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000
FXUS65 KBOU 021536
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END OVER THE FAR NE CORNER WITH
THE HELP OF HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INCREASED POPS OVER THE PLAINS
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND A FRONT NORTH OF NEBRASKA THAT IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK INTO NE COLORADO BY THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME GUSTY WINDS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF WY FROM OUTFLOWS PROVIDED BY STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREATS
STILL LOOK TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDED SOME LIGHT SHRA IN A
TEMPO WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND A WEAK CAP WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL HELP
TO BRING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A LINE OF RAINSHOWERS
AROUND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN TRANSITION TO
THE NW BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CLEAR
OUT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 021536
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END OVER THE FAR NE CORNER WITH
THE HELP OF HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INCREASED POPS OVER THE PLAINS
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND A FRONT NORTH OF NEBRASKA THAT IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK INTO NE COLORADO BY THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME GUSTY WINDS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF WY FROM OUTFLOWS PROVIDED BY STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREATS
STILL LOOK TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDED SOME LIGHT SHRA IN A
TEMPO WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND A WEAK CAP WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL HELP
TO BRING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A LINE OF RAINSHOWERS
AROUND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN TRANSITION TO
THE NW BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CLEAR
OUT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 021536
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
936 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END OVER THE FAR NE CORNER WITH
THE HELP OF HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INCREASED POPS OVER THE PLAINS
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND A FRONT NORTH OF NEBRASKA THAT IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK INTO NE COLORADO BY THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME GUSTY WINDS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF WY FROM OUTFLOWS PROVIDED BY STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREATS
STILL LOOK TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDED SOME LIGHT SHRA IN A
TEMPO WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND A WEAK CAP WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL HELP
TO BRING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A LINE OF RAINSHOWERS
AROUND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN TRANSITION TO
THE NW BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CLEAR
OUT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 021429
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
829 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE SW QUARTER
OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVED SOME GOOD RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WAS REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES IN SE UTAH UP TO THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. THIS HELPS SET THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK 35KT S-N ORIENTED JET LIFTING INTO SE
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE 06Z RUN.
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR SE UTAH THIS
MORNING THEN SPREADS ACROSS SW- WESTCENTRAL COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GRAND JUNCTION
RESOLVED 1.00 INCH PRECIP WATER WHICH IS RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE
FORECAST VALUES FROM THE GFS (0.86) AND NAM (1.1). THIS INDICATES
THE MODELS MAY NOT BE RESOLVING IMPORTANT DETAILS SO THE BROAD
WATCH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELONGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES
THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
ENERGY SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS
MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED
STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AT KVEL KCNY KGJT AFTER 06Z. OTHER TAF
SITES BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA/SHRA OCCUR BEFORE 06Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-
     017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF/JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021429
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
829 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE SW QUARTER
OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVED SOME GOOD RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WAS REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES IN SE UTAH UP TO THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. THIS HELPS SET THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK 35KT S-N ORIENTED JET LIFTING INTO SE
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE 06Z RUN.
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR SE UTAH THIS
MORNING THEN SPREADS ACROSS SW- WESTCENTRAL COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GRAND JUNCTION
RESOLVED 1.00 INCH PRECIP WATER WHICH IS RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE
FORECAST VALUES FROM THE GFS (0.86) AND NAM (1.1). THIS INDICATES
THE MODELS MAY NOT BE RESOLVING IMPORTANT DETAILS SO THE BROAD
WATCH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELONGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES
THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
ENERGY SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS
MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED
STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AT KVEL KCNY KGJT AFTER 06Z. OTHER TAF
SITES BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA/SHRA OCCUR BEFORE 06Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-
     017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF/JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021429
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
829 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE SW QUARTER
OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVED SOME GOOD RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WAS REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES IN SE UTAH UP TO THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. THIS HELPS SET THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK 35KT S-N ORIENTED JET LIFTING INTO SE
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE 06Z RUN.
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR SE UTAH THIS
MORNING THEN SPREADS ACROSS SW- WESTCENTRAL COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GRAND JUNCTION
RESOLVED 1.00 INCH PRECIP WATER WHICH IS RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE
FORECAST VALUES FROM THE GFS (0.86) AND NAM (1.1). THIS INDICATES
THE MODELS MAY NOT BE RESOLVING IMPORTANT DETAILS SO THE BROAD
WATCH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELONGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES
THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
ENERGY SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS
MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED
STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AT KVEL KCNY KGJT AFTER 06Z. OTHER TAF
SITES BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA/SHRA OCCUR BEFORE 06Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-
     017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF/JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021429
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
829 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE SW QUARTER
OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVED SOME GOOD RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WAS REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES IN SE UTAH UP TO THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. THIS HELPS SET THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK 35KT S-N ORIENTED JET LIFTING INTO SE
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE 06Z RUN.
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR SE UTAH THIS
MORNING THEN SPREADS ACROSS SW- WESTCENTRAL COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GRAND JUNCTION
RESOLVED 1.00 INCH PRECIP WATER WHICH IS RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE
FORECAST VALUES FROM THE GFS (0.86) AND NAM (1.1). THIS INDICATES
THE MODELS MAY NOT BE RESOLVING IMPORTANT DETAILS SO THE BROAD
WATCH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELONGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES
THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
ENERGY SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS
MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED
STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AT KVEL KCNY KGJT AFTER 06Z. OTHER TAF
SITES BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA/SHRA OCCUR BEFORE 06Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-
     017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF/JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021429
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
829 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE SW QUARTER
OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVED SOME GOOD RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WAS REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES IN SE UTAH UP TO THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. THIS HELPS SET THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK 35KT S-N ORIENTED JET LIFTING INTO SE
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE 06Z RUN.
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR SE UTAH THIS
MORNING THEN SPREADS ACROSS SW- WESTCENTRAL COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GRAND JUNCTION
RESOLVED 1.00 INCH PRECIP WATER WHICH IS RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE
FORECAST VALUES FROM THE GFS (0.86) AND NAM (1.1). THIS INDICATES
THE MODELS MAY NOT BE RESOLVING IMPORTANT DETAILS SO THE BROAD
WATCH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELONGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES
THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
ENERGY SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS
MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED
STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AT KVEL KCNY KGJT AFTER 06Z. OTHER TAF
SITES BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA/SHRA OCCUR BEFORE 06Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-
     017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF/JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021429
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
829 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE SW QUARTER
OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVED SOME GOOD RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WAS REPORTED AT SEVERAL
SITES IN SE UTAH UP TO THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. THIS HELPS SET THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK 35KT S-N ORIENTED JET LIFTING INTO SE
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE 06Z RUN.
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR SE UTAH THIS
MORNING THEN SPREADS ACROSS SW- WESTCENTRAL COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GRAND JUNCTION
RESOLVED 1.00 INCH PRECIP WATER WHICH IS RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE
FORECAST VALUES FROM THE GFS (0.86) AND NAM (1.1). THIS INDICATES
THE MODELS MAY NOT BE RESOLVING IMPORTANT DETAILS SO THE BROAD
WATCH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELONGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES
THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
ENERGY SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS
MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED
STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AT KVEL KCNY KGJT AFTER 06Z. OTHER TAF
SITES BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA/SHRA OCCUR BEFORE 06Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-
     017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021158
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
558 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELOGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION...COMBINED WITH CLEARER SKIES THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE CLOUD COVER BEING SLIM THIS MORNING WAS A MAJOR FACTOR
IN THE DECISION TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR TODAY. BY THIS
EVENING...THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH INDICATES THIS
ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE ENERGY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER
SW COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70.
THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS
AND OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS
MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021158
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
558 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELOGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION...COMBINED WITH CLEARER SKIES THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE CLOUD COVER BEING SLIM THIS MORNING WAS A MAJOR FACTOR
IN THE DECISION TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR TODAY. BY THIS
EVENING...THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH INDICATES THIS
ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE ENERGY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER
SW COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70.
THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS
AND OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS
MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021158
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
558 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELOGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION...COMBINED WITH CLEARER SKIES THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE CLOUD COVER BEING SLIM THIS MORNING WAS A MAJOR FACTOR
IN THE DECISION TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR TODAY. BY THIS
EVENING...THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH INDICATES THIS
ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE ENERGY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER
SW COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70.
THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS
AND OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS
MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 021158
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
558 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELOGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION...COMBINED WITH CLEARER SKIES THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE CLOUD COVER BEING SLIM THIS MORNING WAS A MAJOR FACTOR
IN THE DECISION TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR TODAY. BY THIS
EVENING...THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH INDICATES THIS
ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE ENERGY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER
SW COLORADO.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70.
THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS
AND OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS
MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPUB 021015
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
415 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD WITH 60S OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE UNDER A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND MODELS DEVELOP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUANS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...NORTH INTO
THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OF
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN SCAR.  A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BURN SCAR AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES ALONG
WITH LIGHTNING.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOST HIGH-RES
MODELS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.  THAT BEING SAID...MOST HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS...NAMELY THE ARW AND THE
NSSL WRF...WHICH DO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE LOW POPS IN THIS AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.  THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.  THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO WILL REMAIN FELT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...MONSOON EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIER FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THEN
MONSOON RETURNING BY WEEKS END...

ON MONDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...CARRYING MONSOON MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION. WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HIGH WITH
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AIDED BY LIFT FROM THE DISTURBANCE.
SO...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRIMARY THREATS
OF LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.

TUESDAY IS NOT CURRENTLY LOOKING AS MOIST AS IT ONCE DID.  MODELS
ARE INDICATING...NOW...THAT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL ALREADY
BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT MUCH LESS SO
THAN ON MONDAY. STILL THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THIS DAY...BUT STARTING TO TREND TOWARD MORE OF A GUSTY WIND
THREAT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM DAYS...AS DRY
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION...AND THE MONSOON GETS
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH.  MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THESE DAYS WITH PRIMARILY A LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WIND THREAT. A LITTLE TRICKY THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH...AS SOME
MODEL RUNS ARE CLIPPING THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH AN MCS MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRANSITION BACK INTO
THE MONSOON.  MODELS INDICATE AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND TRACK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL PULL ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE NORTH INTO
COLORADO. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO SHOW UP ON FRIDAY...BUT REALLY
BLANKETS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
RETURN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.  THEY WILL MOST LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS
ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE TERMINAL.
IF A THUNDERSTORMS DOES MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...IT WILL REDUCE THE
CIGS AND VIS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



000
FXUS65 KPUB 021015
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
415 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING.  TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD WITH 60S OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE UNDER A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND MODELS DEVELOP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUANS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...NORTH INTO
THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OF
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN SCAR.  A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BURN SCAR AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES ALONG
WITH LIGHTNING.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOST HIGH-RES
MODELS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.  THAT BEING SAID...MOST HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS...NAMELY THE ARW AND THE
NSSL WRF...WHICH DO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE LOW POPS IN THIS AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.  THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.  THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO WILL REMAIN FELT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...MONSOON EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIER FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THEN
MONSOON RETURNING BY WEEKS END...

ON MONDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...CARRYING MONSOON MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION. WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HIGH WITH
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AIDED BY LIFT FROM THE DISTURBANCE.
SO...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRIMARY THREATS
OF LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.

TUESDAY IS NOT CURRENTLY LOOKING AS MOIST AS IT ONCE DID.  MODELS
ARE INDICATING...NOW...THAT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL ALREADY
BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT MUCH LESS SO
THAN ON MONDAY. STILL THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THIS DAY...BUT STARTING TO TREND TOWARD MORE OF A GUSTY WIND
THREAT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM DAYS...AS DRY
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION...AND THE MONSOON GETS
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH.  MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THESE DAYS WITH PRIMARILY A LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WIND THREAT. A LITTLE TRICKY THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH...AS SOME
MODEL RUNS ARE CLIPPING THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH AN MCS MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRANSITION BACK INTO
THE MONSOON.  MODELS INDICATE AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND TRACK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL PULL ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE NORTH INTO
COLORADO. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO SHOW UP ON FRIDAY...BUT REALLY
BLANKETS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
RETURN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.  THEY WILL MOST LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.  REDUCED CIGS AND VIS
ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE TERMINAL.
IF A THUNDERSTORMS DOES MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...IT WILL REDUCE THE
CIGS AND VIS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021000
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELOGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION...COMBINED WITH CLEARER SKIES THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE CLOUD COVER BEING SLIM THIS MORNING WAS A MAJOR FACTOR
IN THE DECISION TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR TODAY. BY THIS
EVENING...THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH INDICATES THIS
ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE ENERGY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER SW
COLORADO. SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL SPILL INTO SE UTAH. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO ON SUNDAY...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021000
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY IS ON TRACK TO BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS/BOOKCLIFFS
REGION ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET SOAKED UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
TODAY WITH AN ELOGATED VORT MAX STRETCHING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY MOISTURE-PRIMED
FOUR CORNERS REGION...COMBINED WITH CLEARER SKIES THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE CLOUD COVER BEING SLIM THIS MORNING WAS A MAJOR FACTOR
IN THE DECISION TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR TODAY. BY THIS
EVENING...THE RAP13 AND NAM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH INDICATES THIS
ENERGY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE ENERGY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BY MONDAY MORNING A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND
CREATE A BUSY DAY ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REACH TODAY AND THEN WHERE IT WILL FIRE BACK UP ON MONDAY. LOOKING
AT VERTICAL PROFILES...STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY
AND VARY BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED ALOFT.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE ON MONDAY SO FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT
LIKELY BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWNSTREAM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE UTAH AND WRN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UNDER AN
INCH AND TRENDING LOWER...SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT HAVE THE
SAME INTENSITY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS RECOVERS AND DOMINATE THE
PATTERN...AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY MOUNTAIN STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE HIGH CORE REPOSITIONS ITSELF A TAD EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTH BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER SW
COLORADO. SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL SPILL INTO SE UTAH. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO ON SUNDAY...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ006>012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KBOU 020948
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
348 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN EARLY THIS AM WITH S-SW WINDS AT
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS. OVERALL
COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO MAY KEEP
TERMINALS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW OR A VCSH. BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020948
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
348 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN EARLY THIS AM WITH S-SW WINDS AT
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS. OVERALL
COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO MAY KEEP
TERMINALS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW OR A VCSH. BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 020948
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
348 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN EARLY THIS AM WITH S-SW WINDS AT
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS. OVERALL
COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO MAY KEEP
TERMINALS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW OR A VCSH. BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020552
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1152 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
WITH AZ AND NM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS MORNING`S KGJT 12Z SOUNDING REPORTED
0.9 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW). THIS WAS UP SHARPLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. SO BETTER MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD AS EXPECTED...BUT BY
2 PM CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS. EXPECT THIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE NORTHERN
LIMIT FOR THIS DIURNAL CYCLE. BUT MORE EXCITEMENT IS IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
FADES. EVEN SO...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS STRIP OF HIGHER VORTICITY STAYS STRETCHED
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN EDGE. THEREFORE THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN FOCUS MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD TOWARDS MORNING.

SUNDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SEEN THIS WEEK MOVING OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AIDED BY A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA BEFORE REACHING THE I-70
CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS MODEST WITH VALUES OF
2000-3000 METERS SUNDAY MORNING SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH
EXTEND TOWARDS THE CO-WY BORDER WITH UP TO 1.3 INCHES NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW
AND WEAK SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KTS. SO EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS THAT FORM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN UNDER THE STEADY SHOWERS AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH STRATIFORM-LIKE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE AND 45KT JET STREAK
MOVING INTO SW COLORADO WILL HELP AID IN LIFT. IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...SURFACE HEATING MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION
BUT AM THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER AS A RESULT. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS GIVEN THE AMT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTION BUT DUE TO
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT REASSESS
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BEING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE ACTIVITY PICKS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NW COLORADO. NW
COLORADO WILL BE IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 45 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BEHIND IT INTO NE UTAH. THE
STEERING FLOW IS BETTER THAN SUNDAY WITH 7H WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND 5H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1 INCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-70.
STORMS WILL HAVE BETTER MOTION AND BETTER CHANCE OF SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ON THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE DRY AND MOIST AIR. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS WITH SOME
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS ON MONDAY. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS THE SHORTWAVE AND JET LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A FAIRLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SHUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE TAP INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. A DRIER PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY BUT APPEARS TOO WEAK AND DRY TO
PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA NEXT SATURDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS RETURN
AS EACH MODEL RUN APPEARS TO PUSH THE TIMING AHEAD BY 12 TO 24
HOURS. SO WILL TAKE THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER SW
COLORADO. SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL SPILL INTO SE UTAH. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO ON SUNDAY...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020552
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1152 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
WITH AZ AND NM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS MORNING`S KGJT 12Z SOUNDING REPORTED
0.9 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW). THIS WAS UP SHARPLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. SO BETTER MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD AS EXPECTED...BUT BY
2 PM CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS. EXPECT THIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE NORTHERN
LIMIT FOR THIS DIURNAL CYCLE. BUT MORE EXCITEMENT IS IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
FADES. EVEN SO...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS STRIP OF HIGHER VORTICITY STAYS STRETCHED
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN EDGE. THEREFORE THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN FOCUS MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD TOWARDS MORNING.

SUNDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SEEN THIS WEEK MOVING OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AIDED BY A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA BEFORE REACHING THE I-70
CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS MODEST WITH VALUES OF
2000-3000 METERS SUNDAY MORNING SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH
EXTEND TOWARDS THE CO-WY BORDER WITH UP TO 1.3 INCHES NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW
AND WEAK SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KTS. SO EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS THAT FORM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN UNDER THE STEADY SHOWERS AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH STRATIFORM-LIKE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE AND 45KT JET STREAK
MOVING INTO SW COLORADO WILL HELP AID IN LIFT. IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...SURFACE HEATING MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION
BUT AM THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER AS A RESULT. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS GIVEN THE AMT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTION BUT DUE TO
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT REASSESS
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BEING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE ACTIVITY PICKS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NW COLORADO. NW
COLORADO WILL BE IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 45 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BEHIND IT INTO NE UTAH. THE
STEERING FLOW IS BETTER THAN SUNDAY WITH 7H WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND 5H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1 INCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-70.
STORMS WILL HAVE BETTER MOTION AND BETTER CHANCE OF SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ON THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE DRY AND MOIST AIR. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS WITH SOME
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS ON MONDAY. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS THE SHORTWAVE AND JET LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A FAIRLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SHUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE TAP INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. A DRIER PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY BUT APPEARS TOO WEAK AND DRY TO
PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA NEXT SATURDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS RETURN
AS EACH MODEL RUN APPEARS TO PUSH THE TIMING AHEAD BY 12 TO 24
HOURS. SO WILL TAKE THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER SW
COLORADO. SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL SPILL INTO SE UTAH. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO ON SUNDAY...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 020552
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1152 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
WITH AZ AND NM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS MORNING`S KGJT 12Z SOUNDING REPORTED
0.9 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW). THIS WAS UP SHARPLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. SO BETTER MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD AS EXPECTED...BUT BY
2 PM CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS. EXPECT THIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE NORTHERN
LIMIT FOR THIS DIURNAL CYCLE. BUT MORE EXCITEMENT IS IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
FADES. EVEN SO...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS STRIP OF HIGHER VORTICITY STAYS STRETCHED
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN EDGE. THEREFORE THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN FOCUS MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD TOWARDS MORNING.

SUNDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SEEN THIS WEEK MOVING OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AIDED BY A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA BEFORE REACHING THE I-70
CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS MODEST WITH VALUES OF
2000-3000 METERS SUNDAY MORNING SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH
EXTEND TOWARDS THE CO-WY BORDER WITH UP TO 1.3 INCHES NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW
AND WEAK SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KTS. SO EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS THAT FORM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN UNDER THE STEADY SHOWERS AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH STRATIFORM-LIKE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE AND 45KT JET STREAK
MOVING INTO SW COLORADO WILL HELP AID IN LIFT. IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...SURFACE HEATING MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION
BUT AM THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER AS A RESULT. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS GIVEN THE AMT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTION BUT DUE TO
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT REASSESS
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BEING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE ACTIVITY PICKS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NW COLORADO. NW
COLORADO WILL BE IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 45 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BEHIND IT INTO NE UTAH. THE
STEERING FLOW IS BETTER THAN SUNDAY WITH 7H WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND 5H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1 INCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-70.
STORMS WILL HAVE BETTER MOTION AND BETTER CHANCE OF SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ON THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE DRY AND MOIST AIR. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS WITH SOME
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS ON MONDAY. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS THE SHORTWAVE AND JET LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A FAIRLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SHUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE TAP INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. A DRIER PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY BUT APPEARS TOO WEAK AND DRY TO
PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA NEXT SATURDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS RETURN
AS EACH MODEL RUN APPEARS TO PUSH THE TIMING AHEAD BY 12 TO 24
HOURS. SO WILL TAKE THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER SW
COLORADO. SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL SPILL INTO SE UTAH. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO ON SUNDAY...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020552
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1152 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
WITH AZ AND NM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS MORNING`S KGJT 12Z SOUNDING REPORTED
0.9 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW). THIS WAS UP SHARPLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. SO BETTER MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD AS EXPECTED...BUT BY
2 PM CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS. EXPECT THIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE NORTHERN
LIMIT FOR THIS DIURNAL CYCLE. BUT MORE EXCITEMENT IS IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
FADES. EVEN SO...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS STRIP OF HIGHER VORTICITY STAYS STRETCHED
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN EDGE. THEREFORE THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN FOCUS MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD TOWARDS MORNING.

SUNDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SEEN THIS WEEK MOVING OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AIDED BY A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA BEFORE REACHING THE I-70
CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS MODEST WITH VALUES OF
2000-3000 METERS SUNDAY MORNING SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH
EXTEND TOWARDS THE CO-WY BORDER WITH UP TO 1.3 INCHES NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW
AND WEAK SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KTS. SO EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS THAT FORM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN UNDER THE STEADY SHOWERS AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH STRATIFORM-LIKE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE AND 45KT JET STREAK
MOVING INTO SW COLORADO WILL HELP AID IN LIFT. IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...SURFACE HEATING MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION
BUT AM THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER AS A RESULT. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS GIVEN THE AMT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTION BUT DUE TO
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT REASSESS
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BEING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE ACTIVITY PICKS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NW COLORADO. NW
COLORADO WILL BE IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 45 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BEHIND IT INTO NE UTAH. THE
STEERING FLOW IS BETTER THAN SUNDAY WITH 7H WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND 5H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1 INCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-70.
STORMS WILL HAVE BETTER MOTION AND BETTER CHANCE OF SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ON THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE DRY AND MOIST AIR. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS WITH SOME
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS ON MONDAY. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS THE SHORTWAVE AND JET LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A FAIRLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SHUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE TAP INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. A DRIER PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY BUT APPEARS TOO WEAK AND DRY TO
PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA NEXT SATURDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS RETURN
AS EACH MODEL RUN APPEARS TO PUSH THE TIMING AHEAD BY 12 TO 24
HOURS. SO WILL TAKE THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER SW
COLORADO. SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL SPILL INTO SE UTAH. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL PRODUCE 4SM +TSRA CIGS BKN030. ILS CIGS AND OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE COMMON AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO ON SUNDAY...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
LONGER LIVED AND MERGERS MAY OCCUR TO ENHANCE +SHRA WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KPUB 020524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY...

FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SE CO. WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER NM...BEST T-STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NEWLY OPERATIONAL RADAR IN THE SAN JUANS SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE SW MTS...JUSTIFYING LIKELY POPS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVE. MORE QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER STORMS WILL SURVIVE MOVING ONTO THE SERN PLAINS E OF I-
25...BUT ISOLD POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE THERE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS...70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS.
EXPECT MOST OF THE T-STORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER
LATEST HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED ISOLD ACTIVITY
OVER THE SW MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST
LOW POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THIS AREA. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FOG FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
IF SUFFICIENT PRECIP CAN FALL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE.

TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD SPARK A FEW MORE
STORMS THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN
MTS. SFC WINDS SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPSLOPE COMPONENT SUN
AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST FORCING FOR STORMS ANCHORED
ALONG THE MTS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUN NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN
REGION AND ACRS CO.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING INTO THE SERN CORNER OF CO OVERNIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT.  BOT MODELS SHOW PCPN
CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE CONTDVD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE ERN MTNS.  FOR FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE NAM HAS MAINLY SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN
CORNER THRU THE NIGHT AND MON MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS. SINCE THERE IS A DISTURBANCE
IN THE AREA...WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS THRU THE
NIGHT. THRU THE DAY MON...THAT UPR TROF CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ID...WY AND NERN CO.  THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SCT
PCPN OVR THE HYR TRRN ON MON...WHILE THE NAM IS MAINLY DRY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE GFS HINTS AT
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.  MON NIGHT THE NAM SHOWS PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA ENDING BY LATE EVENING...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES PCPN OVR THE FAR
ERN BORDER AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

TUE AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA AND REMAINS IN PLACE ON
WED...WHICH WL KEEP THE MONSOON MSTR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING MTN AREA
SHOWERS/TSTMS.  ON THU A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS
WY...THEN PUSHING A FRONT THRU ERN CO.  THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AND MCS
OVR ERN FOR THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT AND LEAVES THE AREA
RATHER DRY. FOR NOW WL GO WITH THE DRY SOLUTION AND SEE HOW THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS.

FRI THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF CO.  THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE MSTR TO WORK ITS WAY BACK
TOWARD CO...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FAIRLY DRY THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 020524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY...

FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SE CO. WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER NM...BEST T-STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NEWLY OPERATIONAL RADAR IN THE SAN JUANS SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE SW MTS...JUSTIFYING LIKELY POPS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVE. MORE QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER STORMS WILL SURVIVE MOVING ONTO THE SERN PLAINS E OF I-
25...BUT ISOLD POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE THERE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS...70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS.
EXPECT MOST OF THE T-STORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER
LATEST HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED ISOLD ACTIVITY
OVER THE SW MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST
LOW POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THIS AREA. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FOG FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
IF SUFFICIENT PRECIP CAN FALL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE.

TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD SPARK A FEW MORE
STORMS THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN
MTS. SFC WINDS SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPSLOPE COMPONENT SUN
AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST FORCING FOR STORMS ANCHORED
ALONG THE MTS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUN NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN
REGION AND ACRS CO.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING INTO THE SERN CORNER OF CO OVERNIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT.  BOT MODELS SHOW PCPN
CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE CONTDVD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE ERN MTNS.  FOR FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE NAM HAS MAINLY SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN
CORNER THRU THE NIGHT AND MON MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS. SINCE THERE IS A DISTURBANCE
IN THE AREA...WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS THRU THE
NIGHT. THRU THE DAY MON...THAT UPR TROF CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ID...WY AND NERN CO.  THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SCT
PCPN OVR THE HYR TRRN ON MON...WHILE THE NAM IS MAINLY DRY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE GFS HINTS AT
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.  MON NIGHT THE NAM SHOWS PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA ENDING BY LATE EVENING...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES PCPN OVR THE FAR
ERN BORDER AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

TUE AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA AND REMAINS IN PLACE ON
WED...WHICH WL KEEP THE MONSOON MSTR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING MTN AREA
SHOWERS/TSTMS.  ON THU A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS
WY...THEN PUSHING A FRONT THRU ERN CO.  THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AND MCS
OVR ERN FOR THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT AND LEAVES THE AREA
RATHER DRY. FOR NOW WL GO WITH THE DRY SOLUTION AND SEE HOW THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS.

FRI THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF CO.  THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE MSTR TO WORK ITS WAY BACK
TOWARD CO...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FAIRLY DRY THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOU 020221
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
821 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED STORMS WERE STILL AFFECTING THE ERN PLAINS BUT SHOULD
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH GUSTY SE WINDS MOVED ACROSS THE AIRPORT
EARLIER. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY 10 PM AND BECOME MORE
SLY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 020221
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
821 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED STORMS WERE STILL AFFECTING THE ERN PLAINS BUT SHOULD
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH GUSTY SE WINDS MOVED ACROSS THE AIRPORT
EARLIER. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY 10 PM AND BECOME MORE
SLY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KGJT 012103
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
WITH AZ AND NM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS MORNING`S KGJT 12Z SOUNDING REPORTED
0.9 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW). THIS WAS UP SHARPLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. SO BETTER MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD AS EXPECTED...BUT BY
2 PM CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS. EXPECT THIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE NORTHERN
LIMIT FOR THIS DIURNAL CYCLE. BUT MORE EXCITEMENT IS IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
FADES. EVEN SO...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS STRIP OF HIGHER VORTICITY STAYS STRETCHED
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN EDGE. THEREFORE THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN FOCUS MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD TOWARDS MORNING.

SUNDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SEEN THIS WEEK MOVING OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AIDED BY A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA BEFORE REACHING THE I-70
CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS MODEST WITH VALUES OF
2000-3000 METERS SUNDAY MORNING SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH
EXTEND TOWARDS THE CO-WY BORDER WITH UP TO 1.3 INCHES NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW
AND WEAK SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KTS. SO EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS THAT FORM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN UNDER THE STEADY SHOWERS AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH STRATIFORM-LIKE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE AND 45KT JET STREAK
MOVING INTO SW COLORADO WILL HELP AID IN LIFT. IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...SURFACE HEATING MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION
BUT AM THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER AS A RESULT. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS GIVEN THE AMT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTION BUT DUE TO
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT REASSESS
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BEING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE ACTIVITY PICKS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NW COLORADO. NW
COLORADO WILL BE IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 45 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BEHIND IT INTO NE UTAH. THE
STEERING FLOW IS BETTER THAN SUNDAY WITH 7H WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND 5H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1 INCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-70.
STORMS WILL HAVE BETTER MOTION AND BETTER CHANCE OF SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ON THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE DRY AND MOIST AIR. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS WITH SOME
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS ON MONDAY. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS THE SHORTWAVE AND JET LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A FAIRLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SHUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE TAP INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. A DRIER PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY BUT APPEARS TOO WEAK AND DRY TO
PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA NEXT SATURDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS RETURN
AS EACH MODEL RUN APPEARS TO PUSH THE TIMING AHEAD BY 12 TO 24
HOURS. SO WILL TAKE THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW COLORADO AND SE UTAH THIS
MORNING WILL EXPAND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-70
CORRIDOR. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS
CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCD.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW TO WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING. OVER THE
SAN JUAN/ABAJO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
LINGER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

NE UTAH AND THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 012041
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
241 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY...

FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SE CO. WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER NM...BEST T-STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NEWLY OPERATIONAL RADAR IN THE SAN JUANS SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE SW MTS...JUSTIFYING LIKELY POPS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVE. MORE QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER STORMS WILL SURVIVE MOVING ONTO THE SERN PLAINS E OF I-
25...BUT ISOLD POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE THERE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS...70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS.
EXPECT MOST OF THE T-STORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER
LATEST HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED ISOLD ACTIVITY
OVER THE SW MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST
LOW POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THIS AREA. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FOG FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
IF SUFFICIENT PRECIP CAN FALL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE.

TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD SPARK A FEW MORE
STORMS THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN
MTS. SFC WINDS SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPSLOPE COMPONENT SUN
AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST FORCING FOR STORMS ANCHORED
ALONG THE MTS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUN NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN
REGION AND ACRS CO.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING INTO THE SERN CORNER OF CO OVERNIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT.  BOT MODELS SHOW PCPN
CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE CONTDVD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE ERN MTNS.  FOR FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE NAM HAS MAINLY SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN
CORNER THRU THE NIGHT AND MON MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS. SINCE THERE IS A DISTURBANCE
IN THE AREA...WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS THRU THE
NIGHT. THRU THE DAY MON...THAT UPR TROF CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ID...WY AND NERN CO.  THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SCT
PCPN OVR THE HYR TRRN ON MON...WHILE THE NAM IS MAINLY DRY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE GFS HINTS AT
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.  MON NIGHT THE NAM SHOWS PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA ENDING BY LATE EVENING...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES PCPN OVR THE FAR
ERN BORDER AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

TUE AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA AND REMAINS IN PLACE ON
WED...WHICH WL KEEP THE MONSOON MSTR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING MTN AREA
SHOWERS/TSTMS.  ON THU A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS
WY...THEN PUSHING A FRONT THRU ERN CO.  THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AND MCS
OVR ERN FOR THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT AND LEAVES THE AREA
RATHER DRY. FOR NOW WL GO WITH THE DRY SOLUTION AND SEE HOW THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS.

FRI THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF CO.  THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE MSTR TO WORK ITS WAY BACK
TOWARD CO...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FAIRLY DRY THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TS POTENTIAL AT THE TAF SITES...AT
LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THIS EVE AT KCOS AND KPUB. COULD SEE A
FEW MORE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE MONSOON REMAINS ACTIVE OVER NERN AZ AND NW NM. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF PRECIP...SOME LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KALS OR VC
EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF SE CO. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 012041
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
241 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY...

FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SE CO. WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER NM...BEST T-STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NEWLY OPERATIONAL RADAR IN THE SAN JUANS SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE SW MTS...JUSTIFYING LIKELY POPS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVE. MORE QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER STORMS WILL SURVIVE MOVING ONTO THE SERN PLAINS E OF I-
25...BUT ISOLD POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE THERE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS...70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS.
EXPECT MOST OF THE T-STORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER
LATEST HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED ISOLD ACTIVITY
OVER THE SW MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST
LOW POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THIS AREA. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FOG FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
IF SUFFICIENT PRECIP CAN FALL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE.

TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD SPARK A FEW MORE
STORMS THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN
MTS. SFC WINDS SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPSLOPE COMPONENT SUN
AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST FORCING FOR STORMS ANCHORED
ALONG THE MTS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUN NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN
REGION AND ACRS CO.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING INTO THE SERN CORNER OF CO OVERNIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT.  BOT MODELS SHOW PCPN
CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE CONTDVD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE ERN MTNS.  FOR FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE NAM HAS MAINLY SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN
CORNER THRU THE NIGHT AND MON MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS. SINCE THERE IS A DISTURBANCE
IN THE AREA...WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS THRU THE
NIGHT. THRU THE DAY MON...THAT UPR TROF CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ID...WY AND NERN CO.  THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SCT
PCPN OVR THE HYR TRRN ON MON...WHILE THE NAM IS MAINLY DRY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE GFS HINTS AT
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.  MON NIGHT THE NAM SHOWS PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA ENDING BY LATE EVENING...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES PCPN OVR THE FAR
ERN BORDER AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

TUE AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA AND REMAINS IN PLACE ON
WED...WHICH WL KEEP THE MONSOON MSTR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING MTN AREA
SHOWERS/TSTMS.  ON THU A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS
WY...THEN PUSHING A FRONT THRU ERN CO.  THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AND MCS
OVR ERN FOR THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT AND LEAVES THE AREA
RATHER DRY. FOR NOW WL GO WITH THE DRY SOLUTION AND SEE HOW THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS.

FRI THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF CO.  THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE MSTR TO WORK ITS WAY BACK
TOWARD CO...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FAIRLY DRY THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TS POTENTIAL AT THE TAF SITES...AT
LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THIS EVE AT KCOS AND KPUB. COULD SEE A
FEW MORE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE MONSOON REMAINS ACTIVE OVER NERN AZ AND NW NM. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF PRECIP...SOME LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KALS OR VC
EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF SE CO. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 012023
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF CO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT APA...DEN
AND BJC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DEVELOPING SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SO INCLUDED VCSH WITH LIGHT
GUSTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN TRANSITION AROUND TO DRAINAGE BY 04Z
BEFORE GOING NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 012023
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF CO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT APA...DEN
AND BJC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DEVELOPING SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SO INCLUDED VCSH WITH LIGHT
GUSTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN TRANSITION AROUND TO DRAINAGE BY 04Z
BEFORE GOING NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 012023
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF CO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT APA...DEN
AND BJC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DEVELOPING SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SO INCLUDED VCSH WITH LIGHT
GUSTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN TRANSITION AROUND TO DRAINAGE BY 04Z
BEFORE GOING NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011716
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS
ALONG WITH LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW MOVING STRONG
VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER
CORES MOVE OVER BURN SCARS OR ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE NEAR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MONSOON CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF WEEK THEN DRIER LAST HALF...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SUMMER MONSOON
PATTERN WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DURING THIS PERIOD...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO BECOME PREVALENT OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS
THE MONSOON TO THE SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS...LEAVING COLORADO WITH A
MUCH DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. DUE TO THE DRIER AND HIGHER
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PRIMARY
STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF TS AT THE TAF SITES FROM
20Z THROUGH 03Z. PROBABILITY OF TS WILL BE GREATEST AT KALS
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD TS COULD BE PRESENT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT KPUB AND KCOS. MAIN THREAT FROM TS WILL BE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS...IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE LOW CIGS AND/OR FG
DEVELOP AT KALS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW
AS THE PROBABILITY ATTM IS STILL LOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SE CO AREA. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 011716
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS
ALONG WITH LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW MOVING STRONG
VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER
CORES MOVE OVER BURN SCARS OR ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE NEAR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MONSOON CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF WEEK THEN DRIER LAST HALF...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SUMMER MONSOON
PATTERN WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DURING THIS PERIOD...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO BECOME PREVALENT OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS
THE MONSOON TO THE SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS...LEAVING COLORADO WITH A
MUCH DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. DUE TO THE DRIER AND HIGHER
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PRIMARY
STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF TS AT THE TAF SITES FROM
20Z THROUGH 03Z. PROBABILITY OF TS WILL BE GREATEST AT KALS
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD TS COULD BE PRESENT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT KPUB AND KCOS. MAIN THREAT FROM TS WILL BE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS...IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE LOW CIGS AND/OR FG
DEVELOP AT KALS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW
AS THE PROBABILITY ATTM IS STILL LOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SE CO AREA. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011636
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS
ALONG WITH LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW MOVING STRONG
VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER
CORES MOVE OVER BURN SCARS OR ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE NEAR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MONSOON CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF WEEK THEN DRIER LAST HALF...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SUMMER MONSOON
PATTERN WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DURING THIS PERIOD...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO BECOME PREVALENT OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS
THE MONSOON TO THE SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS...LEAVING COLORADO WITH A
MUCH DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. DUE TO THE DRIER AND HIGHER
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PRIMARY
STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z...AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THE TERMINAL SEES
RAIN...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FOG HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER 22Z.  IF THEY DO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
THEY WILL BRING REDUCED VIS AND CIGS TO THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011625
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1025 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY.
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
AROUND MESA VERDE NP WESTWARD THIS MORNING...AND THE GRIDS WERE ON
THE DRY SIDE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR A
JUST FEW OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW COLORADO AND SE UTAH WILL  THIS
MORNING WILL EXPAND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-70
CORRIDOR. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS
CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCD.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING. OVER THE SAN
JUAN/ABAJO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 011549
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
949 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY FOR THIS
MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING A
DECENT CAP WITH QG SUBSIDENCE SO KEPT PRECIP ISOLATED TO THE
SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO TRIM BACK A LITTLE BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEXT MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE NE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 011549
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
949 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY FOR THIS
MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING A
DECENT CAP WITH QG SUBSIDENCE SO KEPT PRECIP ISOLATED TO THE
SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO TRIM BACK A LITTLE BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEXT MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE NE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 011549
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
949 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY FOR THIS
MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING A
DECENT CAP WITH QG SUBSIDENCE SO KEPT PRECIP ISOLATED TO THE
SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO TRIM BACK A LITTLE BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEXT MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE THE SW THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE NE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011533
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY.
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
AROUND MESA VERDE NP WESTWARD THIS MORNING...AND THE GRIDS WERE ON
THE DRY SIDE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR A
JUST FEW OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND
NORTH AND WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I70 CORRIDOR AND
SE UTAH. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS
CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011533
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY.
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
AROUND MESA VERDE NP WESTWARD THIS MORNING...AND THE GRIDS WERE ON
THE DRY SIDE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR A
JUST FEW OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND
NORTH AND WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I70 CORRIDOR AND
SE UTAH. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS
CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011533
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY.
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
AROUND MESA VERDE NP WESTWARD THIS MORNING...AND THE GRIDS WERE ON
THE DRY SIDE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR A
JUST FEW OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND
NORTH AND WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I70 CORRIDOR AND
SE UTAH. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS
CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011533
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY.
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
AROUND MESA VERDE NP WESTWARD THIS MORNING...AND THE GRIDS WERE ON
THE DRY SIDE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR A
JUST FEW OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND
NORTH AND WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I70 CORRIDOR AND
SE UTAH. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS
CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011136
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND
NORTH AND WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I70 CORRIDOR AND
SE UTAH. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS
CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011136
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND
NORTH AND WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I70 CORRIDOR AND
SE UTAH. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS
CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011136
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND
NORTH AND WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I70 CORRIDOR AND
SE UTAH. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS
CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 011136
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SW COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND
NORTH AND WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I70 CORRIDOR AND
SE UTAH. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS
CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW MOVING STRONG
VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER
CORES MOVE OVER BURN SCARS OR ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE NEAR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MONSOON CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF WEEK THEN DRIER LAST HALF...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SUMMER MONSOON
PATTERN WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DURING THIS PERIOD...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO BECOME PREVALENT OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS
THE MONSOON TO THE SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS...LEAVING COLORADO WITH A
MUCH DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. DUE TO THE DRIER AND HIGHER
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PRIMARY
STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z...AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THE TERMINAL SEES
RAIN...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FOG HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER 22Z.  IF THEY DO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
THEY WILL BRING REDUCED VIS AND CIGS TO THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW MOVING STRONG
VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER
CORES MOVE OVER BURN SCARS OR ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE NEAR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MONSOON CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF WEEK THEN DRIER LAST HALF...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SUMMER MONSOON
PATTERN WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DURING THIS PERIOD...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO BECOME PREVALENT OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS
THE MONSOON TO THE SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS...LEAVING COLORADO WITH A
MUCH DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. DUE TO THE DRIER AND HIGHER
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PRIMARY
STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z...AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THE TERMINAL SEES
RAIN...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FOG HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER 22Z.  IF THEY DO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
THEY WILL BRING REDUCED VIS AND CIGS TO THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW MOVING STRONG
VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER
CORES MOVE OVER BURN SCARS OR ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE NEAR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MONSOON CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF WEEK THEN DRIER LAST HALF...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SUMMER MONSOON
PATTERN WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DURING THIS PERIOD...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO BECOME PREVALENT OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS
THE MONSOON TO THE SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS...LEAVING COLORADO WITH A
MUCH DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. DUE TO THE DRIER AND HIGHER
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PRIMARY
STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z...AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THE TERMINAL SEES
RAIN...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FOG HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER 22Z.  IF THEY DO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
THEY WILL BRING REDUCED VIS AND CIGS TO THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KPUB 011036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT
WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW MOVING STRONG
VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA...AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER
CORES MOVE OVER BURN SCARS OR ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE NEAR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MONSOON CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF WEEK THEN DRIER LAST HALF...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SUMMER MONSOON
PATTERN WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. DURING THIS PERIOD...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OVER NEW MEXICO...ALLOWING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO BECOME PREVALENT OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS
THE MONSOON TO THE SOUTH FOR A FEW DAYS...LEAVING COLORADO WITH A
MUCH DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. DUE TO THE DRIER AND HIGHER
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PRIMARY
STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z...AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THE TERMINAL SEES
RAIN...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FOG HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY AFTER 22Z.  IF THEY DO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
THEY WILL BRING REDUCED VIS AND CIGS TO THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010950
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL PREVAIL OVER SW COLORADO OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 17Z
SATURDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH...INCLUDING POPULATED VALLEYS AND NEARBY TAF SITES. LOCAL
+SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN
TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER WELL BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 010950
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL PREVAIL OVER SW COLORADO OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 17Z
SATURDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH...INCLUDING POPULATED VALLEYS AND NEARBY TAF SITES. LOCAL
+SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN
TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER WELL BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010950
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH MANY OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS
AND BOOKCLIFFS REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
CAPE VALUES IN SE UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND LATE
MORNING ORIENTED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AS MANY IN THE REGION WILL SUSPECT WITH THE RISING
DEWPOINTS. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAST TOO LONG WITH
PRACTICALLY NO VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AT STEERING LEVELS...BUT
LIFTING IN CLEAR AREAS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER. LIFTING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE AIDED BY WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES AND TEND TO BE LONG-LIVED AND MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECIPITATION TO STAY TOGETHER
FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST
FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL TRYING TO GAUGE WHETHER TIMING OF BEST STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING MAX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIDING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FOLLOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NW COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

RIDGE AXIS RECOVERS ON TUESDAY THAT LEADS TO SOME STABILIZATION.
WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TEMPORARILY
SHUTS DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES.

A SHORT WAVE SKIRTS NRN COLORADO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT HAS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING OR MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANY
SHOWERS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CORE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD AND
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL PREVAIL OVER SW COLORADO OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 17Z
SATURDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH...INCLUDING POPULATED VALLEYS AND NEARBY TAF SITES. LOCAL
+SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN
TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER WELL BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010935
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
335 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TODAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME RETURN OUTFLOW FROM
SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOME SORT OF EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010935
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
335 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TODAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME RETURN OUTFLOW FROM
SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOME SORT OF EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010935
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
335 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TODAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME RETURN OUTFLOW FROM
SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOME SORT OF EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010935
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
335 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TODAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME RETURN OUTFLOW FROM
SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOME SORT OF EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010935
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
335 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ELONGATED UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. AIRMASS IN THIS FLOW IS RATHER DRY
AND STABLE OVER FAR NORTHERN COLORADO AND QG FIELDS STILL SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
MID LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FCST TO SWING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
BEST RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH THE WAVE
SHOWING UP STRONGEST ON THE NAM AND WEAKEST ON THE CANADIAN GEM.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A SUITABLE COMPROMISE AMONG THE  OPERATIONAL
MODELS. THAT SAID...ECMWF INDICATES SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THIS S/W
TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ITS
PASSAGE WEAKENS AND DISPLACES EASTWARD THE RESIDENT UPPER RIDGE AND
THE SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA. ECMWF QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND YET THE EC
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW LIGHT/MODERATE QPF OVER MUCH OF SWRN/CNTRL
COLORADO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS...SHOW A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT QPF EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NOT SHOWING UP IN THIS
LATEST MODEL RUN IS THE BAND OF 1200-2200 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NAM INDICATES A
NW-SE BAND OF 1000-1400 CAPE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE
STATE AT THAT TIME. CAPES ON THE OTHER MODELS UNDER 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAT T-STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...HVY RAINFALL AND STG GUSTY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 30-50 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND 10-30 PCT POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. AND WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER GOING WITH MAX TEMPS A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST
FORCING AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER MTN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
OVER THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW
A 700-500 MB SHEAR/DEFORMATION AXIS AND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVING OUT ACRS THE NERN PLAINS. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH 0-3 KM
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. STILL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL POCKETS
OF LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 10-20 PCT POPS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS
SLIGHTLY BETTER. SO WILL RAISE POPS BY 10-20 PCT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE.

ON TUESDAY...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL FEEL MODEST AFFECTS
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPS AND UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO REGAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND WARMING
ALOFT...SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP/T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ACRS THE
FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE S/W TROUGH
BRUSHES THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MTN REGION CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH. LOCAL AIRMASS ALSO CONTINUES
TO WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK WITH MID-90S MAX TEMPS COMMON ON THE PLAINS.

ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN
FRINGE FLATTENS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES EAST ACRS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXCEPT
PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY SHWRS OVER THE HIGH MTNS. FRIDAY APPEARS
TO START OUT DRY. THEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING A SMATTERING OF SHWRS/T-STORMS AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TODAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS. COULD BE SOME RETURN OUTFLOW FROM
SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOME SORT OF EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010545
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TONIGHT...
THE TONGUE OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOME OF
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG OUR EASTERN
EDGE NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR
COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WETTER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE ASPEN/VAIL PASS AREAS SOUTHWEST TO PAGE AZ. ALSO AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE OVER SOME VALLEYS INCREASING
FOR A SPELL. AFTER SUNSET...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY (LESS THUNDERY) BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS WETTER PORTION OF THE AREA.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTH...AND AROUND NORMAL UNDER THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...STILL
EXPECTING SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO DRAW THE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN TONIGHT. RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN SOME ZONES
THEY MAY NEED TO RAISED EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DYNAMIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 OF AN INCH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY...LIKELY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...AND THUS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD TO THE NORTH
OF AN E-W ELONGATED UPPER HIGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUR CWA UNDER A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND. RAISED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS
ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. AND MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY
YET BE A TAD TOO COOL.

FRIDAY...
NOW LOOKS LIKE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR CWA...AS UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL PREVAIL OVER SW COLORADO OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 17Z
SATURDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH...INCLUDING POPULATED VALLEYS AND NEARBY TAF SITES. LOCAL
+SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN
TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER WELL BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 010545
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TONIGHT...
THE TONGUE OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOME OF
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG OUR EASTERN
EDGE NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR
COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WETTER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE ASPEN/VAIL PASS AREAS SOUTHWEST TO PAGE AZ. ALSO AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE OVER SOME VALLEYS INCREASING
FOR A SPELL. AFTER SUNSET...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY (LESS THUNDERY) BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS WETTER PORTION OF THE AREA.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTH...AND AROUND NORMAL UNDER THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...STILL
EXPECTING SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO DRAW THE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN TONIGHT. RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN SOME ZONES
THEY MAY NEED TO RAISED EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DYNAMIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 OF AN INCH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY...LIKELY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...AND THUS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD TO THE NORTH
OF AN E-W ELONGATED UPPER HIGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUR CWA UNDER A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND. RAISED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS
ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. AND MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY
YET BE A TAD TOO COOL.

FRIDAY...
NOW LOOKS LIKE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR CWA...AS UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL PREVAIL OVER SW COLORADO OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 17Z
SATURDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH...INCLUDING POPULATED VALLEYS AND NEARBY TAF SITES. LOCAL
+SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN
TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER WELL BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 010545
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TONIGHT...
THE TONGUE OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOME OF
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG OUR EASTERN
EDGE NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR
COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WETTER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE ASPEN/VAIL PASS AREAS SOUTHWEST TO PAGE AZ. ALSO AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE OVER SOME VALLEYS INCREASING
FOR A SPELL. AFTER SUNSET...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY (LESS THUNDERY) BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS WETTER PORTION OF THE AREA.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTH...AND AROUND NORMAL UNDER THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...STILL
EXPECTING SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO DRAW THE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN TONIGHT. RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN SOME ZONES
THEY MAY NEED TO RAISED EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DYNAMIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 OF AN INCH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY...LIKELY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...AND THUS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD TO THE NORTH
OF AN E-W ELONGATED UPPER HIGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUR CWA UNDER A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND. RAISED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS
ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. AND MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY
YET BE A TAD TOO COOL.

FRIDAY...
NOW LOOKS LIKE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR CWA...AS UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL PREVAIL OVER SW COLORADO OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 17Z
SATURDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH...INCLUDING POPULATED VALLEYS AND NEARBY TAF SITES. LOCAL
+SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN
TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER WELL BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KGJT 010545
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TONIGHT...
THE TONGUE OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOME OF
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG OUR EASTERN
EDGE NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR
COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WETTER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE ASPEN/VAIL PASS AREAS SOUTHWEST TO PAGE AZ. ALSO AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE OVER SOME VALLEYS INCREASING
FOR A SPELL. AFTER SUNSET...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY (LESS THUNDERY) BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS WETTER PORTION OF THE AREA.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTH...AND AROUND NORMAL UNDER THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...STILL
EXPECTING SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO DRAW THE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN TONIGHT. RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN SOME ZONES
THEY MAY NEED TO RAISED EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DYNAMIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 OF AN INCH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY...LIKELY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...AND THUS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD TO THE NORTH
OF AN E-W ELONGATED UPPER HIGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUR CWA UNDER A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND. RAISED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS
ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. AND MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY
YET BE A TAD TOO COOL.

FRIDAY...
NOW LOOKS LIKE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR CWA...AS UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL PREVAIL OVER SW COLORADO OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 17Z
SATURDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH...INCLUDING POPULATED VALLEYS AND NEARBY TAF SITES. LOCAL
+SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN
TAF SITES.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW WANE AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER WELL BEYOND 06Z.

NE UTAH AND A THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...PF



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPUB 010522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 010522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOU 010147
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
747 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TSTMS HAD ENDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SO WILL DROP POPS IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ONE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO SLY.
OVERALL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY S/SSW BASED ON LATEST DATA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010147
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
747 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TSTMS HAD ENDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SO WILL DROP POPS IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ONE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO SLY.
OVERALL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY S/SSW BASED ON LATEST DATA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010147
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
747 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TSTMS HAD ENDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SO WILL DROP POPS IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ONE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO SLY.
OVERALL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY S/SSW BASED ON LATEST DATA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010147
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
747 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TSTMS HAD ENDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SO WILL DROP POPS IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ONE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO SLY.
OVERALL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY S/SSW BASED ON LATEST DATA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RPK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 010147
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
747 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TSTMS HAD ENDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SO WILL DROP POPS IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ONE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO SLY.
OVERALL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY S/SSW BASED ON LATEST DATA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RPK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312249
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TONIGHT...
THE TONGUE OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOME OF
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG OUR EASTERN
EDGE NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR
COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WETTER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE ASPEN/VAIL PASS AREAS SOUTHWEST TO PAGE AZ. ALSO AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE OVER SOME VALLEYS INCREASING
FOR A SPELL. AFTER SUNSET...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY (LESS THUNDERY) BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS WETTER PORTION OF THE AREA.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTH...AND AROUND NORMAL UNDER THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...STILL
EXPECTING SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO DRAW THE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN TONIGHT. RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN SOME ZONES
THEY MAY NEED TO RAISED EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DYNAMIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 OF AN INCH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY...LIKELY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...AND THUS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD TO THE NORTH
OF AN E-W ELONGATED UPPER HIGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUR CWA UNDER A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND. RAISED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS
ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. AND MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY
YET BE A TAD TOO COOL.

FRIDAY...
NOW LOOKS LIKE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR CWA...AS UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM KCNY TO KASE WITH BEST STORMS IMPACTING THE SAN JUANS
AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THIS LINE. ILS BREAKPOINTS BEING REACHED AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES WHERE STORMS OCCUR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST ACTIVITY WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...MDA




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312249
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TONIGHT...
THE TONGUE OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOME OF
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG OUR EASTERN
EDGE NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR
COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WETTER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE ASPEN/VAIL PASS AREAS SOUTHWEST TO PAGE AZ. ALSO AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE OVER SOME VALLEYS INCREASING
FOR A SPELL. AFTER SUNSET...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY (LESS THUNDERY) BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS WETTER PORTION OF THE AREA.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTH...AND AROUND NORMAL UNDER THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...STILL
EXPECTING SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO DRAW THE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN TONIGHT. RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN SOME ZONES
THEY MAY NEED TO RAISED EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DYNAMIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 OF AN INCH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY...LIKELY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...AND THUS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD TO THE NORTH
OF AN E-W ELONGATED UPPER HIGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUR CWA UNDER A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND. RAISED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS
ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. AND MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY
YET BE A TAD TOO COOL.

FRIDAY...
NOW LOOKS LIKE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR CWA...AS UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM KCNY TO KASE WITH BEST STORMS IMPACTING THE SAN JUANS
AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THIS LINE. ILS BREAKPOINTS BEING REACHED AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES WHERE STORMS OCCUR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST ACTIVITY WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...MDA




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312249
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TONIGHT...
THE TONGUE OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOME OF
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG OUR EASTERN
EDGE NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR
COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WETTER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE ASPEN/VAIL PASS AREAS SOUTHWEST TO PAGE AZ. ALSO AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE OVER SOME VALLEYS INCREASING
FOR A SPELL. AFTER SUNSET...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY (LESS THUNDERY) BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS WETTER PORTION OF THE AREA.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTH...AND AROUND NORMAL UNDER THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...STILL
EXPECTING SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO DRAW THE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN TONIGHT. RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN SOME ZONES
THEY MAY NEED TO RAISED EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DYNAMIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 OF AN INCH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY...LIKELY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...AND THUS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD TO THE NORTH
OF AN E-W ELONGATED UPPER HIGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUR CWA UNDER A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND. RAISED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS
ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. AND MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY
YET BE A TAD TOO COOL.

FRIDAY...
NOW LOOKS LIKE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR CWA...AS UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM KCNY TO KASE WITH BEST STORMS IMPACTING THE SAN JUANS
AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THIS LINE. ILS BREAKPOINTS BEING REACHED AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES WHERE STORMS OCCUR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST ACTIVITY WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...MDA




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312249
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TONIGHT...
THE TONGUE OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOME OF
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG OUR EASTERN
EDGE NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR
COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WETTER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE ASPEN/VAIL PASS AREAS SOUTHWEST TO PAGE AZ. ALSO AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE OVER SOME VALLEYS INCREASING
FOR A SPELL. AFTER SUNSET...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY (LESS THUNDERY) BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS WETTER PORTION OF THE AREA.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTH...AND AROUND NORMAL UNDER THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...STILL
EXPECTING SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO DRAW THE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN TONIGHT. RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN SOME ZONES
THEY MAY NEED TO RAISED EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DYNAMIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 OF AN INCH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY...LIKELY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...AND THUS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD TO THE NORTH
OF AN E-W ELONGATED UPPER HIGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUR CWA UNDER A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND. RAISED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS
ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. AND MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY
YET BE A TAD TOO COOL.

FRIDAY...
NOW LOOKS LIKE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR CWA...AS UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM KCNY TO KASE WITH BEST STORMS IMPACTING THE SAN JUANS
AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THIS LINE. ILS BREAKPOINTS BEING REACHED AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES WHERE STORMS OCCUR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST ACTIVITY WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...MDA




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TONIGHT...
THE TONGUE OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER AZ/NM TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOME OF
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG OUR EASTERN
EDGE NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR
COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WETTER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE ASPEN/VAIL PASS AREAS SOUTHWEST TO PAGE AZ. ALSO AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE OVER SOME VALLEYS INCREASING
FOR A SPELL. AFTER SUNSET...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY (LESS THUNDERY) BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS WETTER PORTION OF THE AREA.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE DRIER AIR
OVER THE NORTH...AND AROUND NORMAL UNDER THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THINKING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...STILL
EXPECTING SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO DRAW THE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN TONIGHT. RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN SOME ZONES
THEY MAY NEED TO RAISED EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DYNAMIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 OF AN INCH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY...LIKELY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...AND THUS WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD TO THE NORTH
OF AN E-W ELONGATED UPPER HIGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUR CWA UNDER A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND. RAISED MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES F FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS
ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. AND MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY
YET BE A TAD TOO COOL.

FRIDAY...
NOW LOOKS LIKE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR CWA...AS UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER SOUTHWEST CO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH
THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTH...BUT WILL MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
CLOUDS ALSO WILL THICKEN WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER AROUND 20Z SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
VALLEYS OF SW COLORADO AND SE UTAH. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
(G30-40KTS) AND LOCAL +SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ILS CIGS MAY OCCUR FROM ANY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY
PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 312138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
338 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY IMPACT
ON THE TERMINALS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-
LIVED. STORMS WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 312138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
338 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

STILL EXPECT VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY IMPACT
ON THE TERMINALS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-
LIVED. STORMS WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 312011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
211 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SE WITH LIGHT GUSTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OFF THE FOOTHILLS
WILL HAVE HIGH ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VCSH WITH A BKN DECK HOVERING
AROUND 090 BUT DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO MAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER DEN
OR APA. BJC COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 20 AND
22Z THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 312011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
211 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SE WITH LIGHT GUSTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OFF THE FOOTHILLS
WILL HAVE HIGH ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VCSH WITH A BKN DECK HOVERING
AROUND 090 BUT DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO MAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER DEN
OR APA. BJC COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 20 AND
22Z THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 312011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
211 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AND PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SLOWER SO
SOME STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT OFF THE
HILLS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAPPED ATM AT 500 MB THAT
WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS OFF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AT 700MB. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
BEGINNING SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND BROADEN/
INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SE WITH LIGHT GUSTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OFF THE FOOTHILLS
WILL HAVE HIGH ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VCSH WITH A BKN DECK HOVERING
AROUND 090 BUT DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO MAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER DEN
OR APA. BJC COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 20 AND
22Z THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 311711
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION START TO BUILD
OVER THE SW MTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TO ADJUST POPS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER BACA...AND NOW NORTHWARD INTO PROWERS COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES...ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. ISOLATED TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...GENERALLY IN THE 21Z
THROUGH 02Z TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/TS WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 311711
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION START TO BUILD
OVER THE SW MTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TO ADJUST POPS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER BACA...AND NOW NORTHWARD INTO PROWERS COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO BACA
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AREAS OF FOG NEAR LAMAR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
MODELS DO AGREE THAT ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT...AND AREAS OVER BACA COUNTY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER NEW
MEXICO...ALLOWING MONSOON DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
INTO COLORADO...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEERING WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US ON
THESE 2 DAYS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS
BOTH EVENINGS. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A CONCERN. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING BY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRIER DAYS AS
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS OVER COLORADO. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS REALLY QUIET...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUIET
OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES...ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. ISOLATED TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...GENERALLY IN THE 21Z
THROUGH 02Z TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/TS WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THESE PERIODS PROVIDING STRONG
HEATING...SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.

DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND A
DISTURBANCE OVER NW NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH
THE SE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON. LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO NUDGE THIS MOISTURE FURTHER
NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE GENERALLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POPS NORTH OF
THE SAN JUANS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL SHOW LITTLE
MOVEMENT TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SOUTH.

SCATTERED STORMS LINGER BEYOND SUNSET OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH ISOLATED STORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE SEEN FOR SATURDAY WITH NO GOOD FORCING UNDER
THE BROAD RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE SRN BAJA TIP
GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ERN PACIFIC CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION. THIS DISTURBANCE RIDES THE TOP OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...IN THE PROCESS DRAWS UP MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES LESS
NUMEROUS OVER THE WRN PORTION AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. THIS DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON STORMS BECOMING LIMITED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.

THE NEXT MONSOONAL SURGE STREAMS THROUGH ARIZONA BEFORE REACHING
ERN UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR NEXT THURSDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CORRELATED WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND HUMIDITY. THE WARMEST DAY OCCURRING NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE
DRIEST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER SOUTHWEST CO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH
THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTH...BUT WILL MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
CLOUDS ALSO WILL THICKEN WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER AROUND 20Z SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
VALLEYS OF SW COLORADO AND SE UTAH. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
(G30-40KTS) AND LOCAL +SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ILS CIGS MAY OCCUR FROM ANY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY
PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THESE PERIODS PROVIDING STRONG
HEATING...SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.

DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND A
DISTURBANCE OVER NW NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH
THE SE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON. LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO NUDGE THIS MOISTURE FURTHER
NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE GENERALLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POPS NORTH OF
THE SAN JUANS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL SHOW LITTLE
MOVEMENT TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SOUTH.

SCATTERED STORMS LINGER BEYOND SUNSET OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH ISOLATED STORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE SEEN FOR SATURDAY WITH NO GOOD FORCING UNDER
THE BROAD RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE SRN BAJA TIP
GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ERN PACIFIC CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION. THIS DISTURBANCE RIDES THE TOP OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...IN THE PROCESS DRAWS UP MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES LESS
NUMEROUS OVER THE WRN PORTION AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. THIS DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON STORMS BECOMING LIMITED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.

THE NEXT MONSOONAL SURGE STREAMS THROUGH ARIZONA BEFORE REACHING
ERN UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR NEXT THURSDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CORRELATED WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND HUMIDITY. THE WARMEST DAY OCCURRING NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE
DRIEST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER SOUTHWEST CO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH
THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTH...BUT WILL MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
CLOUDS ALSO WILL THICKEN WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER AROUND 20Z SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
VALLEYS OF SW COLORADO AND SE UTAH. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
(G30-40KTS) AND LOCAL +SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ILS CIGS MAY OCCUR FROM ANY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY
PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH




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