Home > Products > State Listing > Colorado Data
Latest:
 AFDPUB |  AFDGJT |  AFDBOU |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPUB 040542
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE
CHANCE OF TS AT OR NR THE TAF SITES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRI. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
MTS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST AT KALS
FRI EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 040542
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE
CHANCE OF TS AT OR NR THE TAF SITES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRI. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
MTS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST AT KALS
FRI EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 040542
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE
CHANCE OF TS AT OR NR THE TAF SITES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRI. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
MTS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST AT KALS
FRI EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 040542
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE
CHANCE OF TS AT OR NR THE TAF SITES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRI. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
MTS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST AT KALS
FRI EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 040532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE
CHANCE OF TS AT OR NR THE TAF SITES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRI. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
MTS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVS. THE PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST AT KALS
FRI EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 040532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE
CHANCE OF TS AT OR NR THE TAF SITES FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRI. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
MTS BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MOVE OUT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVS. THE PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE HIGHEST AT KALS
FRI EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES
UNLESS A STRONGER CELL IMPACTS THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ANY IMPACT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 040513
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1113 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
AFFECTED THE STORMS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
THE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
KTEX AND KDRO HAVE ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL HAVE ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 040513
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1113 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
AFFECTED THE STORMS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
THE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
KTEX AND KDRO HAVE ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL HAVE ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 040513
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1113 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
AFFECTED THE STORMS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
THE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
KTEX AND KDRO HAVE ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL HAVE ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 040513
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1113 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
AFFECTED THE STORMS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
THE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
KTEX AND KDRO HAVE ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL HAVE ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 040513
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1113 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
AFFECTED THE STORMS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
THE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
KTEX AND KDRO HAVE ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL HAVE ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KPUB 040348
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
948 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 040348
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
948 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 040303
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
903 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION IS ALL BUT FINISHED ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WITH SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINING AREAS. THESE SHOULD FINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHER THAN THAT THINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. HRRR AND RAP
SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST REACHES OF
THE CWA BY MID MORNING WITH ALL AREAS HAVING A THREAT OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY FROM THE SW. INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
HELPED TO BRING PW VALUES BACK UP CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE THERE IS CLEARING THAT WILL HELP TO BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON STORMS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE PREFERABLE JET STREAK REGION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY...SO IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER DRYING EARLY FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP AGAIN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE
THROUGH...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOIST OVER THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH SHOULD BE AROUND FOR MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE QPF OVER FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY DUE TO THE JET. AIRMASS
MAY BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH. WILL KEEP SILENT POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW
MAY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF COLORADO AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
WITH LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THIS.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION FINISHED FOR THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY TO DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ET



000
FXUS65 KBOU 040303
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
903 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION IS ALL BUT FINISHED ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WITH SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINING AREAS. THESE SHOULD FINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHER THAN THAT THINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. HRRR AND RAP
SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST REACHES OF
THE CWA BY MID MORNING WITH ALL AREAS HAVING A THREAT OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY FROM THE SW. INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
HELPED TO BRING PW VALUES BACK UP CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE THERE IS CLEARING THAT WILL HELP TO BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON STORMS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE PREFERABLE JET STREAK REGION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY...SO IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER DRYING EARLY FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP AGAIN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE
THROUGH...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOIST OVER THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH SHOULD BE AROUND FOR MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE QPF OVER FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY DUE TO THE JET. AIRMASS
MAY BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH. WILL KEEP SILENT POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW
MAY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF COLORADO AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
WITH LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THIS.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONVECTION FINISHED FOR THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY TO DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ET




000
FXUS65 KPUB 032355
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
555 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 032355
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
555 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 032355
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
555 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 032345
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE DISSIPATING BETWEEN 00Z-02Z THIS
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINTY OF THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 032345
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE DISSIPATING BETWEEN 00Z-02Z THIS
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINTY OF THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 032345
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE DISSIPATING BETWEEN 00Z-02Z THIS
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINTY OF THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 032345
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE DISSIPATING BETWEEN 00Z-02Z THIS
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINTY OF THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 032100
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A BAND OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO I-70 CORRIDOR WILL
LIFT NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAK POINTS KEGE
AND KASE. ELSEWHERE SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOVE NE AT 15KTS. THROUGH 03Z THESE STORMS WILL THREATEN WIND
GUSTS TO 35KTS...CIGS BLO 050...VIS BLO 6SM IN STRONGER STORMS.
AFT 09Z SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THREATEN KDRO KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 032100
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A DISTURBANCE HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE DAY...INTO NW COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND
ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP RANGES THIS LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GOOD MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN STORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE
BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH A MAXIMUM TOWARDS MORNING
WITH THIS SURGE...1.2 INCHES ACROSS SE UTAH.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL EFFECTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK SIDE. IN ANY CASE
FRI PROMISES TO BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE AND WETTEST DAY FOR THIS
LATEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY SAT...WITH A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW) WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1+ INCH SAT
MORNING...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL SEE A DOWNTURN AS COMPARED TO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE DRYING TREND WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AS A
RESULT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
BY SUN AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATE THAT PW WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 0.25
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCH
LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY. THIS MODEST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A BAND OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO I-70 CORRIDOR WILL
LIFT NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAK POINTS KEGE
AND KASE. ELSEWHERE SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOVE NE AT 15KTS. THROUGH 03Z THESE STORMS WILL THREATEN WIND
GUSTS TO 35KTS...CIGS BLO 050...VIS BLO 6SM IN STRONGER STORMS.
AFT 09Z SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THREATEN KDRO KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 032050
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT
HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR. THIS HAS MESHED
WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER COLORADO TODAY.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE
MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTN AND EVE CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE
CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH AND EXIT THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY RIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...AND MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE
MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTN. A
MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

TROUGHIENESS DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS FCST
TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY SATURDAY.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 032050
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT
HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR. THIS HAS MESHED
WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER COLORADO TODAY.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE
MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTN AND EVE CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE
CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH AND EXIT THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY RIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...AND MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE
MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTN. A
MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

TROUGHIENESS DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS FCST
TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY SATURDAY.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 032047
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
247 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY FROM THE SW. INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
HELPED TO BRING PW VALUES BACK UP CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE THERE IS CLEARING THAT WILL HELP TO BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON STORMS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE PREFERABLE JET STREAK REGION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY...SO IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER DRYING EARLY FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP AGAIN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE
THROUGH...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOIST OVER THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH SHOULD BE AROUND FOR MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE QPF OVER FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY DUE TO THE JET. AIRMASS
MAY BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH. WILL KEEP SILENT POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW
MAY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF COLORADO AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
WITH LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THIS.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH SOME HEATING BEFORE THE
NEXT SURGE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. BKN TO
OVC DECK WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL ONLY DROP TO 070
OR 080. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE WITH A GRADUAL
SCATTERING OUT. FOR FRIDAY LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING CLOUD DECK BY
14Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 032047
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
247 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY FROM THE SW. INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
HELPED TO BRING PW VALUES BACK UP CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE THERE IS CLEARING THAT WILL HELP TO BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON STORMS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE PREFERABLE JET STREAK REGION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY...SO IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AFTER DRYING EARLY FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP AGAIN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE
THROUGH...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW. INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOIST OVER THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH SHOULD BE AROUND FOR MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE QPF OVER FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY DUE TO THE JET. AIRMASS
MAY BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH. WILL KEEP SILENT POPS IN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW
MAY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF COLORADO AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
WITH LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THIS.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH SOME HEATING BEFORE THE
NEXT SURGE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. BKN TO
OVC DECK WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL ONLY DROP TO 070
OR 080. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE WITH A GRADUAL
SCATTERING OUT. FOR FRIDAY LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING CLOUD DECK BY
14Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 031744
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1144 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON ALONG THE FRINGE OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE H5 VORT MAX WILL BE SITUATED. A 50 KT
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

ULJ SUPPORT INCREASES FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTERACTING WITH ENERGY AND
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. EXPECTING ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GFS AND EC INDICATE
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AROUND
00Z SATURDAY. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE FRIDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE
FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST US WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A BAND OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO I-70 CORRIDOR WILL
LIFT NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAK POINTS KEGE
AND KASE. ELSEWHERE SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOVE NE AT 15KTS. THROUGH 03Z THESE STORMS WILL THREATEN WIND
GUSTS TO 35KTS...CIGS BLO 050...VIS BLO 6SM IN STRONGER STORMS.
AFT 09Z SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THREATEN KDRO KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 031744
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1144 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON ALONG THE FRINGE OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE H5 VORT MAX WILL BE SITUATED. A 50 KT
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

ULJ SUPPORT INCREASES FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTERACTING WITH ENERGY AND
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. EXPECTING ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GFS AND EC INDICATE
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AROUND
00Z SATURDAY. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE FRIDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE
FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST US WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A BAND OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO I-70 CORRIDOR WILL
LIFT NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAK POINTS KEGE
AND KASE. ELSEWHERE SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOVE NE AT 15KTS. THROUGH 03Z THESE STORMS WILL THREATEN WIND
GUSTS TO 35KTS...CIGS BLO 050...VIS BLO 6SM IN STRONGER STORMS.
AFT 09Z SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THREATEN KDRO KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 031744
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1144 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON ALONG THE FRINGE OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE H5 VORT MAX WILL BE SITUATED. A 50 KT
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

ULJ SUPPORT INCREASES FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTERACTING WITH ENERGY AND
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. EXPECTING ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GFS AND EC INDICATE
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AROUND
00Z SATURDAY. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE FRIDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE
FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST US WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A BAND OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO I-70 CORRIDOR WILL
LIFT NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAK POINTS KEGE
AND KASE. ELSEWHERE SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOVE NE AT 15KTS. THROUGH 03Z THESE STORMS WILL THREATEN WIND
GUSTS TO 35KTS...CIGS BLO 050...VIS BLO 6SM IN STRONGER STORMS.
AFT 09Z SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THREATEN KDRO KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 031744
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1144 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON ALONG THE FRINGE OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE H5 VORT MAX WILL BE SITUATED. A 50 KT
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

ULJ SUPPORT INCREASES FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTERACTING WITH ENERGY AND
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. EXPECTING ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GFS AND EC INDICATE
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AROUND
00Z SATURDAY. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE FRIDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE
FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST US WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A BAND OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO I-70 CORRIDOR WILL
LIFT NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAK POINTS KEGE
AND KASE. ELSEWHERE SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOVE NE AT 15KTS. THROUGH 03Z THESE STORMS WILL THREATEN WIND
GUSTS TO 35KTS...CIGS BLO 050...VIS BLO 6SM IN STRONGER STORMS.
AFT 09Z SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THREATEN KDRO KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 031744
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1144 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON ALONG THE FRINGE OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE H5 VORT MAX WILL BE SITUATED. A 50 KT
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

ULJ SUPPORT INCREASES FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTERACTING WITH ENERGY AND
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. EXPECTING ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GFS AND EC INDICATE
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AROUND
00Z SATURDAY. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE FRIDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE
FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST US WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A BAND OF STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO I-70 CORRIDOR WILL
LIFT NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAK POINTS KEGE
AND KASE. ELSEWHERE SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOVE NE AT 15KTS. THROUGH 03Z THESE STORMS WILL THREATEN WIND
GUSTS TO 35KTS...CIGS BLO 050...VIS BLO 6SM IN STRONGER STORMS.
AFT 09Z SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THREATEN KDRO KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 031723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT
23 HOURS. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VCSH AND
VCTS HIS AFTN AND EVE...SO INCLUDED THIS FROM 19Z-03Z. THIS IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR VCTS FOR KPUB LATE AFTN...SO INCLUDED 23Z-0-3Z.
LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO
THE N-NW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 031723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT
23 HOURS. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VCSH AND
VCTS HIS AFTN AND EVE...SO INCLUDED THIS FROM 19Z-03Z. THIS IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR VCTS FOR KPUB LATE AFTN...SO INCLUDED 23Z-0-3Z.
LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO
THE N-NW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT
23 HOURS. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VCSH AND
VCTS HIS AFTN AND EVE...SO INCLUDED THIS FROM 19Z-03Z. THIS IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR VCTS FOR KPUB LATE AFTN...SO INCLUDED 23Z-0-3Z.
LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO
THE N-NW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 031723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT
23 HOURS. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VCSH AND
VCTS HIS AFTN AND EVE...SO INCLUDED THIS FROM 19Z-03Z. THIS IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR VCTS FOR KPUB LATE AFTN...SO INCLUDED 23Z-0-3Z.
LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO
THE N-NW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 031558
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN BRANCH OF ENERGY MOVING NE OUT
OF THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE. LIGHTING IS INDICATED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO SUMMIT AND PARK
COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SKY TO BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S FROM THE UPPER 80S AS UPSTREAM
SAT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CLEARING UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR STORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER DENVER BETWEEN 7 AND
8 PM THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND INCREASED MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE STATE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS
ALREADY RECORDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...AND THE KGJX RADAR IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SHOW A
BIT OF AN INVERTED-VEE PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN SHOW DEEPER SATURATED
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JET BEING IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SINCE SKIES WILL
BE GETTING CLOUDY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FM 0.5"-0.7" OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SCT
POPS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER NOT SURE ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHC CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE MAIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER
ERN COLORADO. STILL NOT SURE HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

BY SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A WK COOL FNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SO AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WK FNT IS LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS.  WITH INCREASING LOW LVL FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MON DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WSW FLOW
ALOFT AND HOLDS OFF THIS FNT UNTIL TUE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS HAD THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN. THUS THIS SETUP WOULD
HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE LATEST
SOLUTION HAS NOTHING. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW THE
COLD FNT MOVING INTO TUE NIGHT AND HAD ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR SOME WDLY SCT STORMS.  AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE PREVIOUS FCST ALONE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THEIR SFC SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO BEHIND A FNT WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN CO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
LEAN SO WILL JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOVED UP THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
PARK COUNTY AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z THEN AGAIN BETWEEN
21 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON. BKN TO OVC DECK WILL GET DOWN TO 070
OR 080 WITH POSSIBLE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WITH THE STORMS. STORMS
SHOULD START TO MOVE TO THE NE AROUND 02Z WITH CEILINGS REMAINING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 031558
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN BRANCH OF ENERGY MOVING NE OUT
OF THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE. LIGHTING IS INDICATED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO SUMMIT AND PARK
COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SKY TO BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S FROM THE UPPER 80S AS UPSTREAM
SAT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CLEARING UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR STORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER DENVER BETWEEN 7 AND
8 PM THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND INCREASED MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE STATE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS
ALREADY RECORDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...AND THE KGJX RADAR IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SHOW A
BIT OF AN INVERTED-VEE PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN SHOW DEEPER SATURATED
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JET BEING IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SINCE SKIES WILL
BE GETTING CLOUDY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FM 0.5"-0.7" OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SCT
POPS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER NOT SURE ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHC CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE MAIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER
ERN COLORADO. STILL NOT SURE HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

BY SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A WK COOL FNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SO AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WK FNT IS LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS.  WITH INCREASING LOW LVL FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MON DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WSW FLOW
ALOFT AND HOLDS OFF THIS FNT UNTIL TUE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS HAD THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN. THUS THIS SETUP WOULD
HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE LATEST
SOLUTION HAS NOTHING. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW THE
COLD FNT MOVING INTO TUE NIGHT AND HAD ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR SOME WDLY SCT STORMS.  AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE PREVIOUS FCST ALONE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THEIR SFC SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO BEHIND A FNT WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN CO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
LEAN SO WILL JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOVED UP THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
PARK COUNTY AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z THEN AGAIN BETWEEN
21 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON. BKN TO OVC DECK WILL GET DOWN TO 070
OR 080 WITH POSSIBLE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WITH THE STORMS. STORMS
SHOULD START TO MOVE TO THE NE AROUND 02Z WITH CEILINGS REMAINING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 031558
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN BRANCH OF ENERGY MOVING NE OUT
OF THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE. LIGHTING IS INDICATED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO SUMMIT AND PARK
COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SKY TO BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S FROM THE UPPER 80S AS UPSTREAM
SAT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CLEARING UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR STORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER DENVER BETWEEN 7 AND
8 PM THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND INCREASED MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE STATE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS
ALREADY RECORDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...AND THE KGJX RADAR IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SHOW A
BIT OF AN INVERTED-VEE PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN SHOW DEEPER SATURATED
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JET BEING IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SINCE SKIES WILL
BE GETTING CLOUDY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FM 0.5"-0.7" OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SCT
POPS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER NOT SURE ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHC CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE MAIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER
ERN COLORADO. STILL NOT SURE HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO.

BY SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A WK COOL FNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SO AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WK FNT IS LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS.  WITH INCREASING LOW LVL FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MON DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WSW FLOW
ALOFT AND HOLDS OFF THIS FNT UNTIL TUE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS HAD THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN. THUS THIS SETUP WOULD
HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE LATEST
SOLUTION HAS NOTHING. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW THE
COLD FNT MOVING INTO TUE NIGHT AND HAD ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR SOME WDLY SCT STORMS.  AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE PREVIOUS FCST ALONE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THEIR SFC SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO BEHIND A FNT WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN CO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
LEAN SO WILL JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOVED UP THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
PARK COUNTY AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z THEN AGAIN BETWEEN
21 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON. BKN TO OVC DECK WILL GET DOWN TO 070
OR 080 WITH POSSIBLE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WITH THE STORMS. STORMS
SHOULD START TO MOVE TO THE NE AROUND 02Z WITH CEILINGS REMAINING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031339
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031339
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031339
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 031339
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBS AND UPDATED THE MORNING FIRE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28



000
FXUS65 KBOU 031053
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE STATE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS
ALREADY RECORDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...AND THE KGJX RADAR IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SHOW A
BIT OF AN INVERTED-VEE PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN SHOW DEEPER SATURATED
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JET BEING IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SINCE SKIES WILL
BE GETTING CLOUDY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FM 0.5"-0.7" OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SCT
POPS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER NOT SURE ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHC CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INVREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE MAIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER
ERN COLORADO.  STILL NOT SURE HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE AREA.  AS FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

BY SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A WK COOL FNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SO AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WK FNT IS LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS.  WITH INCREASING LOW LVL FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MON DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WSW FLOW
ALOFT AND HOLDS OFF THIS FNT UNTIL TUE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS HAD THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN. THUS THIS SETUP WOULD
HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE LATEST
SOLUTION HAS NOTHING. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW THE
COLD FNT MOVING INTO TUE NIGHT AND HAD ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR SOME WDLY SCT STORMS.  AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE PREVIOUS FCST ALONE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THEIR SFC SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO BEHIND A FNT WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN CO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
LEAN SO WILL JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE GOING
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 6000-8000 FEET AGL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
BY ABOUT 9 PM TONIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER
THAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 031053
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE STATE HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS
ALREADY RECORDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...AND THE KGJX RADAR IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER PARTS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SHOW A
BIT OF AN INVERTED-VEE PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF MORE GUSTY WINDS
THAN HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN SHOW DEEPER SATURATED
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JET BEING IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SINCE SKIES WILL
BE GETTING CLOUDY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FM 0.5"-0.7" OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SCT
POPS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER NOT SURE ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OVER THE
PLAINS.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHC CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INVREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AS THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE MAIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER
ERN COLORADO.  STILL NOT SURE HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS OVER THE AREA.  AS FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

BY SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  A WK COOL FNT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY HOWEVER 850-700 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SO AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WK FNT IS LACKING SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS.  WITH INCREASING LOW LVL FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MON DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

BY TUE THE ECMWF SHOWS DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY WSW FLOW
ALOFT AND HOLDS OFF THIS FNT UNTIL TUE NIGHT. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS HAD THIS TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH A WK FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN. THUS THIS SETUP WOULD
HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE LATEST
SOLUTION HAS NOTHING. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT SHOW THE
COLD FNT MOVING INTO TUE NIGHT AND HAD ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR SOME WDLY SCT STORMS.  AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE PREVIOUS FCST ALONE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THEIR SFC SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NERN CO BEHIND A FNT WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN CO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
LEAN SO WILL JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE GOING
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 6000-8000 FEET AGL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
BY ABOUT 9 PM TONIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER
THAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KPUB 031046
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 031046
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING WHICH MAY HELP
DECREASE FLOODING CHANCES SOMEWHAT.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ISOLATED.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE MOVING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING A
NEW DISTURBANCE WL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED PCPN TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ARE PRIMARY LONGER
TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
DURING THE LONGER TERM WHILE AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 12Z FRIDAY MOVES INTO IDAHO BY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING SHOULD BE NOTED INTO LATER SUNDAY BEFORE A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE(COURTESY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA) PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.  KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WILL KCOS.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KPUB ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST OR NW
IN THE EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGJT 031010
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
410 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON ALONG THE FRINGE OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE H5 VORT MAX WILL BE SITUATED. A 50 KT
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

ULJ SUPPORT INCREASES FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTERACTING WITH ENERGY AND
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. EXPECTING ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GFS AND EC INDICATE
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AROUND
00Z SATURDAY. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE FRIDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE
FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST US WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SHORT WAVE OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SW COLORADO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED -TSRA SPREADING TOWARD THE I70 CORRIDOR. THE BEST FOCUS
FOR THIS WAVE WILL BE BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z. A TRANSITION FROM
-SHRA TO -TSRA WITH STRONGER STORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...MPM



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030539
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1139 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THE STORMS ARE A BIT LESS ROBUST
BUT ARE FAVORING MUCH OF THE SAME AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AS 24 HOURS
AGO. PWAT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS RUNNING JUST UNDER AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE MULTICELL STORM MODE
IS FAVORED. EXPECT SOME VALLEYS TO GET IN ON THE ACTION AS WELL
BUT MAINLY AS LIGHT PCPN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN COMING OFF THE
TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THAT CHANGES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER.
VERY DISTINCT CURL (MCV?) SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN SHEAR OUT ACROSS OUR
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NAM/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL AS A NEW SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. TWEAKED THE INHERITED POPS WHICH ALREADY HINTED WELL AT
THIS SCENARIO OF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES STAY UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THURSDAY
FOR REASONS THAT HAVE BEEN SIMILAR AS OF LATE. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE/VORT
MAX AND WEAK...BUT SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL JETLET...WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIP AMTS AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.
ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING SAID CONVECTION. THIS
HAS OCCURRED A FEW TIMES THIS SUMMER SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF IT DOES SO AGAIN. FOR NOW...MOSTLY KEPT POPS AS IS IF NOT
RAISING THEM SOME. MOST PRECIP WILL END BY THE EVENING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW
STARTS TO DROP DOWN THE COAST. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW DOES MOVE THE
END RESULT IS THE SAME...LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT AS
IMPULSES CAUSE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. GFS IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE NAM12 REALLY
PULLS BACK. APPEARS GFS IS FOCUSING ON 70KT JET STREAK ALONG WITH
SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WHILE NAM...NOT SO
MUCH. CURRENT POPS LOOKED GOOD SO MINIMAL CHANGES THERE.

SATURDAY IS A MORE IN BETWEEN DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER NRN
CALIF/WRN NV BEGINS SWINGING EASTWARD CAUSING THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO DO LIKEWISE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SATURDAY
WHICH IS WHY MODELS ALSO SHOW MINIMAL CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SWUNG BACK NORTHWARD TO SRN MT AND AS IT
DOES SO..A WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO JUST CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AS THICKNESSES DROP WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ALSO DROPPING BY 8
TO 10 DEGREES. EVEN SO..SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CALM DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS
AS MOISTURE FUNNELS INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A TROUGH OUT WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY
AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOK TO RUN NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
BELOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SHORT WAVE OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SW COLORADO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED -TSRA SPREADING TOWARD THE I70 CORRIDOR. COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER 18Z...A TRANSITION FROM -SHRA TO -TSRA
WITH STRONGER STORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...MPM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 030539
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1139 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THE STORMS ARE A BIT LESS ROBUST
BUT ARE FAVORING MUCH OF THE SAME AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AS 24 HOURS
AGO. PWAT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS RUNNING JUST UNDER AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE MULTICELL STORM MODE
IS FAVORED. EXPECT SOME VALLEYS TO GET IN ON THE ACTION AS WELL
BUT MAINLY AS LIGHT PCPN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN COMING OFF THE
TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THAT CHANGES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER.
VERY DISTINCT CURL (MCV?) SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN SHEAR OUT ACROSS OUR
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NAM/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL AS A NEW SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. TWEAKED THE INHERITED POPS WHICH ALREADY HINTED WELL AT
THIS SCENARIO OF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES STAY UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THURSDAY
FOR REASONS THAT HAVE BEEN SIMILAR AS OF LATE. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE/VORT
MAX AND WEAK...BUT SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL JETLET...WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIP AMTS AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.
ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING SAID CONVECTION. THIS
HAS OCCURRED A FEW TIMES THIS SUMMER SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF IT DOES SO AGAIN. FOR NOW...MOSTLY KEPT POPS AS IS IF NOT
RAISING THEM SOME. MOST PRECIP WILL END BY THE EVENING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW
STARTS TO DROP DOWN THE COAST. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW DOES MOVE THE
END RESULT IS THE SAME...LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT AS
IMPULSES CAUSE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. GFS IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE NAM12 REALLY
PULLS BACK. APPEARS GFS IS FOCUSING ON 70KT JET STREAK ALONG WITH
SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WHILE NAM...NOT SO
MUCH. CURRENT POPS LOOKED GOOD SO MINIMAL CHANGES THERE.

SATURDAY IS A MORE IN BETWEEN DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER NRN
CALIF/WRN NV BEGINS SWINGING EASTWARD CAUSING THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO DO LIKEWISE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SATURDAY
WHICH IS WHY MODELS ALSO SHOW MINIMAL CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SWUNG BACK NORTHWARD TO SRN MT AND AS IT
DOES SO..A WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO JUST CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AS THICKNESSES DROP WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ALSO DROPPING BY 8
TO 10 DEGREES. EVEN SO..SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CALM DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS
AS MOISTURE FUNNELS INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A TROUGH OUT WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY
AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOK TO RUN NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
BELOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SHORT WAVE OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SW COLORADO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED -TSRA SPREADING TOWARD THE I70 CORRIDOR. COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER 18Z...A TRANSITION FROM -SHRA TO -TSRA
WITH STRONGER STORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...MPM



000
FXUS65 KPUB 030500
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD
MOVE INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT ANY
STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY
EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM
NORTHWESTERN NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS
REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
RATHER LOW CAPE (200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL STAY ISOLATED AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT ANY EVENING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG
ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGREES FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
SEE LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND
90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL
BE PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
MTS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...MON AFTERNOON AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. GENERALLY
VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA BUT MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY 18Z-00Z. HEAVY RAIN...FLASH
FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE MAIN STORM
THREATS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE AT KALS. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KALS 17Z-04Z THURSDAY. SECOND BEST CHANCE
OF A TERMINAL STORM IS AT KCOS. WILL CARRY VCTS THERE 18Z-04Z
THURSDAY. FOR KPUB...CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR WEST TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECAST SO NO MENTION
THERE AT THIS TIME. ALL 3 TAFS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMENDMENTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON PENDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030500
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD
MOVE INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT ANY
STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY
EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM
NORTHWESTERN NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS
REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
RATHER LOW CAPE (200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL STAY ISOLATED AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT ANY EVENING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG
ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGREES FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
SEE LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND
90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL
BE PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
MTS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...MON AFTERNOON AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. GENERALLY
VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA BUT MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY 18Z-00Z. HEAVY RAIN...FLASH
FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE MAIN STORM
THREATS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE AT KALS. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KALS 17Z-04Z THURSDAY. SECOND BEST CHANCE
OF A TERMINAL STORM IS AT KCOS. WILL CARRY VCTS THERE 18Z-04Z
THURSDAY. FOR KPUB...CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR WEST TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECAST SO NO MENTION
THERE AT THIS TIME. ALL 3 TAFS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMENDMENTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON PENDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 030500
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD
MOVE INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT ANY
STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY
EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM
NORTHWESTERN NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS
REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
RATHER LOW CAPE (200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL STAY ISOLATED AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT ANY EVENING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG
ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGREES FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
SEE LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND
90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL
BE PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
MTS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...MON AFTERNOON AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. GENERALLY
VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA BUT MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY 18Z-00Z. HEAVY RAIN...FLASH
FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE MAIN STORM
THREATS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE AT KALS. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KALS 17Z-04Z THURSDAY. SECOND BEST CHANCE
OF A TERMINAL STORM IS AT KCOS. WILL CARRY VCTS THERE 18Z-04Z
THURSDAY. FOR KPUB...CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR WEST TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECAST SO NO MENTION
THERE AT THIS TIME. ALL 3 TAFS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMENDMENTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON PENDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KBOU 030212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOOTHILLS AND DIVIDE. CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 00Z DENVER RAOB SHOWED WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 450MB.
ESSENTIALLY CAPPING MUCH OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. STILL MAY SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER EAST DENVER WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
AT BJC/APA WHILE DEN REMAINS UNDER SE WINDS. EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FURTHER EAST INTO DEN BETWEEN 03-04Z. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JEFFERSON AND PARK COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25 MPH. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 030212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOOTHILLS AND DIVIDE. CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 00Z DENVER RAOB SHOWED WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 450MB.
ESSENTIALLY CAPPING MUCH OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. STILL MAY SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER EAST DENVER WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
AT BJC/APA WHILE DEN REMAINS UNDER SE WINDS. EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FURTHER EAST INTO DEN BETWEEN 03-04Z. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JEFFERSON AND PARK COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25 MPH. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 030212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOOTHILLS AND DIVIDE. CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 00Z DENVER RAOB SHOWED WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 450MB.
ESSENTIALLY CAPPING MUCH OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. STILL MAY SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER EAST DENVER WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
AT BJC/APA WHILE DEN REMAINS UNDER SE WINDS. EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FURTHER EAST INTO DEN BETWEEN 03-04Z. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JEFFERSON AND PARK COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25 MPH. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 030212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOOTHILLS AND DIVIDE. CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 00Z DENVER RAOB SHOWED WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 450MB.
ESSENTIALLY CAPPING MUCH OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. STILL MAY SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER EAST DENVER WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
AT BJC/APA WHILE DEN REMAINS UNDER SE WINDS. EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FURTHER EAST INTO DEN BETWEEN 03-04Z. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JEFFERSON AND PARK COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25 MPH. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 030212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOOTHILLS AND DIVIDE. CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 00Z DENVER RAOB SHOWED WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 450MB.
ESSENTIALLY CAPPING MUCH OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. STILL MAY SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER EAST DENVER WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
AT BJC/APA WHILE DEN REMAINS UNDER SE WINDS. EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FURTHER EAST INTO DEN BETWEEN 03-04Z. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JEFFERSON AND PARK COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25 MPH. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 030111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
711 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NWD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE
INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE ERN
MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT
ANY STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
711 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NWD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE
INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE ERN
MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT
ANY STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 030111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
711 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NWD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE
INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE ERN
MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT
ANY STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 030111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
711 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NWD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE
INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE ERN
MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT
ANY STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030000
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THE STORMS ARE A BIT LESS ROBUST
BUT ARE FAVORING MUCH OF THE SAME AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AS 24 HOURS
AGO. PWAT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS RUNNING JUST UNDER AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE MULTICELL STORM MODE
IS FAVORED. EXPECT SOME VALLEYS TO GET IN ON THE ACTION AS WELL
BUT MAINLY AS LIGHT PCPN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN COMING OFF THE
TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THAT CHANGES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER.
VERY DISTINCT CURL (MCV?) SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN SHEAR OUT ACROSS OUR
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NAM/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL AS A NEW SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. TWEAKED THE INHERITED POPS WHICH ALREADY HINTED WELL AT
THIS SCENARIO OF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES STAY UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THURSDAY
FOR REASONS THAT HAVE BEEN SIMILAR AS OF LATE. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE/VORT
MAX AND WEAK...BUT SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL JETLET...WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIP AMTS AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.
ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING SAID CONVECTION. THIS
HAS OCCURRED A FEW TIMES THIS SUMMER SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF IT DOES SO AGAIN. FOR NOW...MOSTLY KEPT POPS AS IS IF NOT
RAISING THEM SOME. MOST PRECIP WILL END BY THE EVENING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW
STARTS TO DROP DOWN THE COAST. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW DOES MOVE THE
END RESULT IS THE SAME...LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT AS
IMPULSES CAUSE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. GFS IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE NAM12 REALLY
PULLS BACK. APPEARS GFS IS FOCUSING ON 70KT JET STREAK ALONG WITH
SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WHILE NAM...NOT SO
MUCH. CURRENT POPS LOOKED GOOD SO MINIMAL CHANGES THERE.

SATURDAY IS A MORE IN BETWEEN DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER NRN
CALIF/WRN NV BEGINS SWINGING EASTWARD CAUSING THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO DO LIKEWISE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SATURDAY
WHICH IS WHY MODELS ALSO SHOW MINIMAL CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SWUNG BACK NORTHWARD TO SRN MT AND AS IT
DOES SO..A WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO JUST CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AS THICKNESSES DROP WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ALSO DROPPING BY 8
TO 10 DEGREES. EVEN SO..SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CALM DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS
AS MOISTURE FUNNELS INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A TROUGH OUT WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY
AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOK TO RUN NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
BELOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SCATTERED BUT SHORT LIVED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 03Z THIS
EVENING OVER SW COLORADO. FOR NW COLORADO...ANY -TSRA WILL BE
LOCAL AND SHORT LIVED.

A SHORT WAVE OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SW COLORADO
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED -SHRA SPREADING TOWARD THE I70
CORRIDOR. CIGS MAY FALL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KTEX AND KDRO AS
-SHRA MOVE OVERHEAD. -SHRA WILL EVOLVE INTO -TSRA...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY WHEN -TSRA/-SHRA INCREASES WITH 30-50 PERCENT
AREAL COVERAGE.

NORTHEAST UTAH...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...THEN ISOLATED -TSRA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 030000
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THE STORMS ARE A BIT LESS ROBUST
BUT ARE FAVORING MUCH OF THE SAME AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AS 24 HOURS
AGO. PWAT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS RUNNING JUST UNDER AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE MULTICELL STORM MODE
IS FAVORED. EXPECT SOME VALLEYS TO GET IN ON THE ACTION AS WELL
BUT MAINLY AS LIGHT PCPN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN COMING OFF THE
TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THAT CHANGES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER.
VERY DISTINCT CURL (MCV?) SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN SHEAR OUT ACROSS OUR
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NAM/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL AS A NEW SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. TWEAKED THE INHERITED POPS WHICH ALREADY HINTED WELL AT
THIS SCENARIO OF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES STAY UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THURSDAY
FOR REASONS THAT HAVE BEEN SIMILAR AS OF LATE. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE/VORT
MAX AND WEAK...BUT SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL JETLET...WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIP AMTS AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.
ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING SAID CONVECTION. THIS
HAS OCCURRED A FEW TIMES THIS SUMMER SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF IT DOES SO AGAIN. FOR NOW...MOSTLY KEPT POPS AS IS IF NOT
RAISING THEM SOME. MOST PRECIP WILL END BY THE EVENING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW
STARTS TO DROP DOWN THE COAST. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW DOES MOVE THE
END RESULT IS THE SAME...LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT AS
IMPULSES CAUSE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. GFS IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE NAM12 REALLY
PULLS BACK. APPEARS GFS IS FOCUSING ON 70KT JET STREAK ALONG WITH
SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WHILE NAM...NOT SO
MUCH. CURRENT POPS LOOKED GOOD SO MINIMAL CHANGES THERE.

SATURDAY IS A MORE IN BETWEEN DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER NRN
CALIF/WRN NV BEGINS SWINGING EASTWARD CAUSING THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO DO LIKEWISE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SATURDAY
WHICH IS WHY MODELS ALSO SHOW MINIMAL CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SWUNG BACK NORTHWARD TO SRN MT AND AS IT
DOES SO..A WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO JUST CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AS THICKNESSES DROP WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ALSO DROPPING BY 8
TO 10 DEGREES. EVEN SO..SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CALM DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS
AS MOISTURE FUNNELS INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A TROUGH OUT WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY
AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOK TO RUN NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
BELOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SCATTERED BUT SHORT LIVED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 03Z THIS
EVENING OVER SW COLORADO. FOR NW COLORADO...ANY -TSRA WILL BE
LOCAL AND SHORT LIVED.

A SHORT WAVE OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SW COLORADO
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED -SHRA SPREADING TOWARD THE I70
CORRIDOR. CIGS MAY FALL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KTEX AND KDRO AS
-SHRA MOVE OVERHEAD. -SHRA WILL EVOLVE INTO -TSRA...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY WHEN -TSRA/-SHRA INCREASES WITH 30-50 PERCENT
AREAL COVERAGE.

NORTHEAST UTAH...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...THEN ISOLATED -TSRA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KPUB 022108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 022108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 022108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 022108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 022106
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
306 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THE STORMS ARE A BIT LESS ROBUST
BUT ARE FAVORING MUCH OF THE SAME AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AS 24 HOURS
AGO. PWAT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS RUNNING JUST UNDER AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE MULTICELL STORM MODE
IS FAVORED. EXPECT SOME VALLEYS TO GET IN ON THE ACTION AS WELL
BUT MAINLY AS LIGHT PCPN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN COMING OFF THE
TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THAT CHANGES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER.
VERY DISTINCT CURL (MCV?) SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN SHEAR OUT ACROSS OUR
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NAM/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL AS A NEW SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. TWEAKED THE INHERITED POPS WHICH ALREADY HINTED WELL AT
THIS SCENARIO OF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES STAY UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THURSDAY
FOR REASONS THAT HAVE BEEN SIMILAR AS OF LATE. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE/VORT
MAX AND WEAK...BUT SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL JETLET...WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIP AMTS AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.
ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING SAID CONVECTION. THIS
HAS OCCURRED A FEW TIMES THIS SUMMER SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF IT DOES SO AGAIN. FOR NOW...MOSTLY KEPT POPS AS IS IF NOT
RAISING THEM SOME. MOST PRECIP WILL END BY THE EVENING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW
STARTS TO DROP DOWN THE COAST. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW DOES MOVE THE
END RESULT IS THE SAME...LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT AS
IMPULSES CAUSE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. GFS IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE NAM12 REALLY
PULLS BACK. APPEARS GFS IS FOCUSING ON 70KT JET STREAK ALONG WITH
SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WHILE NAM...NOT SO
MUCH. CURRENT POPS LOOKED GOOD SO MINIMAL CHANGES THERE.

SATURDAY IS A MORE IN BETWEEN DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER NRN
CALIF/WRN NV BEGINS SWINGING EASTWARD CAUSING THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO DO LIKEWISE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SATURDAY
WHICH IS WHY MODELS ALSO SHOW MINIMAL CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SWUNG BACK NORTHWARD TO SRN MT AND AS IT
DOES SO..A WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO JUST CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AS THICKNESSES DROP WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ALSO DROPPING BY 8
TO 10 DEGREES. EVEN SO..SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CALM DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS
AS MOISTURE FUNNELS INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A TROUGH OUT WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY
AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOK TO RUN NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
BELOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING AT AREA
FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER IMPACTS FROM
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NEED TO BE PLANNED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES FROM KTEX TO KASE. KRIL AND KEGE MAY BE IMPACTED BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN TODAY. CIGS MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY REACH ILS BREAK POINTS IN
SOME AREAS. UPVALLEY WINDS INTO KASE MAY ALSO IMPACT LANDING
OPERATIONS THIS FROM 02/19Z TO 03/01Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 022106
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
306 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THE STORMS ARE A BIT LESS ROBUST
BUT ARE FAVORING MUCH OF THE SAME AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AS 24 HOURS
AGO. PWAT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS RUNNING JUST UNDER AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE MULTICELL STORM MODE
IS FAVORED. EXPECT SOME VALLEYS TO GET IN ON THE ACTION AS WELL
BUT MAINLY AS LIGHT PCPN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN COMING OFF THE
TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THAT CHANGES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER.
VERY DISTINCT CURL (MCV?) SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN SHEAR OUT ACROSS OUR
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NAM/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL AS A NEW SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. TWEAKED THE INHERITED POPS WHICH ALREADY HINTED WELL AT
THIS SCENARIO OF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES STAY UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THURSDAY
FOR REASONS THAT HAVE BEEN SIMILAR AS OF LATE. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE/VORT
MAX AND WEAK...BUT SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL JETLET...WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIP AMTS AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.
ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING SAID CONVECTION. THIS
HAS OCCURRED A FEW TIMES THIS SUMMER SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF IT DOES SO AGAIN. FOR NOW...MOSTLY KEPT POPS AS IS IF NOT
RAISING THEM SOME. MOST PRECIP WILL END BY THE EVENING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW
STARTS TO DROP DOWN THE COAST. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW DOES MOVE THE
END RESULT IS THE SAME...LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT AS
IMPULSES CAUSE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. GFS IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE NAM12 REALLY
PULLS BACK. APPEARS GFS IS FOCUSING ON 70KT JET STREAK ALONG WITH
SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WHILE NAM...NOT SO
MUCH. CURRENT POPS LOOKED GOOD SO MINIMAL CHANGES THERE.

SATURDAY IS A MORE IN BETWEEN DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER NRN
CALIF/WRN NV BEGINS SWINGING EASTWARD CAUSING THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO DO LIKEWISE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SATURDAY
WHICH IS WHY MODELS ALSO SHOW MINIMAL CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SWUNG BACK NORTHWARD TO SRN MT AND AS IT
DOES SO..A WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO JUST CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AS THICKNESSES DROP WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ALSO DROPPING BY 8
TO 10 DEGREES. EVEN SO..SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CALM DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS
AS MOISTURE FUNNELS INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A TROUGH OUT WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY
AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOK TO RUN NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
BELOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING AT AREA
FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER IMPACTS FROM
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NEED TO BE PLANNED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES FROM KTEX TO KASE. KRIL AND KEGE MAY BE IMPACTED BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN TODAY. CIGS MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY REACH ILS BREAK POINTS IN
SOME AREAS. UPVALLEY WINDS INTO KASE MAY ALSO IMPACT LANDING
OPERATIONS THIS FROM 02/19Z TO 03/01Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 022106
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
306 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THE STORMS ARE A BIT LESS ROBUST
BUT ARE FAVORING MUCH OF THE SAME AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AS 24 HOURS
AGO. PWAT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS RUNNING JUST UNDER AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE MULTICELL STORM MODE
IS FAVORED. EXPECT SOME VALLEYS TO GET IN ON THE ACTION AS WELL
BUT MAINLY AS LIGHT PCPN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN COMING OFF THE
TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THAT CHANGES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER.
VERY DISTINCT CURL (MCV?) SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN SHEAR OUT ACROSS OUR
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NAM/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL AS A NEW SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. TWEAKED THE INHERITED POPS WHICH ALREADY HINTED WELL AT
THIS SCENARIO OF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES STAY UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THURSDAY
FOR REASONS THAT HAVE BEEN SIMILAR AS OF LATE. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE/VORT
MAX AND WEAK...BUT SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL JETLET...WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIP AMTS AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.
ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING SAID CONVECTION. THIS
HAS OCCURRED A FEW TIMES THIS SUMMER SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF IT DOES SO AGAIN. FOR NOW...MOSTLY KEPT POPS AS IS IF NOT
RAISING THEM SOME. MOST PRECIP WILL END BY THE EVENING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW
STARTS TO DROP DOWN THE COAST. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW DOES MOVE THE
END RESULT IS THE SAME...LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT AS
IMPULSES CAUSE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. GFS IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE NAM12 REALLY
PULLS BACK. APPEARS GFS IS FOCUSING ON 70KT JET STREAK ALONG WITH
SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WHILE NAM...NOT SO
MUCH. CURRENT POPS LOOKED GOOD SO MINIMAL CHANGES THERE.

SATURDAY IS A MORE IN BETWEEN DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER NRN
CALIF/WRN NV BEGINS SWINGING EASTWARD CAUSING THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO DO LIKEWISE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SATURDAY
WHICH IS WHY MODELS ALSO SHOW MINIMAL CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SWUNG BACK NORTHWARD TO SRN MT AND AS IT
DOES SO..A WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO JUST CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AS THICKNESSES DROP WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ALSO DROPPING BY 8
TO 10 DEGREES. EVEN SO..SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CALM DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS
AS MOISTURE FUNNELS INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A TROUGH OUT WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY
AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOK TO RUN NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
BELOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING AT AREA
FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER IMPACTS FROM
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NEED TO BE PLANNED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES FROM KTEX TO KASE. KRIL AND KEGE MAY BE IMPACTED BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN TODAY. CIGS MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY REACH ILS BREAK POINTS IN
SOME AREAS. UPVALLEY WINDS INTO KASE MAY ALSO IMPACT LANDING
OPERATIONS THIS FROM 02/19Z TO 03/01Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 022106
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
306 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THE STORMS ARE A BIT LESS ROBUST
BUT ARE FAVORING MUCH OF THE SAME AREA OF DEVELOPMENT AS 24 HOURS
AGO. PWAT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS RUNNING JUST UNDER AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE MULTICELL STORM MODE
IS FAVORED. EXPECT SOME VALLEYS TO GET IN ON THE ACTION AS WELL
BUT MAINLY AS LIGHT PCPN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN COMING OFF THE
TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THAT CHANGES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER.
VERY DISTINCT CURL (MCV?) SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN SHEAR OUT ACROSS OUR
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NAM/GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL AS A NEW SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. TWEAKED THE INHERITED POPS WHICH ALREADY HINTED WELL AT
THIS SCENARIO OF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES STAY UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THURSDAY
FOR REASONS THAT HAVE BEEN SIMILAR AS OF LATE. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE/VORT
MAX AND WEAK...BUT SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL JETLET...WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIP AMTS AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE.
ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING SAID CONVECTION. THIS
HAS OCCURRED A FEW TIMES THIS SUMMER SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF IT DOES SO AGAIN. FOR NOW...MOSTLY KEPT POPS AS IS IF NOT
RAISING THEM SOME. MOST PRECIP WILL END BY THE EVENING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW
STARTS TO DROP DOWN THE COAST. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW DOES MOVE THE
END RESULT IS THE SAME...LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT AS
IMPULSES CAUSE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. GFS IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE NAM12 REALLY
PULLS BACK. APPEARS GFS IS FOCUSING ON 70KT JET STREAK ALONG WITH
SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WHILE NAM...NOT SO
MUCH. CURRENT POPS LOOKED GOOD SO MINIMAL CHANGES THERE.

SATURDAY IS A MORE IN BETWEEN DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER NRN
CALIF/WRN NV BEGINS SWINGING EASTWARD CAUSING THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO DO LIKEWISE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP SATURDAY
WHICH IS WHY MODELS ALSO SHOW MINIMAL CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE SWUNG BACK NORTHWARD TO SRN MT AND AS IT
DOES SO..A WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO JUST CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AS THICKNESSES DROP WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ALSO DROPPING BY 8
TO 10 DEGREES. EVEN SO..SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CALM DAY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN TO THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS
AS MOISTURE FUNNELS INTO THE REGION THANKS TO A TROUGH OUT WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY
AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOK TO RUN NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
BELOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING AT AREA
FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER IMPACTS FROM
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NEED TO BE PLANNED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES FROM KTEX TO KASE. KRIL AND KEGE MAY BE IMPACTED BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN TODAY. CIGS MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY REACH ILS BREAK POINTS IN
SOME AREAS. UPVALLEY WINDS INTO KASE MAY ALSO IMPACT LANDING
OPERATIONS THIS FROM 02/19Z TO 03/01Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KBOU 022020
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
220 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORMS WILL FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. WITH WARMING ALOFT DO
NOT EXPECT PRIME CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AIRPORTS BUT
SOME OUTFLOWS COULD TURN WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY WSW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 022020
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
220 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORMS WILL FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. WITH WARMING ALOFT DO
NOT EXPECT PRIME CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AIRPORTS BUT
SOME OUTFLOWS COULD TURN WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY WSW WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021740
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
TODAY...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE A STORM NEAR KCOS ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL 21Z-
24Z...BUT PROBABLITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR
CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND PASSES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021740
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
TODAY...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE A STORM NEAR KCOS ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL 21Z-
24Z...BUT PROBABLITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR
CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND PASSES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021700
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS TODAY. WITH THE H5 VORT MAX PUSHING NORTH INTO SE
UTAH AND SW COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY AND NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BOUND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DESPITE THE LACK OF JET SUPPORT ALOFT. PULSES OF
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE AS A STREAM OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY
...STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE
EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO DUE
TO THE CLASH IN AIRMASSES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS. LATEST MODELS INDICATED A
90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT REIGNITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
THE SAN JUANS FAVORED.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...SOME OF THE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WILL SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1
INCH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...TO AROUND 0.80 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCARCE.

THE ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY WHICH
WAS DRIER...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...THAN FRIDAY. MODELS ROTATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN PACIFIC TROUGH
CAUSING THE MOISTURE PLUME A BIT TO THE EAST. PW VALUES FALL AS A
RESULT SO...WITH LESS FUEL AVAILABLE...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
REDUCED. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
DRAWING FROM ARID AIR OVER THE WEST. DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO AMASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATED A SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE EC...THIS WILL KEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE GFS WAS SHALLOWER IN DEPTH WHICH FAILS
TO KEEP MOISTURE AT BAY. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR SOME MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE SAN JUANS TO FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED BY CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL GENERALLY FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING AT AREA
FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER IMPACTS FROM
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NEED TO BE PLANNED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES FROM KTEX TO KASE. KRIL AND KEGE MAY BE IMPACTED BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN TODAY. CIGS MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY REACH ILS BREAK POINTS IN
SOME AREAS. UPVALLEY WINDS INTO KASE MAY ALSO IMPACT LANDING
OPERATIONS THIS FROM 02/19Z TO 03/01Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021700
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS TODAY. WITH THE H5 VORT MAX PUSHING NORTH INTO SE
UTAH AND SW COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY AND NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BOUND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DESPITE THE LACK OF JET SUPPORT ALOFT. PULSES OF
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE AS A STREAM OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY
...STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE
EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO DUE
TO THE CLASH IN AIRMASSES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS. LATEST MODELS INDICATED A
90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT REIGNITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
THE SAN JUANS FAVORED.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...SOME OF THE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WILL SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1
INCH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...TO AROUND 0.80 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCARCE.

THE ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY WHICH
WAS DRIER...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...THAN FRIDAY. MODELS ROTATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN PACIFIC TROUGH
CAUSING THE MOISTURE PLUME A BIT TO THE EAST. PW VALUES FALL AS A
RESULT SO...WITH LESS FUEL AVAILABLE...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
REDUCED. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
DRAWING FROM ARID AIR OVER THE WEST. DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO AMASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATED A SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE EC...THIS WILL KEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE GFS WAS SHALLOWER IN DEPTH WHICH FAILS
TO KEEP MOISTURE AT BAY. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR SOME MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE SAN JUANS TO FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED BY CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL GENERALLY FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING AT AREA
FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER IMPACTS FROM
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NEED TO BE PLANNED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES FROM KTEX TO KASE. KRIL AND KEGE MAY BE IMPACTED BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN TODAY. CIGS MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY REACH ILS BREAK POINTS IN
SOME AREAS. UPVALLEY WINDS INTO KASE MAY ALSO IMPACT LANDING
OPERATIONS THIS FROM 02/19Z TO 03/01Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021700
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS TODAY. WITH THE H5 VORT MAX PUSHING NORTH INTO SE
UTAH AND SW COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY AND NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BOUND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DESPITE THE LACK OF JET SUPPORT ALOFT. PULSES OF
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE AS A STREAM OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY
...STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE
EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO DUE
TO THE CLASH IN AIRMASSES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS. LATEST MODELS INDICATED A
90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT REIGNITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
THE SAN JUANS FAVORED.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...SOME OF THE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WILL SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1
INCH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...TO AROUND 0.80 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCARCE.

THE ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY WHICH
WAS DRIER...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...THAN FRIDAY. MODELS ROTATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN PACIFIC TROUGH
CAUSING THE MOISTURE PLUME A BIT TO THE EAST. PW VALUES FALL AS A
RESULT SO...WITH LESS FUEL AVAILABLE...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
REDUCED. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
DRAWING FROM ARID AIR OVER THE WEST. DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO AMASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATED A SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE EC...THIS WILL KEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE GFS WAS SHALLOWER IN DEPTH WHICH FAILS
TO KEEP MOISTURE AT BAY. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR SOME MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE SAN JUANS TO FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED BY CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL GENERALLY FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING AT AREA
FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER IMPACTS FROM
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NEED TO BE PLANNED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES FROM KTEX TO KASE. KRIL AND KEGE MAY BE IMPACTED BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN TODAY. CIGS MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY REACH ILS BREAK POINTS IN
SOME AREAS. UPVALLEY WINDS INTO KASE MAY ALSO IMPACT LANDING
OPERATIONS THIS FROM 02/19Z TO 03/01Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021700
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS TODAY. WITH THE H5 VORT MAX PUSHING NORTH INTO SE
UTAH AND SW COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY AND NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BOUND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DESPITE THE LACK OF JET SUPPORT ALOFT. PULSES OF
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE AS A STREAM OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY
...STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE
EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO DUE
TO THE CLASH IN AIRMASSES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS. LATEST MODELS INDICATED A
90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT REIGNITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
THE SAN JUANS FAVORED.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...SOME OF THE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WILL SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1
INCH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...TO AROUND 0.80 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCARCE.

THE ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY WHICH
WAS DRIER...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...THAN FRIDAY. MODELS ROTATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN PACIFIC TROUGH
CAUSING THE MOISTURE PLUME A BIT TO THE EAST. PW VALUES FALL AS A
RESULT SO...WITH LESS FUEL AVAILABLE...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
REDUCED. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
DRAWING FROM ARID AIR OVER THE WEST. DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO AMASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATED A SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE EC...THIS WILL KEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE GFS WAS SHALLOWER IN DEPTH WHICH FAILS
TO KEEP MOISTURE AT BAY. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR SOME MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE SAN JUANS TO FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED BY CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL GENERALLY FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING AT AREA
FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER IMPACTS FROM
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NEED TO BE PLANNED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES FROM KTEX TO KASE. KRIL AND KEGE MAY BE IMPACTED BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN TODAY. CIGS MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY REACH ILS BREAK POINTS IN
SOME AREAS. UPVALLEY WINDS INTO KASE MAY ALSO IMPACT LANDING
OPERATIONS THIS FROM 02/19Z TO 03/01Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KBOU 021523
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE STILL
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF PARK COUNTY AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-70 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER PARK COUNTY AND AREAS CLOSE TO
THE PLAINS WEST OF I-25. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE DENVER
AREA BUT CURRENT UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAT COULD PRODUCE ONLY VIRGA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TAFS WITH EXPECTED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VCSH WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BKN DECK AND SOME VIRGA/SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 021523
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE STILL
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF PARK COUNTY AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-70 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER PARK COUNTY AND AREAS CLOSE TO
THE PLAINS WEST OF I-25. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE DENVER
AREA BUT CURRENT UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAT COULD PRODUCE ONLY VIRGA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TAFS WITH EXPECTED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VCSH WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BKN DECK AND SOME VIRGA/SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 021523
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE STILL
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF PARK COUNTY AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-70 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER PARK COUNTY AND AREAS CLOSE TO
THE PLAINS WEST OF I-25. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE DENVER
AREA BUT CURRENT UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAT COULD PRODUCE ONLY VIRGA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TAFS WITH EXPECTED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VCSH WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BKN DECK AND SOME VIRGA/SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 021053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES(WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIMES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIMES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIMES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIMES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE SHORT-TERM AS
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS RESIDE) IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS...REAL/NEAR TIME DATA
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
LOW GRADE PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIMES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL...FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. IF A
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

AS UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING TO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CWFA INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THU AND FRI AS AN UPR
RIDGE SITS OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  THIS FLOW WL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CO...ALLOWING FOR GOOD PCPN CHANCES
OVR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD.  OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CO PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.  BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN NV.  THE MOIST FLOW INTO
THE AREA CONTINUES SAT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED OR HIGHER PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPR TROF LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUN...INTO EASTERN MT...WITH AN
UPR RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER TX.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEING CUT OFF THIS DAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SUN NIGHT A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY MON AFTERNOON.  A
BIT OF MONSOON MSTR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN CO MON
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  ON TUE AND UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM
NORTHER MEXICO INTO WESTERN TX...WITH A NEW UPR LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CO TUE WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAF SITES(ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION) AS CONTINUED RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PROJECT
THAT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



000
FXUS65 KBOU 021034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 10000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES
ESSENTIALLY UNLIMITED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE OUT ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRODUCTS FROM THE SHOWERS.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD SEE LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE
PASSING SHOWERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BE WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN WEAK
WIND FIELDS UNTIL GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 021034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 10000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES
ESSENTIALLY UNLIMITED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE OUT ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRODUCTS FROM THE SHOWERS.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD SEE LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE
PASSING SHOWERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BE WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN WEAK
WIND FIELDS UNTIL GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 021034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 10000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES
ESSENTIALLY UNLIMITED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE OUT ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRODUCTS FROM THE SHOWERS.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD SEE LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE
PASSING SHOWERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BE WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN WEAK
WIND FIELDS UNTIL GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 021034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANOTHER TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...A WARM
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER FORAY INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED
ALL AFTERNOON. THE ONLY PLAINS LOCATIONS WITH THE MENTION OF ANY
POPS WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LATER TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD ONE AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY ABOUT 9 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WRN US THU INTO FRI
WITH SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS AS WELL.  THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY
THU EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND .70" IN
THE MTNS WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.  OVER THE FAR PLAINS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCT.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NERN CO.

ON FRI APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NNE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THUS MAY SEE
ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHC
OVER THE PLAINS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY SAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
DECREASING CONSIDERABLY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS HOWEVER IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT THEN TSTM COVERAGE
OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE HIGHER.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WSW.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLD IF AT ALL.  MEANWHILE A WK COOL FNT MAY MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO IN THE AFTN HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S.

BY MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WSW WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THUS ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLD AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE NR SEASONAL LEVELS.  ON TUE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE WLY WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO TSTMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 10000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES
ESSENTIALLY UNLIMITED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE OUT ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRODUCTS FROM THE SHOWERS.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD SEE LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE
PASSING SHOWERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BE WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN WEAK
WIND FIELDS UNTIL GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021034
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS TODAY. WITH THE H5 VORT MAX PUSHING NORTH INTO SE
UTAH AND SW COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY AND NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BOUND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DESPITE THE LACK OF JET SUPPORT ALOFT. PULSES OF
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE AS A STREAM OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY
...STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE
EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO DUE
TO THE CLASH IN AIRMASSES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS. LATEST MODELS INDICATED A
90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT REIGNITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
THE SAN JUANS FAVORED.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...SOME OF THE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WILL SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1
INCH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...TO AROUND 0.80 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCARCE.

THE ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY WHICH
WAS DRIER...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...THAN FRIDAY. MODELS ROTATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN PACIFIC TROUGH
CAUSING THE MOISTURE PLUME A BIT TO THE EAST. PW VALUES FALL AS A
RESULT SO...WITH LESS FUEL AVAILABLE...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
REDUCED. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
DRAWING FROM ARID AIR OVER THE WEST. DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO AMASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATED A SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE EC...THIS WILL KEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE GFS WAS SHALLOWER IN DEPTH WHICH FAILS
TO KEEP MOISTURE AT BAY. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR SOME MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE SAN JUANS TO FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED BY CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL GENERALLY FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z. DAYTIME HEATING WORKING
ON LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM 18Z THROUGH 03Z/THU. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER AIRPORTS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ITS UNLIKELY THAT CIGS WILL
DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS...HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 03Z...BUY MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS PAST
MIDNIGHT. AFTER 09Z...A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021034
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS TODAY. WITH THE H5 VORT MAX PUSHING NORTH INTO SE
UTAH AND SW COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY AND NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BOUND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DESPITE THE LACK OF JET SUPPORT ALOFT. PULSES OF
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE AS A STREAM OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY
...STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE
EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO DUE
TO THE CLASH IN AIRMASSES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS. LATEST MODELS INDICATED A
90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT REIGNITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
THE SAN JUANS FAVORED.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...SOME OF THE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WILL SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1
INCH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...TO AROUND 0.80 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCARCE.

THE ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY WHICH
WAS DRIER...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...THAN FRIDAY. MODELS ROTATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN PACIFIC TROUGH
CAUSING THE MOISTURE PLUME A BIT TO THE EAST. PW VALUES FALL AS A
RESULT SO...WITH LESS FUEL AVAILABLE...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
REDUCED. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
DRAWING FROM ARID AIR OVER THE WEST. DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO AMASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATED A SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE EC...THIS WILL KEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE GFS WAS SHALLOWER IN DEPTH WHICH FAILS
TO KEEP MOISTURE AT BAY. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR SOME MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE SAN JUANS TO FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED BY CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL GENERALLY FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z. DAYTIME HEATING WORKING
ON LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM 18Z THROUGH 03Z/THU. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER AIRPORTS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ITS UNLIKELY THAT CIGS WILL
DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS...HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30
TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 03Z...BUY MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS PAST
MIDNIGHT. AFTER 09Z...A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities