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000
FXUS65 KGJT 300609
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1109 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS
SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW
CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTH AND WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS PRECIPITATION
AND LOWERING CLOUDS/VISIBILITY PRODUCE INCREASED AREAS OF MVFR
AND EVEN OF IFR CONDITIONS. THESE POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PERSIST FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED FIRST...WITH OTHER TAF SITES ALSO
AFFECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO
BECOME WIDESPREAD...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 300609
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1109 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS
SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW
CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTH AND WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS PRECIPITATION
AND LOWERING CLOUDS/VISIBILITY PRODUCE INCREASED AREAS OF MVFR
AND EVEN OF IFR CONDITIONS. THESE POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PERSIST FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERN
TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED FIRST...WITH OTHER TAF SITES ALSO
AFFECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO
BECOME WIDESPREAD...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPUB 300536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR KALS....SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT WILL CAUSE LOWER CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY.

FOR KCOS...THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TOMORROW
LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVING IN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS AND PRECIP LEADING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

FOR KPUB...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
LOWER CIGS LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR KALS....SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT WILL CAUSE LOWER CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY.

FOR KCOS...THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TOMORROW
LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVING IN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS AND PRECIP LEADING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

FOR KPUB...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
LOWER CIGS LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR KALS....SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT WILL CAUSE LOWER CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY.

FOR KCOS...THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TOMORROW
LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVING IN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS AND PRECIP LEADING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

FOR KPUB...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
LOWER CIGS LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR KALS....SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT WILL CAUSE LOWER CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY.

FOR KCOS...THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TOMORROW
LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVING IN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS AND PRECIP LEADING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

FOR KPUB...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
LOWER CIGS LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 300423
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS...MAINLY AT HIGH-LEVELS...ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING.
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA. THEN
STEERING WINDS ALOFT BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SWLY IN DIRECTION ON
FRIDAY WHICH DRIVES DEEPER MOISTURE UP FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
THIS IS A MILD FLOW...SO AS SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT HIGH...SAY UP AROUND
9500-10000 FEET ASL. HOWEVER A REVERSAL IN THE 850-700MB FLOW TO A
NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL SEND TEMPS
DOWNWARD CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP. THE LATEST NAM NOW INDICATES
EVEN GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE DENVER METRO AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
ALL FCST FIELDS OUT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO BETTER REFLECT
LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS INCLUDES NUDGING UP FRI NIGHT POPS AND
ADDING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IN THE DENVER METRO AREA. KEEP IN
MIND FINAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALL
BUT DISAPPEARED AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE
CWA AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO NETWORK RADARS. THE WIND FIELD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FEATURES PRETTY WEAK FLOW WITH NO UNIFORMITY IN
DIRECTION. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER COLORADO SLIDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW DECREASES
SLOWLY IN SPEED AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS DRY THIS
EVENING...THEN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY APPROACH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH THE ADVANCING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE QPF FIELDS BRING A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...THERE IS A TAD PROGGED OVER ALL THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 30-50%S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE PLAINS...THERE/S MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT...BUT NO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NO HELP FROM OROGRAPHICS.
SO NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE
THE SYSTEM MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR...PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM TRACE OVER THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TO POSSIBLY UP
TO 3 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
OVER COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD
RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND BEING OUT IN DAY SEVEN
HAVE ONLY ADDED 10 POPS AT THIS TIME.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CLOUD CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE
PERIOD. BY FRIDAY EVENING CIGS OVER THE METRO AREA COULD DROP TO
AS LOW AS 4000-5000 FT AGL AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA. BY MID TO LATE EVENING...
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA...INCLUDING KDEN AND KAPA
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 2000-3000 FT AGL.
SNOW INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT GREAT. VSBYS MAY NOT
FALL MUCH BELOW 2 MILES AT KDEN PRIOR TO 06Z/SATURDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 300423
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS...MAINLY AT HIGH-LEVELS...ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING.
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA. THEN
STEERING WINDS ALOFT BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SWLY IN DIRECTION ON
FRIDAY WHICH DRIVES DEEPER MOISTURE UP FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
THIS IS A MILD FLOW...SO AS SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT HIGH...SAY UP AROUND
9500-10000 FEET ASL. HOWEVER A REVERSAL IN THE 850-700MB FLOW TO A
NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL SEND TEMPS
DOWNWARD CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP. THE LATEST NAM NOW INDICATES
EVEN GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE DENVER METRO AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
ALL FCST FIELDS OUT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO BETTER REFLECT
LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS INCLUDES NUDGING UP FRI NIGHT POPS AND
ADDING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IN THE DENVER METRO AREA. KEEP IN
MIND FINAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALL
BUT DISAPPEARED AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE
CWA AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO NETWORK RADARS. THE WIND FIELD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FEATURES PRETTY WEAK FLOW WITH NO UNIFORMITY IN
DIRECTION. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER COLORADO SLIDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW DECREASES
SLOWLY IN SPEED AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS DRY THIS
EVENING...THEN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY APPROACH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH THE ADVANCING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE QPF FIELDS BRING A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...THERE IS A TAD PROGGED OVER ALL THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 30-50%S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE PLAINS...THERE/S MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT...BUT NO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NO HELP FROM OROGRAPHICS.
SO NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE
THE SYSTEM MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR...PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM TRACE OVER THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TO POSSIBLY UP
TO 3 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
OVER COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD
RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND BEING OUT IN DAY SEVEN
HAVE ONLY ADDED 10 POPS AT THIS TIME.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CLOUD CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE
PERIOD. BY FRIDAY EVENING CIGS OVER THE METRO AREA COULD DROP TO
AS LOW AS 4000-5000 FT AGL AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA. BY MID TO LATE EVENING...
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA...INCLUDING KDEN AND KAPA
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 2000-3000 FT AGL.
SNOW INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT GREAT. VSBYS MAY NOT
FALL MUCH BELOW 2 MILES AT KDEN PRIOR TO 06Z/SATURDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 292344
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
444 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS
SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW
CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING THOUGH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THE PRECIP SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...07Z...CHANCES WILL START INCREASING FOR VCSH MANY
TAF SITES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER. THIS TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z OR SO WITH SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING WITH VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR JUST ABOUT ALL TAF SITES WITH MORE PREDOMINANT
RAIN/SNOW STARTING AROUND 21Z OR SO. FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM THERE
ON OUT WILL VARY FROM MVFR/IFR FROM TIME TO TIME UNDER LOW CIGS
AND VIS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 292344
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
444 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS
SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW
CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING THOUGH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THE PRECIP SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...07Z...CHANCES WILL START INCREASING FOR VCSH MANY
TAF SITES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER. THIS TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z OR SO WITH SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING WITH VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR JUST ABOUT ALL TAF SITES WITH MORE PREDOMINANT
RAIN/SNOW STARTING AROUND 21Z OR SO. FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM THERE
ON OUT WILL VARY FROM MVFR/IFR FROM TIME TO TIME UNDER LOW CIGS
AND VIS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KBOU 292327 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
255 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALL
BUT DISAPPEARED AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE
CWA AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO NETWORK RADARS. THE WIND FIELD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FEATURES PRETTY WEAK FLOW WITH NO UNIFORMITY IN
DIRECTION. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER COLORADO SLIDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW DECREASES
SLOWLY IN SPEED AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS DRY THIS
EVENING...THEN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY APPROACH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH THE ADVANCING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE QPF FIELDS BRING A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...THERE IS A TAD PROGGED OVER ALL THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 30-50%S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE PLAINS...THERE/S MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT...BUT NO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NO HELP FROM OROGRAPHICS.
SO NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE
THE SYSTEM MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR...PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM TRACE OVER THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TO POSSIBLY UP
TO 3 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
OVER COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD
RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND BEING OUT IN DAY SEVEN
HAVE ONLY ADDED 10 POPS AT THIS TIME.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOWER/MID CEILINGS ARE GONE AT DIA AND THEY WILL STAY AWAY.
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GO TO REAL DRAINAGE BY 02-03Z THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 292327 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
255 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALL
BUT DISAPPEARED AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE
CWA AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO NETWORK RADARS. THE WIND FIELD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FEATURES PRETTY WEAK FLOW WITH NO UNIFORMITY IN
DIRECTION. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER COLORADO SLIDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW DECREASES
SLOWLY IN SPEED AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS DRY THIS
EVENING...THEN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY APPROACH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH THE ADVANCING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE QPF FIELDS BRING A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...THERE IS A TAD PROGGED OVER ALL THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 30-50%S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE PLAINS...THERE/S MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT...BUT NO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NO HELP FROM OROGRAPHICS.
SO NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE
THE SYSTEM MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR...PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM TRACE OVER THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TO POSSIBLY UP
TO 3 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
OVER COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD
RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND BEING OUT IN DAY SEVEN
HAVE ONLY ADDED 10 POPS AT THIS TIME.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOWER/MID CEILINGS ARE GONE AT DIA AND THEY WILL STAY AWAY.
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GO TO REAL DRAINAGE BY 02-03Z THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 292327 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
255 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALL
BUT DISAPPEARED AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE
CWA AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO NETWORK RADARS. THE WIND FIELD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FEATURES PRETTY WEAK FLOW WITH NO UNIFORMITY IN
DIRECTION. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER COLORADO SLIDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW DECREASES
SLOWLY IN SPEED AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS DRY THIS
EVENING...THEN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY APPROACH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH THE ADVANCING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE QPF FIELDS BRING A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...THERE IS A TAD PROGGED OVER ALL THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 30-50%S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE PLAINS...THERE/S MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT...BUT NO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NO HELP FROM OROGRAPHICS.
SO NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE
THE SYSTEM MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR...PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM TRACE OVER THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TO POSSIBLY UP
TO 3 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
OVER COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD
RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND BEING OUT IN DAY SEVEN
HAVE ONLY ADDED 10 POPS AT THIS TIME.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOWER/MID CEILINGS ARE GONE AT DIA AND THEY WILL STAY AWAY.
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GO TO REAL DRAINAGE BY 02-03Z THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 292327 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
255 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALL
BUT DISAPPEARED AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE
CWA AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO NETWORK RADARS. THE WIND FIELD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FEATURES PRETTY WEAK FLOW WITH NO UNIFORMITY IN
DIRECTION. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER COLORADO SLIDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW DECREASES
SLOWLY IN SPEED AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS DRY THIS
EVENING...THEN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY APPROACH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH THE ADVANCING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE QPF FIELDS BRING A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...THERE IS A TAD PROGGED OVER ALL THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 30-50%S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE PLAINS...THERE/S MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT...BUT NO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NO HELP FROM OROGRAPHICS.
SO NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE
THE SYSTEM MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR...PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM TRACE OVER THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TO POSSIBLY UP
TO 3 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
OVER COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD
RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND BEING OUT IN DAY SEVEN
HAVE ONLY ADDED 10 POPS AT THIS TIME.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOWER/MID CEILINGS ARE GONE AT DIA AND THEY WILL STAY AWAY.
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GO TO REAL DRAINAGE BY 02-03Z THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KGJT 292241 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CORRECTED TO REMOVE DUPLICATE WORDS IN THE LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS
SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW
CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ABAJO AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED IN SNOW DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS
APPEAR TO SETTLE OUT NEAR 7500 TO 8000 FEET...SO EXPECT SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT KDRO RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS AFTER DARK. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KTEX IN SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. TAF SITES
NORTH OF KTEX FACE LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292241 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CORRECTED TO REMOVE DUPLICATE WORDS IN THE LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS
SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW
CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ABAJO AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED IN SNOW DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS
APPEAR TO SETTLE OUT NEAR 7500 TO 8000 FEET...SO EXPECT SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT KDRO RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS AFTER DARK. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KTEX IN SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. TAF SITES
NORTH OF KTEX FACE LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292241 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CORRECTED TO REMOVE DUPLICATE WORDS IN THE LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS
SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW
CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ABAJO AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED IN SNOW DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS
APPEAR TO SETTLE OUT NEAR 7500 TO 8000 FEET...SO EXPECT SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT KDRO RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS AFTER DARK. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KTEX IN SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. TAF SITES
NORTH OF KTEX FACE LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292241 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CORRECTED TO REMOVE DUPLICATE WORDS IN THE LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS
SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW
CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ABAJO AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED IN SNOW DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS
APPEAR TO SETTLE OUT NEAR 7500 TO 8000 FEET...SO EXPECT SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT KDRO RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS AFTER DARK. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KTEX IN SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. TAF SITES
NORTH OF KTEX FACE LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292241 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CORRECTED TO REMOVE DUPLICATE WORDS IN THE LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS
SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW
CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ABAJO AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED IN SNOW DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS
APPEAR TO SETTLE OUT NEAR 7500 TO 8000 FEET...SO EXPECT SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT KDRO RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS AFTER DARK. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KTEX IN SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. TAF SITES
NORTH OF KTEX FACE LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 292241
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
FROM ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY DUE TO
NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS SATURDAY
MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. THE
UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW CO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NO
STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ABAJO AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED IN SNOW DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS
APPEAR TO SETTLE OUT NEAR 7500 TO 8000 FEET...SO EXPECT SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT KDRO RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS AFTER DARK. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KTEX IN SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. TAF SITES
NORTH OF KTEX FACE LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KBOU 292155
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
255 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE STATROCULUMUS AND ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALL BUT
DISAPPEARED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING
UP FORM THE WEST...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH RIGHT NOW. THERE IS NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA ACCORDING TO THE RADARS. THE WIND FIELD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FEATURES PRETTY WEAK FLOW WITH NO
UNIFORMITY IN DIRECTION. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO
SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW
DECREASES SLOWLY IN SPEED AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FRIDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE IS PROGGED INTO THE PLAINS BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS SOMEWHAT DRY THIS EVENING...THEN
CLOUDINESS IS ON THE INCREASE FORM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
SOME IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE EAST. MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE EAST. THE QPF FIELDS BRING A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO
THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY
...THERE IS A TAD PROGGED OVER ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
FOR POPS...WILL GOO WITH 30-50%S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS
ON FRIDAY. THERE IS THE MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT...BUT NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NO HELP FROM OROGRAPHICS. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE
THE SYSTEM MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR...PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM TRACE OVER THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TO POSSIBLY UP
TO 3 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
OVER COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD
RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND BEING OUT IN DAY SEVEN
HAVE ONLY ADDED 10 POPS AT THIS TIME.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOWER/MID CEILINGS ARE GONE AT DIA AND THEY WILL STAY AWAY.
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GO TO REAL DRAINAGE BY 02-03Z THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 292155
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
255 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE STATROCULUMUS AND ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALL BUT
DISAPPEARED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING
UP FORM THE WEST...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH RIGHT NOW. THERE IS NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA ACCORDING TO THE RADARS. THE WIND FIELD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FEATURES PRETTY WEAK FLOW WITH NO
UNIFORMITY IN DIRECTION. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO
SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW
DECREASES SLOWLY IN SPEED AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FRIDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE IS PROGGED INTO THE PLAINS BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS SOMEWHAT DRY THIS EVENING...THEN
CLOUDINESS IS ON THE INCREASE FORM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
SOME IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE EAST. MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE EAST. THE QPF FIELDS BRING A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO
THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY
...THERE IS A TAD PROGGED OVER ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
FOR POPS...WILL GOO WITH 30-50%S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS
ON FRIDAY. THERE IS THE MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT...BUT NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NO HELP FROM OROGRAPHICS. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

ALL THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE
THE SYSTEM MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE URBAN
CORRIDOR...PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM TRACE OVER THE PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TO POSSIBLY UP
TO 3 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
OVER COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD
RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND BEING OUT IN DAY SEVEN
HAVE ONLY ADDED 10 POPS AT THIS TIME.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOWER/MID CEILINGS ARE GONE AT DIA AND THEY WILL STAY AWAY.
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STILL EXPECTED. THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GO TO REAL DRAINAGE BY 02-03Z THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KPUB 292149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AFTER ABOUT 18Z FRI. KALS
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
LATER TONIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AND
CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. ON FRI AT KALS THERE WL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER IN THE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH
AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 292149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AFTER ABOUT 18Z FRI. KALS
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
LATER TONIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AND
CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. ON FRI AT KALS THERE WL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER IN THE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH
AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 292149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AFTER ABOUT 18Z FRI. KALS
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
LATER TONIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AND
CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. ON FRI AT KALS THERE WL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER IN THE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH
AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 292149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AFTER ABOUT 18Z FRI. KALS
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
LATER TONIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AND
CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. ON FRI AT KALS THERE WL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER IN THE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH
AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291757
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1057 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY AND MADE SOME MINOR SKY
COVER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. TOO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST BUT WL
INCLUDE VCSH.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1026 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. TOO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST BUT WL
INCLUDE VCSH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1026 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. TOO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST BUT WL
INCLUDE VCSH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291713
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1013 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION
FALLING RIGHT NOW. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE PLAINS HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE GOING
ON OVER MOST AREAS. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND WINDS.
NO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW CONTINUES NR A FORT
COLLINS TO GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY.  APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE UP TO
AROUND 600 MB OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS.

FOR THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY AFFECT THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN HOURS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS AS HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS STILL SURROUND SNOW CHANCES AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING SOUTHWEST TROUGH.

ON FRIDAY...WE STILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD DAY DESPITE THE
INCREASE AND THICKENING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE...BUT MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SPOTTY
AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...A
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS BY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENT BUT WEAK Q-G VERTICAL MOTION EXISTS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SATURDAY BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT ALONG
WITH WEAK Q-G LIFT WOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION THAT COULD
PRESENT ITSELF IN BANDED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL DONT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISMS. IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED THE ECMWF AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WHOLE
SETUP...WHICH COULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY
FAST APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF NORTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY IS STRONGER...AND WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
ALWAYS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY WINDY BUT WARMER DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH STRONGEST
DOWNSLOPE NOTED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD
FEATURE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS ALL
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH 19-20Z...THEN
DECREASE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM UNTIL DRAINAGE BY MID/LATE EVENING
TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
954 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK PERSISTS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF...AND WILL LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE IS BEING CARRIED INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OFF THE BAJA
COAST. BY THE AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE PROVIDES SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO A
GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJO
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES VERY
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH. THE WARM
NATURE OF THIS FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ON THE HIGH SIDE. AGREE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY
ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
START OUT AS SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...BUT
EXPECT IT WILL SWITCH OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR ALL RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS LOWER
SNOW LEVELS COULD HAVE BIG RAMIFICATIONS. FOR OTHER AREAS...VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH.

FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN COLORADO RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO
SEND WAVES OF MOISTURE INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. FORECASTS REMAIN A
BIT TRICKY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH QPF...SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO COLD ADVECTION. IN SPITE OF THE WARM MOIST
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM...MAIN SURFACE LOW STAYS
SOUTH OF THE SRN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AND RESULTS IN A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS. SURFACE WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE LACKING AND COULD BE THE REASON WHY GFS MOS
GUIDANCE HAS A PREFERENCE FOR SNOW AT BLANDING AND DURANGO. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC FOR
HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...COULD BE A SITUATION
WHERE THE FOOTHILLS (LIKE VALLECITO RESERVOIR) RECEIVE MORE SNOW
THAN PLACES LIKE SILVERTON AND MOLAS/RED MOUNTAIN PASSES.

WHILE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SW COLORADO...PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS ROUTE HIGHWAY 40 (VERNAL TO STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS). THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAVE A SHOT OF RECEIVING LOWER
END ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS (I.E. 4-8 INCHES). DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THE MOIST AIR MASS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RAIN/SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK UNEVENTFUL WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING. THE JET AXIS IS NORTH OF COLORADO...BUT
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRING A CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOW TO
THE PARK RANGE. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT EPISODES IN
THIS PATTERN...BUT SOMETIMES A SHORT WAVE IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
EXPECTED AND SNOWFALL EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. RIGHT NOW...THIS SEEMS
TO BE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE MILD
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ABAJO AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED IN SNOW DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS
APPEAR TO SETTLE OUT NEAR 7500 TO 8000 FEET...SO EXPECT SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT KDRO RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS AFTER DARK. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KTEX IN SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. TAF SITES
NORTH OF KTEX FACE LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291641
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
941 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291641
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
941 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291641
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
941 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291641
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
941 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291428
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
728 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291428
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
728 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK PERSISTS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF...AND WILL LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE IS BEING CARRIED INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OFF THE BAJA
COAST. BY THE AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE PROVIDES SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO A
GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJO
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES VERY
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH. THE WARM
NATURE OF THIS FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ON THE HIGH SIDE. AGREE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY
ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
START OUT AS SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...BUT
EXPECT IT WILL SWITCH OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR ALL RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS LOWER
SNOW LEVELS COULD HAVE BIG RAMIFICATIONS. FOR OTHER AREAS...VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH.

FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN COLORADO RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO
SEND WAVES OF MOISTURE INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. FORECASTS REMAIN A
BIT TRICKY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH QPF...SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO COLD ADVECTION. IN SPITE OF THE WARM MOIST
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM...MAIN SURFACE LOW STAYS
SOUTH OF THE SRN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AND RESULTS IN A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS. SURFACE WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE LACKING AND COULD BE THE REASON WHY GFS MOS
GUIADANCE HAS A PREFERENCE FOR SNOW AT BLANDING AND DURANGO. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC FOR
HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...COULD BE A SITUATION
WHERE THE FOOTHILLS (LIKE VALLECITO RESERVOIR) RECEIVE MORE SNOW
THAN PLACES LIKE SILVERTON AND MOLAS/RED MOUNTAIN PASSES.

WHILE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SW COLORADO...PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS ROUTE HIGHWAY 40 (VERNAL TO STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS). THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAVE A SHOT OF RECEIVEING LOWER
END ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS (I.E. 4-8 INCHES). DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THE MOIST AIR MASS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RAIN/SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK UNEVENTFUL WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING. THE JET AXIS IS NORTH OF COLORADO...BUT
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRING A CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOW TO
THE PARK RANGE. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT EPISODES IN
THIS PATTERN...BUT SOMETIMES A SHORT WAVE IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
EXPECTED AND SNOWFALL EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. RIGHT NOW...THIS SEEMS
TO BE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE MILD
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH A TREND OF LOWER CIGS
TONIGHT. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT SLOWLY
DETEORIATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE SOUTH WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD TONIGHT. CIGS WILL
LOWER AND BECOME LOCALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. TAF SITES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ARE KTEX AND KDRO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 291145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK PERSISTS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF...AND WILL LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE IS BEING CARRIED INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OFF THE BAJA
COAST. BY THE AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE PROVIDES SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO A
GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJO
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES VERY
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH. THE WARM
NATURE OF THIS FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ON THE HIGH SIDE. AGREE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY
ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
START OUT AS SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...BUT
EXPECT IT WILL SWITCH OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR ALL RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS LOWER
SNOW LEVELS COULD HAVE BIG RAMIFICATIONS. FOR OTHER AREAS...VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH.

FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN COLORADO RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO
SEND WAVES OF MOISTURE INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. FORECASTS REMAIN A
BIT TRICKY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH QPF...SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO COLD ADVECTION. IN SPITE OF THE WARM MOIST
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM...MAIN SURFACE LOW STAYS
SOUTH OF THE SRN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AND RESULTS IN A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS. SURFACE WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE LACKING AND COULD BE THE REASON WHY GFS MOS
GUIADANCE HAS A PREFERENCE FOR SNOW AT BLANDING AND DURANGO. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC FOR
HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...COULD BE A SITUATION
WHERE THE FOOTHILLS (LIKE VALLECITO RESERVOIR) RECEIVE MORE SNOW
THAN PLACES LIKE SILVERTON AND MOLAS/RED MOUNTAIN PASSES.

WHILE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SW COLORADO...PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS ROUTE HIGHWAY 40 (VERNAL TO STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS). THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAVE A SHOT OF RECEIVEING LOWER
END ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS (I.E. 4-8 INCHES). DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THE MOIST AIR MASS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RAIN/SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK UNEVENTFUL WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING. THE JET AXIS IS NORTH OF COLORADO...BUT
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRING A CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOW TO
THE PARK RANGE. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT EPISODES IN
THIS PATTERN...BUT SOMETIMES A SHORT WAVE IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
EXPECTED AND SNOWFALL EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. RIGHT NOW...THIS SEEMS
TO BE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE MILD
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH A TREND OF LOWER CIGS
TONIGHT. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT SLOWLY
DETEORIATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE SOUTH WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD TONIGHT. CIGS WILL
LOWER AND BECOME LOCALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. TAF SITES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ARE KTEX AND KDRO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 291145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK PERSISTS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF...AND WILL LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE IS BEING CARRIED INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OFF THE BAJA
COAST. BY THE AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE PROVIDES SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO A
GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJO
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES VERY
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH. THE WARM
NATURE OF THIS FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ON THE HIGH SIDE. AGREE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY
ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
START OUT AS SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...BUT
EXPECT IT WILL SWITCH OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR ALL RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS LOWER
SNOW LEVELS COULD HAVE BIG RAMIFICATIONS. FOR OTHER AREAS...VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH.

FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN COLORADO RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO
SEND WAVES OF MOISTURE INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. FORECASTS REMAIN A
BIT TRICKY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH QPF...SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO COLD ADVECTION. IN SPITE OF THE WARM MOIST
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM...MAIN SURFACE LOW STAYS
SOUTH OF THE SRN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AND RESULTS IN A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS. SURFACE WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE LACKING AND COULD BE THE REASON WHY GFS MOS
GUIADANCE HAS A PREFERENCE FOR SNOW AT BLANDING AND DURANGO. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC FOR
HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...COULD BE A SITUATION
WHERE THE FOOTHILLS (LIKE VALLECITO RESERVOIR) RECEIVE MORE SNOW
THAN PLACES LIKE SILVERTON AND MOLAS/RED MOUNTAIN PASSES.

WHILE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SW COLORADO...PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS ROUTE HIGHWAY 40 (VERNAL TO STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS). THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAVE A SHOT OF RECEIVEING LOWER
END ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS (I.E. 4-8 INCHES). DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THE MOIST AIR MASS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RAIN/SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK UNEVENTFUL WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING. THE JET AXIS IS NORTH OF COLORADO...BUT
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRING A CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOW TO
THE PARK RANGE. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT EPISODES IN
THIS PATTERN...BUT SOMETIMES A SHORT WAVE IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
EXPECTED AND SNOWFALL EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. RIGHT NOW...THIS SEEMS
TO BE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE MILD
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH A TREND OF LOWER CIGS
TONIGHT. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT SLOWLY
DETEORIATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE SOUTH WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD TONIGHT. CIGS WILL
LOWER AND BECOME LOCALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. TAF SITES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ARE KTEX AND KDRO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 291145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK PERSISTS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF...AND WILL LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE IS BEING CARRIED INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OFF THE BAJA
COAST. BY THE AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE PROVIDES SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO A
GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJO
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES VERY
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH. THE WARM
NATURE OF THIS FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ON THE HIGH SIDE. AGREE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY
ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
START OUT AS SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...BUT
EXPECT IT WILL SWITCH OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR ALL RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS LOWER
SNOW LEVELS COULD HAVE BIG RAMIFICATIONS. FOR OTHER AREAS...VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH.

FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN COLORADO RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO
SEND WAVES OF MOISTURE INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA. FORECASTS REMAIN A
BIT TRICKY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH QPF...SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO COLD ADVECTION. IN SPITE OF THE WARM MOIST
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM...MAIN SURFACE LOW STAYS
SOUTH OF THE SRN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AND RESULTS IN A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS. SURFACE WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE LACKING AND COULD BE THE REASON WHY GFS MOS
GUIADANCE HAS A PREFERENCE FOR SNOW AT BLANDING AND DURANGO. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC FOR
HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...COULD BE A SITUATION
WHERE THE FOOTHILLS (LIKE VALLECITO RESERVOIR) RECEIVE MORE SNOW
THAN PLACES LIKE SILVERTON AND MOLAS/RED MOUNTAIN PASSES.

WHILE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON SW COLORADO...PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS ROUTE HIGHWAY 40 (VERNAL TO STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS). THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAVE A SHOT OF RECEIVEING LOWER
END ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS (I.E. 4-8 INCHES). DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THE MOIST AIR MASS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RAIN/SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK UNEVENTFUL WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING. THE JET AXIS IS NORTH OF COLORADO...BUT
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRING A CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOW TO
THE PARK RANGE. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT EPISODES IN
THIS PATTERN...BUT SOMETIMES A SHORT WAVE IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
EXPECTED AND SNOWFALL EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. RIGHT NOW...THIS SEEMS
TO BE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE MILD
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH A TREND OF LOWER CIGS
TONIGHT. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT SLOWLY
DETEORIATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE SOUTH WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD TONIGHT. CIGS WILL
LOWER AND BECOME LOCALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. TAF SITES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ARE KTEX AND KDRO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291022
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW CONTINUES NR A FORT
COLLINS TO GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY.  APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE UP TO
AROUND 600 MB OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS.

FOR THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY AFFECT THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN HOURS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS AS HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS STILL SURROUND SNOW CHANCES AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING SOUTHWEST TROUGH.

ON FRIDAY...WE STILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD DAY DESPITE THE
INCREASE AND THICKENING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE...BUT MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SPOTTY
AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...A
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS BY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENT BUT WEAK Q-G VERTICAL MOTION EXISTS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SATURDAY BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT ALONG
WITH WEAK Q-G LIFT WOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION THAT COULD
PRESENT ITSELF IN BANDED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL DONT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISMS. IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED THE ECMWF AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WHOLE
SETUP...WHICH COULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY
FAST APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF NORTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY IS STRONGER...AND WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
ALWAYS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY WINDY BUT WARMER DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH STRONGEST
DOWNSLOPE NOTED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD
FEATURE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS ALL
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 5500-7000 FT MAY LINGER THRU 18Z BEFORE
DECREASING BY MID AFTN...OTHERWISE APPEARS ANY LIGHT PCPN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL STAY NORTH OF DIA.  WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE HAD A
LIGHT WNW COMPONENT.  BY 15Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT ELY AND THEN
MORE SELY BY 20Z.  FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME SLY AND REMAIN
SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291022
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW CONTINUES NR A FORT
COLLINS TO GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY.  APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE UP TO
AROUND 600 MB OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS.

FOR THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY AFFECT THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN HOURS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS AS HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS STILL SURROUND SNOW CHANCES AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING SOUTHWEST TROUGH.

ON FRIDAY...WE STILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD DAY DESPITE THE
INCREASE AND THICKENING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE...BUT MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SPOTTY
AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...A
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS BY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENT BUT WEAK Q-G VERTICAL MOTION EXISTS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SATURDAY BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT ALONG
WITH WEAK Q-G LIFT WOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION THAT COULD
PRESENT ITSELF IN BANDED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL DONT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISMS. IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED THE ECMWF AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WHOLE
SETUP...WHICH COULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY
FAST APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF NORTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY IS STRONGER...AND WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
ALWAYS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY WINDY BUT WARMER DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH STRONGEST
DOWNSLOPE NOTED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD
FEATURE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS ALL
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 5500-7000 FT MAY LINGER THRU 18Z BEFORE
DECREASING BY MID AFTN...OTHERWISE APPEARS ANY LIGHT PCPN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL STAY NORTH OF DIA.  WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE HAD A
LIGHT WNW COMPONENT.  BY 15Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT ELY AND THEN
MORE SELY BY 20Z.  FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME SLY AND REMAIN
SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291022
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW CONTINUES NR A FORT
COLLINS TO GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY.  APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE UP TO
AROUND 600 MB OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS.

FOR THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY AFFECT THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN HOURS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS AS HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS STILL SURROUND SNOW CHANCES AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING SOUTHWEST TROUGH.

ON FRIDAY...WE STILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD DAY DESPITE THE
INCREASE AND THICKENING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE...BUT MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SPOTTY
AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...A
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS BY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENT BUT WEAK Q-G VERTICAL MOTION EXISTS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SATURDAY BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT ALONG
WITH WEAK Q-G LIFT WOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION THAT COULD
PRESENT ITSELF IN BANDED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL DONT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISMS. IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED THE ECMWF AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WHOLE
SETUP...WHICH COULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY
FAST APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF NORTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY IS STRONGER...AND WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
ALWAYS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY WINDY BUT WARMER DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH STRONGEST
DOWNSLOPE NOTED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD
FEATURE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS ALL
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 5500-7000 FT MAY LINGER THRU 18Z BEFORE
DECREASING BY MID AFTN...OTHERWISE APPEARS ANY LIGHT PCPN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL STAY NORTH OF DIA.  WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE HAD A
LIGHT WNW COMPONENT.  BY 15Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT ELY AND THEN
MORE SELY BY 20Z.  FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME SLY AND REMAIN
SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291022
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW CONTINUES NR A FORT
COLLINS TO GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS
AREA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY.  APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE UP TO
AROUND 600 MB OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MTNS.

FOR THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY AFFECT THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A CHC OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN HOURS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS AS HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS STILL SURROUND SNOW CHANCES AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING SOUTHWEST TROUGH.

ON FRIDAY...WE STILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD DAY DESPITE THE
INCREASE AND THICKENING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE...BUT MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SPOTTY
AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...A
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPS WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS BY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENT BUT WEAK Q-G VERTICAL MOTION EXISTS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SATURDAY BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT ALONG
WITH WEAK Q-G LIFT WOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION THAT COULD
PRESENT ITSELF IN BANDED PRECIP...BUT OVERALL DONT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISMS. IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED THE ECMWF AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WHOLE
SETUP...WHICH COULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY
FAST APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF NORTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY IS STRONGER...AND WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
ALWAYS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY WINDY BUT WARMER DAY ON THE PLAINS WITH STRONGEST
DOWNSLOPE NOTED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD
FEATURE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS ALL
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 5500-7000 FT MAY LINGER THRU 18Z BEFORE
DECREASING BY MID AFTN...OTHERWISE APPEARS ANY LIGHT PCPN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL STAY NORTH OF DIA.  WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE HAD A
LIGHT WNW COMPONENT.  BY 15Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT ELY AND THEN
MORE SELY BY 20Z.  FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME SLY AND REMAIN
SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290608
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1108 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CO MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH NORTH OF AN ASPEN-VAIL LINE...IN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THESE WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES IN LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVERSPREADING
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT...BY AND LARGE...TOMORROW WILL
BE DRY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH THAT REACHES THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AND CIRCULATES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL RULE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO REACH SE UT AND
SW CO BY FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND
THEN SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH
AND THEN EAST ON SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND NEVER PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. A PIECE OF
ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE...WITH H7 TEMPS LINGERING AROUND THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 7500 FT OR 8000 FT DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT. ASSUMED A 9:1
OR 10:1 SLR FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME HIGHER RATIOS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
CONSIDERING SEASONABLY-HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GOOD
CONSISTENCY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
AT THIS POINT AM ANTICIPATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO VALLEYS AND HIGHER SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS
(MONTICELLO...ETC). THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE WEAKENED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ARE PROBABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...SOME MID CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THINNING BY SUNRISE. ACROSS
THE SOUTH...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290542
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1042 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR DISTURBANCE WL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NW
SFC WINDS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NEAR THE ERN
MTNS AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WINDS WL THEN
DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT OVR THE SERN PLAINS.

LATE TONIGHT MID LEVEL MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR ALSO INCREASING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. GENERALLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...BUT SOME ISOLD SNOW MAY FALL OVR THE HYR AREAS OF THE
ERN MTNS AS THE MID LEVEL MST INCREASES.  AN UPR RIDGE AXIS WL BE
MOVING ACRS THE AREA ON THU...BUT A LOT OF MID LEVEL MSTR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE AREA THRU THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPS COOL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WL ALSO HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD TO SCT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THRU THE DAY
THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A STORM
SYSTEM NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE S CA COASTLINE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ONSHORE AS A CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE NR THE BAJA PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WITH WAA AHEAD OF
THE LOW OVER THE ERN SAN JUANS THU NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE HIGH...POSSIBLY ABOVE 10K FEET...AND WILL NOT REALLY FALL UNTIL
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN AZ EARLY SATURDAY. LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
WILL ALSO SOMEWHAT LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MODT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE BEGINNING
FRI MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 12-18 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY. IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THESE TWO AREAS FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF HIGHWAY 160...THINGS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THE CENTRAL MTS SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER
TO THE SRN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE ERN PLAINS MAY NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW FROM THIS EVENT...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE CUT-
OFF MUCH TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL
COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...AS UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT
OVER THE PLAINS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY APPEARS
TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA IN THE LATEST NCEP MODEL RUNS.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST EARLY SUNDAY...IT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT PRETTY QUICKLY...AND BY SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRES AND RATON
MESA AREA. W-NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A DRY
PATTERN...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. NEXT SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY
WED NEXT WEEK...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SEEMINGLY EVER-
PRESENT EASTERN TROUGH. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24H.

KCOS AND KPUB...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H. WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY MVFR THU
EVENING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. FOR NOW KEPT VFR THROUGHOUT TAF AS
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION LOWER CIGS.

KALS...VFR THROUGH THUR AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR CIGS/WX TOMORROW EVENING AS AN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290542
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1042 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR DISTURBANCE WL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NW
SFC WINDS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NEAR THE ERN
MTNS AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WINDS WL THEN
DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT OVR THE SERN PLAINS.

LATE TONIGHT MID LEVEL MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR ALSO INCREASING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. GENERALLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...BUT SOME ISOLD SNOW MAY FALL OVR THE HYR AREAS OF THE
ERN MTNS AS THE MID LEVEL MST INCREASES.  AN UPR RIDGE AXIS WL BE
MOVING ACRS THE AREA ON THU...BUT A LOT OF MID LEVEL MSTR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE AREA THRU THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPS COOL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WL ALSO HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD TO SCT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THRU THE DAY
THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A STORM
SYSTEM NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE S CA COASTLINE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ONSHORE AS A CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE NR THE BAJA PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WITH WAA AHEAD OF
THE LOW OVER THE ERN SAN JUANS THU NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE HIGH...POSSIBLY ABOVE 10K FEET...AND WILL NOT REALLY FALL UNTIL
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN AZ EARLY SATURDAY. LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
WILL ALSO SOMEWHAT LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MODT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE BEGINNING
FRI MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 12-18 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY. IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THESE TWO AREAS FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF HIGHWAY 160...THINGS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THE CENTRAL MTS SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER
TO THE SRN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE ERN PLAINS MAY NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW FROM THIS EVENT...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE CUT-
OFF MUCH TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL
COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...AS UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT
OVER THE PLAINS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY APPEARS
TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA IN THE LATEST NCEP MODEL RUNS.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST EARLY SUNDAY...IT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT PRETTY QUICKLY...AND BY SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRES AND RATON
MESA AREA. W-NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A DRY
PATTERN...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. NEXT SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY
WED NEXT WEEK...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SEEMINGLY EVER-
PRESENT EASTERN TROUGH. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24H.

KCOS AND KPUB...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H. WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY MVFR THU
EVENING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. FOR NOW KEPT VFR THROUGHOUT TAF AS
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION LOWER CIGS.

KALS...VFR THROUGH THUR AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR CIGS/WX TOMORROW EVENING AS AN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 290356
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RUC/NAM SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SETTLING INTO THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT SO
UPPER THE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO ADDED SLGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...NORTHEAST LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD
COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SELY WINDS AT KDEN AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDS NNE GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT KGXY AND KFNL...SO COULD SEE WINDS SHIFT FM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY 05Z. AS A RESULT...WL NEED TO UPDATE KDEN TO SOME
STRONGER NELY WINDS AT THAT TIME. WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE PUSH...LOW
AND MID LEVEL BKN CIGS THAT DEVELOP COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE ILS CIGS IN THE 040-060FT AGL
CATEGORY. HAVE ALREADY PUT THIS IN THE KDEN TAF THROUGH 16Z AND WL
LIKELY DO SO FOR KBJC AND KAPA AS WELL...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC
OF MVFR CIGS RESTRICTION DEVELOPING IN THE 09Z-15Z WINDOW. WL
CONSIDER THIS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 290356
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RUC/NAM SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SETTLING INTO THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT SO
UPPER THE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO ADDED SLGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...NORTHEAST LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD
COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SELY WINDS AT KDEN AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDS NNE GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT KGXY AND KFNL...SO COULD SEE WINDS SHIFT FM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY 05Z. AS A RESULT...WL NEED TO UPDATE KDEN TO SOME
STRONGER NELY WINDS AT THAT TIME. WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE PUSH...LOW
AND MID LEVEL BKN CIGS THAT DEVELOP COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE ILS CIGS IN THE 040-060FT AGL
CATEGORY. HAVE ALREADY PUT THIS IN THE KDEN TAF THROUGH 16Z AND WL
LIKELY DO SO FOR KBJC AND KAPA AS WELL...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC
OF MVFR CIGS RESTRICTION DEVELOPING IN THE 09Z-15Z WINDOW. WL
CONSIDER THIS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 290356
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RUC/NAM SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SETTLING INTO THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT SO
UPPER THE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO ADDED SLGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...NORTHEAST LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD
COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SELY WINDS AT KDEN AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDS NNE GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT KGXY AND KFNL...SO COULD SEE WINDS SHIFT FM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY 05Z. AS A RESULT...WL NEED TO UPDATE KDEN TO SOME
STRONGER NELY WINDS AT THAT TIME. WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE PUSH...LOW
AND MID LEVEL BKN CIGS THAT DEVELOP COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE ILS CIGS IN THE 040-060FT AGL
CATEGORY. HAVE ALREADY PUT THIS IN THE KDEN TAF THROUGH 16Z AND WL
LIKELY DO SO FOR KBJC AND KAPA AS WELL...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC
OF MVFR CIGS RESTRICTION DEVELOPING IN THE 09Z-15Z WINDOW. WL
CONSIDER THIS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 290356
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RUC/NAM SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SETTLING INTO THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT SO
UPPER THE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO ADDED SLGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...NORTHEAST LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD
COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SELY WINDS AT KDEN AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDS NNE GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT KGXY AND KFNL...SO COULD SEE WINDS SHIFT FM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY 05Z. AS A RESULT...WL NEED TO UPDATE KDEN TO SOME
STRONGER NELY WINDS AT THAT TIME. WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE PUSH...LOW
AND MID LEVEL BKN CIGS THAT DEVELOP COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE ILS CIGS IN THE 040-060FT AGL
CATEGORY. HAVE ALREADY PUT THIS IN THE KDEN TAF THROUGH 16Z AND WL
LIKELY DO SO FOR KBJC AND KAPA AS WELL...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC
OF MVFR CIGS RESTRICTION DEVELOPING IN THE 09Z-15Z WINDOW. WL
CONSIDER THIS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
508 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CO MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH NORTH OF AN ASPEN-VAIL LINE...IN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THESE WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES IN LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVERSPREADING
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT...BY AND LARGE...TOMORROW WILL
BE DRY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH THAT REACHES THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AND CIRCULATES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL RULE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO REACH SE UT AND
SW CO BY FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND
THEN SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH
AND THEN EAST ON SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND NEVER PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. A PIECE OF
ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE...WITH H7 TEMPS LINGERING AROUND THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 7500 FT OR 8000 FT DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT. ASSUMED A 9:1
OR 10:1 SLR FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME HIGHER RATIOS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
CONSIDERING SEASONABLY-HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GOOD
CONSISTENCY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
AT THIS POINT AM ANTICIPATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO VALLEYS AND HIGHER SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS
(MONTICELLO...ETC). THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE WEAKENED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ARE PROBABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 6K TO 9K FEET BEING
REPORTED AT KGJT...KRIL UP TO KEGE AND KASE BUT NO REPORT OF ANY
PRECIP. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW
AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
508 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CO MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH NORTH OF AN ASPEN-VAIL LINE...IN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THESE WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES IN LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVERSPREADING
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT...BY AND LARGE...TOMORROW WILL
BE DRY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH THAT REACHES THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AND CIRCULATES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL RULE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO REACH SE UT AND
SW CO BY FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND
THEN SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH
AND THEN EAST ON SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND NEVER PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. A PIECE OF
ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE...WITH H7 TEMPS LINGERING AROUND THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 7500 FT OR 8000 FT DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT. ASSUMED A 9:1
OR 10:1 SLR FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME HIGHER RATIOS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
CONSIDERING SEASONABLY-HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GOOD
CONSISTENCY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
AT THIS POINT AM ANTICIPATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO VALLEYS AND HIGHER SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS
(MONTICELLO...ETC). THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE WEAKENED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ARE PROBABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 6K TO 9K FEET BEING
REPORTED AT KGJT...KRIL UP TO KEGE AND KASE BUT NO REPORT OF ANY
PRECIP. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW
AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
508 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CO MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH NORTH OF AN ASPEN-VAIL LINE...IN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THESE WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES IN LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVERSPREADING
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT...BY AND LARGE...TOMORROW WILL
BE DRY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH THAT REACHES THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AND CIRCULATES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL RULE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO REACH SE UT AND
SW CO BY FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND
THEN SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH
AND THEN EAST ON SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND NEVER PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. A PIECE OF
ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE...WITH H7 TEMPS LINGERING AROUND THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 7500 FT OR 8000 FT DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT. ASSUMED A 9:1
OR 10:1 SLR FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME HIGHER RATIOS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
CONSIDERING SEASONABLY-HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GOOD
CONSISTENCY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
AT THIS POINT AM ANTICIPATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO VALLEYS AND HIGHER SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS
(MONTICELLO...ETC). THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE WEAKENED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ARE PROBABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 6K TO 9K FEET BEING
REPORTED AT KGJT...KRIL UP TO KEGE AND KASE BUT NO REPORT OF ANY
PRECIP. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW
AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
508 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CO MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH NORTH OF AN ASPEN-VAIL LINE...IN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THESE WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES IN LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVERSPREADING
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT...BY AND LARGE...TOMORROW WILL
BE DRY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH THAT REACHES THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AND CIRCULATES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL RULE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO REACH SE UT AND
SW CO BY FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND
THEN SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH
AND THEN EAST ON SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND NEVER PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. A PIECE OF
ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE...WITH H7 TEMPS LINGERING AROUND THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 7500 FT OR 8000 FT DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT. ASSUMED A 9:1
OR 10:1 SLR FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME HIGHER RATIOS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
CONSIDERING SEASONABLY-HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GOOD
CONSISTENCY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
AT THIS POINT AM ANTICIPATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO VALLEYS AND HIGHER SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS
(MONTICELLO...ETC). THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE WEAKENED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ARE PROBABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 6K TO 9K FEET BEING
REPORTED AT KGJT...KRIL UP TO KEGE AND KASE BUT NO REPORT OF ANY
PRECIP. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW
AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KBOU 282225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW.
SPEEDS ARE 15 TO 35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE RADAR
HAS SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A RAIN SHOWER OVER NORTHERN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES.
MODELS HAVE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 75 TO 110 KNOTS BOTH PERIODS.
THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS KEEP DOWNWARD ENERGY OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.
FOR MOISTURE...MODELS HAVE SOME IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT`S NOT VERY DEEP...AND OVER THE
PLAINS IT IS MOSTLY UP OFF THE SURFACE. THURSDAY DRIES OUT SOME.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...THEN EVEN LESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.  FOR POPS WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE THEM OVERNIGHT. NO POPS ON
THURSDAY. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...
THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-6 C COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE WINDS AT DIA ARE DUE NORTH NOW AT SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID EVENING. THEY WILL DECREASE
IN SPEED BUT LIKELY STAY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY ALL NIGHT. NOT
SURE ANY MORE ABOUT SCT-BKN LOWER CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. AM LEANING
AGAINST IT NOW...SO NO CEILING ISSUES AT DIA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 282225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW.
SPEEDS ARE 15 TO 35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE RADAR
HAS SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A RAIN SHOWER OVER NORTHERN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES.
MODELS HAVE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 75 TO 110 KNOTS BOTH PERIODS.
THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS KEEP DOWNWARD ENERGY OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.
FOR MOISTURE...MODELS HAVE SOME IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT`S NOT VERY DEEP...AND OVER THE
PLAINS IT IS MOSTLY UP OFF THE SURFACE. THURSDAY DRIES OUT SOME.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...THEN EVEN LESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.  FOR POPS WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE THEM OVERNIGHT. NO POPS ON
THURSDAY. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...
THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-6 C COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE WINDS AT DIA ARE DUE NORTH NOW AT SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID EVENING. THEY WILL DECREASE
IN SPEED BUT LIKELY STAY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY ALL NIGHT. NOT
SURE ANY MORE ABOUT SCT-BKN LOWER CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. AM LEANING
AGAINST IT NOW...SO NO CEILING ISSUES AT DIA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CO MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH NORTH OF AN ASPEN-VAIL LINE...IN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THESE WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES IN LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVERSPREADING
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT...BY AND LARGE...TOMORROW WILL
BE DRY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH THAT REACHES THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AND CIRCULATES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL RULE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO REACH SE UT AND
SW CO BY FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND
THEN SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH
AND THEN EAST ON SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND NEVER PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. A PIECE OF
ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE...WITH H7 TEMPS LINGERING AROUND THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 7500 FT OR 8000 FT DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT. ASSUMED A 9:1
OR 10:1 SLR FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME HIGHER RATIOS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
CONSIDERING SEASONABLY-HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GOOD
CONSISTENCY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
AT THIS POINT AM ANTICIPATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO VALLEYS AND HIGHER SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS
(MONTICELLO...ETC). THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE WEAKENED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ARE PROBABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NW CO TODAY FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW FOR
SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN - SN FROM KCCU TO K3MW THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD
TO SCT -SHSN/-SHRA MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KASE UNTIL
00Z...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH THERE AS WELL AS AT KEGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THU MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CO MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH NORTH OF AN ASPEN-VAIL LINE...IN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THESE WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES IN LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVERSPREADING
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT...BY AND LARGE...TOMORROW WILL
BE DRY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH THAT REACHES THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AND CIRCULATES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL RULE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO REACH SE UT AND
SW CO BY FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND
THEN SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH
AND THEN EAST ON SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND NEVER PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. A PIECE OF
ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE...WITH H7 TEMPS LINGERING AROUND THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 7500 FT OR 8000 FT DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT. ASSUMED A 9:1
OR 10:1 SLR FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME HIGHER RATIOS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
CONSIDERING SEASONABLY-HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GOOD
CONSISTENCY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
AT THIS POINT AM ANTICIPATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO VALLEYS AND HIGHER SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS
(MONTICELLO...ETC). THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE WEAKENED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ARE PROBABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NW CO TODAY FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW FOR
SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN - SN FROM KCCU TO K3MW THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD
TO SCT -SHSN/-SHRA MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KASE UNTIL
00Z...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH THERE AS WELL AS AT KEGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THU MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CO MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH NORTH OF AN ASPEN-VAIL LINE...IN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THESE WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES IN LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVERSPREADING
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT...BY AND LARGE...TOMORROW WILL
BE DRY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH THAT REACHES THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AND CIRCULATES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL RULE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO REACH SE UT AND
SW CO BY FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND
THEN SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH
AND THEN EAST ON SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND NEVER PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. A PIECE OF
ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE...WITH H7 TEMPS LINGERING AROUND THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 7500 FT OR 8000 FT DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT. ASSUMED A 9:1
OR 10:1 SLR FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME HIGHER RATIOS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
CONSIDERING SEASONABLY-HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GOOD
CONSISTENCY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
AT THIS POINT AM ANTICIPATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO VALLEYS AND HIGHER SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS
(MONTICELLO...ETC). THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE WEAKENED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ARE PROBABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NW CO TODAY FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW FOR
SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN - SN FROM KCCU TO K3MW THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD
TO SCT -SHSN/-SHRA MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KASE UNTIL
00Z...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH THERE AS WELL AS AT KEGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THU MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CO MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH NORTH OF AN ASPEN-VAIL LINE...IN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THESE WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES IN LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVERSPREADING
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT...BY AND LARGE...TOMORROW WILL
BE DRY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH THAT REACHES THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AND CIRCULATES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL RULE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO REACH SE UT AND
SW CO BY FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND
THEN SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH
AND THEN EAST ON SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND NEVER PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. A PIECE OF
ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE...WITH H7 TEMPS LINGERING AROUND THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 7500 FT OR 8000 FT DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY...WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT. ASSUMED A 9:1
OR 10:1 SLR FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME HIGHER RATIOS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
CONSIDERING SEASONABLY-HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND GOOD
CONSISTENCY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS.
AT THIS POINT AM ANTICIPATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO VALLEYS AND HIGHER SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS
(MONTICELLO...ETC). THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE ONLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE WEAKENED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ARE PROBABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NW CO TODAY FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW FOR
SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN - SN FROM KCCU TO K3MW THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD
TO SCT -SHSN/-SHRA MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KASE UNTIL
00Z...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH THERE AS WELL AS AT KEGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THU MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
233 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR DISTURBANCE WL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NW
SFC WINDS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NEAR THE ERN
MTNS AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WINDS WL THEN
DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT OVR THE SERN PLAINS.

LATE TONIGHT MID LEVEL MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR ALSO INCREASING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. GENERALLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...BUT SOME ISOLD SNOW MAY FALL OVR THE HYR AREAS OF THE
ERN MTNS AS THE MID LEVEL MST INCREASES.  AN UPR RIDGE AXIS WL BE
MOVING ACRS THE AREA ON THU...BUT A LOT OF MID LEVEL MSTR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE AREA THRU THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPS COOL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WL ALSO HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD TO SCT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THRU THE DAY
THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A STORM
SYSTEM NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE S CA COASTLINE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ONSHORE AS A CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE NR THE BAJA PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WITH WAA AHEAD OF
THE LOW OVER THE ERN SAN JUANS THU NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE HIGH...POSSIBLY ABOVE 10K FEET...AND WILL NOT REALLY FALL UNTIL
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN AZ EARLY SATURDAY. LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
WILL ALSO SOMEWHAT LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MODT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE BEGINNING
FRI MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 12-18 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY. IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THESE TWO AREAS FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF HIGHWAY 160...THINGS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THE CENTRAL MTS SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER
TO THE SRN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE ERN PLAINS MAY NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW FROM THIS EVENT...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE CUT-
OFF MUCH TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL
COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...AS UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT
OVER THE PLAINS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY APPEARS
TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA IN THE LATEST NCEP MODEL RUNS.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST EARLY SUNDAY...IT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT PRETTY QUICKLY...AND BY SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRES AND RATON
MESA AREA. W-NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A DRY
PATTERN...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. NEXT SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY
WED NEXT WEEK...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SEEMINGLY EVER-
PRESENT EASTERN TROUGH. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASES. KCOS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...WHEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL LOWER AND
POSSIBLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THRU MID TO LATE MORNING
THURSDAY WHEN CIGS SHOULD THEN INCREASE. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL
SEE THE WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING. KALS WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL
LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
233 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR DISTURBANCE WL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NW
SFC WINDS WL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NEAR THE ERN
MTNS AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WINDS WL THEN
DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT OVR THE SERN PLAINS.

LATE TONIGHT MID LEVEL MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR ALSO INCREASING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN
PLAINS.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. GENERALLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...BUT SOME ISOLD SNOW MAY FALL OVR THE HYR AREAS OF THE
ERN MTNS AS THE MID LEVEL MST INCREASES.  AN UPR RIDGE AXIS WL BE
MOVING ACRS THE AREA ON THU...BUT A LOT OF MID LEVEL MSTR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE AREA THRU THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPS COOL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WL ALSO HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD TO SCT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THRU THE DAY
THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OVR THE SERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A STORM
SYSTEM NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE S CA COASTLINE. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ONSHORE AS A CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE NR THE BAJA PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE SYSTEM WITH WAA AHEAD OF
THE LOW OVER THE ERN SAN JUANS THU NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE HIGH...POSSIBLY ABOVE 10K FEET...AND WILL NOT REALLY FALL UNTIL
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN AZ EARLY SATURDAY. LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
WILL ALSO SOMEWHAT LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MODT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE BEGINNING
FRI MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 12-18 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY. IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THESE TWO AREAS FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF HIGHWAY 160...THINGS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THE CENTRAL MTS SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER
TO THE SRN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE ERN PLAINS MAY NOT SEE
MUCH SNOW FROM THIS EVENT...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE CUT-
OFF MUCH TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL
COME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...AS UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT
OVER THE PLAINS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY APPEARS
TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA IN THE LATEST NCEP MODEL RUNS.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST EARLY SUNDAY...IT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT PRETTY QUICKLY...AND BY SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRES AND RATON
MESA AREA. W-NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS...WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A DRY
PATTERN...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS OF LAKE
AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. NEXT SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY
WED NEXT WEEK...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SEEMINGLY EVER-
PRESENT EASTERN TROUGH. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASES. KCOS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...WHEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL LOWER AND
POSSIBLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THRU MID TO LATE MORNING
THURSDAY WHEN CIGS SHOULD THEN INCREASE. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL
SEE THE WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING. KALS WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL
LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281805
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1105 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND SPEEDS IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR
TODAY AND UPDATED FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...DRY AND MILD DOWN BELOW...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  THE PEAK WINDOW
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY. NOT THE RECORD WARMTH OF YESTERDAY...BUT STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL INCLUDE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VERY MILD BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
START TO APPEAR.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND RIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTERESTING HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
THE PAST 24 HRS.  GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...AND SWING THE UPPER
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO...A SLOWER START
FOR PCPN ON THU SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST MOVING ONSHORE...WITH
JUST ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN THE EVE. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN PCPN
STARTS TO BLOOM OVER THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY THE SW MTS/CONTDVD. THE
LOW STARTS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MERGES
WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS MT AND WY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PCPN FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH
A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER AIR. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
COLD THESE THREE DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 40S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE
MTS MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF TOTAL NEW
SNOW FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PCPN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUN AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MON AND
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING. KCOS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL LOWER AND POSSIBLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE STRONG NW WINDS UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  KALS WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS WL LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281805
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1105 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND SPEEDS IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR
TODAY AND UPDATED FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...DRY AND MILD DOWN BELOW...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  THE PEAK WINDOW
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY. NOT THE RECORD WARMTH OF YESTERDAY...BUT STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL INCLUDE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VERY MILD BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
START TO APPEAR.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND RIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTERESTING HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
THE PAST 24 HRS.  GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...AND SWING THE UPPER
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO...A SLOWER START
FOR PCPN ON THU SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST MOVING ONSHORE...WITH
JUST ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN THE EVE. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN PCPN
STARTS TO BLOOM OVER THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY THE SW MTS/CONTDVD. THE
LOW STARTS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MERGES
WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS MT AND WY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PCPN FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH
A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER AIR. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
COLD THESE THREE DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 40S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE
MTS MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF TOTAL NEW
SNOW FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PCPN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUN AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MON AND
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING. KCOS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL LOWER AND POSSIBLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE STRONG NW WINDS UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  KALS WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS WL LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281805
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1105 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND SPEEDS IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR
TODAY AND UPDATED FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...DRY AND MILD DOWN BELOW...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  THE PEAK WINDOW
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY. NOT THE RECORD WARMTH OF YESTERDAY...BUT STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL INCLUDE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VERY MILD BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
START TO APPEAR.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND RIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTERESTING HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
THE PAST 24 HRS.  GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...AND SWING THE UPPER
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO...A SLOWER START
FOR PCPN ON THU SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST MOVING ONSHORE...WITH
JUST ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN THE EVE. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN PCPN
STARTS TO BLOOM OVER THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY THE SW MTS/CONTDVD. THE
LOW STARTS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MERGES
WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS MT AND WY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PCPN FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH
A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER AIR. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
COLD THESE THREE DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 40S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE
MTS MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF TOTAL NEW
SNOW FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PCPN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUN AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MON AND
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING. KCOS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL LOWER AND POSSIBLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE STRONG NW WINDS UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  KALS WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS WL LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281805
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1105 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND SPEEDS IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR
TODAY AND UPDATED FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...DRY AND MILD DOWN BELOW...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  THE PEAK WINDOW
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY. NOT THE RECORD WARMTH OF YESTERDAY...BUT STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL INCLUDE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VERY MILD BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
START TO APPEAR.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND RIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTERESTING HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
THE PAST 24 HRS.  GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...AND SWING THE UPPER
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO...A SLOWER START
FOR PCPN ON THU SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST MOVING ONSHORE...WITH
JUST ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN THE EVE. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN PCPN
STARTS TO BLOOM OVER THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY THE SW MTS/CONTDVD. THE
LOW STARTS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MERGES
WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS MT AND WY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PCPN FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH
A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER AIR. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
COLD THESE THREE DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 40S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE
MTS MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF TOTAL NEW
SNOW FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PCPN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUN AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MON AND
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING. KCOS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL LOWER AND POSSIBLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE STRONG NW WINDS UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  KALS WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS WL LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281741
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1041 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A BATCH OF CLOUDINESS IS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
CWA RIGHT NOW IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE RECENT
WEAK UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRETTY UNIFORM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME...NORTHWESTERLY UP TO 35 MPH FOR THE
PLAINS AND BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE RADAR
WAS SHOWING SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE DIVIDE. WILL MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON REAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED ONCE AND
FOR ALL IN AT DIA. MAXIMUM GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE
SHOULDN`T BE ANY CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281741
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1041 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A BATCH OF CLOUDINESS IS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
CWA RIGHT NOW IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE RECENT
WEAK UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRETTY UNIFORM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME...NORTHWESTERLY UP TO 35 MPH FOR THE
PLAINS AND BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE RADAR
WAS SHOWING SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE DIVIDE. WILL MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON REAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED ONCE AND
FOR ALL IN AT DIA. MAXIMUM GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE
SHOULDN`T BE ANY CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 281738
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WY AND EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGES IS FORECAST BY SHORT-RANGE MODELS TO CLIP NW CO TODAY. THIS
AND TRAILING NW FLOW WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN CO
MTNS. A SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED SOME CUMULUS BUILDING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INDICATIVE OF SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT BUT THINK THE
AIRMASS TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE SAN
JUANS. TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELKS TODAY
PER CURRENT WEBCAM OBS AND LATEST AVAILABLE HRRR GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH NV
YESTERDAY HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES...AND HAS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN ID AND INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST WY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. RADAR
ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN CO VALLEYS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES LATER THIS MORNING
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE STILL
MOIST AIR MASS TO KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAVORED
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD SO RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE YAMPA RIVER BASIN
FROM AROUND MILNER WEST. WE DO GET SOME WEAK COOLING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S.

MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBOUNDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. BUT MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.

THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
RESULTS IN EXPANDING CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD THURSDAY NIGHT. A
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN COLORADO RIVER BASIN WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS MOIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 (VERNAL TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS) STAND A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF OBSERVING
SOME PCPN...BUT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THIS HIGHWAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH QPF FALLS AND THE PCPN TYPE
(ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS). WHILE SOME MODEL
SPREAD STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION ON THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
TRENDS. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TARGETING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME CYCLOGENETICAL
FORCING DOES EXIST...BUT THE BULLSEYE STAYS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS HINTS OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR DURANGO BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NO OTHER MODEL SHOWS THIS AND THEREFORE NOT CONFIDENT
IN THIS SOLUTION. GIVEN THESE ASSESSMENTS...PATTERN FAVORS PCPN
AND HIGH POP VALUES FOR THE SRN HALF IS WARRANTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH REGARD TO SNOW AMOUNTS...QPF
WITH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8:1 TO 10:1 MAY ONLY RESULT IN 4
TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING 12 INCHES. WILL ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO MAKE ANOTHER ASSESSMENT BUT ELECTED NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR THE SRN MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE SRN VALLEYS BETWEEN 6000 TO 8000 FEET...PCPN TYPE MAY
DEPEND ON THE TIME OF DAY. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...NRN STREAM DIVES TOWARD COLORADO
AND SHUNTS MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE BRIEFLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL AND LOWERS THE SNOW
LEVEL...BUT DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS GONE...PACIFIC ENERGY CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAY BE IN STATE OF FLUX HERE AND
NOT CLEAR HOW THESE PACIFIC WAVES WILL IMPACT THE NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NW CO TODAY FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW FOR
SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN - SN FROM KCCU TO K3MW THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD
TO SCT -SHSN/-SHRA MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KASE UNTIL
00Z...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH THERE AS WELL AS AT KEGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THU MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 281738
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WY AND EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGES IS FORECAST BY SHORT-RANGE MODELS TO CLIP NW CO TODAY. THIS
AND TRAILING NW FLOW WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN CO
MTNS. A SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED SOME CUMULUS BUILDING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INDICATIVE OF SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT BUT THINK THE
AIRMASS TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE SAN
JUANS. TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELKS TODAY
PER CURRENT WEBCAM OBS AND LATEST AVAILABLE HRRR GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH NV
YESTERDAY HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES...AND HAS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN ID AND INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST WY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. RADAR
ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN CO VALLEYS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES LATER THIS MORNING
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE STILL
MOIST AIR MASS TO KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAVORED
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD SO RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE YAMPA RIVER BASIN
FROM AROUND MILNER WEST. WE DO GET SOME WEAK COOLING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S.

MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBOUNDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. BUT MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.

THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
RESULTS IN EXPANDING CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD THURSDAY NIGHT. A
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN COLORADO RIVER BASIN WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS MOIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 (VERNAL TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS) STAND A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF OBSERVING
SOME PCPN...BUT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THIS HIGHWAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH QPF FALLS AND THE PCPN TYPE
(ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS). WHILE SOME MODEL
SPREAD STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION ON THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
TRENDS. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TARGETING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME CYCLOGENETICAL
FORCING DOES EXIST...BUT THE BULLSEYE STAYS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS HINTS OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR DURANGO BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NO OTHER MODEL SHOWS THIS AND THEREFORE NOT CONFIDENT
IN THIS SOLUTION. GIVEN THESE ASSESSMENTS...PATTERN FAVORS PCPN
AND HIGH POP VALUES FOR THE SRN HALF IS WARRANTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH REGARD TO SNOW AMOUNTS...QPF
WITH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8:1 TO 10:1 MAY ONLY RESULT IN 4
TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING 12 INCHES. WILL ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO MAKE ANOTHER ASSESSMENT BUT ELECTED NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR THE SRN MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE SRN VALLEYS BETWEEN 6000 TO 8000 FEET...PCPN TYPE MAY
DEPEND ON THE TIME OF DAY. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...NRN STREAM DIVES TOWARD COLORADO
AND SHUNTS MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE BRIEFLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL AND LOWERS THE SNOW
LEVEL...BUT DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS GONE...PACIFIC ENERGY CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAY BE IN STATE OF FLUX HERE AND
NOT CLEAR HOW THESE PACIFIC WAVES WILL IMPACT THE NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NW CO TODAY FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW FOR
SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN - SN FROM KCCU TO K3MW THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD
TO SCT -SHSN/-SHRA MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KASE UNTIL
00Z...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH THERE AS WELL AS AT KEGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THU MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JAD



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281731
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...DRY AND MILD DOWN BELOW...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  THE PEAK WINDOW
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY. NOT THE RECORD WARMTH OF YESTERDAY...BUT STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL INCLUDE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VERY MILD BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
START TO APPEAR.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND RIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTERESTING HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
THE PAST 24 HRS.  GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...AND SWING THE UPPER
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO...A SLOWER START
FOR PCPN ON THU SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST MOVING ONSHORE...WITH
JUST ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN THE EVE. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN PCPN
STARTS TO BLOOM OVER THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY THE SW MTS/CONTDVD. THE
LOW STARTS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MERGES
WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS MT AND WY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PCPN FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH
A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER AIR. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
COLD THESE THREE DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 40S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE
MTS MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF TOTAL NEW
SNOW FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PCPN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUN AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MON AND
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING. KCOS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL LOWER AND POSSIBLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE STRONG NW WINDS UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  KALS WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS WL LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281731
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...DRY AND MILD DOWN BELOW...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  THE PEAK WINDOW
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY. NOT THE RECORD WARMTH OF YESTERDAY...BUT STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL INCLUDE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VERY MILD BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
START TO APPEAR.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND RIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTERESTING HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
THE PAST 24 HRS.  GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...AND SWING THE UPPER
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO...A SLOWER START
FOR PCPN ON THU SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST MOVING ONSHORE...WITH
JUST ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN THE EVE. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN PCPN
STARTS TO BLOOM OVER THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY THE SW MTS/CONTDVD. THE
LOW STARTS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MERGES
WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS MT AND WY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PCPN FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH
A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER AIR. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
COLD THESE THREE DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 40S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE
MTS MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF TOTAL NEW
SNOW FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PCPN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUN AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MON AND
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING. KCOS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL LOWER AND POSSIBLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE STRONG NW WINDS UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  KALS WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS WL LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281147
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
447 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH NV
YESTERDAY HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES...AND HAS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN ID AND INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST WY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. RADAR
ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN CO VALLEYS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES LATER THIS MORNING
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE STILL
MOIST AIR MASS TO KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAVORED
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD SO RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE YAMPA RIVER BASIN
FROM AROUND MILNER WEST. WE DO GET SOME WEAK COOLING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S.

MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBOUNDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. BUT MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.

THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
RESULTS IN EXPANDING CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD THURSDAY NIGHT. A
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN COLORADO RIVER BASIN WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS MOIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 (VERNAL TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS) STAND A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF OBSERVING
SOME PCPN...BUT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THIS HIGHWAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH QPF FALLS AND THE PCPN TYPE
(ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS). WHILE SOME MODEL
SPREAD STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION ON THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
TRENDS. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TARGETING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME CYCLOGENETICAL
FORCING DOES EXIST...BUT THE BULLSEYE STAYS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS HINTS OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR DURANGO BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NO OTHER MODEL SHOWS THIS AND THEREFORE NOT CONFIDENT
IN THIS SOLUTION. GIVEN THESE ASSESSMENTS...PATTERN FAVORS PCPN
AND HIGH POP VALUES FOR THE SRN HALF IS WARRANTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH REGARD TO SNOW AMOUNTS...QPF
WITH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8:1 TO 10:1 MAY ONLY RESULT IN 4
TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING 12 INCHES. WILL ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO MAKE ANOTHER ASSESSMENT BUT ELECTED NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR THE SRN MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE SRN VALLEYS BETWEEN 6000 TO 8000 FEET...PCPN TYPE MAY
DEPEND ON THE TIME OF DAY. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...NRN STREAM DIVES TOWARD COLORADO
AND SHUNTS MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE BRIEFLY ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL AND LOWERS THE SNOW
LEVEL...BUT DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS GONE...PACIFIC ENERGY CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAY BE IN STATE OF FLUX HERE AND
NOT CLEAR HOW THESE PACIFIC WAVES WILL IMPACT THE NRN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN OVER WRN COLORADO MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS TO
BKN050 AT THE SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES (KASE...KEGE...AND KRIL)
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281107
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
407 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...DRY AND MILD DOWN BELOW...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  THE PEAK WINDOW
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY. NOT THE RECORD WARMTH OF YESTERDAY...BUT STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL INCLUDE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VERY MILD BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
START TO APPEAR.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND RIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTERESTING HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
THE PAST 24 HRS.  GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...AND SWING THE UPPER
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO...A SLOWER START
FOR PCPN ON THU SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST MOVING ONSHORE...WITH
JUST ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN THE EVE. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN PCPN
STARTS TO BLOOM OVER THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY THE SW MTS/CONTDVD. THE
LOW STARTS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MERGES
WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS MT AND WY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PCPN FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH
A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER AIR. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
COLD THESE THREE DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 40S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE
MTS MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF TOTAL NEW
SNOW FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PCPN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUN AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MON AND
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WITH ONLY SPOTTY ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE PASS.

TONIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FLIGHT AREA WILL START A
TRANSITION INTO A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COLORADO PLAINS.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR AND AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BUT THEN THINGS WILL START TO TRANSITION 06Z-12Z.  KCOS AND
KPUB COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CLOSE TO 12Z.  FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR KALS.  GUIDANCE IS
CONFLICTING WITH ONE SET KEEPING IT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE
OTHER INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY.  NOT REALLY SURE WHAT TO EXPECT.  MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH BUT WITHOUT ANY RECENT PRECIPITATION NOT
SURE IF IT WILL SATURATE.  WILL INTRODUCE SOME MVFR FOG FOR NOW AND
AWAIT LATER MODEL DATA BEFORE TAKING IT DOWN TO THE FLOOR. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281107
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
407 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...DRY AND MILD DOWN BELOW...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  THE PEAK WINDOW
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY. NOT THE RECORD WARMTH OF YESTERDAY...BUT STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL INCLUDE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VERY MILD BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
START TO APPEAR.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND RIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTERESTING HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
THE PAST 24 HRS.  GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...AND SWING THE UPPER
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO...A SLOWER START
FOR PCPN ON THU SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST MOVING ONSHORE...WITH
JUST ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN THE EVE. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN PCPN
STARTS TO BLOOM OVER THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY THE SW MTS/CONTDVD. THE
LOW STARTS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MERGES
WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS MT AND WY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PCPN FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH
A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER AIR. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
COLD THESE THREE DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 40S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE
MTS MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF TOTAL NEW
SNOW FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PCPN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUN AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MON AND
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WITH ONLY SPOTTY ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE PASS.

TONIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FLIGHT AREA WILL START A
TRANSITION INTO A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COLORADO PLAINS.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR AND AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BUT THEN THINGS WILL START TO TRANSITION 06Z-12Z.  KCOS AND
KPUB COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CLOSE TO 12Z.  FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR KALS.  GUIDANCE IS
CONFLICTING WITH ONE SET KEEPING IT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE
OTHER INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY.  NOT REALLY SURE WHAT TO EXPECT.  MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH BUT WITHOUT ANY RECENT PRECIPITATION NOT
SURE IF IT WILL SATURATE.  WILL INTRODUCE SOME MVFR FOG FOR NOW AND
AWAIT LATER MODEL DATA BEFORE TAKING IT DOWN TO THE FLOOR. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KBOU 281014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BJC THROUGH EARLY THIS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT. WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AM
THEN TURN NORTHWEST AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY
ADJUSTED DEN TAF FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MAINLY MID-HI LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TODAY. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TONIGHT WHICH
MAY DEVELOP A HIGH STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT. DECK SEEMS SHALLOW
SO NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BJC THROUGH EARLY THIS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT. WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AM
THEN TURN NORTHWEST AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY
ADJUSTED DEN TAF FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MAINLY MID-HI LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TODAY. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TONIGHT WHICH
MAY DEVELOP A HIGH STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT. DECK SEEMS SHALLOW
SO NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BJC THROUGH EARLY THIS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT. WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AM
THEN TURN NORTHWEST AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY
ADJUSTED DEN TAF FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MAINLY MID-HI LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TODAY. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TONIGHT WHICH
MAY DEVELOP A HIGH STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT. DECK SEEMS SHALLOW
SO NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BJC THROUGH EARLY THIS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT. WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AM
THEN TURN NORTHWEST AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY
ADJUSTED DEN TAF FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MAINLY MID-HI LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TODAY. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TONIGHT WHICH
MAY DEVELOP A HIGH STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT. DECK SEEMS SHALLOW
SO NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281014
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
BIT HIGHER IN ZONE 31 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES BY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS ON
THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT AS AIRMASS
DECOUPLES AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE MOVES EAST OF COLORADO.

INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE NOTED SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS AS 88D STILL SHOWING NICE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS
WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSIONS DISSIPATE AND
LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
WYOMING TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS ON THE PLAINS BUT COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU AS SFC HIGH
PRES OVER ERN CO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THU NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU THE AFTN SO
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  EAST
OF THE MTNS OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
HIGHS ON THU WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE
PLAINS.

ON FRI AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SWRN US WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT.  SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY
WK MID LVL ASCENT.  THUS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MTNS WITH THE
BEST CHC MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN CO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY STAY
SIMILAR TO THU DESPITE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LYR.

FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FM
THE NW. BOTH THE  ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WK SURGE OF COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO NERN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WK UPSLOPE FLOW.
MEANWHILE AT THE SAME TIME WK MID LVL ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STABLE. OVERALL WILL KEEP IN
A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF LIGHT PCPN OVER
NERN CO. WET BULB ZEROS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL MAINLY
AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER NERN CO.

BY SAT EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.  THUS
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IN
THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SAT EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY.  IN ADDITION LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW.

ON SUN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  APPEARS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHSN.  OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S.

FOR MON AND TUE RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PERIODS OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THE MTNS BOTH DAYS
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE.  THUS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SNOW.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOOTHILLS ON MON
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
DRY OVER NERN CO ON MON WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BJC THROUGH EARLY THIS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT. WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AM
THEN TURN NORTHWEST AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY
ADJUSTED DEN TAF FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MAINLY MID-HI LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TODAY. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TONIGHT WHICH
MAY DEVELOP A HIGH STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT. DECK SEEMS SHALLOW
SO NO MENTION OF ANY PRECIP.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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