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000
FXUS65 KPUB 012106
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ATTM.

ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAINS....THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OF BACKSIDE ENERGY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
HELP DIG THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE TROUGH THEN LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 06Z AND
TO THE COLORADO AND KANSAS LINES AROUND 12Z.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO
ENOUGH UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE AND DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS I-25
CORRIDOR...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10K FT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7K FT OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AOA 9K FT AND A DUSTING TO UP TO AN 1 POSSIBLE
AOA 7K FT...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED WIND AND
BRIEF NATURE...WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FREEZE OR FROST HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TEENS AT THE PEAKS.

THERE COULD BY SOME TAIL END SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A RATHER COOL AND DRY CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...PLEASANT BUT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

IF YOU LIKE UNEXCITING WEATHER...YOU WILL LOVE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL PERSIST...THANKS TO
A BLOCKING HIGH THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST. ORDINARILY A
FORECAST OF ZERO POPS FOR A 168 HOUR FORECAST IS PRETTY DARING...BUT
IT LOOKS PRETTY SOLID IN THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE EXPECTED BLOCK.
WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES IN NW
FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT AFTER THAT...EVEN CLOUDS WILL
BE HARD TO COME BY. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY FRI MORNING. MAY REQUIRE A FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE FORECAST TEMPS
ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN EXPECT WARMING
UNDER THE RIDGE. NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP
US FROM GETTING TOO WARM NEXT WEEK...SO WE SHOULD SEE PLEASANT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND 50S-6S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NEXT CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP PROBABLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. UNTIL THEN...ENJOY THE UNEXCITING WEATHER! -ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FOR ALS AND
THOUGH 06Z FOR COS AND PUB. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30KTS TO COS AND PUB AFT 00Z WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 012106
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ATTM.

ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAINS....THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OF BACKSIDE ENERGY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
HELP DIG THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE TROUGH THEN LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 06Z AND
TO THE COLORADO AND KANSAS LINES AROUND 12Z.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO
ENOUGH UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE AND DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS I-25
CORRIDOR...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10K FT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7K FT OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AOA 9K FT AND A DUSTING TO UP TO AN 1 POSSIBLE
AOA 7K FT...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED WIND AND
BRIEF NATURE...WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FREEZE OR FROST HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TEENS AT THE PEAKS.

THERE COULD BY SOME TAIL END SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A RATHER COOL AND DRY CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...PLEASANT BUT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

IF YOU LIKE UNEXCITING WEATHER...YOU WILL LOVE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL PERSIST...THANKS TO
A BLOCKING HIGH THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST. ORDINARILY A
FORECAST OF ZERO POPS FOR A 168 HOUR FORECAST IS PRETTY DARING...BUT
IT LOOKS PRETTY SOLID IN THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE EXPECTED BLOCK.
WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES IN NW
FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT AFTER THAT...EVEN CLOUDS WILL
BE HARD TO COME BY. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY FRI MORNING. MAY REQUIRE A FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE FORECAST TEMPS
ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN EXPECT WARMING
UNDER THE RIDGE. NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP
US FROM GETTING TOO WARM NEXT WEEK...SO WE SHOULD SEE PLEASANT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND 50S-6S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NEXT CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP PROBABLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. UNTIL THEN...ENJOY THE UNEXCITING WEATHER! -ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FOR ALS AND
THOUGH 06Z FOR COS AND PUB. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30KTS TO COS AND PUB AFT 00Z WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 012100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE SWITCHING WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO WNW
BRINGING COOLER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DECREASING WET BULB ZEROS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE
BROUGHT SNOW DOWN TO 8000-8500 FT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE
YOU HAVE DECENT QG VV AND UPSLOPE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL END AT MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR FROM A DISORGANIZED FRONT THAT WILL DROP DOWN INTO
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LAPSE RATES OVER DENVER OF 8.6 C/KM BUT DUE TO LACK OF
MUCH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS WITH WIND SPEEDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE PLAINS AND
40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
BY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

INITIALLY...A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A
STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z...BUT BOTH MODELS ALSO LIMIT ANY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ONLY A FEW HOURS OF
RISING VERTICAL MOTIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL MENTION ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING...IN CASE A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS IN WYOMING. THE COOL AIR MOVING INTO THE
STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY COULD BE NEARING THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME...ONLY THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
THAN 32. AFTER FRIDAY MORNING...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING OVER COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
DRY AND MILD WILL BE THE PRIMARY MESSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL STEADILY START TO MOVE IN AS THE FRONT
MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER
WATCH FOR WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE AND STRONGER WITH GUSTING UP TO
20 MPH AND RAIN STARTING BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. WITH THIS SECONDARY
PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DECREASE STARTING AROUND 21Z
TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL THEN BELOW 3000 BY 00Z. CONDITIONS SHOW
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 04Z WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING IN LOW LYING
AREAS THEN SCATTERING OUT BY 16Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 012100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE SWITCHING WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO WNW
BRINGING COOLER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DECREASING WET BULB ZEROS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE
BROUGHT SNOW DOWN TO 8000-8500 FT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE
YOU HAVE DECENT QG VV AND UPSLOPE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL END AT MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR FROM A DISORGANIZED FRONT THAT WILL DROP DOWN INTO
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LAPSE RATES OVER DENVER OF 8.6 C/KM BUT DUE TO LACK OF
MUCH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS WITH WIND SPEEDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE PLAINS AND
40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
BY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

INITIALLY...A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A
STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z...BUT BOTH MODELS ALSO LIMIT ANY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ONLY A FEW HOURS OF
RISING VERTICAL MOTIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL MENTION ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING...IN CASE A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS IN WYOMING. THE COOL AIR MOVING INTO THE
STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY COULD BE NEARING THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME...ONLY THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
THAN 32. AFTER FRIDAY MORNING...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING OVER COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
DRY AND MILD WILL BE THE PRIMARY MESSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL STEADILY START TO MOVE IN AS THE FRONT
MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER
WATCH FOR WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE AND STRONGER WITH GUSTING UP TO
20 MPH AND RAIN STARTING BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. WITH THIS SECONDARY
PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DECREASE STARTING AROUND 21Z
TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL THEN BELOW 3000 BY 00Z. CONDITIONS SHOW
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 04Z WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING IN LOW LYING
AREAS THEN SCATTERING OUT BY 16Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 012057
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH COLD NW FLOW SETTLING IN BEHIND LATER TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW DRIVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ALIGN WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND FREEZING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. WEBCAMS...SPOTTERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOTELS
INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES THUS FAR ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED WITH PASSING WAVE THIS
EVENING. WNW COMPONENT TO THE FLOW HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THEM FROM THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO
REMAIN FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHLIGHTS IN
THOSE AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO END QUICKLY WITH CLEARING SKIES
BY SUNRISE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST MORNING SO FAR
THIS SEASON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPGRADED THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL NORTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS
AND THE HIGHER INTERSTATE 70 VALLEYS EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION AND IN
THE GUNNISON AREA. IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS BY MORNING WITH READINGS DROPPING TO AROUND
FREEZING FROM CORTEZ TO PAGOSA. PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AND HELPS CARVE OUT A DEEP CENTRAL
NOAM TROUGH THROUGH WEEK/S END. PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND MID LEVEL
WAA INCREASING AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE BACK OF THE TROUGH TO THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED WESTERN RIDGE. NEW SNOW
COVER/PRECIPITATION AND COOL NIGHTS WILL LEAVE A COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. INVERSIONS ALOFT LOOK TO
PREVENT DEEP MIXING AND THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL ON TAP AS
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN TOMORROW NIGHT AND
MOST AREAS THAT FREEZE TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SAME TOMORROW. A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR
CWA AND AT THE MOST LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AND
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND
STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER OUR CWA
THOUGH MONDAY THEN SHOULD BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE
FORECAST AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD. REALLY
NOTHING PROFOUND TO PROGNOSTICATE DURING THIS PERIOD AS DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING A NICE CHANGE TO THE RECENT
STORMY PATTERN TO START OUT THE FALL SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION...BOTH LIQUID AND
FROZEN...IS FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT
IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AND AREA FLIGHT
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE
KASE AND KEGE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 20Z VFR SHOULD BE
PREVAILING AT THE FLIGHT TERMINALS WITH TEMPORARY LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-021>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 012057
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH COLD NW FLOW SETTLING IN BEHIND LATER TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW DRIVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ALIGN WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND FREEZING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. WEBCAMS...SPOTTERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOTELS
INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES THUS FAR ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED WITH PASSING WAVE THIS
EVENING. WNW COMPONENT TO THE FLOW HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THEM FROM THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO
REMAIN FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHLIGHTS IN
THOSE AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO END QUICKLY WITH CLEARING SKIES
BY SUNRISE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST MORNING SO FAR
THIS SEASON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPGRADED THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL NORTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS
AND THE HIGHER INTERSTATE 70 VALLEYS EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION AND IN
THE GUNNISON AREA. IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS BY MORNING WITH READINGS DROPPING TO AROUND
FREEZING FROM CORTEZ TO PAGOSA. PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AND HELPS CARVE OUT A DEEP CENTRAL
NOAM TROUGH THROUGH WEEK/S END. PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND MID LEVEL
WAA INCREASING AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE BACK OF THE TROUGH TO THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED WESTERN RIDGE. NEW SNOW
COVER/PRECIPITATION AND COOL NIGHTS WILL LEAVE A COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. INVERSIONS ALOFT LOOK TO
PREVENT DEEP MIXING AND THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL ON TAP AS
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN TOMORROW NIGHT AND
MOST AREAS THAT FREEZE TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SAME TOMORROW. A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR
CWA AND AT THE MOST LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AND
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND
STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER OUR CWA
THOUGH MONDAY THEN SHOULD BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE
FORECAST AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD. REALLY
NOTHING PROFOUND TO PROGNOSTICATE DURING THIS PERIOD AS DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING A NICE CHANGE TO THE RECENT
STORMY PATTERN TO START OUT THE FALL SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION...BOTH LIQUID AND
FROZEN...IS FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT
IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AND AREA FLIGHT
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE
KASE AND KEGE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 20Z VFR SHOULD BE
PREVAILING AT THE FLIGHT TERMINALS WITH TEMPORARY LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-021>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 012057
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH COLD NW FLOW SETTLING IN BEHIND LATER TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW DRIVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ALIGN WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND FREEZING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. WEBCAMS...SPOTTERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOTELS
INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES THUS FAR ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED WITH PASSING WAVE THIS
EVENING. WNW COMPONENT TO THE FLOW HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THEM FROM THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO
REMAIN FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHLIGHTS IN
THOSE AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO END QUICKLY WITH CLEARING SKIES
BY SUNRISE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST MORNING SO FAR
THIS SEASON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPGRADED THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL NORTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS
AND THE HIGHER INTERSTATE 70 VALLEYS EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION AND IN
THE GUNNISON AREA. IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS BY MORNING WITH READINGS DROPPING TO AROUND
FREEZING FROM CORTEZ TO PAGOSA. PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AND HELPS CARVE OUT A DEEP CENTRAL
NOAM TROUGH THROUGH WEEK/S END. PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND MID LEVEL
WAA INCREASING AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE BACK OF THE TROUGH TO THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED WESTERN RIDGE. NEW SNOW
COVER/PRECIPITATION AND COOL NIGHTS WILL LEAVE A COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. INVERSIONS ALOFT LOOK TO
PREVENT DEEP MIXING AND THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL ON TAP AS
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN TOMORROW NIGHT AND
MOST AREAS THAT FREEZE TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SAME TOMORROW. A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR
CWA AND AT THE MOST LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AND
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND
STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER OUR CWA
THOUGH MONDAY THEN SHOULD BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE
FORECAST AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD. REALLY
NOTHING PROFOUND TO PROGNOSTICATE DURING THIS PERIOD AS DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING A NICE CHANGE TO THE RECENT
STORMY PATTERN TO START OUT THE FALL SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION...BOTH LIQUID AND
FROZEN...IS FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT
IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AND AREA FLIGHT
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE
KASE AND KEGE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 20Z VFR SHOULD BE
PREVAILING AT THE FLIGHT TERMINALS WITH TEMPORARY LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-021>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 012057
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH COLD NW FLOW SETTLING IN BEHIND LATER TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW DRIVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ALIGN WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND FREEZING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. WEBCAMS...SPOTTERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOTELS
INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES THUS FAR ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED WITH PASSING WAVE THIS
EVENING. WNW COMPONENT TO THE FLOW HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THEM FROM THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO
REMAIN FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHLIGHTS IN
THOSE AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO END QUICKLY WITH CLEARING SKIES
BY SUNRISE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST MORNING SO FAR
THIS SEASON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPGRADED THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL NORTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS
AND THE HIGHER INTERSTATE 70 VALLEYS EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION AND IN
THE GUNNISON AREA. IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS BY MORNING WITH READINGS DROPPING TO AROUND
FREEZING FROM CORTEZ TO PAGOSA. PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AND HELPS CARVE OUT A DEEP CENTRAL
NOAM TROUGH THROUGH WEEK/S END. PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND MID LEVEL
WAA INCREASING AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE BACK OF THE TROUGH TO THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED WESTERN RIDGE. NEW SNOW
COVER/PRECIPITATION AND COOL NIGHTS WILL LEAVE A COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. INVERSIONS ALOFT LOOK TO
PREVENT DEEP MIXING AND THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL ON TAP AS
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN TOMORROW NIGHT AND
MOST AREAS THAT FREEZE TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SAME TOMORROW. A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR
CWA AND AT THE MOST LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY AND
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND
STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER OUR CWA
THOUGH MONDAY THEN SHOULD BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE
FORECAST AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD. REALLY
NOTHING PROFOUND TO PROGNOSTICATE DURING THIS PERIOD AS DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING A NICE CHANGE TO THE RECENT
STORMY PATTERN TO START OUT THE FALL SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION...BOTH LIQUID AND
FROZEN...IS FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT
IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AND AREA FLIGHT
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE
KASE AND KEGE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 20Z VFR SHOULD BE
PREVAILING AT THE FLIGHT TERMINALS WITH TEMPORARY LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-021>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011720
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED TO END THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER THE VALLEY AND SHOULD BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF MVRF CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FOR ALS
AND AFT 21Z THOUGH 06Z FOR COS AND PUB. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30KTS TO COS AND PUB AFT 00Z
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.



&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011720
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED TO END THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER THE VALLEY AND SHOULD BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF MVRF CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FOR ALS
AND AFT 21Z THOUGH 06Z FOR COS AND PUB. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30KTS TO COS AND PUB AFT 00Z
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.



&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A FEW OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM DEBEQUE TO EAGLE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN
IN NORTHEAST UTAH. NEW MET GUIDANCE COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN MANY AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AS WELL THIS MORNING...NOW IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH A BREAK ARRIVING BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION...BOTH LIQUID AND
FROZEN...IS FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT
IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AND AREA FLIGHT
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE
KASE AND KEGE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 20Z VFR SHOULD BE
PREVAILING AT THE FLIGHT TERMINALS WITH TEMPORARY LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-022-023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A FEW OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM DEBEQUE TO EAGLE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN
IN NORTHEAST UTAH. NEW MET GUIDANCE COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN MANY AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AS WELL THIS MORNING...NOW IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH A BREAK ARRIVING BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION...BOTH LIQUID AND
FROZEN...IS FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT
IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AND AREA FLIGHT
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE
KASE AND KEGE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 20Z VFR SHOULD BE
PREVAILING AT THE FLIGHT TERMINALS WITH TEMPORARY LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-022-023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011550
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A FEW OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM DEBEQUE TO EAGLE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN
IN NORTHEAST UTAH. NEW MET GUIDANCE COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN MANY AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AS WELL THIS MORNING...NOW IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH A BREAK ARRIVING BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-022-023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011550
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A FEW OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM DEBEQUE TO EAGLE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN
IN NORTHEAST UTAH. NEW MET GUIDANCE COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN MANY AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AS WELL THIS MORNING...NOW IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH A BREAK ARRIVING BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-022-023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011545
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE FRONT MOVING
WESTERLY THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO ABOUT
10,600 FT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
BRINGING THE REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN SLOPE
AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. UPDATED SKY...POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FALLING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF A 100+ KT JET AND IN VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACRS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT
OR JUST ABOVE TIMBERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TURNS WESTERLY SOMETIME
AROUND MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LEVEL LOWER. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
SNOW MODEL USING QG VV...TEMP...RH...WIND AND LAPSE RATE INPUT
FROM THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 10K FT...WITH
LESSER AMTS DOWN TO AROUND 8500 FEET. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ON THE PLAINS
TODAY. COULD SEE BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 FOR THE PD 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOULD SEE QUICK
DROP OFF IN HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MODELS SHOW A WEAK RATHER DISORGANIZED COLD
FRONT SIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS MID TO LATE
MORNING...CAUSING A SHIFT TO NELY SFC WINDS. A SECOND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COOLER AIR AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.50 POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER
HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
MTN SLOPES...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WEST COAST...ONE LAST
UPPER WAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG 120KT JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO
FAR NE COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LOWERED
FRI MORNING LOWS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FRI AM FOR FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S.
MAY NEED HILITES SINCE A PORTION OF LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD
A HARD FREEZE YET.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLORADO WILL BE UNDER
A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY FEW CHANGES TO OUT
PERIODS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KEPT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN TAFS A BIT LONGER BEFORE THE SWITCH TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 18Z. KEPT CEILINGS IN BUT SHOULD START TO
SEE A BREAK AT ABOUT 16Z AS THE WIND STARTS TO SWITCH AND THE NEXT
FEATURE MOVES IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011545
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE FRONT MOVING
WESTERLY THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO ABOUT
10,600 FT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
BRINGING THE REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN SLOPE
AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. UPDATED SKY...POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FALLING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF A 100+ KT JET AND IN VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACRS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT
OR JUST ABOVE TIMBERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TURNS WESTERLY SOMETIME
AROUND MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LEVEL LOWER. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
SNOW MODEL USING QG VV...TEMP...RH...WIND AND LAPSE RATE INPUT
FROM THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 10K FT...WITH
LESSER AMTS DOWN TO AROUND 8500 FEET. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ON THE PLAINS
TODAY. COULD SEE BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 FOR THE PD 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOULD SEE QUICK
DROP OFF IN HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MODELS SHOW A WEAK RATHER DISORGANIZED COLD
FRONT SIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS MID TO LATE
MORNING...CAUSING A SHIFT TO NELY SFC WINDS. A SECOND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COOLER AIR AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.50 POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER
HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
MTN SLOPES...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WEST COAST...ONE LAST
UPPER WAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG 120KT JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO
FAR NE COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LOWERED
FRI MORNING LOWS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FRI AM FOR FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S.
MAY NEED HILITES SINCE A PORTION OF LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD
A HARD FREEZE YET.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLORADO WILL BE UNDER
A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY FEW CHANGES TO OUT
PERIODS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 934 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KEPT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN TAFS A BIT LONGER BEFORE THE SWITCH TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 18Z. KEPT CEILINGS IN BUT SHOULD START TO
SEE A BREAK AT ABOUT 16Z AS THE WIND STARTS TO SWITCH AND THE NEXT
FEATURE MOVES IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011356
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
756 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED TO END THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER THE VALLEY AND SHOULD BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011356
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
756 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED TO END THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER THE VALLEY AND SHOULD BEGIN WARMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011348
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
748 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011348
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
748 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011348
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
748 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011348
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
748 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
516 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
516 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
516 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011116
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
516 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN LOWER TO MID 30S.  RADAR INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIG.  THE NAM...ALONG WITH MOST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFER A
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE TROUGH BASE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE
TROUGH BASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN
TREND OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...FOLLOWED THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FALLING...WITH THE PEAKS
SEEING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 03Z TO 06Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF OR GFS VERIFY...THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO PLAINS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9-10 KFT. SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO ON TOP OF PIKES PEAK...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH FROST POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE PATCHY
FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING
BACK TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE...

THURSDAY MORNING...AN EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.  DRY FALL WEATHER WILL THEN RESIDE OVER COLORADO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO THURSDAY...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  MIN TEMPS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MOSTLY 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE NIGHT OF THE HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS YEAR.  FOR THE PLAINS...DON`T
THINK IT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...BUT COULD BE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE
PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...MORE COOL STUFF FOR THE PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL MIGRATE BACK
UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS WILL HOLD ONTO TO ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT
BY AS MUCH AS THURSDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...A
WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD OVER COLORADO AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL MIGRATE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING.  CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL.  A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.  REDUCED
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY
01Z WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011042
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011042
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011042
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011042
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 011014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
414 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FALLING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF A 100+ KT JET AND IN VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACRS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT
OR JUST ABOVE TIMBERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TURNS WESTERLY SOMETIME
AROUND MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LEVEL LOWER. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
SNOW MODEL USING QG VV...TEMP...RH...WIND AND LAPSE RATE INPUT
FROM THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 10K FT...WITH
LESSER AMTS DOWN TO AROUND 8500 FEET. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ON THE PLAINS
TODAY. COULD SEE BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 FOR THE PD 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOULD SEE QUICK
DROP OFF IN HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MODELS SHOW A WEAK RATHER DISORGANIZED COLD
FRONT SIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS MID TO LATE
MORNING...CAUSING A SHIFT TO NELY SFC WINDS. A SECOND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COOLER AIR AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.50 POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER
HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
MTN SLOPES...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WEST COAST...ONE LAST
UPPER WAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG 120KT JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO
FAR NE COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LOWERED
FRI MORNING LOWS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FRI AM FOR FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S.
MAY NEED HILITES SINCE A PORTION OF LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD
A HARD FREEZE YET.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLORADO WILL BE UNDER
A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY FEW CHANGES TO OUT
PERIODS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

SKIES WILL STEADILY FILL WITH CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND MID-MORNING. LOOK FOR LIGHT SLY
WINDS TO SHIFT TO AN EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT AT 7-12 KTS BY AROUND
15Z. A SECOND PUSH OF COOL...MOIST AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROBABLY SET OFF THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA. SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 3000 FT AGL WITH A COLD RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
VSBYS MAY ALSO LOWER TO 2-3 MILES AT TIMES WITH THE PCPN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER...
STABLE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
SHALLOW DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD SKIES CLEAR BEFORE
SUNRISE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES 31..33>34 FROM 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 011014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
414 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FALLING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF A 100+ KT JET AND IN VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACRS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT
OR JUST ABOVE TIMBERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TURNS WESTERLY SOMETIME
AROUND MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LEVEL LOWER. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
SNOW MODEL USING QG VV...TEMP...RH...WIND AND LAPSE RATE INPUT
FROM THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 10K FT...WITH
LESSER AMTS DOWN TO AROUND 8500 FEET. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ON THE PLAINS
TODAY. COULD SEE BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 FOR THE PD 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOULD SEE QUICK
DROP OFF IN HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MODELS SHOW A WEAK RATHER DISORGANIZED COLD
FRONT SIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS MID TO LATE
MORNING...CAUSING A SHIFT TO NELY SFC WINDS. A SECOND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COOLER AIR AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.50 POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER
HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
MTN SLOPES...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WEST COAST...ONE LAST
UPPER WAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG 120KT JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO
FAR NE COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LOWERED
FRI MORNING LOWS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FRI AM FOR FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S.
MAY NEED HILITES SINCE A PORTION OF LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD
A HARD FREEZE YET.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLORADO WILL BE UNDER
A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY FEW CHANGES TO OUT
PERIODS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

SKIES WILL STEADILY FILL WITH CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND MID-MORNING. LOOK FOR LIGHT SLY
WINDS TO SHIFT TO AN EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT AT 7-12 KTS BY AROUND
15Z. A SECOND PUSH OF COOL...MOIST AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROBABLY SET OFF THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA. SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 3000 FT AGL WITH A COLD RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
VSBYS MAY ALSO LOWER TO 2-3 MILES AT TIMES WITH THE PCPN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER...
STABLE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
SHALLOW DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD SKIES CLEAR BEFORE
SUNRISE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES 31..33>34 FROM 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 011014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
414 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FALLING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF A 100+ KT JET AND IN VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACRS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT
OR JUST ABOVE TIMBERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TURNS WESTERLY SOMETIME
AROUND MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LEVEL LOWER. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
SNOW MODEL USING QG VV...TEMP...RH...WIND AND LAPSE RATE INPUT
FROM THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 10K FT...WITH
LESSER AMTS DOWN TO AROUND 8500 FEET. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ON THE PLAINS
TODAY. COULD SEE BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 FOR THE PD 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOULD SEE QUICK
DROP OFF IN HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MODELS SHOW A WEAK RATHER DISORGANIZED COLD
FRONT SIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS MID TO LATE
MORNING...CAUSING A SHIFT TO NELY SFC WINDS. A SECOND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COOLER AIR AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.50 POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER
HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
MTN SLOPES...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WEST COAST...ONE LAST
UPPER WAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG 120KT JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO
FAR NE COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LOWERED
FRI MORNING LOWS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FRI AM FOR FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S.
MAY NEED HILITES SINCE A PORTION OF LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD
A HARD FREEZE YET.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLORADO WILL BE UNDER
A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY FEW CHANGES TO OUT
PERIODS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

SKIES WILL STEADILY FILL WITH CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND MID-MORNING. LOOK FOR LIGHT SLY
WINDS TO SHIFT TO AN EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT AT 7-12 KTS BY AROUND
15Z. A SECOND PUSH OF COOL...MOIST AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROBABLY SET OFF THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA. SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 3000 FT AGL WITH A COLD RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
VSBYS MAY ALSO LOWER TO 2-3 MILES AT TIMES WITH THE PCPN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER...
STABLE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
SHALLOW DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD SKIES CLEAR BEFORE
SUNRISE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES 31..33>34 FROM 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 011014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
414 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FALLING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF A 100+ KT JET AND IN VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACRS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT
OR JUST ABOVE TIMBERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TURNS WESTERLY SOMETIME
AROUND MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LEVEL LOWER. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
SNOW MODEL USING QG VV...TEMP...RH...WIND AND LAPSE RATE INPUT
FROM THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 10K FT...WITH
LESSER AMTS DOWN TO AROUND 8500 FEET. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS BOTH IN THE MTNS AND ON THE PLAINS
TODAY. COULD SEE BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 FOR THE PD 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...SHOULD SEE QUICK
DROP OFF IN HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MOVING OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MODELS SHOW A WEAK RATHER DISORGANIZED COLD
FRONT SIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NERN COLORADO PLAINS MID TO LATE
MORNING...CAUSING A SHIFT TO NELY SFC WINDS. A SECOND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COOLER AIR AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.50 POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER
HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND UP ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA AND OVER THE HIGHER WINDWARD
MTN SLOPES...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WEST COAST...ONE LAST
UPPER WAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG 120KT JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO
FAR NE COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LOWERED
FRI MORNING LOWS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FRI AM FOR FREEZE/FROST POTENTIAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S.
MAY NEED HILITES SINCE A PORTION OF LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD
A HARD FREEZE YET.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLORADO WILL BE UNDER
A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY FEW CHANGES TO OUT
PERIODS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

SKIES WILL STEADILY FILL WITH CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND MID-MORNING. LOOK FOR LIGHT SLY
WINDS TO SHIFT TO AN EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT AT 7-12 KTS BY AROUND
15Z. A SECOND PUSH OF COOL...MOIST AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROBABLY SET OFF THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA. SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 3000 FT AGL WITH A COLD RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
VSBYS MAY ALSO LOWER TO 2-3 MILES AT TIMES WITH THE PCPN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER...
STABLE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
SHALLOW DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD SKIES CLEAR BEFORE
SUNRISE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES 31..33>34 FROM 12 PM MDT TODAY TO 12
AM MDT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010515
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010515
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010416
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT NORTHERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS ARE DISORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...BUT THIS COLD
POOL LAGS BEHIND THE BEST MOISTURE. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS STILL
FITS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

OUR CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIALLY ADDING OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES
TO THE FIRST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OF THE SEASON. UTAH ZONE
23/THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL STAY THERE IN COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SO WE WILL ADD THIS ZONE
TO THE ADVISORY.

TWO OTHER ZONES OF CONCERN ARE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ZONE 3/
THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND ZONE 9/ THE GRAND MESA. ZONE 3
IS ALL BELOW 9000 FEET AND THUS WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW.
ZONE 9 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BUT THE
NAM IS SHOWING A QUICK DRYING OF THE AIR MASS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ZONE 18/ THE NW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TOO SHOW A QUICK
DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT THESE ZONES
IN FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUANS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH OF A BREAK...THE
SECOND WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THE SECOND WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH...SO SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS DECREASE SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID EVENING.

WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS...
KEEPING ALL THE HIGHER VALLEYS ABOVE FREEZING. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
AGAIN DROPPED BELOW FREEZING AT GUNNISON FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV AND
MET WERE BOTH TOO COLD THERE LAST NIGHT. AND WITH THE WAVE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY WEDNESDAY/S UPCOMING COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH...FEEL THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE MORE INTERESTING STORY IS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS NOW HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FASTER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
JUST CROSSED INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AT BREAK OF DAY. THEN WILL
SWEEP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE BY THE EVENING. ONE CAVEAT OF NOTE HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 SHOWS THE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE MOST
VIGOROUS PORTION TAKING AIM AT THE N-S CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MOAB-GRAND JUNCTION AREAS. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION FOR
NOW AS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND OTHER MODELS ALL SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE TRACK.

THEREFORE THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN GOOD CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE FAVORED AREAS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DRIVE THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TO AROUND 9000
FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING. THIS AND THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE
FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN-TOP FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
EARLY SEASON EVENT FROM 9 AM WED MORNING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. COVERED IN
THE ADVISORY ARE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF
VAIL PASS AND NORTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLATTOPS AND THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS
EXITS TO OUR EAST. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FOR A VERY COOL MORNING AS
CLOUDS DIMINISH. AT 700MB...MODELS SHOW 12Z TEMPS WILL HAVE FALLEN
TO -4C OVER THE NORTH AND AROUND ZERO C ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
COLORADO VALLEYS...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. HOWEVER OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...OR MOISTURE MAY ERODE SLOWER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS
TRAILING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BRING IN A DRY FORECAST ON NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS WARMING
ALOFT WILL CREATE AN INVERSION WHICH MAY KEEP COOLER AIR TRAPPED
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER
UNDER THIS RIDGE BUT FOR NOW LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE TOUCHING SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010416
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT NORTHERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS ARE DISORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...BUT THIS COLD
POOL LAGS BEHIND THE BEST MOISTURE. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS STILL
FITS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

OUR CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIALLY ADDING OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES
TO THE FIRST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OF THE SEASON. UTAH ZONE
23/THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL STAY THERE IN COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SO WE WILL ADD THIS ZONE
TO THE ADVISORY.

TWO OTHER ZONES OF CONCERN ARE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ZONE 3/
THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND ZONE 9/ THE GRAND MESA. ZONE 3
IS ALL BELOW 9000 FEET AND THUS WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW.
ZONE 9 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BUT THE
NAM IS SHOWING A QUICK DRYING OF THE AIR MASS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ZONE 18/ THE NW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TOO SHOW A QUICK
DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT THESE ZONES
IN FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUANS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH OF A BREAK...THE
SECOND WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THE SECOND WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH...SO SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS DECREASE SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID EVENING.

WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS...
KEEPING ALL THE HIGHER VALLEYS ABOVE FREEZING. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
AGAIN DROPPED BELOW FREEZING AT GUNNISON FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV AND
MET WERE BOTH TOO COLD THERE LAST NIGHT. AND WITH THE WAVE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY WEDNESDAY/S UPCOMING COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH...FEEL THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE MORE INTERESTING STORY IS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS NOW HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FASTER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
JUST CROSSED INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AT BREAK OF DAY. THEN WILL
SWEEP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE BY THE EVENING. ONE CAVEAT OF NOTE HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 SHOWS THE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE MOST
VIGOROUS PORTION TAKING AIM AT THE N-S CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MOAB-GRAND JUNCTION AREAS. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION FOR
NOW AS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND OTHER MODELS ALL SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE TRACK.

THEREFORE THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN GOOD CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE FAVORED AREAS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DRIVE THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TO AROUND 9000
FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING. THIS AND THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE
FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN-TOP FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
EARLY SEASON EVENT FROM 9 AM WED MORNING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. COVERED IN
THE ADVISORY ARE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF
VAIL PASS AND NORTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLATTOPS AND THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS
EXITS TO OUR EAST. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FOR A VERY COOL MORNING AS
CLOUDS DIMINISH. AT 700MB...MODELS SHOW 12Z TEMPS WILL HAVE FALLEN
TO -4C OVER THE NORTH AND AROUND ZERO C ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
COLORADO VALLEYS...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. HOWEVER OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...OR MOISTURE MAY ERODE SLOWER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS
TRAILING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BRING IN A DRY FORECAST ON NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS WARMING
ALOFT WILL CREATE AN INVERSION WHICH MAY KEEP COOLER AIR TRAPPED
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER
UNDER THIS RIDGE BUT FOR NOW LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE TOUCHING SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010416
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT NORTHERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS ARE DISORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...BUT THIS COLD
POOL LAGS BEHIND THE BEST MOISTURE. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS STILL
FITS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

OUR CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIALLY ADDING OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES
TO THE FIRST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OF THE SEASON. UTAH ZONE
23/THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL STAY THERE IN COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SO WE WILL ADD THIS ZONE
TO THE ADVISORY.

TWO OTHER ZONES OF CONCERN ARE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ZONE 3/
THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND ZONE 9/ THE GRAND MESA. ZONE 3
IS ALL BELOW 9000 FEET AND THUS WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW.
ZONE 9 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BUT THE
NAM IS SHOWING A QUICK DRYING OF THE AIR MASS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ZONE 18/ THE NW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TOO SHOW A QUICK
DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT THESE ZONES
IN FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUANS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH OF A BREAK...THE
SECOND WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THE SECOND WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH...SO SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS DECREASE SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID EVENING.

WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS...
KEEPING ALL THE HIGHER VALLEYS ABOVE FREEZING. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
AGAIN DROPPED BELOW FREEZING AT GUNNISON FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV AND
MET WERE BOTH TOO COLD THERE LAST NIGHT. AND WITH THE WAVE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY WEDNESDAY/S UPCOMING COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH...FEEL THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE MORE INTERESTING STORY IS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS NOW HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FASTER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
JUST CROSSED INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AT BREAK OF DAY. THEN WILL
SWEEP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE BY THE EVENING. ONE CAVEAT OF NOTE HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 SHOWS THE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE MOST
VIGOROUS PORTION TAKING AIM AT THE N-S CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MOAB-GRAND JUNCTION AREAS. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION FOR
NOW AS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND OTHER MODELS ALL SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE TRACK.

THEREFORE THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN GOOD CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE FAVORED AREAS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DRIVE THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TO AROUND 9000
FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING. THIS AND THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE
FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN-TOP FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
EARLY SEASON EVENT FROM 9 AM WED MORNING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. COVERED IN
THE ADVISORY ARE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF
VAIL PASS AND NORTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLATTOPS AND THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS
EXITS TO OUR EAST. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FOR A VERY COOL MORNING AS
CLOUDS DIMINISH. AT 700MB...MODELS SHOW 12Z TEMPS WILL HAVE FALLEN
TO -4C OVER THE NORTH AND AROUND ZERO C ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
COLORADO VALLEYS...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. HOWEVER OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...OR MOISTURE MAY ERODE SLOWER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS
TRAILING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BRING IN A DRY FORECAST ON NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS WARMING
ALOFT WILL CREATE AN INVERSION WHICH MAY KEEP COOLER AIR TRAPPED
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER
UNDER THIS RIDGE BUT FOR NOW LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE TOUCHING SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010416
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT NORTHERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS ARE DISORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...BUT THIS COLD
POOL LAGS BEHIND THE BEST MOISTURE. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS STILL
FITS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

OUR CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIALLY ADDING OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES
TO THE FIRST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OF THE SEASON. UTAH ZONE
23/THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL STAY THERE IN COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SO WE WILL ADD THIS ZONE
TO THE ADVISORY.

TWO OTHER ZONES OF CONCERN ARE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ZONE 3/
THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND ZONE 9/ THE GRAND MESA. ZONE 3
IS ALL BELOW 9000 FEET AND THUS WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW.
ZONE 9 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BUT THE
NAM IS SHOWING A QUICK DRYING OF THE AIR MASS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ZONE 18/ THE NW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TOO SHOW A QUICK
DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT THESE ZONES
IN FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUANS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH OF A BREAK...THE
SECOND WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THE SECOND WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH...SO SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS DECREASE SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID EVENING.

WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS...
KEEPING ALL THE HIGHER VALLEYS ABOVE FREEZING. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
AGAIN DROPPED BELOW FREEZING AT GUNNISON FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV AND
MET WERE BOTH TOO COLD THERE LAST NIGHT. AND WITH THE WAVE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY WEDNESDAY/S UPCOMING COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH...FEEL THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE MORE INTERESTING STORY IS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS NOW HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FASTER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
JUST CROSSED INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AT BREAK OF DAY. THEN WILL
SWEEP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE BY THE EVENING. ONE CAVEAT OF NOTE HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 SHOWS THE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE MOST
VIGOROUS PORTION TAKING AIM AT THE N-S CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MOAB-GRAND JUNCTION AREAS. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION FOR
NOW AS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND OTHER MODELS ALL SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE TRACK.

THEREFORE THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN GOOD CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE FAVORED AREAS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DRIVE THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TO AROUND 9000
FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING. THIS AND THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE
FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN-TOP FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
EARLY SEASON EVENT FROM 9 AM WED MORNING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. COVERED IN
THE ADVISORY ARE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF
VAIL PASS AND NORTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLATTOPS AND THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS
EXITS TO OUR EAST. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FOR A VERY COOL MORNING AS
CLOUDS DIMINISH. AT 700MB...MODELS SHOW 12Z TEMPS WILL HAVE FALLEN
TO -4C OVER THE NORTH AND AROUND ZERO C ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
COLORADO VALLEYS...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. HOWEVER OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...OR MOISTURE MAY ERODE SLOWER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS
TRAILING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BRING IN A DRY FORECAST ON NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS WARMING
ALOFT WILL CREATE AN INVERSION WHICH MAY KEEP COOLER AIR TRAPPED
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER
UNDER THIS RIDGE BUT FOR NOW LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE TOUCHING SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010306
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
906 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN CO AT THIS TIME. SOME
LIGHTNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NERN
PLAINS. THIS ALL CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST SO ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...IT WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL BRING A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED ABOVE 10500 FEET. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA. Q-G INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY AND AIRMASS EVENTUALLY SATURATES IN MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...ANY LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER
EFFICIENT AND PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PLAINS WILL HAVE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS BEFORE PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP THAT PROCESS WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 10500 FEET DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW QG LIFT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEING
REPLACED BY QG DECENT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE ABOVE 6500
KFT...WITH ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9500
FEET. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE
EVENING....WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
THURSDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
NUDGE TOWARD COLORADO BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER COLORADO WEAKENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 20W14

WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO DRAINAGE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH BASED SHOWERS SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH FRONT TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010306
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
906 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN CO AT THIS TIME. SOME
LIGHTNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NERN
PLAINS. THIS ALL CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST SO ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...IT WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL BRING A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED ABOVE 10500 FEET. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA. Q-G INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY AND AIRMASS EVENTUALLY SATURATES IN MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...ANY LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER
EFFICIENT AND PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PLAINS WILL HAVE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS BEFORE PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP THAT PROCESS WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 10500 FEET DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW QG LIFT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEING
REPLACED BY QG DECENT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE ABOVE 6500
KFT...WITH ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9500
FEET. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE
EVENING....WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
THURSDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
NUDGE TOWARD COLORADO BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER COLORADO WEAKENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 20W14

WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO DRAINAGE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH BASED SHOWERS SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH FRONT TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 302149
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUANS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH OF A BREAK...THE
SECOND WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THE SECOND WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH...SO SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS DECREASE SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID EVENING.

WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS...
KEEPING ALL THE HIGHER VALLEYS ABOVE FREEZING. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
AGAIN DROPPED BELOW FREEZING AT GUNNISON FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV AND
MET WERE BOTH TOO COLD THERE LAST NIGHT. AND WITH THE WAVE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY WEDNESDAY/S UPCOMING COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH...FEEL THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE MORE INTERESTING STORY IS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS NOW HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FASTER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
JUST CROSSED INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AT BREAK OF DAY. THEN WILL
SWEEP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE BY THE EVENING. ONE CAVEAT OF NOTE HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 SHOWS THE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE MOST
VIGOROUS PORTION TAKING AIM AT THE N-S CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MOAB-GRAND JUNCTION AREAS. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION FOR
NOW AS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND OTHER MODELS ALL SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE TRACK.

THEREFORE THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN GOOD CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE FAVORED AREAS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DRIVE THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TO AROUND 9000
FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING. THIS AND THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE
FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN-TOP FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
EARLY SEASON EVENT FROM 9 AM WED MORNING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. COVERED IN
THE ADVISORY ARE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF
VAIL PASS AND NORTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLATTOPS AND THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS
EXITS TO OUR EAST. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FOR A VERY COOL MORNING AS
CLOUDS DIMINISH. AT 700MB...MODELS SHOW 12Z TEMPS WILL HAVE FALLEN
TO -4C OVER THE NORTH AND AROUND ZERO C ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
COLORADO VALLEYS...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. HOWEVER OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...OR MOISTURE MAY ERODE SLOWER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE MILD.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS
TRAILING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BRING IN A DRY FORECAST ON NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS WARMING
ALOFT WILL CREATE AN INVERSION WHICH MAY KEEP COOLER AIR TRAPPED
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER
UNDER THIS RIDGE BUT FOR NOW LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE TOUCHING SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MIDDLE TO EAST I-70
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTER 19Z. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IFR WILL DOMINATE AT AREA
AIRPORTS...BUT A PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA MAY IMPACT KRIL...KASE...
KHDN...KHDN...KSBS...KEGE. OVER THE SOUTH...A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 302119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
01Z. TAFS WILL MENTION VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFER 01Z. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE STATE TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KPUB 302119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
01Z. TAFS WILL MENTION VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFER 01Z. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE STATE TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KPUB 302119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
01Z. TAFS WILL MENTION VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFER 01Z. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE STATE TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KPUB 302119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.

OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
01Z. TAFS WILL MENTION VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFER 01Z. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE STATE TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 302111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...IT WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL BRING A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED ABOVE 10500 FEET. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA. Q-G INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY AND AIRMASS EVENTUALLY SATURATES IN MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...ANY LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER
EFFICIENT AND PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PLAINS WILL HAVE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS BEFORE PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP THAT PROCESS WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 10500 FEET DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW QG LIFT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEING
REPLACED BY QG DECENT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE ABOVE 6500
KFT...WITH ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9500
FEET. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE
EVENING....WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
THURSDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
NUDGE TOWARD COLORADO BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER COLORADO WEAKENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ABOUT 20 PERCENT AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE LIGHT SHOWERS. ON
MONDAY...SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 10000 FEET IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO LOWERING CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. ILS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z-22Z WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LOWERING CEILINGS AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SETTLE TO LIGHT DRAINAGE...THEN TURN NORTHERLY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED BY 20Z-21Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF A PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY AROUND 15Z-17Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 302111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...IT WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL BRING A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED ABOVE 10500 FEET. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING Q-G
VERTICAL MOTION WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA. Q-G INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY AND AIRMASS EVENTUALLY SATURATES IN MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...ANY LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER
EFFICIENT AND PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PLAINS WILL HAVE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS BEFORE PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP THAT PROCESS WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 10500 FEET DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW QG LIFT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEING
REPLACED BY QG DECENT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE ABOVE 6500
KFT...WITH ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9500
FEET. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE
EVENING....WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
THURSDAY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
NUDGE TOWARD COLORADO BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER COLORADO WEAKENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT AGL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ABOUT 20 PERCENT AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE LIGHT SHOWERS. ON
MONDAY...SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 10000 FEET IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO LOWERING CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. ILS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z-22Z WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LOWERING CEILINGS AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SETTLE TO LIGHT DRAINAGE...THEN TURN NORTHERLY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED BY 20Z-21Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF A PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT EARLIER IN THE DAY AROUND 15Z-17Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301706
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
WAVES PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL TO EAST I-70
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AND
WILL BE A BIGGER PLAYER THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MIDDLE TO EAST I-70
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTER 19Z. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IFR WILL DOMINATE AT AREA
AIRPORTS...BUT A PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA MAY IMPACT KRIL...KASE...
KHDN...KHDN...KSBS...KEGE. OVER THE SOUTH...A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301706
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
WAVES PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL TO EAST I-70
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AND
WILL BE A BIGGER PLAYER THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MIDDLE TO EAST I-70
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTER 19Z. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IFR WILL DOMINATE AT AREA
AIRPORTS...BUT A PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA MAY IMPACT KRIL...KASE...
KHDN...KHDN...KSBS...KEGE. OVER THE SOUTH...A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301658
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH GUSTY WINDS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH 30 TO 40
MPH GUSTS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. HOWEVER...THEY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT EASES. MEANWHILE...WITH INCREASED MIXING WE DO EXPECT
CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME SOME LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN EASTERLY IN THIS CURRENT WEATHER
SCENARIO SINCE STRONGEST DOWNWARD FORCING IS PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD SOME LOW POPS ON THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE AND ENOUGH HEATING
TODAY TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX OUT STABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK
WAVE MOVING ACROSS UTAH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COOLING TO ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHICS COMBINING WITH WEAK LIFT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.

CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO MOVE OFF THE
FOOTHILLS. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL
EASTERLIES THAT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BATTLING THROUGH 00Z.
WEST WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS WHILE ANY EASTERLIES WILL
BE LIGHTER AROUND 5-10 KTS. AFTER 00Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO NORMAL DIURNAL SOUTH/SOUTHEWESTERLIES NEAR 10 KTS.
LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER 00Z-05Z BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH FOR VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301658
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH GUSTY WINDS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH 30 TO 40
MPH GUSTS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. HOWEVER...THEY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT EASES. MEANWHILE...WITH INCREASED MIXING WE DO EXPECT
CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME SOME LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN EASTERLY IN THIS CURRENT WEATHER
SCENARIO SINCE STRONGEST DOWNWARD FORCING IS PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD SOME LOW POPS ON THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE AND ENOUGH HEATING
TODAY TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX OUT STABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK
WAVE MOVING ACROSS UTAH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COOLING TO ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHICS COMBINING WITH WEAK LIFT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.

CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO MOVE OFF THE
FOOTHILLS. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL
EASTERLIES THAT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BATTLING THROUGH 00Z.
WEST WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS WHILE ANY EASTERLIES WILL
BE LIGHTER AROUND 5-10 KTS. AFTER 00Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO NORMAL DIURNAL SOUTH/SOUTHEWESTERLIES NEAR 10 KTS.
LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER 00Z-05Z BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH FOR VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301631
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FORTHCOMING. A TRAILING UPPER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO TODAY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PARK AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS A
BAND OF SHOWERS OVER PUEBLO COUNTY AFTER 01Z...BUT THE RAP KEEPS
THE PLAINS DRY. WILL FAVOR THE RAP SOLUTION...SINCE IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LAST VORT MAX IN THE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

WFO BOU WILL BE PROVIDING FULL SERVICE BACKUP FOR US TODAY
STARTING AT APPROXIMATELY 7 AM MDT WHILE WFO PUEBLO UNDERGOES
A MAJOR COMPUTER UPGRADE. WFO PUB SHOULD BE BACK IN CONTROL
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...

SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.  IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING.  THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST.  THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. KALS COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS WILL SEE LESS WIND.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS/WFO BOULDER
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...DANKERS/WFO BOULDER




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301250
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

WFO BOU WILL BE PROVIDING FULL SERVICE BACKUP FOR US TODAY
STARTING AT APPROXIMATELY 7 AM MDT WHILE WFO PUEBLO UNDERGOES
A MAJOR COMPUTER UPGRADE. WFO PUB SHOULD BE BACK IN CONTROL
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...

SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.  IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING.  THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST.  THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GENERALLY A DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.  SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT OR NEAR THE KALS
TERMINAL THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.  SAME THING COULD HAPPEN
AGAIN TONIGHT 08-14Z.

OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PORTION OF THE DIVIDE...DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN TERRAIN LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VIS. A
PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA COULD IMPACT KRIL...KASE...AND KEGE.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS OVER SE UTAH AND SW
COLORADO...BUT A SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED -SHRA WILL LINGER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN TERRAIN LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VIS. A
PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA COULD IMPACT KRIL...KASE...AND KEGE.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS OVER SE UTAH AND SW
COLORADO...BUT A SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED -SHRA WILL LINGER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN TERRAIN LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VIS. A
PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA COULD IMPACT KRIL...KASE...AND KEGE.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS OVER SE UTAH AND SW
COLORADO...BUT A SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED -SHRA WILL LINGER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN TERRAIN LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VIS. A
PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA COULD IMPACT KRIL...KASE...AND KEGE.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS OVER SE UTAH AND SW
COLORADO...BUT A SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED -SHRA WILL LINGER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301005
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.

CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT DENVER AREA TERMINAL AND GATES
THROUGH 12Z/WED. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY LOWER BELOW 10 THSND FT
AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO AROUND 8 THSND FT AGL
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. AT
THIS TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
DRAINAGE WINDS OF 5-12KTS AT DIA AND APA THROUGH MID-
MORNING...THEN A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE SHIFT TO WLY WINDS OF 7-14KTS
BY MIDDAY WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE RESUMING A TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND
...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-25KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT BJC NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN 7-13 NWLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN S-SWLY WINDS OF 4-8KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301005
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.

CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT DENVER AREA TERMINAL AND GATES
THROUGH 12Z/WED. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY LOWER BELOW 10 THSND FT
AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO AROUND 8 THSND FT AGL
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. AT
THIS TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
DRAINAGE WINDS OF 5-12KTS AT DIA AND APA THROUGH MID-
MORNING...THEN A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE SHIFT TO WLY WINDS OF 7-14KTS
BY MIDDAY WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE RESUMING A TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND
...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-25KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT BJC NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN 7-13 NWLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN S-SWLY WINDS OF 4-8KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301005
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301005
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301005
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301005
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KPUB 301004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...

SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.  IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING.  THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST.  THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GENERALLY A DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.  SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT OR NEAR THE KALS
TERMINAL THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.  SAME THING COULD HAPPEN
AGAIN TONIGHT 08-14Z.

OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PORTION OF THE DIVIDE...DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301004
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...

SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING.  BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.  IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING.  THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST.  THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GENERALLY A DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.  SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT OR NEAR THE KALS
TERMINAL THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.  SAME THING COULD HAPPEN
AGAIN TONIGHT 08-14Z.

OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PORTION OF THE DIVIDE...DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ069>071.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP REMAINDER OF SVR WATCH WITH LATEST UPDATE..AND LOWER
POPS TO ISOLATED ALONG THE KS BORDER AS MAIN PORTION OF THE SQUALL
LINE HAS MOVED INTO KS. DID ADD BACK SOME LOW POPS TO NRN
TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW WRAP AROUND -SHRA WILL BRUSH
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RAMPART RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GROUND FOG AT KALS NEAR SUNRISE AS RAIN
FELL IN THE VALLEY TODAY. IF ANY OCCURS IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PATCHY
AND BRIEF AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP REMAINDER OF SVR WATCH WITH LATEST UPDATE..AND LOWER
POPS TO ISOLATED ALONG THE KS BORDER AS MAIN PORTION OF THE SQUALL
LINE HAS MOVED INTO KS. DID ADD BACK SOME LOW POPS TO NRN
TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW WRAP AROUND -SHRA WILL BRUSH
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RAMPART RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GROUND FOG AT KALS NEAR SUNRISE AS RAIN
FELL IN THE VALLEY TODAY. IF ANY OCCURS IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PATCHY
AND BRIEF AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300349
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER AND AREA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KGUC TO KRIL TO KCAG. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300349
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER AND AREA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KGUC TO KRIL TO KCAG. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300349
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER AND AREA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KGUC TO KRIL TO KCAG. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300349
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER AND AREA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KGUC TO KRIL TO KCAG. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 300311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
911 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LOW OVER DENVER MOVING NORTHEAST. SQUALL LINE HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE STATE AND WRAPAROUND RAIN SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED BACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS. JUST HAVE SOME NEW STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF DENVER AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ADJUST. THINK THE CONVERGENCE AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS
THIS AREA MOVES SOUTHEAST...BUT HAD TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF
THUNDER IN. THE STEADIER RAIN IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED...SO RAISED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
THERE IS SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
TO BE ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET BUT WITH VALLEY TEMPS IN THE 30S
THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS IN
NORTH AND MIDDLE PARKS. WARM GROUND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL
IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE AND SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE PATCHES OF
STRATUS EARLIER TODAY HAVE LEFT BEHIND SOME SHALLOW STABLE
LAYERS...BUT THEY ARE ERODING AS MIXING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
FAST APPROACHING Q-G LIFT. THIS RATHER STRONG AND COMPACT LOBE ON
THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT IS INDEED IN PLAY AS THE
COOLING ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED CAPES TO INCREASE TO
1000-1500 J/KG ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH
OF DENVER IN THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AREAS FROM THE PALMER
DIVIDE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...COULD SEE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT...AS WELL
AS EMBEDDED TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...0-1KM
HELICITY OF 120-180 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM HELICITY OF 180-220 M2/S2.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WILL OCCUR WITH TRAINING
CELLS/LINES. OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW BUT
MINOR FLOODING LIKELY WHERE STORMS TRAIN.

THERE MAY BE A SECOND BATCH OF LESS INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT REDEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. BY LATE
EVENING...WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO ABOUT 30-35
KTS CROSS MOUNTAIN AND A MEAN STATE CRITICAL LAYER ALSO DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL KEEP STRONG AND PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. SHOULD SEE OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COLD
ADVECTION STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A 1-4 INCH SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY...MAINLY ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT SOME SNOW MAY REACH VALLEY
FLOORS LATE.

THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY. ON THE PLAINS...A DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THEN INCREASES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES AT MODERATE VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. ASCENT SHOULD BE FINISHED BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY
WITH STRONG DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE CWA THEREAFTER. OROGRAPHICS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT BUT EAST OF THE HILLS A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE IS FORECAST THAT COINCIDES WITH QG ASCENT ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THIS PASSING
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EVEN IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PARKS AND
THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. WILL NOT HOIST ANY
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT BUT AN ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH AND DRY AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA TO DIMINISH
WITH HIGHER CEILINGS BY 06Z AND WINDS BECOMING A LIGHTER SW. AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300300
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP REMAINDER OF SVR WATCH WITH LATEST UPDATE..AND LOWER
POPS TO ISOLATED ALONG THE KS BORDER AS MAIN PORTION OF THE SQUALL
LINE HAS MOVED INTO KS. DID ADD BACK SOME LOW POPS TO NRN
TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW WRAP AROUND -SHRA WILL BRUSH
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RAMPART RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z AND
OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300300
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP REMAINDER OF SVR WATCH WITH LATEST UPDATE..AND LOWER
POPS TO ISOLATED ALONG THE KS BORDER AS MAIN PORTION OF THE SQUALL
LINE HAS MOVED INTO KS. DID ADD BACK SOME LOW POPS TO NRN
TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW WRAP AROUND -SHRA WILL BRUSH
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RAMPART RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z AND
OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300013
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
613 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER AND AREA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KGUC TO KRIL TO KCAG. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CLEARED OUT OF EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
CO...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KCNY...KVEL...KGJT...
KDRO AND KTEX OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND NW MTS
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER
18Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CAUSE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT
KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 300013
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
613 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER AND AREA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KGUC TO KRIL TO KCAG. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CLEARED OUT OF EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
CO...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KCNY...KVEL...KGJT...
KDRO AND KTEX OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND NW MTS
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER
18Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CAUSE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT
KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
602 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z AND
OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
602 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING OVER ALS THROUGH 00Z AND
OVER COS AND PUB THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH 06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MW



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