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000
FXUS65 KPUB 181714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1014 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND OUT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ONCE THE STRATUS LIFTS...AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

KCOS...STRATUS IS CURRENTLY LIFTING AT KCOS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH 19Z WITH SCATTERED 2 KFT DECKS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING OVER EL
PASO COUNTY WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VIS AND CIGS. FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 181615
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
915 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE ADVISORIES THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MESA INTO THE
CENTRAL COLORADO HIGH MOUNTAINS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY. UPSTREAM ENERGY...PHASED FROM THE MORE
DEFINED SYSTEM IN ARIZONA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA. INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD DUMP A QUICK HALF
INCH BUT WITH COVERAGE LIMITED DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ATTM. FOG MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SO WILL BE MONITORING THIS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THOUGH RETURNS ON RADAR ARE WEAK AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LOW CLOUD TOPS...THE SNOW IS STILL FLYING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO. AT MIDNIGHT WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF AN ONGOING
GORGE EVENT WITH 7 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED IN THE GORGE ON HIGHWAY
550 JUST SOUTH OF OURAY BUT ONLY 3 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF THE GORGE
AREA AT RED MTN PASS. EXPECTING THIS EVENT WILL WRAP UP AROUND 6
OR 7AM AS NEGATIVE OMEGA SUPPORT SLIDES TO THE NORTH.

DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO A
MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
STILL REMAIN SHOWERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT HIGHER LOCATIONS. FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS RH REMAINS HIGH AND SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS A TOUGH TIME DRYING OUT WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GROUND SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT ON
FRIDAY DURING THE LULL OF ACTIVITY SO FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

PACIFIC ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SYSTEM IS UNORGANIZED AND WILL WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION...LIMITING POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE EXITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BRIEF BREAK AHEAD OF WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A LONG
DURATION...PERSISTENTLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENT THAT
STARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH SENDING A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING WAVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SLAMMING THIS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EXCEED 3 G/KG FOR A LARGE
DURATION WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT AS A 120+ JET DRIVES THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA. BASED ON CURRENT SET-UP IN THE MODELS...A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST PACIFIC FLOW AND VERY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS TO
BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL OVER A 2+ DAY PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO...WITH FOCUS
FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. STILL TIME TO WORK
OUT THE DETAILS...BUT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...AND THERE IS ALWAYS A HOWEVER...WAA COULD AND MOST
LIKELY WILL CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
VALUES...THUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE OVERBLOWN. WILL GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. EVEN WITH THAT
CONCERN...WILL STILL BE ISSUING AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING AS THIS
WILL BE A HEAVY TRAVEL WEEK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE LARGE
AS SNOWFALL MAY BE MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS SOME OF OUR
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE GFS GENERATING OVER 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY
MIDWEEK. EVEN HALF OF THAT AMOUNT WILL CAUSE IMPACTS ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PLANS. OTHER AREAS WILL GET INTO THE ACTION AS WELL...BUT
THE EMPHASIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ATTM.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLDER VALLEYS MIX
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AND THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY STORM...ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THIS STORM WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHEREAS THE GFS REMAINS MORE OPEN. EITHER
SOLUTION BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH THE EC MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW INTO THE VALLEYS. WILL JUST RAMP POPS UP FOR
NOW WITH A COOL DOWN IN TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN...SNOW...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MOUNTAINS REMAINING OBSCURED. ALL TERMINAL
SITES WILL BE IMPACTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE CAT THRESHOLDS
AT ALL SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 181615
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
915 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE ADVISORIES THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MESA INTO THE
CENTRAL COLORADO HIGH MOUNTAINS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY. UPSTREAM ENERGY...PHASED FROM THE MORE
DEFINED SYSTEM IN ARIZONA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA. INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD DUMP A QUICK HALF
INCH BUT WITH COVERAGE LIMITED DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ATTM. FOG MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SO WILL BE MONITORING THIS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THOUGH RETURNS ON RADAR ARE WEAK AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LOW CLOUD TOPS...THE SNOW IS STILL FLYING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO. AT MIDNIGHT WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF AN ONGOING
GORGE EVENT WITH 7 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED IN THE GORGE ON HIGHWAY
550 JUST SOUTH OF OURAY BUT ONLY 3 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF THE GORGE
AREA AT RED MTN PASS. EXPECTING THIS EVENT WILL WRAP UP AROUND 6
OR 7AM AS NEGATIVE OMEGA SUPPORT SLIDES TO THE NORTH.

DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO A
MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
STILL REMAIN SHOWERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT HIGHER LOCATIONS. FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS RH REMAINS HIGH AND SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS A TOUGH TIME DRYING OUT WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GROUND SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT ON
FRIDAY DURING THE LULL OF ACTIVITY SO FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

PACIFIC ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SYSTEM IS UNORGANIZED AND WILL WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION...LIMITING POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE EXITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BRIEF BREAK AHEAD OF WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A LONG
DURATION...PERSISTENTLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENT THAT
STARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH SENDING A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING WAVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SLAMMING THIS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EXCEED 3 G/KG FOR A LARGE
DURATION WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT AS A 120+ JET DRIVES THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA. BASED ON CURRENT SET-UP IN THE MODELS...A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST PACIFIC FLOW AND VERY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS TO
BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL OVER A 2+ DAY PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO...WITH FOCUS
FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. STILL TIME TO WORK
OUT THE DETAILS...BUT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...AND THERE IS ALWAYS A HOWEVER...WAA COULD AND MOST
LIKELY WILL CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
VALUES...THUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE OVERBLOWN. WILL GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. EVEN WITH THAT
CONCERN...WILL STILL BE ISSUING AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING AS THIS
WILL BE A HEAVY TRAVEL WEEK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE LARGE
AS SNOWFALL MAY BE MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS SOME OF OUR
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE GFS GENERATING OVER 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY
MIDWEEK. EVEN HALF OF THAT AMOUNT WILL CAUSE IMPACTS ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PLANS. OTHER AREAS WILL GET INTO THE ACTION AS WELL...BUT
THE EMPHASIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ATTM.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLDER VALLEYS MIX
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AND THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY STORM...ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THIS STORM WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHEREAS THE GFS REMAINS MORE OPEN. EITHER
SOLUTION BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH THE EC MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW INTO THE VALLEYS. WILL JUST RAMP POPS UP FOR
NOW WITH A COOL DOWN IN TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN...SNOW...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MOUNTAINS REMAINING OBSCURED. ALL TERMINAL
SITES WILL BE IMPACTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE CAT THRESHOLDS
AT ALL SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 181615
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
915 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE ADVISORIES THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MESA INTO THE
CENTRAL COLORADO HIGH MOUNTAINS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY. UPSTREAM ENERGY...PHASED FROM THE MORE
DEFINED SYSTEM IN ARIZONA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA. INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD DUMP A QUICK HALF
INCH BUT WITH COVERAGE LIMITED DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ATTM. FOG MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SO WILL BE MONITORING THIS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THOUGH RETURNS ON RADAR ARE WEAK AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LOW CLOUD TOPS...THE SNOW IS STILL FLYING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO. AT MIDNIGHT WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF AN ONGOING
GORGE EVENT WITH 7 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED IN THE GORGE ON HIGHWAY
550 JUST SOUTH OF OURAY BUT ONLY 3 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF THE GORGE
AREA AT RED MTN PASS. EXPECTING THIS EVENT WILL WRAP UP AROUND 6
OR 7AM AS NEGATIVE OMEGA SUPPORT SLIDES TO THE NORTH.

DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO A
MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
STILL REMAIN SHOWERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT HIGHER LOCATIONS. FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS RH REMAINS HIGH AND SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS A TOUGH TIME DRYING OUT WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GROUND SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT ON
FRIDAY DURING THE LULL OF ACTIVITY SO FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

PACIFIC ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SYSTEM IS UNORGANIZED AND WILL WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION...LIMITING POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE EXITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BRIEF BREAK AHEAD OF WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A LONG
DURATION...PERSISTENTLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENT THAT
STARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH SENDING A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING WAVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SLAMMING THIS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EXCEED 3 G/KG FOR A LARGE
DURATION WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT AS A 120+ JET DRIVES THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA. BASED ON CURRENT SET-UP IN THE MODELS...A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST PACIFIC FLOW AND VERY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS TO
BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL OVER A 2+ DAY PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO...WITH FOCUS
FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. STILL TIME TO WORK
OUT THE DETAILS...BUT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...AND THERE IS ALWAYS A HOWEVER...WAA COULD AND MOST
LIKELY WILL CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
VALUES...THUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE OVERBLOWN. WILL GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. EVEN WITH THAT
CONCERN...WILL STILL BE ISSUING AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING AS THIS
WILL BE A HEAVY TRAVEL WEEK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE LARGE
AS SNOWFALL MAY BE MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS SOME OF OUR
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE GFS GENERATING OVER 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY
MIDWEEK. EVEN HALF OF THAT AMOUNT WILL CAUSE IMPACTS ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PLANS. OTHER AREAS WILL GET INTO THE ACTION AS WELL...BUT
THE EMPHASIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ATTM.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLDER VALLEYS MIX
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AND THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY STORM...ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THIS STORM WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHEREAS THE GFS REMAINS MORE OPEN. EITHER
SOLUTION BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH THE EC MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW INTO THE VALLEYS. WILL JUST RAMP POPS UP FOR
NOW WITH A COOL DOWN IN TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN...SNOW...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MOUNTAINS REMAINING OBSCURED. ALL TERMINAL
SITES WILL BE IMPACTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE CAT THRESHOLDS
AT ALL SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 181615
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
915 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE ADVISORIES THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MESA INTO THE
CENTRAL COLORADO HIGH MOUNTAINS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY. UPSTREAM ENERGY...PHASED FROM THE MORE
DEFINED SYSTEM IN ARIZONA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA. INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD DUMP A QUICK HALF
INCH BUT WITH COVERAGE LIMITED DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ATTM. FOG MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SO WILL BE MONITORING THIS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THOUGH RETURNS ON RADAR ARE WEAK AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LOW CLOUD TOPS...THE SNOW IS STILL FLYING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO. AT MIDNIGHT WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF AN ONGOING
GORGE EVENT WITH 7 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED IN THE GORGE ON HIGHWAY
550 JUST SOUTH OF OURAY BUT ONLY 3 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF THE GORGE
AREA AT RED MTN PASS. EXPECTING THIS EVENT WILL WRAP UP AROUND 6
OR 7AM AS NEGATIVE OMEGA SUPPORT SLIDES TO THE NORTH.

DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO A
MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
STILL REMAIN SHOWERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT HIGHER LOCATIONS. FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS RH REMAINS HIGH AND SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS A TOUGH TIME DRYING OUT WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GROUND SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT ON
FRIDAY DURING THE LULL OF ACTIVITY SO FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

PACIFIC ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SYSTEM IS UNORGANIZED AND WILL WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION...LIMITING POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE EXITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BRIEF BREAK AHEAD OF WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A LONG
DURATION...PERSISTENTLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENT THAT
STARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH SENDING A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING WAVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SLAMMING THIS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EXCEED 3 G/KG FOR A LARGE
DURATION WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT AS A 120+ JET DRIVES THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA. BASED ON CURRENT SET-UP IN THE MODELS...A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST PACIFIC FLOW AND VERY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS TO
BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL OVER A 2+ DAY PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO...WITH FOCUS
FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. STILL TIME TO WORK
OUT THE DETAILS...BUT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...AND THERE IS ALWAYS A HOWEVER...WAA COULD AND MOST
LIKELY WILL CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
VALUES...THUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE OVERBLOWN. WILL GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. EVEN WITH THAT
CONCERN...WILL STILL BE ISSUING AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING AS THIS
WILL BE A HEAVY TRAVEL WEEK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE LARGE
AS SNOWFALL MAY BE MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS SOME OF OUR
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE GFS GENERATING OVER 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY
MIDWEEK. EVEN HALF OF THAT AMOUNT WILL CAUSE IMPACTS ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PLANS. OTHER AREAS WILL GET INTO THE ACTION AS WELL...BUT
THE EMPHASIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ATTM.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLDER VALLEYS MIX
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AND THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY STORM...ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THIS STORM WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHEREAS THE GFS REMAINS MORE OPEN. EITHER
SOLUTION BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH THE EC MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW INTO THE VALLEYS. WILL JUST RAMP POPS UP FOR
NOW WITH A COOL DOWN IN TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN...SNOW...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MOUNTAINS REMAINING OBSCURED. ALL TERMINAL
SITES WILL BE IMPACTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE CAT THRESHOLDS
AT ALL SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 181547
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
847 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR DIA BUT EXPECT THIS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE FOOTHILLS...GENERALLY SLGT
CHC...THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING WARMING OR
STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED TO REDUCE
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PATCHY FOG AT DIA SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RECOVER THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 17Z...THEN NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4-8 KNOT RANGE. NOTHING
MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 181547
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
847 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR DIA BUT EXPECT THIS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE FOOTHILLS...GENERALLY SLGT
CHC...THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING WARMING OR
STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED TO REDUCE
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

PATCHY FOG AT DIA SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RECOVER THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 17Z...THEN NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4-8 KNOT RANGE. NOTHING
MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND OUT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND OUT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 181350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND OUT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 181350
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND OUT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 181147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FIRST WAVE HAS EXITED EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
LARGELY DONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AHEAD OF THE NEXT PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AND IN PATCHY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF OUT WEST WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TODAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COLD SIDE.  AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS EVENING. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWATCH
RANGE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON
FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM
INDEPENDENCE PASS AND NORTHWARD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO COLORADO
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASED
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TOWARDS THE NORTH. CURRENTLY GRIDS
HAVE ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR THE
SAWATCH RANGE. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DRY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS AT 700MB ARE
FORECAST TO STAY TO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE JET STREAM MOVING TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

.OUTLOOK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A COLD AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN COULD
BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS...BUT MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET VERY SPECIFIC. --PGW--


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH COS TAF
SITE MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING OF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG.  WEST WINDS AT KPUB IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
DENSE FOG AT BAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  KALS WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH A BRIEF DIP INTO IFR IS PLAUSIBLE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  KCOS APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PROBABILITY REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  WILL
CARRY VCSH IN THE KCOS TAF FOR NOW.  -SHSN LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR
KPUB AND KALS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 181146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THOUGH RETURNS ON RADAR ARE WEAK AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LOW CLOUD TOPS...THE SNOW IS STILL FLYING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO. AT MIDNIGHT WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF AN ONGOING
GORGE EVENT WITH 7 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED IN THE GORGE ON HIGHWAY
550 JUST SOUTH OF OURAY BUT ONLY 3 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF THE GORGE
AREA AT RED MTN PASS. EXPECTING THIS EVENT WILL WRAP UP AROUND 6
OR 7AM AS NEGATIVE OMEGA SUPPORT SLIDES TO THE NORTH.

DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO A
MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
STILL REMAIN SHOWERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT HIGHER LOCATIONS. FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS RH REMAINS HIGH AND SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS A TOUGH TIME DRYING OUT WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GROUND SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT ON
FRIDAY DURING THE LULL OF ACTIVITY SO FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

PACIFIC ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SYSTEM IS UNORGANIZED AND WILL WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION...LIMITING POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE EXITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BRIEF BREAK AHEAD OF WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A LONG
DURATION...PERSISTENTLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENT THAT
STARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH SENDING A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING WAVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SLAMMING THIS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EXCEED 3 G/KG FOR A LARGE
DURATION WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT AS A 120+ JET DRIVES THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA. BASED ON CURRENT SET-UP IN THE MODELS...A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST PACIFIC FLOW AND VERY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS TO
BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL OVER A 2+ DAY PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO...WITH FOCUS
FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. STILL TIME TO WORK
OUT THE DETAILS...BUT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...AND THERE IS ALWAYS A HOWEVER...WAA COULD AND MOST
LIKELY WILL CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
VALUES...THUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE OVERBLOWN. WILL GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. EVEN WITH THAT
CONCERN...WILL STILL BE ISSUING AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING AS THIS
WILL BE A HEAVY TRAVEL WEEK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE LARGE
AS SNOWFALL MAY BE MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS SOME OF OUR
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE GFS GENERATING OVER 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY
MIDWEEK. EVEN HALF OF THAT AMOUNT WILL CAUSE IMPACTS ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PLANS. OTHER AREAS WILL GET INTO THE ACTION AS WELL...BUT
THE EMPHASIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ATTM.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLDER VALLEYS MIX
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AND THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY STORM...ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THIS STORM WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHEREAS THE GFS REMAINS MORE OPEN. EITHER
SOLUTION BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH THE EC MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW INTO THE VALLEYS. WILL JUST RAMP POPS UP FOR
NOW WITH A COOL DOWN IN TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN...SNOW...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MOUNTAINS REMAINING OBSCURED. ALL TERMINAL
SITES WILL BE IMPACTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE CAT THRESHOLDS
AT ALL SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ009-
     018.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 181146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THOUGH RETURNS ON RADAR ARE WEAK AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LOW CLOUD TOPS...THE SNOW IS STILL FLYING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO. AT MIDNIGHT WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF AN ONGOING
GORGE EVENT WITH 7 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED IN THE GORGE ON HIGHWAY
550 JUST SOUTH OF OURAY BUT ONLY 3 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF THE GORGE
AREA AT RED MTN PASS. EXPECTING THIS EVENT WILL WRAP UP AROUND 6
OR 7AM AS NEGATIVE OMEGA SUPPORT SLIDES TO THE NORTH.

DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO A
MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
STILL REMAIN SHOWERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT HIGHER LOCATIONS. FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS RH REMAINS HIGH AND SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS A TOUGH TIME DRYING OUT WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GROUND SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT ON
FRIDAY DURING THE LULL OF ACTIVITY SO FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

PACIFIC ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL DRAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SYSTEM IS UNORGANIZED AND WILL WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION...LIMITING POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE EXITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BRIEF BREAK AHEAD OF WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A LONG
DURATION...PERSISTENTLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENT THAT
STARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH SENDING A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING WAVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SLAMMING THIS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EXCEED 3 G/KG FOR A LARGE
DURATION WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT AS A 120+ JET DRIVES THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA. BASED ON CURRENT SET-UP IN THE MODELS...A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST PACIFIC FLOW AND VERY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS TO
BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL OVER A 2+ DAY PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO...WITH FOCUS
FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. STILL TIME TO WORK
OUT THE DETAILS...BUT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER...AND THERE IS ALWAYS A HOWEVER...WAA COULD AND MOST
LIKELY WILL CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
VALUES...THUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE OVERBLOWN. WILL GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. EVEN WITH THAT
CONCERN...WILL STILL BE ISSUING AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING AS THIS
WILL BE A HEAVY TRAVEL WEEK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE LARGE
AS SNOWFALL MAY BE MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS SOME OF OUR
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE GFS GENERATING OVER 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY
MIDWEEK. EVEN HALF OF THAT AMOUNT WILL CAUSE IMPACTS ON HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PLANS. OTHER AREAS WILL GET INTO THE ACTION AS WELL...BUT
THE EMPHASIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ATTM.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLDER VALLEYS MIX
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AND THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY STORM...ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THIS STORM WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHEREAS THE GFS REMAINS MORE OPEN. EITHER
SOLUTION BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH THE EC MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW INTO THE VALLEYS. WILL JUST RAMP POPS UP FOR
NOW WITH A COOL DOWN IN TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN...SNOW...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MOUNTAINS REMAINING OBSCURED. ALL TERMINAL
SITES WILL BE IMPACTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE CAT THRESHOLDS
AT ALL SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ009-
     018.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFITNG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WARMING OR STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED
TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. THE RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS OVERHEAD. IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 181100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFITNG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WARMING OR STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED
TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. THE RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS OVERHEAD. IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFITNG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WARMING OR STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED
TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. THE RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS OVERHEAD. IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFITNG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WARMING OR STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED
TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. THE RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS OVERHEAD. IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFITNG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WARMING OR STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED
TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. THE RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS OVERHEAD. IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 181100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE TODAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE WEAK WEST WINDS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
OF TWO INCHES. AREAS OF FOR AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRIFITNG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AT METAR STATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN IMPROVING. WILL
HANG ON TO THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.
WILL ALSO HANG ON TO PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WARMING OR STRONG SUNSHINE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO THERE IS LITTLE NEED
TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON FRI AS A
FLAT UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  OVERALL CROSS-SECTIONS ONLY
SHOW SOME MOISTURE NR MTN TOP SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700
MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST.

ON SAT ANOTHER WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A
CHC OF -SHSN TO THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  850-700 MB
TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES SO WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH READINGS AROUND DENVER COULD REACH THE UPPER
40S.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AND INTENSIFY.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS THRU THE DAY SO SHOULD A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW ESPECIALLY BY AFTN.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER.  850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 3 DEGREES OR SO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON STG MOIST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS LAPSE RATES RISE
INTO THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LVL JET MAY SEE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE
MTNS AND PORTIONS OF HIGHER VALLEYS.  OVER NERN CO APPEARS A BORA
TYPE FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DESPITE NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NERN
CO.  THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHC MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING.
IN ADDITION THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS MORE NNE MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FM DENVER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MEANWHILE TEMP PROFILES FM THE
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR PCPN MOSTLY AS SNOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS READINGS
WARMER WITH PCPN FALLING AS RAIN MON AFTN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
MON EVENING.  THIS FAR OUT HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW SINCE TIMING OF
PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR TUE STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE MTNS HOWEVER
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE.  THUS WILL STILL SEE
PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN SNOW.  OVER NERN CO THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH COMBINES WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW ALONG
THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHICH IS ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET.  THE GFS SORT OF SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS
MUCH PCPN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NWLY.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE MTNS WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
JET. OVER NERN CO BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SURE OF
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ONCE
AGAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO BASED ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SE INTO THE RGN ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.  OF COURSE
THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY SO WE SHALL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. THE RAP INDICATES SOME LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MEANDERS OVERHEAD. IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180624
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS INTO ALIGNMENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN AFT SUNSET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 180624
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS INTO ALIGNMENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN AFT SUNSET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 180545
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

ACCUMULATIONS WERE LIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN MTNS TODAY BUT WERE
PICKING UP IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. MID AFTERNOON SNOTELS
INDICATED TRACE TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS...WITH ONE INCH REPORTED
IN SILVERTON. RADAR HAS SHOWED SOME SUSTAINED ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
LA SAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISORGANIZED SYSTEM IS WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE KEY TO THE
WEATHER IS THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN- CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
LEFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SOUTHERN MTN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT OPEN WAVE
WORKS THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ-NM. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN FOG THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SETTLE INTO MOST VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FAVORING THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. FOG AGAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS
MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD FOR MID DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

A TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHED ALONG BY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG PACIFIC JET TO THE NORTHWEST COAST. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THE BULK
OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER STAYING UNSATURATED. HOWEVER CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGESTS MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LIKE POPS WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW
SIDE. 300K THETA SURFACES SHOW A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHWEST STATES EARLY THIS WEEKEND...REACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH
130+KT CORE NOSING INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CONUS. MUCH OF THE
UPSTREAM TERRAIN WILL BE ALLOWED TO SOAK UP THIS MOISTURE WITH THE
MAIN STORM TRACK AND DYNAMICS STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DOWN TO NEAR VAIL PASS WILL BE BRUSHED WITH
MOISTURE AND WILL RELY ON INCREASING OROGRAPHICS TO PRODUCE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. THE OROGRAPHICS WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY JET DYNAMICS AND A CONSTANT STREAM OF CHANNELIZED
VORTICITY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
DECEMBER OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA. THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...MOISTURE AND WINDS ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD SNOW TO A WIDER
AUDIENCE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WARM AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND CHANGING THE DENDRITIC AND POSSIBLY THE
OROGRAPHICS MONDAY...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT ALL INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO
BE THERE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STRONG RIDGING IN THE EAST
PACIFIC AND A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE EAST KEEPS
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MID- WEEK. THE LONGER TERM
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A HIGH LATITUDE SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH COULD BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO OUR CWA BY IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAYS. FOR THE MOST
PART TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING
THIS ACTIVE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. LOWERED CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT MANY
LOCATIONS EITHER DUE TO -SN AND FG OR JUST REDUCED VIS DUE TO BR.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE BY THURS AM BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON WHETHER IT WILL AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK BY 19Z THURSDAY...THOUGH DECENT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THURS NIGHT...ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS ON THURS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY OVER THE MTNS SO MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL STILL BE COMMON
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-018-
     019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 180545
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

ACCUMULATIONS WERE LIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN MTNS TODAY BUT WERE
PICKING UP IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. MID AFTERNOON SNOTELS
INDICATED TRACE TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS...WITH ONE INCH REPORTED
IN SILVERTON. RADAR HAS SHOWED SOME SUSTAINED ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
LA SAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISORGANIZED SYSTEM IS WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE KEY TO THE
WEATHER IS THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN- CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
LEFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SOUTHERN MTN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT OPEN WAVE
WORKS THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ-NM. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN FOG THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SETTLE INTO MOST VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FAVORING THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. FOG AGAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS
MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD FOR MID DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

A TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHED ALONG BY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG PACIFIC JET TO THE NORTHWEST COAST. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THE BULK
OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER STAYING UNSATURATED. HOWEVER CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGESTS MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LIKE POPS WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW
SIDE. 300K THETA SURFACES SHOW A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHWEST STATES EARLY THIS WEEKEND...REACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH
130+KT CORE NOSING INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CONUS. MUCH OF THE
UPSTREAM TERRAIN WILL BE ALLOWED TO SOAK UP THIS MOISTURE WITH THE
MAIN STORM TRACK AND DYNAMICS STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DOWN TO NEAR VAIL PASS WILL BE BRUSHED WITH
MOISTURE AND WILL RELY ON INCREASING OROGRAPHICS TO PRODUCE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. THE OROGRAPHICS WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY JET DYNAMICS AND A CONSTANT STREAM OF CHANNELIZED
VORTICITY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
DECEMBER OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA. THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...MOISTURE AND WINDS ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD SNOW TO A WIDER
AUDIENCE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WARM AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND CHANGING THE DENDRITIC AND POSSIBLY THE
OROGRAPHICS MONDAY...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT ALL INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO
BE THERE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STRONG RIDGING IN THE EAST
PACIFIC AND A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE EAST KEEPS
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MID- WEEK. THE LONGER TERM
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A HIGH LATITUDE SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH COULD BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO OUR CWA BY IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAYS. FOR THE MOST
PART TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING
THIS ACTIVE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. LOWERED CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT MANY
LOCATIONS EITHER DUE TO -SN AND FG OR JUST REDUCED VIS DUE TO BR.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE BY THURS AM BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON WHETHER IT WILL AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK BY 19Z THURSDAY...THOUGH DECENT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THURS NIGHT...ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS ON THURS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY OVER THE MTNS SO MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL STILL BE COMMON
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-018-
     019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAM



000
FXUS65 KPUB 180525
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN AFT SUNSET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180525
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN AFT SUNSET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KBOU 180456
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
956 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE IS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OUT THERE...BUT THE WEAK RADAR ECHOES
APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY VIRGA. BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM POPS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TENDING MORE
SOUTHERLY...NOT EXPECTING THIS TO PUSH BACK TOWARD DENVER THOUGH
THINNING CLOUDS COULD ALLOW SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP. NOT LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLEARING OF THE
HIGHER CLOUDS HOWEVER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS A BIT
HIGHER...RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING
ON MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW
BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE
DENVER AREA BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON
MONDAY FOR THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE DENVER AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WITH IFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER IT WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY WITH HIGH CLOUDS PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 180456
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
956 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE IS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OUT THERE...BUT THE WEAK RADAR ECHOES
APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY VIRGA. BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM POPS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TENDING MORE
SOUTHERLY...NOT EXPECTING THIS TO PUSH BACK TOWARD DENVER THOUGH
THINNING CLOUDS COULD ALLOW SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP. NOT LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLEARING OF THE
HIGHER CLOUDS HOWEVER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS A BIT
HIGHER...RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING
ON MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW
BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE
DENVER AREA BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON
MONDAY FOR THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE DENVER AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WITH IFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER IT WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY WITH HIGH CLOUDS PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KPUB 180133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
633 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
633 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
633 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 180133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
633 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER CIRCULATION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BUT NOT HAVING A LOT OF SUCCESS. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS.
SO...TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SNOW SO LEFT THOSE POPS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
ALTHOUGH DID BRING THEM DOWN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 172241
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

ACCUMULATIONS WERE LIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN MTNS TODAY BUT WERE
PICKING UP IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. MID AFTERNOON SNOTELS
INDICATED TRACE TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS...WITH ONE INCH REPORTED
IN SILVERTON. RADAR HAS SHOWED SOME SUSTAINED ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
LA SAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISORGANIZED SYSTEM IS WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE KEY TO THE
WEATHER IS THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN- CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
LEFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SOUTHERN MTN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT OPEN WAVE
WORKS THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ-NM. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN FOG THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SETTLE INTO MOST VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FAVORING THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. FOG AGAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS
MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD FOR MID DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

A TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHED ALONG BY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG PACIFIC JET TO THE NORTHWEST COAST. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THE BULK
OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER STAYING UNSATURATED. HOWEVER CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGESTS MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LIKE POPS WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW
SIDE. 300K THETA SURFACES SHOW A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHWEST STATES EARLY THIS WEEKEND...REACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH
130+KT CORE NOSING INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CONUS. MUCH OF THE
UPSTREAM TERRAIN WILL BE ALLOWED TO SOAK UP THIS MOISTURE WITH THE
MAIN STORM TRACK AND DYNAMICS STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DOWN TO NEAR VAIL PASS WILL BE BRUSHED WITH
MOISTURE AND WILL RELY ON INCREASING OROGRAPHICS TO PRODUCE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. THE OROGRAPHICS WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY JET DYNAMICS AND A CONSTANT STREAM OF CHANNELIZED
VORTICITY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
DECEMBER OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA. THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...MOISTURE AND WINDS ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD SNOW TO A WIDER
AUDIENCE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WARM AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND CHANGING THE DENDRITIC AND POSSIBLY THE
OROGRAPHICS MONDAY...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT ALL INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO
BE THERE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STRONG RIDGING IN THE EAST
PACIFIC AND A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE EAST KEEPS
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MID- WEEK. THE LONGER TERM
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A HIGH LATITUDE SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH COULD BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO OUR CWA BY IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAYS. FOR THE MOST
PART TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING
THIS ACTIVE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AREAS
OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. PERIODS OF -SN
WILL AT TIMES LOWER CIGS TO AOB 010 AND VSBY TO BLOW 3SM FOR
KMTJ...KTEX...AND KDRO WITH CHANCES FOR PERIODS MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS FOR KCNY...KGJT...KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE. BETWEEN
06Z-18Z AREAS OF FOG LOCALLY DENSE COULD IMPACT OPERATIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-018-
     019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 172219 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORHTEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ON
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. IF
THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW BANDS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE DENVER AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON MONDAY FOR
THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THROUGH 5PM...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.  SOME FOG WILL REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE METRO AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RTG



000
FXUS65 KBOU 172219 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORHTEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ON
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. IF
THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW BANDS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE DENVER AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON MONDAY FOR
THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THROUGH 5PM...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.  SOME FOG WILL REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE METRO AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RTG




000
FXUS65 KBOU 172209
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
310 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORHTEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ON
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. IF
THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW BANDS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE DENVER AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON MONDAY FOR
THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THROUGH 5PM...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.  SOME FOG WILL REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE METRO AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RTG



000
FXUS65 KBOU 172209
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
310 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MST
WED DEC 17 2014

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE HERE IN COLORADO.
THIS WILL BE ONE THING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS  IF
FEEDER-SEEDER ISSUES DEVELOP.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESIDUAL FOG IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADDED FOG THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW COVER AND FOG...THE MAX TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  RADAR ALREADY SHOWS ECHOES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE... BUT THUS FAR NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SURFACE.
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...
BUT EXPECT ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AWAY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO ON THE DIVIDE.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH DIVING
INTO ARIZONA.  AS A RESULT SNOW WILL STILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DRYING HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH TEENS OVER THE SNOWFIELD IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
20S OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT WARMUP
TO NEAR FREEZING IN NORHTEAST COLORADO...AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AND DOWNWARD FORCING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UP FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR.

MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG
AND MOIST JET STREAM MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND WIND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT NOON MONDAY.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 140+ KT JET MAX OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STILL
PERSIST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT WINDY ON THE PLAINS
AS A GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HIGER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ON
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. IF
THIS HAPPENS, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW BANDS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE DENVER AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ON MONDAY FOR
THESE AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES ORIENTED OVER THE COLORADO WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW FALLING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY ADDED A 10 POP FOR DENVER DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS WAY OUT IN DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THROUGH 5PM...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.  SOME FOG WILL REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE METRO AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RTG




000
FXUS65 KPUB 172151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 172151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 172151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 172151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RADAR IMAGERY...OBS AND
WEBCAMS INDICATE LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE WEBCAMS INDICATE A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE
FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TOWARD COLORADO.  BASED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ON A HIGH-RES
MODEL BLEND OF THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM.  EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
A BAND...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND LIFT IT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO
COUNTY...AND OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE THE BAND WILL MOVE
ACROSS.  MODELS ALSO GENERATING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE RAMPART RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES STILL LOOK ON PAR FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP A SOLID 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COMING TO AN END EARLY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  EXPECT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY IN
THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT...AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCH. FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN TO A
SMALL PORTION OF THE RATON RIDGE. TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE CWA BY
MIDMORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTH
PACIFIC EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
US...WITH ITS INFLUENCE IN COLORADO MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES TROUGH
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO INITIALLY.  THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF OUR
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE CWA.  AS A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES TO OUR EAST...THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT UPPER FLOW...CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW A
BROAD...AND COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO COLORADO DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PAY ATTENTION TO THE UPDATED
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS EVOLVING...COLDER WEATHER PATTERN. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KALS WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KCOS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUOUS.  SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY.

KPUB...CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 171850
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT
MOST OF THE PLAINS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FORECAST WAS INDICATING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WARM AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION...THE EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS AND KPUB...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
BOTH LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KPUB. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 171850
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT
MOST OF THE PLAINS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FORECAST WAS INDICATING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WARM AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION...THE EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS AND KPUB...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
BOTH LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KPUB. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 171732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1032 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS AND KPUB...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
BOTH LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KPUB. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 171732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1032 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KALS...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
REDUCED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA AND SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.

KCOS AND KPUB...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
BOTH LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KPUB. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171716
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND 10
AM SETTING OFF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWS IT MOVING
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 11 AM OR SO. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL
KEYING ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN SE UTAH ARCING UP MESA COUNTY
INTO THE FLAT TOPS. BLANDING NUCLA CORTEZ DURANGO PAGOSA HAVE HAD
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP THIS MORNING. THE NAM GENERALLY STILL
OVERDOING SNOW AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

A MOIST BUT WEAKLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WEAK H7 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
STRENGTHENING ON IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING WHICH
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MODELED NAM QC FORCING. WX MODELS INDICATE
H7 TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WHICH MADE
TODAY/S FORECAST RATHER TRICKY DUE TO SNOW LEVEL CONFIDENCE
ISSUES. EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SW COLORADO
TODAY AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
BULLSEYE LOOKS TO BE OVER SW COLORADO. DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEY ZONES AS WELL AS THE
PARADOX VALLEY THINKING WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTATIONS OF THEM DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAT SNOW SHOULD
NOT MIX IN WITH RAIN FOR VERY LONG IF AT ALL. DECIDED TO KEEP
OTHER AREAS OUT OF HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW
WILL NOT COMPLETELY STOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE TAIL END
OF THIS SYSTEM WRAPPING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LENGTHY FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING WINDS BENEATH A
140 KT JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. APPEARS MODELS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR PERSISTENT SNOW OVER COLORADO/S NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WHICH COULD LAST INTO MIDWEEK. IF LATEST MODELS VERIFY...THERE IS
A STRONG CHANCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.

NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. FAVORED
AREAS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.
PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR
KMTJ...KTEX...AND KDRO WITH STRONG CHANCES FOR PERIODS MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS FOR KCNY...KGJT...KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE. AFT 12Z
THURSDAY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD VFR WITH OCNL MTN
OBSCURATION THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ020>023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171716
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND 10
AM SETTING OFF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWS IT MOVING
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 11 AM OR SO. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL
KEYING ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN SE UTAH ARCING UP MESA COUNTY
INTO THE FLAT TOPS. BLANDING NUCLA CORTEZ DURANGO PAGOSA HAVE HAD
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP THIS MORNING. THE NAM GENERALLY STILL
OVERDOING SNOW AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

A MOIST BUT WEAKLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WEAK H7 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
STRENGTHENING ON IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING WHICH
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MODELED NAM QC FORCING. WX MODELS INDICATE
H7 TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WHICH MADE
TODAY/S FORECAST RATHER TRICKY DUE TO SNOW LEVEL CONFIDENCE
ISSUES. EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SW COLORADO
TODAY AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
BULLSEYE LOOKS TO BE OVER SW COLORADO. DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEY ZONES AS WELL AS THE
PARADOX VALLEY THINKING WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTATIONS OF THEM DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAT SNOW SHOULD
NOT MIX IN WITH RAIN FOR VERY LONG IF AT ALL. DECIDED TO KEEP
OTHER AREAS OUT OF HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW
WILL NOT COMPLETELY STOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE TAIL END
OF THIS SYSTEM WRAPPING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LENGTHY FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING WINDS BENEATH A
140 KT JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. APPEARS MODELS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR PERSISTENT SNOW OVER COLORADO/S NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WHICH COULD LAST INTO MIDWEEK. IF LATEST MODELS VERIFY...THERE IS
A STRONG CHANCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.

NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. FAVORED
AREAS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.
PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR
KMTJ...KTEX...AND KDRO WITH STRONG CHANCES FOR PERIODS MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS FOR KCNY...KGJT...KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE. AFT 12Z
THURSDAY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD VFR WITH OCNL MTN
OBSCURATION THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ020>023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171716
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND 10
AM SETTING OFF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWS IT MOVING
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 11 AM OR SO. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL
KEYING ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN SE UTAH ARCING UP MESA COUNTY
INTO THE FLAT TOPS. BLANDING NUCLA CORTEZ DURANGO PAGOSA HAVE HAD
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP THIS MORNING. THE NAM GENERALLY STILL
OVERDOING SNOW AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

A MOIST BUT WEAKLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WEAK H7 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
STRENGTHENING ON IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING WHICH
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MODELED NAM QC FORCING. WX MODELS INDICATE
H7 TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WHICH MADE
TODAY/S FORECAST RATHER TRICKY DUE TO SNOW LEVEL CONFIDENCE
ISSUES. EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SW COLORADO
TODAY AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
BULLSEYE LOOKS TO BE OVER SW COLORADO. DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEY ZONES AS WELL AS THE
PARADOX VALLEY THINKING WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTATIONS OF THEM DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAT SNOW SHOULD
NOT MIX IN WITH RAIN FOR VERY LONG IF AT ALL. DECIDED TO KEEP
OTHER AREAS OUT OF HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW
WILL NOT COMPLETELY STOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE TAIL END
OF THIS SYSTEM WRAPPING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LENGTHY FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING WINDS BENEATH A
140 KT JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. APPEARS MODELS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR PERSISTENT SNOW OVER COLORADO/S NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WHICH COULD LAST INTO MIDWEEK. IF LATEST MODELS VERIFY...THERE IS
A STRONG CHANCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.

NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. FAVORED
AREAS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.
PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR
KMTJ...KTEX...AND KDRO WITH STRONG CHANCES FOR PERIODS MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS FOR KCNY...KGJT...KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE. AFT 12Z
THURSDAY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD VFR WITH OCNL MTN
OBSCURATION THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ020>023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171716
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND 10
AM SETTING OFF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWS IT MOVING
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 11 AM OR SO. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL
KEYING ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN SE UTAH ARCING UP MESA COUNTY
INTO THE FLAT TOPS. BLANDING NUCLA CORTEZ DURANGO PAGOSA HAVE HAD
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP THIS MORNING. THE NAM GENERALLY STILL
OVERDOING SNOW AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

A MOIST BUT WEAKLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WEAK H7 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
STRENGTHENING ON IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING WHICH
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MODELED NAM QC FORCING. WX MODELS INDICATE
H7 TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WHICH MADE
TODAY/S FORECAST RATHER TRICKY DUE TO SNOW LEVEL CONFIDENCE
ISSUES. EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SW COLORADO
TODAY AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
BULLSEYE LOOKS TO BE OVER SW COLORADO. DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEY ZONES AS WELL AS THE
PARADOX VALLEY THINKING WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTATIONS OF THEM DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAT SNOW SHOULD
NOT MIX IN WITH RAIN FOR VERY LONG IF AT ALL. DECIDED TO KEEP
OTHER AREAS OUT OF HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW
WILL NOT COMPLETELY STOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE TAIL END
OF THIS SYSTEM WRAPPING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LENGTHY FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING WINDS BENEATH A
140 KT JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. APPEARS MODELS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR PERSISTENT SNOW OVER COLORADO/S NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WHICH COULD LAST INTO MIDWEEK. IF LATEST MODELS VERIFY...THERE IS
A STRONG CHANCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.

NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. FAVORED
AREAS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.
PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR
KMTJ...KTEX...AND KDRO WITH STRONG CHANCES FOR PERIODS MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS FOR KCNY...KGJT...KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE. AFT 12Z
THURSDAY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD VFR WITH OCNL MTN
OBSCURATION THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ020>023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KBOU 171644
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

AM BECOMING CONCERNED FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS THAT BEST
SNOW PRODUCTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY SOUTHWARD. WILL CUT BACK POPS A BIT NORTH OF THE PALMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STILL WEAK LIFT FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WESTERN SLOPE
PER LATEST OBS AND GRAND JUNCTION RADAR. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT INCREASES. THE BEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THESE SITUATIONS USUALLY FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOSQUITO RANGE
THROUGH BOREAS PASS AND MOUNT EVANS AREA...OR ALONG THE
SUMMIT/PARK/CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BORDERS SO ADJUSTED THOSE AMOUNTS
UP A BIT ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE LOCAL 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THERE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

ON THE PLAINS...STILL UNSURE HOW THIS PANS OUT AS MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BELOW ABOUT 5000-6000 FT AGL. LOCATIONS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BOULDER/DENVER METRO
AREAS...WITH LOWER OR NO POPS FARTHER NORTH/EAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID/LATE EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
STILL SEE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THOUGH WITH WEAK
OROGRAPHICS AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RATHER COOL START TO THE MORNING.

AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS LOOKS THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBS AND
CIMMS GOES-R PROVING GROUND IFR PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RATHER MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BEFORE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...AN OPEN WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER COLORADO. THE WEAK
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SUBSIDENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AN END. AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INCREASING...BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS.

AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP...A STRONG AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS COULD BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
MODELS POINT TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WINDIEST PERIOD AND
MONDAY BEING THE SNOWIEST PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BIT OF
A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG IS STEADILY DECREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
MORNING...SO NO FURTHER THREAT TO AREA AIRPORTS. PUBLO RADAR
SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELPING OVER PARK AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW 22Z-03Z AT
KAPA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT KBJC AND KDEN. POSSIBLE
MFVR CONDTIONS AT DENVER...POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AT CENTENNIAL AIPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RTG



000
FXUS65 KBOU 171644
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

AM BECOMING CONCERNED FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS THAT BEST
SNOW PRODUCTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY SOUTHWARD. WILL CUT BACK POPS A BIT NORTH OF THE PALMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STILL WEAK LIFT FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WESTERN SLOPE
PER LATEST OBS AND GRAND JUNCTION RADAR. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT INCREASES. THE BEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THESE SITUATIONS USUALLY FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOSQUITO RANGE
THROUGH BOREAS PASS AND MOUNT EVANS AREA...OR ALONG THE
SUMMIT/PARK/CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BORDERS SO ADJUSTED THOSE AMOUNTS
UP A BIT ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE LOCAL 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THERE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

ON THE PLAINS...STILL UNSURE HOW THIS PANS OUT AS MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BELOW ABOUT 5000-6000 FT AGL. LOCATIONS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BOULDER/DENVER METRO
AREAS...WITH LOWER OR NO POPS FARTHER NORTH/EAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID/LATE EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
STILL SEE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THOUGH WITH WEAK
OROGRAPHICS AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RATHER COOL START TO THE MORNING.

AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS LOOKS THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBS AND
CIMMS GOES-R PROVING GROUND IFR PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RATHER MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BEFORE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...AN OPEN WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER COLORADO. THE WEAK
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SUBSIDENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AN END. AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INCREASING...BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS.

AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP...A STRONG AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS COULD BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
MODELS POINT TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WINDIEST PERIOD AND
MONDAY BEING THE SNOWIEST PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BIT OF
A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG IS STEADILY DECREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
MORNING...SO NO FURTHER THREAT TO AREA AIRPORTS. PUBLO RADAR
SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELPING OVER PARK AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW 22Z-03Z AT
KAPA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT KBJC AND KDEN. POSSIBLE
MFVR CONDTIONS AT DENVER...POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AT CENTENNIAL AIPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RTG




000
FXUS65 KPUB 171135
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
435 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.  MEANWHILE...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING...THEN INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 171135
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
435 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF OF THE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
TODAY...AND ANOTHER GLANCING BY SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW
DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING...WITH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.  SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES
BY MID MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD.  OVERALL FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.  BUT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY RANGE.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK UPGLIDE SPREADS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY...WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.  H7
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
...BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK...UNDER 10 KTS.  THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT IN
THE MODELS TO FOCUS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND
UPSLOPE...AND NAM12 ACCUMULATIONS LOOK ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4-5 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT GRIDS HAVE THIS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 11KFT.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...H7 WINDS
REMAIN MORE WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE)...SO EXPECTING LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE CREST OF THE SANGRES ABOVE 11KFT MAY FAIR A LITTLE BETTER
WITH AROUND 2-6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE SPOTTIER ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARDS MORNING AS UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
-KT


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PASS OVER COLORADO.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION.
ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS TROUGH...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS EXTENDING EASTWARD ONTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE CR
EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. SUSPECT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR
SOME PERIODS WHEN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGHS ARE
BETTER KNOWN. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AS PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.  MEANWHILE...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING...THEN INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KBOU 171118
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STILL WEAK LIFT FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WESTERN SLOPE
PER LATEST OBS AND GRAND JUNCTION RADAR. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT INCREASES. THE BEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THESE SITUATIONS USUALLY FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOSQUITO RANGE
THROUGH BOREAS PASS AND MOUNT EVANS AREA...OR ALONG THE
SUMMIT/PARK/CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BORDERS SO ADJUSTED THOSE AMOUNTS
UP A BIT ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE LOCAL 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THERE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

ON THE PLAINS...STILL UNSURE HOW THIS PANS OUT AS MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BELOW ABOUT 5000-6000 FT AGL. LOCATIONS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BOULDER/DENVER METRO
AREAS...WITH LOWER OR NO POPS FARTHER NORTH/EAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID/LATE EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
STILL SEE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THOUGH WITH WEAK
OROGRAPHICS AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RATHER COOL START TO THE MORNING.

AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS LOOKS THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBS AND
CIMMS GOES-R PROVING GROUND IFR PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RATHER MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BEFORE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...AN OPEN WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER COLORADO. THE WEAK
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SUBSIDENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AN END. AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INCREASING...BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS.

AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP...A STRONG AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS COULD BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
MODELS POINT TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WINDIEST PERIOD AND
MONDAY BEING THE SNOWIEST PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BIT OF
A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT DIA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK DENVER CYCLONE TURNING WINDS MORE WEST/NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...PRESENT T/TD SPREADS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOUDS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THREAT LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY LOWER TO ILS LANDINGS BY 22Z-01Z AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW STARTING THEN AS WELL BUT ONLY
ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3SM IN LIGHT SNOW. THAT CHANCE
WILL END BY 04Z-06Z WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 171118
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST Q-G VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STILL WEAK LIFT FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WESTERN SLOPE
PER LATEST OBS AND GRAND JUNCTION RADAR. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT INCREASES. THE BEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THESE SITUATIONS USUALLY FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOSQUITO RANGE
THROUGH BOREAS PASS AND MOUNT EVANS AREA...OR ALONG THE
SUMMIT/PARK/CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BORDERS SO ADJUSTED THOSE AMOUNTS
UP A BIT ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE LOCAL 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THERE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

ON THE PLAINS...STILL UNSURE HOW THIS PANS OUT AS MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BELOW ABOUT 5000-6000 FT AGL. LOCATIONS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BOULDER/DENVER METRO
AREAS...WITH LOWER OR NO POPS FARTHER NORTH/EAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID/LATE EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COULD
STILL SEE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THOUGH WITH WEAK
OROGRAPHICS AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RATHER COOL START TO THE MORNING.

AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS LOOKS THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBS AND
CIMMS GOES-R PROVING GROUND IFR PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RATHER MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BEFORE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...AN OPEN WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER COLORADO. THE WEAK
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SUBSIDENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AN END. AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN INCREASING...BRINGING SNOW BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS.

AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP...A STRONG AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS COULD BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
MODELS POINT TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WINDIEST PERIOD AND
MONDAY BEING THE SNOWIEST PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BIT OF
A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT DIA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK DENVER CYCLONE TURNING WINDS MORE WEST/NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...PRESENT T/TD SPREADS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOUDS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THREAT LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY LOWER TO ILS LANDINGS BY 22Z-01Z AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW STARTING THEN AS WELL BUT ONLY
ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3SM IN LIGHT SNOW. THAT CHANCE
WILL END BY 04Z-06Z WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171107
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

A MOIST BUT WEAKLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WEAK H7 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
STRENGTHENING ON IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING WHICH
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MODELED NAM QC FORCING. WX MODELS INDICATE
H7 TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WHICH MADE
TODAY/S FORECAST RATHER TRICKY DUE TO SNOW LEVEL CONFIDENCE
ISSUES. EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SW COLORADO
TODAY AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
BULLSEYE LOOKS TO BE OVER SW COLORADO. DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEY ZONES AS WELL AS THE
PARADOX VALLEY THINKING WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTATIONS OF THEM DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAT SNOW SHOULD
NOT MIX IN WITH RAIN FOR VERY LONG IF AT ALL. DECIDED TO KEEP
OTHER AREAS OUT OF HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW
WILL NOT COMPLETELY STOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE TAIL END
OF THIS SYSTEM WRAPPING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LENGTHY FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING WINDS BENEATH A
140 KT JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. APPEARS MODELS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR PERSISTENT SNOW OVER COLORADO/S NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WHICH COULD LAST INTO MIDWEEK. IF LATEST MODELS VERIFY...THERE IS
A STRONG CHANCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.

NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A PACIFIC STORM LIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. FAVORED AREAS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBY IN SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR KMTJ...KTEX...AND KDRO WITH STRONG
CHANCES FOR PERIODS MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR KCNY...KGJT...KRIL
...KEGE...AND KASE. FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT SO NOT
ANTICIPATING SHEAR TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ020>023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 171107
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

A MOIST BUT WEAKLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WEAK H7 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
STRENGTHENING ON IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING WHICH
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MODELED NAM QC FORCING. WX MODELS INDICATE
H7 TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WHICH MADE
TODAY/S FORECAST RATHER TRICKY DUE TO SNOW LEVEL CONFIDENCE
ISSUES. EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SW COLORADO
TODAY AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
BULLSEYE LOOKS TO BE OVER SW COLORADO. DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEY ZONES AS WELL AS THE
PARADOX VALLEY THINKING WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTATIONS OF THEM DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAT SNOW SHOULD
NOT MIX IN WITH RAIN FOR VERY LONG IF AT ALL. DECIDED TO KEEP
OTHER AREAS OUT OF HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW
WILL NOT COMPLETELY STOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE TAIL END
OF THIS SYSTEM WRAPPING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LENGTHY FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING WINDS BENEATH A
140 KT JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. APPEARS MODELS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR PERSISTENT SNOW OVER COLORADO/S NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WHICH COULD LAST INTO MIDWEEK. IF LATEST MODELS VERIFY...THERE IS
A STRONG CHANCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.

NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A PACIFIC STORM LIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. FAVORED AREAS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBY IN SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR KMTJ...KTEX...AND KDRO WITH STRONG
CHANCES FOR PERIODS MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR KCNY...KGJT...KRIL
...KEGE...AND KASE. FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT SO NOT
ANTICIPATING SHEAR TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ020>023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170646
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCOS...KALS AND KPUB THROUGH ABOUT
NOONTIME TOMORROW. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND BRING PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS TO THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE
ALL SITES GOING AT LEAST MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND THIS FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY LATER SHIFTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 170553
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1053 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM
MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

KVEL WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOCKED IN BY BR OVERNIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. -SN AND -RA STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER CIGS AT MOUNTAIN
AIRFIELDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE UTAH...SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO AND SW COLORADO
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5500 FT BUT WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. -SN MIXED IN WITH -RA IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOW VALLEY SITES
(KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE IFR AT THESE SITES. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 170553
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1053 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM
MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

KVEL WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOCKED IN BY BR OVERNIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. -SN AND -RA STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER CIGS AT MOUNTAIN
AIRFIELDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE UTAH...SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO AND SW COLORADO
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5500 FT BUT WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. -SN MIXED IN WITH -RA IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOW VALLEY SITES
(KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE IFR AT THESE SITES. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 170553
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1053 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM
MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

KVEL WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOCKED IN BY BR OVERNIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. -SN AND -RA STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER CIGS AT MOUNTAIN
AIRFIELDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE UTAH...SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO AND SW COLORADO
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5500 FT BUT WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. -SN MIXED IN WITH -RA IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOW VALLEY SITES
(KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE IFR AT THESE SITES. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 170553
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1053 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM
MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

KVEL WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOCKED IN BY BR OVERNIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. -SN AND -RA STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER CIGS AT MOUNTAIN
AIRFIELDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE UTAH...SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO AND SW COLORADO
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5500 FT BUT WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. -SN MIXED IN WITH -RA IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOW VALLEY SITES
(KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE IFR AT THESE SITES. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170400
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170400
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170400
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170400
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 170400
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 170400
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS/CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 170354
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
854 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

TONIGHT`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION THAT PASSED BY EARLIER TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVERLAYING SNOW COVER ON THE
PLAINS MAY ONCE AGAIN CONDENSE OUT INTO PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH FURTHER COOLING. COULD SEE VBSYS LOWERING TO
LESS THAN A MILE OR SO IN SPOTS NEAR THE STATE`S NORTHEAST
CORNER...HIGHER AREAS AROUND LIMON AND ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE
RIVER INTO WELD COUNTY. BY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SKIES FILLING
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY BEGINNING IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR. SHOULD THEN SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.
NEEDED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...
DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS DURING 1ST AND 2ND PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS WITH SKIES
CLEARING THROUGH 2 AM. SKIES WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WITH HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH CLOUD CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MIDDAY...COULD SEE BROKEN CIGS DOWN
AROUND 4500-5000 FT AGL WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AREA. BY MID-AFTERNOON TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO ILS CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 170354
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
854 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

TONIGHT`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION THAT PASSED BY EARLIER TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVERLAYING SNOW COVER ON THE
PLAINS MAY ONCE AGAIN CONDENSE OUT INTO PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH FURTHER COOLING. COULD SEE VBSYS LOWERING TO
LESS THAN A MILE OR SO IN SPOTS NEAR THE STATE`S NORTHEAST
CORNER...HIGHER AREAS AROUND LIMON AND ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE
RIVER INTO WELD COUNTY. BY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SKIES FILLING
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY BEGINNING IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR. SHOULD THEN SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.
NEEDED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...
DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS DURING 1ST AND 2ND PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS WITH SKIES
CLEARING THROUGH 2 AM. SKIES WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WITH HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH CLOUD CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MIDDAY...COULD SEE BROKEN CIGS DOWN
AROUND 4500-5000 FT AGL WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AREA. BY MID-AFTERNOON TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO ILS CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 170354
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
854 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

TONIGHT`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION THAT PASSED BY EARLIER TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVERLAYING SNOW COVER ON THE
PLAINS MAY ONCE AGAIN CONDENSE OUT INTO PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH FURTHER COOLING. COULD SEE VBSYS LOWERING TO
LESS THAN A MILE OR SO IN SPOTS NEAR THE STATE`S NORTHEAST
CORNER...HIGHER AREAS AROUND LIMON AND ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE
RIVER INTO WELD COUNTY. BY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SKIES FILLING
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY BEGINNING IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR. SHOULD THEN SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.
NEEDED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...
DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS DURING 1ST AND 2ND PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS WITH SKIES
CLEARING THROUGH 2 AM. SKIES WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WITH HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH CLOUD CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MIDDAY...COULD SEE BROKEN CIGS DOWN
AROUND 4500-5000 FT AGL WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AREA. BY MID-AFTERNOON TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO ILS CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 162329
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
429 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

CORRECTED A FEW TYPOS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION TIME

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM
MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z LATE TONIGHT.

AFTER 09Z...CIGS WILL LOWER WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VIS SOUTH OF
I70 AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS AS LIGHT SNOW SPREAD NORTHWARD. MOUNTAIN
AIRPORTS WILL HAVE EITHER HAVE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW IN THE VICINITY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DESERT AIRPORTS (KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) MAY MAINTAIN VFR AS THE PCPN
TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN (BUT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING). IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 162329
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
429 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

CORRECTED A FEW TYPOS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION TIME

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM
MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z LATE TONIGHT.

AFTER 09Z...CIGS WILL LOWER WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VIS SOUTH OF
I70 AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS AS LIGHT SNOW SPREAD NORTHWARD. MOUNTAIN
AIRPORTS WILL HAVE EITHER HAVE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW IN THE VICINITY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DESERT AIRPORTS (KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) MAY MAINTAIN VFR AS THE PCPN
TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN (BUT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING). IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KBOU 162226
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. IF IT DOES SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 162226
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. IF IT DOES SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KPUB 162221
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 162221
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO...AS RATHER
FRAGMENTED WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLIER TODAY HAS
EXITED THE STATE...AND EXPECT CURRENT LULL IN SNOWFALL TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. PIECES OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING...AND MOST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT BUT STEADY SNOW DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AS
WELL. BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) MAY GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING MOUNTAIN
AREAS SEE MUCH LIGHTER (1-2 INCH) SNOWFALL. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM...PLUS RATHER WEAK 700 MB AND ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE W-SW FLOW WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING...MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY VERSUS TODAY...WHILE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...COLDER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS VARY IN THE
STORM TRACK OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHO
SEES PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHEN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD 4 TO 8 INCHES WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AS FAR AS THE PLAINS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY THE NAM DEVELOPS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BAND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAVORED THESE AREAS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS IF AND ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT BETTER CERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD TIGHTENS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE ENERGY OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF DOES DROP A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ANY SNOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON WED...A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
KALS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY 21Z-00Z. AT
KCOS...ISOLATED -SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z...BUT WON`T LIKELY IMPACT THE AIRPORT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. AT KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING AC/CI CIGS.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY 12Z...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WED. EXPECT MOST
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS/SNOW BY 18Z-19Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING PAST 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 162202
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION. AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z LATE TONIGHT.

AFTER 09Z...CIGS WILL LOWER WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VIS SOUTH OF
I70 AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS AS LIGHT SNOW SPREAD NORTHWARD. MOUNTAIN
AIRPORTS WILL HAVE EITHER HAVE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW IN THE VICINITY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DESERT AIRPORTS (KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) MAY MAINTAIN VFR AS THE PCPN
TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN (BUT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING). IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 162202
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION. AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z LATE TONIGHT.

AFTER 09Z...CIGS WILL LOWER WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VIS SOUTH OF
I70 AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS AS LIGHT SNOW SPREAD NORTHWARD. MOUNTAIN
AIRPORTS WILL HAVE EITHER HAVE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW IN THE VICINITY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DESERT AIRPORTS (KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) MAY MAINTAIN VFR AS THE PCPN
TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN (BUT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING). IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 162202
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION. AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z LATE TONIGHT.

AFTER 09Z...CIGS WILL LOWER WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VIS SOUTH OF
I70 AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS AS LIGHT SNOW SPREAD NORTHWARD. MOUNTAIN
AIRPORTS WILL HAVE EITHER HAVE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW IN THE VICINITY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DESERT AIRPORTS (KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) MAY MAINTAIN VFR AS THE PCPN
TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN (BUT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING). IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 162202
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION. AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z LATE TONIGHT.

AFTER 09Z...CIGS WILL LOWER WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VIS SOUTH OF
I70 AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS AS LIGHT SNOW SPREAD NORTHWARD. MOUNTAIN
AIRPORTS WILL HAVE EITHER HAVE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW IN THE VICINITY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DESERT AIRPORTS (KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) MAY MAINTAIN VFR AS THE PCPN
TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN (BUT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING). IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KBOU 161835
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1135 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

LITTLE BIT OF LIFT WITH A RIBBON OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS
PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FAIRLY
LIGHT IN SUMMIT COUNTY...BUT A BIT MORE IN THE WILDS FURTHER
NORTH. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH TO THIS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES IN
THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THAN WHAT WE HAD
FORECAST IN MOST AREAS.

AT THIS TIME LIKING THE IDEA OF THE NAM SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ONTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE TAF...WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS SOONER/MORE IN THE
PUBLIC PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON IF IT STILL LOOKS GOOD. NOT MUCH BUT
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE 600 MB PER UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT WEAK AND PERSISTENT Q-G LIFT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT MOISTENING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND THEN PEAKING AROUND NOON BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THIS WEAK WAVE.

ON THE PLAINS...DRY BUT RATHER STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE COLD START AND
STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING LIGHT
EASTERLY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO PUSH
INTO THE 30S. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS AND
NEARLY THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING WARMER GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LITTLE IF ANY INVERSION THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANSITIONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND
THAT...A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  WEEK.

WEATHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. DRIER AND MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BE WINDY AT
TIMES SINCE THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE ARCHING OVER THE STATE AT
TIMES.

MUCH OF THIS FORECAST REASONING IS BASED ON THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGES CONTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF CONTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL ACCEPT
THE ECMWF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 161835
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1135 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

LITTLE BIT OF LIFT WITH A RIBBON OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS
PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FAIRLY
LIGHT IN SUMMIT COUNTY...BUT A BIT MORE IN THE WILDS FURTHER
NORTH. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH TO THIS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES IN
THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THAN WHAT WE HAD
FORECAST IN MOST AREAS.

AT THIS TIME LIKING THE IDEA OF THE NAM SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ONTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE TAF...WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS SOONER/MORE IN THE
PUBLIC PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON IF IT STILL LOOKS GOOD. NOT MUCH BUT
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE 600 MB PER UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT WEAK AND PERSISTENT Q-G LIFT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT MOISTENING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND THEN PEAKING AROUND NOON BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THIS WEAK WAVE.

ON THE PLAINS...DRY BUT RATHER STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE COLD START AND
STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING LIGHT
EASTERLY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO PUSH
INTO THE 30S. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS AND
NEARLY THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING WARMER GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LITTLE IF ANY INVERSION THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANSITIONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND
THAT...A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  WEEK.

WEATHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. DRIER AND MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BE WINDY AT
TIMES SINCE THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE ARCHING OVER THE STATE AT
TIMES.

MUCH OF THIS FORECAST REASONING IS BASED ON THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGES CONTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF CONTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL ACCEPT
THE ECMWF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 161835
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1135 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

LITTLE BIT OF LIFT WITH A RIBBON OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS
PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FAIRLY
LIGHT IN SUMMIT COUNTY...BUT A BIT MORE IN THE WILDS FURTHER
NORTH. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH TO THIS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES IN
THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THAN WHAT WE HAD
FORECAST IN MOST AREAS.

AT THIS TIME LIKING THE IDEA OF THE NAM SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ONTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE TAF...WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS SOONER/MORE IN THE
PUBLIC PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON IF IT STILL LOOKS GOOD. NOT MUCH BUT
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE 600 MB PER UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT WEAK AND PERSISTENT Q-G LIFT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT MOISTENING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND THEN PEAKING AROUND NOON BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THIS WEAK WAVE.

ON THE PLAINS...DRY BUT RATHER STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE COLD START AND
STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING LIGHT
EASTERLY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO PUSH
INTO THE 30S. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS AND
NEARLY THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING WARMER GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LITTLE IF ANY INVERSION THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANSITIONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND
THAT...A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  WEEK.

WEATHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. DRIER AND MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BE WINDY AT
TIMES SINCE THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE ARCHING OVER THE STATE AT
TIMES.

MUCH OF THIS FORECAST REASONING IS BASED ON THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGES CONTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF CONTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL ACCEPT
THE ECMWF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 161835
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1135 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

LITTLE BIT OF LIFT WITH A RIBBON OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS
PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FAIRLY
LIGHT IN SUMMIT COUNTY...BUT A BIT MORE IN THE WILDS FURTHER
NORTH. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH TO THIS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES IN
THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THAN WHAT WE HAD
FORECAST IN MOST AREAS.

AT THIS TIME LIKING THE IDEA OF THE NAM SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ONTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE TAF...WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS SOONER/MORE IN THE
PUBLIC PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON IF IT STILL LOOKS GOOD. NOT MUCH BUT
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY.

MOST OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE 600 MB PER UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS...BUT WEAK AND PERSISTENT Q-G LIFT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT MOISTENING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND THEN PEAKING AROUND NOON BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THIS WEAK WAVE.

ON THE PLAINS...DRY BUT RATHER STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE COLD START AND
STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING LIGHT
EASTERLY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO PUSH
INTO THE 30S. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS AND
NEARLY THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING WARMER GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LITTLE IF ANY INVERSION THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANSITIONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEYOND
THAT...A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  WEEK.

WEATHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. DRIER AND MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BE WINDY AT
TIMES SINCE THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE ARCHING OVER THE STATE AT
TIMES.

MUCH OF THIS FORECAST REASONING IS BASED ON THE SOLUTION PRESENTED
BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGES CONTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF CONTAINS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL ACCEPT
THE ECMWF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KGJT 161750
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1050 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO. SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING...BUT DIMINISHES QUICKLY AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTH.
MAY BE A QUICK BURST OF ONE HALF TO 1 INCH OF SNOW ACROSS NW
COLORADO. NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE BEGINS TO AFFECT SW COLORADO THIS
EVENING AND LATER UPDATES WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOISTURE...CARRIED BY A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
FAST MOVING RIDGE...HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A
MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN CO AT 4AM MST. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE GENERALLY REPORTED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. BUT OUR CWA SHOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THIS WEAK WAVE AND WARM ADVECTIVE MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. ALSO...THE
NORTHWEST CO VALLEYS REMAIN QUITE COLD THIS MORNING WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...WE
OFTEN DO NOT DO ALL THEN WELL IN A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN. THE 00Z
NAM REALLY UPPED POPS COMPARED TO ITS RUNS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SOLUTION WAS ALSO MUCH JUICIER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. THEREFORE DOWNPLAYED
THE NAM SOMEWHAT FOR THIS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
AGREED THAT THE PEAK WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...AND
TEMPORALLY CENTERED LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. THE NORTHERN DIVIDE
WILL HOLD ONTO SNOW LONGER...BUT STILL MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
BY DARK. SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.

THEN AFTER A DOWNTURN THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTED OFF THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. WHILE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONGER
THAN WHAT WE EXPECT FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED AS THE MAIN
TROUGH STAYS TO OUR WEST AND KEEPS THE FLOW SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING WITH RAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS.

THE WARM MOIST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S NUMBERS. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON WED WILL KEEP TEMPS JUST A
TAD COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

A BROAD SPLIT TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE TO THE
SOUTH AND MOISTURE WITH THIS PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT NEARLY AS
PLENTIFUL AS WITH THE LAST STORM...EXPECT SNOWFALL WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE THURSDAY AS A
TERTIARY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH SNOW TOTALS NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE...CANNOT RULE OUT LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH PASSES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRYING
ENSUES WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS CARRIES A HIGH
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SNOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF SETS UP A
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT
SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. GIVEN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL DEFER TO BLENDED SOLUTIONS.

TRANSIENT DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT WARMING AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW COLORADO NORTH OF I70 WILL HAVE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 18Z-21Z WITH DISSIPATING CIGS AND VIS BECOMING
P6SM. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS THOUGH MID EVENING.

AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CIGS SOUTH OF I70 AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 161750
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1050 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO. SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING...BUT DIMINISHES QUICKLY AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTH.
MAY BE A QUICK BURST OF ONE HALF TO 1 INCH OF SNOW ACROSS NW
COLORADO. NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE BEGINS TO AFFECT SW COLORADO THIS
EVENING AND LATER UPDATES WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOISTURE...CARRIED BY A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
FAST MOVING RIDGE...HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A
MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN CO AT 4AM MST. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE GENERALLY REPORTED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. BUT OUR CWA SHOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THIS WEAK WAVE AND WARM ADVECTIVE MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. ALSO...THE
NORTHWEST CO VALLEYS REMAIN QUITE COLD THIS MORNING WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...WE
OFTEN DO NOT DO ALL THEN WELL IN A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN. THE 00Z
NAM REALLY UPPED POPS COMPARED TO ITS RUNS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SOLUTION WAS ALSO MUCH JUICIER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. THEREFORE DOWNPLAYED
THE NAM SOMEWHAT FOR THIS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH
AGREED THAT THE PEAK WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...AND
TEMPORALLY CENTERED LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. THE NORTHERN DIVIDE
WILL HOLD ONTO SNOW LONGER...BUT STILL MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
BY DARK. SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.

THEN AFTER A DOWNTURN THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTED OFF THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. WHILE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONGER
THAN WHAT WE EXPECT FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED AS THE MAIN
TROUGH STAYS TO OUR WEST AND KEEPS THE FLOW SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING WITH RAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS.

THE WARM MOIST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S NUMBERS. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON WED WILL KEEP TEMPS JUST A
TAD COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

A BROAD SPLIT TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE TO THE
SOUTH AND MOISTURE WITH THIS PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT NEARLY AS
PLENTIFUL AS WITH THE LAST STORM...EXPECT SNOWFALL WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE THURSDAY AS A
TERTIARY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH SNOW TOTALS NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE...CANNOT RULE OUT LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH PASSES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRYING
ENSUES WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS CARRIES A HIGH
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SNOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF SETS UP A
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT
SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. GIVEN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL DEFER TO BLENDED SOLUTIONS.

TRANSIENT DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT WARMING AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NW COLORADO NORTH OF I70 WILL HAVE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 18Z-21Z WITH DISSIPATING CIGS AND VIS BECOMING
P6SM. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS THOUGH MID EVENING.

AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CIGS SOUTH OF I70 AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KPUB 161738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRES TROUGH WAS MOVING
ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WAS PUMPING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND 4 CORNERS
REGION...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE W. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHILE THE APPROACHING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. HEALTHY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BRINGING ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS TO THE CONTDVD. NEW SNOW AMOUNTS BY LATE TONIGHT MAY
ADD UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE SW MTS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MT AREAS RECEIVING UP TO AN INCH. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING W-SW
ALOFT WILL DO BATTLE WITH LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
40S...WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD AREA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...30S TO AROUND 40F ARE
FORECAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...TEENS TO LOWER
20S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NAM12 FOR
THURSDAY. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF
COMES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE SNOW ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE ATMOS WILL ALREADY BE SATURATED.
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON...AND QPF AND SNOW ACCUMS
FROM THE NAM LOOK VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. WITH MAJORITY OF THE
FORCING STILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST...THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...THOUGH CERTAINLY CAN RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. FOR THE SE
PLAINS...WILL SEE GRADUALLY THICKENING CLOUD COVER...BUT IT WILL
TAKE TIME FOR LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP. AS EVENING APPROACHES
AND A SECOND WAVE EJECTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CO/NRN NM...WE SHOULD
FINALLY SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING AND WAA/OVERRUNNING TO SPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
ACCUMULATION. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BUT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE 2-4 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPPER TROF DRAGS ACROSS CO THURS/THURSDAY NIGHT.  STILL LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD...THOUGH FOCUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SW MTS INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR FOR
THURS/THURSDAY EVENING...WITH NAM12 MUCH HEAVIER WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUN.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE
NAM WHICH RESULTED A PERIOD OF LIGHT NE UPSLOPE FLOW AT H7. SINCE
ITS THE OUTLIER...GENERALLY WENT CLOSER TO AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE MTNS AND
PLAINS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST WITH A
COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. EVENT SHOULD
WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND 4-8 INCHES ALONG THE CONTDVD.  THIS IS GETTING CLOSE TO A LOW
END ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 2-4 INCHES EVERY 12
HOUR PERIOD...NOT SURE THE IMPACT WILL JUSTIFY A HEADLINE JUST YET.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS...GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS ABOVE 10KFT. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER TROF IS ADVERTISED
BY GFS TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM VARIES SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO
RUN...WITH 06Z RUN OF THE GFS STRONGER THAN THE 00Z RUN. ECMWF IS
MUCH DRIER WITH A WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF MOVING ACROSS.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE...AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRES TROUGH WAS MOVING
ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WAS PUMPING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND 4 CORNERS
REGION...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE W. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHILE THE APPROACHING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. HEALTHY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BRINGING ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS TO THE CONTDVD. NEW SNOW AMOUNTS BY LATE TONIGHT MAY
ADD UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE SW MTS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MT AREAS RECEIVING UP TO AN INCH. AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING W-SW
ALOFT WILL DO BATTLE WITH LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
40S...WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD AREA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...30S TO AROUND 40F ARE
FORECAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...TEENS TO LOWER
20S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NAM12 FOR
THURSDAY. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF
COMES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE SNOW ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE ATMOS WILL ALREADY BE SATURATED.
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON...AND QPF AND SNOW ACCUMS
FROM THE NAM LOOK VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. WITH MAJORITY OF THE
FORCING STILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST...THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...THOUGH CERTAINLY CAN RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. FOR THE SE
PLAINS...WILL SEE GRADUALLY THICKENING CLOUD COVER...BUT IT WILL
TAKE TIME FOR LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP. AS EVENING APPROACHES
AND A SECOND WAVE EJECTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CO/NRN NM...WE SHOULD
FINALLY SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING AND WAA/OVERRUNNING TO SPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
ACCUMULATION. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BUT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE 2-4 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPPER TROF DRAGS ACROSS CO THURS/THURSDAY NIGHT.  STILL LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD...THOUGH FOCUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SW MTS INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR FOR
THURS/THURSDAY EVENING...WITH NAM12 MUCH HEAVIER WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUN.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE
NAM WHICH RESULTED A PERIOD OF LIGHT NE UPSLOPE FLOW AT H7. SINCE
ITS THE OUTLIER...GENERALLY WENT CLOSER TO AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE MTNS AND
PLAINS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST WITH A
COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. EVENT SHOULD
WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND 4-8 INCHES ALONG THE CONTDVD.  THIS IS GETTING CLOSE TO A LOW
END ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 2-4 INCHES EVERY 12
HOUR PERIOD...NOT SURE THE IMPACT WILL JUSTIFY A HEADLINE JUST YET.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS...GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS ABOVE 10KFT. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER TROF IS ADVERTISED
BY GFS TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM VARIES SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO
RUN...WITH 06Z RUN OF THE GFS STRONGER THAN THE 00Z RUN. ECMWF IS
MUCH DRIER WITH A WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF MOVING ACROSS.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE...AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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