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000
FXUS65 KPUB 291151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
551 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN WV
PLUME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN CO.  MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC DETAILS...WITH UPPER FORCING
STRONGER TODAY AS WAVE OVER WRN CO ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS
CO.  AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...AND EVEN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST
WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...QUITE MOIST FOR
THESE AREAS.  PRECIP WATERS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND .65 TO 1.0 ACROSS
THE MTS/VALLEYS...AND BETWEEN 1.0 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SO THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

THERE ARE ALWAYS CHALLENGES IN THE DETAILS...AND MODEL QPFS ARE NOT
ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH WHERE TO PUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.  THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IF FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND
UPPER LIFT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO.
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE ADJACENT
VALLEYS/PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TWO BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE COMING ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...WHILE A SECOND MAXIMA SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS
INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHERE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET UPGLIDES OVER
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH.  SO OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY END UP WITH THE
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS.  THIS HEIGHTENED CONCERN AREA INCLUDES THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND PALMER DIVIDE.

HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS MORNING FROM WHAT THE
CONSENSUS MODELS SUGGESTED.  BUT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HRRR...NAM12...AND RAP13 ALSO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IT TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 AND
CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION...WITH NSSL 4KM WRF
HOLDING THIS OFF UNTIL AFTER 03Z. TIMING VARIES SLIGHTLY WITH OTHER
HIGH RES MODELS...BUT OVERNIGHT APPEARS MCS WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHICH WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF THE CONCERNS FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  CAPE VALUES COULD ACHIEVE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEARS
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND PRESENCE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MEAN A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS WELL.  EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
COVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS REPORTS
OF STREAM FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OFF THE SANGRES OCCURRED
TONIGHT.  GREATEST THREAT MAY BE MORE ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...BUT
REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE
GIVEN THE SET UP. -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO ISSUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
PRIMARILY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY(INCLUDING
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL) FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED/EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEN...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...PRIMARILY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND AREA BURN SCARS AFTER WEDNESDAY...AS PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.O TO 1.5 INCH RANGE
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE NEEDED HIGHLIGHTS...
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS NEEDED.

FINALLY...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING.  KALS HAS SEEN SOME
PATCHY IFR STRATUS EARLIER TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS OT THE EAST OF KCOS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT BASED
ON LATEST SAT/FOG PRODUCTS IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF KCOS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS AFTER
20Z.  LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS IN +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE A
PREVAILING GROUP TO INDICATE A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.  TIMING WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS EVENT
UNFOLDS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE VFR
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR
TO EVEN PATCHY IFR RANGE TOWARDS MORNING.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KALS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS LEAD TO
SATURATED SOILS IN MANY PLACES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.  WITH FORCING COMING IN LATER TODAY...COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THEN SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS WILL BE BURN SCARS...STEEP TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS (PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION). AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TONIGHT INTO THE FRONT RANGE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WARM RAIN PROCESSES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SEEMS MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AGAIN. MEANWHILE...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TO THE EAST OF I-25 WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH STREAM FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WATER FROM INTENSE RAINFALL FINDS ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DRAINAGES.  ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
TOWARDS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THIS WATER
ROUTES DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ058>071.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
551 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN WV
PLUME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN CO.  MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC DETAILS...WITH UPPER FORCING
STRONGER TODAY AS WAVE OVER WRN CO ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS
CO.  AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...AND EVEN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST
WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...QUITE MOIST FOR
THESE AREAS.  PRECIP WATERS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND .65 TO 1.0 ACROSS
THE MTS/VALLEYS...AND BETWEEN 1.0 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SO THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

THERE ARE ALWAYS CHALLENGES IN THE DETAILS...AND MODEL QPFS ARE NOT
ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH WHERE TO PUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.  THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IF FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND
UPPER LIFT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO.
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE ADJACENT
VALLEYS/PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TWO BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE COMING ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...WHILE A SECOND MAXIMA SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS
INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHERE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET UPGLIDES OVER
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH.  SO OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY END UP WITH THE
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS.  THIS HEIGHTENED CONCERN AREA INCLUDES THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND PALMER DIVIDE.

HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS MORNING FROM WHAT THE
CONSENSUS MODELS SUGGESTED.  BUT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HRRR...NAM12...AND RAP13 ALSO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RATON
MESA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IT TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 AND
CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION...WITH NSSL 4KM WRF
HOLDING THIS OFF UNTIL AFTER 03Z. TIMING VARIES SLIGHTLY WITH OTHER
HIGH RES MODELS...BUT OVERNIGHT APPEARS MCS WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO SW KS AND TX/OK WHICH WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF THE CONCERNS FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  CAPE VALUES COULD ACHIEVE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEARS
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND PRESENCE OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MEAN A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS WELL.  EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
COVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS REPORTS
OF STREAM FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OFF THE SANGRES OCCURRED
TONIGHT.  GREATEST THREAT MAY BE MORE ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...BUT
REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE
GIVEN THE SET UP. -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO ISSUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
PRIMARILY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY(INCLUDING
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL) FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED/EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEN...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM...PRIMARILY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND AREA BURN SCARS AFTER WEDNESDAY...AS PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.O TO 1.5 INCH RANGE
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE NEEDED HIGHLIGHTS...
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS NEEDED.

FINALLY...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING.  KALS HAS SEEN SOME
PATCHY IFR STRATUS EARLIER TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS OT THE EAST OF KCOS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT BASED
ON LATEST SAT/FOG PRODUCTS IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF KCOS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS AFTER
20Z.  LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS IN +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE A
PREVAILING GROUP TO INDICATE A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.  TIMING WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS EVENT
UNFOLDS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE VFR
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR
TO EVEN PATCHY IFR RANGE TOWARDS MORNING.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KALS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS LEAD TO
SATURATED SOILS IN MANY PLACES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.  WITH FORCING COMING IN LATER TODAY...COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THEN SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS WILL BE BURN SCARS...STEEP TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS (PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION). AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TONIGHT INTO THE FRONT RANGE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WARM RAIN PROCESSES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SEEMS MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AGAIN. MEANWHILE...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TO THE EAST OF I-25 WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH STREAM FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WATER FROM INTENSE RAINFALL FINDS ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DRAINAGES.  ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
TOWARDS MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THIS WATER
ROUTES DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ058>071.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 291003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FCST THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT IS RATHER COMPLICATED.  THERE IS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SWRN UTAH WHICH IS MOVING NNE
WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY OVER NERN UTAH.  OVERALL THIS
FEATURE OVER NERN UTAH MAY BE THE ONE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO NRN CO BY TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE OVER SERN CO AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO NRN CO THIS EVENING.

SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN THE MTNS AND THEN IN AND
NR THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
BY LATE AFTN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO
1.25 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH VALUES POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES
TONIGHT OVER NERN CO IF GFS IS CORRECT.  THUS ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT IF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS GOING TO DVLP WILL
HAVE TO GET WRM CORE RAIN PROCESSES TO TAKE OVER FM MID EVENING THRU
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A WK 700 MB
CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT
AND WILL COMBINE WITH WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO TO ENHANCE ELY LOW
LVL FLOW IN AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO FAR THE NAM...ECMWF AND
THE SREF PLUMES ARE FOCUSING ON AREAS FM BOULDER COUNTY INTO LARIMER
COUNTY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WOUND UP 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE ERN PLAINS WHICH FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST RAINS AWAY FM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  NATURALLY IF THE WRM RAIN PROCESSES GET GOING AFTER SUNSET
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD CAN ADD UP QUICKLY AS WE SAW
LAST SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND MAYBE THE WETTEST. THE MOIST AIRMASS IS GOING TO REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE STATE WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO ALMOST 600 MB. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS FROM EACH OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW AT LEAST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE UPSLOPE FLOW
TO CONTINUE LIFTING THE AIRMASS...RELEASING THE INSTABILITY
THROUGH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM SHOW A SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC
AIRMASS...REMINISCENT OF THE SHAPE SEEN DURING WINTER STORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE AN INCH
WITH AN ALMOST 8000 FOOT DEEP WARM LAYER. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRESENT. WILL CARRY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE VERY COMPLICATED BUT
WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MAY
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SETS UP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LADEN WITH GULF
MOISTURE...ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THE RESULT. BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL
ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WILL TREND WIND FCST TOWARDS HRRR THRU MID AFTN WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE ELY BY 18Z.  AFT 21Z MAY SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM FOOTHILLS
CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS TRIGGERING SCT TSTMS.  IF THE AIRPORT TAKES A
DIRECT HIT THEN COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILTIES UP TO AN HOUR AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.  FOR
TONIGHT NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO EVOLVE.  COULD SEE A STEADY
RAIN EVENT DVLP WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS MAY FOCUS. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF THE WARM
RAIN PROCESSES KICK IN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN A
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WITH
EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FCST THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT IS RATHER COMPLICATED.  THERE IS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SWRN UTAH WHICH IS MOVING NNE
WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY OVER NERN UTAH.  OVERALL THIS
FEATURE OVER NERN UTAH MAY BE THE ONE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO NRN CO BY TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL BE OVER SERN CO AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO NRN CO THIS EVENING.

SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN THE MTNS AND THEN IN AND
NR THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
BY LATE AFTN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO
1.25 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH VALUES POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES
TONIGHT OVER NERN CO IF GFS IS CORRECT.  THUS ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT IF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS GOING TO DVLP WILL
HAVE TO GET WRM CORE RAIN PROCESSES TO TAKE OVER FM MID EVENING THRU
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A WK 700 MB
CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT
AND WILL COMBINE WITH WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO TO ENHANCE ELY LOW
LVL FLOW IN AND NR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO FAR THE NAM...ECMWF AND
THE SREF PLUMES ARE FOCUSING ON AREAS FM BOULDER COUNTY INTO LARIMER
COUNTY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WOUND UP 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE ERN PLAINS WHICH FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST RAINS AWAY FM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  NATURALLY IF THE WRM RAIN PROCESSES GET GOING AFTER SUNSET
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD CAN ADD UP QUICKLY AS WE SAW
LAST SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND MAYBE THE WETTEST. THE MOIST AIRMASS IS GOING TO REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE STATE WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO ALMOST 600 MB. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS FROM EACH OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW AT LEAST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE UPSLOPE FLOW
TO CONTINUE LIFTING THE AIRMASS...RELEASING THE INSTABILITY
THROUGH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM SHOW A SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC
AIRMASS...REMINISCENT OF THE SHAPE SEEN DURING WINTER STORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE AN INCH
WITH AN ALMOST 8000 FOOT DEEP WARM LAYER. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRESENT. WILL CARRY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE VERY COMPLICATED BUT
WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MAY
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SETS UP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LADEN WITH GULF
MOISTURE...ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THE RESULT. BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL
ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WILL TREND WIND FCST TOWARDS HRRR THRU MID AFTN WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE ELY BY 18Z.  AFT 21Z MAY SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM FOOTHILLS
CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS TRIGGERING SCT TSTMS.  IF THE AIRPORT TAKES A
DIRECT HIT THEN COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILTIES UP TO AN HOUR AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.  FOR
TONIGHT NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO EVOLVE.  COULD SEE A STEADY
RAIN EVENT DVLP WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS MAY FOCUS. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF THE WARM
RAIN PROCESSES KICK IN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN A
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WITH
EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 291000
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND A LARGE
PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO. DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRED AT KGJT AND SURROUNDING
AREAS. INTENSITY APPEARED TO BE WANING ALONG WITH AREAL COVERAGE
...THOUGH EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND
SUNRISE.

ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DEPTH
WILL BE NEAR ITS PEAK WITH THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE. SIMILARLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH AND WILL PROBABLY COME IN NEAR 1.2 INCHES
IN THE 12Z/GJT SOUNDING. COMBINE THIS DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE WELL
ADVERTISED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING SEEMS CERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND SOUTHEAST UTAH. NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS MODELS INDICATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIMITED SO SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO THE WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DOMINATE. MET
GUIDANCE BETTER THAN MAV YESTERDAY...BUT STILL TOO COOL FOR THE
MOST PART. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE TWO.

TODAY/S SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STILL EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHWEST CO THROUGH WED MID-MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS EVENING...THE
POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MORE THAN THE USUAL NOCTURNAL
PRECIPITATION ON-GOING INTO WED MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BRUSHING OUR EASTERN
EDGE. EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER THE STILL NEARBY SHORTWAVE COMBINED
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP GOOD
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AGAIN EXPECT THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY.
AND WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY AGAIN BE
A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE DRYING TREND WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH SATURDAY AS OUR
SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS PUSHED WEST BY THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. THIS IS A LESS FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BUT EXPECT THAT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH LESS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND ON THU. HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
NORMAL.

COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
MODELS PICKING UP ON AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WEST-CENTRAL
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY...DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER AREA TAF SITES FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z/WED. A MAJORITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY. IN ADDITION... SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE. THERE WILL
BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z BUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES ARE LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW CO
AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ001>014-017>020-022-023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ023>025-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH/NL
AVIATION...NL
HYDROLOGY...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 291000
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND A LARGE
PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO. DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRED AT KGJT AND SURROUNDING
AREAS. INTENSITY APPEARED TO BE WANING ALONG WITH AREAL COVERAGE
...THOUGH EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND
SUNRISE.

ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DEPTH
WILL BE NEAR ITS PEAK WITH THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE. SIMILARLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH AND WILL PROBABLY COME IN NEAR 1.2 INCHES
IN THE 12Z/GJT SOUNDING. COMBINE THIS DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE WELL
ADVERTISED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING SEEMS CERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND SOUTHEAST UTAH. NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS MODELS INDICATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIMITED SO SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO THE WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DOMINATE. MET
GUIDANCE BETTER THAN MAV YESTERDAY...BUT STILL TOO COOL FOR THE
MOST PART. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE TWO.

TODAY/S SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STILL EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHWEST CO THROUGH WED MID-MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS EVENING...THE
POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MORE THAN THE USUAL NOCTURNAL
PRECIPITATION ON-GOING INTO WED MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BRUSHING OUR EASTERN
EDGE. EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER THE STILL NEARBY SHORTWAVE COMBINED
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP GOOD
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AGAIN EXPECT THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY.
AND WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY AGAIN BE
A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE DRYING TREND WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH SATURDAY AS OUR
SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS PUSHED WEST BY THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. THIS IS A LESS FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BUT EXPECT THAT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH LESS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND ON THU. HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
NORMAL.

COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
MODELS PICKING UP ON AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WEST-CENTRAL
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY...DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER AREA TAF SITES FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z/WED. A MAJORITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY. IN ADDITION... SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE. THERE WILL
BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z BUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES ARE LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW CO
AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ001>014-017>020-022-023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ023>025-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH/NL
AVIATION...NL
HYDROLOGY...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 290651
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1251 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THOUGH MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES HAS PASSED.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT ON MONDAY TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT AS THE LATEST MONSOONAL SURGE
CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONVECTION FIRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THAT COVERED SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FIRE WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND STORMS WILL
ADVECT NORTH FROM NEW MEXICO AND AZ...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NORTH WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE. BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING/S STORMS...WITH 1 INCH PLUS PW STILL IN PLACE IN MANY
AREAS AND SATURATION SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH TO PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
05Z THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THE RESIDUAL STORMS WILL
DIMINISH TO MONSOON-TYPE NIGHTTIME RAINERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE INTERESTING. THE MOISTURE
AXIS RIDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TEXAS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLIDE NORTH AND A BIT EAST. HIGH PW AND CAPE AREA PROJECTED
OVER CENTRAL AND NW CO AND NE UTAH. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCLUDING UT PUBLIC ZONES 22
AND 29 AND CO ZONE 21.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RIDGE TEMPORARILY DEFLATED ON WEDNESDAY BY PASSAGE OF THE SHEARING
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL NEAR 1 INCH ON WED AND RESULTANT
300 MB DEFORMATION AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NW CO TO SE CO SHOULD SERVE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STORMS ELSEWHERE...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN SE UT.

RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
MONSOONAL PLUME DISRUPTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL GET
RECYCLED THROUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME HINT OF A WEAK WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS FLOAT RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE EAST SUN-MON...WHICH WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS BACK UP BY MONDAY AS RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
DROPPING VSBY DOWN TO 2 MILES AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME ONLY LOOKS
LIKE KMTJ WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AS RADAR INDICATING HEAVIER
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THAT TAF SITE. REMAINING SITES WILL SEE
MID LEVEL CIGS WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A QUICK SHOWER THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE CONCERN. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL DROP FLT
CATEGORIES TO IFR AT TIMES WITH ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN.
CONVECTION WILL START AROUND 17 TO 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SW CO AND SE
UTAH...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW
CO AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ001>014-017>020-022-023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ023>025-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290651
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1251 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THOUGH MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES HAS PASSED.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT ON MONDAY TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT AS THE LATEST MONSOONAL SURGE
CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONVECTION FIRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THAT COVERED SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FIRE WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND STORMS WILL
ADVECT NORTH FROM NEW MEXICO AND AZ...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NORTH WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE. BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING/S STORMS...WITH 1 INCH PLUS PW STILL IN PLACE IN MANY
AREAS AND SATURATION SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH TO PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
05Z THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THE RESIDUAL STORMS WILL
DIMINISH TO MONSOON-TYPE NIGHTTIME RAINERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE INTERESTING. THE MOISTURE
AXIS RIDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TEXAS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLIDE NORTH AND A BIT EAST. HIGH PW AND CAPE AREA PROJECTED
OVER CENTRAL AND NW CO AND NE UTAH. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCLUDING UT PUBLIC ZONES 22
AND 29 AND CO ZONE 21.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RIDGE TEMPORARILY DEFLATED ON WEDNESDAY BY PASSAGE OF THE SHEARING
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL NEAR 1 INCH ON WED AND RESULTANT
300 MB DEFORMATION AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NW CO TO SE CO SHOULD SERVE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STORMS ELSEWHERE...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN SE UT.

RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
MONSOONAL PLUME DISRUPTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL GET
RECYCLED THROUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME HINT OF A WEAK WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS FLOAT RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE EAST SUN-MON...WHICH WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS BACK UP BY MONDAY AS RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
DROPPING VSBY DOWN TO 2 MILES AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME ONLY LOOKS
LIKE KMTJ WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AS RADAR INDICATING HEAVIER
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THAT TAF SITE. REMAINING SITES WILL SEE
MID LEVEL CIGS WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A QUICK SHOWER THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE CONCERN. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL DROP FLT
CATEGORIES TO IFR AT TIMES WITH ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN.
CONVECTION WILL START AROUND 17 TO 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SW CO AND SE
UTAH...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW
CO AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ001>014-017>020-022-023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ023>025-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. STARK

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL AT THE TAF SITES TODAY SO HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL BE LOW SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE BY
12Z TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL THE TAF LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. STARK

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...STARK




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. STARK

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL AT THE TAF SITES TODAY SO HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL BE LOW SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE BY
12Z TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL THE TAF LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. STARK

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...STARK



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290443
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1043 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONVECTION FIRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THAT COVERED SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FIRE WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND STORMS WILL
ADVECT NORTH FROM NEW MEXICO AND AZ...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NORTH WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE. BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING/S STORMS...WITH 1 INCH PLUS PW STILL IN PLACE IN MANY
AREAS AND SATURATION SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH TO PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
05Z THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THE RESIDUAL STORMS WILL
DIMINISH TO MONSOON-TYPE NIGHTTIME RAINERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE INTERESTING. THE MOISTURE
AXIS RIDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TEXAS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLIDE NORTH AND A BIT EAST. HIGH PW AND CAPE AREA PROJECTED
OVER CENTRAL AND NW CO AND NE UTAH. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCLUDING UT PUBLIC ZONES 22
AND 29 AND CO ZONE 21.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RIDGE TEMPORARILY DEFLATED ON WEDNESDAY BY PASSAGE OF THE SHEARING
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL NEAR 1 INCH ON WED AND RESULTANT
300 MB DEFORMATION AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NW CO TO SE CO SHOULD SERVE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STORMS ELSEWHERE...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN SE UT.

RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
MONSOONAL PLUME DISRUPTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL GET
RECYCLED THROUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME HINT OF A WEAK WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS FLOAT RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE EAST SUN-MON...WHICH WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS BACK UP BY MONDAY AS RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
DROPPING VSBY DOWN TO 2 MILES AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME ONLY LOOKS
LIKE KMTJ WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AS RADAR INDICATING HEAVIER
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THAT TAF SITE. REMAINING SITES WILL SEE
MID LEVEL CIGS WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A QUICK SHOWER THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE CONCERN. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL DROP FLT
CATEGORIES TO IFR AT TIMES WITH ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN.
CONVECTION WILL START AROUND 17 TO 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SW CO AND SE
UTAH...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW
CO AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ001>014-017>020-022-023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ006-009-011-
     012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ023>025-027-028.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290443
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1043 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONVECTION FIRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THAT COVERED SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FIRE WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND STORMS WILL
ADVECT NORTH FROM NEW MEXICO AND AZ...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NORTH WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE. BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING/S STORMS...WITH 1 INCH PLUS PW STILL IN PLACE IN MANY
AREAS AND SATURATION SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH TO PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
05Z THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THE RESIDUAL STORMS WILL
DIMINISH TO MONSOON-TYPE NIGHTTIME RAINERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE INTERESTING. THE MOISTURE
AXIS RIDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TEXAS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLIDE NORTH AND A BIT EAST. HIGH PW AND CAPE AREA PROJECTED
OVER CENTRAL AND NW CO AND NE UTAH. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCLUDING UT PUBLIC ZONES 22
AND 29 AND CO ZONE 21.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RIDGE TEMPORARILY DEFLATED ON WEDNESDAY BY PASSAGE OF THE SHEARING
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL NEAR 1 INCH ON WED AND RESULTANT
300 MB DEFORMATION AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NW CO TO SE CO SHOULD SERVE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STORMS ELSEWHERE...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN SE UT.

RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
MONSOONAL PLUME DISRUPTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL GET
RECYCLED THROUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME HINT OF A WEAK WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS FLOAT RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE EAST SUN-MON...WHICH WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS BACK UP BY MONDAY AS RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
DROPPING VSBY DOWN TO 2 MILES AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME ONLY LOOKS
LIKE KMTJ WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AS RADAR INDICATING HEAVIER
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THAT TAF SITE. REMAINING SITES WILL SEE
MID LEVEL CIGS WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A QUICK SHOWER THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE CONCERN. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL DROP FLT
CATEGORIES TO IFR AT TIMES WITH ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN.
CONVECTION WILL START AROUND 17 TO 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SW CO AND SE
UTAH...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW
CO AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ001>014-017>020-022-023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ006-009-011-
     012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ023>025-027-028.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 290343
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY TO WESTERN LOGAN COUNTY CONTINUES TO
SHRINK IN SIZE AND INTENSITY AT THIS HOUR. NOT ALL THAT SURE WHY
THIS COLLECTION OF STORMS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. ONE PARTICULAR STORM SAT STATIONARY
OVER THE TOWN OF NUNN IN NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY FOR ABOUT TWO
HOURS. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A NUMBER OF DIRT ROADS
EITHER WASHED OVER OR WASHED OUT IN THE AREA FROM ABOUT 3 INCHES
OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR. THAT STORM HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...
HOWEVER A COUPLE MORE STORMS HAVE JUST FORMED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY AND BARE WATCHING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A OLD WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE GREAT DENVER METRO AREA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME INDICATION THAT PARTS OF THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING
AROUND SUNRISE. LATEST DATA DOES NOT INDICATE THIS HAPPENING EVEN
WITH THE INCREASING MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
SOME DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. STEERING WINDS TO BE WEAK...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS
EXPECTED. WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ON WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH GOOD UPSLOPE UP TO ABOUT 650
MB. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. BY AFTERNOON...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH MODELS
SHOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY.
STEERING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...SO STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
MOVING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTH NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BETWEEN 0.60 AND
0.70 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SOME MORNING LOW LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS FOG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THREAT FOR FLOODING LOOKS LOW. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HINTS OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EARLIER THOUGH THE STORMS UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY WOULD DRIFT SOUTH CLIPPING DIA AND POSSIBLY
APA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. DON/T SEE THAT HAPPENING NOW. SO
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THEIR TAFS. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AROUND SUNSET...LATEST DATA NO LONGER INDICATES LOW CIGS.
AS IT LOOKS NOW DO ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP/STORM ACTIVITY IN THE
DENVER AREA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOES INTO EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER FOR THE NIGHT. LAST OF THE STORMS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES SHOWING
SIGNS OF COLLAPSING. MODELS ONLY SHOW POCKETS OF LIGHT QPF/PRECIP
AMTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER PARK COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTER 3/4TH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS
REMAIN QUITE BULLISH REGARDING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. GREATEST
AMOUNTS STILL STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. OF COURSE THIS CAN EASILY
SHIFT WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 290343
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY TO WESTERN LOGAN COUNTY CONTINUES TO
SHRINK IN SIZE AND INTENSITY AT THIS HOUR. NOT ALL THAT SURE WHY
THIS COLLECTION OF STORMS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. ONE PARTICULAR STORM SAT STATIONARY
OVER THE TOWN OF NUNN IN NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY FOR ABOUT TWO
HOURS. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A NUMBER OF DIRT ROADS
EITHER WASHED OVER OR WASHED OUT IN THE AREA FROM ABOUT 3 INCHES
OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR. THAT STORM HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...
HOWEVER A COUPLE MORE STORMS HAVE JUST FORMED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY AND BARE WATCHING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A OLD WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE GREAT DENVER METRO AREA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME INDICATION THAT PARTS OF THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING
AROUND SUNRISE. LATEST DATA DOES NOT INDICATE THIS HAPPENING EVEN
WITH THE INCREASING MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
SOME DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. STEERING WINDS TO BE WEAK...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS
EXPECTED. WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ON WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH GOOD UPSLOPE UP TO ABOUT 650
MB. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. BY AFTERNOON...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH MODELS
SHOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY.
STEERING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...SO STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
MOVING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTH NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BETWEEN 0.60 AND
0.70 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SOME MORNING LOW LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS FOG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THREAT FOR FLOODING LOOKS LOW. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HINTS OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EARLIER THOUGH THE STORMS UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY WOULD DRIFT SOUTH CLIPPING DIA AND POSSIBLY
APA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. DON/T SEE THAT HAPPENING NOW. SO
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THEIR TAFS. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AROUND SUNSET...LATEST DATA NO LONGER INDICATES LOW CIGS.
AS IT LOOKS NOW DO ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP/STORM ACTIVITY IN THE
DENVER AREA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOES INTO EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER FOR THE NIGHT. LAST OF THE STORMS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES SHOWING
SIGNS OF COLLAPSING. MODELS ONLY SHOW POCKETS OF LIGHT QPF/PRECIP
AMTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER PARK COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTER 3/4TH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS
REMAIN QUITE BULLISH REGARDING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. GREATEST
AMOUNTS STILL STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. OF COURSE THIS CAN EASILY
SHIFT WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 290337
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
937 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS.  SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087-088-094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290337
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
937 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING SHOW MUCH LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING EL PASO...PUEBLO AND TELLER COUNTIES. AREAS
THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES DO SHOW THE
EFFECTS OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS IN HUERFANO COUNTY. BELIEVE
THAT ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS.  SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087-088-094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KGJT 282341
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
541 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONVECTION FIRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THAT COVERED SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FIRE WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND STORMS WILL
ADVECT NORTH FROM NEW MEXICO AND AZ...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NORTH WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE. BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING/S STORMS...WITH 1 INCH PLUS PW STILL IN PLACE IN MANY
AREAS AND SATURATION SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH TO PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
05Z THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THE RESIDUAL STORMS WILL
DIMINISH TO MONSOON-TYPE NIGHTTIME RAINERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE INTERESTING. THE MOISTURE
AXIS RIDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TEXAS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLIDE NORTH AND A BIT EAST. HIGH PW AND CAPE AREA PROJECTED
OVER CENTRAL AND NW CO AND NE UTAH. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCLUDING UT PUBLIC ZONES 22
AND 29 AND CO ZONE 21.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RIDGE TEMPORARILY DEFLATED ON WEDNESDAY BY PASSAGE OF THE SHEARING
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL NEAR 1 INCH ON WED AND RESULTANT
300 MB DEFORMATION AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NW CO TO SE CO SHOULD SERVE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STORMS ELSEWHERE...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN SE UT.

RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
MONSOONAL PLUME DISRUPTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL GET
RECYCLED THROUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME HINT OF A WEAK WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS FLOAT RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE EAST SUN-MON...WHICH WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS BACK UP BY MONDAY AS RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT STORMS STILL FIRING THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH ALSO STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION.
MOST PRECIP WILL DIE DOWN BY 06Z THOUGH THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS
SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TS AND VCTS
CONTINUE AT MANY TAF SITES AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z. EVEN BETTER CHANCES TOMORROW AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND A STRONGER WAVE CAUSES CONVECTION YET
AGAIN. IFR TO MVFR EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
ABOUT 18Z THROUGH 06Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PREDOMINANT
WITH SOME LOWER CIGS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SW CO AND SE
UTAH...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW
CO AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ001>014-017>020-022-023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ006-009-011-
     012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ023>025-027-028.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 282146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
346 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONVECTION FIRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THAT COVERED SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FIRE WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND STORMS WILL
ADVECT NORTH FROM NEW MEXICO AND AZ...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NORTH WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE. BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING/S STORMS...WITH 1 INCH PLUS PW STILL IN PLACE IN MANY
AREAS AND SATURATION SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH TO PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
05Z THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THE RESIDUAL STORMS WILL
DIMINISH TO MONSOON-TYPE NIGHTTIME RAINERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE INTERESTING. THE MOISTURE
AXIS RIDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TEXAS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLIDE NORTH AND A BIT EAST. HIGH PW AND CAPE AREA PROJECTED
OVER CENTRAL AND NW CO AND NE UTAH. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCLUDING UT PUBLIC ZONES 22
AND 29 AND CO ZONE 21.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RIDGE TEMPORARILY DEFLATED ON WEDNESDAY BY PASSAGE OF THE SHEARING
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL NEAR 1 INCH ON WED AND RESULTANT
300 MB DEFORMATION AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NW CO TO SE CO SHOULD SERVE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STORMS ELSEWHERE...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN SE UT.

RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
MONSOONAL PLUME DISRUPTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL GET
RECYCLED THROUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME HINT OF A WEAK WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS FLOAT RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE EAST SUN-MON...WHICH WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS BACK UP BY MONDAY AS RESULT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALREADY OVER THE AREA WILL FUEL SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO WIDESPREAD
RAINSHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...
SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH
OR MORE. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF
SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER.

TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS NE
UTAH...AND NW AND CENTRAL COLORADO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SW CO AND SE
UTAH...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW
CO AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ001>014-017>020-022-023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ006-009-011-
     012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ023>025-027-028.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC
HYDROLOGY...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282144
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
INTO MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROUND THE RIDGE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE STATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND ONE INCH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING
THE BIGGEST THREAT. APPEARS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE SOME WHAT
CAPPED SO WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THOUGH THE
TREAT IS LOW.

WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...STORMS WILL END LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS DAY
BREAK DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS...BUT SOME DRY AIR COULD PREVENT
THIS.

THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY FORM LATE TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REACH AN INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS... 1.25 ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ON THE PLAINS. CAPES WILL REACH 500 TO 1000
J/KG...THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DIRECTION SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS...WITH STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN WHERE ONE INCH OF RAINFALL COULD FALL IN AS LITTLE AS 15-20
MINUTES FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE HIGH AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
SOME DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. STEERING WINDS TO BE WEAK...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS
EXPECTED. WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ON WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH GOOD UPSLOPE UP TO ABOUT 650
MB. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. BY AFTERNOON...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH MODELS
SHOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY.
STEERING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...SO STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
MOVING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTH NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BETWEEN 0.60 AND
0.70 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SOME MORNING LOW LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS FOG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THREAT FOR FLOODING LOOKS LOW. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HINTS OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION MAY CHANGE A TIME OR TWO
DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH DRY AIR COULD PREVENT THIS
FROM HAPPENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE DENVER AIRPORTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER 19Z. HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AIRMASS IS MOIST TODAY AND STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING WHICH IS
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE
THE AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SO THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MUCH HIGHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE BOXES HAVE BEEN CHECKED FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THEY
INCLUDE...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
THE 99TH PERCENTILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OF 8000-9000 FEET...DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW
UP TO 650 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN UPSLOPE FLOW AND HELP STORMS
REGENERATE/TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST
OF WEDNESDAY.

GRADUAL DRYING STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH THE FLOOD RISK SHOULD BE LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...D-L/MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 282144
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
INTO MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROUND THE RIDGE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE STATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND ONE INCH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING
THE BIGGEST THREAT. APPEARS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE SOME WHAT
CAPPED SO WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THOUGH THE
TREAT IS LOW.

WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...STORMS WILL END LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS DAY
BREAK DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS...BUT SOME DRY AIR COULD PREVENT
THIS.

THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY FORM LATE TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REACH AN INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS... 1.25 ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ON THE PLAINS. CAPES WILL REACH 500 TO 1000
J/KG...THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DIRECTION SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS...WITH STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN WHERE ONE INCH OF RAINFALL COULD FALL IN AS LITTLE AS 15-20
MINUTES FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE HIGH AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
SOME DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. STEERING WINDS TO BE WEAK...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS
EXPECTED. WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ON WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH GOOD UPSLOPE UP TO ABOUT 650
MB. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. BY AFTERNOON...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH MODELS
SHOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH INCREASING LIFT. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY.
STEERING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT...SO STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
MOVING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTH NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BETWEEN 0.60 AND
0.70 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SOME MORNING LOW LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS FOG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THREAT FOR FLOODING LOOKS LOW. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TO BE A BIT
WARMER...WITH READINGS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HINTS OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION MAY CHANGE A TIME OR TWO
DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH DRY AIR COULD PREVENT THIS
FROM HAPPENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE DENVER AIRPORTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER 19Z. HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AIRMASS IS MOIST TODAY AND STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING WHICH IS
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE
THE AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SO THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MUCH HIGHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE BOXES HAVE BEEN CHECKED FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THEY
INCLUDE...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
THE 99TH PERCENTILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OF 8000-9000 FEET...DEEP
SKINNY CAPE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW
UP TO 650 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN UPSLOPE FLOW AND HELP STORMS
REGENERATE/TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST
OF WEDNESDAY.

GRADUAL DRYING STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH THE FLOOD RISK SHOULD BE LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...D-L/MEIER




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282038
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
238 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS.  SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ064>068-
072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 282038
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
238 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MONSOON MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND OVER THE SERN PLAINS DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE HRRR...RAP...ARW AND NAM ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...SO WL
CUT BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS AREA.  MAIN PCPN FOCUS IN THE MODELS
FOR TONIGHT IS OVER THE ERN MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS)...THE SW MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL INCREASE THE POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND WL EXTEND HIGH POPS A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT OVR
THE SANGRES AND SW MTNS. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
LOT OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WHAT DOES DEVELOP WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT.  BURN SCARS WL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AREAS THAT GOT A LOT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT WL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THOSE AREAS AGAIN.

MONSOON MSTR WL STILL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL MSTR.  THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVR THE AREA.  WRN AREAS WL LIKELY SEE PCPN
ALREADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THE INCREASED
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NEWER HIGH RES MODEL DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED PERIOD. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MONSOONAL PLUME
IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY SAT IMAGERY...WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE. PREC H20 WILL REMAIN AT 1-1.5
INCHES OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF LAYER
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK
FOR WIDESPREAD MDT-HEAVY CONVECTION FROM TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NERN CO. IT
IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE THIS IN
LATE JULY...BUT THE TIMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS RATHER
UNUSUAL...AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHER THREAT POTENTIAL. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE N OR E WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
WILL LIKELY RULE OUT IN THIS CASE...AND IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT
ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCAL SPOTS THAT SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WALDO CANYON AREA...THE ERN SLOPES ALONG
THE SRN FRONT RANGE...URBAN CORRIDORS...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS SERN EL PASO COUNTY.
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT SWD TO THE SRN MTS AND RATON AREA BY WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE MAY SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHILE
STRESSING THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGH DURING THE ENTIRE
STRETCH.

THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY..AND THEN WE SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH SCT DIURNAL BASED
STORMS BEGINNING OVER THE MTS AND SPREADING OUT OVR THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TUE-WED...THREAT FOR
MORE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND BE
ALERT FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY OUR
OFFICE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY ENDING BEFORE 04Z AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT
CONTINUING LATER AT KALS.  SOME LOW STRATUS WL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITE TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...DECREASING CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>068-072>089-093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ064>068-
072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281742
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS THIS AFTERNOON. KCOS AND KPUB COULD SEE TSTMS END BEFORE
06Z...BUT MAY CONTINUE IN THE KALS A LITTLE LONGER. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS. LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN
THE AREA OF KCOS AND KPUB BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT THE TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281742
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS THIS AFTERNOON. KCOS AND KPUB COULD SEE TSTMS END BEFORE
06Z...BUT MAY CONTINUE IN THE KALS A LITTLE LONGER. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS. LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN
THE AREA OF KCOS AND KPUB BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT THE TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281702
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1102 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A DISTURBANCE OVER SW CO WILL FUEL INITIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN KAIB AND THE CITY OF GATEWAY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALREADY OVER
THE AREA WILL FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
STORMS WILL MOVE OVER AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH
03Z TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A MAJORITY OF TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR
VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE. THERE WILL BE A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ006-009-011-012-
     014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281702
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1102 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A DISTURBANCE OVER SW CO WILL FUEL INITIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN KAIB AND THE CITY OF GATEWAY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALREADY OVER
THE AREA WILL FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
STORMS WILL MOVE OVER AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH
03Z TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A MAJORITY OF TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR
VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE. THERE WILL BE A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ006-009-011-012-
     014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281623
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281623
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281623
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281623
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ064>068-072>089-
093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281546
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED IN AT THE
LOWER LEVELS TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS STILL
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND ONE INCH. BECAUSE OF
THE SUNNY SKIES...MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THIS MAY LEAD TO BECOMING A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND PLAN ON ONLY MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS SHOWING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. EXPECT POCKETS OF EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE RAIN WILL
END...COULD BE EARLY TO LATE WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
IS STILL LOOKING HIGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WOULD ENHANCE CYCLONE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.25
INCHES ON THE PLAINS...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MID LEVEL DRYING COMING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...PW VALUES BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WOULD
YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM STORMS...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. ALSO CONCERNED
THAT CAP MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CERTAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AS MOIST AIRMASS
SLOWLY GETS WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACTUALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE LATE AND WEAK Q-G FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...WITH SOME MODELS FOCUSED FROM LARIMER AND BOULDER
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND OTHERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WIDE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN ABOUT AN
18 HOUR PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY TERRAIN FOCUS...CONVECTION ON
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...OR TRAINING WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN BAND.
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TUESDAY EVENING LOOK REALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. DEEP MEAN
WIND IS LIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EASTERLY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BACK
BUILDING STORMS AND TERRAIN ANCHORING ON THE FOOTHILLS. IF
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS COULD PRODUCE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING REPEATED CONVECTION MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OR FURTHER EAST UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES...PROBABLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SAME STORY FOR
CAPE...DEEP SKINNY CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1000
J/KG WITH SOME OF THE EARLY CONVECTION. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOUT
AS GREAT AS WE GET...UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SO WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ESPECIALLY IN A BROADLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN AMOUNTS THAT SUSTAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A LITTLE EARLY FOR A
WATCH YET...THERE MAY BE MORE CLARITY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
LATER TODAY...BUT WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN OUR
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY PLACID AFTER THE MAIN RAIN AREA
EXITS. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO THAT...KEEPING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
INTO THE MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL POPS...BUT THINK THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AS THE NNW FLOW CONTINUES. PROBABLY
SOME MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL PROBABLY SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
AROUND 18Z AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE 21Z TO 02Z AT THE DENVER AIRPORTS. MAIN THREATS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER
18Z. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT A FEW TIMES TODAY DUE TO OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 11Z TO 16Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SHOWN TO BE NEAR 5000 FT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 1 INCH IN
20-30 MINUTES. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH INFLOW AND VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY SO
ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOOKING HIGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO PICK THE FOCUS...THOUGH AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MOST LIKELY. A WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON LARGER
CREEKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO
SOME DRYING AND REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281546
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED IN AT THE
LOWER LEVELS TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS STILL
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND ONE INCH. BECAUSE OF
THE SUNNY SKIES...MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THIS MAY LEAD TO BECOMING A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND PLAN ON ONLY MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS SHOWING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. EXPECT POCKETS OF EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE RAIN WILL
END...COULD BE EARLY TO LATE WEDNESDAY. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
IS STILL LOOKING HIGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WOULD ENHANCE CYCLONE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.25
INCHES ON THE PLAINS...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MID LEVEL DRYING COMING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...PW VALUES BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WOULD
YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM STORMS...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. ALSO CONCERNED
THAT CAP MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CERTAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AS MOIST AIRMASS
SLOWLY GETS WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACTUALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE LATE AND WEAK Q-G FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...WITH SOME MODELS FOCUSED FROM LARIMER AND BOULDER
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND OTHERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WIDE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN ABOUT AN
18 HOUR PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY TERRAIN FOCUS...CONVECTION ON
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...OR TRAINING WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN BAND.
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TUESDAY EVENING LOOK REALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. DEEP MEAN
WIND IS LIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EASTERLY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BACK
BUILDING STORMS AND TERRAIN ANCHORING ON THE FOOTHILLS. IF
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS COULD PRODUCE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING REPEATED CONVECTION MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OR FURTHER EAST UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES...PROBABLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SAME STORY FOR
CAPE...DEEP SKINNY CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1000
J/KG WITH SOME OF THE EARLY CONVECTION. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOUT
AS GREAT AS WE GET...UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SO WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ESPECIALLY IN A BROADLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN AMOUNTS THAT SUSTAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A LITTLE EARLY FOR A
WATCH YET...THERE MAY BE MORE CLARITY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
LATER TODAY...BUT WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN OUR
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY PLACID AFTER THE MAIN RAIN AREA
EXITS. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO THAT...KEEPING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
INTO THE MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL POPS...BUT THINK THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AS THE NNW FLOW CONTINUES. PROBABLY
SOME MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL PROBABLY SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
AROUND 18Z AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE 21Z TO 02Z AT THE DENVER AIRPORTS. MAIN THREATS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER
18Z. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT A FEW TIMES TODAY DUE TO OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 11Z TO 16Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SHOWN TO BE NEAR 5000 FT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 1 INCH IN
20-30 MINUTES. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH INFLOW AND VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY SO
ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOOKING HIGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO PICK THE FOCUS...THOUGH AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MOST LIKELY. A WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON LARGER
CREEKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO
SOME DRYING AND REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ064>068-072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ064>068-072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ064>068-072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ064>068-072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KBOU 281021
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WOULD ENHANCE CYCLONE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.25
INCHES ON THE PLAINS...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MID LEVEL DRYING COMING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...PW VALUES BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WOULD
YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM STORMS...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. ALSO CONCERNED
THAT CAP MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CERTAIINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AS MOIST AIRMASS
SLOWLY GETS WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACTUALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE LATE AND WEAK Q-G FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...WITH SOME MODELS FOCUSED FROM LARIMER AND BOULDER
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND OTHERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WIDE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN ABOUT AN
18 HOUR PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY TERRAIN FOCUS...CONVECTION ON
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...OR TRAINING WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN BAND.
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TUESDAY EVENING LOOK REALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. DEEP MEAN
WIND IS LIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EASTERLY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BACK
BUILDING STORMS AND TERRAIN ANCHORING ON THE FOOTHILLS. IF
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS COULD PRODUCE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING REPEATED CONVECTION MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OR FURTHER EAST UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES...PROBABLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SAME STORY FOR
CAPE...DEEP SKINNY CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1000
J/KG WITH SOME OF THE EARLY CONVECTION. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOUT
AS GREAT AS WE GET...UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SO WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ESPECIALLY IN A BROADLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN AMOUNTS THAT SUSTAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A LITTLE EARLY FOR A
WATCH YET...THERE MAY BE MORE CLARITY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
LATER TODAY...BUT WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN OUR
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY PLACID AFTER THE MAIN RAIN AREA
EXITS. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO THAT...KEEPING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
INTO THE MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL POPS...BUT THINK THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AS THE NNW FLOW CONTINUES. PROBABLY
SOME MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL PROBABLY SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
DENVER CYCLONE IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND SOME MID/HIGH LVEL
CLOUDINESS WAS KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER SLIGHTLY WARMER. THIS COULD
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS OR STRATUS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...PROBABILITY OF A STRATUS DECK/LIGHT FOG
NEAR 50-60%. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS DECK USUALLY DEVELOPS
12Z-13Z. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS
TIME THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO TSRA IN TAFS 22Z-02Z
BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS 04Z-05Z LIKE LAST EVENING. VISIBILITIY
RESTRICTION DOWN TO 1-2SM AND CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AGL
IN/NEAR STORM CORES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SHOWN TO BE NEAR 5000 FT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 1 INCH IN
20-30 MINUTES. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH INFLOW AND VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY SO
ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOOKING HIGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO PICK THE FOCUS...THOUGH AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MOST LIKELY. A WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON LARGER
CREEKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO
SOME DRYING AND REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281021
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WOULD ENHANCE CYCLONE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.25
INCHES ON THE PLAINS...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MID LEVEL DRYING COMING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...PW VALUES BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WOULD
YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM STORMS...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. ALSO CONCERNED
THAT CAP MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CERTAIINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AS MOIST AIRMASS
SLOWLY GETS WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACTUALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE LATE AND WEAK Q-G FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...WITH SOME MODELS FOCUSED FROM LARIMER AND BOULDER
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND OTHERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WIDE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN ABOUT AN
18 HOUR PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY TERRAIN FOCUS...CONVECTION ON
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...OR TRAINING WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN BAND.
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TUESDAY EVENING LOOK REALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. DEEP MEAN
WIND IS LIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EASTERLY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BACK
BUILDING STORMS AND TERRAIN ANCHORING ON THE FOOTHILLS. IF
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS COULD PRODUCE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING REPEATED CONVECTION MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OR FURTHER EAST UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES...PROBABLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SAME STORY FOR
CAPE...DEEP SKINNY CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1000
J/KG WITH SOME OF THE EARLY CONVECTION. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOUT
AS GREAT AS WE GET...UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SO WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ESPECIALLY IN A BROADLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN AMOUNTS THAT SUSTAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A LITTLE EARLY FOR A
WATCH YET...THERE MAY BE MORE CLARITY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
LATER TODAY...BUT WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN OUR
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY PLACID AFTER THE MAIN RAIN AREA
EXITS. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO THAT...KEEPING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
INTO THE MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL POPS...BUT THINK THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AS THE NNW FLOW CONTINUES. PROBABLY
SOME MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL PROBABLY SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
DENVER CYCLONE IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND SOME MID/HIGH LVEL
CLOUDINESS WAS KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER SLIGHTLY WARMER. THIS COULD
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS OR STRATUS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...PROBABILITY OF A STRATUS DECK/LIGHT FOG
NEAR 50-60%. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS DECK USUALLY DEVELOPS
12Z-13Z. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS
TIME THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO TSRA IN TAFS 22Z-02Z
BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS 04Z-05Z LIKE LAST EVENING. VISIBILITIY
RESTRICTION DOWN TO 1-2SM AND CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AGL
IN/NEAR STORM CORES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SHOWN TO BE NEAR 5000 FT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 1 INCH IN
20-30 MINUTES. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH INFLOW AND VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY SO
ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOOKING HIGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO PICK THE FOCUS...THOUGH AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MOST LIKELY. A WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON LARGER
CREEKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO
SOME DRYING AND REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281021
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WOULD ENHANCE CYCLONE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.25
INCHES ON THE PLAINS...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MID LEVEL DRYING COMING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...PW VALUES BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WOULD
YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM STORMS...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. ALSO CONCERNED
THAT CAP MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CERTAIINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AS MOIST AIRMASS
SLOWLY GETS WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACTUALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE LATE AND WEAK Q-G FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...WITH SOME MODELS FOCUSED FROM LARIMER AND BOULDER
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND OTHERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WIDE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN ABOUT AN
18 HOUR PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY TERRAIN FOCUS...CONVECTION ON
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...OR TRAINING WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN BAND.
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TUESDAY EVENING LOOK REALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. DEEP MEAN
WIND IS LIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EASTERLY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BACK
BUILDING STORMS AND TERRAIN ANCHORING ON THE FOOTHILLS. IF
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS COULD PRODUCE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING REPEATED CONVECTION MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OR FURTHER EAST UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES...PROBABLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SAME STORY FOR
CAPE...DEEP SKINNY CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1000
J/KG WITH SOME OF THE EARLY CONVECTION. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOUT
AS GREAT AS WE GET...UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SO WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ESPECIALLY IN A BROADLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN AMOUNTS THAT SUSTAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A LITTLE EARLY FOR A
WATCH YET...THERE MAY BE MORE CLARITY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
LATER TODAY...BUT WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN OUR
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY PLACID AFTER THE MAIN RAIN AREA
EXITS. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO THAT...KEEPING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
INTO THE MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL POPS...BUT THINK THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AS THE NNW FLOW CONTINUES. PROBABLY
SOME MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL PROBABLY SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
DENVER CYCLONE IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND SOME MID/HIGH LVEL
CLOUDINESS WAS KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER SLIGHTLY WARMER. THIS COULD
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS OR STRATUS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...PROBABILITY OF A STRATUS DECK/LIGHT FOG
NEAR 50-60%. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS DECK USUALLY DEVELOPS
12Z-13Z. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS
TIME THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO TSRA IN TAFS 22Z-02Z
BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS 04Z-05Z LIKE LAST EVENING. VISIBILITIY
RESTRICTION DOWN TO 1-2SM AND CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AGL
IN/NEAR STORM CORES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SHOWN TO BE NEAR 5000 FT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 1 INCH IN
20-30 MINUTES. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH INFLOW AND VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY SO
ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOOKING HIGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO PICK THE FOCUS...THOUGH AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MOST LIKELY. A WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON LARGER
CREEKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO
SOME DRYING AND REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281021
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING
WILL KEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD HOLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WOULD ENHANCE CYCLONE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.25
INCHES ON THE PLAINS...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MID LEVEL DRYING COMING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...PW VALUES BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WOULD
YIELD CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHEAR AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM STORMS...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. ALSO CONCERNED
THAT CAP MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY CERTAIINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AS MOIST AIRMASS
SLOWLY GETS WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACTUALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING WEAK
UPSLOPE LATE AND WEAK Q-G FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLIP FLOPPING
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...WITH SOME MODELS FOCUSED FROM LARIMER AND BOULDER
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND OTHERS FROM OUR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WIDE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN ABOUT AN
18 HOUR PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY TERRAIN FOCUS...CONVECTION ON
STATIONARY BOUNDARIES...OR TRAINING WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN BAND.
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TUESDAY EVENING LOOK REALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. DEEP MEAN
WIND IS LIGHT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EASTERLY...WITH STRONGER LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BACK
BUILDING STORMS AND TERRAIN ANCHORING ON THE FOOTHILLS. IF
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS COULD PRODUCE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PRODUCING REPEATED CONVECTION MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OR FURTHER EAST UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES...PROBABLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SAME STORY FOR
CAPE...DEEP SKINNY CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 1000
J/KG WITH SOME OF THE EARLY CONVECTION. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOUT
AS GREAT AS WE GET...UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SO WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ESPECIALLY IN A BROADLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN AMOUNTS THAT SUSTAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A LITTLE EARLY FOR A
WATCH YET...THERE MAY BE MORE CLARITY ON THE POSITION AND TIMING
LATER TODAY...BUT WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT IN OUR
PRODUCTS THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY PLACID AFTER THE MAIN RAIN AREA
EXITS. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO THAT...KEEPING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
INTO THE MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL POPS...BUT THINK THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AS THE NNW FLOW CONTINUES. PROBABLY
SOME MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL PROBABLY SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
DENVER CYCLONE IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND SOME MID/HIGH LVEL
CLOUDINESS WAS KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER SLIGHTLY WARMER. THIS COULD
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS OR STRATUS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...PROBABILITY OF A STRATUS DECK/LIGHT FOG
NEAR 50-60%. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS DECK USUALLY DEVELOPS
12Z-13Z. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS
TIME THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO TSRA IN TAFS 22Z-02Z
BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS 04Z-05Z LIKE LAST EVENING. VISIBILITIY
RESTRICTION DOWN TO 1-2SM AND CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AGL
IN/NEAR STORM CORES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SHOWN TO BE NEAR 5000 FT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 1 INCH IN
20-30 MINUTES. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH INFLOW AND VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY SO
ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD
SEE FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOOKING HIGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO PICK THE FOCUS...THOUGH AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MOST LIKELY. A WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP.
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON LARGER
CREEKS AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO
SOME DRYING AND REDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY KEEO...KPSO...KPGA...KPUC...AND BACK TO KEEO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z/TUES. A MAJORITY OF
TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY KEEO...KPSO...KPGA...KPUC...AND BACK TO KEEO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z/TUES. A MAJORITY OF
TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY KEEO...KPSO...KPGA...KPUC...AND BACK TO KEEO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z/TUES. A MAJORITY OF
TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY KEEO...KPSO...KPGA...KPUC...AND BACK TO KEEO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z/TUES. A MAJORITY OF
TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281008 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD CO ZONE 6 AND UT ZONE 27 TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY KEEO...KPSO...KPGA...KPUC...AND BACK TO KEEO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z/TUES. A MAJORITY OF
TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ006-009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ022-027-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 281008 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD CO ZONE 6 AND UT ZONE 27 TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY KEEO...KPSO...KPGA...KPUC...AND BACK TO KEEO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z/TUES. A MAJORITY OF
TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ006-009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ022-027-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KPUB 280538
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RADAR DATA INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH LATEST SCANS INDICATING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING...WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH NATURELY
EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN FALL AND VFR CIGS AT BOTH COS AND PUB.
RAIN TO END ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR WEATHER
EXPECTED AS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 280538
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RADAR DATA INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH LATEST SCANS INDICATING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING...WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH NATURELY
EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN FALL AND VFR CIGS AT BOTH COS AND PUB.
RAIN TO END ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR WEATHER
EXPECTED AS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 280538
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RADAR DATA INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH LATEST SCANS INDICATING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING...WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH NATURELY
EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN FALL AND VFR CIGS AT BOTH COS AND PUB.
RAIN TO END ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR WEATHER
EXPECTED AS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 280538
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RADAR DATA INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH LATEST SCANS INDICATING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING...WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH NATURELY
EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN FALL AND VFR CIGS AT BOTH COS AND PUB.
RAIN TO END ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR WEATHER
EXPECTED AS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KGJT 280445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOME SHOWERS PERSISTING THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TAF SITES
REPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH STRONG STORMS AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON.
ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON STATION WITH MVFR...TO
POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS DROPS UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL TAKE A DOWNTURN AFTER 03Z THOUGH SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOME SHOWERS PERSISTING THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TAF SITES
REPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH STRONG STORMS AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON.
ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON STATION WITH MVFR...TO
POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS DROPS UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL TAKE A DOWNTURN AFTER 03Z THOUGH SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOME SHOWERS PERSISTING THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TAF SITES
REPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH STRONG STORMS AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON.
ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON STATION WITH MVFR...TO
POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS DROPS UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL TAKE A DOWNTURN AFTER 03Z THOUGH SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOME SHOWERS PERSISTING THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TAF SITES
REPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH STRONG STORMS AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON.
ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON STATION WITH MVFR...TO
POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS DROPS UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL TAKE A DOWNTURN AFTER 03Z THOUGH SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KBOU 280339
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
939 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISOLATED T-STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE UP THIS EVENING AT THE
INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ADAMS...SOUTHERN WELD AND SOUTHWEST MORGAN COUNTIES. A SECOND
LARGER AREA OF STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN ELBERT AND EASTERN
ARAPAHOE...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES
CONTINUES ITS VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION. KFTG VAD WIND
PROFILER CURRENTLY INDICATES 10-15KT SELY SFC-12K FT AGL
WINDS...AND ONLY 5-20KT NWLY 15K-28K FT AGL WINDS OVER DENVER.
REASON FOR THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS THIS EVENING. INTEGRATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS EVENING WITH
IMPRESSIVE PW VALUES OF 1.38 INCH AT BOULDER AND 1.53 INCH AT
PLATTEVILLE. HOWEVER IN THE PAST HOUR HAVE NOTICED A DECLINE IN
STORM INTENSITIES AND COVERAGE. JUST UPDATED POP AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THESE STORMS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT...EVEN WITH ALL OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AROUND. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF THIS
MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG
TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS... FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH MID
EVENING. A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE AN INCH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STORMS WITH ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES. SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG. THOUGH CAN`T TOTALLY RULE ONE OUT EITHER. THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WILL BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR STORMS.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE MOIST AIRMASS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S VALUES WITH A LITTLE OVER
AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE MORNING MAY
START OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...THOUGH MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH THEM AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. USING DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S YIELD CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG. THIS AND LIMITED SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WITH ONE INCH
POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE FOR THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE MOTION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT
IS MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO DUE EASTERLY. A COOLER AIR MASS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS UBIQUITOUS THROUGH THE PERIODS
...ESPECIALLY FORM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS ARE IN THE
0.90 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THEY DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS
PRETTY MOIST. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOW SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING. THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS PROGGED ON THE ALL THE MODELS FOR THE WESTERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS LITTLE. THERE IS FAIR
CAPE OVER MOST AREAS MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHER VALUES AND
BETTER COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAPE MINIMAL IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...
WILL KEEP "CHANCE"S GOING MONDAY EVENING. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 50-70%S FOR THE CWA.
WILL DECREASE THEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COOLER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
ANOTHER 2-5 C COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND THE
AXIS BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. ON
FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST WEST OF
THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT
TOTALLY. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM IMMEDIATELY NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNING OF WEAKENING AT THIS TIME. AT THE PRESENT RATE THIS CELL
SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THE AIRPORT IN THE NEXT
45-60 MINUTES. OTHERWISE THE THREAT OF T-STORMS AT DENVER AREA
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH COOLING. CURRENT TERMINAL
FORECASTS INDICATE LOW CIGS AFTER 10Z TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
VERY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANY
FOG IN THE METRO AREA...JUST A STRATUS DECK ROUGHLY FROM 12Z-15Z
OR SO TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT
INDICATE A CLOUD LAYER AS LOW OR AS THICK AS THE ONE THIS MORNING.
SO MAY SEE AN EARLIER BREAKOUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EVENING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAINFALL RATES OF LESS THAN 0.25 INCH PER HOUR ARE ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS IN THE THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 280339
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
939 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISOLATED T-STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE UP THIS EVENING AT THE
INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ADAMS...SOUTHERN WELD AND SOUTHWEST MORGAN COUNTIES. A SECOND
LARGER AREA OF STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN ELBERT AND EASTERN
ARAPAHOE...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES
CONTINUES ITS VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION. KFTG VAD WIND
PROFILER CURRENTLY INDICATES 10-15KT SELY SFC-12K FT AGL
WINDS...AND ONLY 5-20KT NWLY 15K-28K FT AGL WINDS OVER DENVER.
REASON FOR THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS THIS EVENING. INTEGRATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS EVENING WITH
IMPRESSIVE PW VALUES OF 1.38 INCH AT BOULDER AND 1.53 INCH AT
PLATTEVILLE. HOWEVER IN THE PAST HOUR HAVE NOTICED A DECLINE IN
STORM INTENSITIES AND COVERAGE. JUST UPDATED POP AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THESE STORMS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT...EVEN WITH ALL OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AROUND. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF THIS
MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG
TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS... FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH MID
EVENING. A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE AN INCH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STORMS WITH ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES. SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG. THOUGH CAN`T TOTALLY RULE ONE OUT EITHER. THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WILL BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR STORMS.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE MOIST AIRMASS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S VALUES WITH A LITTLE OVER
AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE MORNING MAY
START OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...THOUGH MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH THEM AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. USING DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S YIELD CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG. THIS AND LIMITED SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WITH ONE INCH
POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE FOR THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE MOTION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT
IS MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO DUE EASTERLY. A COOLER AIR MASS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS UBIQUITOUS THROUGH THE PERIODS
...ESPECIALLY FORM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS ARE IN THE
0.90 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THEY DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS
PRETTY MOIST. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOW SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING. THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS PROGGED ON THE ALL THE MODELS FOR THE WESTERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS LITTLE. THERE IS FAIR
CAPE OVER MOST AREAS MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHER VALUES AND
BETTER COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAPE MINIMAL IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...
WILL KEEP "CHANCE"S GOING MONDAY EVENING. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 50-70%S FOR THE CWA.
WILL DECREASE THEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COOLER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
ANOTHER 2-5 C COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND THE
AXIS BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. ON
FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST WEST OF
THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT
TOTALLY. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM IMMEDIATELY NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNING OF WEAKENING AT THIS TIME. AT THE PRESENT RATE THIS CELL
SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THE AIRPORT IN THE NEXT
45-60 MINUTES. OTHERWISE THE THREAT OF T-STORMS AT DENVER AREA
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH COOLING. CURRENT TERMINAL
FORECASTS INDICATE LOW CIGS AFTER 10Z TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
VERY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANY
FOG IN THE METRO AREA...JUST A STRATUS DECK ROUGHLY FROM 12Z-15Z
OR SO TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT
INDICATE A CLOUD LAYER AS LOW OR AS THICK AS THE ONE THIS MORNING.
SO MAY SEE AN EARLIER BREAKOUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EVENING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAINFALL RATES OF LESS THAN 0.25 INCH PER HOUR ARE ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS IN THE THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 280322
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
DROPPING VIS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MOST
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z WITH AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KDRO AND KTEX MAY SEE SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEEPS VFR GOING IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON
STATION WITH MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS
DROPS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO TEMPO GROUPS YET WITH CONVECTION
SO FAR OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 280322
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
DROPPING VIS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MOST
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z WITH AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KDRO AND KTEX MAY SEE SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEEPS VFR GOING IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON
STATION WITH MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS
DROPS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO TEMPO GROUPS YET WITH CONVECTION
SO FAR OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 280322
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
DROPPING VIS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MOST
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z WITH AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KDRO AND KTEX MAY SEE SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEEPS VFR GOING IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON
STATION WITH MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS
DROPS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO TEMPO GROUPS YET WITH CONVECTION
SO FAR OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 280322
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
DROPPING VIS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MOST
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z WITH AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KDRO AND KTEX MAY SEE SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEEPS VFR GOING IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON
STATION WITH MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS
DROPS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO TEMPO GROUPS YET WITH CONVECTION
SO FAR OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KPUB 280129
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA...AS HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL CONTINUE AT OR IN THE VCNTY OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. HEAVY RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>089-093-
094-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KGJT 272329
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
529 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
DROPPING VIS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MOST
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z WITH AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KDRO AND KTEX MAY SEE SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEEPS VFR GOING IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON
STATION WITH MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS
DROPS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO TEMPO GROUPS YET WITH CONVECTION
SO FAR OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 272329
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
529 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
DROPPING VIS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MOST
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z WITH AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KDRO AND KTEX MAY SEE SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEEPS VFR GOING IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON
STATION WITH MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS
DROPS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO TEMPO GROUPS YET WITH CONVECTION
SO FAR OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272153
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
353 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS MAY DEVELOP. OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272153
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
353 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS MAY DEVELOP. OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 272112
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
312 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS... FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH MID
EVENING. A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE AN INCH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STORMS WITH ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES. SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG. THOUGH CAN`T TOTALLY RULE ONE OUT EITHER. THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WILL BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR STORMS.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE MOIST AIRMASS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S VALUES WITH A LITTLE OVER
AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE MORNING MAY
START OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...THOUGH MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH THEM AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. USING DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S YIELD CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG. THIS AND LIMITED SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WITH ONE INCH
POSSIBLE IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE FOR THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE MOTION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT
IS MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO DUE EASTERLY. A COOLER AIR MASS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS UBIQUITOUS THROUGH THE PERIODS
...ESPECIALLY FORM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS ARE IN THE
0.90 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THEY DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS
PRETTY MOIST. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOW SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING. THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS PROGED ON THE ALL THE MODELS FOR THE WESTERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS LITTLE. THERE IS FAIR
CAPE OVER MOST AREAS MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHER VALUES AND
BETTER COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAPE MINIMAL IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...
WILL KEEP "CHANCE"S GOING MONDAY EVENING. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH 50-70%S FOR THE CWA.
WILL DECREASE THEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COOLER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
ANOTHER 2-5 C COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND THE
AXIS BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. ON
FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST WEST OF
THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT
TOTALLY. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z
TODAY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40
KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE WESTERN PARTS OF DENVER. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 6000
FEET TONIGHT...THROUGH 09Z TO 12Z. THEN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REFORM WITH CEILINGS OF 500 TO 2000 FEET THROUGH 16Z MONDAY.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT A TIME OR TWO TODAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.1 INCH. WITH 60 DEGREE DEW
POINTS...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF
ABOUT 5000 FT...HEAVY RAIN FROM SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STEERING STORMS CLOSE TO 15 MPH. ONE
INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SLOWER MOVING
STORM OR TRAINING COULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. STORM
MOVEMENT AND THE LACK OF REGENERATION WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD PRONE
AREAS SUCH BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS COULD SEE FLOODING ISSUES
FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 272023
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
223 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL CONTINUE AT OR IN THE VCNTY OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. HEAVY RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 272023
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
223 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONSOON MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE.  DEW
POINTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
MID 50S AT 1 PM OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND WALSENBURG AND
TRINIDAD.

00Z WRF FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS MOVING OUT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR...EASTWARD TO BENT COUNTY AND
THEN ALONG THE SRN PLAINS (LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR...THE RAP...NAM AND ARW HAVE
BACKED OFF OF PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HRRR HITS ERN FREMONT AND THE WRN HALF OF
PUEBLO COUNTY HARD WITH PCPN THIS EVENING.  THE GFS ALSO FAVORS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH AROUND 0.50. THE 18Z RAP IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD MORE PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW TENTHS.  OVERALL...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
NOT OCCUR EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES.  BUT GIVEN THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THAT WATCH.  THE RAP KEEPS SOME LIGHT LINGERING PCPN OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS THRU THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND ARW DO NOT...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH SURROUNDING
WFO/S.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE NAM AND ARW SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OVR
THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SOME SCT PCPN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  WL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

WELL-ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE MONSOON KICKS INTO HIGH
GEAR AND STAYS THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MON NIGHT...THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NR THE CO-KS
BORDER WHERE ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AND FEED ON A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW AVERAGE...LIKELY ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUE-WED...LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUR AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
MONSOONAL HIGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
REGARDLESS IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
PREC H2O CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SE CO WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH RECENT RAINFALL DETERMINING THE HIGHER THREAT
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE USUAL TARGETS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND
URBAN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME SVR STORMS
FOR THE ERN BORDER COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE
EVE...AS THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN BULK SHEARS IN THE 40 KT
RANGE...WHICH ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME SVR
WX DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE PRECIP PATTERN SETS UP.

THU ONWARD...THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND. STORMS
SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY NUMEROUS OVER THE MT AREAS ON A DIURNAL
BASIS. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT TO THE
E...BUT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER FOR THE AREA...GENERALLY IN THE 70S-80S.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL CONTINUE AT OR IN THE VCNTY OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. HEAVY RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE SOME STRATUS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DELAYED
PCPN A LITTLE LONGER IN MAINLY ERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR AND NR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THEY WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KALS
BY MIDAFTERNOON...AND MAY MAKE IT TO KPUB BY EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES. PCPN CHANCES AT THE
TERMINAL SITES WL LIKELY END BY 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 271732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DELAYED
PCPN A LITTLE LONGER IN MAINLY ERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR AND NR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THEY WL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KALS
BY MIDAFTERNOON...AND MAY MAKE IT TO KPUB BY EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES. PCPN CHANCES AT THE
TERMINAL SITES WL LIKELY END BY 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE SW CO/NW NM BORDER REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT FAR FROM WHERE IT WAS LOCATED YESTERDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF DEFORMATION
BETWEEN THE HIGH CIRCULATION AND AN MCV OVER SOUTHEAST CO APPEARED
RESPONSIBLE FOR A WEAKENING SINGLE CELL STORM 30NM SOUTHWEST OF
KPSO AROUND 0830Z.

NAM APPEARED TO BEST HANDLE THESE FEATURES AND SUGGESTS THAT SOME
LIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS PAST DAYBREAK. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO LOSE SOME
ENERGY IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING FORCES...HOWEVER SHOULD STILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CO. ELSEWHERE...RESIDUAL
MONSOON MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 00Z/SUN KGJT SOUNDING PW VALUE DOWN CLOSE TO 0.1 INCHES
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S SOUNDING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS
WILL HAVE A PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON TODAY/S MOIST
CONVECTION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OR MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS.

DECREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
SATURDAY SO CONTINUED FORECAST FAVORING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AN INCH WITH MINIMAL VALUES INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH 0.8 INCHES. A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NEW MEXICO...EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH IS A PERFECT POSITION.
PW VALUES INCREASE WITH AN INCH TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
WHICH IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO SUNDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFTING
INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STEERING FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING.  THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS ALSO PAIRED
WITH A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ON AVERAGE
1.25 ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LAKE POWELL
IN SE UTAH OF 1.5 INCHES. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS VERY CLEARLY EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT 5H-3H VORTICITY. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR AS OF SUNDAY MORNING...A WAVE OVER EL PASO TEXAS
STRETCHING EAST TOWARDS THE OLD MEXICO-ARIZONA BORDER...AND
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 5H-3H
VORTICITY INDICATES THESE FEATURES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND MERGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH NEVADA...UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A VERY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE.  DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS WELL WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONGER STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  STEERING FLOW
AND SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH STORM MOTION IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.  BELIEVE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTION ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT IN ARIZONA AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH STRONGER STORMS
OCCURRING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS STORM MOTION WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. MUD
DEBRIS FLOWS AND ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
CYCLING OF MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MORE COMMONPLACE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS MAY DEVELOP. OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA/NL
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 271646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE SW CO/NW NM BORDER REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT FAR FROM WHERE IT WAS LOCATED YESTERDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF DEFORMATION
BETWEEN THE HIGH CIRCULATION AND AN MCV OVER SOUTHEAST CO APPEARED
RESPONSIBLE FOR A WEAKENING SINGLE CELL STORM 30NM SOUTHWEST OF
KPSO AROUND 0830Z.

NAM APPEARED TO BEST HANDLE THESE FEATURES AND SUGGESTS THAT SOME
LIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS PAST DAYBREAK. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO LOSE SOME
ENERGY IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING FORCES...HOWEVER SHOULD STILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CO. ELSEWHERE...RESIDUAL
MONSOON MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 00Z/SUN KGJT SOUNDING PW VALUE DOWN CLOSE TO 0.1 INCHES
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S SOUNDING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS
WILL HAVE A PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON TODAY/S MOIST
CONVECTION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OR MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS.

DECREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
SATURDAY SO CONTINUED FORECAST FAVORING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AN INCH WITH MINIMAL VALUES INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH 0.8 INCHES. A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NEW MEXICO...EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH IS A PERFECT POSITION.
PW VALUES INCREASE WITH AN INCH TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
WHICH IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO SUNDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFTING
INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STEERING FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING.  THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS ALSO PAIRED
WITH A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ON AVERAGE
1.25 ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LAKE POWELL
IN SE UTAH OF 1.5 INCHES. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS VERY CLEARLY EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT 5H-3H VORTICITY. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR AS OF SUNDAY MORNING...A WAVE OVER EL PASO TEXAS
STRETCHING EAST TOWARDS THE OLD MEXICO-ARIZONA BORDER...AND
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 5H-3H
VORTICITY INDICATES THESE FEATURES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND MERGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH NEVADA...UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A VERY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE.  DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS WELL WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONGER STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  STEERING FLOW
AND SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH STORM MOTION IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.  BELIEVE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTION ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT IN ARIZONA AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH STRONGER STORMS
OCCURRING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS STORM MOTION WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. MUD
DEBRIS FLOWS AND ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
CYCLING OF MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MORE COMMONPLACE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS MAY DEVELOP. OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA/NL
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 271646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE SW CO/NW NM BORDER REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT FAR FROM WHERE IT WAS LOCATED YESTERDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF DEFORMATION
BETWEEN THE HIGH CIRCULATION AND AN MCV OVER SOUTHEAST CO APPEARED
RESPONSIBLE FOR A WEAKENING SINGLE CELL STORM 30NM SOUTHWEST OF
KPSO AROUND 0830Z.

NAM APPEARED TO BEST HANDLE THESE FEATURES AND SUGGESTS THAT SOME
LIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS PAST DAYBREAK. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO LOSE SOME
ENERGY IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING FORCES...HOWEVER SHOULD STILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CO. ELSEWHERE...RESIDUAL
MONSOON MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 00Z/SUN KGJT SOUNDING PW VALUE DOWN CLOSE TO 0.1 INCHES
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S SOUNDING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS
WILL HAVE A PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON TODAY/S MOIST
CONVECTION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OR MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS.

DECREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
SATURDAY SO CONTINUED FORECAST FAVORING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AN INCH WITH MINIMAL VALUES INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH 0.8 INCHES. A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NEW MEXICO...EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH IS A PERFECT POSITION.
PW VALUES INCREASE WITH AN INCH TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
WHICH IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO SUNDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFTING
INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STEERING FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING.  THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS ALSO PAIRED
WITH A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ON AVERAGE
1.25 ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LAKE POWELL
IN SE UTAH OF 1.5 INCHES. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS VERY CLEARLY EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT 5H-3H VORTICITY. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR AS OF SUNDAY MORNING...A WAVE OVER EL PASO TEXAS
STRETCHING EAST TOWARDS THE OLD MEXICO-ARIZONA BORDER...AND
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 5H-3H
VORTICITY INDICATES THESE FEATURES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND MERGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH NEVADA...UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A VERY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE.  DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS WELL WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONGER STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  STEERING FLOW
AND SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH STORM MOTION IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.  BELIEVE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTION ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT IN ARIZONA AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH STRONGER STORMS
OCCURRING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS STORM MOTION WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. MUD
DEBRIS FLOWS AND ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
CYCLING OF MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MORE COMMONPLACE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS MAY DEVELOP. OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA/NL
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 271646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE SW CO/NW NM BORDER REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT FAR FROM WHERE IT WAS LOCATED YESTERDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF DEFORMATION
BETWEEN THE HIGH CIRCULATION AND AN MCV OVER SOUTHEAST CO APPEARED
RESPONSIBLE FOR A WEAKENING SINGLE CELL STORM 30NM SOUTHWEST OF
KPSO AROUND 0830Z.

NAM APPEARED TO BEST HANDLE THESE FEATURES AND SUGGESTS THAT SOME
LIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS PAST DAYBREAK. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO LOSE SOME
ENERGY IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING FORCES...HOWEVER SHOULD STILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CO. ELSEWHERE...RESIDUAL
MONSOON MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 00Z/SUN KGJT SOUNDING PW VALUE DOWN CLOSE TO 0.1 INCHES
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S SOUNDING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS
WILL HAVE A PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON TODAY/S MOIST
CONVECTION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OR MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS.

DECREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
SATURDAY SO CONTINUED FORECAST FAVORING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AN INCH WITH MINIMAL VALUES INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH 0.8 INCHES. A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NEW MEXICO...EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH IS A PERFECT POSITION.
PW VALUES INCREASE WITH AN INCH TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
WHICH IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO SUNDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFTING
INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STEERING FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING.  THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS ALSO PAIRED
WITH A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ON AVERAGE
1.25 ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LAKE POWELL
IN SE UTAH OF 1.5 INCHES. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS VERY CLEARLY EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT 5H-3H VORTICITY. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR AS OF SUNDAY MORNING...A WAVE OVER EL PASO TEXAS
STRETCHING EAST TOWARDS THE OLD MEXICO-ARIZONA BORDER...AND
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 5H-3H
VORTICITY INDICATES THESE FEATURES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND MERGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH NEVADA...UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A VERY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE.  DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS WELL WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONGER STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  STEERING FLOW
AND SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH STORM MOTION IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.  BELIEVE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTION ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT IN ARIZONA AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH STRONGER STORMS
OCCURRING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS STORM MOTION WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. MUD
DEBRIS FLOWS AND ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
CYCLING OF MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MORE COMMONPLACE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS MAY DEVELOP. OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA/NL
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 271554
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DELAYED
PCPN A LITTLE LONGER IN MAINLY ERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME PATCHY
VFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND -SHRA THIS MORNING ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THESE COULD AFFECT THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
AT BOTH TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KALS
WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THOSE WHICH FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
03Z FOR THE TERMINALS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
MON. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271554
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DELAYED
PCPN A LITTLE LONGER IN MAINLY ERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME PATCHY
VFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND -SHRA THIS MORNING ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THESE COULD AFFECT THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
AT BOTH TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KALS
WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THOSE WHICH FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
03Z FOR THE TERMINALS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
MON. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271554
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DELAYED
PCPN A LITTLE LONGER IN MAINLY ERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME PATCHY
VFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND -SHRA THIS MORNING ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THESE COULD AFFECT THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
AT BOTH TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KALS
WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THOSE WHICH FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
03Z FOR THE TERMINALS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
MON. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271554
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DELAYED
PCPN A LITTLE LONGER IN MAINLY ERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

TODAY WILL BE DAY ONE OF A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT 60 DEW POINTS WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF UP TO 140% OF NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OCCURRED OVER SPOTTY AREAS OF MINERAL COUNTY...AND ACROSS
A WIDESPREAD SWATH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE
.50 TO UP TO 2 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN ACCORDING TO KPUX DUAL POL
PRECIP ESTIMATES.  SO WE ARE ALREADY STARTING OUT WITH SOME WET
GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA...AND PRECIP WATERS OF UP TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THIS WILL BE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING INITIATES
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PERSIST INTO
 THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
TO CONTINUALLY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HPC HAS QPF TOTALS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD MAXING OUT AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST CENTERED ON THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  BASED
ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS UNTIL 11 AM.  ALSO EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO BACA COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  IF 06Z NAM12 IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 12Z...BUT THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OUT
WEST...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT THERE AS WELL.  HOWEVER SINCE THE THREAT DOESN`T LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR AND THE CHALK CLIFFS IN
CHAFFEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AS WELL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ACTIVE MONSOON STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN...AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOIST REGIME...EXPECT TO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARNEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY AND
MOVE INTO ADJACENT AREAS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ALL THE AREA BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR CERTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A
RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS FEATURE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 DEVELOPS AN MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS HAS IT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EUROPEAN
FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. BOTTOM LINE IS TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO PAY
PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES A MOIST REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME PATCHY
VFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND -SHRA THIS MORNING ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THESE COULD AFFECT THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE.  WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
AT BOTH TAF SITES.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KALS
WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THOSE WHICH FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
03Z FOR THE TERMINALS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
MON. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ076>078-
081>086-089-093-097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
087-088-094-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. ALREADY SEEING
THE MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOW CLOUDS
FORMING. BY AFTERNOON... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB ABOVE AN
INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL LEAD TO QUICK DESTABILIZATION...WITH STORMS
STARTING TO FORM AROUND 18Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS.
CAN`T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS...BUT WITH
CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND A MOIST AIRMASS THE CHANCES WILL BE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE FOR TODAY. WHILE CURRENT INTEGRATED
PW VALUES FROM GPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90 INCH...LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT BUT WEAK
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS TIME FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS MARGINAL
AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE LAST 12-24 HOURS IS FOR A WEAKER CAP
IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD BRING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM DENVER METRO SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND EROSION OF CAP WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE. WITH LOWER LCLS AND WEAK DENVER CONVERGENCE VORTICITY
ZONE MAY EVEN SEE A BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA AS WELL IF CAPES
REACH 1500 J/KG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVER/NEAR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WILL BE TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR CHEYENNE WYOMING TO AKRON CAPPED AND DRY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD STABILIZE THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND CREATE A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE AREA
OF COLORADO. MODELS HAVE FAIR CONSISTENCY ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
TIMING...BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAIN GENERATED VARY
SOMEWHAT. MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FROM THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR A
BULLSEYE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES.
MODEL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER
THE PLAINS...WITH MAXIMA OF TWO INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THIS PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THAT MANY FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS WILL EXIST AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON AREAS WITH
INCREASED VULNERABILITY. NOT A SURE THING YET THOUGH AS THE FOCUS
MAY NOT REMAIN IN ONE PLACE AS LONG AS IS SHOWN...OR MAY BE
ELSEWHERE AS IN THE LATEST GFS THAT HAS THIS BAND FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY MISSES OUR AREA. I DID RAISE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME WARMING ALOFT. STILL SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO FAVORING AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 3000 FEET WILL SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z...EXPECT CEILINGS TO RANGE FROM 3000
TO 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE 22Z TO 02Z AT
KDEN...A LITTLE SOONER CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION TO
CHANGE A FEW TIMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.1 INCH...WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR JULY. IT WOULD TAKE 1.25 INCH AS SHOWN IN THE
WETTEST GFS SOLUTION TO REACH THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION OR NEAR
THE 95TH PERCENTILE. NOT LIKELY WE WILL SEE THAT...BUT STILL A
CHANCE WE COULD REACH THOSE NUMBERS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH
INCREASING TO ABOUT 5000 FT...SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINERS. AT THE
SAME TIME...NORTHWEST STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING CLOSE TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STORM
INFLOW IS QUITE WEAK. AT THIS POINT...MOST PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
1 INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES...BUT A SLOWER MOVING STORM COULD
PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE
STRONGER STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
PUEBLOS FORECAST AREA FROM TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD...BUT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING THERE IS
SOME THREAT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FAVORING
PARK...JEFFERSON...AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST PW TRENDS BUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD STILL BE ISSUED FOR
THOSE AREAS.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION PROFILE...UPSLOPE WINDS...AND A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE SUSTAINED LIFT COULD CREATE NUMEROUS SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE WINDS WOULD FOCUS THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT
IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR
BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES WITH A WIDESPREAD TWO INCHES OF RAIN.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL IN A FEW HOURS. FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS
PERSISTENT SO THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER AND MORE LOCALIZED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. ALREADY SEEING
THE MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOW CLOUDS
FORMING. BY AFTERNOON... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB ABOVE AN
INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL LEAD TO QUICK DESTABILIZATION...WITH STORMS
STARTING TO FORM AROUND 18Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS.
CAN`T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS...BUT WITH
CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND A MOIST AIRMASS THE CHANCES WILL BE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE FOR TODAY. WHILE CURRENT INTEGRATED
PW VALUES FROM GPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90 INCH...LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT BUT WEAK
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS TIME FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS MARGINAL
AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE LAST 12-24 HOURS IS FOR A WEAKER CAP
IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD BRING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM DENVER METRO SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND EROSION OF CAP WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE. WITH LOWER LCLS AND WEAK DENVER CONVERGENCE VORTICITY
ZONE MAY EVEN SEE A BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA AS WELL IF CAPES
REACH 1500 J/KG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVER/NEAR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WILL BE TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR CHEYENNE WYOMING TO AKRON CAPPED AND DRY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD STABILIZE THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND CREATE A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE AREA
OF COLORADO. MODELS HAVE FAIR CONSISTENCY ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
TIMING...BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAIN GENERATED VARY
SOMEWHAT. MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FROM THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR A
BULLSEYE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES.
MODEL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER
THE PLAINS...WITH MAXIMA OF TWO INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THIS PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THAT MANY FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS WILL EXIST AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON AREAS WITH
INCREASED VULNERABILITY. NOT A SURE THING YET THOUGH AS THE FOCUS
MAY NOT REMAIN IN ONE PLACE AS LONG AS IS SHOWN...OR MAY BE
ELSEWHERE AS IN THE LATEST GFS THAT HAS THIS BAND FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY MISSES OUR AREA. I DID RAISE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME WARMING ALOFT. STILL SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO FAVORING AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 3000 FEET WILL SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z...EXPECT CEILINGS TO RANGE FROM 3000
TO 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE 22Z TO 02Z AT
KDEN...A LITTLE SOONER CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION TO
CHANGE A FEW TIMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.1 INCH...WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR JULY. IT WOULD TAKE 1.25 INCH AS SHOWN IN THE
WETTEST GFS SOLUTION TO REACH THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION OR NEAR
THE 95TH PERCENTILE. NOT LIKELY WE WILL SEE THAT...BUT STILL A
CHANCE WE COULD REACH THOSE NUMBERS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH
INCREASING TO ABOUT 5000 FT...SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINERS. AT THE
SAME TIME...NORTHWEST STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING CLOSE TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STORM
INFLOW IS QUITE WEAK. AT THIS POINT...MOST PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
1 INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES...BUT A SLOWER MOVING STORM COULD
PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE
STRONGER STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
PUEBLOS FORECAST AREA FROM TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD...BUT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING THERE IS
SOME THREAT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FAVORING
PARK...JEFFERSON...AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST PW TRENDS BUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD STILL BE ISSUED FOR
THOSE AREAS.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION PROFILE...UPSLOPE WINDS...AND A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE SUSTAINED LIFT COULD CREATE NUMEROUS SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE WINDS WOULD FOCUS THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT
IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR
BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES WITH A WIDESPREAD TWO INCHES OF RAIN.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL IN A FEW HOURS. FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS
PERSISTENT SO THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER AND MORE LOCALIZED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. ALREADY SEEING
THE MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOW CLOUDS
FORMING. BY AFTERNOON... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB ABOVE AN
INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL LEAD TO QUICK DESTABILIZATION...WITH STORMS
STARTING TO FORM AROUND 18Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS.
CAN`T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS...BUT WITH
CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND A MOIST AIRMASS THE CHANCES WILL BE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE FOR TODAY. WHILE CURRENT INTEGRATED
PW VALUES FROM GPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90 INCH...LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT BUT WEAK
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS TIME FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS MARGINAL
AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE LAST 12-24 HOURS IS FOR A WEAKER CAP
IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD BRING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM DENVER METRO SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND EROSION OF CAP WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE. WITH LOWER LCLS AND WEAK DENVER CONVERGENCE VORTICITY
ZONE MAY EVEN SEE A BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA AS WELL IF CAPES
REACH 1500 J/KG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVER/NEAR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WILL BE TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR CHEYENNE WYOMING TO AKRON CAPPED AND DRY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD STABILIZE THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND CREATE A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE AREA
OF COLORADO. MODELS HAVE FAIR CONSISTENCY ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
TIMING...BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAIN GENERATED VARY
SOMEWHAT. MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FROM THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR A
BULLSEYE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES.
MODEL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER
THE PLAINS...WITH MAXIMA OF TWO INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THIS PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THAT MANY FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS WILL EXIST AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON AREAS WITH
INCREASED VULNERABILITY. NOT A SURE THING YET THOUGH AS THE FOCUS
MAY NOT REMAIN IN ONE PLACE AS LONG AS IS SHOWN...OR MAY BE
ELSEWHERE AS IN THE LATEST GFS THAT HAS THIS BAND FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY MISSES OUR AREA. I DID RAISE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME WARMING ALOFT. STILL SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO FAVORING AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 3000 FEET WILL SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z...EXPECT CEILINGS TO RANGE FROM 3000
TO 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE 22Z TO 02Z AT
KDEN...A LITTLE SOONER CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION TO
CHANGE A FEW TIMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.1 INCH...WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR JULY. IT WOULD TAKE 1.25 INCH AS SHOWN IN THE
WETTEST GFS SOLUTION TO REACH THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION OR NEAR
THE 95TH PERCENTILE. NOT LIKELY WE WILL SEE THAT...BUT STILL A
CHANCE WE COULD REACH THOSE NUMBERS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH
INCREASING TO ABOUT 5000 FT...SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINERS. AT THE
SAME TIME...NORTHWEST STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING CLOSE TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STORM
INFLOW IS QUITE WEAK. AT THIS POINT...MOST PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
1 INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES...BUT A SLOWER MOVING STORM COULD
PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE
STRONGER STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
PUEBLOS FORECAST AREA FROM TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD...BUT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING THERE IS
SOME THREAT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FAVORING
PARK...JEFFERSON...AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST PW TRENDS BUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD STILL BE ISSUED FOR
THOSE AREAS.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION PROFILE...UPSLOPE WINDS...AND A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE SUSTAINED LIFT COULD CREATE NUMEROUS SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE WINDS WOULD FOCUS THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT
IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR
BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES WITH A WIDESPREAD TWO INCHES OF RAIN.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL IN A FEW HOURS. FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS
PERSISTENT SO THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER AND MORE LOCALIZED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. ALREADY SEEING
THE MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOW CLOUDS
FORMING. BY AFTERNOON... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB ABOVE AN
INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL LEAD TO QUICK DESTABILIZATION...WITH STORMS
STARTING TO FORM AROUND 18Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS.
CAN`T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS...BUT WITH
CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND A MOIST AIRMASS THE CHANCES WILL BE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE FOR TODAY. WHILE CURRENT INTEGRATED
PW VALUES FROM GPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90 INCH...LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT BUT WEAK
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS TIME FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS MARGINAL
AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE LAST 12-24 HOURS IS FOR A WEAKER CAP
IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD BRING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY FROM DENVER METRO SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND EROSION OF CAP WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE. WITH LOWER LCLS AND WEAK DENVER CONVERGENCE VORTICITY
ZONE MAY EVEN SEE A BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA AS WELL IF CAPES
REACH 1500 J/KG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVER/NEAR THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA.

MEANWHILE...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WILL BE TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR CHEYENNE WYOMING TO AKRON CAPPED AND DRY.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD STABILIZE THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND CREATE A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE AREA
OF COLORADO. MODELS HAVE FAIR CONSISTENCY ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
TIMING...BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAIN GENERATED VARY
SOMEWHAT. MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FROM THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR A
BULLSEYE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES.
MODEL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER
THE PLAINS...WITH MAXIMA OF TWO INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THIS PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THAT MANY FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS WILL EXIST AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON AREAS WITH
INCREASED VULNERABILITY. NOT A SURE THING YET THOUGH AS THE FOCUS
MAY NOT REMAIN IN ONE PLACE AS LONG AS IS SHOWN...OR MAY BE
ELSEWHERE AS IN THE LATEST GFS THAT HAS THIS BAND FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY MISSES OUR AREA. I DID RAISE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME WARMING ALOFT. STILL SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO FAVORING AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 3000 FEET WILL SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z...EXPECT CEILINGS TO RANGE FROM 3000
TO 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE 22Z TO 02Z AT
KDEN...A LITTLE SOONER CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION TO
CHANGE A FEW TIMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.1 INCH...WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR JULY. IT WOULD TAKE 1.25 INCH AS SHOWN IN THE
WETTEST GFS SOLUTION TO REACH THE 2ND STANDARD DEVIATION OR NEAR
THE 95TH PERCENTILE. NOT LIKELY WE WILL SEE THAT...BUT STILL A
CHANCE WE COULD REACH THOSE NUMBERS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH
INCREASING TO ABOUT 5000 FT...SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINERS. AT THE
SAME TIME...NORTHWEST STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING CLOSE TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STORM
INFLOW IS QUITE WEAK. AT THIS POINT...MOST PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
1 INCH OF RAIN IN 20-30 MINUTES...BUT A SLOWER MOVING STORM COULD
PRODUCE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE
STRONGER STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
PUEBLOS FORECAST AREA FROM TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD...BUT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING THERE IS
SOME THREAT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FAVORING
PARK...JEFFERSON...AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST PW TRENDS BUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD STILL BE ISSUED FOR
THOSE AREAS.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION PROFILE...UPSLOPE WINDS...AND A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE SUSTAINED LIFT COULD CREATE NUMEROUS SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE WINDS WOULD FOCUS THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT
IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR
BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES WITH A WIDESPREAD TWO INCHES OF RAIN.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL IN A FEW HOURS. FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS
PERSISTENT SO THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER AND MORE LOCALIZED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD




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