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000
FXUS65 KBOU 242148
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
348 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WINDS WEAKER IN DENVER AREA WITH
PRESENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE....WITH DIRECTION MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL
DECREASE...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN SURFACE WINDS. SATELLITE
SHOWING NEXT BATCH OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER UTAH...WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SHOULD SEE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN. LATEST CIRRA SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WAVE CLOUD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR TOWARDS MORNING. DID ADJUST SKY GRIDS
A BIT. ON FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO HELP LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN COUNTY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER A BIT BUT RECENT PRECIPITATION
AIDING IN CONTINUED GREENUP. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ONLY AREA AT
THIS TIME WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD GET CRITICAL...BUT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEEPENING SURFACE LEESIDE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOVES TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
EVENING. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL...INCREASING FIRE DANGER TO
POSSIBLE CRITICAL LEVELS. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR LINCOLN COUNTY AND EASTERN ELBERT COUNTY. THIS WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVING SNOW
LEVELS NEAR 10000 FT. MODERATE QG LIFT AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL
THEN MOVE OVERHEAD TO INCREASE SHOWERS IN COVERAGE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL...MAINLY NORTH OF I76.
MODELS SHOWING CAPE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND THE NAM AND ECMWF HAS NOW COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS. THIS SOLUTION WILL TAKE THE FOUR CORNERS LOW
AROUND 00Z EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO
ABOUT 6-7 THOUSAND FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE GOOD SNOW STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AND IN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
WITH THE INITIAL WARM TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MELTING BEFORE THE
MAIN FRONT...OVERALL SEE ONLY ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (6-12
INCHES IN 24 HOURS) FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. NO WINTER STORM WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER THAN WARNING CRITERIA
AMOUNTS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPING STORM AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM CONVECTION.

AS FOR THE PLAINS...DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PLAINS DRY UNTIL
LATE EVENING WHEN THE 700 MB LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 40
MB/HR OF UPWARD MOTION. EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
PROGGED WITH TEND TO DOWNSLOPE US OUT...ITS HARD TO IGNORE THE QG
PARAMETERS. WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHANCES AND LIKELYS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ALMOST ALL RAIN EXPECTED...EXCEPT SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE OVER OUR AREA FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS - FURTHER
EAST INTO KANSAS. HOWEVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE A
POTENTIAL TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER. THIS IS SHOWN BY WRAPAROUND MOISTURE...A THETA E RIDGE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

THE ALMOST STACKED LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING TOO LOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
A FEW LOCATIONS MAYBE SEEING FREEZING OVER THE PLAINS.

MODELS NOW EXTENDING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY NOW. THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF DENVER. WINDS A BIT
MORE EASTERLY AT KDEN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 12 KTS. SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 12000
FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPING OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW...A BIT MORE WESTERLY AT KBJC.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A WAVE CLOUD
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 10Z.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL. WAVE CLOUD LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY 15 OR 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY...WITH
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT KDEN AND KAPA AFTER 18Z. COULD
SEE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 12 KTS AFTER 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 10-15% RANGE AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM KIOWA ON THE PALMER DIVIDE TO AKRON. RECENT
PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT OVER DOUGLAS...WESTERN ELBERT...EASTERN
ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE AND WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES HAVE KEPT THESE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
NEAR THE SAME. WILL HAVE TO REVISIT TOMORROW TO SEE IF FUELS HAVE
BECOME DRY ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE AREAS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L/KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 242148
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
348 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WINDS WEAKER IN DENVER AREA WITH
PRESENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE....WITH DIRECTION MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL
DECREASE...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN SURFACE WINDS. SATELLITE
SHOWING NEXT BATCH OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER UTAH...WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SHOULD SEE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN. LATEST CIRRA SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WAVE CLOUD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR TOWARDS MORNING. DID ADJUST SKY GRIDS
A BIT. ON FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO HELP LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN COUNTY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER A BIT BUT RECENT PRECIPITATION
AIDING IN CONTINUED GREENUP. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ONLY AREA AT
THIS TIME WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD GET CRITICAL...BUT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEEPENING SURFACE LEESIDE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOVES TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
EVENING. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL...INCREASING FIRE DANGER TO
POSSIBLE CRITICAL LEVELS. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR LINCOLN COUNTY AND EASTERN ELBERT COUNTY. THIS WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVING SNOW
LEVELS NEAR 10000 FT. MODERATE QG LIFT AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL
THEN MOVE OVERHEAD TO INCREASE SHOWERS IN COVERAGE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL...MAINLY NORTH OF I76.
MODELS SHOWING CAPE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND THE NAM AND ECMWF HAS NOW COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS. THIS SOLUTION WILL TAKE THE FOUR CORNERS LOW
AROUND 00Z EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO
ABOUT 6-7 THOUSAND FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE GOOD SNOW STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AND IN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
WITH THE INITIAL WARM TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MELTING BEFORE THE
MAIN FRONT...OVERALL SEE ONLY ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (6-12
INCHES IN 24 HOURS) FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. NO WINTER STORM WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER THAN WARNING CRITERIA
AMOUNTS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPING STORM AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM CONVECTION.

AS FOR THE PLAINS...DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PLAINS DRY UNTIL
LATE EVENING WHEN THE 700 MB LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 40
MB/HR OF UPWARD MOTION. EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
PROGGED WITH TEND TO DOWNSLOPE US OUT...ITS HARD TO IGNORE THE QG
PARAMETERS. WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHANCES AND LIKELYS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ALMOST ALL RAIN EXPECTED...EXCEPT SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE OVER OUR AREA FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS - FURTHER
EAST INTO KANSAS. HOWEVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE A
POTENTIAL TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER. THIS IS SHOWN BY WRAPAROUND MOISTURE...A THETA E RIDGE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

THE ALMOST STACKED LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING TOO LOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
A FEW LOCATIONS MAYBE SEEING FREEZING OVER THE PLAINS.

MODELS NOW EXTENDING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY NOW. THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF DENVER. WINDS A BIT
MORE EASTERLY AT KDEN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 12 KTS. SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 12000
FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPING OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW...A BIT MORE WESTERLY AT KBJC.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A WAVE CLOUD
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 10Z.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL. WAVE CLOUD LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY 15 OR 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY...WITH
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT KDEN AND KAPA AFTER 18Z. COULD
SEE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 12 KTS AFTER 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 10-15% RANGE AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM KIOWA ON THE PALMER DIVIDE TO AKRON. RECENT
PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT OVER DOUGLAS...WESTERN ELBERT...EASTERN
ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE AND WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES HAVE KEPT THESE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
NEAR THE SAME. WILL HAVE TO REVISIT TOMORROW TO SEE IF FUELS HAVE
BECOME DRY ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE AREAS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L/KRIEDERMAN



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000
FXUS65 KGJT 242136 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION ON RED FLAG WARNING ZONES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. VALLEY INVERSIONS DEVELOP
TONIGHT BUT WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING NOT AS
COLD TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE WINDY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A DIGGING
PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND BY FRI EVENING. AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE/JET MAX
TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS WRN UT INTO WY ON FRI PUSHING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD NE UT BY LATE IN THE DAY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WY SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS 35-40 MPH SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF ERN UT
INTO NW CO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ERN UINTA MTNS/ERN TAVAPUTS LATE FRI...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE COLD FRONT
STALLS TO OUR WEST ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO AZ.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MTN
SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE START OF A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY
AND SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN...AND SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
ON SATURDAY BY DAYBREAK IN EASTERN UTAH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FAVOR
SOUTH FACING LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 9000
TO 9500 FEET INITIALLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY SO THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW IS
THERE FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SNOW TO WATER RATIO IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW AT THE START OF THIS EVENT...8 TO 1 RATIO.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION AND BRING ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 5500 FEET ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING IN UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
SUNDAY WILL FEEL DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
PLUMMETED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW TO WATER RATIO BY THE END OF THIS
STORM ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO 12 TO 1 AS MORE
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE AT MOIST LAYER WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE REGION.

PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT
CLEAR. VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS AND EC SO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST PAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRI MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY IN COLORADO ZONES 290 AND 292 SO ISSUED
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS FOR FRIDAY DUE TO EXPECTED GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RH LOWER THAN 15%.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ009-012-017>019.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ290-292.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 242111
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. VALLEY INVERSIONS DEVELOP
TONIGHT BUT WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING NOT AS
COLD TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE WINDY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A DIGGING
PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND BY FRI EVENING. AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE/JET MAX
TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS WRN UT INTO WY ON FRI PUSHING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD NE UT BY LATE IN THE DAY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WY SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS 35-40 MPH SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF ERN UT
INTO NW CO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ERN UINTA MTNS/ERN TAVAPUTS LATE FRI...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE COLD FRONT
STALLS TO OUR WEST ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO AZ.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MTN
SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE START OF A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY
AND SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN...AND SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
ON SATURDAY BY DAYBREAK IN EASTERN UTAH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FAVOR
SOUTH FACING LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 9000
TO 9500 FEET INITIALLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY SO THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW IS
THERE FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SNOW TO WATER RATIO IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW AT THE START OF THIS EVENT...8 TO 1 RATIO.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION AND BRING ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 5500 FEET ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EVEN THE LOWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING IN UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.
SUNDAY WILL FEEL DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
PLUMMETED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW TO WATER RATIO BY THE END OF THIS
STORM ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO 12 TO 1 AS MORE
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE AT MOIST LAYER WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE REGION.

PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT
CLEAR. VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS AND EC SO CONTINUING LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST PAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRI MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY IN COLORADO ZONES 290 AND 292 SO ISSUED
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS FOR FRIDAY DUE TO EXPECTED GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RH LOWER THAN 15%.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ009-012-017>019.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ205.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...JAM



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPUB 242055
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
255 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT WITH PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES BEING
TEMPERATURES AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARYING DEGREES OF PRIMARILY HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...SOME PRIMARILY LOCALIZED HIGHER TERRAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

LATEST REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY AS DRY UPPER ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS WELL AS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR LATE APRIL SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WHILE ABOVE LATE APRIL SEASONAL AVERAGE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FRI NIGHT A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WEST
COAST...AND AN UPR LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AZ
BY 18Z SAT. THE UPR TROF WL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE DAY
AND IS FORECAST TO REACH TO 4 CORNERS BY 00Z SUN AND THE TRACK
EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN CO BORDER SAT NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR THE
AREA ON SAT OVR MOST OF THE AREA.  THE SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE DRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT...RESULTING
IN CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.  WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FROM 18Z SAT TO 02Z SUN. FOR ALL OF THE SERN CO PLAINS.  THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY MAY HAVE A PERIOD IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WL BE REACHED...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACRS THE AREA...RAISING THE DEW POINTS.

AS THE UPR TROF MOVES TOWARD THE AREA ON SAT...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND THEN INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN SPREAD ACRS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND OVR
THE EASTERN MTS. TEMPS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY WARM DURING THE DAY
SAT...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL MAINLY BE OVR THE HYR PEAKS. SAT
NIGHT...PCPN CONTINUES OVR THE MTS AS THE UPR LOW TRACKS EASTWARD
ALONG THE SRN CO BORDER...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
EARLY SUN MORNING.  COLDER AIR WL BE SPREADING ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA SAT NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY LOWERING TO AROUND OR A
LITTLE LOWER THAN 6000 FT. THEN WHEN THE UPR LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE
ERN CO BORDER EARLY SUN...PCPN WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. ALSO ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...STRONG NW
TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPS WL BE COLD ENOUGH OVR THE PALMER
DVD THAT THERE WL BE SNOW.  THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND SNOW
COULD LEAD TO DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY
AND THE PALMER DVD SUN MORNING. ON SUNDAY THE UPR LOW THEN IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND PCPN SPREADS EASTWARD
ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BY 00Z MON THE NAM HAS THE UPR LOW CENTER SW OF
KHLC...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE IT FARTHER NORTH INTO WRN NE.
AS A RESULT...THE GFS AND EC HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS OVR THE SERN CO
PLAINS THAN THE NAM.  PCPN WL BE DECREASING OVR WRN AREAS AND THE
MTNS DURING THE DAY SUN.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CONTDVD FROM SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUN...SO FOR NOW WL ISSUE A WINTER WX WATCH FOR
THE HYR ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD.

UNSETTLED WX IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE WEEK AS
THE UPR LOW SITS OVR THE PLAINS STATES.  THIS WL LEAD TO BREEZY AND
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS THE AREA AND BRINGING SOME PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DRY AND MILD TO WARM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ222-226>237.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR COZ058-060-061-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241831
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1231 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCORPORATE RECENT REAL-TIME DATA.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF GRIDS AND BLENDED
INTO REST OF FORECAST.  NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

...SYSTEM HEADED EAST...

SHORTWAVE HEADED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE PLAINS EAST OF LA JUNTA...BUT QUICKLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OUT OF COLORADO BY DAYBREAK.

BEHIND IT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STILL QUITE WINDY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...BUT THEN CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PRESIDE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AND TONIGHT.  MAYBE A LITTLE COOL THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE WINDS CONTINUE...BUT A REALLY NICE AFTERNOON SHAPING UP.
GET OUT AND ENJOY IF YOU CAN. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. INCREASING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO
PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE WARM WITH 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON
SUNDAY. MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE STORM TRACK WITH THE NAM
AND ECMWF TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WHILE THE GFS
IS FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. THE STORM TRACK WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN WHAT AREAS SEE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW...AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...HAVE TRENDED
WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK.

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. ALREADY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS...GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30
KTS...TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. EXTREME
CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 11 KFT. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...WITH 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 50
KTS OR MORE POSSIBLE. WIND DIRECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY A FACTOR IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH
THE STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 7 TO 8
KFT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK THAT
THIS WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WOULD ALSO KEEP
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THIS STORM BARES WATCHING...AS IT MAY BRING WINTER
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH WHAT
TO DO WITH THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS STALL THE
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
MODEL DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
WITH 50S TO 60S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DRY AND MILD TO WARM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241707
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1107 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF GRIDS AND BLENDED
INTO REST OF FORECAST.  NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

...SYSTEM HEADED EAST...

SHORTWAVE HEADED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE PLAINS EAST OF LA JUNTA...BUT QUICKLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OUT OF COLORADO BY DAYBREAK.

BEHIND IT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STILL QUITE WINDY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...BUT THEN CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PRESIDE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AND TONIGHT.  MAYBE A LITTLE COOL THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE WINDS CONTINUE...BUT A REALLY NICE AFTERNOON SHAPING UP.
GET OUT AND ENJOY IF YOU CAN. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. INCREASING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO
PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE WARM WITH 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON
SUNDAY. MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE STORM TRACK WITH THE NAM
AND ECMWF TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WHILE THE GFS
IS FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. THE STORM TRACK WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN WHAT AREAS SEE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW...AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...HAVE TRENDED
WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK.

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. ALREADY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS...GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30
KTS...TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. EXTREME
CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 11 KFT. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...WITH 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 50
KTS OR MORE POSSIBLE. WIND DIRECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY A FACTOR IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH
THE STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 7 TO 8
KFT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK THAT
THIS WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WOULD ALSO KEEP
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THIS STORM BARES WATCHING...AS IT MAY BRING WINTER
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH WHAT
TO DO WITH THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS STALL THE
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
MODEL DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
WITH 50S TO 60S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DRY AND MILD TO WARM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241707
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1107 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ALLOWED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE DELTA/MONTROSE AREAS (ZONE 11)
TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM. AUTOMATED OBSERVATION STATIONS INDICATED TEMPS
WERE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AND SHOULD BE WARMING QUICKLY UNDER THE
MORNING SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER UTAH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST. EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE SUNNY AND SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER.

TONIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BUT VALLEY INVERSIONS APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER BUT WARM ADVECTION LIMITS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SW WINDS STRENGTHEN
AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN UINTA MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SURFACE CONDITIONS
REMAIN VERY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 0.5 INCHES. COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT ON SATURDAY BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9000 FEET BUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO TIMBERLINE.

PROMINENT AMPLIFIED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO...WELL
MAYBE. MODELS STILL SHOW A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...PROBABLY
STRUGGLING WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
NOT WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR (IT LOOKS LIKELY FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA)...BUT HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.  DIGGING SYSTEMS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OR FOUR CORNERS AREA TYPICALLY MOVE SLOWER THAN WHAT
MODELS INDICATE...BUT INSTEAD THEY SHOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE
ACCELERATING ACROSS THE AREA (WHICH LIMITS THE RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL). WITH QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYERED
LIFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS NEAR SWRN COLORADO. BUT TOUGH TO QUANTIFY RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN NW FLOW WILL AFFECT NW
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NWRN SAN
JUANS. SLOW AND STEADY SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE OVER THE PARK/GORE
RANGES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DIMINISHED THREAT OF PCPN BUT COOL
WEATHER OR A SLOW WARMING TREND PREVAILS AS NORTH FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRI MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY IN COLORADO ZONES 290 AND 292. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF RH VALUES WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOWEST RH
VALUES WILL OCCUR IN THE PARADOX VALLEY/ ZONE 290 WHILE THE MONTROSE
AREA / ZONE 292 MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DRY. SO A FIRE WX WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR CO FIRE ZONE 290.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ205.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...JOE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 241632
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1032 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AIRMASS TO
BE DRY...STABLE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG WITH LOWERING PRESSURE OVER KANSAS CREATING GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST CORNER. WEAK
ANTICYCLONE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR DIA...CREATING WEAKER WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NEARBY PLAINS WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT IN
THE DENVER AREA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND THE
APPROACHING RIDGE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATER IN THE DAY. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WHICH WILL
PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER AN ANTI-CYCLONE MAY
FORM AND CAUSE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
PARTS OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE
MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CERTAINLY SURROUNDS DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND THEN DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS COMING AROUND TO A MORE
CONSISTENT PATH...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRENDS STILL
ABOUND. AT THIS TIME...PER WATER VAPOR LOOP SEEMS LIKE THE ECMWF
HAS A HANDLE ON THE SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC
BETWEEN 140W AND 170E. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AMPLE BUCKLING OF THE
FLOW WITH A RATHER SHARP TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. IF
THE SHARPER TROUGH SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN WOULD PREFER THE
SLOWER AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF.

FOR FRIDAY....DEEP WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND WARM/RIDGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER BUT MOST OF THAT AREA SAW LIGHT/MODERATE
PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT AND GREEN-UP CONTINUES. ONLY MARGINAL
AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AGAIN.

BY SATURDAY...THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR SATURDAY CONSIDERING THE
WARM ADVECTION...STRONG LEE TROUGHING AND MIXING...AND ONLY SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE PLAINS WITH STRONG AND DRY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS.

WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE QUITE SUBSTANTIAL. ALMOST ALL MODELS SUGGEST A DRYLINE PUSHING
WELL EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MODELS USUALLY OVERDO
THIS EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRYLINE WHEN DEEP PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR
IN EASTERN COLORADO. AT THIS TIME...WHILE WE DONT THINK THE
DRYLINE WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS MODELS SUGGEST...IT WOULD BE HARD
TO GET THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO HOLD EVEN OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
WILL STILL MENTION SOME THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND A COUPLE OF THE SREF PLUMES ARE SHOWING NEAR 1000 J/KG CAPE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

Q-G LIFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS DEEP AND STRONG WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AGAIN DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT MOVEMENT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
WILL TREND POP FORECAST TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW GIVEN
PREFERENCE MENTIONED ABOVE. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WOULD BE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WITH DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE DOWNSLOPE IS
MAXIMIZED. MEANWHILE...IN THE MOUNTAINS STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW
DEVELOPING ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND LIFT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY. STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES BUT POTENTIAL
IS CERTAINLY THERE. WITH REGARD TO FOOTHILL QPF AND POTENTIAL
RUNOFF...IF PERSISTENCE DUE TO ANY SLOWER STORM MOTION OR UPSLOPE
WOULD OCCUR THEN PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AT MOST
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000-7500 FEET. THAT WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIMIT ANY
RUNOFF EVEN IF STORM IS SLOWER/DEEPER THAN MOST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE.

FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A DEEP AND CLOSED UPPER TROUGH SEEMS
CONTENT TO SPIN OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING JUST
NORTHWEST OF DENVER CREATING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
AIRPORTS. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR MOVE THE ANTICYLONE EAST OF DENVER
AROUND 21Z...WITH WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS
THE DENVER AREA. THIS ALREADY NOTED IN THE LAST TAF UPDATE FOR
KDEN AND KBJC. WILL CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE WESTERLY WINDS OCCURRING AT KAPA BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...D-L



000
FXUS65 KGJT 241406
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
806 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ALLOWED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE DELTA/MONTROSE AREAS (ZONE 11)
TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM. AUTOMATED OBSERVATION STATIONS INDICATED TEMPS
WERE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AND SHOULD BE WARMING QUICKLY UNDER THE
MORNING SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER UTAH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST. EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE SUNNY AND SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER.

TONIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BUT VALLEY INVERSIONS APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER BUT WARM ADVECTION LIMITS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SW WINDS STRENGTHEN
AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN UINTA MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SURFACE CONDITIONS
REMAIN VERY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 0.5 INCHES. COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT ON SATURDAY BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9000 FEET BUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO TIMBERLINE.

PROMINENT AMPLIFIED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO...WELL
MAYBE. MODELS STILL SHOW A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...PROBABLY
STRUGGLING WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
NOT WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR (IT LOOKS LIKELY FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA)...BUT HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.  DIGGING SYSTEMS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OR FOUR CORNERS AREA TYPICALLY MOVE SLOWER THAN WHAT
MODELS INDICATE...BUT INSTEAD THEY SHOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE
ACCELERATING ACROSS THE AREA (WHICH LIMITS THE RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL). WITH QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYERED
LIFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS NEAR SWRN COLORADO. BUT TOUGH TO QUANTIFY RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN NW FLOW WILL AFFECT NW
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NWRN SAN
JUANS. SLOW AND STEADY SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE OVER THE PARK/GORE
RANGES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DIMINISHED THREAT OF PCPN BUT COOL
WEATHER OR A SLOW WARMING TREND PREVAILS AS NORTH FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY IN COLORADO ZONES 290 AND 292. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF RH VALUES WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOWEST RH
VALUES WILL OCCUR IN THE PARADOX VALLEY/ ZONE 290 WHILE THE MONTROSE
AREA / ZONE 292 MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DRY. SO A FIRE WX WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR CO FIRE ZONE 290.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ290.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JOE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 241344
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
744 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND THE
APPROACHING RIDGE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATER IN THE DAY. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WHICH WILL
PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER AN ANTI-CYCLONE MAY
FORM AND CAUSE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
PARTS OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE
MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CERTAINLY SURROUNDS DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND THEN DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS COMING AROUND TO A MORE
CONSISTENT PATH...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRENDS STILL
ABOUND. AT THIS TIME...PER WATER VAPOR LOOP SEEMS LIKE THE ECMWF
HAS A HANDLE ON THE SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC
BETWEEN 140W AND 170E. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AMPLE BUCKLING OF THE
FLOW WITH A RATHER SHARP TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. IF
THE SHARPER TROUGH SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN WOULD PREFER THE
SLOWER AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF.

FOR FRIDAY....DEEP WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND WARM/RIDGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER BUT MOST OF THAT AREA SAW LIGHT/MODERATE
PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT AND GREEN-UP CONTINUES. ONLY MARGINAL
AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AGAIN.

BY SATURDAY...THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR SATURDAY CONSIDERING THE
WARM ADVECTION...STRONG LEE TROUGHING AND MIXING...AND ONLY SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE PLAINS WITH STRONG AND DRY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS.

WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE QUITE SUBSTANTIAL. ALMOST ALL MODELS SUGGEST A DRYLINE PUSHING
WELL EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MODELS USUALLY OVERDO
THIS EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRYLINE WHEN DEEP PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR
IN EASTERN COLORADO. AT THIS TIME...WHILE WE DONT THINK THE
DRYLINE WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS MODELS SUGGEST...IT WOULD BE HARD
TO GET THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO HOLD EVEN OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
WILL STILL MENTION SOME THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND A COUPLE OF THE SREF PLUMES ARE SHOWING NEAR 1000 J/KG CAPE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

Q-G LIFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS DEEP AND STRONG WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AGAIN DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT MOVEMENT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
WILL TREND POP FORECAST TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW GIVEN
PREFERENCE MENTIONED ABOVE. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WOULD BE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WITH DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE DOWNSLOPE IS
MAXIMIZED. MEANWHILE...IN THE MOUNTAINS STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW
DEVELOPING ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND LIFT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY. STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES BUT POTENTIAL
IS CERTAINLY THERE. WITH REGARD TO FOOTHILL QPF AND POTENTIAL
RUNOFF...IF PERSISTENCE DUE TO ANY SLOWER STORM MOTION OR UPSLOPE
WOULD OCCUR THEN PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AT MOST
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000-7500 FEET. THAT WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIMIT ANY
RUNOFF EVEN IF STORM IS SLOWER/DEEPER THAN MOST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE.

FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A DEEP AND CLOSED UPPER TROUGH SEEMS
CONTENT TO SPIN OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED TAFS WITH WIND DIRECTIONS THIS MORNING. SEEMS AS
THOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DECREASING AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WEAK DIURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THIS MORNING. THEN
FORECASTING A LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AROUND OR SOUTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE WHICH WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS TO ANTICYCLONE THE WINDS AROUND TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION AROUND NOON TIME. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
SOME WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE LEESIDE LOW....HAVE ADDED A HINT OF THESE WINDS
TO THE BJC AND DEN TAFS...NOT TOO SURE IT WILL REACH APA IF THEY
DO DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. FORECASTING WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRICKY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT...THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 241344
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
744 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND THE
APPROACHING RIDGE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATER IN THE DAY. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WHICH WILL
PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER AN ANTI-CYCLONE MAY
FORM AND CAUSE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
PARTS OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE
MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CERTAINLY SURROUNDS DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND THEN DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS COMING AROUND TO A MORE
CONSISTENT PATH...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRENDS STILL
ABOUND. AT THIS TIME...PER WATER VAPOR LOOP SEEMS LIKE THE ECMWF
HAS A HANDLE ON THE SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC
BETWEEN 140W AND 170E. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AMPLE BUCKLING OF THE
FLOW WITH A RATHER SHARP TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. IF
THE SHARPER TROUGH SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN WOULD PREFER THE
SLOWER AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF.

FOR FRIDAY....DEEP WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND WARM/RIDGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER BUT MOST OF THAT AREA SAW LIGHT/MODERATE
PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT AND GREEN-UP CONTINUES. ONLY MARGINAL
AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AGAIN.

BY SATURDAY...THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR SATURDAY CONSIDERING THE
WARM ADVECTION...STRONG LEE TROUGHING AND MIXING...AND ONLY SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE PLAINS WITH STRONG AND DRY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS.

WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE QUITE SUBSTANTIAL. ALMOST ALL MODELS SUGGEST A DRYLINE PUSHING
WELL EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MODELS USUALLY OVERDO
THIS EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRYLINE WHEN DEEP PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR
IN EASTERN COLORADO. AT THIS TIME...WHILE WE DONT THINK THE
DRYLINE WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS MODELS SUGGEST...IT WOULD BE HARD
TO GET THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO HOLD EVEN OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
WILL STILL MENTION SOME THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND A COUPLE OF THE SREF PLUMES ARE SHOWING NEAR 1000 J/KG CAPE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

Q-G LIFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS DEEP AND STRONG WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AGAIN DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT MOVEMENT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
WILL TREND POP FORECAST TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW GIVEN
PREFERENCE MENTIONED ABOVE. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WOULD BE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WITH DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE DOWNSLOPE IS
MAXIMIZED. MEANWHILE...IN THE MOUNTAINS STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW
DEVELOPING ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND LIFT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY. STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES BUT POTENTIAL
IS CERTAINLY THERE. WITH REGARD TO FOOTHILL QPF AND POTENTIAL
RUNOFF...IF PERSISTENCE DUE TO ANY SLOWER STORM MOTION OR UPSLOPE
WOULD OCCUR THEN PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AT MOST
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000-7500 FEET. THAT WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIMIT ANY
RUNOFF EVEN IF STORM IS SLOWER/DEEPER THAN MOST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE.

FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A DEEP AND CLOSED UPPER TROUGH SEEMS
CONTENT TO SPIN OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED TAFS WITH WIND DIRECTIONS THIS MORNING. SEEMS AS
THOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DECREASING AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WEAK DIURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THIS MORNING. THEN
FORECASTING A LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AROUND OR SOUTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE WHICH WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS TO ANTICYCLONE THE WINDS AROUND TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION AROUND NOON TIME. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
SOME WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE LEESIDE LOW....HAVE ADDED A HINT OF THESE WINDS
TO THE BJC AND DEN TAFS...NOT TOO SURE IT WILL REACH APA IF THEY
DO DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. FORECASTING WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRICKY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT...THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241242
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
642 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF GRIDS AND BLENDED
INTO REST OF FORECAST.  NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

...SYSTEM HEADED EAST...

SHORTWAVE HEADED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE PLAINS EAST OF LA JUNTA...BUT QUICKLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OUT OF COLORADO BY DAYBREAK.

BEHIND IT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STILL QUITE WINDY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...BUT THEN CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PRESIDE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AND TONIGHT.  MAYBE A LITTLE COOL THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE WINDS CONTINUE...BUT A REALLY NICE AFTERNOON SHAPING UP.
GET OUT AND ENJOY IF YOU CAN. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. INCREASING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO
PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE WARM WITH 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON
SUNDAY. MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE STORM TRACK WITH THE NAM
AND ECMWF TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WHILE THE GFS
IS FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. THE STORM TRACK WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN WHAT AREAS SEE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW...AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...HAVE TRENDED
WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK.

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. ALREADY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS...GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30
KTS...TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. EXTREME
CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 11 KFT. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...WITH 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 50
KTS OR MORE POSSIBLE. WIND DIRECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY A FACTOR IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH
THE STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 7 TO 8
KFT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK THAT
THIS WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WOULD ALSO KEEP
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THIS STORM BARES WATCHING...AS IT MAY BRING WINTER
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH WHAT
TO DO WITH THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS STALL THE
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
MODEL DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
WITH 50S TO 60S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA JUNTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AND SHOULD BE ENTIRELY
OUT OF COLORADO BY AROUND DAYBREAK.  AT THAT TIME...CLEARING
SKIES...WHICH HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS...WITH VFR RETURNING TO ALL AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
546 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER UTAH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST. EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE SUNNY AND SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER.

TONIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BUT VALLEY INVERSIONS APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER BUT WARM ADVECTION LIMITS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SW WINDS STRENGTHEN
AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN UINTA MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SURFACE CONDITIONS
REMAIN VERY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 0.5 INCHES. COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT ON SATURDAY BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9000 FEET BUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO TIMBERLINE.

PROMINENT AMPLIFIED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO...WELL
MAYBE. MODELS STILL SHOW A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...PROBABLY
STRUGGLING WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
NOT WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR (IT LOOKS LIKELY FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA)...BUT HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.  DIGGING SYSTEMS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OR FOUR CORNERS AREA TYPICALLY MOVE SLOWER THAN WHAT
MODELS INDICATE...BUT INSTEAD THEY SHOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE
ACCELERATING ACROSS THE AREA (WHICH LIMITS THE RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL). WITH QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYERED
LIFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS NEAR SWRN COLORADO. BUT TOUGH TO QUANTIFY RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN NW FLOW WILL AFFECT NW
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NWRN SAN
JUANS. SLOW AND STEADY SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE OVER THE PARK/GORE
RANGES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DIMINISHED THREAT OF PCPN BUT COOL
WEATHER OR A SLOW WARMING TREND PREVAILS AS NORTH FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY IN COLORADO ZONES 290 AND 292. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF RH VALUES WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOWEST RH
VALUES WILL OCCUR IN THE PARADOX VALLEY/ ZONE 290 WHILE THE MONTROSE
AREA / ZONE 292 MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DRY. SO A FIRE WX WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR CO FIRE ZONE 290.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ205.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ011.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241049
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER UTAH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST. EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE SUNNY AND SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER.

TONIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BUT VALLEY INVERSIONS APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER BUT WARM ADVECTION LIMITS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SW WINDS STRENGTHEN
AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN UINTA MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SURFACE CONDITIONS
REMAIN VERY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 0.5 INCHES. COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT ON SATURDAY BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9000 FEET BUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO TIMBERLINE.

PROMINENT AMPLIFIED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO...WELL
MAYBE. MODELS STILL SHOW A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...PROBABLY
STRUGGLING WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
NOT WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR (IT LOOKS LIKELY FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA)...BUT HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.  DIGGING SYSTEMS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OR FOUR CORNERS AREA TYPICALLY MOVE SLOWER THAN WHAT
MODELS INDICATE...BUT INSTEAD THEY SHOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE
ACCELERATING ACROSS THE AREA (WHICH LIMITS THE RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL). WITH QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYERED
LIFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS NEAR SWRN COLORADO. BUT TOUGH TO QUANTIFY RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN NW FLOW WILL AFFECT NW
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NWRN SAN
JUANS. SLOW AND STEADY SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE OVER THE PARK/GORE
RANGES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DIMINISHED THREAT OF PCPN BUT COOL
WEATHER OR A SLOW WARMING TREND PREVAILS AS NORTH FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVER KASE AND KEGE THIS
EVENING BUT SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLEARING JUST TO THE WEST.
ANY CIGS THAT REMAIN WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW THEN THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WIND.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY IN COLORADO ZONES 290 AND 292. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF RH VALUES WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOWEST RH
VALUES WILL OCCUR IN THE PARADOX VALLEY/ ZONE 290 WHILE THE MONTROSE
AREA / ZONE 292 MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DRY. SO A FIRE WX WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR CO FIRE ZONE 290.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ205.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ011.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JOE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241022
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

...SYSTEM HEADED EAST...

SHORTWAVE HEADED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE PLAINS EAST OF LA JUNTA...BUT QUICKLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OUT OF COLORADO BY DAYBREAK.

BEHIND IT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STILL QUITE WINDY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...BUT THEN CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PRESIDE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AND TONIGHT.  MAYBE A LITTLE COOL THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE WINDS CONTINUE...BUT A REALLY NICE AFTERNOON SHAPING UP.
GET OUT AND ENJOY IF YOU CAN. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. INCREASING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO
PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE WARM WITH 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON
SUNDAY. MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE STORM TRACK WITH THE NAM
AND ECMWF TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WHILE THE GFS
IS FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. THE STORM TRACK WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN WHAT AREAS SEE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW...AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...HAVE TRENDED
WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK.

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. ALREADY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS...GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30
KTS...TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. EXTREME
CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 11 KFT. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...WITH 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 50
KTS OR MORE POSSIBLE. WIND DIRECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY A FACTOR IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH
THE STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 7 TO 8
KFT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK THAT
THIS WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WOULD ALSO KEEP
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THIS STORM BARES WATCHING...AS IT MAY BRING WINTER
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH WHAT
TO DO WITH THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS STALL THE
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
MODEL DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
WITH 50S TO 60S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA JUNTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AND SHOULD BE ENTIRELY
OUT OF COLORADO BY AROUND DAYBREAK.  AT THAT TIME...CLEARING
SKIES...WHICH HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS...WITH VFR RETURNING TO ALL AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240951
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND THE
APPROACHING RIDGE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATER IN THE DAY. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WHICH WILL
PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER AN ANTI-CYCLONE MAY
FORM AND CAUSE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
PARTS OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE
MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CERTAINLY SURROUNDS DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND THEN DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS COMING AROUND TO A MORE
CONSISTENT PATH...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRENDS STILL
ABOUND. AT THIS TIME...PER WATER VAPOR LOOP SEEMS LIKE THE ECMWF
HAS A HANDLE ON THE SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC
BETWEEN 140W AND 170E. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AMPLE BUCKLING OF THE
FLOW WITH A RATHER SHARP TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. IF
THE SHARPER TROUGH SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN WOULD PREFER THE
SLOWER AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF.

FOR FRIDAY....DEEP WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND WARM/RIDGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER BUT MOST OF THAT AREA SAW LIGHT/MODERATE
PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT AND GREEN-UP CONTINUES. ONLY MARGINAL
AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AGAIN.

BY SATURDAY...THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR SATURDAY CONSIDERING THE
WARM ADVECTION...STRONG LEE TROUGHING AND MIXING...AND ONLY SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE PLAINS WITH STRONG AND DRY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS.

WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE QUITE SUBSTANTIAL. ALMOST ALL MODELS SUGGEST A DRYLINE PUSHING
WELL EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MODELS USUALLY OVERDO
THIS EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRYLINE WHEN DEEP PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR
IN EASTERN COLORADO. AT THIS TIME...WHILE WE DONT THINK THE
DRYLINE WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS MODELS SUGGEST...IT WOULD BE HARD
TO GET THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO HOLD EVEN OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
WILL STILL MENTION SOME THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND A COUPLE OF THE SREF PLUMES ARE SHOWING NEAR 1000 J/KG CAPE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

Q-G LIFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS DEEP AND STRONG WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AGAIN DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT MOVEMENT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
WILL TREND POP FORECAST TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW GIVEN
PREFERENCE MENTIONED ABOVE. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WOULD BE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WITH DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE DOWNSLOPE IS
MAXIMIZED. MEANWHILE...IN THE MOUNTAINS STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW
DEVELOPING ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND LIFT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY. STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES BUT POTENTIAL
IS CERTAINLY THERE. WITH REGARD TO FOOTHILL QPF AND POTENTIAL
RUNOFF...IF PERSISTENCE DUE TO ANY SLOWER STORM MOTION OR UPSLOPE
WOULD OCCUR THEN PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AT MOST
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000-7500 FEET. THAT WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIMIT ANY
RUNOFF EVEN IF STORM IS SLOWER/DEEPER THAN MOST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE.

FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A DEEP AND CLOSED UPPER TROUGH SEEMS
CONTENT TO SPIN OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECASTING WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN FAVORS WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HOWEVER AN ANTICYCLONE MAY CAUSE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY
AT TIMES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...THROUGH
12Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 240951
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND THE
APPROACHING RIDGE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATER IN THE DAY. AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WHICH WILL
PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER AN ANTI-CYCLONE MAY
FORM AND CAUSE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
PARTS OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE
MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CERTAINLY SURROUNDS DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND THEN DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS COMING AROUND TO A MORE
CONSISTENT PATH...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRENDS STILL
ABOUND. AT THIS TIME...PER WATER VAPOR LOOP SEEMS LIKE THE ECMWF
HAS A HANDLE ON THE SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC
BETWEEN 140W AND 170E. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AMPLE BUCKLING OF THE
FLOW WITH A RATHER SHARP TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. IF
THE SHARPER TROUGH SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN WOULD PREFER THE
SLOWER AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF.

FOR FRIDAY....DEEP WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND WARM/RIDGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER BUT MOST OF THAT AREA SAW LIGHT/MODERATE
PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT AND GREEN-UP CONTINUES. ONLY MARGINAL
AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AGAIN.

BY SATURDAY...THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR SATURDAY CONSIDERING THE
WARM ADVECTION...STRONG LEE TROUGHING AND MIXING...AND ONLY SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE PLAINS WITH STRONG AND DRY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS.

WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE QUITE SUBSTANTIAL. ALMOST ALL MODELS SUGGEST A DRYLINE PUSHING
WELL EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MODELS USUALLY OVERDO
THIS EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRYLINE WHEN DEEP PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR
IN EASTERN COLORADO. AT THIS TIME...WHILE WE DONT THINK THE
DRYLINE WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS MODELS SUGGEST...IT WOULD BE HARD
TO GET THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO HOLD EVEN OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
WILL STILL MENTION SOME THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND A COUPLE OF THE SREF PLUMES ARE SHOWING NEAR 1000 J/KG CAPE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

Q-G LIFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS DEEP AND STRONG WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AGAIN DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT MOVEMENT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
WILL TREND POP FORECAST TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW GIVEN
PREFERENCE MENTIONED ABOVE. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WOULD BE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WITH DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE DOWNSLOPE IS
MAXIMIZED. MEANWHILE...IN THE MOUNTAINS STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW
DEVELOPING ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND LIFT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY. STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES BUT POTENTIAL
IS CERTAINLY THERE. WITH REGARD TO FOOTHILL QPF AND POTENTIAL
RUNOFF...IF PERSISTENCE DUE TO ANY SLOWER STORM MOTION OR UPSLOPE
WOULD OCCUR THEN PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AT MOST
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000-7500 FEET. THAT WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIMIT ANY
RUNOFF EVEN IF STORM IS SLOWER/DEEPER THAN MOST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE.

FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A DEEP AND CLOSED UPPER TROUGH SEEMS
CONTENT TO SPIN OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECASTING WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN FAVORS WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HOWEVER AN ANTICYCLONE MAY CAUSE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY
AT TIMES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...THROUGH
12Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240540
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED TO EXPIRE RED FLAG WARNING AND FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

POPS...TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES REMAINS PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL
ISSUES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY WELL-ABOVE LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES(AS NOTED BY 87F 3 PM TEMPERATURE
READING AT LAMAR) IN ADDITION TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS OVER MANY LOCATIONS.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT
SOME CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHERLY SURGE WHICH
IS NEARING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUPPORT IDEA OF GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS(SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR SEVERE TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS) FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS) AS NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES ACROSS.

IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MANY PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING...THEREFORE
WILL ALLOW EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING.  ALSO LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES.  A
SHORT-FUSE BLOWING DUST HIGHLIGHT MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF BLOWING DUST BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FOR THURSDAY...AS DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...HAVE DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STILL RUN NEAR LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE OF LONG ENOUGH
DURATION AND/OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. FRI AFTERNOON THE RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND THE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FRI
NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS PUSHING THE
UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA EASTWARD.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE FRI
NIGHT ALONG THE CONTDVD AS MSTR BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPR
TROF.  HOWEVER...MOST PCPN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT MORNING OR SAT
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR UT AND AZ...AND BRINGS DEEPER
MSTR TO THE CONTDVD.  WINDY CONDITIONS OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS
SAT AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THAT AREA.

AT THIS TIME...THE GFS HAS AN UPR LOW OVR EASTERN UT BY 00Z SUN...
AND THE ECMWF HAS THE UPR LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...OVER NWRN AZ.
THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW AND TROF CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE MODELS
THRU ABOUT SUN EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING WITH A FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN THE GFS.  THEN BY 00Z MON...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THE UPR LOW CENTER ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL CO BORDER AREA...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS IS JUST A LITTLER FARTHER NORTH. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...PCPN SPREADS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN MTNS AND
MAYBE THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH POSITION IN
THE EC...PCPN IS MORE WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS...THAN
IN THE GFS.  TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN ABOVE 0C AT 700MB UNTIL
LATE SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUN
THE GFS IS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH WL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN
SNOW LEVELS...BUT THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS TO THE MTNS.

THIS UPR LOW THEN MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON MONDAY...BUT THE EFFECTS
COULD LINGER AS THE EC IS SLOWER MOVING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD THAN
THE GFS AND IT KEEPS THE LOW OVR WRN KS THRU THE DAY MON...ALONG
WITH MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW OVR CO...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PCPN.
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO ERN KS BY MIDDAY MON WITH MAYBE
JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LINGERING OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.  THE
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW EVEN LINGERS OVR THE AREA ON TUE AND WED WITH
SOME CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES...AS THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVR
MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ATTM.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AT
COS AND PUB THROUGH 09Z WITH VFR CIGS CLEARING THROUGH THE REST
OF TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED AT COS AND PUB AFT 18Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING AFT 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 240451
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING
HOTCHKISS...DELTA...MONTROSE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT
MONTROSE ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN 12Z MET GUIDANCE AT 6 PM...AND THE
MET LOW FORECAST TEMPERATURE THERE TONIGHT IS 26F. VALLEY
INVERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP SO
WIND MACHINES SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE FOR GROWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE WHICH OCCURS AT 6:23 THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE GRAND VALLEY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING FOR THE MORNING LOW
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE FRUITA TO MACK
PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH RAPID CLEARING TO FOLLOW AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CO MTNS SHOULD
SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE IN THE FRUIT
GROWING AREAS OF THE GRAND VALLEY...THE NORTH FORK VALLEY AND
DELTA/MONTROSE AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR AND VALLEY INVERSIONS DEVELOP.
LOW TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35F AND THEN
ONLY FOR A FEW HRS NEAR SUNRISE ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS AROUND
MONTROSE...FRUITA AND PERHAPS PAONIA MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S. BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY HARD
FREEZE...WILL NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR ZONES 6 AND 11 TONIGHT
THOUGH ORCHARDISTS SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURE MONITORING EQUIPMENT
OPERATIVE. BELIEVE DRAINAGE/CANYON WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT THE PALISADE AREA ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN
FILTERING IN BY SUNRISE PER THE GFS MODEL.

DRY...WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT
NEAR THE WY BORDER...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS WINDY THAT TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND
TRANSPORTS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO SKYROCKET
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

A TWO-PART LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL REACH EASTERN UTAH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION EAST INTO WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ERRATIC WINDS...RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS...AND SNOW ACCUMULATION AT ABOUT 9000 FEET AND HIGHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS FRONTOGENESIS PLOT SHOWS DECENT ENERGY ACROSS THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER PULSE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY AND
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 5500 FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THESE MAIN PRECIPITATION
PASSAGES IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN FLUCTUATING FROM ACTUAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...BUT
DEFINITELY LOOKING LIKE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WET
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY ON THAT SATURDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING SOLUTION. THE OTHER BIG
CHALLENGE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL.

INCONSISTENCY ON WHEN THIS STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHCENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOOKS LIKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION BUT CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY JUST ALONG THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE REGION WILL STAY IN
ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY OR IF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVER KASE AND KEGE THIS
EVENING BUT SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLEARING JUST TO THE WEST.
ANY CIGS THAT REMAIN WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW THEN THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WIND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO. A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR CO FIRE ZONE 290...BUT KEPT OUT CO ZONE 292 FOR NOW AS
CRITICAL LEVEL COVERAGE IS NOT GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE ZONE
AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WATCH AS
POTENTIAL WIND EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ205.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ011.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JAM




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240223
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
823 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED TO EXPIRE RED FLAG WARNING AND FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

POPS...TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES REMAINS PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL
ISSUES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY WELL-ABOVE LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES(AS NOTED BY 87F 3 PM TEMPERATURE
READING AT LAMAR) IN ADDITION TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS OVER MANY LOCATIONS.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT
SOME CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHERLY SURGE WHICH
IS NEARING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUPPORT IDEA OF GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS(SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR SEVERE TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS) FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS) AS NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES ACROSS.

IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MANY PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING...THEREFORE
WILL ALLOW EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING.  ALSO LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES.  A
SHORT-FUSE BLOWING DUST HIGHLIGHT MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF BLOWING DUST BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FOR THURSDAY...AS DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...HAVE DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STILL RUN NEAR LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE OF LONG ENOUGH
DURATION AND/OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. FRI AFTERNOON THE RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND THE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FRI
NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS PUSHING THE
UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA EASTWARD.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE FRI
NIGHT ALONG THE CONTDVD AS MSTR BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPR
TROF.  HOWEVER...MOST PCPN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT MORNING OR SAT
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR UT AND AZ...AND BRINGS DEEPER
MSTR TO THE CONTDVD.  WINDY CONDITIONS OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS
SAT AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THAT AREA.

AT THIS TIME...THE GFS HAS AN UPR LOW OVR EASTERN UT BY 00Z SUN...
AND THE ECMWF HAS THE UPR LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...OVER NWRN AZ.
THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW AND TROF CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE MODELS
THRU ABOUT SUN EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING WITH A FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN THE GFS.  THEN BY 00Z MON...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THE UPR LOW CENTER ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL CO BORDER AREA...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS IS JUST A LITTLER FARTHER NORTH. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...PCPN SPREADS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN MTNS AND
MAYBE THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH POSITION IN
THE EC...PCPN IS MORE WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS...THAN
IN THE GFS.  TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN ABOVE 0C AT 700MB UNTIL
LATE SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUN
THE GFS IS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH WL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN
SNOW LEVELS...BUT THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS TO THE MTNS.

THIS UPR LOW THEN MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON MONDAY...BUT THE EFFECTS
COULD LINGER AS THE EC IS SLOWER MOVING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD THAN
THE GFS AND IT KEEPS THE LOW OVR WRN KS THRU THE DAY MON...ALONG
WITH MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW OVR CO...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PCPN.
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO ERN KS BY MIDDAY MON WITH MAYBE
JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LINGERING OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.  THE
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW EVEN LINGERS OVR THE AREA ON TUE AND WED WITH
SOME CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES...AS THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVR
MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS(CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF VERY
GUSTY WINDS) WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240107
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
707 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

NEED TO UP POPS OVER THE MOST OF PLAINS AS PER REAL DATA. THERE IS
A BIT OF LIGHTNING HERE AND THERE. MOST OF THE RAIN IS LIGHT TO
MODERATE. FAIRLY DECENT NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
COVERING MOST OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER FOOTHILLS RIGHT NOW.
WATER VAPOR PICTURES ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO BORDER RIGHT NOW. THERE IS SOME LIGHT SNOW
AROUND THE DIVIDE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS STILL OVER
WESTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT
STILL SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PER PLATTEVILLE PROFILER.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS
TIME...BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BEEN THE BIG HEADACHE IN
THE DENVER AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PUSH AN EASTERLY BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS DENVER. SOME SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. A BIT
LIGHTNING ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES INTO
EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING....EXITING THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING. OVERALL
COVERAGE STILL LIMITED. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BEGIN PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
EVENING IN CASE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF
DENVER AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY AS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF AROUND
100-200 J/KG IN THIS REGION WITH MINIMAL CIN. LOW LEVELS STILL
FAIRLY DRY...SO MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT MEAGER RAINFALL. SOME STORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. WINDS TO BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS PLAINS THIS EVENING...
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE
GOING NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...TROUGH WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AT THAT TIME. ON
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.
WINDS TO BE A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND ALONG THE WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA BORDERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES HAVE CONTINUED AT THE AIRPORT ALONG WITH A
BROAD AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTING
AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ANYWAY. AS THE RAIN CONTINUES
BECOMING MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER.
THEY COULD GET DOWN TO 020 BKN THROUGH 03Z.  WILL AMEND
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER/RJK
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 240107
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
707 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

NEED TO UP POPS OVER THE MOST OF PLAINS AS PER REAL DATA. THERE IS
A BIT OF LIGHTNING HERE AND THERE. MOST OF THE RAIN IS LIGHT TO
MODERATE. FAIRLY DECENT NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
COVERING MOST OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER FOOTHILLS RIGHT NOW.
WATER VAPOR PICTURES ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO BORDER RIGHT NOW. THERE IS SOME LIGHT SNOW
AROUND THE DIVIDE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS STILL OVER
WESTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT
STILL SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PER PLATTEVILLE PROFILER.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS
TIME...BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BEEN THE BIG HEADACHE IN
THE DENVER AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PUSH AN EASTERLY BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS DENVER. SOME SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. A BIT
LIGHTNING ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES INTO
EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING....EXITING THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING. OVERALL
COVERAGE STILL LIMITED. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BEGIN PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
EVENING IN CASE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF
DENVER AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY AS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF AROUND
100-200 J/KG IN THIS REGION WITH MINIMAL CIN. LOW LEVELS STILL
FAIRLY DRY...SO MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT MEAGER RAINFALL. SOME STORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. WINDS TO BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS PLAINS THIS EVENING...
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE
GOING NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...TROUGH WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AT THAT TIME. ON
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.
WINDS TO BE A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND ALONG THE WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA BORDERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES HAVE CONTINUED AT THE AIRPORT ALONG WITH A
BROAD AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTING
AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ANYWAY. AS THE RAIN CONTINUES
BECOMING MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER.
THEY COULD GET DOWN TO 020 BKN THROUGH 03Z.  WILL AMEND
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER/RJK
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 240044
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
644 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING
HOTCHKISS...DELTA...MONTROSE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT
MONTROSE ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN 12Z MET GUIDANCE AT 6 PM...AND THE
MET LOW FORECAST TEMPERATURE THERE TONIGHT IS 26F. VALLEY
INVERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP SO
WIND MACHINES SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE FOR GROWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE WHICH OCCURS AT 6:23 THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE GRAND VALLEY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING FOR THE MORNING LOW
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE FRUITA TO MACK
PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH RAPID CLEARING TO FOLLOW AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CO MTNS SHOULD
SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE IN THE FRUIT
GROWING AREAS OF THE GRAND VALLEY...THE NORTH FORK VALLEY AND
DELTA/MONTROSE AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR AND VALLEY INVERSIONS DEVELOP.
LOW TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35F AND THEN
ONLY FOR A FEW HRS NEAR SUNRISE ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS AROUND
MONTROSE...FRUITA AND PERHAPS PAONIA MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S. BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY HARD
FREEZE...WILL NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR ZONES 6 AND 11 TONIGHT
THOUGH ORCHARDISTS SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURE MONITORING EQUIPMENT
OPERATIVE. BELIEVE DRAINAGE/CANYON WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT THE PALISADE AREA ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN
FILTERING IN BY SUNRISE PER THE GFS MODEL.

DRY...WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT
NEAR THE WY BORDER...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS WINDY THAT TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND
TRANSPORTS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO SKYROCKET
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

A TWO-PART LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL REACH EASTERN UTAH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION EAST INTO WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ERRATIC WINDS...RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS...AND SNOW ACCUMULATION AT ABOUT 9000 FEET AND HIGHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS FRONTOGENESIS PLOT SHOWS DECENT ENERGY ACROSS THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER PULSE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY AND
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 5500 FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THESE MAIN PRECIPITATION
PASSAGES IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN FLUCTUATING FROM ACTUAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...BUT
DEFINITELY LOOKING LIKE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WET
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY ON THAT SATURDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING SOLUTION. THE OTHER BIG
CHALLENGE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL.

INCONSISTENCY ON WHEN THIS STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHCENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOOKS LIKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION BUT CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY JUST ALONG THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE REGION WILL STAY IN
ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY OR IF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THU MORNING.
NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WRN NE THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS PRESENT TODAY...THOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. ONE FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY ALSO TRIGGER ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS OVER THE CO MTNS IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX...KASE...KEGE.
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO. A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR CO FIRE ZONE 290...BUT KEPT OUT CO ZONE 292 FOR NOW AS
CRITICAL LEVEL COVERAGE IS NOT GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE ZONE
AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WATCH AS
POTENTIAL WIND EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ205.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ011.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...JAM




000
FXUS65 KBOU 232150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT
STILL SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PER PLATTEVILLE PROFILER.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS
TIME...BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BEEN THE BIG HEADACHE IN
THE DENVER AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PUSH AN EASTERLY BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS DENVER. SOME SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. A BIT
LIGHTNING ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES INTO
EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING....EXITING THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING. OVERALL
COVERAGE STILL LIMITED. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BEGIN PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
EVENING IN CASE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF
DENVER AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY AS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF AROUND
100-200 J/KG IN THIS REGION WITH MINIMAL CIN. LOW LEVELS STILL
FAIRLY DRY...SO MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT MEAGER RAINFALL. SOME STORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. WINDS TO BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS PLAINS THIS EVENING...
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE
GOING NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...TROUGH WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AT THAT TIME. ON
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.
WINDS TO BE A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND ALONG THE WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA BORDERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES MODERATED THAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE ANTICIPATED SPRING STORM THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS
DIFFERENCES IN ALL THE MODELS. LAST NIGHT ALL THE MODELS TOOK A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER TODAYS NEW MODELS HAVE
TRENDED IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS....THE GFS TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY
ROUTE AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS GONE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SLOWED DOWN. OVERALL THOUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING TO ABOUT 9500FT. DEPENDING ON WHICH TRACK THE
SYSTEM TAKES...IF THE GFS COMES TRUE THEN SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF COLORADO. BUT IF ITS A
SLOWER SYSTEM THEN WE MAY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. SATURDAY NIGHT IS
WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS...TO 6000 TO 7000 FEET. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
THE SYSTEM TAKES WILL DEPEND ON WHAT OCCURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND PLAINS AS SOME UPSLOPE IS NEEDED. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FOR THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHERE IF 700 MB FLOW KEPT W-SW THEN
THEY WOULD DOWNSLOPE OUT AND BE DRY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INTENDED TRACK FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLAINS
FORECAST. THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW...EVEN HEAVY
AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MODELS SHOWING
SEVERAL INCHES...EVEN UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY FALL MOSTLY SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE STATE...STILL DO NOT KNOW WHERE THOUGH.

NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN
THE LOW MOVES EAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH TO ROUND OUT ON THE
BACKSIDE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURGE HAD INDEED PUSHED INTO THE DENVER AREA...WITH MAINLY
EASTERLY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSSTHE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
DENVER AS WELL AS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER. STILL
EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DENVER AREA... THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
OUTFLOW WINDS COULD AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION TO MOVE WELL EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 10000 FEET. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE
DRAINAGE MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL THURSDAY...MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO
CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE
LOW TEENS. HUMIDITY READINGS TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
DECREASING WINDS SO...WILL NOT EXTEND RED FLAG WARNING PAST 8 PM.
CONDITIONS TO BE DRIER WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ACROSS LOGAN AND SEDGWICK
COUNTIES COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME...THIS LOOKS SHORT LIVED AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY NORTH TO THE WYOMING BORDER. HUMIDITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH
LOWS BETWEEN 14-18%. THEREFORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
INCREASED. DUE TO THE MARGINAL HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL RAIN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L/KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 232150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT
STILL SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PER PLATTEVILLE PROFILER.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS
TIME...BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BEEN THE BIG HEADACHE IN
THE DENVER AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PUSH AN EASTERLY BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS DENVER. SOME SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. A BIT
LIGHTNING ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES INTO
EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING....EXITING THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING. OVERALL
COVERAGE STILL LIMITED. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BEGIN PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
EVENING IN CASE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF
DENVER AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY AS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF AROUND
100-200 J/KG IN THIS REGION WITH MINIMAL CIN. LOW LEVELS STILL
FAIRLY DRY...SO MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT MEAGER RAINFALL. SOME STORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. WINDS TO BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS PLAINS THIS EVENING...
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE
GOING NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...TROUGH WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AT THAT TIME. ON
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.
WINDS TO BE A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND ALONG THE WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA BORDERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES MODERATED THAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE ANTICIPATED SPRING STORM THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS
DIFFERENCES IN ALL THE MODELS. LAST NIGHT ALL THE MODELS TOOK A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER TODAYS NEW MODELS HAVE
TRENDED IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS....THE GFS TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY
ROUTE AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS GONE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SLOWED DOWN. OVERALL THOUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING TO ABOUT 9500FT. DEPENDING ON WHICH TRACK THE
SYSTEM TAKES...IF THE GFS COMES TRUE THEN SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF COLORADO. BUT IF ITS A
SLOWER SYSTEM THEN WE MAY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. SATURDAY NIGHT IS
WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS...TO 6000 TO 7000 FEET. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
THE SYSTEM TAKES WILL DEPEND ON WHAT OCCURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND PLAINS AS SOME UPSLOPE IS NEEDED. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FOR THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHERE IF 700 MB FLOW KEPT W-SW THEN
THEY WOULD DOWNSLOPE OUT AND BE DRY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INTENDED TRACK FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLAINS
FORECAST. THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW...EVEN HEAVY
AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MODELS SHOWING
SEVERAL INCHES...EVEN UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY FALL MOSTLY SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE STATE...STILL DO NOT KNOW WHERE THOUGH.

NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN
THE LOW MOVES EAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH TO ROUND OUT ON THE
BACKSIDE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURGE HAD INDEED PUSHED INTO THE DENVER AREA...WITH MAINLY
EASTERLY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSSTHE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
DENVER AS WELL AS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER. STILL
EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DENVER AREA... THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
OUTFLOW WINDS COULD AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION TO MOVE WELL EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 10000 FEET. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE
DRAINAGE MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL THURSDAY...MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO
CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE
LOW TEENS. HUMIDITY READINGS TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
DECREASING WINDS SO...WILL NOT EXTEND RED FLAG WARNING PAST 8 PM.
CONDITIONS TO BE DRIER WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ACROSS LOGAN AND SEDGWICK
COUNTIES COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME...THIS LOOKS SHORT LIVED AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY NORTH TO THE WYOMING BORDER. HUMIDITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH
LOWS BETWEEN 14-18%. THEREFORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
INCREASED. DUE TO THE MARGINAL HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL RAIN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L/KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 232150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT
STILL SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PER PLATTEVILLE PROFILER.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS
TIME...BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BEEN THE BIG HEADACHE IN
THE DENVER AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PUSH AN EASTERLY BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS DENVER. SOME SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. A BIT
LIGHTNING ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES INTO
EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING....EXITING THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING. OVERALL
COVERAGE STILL LIMITED. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BEGIN PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
EVENING IN CASE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF
DENVER AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY AS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF AROUND
100-200 J/KG IN THIS REGION WITH MINIMAL CIN. LOW LEVELS STILL
FAIRLY DRY...SO MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT MEAGER RAINFALL. SOME STORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. WINDS TO BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS PLAINS THIS EVENING...
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE
GOING NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...TROUGH WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AT THAT TIME. ON
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.
WINDS TO BE A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND ALONG THE WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA BORDERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES MODERATED THAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE ANTICIPATED SPRING STORM THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS
DIFFERENCES IN ALL THE MODELS. LAST NIGHT ALL THE MODELS TOOK A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER TODAYS NEW MODELS HAVE
TRENDED IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS....THE GFS TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY
ROUTE AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS GONE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SLOWED DOWN. OVERALL THOUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING TO ABOUT 9500FT. DEPENDING ON WHICH TRACK THE
SYSTEM TAKES...IF THE GFS COMES TRUE THEN SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF COLORADO. BUT IF ITS A
SLOWER SYSTEM THEN WE MAY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. SATURDAY NIGHT IS
WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS...TO 6000 TO 7000 FEET. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
THE SYSTEM TAKES WILL DEPEND ON WHAT OCCURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND PLAINS AS SOME UPSLOPE IS NEEDED. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FOR THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHERE IF 700 MB FLOW KEPT W-SW THEN
THEY WOULD DOWNSLOPE OUT AND BE DRY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INTENDED TRACK FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLAINS
FORECAST. THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW...EVEN HEAVY
AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MODELS SHOWING
SEVERAL INCHES...EVEN UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY FALL MOSTLY SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE STATE...STILL DO NOT KNOW WHERE THOUGH.

NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN
THE LOW MOVES EAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH TO ROUND OUT ON THE
BACKSIDE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURGE HAD INDEED PUSHED INTO THE DENVER AREA...WITH MAINLY
EASTERLY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSSTHE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
DENVER AS WELL AS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER. STILL
EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DENVER AREA... THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
OUTFLOW WINDS COULD AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION TO MOVE WELL EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 10000 FEET. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE
DRAINAGE MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL THURSDAY...MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO
CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE
LOW TEENS. HUMIDITY READINGS TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
DECREASING WINDS SO...WILL NOT EXTEND RED FLAG WARNING PAST 8 PM.
CONDITIONS TO BE DRIER WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ACROSS LOGAN AND SEDGWICK
COUNTIES COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME...THIS LOOKS SHORT LIVED AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY NORTH TO THE WYOMING BORDER. HUMIDITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH
LOWS BETWEEN 14-18%. THEREFORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
INCREASED. DUE TO THE MARGINAL HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL RAIN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L/KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 232150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT
STILL SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PER PLATTEVILLE PROFILER.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS
TIME...BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BEEN THE BIG HEADACHE IN
THE DENVER AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PUSH AN EASTERLY BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS DENVER. SOME SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. A BIT
LIGHTNING ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES INTO
EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING....EXITING THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING. OVERALL
COVERAGE STILL LIMITED. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BEGIN PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
EVENING IN CASE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF
DENVER AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY AS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF AROUND
100-200 J/KG IN THIS REGION WITH MINIMAL CIN. LOW LEVELS STILL
FAIRLY DRY...SO MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT MEAGER RAINFALL. SOME STORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. WINDS TO BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS PLAINS THIS EVENING...
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE
GOING NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...TROUGH WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AT THAT TIME. ON
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.
WINDS TO BE A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND ALONG THE WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA BORDERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES MODERATED THAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE ANTICIPATED SPRING STORM THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS
DIFFERENCES IN ALL THE MODELS. LAST NIGHT ALL THE MODELS TOOK A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER TODAYS NEW MODELS HAVE
TRENDED IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS....THE GFS TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY
ROUTE AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS GONE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SLOWED DOWN. OVERALL THOUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING TO ABOUT 9500FT. DEPENDING ON WHICH TRACK THE
SYSTEM TAKES...IF THE GFS COMES TRUE THEN SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF COLORADO. BUT IF ITS A
SLOWER SYSTEM THEN WE MAY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. SATURDAY NIGHT IS
WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS...TO 6000 TO 7000 FEET. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
THE SYSTEM TAKES WILL DEPEND ON WHAT OCCURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND PLAINS AS SOME UPSLOPE IS NEEDED. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FOR THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHERE IF 700 MB FLOW KEPT W-SW THEN
THEY WOULD DOWNSLOPE OUT AND BE DRY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INTENDED TRACK FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLAINS
FORECAST. THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW...EVEN HEAVY
AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MODELS SHOWING
SEVERAL INCHES...EVEN UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY FALL MOSTLY SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE STATE...STILL DO NOT KNOW WHERE THOUGH.

NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN
THE LOW MOVES EAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH TO ROUND OUT ON THE
BACKSIDE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURGE HAD INDEED PUSHED INTO THE DENVER AREA...WITH MAINLY
EASTERLY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSSTHE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
DENVER AS WELL AS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER. STILL
EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DENVER AREA... THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
OUTFLOW WINDS COULD AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION TO MOVE WELL EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 10000 FEET. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE
DRAINAGE MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL THURSDAY...MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO
CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE
LOW TEENS. HUMIDITY READINGS TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
DECREASING WINDS SO...WILL NOT EXTEND RED FLAG WARNING PAST 8 PM.
CONDITIONS TO BE DRIER WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ACROSS LOGAN AND SEDGWICK
COUNTIES COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME...THIS LOOKS SHORT LIVED AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY NORTH TO THE WYOMING BORDER. HUMIDITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH
LOWS BETWEEN 14-18%. THEREFORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
INCREASED. DUE TO THE MARGINAL HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL RAIN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L/KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232137
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

POPS...TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES REMAINS PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL
ISSUES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY WELL-ABOVE LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES(AS NOTED BY 87F 3 PM TEMPERATURE
READING AT LAMAR) IN ADDITION TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS OVER MANY LOCATIONS.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT
SOME CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHERLY SURGE WHICH
IS NEARING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUPPORT IDEA OF GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS(SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR SEVERE TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS) FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS) AS NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES ACROSS.

IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MANY PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING...THEREFORE
WILL ALLOW EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING.  ALSO LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES.  A
SHORT-FUSE BLOWING DUST HIGHLIGHT MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF BLOWING DUST BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FOR THURSDAY...AS DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...HAVE DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STILL RUN NEAR LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE OF LONG ENOUGH
DURATION AND/OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. FRI AFTERNOON THE RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND THE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FRI
NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS PUSHING THE
UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA EASTWARD.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE FRI
NIGHT ALONG THE CONTDVD AS MSTR BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPR
TROF.  HOWEVER...MOST PCPN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT MORNING OR SAT
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR UT AND AZ...AND BRINGS DEEPER
MSTR TO THE CONTDVD.  WINDY CONDITIONS OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS
SAT AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THAT AREA.

AT THIS TIME...THE GFS HAS AN UPR LOW OVR EASTERN UT BY 00Z SUN...
AND THE ECMWF HAS THE UPR LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...OVER NWRN AZ.
THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW AND TROF CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE MODELS
THRU ABOUT SUN EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING WITH A FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN THE GFS.  THEN BY 00Z MON...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THE UPR LOW CENTER ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL CO BORDER AREA...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS IS JUST A LITTLER FARTHER NORTH. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...PCPN SPREADS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN MTNS AND
MAYBE THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH POSITION IN
THE EC...PCPN IS MORE WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS...THAN
IN THE GFS.  TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN ABOVE 0C AT 700MB UNTIL
LATE SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUN
THE GFS IS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH WL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN
SNOW LEVELS...BUT THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS TO THE MTNS.

THIS UPR LOW THEN MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON MONDAY...BUT THE EFFECTS
COULD LINGER AS THE EC IS SLOWER MOVING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD THAN
THE GFS AND IT KEEPS THE LOW OVR WRN KS THRU THE DAY MON...ALONG
WITH MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW OVR CO...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PCPN.
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO ERN KS BY MIDDAY MON WITH MAYBE
JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LINGERING OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.  THE
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW EVEN LINGERS OVR THE AREA ON TUE AND WED WITH
SOME CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES...AS THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVR
MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS(CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF VERY
GUSTY WINDS) WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232041
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
241 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH RAPID CLEARING TO FOLLOW AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CO MTNS SHOULD SHOULD
ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE IN THE FRUIT
GROWING AREAS OF THE GRAND VALLEY...THE NORTH FORK VALLEY AND
DELTA/MONTROSE AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR AND VALLEY INVERSIONS DEVELOP.
LOW TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35F AND THEN
ONLY FOR A FEW HRS NEAR SUNRISE ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS AROUND
MONTROSE...FRUITA AND PERHAPS PAONIA MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S. BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY HARD
FREEZE...WILL NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR ZONES 6 AND 11 TONIGHT
THOUGH ORCHARDISTS SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURE MONITORING EQUIPMENT
OPERATIVE. BELIEVE DRAINAGE/CANYON WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT THE PALISADE AREA ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN
FILTERING IN BY SUNRISE PER THE GFS MODEL.

DRY...WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT
NEAR THE WY BORDER...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS WINDY THAT TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND
TRANSPORTS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO SKYROCKET
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

A TWO-PART LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL REACH EASTERN UTAH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION EAST INTO WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ERRATIC WINDS...RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS...AND SNOW ACCUMULATION AT ABOUT 9000 FEET AND HIGHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS FRONTOGENESIS PLOT SHOWS DECENT ENERGY ACROSS THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER PULSE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY AND
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 5500 FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THESE MAIN PRECIPITATION
PASSAGES IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN FLUCTUATING FROM ACTUAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...BUT
DEFINITELY LOOKING LIKE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WET
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY ON THAT SATURDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING SOLUTION. THE OTHER BIG
CHALLENGE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL.

INCONSISTENCY ON WHEN THIS STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHCENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOOKS LIKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION BUT CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY JUST ALONG THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE REGION WILL STAY IN
ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY OR IF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THU MORNING.
NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WRN NE THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS PRESENT TODAY...THOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. ONE FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY ALSO TRIGGER ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS OVER THE CO MTNS IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX...KASE...KEGE.
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO. A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR CO FIRE ZONE 290...BUT KEPT OUT CO ZONE 292 FOR NOW AS
CRITICAL LEVEL COVERAGE IS NOT GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE ZONE
AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WATCH AS
POTENTIAL WIND EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11AM FRIDAY THROUGH 7PM FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ205.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...JAM




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231855
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1255 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND FORECAST TRENDS...HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO ADD THE SAN LUIS VALLEY(FIRE WEATHER ZONE
225) TO THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT EXPIRES AT 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED METEOROLOGICAL GRIDS AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FOR THE STATE. AS OF 330 AM...THESE WINDS HAVE
TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC AS BREEZY S-SW WINDS...HELPING TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA SOMEWHAT WARM WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...50S
FOR THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA AND EVEN 50 F IN ALAMOSA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST SINCE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MORE SO THE
CENTRAL MTS...THEN AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EVE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IS UNDER THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO STRONGER SW WINDS AND HOT DRY CONDITIONS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WARNING AREA SHUTTING DOWN FIRST AS THE FRONT
RACES SOUTH. SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH REGARDS TO THE WALDO
BURN SCAR. DO NOT THINK THAT THE THREAT IS GREAT TODAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

...POTENTIAL STORM THIS WEEKEND...

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
COLORADO FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREA. AS PROJECTED NOW...THE SYSTEM WOULD
APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND INCREASING THE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
THEN...SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER...SPREADING SNOW TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKE TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND IT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE
PLAINS...STRENGTHENS...AND GETS ORGANIZED...THE WINDS WOULD
REALLY CRANK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
MODERATELY COLD ALOFT...A LOT OF WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO REALLY NOT A VERY COLD SYSTEM
AS IT COMES ACROSS. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6K BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL.
SO...PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...THAT WOULD GO FOR
SOUTHERN PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS...IT WOULD MAINLY BE WIND DRIVEN RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD PROBABLY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS
ALSO SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY...IN THE FORM
OF WIND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO IS A SOMEWHAT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK MUCH
FARTHER NORTH...ONE LESS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...JUST
COMING IN...HAS INTRODUCED MORE UNCERTAINTY...NOW TAKING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AGAIN...LEANING TOWARD LESS FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. NEED TO BE
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE WE CAN BUILD ANY KIND OF REAL CONFIDENCE.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TAF SITES KALS...KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD EXPERIENCE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FOR THE STATE. AS OF 330 AM...THESE WINDS HAVE
TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC AS BREEZY S-SW WINDS...HELPING TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA SOMEWHAT WARM WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...50S
FOR THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA AND EVEN 50 F IN ALAMOSA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST SINCE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MORE SO THE
CENTRAL MTS...THEN AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EVE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IS UNDER THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO STRONGER SW WINDS AND HOT DRY CONDITIONS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WARNING AREA SHUTTING DOWN FIRST AS THE FRONT
RACES SOUTH. SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH REGARDS TO THE WALDO
BURN SCAR. DO NOT THINK THAT THE THREAT IS GREAT TODAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

...POTENTIAL STORM THIS WEEKEND...

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
COLORADO FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREA. AS PROJECTED NOW...THE SYSTEM WOULD
APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND INCREASING THE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
THEN...SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER...SPREADING SNOW TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKE TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND IT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE
PLAINS...STRENGTHENS...AND GETS ORGANIZED...THE WINDS WOULD
REALLY CRANK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
MODERATELY COLD ALOFT...A LOT OF WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO REALLY NOT A VERY COLD SYSTEM
AS IT COMES ACROSS. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6K BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL.
SO...PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...THAT WOULD GO FOR
SOUTHERN PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS...IT WOULD MAINLY BE WIND DRIVEN RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD PROBABLY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS
ALSO SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY...IN THE FORM
OF WIND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO IS A SOMEWHAT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK MUCH
FARTHER NORTH...ONE LESS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...JUST
COMING IN...HAS INTRODUCED MORE UNCERTAINTY...NOW TAKING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AGAIN...LEANING TOWARD LESS FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. NEED TO BE
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE WE CAN BUILD ANY KIND OF REAL CONFIDENCE.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TAF SITES KALS...KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD EXPERIENCE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231720
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FOR THE STATE. AS OF 330 AM...THESE WINDS HAVE
TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC AS BREEZY S-SW WINDS...HELPING TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA SOMEWHAT WARM WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...50S
FOR THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA AND EVEN 50 F IN ALAMOSA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST SINCE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MORE SO THE
CENTRAL MTS...THEN AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EVE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IS UNDER THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO STRONGER SW WINDS AND HOT DRY CONDITIONS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WARNING AREA SHUTTING DOWN FIRST AS THE FRONT
RACES SOUTH. SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH REGARDS TO THE WALDO
BURN SCAR. DO NOT THINK THAT THE THREAT IS GREAT TODAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

...POTENTIAL STORM THIS WEEKEND...

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
COLORADO FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREA. AS PROJECTED NOW...THE SYSTEM WOULD
APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND INCREASING THE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
THEN...SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER...SPREADING SNOW TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKE TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND IT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE
PLAINS...STRENGTHENS...AND GETS ORGANIZED...THE WINDS WOULD
REALLY CRANK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
MODERATELY COLD ALOFT...A LOT OF WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO REALLY NOT A VERY COLD SYSTEM
AS IT COMES ACROSS. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6K BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL.
SO...PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...THAT WOULD GO FOR
SOUTHERN PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS...IT WOULD MAINLY BE WIND DRIVEN RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD PROBABLY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS
ALSO SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY...IN THE FORM
OF WIND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO IS A SOMEWHAT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK MUCH
FARTHER NORTH...ONE LESS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...JUST
COMING IN...HAS INTRODUCED MORE UNCERTAINTY...NOW TAKING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AGAIN...LEANING TOWARD LESS FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. NEED TO BE
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE WE CAN BUILD ANY KIND OF REAL CONFIDENCE.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

KALS...KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD EXPERIENCE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231720 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1119 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. INCREASING
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY DENVER AND LIMON NORTHWARD WHILE
STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER PASSES. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE
NORTHERLY BY THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO
BE EAST OF A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE CAPES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 100-200 J/KG. NOT ALOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SO SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. RADAR DOES SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. APPEARS TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
DIA WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON..BEFORE GOING
COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO DRAINAGE THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF
DENVER. COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ENHANCING THE
SURFACE WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF
DENVER AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL 20Z-02Z. CLEARING SKIES
WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS WHICH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231720 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1119 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. INCREASING
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY DENVER AND LIMON NORTHWARD WHILE
STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER PASSES. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE
NORTHERLY BY THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO
BE EAST OF A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE CAPES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 100-200 J/KG. NOT ALOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SO SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. RADAR DOES SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. APPEARS TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
DIA WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON..BEFORE GOING
COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO DRAINAGE THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF
DENVER. COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ENHANCING THE
SURFACE WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF
DENVER AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL 20Z-02Z. CLEARING SKIES
WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS WHICH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231708 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1107 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. INCREASING
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY DENVER AND LIMON NORTHWARD WHILE
STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER PASSES. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE
NORTHERLY BY THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO
BE EAST OF A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE CAPES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 100-200 J/KG. NOT ALOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SO SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. RADAR DOES SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. APPEARS TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
DIA WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER.
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ENHANCING THE SURFACE
WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF DENVER
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL 20Z-02Z. CLEARING SKIES
WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS WHICH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231708 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1107 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. INCREASING
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY DENVER AND LIMON NORTHWARD WHILE
STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER PASSES. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE
NORTHERLY BY THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO
BE EAST OF A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE CAPES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 100-200 J/KG. NOT ALOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SO SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. RADAR DOES SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. APPEARS TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
DIA WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER.
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ENHANCING THE SURFACE
WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF DENVER
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL 20Z-02Z. CLEARING SKIES
WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS WHICH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231708 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1107 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. INCREASING
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY DENVER AND LIMON NORTHWARD WHILE
STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER PASSES. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE
NORTHERLY BY THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO
BE EAST OF A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE CAPES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 100-200 J/KG. NOT ALOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SO SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. RADAR DOES SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. APPEARS TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
DIA WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER.
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ENHANCING THE SURFACE
WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF DENVER
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL 20Z-02Z. CLEARING SKIES
WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS WHICH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231708 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1107 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. INCREASING
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY DENVER AND LIMON NORTHWARD WHILE
STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER PASSES. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE
NORTHERLY BY THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO
BE EAST OF A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE CAPES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 100-200 J/KG. NOT ALOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SO SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. RADAR DOES SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. APPEARS TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
DIA WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER.
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ENHANCING THE SURFACE
WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF DENVER
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL 20Z-02Z. CLEARING SKIES
WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS WHICH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231652
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. INCREASING
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY DENVER AND LIMON NORTHWARD WHILE
STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CAPE VALUES LIMITED...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER DUE TO COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LIFT WITH TROUGH. LOOKS
TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE HIGHER PASSES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE NORTHERLY BY THE
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE EAST OF
A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE CAPES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100-200
J/KG. NOT ALOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. RADAR DOES SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. APPEARS TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
DIA WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER.
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ENHANCING THE SURFACE
WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF DENVER
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL 20Z-02Z. CLEARING SKIES
WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS WHICH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231652
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. INCREASING
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY DENVER AND LIMON NORTHWARD WHILE
STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CAPE VALUES LIMITED...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER DUE TO COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LIFT WITH TROUGH. LOOKS
TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE HIGHER PASSES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE NORTHERLY BY THE
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE EAST OF
A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE CAPES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100-200
J/KG. NOT ALOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. RADAR DOES SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. APPEARS TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
DIA WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER.
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ENHANCING THE SURFACE
WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF DENVER
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL 20Z-02Z. CLEARING SKIES
WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS WHICH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231652
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. INCREASING
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY DENVER AND LIMON NORTHWARD WHILE
STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CAPE VALUES LIMITED...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER DUE TO COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LIFT WITH TROUGH. LOOKS
TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE HIGHER PASSES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE NORTHERLY BY THE
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE EAST OF
A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE CAPES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100-200
J/KG. NOT ALOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. RADAR DOES SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. APPEARS TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
DIA WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER.
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ENHANCING THE SURFACE
WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF DENVER
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL 20Z-02Z. CLEARING SKIES
WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS WHICH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 231652
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. INCREASING
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...
LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY DENVER AND LIMON NORTHWARD WHILE
STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CAPE VALUES LIMITED...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER DUE TO COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LIFT WITH TROUGH. LOOKS
TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE HIGHER PASSES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MORE NORTHERLY BY THE
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE EAST OF
A STERLING TO LIMON LINE WHERE CAPES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100-200
J/KG. NOT ALOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. RADAR DOES SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. APPEARS TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
DIA WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER.
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ENHANCING THE SURFACE
WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF DENVER
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL 20Z-02Z. CLEARING SKIES
WITH DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS WHICH WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 45
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KGJT 231628
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1028 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN SLOPE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER NW COLORADO. WINDS
HAVE BECOME LESS GUSTY AS COOLER AIR SPREADS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS...AND THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
DRY. ACCEPTED THE RAP13 TRENDS THAT INDICATE THE SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE ONCE THE ACTIVITY LEAVES NW COLORADO THIS MORNING. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...BUT VERY LITTLE PCPN BEYOND THIS AREA. COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE TROUGH SHIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND WINDS ALOFT VEER TO
NW. SEASONABLY STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZE DAMAGE TO
BLOOMING FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION. BUT FOR NOW THE SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE VALLEYS AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...VERY WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT BACKS
FROM NW TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BUT VALLEY INVERSIONS
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...THE NEXT STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL. 700MB SW
WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AND DRY CONDITIONS THREATENS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SW COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS ENOUGH TO THREATEN LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED
PRONOUNCED CYCLOGENESIS OVER COLORADO AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SPRING SNOW STORM (AT LEAST FOR THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET). WRAPAROUND MOISTURE KEEPS THE PCPN
THREAT FOR NW COLORADO ONGOING INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
COOLER WEATHER (RAIN VALLEYS; MIXED PCPN MID SLOPE; SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THU MORNING.
NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WRN NE THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS PRESENT TODAY...THOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. ONE FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY ALSO TRIGGER ISOLD
TO SCT SHOWERS OVER THE CO MTNS IN THE VICINITY OF
KTEX...KASE...KEGE. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231142
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
542 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN SLOPE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER NW COLORADO. WINDS
HAVE BECOME LESS GUSTY AS COOLER AIR SPREADS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS...AND THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
DRY. ACCEPTED THE RAP13 TRENDS THAT INDICATE THE SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE ONCE THE ACTIVITY LEAVES NW COLORADO THIS MORNING. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...BUT VERY LITTLE PCPN BEYOND THIS AREA. COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE TROUGH SHIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND WINDS ALOFT VEER TO
NW. SEASONABLY STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZE DAMAGE TO
BLOOMING FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION. BUT FOR NOW THE SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE VALLEYS AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...VERY WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT BACKS
FROM NW TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BUT VALLEY INVERSIONS
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...THE NEXT STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL. 700MB SW
WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AND DRY CONDITIONS THREATENS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SW COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS ENOUGH TO THREATEN LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED
PRONOUNCED CYCLOGENESIS OVER COLORADO AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SPRING SNOW STORM (AT LEAST FOR THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET). WRAPAROUND MOISTURE KEEPS THE PCPN
THREAT FOR NW COLORADO ONGOING INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
COOLER WEATHER (RAIN VALLEYS; MIXED PCPN MID SLOPE; SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

NOT AS WINDY BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM THE WEST TO 25-30 KTS WILL
STILL OCCUR. SCATTERED LIGHT -SHSN WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY OBSCURING SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN TOPS AT TIMES...OTHERWISE
VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231105
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
505 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN SLOPE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER NW COLORADO. WINDS
HAVE BECOME LESS GUSTY AS COOLER AIR SPREADS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS...AND THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
DRY. ACCEPTED THE RAP13 TRENDS THAT INDICATE THE SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE ONCE THE ACTIVITY LEAVES NW COLORADO THIS MORNING. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...BUT VERY LITTLE PCPN BEYOND THIS AREA. COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE TROUGH SHIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND WINDS ALOFT VEER TO
NW. SEASONABLY STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZE DAMAGE TO
BLOOMING FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION. BUT FOR NOW THE SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE VALLEYS AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...VERY WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT BACKS
FROM NW TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BUT VALLEY INVERSIONS
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...THE NEXT STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL. 700MB SW
WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AND DRY CONDITIONS THREATENS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SW COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS ENOUGH TO THREATEN LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED
PRONOUNCED CYCLOGENESIS OVER COLORADO AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SPRING SNOW STORM (AT LEAST FOR THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET). WRAPAROUND MOISTURE KEEPS THE PCPN
THREAT FOR NW COLORADO ONGOING INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
COOLER WEATHER (RAIN VALLEYS; MIXED PCPN MID SLOPE; SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BY 10Z WEDNESADY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENHANCE WIND GUSTS WITH
SPEEDS CLOCKING IN OVER 40 KTS IN THE VALLEYS WITH 60 KTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS CALM DOWN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231042
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
442 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FOR THE STATE. AS OF 330 AM...THESE WINDS HAVE
TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC AS BREEZY S-SW WINDS...HELPING TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA SOMEWHAT WARM WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS...50S
FOR THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA AND EVEN 50 F IN ALAMOSA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST SINCE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MORE SO THE
CENTRAL MTS...THEN AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...THEN PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE EVE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IS UNDER THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY...THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO STRONGER SW WINDS AND HOT DRY CONDITIONS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WARNING AREA SHUTTING DOWN FIRST AS THE FRONT
RACES SOUTH. SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH REGARDS TO THE WALDO
BURN SCAR. DO NOT THINK THAT THE THREAT IS GREAT TODAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

...POTENTIAL STORM THIS WEEKEND...

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
COLORADO FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREA. AS PROJECTED NOW...THE SYSTEM WOULD
APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING SNOW
INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND INCREASING THE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
THEN...SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER...SPREADING SNOW TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKE TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND IT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE
PLAINS...STRENGTHENS...AND GETS ORGANIZED...THE WINDS WOULD
REALLY CRANK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
MODERATELY COLD ALOFT...A LOT OF WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO REALLY NOT A VERY COLD SYSTEM
AS IT COMES ACROSS. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6K BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL.
SO...PLACES LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...THAT WOULD GO FOR
SOUTHERN PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS WELL. FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS...IT WOULD MAINLY BE WIND DRIVEN RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD PROBABLY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS
ALSO SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY...IN THE FORM
OF WIND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO IS A SOMEWHAT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK MUCH
FARTHER NORTH...ONE LESS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...JUST
COMING IN...HAS INTRODUCED MORE UNCERTAINTY...NOW TAKING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AGAIN...LEANING TOWARD LESS FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. NEED TO BE
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE WE CAN BUILD ANY KIND OF REAL CONFIDENCE.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH
INCREASING S-SW SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTN. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 18Z-23Z ALONG THE I25
CORRIDOR. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD RIGHT
AROUND 00Z...SWITCHING WINDS AT KCOS AROUND 00Z AND AT KPUB AROUND
01-02Z TO THE N-NW ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL SHUT OFF SOON AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230949
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
349 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT
317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DENVER AREA THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL TURN WEST BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AFTER
AS S SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10-25 KNOTS. THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER
AROUND 00Z AND NEAR SHOWERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
17Z-04Z. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY EAST OF THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ247.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230949
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
349 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO TURN WESTERLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL IN COOLER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW 10-40 PERCENT. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO END BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN ON THU AS ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN ALONG THE WY BORDER AND ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.

BY FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU FRI NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FM CNTRL WY INTO CNTRL CO WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER
NERN CO WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SO COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO THEIR
FORECASTS. TWO NIGHTS AGO THEY WERE TRENDING TOWARDS A STG CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO BY SUN WHILE LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY
MORNING THEY HAD THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER NRN CO/WY. TONIGHT
THEY ARE ALL NOW TRENDING BACK TOWARDS A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SERN CO ON SUN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE FCST IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR AS TO WHERE THIS
STG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL END UP BY SUN.

AT ANY RATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SAT STG SFC LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO.  AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH THE
FLOW WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NONE OF THEM
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A CLUE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE.  WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW FCST TO BE OVER NERN AZ/NWRN
NM BY SAT EVENING WOULD THINK MAIN SFC LOW WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND NOT RESIDE OVER THE ERN PLAINS.  AS A RESULT THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SELY INFLOW OF DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF DENVER.  WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXCELLENT MID LVL SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MTNS AND INCREASING MID LVL QG ASCENT BY LATE AFTN SHOULD
SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL UNLESS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER THAT FCST. MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO MAY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY.

FOR SUN AS MENTIONED ABV THE WHOLE FCST DEPENDS ON WHERE A STG
CLOSED LOW DVLPS.  IF IT DOES TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO SERN CO
THEN THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A SPRING STORM OVER NRN CO.  THE
ONE THING THAT IS LACKING IS COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PCPN
ACROSS NERN CO AND MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS WOULD BE ALL RAIN THRU SUN
AFTN WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO THE MTNS.  AT THIS
TIME CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT A STG STORM SYSTEM MAY END UP OVER
SERN CO SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR NERN CO/FOOTHILLS
AND LIKELY FOR THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S
OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WRN KANSAS
AND THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MON AFTN BASED ON CURRENT DATA.  IF
THIS OCCURS THEN SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING OVER
NRN CO BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY MIDDAY MON.  THUS HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER SUN NIGHT SO
PCPN SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVER NERN
CO.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RGN.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A STG CDFNT
WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND HAS MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SOME LOW POPS
FOR MON NIGHT BUT KEEP FCST MAINLY DRY FOR TUE. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
TUE BASED ON THE ECMWF WOULD STAY IN THE 50S WHILE THE GFS HAS
READINGS IN THE 60S. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT
317 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DENVER AREA THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL TURN WEST BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AFTER
AS S SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10-25 KNOTS. THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER
AROUND 00Z AND NEAR SHOWERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
17Z-04Z. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY EAST OF THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ247.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 230516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. PRECIP OVER
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
KEPT SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...AS A FEW -SHRA OVER
NRN NM WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECASTS TO END -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE EASTERN MTS/PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE THE PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING
DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG(OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR
SEVERE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN
ADDITION...AS ALWAYS...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS NEAR/OVER RECENT BURN SCARS(ESPECIALLY THE WALDO
CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS).

FOR WEDNESDAY(FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT)...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
DUE TO PROJECTED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT A HEALTHY DRY-LINE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON(WHICH MATCHES QUITE NICELY WITH LATEST SPC 2ND DAY
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WFO PUEBLO CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DRY-
LINE CLOSELY.

FINALLY...MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WED NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING INTO KS BY EARLY THU MORNING.  WED
EVENING A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS...WITH
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
THAN THE GFS...BUT WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST...
INCLUDING SOME TSTMS. SOME ISOLD PCPN MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD. THE NAM HOLDS ONTO SOME PCPN ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENDS ALL PCPN BY LATE NIGHT.

AFTER THU MORNING...DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY AS AN UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA.
THU AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SRN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FREMONT
COUNTY...AS S TO SW WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS AND RH VALUES FALL
TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

FRI AFTERNOON THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR SOME OF THE MTN
AREAS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WX DRY. WL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY
PCPN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL FRI EVENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL DRY
DURING THAT PERIOD.

BY SAT MORNING AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NV...WHICH
THEN MOVES ACRS UT DURING THE DAY. THE TRACK THE STORM WILL TAKE
AFTER THAT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CO...REACHING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY
06Z SUN...AND THEN HEADING NORTHWARD TO WRN SD BY 18Z SUN. THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE LOW CENTER ENDING UP
OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO BY 06Z SUN...AND THEN IT HEAD NORTHEAST AND
ENDS UP IN WRN NE BY 18Z SUN. EITHER WAY...THE CONTDVD...THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND ERN MTS WL HAVE PCPN. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAT THE GFS SHOWS...THE SERN PLAINS GETS LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...WHILE THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF BRINGS PCPN TO
THAT AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. FOR NOW WL LEAN CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR MON...THE GFS HAS AN
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE WRN STATES AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAR
OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WX OVR THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE ECMWF STILL HAS AN UPR LOW OVR SWRN SD AND KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVR MUCH OF CO. FOR TUE BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT
STRONG UPR LOW OVR OVR IA/IL...LEAVING OUR AREA WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

TAF SITES WILL STAY VFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
WED...WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALL
TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z...WHICH
MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING DUST AROUND KPUB
AND KALS AFTER 20Z. COLD FRONT THEN DROPS THROUGH KCOS AND KPUB
00Z-01Z WITH A SWITCH TO N-NW WINDS AND SOME ISOLATED
-SHRA FROM KCOS NORTHWARD IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230405
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1005 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDS PICKING BACK UP ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS WOULD
PUT THE FRONT THROUGH VERNAL AND PRICE AS OF 945 PM MDT AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS COMING IN CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 40 MPH IN THE VALLEYS TO OVER
60 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE BOOKCLIFFS. DOUGLAS PASS
RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST TO 67 MPH. WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
VIRGA...WOULD EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT
WIND HIGHLIGHTS BY A FEW HOURS FOR POTENTIAL OF 45 TO 60 MPH
GUSTS. TEMPS WILL BE QUICKLY DROPPING OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
GOOD 20 DEGREES OF COOLING POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS TO COVER
EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN UTAH
AND INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. EVENING 00Z RAOB FROM GRAND JUNCTION
INDICATES STRONGER WINDS ABOUT 4000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE WIND
ADVISORIES STILL ON TRACK. IN ADDITION...SFC OBS NEAR SALT LAKE
CITY INDICATING WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH WITH THE FRONT. CURRENT
TIMING BRINGS THE FRONT TO A VERNAL TO CANYONLANDS LINE BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE LOWER VALLEY ZONES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WERE ALREADY GUSTING IN THE 30S AND 40S
WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA AT OR JUST ABOVE 45 MPH. FORECAST
IS STILL ON TRACK AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
VALLEYS.  GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN THE SE
UTAH MOUNTAINS AND AT DOUGLAS PASS SO ADDED THEM TO THE ADVISORY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN NE UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTEST UP HERE.  SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HELPING TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN PLACES. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOSTLY VIRGA BASED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE BEING DETECTED.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ANY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  BLOWING
DUST WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY DUST SETTLING AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS
AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS.  A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL USHER
IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOME 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAYS NEAR RECORD HIGHS.  SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
BY SUNSET AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN.  CLEARING SKIES AND
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL LEAD TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
SOME LOWER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR ANY
FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH BUDGES IT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A CALMER AND WARMER PERIOD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROF. FRIDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS
TODAY BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A TAD FARTHER WEST AND THE
WESTERN SYSTEM WILL STILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. SO FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE WARM AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM BUT WINDS DO NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GUSTY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS
IN HANDLING THE WESTERN TROF/S PROGRESS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PUSH THE BULK OF THE QG FORCING
INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE TREND FOR THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
NORTHWARD BUT FOR NOW STILL BRING A DECENT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
TO OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BELOW 9000 FEET...BUT SHOULD FALL
TO THE HIGHER VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS H7 TEMPS ARE
COOLING TO AROUND -6. THIS IS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO TRENDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STILL MAY BE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS WANING. WITH THIS TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A BLOCKY
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR BELOW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BY 10Z WEDNESADY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENHANCE WIND GUSTS WITH
SPEEDS CLOCKING IN OVER 40 KTS IN THE VALLEYS WITH 60 KTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS CALM DOWN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ001>003-006-011-
     020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022>025-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...MA
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 230352
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
952 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. PRECIP OVER
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
KEPT SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...AS A FEW -SHRA OVER
NRN NM WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECASTS TO END -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE EASTERN MTS/PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE THE PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING
DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG(OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR
SEVERE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN
ADDITION...AS ALWAYS...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS NEAR/OVER RECENT BURN SCARS(ESPECIALLY THE WALDO
CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS).

FOR WEDNESDAY(FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT)...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
DUE TO PROJECTED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT A HEALTHY DRY-LINE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON(WHICH MATCHES QUITE NICELY WITH LATEST SPC 2ND DAY
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WFO PUEBLO CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DRY-
LINE CLOSELY.

FINALLY...MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WED NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING INTO KS BY EARLY THU MORNING.  WED
EVENING A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS...WITH
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
THAN THE GFS...BUT WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST...
INCLUDING SOME TSTMS. SOME ISOLD PCPN MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD. THE NAM HOLDS ONTO SOME PCPN ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENDS ALL PCPN BY LATE NIGHT.

AFTER THU MORNING...DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY AS AN UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA.
THU AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SRN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FREMONT
COUNTY...AS S TO SW WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS AND RH VALUES FALL
TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

FRI AFTERNOON THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR SOME OF THE MTN
AREAS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WX DRY. WL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY
PCPN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL FRI EVENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL DRY
DURING THAT PERIOD.

BY SAT MORNING AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NV...WHICH
THEN MOVES ACRS UT DURING THE DAY. THE TRACK THE STORM WILL TAKE
AFTER THAT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CO...REACHING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY
06Z SUN...AND THEN HEADING NORTHWARD TO WRN SD BY 18Z SUN. THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE LOW CENTER ENDING UP
OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO BY 06Z SUN...AND THEN IT HEAD NORTHEAST AND
ENDS UP IN WRN NE BY 18Z SUN. EITHER WAY...THE CONTDVD...THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND ERN MTS WL HAVE PCPN. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAT THE GFS SHOWS...THE SERN PLAINS GETS LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...WHILE THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF BRINGS PCPN TO
THAT AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. FOR NOW WL LEAN CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR MON...THE GFS HAS AN
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE WRN STATES AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAR
OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WX OVR THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE ECMWF STILL HAS AN UPR LOW OVR SWRN SD AND KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVR MUCH OF CO. FOR TUE BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT
STRONG UPR LOW OVR OVR IA/IL...LEAVING OUR AREA WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230256
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA FROM EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. ACTIVITY RATHER LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND MAINLY HIGH BASED. NEAREST LIGHTNING CURRENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR...A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. STILL EXPECTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING
AS WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...APPEARS THE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED THIS EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ALONG WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANY
STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. MODELS SHOW WEAK 700 MB
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AT THAT TIME. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH...WITH SOME WEAK LIFT NOTED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH THAT THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 11000 FEET AGL WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER PASSES. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE...NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THUNDER AT THIS TIME. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AS 700 MB FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WHILE REMAINING MORE NORTHWEST ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
REACHING 30 KTS ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER AND SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
ASCENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO
BE COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH...WITH READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK
AROUND MID DAY...THEN SLOWLY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AS FRONT
MAY NOT REACH THAT AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS OVER SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. GREEN UP HAS BEEN LIMITED IN THAT AREA...SO
EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WILL HOIST A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47 FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS IT CONTINUES
SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HELP STABILIZE AND DRY OUT THE AIRMASS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...UPPER 60S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HUMIDITIES ARE IN
THE MID TEENS AND WINDS ARE 20-25 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY THEN OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN IMPROVED SINCE
LAST NIGHT. THE GEM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH ITS SOLUTION
BUT CONTINUES TO LAG ALL THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. IT SEEMED AS THOUGH
THE GFS WAS STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE WEAKER AND OPEN WAVE
SOLUTION OF THE EC...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUNS SEEMED TO GO OPPOSITE
WITH THEIR TRENDS WITH BEING SLIGHTLY DEEPER. BUT EVEN WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTIONS...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH STILL SEEMS TO
FAR NORTH FOR ANY SORT OF UPSLOPE TO DEVELOP. WITH THESE
SOLUTIONS...BELIEVE WE`LL SEE MORE WIND THEN PRECIPITATION...WITH
MORE WIND SOUTH OF I70 AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF
I70. ALL THREE MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SECONDARY WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TO BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT GENERAL FORECAST FROM LAST
PACKAGE EXCEPT DECREASED POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
WITH NO UPSLOPE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MAY STICK WITH A SLY WIND
COMPONENT AT KDEN UNTIL 04Z THEN SWLY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY HUMIDITY READINGS
OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREEN UP HAS
BEEN LIMITED IN THAT AREA...SO EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WILL HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47
FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM. HUMIDITY READINGS TO INCREASE AT THAT TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...COOPER
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 230256
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA FROM EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. ACTIVITY RATHER LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND MAINLY HIGH BASED. NEAREST LIGHTNING CURRENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR...A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. STILL EXPECTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING
AS WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...APPEARS THE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED THIS EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ALONG WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANY
STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. MODELS SHOW WEAK 700 MB
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AT THAT TIME. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH...WITH SOME WEAK LIFT NOTED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH THAT THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 11000 FEET AGL WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER PASSES. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE...NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THUNDER AT THIS TIME. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AS 700 MB FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WHILE REMAINING MORE NORTHWEST ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
REACHING 30 KTS ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER AND SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
ASCENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO
BE COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH...WITH READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK
AROUND MID DAY...THEN SLOWLY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AS FRONT
MAY NOT REACH THAT AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS OVER SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. GREEN UP HAS BEEN LIMITED IN THAT AREA...SO
EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WILL HOIST A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47 FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS IT CONTINUES
SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HELP STABILIZE AND DRY OUT THE AIRMASS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...UPPER 60S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HUMIDITIES ARE IN
THE MID TEENS AND WINDS ARE 20-25 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY THEN OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN IMPROVED SINCE
LAST NIGHT. THE GEM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH ITS SOLUTION
BUT CONTINUES TO LAG ALL THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. IT SEEMED AS THOUGH
THE GFS WAS STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE WEAKER AND OPEN WAVE
SOLUTION OF THE EC...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUNS SEEMED TO GO OPPOSITE
WITH THEIR TRENDS WITH BEING SLIGHTLY DEEPER. BUT EVEN WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTIONS...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH STILL SEEMS TO
FAR NORTH FOR ANY SORT OF UPSLOPE TO DEVELOP. WITH THESE
SOLUTIONS...BELIEVE WE`LL SEE MORE WIND THEN PRECIPITATION...WITH
MORE WIND SOUTH OF I70 AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF
I70. ALL THREE MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SECONDARY WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TO BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT GENERAL FORECAST FROM LAST
PACKAGE EXCEPT DECREASED POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
WITH NO UPSLOPE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MAY STICK WITH A SLY WIND
COMPONENT AT KDEN UNTIL 04Z THEN SWLY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY HUMIDITY READINGS
OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREEN UP HAS
BEEN LIMITED IN THAT AREA...SO EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WILL HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47
FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM. HUMIDITY READINGS TO INCREASE AT THAT TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...COOPER
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 230256
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA FROM EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. ACTIVITY RATHER LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND MAINLY HIGH BASED. NEAREST LIGHTNING CURRENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR...A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. STILL EXPECTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING
AS WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...APPEARS THE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED THIS EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ALONG WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANY
STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. MODELS SHOW WEAK 700 MB
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AT THAT TIME. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH...WITH SOME WEAK LIFT NOTED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH THAT THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 11000 FEET AGL WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER PASSES. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE...NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THUNDER AT THIS TIME. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AS 700 MB FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WHILE REMAINING MORE NORTHWEST ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
REACHING 30 KTS ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER AND SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
ASCENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO
BE COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH...WITH READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK
AROUND MID DAY...THEN SLOWLY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AS FRONT
MAY NOT REACH THAT AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS OVER SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. GREEN UP HAS BEEN LIMITED IN THAT AREA...SO
EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WILL HOIST A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47 FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS IT CONTINUES
SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HELP STABILIZE AND DRY OUT THE AIRMASS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...UPPER 60S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HUMIDITIES ARE IN
THE MID TEENS AND WINDS ARE 20-25 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY THEN OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN IMPROVED SINCE
LAST NIGHT. THE GEM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH ITS SOLUTION
BUT CONTINUES TO LAG ALL THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. IT SEEMED AS THOUGH
THE GFS WAS STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE WEAKER AND OPEN WAVE
SOLUTION OF THE EC...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUNS SEEMED TO GO OPPOSITE
WITH THEIR TRENDS WITH BEING SLIGHTLY DEEPER. BUT EVEN WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTIONS...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH STILL SEEMS TO
FAR NORTH FOR ANY SORT OF UPSLOPE TO DEVELOP. WITH THESE
SOLUTIONS...BELIEVE WE`LL SEE MORE WIND THEN PRECIPITATION...WITH
MORE WIND SOUTH OF I70 AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF
I70. ALL THREE MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SECONDARY WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TO BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT GENERAL FORECAST FROM LAST
PACKAGE EXCEPT DECREASED POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
WITH NO UPSLOPE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MAY STICK WITH A SLY WIND
COMPONENT AT KDEN UNTIL 04Z THEN SWLY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY HUMIDITY READINGS
OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREEN UP HAS
BEEN LIMITED IN THAT AREA...SO EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WILL HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47
FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM. HUMIDITY READINGS TO INCREASE AT THAT TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...COOPER
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KBOU 230256
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA FROM EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. ACTIVITY RATHER LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND MAINLY HIGH BASED. NEAREST LIGHTNING CURRENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR...A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. STILL EXPECTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING
AS WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...APPEARS THE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED THIS EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ALONG WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANY
STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. MODELS SHOW WEAK 700 MB
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AT THAT TIME. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH...WITH SOME WEAK LIFT NOTED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH THAT THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 11000 FEET AGL WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER PASSES. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE...NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THUNDER AT THIS TIME. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AS 700 MB FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WHILE REMAINING MORE NORTHWEST ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
REACHING 30 KTS ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER AND SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
ASCENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO
BE COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH...WITH READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK
AROUND MID DAY...THEN SLOWLY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AS FRONT
MAY NOT REACH THAT AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS OVER SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. GREEN UP HAS BEEN LIMITED IN THAT AREA...SO
EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WILL HOIST A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47 FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS IT CONTINUES
SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HELP STABILIZE AND DRY OUT THE AIRMASS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...UPPER 60S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HUMIDITIES ARE IN
THE MID TEENS AND WINDS ARE 20-25 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY THEN OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN IMPROVED SINCE
LAST NIGHT. THE GEM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH ITS SOLUTION
BUT CONTINUES TO LAG ALL THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. IT SEEMED AS THOUGH
THE GFS WAS STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE WEAKER AND OPEN WAVE
SOLUTION OF THE EC...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUNS SEEMED TO GO OPPOSITE
WITH THEIR TRENDS WITH BEING SLIGHTLY DEEPER. BUT EVEN WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTIONS...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH STILL SEEMS TO
FAR NORTH FOR ANY SORT OF UPSLOPE TO DEVELOP. WITH THESE
SOLUTIONS...BELIEVE WE`LL SEE MORE WIND THEN PRECIPITATION...WITH
MORE WIND SOUTH OF I70 AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF
I70. ALL THREE MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SECONDARY WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TO BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT GENERAL FORECAST FROM LAST
PACKAGE EXCEPT DECREASED POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
WITH NO UPSLOPE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MAY STICK WITH A SLY WIND
COMPONENT AT KDEN UNTIL 04Z THEN SWLY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY HUMIDITY READINGS
OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREEN UP HAS
BEEN LIMITED IN THAT AREA...SO EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WILL HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47
FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM. HUMIDITY READINGS TO INCREASE AT THAT TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...COOPER
FIRE WEATHER...D-L



000
FXUS65 KPUB 230114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
714 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FORECASTS TO END -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE EASTERN MTS/PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE THE PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING
DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG(OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR
SEVERE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN
ADDITION...AS ALWAYS...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS NEAR/OVER RECENT BURN SCARS(ESPECIALLY THE WALDO
CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS).

FOR WEDNESDAY(FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT)...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
DUE TO PROJECTED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT A HEALTHY DRY-LINE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON(WHICH MATCHES QUITE NICELY WITH LATEST SPC 2ND DAY
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WFO PUEBLO CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DRY-
LINE CLOSELY.

FINALLY...MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WED NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING INTO KS BY EARLY THU MORNING.  WED
EVENING A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS...WITH
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
THAN THE GFS...BUT WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST...
INCLUDING SOME TSTMS. SOME ISOLD PCPN MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD. THE NAM HOLDS ONTO SOME PCPN ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENDS ALL PCPN BY LATE NIGHT.

AFTER THU MORNING...DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY AS AN UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA.
THU AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SRN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FREMONT
COUNTY...AS S TO SW WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS AND RH VALUES FALL
TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

FRI AFTERNOON THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR SOME OF THE MTN
AREAS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WX DRY. WL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY
PCPN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL FRI EVENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL DRY
DURING THAT PERIOD.

BY SAT MORNING AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NV...WHICH
THEN MOVES ACRS UT DURING THE DAY. THE TRACK THE STORM WILL TAKE
AFTER THAT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CO...REACHING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY
06Z SUN...AND THEN HEADING NORTHWARD TO WRN SD BY 18Z SUN. THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE LOW CENTER ENDING UP
OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO BY 06Z SUN...AND THEN IT HEAD NORTHEAST AND
ENDS UP IN WRN NE BY 18Z SUN. EITHER WAY...THE CONTDVD...THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND ERN MTS WL HAVE PCPN. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAT THE GFS SHOWS...THE SERN PLAINS GETS LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...WHILE THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF BRINGS PCPN TO
THAT AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. FOR NOW WL LEAN CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR MON...THE GFS HAS AN
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE WRN STATES AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAR
OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WX OVR THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE ECMWF STILL HAS AN UPR LOW OVR SWRN SD AND KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVR MUCH OF CO. FOR TUE BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT
STRONG UPR LOW OVR OVR IA/IL...LEAVING OUR AREA WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77




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