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000
FXUS65 KPUB 251114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
514 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH HIGHS REACHING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RECORDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT
WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ON WEST FACING PEAKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
40S TO 50S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...WEAK FALL SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK FALL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM STILL LOOKS QUICK MOVING AND
MAINLY TO IMPACT THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 50 AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION.

THERE IS A NEW AREA THAT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN AT LEAST THE PAST 2 NAM12 MODEL RUNS. THE PRECIP SWATH RUNS IN
A BAND FROM THE LA GARITAS...EASTWARD ACROSS FREMONT...SOUTHERN
TELLER AND NORTHERN CUSTER COUNTIES...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
PUEBLO...SOUTHERN EL PASO...CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES.

THE BAND SEEMS TO BE GENERATED BY THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. THE BAND...AS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS...IS ORIENTED
WITH THE JET AND FLARES UP AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHOW A BRIEF RESPONSE TO
THE DISTURBANCE...TURNING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. THIS IS A FAVORABLE WIND FOR PRECIP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SO...WILL BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE UNDER THIS BAND
BRIEFLY TO SCATTERED MONDAY EVENING AS THIS QUICK MOVING FEATURE
MOVES ACROSS. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE GREAT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BY ANY
MEANS BUT A FEW HUNDRETHS TO MAYBE A 0.10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS.

SNOW LEVELS COME DOWN PRETTY GOOD BY MONDAY EVENING. BELIEVE THIS
IS A RESPONSE TO THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WITH THE MODEL
GENERATING PRECIP...IT IS ALSO COOLING THE AIR MASS IN RESPONSE TO
DIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP GENERATION. THE NAM12
TAKES H7 TEMPS DOWN TO -2C TO -3C IN THE AREA IMPACTED BY THE
BAND. AT THESE TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER DOWN TO ABOUT 6000
FEET UNDER THE BAND MONDAY EVENING. COULD EVEN BE SOME WET SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN BELOW THAT. CONSIDERING THE TEMPERATURES AND THE
LIGHT PRECIP INTENSITIES...NO BIG ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...BUT
COULD BE SOME LOCAL LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET ON
GRASSY AREAS. ALSO...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AROUND PIKES PEAK COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO MAYBE 4 INCHES FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAYBE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT GENERALLY DRY.

TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY MID
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MILDER BUT WITH
STILL A MARGINAL FROST/FREEZE THREAT. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLERS AND DISCONNECT GARDEN HOSES PRIOR TO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...PLANTS WOULD NEED TO BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INDOORS
TO EXTEND THEIR GROWING SEASON.

AFTER THE BRIEF FALL CHILL WRAPS UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER COLORADO TO BRING A RETURN TO DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 251114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
514 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH HIGHS REACHING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RECORDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT
WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ON WEST FACING PEAKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
40S TO 50S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...WEAK FALL SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK FALL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM STILL LOOKS QUICK MOVING AND
MAINLY TO IMPACT THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 50 AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION.

THERE IS A NEW AREA THAT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN AT LEAST THE PAST 2 NAM12 MODEL RUNS. THE PRECIP SWATH RUNS IN
A BAND FROM THE LA GARITAS...EASTWARD ACROSS FREMONT...SOUTHERN
TELLER AND NORTHERN CUSTER COUNTIES...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
PUEBLO...SOUTHERN EL PASO...CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES.

THE BAND SEEMS TO BE GENERATED BY THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. THE BAND...AS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS...IS ORIENTED
WITH THE JET AND FLARES UP AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHOW A BRIEF RESPONSE TO
THE DISTURBANCE...TURNING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. THIS IS A FAVORABLE WIND FOR PRECIP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SO...WILL BOOST SHOWER COVERAGE UNDER THIS BAND
BRIEFLY TO SCATTERED MONDAY EVENING AS THIS QUICK MOVING FEATURE
MOVES ACROSS. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE GREAT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BY ANY
MEANS BUT A FEW HUNDRETHS TO MAYBE A 0.10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS.

SNOW LEVELS COME DOWN PRETTY GOOD BY MONDAY EVENING. BELIEVE THIS
IS A RESPONSE TO THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WITH THE MODEL
GENERATING PRECIP...IT IS ALSO COOLING THE AIR MASS IN RESPONSE TO
DIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP GENERATION. THE NAM12
TAKES H7 TEMPS DOWN TO -2C TO -3C IN THE AREA IMPACTED BY THE
BAND. AT THESE TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER DOWN TO ABOUT 6000
FEET UNDER THE BAND MONDAY EVENING. COULD EVEN BE SOME WET SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN BELOW THAT. CONSIDERING THE TEMPERATURES AND THE
LIGHT PRECIP INTENSITIES...NO BIG ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...BUT
COULD BE SOME LOCAL LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET ON
GRASSY AREAS. ALSO...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AROUND PIKES PEAK COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO MAYBE 4 INCHES FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAYBE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT GENERALLY DRY.

TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY MID
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MILDER BUT WITH
STILL A MARGINAL FROST/FREEZE THREAT. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLERS AND DISCONNECT GARDEN HOSES PRIOR TO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...PLANTS WOULD NEED TO BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INDOORS
TO EXTEND THEIR GROWING SEASON.

AFTER THE BRIEF FALL CHILL WRAPS UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER COLORADO TO BRING A RETURN TO DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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000
FXUS65 KBOU 250953
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER COLORADO TODAY WITH A DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS. SHOULD BE A CLOUDLESS DAYTIME WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS
AGAIN 80 DEGREES AT DENVER AND READINGS TODAY WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND THAT 80 DEGREE MARK.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OF COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS
CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASING TO 40KT AND MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
50-60 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS LATER TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGE TO
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE WINDS A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT. SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TNT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS UNTIL SUNDAY DAYTIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT QUITE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
ABOUT 50 KTS OF CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW AROUND 650 MB WITH A MINIMUM
OF 15 KT AROUND 450 MB. NOT THE BEST MOUNTAIN WAVE/DOWNSLOPING
WIND PATTERN BUT STILL QUITE GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 TO
50 MPH IN THE UPPER FOOTHILLS IN THE NORMAL WINDY SPOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE STATE
DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE
LINE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHED IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED
TO TODAY. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE THIS EFFECT FIRST AND WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. THIS WILL HELP HUMIDITY
NOT BOTTOM OUT TOO MUCH WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...SO RIGHT NOW NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED AS HUMIDITY READINGS LOOK TO STAY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY PRETTY GUSTY AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINS NEARING. MOISTURE...WHICH SEEMS
MEAGER WITH BETTER AMOUNTS FOUND FURTHER NORTH...IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
10 THOUSAND FEET OR HIGHER. A BETTER PUSH LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE
EVENING WHERE SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO NEAR 8000 FEET...EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY MAY BE CLOSER TO 6000.

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS
THIS OCCURS. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WHILE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS...AIRMASS SEEMS QUITE DRY. LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY...BUT KEPT A CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SLIGHT COOLING BEFORE ADDITIONAL WARMTH
MOVES IN FRIDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL OF TODAY. SURFACE WINDS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...STARTING SOUTHERLY AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10KT. MAY SEE
A BIT STRONGER WEST WIND SURFACING AT BJC LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 250904
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND SUNNY DAY TODAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OUR ENTIRE CWA
SHOULD STILL EXPERIENCE MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...
WHICH MEANS NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

310K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH WITH ENHANCED 75KT JET
SUPPORT ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS ITERATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PWATS STRUGGLE TO REACH ONE HALF INCH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AT FAIRLY HIGH LEVELS. WITH 75KT JET
DIVERGENCE AVAILABLE...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
VALLEYS UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WELL DEFINED NARROW AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SEEN WITH THE SYSTEM
EARLIER THIS WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF GJT BUT ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE ALONG I-70 FROM ABOUT RIFLE AND EAST. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. KEPT
CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST MONDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY UNDER A NW
FLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD GET CLOSE TO FREEZING...IF
NOT BELOW FREEZING...IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO WHICH HAVE NOT ALREADY EXPERIENCED WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL. MODELS...ESPECIALLY EC...
STILL SHOWING A LITTLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO THIS COULD BE AN IMPORTANT
FACTOR WHEN CONSIDERING ANY FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING.

GENERALLY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GFS BRINGS NEXT MIGRATORY
UPPER RIDGE INTO OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WHILE EC IS ABOUT 24 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
CWA. EITHER WAY IT SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY DRY FOR OUR CWA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IMPLIES A FASTER RATE OF
WARMING THAN THE EC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 BY 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/JRP
AVIATION...JRP




000
FXUS65 KPUB 250528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES...

SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...PUB HAS HIT 84 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 83 IN 2011...COS AND ALS HAVE BOTH TIED THEIR RECORDS OF
78 AND 70 RESPECTIVELY...ALSO SET IN 2011. BUT WITH AN HOUR MORE OF
HEATING TO GO THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THESE LOCATIONS TO BUMP UP
ANOTHER DEGREE. TIME WILL TELL.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE UPPER HIGH TO THE
SOUTH.  H7 TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOOK LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE OF
TODAY. IN FACT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALOFT AND THIS COULD AID MIXING A BIT.  THUS ANOTHER
DAY OF RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED.  RECORD HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE A LITTLE WARMER (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959)...BUT SEEMS THAT PUB AND COS COULD COME CLOSE OR
BREAK RECORDS TOMORROW.  OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.  WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD GET
BREEZY IN SPOTS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW...BUT
WINDS DON`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...DRY AND WARM WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NOVEMBER...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY UNEVENTFUL. THE WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS MID 80S...SINCE TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT LOOK
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE WARMER MOS VALUES...EVEN WITH
MODERATE WRLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME MARGINALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON
AS RH VALUES NR 15 PERCENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO THE CENTRAL MTS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MON AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES
ERN CO. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WOULD BRING MORE QPF...ESPECIALLY TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE NCEP
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SYSTEM...SO WILL LEAVE BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE
POPS...AROUND 10 PERCENT...FOR THE LOWLANDS. BUT THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP
FOR THIS AREA. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO BRING US CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN WE
COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
MTS COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS...GENERALLY AN INCH OR
TWO... FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET.

WE HEAD INTO A PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE TROUGH QUICKLY
DEPARTS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA WED NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY...AND THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL AVGS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD STRONGLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STUCK IN A DRY AND WARM PATTERN...AND IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN ANY TIME SOON. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO THE NEXT 24 HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT DIURNAL
WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250402
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1001 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION LANGUISHED UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES SO SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL JUST A BIT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT DEEP MIXING
WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM. IN FACT
...GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A WEAK
SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT BECOMING A BIT MILDER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SATURDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY UNDER THE STRAIN OF
THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE LEFT COAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. ON THE
SATELLITE SCOPE THIS AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS NOW EXPANDING ACROSS THE
WEST BUT THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES LIE UPSTREAM. A ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET IS REFORMING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY AND TAPPING INTO A NARROW FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.
FARTHER SOUTH DERIVED IMAGERY IS SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACTUALLY MOVING UP THE BAJA COAST DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE WESTERN RIDGE...WHILE FARTHER WEST A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROP JET
IS PUSHING MOSITURE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THETA SURFACES SHOW
THIS SOURCE OF MOISTURE DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
OUR FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. PWAT
INCREASES UP TO NEAR HALF OF AN INCH BUT CROSS SECTION SHOW THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND OUTSIDE OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. THERE IS SOME JET DYNAMICS TO ADD ASCENT TO
OROGRAPHICS BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT MUCH WILL COME OUT OF IT BESIDES
VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND HIGHS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY APPEAR TO FOCUS NORTH...THEN EAST...THEN SOUTH OF OUR CWA
LOOKING AT THE QG PARAMETERS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE PAST MODELS
RUNS REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WITH THIS
CONFIDENCE DID BOOST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE PARK AND FLAT TOPS
FAVORED IN WESTERLY FLOW. JET FORCING AND OROGRAPHICS WILL COMBINE
WITH FRONTAL FORCING...CAA AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WE SHOULD THE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR SNOWFALL...BUT FOR ONLY ABOUT 6
TO 8 HOURS. WILL WATCH THE TREND BUT IT APPEARS 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE
PEAKS IS STILL VALID. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
DRYING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT
BEST IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
DROPS TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND WILL BE A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PAST WEEK OR SO. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING MAY BRING SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO SOME AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME...BUT GUIDANCE NOT TRENDING THIS WAY YET.
RIDGING RETURNS BEYOND THIS WITH ANOTHER DRY WARMUP EXPECTED TO
END OUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250402
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1001 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION LANGUISHED UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES SO SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL JUST A BIT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT DEEP MIXING
WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM. IN FACT
...GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A WEAK
SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT BECOMING A BIT MILDER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SATURDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY UNDER THE STRAIN OF
THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE LEFT COAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. ON THE
SATELLITE SCOPE THIS AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS NOW EXPANDING ACROSS THE
WEST BUT THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES LIE UPSTREAM. A ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET IS REFORMING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY AND TAPPING INTO A NARROW FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.
FARTHER SOUTH DERIVED IMAGERY IS SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACTUALLY MOVING UP THE BAJA COAST DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE WESTERN RIDGE...WHILE FARTHER WEST A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROP JET
IS PUSHING MOSITURE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THETA SURFACES SHOW
THIS SOURCE OF MOISTURE DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
OUR FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. PWAT
INCREASES UP TO NEAR HALF OF AN INCH BUT CROSS SECTION SHOW THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND OUTSIDE OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. THERE IS SOME JET DYNAMICS TO ADD ASCENT TO
OROGRAPHICS BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT MUCH WILL COME OUT OF IT BESIDES
VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND HIGHS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY APPEAR TO FOCUS NORTH...THEN EAST...THEN SOUTH OF OUR CWA
LOOKING AT THE QG PARAMETERS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE PAST MODELS
RUNS REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WITH THIS
CONFIDENCE DID BOOST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE PARK AND FLAT TOPS
FAVORED IN WESTERLY FLOW. JET FORCING AND OROGRAPHICS WILL COMBINE
WITH FRONTAL FORCING...CAA AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WE SHOULD THE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR SNOWFALL...BUT FOR ONLY ABOUT 6
TO 8 HOURS. WILL WATCH THE TREND BUT IT APPEARS 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE
PEAKS IS STILL VALID. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
DRYING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT
BEST IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
DROPS TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND WILL BE A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PAST WEEK OR SO. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING MAY BRING SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO SOME AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME...BUT GUIDANCE NOT TRENDING THIS WAY YET.
RIDGING RETURNS BEYOND THIS WITH ANOTHER DRY WARMUP EXPECTED TO
END OUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250359
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
959 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION LANGUISHED UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES SO SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL JUST A BIT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT DEEP MIXING
WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM. IN FACT
...GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A WEAK
SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT BECOMING A BIT MILDER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SATURDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY UNDER THE STRAIN OF
THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE LEFT COAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. ON THE
SATELLITE SCOPE THIS AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS NOW EXPANDING ACROSS THE
WEST BUT THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES LIE UPSTREAM. A ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET IS REFORMING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY AND TAPPING INTO A NARROW FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.
FARTHER SOUTH DERIVED IMAGERY IS SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACTUALLY MOVING UP THE BAJA COAST DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE WESTERN RIDGE...WHILE FARTHER WEST A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROP JET
IS PUSHING MOSITURE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THETA SURFACES SHOW
THIS SOURCE OF MOISTURE DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
OUR FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. PWAT
INCREASES UP TO NEAR HALF OF AN INCH BUT CROSS SECTION SHOW THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND OUTSIDE OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. THERE IS SOME JET DYNAMICS TO ADD ASCENT TO
OROGRAPHICS BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT MUCH WILL COME OUT OF IT BESIDES
VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND HIGHS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY APPEAR TO FOCUS NORTH...THEN EAST...THEN SOUTH OF OUR CWA
LOOKING AT THE QG PARAMETERS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE PAST MODELS
RUNS REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WITH THIS
CONFIDENCE DID BOOST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE PARK AND FLAT TOPS
FAVORED IN WESTERLY FLOW. JET FORCING AND OROGRAPHICS WILL COMBINE
WITH FRONTAL FORCING...CAA AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WE SHOULD THE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR SNOWFALL...BUT FOR ONLY ABOUT 6
TO 8 HOURS. WILL WATCH THE TREND BUT IT APPEARS 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE
PEAKS IS STILL VALID. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
DRYING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT
BEST IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
DROPS TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND WILL BE A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PAST WEEK OR SO. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING MAY BRING SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO SOME AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME...BUT GUIDANCE NOT TRENDING THIS WAY YET.
RIDGING RETURNS BEYOND THIS WITH ANOTHER DRY WARMUP EXPECTED TO
END OUT NEXT WEEK.&&

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250359
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
959 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION LANGUISHED UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES SO SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL JUST A BIT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT DEEP MIXING
WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM. IN FACT
...GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A WEAK
SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT BECOMING A BIT MILDER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SATURDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY UNDER THE STRAIN OF
THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE LEFT COAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. ON THE
SATELLITE SCOPE THIS AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS NOW EXPANDING ACROSS THE
WEST BUT THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES LIE UPSTREAM. A ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET IS REFORMING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY AND TAPPING INTO A NARROW FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.
FARTHER SOUTH DERIVED IMAGERY IS SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACTUALLY MOVING UP THE BAJA COAST DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE WESTERN RIDGE...WHILE FARTHER WEST A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROP JET
IS PUSHING MOSITURE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THETA SURFACES SHOW
THIS SOURCE OF MOISTURE DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
OUR FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. PWAT
INCREASES UP TO NEAR HALF OF AN INCH BUT CROSS SECTION SHOW THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND OUTSIDE OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. THERE IS SOME JET DYNAMICS TO ADD ASCENT TO
OROGRAPHICS BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT MUCH WILL COME OUT OF IT BESIDES
VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND HIGHS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY APPEAR TO FOCUS NORTH...THEN EAST...THEN SOUTH OF OUR CWA
LOOKING AT THE QG PARAMETERS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE PAST MODELS
RUNS REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WITH THIS
CONFIDENCE DID BOOST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE PARK AND FLAT TOPS
FAVORED IN WESTERLY FLOW. JET FORCING AND OROGRAPHICS WILL COMBINE
WITH FRONTAL FORCING...CAA AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WE SHOULD THE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR SNOWFALL...BUT FOR ONLY ABOUT 6
TO 8 HOURS. WILL WATCH THE TREND BUT IT APPEARS 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE
PEAKS IS STILL VALID. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
DRYING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT
BEST IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
DROPS TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND WILL BE A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PAST WEEK OR SO. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING MAY BRING SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO SOME AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME...BUT GUIDANCE NOT TRENDING THIS WAY YET.
RIDGING RETURNS BEYOND THIS WITH ANOTHER DRY WARMUP EXPECTED TO
END OUT NEXT WEEK.&&

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 250222
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
822 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD FREE OVERNIGHT WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SO
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT DRAINAGE. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
FULL SUNSHINE AND RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL DOMINATES NE COLORADO WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE NE BRINGING INCREASED WINDS TO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE
PLAINS WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR TOMORROW. LIKE TODAY
700 MB TEMPS ARE IN THE +10 TO +11 RANGE WHICH EQUATES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER POSSIBLE
RECORD BREAKING DAY WITH THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR
TOMORROW AT 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THIS TIME AROUND...AS MODELS
CONTINUE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NAM MODEL
SHOWS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS OF WIND AT 700 MB...SO THIS MAY MAKE THE
AFTERNOON A BREEZY ONE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT
PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LEVELS REACHED ON
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...SOME AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY BEGIN PICKING
UP SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SNOW LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE 8000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE VERY QUICKLY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD BE OVER BEFORE THE COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY WILL BE COOL AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE STATE. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING
LEVEL ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF OCTOBER. STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WINDS ARE EVENTUALLY SWITCHING TO NORMAL DRAINAGE BUT HAVE BEEN
DELAYED A BIT BY VERY WEAK DENVER CYCLONE. ON SATURDAY...NORMAL
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING TO LIGHT EASTERLY BY
19Z-20Z EXPECTED AGAIN. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUD FREE IN VERY DRY
AIRMASS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 242258
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
458 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION LANGUISHED UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES SO SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL JUST A BIT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT DEEP MIXING
WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM. IN FACT
...GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A WEAK
SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT BECOMING A BIT MILDER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SATURDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY UNDER THE STRAIN OF
THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE LEFT COAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. ON THE
SATELLITE SCOPE THIS AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS NOW EXPANDING ACROSS THE
WEST BUT THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES LIE UPSTREAM. A ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET IS REFORMING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY AND TAPPING INTO A NARROW FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.
FARTHER SOUTH DERIVED IMAGERY IS SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACTUALLY MOVING UP THE BAJA COAST DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE WESTERN RIDGE...WHILE FARTHER WEST A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROP JET
IS PUSHING MOSITURE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THETA SURFACES SHOW
THIS SOURCE OF MOISTURE DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
OUR FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. PWAT
INCREASES UP TO NEAR HALF OF AN INCH BUT CROSS SECTION SHOW THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND OUTSIDE OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. THERE IS SOME JET DYNAMICS TO ADD ASCENT TO
OROGRAPHICS BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT MUCH WILL COME OUT OF IT BESIDES
VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND HIGHS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY APPEAR TO FOCUS NORTH...THEN EAST...THEN SOUTH OF OUR CWA
LOOKING AT THE QG PARAMETERS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE PAST MODELS
RUNS REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WITH THIS
CONFIDENCE DID BOOST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE PARK AND FLAT TOPS
FAVORED IN WESTERLY FLOW. JET FORCING AND OROGRAPHICS WILL COMBINE
WITH FRONTAL FORCING...CAA AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WE SHOULD THE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR SNOWFALL...BUT FOR ONLY ABOUT 6
TO 8 HOURS. WILL WATCH THE TREND BUT IT APPEARS 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE
PEAKS IS STILL VALID. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
DRYING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT
BEST IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
DROPS TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND WILL BE A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PAST WEEK OR SO. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING MAY BRING SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO SOME AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME...BUT GUIDANCE NOT TRENDING THIS WAY YET.
RIDGING RETURNS BEYOND THIS WITH ANOTHER DRY WARMUP EXPECTED TO
END OUT NEXT WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER NEAR
CLOUDLESS SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 242133
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL DOMINATES NE COLORADO WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE NE BRINGING INCREASED WINDS TO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE
PLAINS WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR TOMORROW. LIKE TODAY
700 MB TEMPS ARE IN THE +10 TO +11 RANGE WHICH EQUATES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES. THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER POSSIBLE
RECORD BREAKING DAY WITH THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR
TOMORROW AT 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THIS TIME AROUND...AS MODELS
CONTINUE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NAM MODEL
SHOWS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS OF WIND AT 700 MB...SO THIS MAY MAKE THE
AFTERNOON A BREEZY ONE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT
PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LEVELS REACHED ON
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...SOME AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY BEGIN PICKING
UP SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SNOW LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE 8000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE VERY QUICKLY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD BE OVER BEFORE THE COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY WILL BE COOL AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE STATE. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING
LEVEL ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF OCTOBER. STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING TO CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO DIURNAL BY 06Z WITH VARIABLE WINDS RETURNING
BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 242124
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION LANGUISHED UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES SO SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL JUST A BIT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT DEEP MIXING
WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM. IN FACT
...GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A WEAK
SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT BECOMING A BIT MILDER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SATURDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY UNDER THE STRAIN OF
THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE LEFT COAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. ON THE
SATELLITE SCOPE THIS AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS NOW EXPANDING ACROSS THE
WEST BUT THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES LIE UPSTREAM. A ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM POLAR JET IS REFORMING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY AND TAPPING INTO A NARROW FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.
FARTHER SOUTH DERIVED IMAGERY IS SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACTUALLY MOVING UP THE BAJA COAST DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE WESTERN RIDGE...WHILE FARTHER WEST A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROP JET
IS PUSHING MOSITURE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THETA SURFACES SHOW
THIS SOURCE OF MOISTURE DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
OUR FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. PWAT
INCREASES UP TO NEAR HALF OF AN INCH BUT CROSS SECTION SHOW THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND OUTSIDE OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. THERE IS SOME JET DYNAMICS TO ADD ASCENT TO
OROGRAPHICS BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT MUCH WILL COME OUT OF IT BESIDES
VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOME
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND HIGHS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY APPEAR TO FOCUS NORTH...THEN EAST...THEN SOUTH OF OUR CWA
LOOKING AT THE QG PARAMETERS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE PAST MODELS
RUNS REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WITH THIS
CONFIDENCE DID BOOST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE PARK AND FLAT TOPS
FAVORED IN WESTERLY FLOW. JET FORCING AND OROGRAPHICS WILL COMBINE
WITH FRONTAL FORCING...CAA AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
WE SHOULD THE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR SNOWFALL...BUT FOR ONLY ABOUT 6
TO 8 HOURS. WILL WATCH THE TREND BUT IT APPEARS 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE
PEAKS IS STILL VALID. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
DRYING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT
BEST IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
DROPS TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND WILL BE A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PAST WEEK OR SO. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING MAY BRING SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO SOME AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME...BUT GUIDANCE NOT TRENDING THIS WAY YET.
RIDGING RETURNS BEYOND THIS WITH ANOTHER DRY WARMUP EXPECTED TO
END OUT NEXT WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KPUB 242108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES...

SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...PUB HAS HIT 84 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 83 IN 2011...COS AND ALS HAVE BOTH TIED THEIR RECORDS OF
78 AND 70 RESPECTIVELY...ALSO SET IN 2011. BUT WITH AN HOUR MORE OF
HEATING TO GO THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THESE LOCATIONS TO BUMP UP
ANOTHER DEGREE. TIME WILL TELL.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE UPPER HIGH TO THE
SOUTH.  H7 TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOOK LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE OF
TODAY. IN FACT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALOFT AND THIS COULD AID MIXING A BIT.  THUS ANOTHER
DAY OF RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED.  RECORD HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE A LITTLE WARMER (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959)...BUT SEEMS THAT PUB AND COS COULD COME CLOSE OR
BREAK RECORDS TOMORROW.  OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.  WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD GET
BREEZY IN SPOTS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW...BUT
WINDS DON`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...DRY AND WARM WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NOVEMBER...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY UNEVENTFUL. THE WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS MID 80S...SINCE TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT LOOK
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE WARMER MOS VALUES...EVEN WITH
MODERATE WRLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME MARGINALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON
AS RH VALUES NR 15 PERCENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO THE CENTRAL MTS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MON AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES
ERN CO. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WOULD BRING MORE QPF...ESPECIALLY TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE NCEP
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SYSTEM...SO WILL LEAVE BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE
POPS...AROUND 10 PERCENT...FOR THE LOWLANDS. BUT THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP
FOR THIS AREA. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO BRING US CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN WE
COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
MTS COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS...GENERALLY AN INCH OR
TWO... FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET.

WE HEAD INTO A PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE TROUGH QUICKLY
DEPARTS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA WED NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY...AND THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL AVGS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD STRONGLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STUCK IN A DRY AND WARM PATTERN...AND IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN ANY TIME SOON. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 15 KTS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241652
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO WAVE CLOUD ACTIVITY OVER TELLER
AND EL PASO COUNTIES...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
REMAINS CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH AT
ALAMOSA OF 70 WOULD TIE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE...WHILE FORECAST
HIGHS AT PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WOULD BREAK THE CURRENT RECORDS BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ON SUNDAY...DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS IT DOES SO...DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK BREEZES PICK UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY THAN WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE.
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. GRASSES HAVE CURED SO
FUELS ARE CRITICAL. COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS DAY AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO RUN ABOUT 8500 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RUN ANYWHERE
FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES AROUND WOLF CREEK PASS...UP TO MAYBE 6 OR 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK. THERE COULD BE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES ACROSS...WITH THE BEST ODDS RIGHT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED...IF AT ALL.

AFTER THE DISTURBANCE GOES BY...THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS WILL
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SEEING FROST OR EVENING A KILLING FREEZE
TUESDAY MORNING.  EARLY GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE INDICATING ANYWHERE
FROM MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLER SYSTEMS...DISCONNECT HOSES AND DECIDE WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE PROTECTING PLANTS PRIOR TO MONDAY NIGHT.

OTHER THAN THE SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE MILD AND DRY FALL WEATHER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS UNDER 15 KTS AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241635
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1035 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM MAX
TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE H7 TEMPERATURES BY
MID AFTERNOON TODAY ABOUT 2 DEGREES C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
VERSUS TODAY...EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN MANY AREAS ARE LOWER THAN TODAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD AND THE NEXT
INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL SUNDAY. EVEN SO...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE FORECAST MODELS CHANGING NEARLY EVERY MODEL
RUN. ALL THREE MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MAINLY
OVER NE UT AND NW CO DUE TO A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING THROUGH COMBINED
WITH A STRONG JET ALOFT MOVING IN...THOUGH THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.

SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. AGAIN...EXPECT RELATIVELY LOW TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH.
PRESENTLY...LOOKS LIKE PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF HIGH DENSITY SNOW
TOTALS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FOOT LEVEL BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
...WITH A MIGRATORY UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH
THE MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL JUST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR
EVEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/JRP
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KBOU 241549
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
949 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WAVE CLOUD THAT SET UP OVERNIGHT IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND IS FORECASTED TO SCATTER OUT BY NOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY THEN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL ANTICIPATING
TO MEET AND POSSIBLY BREAK THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF
80 DEGREES IN DENVER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUITE A BIT OF WAVE CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS. GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING WAVE CLOUD
DISSIPATION BY 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COLORADO
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
AT LEAST TO +10 TO +12C WHICH WILL GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR DENVER TODAY IS
80 DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BREAK A RECORD. THIS IS STILL
COOLER THAN LATEST MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY SATURDAY. 586 DECAMETER
HEIGHTS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE RESIDENT AIRMASS
ALSO QUITE DRY AND STABLE WITH THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE. BY
AFTERNOON 700 MB TEMP UP AROUND 12C AND WITH THE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 80-85 DEG RANGE
ON THE PLAINS WITH THE WARMER READINGS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING/SWLY WINDS. MAY SEE MORE RECORDS BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER FOR THE DATE IS 80F.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
PLACING THE REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION BEING CARRIED ALONG BY THIS
FLOW. PRES FALLS ON THE PLAINS LEADING TO A TIGHT CROSS MTN PRES
GRAD WILL TEAM UP WITH THIS HEIGHT FALL ANOMALY AND THE FORMATION
OF A LEE SLOPE MTN WAVE TO PRODUCE GUSTY W-SWLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST ASPECT OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN
THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START QUITE MILD ON SUNDAY
ESPLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO THESE CHINOOK WINDS. HOWEVER
THROUGH THE DAY 700-500MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP DOWNWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACRS THE GREAT BASIN. 00Z AND 06Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. STILL PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD END UP PRODUCING
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVEL EXPECTED TO
START OUT AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO
AROUND 8 THOUSAND FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF SHOWERS STILL AROUND
MONDAY EVENING...COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING
THE 36-HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z/TUE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES ABOVE TIMBERLINE. WHILE RAIN AMOUNTS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL FALL BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK. GOOD BET THIS WILL END THIS YEAR/S LONG GROWING SEASON. TIME
TO THINK ABOUT BLOWING OUT OUTDOOR SPRINKLER SYSTEMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
TROUGH RACING EAST AND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARMING REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW KEEP MID-LEVELS COOL. ONE OF THESE
RIPPLES MAY BRING A BIT OF SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NRN MTNS
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH LEVEL
BROKEN DECK SCATTERING OUT BY 17Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW FOR
THE MORNING THEN WILL GO VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
RETURNING TO DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241052
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
452 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO WAVE CLOUD ACTIVITY OVER TELLER
AND EL PASO COUNTIES...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
REMAINS CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH AT
ALAMOSA OF 70 WOULD TIE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE...WHILE FORECAST
HIGHS AT PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WOULD BREAK THE CURRENT RECORDS BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ON SUNDAY...DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS IT DOES SO...DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK BREEZES PICK UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY THAN WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE.
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. GRASSES HAVE CURED SO
FUELS ARE CRITICAL. COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS DAY AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO RUN ABOUT 8500 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RUN ANYWHERE
FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES AROUND WOLF CREEK PASS...UP TO MAYBE 6 OR 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK. THERE COULD BE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES ACROSS...WITH THE BEST ODDS RIGHT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED...IF AT ALL.

AFTER THE DISTURBANCE GOES BY...THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS WILL
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SEEING FROST OR EVENING A KILLING FREEZE
TUESDAY MORNING.  EARLY GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE INDICATING ANYWHERE
FROM MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLER SYSTEMS...DISCONNECT HOSES AND DECIDE WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE PROTECTING PLANTS PRIOR TO MONDAY NIGHT.

OTHER THAN THE SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE MILD AND DRY FALL WEATHER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE STATE. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 241052
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
452 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO WAVE CLOUD ACTIVITY OVER TELLER
AND EL PASO COUNTIES...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
REMAINS CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH AT
ALAMOSA OF 70 WOULD TIE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE...WHILE FORECAST
HIGHS AT PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WOULD BREAK THE CURRENT RECORDS BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ON SUNDAY...DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS IT DOES SO...DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK BREEZES PICK UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY THAN WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE.
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. GRASSES HAVE CURED SO
FUELS ARE CRITICAL. COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS DAY AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO RUN ABOUT 8500 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RUN ANYWHERE
FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES AROUND WOLF CREEK PASS...UP TO MAYBE 6 OR 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK. THERE COULD BE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES ACROSS...WITH THE BEST ODDS RIGHT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED...IF AT ALL.

AFTER THE DISTURBANCE GOES BY...THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS WILL
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SEEING FROST OR EVENING A KILLING FREEZE
TUESDAY MORNING.  EARLY GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE INDICATING ANYWHERE
FROM MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLER SYSTEMS...DISCONNECT HOSES AND DECIDE WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE PROTECTING PLANTS PRIOR TO MONDAY NIGHT.

OTHER THAN THE SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE MILD AND DRY FALL WEATHER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE STATE. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KBOU 241025 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...ADDITION TO 4TH PARAGRAPH...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUITE A BIT OF WAVE CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS. GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING WAVE CLOUD
DISSIPATION BY 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COLORADO
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
AT LEAST TO +10 TO +12C WHICH WILL GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR DENVER TODAY IS
80 DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BREAK A RECORD. THIS IS STILL
COOLER THAN LATEST MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY SATURDAY. 586 DECAMETER
HEIGHTS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE RESIDENT AIRMASS
ALSO QUITE DRY AND STABLE WITH THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE. BY
AFTERNOON 700 MB TEMP UP AROUND 12C AND WITH THE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 80-85 DEG RANGE
ON THE PLAINS WITH THE WARMER READINGS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING/SWLY WINDS. MAY SEE MORE RECORDS BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER FOR THE DATE IS 80F.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
PLACING THE REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION BEING CARRIED ALONG BY THIS
FLOW. PRES FALLS ON THE PLAINS LEADING TO A TIGHT CROSS MTN PRES
GRAD WILL TEAM UP WITH THIS HEIGHT FALL ANOMALY AND THE FORMATION
OF A LEE SLOPE MTN WAVE TO PRODUCE GUSTY W-SWLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST ASPECT OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN
THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START QUITE MILD ON SUNDAY
ESPLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO THESE CHINOOK WINDS. HOWEVER
THROUGH THE DAY 700-500MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP DOWNWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACRS THE GREAT BASIN. 00Z AND 06Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. STILL PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD END UP PRODUCING
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVEL EXPECTED TO
START OUT AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO
AROUND 8 THOUSAND FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF SHOWERS STILL AROUND
MONDAY EVENING...COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING
THE 36-HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z/TUE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES ABOVE TIMBERLINE. WHILE RAIN AMOUNTS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL FALL BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK. GOOD BET THIS WILL END THIS YEAR/S LONG GROWING SEASON. TIME
TO THINK ABOUT BLOWING OUT OUTDOOR SPRINKLER SYSTEMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
TROUGH RACING EAST AND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARMING REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW KEEP MID-LEVELS COOL. ONE OF THESE
RIPPLES MAY BRING A BIT OF SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NRN MTNS
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WAVE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z OVER LOCAL TERMINALS.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE AT BJC UNTIL 16Z BEFORE WAVE
BREAKS DOWN. WEAKER WINDS AT APA/DEN WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE FROM
THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 241011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUITE A BIT OF WAVE CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
AT THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS. GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE CLOUDINESS LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING WAVE CLOUD
DISSIPATION BY 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COLORADO
WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
AT LEAST TO +10 TO +12C WHICH WILL GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR DENVER TODAY IS
80 DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BREAK A RECORD. THIS IS STILL
COOLER THAN LATEST MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-5
DEGREES TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY SATURDAY. 586 DECAMETER
HEIGHTS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE RESIDENT AIRMASS
ALSO QUITE DRY AND STABLE WITH THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE. BY
AFTERNOON 700 MB TEMP UP AROUND 12C AND WITH THE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AGAIN SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE 80-85 DEG RANGE
ON THE PLAINS WITH THE WARMER READINGS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING/SWLY WINDS. MAY SEE MORE RECORDS BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER FOR THE DATE IS 80F.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
PLACING THE REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTABATION BEING CARRIED ALONG BY THIS
FLOW. PRES FALLS ON THE PLAINS LEADING TO A TIGHT CROSS MTN PRES
GRAD WILL TEAM UP WITH THIS HEIGHT FALL ANOMALY AND THE FORMATION
OF A LEE SLOPE MTN WAVE TO PRODUCE GUSTY W-SWLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST ASPECT OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN
THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START QUITE MILD ON SUNDAY
ESPLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO THESE CHINOOK WINDS. HOWEVER
THROUGH THE DAY 700-500MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP DOWNWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACRS THE GREAT BASIN. 00Z AND 06Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. STILL PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD END UP PRODUCING
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVEL EXPECTED TO
START OUT AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWER TO
AROUND 8 THOUSAND FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF SHOWERS STILL AROUND
MONDAY EVENING... COULD SEE A SMATTERING OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS...HOWEVER NO DISCERNIBLE
ACCUMULATION. SNOW TOTALS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING THE 36-HOUR
PERIOD ENDING 00Z/TUE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH 4-5
INCH ACCUMS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. WHILE RAIN AMOUNTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
TROUGH RACING EAST AND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARMING REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW KEEP MID-LEVELS COOL. ONE OF THESE
RIPPLES MAY BRING A BIT OF SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NRN MTNS
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WAVE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z OVER LOCAL TERMINALS.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE AT BJC UNTIL 16Z BEFORE WAVE
BREAKS DOWN. WEAKER WINDS AT APA/DEN WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE FROM
THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 240929
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
329 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM MAX
TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE H7 TEMPERATURES BY
MID AFTERNOON TODAY ABOUT 2 DEGREES C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
VERSUS TODAY...EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN MANY AREAS ARE LOWER THAN TODAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD AND THE NEXT
INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL SUNDAY. EVEN SO...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE FORECAST MODELS CHANGING NEARLY EVERY MODEL
RUN. ALL THREE MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MAINLY
OVER NE UT AND NW CO DUE TO A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING THROUGH COMBINED
WITH A STRONG JET ALOFT MOVING IN...THOUGH THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.

SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. AGAIN...EXPECT RELATIVELY LOW TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH.
PRESENTLY...LOOKS LIKE PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF HIGH DENSITY SNOW
TOTALS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FOOT LEVEL BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
...WITH A MIGRATORY UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH
THE MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL JUST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR
EVEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/JRP
AVIATION...JRP




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240502
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SOME HIGH LEVEL
WAVE CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IN THE OFFING...AS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WARM AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10C
AND 14C CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT OR ABOVE RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AT THE PEAKS.
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH ARE 78F AT COS...83F AT PUB AND 70F
AT ALS...ALL SET IN 2011 AND LOOKS LIKE WILL TIE OR BREAK
THEM...EVEN WITH AN EXPECTED GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY BUT STILL
WARM MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR
MONDAY...

UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DAY WHICH INCLUDE (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959.) THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS CO AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN U.S. ROCKIES.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY...AND QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LEE TROF
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT SOME OVER
THOSE ON SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
AVERAGE AND RH VALUES MAY COME CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT
THRESHOLD.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION ON MONDAY. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST OF THE ENERGY PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT...AND WINDS DECOUPLE. KNOCKED OFF A FEW DEGREES
OFF LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FROST
OR FREEZE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 240502
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SOME HIGH LEVEL
WAVE CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IN THE OFFING...AS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WARM AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10C
AND 14C CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT OR ABOVE RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AT THE PEAKS.
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH ARE 78F AT COS...83F AT PUB AND 70F
AT ALS...ALL SET IN 2011 AND LOOKS LIKE WILL TIE OR BREAK
THEM...EVEN WITH AN EXPECTED GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY BUT STILL
WARM MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR
MONDAY...

UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DAY WHICH INCLUDE (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959.) THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS CO AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN U.S. ROCKIES.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY...AND QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LEE TROF
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT SOME OVER
THOSE ON SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
AVERAGE AND RH VALUES MAY COME CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT
THRESHOLD.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION ON MONDAY. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST OF THE ENERGY PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT...AND WINDS DECOUPLE. KNOCKED OFF A FEW DEGREES
OFF LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FROST
OR FREEZE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240246
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
846 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...SO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES THERE. RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. NW FLOW
WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS A WAVE CLOUD WILL SETUP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE THE STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
MIX DOWN THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP
TO 25 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. THE STRONG THERMAL PROFILE
DOES NOT EXTEND PAST THE FOOTHILLS SO THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
LIGHTER.

STILL LOOKING LIKE MANY LOCATIONS TOMORROW COULD SEE RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR
DENVER STANDS AT 80 DEGREES AND WE COULD SURPASS THAT BY A FEW
DEGREES...GIVEN THE WAVE CLOUD DOES NOT STAY IN PLACE TOO FAR
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER SUMMER LIKE FALL DAY FOR
DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COULD BE 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR DENVER. ON SUNDAY...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGINS INCREASING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

EACH OF THE MID-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN
OPEN TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT SPREADS FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE. THROUGH
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. MOST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
COOLING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE PLAINS AS THE LAST OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. BEYOND
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RE-DEVELOPS AND
COLORADO SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS 12-14K FT AND SCT-BKN NEAR 20K FT
AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 240246
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
846 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...SO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES THERE. RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. NW FLOW
WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS A WAVE CLOUD WILL SETUP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE THE STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
MIX DOWN THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP
TO 25 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. THE STRONG THERMAL PROFILE
DOES NOT EXTEND PAST THE FOOTHILLS SO THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
LIGHTER.

STILL LOOKING LIKE MANY LOCATIONS TOMORROW COULD SEE RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR
DENVER STANDS AT 80 DEGREES AND WE COULD SURPASS THAT BY A FEW
DEGREES...GIVEN THE WAVE CLOUD DOES NOT STAY IN PLACE TOO FAR
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER SUMMER LIKE FALL DAY FOR
DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COULD BE 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR DENVER. ON SUNDAY...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGINS INCREASING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

EACH OF THE MID-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN
OPEN TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT SPREADS FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE. THROUGH
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. MOST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
COOLING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE PLAINS AS THE LAST OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. BEYOND
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RE-DEVELOPS AND
COLORADO SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS 12-14K FT AND SCT-BKN NEAR 20K FT
AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232246
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE EXIGUOUS SIDE...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
IN PLACE TO END OUT THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BOOST LOW TEMPERATURES UP JUST A TAD AND LIMIT THE SPREAD OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE EAGLE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS.
SATELLITE AND H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOW AN ENLARGED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND GULF OF ALASKA CURRENTLY. THIS IS
BEING UNDERCUT BY THE UPPER JET ATTM SO THERE IS NO THREAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
INSTEAD...AN UPSTREAM BRANCH OF THE JET DIGGING OUT OF THE
ALEUTIANS CARVE OUT THE NEXT TROUGH OF THE LEFT COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS...BROAD RIDGING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAVE PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SHIFTS
EAST AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SAT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE HIGH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...AS IT
BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SAT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MIXING INTO THE
VALLEYS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN THE ONSET AND DURATION OF SHOWERS.
HOWEVER SO FAR THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DUE TO ITS RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED...WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MON AFTERNOON. ALSO BY LATE SUN
NIGHT...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP INTO THE NORTHERN AND HIGH CENTRAL
VALLEYS ALONG A LINE FROM CRAIG TO GUNNISON AND EASTWARD.

RIDGING WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES: VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SAT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS SIMILAR...TO A
DEGREE OR TWO LESS THAN ON FRIDAY. MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FOLLOW
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH PRODUCING MORE CLOUDS AND SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS.
MON WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY. HOWEVER THAT IS RELATIVE AS HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MON NIGHT AND EVEN TUE NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOWER
VALLEYS THAT HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A SEASON ENDING FREEZE. THIS
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CIGS AOA 20KFT AGL. MOISTURE ALONG THE EAGLE AND UPPER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS APPEARS TO HAVE MIXED OUT TODAY THERE
SHOULD NOT BE A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG EXPERIENCED AT KEGE FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 232130
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SOME HIGH LEVEL
WAVE CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IN THE OFFING...AS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WARM AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10C
AND 14C CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT OR ABOVE RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AT THE PEAKS.
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH ARE 78F AT COS...83F AT PUB AND 70F
AT ALS...ALL SET IN 2011 AND LOOKS LIKE WILL TIE OR BREAK
THEM...EVEN WITH AN EXPECTED GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND REGIME.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY BUT STILL
WARM MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR
MONDAY...

UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DAY WHICH INCLUDE (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959.) THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS CO AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN U.S. ROCKIES.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY...AND QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LEE TROF
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT SOME OVER
THOSE ON SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
AVERAGE AND RH VALUES MAY COME CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT
THRESHOLD.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION ON MONDAY. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST OF THE ENERGY PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT...AND WINDS DECOUPLE. KNOCKED OFF A FEW DEGREES
OFF LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FROST
OR FREEZE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
WIND REGIME EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KBOU 232106
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. NW FLOW
WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS A WAVE CLOUD WILL SETUP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE THE STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
MIX DOWN THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP
TO 25 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. THE STRONG THERMAL PROFILE
DOES NOT EXTEND PAST THE FOOTHILLS SO THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
LIGHTER.

STILL LOOKING LIKE MANY LOCATIONS TOMORROW COULD SEE RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR
DENVER STANDS AT 80 DEGREES AND WE COULD SURPASS THAT BY A FEW
DEGREES...GIVEN THE WAVE CLOUD DOES NOT STAY IN PLACE TOO FAR
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER SUMMER LIKE FALL DAY FOR
DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COULD BE 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR DENVER. ON SUNDAY...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGINS INCREASING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

EACH OF THE MID-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN
OPEN TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT SPREADS FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE. THROUGH
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. MOST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
COOLING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE PLAINS AS THE LAST OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. BEYOND
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RE-DEVELOPS AND
COLORADO SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A MOUNTAIN WAVE
HAS SET UP THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS TO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. INCREASED WINDS AT DIA WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRAINAGE WINDS RETURNING THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232051
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE EXIGUOUS SIDE...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
IN PLACE TO END OUT THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BOOST LOW TEMPERATURES UP JUST A TAD AND LIMIT THE SPREAD OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE EAGLE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS.
SATELLITE AND H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOW AN ENLARGED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND GULF OF ALASKA CURRENTLY. THIS IS
BEING UNDERCUT BY THE UPPER JET ATTM SO THERE IS NO THREAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
INSTEAD...AN UPSTREAM BRANCH OF THE JET DIGGING OUT OF THE
ALEUTIANS CARVE OUT THE NEXT TROUGH OF THE LEFT COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS...BROAD RIDGING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAVE PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SHIFTS
EAST AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SAT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE HIGH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...AS IT
BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SAT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MIXING INTO THE
VALLEYS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN THE ONSET AND DURATION OF SHOWERS.
HOWEVER SO FAR THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DUE TO ITS RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED...WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MON AFTERNOON. ALSO BY LATE SUN
NIGHT...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP INTO THE NORTHERN AND HIGH CENTRAL
VALLEYS ALONG A LINE FROM CRAIG TO GUNNISON AND EASTWARD.

RIDGING WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES: VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SAT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS SIMILAR...TO A
DEGREE OR TWO LESS THAN ON FRIDAY. MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FOLLOW
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH PRODUCING MORE CLOUDS AND SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS.
MON WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY. HOWEVER THAT IS RELATIVE AS HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MON NIGHT AND EVEN TUE NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOWER
VALLEYS THAT HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A SEASON ENDING FREEZE. THIS
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENTING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CIGS AOA 20KFT AGL. MOISTURE ALONG THE EAGLE AND
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS LOOKS TO HAVE MIXED OUT TODAY AND
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL NOT RETURN AND IMPACT
THE KEGE TERMINAL FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 231727
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OBS
INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE EAST OVER COLORADO.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MORE SEASONABLE (AND POSSIBLY
WETTER) NEXT WEEK...

UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE L/M80S THESE THREE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A BIT COOLER WX SUNDAY. A FEW RECORD
HIGH TEMPS MAY BE BROKEN DURING THIS 3 DAY PERIOD. THESE VALUES
WILL GENERALLY RUN AOA 15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AS FOR FIRE WX...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AT OR AROUND CRITICAL
VALUES ON THESE 3 DAYS BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FRI AND
SAT...BUT MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN ALONG
THE RATON MESA.

FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BOTH GFS AND EC HAVE A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE GFS IS A MUCH QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER. FOR NOW I
LEANED THE NDFD A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE AND HAVE MORE
CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. IF THE EC SHOULD VERIFY...ALL AREAS COULD SEE PRECIP WITH
THE SOUTHERN MTNS MAKING OUT PRETTY WELL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS
SHOULD VERIFY...THEN ONLY THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD WILL SEE ANY
PRECIP.

TEMPS TUE AND WED MORNING MAY BE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS.

AS FOR THE FCST INTO MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE COULD NOT
BE MORE DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE. THE EC HAS A LARGE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE THE PAC WEST COAST WHILE THE GFS HAS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMTN WEST. BOTH PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN...BUT THE SPEED OF THE TROUGHS/RIDGES TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE CONUS VARY...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
DISCREPANCIES. FOR NOW I HAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND REGIME EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231636
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1036 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND FOG IS HANGING AROUND IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...IMPACTING AREAS NEAR EAGLE UP TO STATE BRIDGE. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT IS NOT FAR AWAY AND THE
SUN SHOULD BE SCATTERING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT BY NOON MDT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME HIGH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRIFTING BY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS. WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND WAA
KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A TAD WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TODAY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAM
CONTINUES TO BRING PLENTY OF PRECIP TO THE PACNW. WE MAY SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY UP NORTH...BUY BY AND
LARGE...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL END THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPECT A WARM NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES REACH
THEIR PEAK FOR THE WEEK UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH COMES ONSHORE
THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE.

A TALE OF TWO MODELS CONTINUES AS THE GFS AND EC BOTH PICKING UP
ON A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD SUNDAY...OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LOW QPF AMTS. THE
EC BRINGS PRECIP IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LARGER QPF
AMTS. BY NOW WOULD EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR INDIVIDUAL GUNS. BLENDED SOLN STILL
LOOKING GOOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND DROPPING
OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...NWLY FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACNW. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP FOR US WHILE EC KEEPS US BONE DRY. SCHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL FINALLY DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE EAGLE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS
WILL BE IMPROVING BY THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AS THE STRATUS BURNS
OFF. WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
NOR PRECIPITATION TODAY...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL
REFORM AGAIN AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231636
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1036 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND FOG IS HANGING AROUND IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...IMPACTING AREAS NEAR EAGLE UP TO STATE BRIDGE. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT IS NOT FAR AWAY AND THE
SUN SHOULD BE SCATTERING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT BY NOON MDT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME HIGH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRIFTING BY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS. WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND WAA
KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A TAD WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TODAY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAM
CONTINUES TO BRING PLENTY OF PRECIP TO THE PACNW. WE MAY SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY UP NORTH...BUY BY AND
LARGE...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL END THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPECT A WARM NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES REACH
THEIR PEAK FOR THE WEEK UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH COMES ONSHORE
THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE.

A TALE OF TWO MODELS CONTINUES AS THE GFS AND EC BOTH PICKING UP
ON A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD SUNDAY...OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LOW QPF AMTS. THE
EC BRINGS PRECIP IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LARGER QPF
AMTS. BY NOW WOULD EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR INDIVIDUAL GUNS. BLENDED SOLN STILL
LOOKING GOOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND DROPPING
OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...NWLY FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACNW. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP FOR US WHILE EC KEEPS US BONE DRY. SCHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL FINALLY DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE EAGLE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS
WILL BE IMPROVING BY THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AS THE STRATUS BURNS
OFF. WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
NOR PRECIPITATION TODAY...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL
REFORM AGAIN AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS65 KBOU 231611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

A STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED IN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE DUE TO THE
FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LINGERING FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE FORMATION
OF A WAVE CLOUD INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A CONTINUED WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY FOR NE
COLORADO WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING CLOSE TO 80 IN DENVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AND DRY IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THU AND FRI ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CIRRUS WAVE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION. LEE TROFING AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW SOME OF
THE MID LEVEL WESTERLIES TO MIX DOWN INTO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
LATE THU FOR SOME MODERATE GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KT... BUT THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT FAVOR MIXING OF THE
WESTERLIES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DEEPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST CREATED A
RECIPROCATING LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MTN WEST BY FRIDAY. BENEATH THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECT ANOMOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STORM TRACK/JET STREAM RESIDING UP NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPS AT MANY LOCALES ON FRIDAY...THE 25TH COULD
EASILY MATCH IF NOT EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. RECORD HIGH
AT DENVER ON THE 25TH IS 80. MAY SURPASS THAT BE A FEW DEGREES
F...ASSUMING THE MORNING MTN WAVE CLOUD DOESN/T HANG AROUND TOO
LONG. ALSO COMPARE THAT TO A NORMAL HIGH OF 62F. IT/S GOING TO
FEEL LIKE LATE SUMMER AROUND HERE. IF THAT/S NOT ENOUGH...MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS MAY ALSO COME VERY CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR THE DATE.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS TO EQUAL OR EXCEED THE
RECORD HIGH FOR THE 26TH. RECORD AT DENVER IS 80. MAY BEAT THAT BY
A DEG OR TWO. AS THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS...SFC WINDS
MAINLY ON THE PLAINS REMAIN LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. PRECIP STILL WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT RANGE AT
THAT TIME.

SUNDAY STARTS OUT BALMY...ESLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE/DOWN VALLEY WINDS. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KTS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AT 12Z. DURING THE DAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE COMES ITS EASTWARD MIGRATION AS A CHILLY AND WET UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ACCORDING TO
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WARM AND GUSTY
SWLY SFC WINDS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS NEARING THE RECORD AGAIN AT MANY LOCATIONS SUCH AS DENVER.
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE THE RECORD HIGH OF 83F AT DENVER IN DANGER ON
SUNDAY. BY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN MTNS COULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE
IMPACT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
WITH THE FIRST OF TWO STAND-UP FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACRS THE
HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ANY RAIN TO SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET OR
SO.

ON MONDAY...A SECOND PUSH OF EVEN COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS THE
NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB MUCH ABOVE MID-MORNING READINGS. ALSO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
RISING WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATES. BY LATE IN THE DAY...COULD SEE ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE
FLOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE GIVING THIS AREA A SECOND SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP...
ALBEIT LIGHT. AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...PRECIP WILL BE SNOW ABOVE
8500-9000FT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND BELOW THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST BUT THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARM UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH JUST A LIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 958 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS BEING VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THE MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT WITH DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...KELSCH/MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN




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