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000
FXUS65 KPUB 240517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 MILES OF KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 06Z TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN
THESE TAFS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE NEW TAF ISSUANCE . ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST.  DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT THE THREE TAF SITES.
IN TAFS ONLY HAVE VCTS AS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY LONG. LOWER LEVELS AT KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD BE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. STILL..ANTICIPATING SCATTERED CONVERGE OF CONVECTION AT
THE THREE TAF SITES. -PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PGW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 240517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 MILES OF KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 06Z TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN
THESE TAFS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE NEW TAF ISSUANCE . ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST.  DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT THE THREE TAF SITES.
IN TAFS ONLY HAVE VCTS AS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY LONG. LOWER LEVELS AT KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD BE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. STILL..ANTICIPATING SCATTERED CONVERGE OF CONVECTION AT
THE THREE TAF SITES. -PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PGW



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000
FXUS65 KBOU 240305
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
905 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONE LINE OF STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOW BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN. MEANWHILE WHAT SHOULD BE THE LAST LINE OF STORMS FOR
THE NIGHT IS MOVING OUT OF DENVER...WITH ANOTHER PATCH OF DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SOME LOW POPS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA. AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO CLEARING LOOKS GOOD. MAY BE ABLE TO END THE
REMAINING PART OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY...BUT WE WILL HOLD
ON TO IT FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THE STORMS IN THE CORNER ARE SLOW
MOVING AND FLARING UP IN INTENSITY AGAIN AT THIS TIME.

TODAYS RAIN RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP IN THE SOUTH PLATTE
FLOOD FORECAST...RESULTING IN A FLOOD WARNING DOWNSTREAM AT BALZAC
ON THE MORGAN/WASHINGTON COUNTY LINE. THERE WILL BE SOME RISES ON
THE UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES...FROM THE POUDRE AROUND TO THE PLATTE
COMING OUT OF DENVER AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN...BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER STORM IS
PRESENTLY MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD.
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN HELD TO LESS THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED YET...BUT WITH SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE. THE LINEAR SHEAR PROFILE IS OVERWHELMING THE BUOYANCY OF
THE AIRMASS...SO TORNADIC STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. WILL CLEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. REST OF WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SINCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING.

AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DIES OFF...THE MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK
FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO RE-DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WRAPS INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DENVER AREA BY 04Z WITH
CLEARING FOLLOWING. AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BY 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED LIFR. THE FOG SHOULD BREAK UP
BY 16Z. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG NICELY AND ONLY
PRODUCING ABOUT ONE-THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS CONTINUES...SO WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ACROSS WELD COUNTY WITH MINOR IMPACTS. THESE FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AS THE RIVERS WILL BE SLOW
TO RECEDE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240305
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
905 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONE LINE OF STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOW BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN. MEANWHILE WHAT SHOULD BE THE LAST LINE OF STORMS FOR
THE NIGHT IS MOVING OUT OF DENVER...WITH ANOTHER PATCH OF DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SOME LOW POPS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA. AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO CLEARING LOOKS GOOD. MAY BE ABLE TO END THE
REMAINING PART OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY...BUT WE WILL HOLD
ON TO IT FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THE STORMS IN THE CORNER ARE SLOW
MOVING AND FLARING UP IN INTENSITY AGAIN AT THIS TIME.

TODAYS RAIN RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP IN THE SOUTH PLATTE
FLOOD FORECAST...RESULTING IN A FLOOD WARNING DOWNSTREAM AT BALZAC
ON THE MORGAN/WASHINGTON COUNTY LINE. THERE WILL BE SOME RISES ON
THE UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES...FROM THE POUDRE AROUND TO THE PLATTE
COMING OUT OF DENVER AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN...BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER STORM IS
PRESENTLY MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD.
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN HELD TO LESS THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED YET...BUT WITH SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE. THE LINEAR SHEAR PROFILE IS OVERWHELMING THE BUOYANCY OF
THE AIRMASS...SO TORNADIC STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. WILL CLEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. REST OF WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SINCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING.

AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DIES OFF...THE MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK
FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO RE-DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WRAPS INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DENVER AREA BY 04Z WITH
CLEARING FOLLOWING. AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BY 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED LIFR. THE FOG SHOULD BREAK UP
BY 16Z. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG NICELY AND ONLY
PRODUCING ABOUT ONE-THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS CONTINUES...SO WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ACROSS WELD COUNTY WITH MINOR IMPACTS. THESE FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AS THE RIVERS WILL BE SLOW
TO RECEDE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS


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000
FXUS65 KGJT 232225
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PASSING STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.
EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS
INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232225
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PASSING STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.
EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS
INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232225
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PASSING STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.
EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS
INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232225
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PASSING STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.
EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS
INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232225
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PASSING STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.
EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS
INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232225
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PASSING STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.
EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS
INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 232145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING A THREAT...THERE COULD
ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING A THREAT...THERE COULD
ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 232133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING A THREAT...THERE COULD
ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KBOU 232121
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER STORM IS
PRESENTLY MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD.
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN HELD TO LESS THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED YET...BUT WITH SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE. THE LINEAR SHEAR PROFILE IS OVERWHELMING THE BUOYANCY OF
THE AIRMASS...SO TORNADIC STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. WILL CLEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. REST OF WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SINCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING.

AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DIES OFF...THE MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK
FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO RE-DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WRAPS INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED PAST THE AIRPORT...BUT NEW
CELLS ARE NOW MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM
HAS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHEAST TRACK...AND MAY MISS KDEN. WILL
STILL MENTION A FEW MORE HOURS OF THUNDER IN THE DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS. OVERNIGHT...A REPEAT OF THIS MORING IS POSSIBLE WITH FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOLEST PART OF THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE OVER DENVER...LEADING TO THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG NICELY AND ONLY
PRODUCING ABOUT ONE-THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS CONTINUES...SO WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ACROSS WELD COUNTY WITH MINOR IMPACTS. THESE FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AS THE RIVERS WILL BE SLOW
TO RECEDE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 232121
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER STORM IS
PRESENTLY MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD.
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN HELD TO LESS THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED YET...BUT WITH SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE. THE LINEAR SHEAR PROFILE IS OVERWHELMING THE BUOYANCY OF
THE AIRMASS...SO TORNADIC STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. WILL CLEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. REST OF WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SINCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING.

AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DIES OFF...THE MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK
FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO RE-DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WRAPS INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED PAST THE AIRPORT...BUT NEW
CELLS ARE NOW MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM
HAS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHEAST TRACK...AND MAY MISS KDEN. WILL
STILL MENTION A FEW MORE HOURS OF THUNDER IN THE DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS. OVERNIGHT...A REPEAT OF THIS MORING IS POSSIBLE WITH FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOLEST PART OF THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE OVER DENVER...LEADING TO THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG NICELY AND ONLY
PRODUCING ABOUT ONE-THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS CONTINUES...SO WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ACROSS WELD COUNTY WITH MINOR IMPACTS. THESE FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AS THE RIVERS WILL BE SLOW
TO RECEDE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 232121
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER STORM IS
PRESENTLY MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD.
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN HELD TO LESS THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED YET...BUT WITH SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE. THE LINEAR SHEAR PROFILE IS OVERWHELMING THE BUOYANCY OF
THE AIRMASS...SO TORNADIC STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. WILL CLEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. REST OF WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SINCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING.

AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DIES OFF...THE MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK
FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO RE-DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WRAPS INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED PAST THE AIRPORT...BUT NEW
CELLS ARE NOW MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM
HAS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHEAST TRACK...AND MAY MISS KDEN. WILL
STILL MENTION A FEW MORE HOURS OF THUNDER IN THE DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS. OVERNIGHT...A REPEAT OF THIS MORING IS POSSIBLE WITH FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOLEST PART OF THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE OVER DENVER...LEADING TO THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG NICELY AND ONLY
PRODUCING ABOUT ONE-THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS CONTINUES...SO WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ACROSS WELD COUNTY WITH MINOR IMPACTS. THESE FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AS THE RIVERS WILL BE SLOW
TO RECEDE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 232121
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER STORM IS
PRESENTLY MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD.
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN HELD TO LESS THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED YET...BUT WITH SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE. THE LINEAR SHEAR PROFILE IS OVERWHELMING THE BUOYANCY OF
THE AIRMASS...SO TORNADIC STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. WILL CLEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. REST OF WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SINCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING.

AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DIES OFF...THE MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK
FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO RE-DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WRAPS INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED PAST THE AIRPORT...BUT NEW
CELLS ARE NOW MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM
HAS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHEAST TRACK...AND MAY MISS KDEN. WILL
STILL MENTION A FEW MORE HOURS OF THUNDER IN THE DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS. OVERNIGHT...A REPEAT OF THIS MORING IS POSSIBLE WITH FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOLEST PART OF THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE OVER DENVER...LEADING TO THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG NICELY AND ONLY
PRODUCING ABOUT ONE-THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS CONTINUES...SO WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ACROSS WELD COUNTY WITH MINOR IMPACTS. THESE FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AS THE RIVERS WILL BE SLOW
TO RECEDE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231911
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
111 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MVFR OR
LOW VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231911
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
111 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MVFR OR
LOW VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231731
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MVFR OR
LOW VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231633
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO CLEAN OUT THE AREAS OF FOG
THAT DEVELOPED ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARK COUNTY THIS MORNING
WHICH IS TESTAMENT TO HOW UNSTABLE THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS IS GOING
TO BE TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL PRODUCE PROBLEMS
BECAUSE OF THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE QUICK TO DEVELOP SINCE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TO ACT AS A CAP. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY FAST...GIVEN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID LEVELS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ABOVE THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THRU TONIGHT.  QG FIELDS SHOW MID LVL ASCENT THRU THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM
THE CNTRL MTNS INTO SERN CO WITH MAINLY SELY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW A DENVER CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY DVLP
BY EARLY AFTN WITH A CONVERGENCE ZN OVER DENVER OR JUST TO THE EAST.

SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS SVR POTENTIAL IT APPEARS HIGHS OVER NERN
CO MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THEY MAY REACH
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR SO EXPECT A FEW SVR
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES DUE TO LOW LCLS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO HOWEVER THE MID LVL ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT FM SW TO
NE. MAY SEE SOME FOG DVLP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

M.O.T.S...MUCH OF THE SAME BEST DESCRIBES THE DAILY WEATHER CYCLE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LET`S START WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHS REPEATEDLY FORMING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A CONTINUOUS FEED OF SUBTROPICAL
AIR UP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR ONSHORE IN SRN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED T-STORMS AND LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. PROGGED 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1/10TH TO 3/10TH INCH BY EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO WEAKER FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPS. SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE MUCH LOWER. MODELS LIFT THIS
TROUGH NEWRD OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH
POSITIONS NERN COLORADO IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER NWLY FLOW
TO START THE DAY. BUT BY AFTERNOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN
WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MTNS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS. ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
EVEN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
STILL STG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS. NOTHING SEVERE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. AS IT DOES SO...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT PUMPS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
THE DAY BEFORE AND WITH MEAN LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE...ODDS INCREASE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHEN THE WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE DEGREE OF IMPACT IT`LL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NERN
COLORADO ERLY ON THURSDAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING HOG WILD
WITH PRECIP THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TOGETHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. FRIDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE WETTER AND COOLER YET IF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRODUCT OF DEEP MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER E-CNTRL COLORADO.
M.O.T.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AIRPORTS WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS
LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
MOVING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION. AFTER THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING SHORTLY AFTER NOON MDT...THEY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAY SEE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.  IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IN WELD COUNTY AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MORGAN COUNTY...AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231633
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO CLEAN OUT THE AREAS OF FOG
THAT DEVELOPED ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARK COUNTY THIS MORNING
WHICH IS TESTAMENT TO HOW UNSTABLE THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS IS GOING
TO BE TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL PRODUCE PROBLEMS
BECAUSE OF THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE QUICK TO DEVELOP SINCE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TO ACT AS A CAP. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY FAST...GIVEN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID LEVELS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ABOVE THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THRU TONIGHT.  QG FIELDS SHOW MID LVL ASCENT THRU THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM
THE CNTRL MTNS INTO SERN CO WITH MAINLY SELY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW A DENVER CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY DVLP
BY EARLY AFTN WITH A CONVERGENCE ZN OVER DENVER OR JUST TO THE EAST.

SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS SVR POTENTIAL IT APPEARS HIGHS OVER NERN
CO MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THEY MAY REACH
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR SO EXPECT A FEW SVR
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES DUE TO LOW LCLS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO HOWEVER THE MID LVL ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT FM SW TO
NE. MAY SEE SOME FOG DVLP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

M.O.T.S...MUCH OF THE SAME BEST DESCRIBES THE DAILY WEATHER CYCLE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LET`S START WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHS REPEATEDLY FORMING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A CONTINUOUS FEED OF SUBTROPICAL
AIR UP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR ONSHORE IN SRN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED T-STORMS AND LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. PROGGED 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1/10TH TO 3/10TH INCH BY EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO WEAKER FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPS. SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE MUCH LOWER. MODELS LIFT THIS
TROUGH NEWRD OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH
POSITIONS NERN COLORADO IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER NWLY FLOW
TO START THE DAY. BUT BY AFTERNOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN
WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MTNS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS. ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
EVEN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
STILL STG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS. NOTHING SEVERE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. AS IT DOES SO...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT PUMPS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
THE DAY BEFORE AND WITH MEAN LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE...ODDS INCREASE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHEN THE WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE DEGREE OF IMPACT IT`LL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NERN
COLORADO ERLY ON THURSDAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING HOG WILD
WITH PRECIP THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TOGETHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. FRIDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE WETTER AND COOLER YET IF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRODUCT OF DEEP MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER E-CNTRL COLORADO.
M.O.T.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AIRPORTS WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS
LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
MOVING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION. AFTER THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING SHORTLY AFTER NOON MDT...THEY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAY SEE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.  IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IN WELD COUNTY AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MORGAN COUNTY...AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231633
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO CLEAN OUT THE AREAS OF FOG
THAT DEVELOPED ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARK COUNTY THIS MORNING
WHICH IS TESTAMENT TO HOW UNSTABLE THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS IS GOING
TO BE TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL PRODUCE PROBLEMS
BECAUSE OF THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE QUICK TO DEVELOP SINCE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TO ACT AS A CAP. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY FAST...GIVEN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID LEVELS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ABOVE THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THRU TONIGHT.  QG FIELDS SHOW MID LVL ASCENT THRU THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM
THE CNTRL MTNS INTO SERN CO WITH MAINLY SELY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW A DENVER CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY DVLP
BY EARLY AFTN WITH A CONVERGENCE ZN OVER DENVER OR JUST TO THE EAST.

SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS SVR POTENTIAL IT APPEARS HIGHS OVER NERN
CO MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THEY MAY REACH
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR SO EXPECT A FEW SVR
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES DUE TO LOW LCLS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO HOWEVER THE MID LVL ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT FM SW TO
NE. MAY SEE SOME FOG DVLP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

M.O.T.S...MUCH OF THE SAME BEST DESCRIBES THE DAILY WEATHER CYCLE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LET`S START WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHS REPEATEDLY FORMING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A CONTINUOUS FEED OF SUBTROPICAL
AIR UP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR ONSHORE IN SRN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED T-STORMS AND LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. PROGGED 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1/10TH TO 3/10TH INCH BY EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO WEAKER FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPS. SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE MUCH LOWER. MODELS LIFT THIS
TROUGH NEWRD OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH
POSITIONS NERN COLORADO IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER NWLY FLOW
TO START THE DAY. BUT BY AFTERNOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN
WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MTNS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS. ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
EVEN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
STILL STG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS. NOTHING SEVERE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. AS IT DOES SO...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT PUMPS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
THE DAY BEFORE AND WITH MEAN LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE...ODDS INCREASE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHEN THE WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE DEGREE OF IMPACT IT`LL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NERN
COLORADO ERLY ON THURSDAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING HOG WILD
WITH PRECIP THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TOGETHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. FRIDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE WETTER AND COOLER YET IF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRODUCT OF DEEP MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER E-CNTRL COLORADO.
M.O.T.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AIRPORTS WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS
LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
MOVING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION. AFTER THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING SHORTLY AFTER NOON MDT...THEY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAY SEE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.  IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IN WELD COUNTY AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MORGAN COUNTY...AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231633
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO CLEAN OUT THE AREAS OF FOG
THAT DEVELOPED ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARK COUNTY THIS MORNING
WHICH IS TESTAMENT TO HOW UNSTABLE THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS IS GOING
TO BE TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL PRODUCE PROBLEMS
BECAUSE OF THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE QUICK TO DEVELOP SINCE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TO ACT AS A CAP. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY FAST...GIVEN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID LEVELS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ABOVE THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THRU TONIGHT.  QG FIELDS SHOW MID LVL ASCENT THRU THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM
THE CNTRL MTNS INTO SERN CO WITH MAINLY SELY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW A DENVER CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY DVLP
BY EARLY AFTN WITH A CONVERGENCE ZN OVER DENVER OR JUST TO THE EAST.

SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS SVR POTENTIAL IT APPEARS HIGHS OVER NERN
CO MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THEY MAY REACH
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR SO EXPECT A FEW SVR
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES DUE TO LOW LCLS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO HOWEVER THE MID LVL ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT FM SW TO
NE. MAY SEE SOME FOG DVLP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

M.O.T.S...MUCH OF THE SAME BEST DESCRIBES THE DAILY WEATHER CYCLE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LET`S START WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHS REPEATEDLY FORMING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A CONTINUOUS FEED OF SUBTROPICAL
AIR UP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR ONSHORE IN SRN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED T-STORMS AND LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. PROGGED 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1/10TH TO 3/10TH INCH BY EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO WEAKER FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPS. SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE MUCH LOWER. MODELS LIFT THIS
TROUGH NEWRD OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH
POSITIONS NERN COLORADO IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER NWLY FLOW
TO START THE DAY. BUT BY AFTERNOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN
WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MTNS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS. ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
EVEN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
STILL STG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS. NOTHING SEVERE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. AS IT DOES SO...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT PUMPS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
THE DAY BEFORE AND WITH MEAN LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE...ODDS INCREASE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHEN THE WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE DEGREE OF IMPACT IT`LL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NERN
COLORADO ERLY ON THURSDAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING HOG WILD
WITH PRECIP THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TOGETHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. FRIDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE WETTER AND COOLER YET IF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRODUCT OF DEEP MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER E-CNTRL COLORADO.
M.O.T.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AIRPORTS WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS
LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
MOVING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION. AFTER THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING SHORTLY AFTER NOON MDT...THEY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAY SEE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.  IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IN WELD COUNTY AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MORGAN COUNTY...AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...RPK



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KPUB 231126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OF A
TRINIDAD TO HASWELL LINE. LIGHT RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FALLING OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL MAY BE FALLING OUT OF STRONGER CORES.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM NEAR SAN LUIS...NORTHEAST TO COLORADO CITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AN MCS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH
8 AM.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TODAY...VERY DYNAMIC SET UP FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SENDING A STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY NORTH ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED FORECAST EVOLUTION.  EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING CLEARING INTO KANSAS AROUND 8 AM.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE DRYLINE SETTING UP FROM
NEAR FOUNTAIN...SOUTHEAST TOWARD KIM BY 11 AM AND CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THROUGH NOON.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS DEEP WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE STRONG...AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH 6 KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH CELLS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH
HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.  MODELS
ALL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A
PUEBLO TO KIM LINE...AND SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HRRR/RAP/NAM 4KM...SHOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PUEBLO AND INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.  IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODING ON ROADWAYS...REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  PEA
SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN
SCARS.  SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT WITH AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE INTO WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING LIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9
KFT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS
TRACK WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MIXED IN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT KILLING ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM THREAT. THEY DO TEND TO
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THESE 2
DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY INDICATED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PRETTY QUESTIONABLE RIGHT NOW. OLD RUNS
HAD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PASSING EAST ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD PULLING SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN MOISTURE UP INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS JUST IN NOW SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE END
RESULT IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION INDICATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THEN ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...GENERATING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS. INTERESTING CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS. COULD BE
JUST A FLUKE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z RUN. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS LIKELY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.  LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR-LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS WILL BE FROM 19Z THROUGH
03Z/SUN.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS.  LOWERED CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-
LIFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 17Z AND THROUGH 00Z/SUN.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230955
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230955
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230955
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230955
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230945
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
345 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THRU TONIGHT.  QG FIELDS SHOW MID LVL ASCENT THRU THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM
THE CNTRL MTNS INTO SERN CO WITH MAINLY SELY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW A DENVER CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY DVLP
BY EARLY AFTN WITH A CONVERGENCE ZN OVER DENVER OR JUST TO THE EAST.

SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS SVR POTENTIAL IT APPEARS HIGHS OVER NERN
CO MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THEY MAY REACH
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR SO EXPECT A FEW SVR
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES DUE TO LOW LCLS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO HOWEVER THE MID LVL ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT FM SW TO
NE. MAY SEE SOME FOG DVLP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

M.O.T.S...MUCH OF THE SAME BEST DESCRIBES THE DAILY WEATHER CYCLE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LET`S START WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHS REPEATEDLY FORMING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A CONTINUOUS FEED OF SUBTROPICAL
AIR UP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR ONSHORE IN SRN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED T-STORMS AND LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. PROGGED 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1/10TH TO 3/10TH INCH BY EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO WEAKER FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPS. SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE MUCH LOWER. MODELS LIFT THIS
TROUGH NEWRD OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH
POSITIONS NERN COLORADO IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER NWLY FLOW
TO START THE DAY. BUT BY AFTERNOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN
WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MTNS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS. ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
EVEN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
STILL STG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS. NOTHING SEVERE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. AS IT DOES SO...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT PUMPS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
THE DAY BEFORE AND WITH MEAN LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE...ODDS INCREASE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHEN THE WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE DEGREE OF IMPACT IT`LL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NERN
COLORADO ERLY ON THURSDAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING HOG WILD
WITH PRECIP THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TOGETHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. FRIDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE WETTER AND COOLER YET IF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRODUCT OF DEEP MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER E-CNTRL COLORADO.
M.O.T.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A WK DENVER CYCLONE WAS OVER DENVER WHICH HAS KEPT THE BRUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE NORTH OF DIA.  THE HRRR AND RAP STILL SHOW
THAT SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG MAY DVLP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE 10Z-14Z
TIME PERIOD SO WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR. OTHERWISE
CEILINGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR THRU 16Z. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY ENDING BY
23Z IF HRRR/RAP CAN BE BELIEVED. MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH VSBY DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE ENE BY
EARLY AFTN.

FOR TONIGHT THE SHOWER/TSTM THREAT SHOULD END BY 02Z WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY NWLY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT DRAINAGE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAY SEE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.  IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IN WELD COUNTY AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MORGAN COUNTY...AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ042-044>046-048>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230945
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
345 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THRU TONIGHT.  QG FIELDS SHOW MID LVL ASCENT THRU THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM
THE CNTRL MTNS INTO SERN CO WITH MAINLY SELY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW A DENVER CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY DVLP
BY EARLY AFTN WITH A CONVERGENCE ZN OVER DENVER OR JUST TO THE EAST.

SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS SVR POTENTIAL IT APPEARS HIGHS OVER NERN
CO MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THEY MAY REACH
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR SO EXPECT A FEW SVR
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES DUE TO LOW LCLS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO HOWEVER THE MID LVL ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT FM SW TO
NE. MAY SEE SOME FOG DVLP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

M.O.T.S...MUCH OF THE SAME BEST DESCRIBES THE DAILY WEATHER CYCLE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LET`S START WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHS REPEATEDLY FORMING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A CONTINUOUS FEED OF SUBTROPICAL
AIR UP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR ONSHORE IN SRN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED T-STORMS AND LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. PROGGED 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1/10TH TO 3/10TH INCH BY EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO WEAKER FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPS. SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE MUCH LOWER. MODELS LIFT THIS
TROUGH NEWRD OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH
POSITIONS NERN COLORADO IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER NWLY FLOW
TO START THE DAY. BUT BY AFTERNOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN
WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MTNS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS. ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
EVEN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
STILL STG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS. NOTHING SEVERE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. AS IT DOES SO...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT PUMPS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
THE DAY BEFORE AND WITH MEAN LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE...ODDS INCREASE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHEN THE WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE DEGREE OF IMPACT IT`LL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NERN
COLORADO ERLY ON THURSDAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING HOG WILD
WITH PRECIP THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TOGETHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. FRIDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE WETTER AND COOLER YET IF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRODUCT OF DEEP MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER E-CNTRL COLORADO.
M.O.T.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A WK DENVER CYCLONE WAS OVER DENVER WHICH HAS KEPT THE BRUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE NORTH OF DIA.  THE HRRR AND RAP STILL SHOW
THAT SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG MAY DVLP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE 10Z-14Z
TIME PERIOD SO WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR. OTHERWISE
CEILINGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR THRU 16Z. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY ENDING BY
23Z IF HRRR/RAP CAN BE BELIEVED. MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH VSBY DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE ENE BY
EARLY AFTN.

FOR TONIGHT THE SHOWER/TSTM THREAT SHOULD END BY 02Z WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY NWLY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT DRAINAGE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAY SEE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.  IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IN WELD COUNTY AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MORGAN COUNTY...AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ042-044>046-048>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230945
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
345 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THRU TONIGHT.  QG FIELDS SHOW MID LVL ASCENT THRU THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM
THE CNTRL MTNS INTO SERN CO WITH MAINLY SELY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW A DENVER CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY DVLP
BY EARLY AFTN WITH A CONVERGENCE ZN OVER DENVER OR JUST TO THE EAST.

SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS SVR POTENTIAL IT APPEARS HIGHS OVER NERN
CO MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THEY MAY REACH
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR SO EXPECT A FEW SVR
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES DUE TO LOW LCLS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO HOWEVER THE MID LVL ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT FM SW TO
NE. MAY SEE SOME FOG DVLP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

M.O.T.S...MUCH OF THE SAME BEST DESCRIBES THE DAILY WEATHER CYCLE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LET`S START WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHS REPEATEDLY FORMING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A CONTINUOUS FEED OF SUBTROPICAL
AIR UP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR ONSHORE IN SRN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED T-STORMS AND LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. PROGGED 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1/10TH TO 3/10TH INCH BY EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO WEAKER FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPS. SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE MUCH LOWER. MODELS LIFT THIS
TROUGH NEWRD OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH
POSITIONS NERN COLORADO IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER NWLY FLOW
TO START THE DAY. BUT BY AFTERNOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN
WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MTNS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS. ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
EVEN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
STILL STG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS. NOTHING SEVERE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. AS IT DOES SO...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT PUMPS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
THE DAY BEFORE AND WITH MEAN LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE...ODDS INCREASE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHEN THE WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE DEGREE OF IMPACT IT`LL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NERN
COLORADO ERLY ON THURSDAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING HOG WILD
WITH PRECIP THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TOGETHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. FRIDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE WETTER AND COOLER YET IF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRODUCT OF DEEP MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER E-CNTRL COLORADO.
M.O.T.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A WK DENVER CYCLONE WAS OVER DENVER WHICH HAS KEPT THE BRUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE NORTH OF DIA.  THE HRRR AND RAP STILL SHOW
THAT SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG MAY DVLP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE 10Z-14Z
TIME PERIOD SO WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR. OTHERWISE
CEILINGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR THRU 16Z. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY ENDING BY
23Z IF HRRR/RAP CAN BE BELIEVED. MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH VSBY DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE ENE BY
EARLY AFTN.

FOR TONIGHT THE SHOWER/TSTM THREAT SHOULD END BY 02Z WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY NWLY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT DRAINAGE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAY SEE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.  IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IN WELD COUNTY AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MORGAN COUNTY...AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ042-044>046-048>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230945
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
345 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THRU TONIGHT.  QG FIELDS SHOW MID LVL ASCENT THRU THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM
THE CNTRL MTNS INTO SERN CO WITH MAINLY SELY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW A DENVER CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY DVLP
BY EARLY AFTN WITH A CONVERGENCE ZN OVER DENVER OR JUST TO THE EAST.

SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS SVR POTENTIAL IT APPEARS HIGHS OVER NERN
CO MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THEY MAY REACH
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR SO EXPECT A FEW SVR
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES DUE TO LOW LCLS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO HOWEVER THE MID LVL ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT FM SW TO
NE. MAY SEE SOME FOG DVLP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

M.O.T.S...MUCH OF THE SAME BEST DESCRIBES THE DAILY WEATHER CYCLE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LET`S START WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHS REPEATEDLY FORMING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A CONTINUOUS FEED OF SUBTROPICAL
AIR UP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR ONSHORE IN SRN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED T-STORMS AND LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. PROGGED 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1/10TH TO 3/10TH INCH BY EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO WEAKER FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPS. SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE MUCH LOWER. MODELS LIFT THIS
TROUGH NEWRD OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH
POSITIONS NERN COLORADO IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER NWLY FLOW
TO START THE DAY. BUT BY AFTERNOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN
WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MTNS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS. ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
EVEN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
STILL STG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS. NOTHING SEVERE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. AS IT DOES SO...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT PUMPS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
THE DAY BEFORE AND WITH MEAN LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE...ODDS INCREASE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHEN THE WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE DEGREE OF IMPACT IT`LL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NERN
COLORADO ERLY ON THURSDAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING HOG WILD
WITH PRECIP THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TOGETHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. FRIDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE WETTER AND COOLER YET IF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRODUCT OF DEEP MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER E-CNTRL COLORADO.
M.O.T.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A WK DENVER CYCLONE WAS OVER DENVER WHICH HAS KEPT THE BRUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE NORTH OF DIA.  THE HRRR AND RAP STILL SHOW
THAT SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG MAY DVLP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE 10Z-14Z
TIME PERIOD SO WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR. OTHERWISE
CEILINGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR THRU 16Z. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY ENDING BY
23Z IF HRRR/RAP CAN BE BELIEVED. MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH VSBY DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE ENE BY
EARLY AFTN.

FOR TONIGHT THE SHOWER/TSTM THREAT SHOULD END BY 02Z WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY NWLY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT DRAINAGE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAY SEE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.  IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IN WELD COUNTY AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MORGAN COUNTY...AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ042-044>046-048>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK




000
FXUS65 KPUB 230521
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE KALS TAF SITE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 230521
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE KALS TAF SITE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 230521
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE KALS TAF SITE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230403
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1003 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230403
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1003 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230403
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1003 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230340 AAA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
940 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WEAK QG ASCENT OVER NERN COLORADO AT THE PRESENT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IN SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE
WITNESSED A MODEST REDUCTION IN T-STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE GROWN IN
NUMBER ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM ON
THE PLAINS...SPECIFICALLY IN THE AKRON AREA WHERE THE PREVAILING
VSBY HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SHOULD SEE SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR...THE DENVER METRO AREA AND
POINTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE METRO AREA. WHEREAS T-STORMS
PRESENTLY CONCENTRATED IN THE LINCOLN COUNTY AREA SHOULD SHRINK IN
COVERAGE AS THEY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA. BELIEVE
THESE STORMS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH...
THOUGH EMBEDDED CONVECTION COULD DEPOSIT A QUICK HALF INCH
RESULTING IN MINOR STREET AND GULLY FLOODING. 06Z AND BEYOND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES ALLOWING
COOLING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...IN SOME AREAS DENSE FOG REDUCING
VSBYS DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. SHOULD SEE FOG FORM IN THE DENVER
METRO AREA NOT LONG AFTER SHOWERS MOVE OUT AS TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS
ARE ALREADY 1 TO 2 DEG F. UPDATED THE 1ST PERIOD FCST GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FOR GREATER FOG COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATE (FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA NEXT 1-3 HOURS MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND FOG. ONCE THESE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF THE METRO AREA...SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 PM AND 12 AM MDT
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OR ADVECT IN FROM THE
PLAINS. VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO BELOW 3 MILES IN THE FOG AFTER 1
PM AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/8 MILE AFTER 3 AM AT DENVER
AREA TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE THIS FOG GRADUALLY RECEDE FROM THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE NOT TOO LOOK AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER
AIR DRAINS DOWN OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS UPPER DISTURBANCE HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FORMING IN THE WARM AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
COOLER AIR PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
WITH THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT A THREAT.
SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS COOLS FURTHER AND
STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FOR
TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL BE EJECTING OVER WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO SET THE
STAGE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND ALSO MENTIONED THAT
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF DENVER DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUD...DRIZZLE
AND FOG SUNDAY MORNING ON THE PLAINS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AS MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WRAPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

ON MONDAY THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE MODELS SHOWING INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST. GFS SOUNDING SHOW
CAPES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SOME SHEAR.
THEREFORE...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE
GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE
POPS SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS
MOVE OVER. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
THIS MAY DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOW IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER TODAY WERE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY SMALL
RISES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED ON LOCAL RIVERS. SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT BE OF TOO MUCH ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL BE GIVEN AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD TO
RECOVER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BUT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF WILL BE FAST TO BEGIN. FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IT IS
HARD TO TELL AT THIS TIME WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS GOING TO BE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE IN LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES...AND WILL BE THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230340 AAA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
940 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WEAK QG ASCENT OVER NERN COLORADO AT THE PRESENT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IN SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE
WITNESSED A MODEST REDUCTION IN T-STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE GROWN IN
NUMBER ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM ON
THE PLAINS...SPECIFICALLY IN THE AKRON AREA WHERE THE PREVAILING
VSBY HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SHOULD SEE SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR...THE DENVER METRO AREA AND
POINTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE METRO AREA. WHEREAS T-STORMS
PRESENTLY CONCENTRATED IN THE LINCOLN COUNTY AREA SHOULD SHRINK IN
COVERAGE AS THEY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA. BELIEVE
THESE STORMS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH...
THOUGH EMBEDDED CONVECTION COULD DEPOSIT A QUICK HALF INCH
RESULTING IN MINOR STREET AND GULLY FLOODING. 06Z AND BEYOND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES ALLOWING
COOLING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...IN SOME AREAS DENSE FOG REDUCING
VSBYS DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. SHOULD SEE FOG FORM IN THE DENVER
METRO AREA NOT LONG AFTER SHOWERS MOVE OUT AS TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS
ARE ALREADY 1 TO 2 DEG F. UPDATED THE 1ST PERIOD FCST GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FOR GREATER FOG COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATE (FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA NEXT 1-3 HOURS MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND FOG. ONCE THESE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF THE METRO AREA...SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 PM AND 12 AM MDT
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OR ADVECT IN FROM THE
PLAINS. VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO BELOW 3 MILES IN THE FOG AFTER 1
PM AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/8 MILE AFTER 3 AM AT DENVER
AREA TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE THIS FOG GRADUALLY RECEDE FROM THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE NOT TOO LOOK AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER
AIR DRAINS DOWN OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS UPPER DISTURBANCE HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FORMING IN THE WARM AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
COOLER AIR PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
WITH THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT A THREAT.
SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS COOLS FURTHER AND
STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FOR
TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL BE EJECTING OVER WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO SET THE
STAGE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND ALSO MENTIONED THAT
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF DENVER DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUD...DRIZZLE
AND FOG SUNDAY MORNING ON THE PLAINS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AS MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WRAPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

ON MONDAY THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE MODELS SHOWING INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST. GFS SOUNDING SHOW
CAPES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SOME SHEAR.
THEREFORE...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE
GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE
POPS SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS
MOVE OVER. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
THIS MAY DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOW IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER TODAY WERE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY SMALL
RISES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED ON LOCAL RIVERS. SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT BE OF TOO MUCH ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL BE GIVEN AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD TO
RECOVER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BUT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF WILL BE FAST TO BEGIN. FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IT IS
HARD TO TELL AT THIS TIME WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS GOING TO BE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE IN LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES...AND WILL BE THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230340 AAA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
940 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WEAK QG ASCENT OVER NERN COLORADO AT THE PRESENT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IN SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE
WITNESSED A MODEST REDUCTION IN T-STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE GROWN IN
NUMBER ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM ON
THE PLAINS...SPECIFICALLY IN THE AKRON AREA WHERE THE PREVAILING
VSBY HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SHOULD SEE SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR...THE DENVER METRO AREA AND
POINTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE METRO AREA. WHEREAS T-STORMS
PRESENTLY CONCENTRATED IN THE LINCOLN COUNTY AREA SHOULD SHRINK IN
COVERAGE AS THEY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA. BELIEVE
THESE STORMS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH...
THOUGH EMBEDDED CONVECTION COULD DEPOSIT A QUICK HALF INCH
RESULTING IN MINOR STREET AND GULLY FLOODING. 06Z AND BEYOND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES ALLOWING
COOLING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...IN SOME AREAS DENSE FOG REDUCING
VSBYS DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. SHOULD SEE FOG FORM IN THE DENVER
METRO AREA NOT LONG AFTER SHOWERS MOVE OUT AS TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS
ARE ALREADY 1 TO 2 DEG F. UPDATED THE 1ST PERIOD FCST GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FOR GREATER FOG COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATE (FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA NEXT 1-3 HOURS MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND FOG. ONCE THESE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF THE METRO AREA...SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 PM AND 12 AM MDT
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OR ADVECT IN FROM THE
PLAINS. VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO BELOW 3 MILES IN THE FOG AFTER 1
PM AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/8 MILE AFTER 3 AM AT DENVER
AREA TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE THIS FOG GRADUALLY RECEDE FROM THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE NOT TOO LOOK AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER
AIR DRAINS DOWN OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS UPPER DISTURBANCE HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FORMING IN THE WARM AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
COOLER AIR PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
WITH THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT A THREAT.
SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS COOLS FURTHER AND
STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FOR
TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL BE EJECTING OVER WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO SET THE
STAGE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND ALSO MENTIONED THAT
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF DENVER DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUD...DRIZZLE
AND FOG SUNDAY MORNING ON THE PLAINS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AS MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WRAPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

ON MONDAY THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE MODELS SHOWING INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST. GFS SOUNDING SHOW
CAPES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SOME SHEAR.
THEREFORE...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE
GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE
POPS SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS
MOVE OVER. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
THIS MAY DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOW IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER TODAY WERE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY SMALL
RISES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED ON LOCAL RIVERS. SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT BE OF TOO MUCH ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL BE GIVEN AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD TO
RECOVER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BUT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF WILL BE FAST TO BEGIN. FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IT IS
HARD TO TELL AT THIS TIME WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS GOING TO BE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE IN LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES...AND WILL BE THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230340 AAA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
940 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WEAK QG ASCENT OVER NERN COLORADO AT THE PRESENT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IN SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE
WITNESSED A MODEST REDUCTION IN T-STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE GROWN IN
NUMBER ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM ON
THE PLAINS...SPECIFICALLY IN THE AKRON AREA WHERE THE PREVAILING
VSBY HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SHOULD SEE SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR...THE DENVER METRO AREA AND
POINTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE METRO AREA. WHEREAS T-STORMS
PRESENTLY CONCENTRATED IN THE LINCOLN COUNTY AREA SHOULD SHRINK IN
COVERAGE AS THEY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA. BELIEVE
THESE STORMS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH...
THOUGH EMBEDDED CONVECTION COULD DEPOSIT A QUICK HALF INCH
RESULTING IN MINOR STREET AND GULLY FLOODING. 06Z AND BEYOND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES ALLOWING
COOLING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...IN SOME AREAS DENSE FOG REDUCING
VSBYS DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. SHOULD SEE FOG FORM IN THE DENVER
METRO AREA NOT LONG AFTER SHOWERS MOVE OUT AS TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS
ARE ALREADY 1 TO 2 DEG F. UPDATED THE 1ST PERIOD FCST GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FOR GREATER FOG COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATE (FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA NEXT 1-3 HOURS MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND FOG. ONCE THESE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF THE METRO AREA...SOMETIME BETWEEN 11 PM AND 12 AM MDT
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OR ADVECT IN FROM THE
PLAINS. VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO BELOW 3 MILES IN THE FOG AFTER 1
PM AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/8 MILE AFTER 3 AM AT DENVER
AREA TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE THIS FOG GRADUALLY RECEDE FROM THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE NOT TOO LOOK AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER
AIR DRAINS DOWN OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS UPPER DISTURBANCE HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FORMING IN THE WARM AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
COOLER AIR PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
WITH THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT A THREAT.
SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS COOLS FURTHER AND
STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FOR
TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL BE EJECTING OVER WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO SET THE
STAGE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND ALSO MENTIONED THAT
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF DENVER DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUD...DRIZZLE
AND FOG SUNDAY MORNING ON THE PLAINS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AS MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WRAPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

ON MONDAY THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE MODELS SHOWING INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST. GFS SOUNDING SHOW
CAPES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SOME SHEAR.
THEREFORE...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE
GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE
POPS SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS
MOVE OVER. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
THIS MAY DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOW IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER TODAY WERE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY SMALL
RISES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED ON LOCAL RIVERS. SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT BE OF TOO MUCH ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL BE GIVEN AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD TO
RECOVER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BUT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF WILL BE FAST TO BEGIN. FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IT IS
HARD TO TELL AT THIS TIME WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS GOING TO BE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE IN LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES...AND WILL BE THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS
OCCURRING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. WINDS ALSO ENTERING THE EQUATION
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z BEFORE
QUIETING DOWN THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST 06Z. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
TOMORROW STARTING AFTER 18Z THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LESS. LIKE TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS
OCCURRING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. WINDS ALSO ENTERING THE EQUATION
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z BEFORE
QUIETING DOWN THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST 06Z. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
TOMORROW STARTING AFTER 18Z THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LESS. LIKE TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS
OCCURRING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. WINDS ALSO ENTERING THE EQUATION
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z BEFORE
QUIETING DOWN THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST 06Z. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
TOMORROW STARTING AFTER 18Z THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LESS. LIKE TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS
OCCURRING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. WINDS ALSO ENTERING THE EQUATION
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z BEFORE
QUIETING DOWN THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST 06Z. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
TOMORROW STARTING AFTER 18Z THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LESS. LIKE TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222159
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN
AREAS OF OBSCURATION. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING AREA
AIRPORTS STRETCHES FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 222159
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN
AREAS OF OBSCURATION. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING AREA
AIRPORTS STRETCHES FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KBOU 222140
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS UPPER DISTURBANCE HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FORMING IN THE WARM AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
COOLER AIR PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
WITH THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT A THREAT.
SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS COOLS FURTHER AND
STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FOR
TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL BE EJECTING OVER WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO SET THE
STAGE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND ALSO MENTIONED THAT
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF DENVER DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUD...DRIZZLE
AND FOG SUNDAY MORNING ON THE PLAINS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AS MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WRAPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

ON MONDAY THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE MODELS SHOWING INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST. GFS SOUNDING SHOW
CAPES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SOME SHEAR.
THEREFORE...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE
GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE
POPS SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS
MOVE OVER. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
THIS MAY DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOW IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER TODAY WERE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY SMALL
RISES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED ON LOCAL RIVERS. SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT BE OF TOO MUCH ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL BE GIVEN AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD TO
RECOVER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BUT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF WILL BE FAST TO BEGIN. FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IT IS
HARD TO TELL AT THIS TIME WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS GOING TO BE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE IN LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES...AND WILL BE THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 222140
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS UPPER DISTURBANCE HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FORMING IN THE WARM AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
COOLER AIR PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
WITH THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT A THREAT.
SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS COOLS FURTHER AND
STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FOR
TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL BE EJECTING OVER WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO SET THE
STAGE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND ALSO MENTIONED THAT
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF DENVER DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUD...DRIZZLE
AND FOG SUNDAY MORNING ON THE PLAINS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AS MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WRAPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

ON MONDAY THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE MODELS SHOWING INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST. GFS SOUNDING SHOW
CAPES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SOME SHEAR.
THEREFORE...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE
GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE
POPS SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS
MOVE OVER. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
THIS MAY DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOW IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER TODAY WERE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY SMALL
RISES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED ON LOCAL RIVERS. SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT BE OF TOO MUCH ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL BE GIVEN AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD TO
RECOVER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BUT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF WILL BE FAST TO BEGIN. FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IT IS
HARD TO TELL AT THIS TIME WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS GOING TO BE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE IN LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES...AND WILL BE THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 222140
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS UPPER DISTURBANCE HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FORMING IN THE WARM AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
COOLER AIR PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
WITH THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT A THREAT.
SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS COOLS FURTHER AND
STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FOR
TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL BE EJECTING OVER WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO SET THE
STAGE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND ALSO MENTIONED THAT
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF DENVER DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUD...DRIZZLE
AND FOG SUNDAY MORNING ON THE PLAINS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AS MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WRAPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

ON MONDAY THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE MODELS SHOWING INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST. GFS SOUNDING SHOW
CAPES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SOME SHEAR.
THEREFORE...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE
GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE
POPS SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS
MOVE OVER. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
THIS MAY DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOW IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER TODAY WERE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY SMALL
RISES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED ON LOCAL RIVERS. SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT BE OF TOO MUCH ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL BE GIVEN AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD TO
RECOVER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BUT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF WILL BE FAST TO BEGIN. FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IT IS
HARD TO TELL AT THIS TIME WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS GOING TO BE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE IN LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES...AND WILL BE THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 222047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AN UPR LOW WL BE MOVING FROM AROUND THE SRN TIP OF NV THIS
EVENING...INTO SERN UT BY 12Z SAT. THERE WL BE AT LEAST SCT
SHOWER/TSTMS OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. BY LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WL END...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THE SERN PLAINS GETTING HIT WITH A BAND
OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...SO WL KEEP RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THAT AREA. LATE TONIGHT MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

THE LOW STRATUS WL DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING HOURS SAT...POSSIBLY
HANGING ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN BORDER. THE UPR
LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PCPN WL DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SPREADING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 20S AROUND KTAD...TO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S IN EL PASO COUNTY
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINING QUITE MOIST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS
WITH LOWER TO MID 50 SFC DEW POINTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF
A DRY SLOT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS....BUT TOWARD EVENING THERE MAY
BE ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. STORMS OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1500-2500 J/KG OVR THE FAR ERN
COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NE AND WILL BE IN NE CO SAT NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE
NE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING. WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING N AND E OF OUR AREA BY SAT EVE.
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE S-SW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE CO...AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH
OUR AREA. SO...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP DURING THE
DAY...FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY SUN AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE ERN RANGES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RN OR DZ WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MON MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO NRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON THE AMT OF RAIN SUNDAY...THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP MON AFTERNOON-EVE
COULD POSE A PROBLEM FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

TUE-WED...MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NR 80 TUE AND MID 80S
FOR THE PLAINS BY WED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY 5-7 DEGREES SINCE
PERSISTENCE TENDS TO WIN OUT WHEN WE GET IN THESE WET PATTERNS.
BUT...IT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT COOL
SPELL.

NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP TO ARRIVE LATE WED OR THU. THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AS A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW FAR E THIS MOIST PLUME SETS
UP. HAVE RAISED THE ENSEMBLE POPS A BIT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...AND GIVEN THE WET
PATTERN ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY PRECIP NEXT WEEK SEEMS A DECENT BET.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL HAVE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN
CO PLAINS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO ABOUT MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE MAY AGAIN BE MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH SHOULD
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND MIDMORNING SATURDAY. KPUB SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME...HOWEVER WITH TSTMS PROBABLY BEING IN
THE VCNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...IF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KPUB WHICH COULD MEAN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE PERIOD...BUT SHOWER/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE MAY AGAIN BE MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH SHOULD
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND MIDMORNING SATURDAY. KPUB SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME...HOWEVER WITH TSTMS PROBABLY BEING IN
THE VCNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...IF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KPUB WHICH COULD MEAN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE PERIOD...BUT SHOWER/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE MAY AGAIN BE MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH SHOULD
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND MIDMORNING SATURDAY. KPUB SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME...HOWEVER WITH TSTMS PROBABLY BEING IN
THE VCNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...IF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KPUB WHICH COULD MEAN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE PERIOD...BUT SHOWER/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221739
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KCOS WL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE MAY AGAIN BE MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH SHOULD
THEN DISSIPATE AROUND MIDMORNING SATURDAY. KPUB SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME...HOWEVER WITH TSTMS PROBABLY BEING IN
THE VCNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...IF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KPUB WHICH COULD MEAN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE PERIOD...BUT SHOWER/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUN-BREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN
AREAS OF OBSCURATION. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING AREA
AIRPORTS STRETCHES FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUN-BREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN
AREAS OF OBSCURATION. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING AREA
AIRPORTS STRETCHES FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUN-BREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN
AREAS OF OBSCURATION. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING AREA
AIRPORTS STRETCHES FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUN-BREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN
AREAS OF OBSCURATION. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING AREA
AIRPORTS STRETCHES FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KBOU 221611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE TO LOWER
THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID-LEVEL
DRYING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS GOING TO CAUSE THE AIRMASS TO
BECOME CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. EACH OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE SHOWING A ROUND TO STRONG SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THIS
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...THE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. AM NOT
SURE WHETHER THE THREAT IS HIGHER IN ELBERT OR LINCOLN COUNTY...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING APPEAR TO HAVE REMAINED BELOW ONE-
HALF INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH DOES NOT HELP THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION...BUT WAS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY MODEST RISES ON RIVER
LEVELS SHOULD RESULT. AS THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS WILL SEE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY
BECOME MORE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW AND BACK EDGE OF TROF
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH BIT
OF SWIRL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIP HAS SURE TAKEN ITS TIME
GETTING HERE BUT RADAR FINALLY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. APPEARS HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND FURTHER WEST OVER THE WEST SLOPE. GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PRECIP HAS WEAKENED SOME AS IT COMES
OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE CONTINUE WEAK QG ASCENT AS
THE TROF MOVES OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THAN WEAK TO NEUTRAL
DECENT BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND .04"/HOUR. OVERALL QPF FROM
MODELS HAS ALSO DECREASED TODAY WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH ON THE PLAINS...HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
MID MORNING. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM
AS LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS OVER SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTY ARE NOW
GETTING LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT HIGH SO WILL TAPER DOWN A
BIT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLEARING AND
HEATING INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH WOULD HELP THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES
RANGE FROM 700 TO 1000J/KG FROM DENVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO APPEARS SO SORT OF CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER
DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES WHERE BOTH RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS
STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND SHEAR ALOFT COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN IMPACT. WOULD EXPECT LOWER
POPS AND LESS INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ON THE PLAINS
WITH LESS HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PAST
MIDNIGHT ON THE PLAINS GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK ASCENT FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SYNOPTICALLY...A LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC/WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS
CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER CNTRL CALIFORNIA AT THE PRESENT TIME IS
STILL FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE 500 MB LOW OVER SRN UTAH BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FYI...EARLIER GFS RUNS SHOWED THIS TROUGH
OPENING UP AS IT ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD ACRS WYOMING DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. IT NO LONGER INDICATES THAT...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY.

A DRY SLOT AT MID-LEVELS ROUNDING THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STG SOLAR HEATING SAT
MORNING TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE BNDRY LAYER EAST OF THE MTNS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MOIST
SUBTROPICAL AIR CIRCULATING WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PARTNER WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTHWARD BY A STRENGTHENING
S-SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW ON THE PLAINS. THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW A THETA-E RIDGE SURGING UP OVER WELD AND LOGAN
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW A SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN COUNTY ABOUT MIDDAY AND A SHARP
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC LOW TO THE
FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER COUNTY...AND EAST ACRS SRN PHILLIPS COUNTY.
AS MOISTURE ACCUMULATES ALONG THIS AXIS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
IS ANTICIPATED. NAM SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES ANYWHERE FROM 1900-2700
J/KG AND VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SFC LOW BY 21Z. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW NERN COLORADO UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 90-100KT JET. ALL THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF ACTIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ANYWHERE
FROM ERN LARIMER...WELD...MORGAN...NRN WASHINGTON...LOGAN...SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRINCIPLE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK BUT WITH RESPECTABLE HELICITY VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW...CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO. FARTHER SOUTH...SAY IN AND AROUND THE DENVER METRO AREA...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF A GUSTY SLY WIND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THOUGH SCATTERED POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED LATE IN THE DAY. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE HIGH RIDGES AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TOGETHER WITH T-STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT DUE IN PART TO
FAST STORM MOTIONS. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS UP AROUND 11000 FT AT MIDDAY AND LOWERING TO AROUND
10000 FT BY EVENING. SATURDAY TEMPS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST
WE`VE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS WITH MID/UPPER 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S/50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
MOIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
TEMPERATURES COOLER BY A FEW DEGS DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH
LOWER...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED...FURTHER
RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING FAST AND HIGH
SHOULD BE MINOR.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE PRODUCT OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PASSING OVER THE AREA.
STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INFLUENCE THIS DAILY CYCLE OF CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...GFS
INDICATES A SHIFT TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND
SHOWERY PRECIP TO THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WON`T STRAY TOO FAR OFF
FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR INSTANCE...NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
THE GFS IS INDICATING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A LITTLE BIT OF DRYING AT MID-LEVELS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO DE-STABILIZE...MAKING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. ANY IMPROVEMENT
OF CEILING HEIGHTS INTO THE MVFR OR VFR CATEGORY MAY BE SHORT-
LIVED AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING AND LIFTING CONDENSATION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW.

LATER TONIGHT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS MAY
ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT SYSTEM ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DON`T EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES MUCH ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR MINIMAL EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS MORNING.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
WITH STORMS AS PW VALUES ARE AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH. THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER STREAM LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING IN
LOCATIONS UNDER A PASSING STORM.

SOUTH PLATTE RIVER LEVELS STILL INCREASING ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW RISE IN RIVER LEVELS TODAY WHERE RIVER
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AT WELDONA. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER AT
GREELEY WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 221611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE TO LOWER
THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID-LEVEL
DRYING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS GOING TO CAUSE THE AIRMASS TO
BECOME CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. EACH OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE SHOWING A ROUND TO STRONG SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THIS
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...THE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. AM NOT
SURE WHETHER THE THREAT IS HIGHER IN ELBERT OR LINCOLN COUNTY...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING APPEAR TO HAVE REMAINED BELOW ONE-
HALF INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH DOES NOT HELP THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION...BUT WAS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY MODEST RISES ON RIVER
LEVELS SHOULD RESULT. AS THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS WILL SEE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY
BECOME MORE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW AND BACK EDGE OF TROF
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH BIT
OF SWIRL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIP HAS SURE TAKEN ITS TIME
GETTING HERE BUT RADAR FINALLY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. APPEARS HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND FURTHER WEST OVER THE WEST SLOPE. GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PRECIP HAS WEAKENED SOME AS IT COMES
OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE CONTINUE WEAK QG ASCENT AS
THE TROF MOVES OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THAN WEAK TO NEUTRAL
DECENT BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND .04"/HOUR. OVERALL QPF FROM
MODELS HAS ALSO DECREASED TODAY WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH ON THE PLAINS...HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
MID MORNING. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM
AS LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS OVER SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTY ARE NOW
GETTING LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT HIGH SO WILL TAPER DOWN A
BIT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLEARING AND
HEATING INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH WOULD HELP THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES
RANGE FROM 700 TO 1000J/KG FROM DENVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO APPEARS SO SORT OF CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER
DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES WHERE BOTH RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS
STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND SHEAR ALOFT COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN IMPACT. WOULD EXPECT LOWER
POPS AND LESS INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ON THE PLAINS
WITH LESS HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PAST
MIDNIGHT ON THE PLAINS GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK ASCENT FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SYNOPTICALLY...A LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC/WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS
CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER CNTRL CALIFORNIA AT THE PRESENT TIME IS
STILL FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE 500 MB LOW OVER SRN UTAH BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FYI...EARLIER GFS RUNS SHOWED THIS TROUGH
OPENING UP AS IT ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD ACRS WYOMING DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. IT NO LONGER INDICATES THAT...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY.

A DRY SLOT AT MID-LEVELS ROUNDING THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STG SOLAR HEATING SAT
MORNING TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE BNDRY LAYER EAST OF THE MTNS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MOIST
SUBTROPICAL AIR CIRCULATING WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PARTNER WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTHWARD BY A STRENGTHENING
S-SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW ON THE PLAINS. THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW A THETA-E RIDGE SURGING UP OVER WELD AND LOGAN
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW A SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN COUNTY ABOUT MIDDAY AND A SHARP
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC LOW TO THE
FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER COUNTY...AND EAST ACRS SRN PHILLIPS COUNTY.
AS MOISTURE ACCUMULATES ALONG THIS AXIS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
IS ANTICIPATED. NAM SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES ANYWHERE FROM 1900-2700
J/KG AND VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SFC LOW BY 21Z. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW NERN COLORADO UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 90-100KT JET. ALL THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF ACTIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ANYWHERE
FROM ERN LARIMER...WELD...MORGAN...NRN WASHINGTON...LOGAN...SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRINCIPLE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK BUT WITH RESPECTABLE HELICITY VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW...CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO. FARTHER SOUTH...SAY IN AND AROUND THE DENVER METRO AREA...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF A GUSTY SLY WIND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THOUGH SCATTERED POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED LATE IN THE DAY. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE HIGH RIDGES AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TOGETHER WITH T-STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT DUE IN PART TO
FAST STORM MOTIONS. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS UP AROUND 11000 FT AT MIDDAY AND LOWERING TO AROUND
10000 FT BY EVENING. SATURDAY TEMPS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST
WE`VE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS WITH MID/UPPER 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S/50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
MOIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
TEMPERATURES COOLER BY A FEW DEGS DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH
LOWER...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED...FURTHER
RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING FAST AND HIGH
SHOULD BE MINOR.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE PRODUCT OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PASSING OVER THE AREA.
STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INFLUENCE THIS DAILY CYCLE OF CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...GFS
INDICATES A SHIFT TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND
SHOWERY PRECIP TO THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WON`T STRAY TOO FAR OFF
FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR INSTANCE...NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
THE GFS IS INDICATING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A LITTLE BIT OF DRYING AT MID-LEVELS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO DE-STABILIZE...MAKING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. ANY IMPROVEMENT
OF CEILING HEIGHTS INTO THE MVFR OR VFR CATEGORY MAY BE SHORT-
LIVED AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING AND LIFTING CONDENSATION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW.

LATER TONIGHT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS MAY
ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT SYSTEM ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DON`T EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES MUCH ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR MINIMAL EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS MORNING.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
WITH STORMS AS PW VALUES ARE AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH. THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER STREAM LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING IN
LOCATIONS UNDER A PASSING STORM.

SOUTH PLATTE RIVER LEVELS STILL INCREASING ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW RISE IN RIVER LEVELS TODAY WHERE RIVER
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AT WELDONA. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER AT
GREELEY WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 221611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE TO LOWER
THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID-LEVEL
DRYING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS GOING TO CAUSE THE AIRMASS TO
BECOME CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. EACH OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE SHOWING A ROUND TO STRONG SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THIS
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...THE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. AM NOT
SURE WHETHER THE THREAT IS HIGHER IN ELBERT OR LINCOLN COUNTY...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING APPEAR TO HAVE REMAINED BELOW ONE-
HALF INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH DOES NOT HELP THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION...BUT WAS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY MODEST RISES ON RIVER
LEVELS SHOULD RESULT. AS THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS WILL SEE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY
BECOME MORE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW AND BACK EDGE OF TROF
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH BIT
OF SWIRL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIP HAS SURE TAKEN ITS TIME
GETTING HERE BUT RADAR FINALLY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. APPEARS HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND FURTHER WEST OVER THE WEST SLOPE. GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PRECIP HAS WEAKENED SOME AS IT COMES
OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE CONTINUE WEAK QG ASCENT AS
THE TROF MOVES OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THAN WEAK TO NEUTRAL
DECENT BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND .04"/HOUR. OVERALL QPF FROM
MODELS HAS ALSO DECREASED TODAY WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH ON THE PLAINS...HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
MID MORNING. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM
AS LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS OVER SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTY ARE NOW
GETTING LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT HIGH SO WILL TAPER DOWN A
BIT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLEARING AND
HEATING INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH WOULD HELP THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES
RANGE FROM 700 TO 1000J/KG FROM DENVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO APPEARS SO SORT OF CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER
DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES WHERE BOTH RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS
STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND SHEAR ALOFT COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN IMPACT. WOULD EXPECT LOWER
POPS AND LESS INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ON THE PLAINS
WITH LESS HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PAST
MIDNIGHT ON THE PLAINS GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK ASCENT FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SYNOPTICALLY...A LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC/WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS
CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER CNTRL CALIFORNIA AT THE PRESENT TIME IS
STILL FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE 500 MB LOW OVER SRN UTAH BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FYI...EARLIER GFS RUNS SHOWED THIS TROUGH
OPENING UP AS IT ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD ACRS WYOMING DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. IT NO LONGER INDICATES THAT...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY.

A DRY SLOT AT MID-LEVELS ROUNDING THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STG SOLAR HEATING SAT
MORNING TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE BNDRY LAYER EAST OF THE MTNS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MOIST
SUBTROPICAL AIR CIRCULATING WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PARTNER WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTHWARD BY A STRENGTHENING
S-SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW ON THE PLAINS. THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW A THETA-E RIDGE SURGING UP OVER WELD AND LOGAN
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW A SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN COUNTY ABOUT MIDDAY AND A SHARP
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC LOW TO THE
FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER COUNTY...AND EAST ACRS SRN PHILLIPS COUNTY.
AS MOISTURE ACCUMULATES ALONG THIS AXIS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
IS ANTICIPATED. NAM SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES ANYWHERE FROM 1900-2700
J/KG AND VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SFC LOW BY 21Z. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW NERN COLORADO UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 90-100KT JET. ALL THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF ACTIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ANYWHERE
FROM ERN LARIMER...WELD...MORGAN...NRN WASHINGTON...LOGAN...SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRINCIPLE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK BUT WITH RESPECTABLE HELICITY VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW...CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO. FARTHER SOUTH...SAY IN AND AROUND THE DENVER METRO AREA...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF A GUSTY SLY WIND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THOUGH SCATTERED POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED LATE IN THE DAY. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE HIGH RIDGES AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TOGETHER WITH T-STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT DUE IN PART TO
FAST STORM MOTIONS. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS UP AROUND 11000 FT AT MIDDAY AND LOWERING TO AROUND
10000 FT BY EVENING. SATURDAY TEMPS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST
WE`VE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS WITH MID/UPPER 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S/50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
MOIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
TEMPERATURES COOLER BY A FEW DEGS DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH
LOWER...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED...FURTHER
RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING FAST AND HIGH
SHOULD BE MINOR.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE PRODUCT OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PASSING OVER THE AREA.
STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INFLUENCE THIS DAILY CYCLE OF CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...GFS
INDICATES A SHIFT TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND
SHOWERY PRECIP TO THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WON`T STRAY TOO FAR OFF
FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR INSTANCE...NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
THE GFS IS INDICATING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A LITTLE BIT OF DRYING AT MID-LEVELS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO DE-STABILIZE...MAKING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. ANY IMPROVEMENT
OF CEILING HEIGHTS INTO THE MVFR OR VFR CATEGORY MAY BE SHORT-
LIVED AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING AND LIFTING CONDENSATION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW.

LATER TONIGHT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS MAY
ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT SYSTEM ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DON`T EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES MUCH ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR MINIMAL EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS MORNING.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
WITH STORMS AS PW VALUES ARE AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH. THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER STREAM LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING IN
LOCATIONS UNDER A PASSING STORM.

SOUTH PLATTE RIVER LEVELS STILL INCREASING ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW RISE IN RIVER LEVELS TODAY WHERE RIVER
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AT WELDONA. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER AT
GREELEY WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 221611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE TO LOWER
THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID-LEVEL
DRYING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS GOING TO CAUSE THE AIRMASS TO
BECOME CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. EACH OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE SHOWING A ROUND TO STRONG SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THIS
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...THE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. AM NOT
SURE WHETHER THE THREAT IS HIGHER IN ELBERT OR LINCOLN COUNTY...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING APPEAR TO HAVE REMAINED BELOW ONE-
HALF INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH DOES NOT HELP THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION...BUT WAS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ONLY MODEST RISES ON RIVER
LEVELS SHOULD RESULT. AS THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS WILL SEE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY
BECOME MORE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW AND BACK EDGE OF TROF
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH BIT
OF SWIRL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIP HAS SURE TAKEN ITS TIME
GETTING HERE BUT RADAR FINALLY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. APPEARS HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND FURTHER WEST OVER THE WEST SLOPE. GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PRECIP HAS WEAKENED SOME AS IT COMES
OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE CONTINUE WEAK QG ASCENT AS
THE TROF MOVES OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THAN WEAK TO NEUTRAL
DECENT BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND .04"/HOUR. OVERALL QPF FROM
MODELS HAS ALSO DECREASED TODAY WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH ON THE PLAINS...HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
MID MORNING. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM
AS LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS OVER SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTY ARE NOW
GETTING LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT HIGH SO WILL TAPER DOWN A
BIT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLEARING AND
HEATING INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH WOULD HELP THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES
RANGE FROM 700 TO 1000J/KG FROM DENVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO APPEARS SO SORT OF CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER
DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES WHERE BOTH RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS
STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND SHEAR ALOFT COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN IMPACT. WOULD EXPECT LOWER
POPS AND LESS INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ON THE PLAINS
WITH LESS HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PAST
MIDNIGHT ON THE PLAINS GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK ASCENT FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SYNOPTICALLY...A LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC/WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS
CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER CNTRL CALIFORNIA AT THE PRESENT TIME IS
STILL FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE 500 MB LOW OVER SRN UTAH BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FYI...EARLIER GFS RUNS SHOWED THIS TROUGH
OPENING UP AS IT ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD ACRS WYOMING DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. IT NO LONGER INDICATES THAT...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY.

A DRY SLOT AT MID-LEVELS ROUNDING THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STG SOLAR HEATING SAT
MORNING TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE BNDRY LAYER EAST OF THE MTNS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MOIST
SUBTROPICAL AIR CIRCULATING WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PARTNER WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTHWARD BY A STRENGTHENING
S-SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW ON THE PLAINS. THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW A THETA-E RIDGE SURGING UP OVER WELD AND LOGAN
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW A SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN COUNTY ABOUT MIDDAY AND A SHARP
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC LOW TO THE
FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER COUNTY...AND EAST ACRS SRN PHILLIPS COUNTY.
AS MOISTURE ACCUMULATES ALONG THIS AXIS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
IS ANTICIPATED. NAM SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES ANYWHERE FROM 1900-2700
J/KG AND VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SFC LOW BY 21Z. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW NERN COLORADO UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 90-100KT JET. ALL THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF ACTIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ANYWHERE
FROM ERN LARIMER...WELD...MORGAN...NRN WASHINGTON...LOGAN...SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRINCIPLE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK BUT WITH RESPECTABLE HELICITY VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW...CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO. FARTHER SOUTH...SAY IN AND AROUND THE DENVER METRO AREA...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF A GUSTY SLY WIND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THOUGH SCATTERED POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED LATE IN THE DAY. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE HIGH RIDGES AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TOGETHER WITH T-STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT DUE IN PART TO
FAST STORM MOTIONS. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS UP AROUND 11000 FT AT MIDDAY AND LOWERING TO AROUND
10000 FT BY EVENING. SATURDAY TEMPS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST
WE`VE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS WITH MID/UPPER 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S/50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
MOIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
TEMPERATURES COOLER BY A FEW DEGS DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH
LOWER...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED...FURTHER
RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING FAST AND HIGH
SHOULD BE MINOR.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE PRODUCT OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PASSING OVER THE AREA.
STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INFLUENCE THIS DAILY CYCLE OF CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...GFS
INDICATES A SHIFT TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND
SHOWERY PRECIP TO THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WON`T STRAY TOO FAR OFF
FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR INSTANCE...NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
THE GFS IS INDICATING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A LITTLE BIT OF DRYING AT MID-LEVELS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DAYTIME HEATING
WILL HELP THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO DE-STABILIZE...MAKING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. ANY IMPROVEMENT
OF CEILING HEIGHTS INTO THE MVFR OR VFR CATEGORY MAY BE SHORT-
LIVED AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING AND LIFTING CONDENSATION
LEVELS REMAIN LOW.

LATER TONIGHT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS MAY
ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT SYSTEM ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DON`T EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES MUCH ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR MINIMAL EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS MORNING.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
WITH STORMS AS PW VALUES ARE AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH. THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER STREAM LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING IN
LOCATIONS UNDER A PASSING STORM.

SOUTH PLATTE RIVER LEVELS STILL INCREASING ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW RISE IN RIVER LEVELS TODAY WHERE RIVER
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AT WELDONA. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER AT
GREELEY WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221526
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
926 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND
UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221214
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221214
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221214
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221214
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
448 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  GAUGES HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING AT BAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
INTO WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY 9 AM...GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  AN ADDITIONAL UP TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. DRY AIR WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HELP THE
AREA WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25
CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-
RES MODELS VARY IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MAINSTEM RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.  ANY RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  LOCATIONS OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
THE LOSE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO BACA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

AS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9 KFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SEE AN INCH OR
TWO. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

NEXT WAVE IN SERIES WILL NOT WASTE ANY TIME GETTING HERE WITH
IMPACTS FROM IT OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALREADY ON SATURDAY. COULD
BE A DRY LINE SETUP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY ARCHING
BACK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THIS
AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEW RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT STILL IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...IMPACTING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...REACHING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ONE
CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER COLORADO.  STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY...COULD SEE THINGS BREAK DOWN AGAIN. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA MIGRATING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC...ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS OR
HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT COULD BE BEGINNING OF NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

KALS...GENERALLY MVFR THIS MORNING DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AND
LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE AREA.  CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 19Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND COULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

KCOS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL CAUSING REDUCE VIS AND CIGS TO AROUND 500 FEET.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIELD LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER
23Z AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPUB...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS.  EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 220954
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIPITION WILL VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT KRIL...KEGE...KASE AND KTEX AND KDRO SOME SHOWERS WILL LOWER
CIGS TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL. MTS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH
THE SNOW LINE VARYING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000 FT MSL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 220954
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIPITION WILL VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT KRIL...KEGE...KASE AND KTEX AND KDRO SOME SHOWERS WILL LOWER
CIGS TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL. MTS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH
THE SNOW LINE VARYING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000 FT MSL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 220954
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIPITION WILL VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT KRIL...KEGE...KASE AND KTEX AND KDRO SOME SHOWERS WILL LOWER
CIGS TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL. MTS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH
THE SNOW LINE VARYING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000 FT MSL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KBOU 220933
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW AND BACK EDGE OF TROF
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH BIT
OF SWIRL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIP HAS SURE TAKEN ITS TIME
GETTING HERE BUT RADAR FINALLY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. APPEARS HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND FURTHER WEST OVER THE WEST SLOPE. GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PRECIP HAS WEAKENED SOME AS IT COMES
OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE CONTINUE WEAK QG ASCENT AS
THE TROF MOVES OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THAN WEAK TO NEUTRAL
DECENT BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND .04"/HOUR. OVERALL QPF FROM
MODELS HAS ALSO DECREASED TODAY WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH ON THE PLAINS...HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
MID MORNING. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM
AS LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS OVER SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTY ARE NOW
GETTING LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT HIGH SO WILL TAPER DOWN A
BIT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLEARING AND
HEATING INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH WOULD HELP THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES
RANGE FROM 700 TO 1000J/KG FROM DENVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO APPEARS SO SORT OF CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER
DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES WHERE BOTH RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS
STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND SHEAR ALOFT COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN IMPACT. WOULD EXPECT LOWER
POPS AND LESS INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ON THE PLAINS
WITH LESS HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PAST
MIDNIGHT ON THE PLAINS GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK ASCENT FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SYNOPTICALLY...A LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC/WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS
CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER CNTRL CALIFORNIA AT THE PRESENT TIME IS
STILL FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE 500 MB LOW OVER SRN UTAH BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FYI...EARLIER GFS RUNS SHOWED THIS TROUGH
OPENING UP AS IT ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD ACRS WYOMING DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. IT NO LONGER INDICATES THAT...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY.

A DRY SLOT AT MID-LEVELS ROUNDING THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STG SOLAR HEATING SAT
MORNING TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE BNDRY LAYER EAST OF THE MTNS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MOIST
SUBTROPICAL AIR CIRCULATING WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PARTNER WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTHWARD BY A STRENGTHENING
S-SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW ON THE PLAINS. THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW A THETA-E RIDGE SURGING UP OVER WELD AND LOGAN
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW A SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN COUNTY ABOUT MIDDAY AND A SHARP
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC LOW TO THE
FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER COUNTY...AND EAST ACRS SRN PHILLIPS COUNTY.
AS MOISTURE ACCUMULATES ALONG THIS AXIS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
IS ANTICIPATED. NAM SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES ANYWHERE FROM 1900-2700
J/KG AND VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SFC LOW BY 21Z. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW NERN COLORADO UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 90-100KT JET. ALL THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF ACTIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ANYWHERE
FROM ERN LARIMER...WELD...MORGAN...NRN WASHINGTON...LOGAN...SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRINCIPLE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK BUT WITH RESPECTABLE HELICITY VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW...CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO. FARTHER SOUTH...SAY IN AND AROUND THE DENVER METRO AREA...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF A GUSTY SLY WIND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THOUGH SCATTERED POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED LATE IN THE DAY. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE HIGH RIDGES AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TOGETHER WITH T-STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT DUE IN PART TO
FAST STORM MOTIONS. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS UP AROUND 11000 FT AT MIDDAY AND LOWERING TO AROUND
10000 FT BY EVENING. SATURDAY TEMPS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST
WE`VE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS WITH MID/UPPER 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S/50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
MOIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
TEMPERATURES COOLER BY A FEW DEGS DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH
LOWER...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED...FURTHER
RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING FAST AND HIGH
SHOULD BE MINOR.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE PRODUCT OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PASSING OVER THE AREA.
STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INFLUENCE THIS DAILY CYCLE OF CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...GFS
INDICATES A SHIFT TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND
SHOWERY PRECIP TO THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WON`T STRAY TOO FAR OFF
FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR INSTANCE...NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
THE GFS IS INDICATING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS BECOMING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND NUMEROUS AS UPPER TROF
APPROACHES TERMINALS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN A BREAK WITH PARTIAL CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND TROF. THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO KEPT CEILINGS
FROM GETTING TO LOW SO GENERALLY MVFR AND ILS APPROACHES THROUGH
15Z OR SO. SOME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
STINGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF LOCAL TERMINALS.
COULD BE A RETURN STRATUS NIGHT AGAIN WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT SYSTEM ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DON`T EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES MUCH ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR MINIMAL EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS MORNING.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
WITH STORMS AS PW VALUES ARE AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH. THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER STREAM LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING IN
LOCATIONS UNDER A PASSING STORM.

SOUTH PLATTE RIVER LEVELS STILL INCREASING ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW RISE IN RIVER LEVELS TODAY WHERE RIVER
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AT WELDONA. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER AT
GREELEY WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220933
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW AND BACK EDGE OF TROF
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH BIT
OF SWIRL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIP HAS SURE TAKEN ITS TIME
GETTING HERE BUT RADAR FINALLY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. APPEARS HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND FURTHER WEST OVER THE WEST SLOPE. GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PRECIP HAS WEAKENED SOME AS IT COMES
OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE CONTINUE WEAK QG ASCENT AS
THE TROF MOVES OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THAN WEAK TO NEUTRAL
DECENT BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND .04"/HOUR. OVERALL QPF FROM
MODELS HAS ALSO DECREASED TODAY WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH ON THE PLAINS...HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
MID MORNING. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM
AS LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS OVER SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTY ARE NOW
GETTING LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT HIGH SO WILL TAPER DOWN A
BIT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLEARING AND
HEATING INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH WOULD HELP THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES
RANGE FROM 700 TO 1000J/KG FROM DENVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO APPEARS SO SORT OF CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER
DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES WHERE BOTH RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS
STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND SHEAR ALOFT COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN IMPACT. WOULD EXPECT LOWER
POPS AND LESS INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ON THE PLAINS
WITH LESS HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PAST
MIDNIGHT ON THE PLAINS GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK ASCENT FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SYNOPTICALLY...A LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC/WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS
CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER CNTRL CALIFORNIA AT THE PRESENT TIME IS
STILL FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE 500 MB LOW OVER SRN UTAH BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FYI...EARLIER GFS RUNS SHOWED THIS TROUGH
OPENING UP AS IT ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD ACRS WYOMING DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. IT NO LONGER INDICATES THAT...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY.

A DRY SLOT AT MID-LEVELS ROUNDING THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STG SOLAR HEATING SAT
MORNING TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE BNDRY LAYER EAST OF THE MTNS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MOIST
SUBTROPICAL AIR CIRCULATING WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PARTNER WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTHWARD BY A STRENGTHENING
S-SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW ON THE PLAINS. THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW A THETA-E RIDGE SURGING UP OVER WELD AND LOGAN
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW A SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN COUNTY ABOUT MIDDAY AND A SHARP
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC LOW TO THE
FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER COUNTY...AND EAST ACRS SRN PHILLIPS COUNTY.
AS MOISTURE ACCUMULATES ALONG THIS AXIS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
IS ANTICIPATED. NAM SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES ANYWHERE FROM 1900-2700
J/KG AND VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SFC LOW BY 21Z. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW NERN COLORADO UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 90-100KT JET. ALL THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF ACTIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ANYWHERE
FROM ERN LARIMER...WELD...MORGAN...NRN WASHINGTON...LOGAN...SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRINCIPLE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK BUT WITH RESPECTABLE HELICITY VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW...CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO. FARTHER SOUTH...SAY IN AND AROUND THE DENVER METRO AREA...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF A GUSTY SLY WIND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THOUGH SCATTERED POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED LATE IN THE DAY. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE HIGH RIDGES AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TOGETHER WITH T-STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT DUE IN PART TO
FAST STORM MOTIONS. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS UP AROUND 11000 FT AT MIDDAY AND LOWERING TO AROUND
10000 FT BY EVENING. SATURDAY TEMPS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST
WE`VE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS WITH MID/UPPER 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S/50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
MOIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
TEMPERATURES COOLER BY A FEW DEGS DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH
LOWER...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED...FURTHER
RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING FAST AND HIGH
SHOULD BE MINOR.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE PRODUCT OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PASSING OVER THE AREA.
STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INFLUENCE THIS DAILY CYCLE OF CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...GFS
INDICATES A SHIFT TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND
SHOWERY PRECIP TO THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WON`T STRAY TOO FAR OFF
FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR INSTANCE...NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
THE GFS IS INDICATING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS BECOMING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND NUMEROUS AS UPPER TROF
APPROACHES TERMINALS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN A BREAK WITH PARTIAL CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND TROF. THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO KEPT CEILINGS
FROM GETTING TO LOW SO GENERALLY MVFR AND ILS APPROACHES THROUGH
15Z OR SO. SOME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
STINGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF LOCAL TERMINALS.
COULD BE A RETURN STRATUS NIGHT AGAIN WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT SYSTEM ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DON`T EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES MUCH ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR MINIMAL EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS MORNING.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
WITH STORMS AS PW VALUES ARE AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH. THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER STREAM LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING IN
LOCATIONS UNDER A PASSING STORM.

SOUTH PLATTE RIVER LEVELS STILL INCREASING ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW RISE IN RIVER LEVELS TODAY WHERE RIVER
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AT WELDONA. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER AT
GREELEY WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 220933
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW AND BACK EDGE OF TROF
LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH BIT
OF SWIRL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIP HAS SURE TAKEN ITS TIME
GETTING HERE BUT RADAR FINALLY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. APPEARS HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND FURTHER WEST OVER THE WEST SLOPE. GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW PRECIP HAS WEAKENED SOME AS IT COMES
OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE CONTINUE WEAK QG ASCENT AS
THE TROF MOVES OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THAN WEAK TO NEUTRAL
DECENT BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND .04"/HOUR. OVERALL QPF FROM
MODELS HAS ALSO DECREASED TODAY WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH ON THE PLAINS...HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
MID MORNING. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED
ON RECENT TRENDS.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM
AS LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS OVER SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTY ARE NOW
GETTING LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT HIGH SO WILL TAPER DOWN A
BIT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CLEARING AND
HEATING INITIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH WOULD HELP THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES
RANGE FROM 700 TO 1000J/KG FROM DENVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO APPEARS SO SORT OF CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER
DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES WHERE BOTH RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS
STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. GIVEN CAPE AND SHEAR ALOFT COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN IMPACT. WOULD EXPECT LOWER
POPS AND LESS INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ON THE PLAINS
WITH LESS HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PAST
MIDNIGHT ON THE PLAINS GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK ASCENT FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SYNOPTICALLY...A LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC/WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS
CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER CNTRL CALIFORNIA AT THE PRESENT TIME IS
STILL FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE 500 MB LOW OVER SRN UTAH BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FYI...EARLIER GFS RUNS SHOWED THIS TROUGH
OPENING UP AS IT ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD ACRS WYOMING DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. IT NO LONGER INDICATES THAT...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY.

A DRY SLOT AT MID-LEVELS ROUNDING THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STG SOLAR HEATING SAT
MORNING TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE BNDRY LAYER EAST OF THE MTNS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MOIST
SUBTROPICAL AIR CIRCULATING WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PARTNER WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED NORTHWARD BY A STRENGTHENING
S-SELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW ON THE PLAINS. THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW A THETA-E RIDGE SURGING UP OVER WELD AND LOGAN
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW A SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN COUNTY ABOUT MIDDAY AND A SHARP
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC LOW TO THE
FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER COUNTY...AND EAST ACRS SRN PHILLIPS COUNTY.
AS MOISTURE ACCUMULATES ALONG THIS AXIS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
IS ANTICIPATED. NAM SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES ANYWHERE FROM 1900-2700
J/KG AND VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SFC LOW BY 21Z. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW NERN COLORADO UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 90-100KT JET. ALL THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF ACTIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ANYWHERE
FROM ERN LARIMER...WELD...MORGAN...NRN WASHINGTON...LOGAN...SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRINCIPLE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK BUT WITH RESPECTABLE HELICITY VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW...CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO. FARTHER SOUTH...SAY IN AND AROUND THE DENVER METRO AREA...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF A GUSTY SLY WIND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THOUGH SCATTERED POPS ARE
STILL WARRANTED LATE IN THE DAY. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE HIGH RIDGES AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TOGETHER WITH T-STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT DUE IN PART TO
FAST STORM MOTIONS. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS UP AROUND 11000 FT AT MIDDAY AND LOWERING TO AROUND
10000 FT BY EVENING. SATURDAY TEMPS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST
WE`VE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS WITH MID/UPPER 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S/50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
MOIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
TEMPERATURES COOLER BY A FEW DEGS DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH
LOWER...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED...FURTHER
RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING FAST AND HIGH
SHOULD BE MINOR.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE PRODUCT OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PASSING OVER THE AREA.
STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INFLUENCE THIS DAILY CYCLE OF CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY...GFS
INDICATES A SHIFT TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND
SHOWERY PRECIP TO THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WON`T STRAY TOO FAR OFF
FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR INSTANCE...NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
THE GFS IS INDICATING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS BECOMING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND NUMEROUS AS UPPER TROF
APPROACHES TERMINALS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN A BREAK WITH PARTIAL CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND TROF. THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO KEPT CEILINGS
FROM GETTING TO LOW SO GENERALLY MVFR AND ILS APPROACHES THROUGH
15Z OR SO. SOME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
STINGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF LOCAL TERMINALS.
COULD BE A RETURN STRATUS NIGHT AGAIN WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT SYSTEM ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DON`T EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES MUCH ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR MINIMAL EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS MORNING.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
WITH STORMS AS PW VALUES ARE AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH. THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER STREAM LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING IN
LOCATIONS UNDER A PASSING STORM.

SOUTH PLATTE RIVER LEVELS STILL INCREASING ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY
AND EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW RISE IN RIVER LEVELS TODAY WHERE RIVER
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AT WELDONA. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT KERSEY AND THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER AT
GREELEY WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 220533
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH HAS HELPED TO LIMIT MIXING AND HAS
KEPT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF TWO BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...THE FIRST BEING THE FAR SE PLAINS AS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE OTHER BEING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEYS AND INTO THE
PEAKS PEAK REGION TONIGHT...AS THE DESERT SW WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALSO MOVING THE SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH QPF
TOTALS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...GENERALLY IN THE A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. THE HIGHER MT PEAKS WILL
LIKELY SEE A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE SNOWFALL...AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS AND ADDED THE PEAKS PEAK
MASSIF...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING
SHOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THE MAIN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE CONTDVD. INCREASING SW ALOFT ALOFT LEADS TO
A LHX LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH POSSIBLE
DRYLINE AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW...WITH 50S AND
60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UNSETTLED...BUT NOT QUITE AS WET...

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST
SUN-SUN NIGHT AND A SECOND ON TUE. THESE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
SYSTEMS BUT GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND SATURATED
SOILS...COULD ADD TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE AREA.

FIRST LOW APPROACHES THE 4 CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED BY
THIS SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP/QPF WILL FALL
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH ONLY SCT SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. SHOULD HOPEFULLY SEE 70S FOR THE PLAINS AS A HIGH TEMP.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SVR WX...BUT MOST RECENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE STRONGEST SVR THREAT ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH
WILL BE NR THE CO-KS BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA TO WATCH
WILL BE MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 287 IN ERN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE N OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE
PLAINS...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL BE OVER NERN CO.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO AND WE COULD
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND AREAS N OF HGWY 50 WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NRN ZONES.

AFTER A BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON MONDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AND THEN ON THROUGH THE ERN CO PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO THE
AREA AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE
MTS AND MORE NRN ZONES IN OUR CWA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NE...WE WILL SEE INCREASING SWRLY
FLOW DEVELOP MID-WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP A BIT...COULD EVEN SEE TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES AT KPUB FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING
OF THE MONTH. IN FACT...MEX GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 87 FOR KPUB
NEXT THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL PATTERN AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...WILL STICK WITH ENSEMBLE TEMPS WHICH ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MOS NUMBERS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND THE DESERT SW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE COUPLED WITH LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW.
LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR KCOS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
18Z. CONDITIONS AT KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO BE MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z...W-SW FLOW IS FORECAST TO HELP DRY OUT THE
I-25 CORRIDOR TEMPORARILY...WITH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. STORM
CHANCES RETURN IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE HEATING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 220533
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH HAS HELPED TO LIMIT MIXING AND HAS
KEPT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF TWO BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...THE FIRST BEING THE FAR SE PLAINS AS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE OTHER BEING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEYS AND INTO THE
PEAKS PEAK REGION TONIGHT...AS THE DESERT SW WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALSO MOVING THE SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH QPF
TOTALS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...GENERALLY IN THE A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. THE HIGHER MT PEAKS WILL
LIKELY SEE A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE SNOWFALL...AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS AND ADDED THE PEAKS PEAK
MASSIF...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING
SHOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THE MAIN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE CONTDVD. INCREASING SW ALOFT ALOFT LEADS TO
A LHX LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH POSSIBLE
DRYLINE AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW...WITH 50S AND
60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UNSETTLED...BUT NOT QUITE AS WET...

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST
SUN-SUN NIGHT AND A SECOND ON TUE. THESE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
SYSTEMS BUT GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND SATURATED
SOILS...COULD ADD TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE AREA.

FIRST LOW APPROACHES THE 4 CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED BY
THIS SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP/QPF WILL FALL
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH ONLY SCT SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. SHOULD HOPEFULLY SEE 70S FOR THE PLAINS AS A HIGH TEMP.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SVR WX...BUT MOST RECENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE STRONGEST SVR THREAT ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH
WILL BE NR THE CO-KS BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA TO WATCH
WILL BE MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 287 IN ERN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE N OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE
PLAINS...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL BE OVER NERN CO.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO AND WE COULD
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND AREAS N OF HGWY 50 WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NRN ZONES.

AFTER A BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON MONDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AND THEN ON THROUGH THE ERN CO PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO THE
AREA AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE
MTS AND MORE NRN ZONES IN OUR CWA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NE...WE WILL SEE INCREASING SWRLY
FLOW DEVELOP MID-WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP A BIT...COULD EVEN SEE TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES AT KPUB FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING
OF THE MONTH. IN FACT...MEX GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 87 FOR KPUB
NEXT THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL PATTERN AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...WILL STICK WITH ENSEMBLE TEMPS WHICH ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MOS NUMBERS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND THE DESERT SW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE COUPLED WITH LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW.
LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR KCOS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
18Z. CONDITIONS AT KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO BE MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z...W-SW FLOW IS FORECAST TO HELP DRY OUT THE
I-25 CORRIDOR TEMPORARILY...WITH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. STORM
CHANCES RETURN IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE HEATING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 220533
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH HAS HELPED TO LIMIT MIXING AND HAS
KEPT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF TWO BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...THE FIRST BEING THE FAR SE PLAINS AS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE OTHER BEING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEYS AND INTO THE
PEAKS PEAK REGION TONIGHT...AS THE DESERT SW WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALSO MOVING THE SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH QPF
TOTALS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...GENERALLY IN THE A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. THE HIGHER MT PEAKS WILL
LIKELY SEE A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE SNOWFALL...AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS AND ADDED THE PEAKS PEAK
MASSIF...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING
SHOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THE MAIN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE CONTDVD. INCREASING SW ALOFT ALOFT LEADS TO
A LHX LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH POSSIBLE
DRYLINE AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW...WITH 50S AND
60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UNSETTLED...BUT NOT QUITE AS WET...

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST
SUN-SUN NIGHT AND A SECOND ON TUE. THESE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
SYSTEMS BUT GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND SATURATED
SOILS...COULD ADD TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE AREA.

FIRST LOW APPROACHES THE 4 CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED BY
THIS SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP/QPF WILL FALL
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH ONLY SCT SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. SHOULD HOPEFULLY SEE 70S FOR THE PLAINS AS A HIGH TEMP.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SVR WX...BUT MOST RECENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE STRONGEST SVR THREAT ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH
WILL BE NR THE CO-KS BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA TO WATCH
WILL BE MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 287 IN ERN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE N OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE
PLAINS...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL BE OVER NERN CO.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO AND WE COULD
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND AREAS N OF HGWY 50 WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NRN ZONES.

AFTER A BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON MONDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AND THEN ON THROUGH THE ERN CO PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO THE
AREA AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE
MTS AND MORE NRN ZONES IN OUR CWA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NE...WE WILL SEE INCREASING SWRLY
FLOW DEVELOP MID-WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP A BIT...COULD EVEN SEE TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES AT KPUB FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING
OF THE MONTH. IN FACT...MEX GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 87 FOR KPUB
NEXT THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL PATTERN AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...WILL STICK WITH ENSEMBLE TEMPS WHICH ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MOS NUMBERS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND THE DESERT SW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE COUPLED WITH LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW.
LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR KCOS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
18Z. CONDITIONS AT KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO BE MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z...W-SW FLOW IS FORECAST TO HELP DRY OUT THE
I-25 CORRIDOR TEMPORARILY...WITH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. STORM
CHANCES RETURN IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE HEATING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 220533
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH HAS HELPED TO LIMIT MIXING AND HAS
KEPT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF TWO BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...THE FIRST BEING THE FAR SE PLAINS AS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE OTHER BEING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEYS AND INTO THE
PEAKS PEAK REGION TONIGHT...AS THE DESERT SW WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALSO MOVING THE SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH QPF
TOTALS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...GENERALLY IN THE A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. THE HIGHER MT PEAKS WILL
LIKELY SEE A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE SNOWFALL...AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS AND ADDED THE PEAKS PEAK
MASSIF...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING
SHOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THE MAIN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE CONTDVD. INCREASING SW ALOFT ALOFT LEADS TO
A LHX LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH POSSIBLE
DRYLINE AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW...WITH 50S AND
60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UNSETTLED...BUT NOT QUITE AS WET...

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST
SUN-SUN NIGHT AND A SECOND ON TUE. THESE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
SYSTEMS BUT GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND SATURATED
SOILS...COULD ADD TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE AREA.

FIRST LOW APPROACHES THE 4 CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED BY
THIS SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP/QPF WILL FALL
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH ONLY SCT SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. SHOULD HOPEFULLY SEE 70S FOR THE PLAINS AS A HIGH TEMP.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SVR WX...BUT MOST RECENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE STRONGEST SVR THREAT ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH
WILL BE NR THE CO-KS BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA TO WATCH
WILL BE MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 287 IN ERN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE N OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE
PLAINS...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL BE OVER NERN CO.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO AND WE COULD
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND AREAS N OF HGWY 50 WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NRN ZONES.

AFTER A BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON MONDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AND THEN ON THROUGH THE ERN CO PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO THE
AREA AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE
MTS AND MORE NRN ZONES IN OUR CWA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NE...WE WILL SEE INCREASING SWRLY
FLOW DEVELOP MID-WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP A BIT...COULD EVEN SEE TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES AT KPUB FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING
OF THE MONTH. IN FACT...MEX GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 87 FOR KPUB
NEXT THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL PATTERN AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...WILL STICK WITH ENSEMBLE TEMPS WHICH ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MOS NUMBERS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND THE DESERT SW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE COUPLED WITH LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW.
LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR KCOS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
18Z. CONDITIONS AT KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO BE MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z...W-SW FLOW IS FORECAST TO HELP DRY OUT THE
I-25 CORRIDOR TEMPORARILY...WITH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. STORM
CHANCES RETURN IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE HEATING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MOORE




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