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000
FXUS65 KPUB 281134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE FOUND ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. H7 TEMPS
TODAY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA WL RANGE FROM ABOUT 5C TO 10C.  HIGH
TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS. THE
RECORD HIGH FOR COLO SPGS IS 73 SET IN 1998...FOR PUEBLO IS 75 SET
IN 1998.  THE HIGH VALLEYS WL MOSTLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.

IT WILL BE WINDY OVR THE MTNS AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  WRF MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
DID SHOW STABLE LAYER AROUND MTN TOP...WITH A PERIOD OF REVERSE
SHEAR THIS EVENING. DURING THIS TIME THE WRF SHOWS A SMALL PORTION
OF THE SRN SANGRES NR THE NM BORDER...POSSIBLY REACHING HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.  FOR NOW WL JUST SHOW STRONG WINDS IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.
WESTERLY WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY NR THE MTNS AND OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

...WINDY TO VERY WINDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG JET STREAM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WESTERLY H7 FLOW PROGGED BETWEEN 25-40 KTS...AND WITH GOOD
MIXING EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A
FEW POSSIBLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND
DAMAGING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY H7-H6 WINDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 50-65KTS...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING MT TOP
INVERSION AND REVERSE SHEAR THROUGH 12Z-15Z SUN...BEFORE WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
PLENTY OF TIME BEFORE THE EXPECTED ONSET...WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS STRONG WIND POTENTIAL BEFORE
ISSUING ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 70 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PASSING JET CORE ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TO OOZE INTO EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MODERATING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF THE COLDEST AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND HAVE STAYED AT OR BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHERE
SOUNDING DATA INDICATING STRONG INVERSIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE
DAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST WEAKENS TO AN OPEN
WAVE WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY SW TO W WINDS IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR
THE MTNS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE FOUND ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. H7 TEMPS
TODAY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA WL RANGE FROM ABOUT 5C TO 10C.  HIGH
TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS. THE
RECORD HIGH FOR COLO SPGS IS 73 SET IN 1998...FOR PUEBLO IS 75 SET
IN 1998.  THE HIGH VALLEYS WL MOSTLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.

IT WILL BE WINDY OVR THE MTNS AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  WRF MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
DID SHOW STABLE LAYER AROUND MTN TOP...WITH A PERIOD OF REVERSE
SHEAR THIS EVENING. DURING THIS TIME THE WRF SHOWS A SMALL PORTION
OF THE SRN SANGRES NR THE NM BORDER...POSSIBLY REACHING HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.  FOR NOW WL JUST SHOW STRONG WINDS IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.
WESTERLY WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY NR THE MTNS AND OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

...WINDY TO VERY WINDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG JET STREAM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WESTERLY H7 FLOW PROGGED BETWEEN 25-40 KTS...AND WITH GOOD
MIXING EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A
FEW POSSIBLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND
DAMAGING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY H7-H6 WINDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 50-65KTS...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING MT TOP
INVERSION AND REVERSE SHEAR THROUGH 12Z-15Z SUN...BEFORE WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
PLENTY OF TIME BEFORE THE EXPECTED ONSET...WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS STRONG WIND POTENTIAL BEFORE
ISSUING ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 70 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PASSING JET CORE ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TO OOZE INTO EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MODERATING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF THE COLDEST AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND HAVE STAYED AT OR BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHERE
SOUNDING DATA INDICATING STRONG INVERSIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE
DAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST WEAKENS TO AN OPEN
WAVE WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY SW TO W WINDS IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR
THE MTNS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 281128
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS FOR WINDS THEY HAVE BEEN RANGING FM SLY TO
WLY THE LAST FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP THEM SSW THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY AFTN THE RAP AND HRR INDICATE THEY MAY BRIEFLY BECOME WLY
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO MORE SSW BY LATE AFTN.  FOR
TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281128
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS FOR WINDS THEY HAVE BEEN RANGING FM SLY TO
WLY THE LAST FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP THEM SSW THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY AFTN THE RAP AND HRR INDICATE THEY MAY BRIEFLY BECOME WLY
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO MORE SSW BY LATE AFTN.  FOR
TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281128
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS FOR WINDS THEY HAVE BEEN RANGING FM SLY TO
WLY THE LAST FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP THEM SSW THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY AFTN THE RAP AND HRR INDICATE THEY MAY BRIEFLY BECOME WLY
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO MORE SSW BY LATE AFTN.  FOR
TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281128
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS FOR WINDS THEY HAVE BEEN RANGING FM SLY TO
WLY THE LAST FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP THEM SSW THRU THE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY AFTN THE RAP AND HRR INDICATE THEY MAY BRIEFLY BECOME WLY
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO MORE SSW BY LATE AFTN.  FOR
TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 281019
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

UNORGANIZED POCKETS OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF A JET STREAK ALOFT EMBEDDED IN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS CLOUDY THAN
YESTERDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT  TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
THE GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING ESE ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING WILL DROP
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH H3 JET SAGGING INTO THE
AREA. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS WITH HAHNS PEAK AND THE
MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS PRIMED TO PICK UP A QUICK 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE BAST 24 HOURS THROUGH THIS EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL ADJUST AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
DRY BACK OUT AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KICKING OUT A PIECE
OF ENERGY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SOME CONCERN WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE GFS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE EC LIFTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS
UTAH. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE
GET ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND EVEN WITH THE
TIMING COMING IN A BIT BETTER...THE DIFFERING TRACKS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER
ROLLING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE WYOMING AND COLORADO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281019
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

UNORGANIZED POCKETS OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF A JET STREAK ALOFT EMBEDDED IN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS CLOUDY THAN
YESTERDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT  TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
THE GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING ESE ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING WILL DROP
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH H3 JET SAGGING INTO THE
AREA. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS WITH HAHNS PEAK AND THE
MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS PRIMED TO PICK UP A QUICK 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE BAST 24 HOURS THROUGH THIS EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL ADJUST AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
DRY BACK OUT AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KICKING OUT A PIECE
OF ENERGY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SOME CONCERN WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE GFS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE EC LIFTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS
UTAH. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE
GET ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND EVEN WITH THE
TIMING COMING IN A BIT BETTER...THE DIFFERING TRACKS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER
ROLLING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE WYOMING AND COLORADO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 281019
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

UNORGANIZED POCKETS OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF A JET STREAK ALOFT EMBEDDED IN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS CLOUDY THAN
YESTERDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT  TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
THE GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING ESE ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING WILL DROP
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH H3 JET SAGGING INTO THE
AREA. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS WITH HAHNS PEAK AND THE
MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS PRIMED TO PICK UP A QUICK 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE BAST 24 HOURS THROUGH THIS EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL ADJUST AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
DRY BACK OUT AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KICKING OUT A PIECE
OF ENERGY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SOME CONCERN WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE GFS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE EC LIFTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS
UTAH. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE
GET ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND EVEN WITH THE
TIMING COMING IN A BIT BETTER...THE DIFFERING TRACKS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER
ROLLING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE WYOMING AND COLORADO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281019
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

UNORGANIZED POCKETS OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF A JET STREAK ALOFT EMBEDDED IN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS CLOUDY THAN
YESTERDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT  TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
THE GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING ESE ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING WILL DROP
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH H3 JET SAGGING INTO THE
AREA. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS WITH HAHNS PEAK AND THE
MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS PRIMED TO PICK UP A QUICK 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE BAST 24 HOURS THROUGH THIS EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL ADJUST AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
DRY BACK OUT AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KICKING OUT A PIECE
OF ENERGY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SOME CONCERN WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE GFS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE EC LIFTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS
UTAH. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE
GET ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND EVEN WITH THE
TIMING COMING IN A BIT BETTER...THE DIFFERING TRACKS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER
ROLLING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE WYOMING AND COLORADO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281019
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

UNORGANIZED POCKETS OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF A JET STREAK ALOFT EMBEDDED IN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS CLOUDY THAN
YESTERDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT  TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
THE GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING ESE ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING WILL DROP
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH H3 JET SAGGING INTO THE
AREA. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS WITH HAHNS PEAK AND THE
MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS PRIMED TO PICK UP A QUICK 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE BAST 24 HOURS THROUGH THIS EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL ADJUST AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
DRY BACK OUT AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KICKING OUT A PIECE
OF ENERGY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SOME CONCERN WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE GFS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE EC LIFTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS
UTAH. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE
GET ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND EVEN WITH THE
TIMING COMING IN A BIT BETTER...THE DIFFERING TRACKS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER
ROLLING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE WYOMING AND COLORADO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281019
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

UNORGANIZED POCKETS OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF A JET STREAK ALOFT EMBEDDED IN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS CLOUDY THAN
YESTERDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT  TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
THE GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING ESE ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING WILL DROP
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH H3 JET SAGGING INTO THE
AREA. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS WITH HAHNS PEAK AND THE
MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS PRIMED TO PICK UP A QUICK 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE BAST 24 HOURS THROUGH THIS EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL ADJUST AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
DRY BACK OUT AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KICKING OUT A PIECE
OF ENERGY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SOME CONCERN WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE GFS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE EC LIFTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS
UTAH. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE
GET ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND EVEN WITH THE
TIMING COMING IN A BIT BETTER...THE DIFFERING TRACKS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER
ROLLING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE WYOMING AND COLORADO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KPUB 280543
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE THREE TAF
SITES. THE MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTHENING W WINDS
ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MDT TB ALONG AND E OF THE CREST OF THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RAMPART RANGE TODAY. WINDS AT RIDGE TOP WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND TB COULD BE SVR AS MTN WAVE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AN EVEN STRONGER MT WAVE
EVENT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 280543
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE THREE TAF
SITES. THE MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTHENING W WINDS
ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MDT TB ALONG AND E OF THE CREST OF THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RAMPART RANGE TODAY. WINDS AT RIDGE TOP WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND TB COULD BE SVR AS MTN WAVE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AN EVEN STRONGER MT WAVE
EVENT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 280514
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1014 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 280514
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1014 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 280514
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1014 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 280514
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1014 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KBOU 280317
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID
AND CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS CO. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT KBJC...WEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 280317
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID
AND CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS CO. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT KBJC...WEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 280317
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID
AND CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS CO. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT KBJC...WEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 280317
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID
AND CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS CO. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT KBJC...WEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 272327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...BUT NO IMPACT ON AVIATION. SOME LIGHT MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...BUT NO IMPACT ON AVIATION. SOME LIGHT MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...BUT NO IMPACT ON AVIATION. SOME LIGHT MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...BUT NO IMPACT ON AVIATION. SOME LIGHT MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KBOU 272228
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
328 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE. WESTERLY WINDS AT KBJC AND KDEN WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AT KAPA AND KBJC. AT KBJC...WEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 272228
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
328 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE. WESTERLY WINDS AT KBJC AND KDEN WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AT KAPA AND KBJC. AT KBJC...WEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 272217 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD MISSING ABBREVIATION IN LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 272217 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD MISSING ABBREVIATION IN LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 272217 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD MISSING ABBREVIATION IN LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 272217 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD MISSING ABBREVIATION IN LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 272211
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 272211
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KPUB 272203
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST AS WELL ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 272203
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST AS WELL ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 272203
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST AS WELL ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 272203
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST AS WELL ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 271720
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE OVER
IDAHO AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
AROUND NOON TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY PLACES TODAY AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT. SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL
PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DRIVES
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN EURO HAS DROPPED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE PATTERN SHOWING MORE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING OVER US. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE WILL SEE
SOME IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS STILL IN QUESTION. MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH SOME MTN
TOP WINDS MAY REACH 40 MPH AT TIMES. ASIDE FROM THAT...FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 271720
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE OVER
IDAHO AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
AROUND NOON TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY PLACES TODAY AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT. SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL
PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DRIVES
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN EURO HAS DROPPED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE PATTERN SHOWING MORE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING OVER US. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE WILL SEE
SOME IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS STILL IN QUESTION. MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH SOME MTN
TOP WINDS MAY REACH 40 MPH AT TIMES. ASIDE FROM THAT...FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 271720
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE OVER
IDAHO AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
AROUND NOON TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY PLACES TODAY AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT. SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL
PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DRIVES
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN EURO HAS DROPPED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE PATTERN SHOWING MORE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING OVER US. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE WILL SEE
SOME IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS STILL IN QUESTION. MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH SOME MTN
TOP WINDS MAY REACH 40 MPH AT TIMES. ASIDE FROM THAT...FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 271720
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE OVER
IDAHO AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
AROUND NOON TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY PLACES TODAY AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT. SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL
PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DRIVES
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN EURO HAS DROPPED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE PATTERN SHOWING MORE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING OVER US. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE WILL SEE
SOME IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS STILL IN QUESTION. MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH SOME MTN
TOP WINDS MAY REACH 40 MPH AT TIMES. ASIDE FROM THAT...FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KBOU 271652
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
952 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MILD AND DRY DAY WILL PREVAIL UNDER A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED IN THE UPPER 50S WHERE THE WIND IS
BLOWING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. IN LOWER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. MAY
NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A FEW AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
WARM. APPEARS THE WAVES CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...SO THIS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES SOME TOO.

STILL LOOKS WINDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WHERE GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THERE WILL BE SOME WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO.  WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE IF SKIES WERE CLEAR HIGHS WOULD
LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
HOWEVER WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE HIGH CLOUD DECK CAN ALTER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME CASES.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 60S ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.
MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT TIMES.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CROSS MTN FLOW INCREASES
TO 60-65 KTS.  MTN WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON CURRENT DATA SO
NOT SURE HOW IF THEY WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE OR WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MODELS HAVE FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
...THEN JUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANYWAY...JET LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 75-100 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS PROGGED CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER ALL THE CWA FOR
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A BIT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE SET ON THE
CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HIGHLIGHT WORTHY. MOISTURE IS VERY SPARSE
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL. DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
DECENT WAVE CLOUD. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1.5-3.0 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SATURDAY`S ARE A
TAD...0-1.5 C...COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. BOTH DAY`S MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR DENVER. READINGS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT BRINGS IN
A COLD FRONT AND SOME UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
INSIGNIFICANT. THERE IS ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE
ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH... THE GFS IS ZONAL MOVING TO
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING ON THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS A BIT OF MEASURABLE QPF SUNDAY NIGHT LATE THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HAS NONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A TINY BIT INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS DRY. NOT GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKED WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS 5 TO 7 DAYS
AGO TOO. THE GFS WON THAT BATTLE. MAY GO WITH SOME MINOR ALPINE
POPS SOME OF THE TIME...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS COLORADO TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER AT KBJC...WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WINDS MOVE OFF THE
FOOTHILLS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 271650
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
950 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...AND TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST OBS DATA. DROPPED MAX TEMPS UP TO 8F RIGHT
ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY TO
LAMAR. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 271650
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
950 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...AND TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST OBS DATA. DROPPED MAX TEMPS UP TO 8F RIGHT
ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY TO
LAMAR. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271159
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271159
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271159
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 271159
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MAX TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WL BE VARIABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW
THICK THEY WL BE THRU THE DAY.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST THICKER
AND LONGER LASTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVR AND NR THE ERN MTNS TODAY.
THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WL HAMPER WARMING. ALSO...MIXING
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE LIMITED OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER
IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. TONIGHT
IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TEMPS NR THE ERN MTNS AND ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS WL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE DUE WRLY SFC WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL AND MILD TO WARM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW PLATTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH
COMPUTER MODELS THEN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

RECENT GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT A BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO LATER TUESDAY BEFORE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM
TUESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND DGEX
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MORE MOIST ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS).

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1040 MB+ SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY)
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH THE ECWMF SUGGESTING STRONGER
COOLING THAN THE GFS MODEL FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE DEPICTED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW GRADE
PRIMARILY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
COOLEST READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. FINALLY...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271045
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE OVER
IDAHO AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
AROUND NOON TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY PLACES TODAY AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT. SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL
PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DRIVES
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN EURO HAS DROPPED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE PATTERN SHOWING MORE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING OVER US. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE WILL SEE
SOME IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS STILL IN QUESTION. MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 40+ KTS NEAR
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 271045
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE OVER
IDAHO AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
AROUND NOON TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY PLACES TODAY AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT. SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL
PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DRIVES
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN EURO HAS DROPPED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE PATTERN SHOWING MORE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING OVER US. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE WILL SEE
SOME IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS STILL IN QUESTION. MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 40+ KTS NEAR
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 271025
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THERE WILL BE SOME WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO.  WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE IF SKIES WERE CLEAR HIGHS WOULD
LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
HOWEVER WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE HIGH CLOUD DECK CAN ALTER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME CASES.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 60S ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.
MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT TIMES.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CROSS MTN FLOW INCREASES
TO 60-65 KTS.  MTN WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON CURRENT DATA SO
NOT SURE HOW IF THEY WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE OR WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MODELS HAVE FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
...THEN JUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANYWAY...JET LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 75-100 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS PROGGED CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER ALL THE CWA FOR
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A BIT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE SET ON THE
CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HIGHLIGHT WORTHY. MOISTURE IS VERY SPARSE
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL. DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
DECENT WAVE CLOUD. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1.5-3.0 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SATURDAY`S ARE A
TAD...0-1.5 C...COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. BOTH DAY`S MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR DENVER. READINGS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT BRINGS IN
A COLD FRONT AND SOME UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
INSIGNIFICANT. THERE IS ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE
ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH... THE GFS IS ZONAL MOVING TO
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING ON THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS A BIT OF MEASURABLE QPF SUNDAY NIGHT LATE THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HAS NONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A TINY BIT INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS DRY. NOT GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKED WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS 5 TO 7 DAYS
AGO TOO. THE GFS WON THAT BATTLE. MAY GO WITH SOME MINOR ALPINE
POPS SOME OF THE TIME...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

OUTSIDE OF HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE SLY THRU MIDDAY BUT THEN BECOME
MORE SWLY IN THE 20Z-21Z TIME PERIOD.  BY EARLY EVENING THEY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SSW AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 271025
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THERE WILL BE SOME WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO.  WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE IF SKIES WERE CLEAR HIGHS WOULD
LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
HOWEVER WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE HIGH CLOUD DECK CAN ALTER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME CASES.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 60S ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.
MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT TIMES.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CROSS MTN FLOW INCREASES
TO 60-65 KTS.  MTN WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON CURRENT DATA SO
NOT SURE HOW IF THEY WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE OR WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MODELS HAVE FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
...THEN JUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANYWAY...JET LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 75-100 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS PROGGED CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER ALL THE CWA FOR
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A BIT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE SET ON THE
CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HIGHLIGHT WORTHY. MOISTURE IS VERY SPARSE
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL. DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
DECENT WAVE CLOUD. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1.5-3.0 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SATURDAY`S ARE A
TAD...0-1.5 C...COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. BOTH DAY`S MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR DENVER. READINGS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT BRINGS IN
A COLD FRONT AND SOME UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
INSIGNIFICANT. THERE IS ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE
ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH... THE GFS IS ZONAL MOVING TO
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING ON THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS A BIT OF MEASURABLE QPF SUNDAY NIGHT LATE THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HAS NONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A TINY BIT INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS DRY. NOT GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKED WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS 5 TO 7 DAYS
AGO TOO. THE GFS WON THAT BATTLE. MAY GO WITH SOME MINOR ALPINE
POPS SOME OF THE TIME...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

OUTSIDE OF HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE SLY THRU MIDDAY BUT THEN BECOME
MORE SWLY IN THE 20Z-21Z TIME PERIOD.  BY EARLY EVENING THEY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SSW AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 271025
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THERE WILL BE SOME WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO.  WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE IF SKIES WERE CLEAR HIGHS WOULD
LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
HOWEVER WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE HIGH CLOUD DECK CAN ALTER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME CASES.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 60S ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.
MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT TIMES.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CROSS MTN FLOW INCREASES
TO 60-65 KTS.  MTN WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON CURRENT DATA SO
NOT SURE HOW IF THEY WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE OR WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MODELS HAVE FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
...THEN JUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANYWAY...JET LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 75-100 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS PROGGED CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER ALL THE CWA FOR
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A BIT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE SET ON THE
CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HIGHLIGHT WORTHY. MOISTURE IS VERY SPARSE
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL. DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
DECENT WAVE CLOUD. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1.5-3.0 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SATURDAY`S ARE A
TAD...0-1.5 C...COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. BOTH DAY`S MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR DENVER. READINGS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT BRINGS IN
A COLD FRONT AND SOME UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
INSIGNIFICANT. THERE IS ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE
ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH... THE GFS IS ZONAL MOVING TO
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING ON THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS A BIT OF MEASURABLE QPF SUNDAY NIGHT LATE THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HAS NONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A TINY BIT INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS DRY. NOT GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKED WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS 5 TO 7 DAYS
AGO TOO. THE GFS WON THAT BATTLE. MAY GO WITH SOME MINOR ALPINE
POPS SOME OF THE TIME...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

OUTSIDE OF HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE SLY THRU MIDDAY BUT THEN BECOME
MORE SWLY IN THE 20Z-21Z TIME PERIOD.  BY EARLY EVENING THEY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SSW AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KPUB 270558
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1058 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR THU ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGE TOP WINDS OVER THE
RAMPARTS AND NORTHERN SANGRES WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FROM 12Z-18Z
THU...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF MDT TB GOING OVER THE LEE OF THE RANGES AS
MT WAVES PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT OVER THE ERN
RANGES WILL CONTINUE TO GET STRONGER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TB DEVELOPING BY THE WEEKEND. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 270523
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1023 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAM



000
FXUS65 KGJT 270523
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1023 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KPUB 270502
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1002 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR WED ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 270502
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1002 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR WED ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 270502 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1002 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR THU ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 270502 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1002 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER REVIEWING THE VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE HIGHS
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR THU ALONG WITH WIND AND
SKY FORECASTS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL FORECAST INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR KCOS
AND 50S FOR KPUB...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MOS
FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WAS 10-15 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THE WED
HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE SFC WINDS...IF THEY STAY LIGHT AND FROM THE S-SE THAN WE
WILL NOT MIX AND WILL END UP ON THE COOL SIDE. THE GFS PROGS MORE
WRLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS...AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM HINT AT THIS AS WELL. KPUB
CERTAINLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING THAN KCOS...WHERE THE
MORNING WAVE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL KEEP KCOS FROM REACHING ITS POTENTIAL. A BLANKET
REDUCTION OF 5-7 DEGREES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 270338
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EVENING FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUSH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES.
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE
OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY INCREASES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS GUSTS BELOW THE 75 MPH THRESHOLD FOR HIGH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MORE
DRAINAGE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 06Z OR SO. WILL SEE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WAVE CLOUD REMAINING OVER
THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO 25KT DEVELOPING AT BJC BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 270338
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EVENING FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUSH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES.
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE
OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY INCREASES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS GUSTS BELOW THE 75 MPH THRESHOLD FOR HIGH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MORE
DRAINAGE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 06Z OR SO. WILL SEE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WAVE CLOUD REMAINING OVER
THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO 25KT DEVELOPING AT BJC BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 270338
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EVENING FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUSH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES.
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE
OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY INCREASES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS GUSTS BELOW THE 75 MPH THRESHOLD FOR HIGH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MORE
DRAINAGE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 06Z OR SO. WILL SEE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WAVE CLOUD REMAINING OVER
THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO 25KT DEVELOPING AT BJC BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 270338
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
838 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EVENING FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUSH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES.
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE
OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS MOUNTAIN TOP
STABILITY INCREASES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS GUSTS BELOW THE 75 MPH THRESHOLD FOR HIGH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MORE
DRAINAGE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 06Z OR SO. WILL SEE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WAVE CLOUD REMAINING OVER
THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO 25KT DEVELOPING AT BJC BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262338
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 262338
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 262338
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 262338
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KPUB 262337
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
437 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 262337
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
437 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME MDT TB DUE TO MTN
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES
AND RAMPART RANGE. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 262211
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS. A
FEW LOWER CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE PEAKS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS UNTIL 01Z-03Z...BEFORE DRIER AIR BRINGS
CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THU.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 262211
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH MOIST LAYER CONTINUING TO THIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SNOW
HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD A FLURRY
OR TWO UP AROUND LEADVILLE UNTIL SUNSET...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AFTER 03Z. FARTHER EAST...WARM AIR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S FROM WEST OF CANON CITY UP TO SALIDA...WITH A FEW MID
TO UPPER 50S APPEARING AROUND WALSENBURG. OVER THE PLAINS...LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING HAVE HELD BACK MAX TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...WHERE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW WARM-UP.

OVERNIGHT...LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...ALLOWING WEAK WEST WINDS WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON TO THE PLAINS BY EARLY THU MORNING. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S.
MOUNTAINS AND MOST WESTERN VALLEYS WILL DROP TO SEASONABLY COLD
TEENS AND 20S.

THURSDAY...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING DAY IN STORE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 5-7C RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH PERHAPS A 70F READING OR TWO OCCURRING OVER WELL MIXED
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. EVEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEST
WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN HERE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH MILD AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY MOISTURE WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FOR NEAR ZERO POPS. GRIDS HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. GRIDS HAVE COLD FRONT STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS. IF FRONT IS FASTER...HIGHS COULD BE 10
TO 20F COOLER. BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...GFS AND EC HAVE A LEE TROUGH STARTING
TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING EASTWARD. WARMING WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL START
BRINING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOME
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER EAST...LATEST EC SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGHS ON THE PLAINS COULD BE
COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS. A
FEW LOWER CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE PEAKS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS UNTIL 01Z-03Z...BEFORE DRIER AIR BRINGS
CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THU.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 262205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
JUST AFTER 00Z AT KDEN AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 262205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
JUST AFTER 00Z AT KDEN AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 262205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
JUST AFTER 00Z AT KDEN AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 262205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
JUST AFTER 00Z AT KDEN AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 262205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
JUST AFTER 00Z AT KDEN AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 262205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES TOO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SMALL BAND
REFORMING THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS...SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. IF ANY SNOW FORMS...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS HAS KEPT THE COOLER
AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS PRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY IN
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FLUSH OUT THE
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LEAD TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THANKSGIVING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SO WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS MAY SLOW WARMING
SOME...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...A DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...

STARTING WITH FRIDAY A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG
WNW FLOW ALOFT. ACCORDING TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THERE IS A LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER AT MOUNTAIN
TOP SO IT WILL DIFFICULT TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SO HIGHER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...CHINOOK WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AID IN GETTING
AREAS CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
TRENDS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WOULD EITHER MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY OF
72 SET BACK IN 1901.

DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTING TO 70 MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY IS STILL LACKING SO WILL KEEP WINDS
ISOLATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 60-65 OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. THE MAIN FEATURE HOWEVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. MOISTURE STILL LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
LEFT POPS OUT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED...WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS WITH NO CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
JUST AFTER 00Z AT KDEN AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD



000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261908
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1208 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

W FLOW CONTINUES BUT SNOTELS AND WEBCAMS IMPLY A DECREASING TREND
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS DOWN THE CENTRAL DIVIDE. LATEST HRRR
ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW INTO THE
AFTERNOON . REMAINING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AT NOON AND THIS
LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT IS EASING UP WINDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER BANDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING BEFORE DWINDLING RAPIDLY AROUND NOONTIME.
CURRENT SATELLITE OVER THE ROCKIES INDICATES MANY POCKETS OF
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS BEING FUELED BY THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SPEC HUMIDITIES ARE STILL
QUITE HIGH STILL 3 K/JG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTING WINTER WX ADVISORIES AND THE
ZONE 4 WARNING TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ENDING TIME OF NOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST IMPACT AREA THIS MORNING VAIL PASS DUE TO A HIGH
TRAVEL DAY. DO EXPECT SNOW TO END ALONG I-70 BY NOON TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNEVENTFUL DAY AND GOOD FOR TRAVELING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING SLIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. WITH
LOWER VALLEYS LACKING SNOW COVER...MORNING INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK
...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS
CHALLENGED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED ONCE AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING PACIFIC LOW. THIS COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE
ABOVE MENTION PACIFIC SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP ANY POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN -SN WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE HIGHER
PEAKS FROM K3MW TO KMYP INTO THE AFTERNOON...OBSCURING MTNS AT
TIMES. HOWEVER...FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO NEAR 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. STRONGER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT MTN TOP OVER THE NRN MTNS (K3MW) THROUGH THU
MORNING. AT THE TAF SITES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261908
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1208 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

W FLOW CONTINUES BUT SNOTELS AND WEBCAMS IMPLY A DECREASING TREND
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS DOWN THE CENTRAL DIVIDE. LATEST HRRR
ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW INTO THE
AFTERNOON . REMAINING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AT NOON AND THIS
LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT IS EASING UP WINDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER BANDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING BEFORE DWINDLING RAPIDLY AROUND NOONTIME.
CURRENT SATELLITE OVER THE ROCKIES INDICATES MANY POCKETS OF
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS BEING FUELED BY THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SPEC HUMIDITIES ARE STILL
QUITE HIGH STILL 3 K/JG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTING WINTER WX ADVISORIES AND THE
ZONE 4 WARNING TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ENDING TIME OF NOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST IMPACT AREA THIS MORNING VAIL PASS DUE TO A HIGH
TRAVEL DAY. DO EXPECT SNOW TO END ALONG I-70 BY NOON TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNEVENTFUL DAY AND GOOD FOR TRAVELING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING SLIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. WITH
LOWER VALLEYS LACKING SNOW COVER...MORNING INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK
...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS
CHALLENGED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED ONCE AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING PACIFIC LOW. THIS COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE
ABOVE MENTION PACIFIC SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP ANY POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN -SN WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE HIGHER
PEAKS FROM K3MW TO KMYP INTO THE AFTERNOON...OBSCURING MTNS AT
TIMES. HOWEVER...FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO NEAR 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. STRONGER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT MTN TOP OVER THE NRN MTNS (K3MW) THROUGH THU
MORNING. AT THE TAF SITES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD



000
FXUS65 KPUB 261847
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1147 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

REMOVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED MOST LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SLOW TO CLEAR OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEP LOWER CLOUDS PINNED SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. STARTING TO SEE SOME THINNING IN LATEST VIS SAT PIC...SO
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC THAT CLOUDS CLEAR MOST OF THE COS METRO AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. DID ADJUST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGF LOWER FROM PUEBLO
INTO COLORADO SPRINGS AS LIMITED MIXING WILL HOLD READINGS BACK
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ONCE AGAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY.

AS OF 4 AM MST...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT NOTING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME
DATA SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE) WILL BE NOTED OVER SECTIONS
OF CHAFFEE AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO
19Z TODAY.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

OVERALL...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR LATE NOVEMBER
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY THERE WL BE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WITH
AN UPR RIDGE BEING OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY THU NIGHT AND REMAINS THAT
WAY THRU SAT.  THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPR TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO SUN AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS ON
SUN.  FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER SUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUN ACRS THE AREA.  SUN
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  THE GFS
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL CO
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA. WL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE.  THE ECMWF HAS A
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THEN INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SYSTEM SENDS A FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS A TROF
EXTENDING FROM WRN MT TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS BRINGS
INCREASING MSTR TO THE CONTDVD AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN.  FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME MTN PCPN AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AT KALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AT KCOS...PERSISTENT SE WIND KEEPING MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH 1710Z VIS SAT PIC SUGGESTS SOME DISSIPATION
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS IN
PLACE UNTIL 19Z WITH CLEARING TOWARD 20Z AS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
BECOME MORE S-SW. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON
ON INTO THE NIGHT.

KPUB...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE PEAKS NORTH OF
7BM UNTIL 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 261847
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1147 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

REMOVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED MOST LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SLOW TO CLEAR OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEP LOWER CLOUDS PINNED SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. STARTING TO SEE SOME THINNING IN LATEST VIS SAT PIC...SO
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC THAT CLOUDS CLEAR MOST OF THE COS METRO AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. DID ADJUST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGF LOWER FROM PUEBLO
INTO COLORADO SPRINGS AS LIMITED MIXING WILL HOLD READINGS BACK
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ONCE AGAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY.

AS OF 4 AM MST...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT NOTING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME
DATA SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE) WILL BE NOTED OVER SECTIONS
OF CHAFFEE AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO
19Z TODAY.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

OVERALL...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR LATE NOVEMBER
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY THERE WL BE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WITH
AN UPR RIDGE BEING OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY THU NIGHT AND REMAINS THAT
WAY THRU SAT.  THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPR TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO SUN AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS ON
SUN.  FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER SUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUN ACRS THE AREA.  SUN
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  THE GFS
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL CO
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA. WL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE.  THE ECMWF HAS A
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THEN INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SYSTEM SENDS A FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS A TROF
EXTENDING FROM WRN MT TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS BRINGS
INCREASING MSTR TO THE CONTDVD AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN.  FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME MTN PCPN AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AT KALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AT KCOS...PERSISTENT SE WIND KEEPING MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH 1710Z VIS SAT PIC SUGGESTS SOME DISSIPATION
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS IN
PLACE UNTIL 19Z WITH CLEARING TOWARD 20Z AS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
BECOME MORE S-SW. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON
ON INTO THE NIGHT.

KPUB...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE PEAKS NORTH OF
7BM UNTIL 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 261723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SLOW TO CLEAR OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEP LOWER CLOUDS PINNED SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. STARTING TO SEE SOME THINNING IN LATEST VIS SAT PIC...SO
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC THAT CLOUDS CLEAR MOST OF THE COS METRO AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. DID ADJUST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGF LOWER FROM PUEBLO
INTO COLORADO SPRINGS AS LIMITED MIXING WILL HOLD READINGS BACK
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ONCE AGAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY.

AS OF 4 AM MST...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT NOTING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME
DATA SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE) WILL BE NOTED OVER SECTIONS
OF CHAFFEE AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO
19Z TODAY.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

OVERALL...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR LATE NOVEMBER
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY THERE WL BE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WITH
AN UPR RIDGE BEING OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY THU NIGHT AND REMAINS THAT
WAY THRU SAT.  THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPR TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO SUN AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS ON
SUN.  FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER SUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUN ACRS THE AREA.  SUN
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  THE GFS
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL CO
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA. WL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE.  THE ECMWF HAS A
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THEN INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SYSTEM SENDS A FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS A TROF
EXTENDING FROM WRN MT TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS BRINGS
INCREASING MSTR TO THE CONTDVD AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN.  FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME MTN PCPN AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AT KALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AT KCOS...PERSISTENT SE WIND KEEPING MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH 1710Z VIS SAT PIC SUGGESTS SOME DISSIPATION
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS IN
PLACE UNTIL 19Z WITH CLEARING TOWARD 20Z AS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
BECOME MORE S-SW. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON
ON INTO THE NIGHT.

KPUB...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE PEAKS NORTH OF
7BM UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 261708
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1008 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

W FLOW CONTINUES BUT SNOTELS AND WEBCAMS IMPLY A DECREASING TREND
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS DOWN THE CENTRAL DIVIDE. LATEST HRRR
ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW INTO THE
AFTERNOON . REMAINING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AT NOON AND THIS
LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT IS EASING UP WINDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER BANDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING BEFORE DWINDLING RAPIDLY AROUND NOONTIME.
CURRENT SATELLITE OVER THE ROCKIES INDICATES MANY POCKETS OF
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS BEING FUELED BY THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SPEC HUMIDITIES ARE STILL
QUITE HIGH STILL 3 K/JG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTING WINTER WX ADVISORIES AND THE
ZONE 4 WARNING TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ENDING TIME OF NOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST IMPACT AREA THIS MORNING VAIL PASS DUE TO A HIGH
TRAVEL DAY. DO EXPECT SNOW TO END ALONG I-70 BY NOON TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNEVENTFUL DAY AND GOOD FOR TRAVELING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING SLIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. WITH
LOWER VALLEYS LACKING SNOW COVER...MORNING INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK
...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS
CHALLENGED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED ONCE AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING PACIFIC LOW. THIS COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE
ABOVE MENTION PACIFIC SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP ANY POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN -SN WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE HIGHER
PEAKS FROM K3MW TO KMYP INTO THE AFTERNOON...OBSCURING MTNS AT
TIMES. HOWEVER...FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO NEAR 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. STRONGER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT MTN TOP OVER THE NRN MTNS (K3MW) THROUGH THU
MORNING. AT THE TAF SITES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 261623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

RADAR SHOWING A BAND SNOW STILL HANGING ON OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. RAISED POPS FOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. INCREASED
WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 285 ACROSS PARK COUNTY FOR TODAY. OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING GUSTS T0 60 MPH HERE...THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THESE STRONG
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. INCREASED THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PLAN ON LETTING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON. WEB
CAMERAS JUST SHOWING LIGHT SNOW IN PLACES. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS
ARE STARTING IMPROVE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THOUGH MANY ROADS ARE
STILL SNOW COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LAPSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.  MEANWHILE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FT THUS WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU NOON.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NERN CO REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL BANDED PCPN THRU
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS ENE OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE. WEAK UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS WELL THRU MID
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SHOULD PCPN CHANCES END OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR
HIGHS THERE COULD BE QUITE A RANGE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WHILE FURTHER NE OVER THE PLAINS HIGHS
STAY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN IN THE MTNS THIS EVENING IT
SHOULD BE DRY.  A MTN WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-MTN
FLOW IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  THUS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
MTNS AND FOOTHILL AREAS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AT MOUNTAIN
TOP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
EXPECT MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BUT
AGAIN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS FLIRTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS IF WE GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE EUROPEAN HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE THE DENVER AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW FREE
TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF IN THE DENVER
AREA...AND EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA BY
18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY AND THEN TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER
00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 261623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

RADAR SHOWING A BAND SNOW STILL HANGING ON OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. RAISED POPS FOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. INCREASED
WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 285 ACROSS PARK COUNTY FOR TODAY. OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING GUSTS T0 60 MPH HERE...THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THESE STRONG
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. INCREASED THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PLAN ON LETTING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON. WEB
CAMERAS JUST SHOWING LIGHT SNOW IN PLACES. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS
ARE STARTING IMPROVE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THOUGH MANY ROADS ARE
STILL SNOW COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LAPSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.  MEANWHILE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FT THUS WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU NOON.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NERN CO REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL BANDED PCPN THRU
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS ENE OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE. WEAK UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS WELL THRU MID
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SHOULD PCPN CHANCES END OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR
HIGHS THERE COULD BE QUITE A RANGE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WHILE FURTHER NE OVER THE PLAINS HIGHS
STAY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN IN THE MTNS THIS EVENING IT
SHOULD BE DRY.  A MTN WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-MTN
FLOW IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  THUS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
MTNS AND FOOTHILL AREAS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AT MOUNTAIN
TOP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
EXPECT MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BUT
AGAIN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS FLIRTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS IF WE GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE EUROPEAN HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE THE DENVER AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW FREE
TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF IN THE DENVER
AREA...AND EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA BY
18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY AND THEN TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER
00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 261623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

RADAR SHOWING A BAND SNOW STILL HANGING ON OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. RAISED POPS FOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. INCREASED
WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 285 ACROSS PARK COUNTY FOR TODAY. OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING GUSTS T0 60 MPH HERE...THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THESE STRONG
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. INCREASED THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PLAN ON LETTING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON. WEB
CAMERAS JUST SHOWING LIGHT SNOW IN PLACES. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS
ARE STARTING IMPROVE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THOUGH MANY ROADS ARE
STILL SNOW COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LAPSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.  MEANWHILE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FT THUS WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU NOON.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NERN CO REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL BANDED PCPN THRU
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS ENE OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE. WEAK UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS WELL THRU MID
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SHOULD PCPN CHANCES END OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR
HIGHS THERE COULD BE QUITE A RANGE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WHILE FURTHER NE OVER THE PLAINS HIGHS
STAY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN IN THE MTNS THIS EVENING IT
SHOULD BE DRY.  A MTN WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-MTN
FLOW IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  THUS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
MTNS AND FOOTHILL AREAS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AT MOUNTAIN
TOP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
EXPECT MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BUT
AGAIN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS FLIRTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS IF WE GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE EUROPEAN HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE THE DENVER AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW FREE
TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF IN THE DENVER
AREA...AND EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA BY
18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY AND THEN TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER
00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 261623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

RADAR SHOWING A BAND SNOW STILL HANGING ON OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. RAISED POPS FOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. INCREASED
WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 285 ACROSS PARK COUNTY FOR TODAY. OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING GUSTS T0 60 MPH HERE...THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THESE STRONG
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. INCREASED THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PLAN ON LETTING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON. WEB
CAMERAS JUST SHOWING LIGHT SNOW IN PLACES. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS
ARE STARTING IMPROVE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THOUGH MANY ROADS ARE
STILL SNOW COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LAPSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.  MEANWHILE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FT THUS WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU NOON.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NERN CO REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL BANDED PCPN THRU
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS ENE OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE. WEAK UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS WELL THRU MID
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SHOULD PCPN CHANCES END OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR
HIGHS THERE COULD BE QUITE A RANGE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WHILE FURTHER NE OVER THE PLAINS HIGHS
STAY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN IN THE MTNS THIS EVENING IT
SHOULD BE DRY.  A MTN WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-MTN
FLOW IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  THUS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
MTNS AND FOOTHILL AREAS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AT MOUNTAIN
TOP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
EXPECT MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BUT
AGAIN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS FLIRTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS IF WE GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE EUROPEAN HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE THE DENVER AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW FREE
TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF IN THE DENVER
AREA...AND EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA BY
18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY AND THEN TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER
00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...MEIER



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