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000
FXUS65 KPUB 251027
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO START AFFECTING THE REGION STARTING LATER
TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AS
A LEAD SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. LOCALLY...SKIES PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR
OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S PLAINS AND 20S TO 40S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 24H. BY 00Z (6 PM THIS
EVENING)....TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE SE CO PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY THIS MORNING
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING
AND BECOME LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LEAD WAVE MOVES EAST. THIS
SCTD PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BURN SCARS
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND THESE AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...

AS WAVE INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST CO.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. SPC HAS
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A SVR
TSRA WATCH THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT KNOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE SVR
THREAT WILL EXIST. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ON THE FAR EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDINESS.

OVER THE MTNS...PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE A BIT AS WEAK
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES IN IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

I EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CONTDVD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET. THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE MOST FAVORED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DROP AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STORM PATH IS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL HAZARDS
ACROSS THE AREA...FROM HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PLAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW NEAR TRINIDAD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BOUNDARY SETTING
UP FROM NEAR PUEBLO...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SHEAR
AND DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...STORMS WILL ROTATE...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS SMALL...BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
BE SNOW LEVELS. WHERE ITS COLD ENOUGH...ITS GOING TO SNOW. THIS
STORM SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY COLD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 7-8 KFT. ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL
FALL. THE STORM TRACK AND FLOW AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PIKES PEAK. THIS
SNOW WILL BE WET AND HEAVY...AND TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE STORM PATH IS A
BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THERE...HOWEVER A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAN JUAN RANGE MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION AN THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ELEVATED AVALANCHE
THREAT. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STORM TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHICH PROVIDES THE FOCUS
FOR DEEP AND STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE
ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES...IF NOT MORE...IS
LIKELY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL STILL SEE RAIN WITH
AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF RUNOFF FLOODING AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
PREPARE FOR THE SNOWFALL IF YOU LIVE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND BE READY FOR WET TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDING INTO COLORADO. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. STEERING
FLOWS WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OFF THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A
COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT (06Z/26TH) AT ALL 3
TAF SITES (KCOS...KALS AND KPUB). WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ANY OF THE THREE SITES.

LATER TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES ON THE PLAINS AND WE MAY SEE
LOW CIGS/FOG AT KPUB AND KCOS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLD SHRA WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...A MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY PRECIP IS LIKELY WITH LOW CIGS.
STILL NEEDS TO BE DETERMINED IF IT WILL BE SNOW AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY) BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ072>075-079-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251027
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO START AFFECTING THE REGION STARTING LATER
TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AS
A LEAD SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. LOCALLY...SKIES PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR
OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S PLAINS AND 20S TO 40S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND AMPLIFY INTO
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 24H. BY 00Z (6 PM THIS
EVENING)....TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE SE CO PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY THIS MORNING
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING
AND BECOME LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LEAD WAVE MOVES EAST. THIS
SCTD PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BURN SCARS
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND THESE AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...

AS WAVE INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST CO.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. SPC HAS
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A SVR
TSRA WATCH THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT KNOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE SVR
THREAT WILL EXIST. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ON THE FAR EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDINESS.

OVER THE MTNS...PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE A BIT AS WEAK
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES IN IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

I EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CONTDVD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET. THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE MOST FAVORED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DROP AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STORM PATH IS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL HAZARDS
ACROSS THE AREA...FROM HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PLAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW NEAR TRINIDAD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BOUNDARY SETTING
UP FROM NEAR PUEBLO...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SHEAR
AND DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...STORMS WILL ROTATE...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS SMALL...BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
BE SNOW LEVELS. WHERE ITS COLD ENOUGH...ITS GOING TO SNOW. THIS
STORM SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY COLD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 7-8 KFT. ABOVE THIS LEVEL...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL
FALL. THE STORM TRACK AND FLOW AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH PIKES PEAK. THIS
SNOW WILL BE WET AND HEAVY...AND TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE STORM PATH IS A
BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THERE...HOWEVER A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAN JUAN RANGE MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION AN THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ELEVATED AVALANCHE
THREAT. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STORM TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHICH PROVIDES THE FOCUS
FOR DEEP AND STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE
ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES...IF NOT MORE...IS
LIKELY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL STILL SEE RAIN WITH
AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF RUNOFF FLOODING AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
PREPARE FOR THE SNOWFALL IF YOU LIVE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND BE READY FOR WET TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDING INTO COLORADO. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. STEERING
FLOWS WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OFF THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A
COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT (06Z/26TH) AT ALL 3
TAF SITES (KCOS...KALS AND KPUB). WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ANY OF THE THREE SITES.

LATER TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES ON THE PLAINS AND WE MAY SEE
LOW CIGS/FOG AT KPUB AND KCOS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLD SHRA WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...A MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY PRECIP IS LIKELY WITH LOW CIGS.
STILL NEEDS TO BE DETERMINED IF IT WILL BE SNOW AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY) BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ072>075-079-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 251003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOW. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WILL HAVE 30-50 POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DUE TO THIS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRINCIPAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING SEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH WHICH PLACES SERN COLORADO IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS GO ROUND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACRS N-
CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DO NOT LOOK AS COLD EITHER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEARLY SATURATED BNDRY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO HANG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS RATES OF FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL WITH COOLING ALOFT.
00Z/06Z NAM RUNS INDICATE AREAS OF CAPE ON THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO STILL UP AROUND
10000 FT MSL AT THAT TIME...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS AND RIDGES. HAIL OR GRAUPEL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH CBS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WITH THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DVD ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES ON SUN AS MUCH
AS 15-18 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SEWRD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOST THE
UPWARD FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS STORM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 15-25KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING MTN TOP
LEVEL. EAST FACING MTN SLOPES ROUGHLY 8500 FT AND ABOVE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ALL SNOW SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000 FT WITH COLDER AREA FILTERS DOWN FROM
WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACRS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW
TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES BY MON
AFTERNOON COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 INCHES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY
TO HOIST A WATCH OR ADVISORY SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ON
THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE 21-01Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
6000 FEET UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 251003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOW. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WILL HAVE 30-50 POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DUE TO THIS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRINCIPAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING SEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH WHICH PLACES SERN COLORADO IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS GO ROUND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACRS N-
CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DO NOT LOOK AS COLD EITHER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEARLY SATURATED BNDRY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO HANG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS RATES OF FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL WITH COOLING ALOFT.
00Z/06Z NAM RUNS INDICATE AREAS OF CAPE ON THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO STILL UP AROUND
10000 FT MSL AT THAT TIME...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS AND RIDGES. HAIL OR GRAUPEL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH CBS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WITH THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DVD ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES ON SUN AS MUCH
AS 15-18 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SEWRD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOST THE
UPWARD FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS STORM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 15-25KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING MTN TOP
LEVEL. EAST FACING MTN SLOPES ROUGHLY 8500 FT AND ABOVE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ALL SNOW SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000 FT WITH COLDER AREA FILTERS DOWN FROM
WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACRS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW
TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES BY MON
AFTERNOON COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 INCHES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY
TO HOIST A WATCH OR ADVISORY SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ON
THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE 21-01Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
6000 FEET UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 251003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOW. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WILL HAVE 30-50 POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DUE TO THIS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRINCIPAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING SEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH WHICH PLACES SERN COLORADO IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS GO ROUND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACRS N-
CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DO NOT LOOK AS COLD EITHER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEARLY SATURATED BNDRY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO HANG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS RATES OF FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL WITH COOLING ALOFT.
00Z/06Z NAM RUNS INDICATE AREAS OF CAPE ON THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO STILL UP AROUND
10000 FT MSL AT THAT TIME...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS AND RIDGES. HAIL OR GRAUPEL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH CBS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WITH THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DVD ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES ON SUN AS MUCH
AS 15-18 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SEWRD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOST THE
UPWARD FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS STORM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 15-25KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING MTN TOP
LEVEL. EAST FACING MTN SLOPES ROUGHLY 8500 FT AND ABOVE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ALL SNOW SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000 FT WITH COLDER AREA FILTERS DOWN FROM
WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACRS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW
TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES BY MON
AFTERNOON COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 INCHES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY
TO HOIST A WATCH OR ADVISORY SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ON
THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE 21-01Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
6000 FEET UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 251003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOW. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WILL HAVE 30-50 POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DUE TO THIS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRINCIPAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING SEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH WHICH PLACES SERN COLORADO IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS GO ROUND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACRS N-
CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DO NOT LOOK AS COLD EITHER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEARLY SATURATED BNDRY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO HANG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS RATES OF FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL WITH COOLING ALOFT.
00Z/06Z NAM RUNS INDICATE AREAS OF CAPE ON THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO STILL UP AROUND
10000 FT MSL AT THAT TIME...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS AND RIDGES. HAIL OR GRAUPEL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH CBS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WITH THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DVD ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES ON SUN AS MUCH
AS 15-18 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SEWRD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOST THE
UPWARD FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS STORM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 15-25KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING MTN TOP
LEVEL. EAST FACING MTN SLOPES ROUGHLY 8500 FT AND ABOVE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ALL SNOW SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000 FT WITH COLDER AREA FILTERS DOWN FROM
WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACRS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW
TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES BY MON
AFTERNOON COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 INCHES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY
TO HOIST A WATCH OR ADVISORY SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ON
THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE 21-01Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
6000 FEET UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 251003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO BY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOW. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR BY PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LOWER NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WILL HAVE 30-50 POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DUE TO THIS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRINCIPAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM
SWINGING SEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH WHICH PLACES SERN COLORADO IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THIS GO ROUND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACRS N-
CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO DO NOT LOOK AS COLD EITHER. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEARLY SATURATED BNDRY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MTNS
SUNDAY MORNING AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO HANG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS RATES OF FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL WITH COOLING ALOFT.
00Z/06Z NAM RUNS INDICATE AREAS OF CAPE ON THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HRS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO STILL UP AROUND
10000 FT MSL AT THAT TIME...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST MTN PEAKS AND RIDGES. HAIL OR GRAUPEL ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH CBS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WITH THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DVD ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES ON SUN AS MUCH
AS 15-18 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SEWRD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOST THE
UPWARD FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS STORM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 15-25KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING MTN TOP
LEVEL. EAST FACING MTN SLOPES ROUGHLY 8500 FT AND ABOVE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ALL SNOW SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000 FT WITH COLDER AREA FILTERS DOWN FROM
WYOMING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACRS THE NRN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW
TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES BY MON
AFTERNOON COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 INCHES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY
TO HOIST A WATCH OR ADVISORY SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ON
THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RETURN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE 21-01Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
6000 FEET UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY A HALF MILE OR LOWER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 250956
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY WEEKEND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AS STRONG H3 JET CLOSES OFF
SOUTHERN PORTION OF SPLITTING TROUGH. THIS NEW CLOSED LOW
EVENTUALLY TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO NEAR ALBUQUERQUE BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMING UP OFF THE BAJA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL
KICK OFF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KNOCK TEMPS BACK A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY AND HAVE
UNDERCUT THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS BY A FEW DEGREES..ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

BY TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT SLIDES IN AS THE LOW
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. H7 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -2C BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP AS LOW AS 7500
FEET...ALTHOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 10K.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WE CAN WRAP INTO
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOUTHERN TAP OF MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THE
LOW. NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP INTO ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS FOR
THE HIGHER PEAKS...BUT HAVE ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS
ABOVE 10K FEET FOR ZONES 9...12...18 AND 19. WILL LET DAY SHIFT
MAKE FINAL CALL ON WATCH OR WARNING PRODUCTS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR
6 PLUS INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SAN JUANS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE 10K MARK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS
NEW MEXICO WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIQUID PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ON SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS
REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 9...12...18 AND 19...WHICH COMPRISE
THE GRAND MESA...WESTERN SAN JUAN MTS AND THE WEST ELKS ABOVE
10,000 FEET. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BE MOVING
FROM EASTER NM TO THE PAN HANDLES OF TX AND OK WITH PRECIP
CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NW QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THIS FLOW
SHOULD KEEP HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FALLING OVER THE ZONES WILL
WATCHES...WITH THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHING OVER ZONE 9
FIRST...FOLLOWED BY 19...12 THEN 18. 700 MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST OF THE STORM SUN NGT AND MON MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE DECLINE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND TUE MORNING A SHORT WAVE
PROJECTED TO DROP DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE SLOW-MOVING LOW MAY
BRING A BRIEF UPTURN IN PRECIP OVER THE CO MTS AND HIGH PLATEAU.
LINGERING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE AND TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE FROM WEST WED AND PAST EAST OF THE
AREA THU EVENING. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW BEHIND THE
RIDGE SHOULD BRING AN UPTICK IN MOUNTAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE IN A RETURN TO WINTER-LIKE WEATHER WILL
BRING A BROAD AREA OF SHRA/SHSN AND LOW CIGS/VSBY FROM NE UTAH
FIRST AND INTO WRN CO THROUGH 18Z...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REST OF WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-SHSN WITH
SCT THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS BAND...WITH CIGS BLO 050 AND VIS BLO
3SM AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCD AT
TIMES IN SHSN. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 10000FT EXCEPT DOWN TO 8000FT IN
HEAVIEST STORMS.

AFTER A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN PRECIP COVERAGE THIS EVENING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MTS WILL BE OBSCURED AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO
MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION
AIRPORTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ009-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250956
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY WEEKEND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AS STRONG H3 JET CLOSES OFF
SOUTHERN PORTION OF SPLITTING TROUGH. THIS NEW CLOSED LOW
EVENTUALLY TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO NEAR ALBUQUERQUE BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMING UP OFF THE BAJA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL
KICK OFF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KNOCK TEMPS BACK A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY AND HAVE
UNDERCUT THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS BY A FEW DEGREES..ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

BY TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT SLIDES IN AS THE LOW
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. H7 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -2C BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP AS LOW AS 7500
FEET...ALTHOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 10K.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WE CAN WRAP INTO
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOUTHERN TAP OF MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THE
LOW. NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP INTO ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS FOR
THE HIGHER PEAKS...BUT HAVE ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS
ABOVE 10K FEET FOR ZONES 9...12...18 AND 19. WILL LET DAY SHIFT
MAKE FINAL CALL ON WATCH OR WARNING PRODUCTS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR
6 PLUS INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SAN JUANS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE 10K MARK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS
NEW MEXICO WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIQUID PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ON SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS
REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 9...12...18 AND 19...WHICH COMPRISE
THE GRAND MESA...WESTERN SAN JUAN MTS AND THE WEST ELKS ABOVE
10,000 FEET. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BE MOVING
FROM EASTER NM TO THE PAN HANDLES OF TX AND OK WITH PRECIP
CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NW QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THIS FLOW
SHOULD KEEP HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FALLING OVER THE ZONES WILL
WATCHES...WITH THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHING OVER ZONE 9
FIRST...FOLLOWED BY 19...12 THEN 18. 700 MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST OF THE STORM SUN NGT AND MON MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE DECLINE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND TUE MORNING A SHORT WAVE
PROJECTED TO DROP DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE SLOW-MOVING LOW MAY
BRING A BRIEF UPTURN IN PRECIP OVER THE CO MTS AND HIGH PLATEAU.
LINGERING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE AND TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE FROM WEST WED AND PAST EAST OF THE
AREA THU EVENING. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW BEHIND THE
RIDGE SHOULD BRING AN UPTICK IN MOUNTAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE IN A RETURN TO WINTER-LIKE WEATHER WILL
BRING A BROAD AREA OF SHRA/SHSN AND LOW CIGS/VSBY FROM NE UTAH
FIRST AND INTO WRN CO THROUGH 18Z...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REST OF WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-SHSN WITH
SCT THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS BAND...WITH CIGS BLO 050 AND VIS BLO
3SM AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCD AT
TIMES IN SHSN. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 10000FT EXCEPT DOWN TO 8000FT IN
HEAVIEST STORMS.

AFTER A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN PRECIP COVERAGE THIS EVENING...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MTS WILL BE OBSCURED AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO
MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION
AIRPORTS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ009-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KPUB 250536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.

AN UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. THIS WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...THROUGH SAT MORN. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AFTN...CROSSING THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTN AND EVE.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS AFTER 18Z WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MT PASSES
UNDER THUNDERSHOWERS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.

AN UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. THIS WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...THROUGH SAT MORN. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AFTN...CROSSING THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTN AND EVE.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS AFTER 18Z WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MT PASSES
UNDER THUNDERSHOWERS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.

AN UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. THIS WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...THROUGH SAT MORN. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AFTN...CROSSING THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTN AND EVE.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS AFTER 18Z WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MT PASSES
UNDER THUNDERSHOWERS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.

AN UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. THIS WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...THROUGH SAT MORN. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AFTN...CROSSING THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTN AND EVE.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS AFTER 18Z WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MT PASSES
UNDER THUNDERSHOWERS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.

AN UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. THIS WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...THROUGH SAT MORN. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AFTN...CROSSING THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTN AND EVE.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS AFTER 18Z WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MT PASSES
UNDER THUNDERSHOWERS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS.

AN UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO. THIS WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...THROUGH SAT MORN. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE AFTN...CROSSING THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
LATE AFTN AND EVE.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS AFTER 18Z WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MT PASSES
UNDER THUNDERSHOWERS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 250406
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1006 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER FAR WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING
HAS DIMINISHED BUT NOT ELIMINATED SHOWERS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. MOISTURE IS WORKING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE RIDGE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
PROGGED TO BE MORE THAN 0.5 INCH ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG VORT
MAX THAT WAS MOVING INTO NW UTAH WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NE UTAH BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THIS STRONGER FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS ARE AROUND 9-10KFT THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH CONVECTION WILL
DRIVE SNOW BRIEFLY DOWN ANOTHER 1K TO 2KFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY THAT APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
10KFT. WE WILL EVALUATE FURTHER OVERNIGHT.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE SO FAR THIS EVENING. HRRR HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
EAST CENTRAL UTAH AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. ADDITIONAL UPDATES
LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS H5 DIFLUENCE KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EASTERN UTAH AS
WELL...BUT DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IN EASTERN
UTAH SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS. THIS SMALL `BREAK` OF DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE RAIN MOVING INTO SW COLORADO BY 10 OR 11 PM TONIGHT AND
NE UTAH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS A LEAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NW CO IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A NERN
PACIFIC JET DIGGING THE MAIN BUT SPLITTING TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER
ERN AZ BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RAMP UP AGAIN
LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 700 MB TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT COME THROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.7
INCH. FLOW SWITCHES FAIRLY QUICKLY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS TRY TO BRIEFLY WRAP SOME DRIER AIR
BACK IN MIDDAY SUNDAY ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (ROUGHLY
700-600 MB) BUT THEN QUICKLY FILLS IT IN AS THE EASTERLY FLOW
PUSHES MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE. TEMPS ALOFT NOT OVERLY COLD
HOWEVER...SO SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OUTSIDE OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT COULD DRIVE IT BELOW
8000 FT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS HOWEVER...BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS WITH MODELS
PUTTING OUT 6+ INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ELK
MTNS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WORKING ON THE COOLER AIR. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK
FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS
BRING A PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ONLY ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z. THEN A
BROADER AREA OF SHRA/SHSN AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO IMPACT NE UTAH
FIRST. BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REMINDER OF EASTERN UTAH AND THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO BETWEEN
12Z-18Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-SHSN WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS BAND...WITH CIGS BLO 050 AND VIS BLO 3SM AT TIMES IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCD AT TIMES IN SHSN. SNOW
LEVEL AROUND 10000FT EXCEPT DOWN TO 8000FT IN HEAVIEST STORMS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 250342
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

DISSIPATING SHOWERS AROUND THE FRINGES OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...THEN MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
ALL THIS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF FOOTHILLS WINDS TONIGHT...HRRR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LITTLE MOUNTAIN WAVE BUT MAINLY AFFECTING HIGH MOUNTAINS AND AREAS
JUST WEST OF BOULDER. FLOW MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH BEHIND THE
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED TROUGH TO OUR EAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE HELPING SPARK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LESS WIND ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL KEEP STORMS WEAKER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS WHERE THE JET OVER KANSAS COULD STILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE ACTIVITY DURING THE SAME TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER SYSTEM PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BLOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE NORMAL WINDY CHANNELED AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGHER
CAPES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. Q-G
LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS COULD ACT TO SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE AS WELL BUT
RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE...A HOST OF
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH 700-500 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ON THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN A NEARLY NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. CANT EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH SUNDAY...NEAR
9000-9500 FEET...AND WILL ONLY LOWER MODESTLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MONDAY FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHEST FOOTHILLS MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THE MAIN STORM ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. AS LONG AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL ALSO
STAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY PRECIP
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.

BY TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM WHICH WOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS FOR
A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 250342
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

DISSIPATING SHOWERS AROUND THE FRINGES OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...THEN MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
ALL THIS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF FOOTHILLS WINDS TONIGHT...HRRR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LITTLE MOUNTAIN WAVE BUT MAINLY AFFECTING HIGH MOUNTAINS AND AREAS
JUST WEST OF BOULDER. FLOW MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH BEHIND THE
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED TROUGH TO OUR EAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE HELPING SPARK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LESS WIND ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL KEEP STORMS WEAKER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS WHERE THE JET OVER KANSAS COULD STILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE ACTIVITY DURING THE SAME TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER SYSTEM PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BLOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE NORMAL WINDY CHANNELED AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGHER
CAPES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. Q-G
LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS COULD ACT TO SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE AS WELL BUT
RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE...A HOST OF
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH 700-500 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ON THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN A NEARLY NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. CANT EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH SUNDAY...NEAR
9000-9500 FEET...AND WILL ONLY LOWER MODESTLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MONDAY FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHEST FOOTHILLS MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THE MAIN STORM ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. AS LONG AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL ALSO
STAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY PRECIP
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.

BY TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM WHICH WOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS FOR
A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250127
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
727 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE SO FAR THIS EVENING. HRRR HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
EAST CENTRAL UTAH AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. ADDITIONAL UPDATES
LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS H5 DIFLUENCE KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EASTERN UTAH AS
WELL...BUT DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IN EASTERN
UTAH SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS. THIS SMALL `BREAK` OF DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE RAIN MOVING INTO SW COLORADO BY 10 OR 11 PM TONIGHT AND
NE UTAH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS A LEAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NW CO IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A NERN
PACIFIC JET DIGGING THE MAIN BUT SPLITTING TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER
ERN AZ BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RAMP UP AGAIN
LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 700 MB TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT COME THROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.7
INCH. FLOW SWITCHES FAIRLY QUICKLY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS TRY TO BRIEFLY WRAP SOME DRIER AIR
BACK IN MIDDAY SUNDAY ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (ROUGHLY
700-600 MB) BUT THEN QUICKLY FILLS IT IN AS THE EASTERLY FLOW
PUSHES MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE. TEMPS ALOFT NOT OVERLY COLD
HOWEVER...SO SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OUTSIDE OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT COULD DRIVE IT BELOW
8000 FT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS HOWEVER...BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS WITH MODELS
PUTTING OUT 6+ INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ELK
MTNS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WORKING ON THE COOLER AIR. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK
FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS
BRING A PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HELPING
TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. STILL SCT -SHRA/-SHSN ISOLATED -TSRA
COULD PRODUCE CIGS BLO 050 AND VSBY BLO 3SM MAINLY AT HIGHER SITES
LIKE KASE AND KTEX THROUGH 03Z. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A BROADER AREA OF SHRA AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFT 09Z. WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-SHSN
WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 3SM AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MTN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCD AT TIMES IN SHSN. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 10000FT EXCEPT
DOWN TO 8000FT IN HEAVIEST STORMS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 242202
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
402 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS H5 DIFLUENCE KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EASTERN UTAH AS
WELL...BUT DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IN EASTERN
UTAH SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS. THIS SMALL `BREAK` OF DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE RAIN MOVING INTO SW COLORADO BY 10 OR 11 PM TONIGHT AND
NE UTAH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS A LEAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NW CO IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A NERN
PACIFIC JET DIGGING THE MAIN BUT SPLITTING TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED OVER ERN AZ
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW THEN THEN TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RAMP UP AGAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 700 MB TROUGH AND COLD FRONT COME
THROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH. FLOW
SWITCHES FAIRLY QUICKLY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS TRY TO BRIEFLY WRAP SOME DRIER AIR BACK IN
MIDDAY SUNDAY ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (ROUGHLY 700-600 MB)
BUT THEN QUICKLY FILLS IT IN AS THE EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE
OVER THE DIVIDE. TEMPS ALOFT NOT OVERLY COLD HOWEVER...SO SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT COULD DRIVE IT BELOW 8000 FT AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
HOWEVER...BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS WITH MODELS PUTTING OUT 6+
INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ELK MTNS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WORKING ON THE COOLER AIR. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK
FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS
BRING A PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HELPING
TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. STILL SCT -SHRA/-SHSN ISOLATED -TSRA
COULD PRODUCE CIGS BLO 050 AND VSBY BLO 3SM MAINLY AT HIGHER SITES
LIKE KASE AND KTEX THROUGH 03Z. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A BROADER AREA OF SHRA AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFT 09Z. WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-SHSN
WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 3SM AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MTN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCD AT TIMES IN SHSN. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 10000FT EXCEPT
DOWN TO 8000FT IN HEAVIEST STORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 242202
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
402 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS H5 DIFLUENCE KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EASTERN UTAH AS
WELL...BUT DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IN EASTERN
UTAH SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS. THIS SMALL `BREAK` OF DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE RAIN MOVING INTO SW COLORADO BY 10 OR 11 PM TONIGHT AND
NE UTAH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS A LEAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NW CO IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A NERN
PACIFIC JET DIGGING THE MAIN BUT SPLITTING TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED OVER ERN AZ
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW THEN THEN TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RAMP UP AGAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 700 MB TROUGH AND COLD FRONT COME
THROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH. FLOW
SWITCHES FAIRLY QUICKLY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS TRY TO BRIEFLY WRAP SOME DRIER AIR BACK IN
MIDDAY SUNDAY ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (ROUGHLY 700-600 MB)
BUT THEN QUICKLY FILLS IT IN AS THE EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE
OVER THE DIVIDE. TEMPS ALOFT NOT OVERLY COLD HOWEVER...SO SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT COULD DRIVE IT BELOW 8000 FT AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
HOWEVER...BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS WITH MODELS PUTTING OUT 6+
INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ELK MTNS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WORKING ON THE COOLER AIR. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK
FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS
BRING A PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HELPING
TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. STILL SCT -SHRA/-SHSN ISOLATED -TSRA
COULD PRODUCE CIGS BLO 050 AND VSBY BLO 3SM MAINLY AT HIGHER SITES
LIKE KASE AND KTEX THROUGH 03Z. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A BROADER AREA OF SHRA AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFT 09Z. WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-SHSN
WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 3SM AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MTN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCD AT TIMES IN SHSN. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 10000FT EXCEPT
DOWN TO 8000FT IN HEAVIEST STORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND
50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND A BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.

TOMORROW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL ONTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 9000 FEET.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR ALL 3 SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.  SIMILAR STORY FOR THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW...WITH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASING
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND
50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND A BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.

TOMORROW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL ONTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 9000 FEET.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR ALL 3 SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.  SIMILAR STORY FOR THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW...WITH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASING
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 242133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

FOR THIS EVENING...UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
SOME OF THESE SMALL CELLS HAVE EVEN SHOWN SOME MINOR ROTATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES.  ANOTHER AREA WITH MORE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER...WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND WINDS
ARE SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE.  STORMS HAVE BEEN RAMPING UP A BIT
ALONG THIS BORDER AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SPOTTY STORMS TOO...BUT THESE STORMS DO NOT
HAVE HAS MUCH REFLECTIVITY IN THEM.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 50 MPH FOR MOST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMING
SOUTH THROUGH EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...DOWN INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  THIS IS TRUE
ALSO OF THE STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  FINALLY...ANY STORM
TRACKING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE...ROUGHLY...8500 FEET.

FOR TOMORROW...THINGS START TO RAMP ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADED OUR WAY.  WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT SOME COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE...ROUGHLY...9000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STRONG SPRING STORM ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY....THE LASTEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT...WHERE AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER LOW TRACK...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS EMSEMBLE MEAN
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THESE FORECASTS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER SUNDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH EASTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CONTDVD THROUGH THE HIGH MT VALLEYS
AND INTO THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY... AND WITH MOISTURE WRAPING AROUND
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE RAMPART
RANGE...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE WET MTS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM AND GEM THE DROPPING
H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -2C AND -4C SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6K FEET OR LOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
IMPACTFUL STORM ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH WET
HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY DAMAGING BUDDING TREES AND POWERLINES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STAY TUNED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LATEST MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND
50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND A BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...INTO CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES...COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.

TOMORROW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL ONTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 9000 FEET.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR ALL 3 SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.  SIMILAR STORY FOR THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW...WITH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASING
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KBOU 242103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE HELPING SPARK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LESS WIND ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL KEEP STORMS WEAKER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS WHERE THE JET OVER KANSAS COULD STILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE ACTIVITY DURING THE SAME TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER SYSTEM PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BLOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE NORMAL WINDY CHANNELED AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGHER
CAPES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. Q-G
LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS COULD ACT TO SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE AS WELL BUT
RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE...A HOST OF
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH 700-500 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ON THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN A NEARLY NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. CANT EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH SUNDAY...NEAR
9000-9500 FEET...AND WILL ONLY LOWER MODESTLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MONDAY FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHEST FOOTHILLS MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THE MAIN STORM ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. AS LONG AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL ALSO
STAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY PRECIP
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.

BY TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM WHICH WOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS SHOULD TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT KBDU AND
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE SOUTH METRO AREA INCLUDING KAPA. ANOTHER
MAY SKIRT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KBJC. KDEN MAY JUST ESCAPE THE
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD THEM IN FOR KAPA LATER...POSSIBLY FOR KBJC EARLIER.
THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
AND WESTERLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS. DOWNSLOPING PATTERN OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS NEAR KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
HIGH MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS.

LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY LOWER CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 242103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE HELPING SPARK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LESS WIND ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL KEEP STORMS WEAKER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS WHERE THE JET OVER KANSAS COULD STILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE ACTIVITY DURING THE SAME TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER SYSTEM PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BLOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE NORMAL WINDY CHANNELED AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGHER
CAPES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. Q-G
LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS COULD ACT TO SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE AS WELL BUT
RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE...A HOST OF
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH 700-500 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ON THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN A NEARLY NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. CANT EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH SUNDAY...NEAR
9000-9500 FEET...AND WILL ONLY LOWER MODESTLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MONDAY FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHEST FOOTHILLS MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THE MAIN STORM ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. AS LONG AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL ALSO
STAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY PRECIP
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.

BY TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM WHICH WOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS SHOULD TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT KBDU AND
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE SOUTH METRO AREA INCLUDING KAPA. ANOTHER
MAY SKIRT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KBJC. KDEN MAY JUST ESCAPE THE
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD THEM IN FOR KAPA LATER...POSSIBLY FOR KBJC EARLIER.
THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
AND WESTERLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS. DOWNSLOPING PATTERN OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS NEAR KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
HIGH MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS.

LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY LOWER CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 242103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE HELPING SPARK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LESS WIND ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL KEEP STORMS WEAKER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS WHERE THE JET OVER KANSAS COULD STILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE ACTIVITY DURING THE SAME TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER SYSTEM PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BLOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE NORMAL WINDY CHANNELED AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGHER
CAPES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. Q-G
LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS COULD ACT TO SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE AS WELL BUT
RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE...A HOST OF
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH 700-500 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ON THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN A NEARLY NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. CANT EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH SUNDAY...NEAR
9000-9500 FEET...AND WILL ONLY LOWER MODESTLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MONDAY FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHEST FOOTHILLS MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THE MAIN STORM ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. AS LONG AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL ALSO
STAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY PRECIP
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.

BY TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM WHICH WOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS SHOULD TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT KBDU AND
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE SOUTH METRO AREA INCLUDING KAPA. ANOTHER
MAY SKIRT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KBJC. KDEN MAY JUST ESCAPE THE
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD THEM IN FOR KAPA LATER...POSSIBLY FOR KBJC EARLIER.
THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
AND WESTERLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS. DOWNSLOPING PATTERN OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS NEAR KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
HIGH MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS.

LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY LOWER CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 242103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE HELPING SPARK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LESS WIND ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL KEEP STORMS WEAKER. COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS WHERE THE JET OVER KANSAS COULD STILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE ACTIVITY DURING THE SAME TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER SYSTEM PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BLOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE NORMAL WINDY CHANNELED AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING
BEHIND FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGHER
CAPES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. Q-G
LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS COULD ACT TO SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE AS WELL BUT
RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE...A HOST OF
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH 700-500 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 3 G/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ON THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN A NEARLY NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. CANT EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH SUNDAY...NEAR
9000-9500 FEET...AND WILL ONLY LOWER MODESTLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MONDAY FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHEST FOOTHILLS MAINLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING THE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THE MAIN STORM ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. AS LONG AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL ALSO
STAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY PRECIP
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS.

BY TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK WAVE DROPPING IN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE STORM WHICH WOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP
UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS SHOULD TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT KBDU AND
NORTH...AS WELL AS THE SOUTH METRO AREA INCLUDING KAPA. ANOTHER
MAY SKIRT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KBJC. KDEN MAY JUST ESCAPE THE
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD THEM IN FOR KAPA LATER...POSSIBLY FOR KBJC EARLIER.
THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
AND WESTERLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS. DOWNSLOPING PATTERN OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS NEAR KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
HIGH MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS.

LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY LOWER CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 241917
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
117 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AROUND 11AM THIS
MORNING...AND THEY LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR FOR A FEW SCANS (10 TO
15 MINS) BEFORE DWINDLING DOWN TO A PASSING SHOWER. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE SAN JUANS AND THE SOUTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SUSTAINING THEMSELVES...AND OVER THE ROAN
CLIFFS/FLATTOPS REGION. EXPECTING THE TSTORM THREAT TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR A SHORT TIME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT PATTERN OVER THE WEST TO BEGIN THE FORECAST CYCLE THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 0.40 INCHES WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASED COVERAGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATED AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL
HIGH POINT OF HIGHWAY 191 WELL BELOW THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL.
CONSEQUENTLY...DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TODAY OWING LARGELY TO INCREASED CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE SAME REASON...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO BLANKETING AFFECT OF CLOUDS. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANOTHER WET AND WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIGGING AND SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UT AND AZ BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLOSE OFF AT 500
MB OVER NE AZ. PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SAT EVENING. THE SNOW
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET DURING DAY...DROPPING TO ABOUT
8000 FEET AT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR
ABOVE 9500 FEET.

THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUE THROUGH THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND QUICKER THAN EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION
TODAY HAS ALREADY YIELDED NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA AS OF 18Z. MANY
ALREADY NEAR TAF SITES SO VCTS/VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DO BELIEVE INTENSITY WILL WANE WEST TO EAST
AFTER 20Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED AT HIGHER
SITES LIKE KASE AND KTEX. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A BROADER AREA OF SHRA AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFT 10Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 241917
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
117 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AROUND 11AM THIS
MORNING...AND THEY LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR FOR A FEW SCANS (10 TO
15 MINS) BEFORE DWINDLING DOWN TO A PASSING SHOWER. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE SAN JUANS AND THE SOUTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SUSTAINING THEMSELVES...AND OVER THE ROAN
CLIFFS/FLATTOPS REGION. EXPECTING THE TSTORM THREAT TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR A SHORT TIME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT PATTERN OVER THE WEST TO BEGIN THE FORECAST CYCLE THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 0.40 INCHES WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASED COVERAGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATED AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL
HIGH POINT OF HIGHWAY 191 WELL BELOW THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL.
CONSEQUENTLY...DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TODAY OWING LARGELY TO INCREASED CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE SAME REASON...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO BLANKETING AFFECT OF CLOUDS. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANOTHER WET AND WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIGGING AND SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UT AND AZ BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLOSE OFF AT 500
MB OVER NE AZ. PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SAT EVENING. THE SNOW
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET DURING DAY...DROPPING TO ABOUT
8000 FEET AT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR
ABOVE 9500 FEET.

THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUE THROUGH THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND QUICKER THAN EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION
TODAY HAS ALREADY YIELDED NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA AS OF 18Z. MANY
ALREADY NEAR TAF SITES SO VCTS/VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DO BELIEVE INTENSITY WILL WANE WEST TO EAST
AFTER 20Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED AT HIGHER
SITES LIKE KASE AND KTEX. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A BROADER AREA OF SHRA AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFT 10Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241749 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1149 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT PATTERN OVER THE WEST TO BEGIN THE FORECAST CYCLE THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 0.40 INCHES WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASED COVERAGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATED AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL
HIGH POINT OF HIGHWAY 191 WELL BELOW THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL.
CONSEQUENTLY...DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TODAY OWING LARGELY TO INCREASED CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE SAME REASON...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO BLANKETING AFFECT OF CLOUDS. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANOTHER WET AND WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIGGING AND SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UT AND AZ BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLOSE OFF AT 500
MB OVER NE AZ. PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SAT EVENING. THE SNOW
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET DURING DAY...DROPPING TO ABOUT
8000 FEET AT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR
ABOVE 9500 FEET.

THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUE THROUGH THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND QUICKER THAN EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION
TODAY HAS ALREADY YIELDED NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA AS OF 18Z. MANY
ALREADY NEAR TAF SITES SO VCTS/VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DO BELIEVE INTENSITY WILL WANE WEST TO EAST
AFTER 20Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED AT HIGHER
SITES LIKE KASE AND KTEX. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A BROADER AREA OF SHRA AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFT 10Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241749 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1149 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT PATTERN OVER THE WEST TO BEGIN THE FORECAST CYCLE THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 0.40 INCHES WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASED COVERAGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATED AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL
HIGH POINT OF HIGHWAY 191 WELL BELOW THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL.
CONSEQUENTLY...DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TODAY OWING LARGELY TO INCREASED CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE SAME REASON...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO BLANKETING AFFECT OF CLOUDS. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANOTHER WET AND WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIGGING AND SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UT AND AZ BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLOSE OFF AT 500
MB OVER NE AZ. PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SAT EVENING. THE SNOW
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET DURING DAY...DROPPING TO ABOUT
8000 FEET AT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR
ABOVE 9500 FEET.

THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUE THROUGH THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND QUICKER THAN EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION
TODAY HAS ALREADY YIELDED NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA AS OF 18Z. MANY
ALREADY NEAR TAF SITES SO VCTS/VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DO BELIEVE INTENSITY WILL WANE WEST TO EAST
AFTER 20Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED AT HIGHER
SITES LIKE KASE AND KTEX. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A BROADER AREA OF SHRA AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFT 10Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 241712
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SECTIONS OF THE SE
COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEW POINTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY
CAREFULLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC TROUGH AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AT OR
ABOVE 60 IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HEAVY PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE IN NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE
AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS
SAT MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID
70S...TEMPERED ONLY BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE SEVERE.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HGWY 50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE...AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LOW
LEVEL HELICITY A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS
FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE
MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY
ABOVE 8500 FEET. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT
ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCSH STARTING AT 20Z FOR
KCOS AND KALS...AND AT 21Z FOR KPUB. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES.
WILL BE MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 241712
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SECTIONS OF THE SE
COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEW POINTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY
CAREFULLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC TROUGH AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AT OR
ABOVE 60 IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HEAVY PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE IN NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE
AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS
SAT MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID
70S...TEMPERED ONLY BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE SEVERE.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HGWY 50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE...AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LOW
LEVEL HELICITY A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS
FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE
MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY
ABOVE 8500 FEET. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT
ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCSH STARTING AT 20Z FOR
KCOS AND KALS...AND AT 21Z FOR KPUB. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES.
WILL BE MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 241712
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SECTIONS OF THE SE
COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEW POINTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY
CAREFULLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC TROUGH AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AT OR
ABOVE 60 IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HEAVY PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE IN NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE
AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS
SAT MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID
70S...TEMPERED ONLY BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE SEVERE.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HGWY 50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE...AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LOW
LEVEL HELICITY A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS
FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE
MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY
ABOVE 8500 FEET. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT
ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCSH STARTING AT 20Z FOR
KCOS AND KALS...AND AT 21Z FOR KPUB. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES.
WILL BE MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KBOU 241634
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1034 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE FOG
FORMED THIS MORNING IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS ABOVE 45 DEGREES...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM EASTERN WELD COUNTY DOWN TO WASHINGTON COUNTY.
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND UPWARD QG MOTION MAXING OUT BY NOON...SHOULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START FIRING WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEAST WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LESS CAPE IS AVAILABLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON
OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN RESULT
MORE IN JUST GUSTY WINDS HERE ALONG THE METRO AREAS AS DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
LATE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...UNSURE IF IT
WILL GO CLOCKWISE OR COUNTERCLOCKWISE AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 7 KTS DURING THE TRANSITION. THEN EXPECT
NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSTMS OUT
OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE
EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. A FEW CELLS COULD PUSH OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER AND BRING SHORTLIVED WESTERLY WINDS
TO THE TERMINALS. DOWNSLOPING PATTERN OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35
KTS NEAR KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240949
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
349 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME LLVL
MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS DWPTS WERE IN THE
40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SXNS OF THE SE COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS
NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEWPTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND SHIFT/SFC TROUGH
AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCTD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AOA 60
IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HVY PRECIP EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER TRACKS
THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL
NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE AREA SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER
HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GRT BASIN. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SAT
MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID 70S...TEMPERED ONLY
BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SVR.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HGWY
50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...AND
BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LLVL HELICITY A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS
ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
WINDS TODAY AT KCOS AND KPUB ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...BUT
PREDICTING DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AS TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE A
WEAK NW GRADIENT OVER THE HIGH PLAIN WHILE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
FORCE AN UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE TWO WIND REGIMES WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY CAUSING WINDS LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AT KCOS AND
KPUB. A MORE SUSTAINED SFC WIND IS LIKELY AT KALS. ALL 3 TAF SITES
MAY SEE SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE AIRPORTS TODAY WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS. I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER
AT THE 3 SITES BUT PROBABILITY IS PRETTY LOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240949
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
349 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME LLVL
MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS DWPTS WERE IN THE
40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SXNS OF THE SE COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS
NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEWPTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND SHIFT/SFC TROUGH
AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCTD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AOA 60
IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HVY PRECIP EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER TRACKS
THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL
NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE AREA SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER
HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GRT BASIN. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SAT
MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID 70S...TEMPERED ONLY
BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SVR.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HGWY
50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...AND
BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LLVL HELICITY A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS
ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
WINDS TODAY AT KCOS AND KPUB ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...BUT
PREDICTING DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY AS TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE A
WEAK NW GRADIENT OVER THE HIGH PLAIN WHILE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
FORCE AN UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE TWO WIND REGIMES WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY CAUSING WINDS LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AT KCOS AND
KPUB. A MORE SUSTAINED SFC WIND IS LIKELY AT KALS. ALL 3 TAF SITES
MAY SEE SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE AIRPORTS TODAY WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS. I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER
AT THE 3 SITES BUT PROBABILITY IS PRETTY LOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240904
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT PATTERN OVER THE WEST TO BEGIN THE FORECAST CYCLE THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 0.40 INCHES WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASED COVERAGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATED AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL
HIGH POINT OF HIGHWAY 191 WELL BELOW THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL.
CONSEQUENTLY...DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TODAY OWING LARGELY TO INCREASED CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE SAME REASON...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO BLANKETING AFFECT OF CLOUDS. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANOTHER WET AND WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIGGING AND SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UT AND AZ BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLOSE OFF AT 500
MB OVER NE AZ. PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SAT EVENING. THE SNOW
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET DURING DAY...DROPPING TO ABOUT
8000 FEET AT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR
ABOVE 9500 FEET.

THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUE THROUGH THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
CO...GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KMTJ TO JUST WEST OF KCEZ. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CAUSE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
OVER KTEX AND KDRO.

AFTER 18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP 18Z...BECOMING
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH WHILE CAUSING AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING STORMS HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF THESE
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 240904
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT PATTERN OVER THE WEST TO BEGIN THE FORECAST CYCLE THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 0.40 INCHES WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASED COVERAGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATED AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL
HIGH POINT OF HIGHWAY 191 WELL BELOW THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL.
CONSEQUENTLY...DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TODAY OWING LARGELY TO INCREASED CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE SAME REASON...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO BLANKETING AFFECT OF CLOUDS. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANOTHER WET AND WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIGGING AND SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UT AND AZ BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLOSE OFF AT 500
MB OVER NE AZ. PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SAT EVENING. THE SNOW
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET DURING DAY...DROPPING TO ABOUT
8000 FEET AT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR
ABOVE 9500 FEET.

THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUE THROUGH THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
CO...GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KMTJ TO JUST WEST OF KCEZ. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CAUSE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
OVER KTEX AND KDRO.

AFTER 18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP 18Z...BECOMING
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH WHILE CAUSING AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING STORMS HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF THESE
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240904
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT PATTERN OVER THE WEST TO BEGIN THE FORECAST CYCLE THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 0.40 INCHES WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASED COVERAGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATED AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL
HIGH POINT OF HIGHWAY 191 WELL BELOW THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL.
CONSEQUENTLY...DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TODAY OWING LARGELY TO INCREASED CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE SAME REASON...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO BLANKETING AFFECT OF CLOUDS. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANOTHER WET AND WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIGGING AND SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UT AND AZ BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLOSE OFF AT 500
MB OVER NE AZ. PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SAT EVENING. THE SNOW
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET DURING DAY...DROPPING TO ABOUT
8000 FEET AT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR
ABOVE 9500 FEET.

THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUE THROUGH THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
CO...GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KMTJ TO JUST WEST OF KCEZ. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CAUSE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
OVER KTEX AND KDRO.

AFTER 18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP 18Z...BECOMING
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH WHILE CAUSING AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING STORMS HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF THESE
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240904
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT PATTERN OVER THE WEST TO BEGIN THE FORECAST CYCLE THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 0.40 INCHES WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASED COVERAGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATED AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL
HIGH POINT OF HIGHWAY 191 WELL BELOW THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL.
CONSEQUENTLY...DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TODAY OWING LARGELY TO INCREASED CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE SAME REASON...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO BLANKETING AFFECT OF CLOUDS. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANOTHER WET AND WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIGGING AND SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UT AND AZ BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLOSE OFF AT 500
MB OVER NE AZ. PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SAT EVENING. THE SNOW
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET DURING DAY...DROPPING TO ABOUT
8000 FEET AT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR
ABOVE 9500 FEET.

THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUE THROUGH THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
CO...GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KMTJ TO JUST WEST OF KCEZ. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CAUSE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
OVER KTEX AND KDRO.

AFTER 18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP 18Z...BECOMING
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH WHILE CAUSING AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING STORMS HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF THESE
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240904
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT PATTERN OVER THE WEST TO BEGIN THE FORECAST CYCLE THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 0.40 INCHES WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASED COVERAGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATED AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL
HIGH POINT OF HIGHWAY 191 WELL BELOW THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL.
CONSEQUENTLY...DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TODAY OWING LARGELY TO INCREASED CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE SAME REASON...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO BLANKETING AFFECT OF CLOUDS. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANOTHER WET AND WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIGGING AND SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UT AND AZ BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLOSE OFF AT 500
MB OVER NE AZ. PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SAT EVENING. THE SNOW
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET DURING DAY...DROPPING TO ABOUT
8000 FEET AT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR
ABOVE 9500 FEET.

THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUE THROUGH THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
CO...GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KMTJ TO JUST WEST OF KCEZ. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CAUSE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
OVER KTEX AND KDRO.

AFTER 18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP 18Z...BECOMING
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH WHILE CAUSING AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING STORMS HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF THESE
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240904
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SPLIT PATTERN OVER THE WEST TO BEGIN THE FORECAST CYCLE THIS
MORNING. A CLOSED LOW WHICH ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS OPENED AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED AND SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES BEFORE NOON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS BEFORE NOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 0.40 INCHES WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASED COVERAGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE USUAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVES ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS A
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPENS DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATED AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL
HIGH POINT OF HIGHWAY 191 WELL BELOW THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL.
CONSEQUENTLY...DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TODAY OWING LARGELY TO INCREASED CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE SAME REASON...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO BLANKETING AFFECT OF CLOUDS. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY POINTS TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANOTHER WET AND WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIGGING AND SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
REACH THE UT AND AZ BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLOSE OFF AT 500
MB OVER NE AZ. PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SAT EVENING. THE SNOW
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET DURING DAY...DROPPING TO ABOUT
8000 FEET AT NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL OCCUR
ABOVE 9500 FEET.

THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRAVEL THROUGH NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUE THROUGH THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
CO...GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KMTJ TO JUST WEST OF KCEZ. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CAUSE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
OVER KTEX AND KDRO.

AFTER 18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP 18Z...BECOMING
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH WHILE CAUSING AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING STORMS HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF THESE
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KBOU 240902
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS
EVENING. WL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING
TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. COULD SEE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS DEVELOP AT KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240902
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS
EVENING. WL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING
TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. COULD SEE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS DEVELOP AT KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 240902
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS
EVENING. WL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING
TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. COULD SEE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS DEVELOP AT KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240902
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS
EVENING. WL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING
TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. COULD SEE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35 KTS DEVELOP AT KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 240528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

...STILL SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...

ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RIPE OUT EAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE.  INHIBITING
FACTORS SO FAR...I THINK...INCLUDE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NOW AN EXPANDING HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER.
BUT...CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.  AS HIGHER LEVEL
CONVECTION WORKS EAST...IT WILL WORK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST
AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AVAILABLE.  THESE COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  HI RES MODELS STILL DEPICT
THIS...EVEN THROUGH MID EVENING.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL INCLUDE 1
INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WITH A TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SPC IS CURRENTLY AT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES AND HOLDING. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THIS STATUS FOR A FEW HOURS NOW.  ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS ACTUALLY LOOKING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN IT IS TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
DECREASED AS CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
AVAILABLE.  PRIMARY THREATS LOOK TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING POPS(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS) AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL
UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT 00Z SATURDAY
SHIFTS INTO IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THEN BRIEF TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGING MOVES OVER CWFA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY 15Z SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PROJECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION(INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW). WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY.

THEN...DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRI MORNING...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL SITE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 240528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

...STILL SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...

ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RIPE OUT EAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE.  INHIBITING
FACTORS SO FAR...I THINK...INCLUDE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NOW AN EXPANDING HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER.
BUT...CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.  AS HIGHER LEVEL
CONVECTION WORKS EAST...IT WILL WORK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST
AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AVAILABLE.  THESE COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  HI RES MODELS STILL DEPICT
THIS...EVEN THROUGH MID EVENING.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL INCLUDE 1
INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WITH A TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SPC IS CURRENTLY AT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES AND HOLDING. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THIS STATUS FOR A FEW HOURS NOW.  ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS ACTUALLY LOOKING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN IT IS TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
DECREASED AS CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
AVAILABLE.  PRIMARY THREATS LOOK TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING POPS(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS) AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL
UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT 00Z SATURDAY
SHIFTS INTO IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THEN BRIEF TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGING MOVES OVER CWFA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY 15Z SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PROJECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION(INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW). WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY.

THEN...DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRI MORNING...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL SITE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 240528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

...STILL SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...

ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RIPE OUT EAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE.  INHIBITING
FACTORS SO FAR...I THINK...INCLUDE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NOW AN EXPANDING HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER.
BUT...CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.  AS HIGHER LEVEL
CONVECTION WORKS EAST...IT WILL WORK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST
AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AVAILABLE.  THESE COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  HI RES MODELS STILL DEPICT
THIS...EVEN THROUGH MID EVENING.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL INCLUDE 1
INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WITH A TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SPC IS CURRENTLY AT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES AND HOLDING. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THIS STATUS FOR A FEW HOURS NOW.  ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS ACTUALLY LOOKING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN IT IS TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
DECREASED AS CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
AVAILABLE.  PRIMARY THREATS LOOK TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING POPS(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS) AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL
UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT 00Z SATURDAY
SHIFTS INTO IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THEN BRIEF TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGING MOVES OVER CWFA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY 15Z SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PROJECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION(INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW). WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY.

THEN...DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRI MORNING...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL SITE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 240528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

...STILL SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...

ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RIPE OUT EAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE.  INHIBITING
FACTORS SO FAR...I THINK...INCLUDE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NOW AN EXPANDING HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER.
BUT...CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.  AS HIGHER LEVEL
CONVECTION WORKS EAST...IT WILL WORK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST
AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AVAILABLE.  THESE COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  HI RES MODELS STILL DEPICT
THIS...EVEN THROUGH MID EVENING.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL INCLUDE 1
INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WITH A TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SPC IS CURRENTLY AT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES AND HOLDING. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THIS STATUS FOR A FEW HOURS NOW.  ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS ACTUALLY LOOKING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN IT IS TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
DECREASED AS CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
AVAILABLE.  PRIMARY THREATS LOOK TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING POPS(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS) AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL
UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT 00Z SATURDAY
SHIFTS INTO IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THEN BRIEF TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGING MOVES OVER CWFA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY 15Z SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PROJECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION(INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW). WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY.

THEN...DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRI MORNING...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL SITE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 240528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

...STILL SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...

ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RIPE OUT EAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE.  INHIBITING
FACTORS SO FAR...I THINK...INCLUDE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NOW AN EXPANDING HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER.
BUT...CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.  AS HIGHER LEVEL
CONVECTION WORKS EAST...IT WILL WORK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST
AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AVAILABLE.  THESE COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  HI RES MODELS STILL DEPICT
THIS...EVEN THROUGH MID EVENING.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL INCLUDE 1
INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WITH A TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SPC IS CURRENTLY AT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES AND HOLDING. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THIS STATUS FOR A FEW HOURS NOW.  ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS ACTUALLY LOOKING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN IT IS TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
DECREASED AS CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
AVAILABLE.  PRIMARY THREATS LOOK TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING POPS(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS) AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL
UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT 00Z SATURDAY
SHIFTS INTO IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THEN BRIEF TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGING MOVES OVER CWFA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY 15Z SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PROJECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION(INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW). WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY.

THEN...DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRI MORNING...THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL SITE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240504
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AFTER 06Z...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 25 MPH BUT WILL OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AROUND 18Z...
BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH
WHILE OBSCURING SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
STORMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 240504
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AFTER 06Z...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 25 MPH BUT WILL OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AROUND 18Z...
BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH
WHILE OBSCURING SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
STORMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240504
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AFTER 06Z...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 25 MPH BUT WILL OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AROUND 18Z...
BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH
WHILE OBSCURING SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
STORMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240504
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AFTER 06Z...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 25 MPH BUT WILL OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AROUND 18Z...
BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH
WHILE OBSCURING SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
STORMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 240504
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AFTER 06Z...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 25 MPH BUT WILL OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AROUND 18Z...
BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH
WHILE OBSCURING SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
STORMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KBOU 240207
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
807 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR ERN
PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY
FURTHER WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. MOST PCPN SHOULD END AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A BOUNDARY IS MOVING NNW WHICH MAY SWITCH WINDS TO A MORE SSE
DIRECTION THROUGH 04Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO A
MORE SSW DIRECTION WITH DRAINAGE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 240207
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
807 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR ERN
PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY
FURTHER WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. MOST PCPN SHOULD END AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A BOUNDARY IS MOVING NNW WHICH MAY SWITCH WINDS TO A MORE SSE
DIRECTION THROUGH 04Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO A
MORE SSW DIRECTION WITH DRAINAGE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT AROUND 15KTS PRODUCING
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS. UNTIL 03Z...ALL TAF SITES
COULD SEE BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR
LEVELS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND
KDRO. AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT AROUND 15KTS PRODUCING
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS. UNTIL 03Z...ALL TAF SITES
COULD SEE BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR
LEVELS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND
KDRO. AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT AROUND 15KTS PRODUCING
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS. UNTIL 03Z...ALL TAF SITES
COULD SEE BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR
LEVELS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND
KDRO. AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT AROUND 15KTS PRODUCING
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS. UNTIL 03Z...ALL TAF SITES
COULD SEE BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR
LEVELS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND
KDRO. AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT AROUND 15KTS PRODUCING
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS. UNTIL 03Z...ALL TAF SITES
COULD SEE BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR
LEVELS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND
KDRO. AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT AROUND 15KTS PRODUCING
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS. UNTIL 03Z...ALL TAF SITES
COULD SEE BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR
LEVELS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND
KDRO. AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT AROUND 15KTS PRODUCING
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS. UNTIL 03Z...ALL TAF SITES
COULD SEE BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR
LEVELS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND
KDRO. AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT AROUND 15KTS PRODUCING
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS. UNTIL 03Z...ALL TAF SITES
COULD SEE BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR
LEVELS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND
KDRO. AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT AROUND 15KTS PRODUCING
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS. UNTIL 03Z...ALL TAF SITES
COULD SEE BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR
LEVELS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND
KDRO. AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AT AROUND 15KTS PRODUCING
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KTS. UNTIL 03Z...ALL TAF SITES
COULD SEE BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR
LEVELS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX AND
KDRO. AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRST BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
349 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

...STILL SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...

ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RIPE OUT EAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE.  INHIBITING
FACTORS SO FAR...I THINK...INCLUDE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NOW AN EXPANDING HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER.
BUT...CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.  AS HIGHER LEVEL
CONVECTION WORKS EAST...IT WILL WORK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST
AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AVAILABLE.  THESE COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  HI RES MODELS STILL DEPICT
THIS...EVEN THROUGH MID EVENING.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL INCLUDE 1
INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WITH A TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SPC IS CURRENTLY AT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES AND HOLDING. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THIS STATUS FOR A FEW HOURS NOW.  ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS ACTUALLY LOOKING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN IT IS TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
DECREASED AS CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
AVAILABLE.  PRIMARY THREATS LOOK TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING POPS(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS) AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL
UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT 00Z SATURDAY
SHIFTS INTO IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THEN BRIEF TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGING MOVES OVER CWFA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY 15Z SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PROJECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION(INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW). WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY.

THEN...DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS EVENING WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD CONTAIN 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ON FRIDAY...PRIMARY THREATS ALL AREAS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD TRACK ACROSS ANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...SO WILL CARRY
VCTS UNTIL 02Z ALL 3 SITES.  THE SAME SCENARIO IS IN STORE FOR
FRIDAY SO VCTS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO ALL 3 SITES FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 232149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
349 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

...STILL SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...

ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RIPE OUT EAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE.  INHIBITING
FACTORS SO FAR...I THINK...INCLUDE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NOW AN EXPANDING HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER.
BUT...CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.  AS HIGHER LEVEL
CONVECTION WORKS EAST...IT WILL WORK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST
AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AVAILABLE.  THESE COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  HI RES MODELS STILL DEPICT
THIS...EVEN THROUGH MID EVENING.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL INCLUDE 1
INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WITH A TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SPC IS CURRENTLY AT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES AND HOLDING. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THIS STATUS FOR A FEW HOURS NOW.  ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS ACTUALLY LOOKING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN IT IS TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
DECREASED AS CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
AVAILABLE.  PRIMARY THREATS LOOK TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING POPS(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS) AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL
UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT 00Z SATURDAY
SHIFTS INTO IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THEN BRIEF TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGING MOVES OVER CWFA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY 15Z SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PROJECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION(INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW). WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY.

THEN...DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS EVENING WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD CONTAIN 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ON FRIDAY...PRIMARY THREATS ALL AREAS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD TRACK ACROSS ANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...SO WILL CARRY
VCTS UNTIL 02Z ALL 3 SITES.  THE SAME SCENARIO IS IN STORE FOR
FRIDAY SO VCTS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO ALL 3 SITES FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOU 232108
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
308 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS REPORTED AT APA/DEN. NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE CURRENT SHOWERS SO MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE TS/WIND
GUSTS CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO DRAINAGE
LATER THIS EVENING. MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHANCES OF TS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 232108
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
308 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS REPORTED AT APA/DEN. NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE CURRENT SHOWERS SO MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE TS/WIND
GUSTS CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO DRAINAGE
LATER THIS EVENING. MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHANCES OF TS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 232108
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
308 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS REPORTED AT APA/DEN. NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE CURRENT SHOWERS SO MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE TS/WIND
GUSTS CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO DRAINAGE
LATER THIS EVENING. MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHANCES OF TS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 232108
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
308 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS REPORTED AT APA/DEN. NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE CURRENT SHOWERS SO MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE TS/WIND
GUSTS CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO DRAINAGE
LATER THIS EVENING. MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHANCES OF TS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 232102
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH A FEW -TSRA WILL FIRE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A RATE OF 10-15KTS. THE REGION
EAST OF A LINE FROM K20V-KASE-KTEX WILL BE THE REGION OF HIGHEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM 18Z-02Z TODAY. OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEARBY -SHRA/-TSRA TODAY.

VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH PASSING
STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE/KEGE/KRIL.

DISSIPATING -SHRA IS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHORT WAVE COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND KDRO/KTEX AFTER
09Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 232102
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER TAVAPUTS PLATEAU IN ERN UTAH
AND HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NW COLORADO CORNER.
PER SATELLITE DATA...APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES
TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). THIS SHORT WAVE MOST LIKELY
THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THE NE UTAH CONVECTION.  SUBSIDENCE
PROBABLY A FACTOR FOR DELAYED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT VISUAL IMAGES SHOW EXPANDING AREA OF VERTICAL
TOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THIS
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-35KTS
WILL BE THE COMMON WEATHER ASSOCIATED FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS).

DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP13 MODELS INDICATE
PCPN OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE BY THE FOUR CORNERS AS H3 PV IS STRONGEST IN THIS
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE COLD FRONT AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW ON SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME
QUITE ELONGATED AS IT ENTERS UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PWAT
VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCH WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH
RAIN AS LOW AS 8000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FT.

A H5 CLOSED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY MORNING IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS WOBBLED FROM RUN TO RUN
SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT WISHY-WASHY ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
(WHERE SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM). THE CLOSED LOW LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AT H7 IS PROGGED FURTHER NORTH...WHICH INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AND THAT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH AT A DECENT CLIP INSTEAD OF
LINGERING LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FAVORING THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...THE SAN
JUANS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
CONCERNED WITH ENERGY SEEN IN H3 PV FIELD GOING SO FAR SOUTH AND
INTO NM...SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HELD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW.

SHOWERS STILL ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SKYROCKET TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH A FEW -TSRA WILL FIRE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A RATE OF 10-15KTS. THE REGION
EAST OF A LINE FROM K20V-KASE-KTEX WILL BE THE REGION OF HIGHEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM 18Z-02Z TODAY. OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEARBY -SHRA/-TSRA TODAY.

VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH PASSING
STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE/KEGE/KRIL.

DISSIPATING -SHRA IS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHORT WAVE COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND KDRO/KTEX AFTER
09Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231811
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1211 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LINGERED LOW CLOUD COVER LONGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS PER
SATELLITE.  ALSO...BROUGHT IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
50 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD
CONTAIN 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT
24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRACK ACROSS ANY OF THE TAF SITES
TODAY...SO WILL CARRY VCTS ALL 3 TAF SITES STARTING AT
21Z FOR KALS AND KCOS...AND AT 22Z FOR KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231811
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1211 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LINGERED LOW CLOUD COVER LONGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS PER
SATELLITE.  ALSO...BROUGHT IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
50 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD
CONTAIN 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT
24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRACK ACROSS ANY OF THE TAF SITES
TODAY...SO WILL CARRY VCTS ALL 3 TAF SITES STARTING AT
21Z FOR KALS AND KCOS...AND AT 22Z FOR KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231811
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1211 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LINGERED LOW CLOUD COVER LONGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS PER
SATELLITE.  ALSO...BROUGHT IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
50 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD
CONTAIN 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT
24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRACK ACROSS ANY OF THE TAF SITES
TODAY...SO WILL CARRY VCTS ALL 3 TAF SITES STARTING AT
21Z FOR KALS AND KCOS...AND AT 22Z FOR KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231811
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1211 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LINGERED LOW CLOUD COVER LONGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS PER
SATELLITE.  ALSO...BROUGHT IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
50 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD
CONTAIN 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT
24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRACK ACROSS ANY OF THE TAF SITES
TODAY...SO WILL CARRY VCTS ALL 3 TAF SITES STARTING AT
21Z FOR KALS AND KCOS...AND AT 22Z FOR KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231757
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1157 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
50 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD
CONTAIN 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT
24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRACK ACROSS ANY OF THE TAF SITES
TODAY...SO WILL CARRY VCTS ALL 3 TAF SITES STARTING AT
21Z FOR KALS AND KCOS...AND AT 22Z FOR KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231757
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1157 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
50 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD
CONTAIN 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT
24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRACK ACROSS ANY OF THE TAF SITES
TODAY...SO WILL CARRY VCTS ALL 3 TAF SITES STARTING AT
21Z FOR KALS AND KCOS...AND AT 22Z FOR KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231750
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A PAIR OF LOW CIRCULATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE FIRST OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...WILL MERGE EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS EFFECTIVELY SLOWS ANY
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE MERGING SYSTEMS TODAY. AS A RESULT...
DRIER AIR MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA CAUSING PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) TO DIP TO
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.30 INCHES. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED WITH MOUNTAINS FAVORED.
VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH.

DIURNAL COOLING WILL BRING ABOUT AN END TO MOIST CONVECTION THOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE
CALIFORNIA LOW WILL OPEN AND PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE PASSING WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IT APPEARS FRIDAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 0.35 AND
0.40 INCHES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. 7H FLOW
INCREASES AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH SO OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
TODAY.

TEMPERATURES RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SUNSHINE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIP TO NEAR NORMAL. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL COOL IT DOWN
A BIT FRIDAY THOUGH HIGHS WON/T BE FAR FROM NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

PIECES OF ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM MOVES IN. QPF
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERY TYPE RAIN/STORMS THAN A
PROLONGED SOAKING RAIN. HOWEVER...THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
CHANGE ALL THAT.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW CLOSES OFF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE LOW CLOSING OFF SOONER BUT
THE END RESULT IS THE SAME...PRECIP. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
AFD...PWATS CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE .5 TO .6 INCH RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXAMINATION OF THE H3
LEVEL SHOWS PLENTY OF ASSOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH WILL ALSO AID
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT EVEN WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE JET STREAM
SUPPORT. HEAVIEST PRECIP AMTS LOOK TO FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE
CWA. OF COURSE...ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THIS COURSE WILL CHANGE QPF
AND EXPECTED WX...MAYBE DRAMATICALLY IF MODELS START CHANGING
THEIR TUNE. DESPITE POSSIBLE DEVIATIONS IN LATER MODEL
RUNS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A STORMY AND WET WEEKEND IS IN
STORE.

ONE THING NOT TOUCHED ON IS SNOWFALL. H7 TEMPS (NEAR 10,000 FEET) LOOK
TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE EXPECTED HEAVIEST PRECIP. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO WITH 6 INCHES TO MAYBE EVEN A
FOOT IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. SAN JUANS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED
FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW TOO. WITH LATE SEASON SNOWFALL CRITERIA NOW
IN PLACE...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

PRECIP WILL END MONDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE DIVIDE WHICH WILL
SEE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW/RAIN. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH A FEW -TSRA WILL FIRE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A RATE OF 10-15KTS. THE REGION
EAST OF A LINE FROM K20V-KASE-KTEX WILL BE THE REGION OF HIGHEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM 18Z-02Z TODAY. OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEARBY -SHRA/-TSRA TODAY.

VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH PASSING
STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE/KEGE/KRIL.

DISSIPATING -SHRA IS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHORT WAVE COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND KDRO/KTEX AFTER
09Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231750
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A PAIR OF LOW CIRCULATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE FIRST OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...WILL MERGE EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS EFFECTIVELY SLOWS ANY
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE MERGING SYSTEMS TODAY. AS A RESULT...
DRIER AIR MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA CAUSING PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) TO DIP TO
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.30 INCHES. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED WITH MOUNTAINS FAVORED.
VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH.

DIURNAL COOLING WILL BRING ABOUT AN END TO MOIST CONVECTION THOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE
CALIFORNIA LOW WILL OPEN AND PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE PASSING WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IT APPEARS FRIDAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 0.35 AND
0.40 INCHES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. 7H FLOW
INCREASES AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH SO OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
TODAY.

TEMPERATURES RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SUNSHINE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIP TO NEAR NORMAL. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL COOL IT DOWN
A BIT FRIDAY THOUGH HIGHS WON/T BE FAR FROM NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

PIECES OF ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM MOVES IN. QPF
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERY TYPE RAIN/STORMS THAN A
PROLONGED SOAKING RAIN. HOWEVER...THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
CHANGE ALL THAT.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW CLOSES OFF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE LOW CLOSING OFF SOONER BUT
THE END RESULT IS THE SAME...PRECIP. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
AFD...PWATS CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE .5 TO .6 INCH RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXAMINATION OF THE H3
LEVEL SHOWS PLENTY OF ASSOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH WILL ALSO AID
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT EVEN WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE JET STREAM
SUPPORT. HEAVIEST PRECIP AMTS LOOK TO FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE
CWA. OF COURSE...ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THIS COURSE WILL CHANGE QPF
AND EXPECTED WX...MAYBE DRAMATICALLY IF MODELS START CHANGING
THEIR TUNE. DESPITE POSSIBLE DEVIATIONS IN LATER MODEL
RUNS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A STORMY AND WET WEEKEND IS IN
STORE.

ONE THING NOT TOUCHED ON IS SNOWFALL. H7 TEMPS (NEAR 10,000 FEET) LOOK
TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE EXPECTED HEAVIEST PRECIP. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO WITH 6 INCHES TO MAYBE EVEN A
FOOT IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. SAN JUANS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED
FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW TOO. WITH LATE SEASON SNOWFALL CRITERIA NOW
IN PLACE...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

PRECIP WILL END MONDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE DIVIDE WHICH WILL
SEE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW/RAIN. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH A FEW -TSRA WILL FIRE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A RATE OF 10-15KTS. THE REGION
EAST OF A LINE FROM K20V-KASE-KTEX WILL BE THE REGION OF HIGHEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM 18Z-02Z TODAY. OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEARBY -SHRA/-TSRA TODAY.

VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH PASSING
STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE/KEGE/KRIL.

DISSIPATING -SHRA IS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHORT WAVE COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND KDRO/KTEX AFTER
09Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231750
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A PAIR OF LOW CIRCULATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE FIRST OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...WILL MERGE EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS EFFECTIVELY SLOWS ANY
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE MERGING SYSTEMS TODAY. AS A RESULT...
DRIER AIR MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA CAUSING PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) TO DIP TO
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.30 INCHES. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED WITH MOUNTAINS FAVORED.
VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH.

DIURNAL COOLING WILL BRING ABOUT AN END TO MOIST CONVECTION THOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE
CALIFORNIA LOW WILL OPEN AND PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE PASSING WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IT APPEARS FRIDAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 0.35 AND
0.40 INCHES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. 7H FLOW
INCREASES AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH SO OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
TODAY.

TEMPERATURES RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SUNSHINE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIP TO NEAR NORMAL. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL COOL IT DOWN
A BIT FRIDAY THOUGH HIGHS WON/T BE FAR FROM NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

PIECES OF ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM MOVES IN. QPF
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERY TYPE RAIN/STORMS THAN A
PROLONGED SOAKING RAIN. HOWEVER...THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
CHANGE ALL THAT.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW CLOSES OFF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE LOW CLOSING OFF SOONER BUT
THE END RESULT IS THE SAME...PRECIP. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
AFD...PWATS CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE .5 TO .6 INCH RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXAMINATION OF THE H3
LEVEL SHOWS PLENTY OF ASSOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH WILL ALSO AID
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT EVEN WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE JET STREAM
SUPPORT. HEAVIEST PRECIP AMTS LOOK TO FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE
CWA. OF COURSE...ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THIS COURSE WILL CHANGE QPF
AND EXPECTED WX...MAYBE DRAMATICALLY IF MODELS START CHANGING
THEIR TUNE. DESPITE POSSIBLE DEVIATIONS IN LATER MODEL
RUNS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A STORMY AND WET WEEKEND IS IN
STORE.

ONE THING NOT TOUCHED ON IS SNOWFALL. H7 TEMPS (NEAR 10,000 FEET) LOOK
TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE EXPECTED HEAVIEST PRECIP. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO WITH 6 INCHES TO MAYBE EVEN A
FOOT IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. SAN JUANS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED
FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW TOO. WITH LATE SEASON SNOWFALL CRITERIA NOW
IN PLACE...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

PRECIP WILL END MONDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE DIVIDE WHICH WILL
SEE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW/RAIN. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH A FEW -TSRA WILL FIRE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A RATE OF 10-15KTS. THE REGION
EAST OF A LINE FROM K20V-KASE-KTEX WILL BE THE REGION OF HIGHEST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM 18Z-02Z TODAY. OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEARBY -SHRA/-TSRA TODAY.

VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH PASSING
STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE/KEGE/KRIL.

DISSIPATING -SHRA IS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHORT WAVE COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND KDRO/KTEX AFTER
09Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231627
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1027 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE STRATUS/FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOME MID-HI LVL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A JET STREAK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ONGOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY. MAIN IMPACTS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. CURRENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN BECOME QUITE ERRATIC LATER IN THE DAY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231627
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1027 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE STRATUS/FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOME MID-HI LVL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A JET STREAK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ONGOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY. MAIN IMPACTS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. CURRENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN BECOME QUITE ERRATIC LATER IN THE DAY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231627
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1027 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE STRATUS/FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOME MID-HI LVL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A JET STREAK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ONGOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY. MAIN IMPACTS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. CURRENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN BECOME QUITE ERRATIC LATER IN THE DAY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231627
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1027 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE STRATUS/FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOME MID-HI LVL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A JET STREAK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ONGOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY. MAIN IMPACTS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. CURRENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN BECOME QUITE ERRATIC LATER IN THE DAY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231627
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1027 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE STRATUS/FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOME MID-HI LVL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A JET STREAK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ONGOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY. MAIN IMPACTS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. CURRENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN BECOME QUITE ERRATIC LATER IN THE DAY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231627
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1027 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MUCH OF THE STRATUS/FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOME MID-HI LVL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A JET STREAK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROF OVER FRONT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER FAR EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ONGOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MDLS KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COULD
SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE A VERY INTENSE ONE. FURTHER EAST...THE MDLS HAVE SOME BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON. FORECAST CAPES IN THIS REGION IN THE 1200-1500
J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE STORMS
WILL BE FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HAIL TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES UP TO
500 J/KG. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP AND ALSO OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
BEST. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUNDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST
EAST OF LAS VEGAS. OVERALL...MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY ENTERING
NORTHERN TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY. FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE OVER THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ARRIVING SOONER THEN THE GFS AND GEM. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER DRY. MAIN IMPACTS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. CURRENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN BECOME QUITE ERRATIC LATER IN THE DAY WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231341
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
741 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST
TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CIGS SHOULD
STAY E OF THE TERMINALS...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE KS AND NM BORDERS.
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THE
TERMINALS...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS WILL BE
E OF KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CIGS MAY
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...BUT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231341
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
741 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST
TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CIGS SHOULD
STAY E OF THE TERMINALS...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE KS AND NM BORDERS.
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THE
TERMINALS...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS WILL BE
E OF KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CIGS MAY
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...BUT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231341
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
741 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST
TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CIGS SHOULD
STAY E OF THE TERMINALS...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE KS AND NM BORDERS.
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THE
TERMINALS...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS WILL BE
E OF KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CIGS MAY
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...BUT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 231341
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
741 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST
TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CIGS SHOULD
STAY E OF THE TERMINALS...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE KS AND NM BORDERS.
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THE
TERMINALS...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS WILL BE
E OF KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CIGS MAY
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS...BUT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



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