Home > Products > State Listing > Colorado Data
Latest:
 AFDPUB |  AFDGJT |  AFDBOU |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPUB 011358 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER AIR MASS WILL COVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT...ELIMINATING THE CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. EASTERN PLAINS WILL
SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WITH
SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAX TEMPS TODAY RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANY TSRA
LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011358 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER AIR MASS WILL COVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT...ELIMINATING THE CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. EASTERN PLAINS WILL
SEE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WITH
SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAX TEMPS TODAY RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANY TSRA
LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 011015
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
415 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL ENJOY JUST ABOUT THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS IN A MONTH AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KGJT
SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.48 INCHES. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
AND WILL CONTINUE FALLING TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SPEED. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL PUSH WEST INTO NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY...SHUTTING
OFF MONSOON MOISTURE. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS
CAPE BEING CLOSE TO NIL. TODAY WILL INITIATE AN NICE WARMING
TREND.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND THE
JET STRAYS OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE
SKIES ON THE CLEAR SIDE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE NAM IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY AS A STRONG EML SETS UP. MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THIS
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO RETURN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. PROFILES SUGGEST LITTLE RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS NEAR VIRGA. THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE WEST LEADS TO
TO BACKING WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LITTLE HOPE FOR RAINFALL WITHOUT A
MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARNING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND 90S OVER
THE WESTERN DESERT VALLEYS TO THE 70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL HAVE RECEDED BACK TO
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY THE FIRST HINT OF A
RETURN OF MONSOON FLOW APPEARS AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND
AND MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE PROJECTED MOVING NORTH OVER
EASTERN AZ. A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL ACT TO BEND THE MONSOONAL PLUME TO THE NE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TENDENCY IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF
AND THE CANADIAN...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL
PLUME OVER THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED THE HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY...WITH A BIT OF FOCUS EAST OF THE LINE FROM RANGELY TO
GRAND JUNCTION THE BLANDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011015
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
415 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL ENJOY JUST ABOUT THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS IN A MONTH AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KGJT
SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.48 INCHES. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
AND WILL CONTINUE FALLING TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SPEED. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL PUSH WEST INTO NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY...SHUTTING
OFF MONSOON MOISTURE. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS
CAPE BEING CLOSE TO NIL. TODAY WILL INITIATE AN NICE WARMING
TREND.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND THE
JET STRAYS OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE
SKIES ON THE CLEAR SIDE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE NAM IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY AS A STRONG EML SETS UP. MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THIS
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO RETURN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. PROFILES SUGGEST LITTLE RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS NEAR VIRGA. THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE WEST LEADS TO
TO BACKING WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LITTLE HOPE FOR RAINFALL WITHOUT A
MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARNING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND 90S OVER
THE WESTERN DESERT VALLEYS TO THE 70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL HAVE RECEDED BACK TO
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY THE FIRST HINT OF A
RETURN OF MONSOON FLOW APPEARS AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND
AND MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE PROJECTED MOVING NORTH OVER
EASTERN AZ. A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL ACT TO BEND THE MONSOONAL PLUME TO THE NE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TENDENCY IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF
AND THE CANADIAN...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL
PLUME OVER THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED THE HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY...WITH A BIT OF FOCUS EAST OF THE LINE FROM RANGELY TO
GRAND JUNCTION THE BLANDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011002
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
402 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WED...THEN MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK....

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...

GENERALLY DRY AND HOT (ESPECIALLY WED) DURING THESE FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TUE AND THU WILL BE IN THE U80S MOST PLAINS...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S ON WED (A 100F READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IT WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS FAR SE
CO AS A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION WED AND THU.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY QUITE A BIT. THIS FCST I BELIEVE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ACTIVE THE SUBTROPICS WILL GET AS THE MOISTURE
IS FCST TO COME UP VIA A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE FCST
TO DEVELOP IN THE GOLF OF MEXICO AND FAR E PACIFIC. IF THESE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS PER GUIDANCE SUGGEST...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND HPC QPF EXTENDED PROGS SHOW IT GETTING WETTER OVER
THE AREA. BASED ON THIS...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND COOLED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW HOW WET IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 010905
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SUDDENLY IT IS SEPTEMBER AND WE HAVE CLASSIC SEPTEMBER WEATHER
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR AT LOW LEVELS
TODAY COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION TODAY. WE SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS...BUT EXPECT THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT. EVEN THERE SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY A STRETCH. 700 MB WINDS
FROM THE WEST AT 20-25 KNOTS WILL MIX INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FIRST DRY AND WINDY DAY IN
A WHILE...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER IS ONLY RATED MODERATE THANKS TO
REGULAR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER AND HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
BE VERY LOW...JUST AROUND 20 PERCENT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST...TRIMMING BACK PLAINS
POPS A LITTLE MORE AND PUTTING IN A BIT LARGER DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF 30S AND MAYBE A FEW 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODELS HAVE FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT
IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT HIGHER IN SPEED WITH A WEAK TROUGH
TO MOVE IN...MAINLY TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER RIDGE IS QUITE FLAT
AND ITS CENTER IS WELL SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE DOWNWARD IN NATURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK UPWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LOOK TO BE A MIX BETWEEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS AND
DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
MODELS BRING DOWN A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE IS PRETTY SPARSE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.20 TO 0.90 INCH WEST TO
EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VALUES RANGE FROM 0.30 TO 0.60 INCH FORM WEST TO EAST. DEW POINTS
RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO THE 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS STILL SHOW DECENT CAPE OVER THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY...
THEN VERY LITTLE FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 3-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S ARE UP ANOTHER
2-3 C. FOR THE LATER DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST TO EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR COLORADO. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY DRIES OUT
A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010905
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

SUDDENLY IT IS SEPTEMBER AND WE HAVE CLASSIC SEPTEMBER WEATHER
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR AT LOW LEVELS
TODAY COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION TODAY. WE SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS...BUT EXPECT THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT. EVEN THERE SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY A STRETCH. 700 MB WINDS
FROM THE WEST AT 20-25 KNOTS WILL MIX INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FIRST DRY AND WINDY DAY IN
A WHILE...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER IS ONLY RATED MODERATE THANKS TO
REGULAR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER AND HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
BE VERY LOW...JUST AROUND 20 PERCENT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST...TRIMMING BACK PLAINS
POPS A LITTLE MORE AND PUTTING IN A BIT LARGER DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF 30S AND MAYBE A FEW 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODELS HAVE FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT
IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT HIGHER IN SPEED WITH A WEAK TROUGH
TO MOVE IN...MAINLY TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER RIDGE IS QUITE FLAT
AND ITS CENTER IS WELL SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE DOWNWARD IN NATURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK UPWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS LOOK TO BE A MIX BETWEEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS AND
DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
MODELS BRING DOWN A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE IS PRETTY SPARSE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.20 TO 0.90 INCH WEST TO
EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VALUES RANGE FROM 0.30 TO 0.60 INCH FORM WEST TO EAST. DEW POINTS
RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO THE 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS STILL SHOW DECENT CAPE OVER THE PLAINS LATE DAY TUESDAY...
THEN VERY LITTLE FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 3-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S ARE UP ANOTHER
2-3 C. FOR THE LATER DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST TO EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR COLORADO. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY DRIES OUT
A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RADAR INDICATES
A DOWNWARD TREND IN ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RADAR INDICATES
A DOWNWARD TREND IN ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010459
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010459
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010302
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
902 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RADAR INDICATES
A DOWNWARD TREND IN ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010302
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
902 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RADAR INDICATES
A DOWNWARD TREND IN ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010213
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
813 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO WITH MODEST QG ASCENT NOTED IN SHORT RANGE MODELS. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WELD COUNTY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. CYS RADAR VAD WINDS SHOWING 55KT AT 5000FT AGL
SO WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THIS STRONG FLOW
OFF THE DECK. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
SWEEP IN BEHIND TROF AXIS. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FOR MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH A DRY DAY IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION WOULD
BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS MODELS HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

OVERALL TREND IN THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS GOOD. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. MDLS MAINTAIN A
GOOD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO BOTH DAYS...WITH THE AMS MUCH
DRIER OVER THE CWFA. NOT THUNDERSTORM EITHER DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING 90 ON WEDNESDAY. THE TREND FOR
COOLER AND WETTER WILL KICK IN BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FM WLY TO SWLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN THE MID LEVELS...FLOW ALOFT WILL
START TO TAP INTO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN CO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE EVEN
COOLER THAN THOSE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. IN ANY
EVENT...ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A CHC OR SLGT
CHC OF TSTMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT NLY BUT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND STAY MOSTLY SLY OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KGJT 312300
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
500 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COOL FRONT HAS SETTLED NEAR THE 1-70 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNSET. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH MAY GUST TO NEAR THE 50 MPH MARK
THROUGH 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ANY CIGS AOA 9KFT
AGL. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE HOWEVER MAY
LEAD TO SOME INTERRUPTION OF FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND LIMIT RUNWAY
LANDING AND TAKEOFF OPTIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 312300
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
500 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COOL FRONT HAS SETTLED NEAR THE 1-70 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNSET. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH MAY GUST TO NEAR THE 50 MPH MARK
THROUGH 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ANY CIGS AOA 9KFT
AGL. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE HOWEVER MAY
LEAD TO SOME INTERRUPTION OF FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND LIMIT RUNWAY
LANDING AND TAKEOFF OPTIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 312126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 312126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
225 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEFT VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AT KEGE AND KASE FOR SHRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA PRODUCTION ARE MOVING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WIND.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
KICK UP WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 312025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
225 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEFT VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AT KEGE AND KASE FOR SHRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA PRODUCTION ARE MOVING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WIND.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
KICK UP WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 312001
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
201 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO WITH MODEST QG ASCENT NOTED IN SHORT RANGE MODELS. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WELD COUNTY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. CYS RADAR VAD WINDS SHOWING 55KT AT 5000FT AGL
SO WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THIS STRONG FLOW
OFF THE DECK. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
SWEEP IN BEHIND TROF AXIS. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FOR MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH A DRY DAY IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION WOULD
BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS MODELS HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

OVERALL TREND IN THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS GOOD. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. MDLS MAINTAIN A
GOOD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO BOTH DAYS...WITH THE AMS MUCH
DRIER OVER THE CWFA. NOT THUNDERSTORM EITHER DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING 90 ON WEDNESDAY. THE TREND FOR
COOLER AND WETTER WILL KICK IN BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FM WLY TO SWLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN THE MID LEVELS...FLOW ALOFT WILL
START TO TAP INTO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN CO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE EVEN
COOLER THAN THOSE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. IN ANY
EVENT...ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A CHC OR SLGT
CHC OF TSTMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EVOLVING AND STRONGER CONVECTION HAS STAYED
NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH FROM THE STORMS IN WELD COUNTY WHICH
WILL GET TO KDEN BETWEEN 2030-21Z AS WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OVER WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY WHICH COULD ALSO EFFECT THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 21-23Z. WILL MONITOR IN CASE TS IS NEEDED BACK IN THE TAF.
FOR NOW STORM EFFECTS COVERED FOR WINDS IN TEMPO GROUP. GOOD
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING. NO STORMS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 312001
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
201 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO WITH MODEST QG ASCENT NOTED IN SHORT RANGE MODELS. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WELD COUNTY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. CYS RADAR VAD WINDS SHOWING 55KT AT 5000FT AGL
SO WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THIS STRONG FLOW
OFF THE DECK. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
SWEEP IN BEHIND TROF AXIS. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FOR MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH A DRY DAY IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION WOULD
BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS MODELS HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

OVERALL TREND IN THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS GOOD. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. MDLS MAINTAIN A
GOOD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO BOTH DAYS...WITH THE AMS MUCH
DRIER OVER THE CWFA. NOT THUNDERSTORM EITHER DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING 90 ON WEDNESDAY. THE TREND FOR
COOLER AND WETTER WILL KICK IN BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FM WLY TO SWLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN THE MID LEVELS...FLOW ALOFT WILL
START TO TAP INTO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN CO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE EVEN
COOLER THAN THOSE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. IN ANY
EVENT...ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A CHC OR SLGT
CHC OF TSTMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EVOLVING AND STRONGER CONVECTION HAS STAYED
NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH FROM THE STORMS IN WELD COUNTY WHICH
WILL GET TO KDEN BETWEEN 2030-21Z AS WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OVER WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY WHICH COULD ALSO EFFECT THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 21-23Z. WILL MONITOR IN CASE TS IS NEEDED BACK IN THE TAF.
FOR NOW STORM EFFECTS COVERED FOR WINDS IN TEMPO GROUP. GOOD
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING. NO STORMS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311737 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER COLORADO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY JUST
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS
NOSING OVER NORTHERN CO. ALL OF THESE FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO THE
ONGOING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NRN CO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
LIMITED MAINLY TO NRN COLORADO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEFT VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AT KEGE AND KASE FOR SHRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA PRODUCTION ARE MOVING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WIND.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
KICK UP WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 311737 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER COLORADO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY JUST
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS
NOSING OVER NORTHERN CO. ALL OF THESE FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO THE
ONGOING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NRN CO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
LIMITED MAINLY TO NRN COLORADO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEFT VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AT KEGE AND KASE FOR SHRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA PRODUCTION ARE MOVING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WIND.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
KICK UP WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 311737 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER COLORADO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY JUST
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS
NOSING OVER NORTHERN CO. ALL OF THESE FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO THE
ONGOING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NRN CO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
LIMITED MAINLY TO NRN COLORADO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEFT VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AT KEGE AND KASE FOR SHRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA PRODUCTION ARE MOVING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WIND.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
KICK UP WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 311737 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER COLORADO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY JUST
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS
NOSING OVER NORTHERN CO. ALL OF THESE FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO THE
ONGOING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NRN CO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
LIMITED MAINLY TO NRN COLORADO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEFT VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AT KEGE AND KASE FOR SHRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA PRODUCTION ARE MOVING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WIND.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
KICK UP WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 311708
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS PROJECTED TO BE
PUSHING INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
GENERATING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 311708
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS PROJECTED TO BE
PUSHING INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
GENERATING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 311708
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS PROJECTED TO BE
PUSHING INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
GENERATING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 311708
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE IS PROJECTED TO BE
PUSHING INTO AND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
GENERATING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOU 311544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST RAP SHOWING
MODEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WITH THE TROF AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST
WHILE MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MAIN CHANGE TO ZONES WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN MODERATE ASCENT WITH JET
STREAK AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS.  WINDS
TO 70 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50KT AT 500MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...WE HAVE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER AS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE MORE DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT WITH LESSER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE HIGHER WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREAT. RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE TROF EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 311544
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST RAP SHOWING
MODEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WITH THE TROF AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST
WHILE MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MAIN CHANGE TO ZONES WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN MODERATE ASCENT WITH JET
STREAK AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS.  WINDS
TO 70 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50KT AT 500MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...WE HAVE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER AS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE MORE DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT WITH LESSER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE HIGHER WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREAT. RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE TROF EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311544 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER COLORADO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY JUST
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS
NOSING OVER NORTHERN CO. ALL OF THESE FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO THE
ONGOING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NRN CO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
LIMITED MAINLY TO NRN COLORADO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH
KEGE AND KASE HAVE ABOUT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCE OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 311034
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH
KEGE AND KASE HAVE ABOUT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCE OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 311034
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH
KEGE AND KASE HAVE ABOUT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCE OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 311028
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO WEST WINDS AROUND 14Z...THEN NORTH WINDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 311028
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO WEST WINDS AROUND 14Z...THEN NORTH WINDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 311028
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO WEST WINDS AROUND 14Z...THEN NORTH WINDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 311028
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO WEST WINDS AROUND 14Z...THEN NORTH WINDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KPUB 311019
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...CLOSER
TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. BY EARLY
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH MAY
BRING ISOLATED TSRA TO AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER UNTIL 06Z.
MOST STORMS TODAY WILL BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE TO0 LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 311019
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...CLOSER
TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. BY EARLY
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH MAY
BRING ISOLATED TSRA TO AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER UNTIL 06Z.
MOST STORMS TODAY WILL BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE TO0 LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 310512
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...AND A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
OVER EL PASO COUNTY...EAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING CROWLEY AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED AT EACH SITE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE THREATS TO KALS AND KCOS
WILL BE LOW...WITH NO THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT KPUB.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 310512
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...AND A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
OVER EL PASO COUNTY...EAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING CROWLEY AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED AT EACH SITE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE THREATS TO KALS AND KCOS
WILL BE LOW...WITH NO THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT KPUB.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 310433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z...SO IMPACTS ON TAF
SITES UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AT AREA TAF SITES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL. THERE IS AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT KRIL...KEGE...
AND KASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG AND
UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 03Z/MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 310433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z...SO IMPACTS ON TAF
SITES UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AT AREA TAF SITES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL. THERE IS AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT KRIL...KEGE...
AND KASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG AND
UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 03Z/MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 310433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z...SO IMPACTS ON TAF
SITES UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AT AREA TAF SITES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL. THERE IS AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT KRIL...KEGE...
AND KASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG AND
UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 03Z/MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 310433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z...SO IMPACTS ON TAF
SITES UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AT AREA TAF SITES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL. THERE IS AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT KRIL...KEGE...
AND KASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG AND
UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 03Z/MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KBOU 310253 AAD
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING ACROSS NERN
CO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
GUSTY WNW WINDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY 04Z WITH
WINDS DECREASING AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE
BY 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 310253 AAD
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING ACROSS NERN
CO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
GUSTY WNW WINDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY 04Z WITH
WINDS DECREASING AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE
BY 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 310253 AAD
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING ACROSS NERN
CO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
GUSTY WNW WINDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY 04Z WITH
WINDS DECREASING AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE
BY 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 310253 AAD
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING ACROSS NERN
CO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
GUSTY WNW WINDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY 04Z WITH
WINDS DECREASING AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE
BY 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KPUB 310253
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...AND A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
OVER EL PASO COUNTY...EAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING CROWLEY AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH MOISTURE
LACKING...MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.  BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS AT KCOS...BUT WON`T
CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO
LOW.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TO THE PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS COULD BE
THE PRIME FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGIONS LATE IN THE DAY.  FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE
HIGHER AND DRIER VARIETY...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT FOR STORMS TO0 LOW TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 310253
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...AND A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
OVER EL PASO COUNTY...EAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING CROWLEY AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH MOISTURE
LACKING...MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.  BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS AT KCOS...BUT WON`T
CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO
LOW.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TO THE PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS COULD BE
THE PRIME FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGIONS LATE IN THE DAY.  FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE
HIGHER AND DRIER VARIETY...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT FOR STORMS TO0 LOW TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 503 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS EAST OF KDWX TO KDRO LINE THROUGH 03Z.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. KASE AND KRIL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING SHOWERS...THOUGH ITS UNLIKELY THAT THE FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL DROP BELOW VFR. EXPECT DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
ALL BUT THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z TO
18Z/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TO 18Z. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 503 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS EAST OF KDWX TO KDRO LINE THROUGH 03Z.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. KASE AND KRIL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING SHOWERS...THOUGH ITS UNLIKELY THAT THE FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL DROP BELOW VFR. EXPECT DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
ALL BUT THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z TO
18Z/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TO 18Z. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KPUB 302123
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
323 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH MOISTURE
LACKING...MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.  BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS AT KCOS...BUT WON`T
CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO
LOW.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TO THE PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS COULD BE
THE PRIME FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGIONS LATE IN THE DAY.  FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE
HIGHER AND DRIER VARIETY...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT FOR STORMS TO0 LOW TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOU 302036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
236 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXPECT MAIN IMPACT WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS BUT NOT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE. EXPECT
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAIN TROF MOVES OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE TROF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS LATER
SUNDAY AM OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 302036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
236 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXPECT MAIN IMPACT WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS BUT NOT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE. EXPECT
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAIN TROF MOVES OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE TROF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS LATER
SUNDAY AM OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 302036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
236 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXPECT MAIN IMPACT WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS BUT NOT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE. EXPECT
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAIN TROF MOVES OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE TROF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS LATER
SUNDAY AM OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 302036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
236 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CO
AND THIS WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD.  EXPECT MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN. AS THE SHOWERS PUSH EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...STORMS MAY GET A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE MOISTURE BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AS QG ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
90KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALL NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TIME WITH THE STORMS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE STILL A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE SO NOTHING TOO STRONG.  SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF SWEEPS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. ALSO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS PLACE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ZONAL WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PINCHING OFF THE
FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...AND A TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TREND FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST CO ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL
ALLOW FOR SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXPECT MAIN IMPACT WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS BUT NOT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE. EXPECT
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAIN TROF MOVES OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE TROF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS LATER
SUNDAY AM OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302029
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
229 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
CNY TO MTJ LINE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...WINDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302029
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
229 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
CNY TO MTJ LINE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...WINDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 301741 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AS A WEAK RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK JET WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHLINE...ALONG WITH A FEW SMALL VORT MAXES. THESE WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.60 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADD SOME
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PREDICTED PWAT RISING ABOVE 0.70
INCHES AND CAPE IN THE 300 TO 600 JOULE RANGE. SO WITH A LITTLE
DYNAMIC LIFT...A BIT OF SPEED SHEAR ALOFT...AND THE MID LEVELS
MOISTENING A LITTLE AS WELL...BELIEVE ISOLD TO LOW-END SCATTERED
POPS ARE STILL A GOOD BET FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST POPS
FROM THE BOOKCLIFFS NORTH. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER
5 DEGREES OR SO ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LARGE OPEN TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON IT/S WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC JET WILL BE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND HELP PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACCORDING TO PWATS...PUSHING BACK TO NEAR 0.75 OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE AUGUST. HOWEVER PROFILES MOST OF THIS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE
MID AN UPPER LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A SHARPER CYCLONIC CURVE TO THE JET OVER
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOLUTION IS TAMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THE GFS/EURO KEEP A BROADER CURVE TO THE JET AND THE
BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH. IMPLICATIONS IN THE NAM SOLUTION
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE OTHER SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MORE WIND THAN RAIN LIKELY IN NORTHERN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND
ENDED PRECIPITATION QUICKER AND KEPT THE HIGHER POPS WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE NAM
ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A FRONT AND COOLER AIR INTO OUR CENTRAL
CWA. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE EURO KEEP THE FRONT WELL TO THE
NORTH. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE STILL USED FOR HIGHS AS THERE IS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEST
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE DRIER
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEAK CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS ZONAL TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REFORMS TO THE WEST.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST MONDAY WITH MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER AZ
AND NM...USHERING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS ALOFT TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
STALLS OVER THE PACNW AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
CNY TO MTJ LINE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...WINDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301741 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AS A WEAK RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK JET WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHLINE...ALONG WITH A FEW SMALL VORT MAXES. THESE WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.60 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADD SOME
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PREDICTED PWAT RISING ABOVE 0.70
INCHES AND CAPE IN THE 300 TO 600 JOULE RANGE. SO WITH A LITTLE
DYNAMIC LIFT...A BIT OF SPEED SHEAR ALOFT...AND THE MID LEVELS
MOISTENING A LITTLE AS WELL...BELIEVE ISOLD TO LOW-END SCATTERED
POPS ARE STILL A GOOD BET FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST POPS
FROM THE BOOKCLIFFS NORTH. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER
5 DEGREES OR SO ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LARGE OPEN TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON IT/S WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC JET WILL BE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND HELP PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACCORDING TO PWATS...PUSHING BACK TO NEAR 0.75 OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE AUGUST. HOWEVER PROFILES MOST OF THIS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE
MID AN UPPER LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A SHARPER CYCLONIC CURVE TO THE JET OVER
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOLUTION IS TAMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THE GFS/EURO KEEP A BROADER CURVE TO THE JET AND THE
BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH. IMPLICATIONS IN THE NAM SOLUTION
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE OTHER SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MORE WIND THAN RAIN LIKELY IN NORTHERN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND
ENDED PRECIPITATION QUICKER AND KEPT THE HIGHER POPS WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE NAM
ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A FRONT AND COOLER AIR INTO OUR CENTRAL
CWA. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE EURO KEEP THE FRONT WELL TO THE
NORTH. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE STILL USED FOR HIGHS AS THERE IS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEST
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE DRIER
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEAK CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS ZONAL TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REFORMS TO THE WEST.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST MONDAY WITH MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER AZ
AND NM...USHERING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS ALOFT TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
STALLS OVER THE PACNW AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
CNY TO MTJ LINE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...WINDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301741 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AS A WEAK RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK JET WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHLINE...ALONG WITH A FEW SMALL VORT MAXES. THESE WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.60 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADD SOME
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PREDICTED PWAT RISING ABOVE 0.70
INCHES AND CAPE IN THE 300 TO 600 JOULE RANGE. SO WITH A LITTLE
DYNAMIC LIFT...A BIT OF SPEED SHEAR ALOFT...AND THE MID LEVELS
MOISTENING A LITTLE AS WELL...BELIEVE ISOLD TO LOW-END SCATTERED
POPS ARE STILL A GOOD BET FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST POPS
FROM THE BOOKCLIFFS NORTH. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER
5 DEGREES OR SO ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LARGE OPEN TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON IT/S WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC JET WILL BE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND HELP PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACCORDING TO PWATS...PUSHING BACK TO NEAR 0.75 OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE AUGUST. HOWEVER PROFILES MOST OF THIS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE
MID AN UPPER LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A SHARPER CYCLONIC CURVE TO THE JET OVER
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOLUTION IS TAMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THE GFS/EURO KEEP A BROADER CURVE TO THE JET AND THE
BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH. IMPLICATIONS IN THE NAM SOLUTION
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE OTHER SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MORE WIND THAN RAIN LIKELY IN NORTHERN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND
ENDED PRECIPITATION QUICKER AND KEPT THE HIGHER POPS WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE NAM
ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A FRONT AND COOLER AIR INTO OUR CENTRAL
CWA. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE EURO KEEP THE FRONT WELL TO THE
NORTH. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE STILL USED FOR HIGHS AS THERE IS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEST
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE DRIER
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEAK CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS ZONAL TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REFORMS TO THE WEST.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST MONDAY WITH MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER AZ
AND NM...USHERING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS ALOFT TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
STALLS OVER THE PACNW AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
CNY TO MTJ LINE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...WINDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301741 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AS A WEAK RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK JET WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHLINE...ALONG WITH A FEW SMALL VORT MAXES. THESE WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.60 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADD SOME
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PREDICTED PWAT RISING ABOVE 0.70
INCHES AND CAPE IN THE 300 TO 600 JOULE RANGE. SO WITH A LITTLE
DYNAMIC LIFT...A BIT OF SPEED SHEAR ALOFT...AND THE MID LEVELS
MOISTENING A LITTLE AS WELL...BELIEVE ISOLD TO LOW-END SCATTERED
POPS ARE STILL A GOOD BET FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST POPS
FROM THE BOOKCLIFFS NORTH. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER
5 DEGREES OR SO ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LARGE OPEN TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON IT/S WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC JET WILL BE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND HELP PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACCORDING TO PWATS...PUSHING BACK TO NEAR 0.75 OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE AUGUST. HOWEVER PROFILES MOST OF THIS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE
MID AN UPPER LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A SHARPER CYCLONIC CURVE TO THE JET OVER
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOLUTION IS TAMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THE GFS/EURO KEEP A BROADER CURVE TO THE JET AND THE
BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH. IMPLICATIONS IN THE NAM SOLUTION
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE OTHER SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MORE WIND THAN RAIN LIKELY IN NORTHERN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND
ENDED PRECIPITATION QUICKER AND KEPT THE HIGHER POPS WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE NAM
ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A FRONT AND COOLER AIR INTO OUR CENTRAL
CWA. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE EURO KEEP THE FRONT WELL TO THE
NORTH. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE STILL USED FOR HIGHS AS THERE IS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEST
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE DRIER
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEAK CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS ZONAL TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REFORMS TO THE WEST.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST MONDAY WITH MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER AZ
AND NM...USHERING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS ALOFT TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
STALLS OVER THE PACNW AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
CNY TO MTJ LINE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...WINDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301704
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301704
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 301628
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 301628
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301612
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NEXT UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN GREAT
BASIN MOVING EAST. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE
TROF OVER UTAH AND JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING IN THE
MID/UPR LVLS WITH A SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
500-1000J/KG. EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN STRENGTH
AS THEY MOVE OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY 10-20 POPS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AT LOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP WITH MIXING...SO DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS LESS SO
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE A LITTLE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ELEVATED NEUTRAL MOIST LAYER MOVING
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS GIVEN THE DRYING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
EVERYWHERE. WARMER FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN THE AFTN.  AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG SO WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHC OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS A WEAK
PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WNW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTN
WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS MAY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER NERN CO ON WED.

BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU AND LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A COOL FNT MOVING INTO NERN
CO LATE THU INTO FRI WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FNT WHICH LEADS
TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTN HIGHS BOTH DAYS.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THU AND THEN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR FRI.
AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES ON FRI WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL FALL BETWEEN 23-02Z WITH MAIN THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40KT WITH THE BRIEF SHOWERS AT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING MORE VARIABLE 10KT OR LESS. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAINING VFR.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301612
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NEXT UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN GREAT
BASIN MOVING EAST. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE
TROF OVER UTAH AND JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING IN THE
MID/UPR LVLS WITH A SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
500-1000J/KG. EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN STRENGTH
AS THEY MOVE OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY 10-20 POPS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AT LOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP WITH MIXING...SO DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS LESS SO
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE A LITTLE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ELEVATED NEUTRAL MOIST LAYER MOVING
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS GIVEN THE DRYING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
EVERYWHERE. WARMER FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN THE AFTN.  AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG SO WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHC OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS A WEAK
PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WNW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTN
WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS MAY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER NERN CO ON WED.

BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU AND LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A COOL FNT MOVING INTO NERN
CO LATE THU INTO FRI WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FNT WHICH LEADS
TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTN HIGHS BOTH DAYS.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THU AND THEN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR FRI.
AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES ON FRI WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL FALL BETWEEN 23-02Z WITH MAIN THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40KT WITH THE BRIEF SHOWERS AT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING MORE VARIABLE 10KT OR LESS. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAINING VFR.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301612
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NEXT UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN GREAT
BASIN MOVING EAST. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE
TROF OVER UTAH AND JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING IN THE
MID/UPR LVLS WITH A SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
500-1000J/KG. EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN STRENGTH
AS THEY MOVE OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY 10-20 POPS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AT LOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP WITH MIXING...SO DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS LESS SO
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE A LITTLE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ELEVATED NEUTRAL MOIST LAYER MOVING
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS GIVEN THE DRYING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
EVERYWHERE. WARMER FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN THE AFTN.  AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG SO WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHC OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS A WEAK
PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WNW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTN
WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS MAY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER NERN CO ON WED.

BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU AND LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A COOL FNT MOVING INTO NERN
CO LATE THU INTO FRI WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FNT WHICH LEADS
TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTN HIGHS BOTH DAYS.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THU AND THEN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR FRI.
AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES ON FRI WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL FALL BETWEEN 23-02Z WITH MAIN THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40KT WITH THE BRIEF SHOWERS AT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING MORE VARIABLE 10KT OR LESS. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAINING VFR.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301612
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NEXT UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN GREAT
BASIN MOVING EAST. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE
TROF OVER UTAH AND JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING IN THE
MID/UPR LVLS WITH A SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
500-1000J/KG. EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN STRENGTH
AS THEY MOVE OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY 10-20 POPS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AT LOW LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL HELP WITH MIXING...SO DEW
POINTS SHOULD DROP IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS LESS SO
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP GENERATE A LITTLE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ELEVATED NEUTRAL MOIST LAYER MOVING
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS GIVEN THE DRYING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
EVERYWHERE. WARMER FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 60 ON THE PLAINS WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS IN THE AFTN.  AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG SO WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHC OF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS A WEAK
PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS.

ON MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WNW.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING NRN CO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTN
WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVER NERN CO.

FOR TUE AND WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS READINGS MAY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER NERN CO ON WED.

BY THU THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU AND LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A COOL FNT MOVING INTO NERN
CO LATE THU INTO FRI WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A FNT WHICH LEADS
TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTN HIGHS BOTH DAYS.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THU AND THEN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL FOR FRI.
AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES ON FRI WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL FALL BETWEEN 23-02Z WITH MAIN THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40KT WITH THE BRIEF SHOWERS AT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING MORE VARIABLE 10KT OR LESS. INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAINING VFR.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities