[top]
000
FXUS65 KPUB 252102
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
302 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MTS...AND INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY..
DEEPENING SFC LOW IN VCNTY OF KLHX HAS SPREAD SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS.
AS OF 20Z...SFC DRY LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM JUST EAST OF
KLAA...TO NEAR KSPD. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND EVEN SOME NEGATIVE
READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LATEST HRRR STILL
PUSHES THE DRY LINE INTO WESTERN KS BY 22Z...WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 30S ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. STILL CONCERNED
THAT SOME INITIAL CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS OUT THAT WAY. MOST
OF IT WILL BE HIGH BASED...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS. COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER IF CAPES CAN STAY UP HIGH ENOUGH.
SPC HAS UPDATED THE LATEST OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE EASTERN
KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES. INITIALLY 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
ARE AROUND 20-30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...BUT THESE VALUES
DO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...SO THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. EXPECT CONVECTION TO SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO KS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH OUTFLOWS MAY AID
WESTWARD RETREAT OF THE DRY LINE.
OVERNIGHT...DRY LINE PROGRESSES BACK WESTWARD BEFORE MIXING BACK
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER JET IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS ALL
AREAS LOOK TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SFC BOUNDARY
HANGS UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WITH DRY LINE EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL GO WITH NIL POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD STAY AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW RECORDS (COS 90...2012 PUB 97...2012 ALS 84...1969)...THOUGH
STILL WAY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
DIGS ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MINOR WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE SENDS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT
MIXES OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO INDICATING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WAVE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
LIMIT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT ANY RATE...COULD SEE BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS TO BE TOO MARGINAL
TO ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WITH THE PASSING WAVES...COULD
SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY DEVELOPS A LA JUNTA LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH SOME MORE HIGH BASED STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND SOUTHWEST MTS. MORE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PASSING TROUGH KEEPS CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODELS KEEP BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THOUGH LATEST ECMWF IS A TAD FURTHER WEST WITH DRY LINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS FALLING BACK TO
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLING ALOFT.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND PASSING TROUGH...KEEPING SLIGHT POPS DIURNAL POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS DECREASING TOWARDS 02Z. SHOULD SEE LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
RETURNING FOR THE TAF SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-222-225-
227.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ221-222-
225-227-233-237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
[top]
000
FXUS65 KBOU 252045
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
245 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS HELD ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WAS BECOMING MORE DEFINED FROM THE
ARAPAHOE/ELBERT COUNTY LINE EASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY. CUMULUS TOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS LINE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE WAS A
LITTLE CUMULUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST WELD
COUNTY...BUT INITIATION IN THIS AREA WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT WITH
CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE TOP. SURFACE CAPES 2500-3000
J/KG WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE LOWER 50S SO IF CONVECTION
CAN POP WE WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. MIXED LAYER CAPES SHOULD
BE CLOSER TO 1000-2000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...SEE THIS THREAT JUST A
SHADE WEST OF EARLIER FORECAST...POSSIBLY AS FAR BACK AS FORT
MORGAN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF CONVECTION
AND CIRRUS SHIELD SHIFTING EASTWARD. DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...COULD SEE ANOTHER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
STRATUS INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...LOOKS PRETTY MUCH LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DRY AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG DRYLINE FORMATION IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WILL BACK THINGS UP JUST ABOUT ANOTHER
COUNTY WESTWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON MODEL BIASES AND
POTENTIAL SURGES FROM CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION. COULD SEE A
COUPLE SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER AGAIN DUE TO AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY NEAR 2000-3000 J/KG.
.LONG TERM...ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR.
ON MONDAY....ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT EVEN THERE THE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SOME HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH HAS A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE PAC NW ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW BREAKS OFF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED BUT
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED BOTH DAYS. AS A RESULT...BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE AT THIS TIME...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. TIMING OF THE MDLS GETS ERRATIC BEYOND WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME DRYING BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE TRICKY AGAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR DENVER CYCLONE INDUCED MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING VERSUS POSSIBLE NORMAL TRANSITION TO
DRAINAGE. EVENTUAL DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 06Z WITH
RETURN TO NORMAL DIURNAL EASTERLIES BY 17Z-19Z SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
[top]
000
FXUS65 KGJT 251947
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
147 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
UPDATED TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO A RED FLAG WARNING. SEE UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW AND
RFWGJT FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
CO AND UT WILL BE UNDER MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NW. CONDITIONS WILL
BE WARM AND DRY...WITH WINDS JUST STRONG FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OVER SOUTHWEST CO THE FUELS REMAIN DRY AND TODAY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE
CO/UT/WY TRIPLE POINT WILL PRODUCE SOME MID AND HI CLOUD THIS
MORNING BUT THESE WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PAC NW LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MAINTAIN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW AN
UPSTREAM PACIFIC DISTURBANCE DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST NV
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENTERS SRN CA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE NOSE OF A WEAK UPPER JET MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A GUSTY CHARACTERISTIC TO THE AFTERNOON
WINDS. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE SRN CA DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOWARD MIDDAY ON MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES INTO NV LATE SUNDAY WILL LIFT ACROSS SRN
ID/WRN WY ON MONDAY AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW STILL
LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THESE SHOULD BRING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND IN TURN A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT
NO PRECIPITATION.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN
MOVING INLAND MONDAY. THE UPPER WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY SUNRISE TUE THE
NEGATIVE TILT TROF WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING
MID AND HI CLOUD SPREADING OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. THE
REMAINS OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING. WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY...DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WED
MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUE NIGHT AND WED. WESTERN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AS THE POLAR JET RIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS. DRIER AIR WITH NW FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ON AVERAGE
WILL RESULT IN AREAS MODERATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE THROUGH 03Z
SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CO ZONES 207 AND 291 WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL...AS DRY AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EASE AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE SAME
ZONES...207 AND 291...FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR LOW
HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND A HAINES INDEX OF 6. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED A DECREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH...
IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL ALLOW FOR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY SO RH
BELOW 15 PERCENT ALMOST CERTAIN.
AS THE LARGER-SCALE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND NEXT
WEEK....AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND HIGH/MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO MORE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INCLUDING DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ABOUT TUESDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-291.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ207-291.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC/JAD
LONG TERM...CC/JAD
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...CC/JAD/NL
000
FXUS65 KPUB 251705
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1105 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS MORNING...AND IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH FIRE
DANGER. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO DROP SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR AS YESTERDAY THEY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS AND SEE NO REASON WHY THEY WON`T DO THE
SAME TODAY. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS WELL AND HAVE
USED THESE GRIDS TO BLEND TOWARDS. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS
POINT TO BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED BACK WESTERN EXTENT OF
POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS.
LOOKS LIKE PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND WESTERN BACA COUNTY
COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DRY LINE SHOULD WAVER BACK
WESTWARD INTO BACA COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
ALONG THE DRY LINE. WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO SLACKEN OFF SOME ACROSS
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE SFC TROF DEEPENS AND BEST GRADIENT
SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE AREAS. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...HOT...
JULY-LIKE WX EXPECTED TODAY AS DRY SW WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AND PRECIP REMAINS MOSTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA.
H7 TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO...AND AFTER GETTING BURNED BY MX
TEMPS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS...WILL NOT MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE
TODAY AND HAVE GONE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...GIVING US LOWER
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. FORECAST HIGH OF 95 FOR KPUB THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 94 FOR THIS DATE.
FIRE WX STILL A CONCERN THRU THIS AFTERNOON. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
LOOK A BIT SPOTTY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO MARGINAL
WIND GUSTS...BUT WITH DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING GOING AS ISSUED. WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT TO GUARD AGAINST FIRE STARTS THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NM BORDER ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE. THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE
KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...SO ONLY A SLIGHT THREAT FOR TS
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HGWY 287 THROUGH BACA...PROWERS AND
KIOWA COUNTIES. THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO
RIGHT NR THE BORDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE A RATHER MILD NIGHT AS TEMPS ALOFT
STAY RATHER HIGH...AND S-SW WINDS ARE SLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE FAR ERN COUNTIES. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DRY LINE MAY MOVE WEST OF THE KANSAS BORDER DURING THE NIGHT...BUT
IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE KANSAS BORDER DURING THE DAY. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR ALL REGIONS OF THE CWA
WITH CRITICAL FUELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM REACHING
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS ARE MORE OF A CONCERN...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...WINDS MAY BE
LIGHTER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED LATER SHIFTS ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MONDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION. GRIDS ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS FOR BOTH DAYS
GIVEN DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
.TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL START APPROACHING COLORADO. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA. SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
SPEED AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH. EC HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH. THE
EC SOLUTION COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
EASTERN COLORADO RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH...KEEPING
WESTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN...IF ANY...FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...BUT A MAJORITY FOLLOW
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. GEM ALSO FOLLOWS GFS SOLUTION. WHILE MAJORITY
OF GUIDANCE FOLLOWS GFS...AM NOT DISMISSING EC SOLUTION YET GIVEN
EC PAST TRACK RECORD.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WOULD CONFINE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT WESTERLY FLOW WOULD LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT SHOWERS. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR ALL THREE LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO
AROUND 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE OVER/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AROUND 02Z...WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-222-225-
227.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ221-222-225-227-233-237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT
000
FXUS65 KGJT 251641
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1041 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
CO AND UT WILL BE UNDER MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NW. CONDITIONS WILL
BE WARM AND DRY...WITH WINDS JUST STRONG FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OVER SOUTHWEST CO THE FUELS REMAIN DRY AND TODAY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE
CO/UT/WY TRIPLE POINT WILL PRODUCE SOME MID AND HI CLOUD THIS
MORNING BUT THESE WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PAC NW LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MAINTAIN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW AN
UPSTREAM PACIFIC DISTURBANCE DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST NV
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENTERS SRN CA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE NOSE OF A WEAK UPPER JET MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A GUSTY CHARACTERISTIC TO THE AFTERNOON
WINDS. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE SRN CA DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOWARD MIDDAY ON MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES INTO NV LATE SUNDAY WILL LIFT ACROSS SRN
ID/WRN WY ON MONDAY AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW STILL
LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THESE SHOULD BRING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND IN TURN A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT
NO PRECIPITATION.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN
MOVING INLAND MONDAY. THE UPPER WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY SUNRISE TUE THE
NEGATIVE TILT TROF WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING
MID AND HI CLOUD SPREADING OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. THE
REMAINS OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING. WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY...DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WED
MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUE NIGHT AND WED. WESTERN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AS THE POLAR JET RIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS. DRIER AIR WITH NW FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ON AVERAGE
WILL RESULT IN AREAS MODERATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE THROUGH 03Z
SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DIRECTED AT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
CO ZONES 207 AND 291 WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE SAME ZONES...207 AND
291...FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND A
HAINES INDEX OF 6. GUST STRENGTH WILL BE DEPENDENT IN PART ON THE
AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
HEATING AND THE RESULTANT MIXING WILL BE THE PRIMARY GENERATORS OF
THE GUSTS. CONFIDENT THAT LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THESE
ZONES WILL BE OBSERVED SUNDAY...BUT STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HENCE... THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A CHANCE
TO RE-EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE...AND ALSO SEE HOW TODAY TURNS OUT.
AS THE LARGER-SCALE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND NEXT
WEEK....AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND HIGH/MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO MORE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INCLUDING DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ABOUT TUESDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-291.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ207-291.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC/JAD
LONG TERM...CC/JAD
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...CC/JAD
000
FXUS65 KPUB 251622
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1022 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS MORNING...AND IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH FIRE
DANGER. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO DROP SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR AS YESTERDAY THEY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS AND SEE NO REASON WHY THEY WON`T DO THE
SAME TODAY. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS WELL AND HAVE
USED THESE GRIDS TO BLEND TOWARDS. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS
POINT TO BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED BACK WESTERN EXTENT OF
POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS.
LOOKS LIKE PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND WESTERN BACA COUNTY
COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DRY LINE SHOULD WAVER BACK
WESTWARD INTO BACA COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
ALONG THE DRY LINE. WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO SLACKEN OFF SOME ACROSS
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS THE SFC TROF DEEPENS AND BEST GRADIENT
SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE AREAS. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...HOT...
JULY-LIKE WX EXPECTED TODAY AS DRY SW WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AND PRECIP REMAINS MOSTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA.
H7 TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO...AND AFTER GETTING BURNED BY MX
TEMPS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS...WILL NOT MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE
TODAY AND HAVE GONE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...GIVING US LOWER
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. FORECAST HIGH OF 95 FOR KPUB THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 94 FOR THIS DATE.
FIRE WX STILL A CONCERN THRU THIS AFTERNOON. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
LOOK A BIT SPOTTY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO MARGINAL
WIND GUSTS...BUT WITH DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING GOING AS ISSUED. WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT TO GUARD AGAINST FIRE STARTS THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NM BORDER ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE. THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE
KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...SO ONLY A SLIGHT THREAT FOR TS
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HGWY 287 THROUGH BACA...PROWERS AND
KIOWA COUNTIES. THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO
RIGHT NR THE BORDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE A RATHER MILD NIGHT AS TEMPS ALOFT
STAY RATHER HIGH...AND S-SW WINDS ARE SLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE FAR ERN COUNTIES. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DRY LINE MAY MOVE WEST OF THE KANSAS BORDER DURING THE NIGHT...BUT
IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE KANSAS BORDER DURING THE DAY. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR ALL REGIONS OF THE CWA
WITH CRITICAL FUELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM REACHING
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS ARE MORE OF A CONCERN...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...WINDS MAY BE
LIGHTER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED LATER SHIFTS ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MONDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION. GRIDS ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS FOR BOTH DAYS
GIVEN DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
.TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL START APPROACHING COLORADO. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA. SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
SPEED AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH. EC HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH. THE
EC SOLUTION COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
EASTERN COLORADO RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH...KEEPING
WESTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN...IF ANY...FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...BUT A MAJORITY FOLLOW
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. GEM ALSO FOLLOWS GFS SOLUTION. WHILE MAJORITY
OF GUIDANCE FOLLOWS GFS...AM NOT DISMISSING EC SOLUTION YET GIVEN
EC PAST TRACK RECORD.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WOULD CONFINE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT WESTERLY FLOW WOULD LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT SHOWERS. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 H. STORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEAR THE KS BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A COUPLE
COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SOME HAIL. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
GUSTY FROM THE S TO SW OVR THE ERN CO PLAINS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-222-225-
227.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ221-222-225-227-233-237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE
000
FXUS65 KBOU 251553
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
953 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...IT WAS STILL LESS THAN 2000 FEET
DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND MOST OF THIS IS STILL SLATED TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER MIXING
AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. ANY STORMS THAT
FIRE WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH 89F/52F. WE DO ANTICIPATE SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT INTO THE UPDRAFTS THOUGH WITH SUCH DRY AIR JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ANY CASE...MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT FORECAST OF VFR CONDITIONS AND DENVER CYCLONE
WIND PATTERN LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AND DRY AIR TO COLORADO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS BACKED INTO THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
THIS MORNING AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE
TO HANG ON OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS FOR THIS...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF COLORADO. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. A FEW LOWER 90S MAY ALSO BE MIXED IN.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE
WARM AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS MILD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE
50 DEGREES.
LONG TERM...NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EWRD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL RETURN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER NORTHEAST OF DENVER COULD SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S. LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH MIN RH
VALUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S...AND WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO LATE DAY STORMS FORMING IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER. WITH WEAK SHEAR...SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A FREEZING
LEVEL QUITE HIGH...GENERAL THREAT FROM THESE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. FOR NOW...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS
APPEARS QUITE CAPPED WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.
ON MONDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EWRD MARCH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN AND AND NRN ROCKIES...PLACING COLORADO UNDER A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SUCH A FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT PERHAPS OUT
NEAR THE NEB BORDER WHERE A LIGHT NELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD
DEWPOINTS TO THE 40S/LOWER 50S. AS WAS THE CASE ON SUNDAY...COULD
SEE A STRAY T-STORM OR TWO OUT NEAR THE CORNER LATE IN THE DAY. MTN
AREAS MAY ALSO SEE A FEW LATE DAY STORMS POP WITH STG HEATING AND
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER DUE TO SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE LARGE OPEN WAVE UPPER
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR LIFT APPEARS TO PASS
NORTH OF COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN MODEL STILL INDICATED A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A SHARPLY CURVED LOBE OF THE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWRD OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...THE MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A DAY OF ACTIVE IF NOT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT STANDS...PREFER TO GO WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS...WHICH KEEPS STORMS ON WEDNESDAY LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. OF COURSE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS FORMING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH AND COOL AIR POOL ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. AIRMASS LOOKS CAPPED AND WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...PARTICULARLY ON
THE PLAINS. WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK
ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.
AVIATION...AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING HAZE AND A FEW LOW
CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE SOUTH OF DENVER AND LIKELY CREATE A DENVER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH
OF KDEN. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AROUND 00Z...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST
OF DENVER.
HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 251040
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
440 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...HOT...
JULY-LIKE WX EXPECTED TODAY AS DRY SW WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AND PRECIP REMAINS MOSTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA.
H7 TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO...AND AFTER GETTING BURNED BY MX
TEMPS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS...WILL NOT MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE
TODAY AND HAVE GONE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...GIVING US LOWER
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. FORECAST HIGH OF 95 FOR KPUB THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 94 FOR THIS DATE.
FIRE WX STILL A CONCERN THRU THIS AFTERNOON. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
LOOK A BIT SPOTTY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO MARGINAL
WIND GUSTS...BUT WITH DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE
RED FLAG WARNING GOING AS ISSUED. WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...IT
WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT TO GUARD AGAINST FIRE STARTS THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NM BORDER ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE. THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE
KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...SO ONLY A SLIGHT THREAT FOR TS
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HGWY 287 THROUGH BACA...PROWERS AND
KIOWA COUNTIES. THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO
RIGHT NR THE BORDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE A RATHER MILD NIGHT AS TEMPS ALOFT
STAY RATHER HIGH...AND S-SW WINDS ARE SLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE FAR ERN COUNTIES. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DRY LINE MAY MOVE WEST OF THE KANSAS BORDER DURING THE NIGHT...BUT
IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE KANSAS BORDER DURING THE DAY. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR ALL REGIONS OF THE CWA
WITH CRITICAL FUELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM REACHING
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS ARE MORE OF A CONCERN...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...WINDS MAY BE
LIGHTER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED LATER SHIFTS ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MONDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION. GRIDS ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS FOR BOTH DAYS
GIVEN DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
.TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL START APPROACHING COLORADO. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA. SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
SPEED AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH. EC HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH. THE
EC SOLUTION COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
EASTERN COLORADO RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH...KEEPING
WESTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN...IF ANY...FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE EC SOLUTION...BUT A MAJORITY FOLLOW
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. GEM ALSO FOLLOWS GFS SOLUTION. WHILE MAJORITY
OF GUIDANCE FOLLOWS GFS...AM NOT DISMISSING EC SOLUTION YET GIVEN
EC PAST TRACK RECORD.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WOULD CONFINE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT WESTERLY FLOW WOULD LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT SHOWERS. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 H. STORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEAR THE KS BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A COUPLE
COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SOME HAIL. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
GUSTY FROM THE S TO SW OVR THE ERN CO PLAINS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-225-227.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ221-222-225-227-233-237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE
000
FXUS65 KGJT 251032
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
432 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
CO AND UT WILL BE UNDER MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NW. CONDITIONS WILL
BE WARM AND DRY...WITH WINDS JUST STRONG FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OVER SOUTHWEST CO THE FUELS REMAIN DRY AND TODAY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE
CO/UT/WY TRIPLE POINT WILL PRODUCE SOME MID AND HI CLOUD THIS
MORNING BUT THESE WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PAC NW LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MAINTAIN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW AN
UPSTREAM PACIFIC DISTURBANCE DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST NV
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENTERS SRN CA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE NOSE OF A WEAK UPPER JET MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A GUSTY CHARACTERISTIC TO THE AFTERNOON
WINDS. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE SRN CA DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS TOWARD MIDDAY ON MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES INTO NV LATE SUNDAY WILL LIFT ACROSS SRN
ID/WRN WY ON MONDAY AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW STILL
LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THESE SHOULD BRING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND IN TURN A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT
NO PRECIPITATION.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN
MOVING INLAND MONDAY. THE UPPER WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY SUNRISE TUE THE
NEGATIVE TILT TROF WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING
MID AND HI CLOUD SPREADING OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. THE
REMAINS OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING. WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY...DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WED
MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUE NIGHT AND WED. WESTERN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AS THE POLAR JET RIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS. DRIER AIR WITH NW FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE AREAS
OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER THE RIDGES FROM LATE THIS MORNING
UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DIRECTED AT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
CO ZONES 207 AND 291 WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE SAME ZONES...207 AND
291...FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND A
HAINES INDEX OF 6. GUST STRENGTH WILL BE DEPENDENT IN PART ON THE
AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
HEATING AND THE RESULTANT MIXING WILL BE THE PRIMARY GENERATORS OF
THE GUSTS. CONFIDENT THAT LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THESE
ZONES WILL BE OBSERVED SUNDAY...BUT STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HENCE... THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A CHANCE
TO RE-EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE...AND ALSO SEE HOW TODAY TURNS OUT.
AS THE LARGER-SCALE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND NEXT
WEEK....AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND HIGH/MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO MORE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INCLUDING DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ABOUT TUESDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ207-291.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ207-291.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC/JAD
LONG TERM...CC/JAD
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC/JAD
000
FXUS65 KBOU 250953
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AND DRY AIR TO COLORADO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS BACKED INTO THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
THIS MORNING AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE
TO HANG ON OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS FOR THIS...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF COLORADO. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. A FEW LOWER 90S MAY ALSO BE MIXED IN.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE
WARM AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS MILD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE
50 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EWRD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL RETURN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER NORTHEAST OF DENVER COULD SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S. LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH MIN RH
VALUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S...AND WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO LATE DAY STORMS FORMING IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER. WITH WEAK SHEAR...SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A FREEZING
LEVEL QUITE HIGH...GENERAL THREAT FROM THESE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. FOR NOW...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS
APPEARS QUITE CAPPED WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.
ON MONDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EWRD MARCH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN AND AND NRN ROCKIES...PLACING COLORADO UNDER A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SUCH A FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT PERHAPS OUT
NEAR THE NEB BORDER WHERE A LIGHT NELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD
DEWPOINTS TO THE 40S/LOWER 50S. AS WAS THE CASE ON SUNDAY...COULD
SEE A STRAY T-STORM OR TWO OUT NEAR THE CORNER LATE IN THE DAY. MTN
AREAS MAY ALSO SEE A FEW LATE DAY STORMS POP WITH STG HEATING AND
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER DUE TO SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE LARGE OPEN WAVE UPPER
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR LIFT APPEARS TO PASS
NORTH OF COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN MODEL STILL INDICATED A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A SHARPLY CURVED LOBE OF THE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWRD OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...THE MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A DAY OF ACTIVE IF NOT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT STANDS...PREFER TO GO WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS...WHICH KEEPS STORMS ON WEDNESDAY LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. OF COURSE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS FORMING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH AND COOL AIR POOL ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. AIRMASS LOOKS CAPPED AND WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...PARTICULARLY ON
THE PLAINS. WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK
ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING HAZE AND A FEW LOW
CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE SOUTH OF DENVER AND LIKELY CREATE A DENVER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH
OF KDEN. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AROUND 00Z...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST
OF DENVER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
000
FXUS65 KPUB 250526
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW...PRODUCING
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS FRI AFTN. AT THE
SFC...INCREASING S-SW WINDS WERE HELPING TO WARM THINGS UP INTO THE
80S AND 90S WHILE PUSHING MOST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE EAST TOWARDS
KANSAS. AS OF 2 PM THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE WAS STILL HOLDING ONTO
A 49 DEWPOINT...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE I25
CORRIDOR HAD DRIED OUT INTO THE 30S AND THE COUPLE OF STORMS WERE
LEFT GASPING. STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE OUT THERE THOUGH...AS WAS
EVIDENT BY A VERY LARGE DUST DEVIL NEAR THE COMANCHE POWER PLANT.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO DIE OFF SOON AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLY
BECOMING SEVERE RIGHT ALONG THE CO AND KS BORDER WHERE THE AIR IS
THE JUICIEST. AS FOR THE ONGOING RED FLAG...HAD TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY THIS AFTN WHILE FREMONT COUNTY MOST LIKELY ACHIEVED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 8
PM. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS FOR SATURDAY...SAME PATTERN IN PLACE WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY
LOWER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOST AREAS SAVE FOR THE CO/KS BORDER.
700 AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM...SO AN EVEN HOTTER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S AND CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW RH
LEVELS. THEREFORE...UPGRADED THE ONGOING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING BUT DROPPED NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY SINCE LATEST FUELS
INFO IS A NO THERE. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER TOMORROW SO PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT FIRES SHOULD BE
TAKEN. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
GENERALLY HOT...GUSTY AND DUSTY OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF DRYLINE RELATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SKIRTING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EACH DAY. BEING ALONG
THE DRYLINE...THIS CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION...SO COULD GET BUSY AT TIMES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOS.
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE ALREADY OUT FOR THE FUEL RECEPTIVE PARTS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. MORE MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK...PENDING LATER MODEL DATA AND FUEL OBSERVATIONS.
AROUND WEDNESDAY...WE MAY SEE A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BUT NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THIS. SOME SUGGEST MORE LIMITED COOLING AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE.
SO...IT MAY END UP BEING COOLER AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL DRY.
EITHER WAY...IT WILL PROBABLY BE WINDY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THE POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL A LONG
WAY OFF...AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS LESS COOL AND WET WITH THE
CHANGE...THE ECMWF IS VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT A COOL...WET PERIOD.
TOO EARLY TO CALL...BUT ANOTHER COOL...WET PERIOD WOULD KIND OF
FIT THE OVERALL PATTERN WE`VE SEEN THIS SPRING. TIME WILL TELL. LW
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ221-222-
225-227.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KGJT 250459
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1059 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LESS WARM THAN ON
THURSDAY. AND THE LACK OF A PASSING DISTURBANCE TODAY HAS LOWERED
THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. PERSISTENCE IS THE BEST TOOL AS HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS WILL BE STRONGER WITH
ENHANCED DRAINAGE WINDS PROGGED IN GUIDANCE. THIN HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN
TO INVADE FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND PUSHES INTO OREGON EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS STILL PROGGED TO
INCREASE SATURDAY. THIS MAY SLIGHTLY MODIFY MAX TEMPERATURES AND MAY
ALSO IMPACT AFTERNOON MIXING WINDS. INVERSIONS TO SET UP QUICKLY ON
OR BEFORE SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
POINTED IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY WITH
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SKY AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET WHICH WILL KEEP SOME THREAT
OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY TO THOSE FOUND
THE PAST FEW DAYS...RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL BE FRAGMENTED BY THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW..THEN
A STRONGER UPSTREAM JET DIVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AS
THIS JET DIVES AND NORTHERN LATITUDE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK...A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND BRING A COOLING TREND TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ON MONDAY WILL SHEAR OUT TO OUR NORTH BUT SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BE ENTRAINED IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE SUB TROPICAL JET NOSES NORTHWARD. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE WELL ALOFT SO DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THIS WILL BE CHANGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE WESTERN TROF AXIS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE
WILL BE AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY MOVING IN WITH THE MOISTURE BUT
EXPECT MINIMAL PCPN OUTPUT FROM ISOLATED STORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MORE A WIND THREAT DUE TO INVERTED V PROFILES. PWATS WILL PUSH UP
TOWARD A HALF OF AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BE USED MORE
EFFICIENTLY BE MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT AHEAD AS THE TROF PUSHED ACROSS
OUR CWA. HOWEVER MODELS THIS FAR OUT AT STILL AT ODDS ON WHETHER
THIS ENERGY WILL BE SPLITTING (GFS) OR DIGGING (EURO) SOUTH OF OUR
AREA SO CONFIDENCE IN SOME DETAILS QUITE LOW...SO POPS REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO OR BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS TROF PASSAGE...AND WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD THE WARM UP IS NOT CLEAR ATTM
AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 16Z SATURDAY CAUSING MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE. THE STRONGEST TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF
RIDGES AND PEAKS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
THE UPPER PATTERN IS FAIRLY STAGNANT AT THE MOMENT WITH LOW
ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DIRECTED AT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND HIGH HAINES INDEX VALUES. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
BE WEAKENING HOWEVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE PICKING UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROF BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT THEN
RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH RED
FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ZONES 291 AND 207
THROUGH THIS TIME. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THESE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THE MOMENT ADDITIONAL FIRE WATCHES...BUT THIS CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED. AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN TOWARD THE MID WEEK
PERIOD AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO MORE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INCLUDING DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ207-291.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...15
000
FXUS65 KBOU 250223
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
823 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...TSTMS HAVE ENDED OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. A BNDRY
HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE BUT NO TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AS IT APPEARS AIRMASS IS CAPPED. STILL COULD
SEE AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER THRU MIDNIGHT
SO WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS OUT THERE.
.AVIATION...DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED BACK INTO THE
AIRPORT. LATEST RAP SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DVLP OVER
SRN WELD COUNTY BY 10Z HOWEVER LOW LVL WINDS ARE FCST TO BECOME
MORE SWLY BY THEN SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP STRATUS TO THE N AND NE OF
DIA FOR LATER TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS WILL KEEP THEN NELY THRU 05Z
AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT THEM BACK TO SSW AFTER 06Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S-
30S F OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE TEENS F
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS THEY
ARE IN THE 40S-50S F...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS
AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CIN OVER THE PLAINS RIGHT
NOW. THERE IS A DENVER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM AROUND MORRISON IN
JEFFERSON COUNTY TO CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY. MODELS KEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE BENIGN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE NORMAL DRAINAGE
TONIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS HANG ON TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT GOOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO STAY
ABOVE 50S F OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...OVER 2000 J/KG THIS EVENING. FOR POPS THIS
EVENING...WILL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP 10-30%S OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. THE SHEAR IS GOOD AND THE
MOISTURE PLENTIFUL. NO POPS ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY...THE DECENT
CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER AGAIN. THE SHEAR IS NOT
AS GOOD TO NO SEVERE MENTIONED THERE BUT WILL GO WITH 10-20%S FOR
LATER AFTERNOON. SATURDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 0-1.5 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S CURRENT HIGHS.
LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STAYS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRAINED IN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO EXPECTING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE 60S AND 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS DAY AFTER DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TAKING A TOLL ON THE FUELS AROUND THE STATE...HOWEVER CURRENTLY
THE FUELS ARE LISTED AS STILL BEING GREEN ENOUGH AFTER OUR LATE
SEASON MOISTURE. WILL KEEP EVALUATING THE FUELS EACH DAY TO
DETERMINE ANY NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. RIGHT NOW WINDS
LOOK TO BE RIGHT AT OR BELOW CRITERIA. A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CO/KS/NE STATE BORDERS KEEPING MOST OF
THE AREA DRY AND LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. CAPE
VALUES EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER WILL VARY BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A
VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SO ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MAINLY HAVE LITTLE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO MID-WEEK...THE PAC-NW TROUGH WILL
GET AN EXTRA SHOT OF ENERGY AND PUSH A TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
STATE. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE GETTING LESS AS THE ECMWF USED TO
DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH ITS DOING LESS NOW. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE...SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES OVER
THIS PERIOD. FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS TREND...ONLY MADE MINOR
EDITS.
AVIATION...PESKY WIND FIELDS TO DEAL WITH AS A DENVER CYCLONE IS
IN AND NEAR KDEN. NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY
WITH MOISTURE LACKING.
HYDROLOGY...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD GET UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH...BUT FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK
000
FXUS65 KPUB 242121
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW...PRODUCING
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS FRI AFTN. AT THE
SFC...INCREASING S-SW WINDS WERE HELPING TO WARM THINGS UP INTO THE
80S AND 90S WHILE PUSHING MOST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE EAST TOWARDS
KANSAS. AS OF 2 PM THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE WAS STILL HOLDING ONTO
A 49 DEWPOINT...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE I25
CORRIDOR HAD DRIED OUT INTO THE 30S AND THE COUPLE OF STORMS WERE
LEFT GASPING. STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE OUT THERE THOUGH...AS WAS
EVIDENT BY A VERY LARGE DUST DEVIL NEAR THE COMANCHE POWER PLANT.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO DIE OFF SOON AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLY
BECOMING SEVERE RIGHT ALONG THE CO AND KS BORDER WHERE THE AIR IS
THE JUICIEST. AS FOR THE ONGOING RED FLAG...HAD TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY THIS AFTN WHILE FREMONT COUNTY MOST LIKELY ACHIEVED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 8
PM. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS FOR SATURDAY...SAME PATTERN IN PLACE WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY
LOWER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MOST AREAS SAVE FOR THE CO/KS BORDER.
700 AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM...SO AN EVEN HOTTER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S AND CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW RH
LEVELS. THEREFORE...UPGRADED THE ONGOING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING BUT DROPPED NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY SINCE LATEST FUELS
INFO IS A NO THERE. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER TOMORROW SO PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT FIRES SHOULD BE
TAKEN. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
GENERALLY HOT...GUSTY AND DUSTY OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF DRYLINE RELATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SKIRTING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EACH DAY. BEING ALONG
THE DRYLINE...THIS CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION...SO COULD GET BUSY AT TIMES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOS.
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE ALREADY OUT FOR THE FUEL RECEPTIVE PARTS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. MORE MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK...PENDING LATER MODEL DATA AND FUEL OBSERVATIONS.
AROUND WEDNESDAY...WE MAY SEE A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BUT NOT ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THIS. SOME SUGGEST MORE LIMITED COOLING AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE.
SO...IT MAY END UP BEING COOLER AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL DRY.
EITHER WAY...IT WILL PROBABLY BE WINDY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THE POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL A LONG
WAY OFF...AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS LESS COOL AND WET WITH THE
CHANGE...THE ECMWF IS VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT A COOL...WET PERIOD.
TOO EARLY TO CALL...BUT ANOTHER COOL...WET PERIOD WOULD KIND OF
FIT THE OVERALL PATTERN WE`VE SEEN THIS SPRING. TIME WILL TELL. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY
AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH 05Z...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN MORE SPARSE SAT
AFTN AND EVE.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ221-222-
225-227.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOORE
000
FXUS65 KGJT 242103
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LESS WARM THAN ON
THURSDAY. AND THE LACK OF A PASSING DISTURBANCE TODAY HAS LOWERED
THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. PERSISTENCE IS THE BEST TOOL AS HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS WILL BE STRONGER WITH
ENHANCED DRAINAGE WINDS PROGGED IN GUIDANCE. THIN HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN
TO INVADE FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND PUSHES INTO OREGON EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS STILL PROGGED TO
INCREASE SATURDAY. THIS MAY SLIGHTLY MODIFY MAX TEMPERATURES AND MAY
ALSO IMPACT AFTERNOON MIXING WINDS. INVERSIONS TO SET UP QUICKLY ON
OR BEFORE SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
POINTED IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY WITH
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SKY AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET WHICH WILL KEEP SOME THREAT
OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY TO THOSE FOUND
THE PAST FEW DAYS...RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL BE FRAGMENTED BY THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW..THEN
A STRONGER UPSTREAM JET DIVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AS
THIS JET DIVES AND NORTHERN LATITUDE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK...A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND BRING A COOLING TREND TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ON MONDAY WILL SHEAR OUT TO OUR NORTH BUT SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BE ENTRAINED IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE SUB TROPICAL JET NOSES NORTHWARD. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE WELL ALOFT SO DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THIS WILL BE CHANGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE WESTERN TROF AXIS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE
WILL BE AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY MOVING IN WITH THE MOISTURE BUT
EXPECT MINIMAL PCPN OUTPUT FROM ISOLATED STORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MORE A WIND THREAT DUE TO INVERTED V PROFILES. PWATS WILL PUSH UP
TOWARD A HALF OF AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BE USED MORE
EFFICIENTLY BE MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT AHEAD AS THE TROF PUSHED ACROSS
OUR CWA. HOWEVER MODELS THIS FAR OUT AT STILL AT ODDS ON WHETHER
THIS ENERGY WILL BE SPLITTING (GFS) OR DIGGING (EURO) SOUTH OF OUR
AREA SO CONFIDENCE IN SOME DETAILS QUITE LOW...SO POPS REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO OR BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS TROF PASSAGE...AND WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD THE WARM UP IS NOT CLEAR ATTM
AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING AND DEVELOP
AGAIN ON BEGINNING AOA 16Z SATURDAY CAUSING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
THE STRONGEST TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF RIDGES AND
PEAKS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
THE UPPER PATTERN IS FAIRLY STAGNANT AT THE MOMENT WITH LOW
ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DIRECTED AT EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND HIGH HAINES INDEX VALUES. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
BE WEAKENING HOWEVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE PICKING UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROF BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT THEN
RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH RED
FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ZONES 291 AND 207
THROUGH THIS TIME. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THESE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THE MOMENT ADDITIONAL FIRE WATCHES...BUT THIS CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED. AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN TOWARD THE MID WEEK
PERIOD AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO MORE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INCLUDING DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-291.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ207-291.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...15
000
FXUS65 KBOU 242049
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
249 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S-
30S F OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE TEENS F
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS THEY
ARE IN THE 40S-50S F...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS
AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CIN OVER THE PLAINS RIGHT
NOW. THERE IS A DENVER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM AROUND MORRISON IN
JEFFERSON COUNTY TO CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY. MODELS KEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE BENIGN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE NORMAL DRAINAGE
TONIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS HANG ON TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT GOOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO STAY
ABOVE 50S F OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...OVER 2000 J/KG THIS EVENING. FOR POPS THIS
EVENING...WILL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP 10-30%S OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. THE SHEAR IS GOOD AND THE
MOISTURE PLENTIFUL. NO POPS ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY...THE DECENT
CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER AGAIN. THE SHEAR IS NOT
AS GOOD TO NO SEVERE MENTIONED THERE BUT WILL GO WITH 10-20%S FOR
LATER AFTERNOON. SATURDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 0-1.5 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S CURRENT HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STAYS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRAINED IN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO EXPECTING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE 60S AND 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS DAY AFTER DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TAKING A TOLL ON THE FUELS AROUND THE STATE...HOWEVER CURRENTLY
THE FUELS ARE LISTED AS STILL BEING GREEN ENOUGH AFTER OUR LATE
SEASON MOISTURE. WILL KEEP EVALUATING THE FUELS EACH DAY TO
DETERMINE ANY NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. RIGHT NOW WINDS
LOOK TO BE RIGHT AT OR BELOW CRITERIA. A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CO/KS/NE STATE BORDERS KEEPING MOST OF
THE AREA DRY AND LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. CAPE
VALUES EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER WILL VARY BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A
VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SO ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MAINLY HAVE LITTLE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO MID-WEEK...THE PAC-NW TROUGH WILL
GET AN EXTRA SHOT OF ENERGY AND PUSH A TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
STATE. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE GETTING LESS AS THE ECMWF USED TO
DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH ITS DOING LESS NOW. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE...SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES OVER
THIS PERIOD. FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS TREND...ONLY MADE MINOR
EDITS.
&&
.AVIATION...PESKY WIND FIELDS TO DEAL WITH AS A DENVER CYCLONE IS
IN AND NEAR KDEN. NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY
WITH MOISTURE LACKING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD GET UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH...BUT FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 10 PM MDT FOR LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RJK
000
FXUS65 KGJT 241728
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1128 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
TODAY...FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE NUMBER ONE CONCERN TODAY.
STRONG SW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE PAC NW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HUMIDITIES LOWERING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON THURSDAY BECAUSE NO
JET SPEED MAX OR VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE THE
GRADIENT. STILL THE WINDS SHOULD EASILY HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA AS
ALONG WITH THE LOW RH IN THOSE ZONES HAVING THE NEEDED DRY FUELS.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE TYPICALLY DOWNSLOPE. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE JUST A SLIGHT WARMING.
SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DRY...WARM AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BEYOND. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL RELOAD
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A DEEP MIXED LAYER BY THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WOUND UP LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP A LITTLE ON
SUNDAY. BUT THAT WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GREAT PLAINS.
THEREFORE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE AREA...WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 7-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AND LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY...WARMER THAN
NORMAL AND BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH STEADY SW
FLOW CONTINUING. A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
INLAND TUE...CAUSING THE FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE.
THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BODILY OVER THE AREA WED AND THU
WITH STRONGER WINDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON 18Z-03Z AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY CAUSING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE. THE STRONGEST
TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF RIDGES AND PEAKS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
OCCASIONAL SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SOUTH...AND ALONG THE NORTH SIDES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WILL AGAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MIXED LAYER DEEPENS. THE FLOW WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS ON THURSDAY...BUT GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH WILL BE
COMMONPLACE AREA-WIDE. ALSO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE
FUELS ARE DRY. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CO ZONES 207 AND 291.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SO A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ZONES 291 AND 207. BY SUNDAY THE
CRITICAL WIND THRESHOLD OF 25 MPH MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD SO
FORECAST CERTAINTY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT. OVERALL THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL RH...AND GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE INTO
MEMORIAL DAY.
NEXT WEEK THE WEST COAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-291.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ207-291.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC/EH
LONG TERM...CC/EH
AVIATION...JOE
FIRE WEATHER...CC/EH
000
FXUS65 KPUB 241723
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT OF SVR WX FOR
THE ERN CO PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 50S E OF THE MTS...AND WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE
WINDS THIS MORN...AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVR SE CO
AND THE PANHANDLES...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO RETREAT
TODAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE
BY MID MORNING...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE A RATHER MODEST
CAP THAT IS PRESENT TODAY. COULD BE A RELATIVELY EARLY INITIATION
E OF I-25...BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH
BULK SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX.
MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH FAVORABLE WBZ HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL SEE SOME CLEARING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS TS
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD NR THE KS BORDER. SHOULD SEE MOST
OF THE AREA CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS THE DRYLINE
RETREATS INTO KS.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY. LOW CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...HANGING ON LONGEST OVR NRN EL PASO.
H7 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND
HAVE STAYED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH BETTER RH EXPECTED
TODAY AND LACK OF STRONG WRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH
VALUES AND STRONGER WINDS SHIFTING OVER ERN ZONES...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT WIDESPREAD TODAY SO HAVE CANCELED
THE BULK OF THE FIRE WX WATCH. WILL CONVERT FREMONT COUNTY...ZONES
222...TO A WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THAT AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT OF SEEING SOLID RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
ALSO WILL SEE CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT FUEL STATUS DOES NOT SUPPORT
A RED FLAG WARNING. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER TODAY AND PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT FIRES SHOULD BE TAKEN
REGARDLESS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A
RESULT...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY. DRY
LINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST. MODELS KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOSTLY IN BACA COUNTY. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT. CURRENT DAY 2 OUTLOOK DOES NOT
HAVE THIS REGION OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WEST OF THE DRY
LINE...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.
CURRENTLY...ONLY THE ZONES IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ARE CRITICAL
ALONG WITH ZONE 233. WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...HAVE CONCERNS THAT
WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND DID NOT
INCLUDE ZONE 233 IN THE WATCH.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST. ON SUNDAY...DRY
LINE WILL BE NEAR BACA COUNTY...BUT THE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE WILL BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...DRY LINE WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE. GRIDS HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS NEAR BACA
COUNTY ON BOTH DAYS. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW OVER THE
REGION...AND HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAIN CONCERN FOR REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IS THE WIND SPEEDS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY...AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL EC AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE
TROUGH WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF COLORADO. BUT...BELIEVE THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WOULD BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER
WEST ONTO THE PLAINS. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE 3 MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT
KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF I25. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-225>227.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOORE
000
FXUS65 KBOU 241639
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1039 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...CURRENT RADAR PICTURES ARE SHOWING AN EAST TO WEST
BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREATER DENVER AREA. BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S F. OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PLAINS...DECENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE CONTINUING WITH 50S F
DEW POINTS IN PLACE. THE SHEAR STILL LOOKS DECENT SO WILL KEEP
THINGS AS IS CONCERNING SEVERE THREAT.
.AVIATION...BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS DIA RIGHT NOW WITH 10-15 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLIES BEHIND IT. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS OUT OF THE TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A RIDGE
RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A LOW SPINS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL USHER IN WARMER AND DRIER
AIR TO PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WYOMING
AND COLORADO CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND CREATE A
DRY LINE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. EAST OF THE DRY LINE DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES WILL CREATE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF UP TO 2500 J/KG. SUPER
CELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
EAST OF THE DRY LINE...WHICH LOOKS TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
STERLING TO AKRON TO BURLINGTON.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY. HIGHS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL REACH THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE BACK WEST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS. COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. BECAUSE OF THE WARM AIRMASS AND
MOISTURE...LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH READINGS AROUND 50 DEGREES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
LONG TERM...STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PLACES COLORADO
IN A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS ON THE PLAINS AND 60S-70S IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. MIN RH VALUES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 10
PERCENT ON THE PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 25 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. THAT
SAID...CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DEEMED TOO GREEN/MOIST TO CARRY FIRE
EASILY. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FUELS SITUATION SHOULD
WINDS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE BECOME STRONGER THAN PREDICTED. ONLY
OTHER GLITCH IN DRY AND VERY WARM FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HAS TO DO
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCES ALONG A DRY LINE MEANDERING
ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/BOUYANCY TO GENERATE
ISOLATED T-STORMS IN PHILLIPS AND/OR SEDGWICK COUNTIES BY EVENING.
A BRIEF MODERATE SHOWER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE ALL THAT WE
SEE FROM THEM THOUGH. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY.
ON SUNDAY...DAY STARTS OUT DRY EVERYWHERE AND QUITE MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES THE NIGHT BEFORE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS
TO A WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...THE GFS...
CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE NAM MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS TURNING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND A WEAK SFC BASED CYCLONE IN
THE VICINITY OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. WHILE ALL THIS IS GOING
ON...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA. NAM IS FCSTG SFC BASED CAPES IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AROUND 00Z/MONDAY ACROSS MORGAN...LOGAN...
WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. CALCULATED CAPE VALUES
EVEN GREATER OFF THE GFS. WHILE THE ECMWF CAPES ARE LOWER THAN
EITHER OF THESE MODELS. HOWEVER ALL 3 MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CIN
OUT THERE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. A SFC BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE AREA
COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THE CAP BREAK.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-
STORMS ROUGHLY EAST OF LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO GREELEY TO LIMON. SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE ISOLATED STORMS.
MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO FLUSH EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
RESUMPTION OF DRIER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS GREATER CAPES REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES INDICATE A NARROW
STRIP OF 2000-3000 J/KG CAPES ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER
AROUND 00Z/TUESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING T-STORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HEAT DRIVEN STORMS OVER
THE FRONT RANGE.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...PLACING
COLORADO UNDER STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LATE ON TUESDAY...THE
CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE MOIST OUTFLOW FROM A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW NO
SUCH OUTFLOW AS THEY CONTINUE THE WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON T-
STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND JUST KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS INDICATES AN OPEN LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING FOR COLORADO...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER ARIZONA.
THIS CREATES A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS THE
TROUGH ALREADY PAST THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE FCST AREA. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOT ANY
SMALLER ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING T-STORMS FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE CWFA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND DRY THINGS OUT ON THURSDAY...ASSUMING THE TROUGH
PASSES BY THEN. AFTER TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE PASSING TROUGH.
AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND
SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS VERY NEAR KDEN AND
KAPA...LESS THAN 5 MILES. THEY COULD MOVE OVER ONE OR BOTH OF THE
AIRPORTS FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE 12Z. DRIER WILL IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS A DENVER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS. BY 00Z...APPEARS WINDS WILL END UP NORTHWEST AS THE
CYCLONE SHIFTS EAST OF THE DENVER AREA.
HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS FOR THE BURN AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
000
FXUS65 KPUB 241026
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT OF SVR WX FOR
THE ERN CO PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 50S E OF THE MTS...AND WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE
WINDS THIS MORN...AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVR SE CO
AND THE PANHANDLES...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO RETREAT
TODAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE
BY MID MORNING...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE A RATHER MODEST
CAP THAT IS PRESENT TODAY. COULD BE A RELATIVELY EARLY INITIATION
E OF I-25...BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH
BULK SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX.
MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH FAVORABLE WBZ HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL SEE SOME CLEARING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS TS
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD NR THE KS BORDER. SHOULD SEE MOST
OF THE AREA CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS THE DRYLINE
RETREATS INTO KS.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY. LOW CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...HANGING ON LONGEST OVR NRN EL PASO.
H7 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND
HAVE STAYED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH BETTER RH EXPECTED
TODAY AND LACK OF STRONG WRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH
VALUES AND STRONGER WINDS SHIFTING OVER ERN ZONES...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT WIDESPREAD TODAY SO HAVE CANCELED
THE BULK OF THE FIRE WX WATCH. WILL CONVERT FREMONT COUNTY...ZONES
222...TO A WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THAT AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT OF SEEING SOLID RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
ALSO WILL SEE CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT FUEL STATUS DOES NOT SUPPORT
A RED FLAG WARNING. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER TODAY AND PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT FIRES SHOULD BE TAKEN
REGARDLESS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A
RESULT...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY. DRY
LINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST. MODELS KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOSTLY IN BACA COUNTY. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT. CURRENT DAY 2 OUTLOOK DOES NOT
HAVE THIS REGION OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WEST OF THE DRY
LINE...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.
CURRENTLY...ONLY THE ZONES IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ARE CRITICAL
ALONG WITH ZONE 233. WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...HAVE CONCERNS THAT
WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND DID NOT
INCLUDE ZONE 233 IN THE WATCH.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST. ON SUNDAY...DRY
LINE WILL BE NEAR BACA COUNTY...BUT THE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE WILL BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...DRY LINE WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE. GRIDS HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS NEAR BACA
COUNTY ON BOTH DAYS. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW OVER THE
REGION...AND HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAIN CONCERN FOR REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IS THE WIND SPEEDS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY...AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL EC AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE
TROUGH WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF COLORADO. BUT...BELIEVE THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WOULD BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER
WEST ONTO THE PLAINS. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
LOW CIGS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING FOR KCOS AND KPUB...WITH
IFR-LIFR FOR THE FORMER AND MVFR FOR THE LATTER. SHOULD SEE THESE
CIGS DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z...WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING A BIT LONGER OVR
NRN EL PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD. OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
TS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF I-25. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT
THE TERMINALS...BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS SHOULD STAY WELL E OF I-25...GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM
KLIC TO KLHX TO KTAD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TONIGHT
ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-225>227.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ222.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE
000
FXUS65 KGJT 241026
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
426 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
TODAY...FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE NUMBER ONE CONCERN TODAY.
STRONG SW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACNW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HUMIDITIES LOWERING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON THURSDAY BECAUSE NO
JET SPEED MAX OR VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE THE
GRADIENT. STILL THE WINDS SHOULD EASILY HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA AS
ALONG WITH THE LOW RH IN THOSE ZONES HAVING THE NEEDED DRY FUELS.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE TYPICALLY DOWNSLOPE. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE JUST A SLIGHT WARMING.
SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DRY...WARM AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BEYOND. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL RELOAD
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A DEEP MIXED LAYER BY THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WOUND UP LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP A LITTLE ON
SUNDAY. BUT THAT WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GREAT PLAINS.
THEREFORE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE AREA...WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 7-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AND LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY...WARMER THAN
NORMAL AND BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH STEADY SW
FLOW CONTINUING. A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
INLAND TUE...CAUSING THE FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE.
THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING BODILY OVER THE AREA WED AND THU
WITH STRONGER WINDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CAUSING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
OCCASIONAL SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SOUTH...AND ALONG THE NORTH SIDES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WILL AGAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MIXED LAYER DEEPENS. THE FLOW WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS ON THURSDAY...BUT GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH WILL BE
COMMONPLACE AREA-WIDE. ALSO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE
FUELS ARE DRY. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CO ZONES 207 AND 291.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SO A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ZONES 291 AND 207. BY SUNDAY THE
CRITICAL WIND THRESHOLD OF 25 MPH MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD SO
FORECAST CERTAINTY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT. OVERALL THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL RH...AND GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE INTO
MEMORIAL DAY.
NEXT WEEK THE WEST COAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-291.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ207-291.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC/EH
LONG TERM...CC/EH
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC/EH
000
FXUS65 KBOU 240941
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
341 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A RIDGE
RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A LOW SPINS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL USHER IN WARMER AND DRIER
AIR TO PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WYOMING
AND COLORADO CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND CREATE A
DRY LINE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. EAST OF THE DRY LINE DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES WILL CREATE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF UP TO 2500 J/KG. SUPER
CELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
EAST OF THE DRY LINE...WHICH LOOKS TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
STERLING TO AKRON TO BURLINGTON.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY. HIGHS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL REACH THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE BACK WEST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS. COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. BECAUSE OF THE WARM AIRMASS AND
MOISTURE...LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH READINGS AROUND 50 DEGREES
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PLACES COLORADO
IN A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS ON THE PLAINS AND 60S-70S IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. MIN RH VALUES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 10
PERCENT ON THE PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 25 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. THAT
SAID...CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DEEMED TOO GREEN/MOIST TO CARRY FIRE
EASILY. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FUELS SITUATION SHOULD
WINDS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE BECOME STRONGER THAN PREDICTED. ONLY
OTHER GLITCH IN DRY AND VERY WARM FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HAS TO DO
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCES ALONG A DRY LINE MEANDERING
ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/BOUYANCY TO GENERATE
ISOLATED T-STORMS IN PHILLIPS AND/OR SEDGWICK COUNTIES BY EVENING.
A BRIEF MODERATE SHOWER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE ALL THAT WE
SEE FROM THEM THOUGH. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY.
ON SUNDAY...DAY STARTS OUT DRY EVERYWHERE AND QUITE MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES THE NIGHT BEFORE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS
TO A WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...THE GFS...
CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE NAM MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS TURNING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND A WEAK SFC BASED CYCLONE IN
THE VICINITY OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. WHILE ALL THIS IS GOING
ON...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA. NAM IS FCSTG SFC BASED CAPES IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AROUND 00Z/MONDAY ACROSS MORGAN...LOGAN...
WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. CALCULATED CAPE VALUES
EVEN GREATER OFF THE GFS. WHILE THE ECMWF CAPES ARE LOWER THAN
EITHER OF THESE MODELS. HOWEVER ALL 3 MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CIN
OUT THERE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. A SFC BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE AREA
COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THE CAP BREAK.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-
STORMS ROUGHLY EAST OF LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO GREELEY TO LIMON. SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE ISOLATED STORMS.
MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO FLUSH EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
RESUMPTION OF DRIER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS GREATER CAPES REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES INDICATE A NARROW
STRIP OF 2000-3000 J/KG CAPES ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER
AROUND 00Z/TUESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING T-STORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HEAT DRIVEN STORMS OVER
THE FRONT RANGE.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...PLACING
COLORADO UNDER STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LATE ON TUESDAY...THE
CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE MOIST OUTFLOW FROM A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW NO
SUCH OUTFLOW AS THEY CONTINUE THE WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON T-
STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND JUST KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS INDICATES AN OPEN LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING FOR COLORADO...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER ARIZONA.
THIS CREATES A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS THE
TROUGH ALREADY PAST THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE FCST AREA. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOT ANY
SMALLER ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING T-STORMS FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE CWFA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND DRY THINGS OUT ON THURSDAY...ASSUMING THE TROUGH
PASSES BY THEN. AFTER TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE PASSING TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND
SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS VERY NEAR KDEN AND
KAPA...LESS THAN 5 MILES. THEY COULD MOVE OVER ONE OR BOTH OF THE
AIRPORTS FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE 12Z. DRIER WILL IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS A DENVER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS. BY 00Z...APPEARS WINDS WILL END UP NORTHWEST AS THE
CYCLONE SHIFTS EAST OF THE DENVER AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS FOR THE BURN AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
000
FXUS65 KPUB 240512
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND ADJUSTED POPS
BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTS OF THE PLAINS NEXT 24 HOURS...
COOL...STABLE AIRMASS HAS COVERED THE PLAINS MOST OF TODAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MEANWHILE...WINDY AND WARM TO THE
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY...SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS
AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AREAS...WITH MAYBE EVEN A CELL TRYING TO FORM
ON THE SOUTHWEST BACA COUNTY BORDER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE AND INCREASE A BIT THIS EVENING. THEN...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...STILL SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MOSTLY LIGHT STUFF...BUT COULD EVEN BE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION WHICH
COULD DROP SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ON A LOCAL BASIS. CONTINUED
MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 3 PM MDT. DRYLINE WILL
BE OUT THERE SOMEWHERE...PROBABLY RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. SHEAR IS LOW INITIALLY
BUT EVENTUALLY CREEPS UP TO AROUND 40 OR 45 KNOTS ALONG THE KANSAS
BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SO...COULD BE A FEW SEVERE CELLS TO
DEAL WITH. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH CAPE...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THAT A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EITHER.
OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS...HUMIDITIES AND FUELS WILL ALL BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ALL OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. OUTDOOR
BURNING OR ANY OTHER ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START A FIRE SHOULD BE
SUSPENDED. LW
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST STRONG AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 9PM FRIDAY EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE
THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. CURRENT SOLUTIONS HAVE THE DRYLINE SET
UP FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF KIOWA COUNTY...SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD. HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST
EAST OF THIS LINE. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THEY COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE ANY SHIFT
IN THE DRYLINE COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...OR NONE AT ALL. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE
EXPECT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON FUEL
STATUS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED OVER THIS AREA ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE LOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH BROAD TROUGHING
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND FORCE THE RIDGE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE DRYLINE WELL INTO KANSAS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY HELPING TO MITIGATE ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR ANY OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING BACKYARD GRILLING ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY INTO COLORADO.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH
GENERALLY 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF KPUB. ALSO...OVERNIGHT AREAS OF
AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS ARE STILL PROJECTED TO REDEVELOP IMPACTING BOTH
THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 15Z FRIDAY. TAF SITE KALS
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ221-222-225>227.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KGJT 240317
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
917 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
WINDS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS EVENING SO HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE MIX OUT AT TIMES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK
SFC INVERSION IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE
RED FLAG WARNINGS ALLOWING ZONES 290 AND 292 TO EXPIRE...DETAILS
ON THE FIRE WEATHER ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
AMPLIFIED TROF-RIDGE-TROF PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN
2/3 OF NOAM WITH WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
AND MEXICO. MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE
FRONT RANGE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO BACK
TO THE PACIFIC. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE LARGE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM INCREASED
WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT. STRONG HEATING...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING BRING THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MANY
AREAS ARE SEEING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WITH 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.
A SUBTLE WAVE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MAINLY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF THIS
TERRAIN BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT A DROP OFF OF THE WINDS
WITH SUNSET AND THE DRY AIR WILL HELP DEVELOP SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS REMAINING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT WITH LEE DOWN-SLOPING WINDS AND WINDWARD RIDGE-TOP
WINDS KEEPING THINGS MIXED AT TIMES. AS A RESULT LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN IN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA
WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY AND RH RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL. SFC LOW
PRESSURE BE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE JET ROUNDS THE TROF TO
THE WEST. THIS SLACKENS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE AND
WEAKENING DOWN VALLEY WINDS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MINIMUMS WILL
RESULT.
AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST ABSORBS THE JET AND VORT LOBE IT
WILL BE RE-ORIENTING EAST TO WEST...WITH A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL GRADIENT ALOFT. THIS SHOULD NEGATE THE CHANCES OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS BUT STRONG HEATING AND AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS WINDS GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. H7 TEMPS
WILL TAKE A SLIGHT DIP TOMORROW AND HIGHS MAY BE A ONE OR TWO
DEGREES COOLER IN PLACES BUT STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AGAIN EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY TAKE A DOWN TURN
NEAR AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS WARM REGIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE ELONGATED TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY...WARM CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH GUSTY SW WINDS INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY 7-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER
TO NEAR NORMAL BY MEMORIAL DAY BUT THIS SEEMS OVERLY FAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH PROGRESSION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE FAVORED EC IS STILL SLOWER. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS START AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED IS
ORIENTED FROM OREGON INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 0.6 INCHES. THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMED FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ACCEPTED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
BUT WILL RAISE THEM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW IF MODEL TIMING IS
CONSISTENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT ALL SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TONIGHT AND WILL MIX BACK
INTO THE VALLEYS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH
AT TIMES WITH AREAS OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATE...RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR ZONES 290 AND 292 HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED AS WINDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AND LATEST FUEL STATUS
INDICATES CONDITIONS HAVE MOVE OUT OF CRITICAL LEVELS AS GREEN UP
CONTINUES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG SW GRADIENT WINDS WERE REALIZED TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS WILL BE WEAK
AND WILL BREAK AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-SLOPE THERMAL BELT
AND ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS
FOR COLORADO FIRE ZONES 291 AND 207 HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ZONES 291
AND 207. BY SUNDAY THE CRITICAL WIND THRESHOLD OF 25 MPH MAY NOT
BE MET SO FORECAST CERTAINTY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT. OVERALL THOUGH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL RH...AND GUSTY SW WINDS
CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
NEXT WEEK THE WEST COAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ207-291.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ207-291.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/JDC
000
FXUS65 KPUB 240252
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
852 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND ADJUSTED POPS
BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTS OF THE PLAINS NEXT 24 HOURS...
COOL...STABLE AIRMASS HAS COVERED THE PLAINS MOST OF TODAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MEANWHILE...WINDY AND WARM TO THE
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY...SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS
AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AREAS...WITH MAYBE EVEN A CELL TRYING TO FORM
ON THE SOUTHWEST BACA COUNTY BORDER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE AND INCREASE A BIT THIS EVENING. THEN...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...STILL SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MOSTLY LIGHT STUFF...BUT COULD EVEN BE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION WHICH
COULD DROP SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ON A LOCAL BASIS. CONTINUED
MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 3 PM MDT. DRYLINE WILL
BE OUT THERE SOMEWHERE...PROBABLY RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. SHEAR IS LOW INITIALLY
BUT EVENTUALLY CREEPS UP TO AROUND 40 OR 45 KNOTS ALONG THE KANSAS
BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SO...COULD BE A FEW SEVERE CELLS TO
DEAL WITH. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH CAPE...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THAT A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EITHER.
OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS...HUMIDITIES AND FUELS WILL ALL BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ALL OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. OUTDOOR
BURNING OR ANY OTHER ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START A FIRE SHOULD BE
SUSPENDED. LW
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST STRONG AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 9PM FRIDAY EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE
THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. CURRENT SOLUTIONS HAVE THE DRYLINE SET
UP FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF KIOWA COUNTY...SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD. HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST
EAST OF THIS LINE. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THEY COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE ANY SHIFT
IN THE DRYLINE COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...OR NONE AT ALL. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE
EXPECT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON FUEL
STATUS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED OVER THIS AREA ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE LOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH BROAD TROUGHING
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND FORCE THE RIDGE INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE DRYLINE WELL INTO KANSAS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY HELPING TO MITIGATE ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR ANY OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES...INCLUDING BACKYARD GRILLING ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY INTO COLORADO.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH
GENERALLY 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS TODAY...BUT HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP FOR
THE MOST PART. A FEW EVENING -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING. THEN...OVERNIGHT AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR
STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AND COVER BOTH THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS
UNTIL MID-MORNING FRIDAY. AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ221-222-225>227.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW
000
FXUS65 KBOU 240155
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
755 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...AIRMASS WAS TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE TSTMS SO WILL
REMOVE THEM FOR THIS EVENING. WILL SEE SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS.
.AVIATION...GUSTY SE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY 03Z AND BECOME MORE
SLY BY 06Z AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH 12Z. ANY STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND NOT AFFECT THE AIRPORT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF DENVER. THIS FLOW PATTERN RESULTED IN A DENVER CYCLONE THIS
MORNING WITH A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM AROUND BJC AND
STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO JUST WEST OF GXY. DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 77 SO IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE
FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH EVENTUAL READINGS
IN THE LOWER 70S. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INVERSION BETWEEN 750-700MB. STILL GIVEN THE LIFT WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND WEAK WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO...MAY BE ABLE TO
SPARK A STORM OR TWO OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE STILL LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO BUT IF STORMS DO SPARK...THEN THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WEAK TORNADOES AROUND THE BOUNDARY.
FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AIRMASS IS TOO CAPPED FOR STORMS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT AND MOISTURE DEPTH MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENT ZONES ALREADY HAVE THIS COVERED.
FOR FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WITH DRY LINE SETTING UP CLOSE TO THE COLORADO AND
KANSAS BORDER. SPC ALREADY HAS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TARGETED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH CAPES OVER 2000J/KG AND STRONG DIRECTION SHEAR
PROFILE. STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL STABILITY SO POPS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS CLOSE TO THE NE AND KS
BORDERS. STORM DIRECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST THOUGH AND WILL
QUICKLY DEPART. A FEW AREAS OF FOG MAY POP UP ALONG THE NORTHERN
STATE BORDER OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE STATE WILL STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 30S TO 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN SOME DRIER
AIR WHICH WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITIES...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 10
PERCENT...WITH SOME WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DEEMED UNABLE TO CARRY
FIRE EASILY...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FUELS
SITUATION FOR SATURDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WHETHER TO KEEP IT
AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS SHOWS...OR DIG IT SOUTH AND CUT IT OFF
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS. WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS PERIOD
TO SHOW A TREND.
AVIATION...BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AT APA/BJC WHILE BJC WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH STRONG BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM BJC TO GXY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT LOW ENOUGH
THAT WON`T BE MENTIONED IN CURRENT TAF. IF THINGS DO DEVELOP THEN
WILL TRY AND PINPOINT TS IN RESPECTIVE TAF. AS LIKE LAST
NIGHT...STRATUS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS BUT AGAIN WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO APA/DEN.
HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS. ISOLATED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
MOVING AT 15-20KT SO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK
000
FXUS65 KGJT 232146
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
346 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
AMPLIFIED TROF-RIDGE-TROF PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN
2/3 OF NOAM WITH WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
AND MEXICO. MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE
FRONT RANGE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO BACK
TO THE PACIFIC. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE LARGE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM INCREASED
WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT. STRONG HEATING...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
HELPING BRING THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MANY
AREAS ARE SEEING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WITH 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.
A SUBTLE WAVE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MAINLY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF THIS
TEARRAIN BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT A DROP OFF OF THE WINDS
WITH SUNSET AND THE DRY AIR WILL HELP DEVELOP SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS REMAINING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT WITH LEE DOWN-SLOPING WINDS AND WINDWARD RIDGE-TOP
WINDS KEEPING THINGS MIXED AT TIMES. AS A RESULT LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN IN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA
WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY AND RH RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL. SFC LOW
PRESSURE BE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE JET ROUNDS THE TROF TO
THE WEST. THIS SLACKENS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE AND
WEAKENING DOWN VALLEY WINDS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MINIMUMS WILL
RESULT.
AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST ABSORBS THE JET AND VORT LOBE IT
WILL BE RE-ORIENTING EAST TO WEST...WITH A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL GRADIENT ALOFT. THIS SHOULD NEGATE THE CHANCES OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS BUT STRONG HEATING AND AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS WINDS GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. H7 TEMPS
WILL TAKE A SLIGHT DIP TOMORROW AND HIGHS MAY BE A ONE OR TWO
DEGREES COOLER IN PLACES BUT STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AGAIN EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY TAKE A DOWN TURN
NEAR AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS WARM REGIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE ELONGATED TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY...WARM CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH GUSTY SW WINDS INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY 7-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER
TO NEAR NORMAL BY MEMORIAL DAY BUT THIS SEEMS OVERLY FAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH PROGRESSION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE FAVORED EC IS STILL SLOWER. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS START AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED IS
ORIENTED FROM OREGON INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 0.6 INCHES. THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMED FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ACCEPTED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
BUT WILL RAISE THEM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW IF MODEL TIMING IS
CONSISTENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WITH ONLY HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT AREA FORECAST TERMINALS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS AS GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY
PERSIST ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE COULD BE AN ISSUE.
WIND GUSTS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD STILL
BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER
VALLEY REGIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
STRONG SW GRADIENT WINDS WERE REALIZED TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS WILL BE WEAK AND WILL BREAK AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-SLOPE THERMAL BELT AND ALONG THE
NORTH-FACING SLOPES. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR COLORADO
FIRE ZONES 291 AND 207 HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ZONES 291 AND 207.
BY SUNDAY THE CRITICAL WIND THRESHOLD OF 25 MPH MAY NOT BE MET SO
FORECAST CERTAINTY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT. OVERALL THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL RH...AND GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE INTO
MEMORIAL DAY.
NEXT WEEK THE WEST COAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ290-292.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ207-291.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ207-291.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JOE
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