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000
FXUS65 KBOU 010949
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
349 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

A DRY AND MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES
OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR THAT HAS MOVED INTO COLORADO FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
INDUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLIES CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
BE WEAK...SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.

SOME CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM A SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT
QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS FROM BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT MAY
BE THAT SNOWFALL WILL NOT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
STICK WITH SOME LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FROM THE GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SUN AS AN UPPER LVL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN US SPLITS WITH ONE PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES WHILE A SECOND PIECE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN WITH SOME MINOR MID LVL QG ASCENT
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES SO WILL SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF
THE DIVIDE.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHC OF LATE AFTN SHOWERS NR THE WY BORDER.  850-700 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES SO AFTN HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE FM 65 TO 70.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTN.  THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND HAS IT MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
A BIT SLOWER WITH TROUGH PASSAGE LATE IN THE AFTN.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SFC A COLD FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SWLY FLOW AT 700 MB BEST CHC OF
OROGRAPHICS SNOW SUN NIGHT WILL BE OVER ZNS 31 AND 33.  IN ADDITION
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL JET COULD LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PCPN
SO COULD SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN SOME PLACES INTO MON MORNING.

ON MON WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE
FOOTHILLS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT AND POSITION OF UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STEADIER PCPN AT
SOME POINT FM MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS.  COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE
IF THINGS COME TOGETHER RIGHT.  GFS SHOWS FM 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOME SPOTS IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE SHOWING SIMILAR POTENTIAL.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BASED ON
COOLING SHOWN IN THE 850-700 MB LYR SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP DOWN TO
AROND 5500 FT.  SREF PLUME DATA SHOWS UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH SOME OF THE OUTLIERS HAVING UP TO 4
INCHES.  BASED ON RECENT WRM TEMPS EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO HOWEVER ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
IF PCPN AND CLOUD COVER LINGER THRU LATE AFTN THEN READINGS MAY NOT
GET ABV 40.

FOR MON NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MOST PCPN ENDING BY EARLY EVENING.  ON TUE DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER NRN CO SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN.  850-700 MB TEMPS RISE
AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES C SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER NERN CO.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WNW AS A LEE TROUGH DVLPS
NR THE FOOTHILLS.  WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND NR THE WY BORDER.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE CONFINED TO HIGHER LVLS SO WILL KEEP FCST
DRY.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 4 DEGREES C SO WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER NERN CO.

BY THU THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WHILE
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW BRISK WNW FLOW ALOFT.  AT THIS POINT
NEITHER MODEL HAS MUCH MOISTURE EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER LEVELS SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN.  IF GFS ENDS UP BEING RIGHT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND NR THE WY BORDER.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S OVER NERN CO.  ON FRI
CURRENTLY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
BACK TO SOUTHERLIES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT CEILINGS WILL EITHER BE NON-
EXISTENT OF WELL ABOVE 15 THOUSAND FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010949
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
349 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

A DRY AND MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES
OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR THAT HAS MOVED INTO COLORADO FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
INDUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLIES CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
BE WEAK...SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.

SOME CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM A SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN TO THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT
QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS FROM BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT MAY
BE THAT SNOWFALL WILL NOT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
STICK WITH SOME LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FROM THE GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SUN AS AN UPPER LVL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN US SPLITS WITH ONE PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES WHILE A SECOND PIECE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN WITH SOME MINOR MID LVL QG ASCENT
AND DECENT LAPSE RATES SO WILL SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF
THE DIVIDE.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHC OF LATE AFTN SHOWERS NR THE WY BORDER.  850-700 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES SO AFTN HIGHS OVER NERN CO WILL RANGE FM 65 TO 70.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTN.  THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND HAS IT MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
A BIT SLOWER WITH TROUGH PASSAGE LATE IN THE AFTN.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SFC A COLD FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SWLY FLOW AT 700 MB BEST CHC OF
OROGRAPHICS SNOW SUN NIGHT WILL BE OVER ZNS 31 AND 33.  IN ADDITION
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL JET COULD LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PCPN
SO COULD SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN SOME PLACES INTO MON MORNING.

ON MON WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE
FOOTHILLS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT AND POSITION OF UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STEADIER PCPN AT
SOME POINT FM MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS.  COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE
IF THINGS COME TOGETHER RIGHT.  GFS SHOWS FM 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOME SPOTS IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE SHOWING SIMILAR POTENTIAL.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BASED ON
COOLING SHOWN IN THE 850-700 MB LYR SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP DOWN TO
AROND 5500 FT.  SREF PLUME DATA SHOWS UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH SOME OF THE OUTLIERS HAVING UP TO 4
INCHES.  BASED ON RECENT WRM TEMPS EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO HOWEVER ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
IF PCPN AND CLOUD COVER LINGER THRU LATE AFTN THEN READINGS MAY NOT
GET ABV 40.

FOR MON NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MOST PCPN ENDING BY EARLY EVENING.  ON TUE DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER NRN CO SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN.  850-700 MB TEMPS RISE
AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES C SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER NERN CO.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WNW AS A LEE TROUGH DVLPS
NR THE FOOTHILLS.  WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND NR THE WY BORDER.  CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE CONFINED TO HIGHER LVLS SO WILL KEEP FCST
DRY.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 4 DEGREES C SO WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER NERN CO.

BY THU THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WHILE
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW BRISK WNW FLOW ALOFT.  AT THIS POINT
NEITHER MODEL HAS MUCH MOISTURE EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER LEVELS SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN.  IF GFS ENDS UP BEING RIGHT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND NR THE WY BORDER.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S OVER NERN CO.  ON FRI
CURRENTLY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
BACK TO SOUTHERLIES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT CEILINGS WILL EITHER BE NON-
EXISTENT OF WELL ABOVE 15 THOUSAND FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS



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000
FXUS65 KGJT 010927
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
327 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD AND SPLITTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS SFC GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN BATTLE BETWEEN
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND COLDER CONDITIONS ADVANCING EASTWARD
ACROSS UTAH. LATEST SHRT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN
ACTIVE MORNING PERIOD AS WEAK WAVE EJECTING OUT AND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARRIVES. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO PICK-UP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND LATEST HRRR MODEL DRIVES THIS ACTIVITY
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNRISE WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. H7
SPEEDS PEAK AROUND 15Z AND THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS GRADIENTS
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...NOT PLANNING ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS
WITH RAIN HITTING THE VALLEY FLOORS...SO MOMENTUM TRANSFER LIKELY
HINDERED A BIT BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKING IN. WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR VALUES EXPERIENCE YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WHERE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT TODAY.

AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AN INITIAL
WAVE OF ENERGY SPLITS OFF AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE STORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN UTAH IN THE EVENING IS PROGGED
TO STALL ROUGHLY ALONG A KDWX TO 20 TO 30 MILES EAST OF KPGA LINE
BY 12Z/SUN. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IN
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AS A 100KT JET NOSES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BRING A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. MEANWHILE...7H TEMPS
FALL TO NEAR ZERO ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
ACCUMULATING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AS A RELATIVELY BALANCED JET
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH HOLDS THE SYSTEM
IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT EASES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
WILL MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF CAA. CLOUDS... PRECIPITATION AND
COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO MARKEDLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BELOW 8000 FEET. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOUNTAIN
AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET ALIGNED WITH THE STALLED FRONT FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SPECIFICALLY...THIS WATCH WILL INCLUDE
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH...THE GRAND MESA...AND THE FLAT
TOPS. ALSO INCLUDED ARE THE WESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMICS FAVORED. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE THIS LEVEL
COULD POTENTIALLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH UP TO A FOOT
POSSIBLE ON HIGHER SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. UNDERSTANDABLY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.

FLAT RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED. WITH THE RIDGE COMES DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AFTER
18Z...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST
UTAH. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AGAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40KTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 9500 FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
     MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ009-012-013-018-019.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 9500 FEET FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
     MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/NL
LONG TERM...NL/JDC
AVIATION...JDC



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000
FXUS65 KPUB 010734
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
134 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

AREA RADARS SHOWING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND MESONET SENSORS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP AROUND A
TENTH OF LIQUID IN SOME SPOTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE DROPPING AND ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 9-9.5 KFT BASED ON MESONET SENSORS. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH 13Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MODELS SHOW A
LULL THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERN SAN
JUANS WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE/IMPACT DUE TO ENHANCEMENT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SANGRES...COLLEGIATES...MOSQUITOS...AND THE
VALLEYS IN BETWEEN TOWARDS EARLY MORNING. A QUICK 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS THIS MORNING
ABOVE 9-10KFT...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE OTHER HIGH
MOUNTAIN AREAS.  QUICK UPDATE TO BOOST POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO ADDED SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WAS PRODUCING S-SE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...KEEPING
TEMPS RATHER COOL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
SLOPES AND BACK TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...W-SW FLOW WAS
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF DIGGING WESTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH...LEADING TO SOME TEMPS APPROACHING 60F OVER MOST VALLEYS AND
FAVORED EAST SLOPES. OVERNIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS AS WESTERN TROUGH TURNS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MOISTURE EJECTING FROM THE
TROUGH PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAN
JUANS TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SAT MORNING. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WON`T BE TERRIBLY HEAVY...THOUGH HIGHER PEAKS IN THE SAN
JUANS DOWN TO WOLF CREEK PASS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS...SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVERNIGHT...WITH
ACCOMPANYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MINS MILD MANY AREAS AS WINDS
NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.

ON SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE STATE WITH WEAK
LIFT DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTION
GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES GET
STEEP ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...AND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UPWARD WITH INCREASED MIXING...AND SOME
MID TO UPPER 70S LOOK LIKELY OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE
ROCKIES...WITH A NORTHERN LOW OVER IDAHO AND MONTANA...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO THE BE SAN JUAN
RANGE WHERE SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCE HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL. SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD ABOVE 9 KFT. MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES...MIXING WILL LEAD TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WHEN COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT...WE
WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
SHOULD BE DONE WITH EXTREME CAUTION.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER MONTANA WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST CUTS OFF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. THIS LEAVES
SOUTHERN COLORADO BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH MOUNTAINS
CONTINUING TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW. AS FOR THE PLAINS...MODELS
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND COOLER ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. MODELS
HIGHLY VARIABLE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. THE NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT...AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF BRINGS A QUICK SHOT TO THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON
RIDGE DUE TO THE LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT ALL
ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL PUT THE ROCKIES UNDER BROAD DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 17Z-20Z. POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE MTN WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AT COS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z SUN AS LEE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SNOW AND IFR
CONDITIONS TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010625
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1225 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

FEW STORMS SHOWING UP ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH AND APPARENT WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING ENE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES PER THE LATEST
HRRR RUN WITH NEW CELLS DEVELOPING BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POPS UP ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG OUR SOUTH
FACING SLOPES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK WARM FRONT STRUCTURE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CONVECTION FIRED ON THIS LINE EARLIER IN JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLORADO BORDER...MOST LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ON THE 305K THETA SURFACE. NOT MUCH
EXCITEMENT ON THE RADAR MOSAIC ATTM HOWEVER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING SOME THICKENING AND COOLING OF THE CLOUD COVER ALONG
THE SW COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST. FORECAST AND TRENDS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT. A POOL OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
AZ/NM GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE UT/SW CO LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON RAISING
POPS WITH DRIER AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE INITIALLY...AND CUT BACK
VALUES FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS WINDY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER VALLEYS OF SE UT AND NW CO...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THIS THE RESULT OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A FAIRLY WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS NV...AS THE MAIN TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES.
THIS EJECTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONCENTRATE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST SAT AFTERNOON WHILE SOME DRYING WORKS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS. WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORE TOWARD NE UT SAT
AFTERNOON AND TAPER POPS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CO. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WITH A BIT MORE SUN ANTICIPATED IN STILL
MILD SW FLOW...BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD ON SAT.

THE SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT.
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FROM
THE W-NW. 700 MB TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS AS THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS NOW SLOWER...BUT THIS 700 MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW...AIDED BY 300 MB JET THAT REFORMS NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOOSTED POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
CHANGING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PART
CONTINUES TO DIG WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS INCREASE ALOFT IN FRONT OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS MODELS ARE
SLIGHT MORE CONSISTENT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIVELY SLANTED
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND CUTS OFF OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. ONE MODEL TAKES THIS EAST INTO TEXAS WHILE THE
OTHER HINTS AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS LOW SKIRTING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA THURSDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION LATE MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE TO NEAR NOTHING AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO
INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH
CIGS NEAR 090 WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND REMAINED FAVORED IN THIS REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE OVER
MANY AIRFIELDS AND WILL NEED TO PLANNED FOR THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNSET.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WAS PRODUCING S-SE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...KEEPING
TEMPS RATHER COOL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
SLOPES AND BACK TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...W-SW FLOW WAS
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF DIGGING WESTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH...LEADING TO SOME TEMPS APPROACHING 60F OVER MOST VALLEYS AND
FAVORED EAST SLOPES. OVERNIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS AS WESTERN TROUGH TURNS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MOISTURE EJECTING FROM THE
TROUGH PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAN
JUANS TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SAT MORNING. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WON`T BE TERRIBLY HEAVY...THOUGH HIGHER PEAKS IN THE SAN
JUANS DOWN TO WOLF CREEK PASS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS...SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVERNIGHT...WITH
ACCOMPANYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MINS MILD MANY AREAS AS WINDS
NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.

ON SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE STATE WITH WEAK
LIFT DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTION
GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES GET
STEEP ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...AND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UPWARD WITH INCREASED MIXING...AND SOME
MID TO UPPER 70S LOOK LIKELY OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE
ROCKIES...WITH A NORTHERN LOW OVER IDAHO AND MONTANA...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO THE BE SAN JUAN
RANGE WHERE SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCE HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL. SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD ABOVE 9 KFT. MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES...MIXING WILL LEAD TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WHEN COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT...WE
WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
SHOULD BE DONE WITH EXTREME CAUTION.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER MONTANA WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST CUTS OFF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. THIS LEAVES
SOUTHERN COLORADO BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH MOUNTAINS
CONTINUING TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW. AS FOR THE PLAINS...MODELS
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND COOLER ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. MODELS
HIGHLY VARIABLE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. THE NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT...AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF BRINGS A QUICK SHOT TO THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON
RIDGE DUE TO THE LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT ALL
ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL PUT THE ROCKIES UNDER BROAD DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 17Z-20Z. POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE MTN WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AT COS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z SUN AS LEE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SNOW AND IFR
CONDITIONS TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010435
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1035 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK WARM FRONT STRUCTURE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CONVECTION FIRED ON THIS LINE EARLIER IN JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLORADO BORDER...MOST LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ON THE 305K THETA SURFACE. NOT MUCH
EXCITEMENT ON THE RADAR MOSAIC ATTM HOWEVER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING SOME THICKENING AND COOLING OF THE CLOUD COVER ALONG
THE SW COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST. FORECAST AND TRENDS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT. A POOL OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
AZ/NM GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE UT/SW CO LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON RAISING
POPS WITH DRIER AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE INITIALLY...AND CUT BACK
VALUES FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS WINDY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER VALLEYS OF SE UT AND NW CO...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THIS THE RESULT OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A FAIRLY WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS NV...AS THE MAIN TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES.
THIS EJECTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONCENTRATE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST SAT AFTERNOON WHILE SOME DRYING WORKS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS. WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORE TOWARD NE UT SAT
AFTERNOON AND TAPER POPS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CO. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WITH A BIT MORE SUN ANTICIPATED IN STILL
MILD SW FLOW...BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD ON SAT.

THE SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT.
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FROM
THE W-NW. 700 MB TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS AS THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS NOW SLOWER...BUT THIS 700 MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW...AIDED BY 300 MB JET THAT REFORMS NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOOSTED POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
CHANGING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PART
CONTINUES TO DIG WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS INCREASE ALOFT IN FRONT OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS MODELS ARE
SLIGHT MORE CONSISTENT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIVELY SLANTED
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND CUTS OFF OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. ONE MODEL TAKES THIS EAST INTO TEXAS WHILE THE
OTHER HINTS AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS LOW SKIRTING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA THURSDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION LATE MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE TO NEAR NOTHING AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO
INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH
CIGS NEAR 090 WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND REMAINED FAVORED IN THIS REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE OVER
MANY AIRFIELDS AND WILL NEED TO PLANNED FOR THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010403
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1003 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK WARM FRONT STRUCTURE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CONVECTION FIRED ON THIS LINE EARLIER IN JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLORADO BORDER...MOST LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ON THE 305K THETA SURFACE. NOT MUCH
EXCITEMENT ON THE RADAR MOSAIC ATTM HOWEVER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING SOME THICKENING AND COOLING OF THE CLOUD COVER ALONG
THE SW COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST. FORECAST AND TRENDS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT. A POOL OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
AZ/NM GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE UT/SW CO LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON RAISING
POPS WITH DRIER AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE INITIALLY...AND CUT BACK
VALUES FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS WINDY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER VALLEYS OF SE UT AND NW CO...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THIS THE RESULT OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A FAIRLY WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS NV...AS THE MAIN TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES.
THIS EJECTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONCENTRATE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST SAT AFTERNOON WHILE SOME DRYING WORKS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS. WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORE TOWARD NE UT SAT
AFTERNOON AND TAPER POPS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CO. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WITH A BIT MORE SUN ANTICIPATED IN STILL
MILD SW FLOW...BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD ON SAT.

THE SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT.
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FROM
THE W-NW. 700 MB TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS AS THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS NOW SLOWER...BUT THIS 700 MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW...AIDED BY 300 MB JET THAT REFORMS NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOOSTED POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
CHANGING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PART
CONTINUES TO DIG WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS INCREASE ALOFT IN FRONT OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS MODELS ARE
SLIGHT MORE CONSISTENT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIVELY SLANTED
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND CUTS OFF OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. ONE MODEL TAKES THIS EAST INTO TEXAS WHILE THE
OTHER HINTS AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS LOW SKIRTING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA THURSDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION LATE MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE TO NEAR NOTHING AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO
INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 01/06Z THIS SHOULD STAY MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL
GRADUALLY ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOP. OBSCURATION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IS MOST LIKELY AS
CONFIDENCE OF LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA AT TAF SITES REMAINS VERY
LOW. SO FOR NOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE AREA FORECAST
TERMINALS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010403
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1003 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK WARM FRONT STRUCTURE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CONVECTION FIRED ON THIS LINE EARLIER IN JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLORADO BORDER...MOST LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ON THE 305K THETA SURFACE. NOT MUCH
EXCITEMENT ON THE RADAR MOSAIC ATTM HOWEVER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING SOME THICKENING AND COOLING OF THE CLOUD COVER ALONG
THE SW COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST. FORECAST AND TRENDS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT. A POOL OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
AZ/NM GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE UT/SW CO LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON RAISING
POPS WITH DRIER AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE INITIALLY...AND CUT BACK
VALUES FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS WINDY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER VALLEYS OF SE UT AND NW CO...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THIS THE RESULT OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A FAIRLY WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS NV...AS THE MAIN TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES.
THIS EJECTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONCENTRATE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST SAT AFTERNOON WHILE SOME DRYING WORKS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS. WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORE TOWARD NE UT SAT
AFTERNOON AND TAPER POPS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CO. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WITH A BIT MORE SUN ANTICIPATED IN STILL
MILD SW FLOW...BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD ON SAT.

THE SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT.
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FROM
THE W-NW. 700 MB TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS AS THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS NOW SLOWER...BUT THIS 700 MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW...AIDED BY 300 MB JET THAT REFORMS NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOOSTED POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
CHANGING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PART
CONTINUES TO DIG WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS INCREASE ALOFT IN FRONT OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS MODELS ARE
SLIGHT MORE CONSISTENT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIVELY SLANTED
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND CUTS OFF OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. ONE MODEL TAKES THIS EAST INTO TEXAS WHILE THE
OTHER HINTS AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS LOW SKIRTING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA THURSDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION LATE MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE TO NEAR NOTHING AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO
INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 01/06Z THIS SHOULD STAY MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL
GRADUALLY ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOP. OBSCURATION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IS MOST LIKELY AS
CONFIDENCE OF LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA AT TAF SITES REMAINS VERY
LOW. SO FOR NOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE AREA FORECAST
TERMINALS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010352 AAA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
952 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN ON THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER PRESENTLY AT OR ABOVE 25K FT MSL. LIGHT 700-500MB ZONAL
FLOW ALSO BEGINNING TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. EXCEPT FOR MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER...WINDS AND MIN TEMPERATURES...CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA
AND THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM. THERE IS A DECENT DENVER CYCLONE
GOING RIGHT NOW. THE RADAR INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE
LINE STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WELD COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE LINE HAS MOVED VERY
LITTLE THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EAST OF IT PRETTY STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT WINDS ARE FEATURED WEST
OF THE LINE AND ON INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED ON SATURDAY. WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO BE DRAINAGE TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS...
MAYBE ENHANCED A TAD FOR THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
FIELD EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...THE WIND FIELD OVER THE PLAINS MAY
BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE. FOR MOISTURE...BASICALLY THERE WILL
BE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND HERE AND THERE FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS.
THE SATELLITE PICTURES CONFIRM THIS. THERE IS NO LOW OR MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE HAD ON THE MODELS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON
LATE. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS
LOOK TO BE 5 TO 9 C WARMER THAN THE CURRENT READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL...WITH PCPN FAVORING ZONE
31 SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
SO OROGRAPHICALLY...ZONES 31 AND 33 HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD OVER THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL DROPPING TO
AROUND 6K FT AGL MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF SHALLOW
UPSLOPE MONDAY MORNING...THE WIND WEAKENS AND BECOMES NNWLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE APPEAR LIGHT AT
THIS TIME...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. MONDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...A DRY NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER COLORADO WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. IF ANY
PCPN DEVELOPS...THERE COULD BE SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
DEVELOPING IN THE ZONES 31 AND 33 AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
THE NEAR FUTURE. THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE NOT FAR EAST OF
THE AIRPORT BUT ARE MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS MOVING WEST. DECENT
DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
MORE SOUTHEASTERLIES OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH A DENVER CYCLONE
AGAIN. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SFC WINDS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS HAVE BEEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
AT 6-12KTS THIS EVENING. PAST HOUR OR SO HAVE NOTICED A GRADUAL
TREND TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WITH FLOW ALOFT ASSUMING A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AS WELL. SUCH WINDS WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN
COOLING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AFTER
06Z...WINDS SHOULD ASSUME A SLY-SELY DIRECTION AT SPEEDS GENERALLY
UNDER 8 KTS. IN ADDITION...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH NO IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

$$

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...KOOP
LONG TERM....COOP
AVIATION.....BAKER/KOOP




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010352 AAA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
952 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN ON THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER PRESENTLY AT OR ABOVE 25K FT MSL. LIGHT 700-500MB ZONAL
FLOW ALSO BEGINNING TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. EXCEPT FOR MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER...WINDS AND MIN TEMPERATURES...CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA
AND THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM. THERE IS A DECENT DENVER CYCLONE
GOING RIGHT NOW. THE RADAR INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE
LINE STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WELD COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE LINE HAS MOVED VERY
LITTLE THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EAST OF IT PRETTY STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT WINDS ARE FEATURED WEST
OF THE LINE AND ON INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED ON SATURDAY. WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO BE DRAINAGE TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS...
MAYBE ENHANCED A TAD FOR THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
FIELD EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...THE WIND FIELD OVER THE PLAINS MAY
BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE. FOR MOISTURE...BASICALLY THERE WILL
BE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND HERE AND THERE FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS.
THE SATELLITE PICTURES CONFIRM THIS. THERE IS NO LOW OR MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE HAD ON THE MODELS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON
LATE. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS
LOOK TO BE 5 TO 9 C WARMER THAN THE CURRENT READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL...WITH PCPN FAVORING ZONE
31 SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
SO OROGRAPHICALLY...ZONES 31 AND 33 HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD OVER THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL DROPPING TO
AROUND 6K FT AGL MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF SHALLOW
UPSLOPE MONDAY MORNING...THE WIND WEAKENS AND BECOMES NNWLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE APPEAR LIGHT AT
THIS TIME...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. MONDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...A DRY NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER COLORADO WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. IF ANY
PCPN DEVELOPS...THERE COULD BE SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
DEVELOPING IN THE ZONES 31 AND 33 AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
THE NEAR FUTURE. THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE NOT FAR EAST OF
THE AIRPORT BUT ARE MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS MOVING WEST. DECENT
DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
MORE SOUTHEASTERLIES OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH A DENVER CYCLONE
AGAIN. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SFC WINDS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS HAVE BEEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
AT 6-12KTS THIS EVENING. PAST HOUR OR SO HAVE NOTICED A GRADUAL
TREND TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WITH FLOW ALOFT ASSUMING A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AS WELL. SUCH WINDS WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN
COOLING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AFTER
06Z...WINDS SHOULD ASSUME A SLY-SELY DIRECTION AT SPEEDS GENERALLY
UNDER 8 KTS. IN ADDITION...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH NO IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

$$

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...KOOP
LONG TERM....COOP
AVIATION.....BAKER/KOOP




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312239
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT. A POOL OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
AZ/NM GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE UT/SW CO LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON RAISING
POPS WITH DRIER AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE INITIALLY...AND CUT BACK
VALUES FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS WINDY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER VALLEYS OF SE UT AND NW CO...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THIS THE RESULT OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A FAIRLY WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS NV...AS THE MAIN TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES.
THIS EJECTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONCENTRATE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST SAT AFTERNOON WHILE SOME DRYING WORKS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS. WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORE TOWARD NE UT SAT
AFTERNOON AND TAPER POPS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CO. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WITH A BIT MORE SUN ANTICIPATED IN STILL
MILD SW FLOW...BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD ON SAT.

THE SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT.
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FROM
THE W-NW. 700 MB TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS AS THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS NOW SLOWER...BUT THIS 700 MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW...AIDED BY 300 MB JET THAT REFORMS NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOOSTED POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
CHANGING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PART
CONTINUES TO DIG WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS INCREASE ALOFT IN FRONT OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS MODELS ARE
SLIGHT MORE CONSISTENT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIVELY SLANTED
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND CUTS OFF OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. ONE MODEL TAKES THIS EAST INTO TEXAS WHILE THE
OTHER HINTS AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS LOW SKIRTING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA THURSDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION LATE MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE TO NEAR NOTHING AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO
INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 01/06Z THIS SHOULD STAY MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL
GRADUALLY ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOP. OBSCURATION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IS MOST LIKELY AS
CONFIDENCE OF LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA AT TAF SITES REMAINS VERY
LOW. SO FOR NOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE AREA FORECAST
TERMINALS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312239
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT. A POOL OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
AZ/NM GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE UT/SW CO LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON RAISING
POPS WITH DRIER AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE INITIALLY...AND CUT BACK
VALUES FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS WINDY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER VALLEYS OF SE UT AND NW CO...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THIS THE RESULT OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A FAIRLY WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS NV...AS THE MAIN TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES.
THIS EJECTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONCENTRATE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST SAT AFTERNOON WHILE SOME DRYING WORKS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS. WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORE TOWARD NE UT SAT
AFTERNOON AND TAPER POPS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CO. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WITH A BIT MORE SUN ANTICIPATED IN STILL
MILD SW FLOW...BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD ON SAT.

THE SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT.
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FROM
THE W-NW. 700 MB TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS AS THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS NOW SLOWER...BUT THIS 700 MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW...AIDED BY 300 MB JET THAT REFORMS NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOOSTED POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
CHANGING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PART
CONTINUES TO DIG WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS INCREASE ALOFT IN FRONT OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS MODELS ARE
SLIGHT MORE CONSISTENT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIVELY SLANTED
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND CUTS OFF OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. ONE MODEL TAKES THIS EAST INTO TEXAS WHILE THE
OTHER HINTS AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS LOW SKIRTING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA THURSDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION LATE MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE TO NEAR NOTHING AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO
INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 01/06Z THIS SHOULD STAY MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL
GRADUALLY ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOP. OBSCURATION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IS MOST LIKELY AS
CONFIDENCE OF LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA AT TAF SITES REMAINS VERY
LOW. SO FOR NOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE AREA FORECAST
TERMINALS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312140
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT. A POOL OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
AZ/NM GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE UT/SW CO LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON RAISING
POPS WITH DRIER AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE INITIALLY...AND CUT BACK
VALUES FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS WINDY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER VALLEYS OF SE UT AND NW CO...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THIS THE RESULT OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A FAIRLY WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS NV...AS THE MAIN TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES.
THIS EJECTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONCENTRATE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST SAT AFTERNOON WHILE SOME DRYING WORKS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS. WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORE TOWARD NE UT SAT
AFTERNOON AND TAPER POPS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CO. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WITH A BIT MORE SUN ANTICIPATED IN STILL
MILD SW FLOW...BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A TAD ON SAT.

THE SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT.
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FROM
THE W-NW. 700 MB TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS AS THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS NOW SLOWER...BUT THIS 700 MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW...AIDED BY 300 MB JET THAT REFORMS NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z SUNDAY. BOOSTED POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AS A
RESULT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
CHANGING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PART
CONTINUES TO DIG WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS INCREASE ALOFT IN FRONT OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS MODELS ARE
SLIGHT MORE CONSISTENT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIVELY SLANTED
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY MONDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND CUTS OFF OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. ONE MODEL TAKES THIS EAST INTO TEXAS WHILE THE
OTHER HINTS AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS LOW SKIRTING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA THURSDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION LATE MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE TO NEAR NOTHING AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO
INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER OVER SE UT AND SW CO THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES. THIS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA OVERNIGHT IN SE UT AND SW CO SOUTH OF KCNY-KGUC LINE AND GENERALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE LITTLE IMPACT ON KTEX AND KDRO
AT THE MOMENT THOUGH MTN TOPS SURROUNDING KTEX MAY BE BRIEFLY
OBSCURED AT TIMES TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KPUB 312105
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WAS PRODUCING S-SE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...KEEPING
TEMPS RATHER COOL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
SLOPES AND BACK TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...W-SW FLOW WAS
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF DIGGING WESTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH...LEADING TO SOME TEMPS APPROACHING 60F OVER MOST VALLEYS AND
FAVORED EAST SLOPES. OVERNIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS AS WESTERN TROUGH TURNS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MOISTURE EJECTING FROM THE
TROUGH PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAN
JUANS TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SAT MORNING. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WON`T BE TERRIBLY HEAVY...THOUGH HIGHER PEAKS IN THE SAN
JUANS DOWN TO WOLF CREEK PASS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS...SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVERNIGHT...WITH
ACCOMPANYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MINS MILD MANY AREAS AS WINDS
NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.

ON SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE STATE WITH WEAK
LIFT DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTION
GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES GET
STEEP ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...AND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP UPWARD WITH INCREASED MIXING...AND SOME
MID TO UPPER 70S LOOK LIKELY OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE
ROCKIES...WITH A NORTHERN LOW OVER IDAHO AND MONTANA...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO THE BE SAN JUAN
RANGE WHERE SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCE HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL. SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD ABOVE 9 KFT. MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES...MIXING WILL LEAD TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WHEN COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT...WE
WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
SHOULD BE DONE WITH EXTREME CAUTION.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER MONTANA WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST CUTS OFF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. THIS LEAVES
SOUTHERN COLORADO BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH MOUNTAINS
CONTINUING TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW. AS FOR THE PLAINS...MODELS
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND COOLER ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. MODELS
HIGHLY VARIABLE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. THE NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT...AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF BRINGS A QUICK SHOT TO THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE PLAINS DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON
RIDGE DUE TO THE LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT ALL
ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL PUT THE ROCKIES UNDER BROAD DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATION AT TIMES OVER THE SAN
JUANS BY 06Z...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...THOUGH PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY
AFTERNOON. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALL AREAS BY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER THE PLAINS AND 30-40
KNOTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 312034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
234 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA
AND THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM. THERE IS A DECENT DENVER CYCLONE
GOING RIGHT NOW. THE RADAR INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE
LINE STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WELD COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE LINE HAS MOVED VERY
LITTLE THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EAST OF IT PRETTY STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT WINDS ARE FEATURED WEST
OF THE LINE AND ON INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED ON SATURDAY. WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO BE DRAINAGE TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS...
MAYBE ENHANCED A TAD FOR THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
FIELD EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...THE WIND FIELD OVER THE PLAINS MAY
BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE. FOR MOISTURE...BASICALLY THERE WILL
BE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND HERE AND THERE FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS.
THE SATELLITE PICTURES CONFIRM THIS. THERE IS NO LOW OR MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE HAD ON THE MODELS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON
LATE. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS
LOOK TO BE 5 TO 9 C WARMER THAN THE CURRENT READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL...WITH PCPN FAVORING ZONE
31 SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
SO OROGRAPHICALLY...ZONES 31 AND 33 HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD OVER THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL DROPPING TO
AROUND 6K FT AGL MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF SHALLOW
UPSLOPE MONDAY MORNING...THE WIND WEAKENS AND BECOMES NNWLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE APPEAR LIGHT AT
THIS TIME...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. MONDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...A DRY NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER COLORADO WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. IF ANY
PCPN DEVELOPS...THERE COULD BE SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
DEVELOPING IN THE ZONES 31 AND 33 AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
THE NEAR FUTURE. THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE NOT FAR EAST OF
THE AIRPORT BUT ARE MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS MOVING WEST. DECENT
DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
MORE SOUTHEASTERLIES OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH A DENVER CYCLONE
AGAIN. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOOP
LONG TERM....COOP
AVIATION.....KOOP




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311751
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1151 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPDATED TO ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AT 8 AM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES MADE TO PACKAGE UPDATE.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH KPUB AND KLAA NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AS OF 330 AM.
ALTHOUGH THE FREEZE THIS MORNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE LONG
ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO BE A SEASON ENDING KILLING
FREEZE...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH OF THE AREA WILL HIT FREEZING TO
WARRANT MAINTAINING THE FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.  SFC WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WEST SIDE OF
SFC HIGH DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL ADVECT
COOLER AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS VS THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER AS A
RESULT.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE
WHEN COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.  MTN TOPS
SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS RESULT...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH FIRST
SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP AROUND 02-03Z ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN HIGH RES MODELS.  BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SEEMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND
11 KFT OVERNIGHT...AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS COULD
PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRES...AND THE
MOSQUITO AND LA GARITA RANGES TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
LEE TROFFING TO THE LEE OF THE SE MTS.  IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES
MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE LOWER SE MTS...THEN WARM OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE IMPACT SYSTEM WILL
HAVE ON THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY
HARD FREEZE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WESTERN LOCATIONS)
AS WELL AS UNSEASONABLY WARM EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AS TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. GRADIENT
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THEN AN UPPER SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO FROM
LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT MONDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN SECTIONS FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE NOTED OVER
THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS COLORADO AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW.

WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED THIS
WEEKEND(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

FINALLY...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS AT TIMES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATION AT TIMES AFTER 06Z. S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 311705
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE IS HIGH CLOUDINESS AROUND...MAYBE 40% COVERAGE ACROSS ALL
THE CWA. THERE IS TAD OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER SEDGWICK AND
PHILLIPS COUNTIES RIGHT NOW...BUT IT SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE NOON.
THE DECENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE KICKED IN OVER THE
PLAINS. SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED. THE GFE GRIDS
HAVE THIS PRETTY WELL COVERED. WILL PUT MORE CLOUDINESS IN THE
GRIDS AND TEND TO THE TEMPERATURES A TAD...PERHAPS LOWER THEM A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL DELIVER ANOTHER DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLIP OVER THE RIDGE AND PRODUCE CIRRUS CLOUDS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER THING TO LOOK OUT FOR
IS SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING AN AREA OF STRATUS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALL NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD REACH SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES BY 6 AM. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS ARE DOWN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS...SO WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IF
STRATUS DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE VALLEY BETWEEN FORT MORGAN
AND GREELEY...THEN IT MAY GET DRAWN INTO THE NORTHERN DENVER METRO
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO INDUCE A DENVER CYCLONE WHICH WILL
KEEP ADVECTING COOL AIR FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE
FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON HIGHS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING SHOULD SEE NO IMPACT FROM THE
WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES COOL FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LATE EVENING READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WRN US ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THIS LEAVES NRN CO IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN.  WITH
DECENT LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A SFC LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  THUS SHOULD SEE WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH READINGS RANGING FM THE MID TO UPPER
60S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

ON SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL SPLIT AS ONE
PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS NNE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE A SECOND
PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAVE NRN CO
IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE MTNS.
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH SOME MINOR MID LVL ASCENT BY AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS.
OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA NR THE WY BORDER BY LATE AFTN. AS
FOR HIGHS INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SLIGHT COOLING IN
THE 850-700 MB LYR WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
NERN CO.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  COMBINATION
OF MID LVL ASCENT AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS.  OROGRAPHICS ARE WK THRU
THE PERIOD SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY STAY GENERALLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES COULD RECEIVE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS.  OVER NERN CO A COLD FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO AROUND 700 MB BASED
ON CURRENT GFS.  AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL
ASCENT MOVE ACROSS ON MON ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHC
OF PCPN IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
WELL.  SOUNDINGS FM THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE PCPN FALLING MOSTLY AS SNOW
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON MON WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER AND KEEPS PCPN
MOSTLY RAIN.  AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE COLDER IF ECMWF IS
CORRECT.

BY MON NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH PCPN ENDING EARLY MON EVENING IN MOST AREAS.  BY TUE DRIER
AIR IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PCPN.  WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER NERN CO.

FOR WED AND THU A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES ON
WED AND THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON THU. THUS HIGHS SHOULD RISE
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER NERN CO ON WED AND THEN FROM
65 TO 70 ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE DECENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE STILL WELL EAST OF DIA
RIGHT NOW. IT IS LIKELY A DECENT DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BUT ITS CENTER OR AXIS WOULD
BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS TIME. WILL PUT SOME SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLIES IN BY 18/19Z FOR NOW. NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG EVER
MADE IT EVEN CLOSE THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE NO
CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311705
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER CO WAS SHIFTING EAST WITH SW FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. BANDS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
UT. MOISTURE DEPTH DOESN`T APPEAR GREAT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES LESS THAN 100 PCT OF NORMAL PER SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND SOME SUNSHINE MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HOLD OFF ON ANY
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST OF
ANOTHER MILD AND GENERALLY DRY DAY APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY/TEMP/POP GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS A SPLITTING TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE SPINE OF COLORADO WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEVADA...MORE
DISCERNIBLE AT THE 300 MB LEVEL...REACHES WRN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
RADAR OBSERVATION SHOW WEAK DBZ RETURNS INDICATING THERE IS SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS DO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SW
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETIMES THIS IS OVERDONE AFTER A
PROLONG DRY PERIOD...BUT REASONABLE THAT SOME VIRGA SHAFTS WILL
EXIST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND. ANOTHER MILD DAY
EXPECTED...PERHAPS 1-3 DEGREES WARMING (EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS
SPREADING FROM THE WEST.)

STILL A DIFFICULT FORECAST COMING UP THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WHEN
THIS PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL BE TAKING A SHORT HIATUS. 00Z H5
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THAT THE
MODELS HAD BEEN PREDICTING. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL AID IN
FORMING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...WHERE
IT PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY/S FORECAST LOOKS
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO AND GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER SOME
DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT FUZZY. 305K THETA SURFACES CONTINUE TO
SHOW MOISTURE HEADING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SONORAN REGION
TODAY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE GULF AND PACIFIC CONVERGING
THERE THIS MORNING. WEAK UPGLIDE AND OROGRAPHICS LOOKS TO SPREAD
MOISTURE INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT OVERALL
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING AND FOCUSED WELL TO THE WEST.
SHOWERS APPEAR BEST ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET THAT FORMS
OVERNIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. POPS LOOK GOOD HERE. CROSS
SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADD SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO HELP
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO THINK IT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL NOT BE SATURATED.
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...BUT AIDED BY
STRONG MIXING AND REALIZED WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
STILL A 10 DEGREE SPLIT IN GUIDANCE AND GUT FEELING IS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE...BUT STAYED WITH GOING FORECAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BY LATE SATURDAY THE SPLIT IN THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT. EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER JET MAX BEGINS TO
REFORM ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND IT WILL REINFORCE WHAT
IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN SPLIT WITH UPSTREAM ENERGY. STILL NOT VERY
ACTIVE OUR CWA WITH LIFT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
FRONT PUSHING THOUGH AS THE TROUGH SPLITS AND BRINGS SOME CAA.
OROGRAPHICS SEEM THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT AND SHOULD KEEP SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER REMAIN
DRY. THE BIGGER PUSH BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS THE JET AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT SHIFTS OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  STRONG PV FROM THE JET
MOVING IN ALOFT REDUCES STATIC INSTABILITY...MOISTURE UNDER THIS
LAYER PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POPS LOOK GOOD THERE FOR NOW. THE MAIN FRONT
SHOULD BE HUNG UP TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST UTAH LATE IN THE DAY AND
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP IN THAT DIRECTION. IN THE MIDDLE ISOLATED
TO LOW CHANCE POPS SUFFICE FOR NOW UNTIL PICTURE CLEARS JUST A BIT
ON TIMING. TEMPERATURES DROP SOME 10 DEGREES WITH PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

MONDAY...COLD TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS (RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 5500 TO 6000
FEET). SHADED POPS TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE TO CORRECT FOR MODEL SPREAD
INHERENT IN THE INITIAL CONSENSUS POP FIELD. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE COLD TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION OVER OLD MEXICO AND TEXAS. WITH THE PACIFIC JET
REDEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...A WEST TO EAST RIDGE
AXIS WILL LAY ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS RESULTS IN DRY
WEATHER WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND A FEW MORE DAYS OF MILD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER OVER SE UT AND SW CO THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES. THIS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA OVERNIGHT IN SE UT AND SW CO SOUTH OF KCNY-KGUC LINE AND GENERALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE LITTLE IMPACT ON KTEX AND KDRO
AT THE MOMENT THOUGH MTN TOPS SURROUNDING KTEX MAY BE BRIEFLY
OBSCURED AT TIMES TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...PF/15
LONG TERM...15/PF
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311401
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
801 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPDATED TO ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AT 8 AM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES MADE TO PACKAGE UPDATE.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH KPUB AND KLAA NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AS OF 330 AM.
ALTHOUGH THE FREEZE THIS MORNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE LONG
ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO BE A SEASON ENDING KILLING
FREEZE...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH OF THE AREA WILL HIT FREEZING TO
WARRANT MAINTAINING THE FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.  SFC WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WEST SIDE OF
SFC HIGH DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL ADVECT
COOLER AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS VS THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER AS A
RESULT.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE
WHEN COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.  MTN TOPS
SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS RESULT...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH FIRST
SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP AROUND 02-03Z ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN HIGH RES MODELS.  BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SEEMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND
11 KFT OVERNIGHT...AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS COULD
PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRES...AND THE
MOSQUITO AND LA GARITA RANGES TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
LEE TROFFING TO THE LEE OF THE SE MTS.  IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES
MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE LOWER SE MTS...THEN WARM OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE IMPACT SYSTEM WILL
HAVE ON THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY
HARD FREEZE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WESTERN LOCATIONS)
AS WELL AS UNSEASONABLY WARM EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AS TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. GRADIENT
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THEN AN UPPER SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO FROM
LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT MONDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN SECTIONS FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE NOTED OVER
THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS COLORADO AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW.

WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED THIS
WEEKEND(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

FINALLY...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS AT TIMES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME STRATUS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAINING CONFINED TO
AREAS FROM KLAA TO EADS AND EASTWARD.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KCOS...KALS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AROUND KLHX AND EASTWARD.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT FOR THE TAF SITES...THOUGH MTN TOP
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 20-30 KTS AND WEST WINDS 15-25
KTS WILL START TO SPREAD DOWN THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AFTER 06Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE SPINE OF COLORADO WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEVADA...MORE
DISCERNIBLE AT THE 300 MB LEVEL...REACHES WRN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
RADAR OBSERVATION SHOW WEAK DBZ RETURNS INDICATING THERE IS SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS DO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SW
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETIMES THIS IS OVERDONE AFTER A
PROLONG DRY PERIOD...BUT REASONABLE THAT SOME VIRGA SHAFTS WILL
EXIST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND. ANOTHER MILD DAY
EXPECTED...PERHAPS 1-3 DEGREES WARMING (EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS
SPREADING FROM THE WEST.)

STILL A DIFFICULT FORECAST COMING UP THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WHEN
THIS PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL BE TAKING A SHORT HIATUS. 00Z H5
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THAT THE
MODELS HAD BEEN PREDICTING. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL AID IN
FORMING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...WHERE
IT PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY/S FORECAST LOOKS
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO AND GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER SOME
DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT FUZZY. 305K THETA SURFACES CONTINUE TO
SHOW MOISTURE HEADING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SONORAN REGION
TODAY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE GULF AND PACIFIC CONVERGING
THERE THIS MORNING. WEAK UPGLIDE AND OROGRAPHICS LOOKS TO SPREAD
MOISTURE INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT OVERALL
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING AND FOCUSED WELL TO THE WEST.
SHOWERS APPEAR BEST ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET THAT FORMS
OVERNIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. POPS LOOK GOOD HERE. CROSS
SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADD SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO HELP
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO THINK IT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL NOT BE SATURATED.
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...BUT AIDED BY
STRONG MIXING AND REALIZED WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
STILL A 10 DEGREE SPLIT IN GUIDANCE AND GUT FEELING IS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE...BUT STAYED WITH GOING FORECAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BY LATE SATURDAY THE SPLIT IN THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT. EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER JET MAX BEGINS TO
REFORM ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND IT WILL REINFORCE WHAT
IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN SPLIT WITH UPSTREAM ENERGY. STILL NOT VERY
ACTIVE OUR CWA WITH LIFT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
FRONT PUSHING THOUGH AS THE TROUGH SPLITS AND BRINGS SOME CAA.
OROGRAPHICS SEEM THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT AND SHOULD KEEP SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER REMAIN
DRY. THE BIGGER PUSH BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS THE JET AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT SHIFTS OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  STRONG PV FROM THE JET
MOVING IN ALOFT REDUCES STATIC INSTABILITY...MOISTURE UNDER THIS
LAYER PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POPS LOOK GOOD THERE FOR NOW. THE MAIN FRONT
SHOULD BE HUNG UP TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST UTAH LATE IN THE DAY AND
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP IN THAT DIRECTION. IN THE MIDDLE ISOLATED
TO LOW CHANCE POPS SUFFICE FOR NOW UNTIL PICTURE CLEARS JUST A BIT
ON TIMING. TEMPERATURES DROP SOME 10 DEGREES WITH PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

MONDAY...COLD TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS (RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 5500 TO 6000
FEET). SHADED POPS TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE TO CORRECT FOR MODEL SPREAD
INHERENT IN THE INITIAL CONSENSUS POP FIELD. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE COLD TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION OVER OLD MEXICO AND TEXAS. WITH THE PACIFIC JET
REDEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...A WEST TO EAST RIDGE
AXIS WILL LAY ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS RESULTS IN DRY
WEATHER WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND A FEW MORE DAYS OF MILD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.

FOR SW COLORADO...ISOLATED VIRGA SHAFTS OR -SHRA WILL FORM AFTER
20Z THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED -SHRA AFTER 03Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/15
LONG TERM...15/PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH KPUB AND KLAA NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AS OF 330 AM.
ALTHOUGH THE FREEZE THIS MORNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE LONG
ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO BE A SEASON ENDING KILLING
FREEZE...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH OF THE AREA WILL HIT FREEZING TO
WARRANT MAINTAINING THE FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.  SFC WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WEST SIDE OF
SFC HIGH DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL ADVECT
COOLER AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS VS THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER AS A
RESULT.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE
WHEN COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.  MTN TOPS
SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS RESULT...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH FIRST
SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP AROUND 02-03Z ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN HIGH RES MODELS.  BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SEEMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND
11 KFT OVERNIGHT...AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS COULD
PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRES...AND THE
MOSQUITO AND LA GARITA RANGES TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
LEE TROFFING TO THE LEE OF THE SE MTS.  IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES
MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE LOWER SE MTS...THEN WARM OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE IMPACT SYSTEM WILL
HAVE ON THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY
HARD FREEZE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WESTERN LOCATIONS)
AS WELL AS UNSEASONABLY WARM EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AS TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. GRADIENT
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THEN AN UPPER SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO FROM
LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT MONDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN SECTIONS FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE NOTED OVER
THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS COLORADO AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW.

WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED THIS
WEEKEND(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

FINALLY...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS AT TIMES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME STRATUS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAINING CONFINED TO
AREAS FROM KLAA TO EADS AND EASTWARD.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KCOS...KALS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AROUND KLHX AND EASTWARD.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT FOR THE TAF SITES...THOUGH MTN TOP
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 20-30 KTS AND WEST WINDS 15-25
KTS WILL START TO SPREAD DOWN THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AFTER 06Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ085-086-089-
093-095>098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOU 311026
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
426 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL DELIVER ANOTHER DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLIP OVER THE RIDGE AND PRODUCE CIRRUS CLOUDS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER THING TO LOOK OUT FOR
IS SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING AN AREA OF STRATUS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALL NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD REACH SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES BY 6 AM. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS ARE DOWN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS...SO WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IF
STRATUS DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE VALLEY BETWEEN FORT MORGAN
AND GREELEY...THEN IT MAY GET DRAWN INTO THE NORTHERN DENVER METRO
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO INDUCE A DENVER CYCLONE WHICH WILL
KEEP ADVECTING COOL AIR FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE
FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON HIGHS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING SHOULD SEE NO IMPACT FROM THE
WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES COOL FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LATE EVENING READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WRN US ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THIS LEAVES NRN CO IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN.  WITH
DECENT LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A SFC LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  THUS SHOULD SEE WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH READINGS RANGING FM THE MID TO UPPER
60S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

ON SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL SPLIT AS ONE
PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS NNE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE A SECOND
PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAVE NRN CO
IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE MTNS.
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH SOME MINOR MID LVL ASCENT BY AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE MTNS AND HIGHR VALLEYS. OVER
NERN CO THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY
A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA NR THE WY BORDER BY LATE AFTN. AS FOR HIGHS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SLIGHT COOLING IN THE 850-700
MB LYR WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  COMBINATION
OF MID LVL ASCENT AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS.  OROGRAPHICS ARE WK THRU
THE PERIOD SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY STAY GENERALLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES COULD RECEIVE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS.  OVER NERN CO A COLD FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO AROUND 700 MB BASED
ON CURRENT GFS.  AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL
ASCENT MOVE ACROSS ON MON ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHC
OF PCPN IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
WELL.  SOUNDINGS FM THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE PCPN FALLING MOSTLY AS SNOW
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON MON WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER AND KEEPS PCPN
MOSTLY RAIN.  AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE COLDER IF ECMWF IS
CORRECT.

BY MON NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH PCPN ENDING EARLY MON EVENING IN MOST AREAS.  BY TUE DRIER
AIR IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PCPN.  WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER NERN CO.

FOR WED AND THU A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 5 DEGEES ON
WED AND THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON THU.  THUS HIGHS SHOULD RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER NERN CO ON WED AND THEN FROM 65 TO 70
ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN DRAINAGE
SOUTHERLIES AND EASTERLIES AS A DENVER CYCLONE TRIES TO DEVELOP.
LATER TODAY SHOULD SEE THE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST...AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE MATURES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE CURRENTLY
LARGE ENOUGH THAT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...COOLER
AND MOISTER AIR IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY...IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY FROM BETWEEN GREELEY AND FORT MORGAN EASTWARD. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER
VALLEY AND THEN MOVE INTO KDEN FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF VCFG IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311013
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE SPINE OF COLORADO WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEVADA...MORE
DISCERNIBLE AT THE 300 MB LEVEL...REACHES WRN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
RADAR OBSERVATION SHOW WEAK DBZ RETURNS INDICATING THERE IS SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS DO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SW
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETIMES THIS IS OVERDONE AFTER A
PROLONG DRY PERIOD...BUT REASONABLE THAT SOME VIRGA SHAFTS WILL
EXIST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND. ANOTHER MILD DAY
EXPECTED...PERHAPS 1-3 DEGREES WARMING (EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS
SPREADING FROM THE WEST.)

STILL A DIFFICULT FORECAST COMING UP THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WHEN
THIS PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL BE TAKING A SHORT HIATUS. 00Z H5
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THAT THE
MODELS HAD BEEN PREDICTING. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL AID IN
FORMING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...WHERE
IT PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY/S FORECAST LOOKS
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO AND GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER SOME
DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT FUZZY. 305K THETA SURFACES CONTINUE TO
SHOW MOISTURE HEADING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SONORAN REGION
TODAY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE GULF AND PACIFIC CONVERGING
THERE THIS MORNING. WEAK UPGLIDE AND OROGRAPHICS LOOKS TO SPREAD
MOISTURE INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT OVERALL
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING AND FOCUSED WELL TO THE WEST.
SHOWERS APPEAR BEST ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET THAT FORMS
OVERNIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. POPS LOOK GOOD HERE. CROSS
SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADD SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO HELP
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO THINK IT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL NOT BE SATURATED.
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...BUT AIDED BY
STRONG MIXING AND REALIZED WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
STILL A 10 DEGREE SPLIT IN GUIDANCE AND GUT FEELING IS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE...BUT STAYED WITH GOING FORECAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BY LATE SATURDAY THE SPLIT IN THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT. EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER JET MAX BEGINS TO
REFORM ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND IT WILL REINFORCE WHAT
IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN SPLIT WITH UPSTREAM ENERGY. STILL NOT VERY
ACTIVE OUR CWA WITH LIFT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
FRONT PUSHING THOUGH AS THE TROUGH SPLITS AND BRINGS SOME CAA.
OROGRAPHICS SEEM THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT AND SHOULD KEEP SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER REMAIN
DRY. THE BIGGER PUSH BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS THE JET AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT SHIFTS OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  STRONG PV FROM THE JET
MOVING IN ALOFT REDUCES STATIC INSTABILITY...MOISTURE UNDER THIS
LAYER PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POPS LOOK GOOD THERE FOR NOW. THE MAIN FRONT
SHOULD BE HUNG UP TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST UTAH LATE IN THE DAY AND
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP IN THAT DIRECTION. IN THE MIDDLE ISOLATED
TO LOW CHANCE POPS SUFFICE FOR NOW UNTIL PICTURE CLEARS JUST A BIT
ON TIMING. TEMPERATURES DROP SOME 10 DEGREES WITH PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

MONDAY...COLD TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS (RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 5500 TO 6000
FEET). SHADED POPS TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE TO CORRECT FOR MODEL SPREAD
INHERENT IN THE INITIAL CONSENSUS POP FIELD. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE COLD TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION OVER OLD MEXICO AND TEXAS. WITH THE PACIFIC JET
REDEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...A WEST TO EAST RIDGE
AXIS WILL LAY ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS RESULTS IN DRY
WEATHER WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND A FEW MORE DAYS OF MILD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. LOCALLY GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/15
LONG TERM...15/PF
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 310515
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO TONIGHT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW
TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...WILL FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WILL HOIST A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE ZONES...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A HARD
FREEZE...AS VERY LOW MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK TOO COLD...WITH BIAS
CORRECTED AND BLENDED GUIDANCE LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. COLDEST SPOTS ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER AROUND
KPUB AND KLAA AIRPORTS. FARTHER WEST...MOST MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
VALLEYS WILL FALL IN THE 20S AND 30S ONCE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY...E-SE WINDS WILL FEED SEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE PLAINS
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...KEEPING MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THU. MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY VERY MINOR
COOLING AS HEIGHTS/MID LEVEL TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EAST. WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE LOOK LIKELY EAST OF I-25 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON AREA SAN JUAN PEAKS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING
NORTH ALONG ALL OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE WARM WITH 70S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPLIT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY PALMER DIVIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAVE STARTED TO
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY. CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MODELS DEVELOPING A ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF EASTERLY
UPSLOPE...HAVE A FEELING A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON
RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7 KFT LIMITING
ANY SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FIRST HARD FREEZE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MID 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT THE
REGION UNDER BROAD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE WITH 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AT
KCOS...WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ085-086-089-093-
095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 310419
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1019 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND WILL BE ROLLING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD MIN TEMPS UP A BIT. GENERAL FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE STRONG GREAT
BASIN RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN CO TONIGHT. THE RIDGELINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST AND CROSS FROM UT TO CO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN AZ FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEING DRAWN NORTH BY A WEAK TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SAN JUANS...REACHING THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRECIPITATION RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANTICIPATE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD...HOWEVER...IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY UNDER INCREASING
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE
CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT BASIN AND AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS IDAHO WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS UT SATURDAY...AND 12Z MODELS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING ERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WRN CO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WAS FASTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS SHOWED A FEW
DAYS AGO. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP NE UT/NW CO
SUNDAY AND GIVE THE FRONT ANOTHER EASTWARD PUSH...BUT TIMING LIKELY
TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED WAVES. DID BOOST POPS A NOTCH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BUT DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THE CURRENT TIMING IN THE FORECAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AS LOW AS
CRAIG/MEEKER/VERNAL/DURANGO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THE 500 MB TROUGH NOT PASSING UNTIL
MONDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MAINLY
FOR THE CO MTNS. TREND IS THEN FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. LOCALLY GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 310419
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1019 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND WILL BE ROLLING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD MIN TEMPS UP A BIT. GENERAL FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE STRONG GREAT
BASIN RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN CO TONIGHT. THE RIDGELINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST AND CROSS FROM UT TO CO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN AZ FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEING DRAWN NORTH BY A WEAK TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SAN JUANS...REACHING THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRECIPITATION RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANTICIPATE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD...HOWEVER...IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY UNDER INCREASING
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE
CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT BASIN AND AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS IDAHO WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS UT SATURDAY...AND 12Z MODELS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING ERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WRN CO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WAS FASTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS SHOWED A FEW
DAYS AGO. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP NE UT/NW CO
SUNDAY AND GIVE THE FRONT ANOTHER EASTWARD PUSH...BUT TIMING LIKELY
TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED WAVES. DID BOOST POPS A NOTCH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BUT DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THE CURRENT TIMING IN THE FORECAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AS LOW AS
CRAIG/MEEKER/VERNAL/DURANGO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THE 500 MB TROUGH NOT PASSING UNTIL
MONDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MAINLY
FOR THE CO MTNS. TREND IS THEN FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. LOCALLY GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 310232
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
832 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PUSH A SHALLOW AND COOL AIRMASS INTO EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.
AIRMASS WILL BE UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET MSL...SO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL BE ABOVE THIS COOLER AIR. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FRONT
RANGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SPREAD THE
PATCHY FOG FARTHER WEST AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT NOW. WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS ARE COVERING MOST
OF THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS SHOW AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY. FOR MOISTURE...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS. THERE
IS TAD HERE AND THERE IN UPPER LEVELS AS WELL. WILL LEAVE THE FOG
IN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GFE GRIDS.
THERE IS NOTHING ON THE QPF FIELDS. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS...MAYBE
A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS AS COOL SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BOUNCE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER
THE WEST PULLS IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE KEEPING TEMPERATURES MODERATED BUT STILL
WARM.

FOR SUNDAY...THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TO SPLIT INTO A NE TO SW DIRECTION. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
CHALLENGING WITH THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS IT SEEMS
THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GRAPPLING WITH THE SPLIT JET AND
ENERGY. BOTH MODELS HAVE A LEE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN KEEPING THE BRUNT OF THE
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WOULD GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH 60S FOR
THE PLAINS.

WEATHER INTO MONDAY MORNING DIFFERS WITH THE MODELS AS THE EC IS
DEEPER WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN NM WITH THE GFS
BEING FASTER. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL
STAY MODEST ON EXACT AMOUNTS AND TYPE UNTIL MODELS ALIGN
BETTER...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING LEAVING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND OCCASIONALLY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z. A DENVER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY 12Z...MAKING
THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST CHALLENGING. APPEARS WINDS MAY TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. THIS COULD ALSO PULL IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR
FOG WILL BE FROM 11-16Z. THE COOL MOIST LAYER IS SHALLOW. SO IF
ANY LOW CLOUDS FORM...EXPECT THEM TO BE UNDER 1000 FEET.
VISIBILITY IN FOG COULD DROP TO A QUARTER MILE IF IT IS ABLE TO
MIGRATE FAR ENOUGH WEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302317
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
517 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE STRONG GREAT
BASIN RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN CO TONIGHT. THE RIDGELINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST AND CROSS FROM UT TO CO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN AZ FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEING DRAWN NORTH BY A WEAK TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SAN JUANS...REACHING THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRECIPITATION RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANTICIPATE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD...HOWEVER...IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY UNDER INCREASING
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE
CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT BASIN AND AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS IDAHO WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS UT SATURDAY...AND 12Z MODELS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING ERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WRN CO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WAS FASTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS SHOWED A FEW
DAYS AGO. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP NE UT/NW CO
SUNDAY AND GIVE THE FRONT ANOTHER EASTWARD PUSH...BUT TIMING LIKELY
TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED WAVES. DID BOOST POPS A NOTCH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BUT DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THE CURRENT TIMING IN THE FORECAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AS LOW AS
CRAIG/MEEKER/VERNAL/DURANGO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THE 500 MB TROUGH NOT PASSING UNTIL
MONDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MAINLY
FOR THE CO MTNS. TREND IS THEN FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 19Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 302150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT NOW. WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS ARE COVERING MOST
OF THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS SHOW AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY. FOR MOISTURE...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS. THERE
IS TAD HERE AND THERE IN UPPER LEVELS AS WELL. WILL LEAVE THE FOG
IN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GFE GRIDS.
THERE IS NOTHING ON THE QPF FIELDS. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS...MAYBE
A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS AS COOL SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BOUNCE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER
THE WEST PULLS IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE KEEPING TEMPERATURES MODERATED BUT STILL
WARM.

FOR SUNDAY...THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TO SPLIT INTO A NE TO SW DIRECTION. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
CHALLENGING WITH THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS IT SEEMS
THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GRAPPLING WITH THE SPLIT JET AND
ENERGY. BOTH MODELS HAVE A LEE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN KEEPING THE BRUNT OF THE
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WOULD GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH 60S FOR
THE PLAINS.

WEATHER INTO MONDAY MORNING DIFFERS WITH THE MODELS AS THE EC IS
DEEPER WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN NM WITH THE GFS
BEING FASTER. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL
STAY MODEST ON EXACT AMOUNTS AND TYPE UNTIL MODELS ALIGN
BETTER...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING LEAVING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OVER DIA AT THIS TIME. MODELS KEEP
SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO ALL
NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG. NOT CERTAIN IF
THAT FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GET DIA.
WILL OPT WITH A WEAKER THAN NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN AND NO
LOWS CLOUDS OR FOG AT THIS TIME. ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A
DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP AND DEPENDING ON IT`S CENTER...WIND
DIRECTION FORECASTS COULD BE TRICKY FOR THE BOG AIRPORT. WHAT ELSE
IS NEW?

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 302150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT NOW. WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS ARE COVERING MOST
OF THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS SHOW AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY. FOR MOISTURE...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS. THERE
IS TAD HERE AND THERE IN UPPER LEVELS AS WELL. WILL LEAVE THE FOG
IN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GFE GRIDS.
THERE IS NOTHING ON THE QPF FIELDS. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS...MAYBE
A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS AS COOL SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BOUNCE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER
THE WEST PULLS IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE KEEPING TEMPERATURES MODERATED BUT STILL
WARM.

FOR SUNDAY...THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
GREAT BASIN REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TO SPLIT INTO A NE TO SW DIRECTION. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
CHALLENGING WITH THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS IT SEEMS
THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GRAPPLING WITH THE SPLIT JET AND
ENERGY. BOTH MODELS HAVE A LEE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN KEEPING THE BRUNT OF THE
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WOULD GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH 60S FOR
THE PLAINS.

WEATHER INTO MONDAY MORNING DIFFERS WITH THE MODELS AS THE EC IS
DEEPER WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN NM WITH THE GFS
BEING FASTER. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL
STAY MODEST ON EXACT AMOUNTS AND TYPE UNTIL MODELS ALIGN
BETTER...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING LEAVING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OVER DIA AT THIS TIME. MODELS KEEP
SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO ALL
NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG. NOT CERTAIN IF
THAT FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GET DIA.
WILL OPT WITH A WEAKER THAN NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN AND NO
LOWS CLOUDS OR FOG AT THIS TIME. ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A
DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP AND DEPENDING ON IT`S CENTER...WIND
DIRECTION FORECASTS COULD BE TRICKY FOR THE BOG AIRPORT. WHAT ELSE
IS NEW?

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KPUB 302101
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO TONIGHT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW
TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...WILL FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WILL HOIST A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE ZONES...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A HARD
FREEZE...AS VERY LOW MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK TOO COLD...WITH BIAS
CORRECTED AND BLENDED GUIDANCE LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. COLDEST SPOTS ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER AROUND
KPUB AND KLAA AIRPORTS. FARTHER WEST...MOST MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
VALLEYS WILL FALL IN THE 20S AND 30S ONCE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY...E-SE WINDS WILL FEED SEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE PLAINS
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...KEEPING MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THU. MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY VERY MINOR
COOLING AS HEIGHTS/MID LEVEL TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EAST. WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE LOOK LIKELY EAST OF I-25 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON AREA SAN JUAN PEAKS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING
NORTH ALONG ALL OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE WARM WITH 70S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPLIT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY PALMER DIVIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAVE STARTED TO
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY. CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MODELS DEVELOPING A ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF EASTERLY
UPSLOPE...HAVE A FEELING A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON
RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7 KFT LIMITING
ANY SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FIRST HARD FREEZE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MID 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT THE
REGION UNDER BROAD DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE WITH 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
MAY BE SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY FRI
MORNING...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS KLAA TOWARD
SUNRISE...BUT ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY WELL EAST OF KPUB AND KCOS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRI AFTER
18Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ085-086-089-
093-095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302049
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE STRONG GREAT
BASIN RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN CO TONIGHT. THE RIDGELINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST AND CROSS FROM UT TO CO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN AZ FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEING DRAWN NORTH BY A WEAK TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SAN JUANS...REACHING THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRECIPITATION RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANTICIPATE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD...HOWEVER...IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY UNDER INCREASING
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE
CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT BASIN AND AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS IDAHO WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS UT SATURDAY...AND 12Z MODELS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING ERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WRN CO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WAS FASTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS SHOWED A FEW
DAYS AGO. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP NE UT/NW CO
SUNDAY AND GIVE THE FRONT ANOTHER EASTWARD PUSH...BUT TIMING LIKELY
TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED WAVES. DID BOOST POPS A NOTCH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BUT DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THE CURRENT TIMING IN THE FORECAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AS LOW AS
CRAIG/MEEKER/VERNAL/DURANGO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THE 500 MB TROUGH NOT PASSING UNTIL
MONDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MAINLY
FOR THE CO MTNS. TREND IS THEN FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301746
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WAS
KEEPING CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC OBS INDICATING A NORTHERLY SHIFT IN WINDS FOR SITES ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE PALMER DVD. TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
FOR THE PLAINS...20S AND 30S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS COLORADO
TODAY...CONTINUING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AM WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS IN THE 60S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SNOWFALL FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
WINDY ELSEWHERE...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL START TO INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROF
ENTERING THE WEST COAST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO BACK INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

CHANGES START TO COME IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CA WEAKENS AND EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE TROF MOVING INLAND ACROSS CA/NV/OR AND WA. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL START TO SPREAD SHOWERS
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY WITHIN THE WESTERN U.S. TROF
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. INITIALLY MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP SO ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY...BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP DEW POINTS ON THE HIGH SIDE
SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
MET. MEANWHILE...LAPSE RATES LOOK STEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION
OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 10-11KFT.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW APPEARS TO COME IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WESTERN U.S. TROF KEEPS STRONG SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
NAM12 AND GFS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WHILE
ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER WITH THE SECONDARY DEVELOPING
TROF/CLOSED LOW ACROSS NV. FORECAST FAVORS THE NAM12 AND GFS SOLNS FOR
NOW DUE TO BETTER CONSENSUS. AS THE UPPER JET TRANSLATES IN SAT
NIGHT...SNOW REALLY CRANKS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...AND WINDS AT THE PASS AND PEAK LEVELS COULD BE QUITE
STRONG. NAM12 AND GFS SUGGEST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT STANDS
NOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES COULD FALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS WILL SEE MAINLY WIND FROM THIS EVENT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS ON SUNDAY COULD CONCEPTUALLY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...THOUGH FOR
NOW THEY APPEAR TO COME UP JUST SHY OF THE REQUIRED 15 PERCENT OR
LOWER FOR A RED FLAG. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

UPPER TROF TRAILS ACROSS CO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SENDING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WHILE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER TROF
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN...ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN AZ/NM BY 00Z TUES. EITHER WAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. WITH BRUNT OF THE FORCING
PASSING TO THE SOUTH...PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA APPEARS
LIGHT...AND SEEMS DRIVEN MORE BY SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...MODELS ARE STILL VARYING RUN TO RUN WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO SUSPECT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME FORECAST CHANGES UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS RESOLVED BETTER.
HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE A GOOD
COOL DOWN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LIKELY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD
HARD FREEZE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301746
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WAS
KEEPING CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC OBS INDICATING A NORTHERLY SHIFT IN WINDS FOR SITES ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE PALMER DVD. TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
FOR THE PLAINS...20S AND 30S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS COLORADO
TODAY...CONTINUING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AM WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS IN THE 60S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SNOWFALL FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
WINDY ELSEWHERE...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL START TO INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROF
ENTERING THE WEST COAST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO BACK INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

CHANGES START TO COME IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CA WEAKENS AND EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE TROF MOVING INLAND ACROSS CA/NV/OR AND WA. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL START TO SPREAD SHOWERS
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY WITHIN THE WESTERN U.S. TROF
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. INITIALLY MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP SO ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY...BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP DEW POINTS ON THE HIGH SIDE
SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
MET. MEANWHILE...LAPSE RATES LOOK STEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION
OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 10-11KFT.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW APPEARS TO COME IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WESTERN U.S. TROF KEEPS STRONG SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
NAM12 AND GFS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WHILE
ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER WITH THE SECONDARY DEVELOPING
TROF/CLOSED LOW ACROSS NV. FORECAST FAVORS THE NAM12 AND GFS SOLNS FOR
NOW DUE TO BETTER CONSENSUS. AS THE UPPER JET TRANSLATES IN SAT
NIGHT...SNOW REALLY CRANKS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...AND WINDS AT THE PASS AND PEAK LEVELS COULD BE QUITE
STRONG. NAM12 AND GFS SUGGEST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT STANDS
NOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES COULD FALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS WILL SEE MAINLY WIND FROM THIS EVENT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS ON SUNDAY COULD CONCEPTUALLY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...THOUGH FOR
NOW THEY APPEAR TO COME UP JUST SHY OF THE REQUIRED 15 PERCENT OR
LOWER FOR A RED FLAG. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

UPPER TROF TRAILS ACROSS CO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SENDING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WHILE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER TROF
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN...ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN AZ/NM BY 00Z TUES. EITHER WAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. WITH BRUNT OF THE FORCING
PASSING TO THE SOUTH...PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA APPEARS
LIGHT...AND SEEMS DRIVEN MORE BY SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...MODELS ARE STILL VARYING RUN TO RUN WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO SUSPECT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME FORECAST CHANGES UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS RESOLVED BETTER.
HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE A GOOD
COOL DOWN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LIKELY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD
HARD FREEZE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301650
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1050 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ARE PRETTY WEAK IN MOST AREAS AS WELL. LITTLE TO CHANGE RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH
THE SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL ADVECTION. THERE WERE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND IN THE COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD SEE SOME
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
NICELY AND LARGELY WENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. MOST PLACE THAT WILL
SEE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE ALREADY REACHED END OF
GROWING SEASON CRITERIA OF 28F OR COLDER SO NO FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING ON SUNDAY DUE
TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES...DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT BASIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS INCREASING.

FOR MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EACH HAVE A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
AS IT MOVES OVER COLORADO. THE ECMWF HAS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
SOLUTION...WHICH INCLUDES A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY THAT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS STAY CLOSER TO EACH OTHER WITH THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH SOME ENERGY HANGING BACK OVER NEW MEXICO.
EITHER SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THAT IT IS HARD TO TELL WHICH SOLUTION WILL COME TO PASS...THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW PERCENTAGE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION  ALONG WITH THE  COOLEST TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER COLORADO
BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT DIA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST MODELS STILL POINT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY 21Z. NORMAL
DRAINAGE PATTERNS TONIGHT ARE NOT CUT AND DRY...BUT SHOULD
PREVAIL EVENTUALLY LATER THIS EVENING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKER THAN NORMAL. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES THE REST OF
THE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301650
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1050 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ARE PRETTY WEAK IN MOST AREAS AS WELL. LITTLE TO CHANGE RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH
THE SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL ADVECTION. THERE WERE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND IN THE COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD SEE SOME
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
NICELY AND LARGELY WENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. MOST PLACE THAT WILL
SEE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE ALREADY REACHED END OF
GROWING SEASON CRITERIA OF 28F OR COLDER SO NO FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING ON SUNDAY DUE
TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES...DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT BASIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS INCREASING.

FOR MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EACH HAVE A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
AS IT MOVES OVER COLORADO. THE ECMWF HAS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
SOLUTION...WHICH INCLUDES A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY THAT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS STAY CLOSER TO EACH OTHER WITH THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH SOME ENERGY HANGING BACK OVER NEW MEXICO.
EITHER SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THAT IT IS HARD TO TELL WHICH SOLUTION WILL COME TO PASS...THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW PERCENTAGE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION  ALONG WITH THE  COOLEST TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER COLORADO
BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT DIA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST MODELS STILL POINT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY 21Z. NORMAL
DRAINAGE PATTERNS TONIGHT ARE NOT CUT AND DRY...BUT SHOULD
PREVAIL EVENTUALLY LATER THIS EVENING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKER THAN NORMAL. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES THE REST OF
THE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301633
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.

NO SURPRISES IN THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING IT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THIS SUBTLE SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO A RATHER
STRONG...ELONGATED TROUGH ARRIVING TO THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS.
THE ANTI CYCLONIC CENTER OF THE RIDGE WAS HAND ANALYZED AT 00Z
NEAR THE AZ/NM AND MEXICO BORDER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND
TRANSLATES EAST THIS CIRCULATION SHIFTS TO THE LOWER RIO GRAND
VALLEY. 305K THETA SURFACE SHOW MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THIS REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN GULF DUE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
SETTLING INTO THIS REGION. THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE 4 CORNERS BY LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL ONLY BE NOTICEABLE BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL JET. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO MORE
ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THIS WEEKEND. PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 0.65 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH
FOR LATE OCTOBER IS AT LEAST 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS INITIALLY LACKING WITH QG FORCING FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS AND MOIST UPGLIDE WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE QG FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BUT INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...WITH THE TERRAIN STILL FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN WINDS
WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT ON SATURDAY AS THE INSTABILITY AIDS IN
MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS MIXING LOOKS TO ADD
SOME DRY AIR INTO THE PICTURE AND MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD A
DOWNTREND IN QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WAS WAVERING WITH PWAT AS HIGH AS IT
IS. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THESE PERIODS AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PLOW
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. SNOW LEVELS ARE INDICATED TO FALL TO
NEAR 7500 WITH FROPA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. BOTH MODELS GENERATE A
SPLIT IN THE FLOW EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON IN THE COL BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN FLOW AND THE SOUTHERN LOW ON MONDAY BEFORE DRYING
ARRIVES TUESDAY. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE WEST. EXPECT MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF FROPA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15/NL
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301633
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.

NO SURPRISES IN THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING IT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THIS SUBTLE SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO A RATHER
STRONG...ELONGATED TROUGH ARRIVING TO THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS.
THE ANTI CYCLONIC CENTER OF THE RIDGE WAS HAND ANALYZED AT 00Z
NEAR THE AZ/NM AND MEXICO BORDER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND
TRANSLATES EAST THIS CIRCULATION SHIFTS TO THE LOWER RIO GRAND
VALLEY. 305K THETA SURFACE SHOW MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THIS REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN GULF DUE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
SETTLING INTO THIS REGION. THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE 4 CORNERS BY LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL ONLY BE NOTICEABLE BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL JET. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO MORE
ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THIS WEEKEND. PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 0.65 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH
FOR LATE OCTOBER IS AT LEAST 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS INITIALLY LACKING WITH QG FORCING FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS AND MOIST UPGLIDE WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE QG FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BUT INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...WITH THE TERRAIN STILL FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN WINDS
WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT ON SATURDAY AS THE INSTABILITY AIDS IN
MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS MIXING LOOKS TO ADD
SOME DRY AIR INTO THE PICTURE AND MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD A
DOWNTREND IN QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WAS WAVERING WITH PWAT AS HIGH AS IT
IS. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THESE PERIODS AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PLOW
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. SNOW LEVELS ARE INDICATED TO FALL TO
NEAR 7500 WITH FROPA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. BOTH MODELS GENERATE A
SPLIT IN THE FLOW EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON IN THE COL BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN FLOW AND THE SOUTHERN LOW ON MONDAY BEFORE DRYING
ARRIVES TUESDAY. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE WEST. EXPECT MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF FROPA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15/NL
AVIATION...CC




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