INLAND OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. TODAY THINGS
ARE LOOKING MORE PEACHY AS BOTH ASPECTS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW APPEARS ODILE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE...CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND FORMING A REX TYPE
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PULLING A STRONG AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OR
SPREADING SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR CWA. PWAT THAT
WAS WELL OVER AN INCH A FEW DAYS AGO ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. CAN THIS CHANGE OR MODEL AGREEMENT FLIP
AGAIN...YES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TO TREND POPS AND ESPECIALLY QPF
DOWNWARD WITH THIS CONSENSUS. THERE WILL STILL BE THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY GONE BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
LIMITED. MID LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BE CATCHING THE
WESTERLIES. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE TROUGH IS PHASED AS IT MOVES
INLAND BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING. IN
FACT BY 24 HOURS LATER ANOTHER REX PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP IN
THE WEST AS MODELS DO CLOSE A LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUIET WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW OUT WEST PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
NOT HOLDING ONTO MY HAT ON ANY SOLUTION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF
LATE...BUT POPS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS
AND DID NOT MAKE CHANGES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH LESS MOSITURE AROUND...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET...OTHERWISE NO
AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED -TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SW COLORADO. ONLY A FEW OR
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 162131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITION TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH KGJT PWAT AT
0.66 INCHES AND LITTLE CHANGE PREDICTED. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
GOOD SURFACE HEATING ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ODILE WAS MOVING ONSHORE OVER NW MEXICO AND APPEARS WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE CO AND UT WED AND THU. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD NORTH
OF ODILE IS RIDGING NORTH FROM NM AND AZ AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
ACROSS SW CO AND SE UT TONIGHT AND WED.

A LARGE RIDGE IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 500
MB RIDGELINE SHOULD BE OVER THE CO AND UT BORDER ABOUT 00Z THU AND
REACH CENTRAL CO BY THU 12Z. THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGELINE
WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVER UT AND
CO WED AND WED NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA FOR THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD EDGING NORTH FROM
AZ AND NM...WHILE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CONFIDENCE WAS SHATTERED EARLIER THIS WEEK AS MID TO LATE TERM
MODELS WERE INCONSISTENT IN BOTH CONTINUITY AND TIMING IN DEALING
WITH ODILE AND THE PUSH INLAND OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. TODAY THINGS
ARE LOOKING MORE PEACHY AS BOTH ASPECTS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW APPEARS ODILE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE...CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND FORMING A REX TYPE
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PULLING A STRONG AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OR
SPREADING SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR CWA. PWAT THAT
WAS WELL OVER AN INCH A FEW DAYS AGO ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. CAN THIS CHANGE OR MODEL AGREEMENT FLIP
AGAIN...YES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TO TREND POPS AND ESPECIALLY QPF
DOWNWARD WITH THIS CONSENSUS. THERE WILL STILL BE THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY GONE BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
LIMITED. MID LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BE CATCHING THE
WESTERLIES. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE TROUGH IS PHASED AS IT MOVES
INLAND BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING. IN
FACT BY 24 HOURS LATER ANOTHER REX PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP IN
THE WEST AS MODELS DO CLOSE A LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUIET WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW OUT WEST PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
NOT HOLDING ONTO MY HAT ON ANY SOLUTION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF
LATE...BUT POPS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS
AND DID NOT MAKE CHANGES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH LESS MOSITURE AROUND...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNTIL ABOUT 02Z...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. KTEX AND KASE
HAVE ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY IN BRIEF HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MOUNTAINTOP
OBSCURATIONS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 40 MPH CLOSE TO THE
STRONGER CELLS...WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
SMALL HAIL. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 162131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITION TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH KGJT PWAT AT
0.66 INCHES AND LITTLE CHANGE PREDICTED. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
GOOD SURFACE HEATING ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ODILE WAS MOVING ONSHORE OVER NW MEXICO AND APPEARS WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE CO AND UT WED AND THU. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD NORTH
OF ODILE IS RIDGING NORTH FROM NM AND AZ AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
ACROSS SW CO AND SE UT TONIGHT AND WED.

A LARGE RIDGE IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 500
MB RIDGELINE SHOULD BE OVER THE CO AND UT BORDER ABOUT 00Z THU AND
REACH CENTRAL CO BY THU 12Z. THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGELINE
WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVER UT AND
CO WED AND WED NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA FOR THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD EDGING NORTH FROM
AZ AND NM...WHILE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CONFIDENCE WAS SHATTERED EARLIER THIS WEEK AS MID TO LATE TERM
MODELS WERE INCONSISTENT IN BOTH CONTINUITY AND TIMING IN DEALING
WITH ODILE AND THE PUSH INLAND OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. TODAY THINGS
ARE LOOKING MORE PEACHY AS BOTH ASPECTS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW APPEARS ODILE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE...CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND FORMING A REX TYPE
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PULLING A STRONG AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OR
SPREADING SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR CWA. PWAT THAT
WAS WELL OVER AN INCH A FEW DAYS AGO ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. CAN THIS CHANGE OR MODEL AGREEMENT FLIP
AGAIN...YES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TO TREND POPS AND ESPECIALLY QPF
DOWNWARD WITH THIS CONSENSUS. THERE WILL STILL BE THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY GONE BUT COVERAGE APPEARS
LIMITED. MID LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BE CATCHING THE
WESTERLIES. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE TROUGH IS PHASED AS IT MOVES
INLAND BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING. IN
FACT BY 24 HOURS LATER ANOTHER REX PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP IN
THE WEST AS MODELS DO CLOSE A LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUIET WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW OUT WEST PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
NOT HOLDING ONTO MY HAT ON ANY SOLUTION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF
LATE...BUT POPS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS
AND DID NOT MAKE CHANGES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH LESS MOSITURE AROUND...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNTIL ABOUT 02Z...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. KTEX AND KASE
HAVE ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY IN BRIEF HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MOUNTAINTOP
OBSCURATIONS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 40 MPH CLOSE TO THE
STRONGER CELLS...WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
SMALL HAIL. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 162124
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
324 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES NORTH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 162124
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
324 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES NORTH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KBOU 162003 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
141 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR FROM LATE DAY CONVECTION WOULD
BE IN ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
WEATHER WILL BE THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MOS SUGGESTING WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE 86-91F RANGE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED BUT NOT
BROKEN.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CO MAKING ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BUT CHANGE TO A MORE WSW FLOW BY 06Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF BY SAT MORNING HELPING TO
TURN THE FLOW MORE ZONAL BY 06Z SAT. WEAK MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER CO THURSDAY MORNING TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE PARK
COUNTY AREA. DOWNWARD MOTION DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH WEAK ASCENT
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND 80S FRIDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT OVER NE
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT
GET THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF TS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM DOMINATING  SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS BREAKS
IT DOWN MONDAY WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEPS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LATE-
DAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
NO IMPACT EXPECTED IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 162003 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
141 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR FROM LATE DAY CONVECTION WOULD
BE IN ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
WEATHER WILL BE THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MOS SUGGESTING WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE 86-91F RANGE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED BUT NOT
BROKEN.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CO MAKING ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BUT CHANGE TO A MORE WSW FLOW BY 06Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF BY SAT MORNING HELPING TO
TURN THE FLOW MORE ZONAL BY 06Z SAT. WEAK MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER CO THURSDAY MORNING TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE PARK
COUNTY AREA. DOWNWARD MOTION DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH WEAK ASCENT
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND 80S FRIDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT OVER NE
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT
GET THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF TS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM DOMINATING  SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS BREAKS
IT DOWN MONDAY WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEPS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LATE-
DAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
NO IMPACT EXPECTED IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 161941
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
141 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR FROM LATE DAY CONVECTION WOULD
BE IN ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
WEATHER WILL BE THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MOS SUGGESTING WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE 86-91F RANGE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED BUT NOT
BROKEN.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CO MAKING ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BUT CHANGE TO A MORE WSW FLOW BY 06Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF BY SAT MORNING HELPING TO
TURN THE FLOW MORE ZONAL BY 06Z SAT. WEAK MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER CO THURSDAY MORNING TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE PARK
COUNTY AREA. DOWNWARD MOTION DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH WEAK ASCENT
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND 80S FRIDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT OVER NE
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT
GET THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF TS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM DOMINATING  SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS BREAKS
IT DOWN MONDAY WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEPS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LATE-
DAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
NO IMPACT EXPECTED IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 161941
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
141 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR FROM LATE DAY CONVECTION WOULD
BE IN ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
WEATHER WILL BE THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MOS SUGGESTING WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE 86-91F RANGE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED BUT NOT
BROKEN.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CO MAKING ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BUT CHANGE TO A MORE WSW FLOW BY 06Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF BY SAT MORNING HELPING TO
TURN THE FLOW MORE ZONAL BY 06Z SAT. WEAK MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER CO THURSDAY MORNING TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE PARK
COUNTY AREA. DOWNWARD MOTION DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH WEAK ASCENT
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND 80S FRIDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT OVER NE
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT
GET THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF TS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM DOMINATING  SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS BREAKS
IT DOWN MONDAY WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEPS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LATE-
DAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
NO IMPACT EXPECTED IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 161941
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
141 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR FROM LATE DAY CONVECTION WOULD
BE IN ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
WEATHER WILL BE THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MOS SUGGESTING WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE 86-91F RANGE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED BUT NOT
BROKEN.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CO MAKING ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BUT CHANGE TO A MORE WSW FLOW BY 06Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF BY SAT MORNING HELPING TO
TURN THE FLOW MORE ZONAL BY 06Z SAT. WEAK MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER CO THURSDAY MORNING TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE PARK
COUNTY AREA. DOWNWARD MOTION DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH WEAK ASCENT
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND 80S FRIDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT OVER NE
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT
GET THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF TS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM DOMINATING  SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS BREAKS
IT DOWN MONDAY WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEPS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LATE-
DAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
NO IMPACT EXPECTED IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 161941
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
141 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
THE LITTLE RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR FROM LATE DAY CONVECTION WOULD
BE IN ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
WEATHER WILL BE THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MOS SUGGESTING WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE 86-91F RANGE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IT APPEARS RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED BUT NOT
BROKEN.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CO MAKING ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BUT CHANGE TO A MORE WSW FLOW BY 06Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF BY SAT MORNING HELPING TO
TURN THE FLOW MORE ZONAL BY 06Z SAT. WEAK MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY AROUND THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER CO THURSDAY MORNING TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE PARK
COUNTY AREA. DOWNWARD MOTION DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH WEAK ASCENT
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND 80S FRIDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT OVER NE
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT
GET THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF TS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM DOMINATING  SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS BREAKS
IT DOWN MONDAY WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEPS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LATE-
DAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
NO IMPACT EXPECTED IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 161735
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1135 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES TO MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONVER MOST OF THE AREA THRU TONIGHT.  SOME
WEAK INFLUX ON MONSOON MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF I-70 WHERE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE.  850-700 MB TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH AFTN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO AND IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIODS. THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
CWA BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING ZONAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS WEAK DOWNWARD IN NATURE WEDNESDAY WELL INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING WEAK UPWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLIES ARE PROGGED FOR ALL THE CWA. FOR MOISTURE...ALL
THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S F...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA
LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...PRETTY LOW VALUES HOWEVER EXCEPT THE FAR
EASTERN BORDER...WHERE THE GFS HAS SOME HIGHER NUMBERS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CAPE ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OTHERWISE THINGS ARE DRY
THROUGH THE PERIODS. WILL GO WITH VERY LIMITED POPS AND THEN ONLY
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE 1-3 C WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY`S HIGHS MAY BE
0-1 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE REMAINS OF ODILE IS PROGGED
TO BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING
AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS BETTER
FOR THE FOUR DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES TO MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161706
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO DEPICT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES
NORTH. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161706
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO DEPICT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES
NORTH. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KGJT 161619
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1019 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY UNDER WNW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 NEAR DEEPER MOISTURE GRADIENT
POOLING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AS BLOW OFF
FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES WORKING NORTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MINIMAL ACTIVITY INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

THE LIMITED CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OVER THE
AREA EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA...MUCH OF IT ORIGINATING FROM
HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM ODILE...WILL CONTINUE TO LAP AT OUR
SOUTHERN EDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN EDGE INTO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE ISOLATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ODILE`S DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO CARRY MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE INCREASING TREND FOR
POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BUT HAVE MODIFIED THE AREAL COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT...AND REDUCED THE HIGHEST POPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SPREAD INTO THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL REMAINS IN THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE AT BEST OVER THE FAVORED
SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH LESS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS KICK THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS DRIVING THE CUTTING OFF
LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WEST OF SAN DIEGO...WHILE THE GFS SENDS A
FILLING SYSTEM INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATER SCENARIO WOULD
INCREASE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE EC SOLUTION KEEPS US ON THE DRY
SIDE. ATTM...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS...TAPERING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM AND ADJUSTMENTS AND FURTHER
FINE TUNING WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BASED ON WINNING MODEL SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL RUN WITH PERSISTENCE EARLY ON...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL
COOLING TREND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM ABOUT 20Z TO 02Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. KTEX
AND KASE HAVE ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY IN BRIEF
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MOUNTAINTOP
OBSCURATIONS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 40 MPH CLOSE TO THE
STRONGER CELLS...WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
SMALL HAIL.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/EH
LONG TERM...EH/JDC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161120
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO DEPICT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE NOTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DISSIPATING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN
ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  FOR THE  KALS
TAF SITE...PROJECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161120
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO DEPICT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE NOTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DISSIPATING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN
ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  FOR THE  KALS
TAF SITE...PROJECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 161020
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE NOTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DISSIPATING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN
ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  FOR THE  KALS
TAF SITE...PROJECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 161020
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE NOTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DISSIPATING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN
ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  FOR THE  KALS
TAF SITE...PROJECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KGJT 160953
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
353 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY UNDER WNW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 NEAR DEEPER MOISTURE GRADIENT
POOLING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AS BLOW OFF
FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES WORKING NORTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MINIMAL ACTIVITY INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

THE LIMITED CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OVER THE
AREA EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA...MUCH OF IT ORIGINATING FROM
HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM ODILE...WILL CONTINUE TO LAP AT OUR
SOUTHERN EDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN EDGE INTO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE ISOLATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ODILE`S DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO CARRY MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE INCREASING TREND FOR
POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BUT HAVE MODIFIED THE AREAL COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT...AND REDUCED THE HIGHEST POPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SPREAD INTO THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL REMAINS IN THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE AT BEST OVER THE FAVORED
SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH LESS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS KICK THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ALONG
HTE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS DRIVING THE CUTTING OFF
LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WEST OF SAN DIEGO...WHILE THE GFS SENDS A
FILLING SYSTEM INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATER SCENARIO WOULD
INCREASE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE EC SOLUTION KEEPS US ON THE DRY
SIDE. ATTM...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS...TAPERING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM AND ADJUSTMENTS AND FURTHER
FINE TUNING WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BASED ON WINNING MODEL SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL RUN WITH PERSISTENCE EARLY ON...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL
COOLING TREND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE TO AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS. MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AS STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/EH
LONG TERM...EH/JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 160953
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
353 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY UNDER WNW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 NEAR DEEPER MOISTURE GRADIENT
POOLING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AS BLOW OFF
FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES WORKING NORTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MINIMAL ACTIVITY INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

THE LIMITED CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OVER THE
AREA EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA...MUCH OF IT ORIGINATING FROM
HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM ODILE...WILL CONTINUE TO LAP AT OUR
SOUTHERN EDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN EDGE INTO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE ISOLATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ODILE`S DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO CARRY MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE INCREASING TREND FOR
POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BUT HAVE MODIFIED THE AREAL COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT...AND REDUCED THE HIGHEST POPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SPREAD INTO THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL REMAINS IN THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE AT BEST OVER THE FAVORED
SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH LESS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS KICK THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ALONG
HTE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS DRIVING THE CUTTING OFF
LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WEST OF SAN DIEGO...WHILE THE GFS SENDS A
FILLING SYSTEM INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATER SCENARIO WOULD
INCREASE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE EC SOLUTION KEEPS US ON THE DRY
SIDE. ATTM...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS...TAPERING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM AND ADJUSTMENTS AND FURTHER
FINE TUNING WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BASED ON WINNING MODEL SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL RUN WITH PERSISTENCE EARLY ON...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL
COOLING TREND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE TO AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS. MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AS STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/EH
LONG TERM...EH/JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KBOU 160856
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
256 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONVER MOST OF THE AREA THRU TONIGHT.  SOME
WEAK INFLUX ON MONSOON MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF I-70 WHERE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE.  850-700 MB TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH AFTN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO AND IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIODS. THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
CWA BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING ZONAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS WEAK DOWNWARD IN NATURE WEDNESDAY WELL INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING WEAK UPWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLIES ARE PROGGED FOR ALL THE CWA. FOR MOISTURE...ALL
THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S F...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA
LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...PRETTY LOW VALUES HOWEVER EXCEPT THE FAR
EASTERN BORDER...WHERE THE GFS HAS SOME HIGHER NUMBERS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CAPE ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OTHERWISE THINGS ARE DRY
THROUGH THE PERIODS. WILL GO WITH VERY LIMITED POPS AND THEN ONLY
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE 1-3 C WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY`S HIGHS MAY BE
0-1 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE REMAINS OF ODILE IS PROGGED
TO BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING
AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS BETTER
FOR THE FOUR DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR FOR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN BECOME LIGHT NLY BY 17Z AND THEN MORE ENE BY 20Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME DRAINAGE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 160856
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
256 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONVER MOST OF THE AREA THRU TONIGHT.  SOME
WEAK INFLUX ON MONSOON MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF I-70 WHERE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE.  850-700 MB TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH AFTN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO AND IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIODS. THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
CWA BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING ZONAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS WEAK DOWNWARD IN NATURE WEDNESDAY WELL INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING WEAK UPWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLIES ARE PROGGED FOR ALL THE CWA. FOR MOISTURE...ALL
THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S F...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA
LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...PRETTY LOW VALUES HOWEVER EXCEPT THE FAR
EASTERN BORDER...WHERE THE GFS HAS SOME HIGHER NUMBERS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CAPE ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OTHERWISE THINGS ARE DRY
THROUGH THE PERIODS. WILL GO WITH VERY LIMITED POPS AND THEN ONLY
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE 1-3 C WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY`S HIGHS MAY BE
0-1 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE REMAINS OF ODILE IS PROGGED
TO BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING
AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS BETTER
FOR THE FOUR DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR FOR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN BECOME LIGHT NLY BY 17Z AND THEN MORE ENE BY 20Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME DRAINAGE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 160856
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
256 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONVER MOST OF THE AREA THRU TONIGHT.  SOME
WEAK INFLUX ON MONSOON MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF I-70 WHERE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE.  850-700 MB TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH AFTN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO AND IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIODS. THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
CWA BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING ZONAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS WEAK DOWNWARD IN NATURE WEDNESDAY WELL INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING WEAK UPWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLIES ARE PROGGED FOR ALL THE CWA. FOR MOISTURE...ALL
THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S F...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA
LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...PRETTY LOW VALUES HOWEVER EXCEPT THE FAR
EASTERN BORDER...WHERE THE GFS HAS SOME HIGHER NUMBERS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CAPE ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OTHERWISE THINGS ARE DRY
THROUGH THE PERIODS. WILL GO WITH VERY LIMITED POPS AND THEN ONLY
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE 1-3 C WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY`S HIGHS MAY BE
0-1 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE REMAINS OF ODILE IS PROGGED
TO BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING
AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS BETTER
FOR THE FOUR DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR FOR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN BECOME LIGHT NLY BY 17Z AND THEN MORE ENE BY 20Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME DRAINAGE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 160856
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
256 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONVER MOST OF THE AREA THRU TONIGHT.  SOME
WEAK INFLUX ON MONSOON MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF I-70 WHERE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE.  850-700 MB TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH AFTN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO AND IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIODS. THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
CWA BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING ZONAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS WEAK DOWNWARD IN NATURE WEDNESDAY WELL INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING WEAK UPWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLIES ARE PROGGED FOR ALL THE CWA. FOR MOISTURE...ALL
THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S F...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA
LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...PRETTY LOW VALUES HOWEVER EXCEPT THE FAR
EASTERN BORDER...WHERE THE GFS HAS SOME HIGHER NUMBERS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CAPE ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA LATE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OTHERWISE THINGS ARE DRY
THROUGH THE PERIODS. WILL GO WITH VERY LIMITED POPS AND THEN ONLY
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE 1-3 C WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY`S HIGHS MAY BE
0-1 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE REMAINS OF ODILE IS PROGGED
TO BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING
AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS BETTER
FOR THE FOUR DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR FOR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN BECOME LIGHT NLY BY 17Z AND THEN MORE ENE BY 20Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME DRAINAGE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KPUB 160549
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST
GRIDS.  ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER/FOG COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PLAINS. ALREADY
PRESENT OVER KCOS WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET. PATCHY STRATUS OVER
KPUB SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW 1000 FEET.
ALSO INCREASING FOG AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE MOST AREAS BY 16Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND PAST 16Z
IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 160549
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST
GRIDS.  ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER/FOG COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PLAINS. ALREADY
PRESENT OVER KCOS WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET. PATCHY STRATUS OVER
KPUB SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW 1000 FEET.
ALSO INCREASING FOG AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE MOST AREAS BY 16Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND PAST 16Z
IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 160535
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PLAINS. ALREADY
PRESENT OVER KCOS WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET. PATCHY STRATUS OVER
KPUB SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW 1000 FEET.
ALSO INCREASING FOG AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE MOST AREAS BY 16Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND PAST 16Z
IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KGJT 160506
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1106 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS HINT THAT MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO
RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING. THIS IS NOT A
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE SURGE...BUT APPEARS THAT OUTFLOWS FROM SPOTTY
STORMS OVER NW NEW MEXICO (SSE GUSTY WIND AT FARMINGTON) GETS
INTO LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. THE HRRR DEPICTS SPOTTY
LIGHT PCPN OVERNIGHT...SO ELECTED TO GO THE "ISOLATED" ROUTE
INSTEAD OF "SCATTERED". FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS DISSIPATING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE FAR WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS RIDGE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN
AN EXPANSIVE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM. LOWER DOWN A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT
STALLING NEAR THE TX/OX/NM BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER JET
MAX HAS SHIFTING EAST AND WITH MINIMAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER
OUR CWA...THE CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ALONG THE TAVAPUTS/ROAN PLATEAU AND FLAT TOPS.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. STRONG EML
SUGGEST WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT. BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS MAY FORCE
A SHOWER INTO A VALLEY BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR WITH CURRENT 88D TRENDS IS THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN
FOOTHILLS AND HAVE PUSHED POPS TO ISOLATED THERE AS WELL.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AND LIMITED CONVECTION AGAIN AS THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION OR A POSSIBLE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES LOOKS TO
BULGE OVER THE LOWER DIVIDE IN NEW MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW POINTED TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
CEZ/DRO/PSO. ATTM MODELS SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS DO NOT SHOW
STRATUS BUILDING IN...BUT THIS MOISTURE MAY SERVE TO FUEL A BIT
MORE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS AS MOUNTAIN
CIRCULATIONS LIFT THE MOISTURE UP THE SLOPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...CREATING A VERY WARM AND
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES
AND 1.0 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE NM/CO
BORDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE STAY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE DETAILS ON ACTUAL DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK ARE STILL VERY FUZZY WITH FORECAST MODELS SWITCHING
SOLUTIONS ALMOST EVERY CONSECUTIVE RUN. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXACT THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE THINKING THAT THIS COULD REALLY FUEL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ADDED BENEFIT OF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL ACTIVITY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE VICINITY
OF KTEX...KASE AND KDRO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 160506
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1106 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS HINT THAT MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO
RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING. THIS IS NOT A
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE SURGE...BUT APPEARS THAT OUTFLOWS FROM SPOTTY
STORMS OVER NW NEW MEXICO (SSE GUSTY WIND AT FARMINGTON) GETS
INTO LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. THE HRRR DEPICTS SPOTTY
LIGHT PCPN OVERNIGHT...SO ELECTED TO GO THE "ISOLATED" ROUTE
INSTEAD OF "SCATTERED". FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS DISSIPATING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE FAR WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS RIDGE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN
AN EXPANSIVE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM. LOWER DOWN A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT
STALLING NEAR THE TX/OX/NM BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER JET
MAX HAS SHIFTING EAST AND WITH MINIMAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER
OUR CWA...THE CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ALONG THE TAVAPUTS/ROAN PLATEAU AND FLAT TOPS.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. STRONG EML
SUGGEST WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT. BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS MAY FORCE
A SHOWER INTO A VALLEY BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR WITH CURRENT 88D TRENDS IS THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN
FOOTHILLS AND HAVE PUSHED POPS TO ISOLATED THERE AS WELL.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AND LIMITED CONVECTION AGAIN AS THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION OR A POSSIBLE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES LOOKS TO
BULGE OVER THE LOWER DIVIDE IN NEW MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW POINTED TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
CEZ/DRO/PSO. ATTM MODELS SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS DO NOT SHOW
STRATUS BUILDING IN...BUT THIS MOISTURE MAY SERVE TO FUEL A BIT
MORE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS AS MOUNTAIN
CIRCULATIONS LIFT THE MOISTURE UP THE SLOPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...CREATING A VERY WARM AND
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES
AND 1.0 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE NM/CO
BORDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE STAY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE DETAILS ON ACTUAL DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK ARE STILL VERY FUZZY WITH FORECAST MODELS SWITCHING
SOLUTIONS ALMOST EVERY CONSECUTIVE RUN. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXACT THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE THINKING THAT THIS COULD REALLY FUEL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ADDED BENEFIT OF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL ACTIVITY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE VICINITY
OF KTEX...KASE AND KDRO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 160320
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
920 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS HINT THAT MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO
RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING. THIS IS NOT A
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE SURGE...BUT APPEARS THAT OUTFLOWS FROM SPOTTY
STORMS OVER NW NEW MEXICO (SSE GUSTY WIND AT FARMINGTON) GETS
INTO LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. THE HRRR DEPICTS SPOTTY
LIGHT PCPN OVERNIGHT...SO ELECTED TO GO THE "ISOLATED" ROUTE
INSTEAD OF "SCATTERED". FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS DISSIPATING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE FAR WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS RIDGE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN
AN EXPANSIVE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM. LOWER DOWN A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT
STALLING NEAR THE TX/OX/NM BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER JET
MAX HAS SHIFTING EAST AND WITH MINIMAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER
OUR CWA...THE CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ALONG THE TAVAPUTS/ROAN PLATEAU AND FLAT TOPS.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. STRONG EML
SUGGEST WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT. BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS MAY FORCE
A SHOWER INTO A VALLEY BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR WITH CURRENT 88D TRENDS IS THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN
FOOTHILLS AND HAVE PUSHED POPS TO ISOLATED THERE AS WELL.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AND LIMITED CONVECTION AGAIN AS THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION OR A POSSIBLE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES LOOKS TO
BULGE OVER THE LOWER DIVIDE IN NEW MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW POINTED TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
CEZ/DRO/PSO. ATTM MODELS SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS DO NOT SHOW
STRATUS BUILDING IN...BUT THIS MOISTURE MAY SERVE TO FUEL A BIT
MORE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS AS MOUNTAIN
CIRCULATIONS LIFT THE MOISTURE UP THE SLOPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...CREATING A VERY WARM AND
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES
AND 1.0 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE NM/CO
BORDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE STAY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE DETAILS ON ACTUAL DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK ARE STILL VERY FUZZY WITH FORECAST MODELS SWITCHING
SOLUTIONS ALMOST EVERY CONSECUTIVE RUN. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXACT THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE THINKING THAT THIS COULD REALLY FUEL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ADDED BENEFIT OF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL ACTIVITY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST TRENDS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE ANY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS ENDING OVER WRN COLORADO. ELSEWHERE...
NO OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AND COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND KDRO.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KBOU 160249
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
849 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT AND HAVE
REMOVED FROM EVENING FORECAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER/FOG OVERNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. STATUS ALREADY COVERS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND JUST INCHING INTO LINCOLN COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT AT A BIT OF THE STRATUS FOG
WRAPPING UP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES
SO THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER
LINCOLN COUNTY. STRATUS ALREADY IN FORECAST...CURRENT AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED BACK IN
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS BOTH
HINTING OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
FOG TO DEVELOP...BUT STILL HAVE HIGH HUMIDITY EXPECTED...SO KEPT
THE COVERAGE TO PATCHY INSTEAD OF AREAS OF OR WIDESPREAD FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS BY EVENING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE. WILL
PROBABLY SEE A DENVER CYCLONE SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
IS FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE PLAINS IS MORE
STABLE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL HAVE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EVEN LESS ON TUESDAY AS LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE LOWER TUESDAY THAN TODAY. AFTERNOON CU NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CIRRUS MAY DECREASE
SOLAR INPUT A LITTLE BUT EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE US WILL BE OVER
CO ON WED AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IT
MOVES EAST. THERE IS ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A POSSIBLE WAVE CLOUD SET-UP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE THAT WILL ADVECT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE. SOME LIGHT MOISTURE WILL HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR..WHICH WILL HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW DIPPING INTO THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BRINGING IN SOME LL MOISTURE BUT
SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED SO LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WED AND THU OVER NE COLORADO AS RIDGING
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN STABILIZING AND HEATING.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWER 80S OUT ON
THE PLAINS.

BY THU AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE STARTED TO MOVE
EAST WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE MOVES IN FROM THE SW. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO
THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE
DIVERGED A BIT WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FRONT PROGGED TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC MOVE THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ODILE NNE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS INCREASED AND DEEPENED THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM UNLIKE THE EC WHICH KEEPS IT MORE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S BUT TIMING WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SAT. ON SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL ADVECT INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO REBOUND BACK
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE VCNTY OF KDEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST AND
SOUTH OF DENVER AND MORE NORTHWEST WEST OF DIA AND TOWARDS BJC.
SURFACE TROF SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER TERMINALS. THE HRR HINTS AT POSSIBLE FOG AT DEN LATER
TNT BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TNT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 160249
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
849 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT AND HAVE
REMOVED FROM EVENING FORECAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER/FOG OVERNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. STATUS ALREADY COVERS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND JUST INCHING INTO LINCOLN COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT AT A BIT OF THE STRATUS FOG
WRAPPING UP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES
SO THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER
LINCOLN COUNTY. STRATUS ALREADY IN FORECAST...CURRENT AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED BACK IN
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS BOTH
HINTING OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
FOG TO DEVELOP...BUT STILL HAVE HIGH HUMIDITY EXPECTED...SO KEPT
THE COVERAGE TO PATCHY INSTEAD OF AREAS OF OR WIDESPREAD FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS BY EVENING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE. WILL
PROBABLY SEE A DENVER CYCLONE SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
IS FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE PLAINS IS MORE
STABLE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL HAVE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EVEN LESS ON TUESDAY AS LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE LOWER TUESDAY THAN TODAY. AFTERNOON CU NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CIRRUS MAY DECREASE
SOLAR INPUT A LITTLE BUT EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE US WILL BE OVER
CO ON WED AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IT
MOVES EAST. THERE IS ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A POSSIBLE WAVE CLOUD SET-UP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE THAT WILL ADVECT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE. SOME LIGHT MOISTURE WILL HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR..WHICH WILL HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW DIPPING INTO THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BRINGING IN SOME LL MOISTURE BUT
SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED SO LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WED AND THU OVER NE COLORADO AS RIDGING
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN STABILIZING AND HEATING.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWER 80S OUT ON
THE PLAINS.

BY THU AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE STARTED TO MOVE
EAST WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE MOVES IN FROM THE SW. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO
THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE
DIVERGED A BIT WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FRONT PROGGED TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC MOVE THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ODILE NNE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS INCREASED AND DEEPENED THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM UNLIKE THE EC WHICH KEEPS IT MORE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S BUT TIMING WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SAT. ON SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL ADVECT INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO REBOUND BACK
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE VCNTY OF KDEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST AND
SOUTH OF DENVER AND MORE NORTHWEST WEST OF DIA AND TOWARDS BJC.
SURFACE TROF SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER TERMINALS. THE HRR HINTS AT POSSIBLE FOG AT DEN LATER
TNT BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TNT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 160026
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
626 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE FAR WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS RIDGE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN
AN EXPANSIVE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM. LOWER DOWN A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT
STALLING NEAR THE TX/OX/NM BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER JET
MAX HAS SHIFTING EAST AND WITH MINIMAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER
OUR CWA...THE CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ALONG THE TAVAPUTS/ROAN PLATEAU AND FLAT TOPS.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. STRONG EML
SUGGEST WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT. BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS MAY FORCE
A SHOWER INTO A VALLEY BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR WITH CURRENT 88D TRENDS IS THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN
FOOTHILLS AND HAVE PUSHED POPS TO ISOLATED THERE AS WELL.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AND LIMITED CONVECTION AGAIN AS THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION OR A POSSIBLE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES LOOKS TO
BULGE OVER THE LOWER DIVIDE IN NEW MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW POINTED TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
CEZ/DRO/PSO. ATTM MODELS SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS DO NOT SHOW
STRATUS BUILDING IN...BUT THIS MOISTURE MAY SERVE TO FUEL A BIT
MORE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS AS MOUNTAIN
CIRCULATIONS LIFT THE MOISTURE UP THE SLOPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...CREATING A VERY WARM AND
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES
AND 1.0 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE NM/CO
BORDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE STAY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE DETAILS ON ACTUAL DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK ARE STILL VERY FUZZY WITH FORECAST MODELS SWITCHING
SOLUTIONS ALMOST EVERY CONSECUTIVE RUN. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXACT THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE THINKING THAT THIS COULD REALLY FUEL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ADDED BENEFIT OF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL ACTIVITY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST TRENDS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE ANY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS ENDING OVER WRN COLORADO. ELSEWHERE...
NO OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AND COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND KDRO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 160026
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
626 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE FAR WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS RIDGE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN
AN EXPANSIVE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM. LOWER DOWN A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT
STALLING NEAR THE TX/OX/NM BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER JET
MAX HAS SHIFTING EAST AND WITH MINIMAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER
OUR CWA...THE CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ALONG THE TAVAPUTS/ROAN PLATEAU AND FLAT TOPS.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. STRONG EML
SUGGEST WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT. BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS MAY FORCE
A SHOWER INTO A VALLEY BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR WITH CURRENT 88D TRENDS IS THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN
FOOTHILLS AND HAVE PUSHED POPS TO ISOLATED THERE AS WELL.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AND LIMITED CONVECTION AGAIN AS THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION OR A POSSIBLE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES LOOKS TO
BULGE OVER THE LOWER DIVIDE IN NEW MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW POINTED TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
CEZ/DRO/PSO. ATTM MODELS SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS DO NOT SHOW
STRATUS BUILDING IN...BUT THIS MOISTURE MAY SERVE TO FUEL A BIT
MORE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS AS MOUNTAIN
CIRCULATIONS LIFT THE MOISTURE UP THE SLOPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...CREATING A VERY WARM AND
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES
AND 1.0 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE NM/CO
BORDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE STAY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE DETAILS ON ACTUAL DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK ARE STILL VERY FUZZY WITH FORECAST MODELS SWITCHING
SOLUTIONS ALMOST EVERY CONSECUTIVE RUN. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXACT THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE THINKING THAT THIS COULD REALLY FUEL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ADDED BENEFIT OF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL ACTIVITY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST TRENDS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE ANY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS ENDING OVER WRN COLORADO. ELSEWHERE...
NO OTHER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AND COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND KDRO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KBOU 160015
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
615 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER
LINCOLN COUNTY. STRATUS ALREADY IN FORECAST...CURRENT AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED BACK IN
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS BOTH
HINTING OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
FOG TO DEVELOP...BUT STILL HAVE HIGH HUMIDITY EXPECTED...SO KEPT
THE COVERAGE TO PATCHY INSTEAD OF AREAS OF OR WIDESPREAD FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS BY EVENING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE. WILL
PROBABLY SEE A DENVER CYCLONE SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
IS FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE PLAINS IS MORE
STABLE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL HAVE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EVEN LESS ON TUESDAY AS LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE LOWER TUESDAY THAN TODAY. AFTERNOON CU NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CIRRUS MAY DECREASE
SOLAR INPUT A LITTLE BUT EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE US WILL BE OVER
CO ON WED AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IT
MOVES EAST. THERE IS ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A POSSIBLE WAVE CLOUD SET-UP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE THAT WILL ADVECT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE. SOME LIGHT MOISTURE WILL HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR..WHICH WILL HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW DIPPING INTO THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BRINGING IN SOME LL MOISTURE BUT
SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED SO LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WED AND THU OVER NE COLORADO AS RIDGING
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN STABILIZING AND HEATING.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWER 80S OUT ON
THE PLAINS.

BY THU AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE STARTED TO MOVE
EAST WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE MOVES IN FROM THE SW. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO
THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE
DIVERGED A BIT WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FRONT PROGGED TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC MOVE THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ODILE NNE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS INCREASED AND DEEPENED THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM UNLIKE THE EC WHICH KEEPS IT MORE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S BUT TIMING WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SAT. ON SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL ADVECT INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO REBOUND BACK
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY STAY IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, AND LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THE DENVER AREA AIRPORTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS. A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN THE WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND FOLLOW THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF SWITCHING AROUND
TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 160015
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
615 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER
LINCOLN COUNTY. STRATUS ALREADY IN FORECAST...CURRENT AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED BACK IN
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS BOTH
HINTING OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
FOG TO DEVELOP...BUT STILL HAVE HIGH HUMIDITY EXPECTED...SO KEPT
THE COVERAGE TO PATCHY INSTEAD OF AREAS OF OR WIDESPREAD FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS BY EVENING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE. WILL
PROBABLY SEE A DENVER CYCLONE SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
IS FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE PLAINS IS MORE
STABLE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL HAVE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EVEN LESS ON TUESDAY AS LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE LOWER TUESDAY THAN TODAY. AFTERNOON CU NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CIRRUS MAY DECREASE
SOLAR INPUT A LITTLE BUT EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE US WILL BE OVER
CO ON WED AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IT
MOVES EAST. THERE IS ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A POSSIBLE WAVE CLOUD SET-UP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE THAT WILL ADVECT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE. SOME LIGHT MOISTURE WILL HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR..WHICH WILL HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW DIPPING INTO THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BRINGING IN SOME LL MOISTURE BUT
SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED SO LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WED AND THU OVER NE COLORADO AS RIDGING
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN STABILIZING AND HEATING.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWER 80S OUT ON
THE PLAINS.

BY THU AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE STARTED TO MOVE
EAST WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE MOVES IN FROM THE SW. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO
THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE
DIVERGED A BIT WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FRONT PROGGED TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC MOVE THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ODILE NNE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS INCREASED AND DEEPENED THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM UNLIKE THE EC WHICH KEEPS IT MORE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S BUT TIMING WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SAT. ON SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL ADVECT INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO REBOUND BACK
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY STAY IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, AND LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THE DENVER AREA AIRPORTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS. A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN THE WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND FOLLOW THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF SWITCHING AROUND
TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 152115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THEM AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLOWLY BACKING WEST
INTO THE AREA. PATCHY STRATUS OVER KPUB SHOULD THICKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS FALLING TO AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
TONIGHT.  STRATUS IS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING INTO THE KCOS REGION.
CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BRING THE STRATUS IN AROUND 00Z/TUES WITH
1500 TO 2000 FOOT CIGS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
ALSO DEVELOP AREAS OF FOG IN AND AROUND KPUB AND KCOS AFTER 06Z/TUES
AND DISSIPATING IT BY 16Z/TUES.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL...AS IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE TAFS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 152115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THEM AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLOWLY BACKING WEST
INTO THE AREA. PATCHY STRATUS OVER KPUB SHOULD THICKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS FALLING TO AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
TONIGHT.  STRATUS IS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING INTO THE KCOS REGION.
CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BRING THE STRATUS IN AROUND 00Z/TUES WITH
1500 TO 2000 FOOT CIGS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
ALSO DEVELOP AREAS OF FOG IN AND AROUND KPUB AND KCOS AFTER 06Z/TUES
AND DISSIPATING IT BY 16Z/TUES.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL...AS IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE TAFS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 152115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THEM AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLOWLY BACKING WEST
INTO THE AREA. PATCHY STRATUS OVER KPUB SHOULD THICKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS FALLING TO AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
TONIGHT.  STRATUS IS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING INTO THE KCOS REGION.
CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BRING THE STRATUS IN AROUND 00Z/TUES WITH
1500 TO 2000 FOOT CIGS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
ALSO DEVELOP AREAS OF FOG IN AND AROUND KPUB AND KCOS AFTER 06Z/TUES
AND DISSIPATING IT BY 16Z/TUES.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL...AS IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE TAFS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 152115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THEM AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLOWLY BACKING WEST
INTO THE AREA. PATCHY STRATUS OVER KPUB SHOULD THICKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS FALLING TO AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
TONIGHT.  STRATUS IS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING INTO THE KCOS REGION.
CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BRING THE STRATUS IN AROUND 00Z/TUES WITH
1500 TO 2000 FOOT CIGS OVERNIGHT.  THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
ALSO DEVELOP AREAS OF FOG IN AND AROUND KPUB AND KCOS AFTER 06Z/TUES
AND DISSIPATING IT BY 16Z/TUES.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL...AS IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE TAFS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 152059
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
259 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE FAR WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS RIDGE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN
AN EXPANSIVE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM. LOWER DOWN A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT
STALLING NEAR THE TX/OX/NM BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER JET
MAX HAS SHIFTING EAST AND WITH MINIMAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER
OUR CWA...THE CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ALONG THE TAVAPUTS/ROAN PLATEAU AND FLAT TOPS.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. STRONG EML
SUGGEST WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT. BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS MAY FORCE
A SHOWER INTO A VALLEY BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR WITH CURRENT 88D TRENDS IS THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN
FOOTHILLS AND HAVE PUSHED POPS TO ISOLATED THERE AS WELL.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AND LIMITED CONVECTION AGAIN AS THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION OR A POSSIBLE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES LOOKS TO
BULGE OVER THE LOWER DIVIDE IN NEW MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW POINTED TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
CEZ/DRO/PSO. ATTM MODELS SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS DO NOT SHOW
STRATUS BUILDING IN...BUT THIS MOISTURE MAY SERVE TO FUEL A BIT
MORE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS AS MOUNTAIN
CIRCULATIONS LIFT THE MOISTURE UP THE SLOPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...CREATING A VERY WARM AND
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES
AND 1.0 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE NM/CO
BORDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE STAY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE DETAILS ON ACTUAL DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK ARE STILL VERY FUZZY WITH FORECAST MODELS SWITCHING
SOLUTIONS ALMOST EVERY CONSECUTIVE RUN. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXACT THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE THINKING THAT THIS COULD REALLY FUEL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ADDED BENEFIT OF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL ACTIVITY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL STAY IN CONTROL AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND BIT MORE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS TODAY...THAN DAYS PAST. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR TOWARD THE
SURFACE. BECAUSE COVERAGE WILL STILL BE ON THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SIDE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MANY TAF SITES
TO FORECAST THESE WINDS GUSTS BUT WILL USE AMENDMENTS AS
NECESSARY. PATCHY OBSCURATION OF THE TERRAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE
PEAK CONVECTION PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONLY THE HIGHEST
PEAKS APPEAR TO BE AFFECTED.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 152059
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
259 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE FAR WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS RIDGE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN
AN EXPANSIVE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM. LOWER DOWN A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT
STALLING NEAR THE TX/OX/NM BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER JET
MAX HAS SHIFTING EAST AND WITH MINIMAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER
OUR CWA...THE CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ALONG THE TAVAPUTS/ROAN PLATEAU AND FLAT TOPS.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. STRONG EML
SUGGEST WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT. BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS MAY FORCE
A SHOWER INTO A VALLEY BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR WITH CURRENT 88D TRENDS IS THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN
FOOTHILLS AND HAVE PUSHED POPS TO ISOLATED THERE AS WELL.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AND LIMITED CONVECTION AGAIN AS THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION OR A POSSIBLE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES LOOKS TO
BULGE OVER THE LOWER DIVIDE IN NEW MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW POINTED TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
CEZ/DRO/PSO. ATTM MODELS SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS DO NOT SHOW
STRATUS BUILDING IN...BUT THIS MOISTURE MAY SERVE TO FUEL A BIT
MORE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS AS MOUNTAIN
CIRCULATIONS LIFT THE MOISTURE UP THE SLOPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY...CREATING A VERY WARM AND
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES
AND 1.0 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE NM/CO
BORDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE STAY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE DETAILS ON ACTUAL DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK ARE STILL VERY FUZZY WITH FORECAST MODELS SWITCHING
SOLUTIONS ALMOST EVERY CONSECUTIVE RUN. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXACT THREAT AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE THINKING THAT THIS COULD REALLY FUEL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ADDED BENEFIT OF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL ACTIVITY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL STAY IN CONTROL AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND BIT MORE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS TODAY...THAN DAYS PAST. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR TOWARD THE
SURFACE. BECAUSE COVERAGE WILL STILL BE ON THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SIDE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MANY TAF SITES
TO FORECAST THESE WINDS GUSTS BUT WILL USE AMENDMENTS AS
NECESSARY. PATCHY OBSCURATION OF THE TERRAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE
PEAK CONVECTION PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONLY THE HIGHEST
PEAKS APPEAR TO BE AFFECTED.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KBOU 152004
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
204 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS BY EVENING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE. WILL
PROBABLY SEE A DENVER CYCLONE SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
IS FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE PLAINS IS MORE
STABLE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL HAVE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EVEN LESS ON TUESDAY AS LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE LOWER TUESDAY THAN TODAY. AFTERNOON CU NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CIRRUS MAY DECREASE
SOLAR INPUT A LITTLE BUT EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE US WILL BE OVER
CO ON WED AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IT
MOVES EAST. THERE IS ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A POSSIBLE WAVE CLOUD SET-UP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE THAT WILL ADVECT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE. SOME LIGHT MOISTURE WILL HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR..WHICH WILL HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW DIPPING INTO THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BRINGING IN SOME LL MOISTURE BUT
SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED SO LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WED AND THU OVER NE COLORADO AS RIDGING
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN STABILIZING AND HEATING.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWER 80S OUT ON
THE PLAINS.

BY THU AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE STARTED TO MOVE
EAST WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE MOVES IN FROM THE SW. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO
THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE
DIVERGED A BIT WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FRONT PROGGED TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC MOVE THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ODILE NNE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS INCREASED AND DEEPENED THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM UNLIKE THE EC WHICH KEEPS IT MORE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S BUT TIMING WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SAT. ON SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL ADVECT INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO REBOUND BACK
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY STAY IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, AND LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THE DENVER AREA AIRPORTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS. A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN THE WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND FOLLOW THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF SWITCHING AROUND
THE THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 152004
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
204 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS BY EVENING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE. WILL
PROBABLY SEE A DENVER CYCLONE SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
IS FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE PLAINS IS MORE
STABLE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL HAVE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EVEN LESS ON TUESDAY AS LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE LOWER TUESDAY THAN TODAY. AFTERNOON CU NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CIRRUS MAY DECREASE
SOLAR INPUT A LITTLE BUT EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE US WILL BE OVER
CO ON WED AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IT
MOVES EAST. THERE IS ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A POSSIBLE WAVE CLOUD SET-UP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE THAT WILL ADVECT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE. SOME LIGHT MOISTURE WILL HANG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR..WHICH WILL HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW DIPPING INTO THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BRINGING IN SOME LL MOISTURE BUT
SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED SO LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WED AND THU OVER NE COLORADO AS RIDGING
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN STABILIZING AND HEATING.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWER 80S OUT ON
THE PLAINS.

BY THU AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE STARTED TO MOVE
EAST WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE MOVES IN FROM THE SW. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO
THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE
DIVERGED A BIT WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FRONT PROGGED TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC MOVE THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ODILE NNE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS INCREASED AND DEEPENED THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM UNLIKE THE EC WHICH KEEPS IT MORE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S BUT TIMING WILL
DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SAT. ON SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL ADVECT INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO REBOUND BACK
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY STAY IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, AND LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THE CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THE DENVER AREA AIRPORTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS. A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN THE WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND FOLLOW THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF SWITCHING AROUND
THE THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 151716
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
CREEP WESTWARD THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT THIS
TIME. HAVE A FEELING STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY
NOON AND BANK UP ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PLAYED WITH TEMPERATURES AS WELL...LOCATIONS OUT
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER ARE PRETTY SOCKED IN...AND DO NOT THINK WE
WILL SEE MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TEMPERATURE RISE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS THERE WITH LOWER
60S. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST
OF STRATUS DECK WITH UPPER 60S. EXPECT A FEW MORE DEGREES OF
WARMING BEFORE THE STRATUS FILLS IN WESTWARD...SO WARMED THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THERE HAS BEEN A
LACK OF ECHOES ON RADAR AND NO OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING
RAINFALL OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. DO THINK UPGLIDE AND
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 09Z...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 15Z.  LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LIKELY TO SEE CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOP BY 15Z-17Z.  THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...AIDED BY UPSLOPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
PALMER...AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER.  FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT.  WILL CARRY SOME LOW END ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CO TODAY.  MODELS HINT AT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE BACK OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST CO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WY/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WITH
BOTH OF THESE LOOKS WEAK...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERSELLING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE PAST FEW DAYS.  WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN LOOKING RATHER HIGH BASED.  FOR THE PLAINS...ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOKING VERY CAPPED.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY QUICKLY AS THEY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE COOLER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  KEPT TEMPERATURES TODAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S READINGS
OUT WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...WHATEVER BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUING DURING THE EVENING. LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND
STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT.  KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A MORE ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED PRIMARILY
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGING PATTERN.

UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED BEGINNING
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
INTERACTS WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IS ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA
BURN SCARS AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR MID
TO LATE SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK STEERING
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THEM AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLOWLY BACKING
WEST INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IT
SHOULD REACH KPUB BY 18Z AND THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. STRATUS IS
HAVING A HARD TIME ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT. HAVE STRATUS BACKING INTO KCOS BY 21Z WITH CIGS
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 151716
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
CREEP WESTWARD THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT THIS
TIME. HAVE A FEELING STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY
NOON AND BANK UP ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PLAYED WITH TEMPERATURES AS WELL...LOCATIONS OUT
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER ARE PRETTY SOCKED IN...AND DO NOT THINK WE
WILL SEE MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TEMPERATURE RISE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS THERE WITH LOWER
60S. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST
OF STRATUS DECK WITH UPPER 60S. EXPECT A FEW MORE DEGREES OF
WARMING BEFORE THE STRATUS FILLS IN WESTWARD...SO WARMED THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THERE HAS BEEN A
LACK OF ECHOES ON RADAR AND NO OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING
RAINFALL OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. DO THINK UPGLIDE AND
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 09Z...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 15Z.  LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LIKELY TO SEE CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOP BY 15Z-17Z.  THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...AIDED BY UPSLOPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
PALMER...AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER.  FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT.  WILL CARRY SOME LOW END ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CO TODAY.  MODELS HINT AT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE BACK OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST CO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WY/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WITH
BOTH OF THESE LOOKS WEAK...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERSELLING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE PAST FEW DAYS.  WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN LOOKING RATHER HIGH BASED.  FOR THE PLAINS...ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOKING VERY CAPPED.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY QUICKLY AS THEY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE COOLER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  KEPT TEMPERATURES TODAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S READINGS
OUT WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...WHATEVER BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUING DURING THE EVENING. LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND
STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT.  KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A MORE ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED PRIMARILY
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGING PATTERN.

UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED BEGINNING
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
INTERACTS WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IS ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA
BURN SCARS AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR MID
TO LATE SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK STEERING
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THEM AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLOWLY BACKING
WEST INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IT
SHOULD REACH KPUB BY 18Z AND THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. STRATUS IS
HAVING A HARD TIME ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT. HAVE STRATUS BACKING INTO KCOS BY 21Z WITH CIGS
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KGJT 151650
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1050 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

12Z KGJT SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE SITTING ON TOP OF STRONG EML.
ACCAS CONFIRMS THERE IS ALSO INSTABILITY IN THIS MOISTURE LAYER AS
WELL. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND THOUGH MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED ECHOS ON RADAR. QUICK LOOK AT MODELS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PASSING JET ENERGY MAY BE HELPING POP
THE CONVECTION AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A SLOW INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS RAISING PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS BY
ABOUT 0.10 INCHES. MODELS SUGGEST A SIMILAR INCREASE TODAY AS
MOISTURE FLOWS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SUBCLOUD MOISTURE LACKING SO
EXPECT STORMS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT PRODUCING WIND THAN RAIN. SAN
JUANS APPEAR FAVORED GIVEN WEAK JET DIVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

MOST DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.
BUT MARGINAL MOISTURE LINGERS UP TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTION THERE COULD KEEP ISOLATED STORMS GOING
BEYOND MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN.
CLOUDS AND WIND COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER
THAN WE SAW LATE LAST WEEK.

THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY PUTTING THIS
FORECAST AREA IN A LIGHT AND SUBSIDENT NW FLOW ALOFT. WARMER THAN
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BATTLE WITH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THAT SHOULD END QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TO LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT BACKS TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. LOW GRADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BATTLE
BETWEEN GOOD SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO OUR SW.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE FROM ODILE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH
A NOW WEAKER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY...STORMS LIKELY
TO BE MORE SCATTERED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST MOISTURE
BECOMES AVAILABLE ON FRIDAY AS PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSES OFF NEAR
KSFO. LOW CENTER NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDING TO
THE ECMWF WHILE THE GFS40 BRINGS IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS IS
THE WETTER SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS INDICATED AN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEEKEND AHEAD IN GENERAL WITH DETAILS A BIT
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL STAY IN CONTROL AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND BIT MORE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS TODAY...THAN DAYS PAST. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR TOWARD THE
SURFACE. BECAUSE COVERAGE WILL STILL BE ON THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SIDE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MANY TAF SITES
TO FORECAST THESE WINDS GUSTS BUT WILL USE AMENDMENTS AS
NECESSARY. PATCHY OBSCURATION OF THE TERRAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE
PEAK CONVECTION PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONLY THE HIGHEST
PEAKS APPEAR TO BE AFFECTED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...NL/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/NL
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KBOU 151520
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
920 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE WEST
INTO THE FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE STRATUS, BUT THE WEST EDGE IS ERODING AT ALMOST THE SAME PACE.
THE DISSIPATION OF STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY MIDDAY.
THEREFORE ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE TO REDUCE COVERAGE A
FEW HOURS SOONER ALONG WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDES OF LOW CLOUD
SHIELD. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DEVELOPMENT OF DENVER CYCLONE PATTERN IN THE
SURFACE WINDS STILL LOOKS GOOD. DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS OR QPF.
STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO LIMTED SURFACE
HEATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS DECK HAS ACTUALLY ERODED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE EAST WITH A
SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK SEEN IN THE
KFTG VAD WIND PROFILER. STILL WAITING FOR A TURN TO MORE EASTERLY
BUT STRATUS WILL ALSO BE TRYING TO ERODE FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...BUT
STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE FURTHER EROSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS EXTENT OF STRATUS AND EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS A NARROW NOSE OF DRIER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WAS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN THE
BOULDER TO FORT COLLINS CORRIDOR. WHILE THE SURFACE FLOW COULD
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THIS AREA...THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE TURNING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAYBREAK ALLOWING
MORE STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FARTHER EAST...AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
CERTAINLY HARD TO PIN POINT ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT GAPS IN
STRATUS DECK. THIS COULD ALLOW EROSION FROM THE EDGES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AT THE SAME TIME AN INCREASING
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN DENVER CYCLONE REGIME WOULD REINFORCE
DEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTHWARD. WILL OPT FOR A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 70S WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA IF LATE DAY FLOW TURNS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY THERE.

ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY WHERE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR TO BREAK CAP. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN HIGHER MOISTURE AIR ON THE EAST AND DRIER BUT
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST. SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD
PUSH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BUT THEN DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OF THE
PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SWRN US ON TUE AND THEN WILL
EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO ON WED.  SOME LIMITED MID LVL
MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE MTNS BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLD AFTN STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY
BOTH DAYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
NERN CO ON TUE AS DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LVL WINDS DVLP.  ON WED BOTH THE
NAM AN ECMWF SHOW A WEAK SURGE AFFECTING THE FAR NERN PLAINS WHILE A
LEE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THUS MAY SEE SOME VARIANCE IN
AFTN HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHILE OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S.  MEANWHILE DECENT CAPE WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER
WHERE LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLS BEHIND THE WEAK BNDRY.  SOUNDINGS SHOW
AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS FOR NOW.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  AT THIS TIME THERE STILL IS NOT MUCH
TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SO WILL ONLY KEEP IN SOME
ISOLD STORMS IN THE MTNS.  AFTN HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO.  FOR FRI BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS EJECT THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
ENE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SERN CO.  IF IT TAKES THIS TRACK
THEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FM ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL AFFECT NRN CO
AS A COOL FNT MOVES ACROSS IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE MTNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF FNTL PASSAGE. IF FNT COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTN OR
EVENING HOURS THEN HIGHS MAY RISE BACK INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN
OVER NERN CO.

ON SAT NRN CO WILL BE IN WK NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NERN CO.  FOR NOW THE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN THE MTNS
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS OVER NERN CO.  THUS WILL KEEP A CHC OF STORMS
IN THE MTNS BUT KEEP NERN CO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT NR THE FOOTHILLS.
HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 70S OVER NERN CO.  FOR SUN A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP IN A
A CHC OF TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SELY WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LESS CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS BACKING INTO THE
FRONT RANGE BUT KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
BROKEN STRATUS THIS MORNING OUT NEAR DIA. KEPT THE PROGRESSION OF
WIND DIRECTION AROUND TO NORTHEAST AND THEN TO SOUTHEAST BUT HAVE
THE SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT AN
HOUR EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL PROBABLY SET UP A DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DIA BUT LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT BJC THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 151520
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
920 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE WEST
INTO THE FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE STRATUS, BUT THE WEST EDGE IS ERODING AT ALMOST THE SAME PACE.
THE DISSIPATION OF STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY MIDDAY.
THEREFORE ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE TO REDUCE COVERAGE A
FEW HOURS SOONER ALONG WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDES OF LOW CLOUD
SHIELD. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DEVELOPMENT OF DENVER CYCLONE PATTERN IN THE
SURFACE WINDS STILL LOOKS GOOD. DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS OR QPF.
STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO LIMTED SURFACE
HEATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS DECK HAS ACTUALLY ERODED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE EAST WITH A
SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK SEEN IN THE
KFTG VAD WIND PROFILER. STILL WAITING FOR A TURN TO MORE EASTERLY
BUT STRATUS WILL ALSO BE TRYING TO ERODE FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...BUT
STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE FURTHER EROSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS EXTENT OF STRATUS AND EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS A NARROW NOSE OF DRIER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WAS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN THE
BOULDER TO FORT COLLINS CORRIDOR. WHILE THE SURFACE FLOW COULD
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THIS AREA...THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE TURNING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAYBREAK ALLOWING
MORE STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FARTHER EAST...AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
CERTAINLY HARD TO PIN POINT ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT GAPS IN
STRATUS DECK. THIS COULD ALLOW EROSION FROM THE EDGES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AT THE SAME TIME AN INCREASING
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN DENVER CYCLONE REGIME WOULD REINFORCE
DEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTHWARD. WILL OPT FOR A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 70S WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA IF LATE DAY FLOW TURNS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY THERE.

ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY WHERE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR TO BREAK CAP. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN HIGHER MOISTURE AIR ON THE EAST AND DRIER BUT
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST. SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD
PUSH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BUT THEN DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OF THE
PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SWRN US ON TUE AND THEN WILL
EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO ON WED.  SOME LIMITED MID LVL
MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE MTNS BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLD AFTN STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY
BOTH DAYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
NERN CO ON TUE AS DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LVL WINDS DVLP.  ON WED BOTH THE
NAM AN ECMWF SHOW A WEAK SURGE AFFECTING THE FAR NERN PLAINS WHILE A
LEE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THUS MAY SEE SOME VARIANCE IN
AFTN HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHILE OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S.  MEANWHILE DECENT CAPE WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER
WHERE LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLS BEHIND THE WEAK BNDRY.  SOUNDINGS SHOW
AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS FOR NOW.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  AT THIS TIME THERE STILL IS NOT MUCH
TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SO WILL ONLY KEEP IN SOME
ISOLD STORMS IN THE MTNS.  AFTN HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO.  FOR FRI BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS EJECT THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
ENE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SERN CO.  IF IT TAKES THIS TRACK
THEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FM ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL AFFECT NRN CO
AS A COOL FNT MOVES ACROSS IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE MTNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF FNTL PASSAGE. IF FNT COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTN OR
EVENING HOURS THEN HIGHS MAY RISE BACK INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN
OVER NERN CO.

ON SAT NRN CO WILL BE IN WK NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NERN CO.  FOR NOW THE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN THE MTNS
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS OVER NERN CO.  THUS WILL KEEP A CHC OF STORMS
IN THE MTNS BUT KEEP NERN CO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT NR THE FOOTHILLS.
HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 70S OVER NERN CO.  FOR SUN A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP IN A
A CHC OF TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SELY WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LESS CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS BACKING INTO THE
FRONT RANGE BUT KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
BROKEN STRATUS THIS MORNING OUT NEAR DIA. KEPT THE PROGRESSION OF
WIND DIRECTION AROUND TO NORTHEAST AND THEN TO SOUTHEAST BUT HAVE
THE SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT AN
HOUR EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL PROBABLY SET UP A DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DIA BUT LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT BJC THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 151520
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
920 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE WEST
INTO THE FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE STRATUS, BUT THE WEST EDGE IS ERODING AT ALMOST THE SAME PACE.
THE DISSIPATION OF STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY MIDDAY.
THEREFORE ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE TO REDUCE COVERAGE A
FEW HOURS SOONER ALONG WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDES OF LOW CLOUD
SHIELD. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DEVELOPMENT OF DENVER CYCLONE PATTERN IN THE
SURFACE WINDS STILL LOOKS GOOD. DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS OR QPF.
STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO LIMTED SURFACE
HEATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS DECK HAS ACTUALLY ERODED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE EAST WITH A
SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK SEEN IN THE
KFTG VAD WIND PROFILER. STILL WAITING FOR A TURN TO MORE EASTERLY
BUT STRATUS WILL ALSO BE TRYING TO ERODE FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...BUT
STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE FURTHER EROSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS EXTENT OF STRATUS AND EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS A NARROW NOSE OF DRIER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WAS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN THE
BOULDER TO FORT COLLINS CORRIDOR. WHILE THE SURFACE FLOW COULD
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THIS AREA...THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE TURNING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAYBREAK ALLOWING
MORE STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FARTHER EAST...AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
CERTAINLY HARD TO PIN POINT ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT GAPS IN
STRATUS DECK. THIS COULD ALLOW EROSION FROM THE EDGES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AT THE SAME TIME AN INCREASING
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN DENVER CYCLONE REGIME WOULD REINFORCE
DEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTHWARD. WILL OPT FOR A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 70S WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA IF LATE DAY FLOW TURNS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY THERE.

ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY WHERE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR TO BREAK CAP. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN HIGHER MOISTURE AIR ON THE EAST AND DRIER BUT
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST. SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD
PUSH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BUT THEN DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OF THE
PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SWRN US ON TUE AND THEN WILL
EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO ON WED.  SOME LIMITED MID LVL
MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE MTNS BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLD AFTN STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY
BOTH DAYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
NERN CO ON TUE AS DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LVL WINDS DVLP.  ON WED BOTH THE
NAM AN ECMWF SHOW A WEAK SURGE AFFECTING THE FAR NERN PLAINS WHILE A
LEE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THUS MAY SEE SOME VARIANCE IN
AFTN HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHILE OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S.  MEANWHILE DECENT CAPE WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER
WHERE LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLS BEHIND THE WEAK BNDRY.  SOUNDINGS SHOW
AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS FOR NOW.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  AT THIS TIME THERE STILL IS NOT MUCH
TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SO WILL ONLY KEEP IN SOME
ISOLD STORMS IN THE MTNS.  AFTN HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO.  FOR FRI BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS EJECT THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
ENE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SERN CO.  IF IT TAKES THIS TRACK
THEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FM ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL AFFECT NRN CO
AS A COOL FNT MOVES ACROSS IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE MTNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF FNTL PASSAGE. IF FNT COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTN OR
EVENING HOURS THEN HIGHS MAY RISE BACK INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN
OVER NERN CO.

ON SAT NRN CO WILL BE IN WK NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NERN CO.  FOR NOW THE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN THE MTNS
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS OVER NERN CO.  THUS WILL KEEP A CHC OF STORMS
IN THE MTNS BUT KEEP NERN CO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT NR THE FOOTHILLS.
HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 70S OVER NERN CO.  FOR SUN A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP IN A
A CHC OF TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SELY WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LESS CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS BACKING INTO THE
FRONT RANGE BUT KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
BROKEN STRATUS THIS MORNING OUT NEAR DIA. KEPT THE PROGRESSION OF
WIND DIRECTION AROUND TO NORTHEAST AND THEN TO SOUTHEAST BUT HAVE
THE SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT AN
HOUR EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL PROBABLY SET UP A DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DIA BUT LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT BJC THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 151520
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
920 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE WEST
INTO THE FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE STRATUS, BUT THE WEST EDGE IS ERODING AT ALMOST THE SAME PACE.
THE DISSIPATION OF STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY MIDDAY.
THEREFORE ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE TO REDUCE COVERAGE A
FEW HOURS SOONER ALONG WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDES OF LOW CLOUD
SHIELD. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DEVELOPMENT OF DENVER CYCLONE PATTERN IN THE
SURFACE WINDS STILL LOOKS GOOD. DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS OR QPF.
STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO LIMTED SURFACE
HEATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS DECK HAS ACTUALLY ERODED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE EAST WITH A
SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK SEEN IN THE
KFTG VAD WIND PROFILER. STILL WAITING FOR A TURN TO MORE EASTERLY
BUT STRATUS WILL ALSO BE TRYING TO ERODE FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...BUT
STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE FURTHER EROSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS EXTENT OF STRATUS AND EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS A NARROW NOSE OF DRIER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WAS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN THE
BOULDER TO FORT COLLINS CORRIDOR. WHILE THE SURFACE FLOW COULD
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THIS AREA...THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE TURNING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAYBREAK ALLOWING
MORE STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FARTHER EAST...AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
CERTAINLY HARD TO PIN POINT ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT GAPS IN
STRATUS DECK. THIS COULD ALLOW EROSION FROM THE EDGES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AT THE SAME TIME AN INCREASING
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN DENVER CYCLONE REGIME WOULD REINFORCE
DEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTHWARD. WILL OPT FOR A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 70S WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA IF LATE DAY FLOW TURNS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY THERE.

ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY WHERE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR TO BREAK CAP. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN HIGHER MOISTURE AIR ON THE EAST AND DRIER BUT
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST. SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD
PUSH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BUT THEN DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OF THE
PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SWRN US ON TUE AND THEN WILL
EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO ON WED.  SOME LIMITED MID LVL
MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE MTNS BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLD AFTN STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY
BOTH DAYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
NERN CO ON TUE AS DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LVL WINDS DVLP.  ON WED BOTH THE
NAM AN ECMWF SHOW A WEAK SURGE AFFECTING THE FAR NERN PLAINS WHILE A
LEE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THUS MAY SEE SOME VARIANCE IN
AFTN HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHILE OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S.  MEANWHILE DECENT CAPE WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER
WHERE LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLS BEHIND THE WEAK BNDRY.  SOUNDINGS SHOW
AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS FOR NOW.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  AT THIS TIME THERE STILL IS NOT MUCH
TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SO WILL ONLY KEEP IN SOME
ISOLD STORMS IN THE MTNS.  AFTN HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO.  FOR FRI BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS EJECT THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
ENE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SERN CO.  IF IT TAKES THIS TRACK
THEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FM ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL AFFECT NRN CO
AS A COOL FNT MOVES ACROSS IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE MTNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF FNTL PASSAGE. IF FNT COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTN OR
EVENING HOURS THEN HIGHS MAY RISE BACK INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN
OVER NERN CO.

ON SAT NRN CO WILL BE IN WK NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NERN CO.  FOR NOW THE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN THE MTNS
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS OVER NERN CO.  THUS WILL KEEP A CHC OF STORMS
IN THE MTNS BUT KEEP NERN CO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT NR THE FOOTHILLS.
HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 70S OVER NERN CO.  FOR SUN A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP IN A
A CHC OF TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SELY WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LESS CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS BACKING INTO THE
FRONT RANGE BUT KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
BROKEN STRATUS THIS MORNING OUT NEAR DIA. KEPT THE PROGRESSION OF
WIND DIRECTION AROUND TO NORTHEAST AND THEN TO SOUTHEAST BUT HAVE
THE SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT AN
HOUR EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL PROBABLY SET UP A DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DIA BUT LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT BJC THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD/KELSCH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 151344
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
744 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

12Z KGJT SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE SITTING ON TOP OF STRONG EML.
ACCAS CONFIRMS THERE IS ALSO INSTABILITY IN THIS MOISTURE LAYER AS
WELL. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND THOUGH MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED ECHOS ON RADAR. QUICK LOOK AT MODELS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PASSING JET ENERGY MAY BE HELPING POP
THE CONVECTION AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A SLOW INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS RAISING PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS BY
ABOUT 0.10 INCHES. MODELS SUGGEST A SIMILAR INCREASE TODAY AS
MOISTURE FLOWS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SUBCLOUD MOISTURE LACKING SO
EXPECT STORMS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT PRODUCING WIND THAN RAIN. SAN
JUANS APPEAR FAVORED GIVEN WEAK JET DIVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

MOST DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.
BUT MARGINAL MOISTURE LINGERS UP TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTION THERE COULD KEEP ISOLATED STORMS GOING
BEYOND MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN.
CLOUDS AND WIND COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER
THAN WE SAW LATE LAST WEEK.

THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY PUTTING THIS
FORECAST AREA IN A LIGHT AND SUBSIDENT NW FLOW ALOFT. WARMER THAN
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BATTLE WITH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THAT SHOULD END QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TO LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT BACKS TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. LOW GRADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BATTLE
BETWEEN GOOD SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO OUR SW.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE FROM ODILE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH
A NOW WEAKER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY...STORMS LIKELY
TO BE MORE SCATTERED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST MOISTURE
BECOMES AVAILABLE ON FRIDAY AS PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSES OFF NEAR
KSFO. LOW CENTER NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDING TO
THE ECMWF WHILE THE GFS40 BRINGS IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS IS
THE WETTER SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS INDICATED AN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEEKEND AHEAD IN GENERAL WITH DETAILS A BIT
SKETCHY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z/MON AND WILL GO TO BE BY
02Z/TUES. STORMS WILL BRING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. KRIL...KEGE...KASE...AND KTEX ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS
OVER SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...NL/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KBOU 151252
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
652 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS DECK HAS ACTUALLY ERODED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE EAST WITH A
SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK SEEN IN THE
KFTG VAD WIND PROFILER. STILL WAITING FOR A TURN TO MORE EASTERLY
BUT STRATUS WILL ALSO BE TRYING TO ERODE FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...BUT
STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE FURTHER EROSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS EXTENT OF STRATUS AND EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS A NARROW NOSE OF DRIER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WAS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN THE
BOULDER TO FORT COLLINS CORRIDOR. WHILE THE SURFACE FLOW COULD
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THIS AREA...THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE TURNING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAYBREAK ALLOWING
MORE STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FARTHER EAST...AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
CERTAINLY HARD TO PIN POINT ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT GAPS IN
STRATUS DECK. THIS COULD ALLOW EROSION FROM THE EDGES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AT THE SAME TIME AN INCREASING
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN DENVER CYCLONE REGIME WOULD REINFORCE
DEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTHWARD. WILL OPT FOR A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 70S WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA IF LATE DAY FLOW TURNS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY THERE.

ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY WHERE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR TO BREAK CAP. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN HIGHER MOISTURE AIR ON THE EAST AND DRIER BUT
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST. SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD
PUSH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BUT THEN DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OF THE
PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SWRN US ON TUE AND THEN WILL
EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO ON WED.  SOME LIMITED MID LVL
MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE MTNS BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLD AFTN STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY
BOTH DAYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
NERN CO ON TUE AS DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LVL WINDS DVLP.  ON WED BOTH THE
NAM AN ECMWF SHOW A WEAK SURGE AFFECTING THE FAR NERN PLAINS WHILE A
LEE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THUS MAY SEE SOME VARIANCE IN
AFTN HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHILE OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S.  MEANWHILE DECENT CAPE WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER
WHERE LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLS BEHIND THE WEAK BNDRY.  SOUNDINGS SHOW
AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS FOR NOW.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  AT THIS TIME THERE STILL IS NOT MUCH
TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SO WILL ONLY KEEP IN SOME
ISOLD STORMS IN THE MTNS.  AFTN HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO.  FOR FRI BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS EJECT THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
ENE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SERN CO.  IF IT TAKES THIS TRACK
THEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FM ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL AFFECT NRN CO
AS A COOL FNT MOVES ACROSS IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE MTNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF FNTL PASSAGE. IF FNT COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTN OR
EVENING HOURS THEN HIGHS MAY RISE BACK INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN
OVER NERN CO.

ON SAT NRN CO WILL BE IN WK NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NERN CO.  FOR NOW THE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN THE MTNS
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS OVER NERN CO.  THUS WILL KEEP A CHC OF STORMS
IN THE MTNS BUT KEEP NERN CO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT NR THE FOOTHILLS.
HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 70S OVER NERN CO.  FOR SUN A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP IN A
A CHC OF TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SELY WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KDEN AND KAPA ARE ON THE EDGE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND STILL
UNCERTAIN IF/WHEN LOWER DECK WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT. THREAT OF
FOG IS ALSO DECREASING. WILL BE ADJUSTING ACCORDINGLY AS
SATELLITE/SHORT TERM TRENDS WARRANT TODAY. IF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS DO
COME BACK IN WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW...THEN SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
AGAIN 19Z-21Z. VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF A DENVER CYCLONE
HOLDING IN PLACE THOUGH OVERNIGHT GIVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 151252
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
652 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

STRATUS DECK HAS ACTUALLY ERODED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE EAST WITH A
SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST COMPONENT JUST OFF THE DECK SEEN IN THE
KFTG VAD WIND PROFILER. STILL WAITING FOR A TURN TO MORE EASTERLY
BUT STRATUS WILL ALSO BE TRYING TO ERODE FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...BUT
STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO FILL BACK IN ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE FURTHER EROSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS EXTENT OF STRATUS AND EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS A NARROW NOSE OF DRIER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WAS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN THE
BOULDER TO FORT COLLINS CORRIDOR. WHILE THE SURFACE FLOW COULD
REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THIS AREA...THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE TURNING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAYBREAK ALLOWING
MORE STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FARTHER EAST...AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
CERTAINLY HARD TO PIN POINT ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT GAPS IN
STRATUS DECK. THIS COULD ALLOW EROSION FROM THE EDGES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AT THE SAME TIME AN INCREASING
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN DENVER CYCLONE REGIME WOULD REINFORCE
DEVELOPMENT FROM DENVER NORTHWARD. WILL OPT FOR A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH LOWER TO MID 70S WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE. AT
THIS TIME THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA IF LATE DAY FLOW TURNS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY THERE.

ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY WHERE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR TO BREAK CAP. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN HIGHER MOISTURE AIR ON THE EAST AND DRIER BUT
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST. SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD
PUSH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BUT THEN DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OF THE
PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SWRN US ON TUE AND THEN WILL
EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO ON WED.  SOME LIMITED MID LVL
MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE MTNS BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLD AFTN STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY
BOTH DAYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
NERN CO ON TUE AS DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LVL WINDS DVLP.  ON WED BOTH THE
NAM AN ECMWF SHOW A WEAK SURGE AFFECTING THE FAR NERN PLAINS WHILE A
LEE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THUS MAY SEE SOME VARIANCE IN
AFTN HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHILE OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S.  MEANWHILE DECENT CAPE WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER
WHERE LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLS BEHIND THE WEAK BNDRY.  SOUNDINGS SHOW
AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS FOR NOW.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  AT THIS TIME THERE STILL IS NOT MUCH
TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SO WILL ONLY KEEP IN SOME
ISOLD STORMS IN THE MTNS.  AFTN HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO.  FOR FRI BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS EJECT THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
ENE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SERN CO.  IF IT TAKES THIS TRACK
THEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FM ODILE WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL AFFECT NRN CO
AS A COOL FNT MOVES ACROSS IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE MTNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF FNTL PASSAGE. IF FNT COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTN OR
EVENING HOURS THEN HIGHS MAY RISE BACK INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN
OVER NERN CO.

ON SAT NRN CO WILL BE IN WK NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NERN CO.  FOR NOW THE BEST MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE IN THE MTNS
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS OVER NERN CO.  THUS WILL KEEP A CHC OF STORMS
IN THE MTNS BUT KEEP NERN CO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT NR THE FOOTHILLS.
HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 70S OVER NERN CO.  FOR SUN A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE MTNS SO WILL KEEP IN A
A CHC OF TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SELY WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KDEN AND KAPA ARE ON THE EDGE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND STILL
UNCERTAIN IF/WHEN LOWER DECK WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT. THREAT OF
FOG IS ALSO DECREASING. WILL BE ADJUSTING ACCORDINGLY AS
SATELLITE/SHORT TERM TRENDS WARRANT TODAY. IF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS DO
COME BACK IN WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW...THEN SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
AGAIN 19Z-21Z. VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF A DENVER CYCLONE
HOLDING IN PLACE THOUGH OVERNIGHT GIVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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