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000
FXUS65 KBOU 162150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN...THOUGH BEST ASCENT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SOME SHOWERS ONGOING SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTHWARD. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY. TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THE MAIN BATCH OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
ASCENT OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF
THE CFWA. BUT LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP WITH LOCAL
UPSLOPE ACROSS SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LATEST RAP SHOWS
LIGHT QPF IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT. SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SPREADS INTO AREA. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARDS MORNING.
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND WILL SPREAD
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND GFS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. AIRMASS LOOKS
FAIRLY SUBSIDENT...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK...SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WARM UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPERATURES NA
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE MAIN MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
BOTH DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE STATE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAS
A FAIR CHANCE OF EXTENDING WELL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WILL THEN BE WARMER AND DRIER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 10Z...BETTER CHANCE AT KAPA...WITH
PERHAPS CEILINGS AS LOW AS 5000 FEET AGL AT KAPA AND KBJC. VCSH
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WINDS TO BE BECOME SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY...MAY BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 162150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN...THOUGH BEST ASCENT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SOME SHOWERS ONGOING SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTHWARD. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY. TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THE MAIN BATCH OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
ASCENT OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF
THE CFWA. BUT LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP WITH LOCAL
UPSLOPE ACROSS SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LATEST RAP SHOWS
LIGHT QPF IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT. SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SPREADS INTO AREA. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARDS MORNING.
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND WILL SPREAD
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND GFS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. AIRMASS LOOKS
FAIRLY SUBSIDENT...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK...SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WARM UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPERATURES NA
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE MAIN MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
BOTH DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE STATE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAS
A FAIR CHANCE OF EXTENDING WELL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WILL THEN BE WARMER AND DRIER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 10Z...BETTER CHANCE AT KAPA...WITH
PERHAPS CEILINGS AS LOW AS 5000 FEET AGL AT KAPA AND KBJC. VCSH
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WINDS TO BE BECOME SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY...MAY BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L



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000
FXUS65 KGJT 162132
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
332 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE WEAK FRONTAL BAND HAS SAGGED INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND WEATHER CAMS INDICATE HIGH MTN
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SAN JUANS WESTWARD INTO THE ABAJO
MTNS WITH SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 9K-10KFT THERE. SNOTEL SITES HAVE
SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST PRECIP OCCURRING NEAR THE
850-700MB CONVERGENCE CENTER. THIS CENTER IS EAST OF THE SAN JUAN
MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH SLIDES ONTO THE PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK IN FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE EVENING. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME
SEASONABLY STRONG TONIGHT. THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
GRAND...UNCOMPAHGRE...AND GUNNISON RIVER BASINS WILL LIKELY DIP
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. BUT AFTER TWO FREEZE WARNINGS AND THE
DAMAGE DONE EARLIER THIS WEEK...WILL NOT ISSUE A THIRD FOR SPOTTY
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE COLORADO MTNS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ANY SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT...FLOW VEERS TO SW WHICH
BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS. THE SUBTROPICAL LOW MAKES LANDFALL IN SW
CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR
TSTORMS INCREASES AS A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT ADDS IN WITH THE
DYNAMICS. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 0.50 INCH SATURDAY WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BUT FOR THE
MOST PART WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN AND HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS MOST LOCATIONS STAY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET RETURNS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BECOMING CRITICAL FIRE WX DAYS.

LATEST 12Z MODELS DIVERGE ON THE LONG TERM SOLUTION MIDWEEK AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. EC KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
REGION AS WELL AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY OVER NORTHERN
UT AND CO. THE GFS IS STILL BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH UTAH AND
COLORADO AT A NICE CLIP BRINGING DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WITH IT. LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO BUT WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE GFS AS THIS PERSISTS WITH THE RECENT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS UNTIL 06Z...SCT -SHSN/-SHRA WILL OCNLY
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND OBSCD MTN TOPS. TAF SITES NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AFFECTED BY PRECIP. AFTER 06Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INCLUDING THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTNS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE



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000
FXUS65 KPUB 162125
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

RAPIDLY EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM NOW IS MOVING INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY AM SEEING SOME BANDED PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF
SHRA...DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY. DEWPOINTS STILL PRETTY LOW OVER
THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP COOL THINGS OFF THIS EVE AS WET BULB
IS REACHED IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING ITS PEAK FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.

A COUPLE OF RECENT TRENDS ARE MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN IT
HAD BEEN A COUPLE DAYS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO MINUS
5 OR 6 AS OPPOSED TO THE MINUS 10 OR LOWER FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
THIS IS POINTING AT THE SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT. BUT DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND
TIMING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW FALLING AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 6K
FEET...EXCEPT MAYBE ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE A PARTICULAR CHALLENGE SINCE
ELEVATIONS FROM WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6000-
6500 FOOT RANGE. SO...EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THIS EVE COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WET PAVEMENT
AND A FEW INCHES OF SLUSH. HAVE GENERALLY PLAYED THE MIDDLE ROAD OF
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE THAT ELEVATION
FOR THE EARLY EVE. BUT...HIGHER TRRN TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO
SPANISH PEAKS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW...MORE THAN SIX INCHES
FOR SOME AREAS.

OTHER ISSUE IS THE RECENT TREND TOWARDS THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS FALLING
OVER THE SRN ZONES...THE WETS AND SRN SANGRES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF...FOR EXAMPLE...KEEP
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP SOUTH OF THE PIKES PK REGION. THE NAM
AND RUC..LOWER RES...KEEP HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS SO FAR...AM
INCLINED TO KEEP WITH AT LEAST MODERATE ACCUMS FOR PIKES
PEAK...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT SRN AND ERN SIDES WILL GET
A BIT MORE THIS EVE. MODELS ARE HITTING THE SRN SANGRES AND HIGHER
WETS PRETTY HARD THROUGH 06-08Z TONIGHT. HAVE CONSIDERED UPGRADING
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT SINCE THE LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER
GIVEN THE WARMER LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS TO BE PRETTY HIGH UP AND SPOTTY. SO...ADVISORIES
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM TRENDS
PRETTY CAREFULLY.

WILL SEE THE SYSTEM CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY FROM N TO S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. BALANCE OF
THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY NICE...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S
OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.  CLOSED LOW MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC...ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS AN OPEN
TROF. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH COOLING ALOFT...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND
A COLD FRONT...THOUGH IT IS NOT ALL THAT COOL BEHIND IT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  NAM12 IS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT SAT AFTERNOON SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND
50 NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 00Z.  GFS IS A TAD SLOWER...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DROPPING THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ECMWF
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THOUGH A JUST A TAD MOISTER.  EITHER
WAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AGAIN...PROBABLY AROUND
9.5-10KFT...SO BELOW THIS ELEVATION WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BURN
SCARS CLOSELY FOR RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE WALDO.  FOR NOW
THOUGH...THINK THAT GFS PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE...AND ANY
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AS MODEL CAPE
VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS HIGHER CAPE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST.

THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS EASTERN CO ON SUNDAY...SO AFTER
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOOK A LITTLE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH DROPS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...THEN EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WED. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS OF FUELS...MAY NEED SOME FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS DAY.  OTHERWISE...DRY LINE WILL BE LURKING NEAR
THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TRENDS IN THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECWMF...SEEM TO SUGGEST A
MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND LESS OF A PERSISTENT MERIDIONAL FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO THESE LATEST RUNS KEEP THE DRYLINE JUST TO OUR
EAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR WED AS GFS SHOWS MORE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
EC DOES NOT HAVE...SO JURY IS STILL OUT. EITHER WAY...SHOULD BE AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THIS EVE. KCOS WILL BE ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF
PRECIP...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL GO DOWN TO IFR CIGS
AND/OR VIS FOR THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. KPUB WILL FOLLOW SUIT...ABOUT
AN HOUR OR SO LATER AS PRECIP SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND 5500-6000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
KALS COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP TONIGHT...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT
WILL BE ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES...WETS...AND PIKES PEAK. CLEARING
CONDITIONS THU MORNING COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF FG OR BR FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE PRECIP EARLY ON. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 161810
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1210 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE AREA WAS PASSING
ACROSS WY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NE UT/NW
CO. THE STEAMBOAT RESORT POWDER CAM SHOWED SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
TIMES ON THE MTN...AND KGJX RADAR INDICATED SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLATTOPS. KCCU OBS ALSO REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW
NEAR COPPER MTN. OTHERWISE...MAINLY JUST A MID-LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE RAP13 MODEL SHOWS THE FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH AND LOSING DEFINITION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING ACROSS WA/OR AND DRIVEN BY A
PACIFIC JET. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD RE-INVIGORATE MTN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATE TODAY AND
INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFTED INDEX SHOWS
MEAGER INSTABILITY...BUT NEGATIVE EPV IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER MAY
INDICATE SOME TENDENCY FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DID TRIM
AFTERNOON POPS BACK A TAD GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. SNOW ACCUMS WILL
BE RATHER MINIMAL.

CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE GRAND VALLEY...NORTH FORK...AND UNCOMPAHGRE
RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT BUT LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THU AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SOME MINIMAL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHETHER A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
OR A CLOSED LOW BUT RESULTANT WEATHER REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AS
THE LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES...SOME...NOT MUCH...MOISTURE WILL GET
ENTRAINED INTO THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS INDICATED BY INCREASING CAPE VALUES AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES SO SOME RAIN/STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT BELOW ANY WARNING CRITERIA.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA CAUSING PLENTY OF LIFT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. AGAIN...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH NEAR 10K FEET OR SO.  CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT ANY LEVEL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME DUE TO CLOUDS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY. PRECIP STARTS TO LIGHTEN TOWARDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS MAY FIRE OFF MORE SHOWERS
SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS REALLY START TO INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

CIGS WILL STAY WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE SCT AFTERNOON -SHSN/-SHRA
WILL OCNLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND OBSCD MTN TOPS. TAF SITES NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY PRECIP. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INCLUDING THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MTNS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161757
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1157 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TONIGHT TO
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...SPANISH PEAKS AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
HAVE EXPANDED OUR WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE WRN LAS
ANIMAS AND HUERFANO COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMS IN THESE ZONES WILL
BE VERY VARIABLE AND ELEVATION DEPENDENT...WITH HIGH SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LIKELY BELOW
6500 FEET. OF COURSE...A SMALL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS COULD MAKE
A BIG DIFFERENCE IN EXACT ACCUMS FOR THIS AREA. BELIEVE A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA OF THE ZONES WILL BE INVOLVED TO JUSTIFY
AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
TEMPS MAY END UP A BIT HIGHER TODAY THANKS TO THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH TO FALL BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z TONIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE S
MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

COLD FRONT/TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER NE CO AT 3AM...WITH A LEE TROUGH
NOTED OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. 3H PRESSURE PRESSURE CHART WAS SHOWING
4 4 MB RISE OVER WYOMING. REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE CO/WY BORDER...WITH VIRGA LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
MTNS OVER W CO.

TODAY...

COOL FRONT OVER THE CO/WY BORDER REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSCEND
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GO AROUND TO NW-N-
NE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. BETTER LLVL MOISTURE OVER NE CO WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE C MTN AREAS LATER TODAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BY LATER AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PLAINS/S MTNS...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY INCREASING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S PLAINS
AND VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO SHOW THAT PRECIP IS GOING TO
BE MORE LOCALIZED...AND TIED MAINLY TOWARDS THE TERRAIN OF THE S
MTNS....ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND THE S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND
ADJACENT RATON MESA REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ITS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT ~6 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE
HEAVIEST OCCURRING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. I HAVE CHANGED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND S MTN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL GET 4-8"...BUT SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE WET
MTNS AND S SANGRES MAY SEE LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE. A BAND OF PRECIP
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK OUT OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING S OF US-50. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS (AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE
~6000 FT)...BUT ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 2" ON GRASSY
AREAS.

NOTE THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE C MTN
AREA NOR THE SW MTNS TONITE. STD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS EVENING. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ON TAP DURING THE MAJORITY
OF THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY ISSUES BEING POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. ALSO...FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT LONG-TERM METEOROLOGICAL WINDOW.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT GENERALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(IN THE FORM OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD THEN
RETURN TO PRIMARILY WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER(I.E. PRIMARILY IN KANSAS) ON SATURDAY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRY-LINE NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AS WELL AS INCREASING WINDS FROM MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE AT 00Z TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE MID TO LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014.

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVE. EXPECT SCT SHRASN TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AT THE TAF
SITES...AND WILL BECOME STEADY AT KCOS AFTER 00Z...AND KPUB AFTER
01Z. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS IN THE 01-06Z TIME FRAME.
DEPENDING ON PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...SOME PC FG OR BR CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE 15Z THU MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5500-6000 FEET...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AT KPUB LATE TONIGHT. ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 161658
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS BRIEFLY WENT NORTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE...BUT NOW TRENDING MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS A BIT
GUSTY ALONG FOOTHILLS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL AS ALONG
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WEB CAMS STILL INDICATING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES. MAY ALSO BE SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
AIRMASS COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
SPREADS INTO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WILL ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WHEN MID LEVEL ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE. LATEST
MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH
FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER.
SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...PARK COUNTY AND
PALMER DIVIDE WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. WILL
KEEP THE LOW POPS FOR THE DENVER AREA NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE EVENING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SEEM REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH DENVER AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE QG
DESCENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS WILL DECREASE BY 15Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE NERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...THE QPF GENERATED BY MUCH OF THE MDLS IS
FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED THE POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. BEST CHC OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN ZONES
36...37 AND 41. DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE EAST OF
COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL BE QUICKER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS. PLAN ON KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE. THIS WILL PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE
STATE. COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH WARM AIR IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

FRONT HAS PASSED AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
NORTHERLY WINDS. LATEST RAP AND HRRR INDICATING WINDS TO REMAIN A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH 21Z BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY. WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
TAFS SEEM REASONABLE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 21Z...MAINLY AT KAPA AND
KBJC. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH. CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000
FEET AGL FOR A SHORT TIME...MAINLY AT KAPA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 161658
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS BRIEFLY WENT NORTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE...BUT NOW TRENDING MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS A BIT
GUSTY ALONG FOOTHILLS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL AS ALONG
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WEB CAMS STILL INDICATING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES. MAY ALSO BE SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
AIRMASS COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
SPREADS INTO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WILL ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WHEN MID LEVEL ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE. LATEST
MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH
FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER.
SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...PARK COUNTY AND
PALMER DIVIDE WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. WILL
KEEP THE LOW POPS FOR THE DENVER AREA NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE EVENING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SEEM REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH DENVER AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE QG
DESCENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS WILL DECREASE BY 15Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE NERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...THE QPF GENERATED BY MUCH OF THE MDLS IS
FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED THE POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. BEST CHC OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN ZONES
36...37 AND 41. DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE EAST OF
COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL BE QUICKER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS. PLAN ON KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE. THIS WILL PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE
STATE. COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH WARM AIR IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

FRONT HAS PASSED AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
NORTHERLY WINDS. LATEST RAP AND HRRR INDICATING WINDS TO REMAIN A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH 21Z BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY. WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
TAFS SEEM REASONABLE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 21Z...MAINLY AT KAPA AND
KBJC. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH. CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000
FEET AGL FOR A SHORT TIME...MAINLY AT KAPA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...D-L




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
945 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TONIGHT TO
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...SPANISH PEAKS AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
HAVE EXPANDED OUR WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE WRN LAS
ANIMAS AND HUERFANO COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMS IN THESE ZONES WILL
BE VERY VARIABLE AND ELEVATION DEPENDENT...WITH HIGH SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LIKELY BELOW
6500 FEET. OF COURSE...A SMALL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS COULD MAKE
A BIG DIFFERENCE IN EXACT ACCUMS FOR THIS AREA. BELIEVE A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA OF THE ZONES WILL BE INVOLVED TO JUSTIFY
AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
TEMPS MAY END UP A BIT HIGHER TODAY THANKS TO THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH TO FALL BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z TONIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE S
MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

COLD FRONT/TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER NE CO AT 3AM...WITH A LEE TROUGH
NOTED OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. 3H PRESSURE PRESSURE CHART WAS SHOWING
4 4 MB RISE OVER WYOMING. REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE CO/WY BORDER...WITH VIRGA LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
MTNS OVER W CO.

TODAY...

COOL FRONT OVER THE CO/WY BORDER REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSCEND
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GO AROUND TO NW-N-
NE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. BETTER LLVL MOISTURE OVER NE CO WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE C MTN AREAS LATER TODAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BY LATER AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PLAINS/S MTNS...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY INCREASING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S PLAINS
AND VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO SHOW THAT PRECIP IS GOING TO
BE MORE LOCALIZED...AND TIED MAINLY TOWARDS THE TERRAIN OF THE S
MTNS....ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND THE S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND
ADJACENT RATON MESA REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ITS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT ~6 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE
HEAVIEST OCCURRING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. I HAVE CHANGED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND S MTN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL GET 4-8"...BUT SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE WET
MTNS AND S SANGRES MAY SEE LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE. A BAND OF PRECIP
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK OUT OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING S OF US-50. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS (AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE
~6000 FT)...BUT ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 2" ON GRASSY
AREAS.

NOTE THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE C MTN
AREA NOR THE SW MTNS TONITE. STD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS EVENING. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ON TAP DURING THE MAJORITY
OF THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY ISSUES BEING POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. ALSO...FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT LONG-TERM METEOROLOGICAL WINDOW.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT GENERALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(IN THE FORM OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD THEN
RETURN TO PRIMARILY WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER(I.E. PRIMARILY IN KANSAS) ON SATURDAY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRY-LINE NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AS WELL AS INCREASING WINDS FROM MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE AT 00Z TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE MID TO LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THU AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NW-N-NE AND...THEN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z WE WILL SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP OVER KCOS AND KPUB...WITH RAIN/SNOW AT KCOS AND MAINLY RAIN
AT KPUB. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...WITH SOME IFR AT KCOS IN THE
WET SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KALS THIS EVENING WITH PDS
OF MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 161115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE S
MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

COLD FRONT/TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER NE CO AT 3AM...WITH A LEE TROUGH
NOTED OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. 3H PRESSURE PRESSURE CHART WAS SHOWING
4 4 MB RISE OVER WYOMING. REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE CO/WY BORDER...WITH VIRGA LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
MTNS OVER W CO.

TODAY...

COOL FRONT OVER THE CO/WY BORDER REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSCEND
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GO AROUND TO NW-N-
NE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. BETTER LLVL MOISTURE OVER NE CO WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE C MTN AREAS LATER TODAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BY LATER AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PLAINS/S MTNS...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY INCREASING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S PLAINS
AND VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO SHOW THAT PRECIP IS GOING TO
BE MORE LOCALIZED...AND TIED MAINLY TOWARDS THE TERRAIN OF THE S
MTNS....ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND THE S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND
ADJACENT RATON MESA REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ITS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT ~6 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE
HEAVIEST OCCURRING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. I HAVE CHANGED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND S MTN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL GET 4-8"...BUT SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE WET
MTNS AND S SANGRES MAY SEE LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE. A BAND OF PRECIP
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK OUT OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING S OF US-50. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS (AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE
~6000 FT)...BUT ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 2" ON GRASSY
AREAS.

NOTE THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE C MTN
AREA NOR THE SW MTNS TONITE. STD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS EVENING. /HODANISH


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ON TAP DURING THE MAJORITY
OF THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY ISSUES BEING POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. ALSO...FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT LONG-TERM METEOROLOGICAL WINDOW.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT GENERALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(IN THE FORM OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD THEN
RETURN TO PRIMARILY WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER(I.E. PRIMARILY IN KANSAS) ON SATURDAY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRY-LINE NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AS WELL AS INCREASING WINDS FROM MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE AT 00Z TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE MID TO LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THU AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NW-N-NE AND...THEN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z WE WILL SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP OVER KCOS AND KPUB...WITH RAIN/SNOW AT KCOS AND MAINLY RAIN
AT KPUB. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...WITH SOME IFR AT KCOS IN THE
WET SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KALS THIS EVENING WITH PDS
OF MVFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGJT 160937
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
337 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE AREA WAS PASSING
ACROSS WY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NE UT/NW
CO. THE STEAMBOAT RESORT POWDER CAM SHOWED SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
TIMES ON THE MTN...AND KGJX RADAR INDICATED SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLATTOPS. KCCU OBS ALSO REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW
NEAR COPPER MTN. OTHERWISE...MAINLY JUST A MID-LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE RAP13 MODEL SHOWS THE FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH AND LOSING DEFINITION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING ACROSS WA/OR AND DRIVEN BY A
PACIFIC JET. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD RE-INVIGORATE MTN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATE TODAY AND
INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFTED INDEX SHOWS
MEAGER INSTABILITY...BUT NEGATIVE EPV IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER MAY
INDICATE SOME TENDENCY FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DID TRIM
AFTERNOON POPS BACK A TAD GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. SNOW ACCUMS WILL
BE RATHER MINIMAL.

CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE GRAND VALLEY...NORTH FORK...AND UNCOMPAHGRE
RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT BUT LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THU AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SOME MINIMAL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHETHER A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
OR A CLOSED LOW BUT RESULTANT WEATHER REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AS
THE LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES...SOME...NOT MUCH...MOISTURE WILL GET
ENTRAINED INTO THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS INDICATED BY INCREASING CAPE VALUES AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES SO SOME RAIN/STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT BELOW ANY WARNING CRITERIA.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA CAUSING PLENTY OF LIFT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. AGAIN...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH NEAR 10K FEET OR SO.  CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT ANY LEVEL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME DUE TO CLOUDS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY. PRECIP STARTS TO LIGHTEN TOWARDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS MAY FIRE OFF MORE SHOWERS
SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS REALLY START TO INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON TAP TODAY BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH SOME
OCCNL MVFR VIS POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS DUE TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED BY PRECIP TODAY THOUGH.
NRN AIRPORTS...THINK KSBS...MAYBE KHDN...WILL MOST LIKELY BE
AFFECTED BY ANY WX. MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH 00Z WITH CLOUDS
LIFTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALSO AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KBOU 160933
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH DENVER AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE QG
DESCENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS WILL DECREASE BY 15Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE NERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...THE QPF GENERATED BY MUCH OF THE MDLS IS
FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED THE POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. BEST CHC OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN ZONES
36...37 AND 41. DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE EAST OF
COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL BE QUICKER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS. PLAN ON KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE. THIS WILL PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE
STATE. COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH WARM AIR IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NXT SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE
DENVER AREA THIS MORNING. N-NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z
THEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NELY. SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
GENERATE MUCH PCPN OVER THE DENVER AREA BUT WEAK UPSLOPE IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER KBJC AND
KAPA...WL KEEP VCSH AT KDEN THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD SEE BKN
CIGS 040-060 AGL AFTER 21-22Z. AS WINDS BECOME SELY THIS
EVENING...MAY SEE CIGS START TO IMPROVE IN THE DENVER AREA AS THE
FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH,.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 160933
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH DENVER AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE QG
DESCENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS WILL DECREASE BY 15Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE NERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...THE QPF GENERATED BY MUCH OF THE MDLS IS
FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED THE POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. BEST CHC OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN ZONES
36...37 AND 41. DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE EAST OF
COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL BE QUICKER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS. PLAN ON KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE. THIS WILL PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE
STATE. COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH WARM AIR IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NXT SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE
DENVER AREA THIS MORNING. N-NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z
THEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NELY. SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
GENERATE MUCH PCPN OVER THE DENVER AREA BUT WEAK UPSLOPE IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER KBJC AND
KAPA...WL KEEP VCSH AT KDEN THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD SEE BKN
CIGS 040-060 AGL AFTER 21-22Z. AS WINDS BECOME SELY THIS
EVENING...MAY SEE CIGS START TO IMPROVE IN THE DENVER AREA AS THE
FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH,.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 160540
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED TO CHANGE SOME SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE ERN MTS AND SOME OF
THE SERN PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AS EXPECTED...PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. CLOUDS HAVE
NOT HAMPERED TEMPS...WHICH ARE PRESENTLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SAVE FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS...BUT WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS AT HT CLIMBING ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
LAST NIGHT...INCREASED WRLY FLOW...AND INCREASED CLOUDS. SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING MOST SPOTS E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE A FEW SHSN MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH ID...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE SE...REACHING OUR AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...WITH MODELS REMAINING
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. WILL SEE PRECIP SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL TO
ERN MTS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE ERN RANGES N OF KVTP...AND ALONG THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NR 6000 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME WET FLAKES POSSIBLE VC KCOS FOR THE LATE
COMMUTE. TEMPS LIKELY WILL HIGH THEIR MAX EARLY IN THE DAY...NOON
OR SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WITH THE LAST
SYSTEM BUT LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
OVER OUR AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM...REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A BULLS EYE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE 600MB SURFACE OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C...WHICH STARTS TO
BE IN THE REGION FOR FAVORABLE SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL RATE. WITH VERY
WARM GROUND...LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING.
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. CURRENTLY...LOOKS LIKE ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL HAVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...SOME ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTHERN
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PASSING OVER THE PLAINS. COLD AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A MODEST WARM UP
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMED MAXIMUMS ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT
TO VALUES IN THE GUIDANCE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST US.
SOME MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM EAST OF HAWAII INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
THIS SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MILD AND HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO COLORADO.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE SOME POPS IN THE GRIDS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR MORE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLER DAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT THAN EC WITH STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE EC IS FURTHER NORTH.
CURRENTLY FORECAST IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WHICH IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SERN PLAINS
BEGINNING AROUND 10Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SRN BORDER
AROUND MIDMORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WHICH WL THEN SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST OR NE ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL SITES...AND WL THEN BE
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KGJT 160435
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1035 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH MINIMAL ASCENT MOST OF THIS WILL SKIP US AND MOVE OFF TO THE
PLAINS. THIS BIGGEST ROLE THIS MOISTURE IS HAVING IS TO BUST MY
AFTERNOON HIGH FORECAST...LIMITING MIXING JUST ENOUGH THAT THE
COOLER PBL IS WINNING OUT AND TEMPS STRUGGLING. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM LIES UPSTREAM. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING A
DIGGING WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A JET DRIVEN SYSTEM ON IT/S HEELS IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

THIS FIRST SYSTEM TAKES THE STRONGEST LIFT TO OUR NORTH BUT DROPS A
TRAILING FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...SETTLING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE. AN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM
SOUTHEAST UTAH TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. ASCENT
FROM THE PASSING WAVE...FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT SNOW TO BE FOCUSED
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO OUTRUN THE
COLDER AIR SO EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ABOVE
7500 FEET. THE FRONT WILL BE LOOSING DEFINITION AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER
SOUTH AND LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS. DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE A DOWNTURN ON PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP LOWS A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COLORADO AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND
JET CORE ARRIVE IN UNISON. THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PUSH
SNOW LEVEL BACK UP AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH LOOKS TO
LIFT BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT THETA-E PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IF ANY IS RELEASED IT
WILL SLANTWISE RATHER THAN UPRIGHT. PWATS MAX OUT AT AROUND 0.40
INCHES AS THE LIFT ARRIVES...JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHALLENGE IS
TIMING OF MAX LIFT/PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN ACCUMS
BELOW 9000 FEET LOOK DIFFICULT. MODEL TRENDS STILL PLACE THE HIGHEST
QPF OVER THE ELKS/NORTHERN SAWATCH AND THE HIGHEST POINTS ON THE
NORTHEAST SAN JUAN RANGE. SOME SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 10000 FEET MAY BE
OVER THE 5 INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS CAUSING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL OR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS ARE TOO LOW TO PLACE IN HEADLINES ATTM. SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL
FALL IN MANY AREAS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE
REFOCUSING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A QUICK
DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS...OVERNIGHT AND LOWS ATTM LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FRUIT BEARING VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL BRING TWO STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT
7-8 DAYS WITH SHORT LIVED RIDGES IN BETWEEN. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION WITH DETAILS AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH
IT SEEMS SO FAR THIS SPRING THE FASTER GFS HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM USHERS IN A RELATIVELY MILD BUT MOIST OPEN
TROUGH FROM THE SW. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY AND BECOME
LIKELY ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH
AROUND 9KFT BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10-11KFT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BUT THERE
IS ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...MAINLY OVER THE
COLORADO MTNS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PRODUCE
COOLER AFTERNOONS.

THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE NEXT TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THREATENING WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW CO/NE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-70
CORRIDOR ABOUT 09Z-10Z...THEN LOSES DEFINITION AS IT CONTINUES TO
SLIP SOUTH. SCT TO NMRS -SHSN WITH OCNL MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS WITH THE FRONT...BUT
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPIATION WILL REACH THE VALLEYS. CIGS WILL BE
LOWERING BUT TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH WED MORNING. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED
AFTERNOON FOR A RESURGENCE OF SCT TO NMRS -SHSNRA MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLD -SHRA FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO
VALLEYS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KPUB 160401
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED TO CHANGE SOME SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE ERN MTS AND SOME OF
THE SERN PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AS EXPECTED...PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. CLOUDS HAVE
NOT HAMPERED TEMPS...WHICH ARE PRESENTLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SAVE FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS...BUT WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS AT HT CLIMBING ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
LAST NIGHT...INCREASED WRLY FLOW...AND INCREASED CLOUDS. SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING MOST SPOTS E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE A FEW SHSN MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH ID...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE SE...REACHING OUR AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...WITH MODELS REMAINING
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. WILL SEE PRECIP SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL TO
ERN MTS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE ERN RANGES N OF KVTP...AND ALONG THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NR 6000 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME WET FLAKES POSSIBLE VC KCOS FOR THE LATE
COMMUTE. TEMPS LIKELY WILL HIGH THEIR MAX EARLY IN THE DAY...NOON
OR SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WITH THE LAST
SYSTEM BUT LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
OVER OUR AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM...REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A BULLS EYE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE 600MB SURFACE OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C...WHICH STARTS TO
BE IN THE REGION FOR FAVORABLE SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL RATE. WITH VERY
WARM GROUND...LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING.
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. CURRENTLY...LOOKS LIKE ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL HAVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...SOME ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTHERN
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PASSING OVER THE PLAINS. COLD AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A MODEST WARM UP
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMED MAXIMUMS ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT
TO VALUES IN THE GUIDANCE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST US.
SOME MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM EAST OF HAWAII INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
THIS SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MILD AND HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO COLORADO.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE SOME POPS IN THE GRIDS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR MORE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLER DAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT THAN EC WITH STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE EC IS FURTHER NORTH.
CURRENTLY FORECAST IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WHICH IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS STAYING FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR ERN
PLAINS. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS FROM THE SW DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AFTER 20-21Z...COULD SEE SHOWERS OF RASN DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY VC KCOS. PALMER DVD COULD SEE SOME SN AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS BY THIS TIME...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED EVE. BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL 00-06Z THU. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 160327
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
927 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

ONLY MADE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS TO BRING
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY. EVENING MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY STILL SEE A ROUND OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE PLAINS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS
THE STATE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL MOISTENING WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BIT OF CLEARING FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
TROF AND NOW APPEARS WILL COME ACROSS WEAKER WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST DP/DT OF THE GFS HAS SHOWN A
CONTINUED WEAKER TROF OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS AND THE NAM/EUROPEAN
ARE SIMILAR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS BUT LOWER TO CHANCE POPS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST QG FORCING WILL ALSO GO SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
STILL POSSIBLE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER ZONES 36 AND 37 FOR
WED NIGHT BUT WAIT AND SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A MIX RAIN/SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND MAY GO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF COLD
AIR SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE PLAINS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE TROF
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LINGERING SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY CREATING A RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IT WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER COLORADO STARTING FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND RAIN TO THE
PLAINS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND THIS BEING A WARMER SYSTEM THEN PREVIOUS I WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND A CHANCE FOR
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH. WITH THESE FEATURES AND
EASTERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. ON MONDAY THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE NORMAL TO START OUT
YOUR WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 927 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. WINDS
MAY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ALL NIGHT DUE TO THE
DECENT WESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN/ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 160327
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
927 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

ONLY MADE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS TO BRING
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY. EVENING MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY STILL SEE A ROUND OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE PLAINS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS
THE STATE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL MOISTENING WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BIT OF CLEARING FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
TROF AND NOW APPEARS WILL COME ACROSS WEAKER WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST DP/DT OF THE GFS HAS SHOWN A
CONTINUED WEAKER TROF OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS AND THE NAM/EUROPEAN
ARE SIMILAR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS BUT LOWER TO CHANCE POPS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST QG FORCING WILL ALSO GO SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
STILL POSSIBLE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER ZONES 36 AND 37 FOR
WED NIGHT BUT WAIT AND SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A MIX RAIN/SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND MAY GO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF COLD
AIR SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE PLAINS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE TROF
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LINGERING SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY CREATING A RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IT WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER COLORADO STARTING FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND RAIN TO THE
PLAINS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND THIS BEING A WARMER SYSTEM THEN PREVIOUS I WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND A CHANCE FOR
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH. WITH THESE FEATURES AND
EASTERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. ON MONDAY THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE NORMAL TO START OUT
YOUR WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 927 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. WINDS
MAY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ALL NIGHT DUE TO THE
DECENT WESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN/ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 152258
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
458 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH MINIMAL ASCENT MOST OF THIS WILL SKIP US AND MOVE OFF TO THE
PLAINS. THIS BIGGEST ROLE THIS MOISTURE IS HAVING IS TO BUST MY
AFTERNOON HIGH FORECAST...LIMITING MIXING JUST ENOUGH THAT THE
COOLER PBL IS WINNING OUT AND TEMPS STRUGGLING. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM LIES UPSTREAM. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING A
DIGGING WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A JET DRIVEN SYSTEM ON IT/S HEELS IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

THIS FIRST SYSTEM TAKES THE STRONGEST LIFT TO OUR NORTH BUT DROPS A
TRAILING FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...SETTLING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE. AN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM
SOUTHEAST UTAH TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. ASCENT
FROM THE PASSING WAVE...FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT SNOW TO BE FOCUSED
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO OUTRUN THE
COLDER AIR SO EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ABOVE
7500 FEET. THE FRONT WILL BE LOOSING DEFINITION AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER
SOUTH AND LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS. DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE A DOWNTURN ON PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP LOWS A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COLORADO AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND
JET CORE ARRIVE IN UNISON. THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PUSH
SNOW LEVEL BACK UP AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH LOOKS TO
LIFT BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT THETA-E PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IF ANY IS RELEASED IT
WILL SLANTWISE RATHER THAN UPRIGHT. PWATS MAX OUT AT AROUND 0.40
INCHES AS THE LIFT ARRIVES...JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHALLENGE IS
TIMING OF MAX LIFT/PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN ACCUMS
BELOW 9000 FEET LOOK DIFFICULT. MODEL TRENDS STILL PLACE THE HIGHEST
QPF OVER THE ELKS/NORTHERN SAWATCH AND THE HIGHEST POINTS ON THE
NORTHEAST SAN JUAN RANGE. SOME SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 10000 FEET MAY BE
OVER THE 5 INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS CAUSING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL OR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS ARE TOO LOW TO PLACE IN HEADLINES ATTM. SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL
FALL IN MANY AREAS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE
REFOCUSING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A QUICK
DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS...OVERNIGHT AND LOWS ATTM LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FRUIT BEARING VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL BRING TWO STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT
7-8 DAYS WITH SHORT LIVED RIDGES IN BETWEEN. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION WITH DETAILS AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH
IT SEEMS SO FAR THIS SPRING THE FASTER GFS HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM USHERS IN A RELATIVELY MILD BUT MOIST OPEN
TROUGH FROM THE SW. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY AND BECOME
LIKELY ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH
AROUND 9KFT BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10-11KFT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BUT THERE
IS ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...MAINLY OVER THE
COLORADO MTNS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PRODUCE
COOLER AFTERNOONS.

THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE NEXT TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THREATENING WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING PACIFIC STORM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...LOWERING
CIGS AND BRINGING AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING PULLING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SOUTHWARD WITH IT.
THE BULK OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION COMES IN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 152148
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AS EXPECTED...PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. CLOUDS HAVE
NOT HAMPERED TEMPS...WHICH ARE PRESENTLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SAVE FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS...BUT WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS AT HT CLIMBING ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
LAST NIGHT...INCREASED WRLY FLOW...AND INCREASED CLOUDS. SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING MOST SPOTS E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE A FEW SHSN MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH ID...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE SE...REACHING OUR AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...WITH MODELS REMAINING
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. WILL SEE PRECIP SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL TO
ERN MTS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE ERN RANGES N OF KVTP...AND ALONG THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NR 6000 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME WET FLAKES POSSIBLE VC KCOS FOR THE LATE
COMMUTE. TEMPS LIKELY WILL HIGH THEIR MAX EARLY IN THE DAY...NOON
OR SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WITH THE LAST
SYSTEM BUT LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
OVER OUR AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM...REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A BULLS EYE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE 600MB SURFACE OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C...WHICH STARTS TO
BE IN THE REGION FOR FAVORABLE SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL RATE. WITH VERY
WARM GROUND...LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING.
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. CURRENTLY...LOOKS LIKE ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL HAVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...SOME ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTHERN
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PASSING OVER THE PLAINS. COLD AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A MODEST WARM UP
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMED MAXIMUMS ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT
TO VALUES IN THE GUIDANCE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST US.
SOME MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM EAST OF HAWAII INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
THIS SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MILD AND HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO COLORADO.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE SOME POPS IN THE GRIDS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR MORE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLER DAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT THAN EC WITH STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE EC IS FURTHER NORTH.
CURRENTLY FORECAST IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WHICH IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS STAYING FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR ERN
PLAINS. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS FROM THE SW DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AFTER 20-21Z...COULD SEE SHOWERS OF RASN DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY VC KCOS. PALMER DVD COULD SEE SOME SN AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS BY THIS TIME...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED EVE. BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL 00-06Z THU. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079>082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 152133
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
333 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH MINIMAL ASCENT MOST OF THIS WILL SKIP US AND MOVE OFF TO THE
PLAINS. THIS BIGGEST ROLE THIS MOISTURE IS HAVING IS TO BUST MY
AFTERNOON HIGH FORECAST...LIMITING MIXING JUST ENOUGH THAT THE
COOLER PBL IS WINNING OUT AND TEMPS STRUGGLING. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM LIES UPSTREAM. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING A
DIGGING WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A JET DRIVEN SYSTEM ON IT/S HEELS IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

THIS FIRST SYSTEM TAKES THE STRONGEST LIFT TO OUR NORTH BUT DROPS A
TRAILING FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...SETTLING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE. AN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM
SOUTHEAST UTAH TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. ASCENT
FROM THE PASSING WAVE...FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT SNOW TO BE FOCUSED
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO OUTRUN THE
COLDER AIR SO EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ABOVE
7500 FEET. THE FRONT WILL BE LOOSING DEFINITION AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER
SOUTH AND LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS. DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE A DOWNTURN ON PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP LOWS A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COLORADO AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND
JET CORE ARRIVE IN UNISON. THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PUSH
SNOW LEVEL BACK UP AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH LOOKS TO
LIFT BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT THETA-E PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IF ANY IS RELEASED IT
WILL SLANTWISE RATHER THAN UPRIGHT. PWATS MAX OUT AT AROUND 0.40
INCHES AS THE LIFT ARRIVES...JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHALLENGE IS
TIMING OF MAX LIFT/PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN ACCUMS
BELOW 9000 FEET LOOK DIFFICULT. MODEL TRENDS STILL PLACE THE HIGHEST
QPF OVER THE ELKS/NORTHERN SAWATCH AND THE HIGHEST POINTS ON THE
NORTHEAST SAN JUAN RANGE. SOME SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 10000 FEET MAY BE
OVER THE 5 INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS CAUSING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL OR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS ARE TOO LOW TO PLACE IN HEADLINES ATTM. SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL
FALL IN MANY AREAS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE
REFOCUSING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A QUICK
DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS...OVERNIGHT AND LOWS ATTM LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FRUIT BEARING VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL BRING TWO STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT
7-8 DAYS WITH SHORT LIVED RIDGES IN BETWEEN. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION WITH DETAILS AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH
IT SEEMS SO FAR THIS SPRING THE FASTER GFS HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL.

RIDGING BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM USHERS IN A RELATIVELY MILD BUT MOIST OPEN
TROUGH FROM THE SW. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY AND BECOME
LIKELY ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH
AROUND 9KFT BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10-11KFT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BUT THERE
IS ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...MAINLY OVER THE
COLORADO MTNS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PRODUCE
COOLER AFTERNOONS.

THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE NEXT TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THREATENING WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PASSING OVERHEAD LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS. A FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING PULLING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SOUTHWARD WITH IT. THE BULK OF THE STORM
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION COMES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WHEN
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS TO AREA FORECAST TERMINALS ARE MORE
LIKELY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KBOU 152044
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
244 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BIT OF CLEARING FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
TROF AND NOW APPEARS WILL COME ACROSS WEAKER WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST DP/DT OF THE GFS HAS SHOWN A
CONTINUED WEAKER TROF OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS AND THE NAM/EUROPEAN
ARE SIMILAR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS BUT LOWER TO CHANCE POPS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST QG FORCING WILL ALSO GO SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
STILL POSSIBLE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER ZONES 36 AND 37 FOR
WED NIGHT BUT WAIT AND SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A MIX RAIN/SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND MAY GO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF COLD
AIR SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE PLAINS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE TROF
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LINGERING SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY CREATING A RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IT WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER COLORADO STARTING FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND RAIN TO THE
PLAINS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND THIS BEING A WARMER SYSTEM THEN PREVIOUS I WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND A CHANCE FOR
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH. WITH THESE FEATURES AND
EASTERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. ON MONDAY THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE NORMAL TO START OUT
YOUR WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

LIGHT/VRBL WINDS AT DEN/APA STILL THIS AFTN WHILE ENOUGH MIXING
AT BJC FOR SOME WEST WINDS THERE. STILL MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
SW-W WINDS AT DEN/APA LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE RETURNING TO DRAINAGE
TNT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TNT AND WED AM
AS WINDS SHIFT NW TO NE BY WED AM. GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
AIRMASS DURING THE DAY ON WED BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OR JUST SOME VIRGA AROUND.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN/ENTREKIN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 152044
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
244 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BIT OF CLEARING FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
TROF AND NOW APPEARS WILL COME ACROSS WEAKER WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST DP/DT OF THE GFS HAS SHOWN A
CONTINUED WEAKER TROF OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS AND THE NAM/EUROPEAN
ARE SIMILAR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS BUT LOWER TO CHANCE POPS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST QG FORCING WILL ALSO GO SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
STILL POSSIBLE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER ZONES 36 AND 37 FOR
WED NIGHT BUT WAIT AND SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A MIX RAIN/SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND MAY GO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF COLD
AIR SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE PLAINS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE TROF
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LINGERING SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY CREATING A RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IT WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER COLORADO STARTING FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND RAIN TO THE
PLAINS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND THIS BEING A WARMER SYSTEM THEN PREVIOUS I WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND A CHANCE FOR
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH. WITH THESE FEATURES AND
EASTERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. ON MONDAY THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE NORMAL TO START OUT
YOUR WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

LIGHT/VRBL WINDS AT DEN/APA STILL THIS AFTN WHILE ENOUGH MIXING
AT BJC FOR SOME WEST WINDS THERE. STILL MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
SW-W WINDS AT DEN/APA LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE RETURNING TO DRAINAGE
TNT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TNT AND WED AM
AS WINDS SHIFT NW TO NE BY WED AM. GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
AIRMASS DURING THE DAY ON WED BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OR JUST SOME VIRGA AROUND.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN/ENTREKIN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 152044
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
244 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BIT OF CLEARING FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
TROF AND NOW APPEARS WILL COME ACROSS WEAKER WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST DP/DT OF THE GFS HAS SHOWN A
CONTINUED WEAKER TROF OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS AND THE NAM/EUROPEAN
ARE SIMILAR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS BUT LOWER TO CHANCE POPS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST QG FORCING WILL ALSO GO SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
STILL POSSIBLE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER ZONES 36 AND 37 FOR
WED NIGHT BUT WAIT AND SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A MIX RAIN/SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND MAY GO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF COLD
AIR SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE PLAINS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE TROF
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LINGERING SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY CREATING A RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IT WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER COLORADO STARTING FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND RAIN TO THE
PLAINS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND THIS BEING A WARMER SYSTEM THEN PREVIOUS I WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND A CHANCE FOR
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH. WITH THESE FEATURES AND
EASTERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. ON MONDAY THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE NORMAL TO START OUT
YOUR WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

LIGHT/VRBL WINDS AT DEN/APA STILL THIS AFTN WHILE ENOUGH MIXING
AT BJC FOR SOME WEST WINDS THERE. STILL MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
SW-W WINDS AT DEN/APA LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE RETURNING TO DRAINAGE
TNT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TNT AND WED AM
AS WINDS SHIFT NW TO NE BY WED AM. GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
AIRMASS DURING THE DAY ON WED BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OR JUST SOME VIRGA AROUND.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN/ENTREKIN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 152044
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
244 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BIT OF CLEARING FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THE LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
TROF AND NOW APPEARS WILL COME ACROSS WEAKER WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST DP/DT OF THE GFS HAS SHOWN A
CONTINUED WEAKER TROF OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS AND THE NAM/EUROPEAN
ARE SIMILAR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS BUT LOWER TO CHANCE POPS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST QG FORCING WILL ALSO GO SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
STILL POSSIBLE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER ZONES 36 AND 37 FOR
WED NIGHT BUT WAIT AND SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A MIX RAIN/SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND MAY GO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF COLD
AIR SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE PLAINS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE TROF
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LINGERING SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY CREATING A RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IT WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER COLORADO STARTING FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND RAIN TO THE
PLAINS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND THIS BEING A WARMER SYSTEM THEN PREVIOUS I WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND A CHANCE FOR
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH. WITH THESE FEATURES AND
EASTERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. ON MONDAY THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE NORMAL TO START OUT
YOUR WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

LIGHT/VRBL WINDS AT DEN/APA STILL THIS AFTN WHILE ENOUGH MIXING
AT BJC FOR SOME WEST WINDS THERE. STILL MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
SW-W WINDS AT DEN/APA LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE RETURNING TO DRAINAGE
TNT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TNT AND WED AM
AS WINDS SHIFT NW TO NE BY WED AM. GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
AIRMASS DURING THE DAY ON WED BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OR JUST SOME VIRGA AROUND.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN/ENTREKIN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 151840
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1240 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES IN COMBINATION WITH BELOW SEASONAL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SECTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION.  LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER BACA COUNTY...HOWEVER RECENT SNOW UP 4
INCHES DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY AS
WELL AS RECENT/LATEST LAND AGENCY INFORMATION THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 232...233
AND 237(OTERO...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES RESPECTIVELY)
WILL PRECLUDE ANY NIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MID-APRIL AVERAGES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...MORE BENEFICIAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER INNOCUOUS WEATHER SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING MORE BENEFICIAL
PRECIP TO THE REGION WED AND WED NITE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS
AND ADJ I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WED NITE. THE C MTN REGION WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIP. AREAS WHICH MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP INCLUDE THE SW MTNS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE S MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PD...12Z WED...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE CO/NM BORDER BY LATE
MORNING...WITH FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. IN THE MEANTIME...A DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE C MTN REGION DURING THE MORNING.

BY LATER WED AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST AND
DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY EVENING...THE PRECIP OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR/S MTN REGION WILL BE AT ITS HEAVIEST AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH WELL DEFINED 700 MB CONVERGENCE AFFECTS THE REGION.
ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WELL DEFINED "QPF MAXIMUMS" ALONG THE I-25/S
MTN AREAS AND HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE WHY THIS WILL NOT VERIFY.
MODELS SHOW OVER 1/2" OF LIQUID AND THESE VALUES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT JUST
WENT BY...SO WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW BELOW ~6500 FEET AS WE DID
THE OTHER DAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW GENERALLY
ABOVE 7500 FEET...WITH ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE PIKE
PEAK/WET MTN/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN REGIONS. ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO
GO WITH HILITES...BUT WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY FOR THE S MTN AREAS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT NOT
MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH COMING IN FROM SOUTHERN
CALIF...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND..ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WX IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL SEE SFC WINDS AND WINDS ALOFT PICK UP A BIT FROM THE WEST
TO SW TODAY...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE E OVER THE PLAINS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WED. INITIAL PRECIP WILL BE RAIN FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FT MSL...BUT WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE TO SNOW
AT KCOS AND KPUB LATER WED EVE...AFTER 22-00Z FOR KCOS AND 01-03Z
FOR KPUB. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 151745
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

H5 ANALYSIS HAD RIDGE AXIS FROM SW TO NORTHEAST OVER OUR CWA
AT 12Z. THIS AXIS IS PUSHING EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
OVER THE PAC NW IS DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMP TREND
IS DOING BETTER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND GOING FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE CLOSE. WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL TWEAKS BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MIXING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BOOST HIGH UP SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER THE POST FRONTAL REGIME OF YESTERDAY.
WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE DELTA/MONTROSE
AREAS UNTIL 8 AM. TEMPS HAVE DIPPED BELOW 32F AT THE MONTROSE AND
DELTA AIRPORTS...BUT DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE MERCURY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE GRAND JCT AIRPORT SO FAR.

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS A PACIFIC STORM PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO WY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH. IT WILL
ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...THEN INTO THE
SOUTH WED. MODELS SHOW DECENT COLD ADVECTION AT 700 MB BUT HOLD THE
BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A
BIT LACKING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW THEN
WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY WED MORNING. A SECOND WAVE WILL BRING BETTER
JET SUPPORT BY WED AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SEE SHIFT FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON WED. SOME MTN AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE
AND AREAS EAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SRN
MTNS...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE RAPID MOVEMENT NOT MUCH
MORE CAN BE EXPECTED. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE EFFECTS OF A TRANSITORY
RIDGE AS TEMPS REBOUND SOME AND SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANOTHER WEEKEND
STORM IS LINING UP AS BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TWO MODELS GETTING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH THE FINER DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL KICK
OFF FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS STORM...AROUND 10K FEET OR
SO...THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DROP LEVELS SOMEWHAT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING. IN FACT...THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKENDS STORM THOUGH
AGAIN...THE FINER DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PASSING OVERHEAD LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS. A FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING PULLING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SOUTHWARD WITH IT. THE BULK OF THE STORM
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION COMES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WHEN
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS TO AREA FORECAST TERMINALS ARE MORE
LIKELY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KBOU 151541
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
941 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WAVE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WYOMING AND UTAH. THE WRF SIMULATED GOES R
IMAGERY SHOWED THIS QUITE WELL AND SHOWS THIS WAVE CLOUD OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY BUT MAY TRY AND PEEL OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL DROP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. DUE TO CONTINUED SNOW COVER OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS THERE AS WELL.

EXPECT SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASED WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BUMP UP WINDS IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
TONIGHT...SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASING
AFTER 06Z. HAVE GONE WITH CHC CATEGORY FOR SNOW IN THE NRN
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. LIFT FROM THE JET
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AGAIN. APPEARS WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOWING THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS TO PIKES PEAK
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO STILL COULD SEE SOME WEAK RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY ADDITIONAL PERCEPTION THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
CAUSE A RIDGE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND AND START TO AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A WARMER SYSTEM THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO. EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. NOT A WELL DEFINED OR
STRONG SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES SUNDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM STARTS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW....EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

STIL DECENT S-SW WINDS AT APA/DEN WHILE WINDS AT BJC HAVE BEEN
LIGHT/VRB. EXPECT MORE SW-W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS MIX
OUT. HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND
MAY KEEP WINDS MORE S-SW. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION ON THE LOW
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED WENESDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 151541
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
941 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WAVE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WYOMING AND UTAH. THE WRF SIMULATED GOES R
IMAGERY SHOWED THIS QUITE WELL AND SHOWS THIS WAVE CLOUD OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY BUT MAY TRY AND PEEL OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL DROP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. DUE TO CONTINUED SNOW COVER OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS THERE AS WELL.

EXPECT SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASED WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BUMP UP WINDS IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
TONIGHT...SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASING
AFTER 06Z. HAVE GONE WITH CHC CATEGORY FOR SNOW IN THE NRN
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. LIFT FROM THE JET
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AGAIN. APPEARS WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOWING THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS TO PIKES PEAK
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO STILL COULD SEE SOME WEAK RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY ADDITIONAL PERCEPTION THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
CAUSE A RIDGE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND AND START TO AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A WARMER SYSTEM THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO. EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. NOT A WELL DEFINED OR
STRONG SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES SUNDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM STARTS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW....EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

STIL DECENT S-SW WINDS AT APA/DEN WHILE WINDS AT BJC HAVE BEEN
LIGHT/VRB. EXPECT MORE SW-W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS MIX
OUT. HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND
MAY KEEP WINDS MORE S-SW. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION ON THE LOW
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED WENESDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 151024
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
424 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES IN COMBINATION WITH BELOW SEASONAL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SECTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION.  LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER BACA COUNTY...HOWEVER RECENT SNOW UP 4
INCHES DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY AS
WELL AS RECENT/LATEST LAND AGENCY INFORMATION THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 232...233
AND 237(OTERO...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES RESPECTIVELY)
WILL PRECLUDE ANY NIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MID-APRIL AVERAGES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...MORE BENEFICIAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER INNOCUOUS WEATHER SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING MORE BENEFICIAL
PRECIP TO THE REGION WED AND WED NITE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS
AND ADJ I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WED NITE. THE C MTN REGION WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIP. AREAS WHICH MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP INCLUDE THE SW MTNS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE S MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PD...12Z WED...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE CO/NM BORDER BY LATE
MORNING...WITH FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. IN THE MEANTIME...A DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE C MTN REGION DURING THE MORNING.

BY LATER WED AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST AND
DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY EVENING...THE PRECIP OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR/S MTN REGION WILL BE AT ITS HEAVIEST AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH WELL DEFINED 700 MB CONVERGENCE AFFECTS THE REGION.
ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WELL DEFINED "QPF MAXIMUMS" ALONG THE I-25/S
MTN AREAS AND HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE WHY THIS WILL NOT VERIFY.
MODELS SHOW OVER 1/2" OF LIQUID AND THESE VALUES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT JUST
WENT BY...SO WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW BELOW ~6500 FEET AS WE DID
THE OTHER DAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW GENERALLY
ABOVE 7500 FEET...WITH ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE PIKE
PEAK/WET MTN/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN REGIONS. ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO
GO WITH HILITES...BUT WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY FOR THE S MTN AREAS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT NOT
MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH COMING IN FROM SOUTHERN
CALIF...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND..ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WX IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO
BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KBOU 150942
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
TONIGHT...SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASING
AFTER 06Z. HAVE GONE WITH CHC CATEGORY FOR SNOW IN THE NRN
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. LIFT FROM THE JET
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AGAIN. APPEARS WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOWING THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS TO PIKES PEAK
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO STILL COULD SEE SOME WEAK RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY ADDITIONAL PERCEPTION THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
CAUSE A RIDGE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND AND START TO AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A WARMER SYSTEM THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO. EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. NOT A WELL DEFINED OR
STRONG SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES SUNDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM STARTS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW....EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SWLY WINDS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THIS AFTN. AFTER 02Z SSWLY WINDS UNTIL
09Z...THEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DENVER
AREA. NWLY WINDS FOLLOWING FROPA |WILL TRANSITION TO NELY AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME WITH CIGS AOA 040 AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 150942
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
TONIGHT...SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASING
AFTER 06Z. HAVE GONE WITH CHC CATEGORY FOR SNOW IN THE NRN
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. LIFT FROM THE JET
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AGAIN. APPEARS WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOWING THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS TO PIKES PEAK
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO STILL COULD SEE SOME WEAK RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY ADDITIONAL PERCEPTION THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
CAUSE A RIDGE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND AND START TO AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A WARMER SYSTEM THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO. EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. NOT A WELL DEFINED OR
STRONG SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES SUNDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM STARTS TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW....EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SWLY WINDS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THIS AFTN. AFTER 02Z SSWLY WINDS UNTIL
09Z...THEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DENVER
AREA. NWLY WINDS FOLLOWING FROPA |WILL TRANSITION TO NELY AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME WITH CIGS AOA 040 AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 150903
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE DELTA/MONTROSE
AREAS UNTIL 8 AM. TEMPS HAVE DIPPED BELOW 32F AT THE MONTROSE AND
DELTA AIRPORTS...BUT DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE MERCURY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE GRAND JCT AIRPORT SO FAR.

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS A PACIFIC STORM PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO WY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH. IT WILL
ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...THEN INTO THE
SOUTH WED. MODELS SHOW DECENT COLD ADVECTION AT 700 MB BUT HOLD THE
BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO A
BIT LACKING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW THEN
WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY WED MORNING. A SECOND WAVE WILL BRING BETTER
JET SUPPORT BY WED AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SEE SHIFT FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON WED. SOME MTN AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE
AND AREAS EAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SRN
MTNS...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE RAPID MOVEMENT NOT MUCH
MORE CAN BE EXPECTED. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE EFFECTS OF A TRANSITORY
RIDGE AS TEMPS REBOUND SOME AND SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANOTHER WEEKEND
STORM IS LINING UP AS BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TWO MODELS GETTING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH THE FINER DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL KICK
OFF FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS STORM...AROUND 10K FEET OR
SO...THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DROP LEVELS SOMEWHAT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING. IN FACT...THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKENDS STORM THOUGH
AGAIN...THE FINER DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH POSSIBLE UP NORTH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ006-011.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KPUB 150517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TODAY WITH
SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR IN PLACE. THE COLD SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL. FOG MAY BE
AN ISSUE ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE FROM TODAY`S
SNOWMELT COUPLED WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF GROUND FOG FORMATION. WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

BY TOMORROW...AIR FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARM UP.
AFTER HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...READINGS ON
TUESDAY WILL RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...PRETTY MUCH
CHARACTERIZING APRIL IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. LW

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

...MORE SNOW LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NEXT SYSTEM IS ON TRACK FOR WED-THU. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
INTER-MTN REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN ON THROUGH CO WED INTO THU. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY ON WED...BUT COLDEST
AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT TO ARRIVE...SO COULD SEE TEMPS
REACH THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER
THE PLAINS WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVE WILL FALL AS RAIN...AS SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL FROM 6000 FEET TO AROUND 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT.
SNOW AT KPUB WILL BE A CLOSE CALL BUT SUSPECT WITH HEAVY ENOUGH
ACTIVITY AND FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT TIMING...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF SNOW LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MORE LIKELY TO
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT KCOS. FAVORED REGIONS WILL BE THE EASTERN
MOUNTAIN RANGES AS SFC TO H7 WINDS STAY ERLY OR UPSLOPE THROUGH MUCH
OF WED NIGHT. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7K FEET COULD AGAIN SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF A FOOT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TARGETING TELLER COUNTY
AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR THE HIGHEST QPF THIS EVENT. EXPECT
WINTER STORM WATCHES TO BE ISSUED SOMETIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. TEMPS AT H7 FALL
TO AROUND MINUS 6 TO MINUS 8 WED NIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
YESTERDAY`S SYSTEM BUT COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS STAY GENERALLY UPSLOPE FOR MOST OF WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING...AND THERE IS GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT IN THE 295-
300K LAYER. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR ALL OF SERN CO...TO LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING PLAINS. EVEN THE FAR ERN PLAINS
SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP BY THU MORNING.

AFTER A COOL AND UNSETTLED DAY ON THU...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
DAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE THU
INTO FRI MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
WITH THE SRN BRANCH OF THIS SYSTEM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO
THE E-NE FROM THE DESERT SW ON SATURDAY. IF THE EC VERIFIES...COULD
SEE A BIT OF A DRYLINE FORM NR THE KS BORDER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A STRONG STORM OR TWO SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND
KEEPS THE 40 PLUS DEWPOINTS FARTHER E INTO KS. REGARDLESS OF
MODEL...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE RAIN SHOWERS. WARM CONDITIONS WITH FEWER SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE SNOWMELT THAT OCCURRED ON
MONDAY...ADDING A LITTLE MSTR TO THE AIR...WE COULD SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB. AT KALS THE SAME THING COULD
HAPPEN ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY A BIT OF A BREEZE AT KALS IS KEEPING THE
DEW POINT QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...ONCE THE WINDS GO CALM OR VERY
LIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS IN THE VCNTY. CONFIDENCE IN A
LOW CIG DEVELOPING IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KGJT 150430
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1030 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE 10-15 COLDER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION. WHERE SOME FRUIT TREES WERE BLOSSOMING IN THE
GRAND AND LOWER UNCOMPAHGRE/GUNNISON VALLEYS...MORNING
TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE TONIGHT EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER EXPOSED SLOPES WHERE A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS LESS COLD. LATEST
GUIDANCE AGAIN SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
GRAND JUNCTION AND MONTROSE AREAS. SO A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

HIGH CLOUDS AND SW-W GRADIENT WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL END THE VALLEY FREEZES FOR AWHILE. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH DROPS ACROSS WYOMING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK 80KT JET STREAK IN NW COLORADO. LIGHT
MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE TRAILING AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WILL DIG
THROUGH UTAH AND INTO COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ALTHOUGH
THE TROF IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER IN THE GFS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COOL THE TEMPERATURES BY 5
TO 10 DEGREES WEDNESDAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTION OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. FOR NOW MODELS
INDICATE SNOW AMOUNTS WELL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER FOR
EVALUATION.

THE TROF EXITS THURSDAY ALLOWING A TRANSITORY RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION. SHOWERS SHOULD END EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE. THE
RIDGE AXIS REACHES EASTERN UT BY FRIDAY. AFTER THIS POINT IN TIME THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS SLIDES AN OPEN TROF OVER HEAD
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND
CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND KEEPS UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST...WILL HAVE TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN
OR TWO TO SEE TRENDS. BOTH SCENARIOS INCLUDE SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY SO WILL TAKE A BLEND AND LEAVE THEM LOW
CHANCE FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST TREND FOR NOW WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN WEAKENING TUESDAY AS THE
NEXT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 19Z TUE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AFTER 22Z TUE...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS AND THE
FLATTOPS AFTER 00Z WED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ006-011.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 150300
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
900 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SOME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD IN THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOMORROW...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR ALL
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE PLAINS. EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
AND WARMER MAKES A GOOD FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH MIXING AND NORTHWEST SURFACE GRADIENT
GENERATING GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
AIRMASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WEAKENS THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE WINDS
DECREASE AS A RESULT. WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BE FAIRLY
COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGE OVER GREAT BASIN BUILDS
TOWARD COLORADO. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO GENERATE A WAVE CLOUD
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. LATEST SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WAVE CLOUD IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THOUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AMOUNT OF WAVE CLOUD MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. BUT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TAKING
PLACE...FEEL HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S. LOWERED THE HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEAST LOGAN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IN SOME AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL TREND UPWARDS THE
POPS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
DECENT QG FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AGAIN OVER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AS
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TOO EARLY YET... BUT
MAY NEED MORE WINTER HILITES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...SHOULD SEE PRECIP STARTING AS RAIN AND
THEN TURN OVER TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE A
RETURN TO DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND AS EUROPEAN MODEL
SHOWS A WEAK LOW FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
DOES HAVE A STRONGER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH WHICH MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO ON FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL..WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. UNLIMITED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS




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