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000
FXUS65 KPUB 071605
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
905 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS FOR TODAY, AND UPDATED FIRE WX
GRIDS BASED ON 12Z NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENTLY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS BRISK FLOW IS
PROVIDING FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN VERY MILD FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH 345 AM...WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...KEEPING
COLORADO UNDER DRY BUT COOL N-NW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THE E PLAINS AND BACKING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S...AND 30S FOR THE SLV. THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING SHOULD
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING ALOFT BY MID TO LATE
WEEK AS WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY WILL START TO SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 0 TO +4C RANGE.  THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS BACK IN THE
50S TO MID 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
VALLEY AND MTN COMMUNITIES...A GOOD WARM UP BY FEB STANDARDS WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SNOW PACK
SHOULD SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT OFF ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY THROUGH INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.  NEXT TROF WILL EITHER GLANCE BY TO THE NORTH
ACCORDING TO THE GFS...OR DROP THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ACCORDING TO
ECMWF.  EITHER WAY SUGGESTS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.  GFS KEEPS FORECAST
LARGELY DRY WITH SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF
SUGGESTS A LATTER FRONTAL TIMING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
SYSTEM DROPS INTO NM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT SO
WILL HOLD THE COURSE TO MODEL BLENDS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ASIDE FROM SOME MTN
SNOW SHOWERS ENTERING THE CONTDVD ON SUNDAY. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE E PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALSO...BRISK
N-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WEAK DRY SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE PALMER DVD THIS MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NORTH WINDS GUSTING
TO 20-25 KTS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. MOORE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE



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000
FXUS65 KBOU 071353
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
653 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ADDED SOME LIGHT POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LIGHT SNOW
THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN AREA OF JET-INDUCED SNOW MOVING SOUTH
FROM WYOMNING AND NEBRASKA. NOT EXPECTING IT TO PUSH IN THAT
FAR...AND WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL...AGAIN LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A NNW-SSE ORIENTED JET DROPPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHILE HELPING TO BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE GRADIENT CAUSING THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE MODERATED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FURTHER
EAST...THE PLAINS WERE UNDER AN INVERSION YESTERDAY...BUT NOW WITH
THE MIXING FROM THE FRONT AND THE STRONG WINDS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 50 KTS ABOUT 1000 FEET OFF THE GROUND OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND...DON`T BELIEVE ENOUGH
MIXING WILL OCCUR TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN...HOWEVER EXPECT
GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CRUSTED
OVER....BUT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS WITH LOOSER SNOW THAT CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO
YESTERDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN MAY HELP KEEP
THEM FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A DRY AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEK. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO SLOWLY DECREASING. UNTIL THEN...
IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESUME THEIR WARMING TREND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PUSHING BACK TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BY TUESDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND THEN
LOWER TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO AID WARMING. A HEALTHY SNOWPACK ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL HAVE MORE OF A LIMITING FACTOR THERE...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS PUSHING TO 50F OR HIGHER BY WEDNESDAY AS
SNOWMELT AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER APPEARS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...LOOKS LIKE MORE
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. A TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE
ANTICYCLONING INTO THE METRO AREA. CURRENT WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE IS A BOUNDARY OF THE ANTICYCLONING
WINDS JUST EAST OF KDEN. BELIEVE THE STRONGER WEST WINDS WILL HOLD
THAT BOUNDARY FROM PROGRESSING ANY FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING.
WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS PUSH IN
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. KBJC MAY STAY GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST
FOR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 071057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENTLY...BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS BRISK FLOW IS
PROVIDING FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN VERY MILD FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH 345 AM...WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...KEEPING
COLORADO UNDER DRY BUT COOL N-NW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THE E PLAINS AND BACKING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S...AND 30S FOR THE SLV. THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING SHOULD
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. MOORE


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING ALOFT BY MID TO LATE
WEEK AS WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY WILL START TO SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 0 TO +4C RANGE.  THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS BACK IN THE
50S TO MID 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
VALLEY AND MTN COMMUNITIES...A GOOD WARM UP BY FEB STANDARDS WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SNOW PACK
SHOULD SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT OFF ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY THROUGH INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.  NEXT TROF WILL EITHER GLANCE BY TO THE NORTH
ACCORDING TO THE GFS...OR DROP THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ACCORDING TO
ECMWF.  EITHER WAY SUGGESTS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.  GFS KEEPS FORECAST
LARGELY DRY WITH SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF
SUGGESTS A LATTER FRONTAL TIMING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
SYSTEM DROPS INTO NM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT SO
WILL HOLD THE COURSE TO MODEL BLENDS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ASIDE FROM SOME MTN
SNOW SHOWERS ENTERING THE CONTDVD ON SUNDAY. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE E PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALSO...BRISK
N-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WEAK DRY SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE PALMER DVD THIS MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NORTH WINDS GUSTING
TO 20-25 KTS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 071051
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
351 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A NNW-SSE ORIENTED JET DROPPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHILE HELPING TO BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE GRADIENT CAUSING THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE MODERATED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FURTHER
EAST...THE PLAINS WERE UNDER AN INVERSION YESTERDAY...BUT NOW WITH
THE MIXING FROM THE FRONT AND THE STRONG WINDS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 50 KTS ABOUT 1000 FEET OFF THE GROUND OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND...DON`T BELIEVE ENOUGH
MIXING WILL OCCUR TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN...HOWEVER EXPECT
GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CRUSTED
OVER....BUT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS WITH LOOSER SNOW THAT CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO
YESTERDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN MAY HELP KEEP
THEM FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A DRY AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEK. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO SLOWLY DECREASING. UNTIL THEN...
IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESUME THEIR WARMING TREND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PUSHING BACK TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BY TUESDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND THEN
LOWER TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO AID WARMING. A HEALTHY SNOWPACK ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL HAVE MORE OF A LIMITING FACTOR THERE...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS PUSHING TO 50F OR HIGHER BY WEDNESDAY AS
SNOWMELT AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER APPEARS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...LOOKS LIKE MORE
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. A TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE
ANTICYCLONING INTO THE METRO AREA. CURRENT WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE IS A BOUNDARY OF THE ANTICYCLONING
WINDS JUST EAST OF KDEN. BELIEVE THE STRONGER WEST WINDS WILL HOLD
THAT BOUNDARY FROM PROGRESSING ANY FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING.
WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS PUSH IN
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. KBJC MAY STAY GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST
FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



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000
FXUS65 KGJT 071030
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
COMING WEEK UNDER A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS TODAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
REGION. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE EXTENT
AND DENSITY OF LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES DUE TO VALLEY INVERSIONS
ALSO POSE A CHALLENGE SINCE GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES TOO WARM IN THESE AREAS. IN BOTH CASES WILL LEAN
TOWARD PERSISTENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER CONDITIONS IN STAGNANT VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN AREAS
ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL WARM IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WHILE VALLEYS...FOR REASONS JUST DISCUSSED...WILL LAG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COMING WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INVERTED VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE
SLOWER TO RESPOND TO THE WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE WEAKENS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A PAIR OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS
ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH
MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY
INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING IT/S
LIKELY THAT KCNY WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBY IN FOG AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH 15Z. CHANCES FOR SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR KGJT...KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
MEANWHILE...ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK
MOUNTAINS MAY OBSCURE PEAKS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z/MON. STRATUS AND
FOG MAY IMPACT EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KPUB 070520
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH IR IMAGERY
INDICATING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS DISTURBANCE WL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THE HIGH CLOUDS WL DECREASE.  THE WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A DISTURBANCE WL MOVE THRU NE AND INTO KS AND WL PUSH SOME
COOLER AIR INTO ERN CO.  THIS WL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BEING COOLER
THAN TODAY OVER THE PLAINS.  THE HIGH VALLEYS HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY ON SUNDAY ACRS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE KS BORDER SHOULD HAVE
SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...WARM AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD...

OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE W COAST WILL KEEP US IN A DRY AND WARMING
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SIX TO TEN DAYS. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE SUN INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A MERIDIONAL JET REMAINS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...BUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST WE WILL PROBABLY BE
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL
PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. COULD SEE HIGHS NR 70 DEGREES THAT DAY OVER THE PLAINS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY WX WILL HOLD OFF TIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS TO BE OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRONG
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY STEADY FOR NOW...AND IT PROMISES
TO BE A VERY DULL WEEK FOR WX FORECASTERS AND SNOW ENTHUSIASTS.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A MINOR WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.
WILL SEE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PASSING WAVE SENDING A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...OWNING TO WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AT COS AND PUB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 070452
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
952 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...WILL
NOTICE ANY EFFECTS OF THIS ENERGY...WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
OFFERING A GLANCING BLOW OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK MINOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FAST NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THIS SAME REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AND SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
FORECASTING HOW FAR BELOW GUIDANCE THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE GRAND AND GUNNISON VALLEYS...UINTAH BASIN
AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU ARE STRUGGLING...AND WELL BELOW THE MODELED
MAX TEMP. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH NIGHT AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT
LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY QUIET WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING A DRY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...DECREASING THE AMPLITUDE
A BIT BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OVER THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE ONLY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES. WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS...THE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN. SO UNDERCUT VALLEY TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND DAY TO
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

CIGS AND VIS ALREADY STARTING TO DROP AT KCNY SO EXPECT THEY`LL
STAY DOWN MOST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER AREAS TO LIKELY SEE FOG INCLUDE
KEGE...KGJT...AND KASE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MODERATE TEMPS AND
PUT A PAUSE ON FOG FORMATION BUT WITH KCNY ALREADY DROPPING...FEEL
IT PRUDENT TO PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF LOW LYING
VALLEYS WHICH WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 070452
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
952 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...WILL
NOTICE ANY EFFECTS OF THIS ENERGY...WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
OFFERING A GLANCING BLOW OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK MINOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FAST NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THIS SAME REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AND SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
FORECASTING HOW FAR BELOW GUIDANCE THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE GRAND AND GUNNISON VALLEYS...UINTAH BASIN
AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU ARE STRUGGLING...AND WELL BELOW THE MODELED
MAX TEMP. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH NIGHT AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT
LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY QUIET WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING A DRY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...DECREASING THE AMPLITUDE
A BIT BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OVER THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE ONLY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES. WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS...THE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN. SO UNDERCUT VALLEY TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND DAY TO
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

CIGS AND VIS ALREADY STARTING TO DROP AT KCNY SO EXPECT THEY`LL
STAY DOWN MOST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER AREAS TO LIKELY SEE FOG INCLUDE
KEGE...KGJT...AND KASE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MODERATE TEMPS AND
PUT A PAUSE ON FOG FORMATION BUT WITH KCNY ALREADY DROPPING...FEEL
IT PRUDENT TO PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF LOW LYING
VALLEYS WHICH WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 070452
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
952 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...WILL
NOTICE ANY EFFECTS OF THIS ENERGY...WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
OFFERING A GLANCING BLOW OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK MINOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FAST NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THIS SAME REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AND SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
FORECASTING HOW FAR BELOW GUIDANCE THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE GRAND AND GUNNISON VALLEYS...UINTAH BASIN
AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU ARE STRUGGLING...AND WELL BELOW THE MODELED
MAX TEMP. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH NIGHT AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT
LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY QUIET WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING A DRY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...DECREASING THE AMPLITUDE
A BIT BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OVER THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE ONLY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES. WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS...THE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN. SO UNDERCUT VALLEY TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND DAY TO
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

CIGS AND VIS ALREADY STARTING TO DROP AT KCNY SO EXPECT THEY`LL
STAY DOWN MOST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER AREAS TO LIKELY SEE FOG INCLUDE
KEGE...KGJT...AND KASE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MODERATE TEMPS AND
PUT A PAUSE ON FOG FORMATION BUT WITH KCNY ALREADY DROPPING...FEEL
IT PRUDENT TO PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF LOW LYING
VALLEYS WHICH WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KPUB 070147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
647 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH IR IMAGERY
INDICATING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS DISTURBANCE WL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THE HIGH CLOUDS WL DECREASE.  THE WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A DISTURBANCE WL MOVE THRU NE AND INTO KS AND WL PUSH SOME
COOLER AIR INTO ERN CO.  THIS WL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BEING COOLER
THAN TODAY OVER THE PLAINS.  THE HIGH VALLEYS HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY ON SUNDAY ACRS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE KS BORDER SHOULD HAVE
SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...WARM AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD...

OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE W COAST WILL KEEP US IN A DRY AND WARMING
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SIX TO TEN DAYS. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE SUN INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A MERIDIONAL JET REMAINS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...BUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST WE WILL PROBABLY BE
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL
PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. COULD SEE HIGHS NR 70 DEGREES THAT DAY OVER THE PLAINS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY WX WILL HOLD OFF TIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS TO BE OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRONG
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY STEADY FOR NOW...AND IT PROMISES
TO BE A VERY DULL WEEK FOR WX FORECASTERS AND SNOW ENTHUSIASTS.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AT TIMES.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 070147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
647 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH IR IMAGERY
INDICATING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS DISTURBANCE WL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THE HIGH CLOUDS WL DECREASE.  THE WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A DISTURBANCE WL MOVE THRU NE AND INTO KS AND WL PUSH SOME
COOLER AIR INTO ERN CO.  THIS WL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BEING COOLER
THAN TODAY OVER THE PLAINS.  THE HIGH VALLEYS HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY ON SUNDAY ACRS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE KS BORDER SHOULD HAVE
SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...WARM AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD...

OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE W COAST WILL KEEP US IN A DRY AND WARMING
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SIX TO TEN DAYS. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE SUN INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A MERIDIONAL JET REMAINS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...BUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST WE WILL PROBABLY BE
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL
PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. COULD SEE HIGHS NR 70 DEGREES THAT DAY OVER THE PLAINS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY WX WILL HOLD OFF TIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS TO BE OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRONG
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY STEADY FOR NOW...AND IT PROMISES
TO BE A VERY DULL WEEK FOR WX FORECASTERS AND SNOW ENTHUSIASTS.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AT TIMES.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 070147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
647 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH IR IMAGERY
INDICATING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS DISTURBANCE WL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THE HIGH CLOUDS WL DECREASE.  THE WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A DISTURBANCE WL MOVE THRU NE AND INTO KS AND WL PUSH SOME
COOLER AIR INTO ERN CO.  THIS WL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BEING COOLER
THAN TODAY OVER THE PLAINS.  THE HIGH VALLEYS HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY ON SUNDAY ACRS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE KS BORDER SHOULD HAVE
SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...WARM AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD...

OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE W COAST WILL KEEP US IN A DRY AND WARMING
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SIX TO TEN DAYS. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE SUN INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A MERIDIONAL JET REMAINS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...BUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST WE WILL PROBABLY BE
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL
PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. COULD SEE HIGHS NR 70 DEGREES THAT DAY OVER THE PLAINS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY WX WILL HOLD OFF TIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS TO BE OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRONG
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY STEADY FOR NOW...AND IT PROMISES
TO BE A VERY DULL WEEK FOR WX FORECASTERS AND SNOW ENTHUSIASTS.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AT TIMES.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KBOU 070144
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
644 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

SHORTWAVE PASSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING THE CLOUD
COVER A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE THINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR ALL THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THE RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS
ARE SHOWING A FEW AREAS ON THE DIVIDE HAVING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
RIGHT NOW. THERE IS SOME FAIRLY STRONG WIND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FORM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD. SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH HAVE
BEEN NOTED. MODELS HAVE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A JET MAXIMUM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AT 00Z LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS LIKE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD OVERCOME
MOST OF THE NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS. ON SUNDAY...SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS...OVERNIGHT NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLIES. THERE IS SOME LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WELL.
FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT PROGGED FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD...WITH IS MOSTLY TO BE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS.
THERE IS LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS. WILL KEEP A TAD OF POPS GOING
OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ONLY. FOR HIGH WINDS...AS
YESTERDAY...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO HAVE A MOUNTAINS WAVE SET-UP
PROGGED...BUT IT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A 3-8 C COOL DOWN OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE MIDWEST TROUGH
MOVES EAST.  A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THEN A
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.  THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
PUSH ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...AND THE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OVERHEAD NEXT SATURDAY.

THIS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BUT HOW FAST? THERE IS STILL QUITE
A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE CWA AND THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER
ON THE WARMING. I COOLED THE FORECAST A BIT BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY FELT THAT
WOULD BE THE DAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60. I WENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH STILL MORE SNOW TO
MELT...REACHING THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN THE METRO
AREA LOOKED PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
RIGHT ON INTO SATURDAY. SOME COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KBJC. THE WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA SHOULD
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BACK IN FROM THE EAST...BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS IN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 070144
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
644 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

SHORTWAVE PASSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING THE CLOUD
COVER A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE THINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR ALL THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THE RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS
ARE SHOWING A FEW AREAS ON THE DIVIDE HAVING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
RIGHT NOW. THERE IS SOME FAIRLY STRONG WIND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FORM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD. SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH HAVE
BEEN NOTED. MODELS HAVE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A JET MAXIMUM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AT 00Z LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS LIKE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD OVERCOME
MOST OF THE NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS. ON SUNDAY...SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS...OVERNIGHT NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLIES. THERE IS SOME LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WELL.
FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT PROGGED FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD...WITH IS MOSTLY TO BE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS.
THERE IS LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS. WILL KEEP A TAD OF POPS GOING
OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ONLY. FOR HIGH WINDS...AS
YESTERDAY...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO HAVE A MOUNTAINS WAVE SET-UP
PROGGED...BUT IT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A 3-8 C COOL DOWN OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE MIDWEST TROUGH
MOVES EAST.  A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THEN A
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.  THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
PUSH ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...AND THE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OVERHEAD NEXT SATURDAY.

THIS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BUT HOW FAST? THERE IS STILL QUITE
A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE CWA AND THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER
ON THE WARMING. I COOLED THE FORECAST A BIT BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY FELT THAT
WOULD BE THE DAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60. I WENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH STILL MORE SNOW TO
MELT...REACHING THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN THE METRO
AREA LOOKED PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
RIGHT ON INTO SATURDAY. SOME COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KBJC. THE WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA SHOULD
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BACK IN FROM THE EAST...BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS IN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 070014
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
514 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...WILL
NOTICE ANY EFFECTS OF THIS ENERGY...WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
OFFERING A GLANCING BLOW OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK MINOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FAST NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THIS SAME REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AND SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
FORECASTING HOW FAR BELOW GUIDANCE THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE GRAND AND GUNNISON VALLEYS...UINTAH BASIN
AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU ARE STRUGGLING...AND WELL BELOW THE MODELED
MAX TEMP. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH NIGHT AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT
LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY QUIET WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING A DRY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...DECREASING THE AMPLITUDE
A BIT BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OVER THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE ONLY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES. WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS...THE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN. SO UNDERCUT VALLEY TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND DAY TO
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER MORNING OF SOME PATCHY FOG OR
VICINITY FOG POSSIBLE FOR KCNY...KVEL...KASE AND KEGE AND NRN
VALLEYS. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF JUST YET TO SEE WHAT MODELS AND
OBS DO WITH BOUNARY LAYER AFTER SUN SETS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 070014
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
514 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...WILL
NOTICE ANY EFFECTS OF THIS ENERGY...WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
OFFERING A GLANCING BLOW OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK MINOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FAST NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THIS SAME REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AND SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
FORECASTING HOW FAR BELOW GUIDANCE THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE GRAND AND GUNNISON VALLEYS...UINTAH BASIN
AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU ARE STRUGGLING...AND WELL BELOW THE MODELED
MAX TEMP. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH NIGHT AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT
LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY QUIET WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING A DRY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...DECREASING THE AMPLITUDE
A BIT BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OVER THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE ONLY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES. WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS...THE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN. SO UNDERCUT VALLEY TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND DAY TO
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER MORNING OF SOME PATCHY FOG OR
VICINITY FOG POSSIBLE FOR KCNY...KVEL...KASE AND KEGE AND NRN
VALLEYS. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF JUST YET TO SEE WHAT MODELS AND
OBS DO WITH BOUNARY LAYER AFTER SUN SETS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 070014
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
514 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...WILL
NOTICE ANY EFFECTS OF THIS ENERGY...WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
OFFERING A GLANCING BLOW OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK MINOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FAST NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THIS SAME REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AND SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
FORECASTING HOW FAR BELOW GUIDANCE THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE GRAND AND GUNNISON VALLEYS...UINTAH BASIN
AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU ARE STRUGGLING...AND WELL BELOW THE MODELED
MAX TEMP. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH NIGHT AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT
LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY QUIET WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING A DRY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...DECREASING THE AMPLITUDE
A BIT BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OVER THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE ONLY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES. WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS...THE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN. SO UNDERCUT VALLEY TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND DAY TO
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER MORNING OF SOME PATCHY FOG OR
VICINITY FOG POSSIBLE FOR KCNY...KVEL...KASE AND KEGE AND NRN
VALLEYS. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF JUST YET TO SEE WHAT MODELS AND
OBS DO WITH BOUNARY LAYER AFTER SUN SETS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KBOU 062221
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR ALL THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THE RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS
ARE SHOWING A FEW AREAS ON THE DIVIDE HAVING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
RIGHT NOW. THERE IS SOME FAIRLY STRONG WIND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FORM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD. SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH HAVE
BEEN NOTED. MODELS HAVE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A JET MAXIMUM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AT 00Z LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS LIKE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD OVERCOME
MOST OF THE NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS. ON SUNDAY...SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS...OVERNIGHT NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLIES. THERE IS SOME LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WELL.
FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT PROGGED FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD...WITH IS MOSTLY TO BE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS.
THERE IS LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS. WILL KEEP A TAD OF POPS GOING
OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ONLY. FOR HIGH WINDS...AS
YESTERDAY...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO HAVE A MOUNTAINS WAVE SET-UP
PROGGED...BUT IT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A 3-8 C COOL DOWN OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE MIDWEST TROUGH
MOVES EAST.  A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THEN A
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.  THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
PUSH ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...AND THE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OVERHEAD NEXT SATURDAY.

THIS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BUT HOW FAST? THERE IS STILL QUITE
A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE CWA AND THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER
ON THE WARMING. I COOLED THE FORECAST A BIT BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY FELT THAT
WOULD BE THE DAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60. I WENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH STILL MORE SNOW TO
MELT...REACHING THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN THE METRO
AREA LOOKED PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
RIGHT ON INTO SATURDAY. SOME COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

DIA CAN EXPECT DRAINAGE WINDS COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME EASTERLIES MOVE INTO DIA BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A COOLER AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE NO
CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KPUB 062150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS DISTURBANCE WL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THE HIGH CLOUDS WL DECREASE.  THE WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A DISTURBANCE WL MOVE THRU NE AND INTO KS AND WL PUSH SOME
COOLER AIR INTO ERN CO.  THIS WL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BEING COOLER
THAN TODAY OVER THE PLAINS.  THE HIGH VALLEYS HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY ON SUNDAY ACRS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE KS BORDER SHOULD HAVE
SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...WARM AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD...

OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE W COAST WILL KEEP US IN A DRY AND WARMING
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SIX TO TEN DAYS. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE SUN INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A MERIDIONAL JET REMAINS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...BUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST WE WILL PROBABLY BE
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL
PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. COULD SEE HIGHS NR 70 DEGREES THAT DAY OVER THE PLAINS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY WX WILL HOLD OFF TIL NEXT WEEKEND...WHEN A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS TO BE OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRONG
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY STEADY FOR NOW...AND IT PROMISES
TO BE A VERY DULL WEEK FOR WX FORECASTERS AND SNOW ENTHUSIASTS.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KGJT 062108
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...WILL
NOTICE ANY EFFECTS OF THIS ENERGY...WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
OFFERING A GLANCING BLOW OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK MINOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FAST NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THIS SAME REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AND SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
FORECASTING HOW FAR BELOW GUIDANCE THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE GRAND AND GUNNISON VALLEYS...UINTAH BASIN
AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU ARE STRUGGLING...AND WELL BELOW THE MODELED
MAX TEMP. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH NIGHT AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT
LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY QUIET WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING A DRY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...DECREASING THE AMPLITUDE
A BIT BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OVER THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE ONLY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES. WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS...THE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN. SO UNDERCUT VALLEY TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND DAY TO
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE VALLEYS OF EAST
CENTRAL UTAH AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 20Z WITH
CLEAR CONDITIONS MOVING IN THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP OFTER 04Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY. KEGE...KASE...KVEL AND KCNY WILL ALL SEE SOME FOG
MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF THE AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NEAR THE STRATUS...EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 061837
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATED THE FIRE WX
GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...DRY AND WARMER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES ARE NOT
THAT FAR AWAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE 10 AND 11
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...AT THE PUEBLO AND SPRINGS AIRPORTS.
MEANWHILE...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR CANON CITY AND THE
SPANISH PEAKS AIRFIELD NEAR WALSENBURG BOTH HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 30
DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  ONCE THESE CHINOOK WINDS
WORK EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAKE AVERAGE OR
BETTER AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING LOCKED IN A SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION.  THERE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN
TODAY.  ALSO...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER...SUCH AS EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLUS OR MINUS.  AGAIN...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER AND
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD BE THE EXCEPTIONS...DROPPING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT IT COULD KICK UP THE WINDS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN AND
EVEN INTO MON...AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN STARTING TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 061837
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATED THE FIRE WX
GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...DRY AND WARMER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES ARE NOT
THAT FAR AWAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE 10 AND 11
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...AT THE PUEBLO AND SPRINGS AIRPORTS.
MEANWHILE...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR CANON CITY AND THE
SPANISH PEAKS AIRFIELD NEAR WALSENBURG BOTH HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 30
DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  ONCE THESE CHINOOK WINDS
WORK EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAKE AVERAGE OR
BETTER AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING LOCKED IN A SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION.  THERE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN
TODAY.  ALSO...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER...SUCH AS EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLUS OR MINUS.  AGAIN...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER AND
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD BE THE EXCEPTIONS...DROPPING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT IT COULD KICK UP THE WINDS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN AND
EVEN INTO MON...AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN STARTING TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 061837
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATED THE FIRE WX
GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...DRY AND WARMER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES ARE NOT
THAT FAR AWAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE 10 AND 11
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...AT THE PUEBLO AND SPRINGS AIRPORTS.
MEANWHILE...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR CANON CITY AND THE
SPANISH PEAKS AIRFIELD NEAR WALSENBURG BOTH HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 30
DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  ONCE THESE CHINOOK WINDS
WORK EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAKE AVERAGE OR
BETTER AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING LOCKED IN A SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION.  THERE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN
TODAY.  ALSO...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER...SUCH AS EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLUS OR MINUS.  AGAIN...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER AND
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD BE THE EXCEPTIONS...DROPPING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT IT COULD KICK UP THE WINDS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN AND
EVEN INTO MON...AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN STARTING TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KGJT 061824
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1124 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO CONTINUES TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT...LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 11 AM. STILL PICKING UP A GOOD BIT OF STRATUS ON
SATELLITE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL UTAH DOWN INTO CANYONLANDS. WEB CAMS
AND SFC OBS SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND EXPECT THIS DECK
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME EROSION IS
EVIDENT ALONG THE EDGES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

TEMPS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AT THIS HOUR COMPARED TO 24 HRS
AGO FOR THE GRAND VALLEY...NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND GUNNISON VALLEY.
THE INVERSION STILL LOOKS STRONG TODAY SO DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LIFTING BY 11 AM.
MODERATE MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN
MTNS TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 727 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ROLLING INTO THE OFFICE THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MESA COUNTY. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...BUT HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
VISIBILITY DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND GUNNISON RIVERS AND NEAR I-70 IN
THE VICINITY OF FRUITA. OTHER VALLEYS SEEING PATCHY FOG AS
WELL...BUT VISIBILITIES AND WEB CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES GREATER
THAN ONE MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH
ITS AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO THERE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE LESSEN SUNDAY AS THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ERODES.

THE ONLY OVER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UT AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GRAND VALLEY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE...
STRATUS...AND AREAS OF FOG IN PLACE THROUGH MIDMORNING. IT SHOULD
RETURN TONIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE COMING WEEK ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS A RESULT
...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT INVERTED
VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND TO WARMING TREND. THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A A PAIR OF
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE VALLEYS OF EAST
CENTRAL UTAH AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 20Z WITH
CLEAR CONDITIONS MOVING IN THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP OFTER 04Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY. KEGE...KASE...KVEL AND KCNY WILL ALL SEE SOME FOG
MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF THE AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NEAR THE STRATUS...EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 061731
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1031 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

TEMPS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AT THIS HOUR COMPARED TO 24 HRS
AGO FOR THE GRAND VALLEY...NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND GUNNISON VALLEY.
THE INVERSION STILL LOOKS STRONG TODAY SO DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LIFTING BY 11 AM.
MODERATE MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN
MTNS TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 727 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ROLLING INTO THE OFFICE THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MESA COUNTY. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...BUT HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
VISIBILITY DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND GUNNISON RIVERS AND NEAR I-70 IN
THE VICINITY OF FRUITA. OTHER VALLEYS SEEING PATCHY FOG AS
WELL...BUT VISIBILITIES AND WEB CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES GREATER
THAN ONE MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH
ITS AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO THERE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE LESSEN SUNDAY AS THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ERODES.

THE ONLY OVER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UT AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GRAND VALLEY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE...
STRATUS...AND AREAS OF FOG IN PLACE THROUGH MIDMORNING. IT SHOULD
RETURN TONIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE COMING WEEK ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS A RESULT
...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT INVERTED
VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND TO WARMING TREND. THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A A PAIR OF
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE VALLEYS OF EAST
CENTRAL UTAH AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 20Z WITH
CLEAR CONDITIONS MOVING IN THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP OFTER 04Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY. KEGE...KASE...KVEL AND KCNY WILL ALL SEE SOME FOG
MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF THE AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NEAR THE STRATUS...EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ006.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 061722
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1022 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...DRY AND WARMER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES ARE NOT
THAT FAR AWAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE 10 AND 11
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...AT THE PUEBLO AND SPRINGS AIRPORTS.
MEANWHILE...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR CANON CITY AND THE
SPANISH PEAKS AIRFIELD NEAR WALSENBURG BOTH HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 30
DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  ONCE THESE CHINOOK WINDS
WORK EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAKE AVERAGE OR
BETTER AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING LOCKED IN A SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION.  THERE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN
TODAY.  ALSO...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER...SUCH AS EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLUS OR MINUS.  AGAIN...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER AND
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD BE THE EXCEPTIONS...DROPPING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT IT COULD KICK UP THE WINDS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN AND
EVEN INTO MON...AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN STARTING TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 061722
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1022 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...DRY AND WARMER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES ARE NOT
THAT FAR AWAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE 10 AND 11
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...AT THE PUEBLO AND SPRINGS AIRPORTS.
MEANWHILE...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR CANON CITY AND THE
SPANISH PEAKS AIRFIELD NEAR WALSENBURG BOTH HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 30
DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  ONCE THESE CHINOOK WINDS
WORK EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAKE AVERAGE OR
BETTER AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING LOCKED IN A SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION.  THERE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN
TODAY.  ALSO...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER...SUCH AS EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLUS OR MINUS.  AGAIN...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER AND
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD BE THE EXCEPTIONS...DROPPING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT IT COULD KICK UP THE WINDS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN AND
EVEN INTO MON...AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN STARTING TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KBOU 061715
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1015 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING A DECENT BATCH OF MOSTLY UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE CWA AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW.
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACCORDING TOP THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUDINESS THEN EARLIER THOUGHT. THERE
IS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE THING WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL MAKE
A FEW GFE GRID ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...AND WINDS
THIS UPDATE. NOT MUCH TO NO POPS...EVEN IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY
TODAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH
THE REMAINING SNOW COVER...LIMITED THE WARMING EVEN THOUGH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES C OVER YESTERDAY.
PLAINS SHOULD STILL SEE READINGS IN THE 40S IF NOT 50S NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A SMALL AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING ISOLATED AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE TO NOW ACCUMULATION.

THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH A
130 KT JET DROPPING ON THE BACKSIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS JET WILL PUSH OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT INCREASING
WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH GUSTS OF 65 TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE DECREASING...WITH AGAIN LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE WINDS. READINGS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE
ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW RATHER MINIMAL MOISTURE HOWEVER THERE STILL
COULD BE A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MTNS.  WINDS WILL BE
STG AT TIMES AS COMPONENT ALONG SPEEDS ARE IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE SUN
MORNING.  APPEARS LACK OF MTN WAVE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER
AREA.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FM LATE
MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 OVER NERN CO.

ON MON NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE FLOW SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST.  WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STG AS
SUNDAY. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 5 TO 6 DEGREES C ON
MON HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW COVER MAY KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S IN MOST PLACES OVER NERN CO EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

BY TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE NWLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WNW ON
WED.  ONCE AGAIN OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
AREA IT LOOKS DRY BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 4-5
DEGREES C ON TUE AND THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON WED.  LINGERING SNOW
COVER OVER THE PLAINS WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS BUT
WILL RAISE THEM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY WED WITH NEAR 60
POSSIBLE AROUND DENVER.

FOR THU AND FRI WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY
SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS.  THUS OUTSIDE OF SOME
CLOUDS IT WILL BE DRY BOTH DAYS.  A WEAK COOL FNT MAY AFFECT NERN CO
ON THU WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

DECENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW AT DIA
THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING
ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 061715
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1015 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING A DECENT BATCH OF MOSTLY UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE CWA AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW.
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACCORDING TOP THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUDINESS THEN EARLIER THOUGHT. THERE
IS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE THING WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL MAKE
A FEW GFE GRID ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...AND WINDS
THIS UPDATE. NOT MUCH TO NO POPS...EVEN IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY
TODAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH
THE REMAINING SNOW COVER...LIMITED THE WARMING EVEN THOUGH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES C OVER YESTERDAY.
PLAINS SHOULD STILL SEE READINGS IN THE 40S IF NOT 50S NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A SMALL AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING ISOLATED AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE TO NOW ACCUMULATION.

THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH A
130 KT JET DROPPING ON THE BACKSIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS JET WILL PUSH OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT INCREASING
WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH GUSTS OF 65 TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE DECREASING...WITH AGAIN LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE WINDS. READINGS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE
ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW RATHER MINIMAL MOISTURE HOWEVER THERE STILL
COULD BE A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MTNS.  WINDS WILL BE
STG AT TIMES AS COMPONENT ALONG SPEEDS ARE IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE SUN
MORNING.  APPEARS LACK OF MTN WAVE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER
AREA.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FM LATE
MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 OVER NERN CO.

ON MON NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE FLOW SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST.  WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STG AS
SUNDAY. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 5 TO 6 DEGREES C ON
MON HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW COVER MAY KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S IN MOST PLACES OVER NERN CO EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

BY TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE NWLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WNW ON
WED.  ONCE AGAIN OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
AREA IT LOOKS DRY BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 4-5
DEGREES C ON TUE AND THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON WED.  LINGERING SNOW
COVER OVER THE PLAINS WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS BUT
WILL RAISE THEM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY WED WITH NEAR 60
POSSIBLE AROUND DENVER.

FOR THU AND FRI WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY
SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS.  THUS OUTSIDE OF SOME
CLOUDS IT WILL BE DRY BOTH DAYS.  A WEAK COOL FNT MAY AFFECT NERN CO
ON THU WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

DECENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW AT DIA
THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING
ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 061715
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1015 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING A DECENT BATCH OF MOSTLY UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE CWA AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW.
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACCORDING TOP THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUDINESS THEN EARLIER THOUGHT. THERE
IS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE THING WHICH
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL MAKE
A FEW GFE GRID ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...AND WINDS
THIS UPDATE. NOT MUCH TO NO POPS...EVEN IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY
TODAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH
THE REMAINING SNOW COVER...LIMITED THE WARMING EVEN THOUGH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES C OVER YESTERDAY.
PLAINS SHOULD STILL SEE READINGS IN THE 40S IF NOT 50S NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A SMALL AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING ISOLATED AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE TO NOW ACCUMULATION.

THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH A
130 KT JET DROPPING ON THE BACKSIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS JET WILL PUSH OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT INCREASING
WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH GUSTS OF 65 TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE DECREASING...WITH AGAIN LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE WINDS. READINGS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE
ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW RATHER MINIMAL MOISTURE HOWEVER THERE STILL
COULD BE A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MTNS.  WINDS WILL BE
STG AT TIMES AS COMPONENT ALONG SPEEDS ARE IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE SUN
MORNING.  APPEARS LACK OF MTN WAVE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER
AREA.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FM LATE
MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 OVER NERN CO.

ON MON NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE FLOW SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST.  WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STG AS
SUNDAY. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 5 TO 6 DEGREES C ON
MON HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW COVER MAY KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S IN MOST PLACES OVER NERN CO EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

BY TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE NWLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WNW ON
WED.  ONCE AGAIN OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
AREA IT LOOKS DRY BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 4-5
DEGREES C ON TUE AND THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON WED.  LINGERING SNOW
COVER OVER THE PLAINS WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS BUT
WILL RAISE THEM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY WED WITH NEAR 60
POSSIBLE AROUND DENVER.

FOR THU AND FRI WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY
SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS.  THUS OUTSIDE OF SOME
CLOUDS IT WILL BE DRY BOTH DAYS.  A WEAK COOL FNT MAY AFFECT NERN CO
ON THU WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

DECENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW AT DIA
THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING
ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 061644 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
944 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

TEMPS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AT THIS HOUR COMPARED TO 24 HRS
AGO FOR THE GRAND VALLEY...NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND GUNNISON VALLEY.
THE INVERSION STILL LOOKS STRONG TODAY SO DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LIFTING BY 11 AM.
MODERATE MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN
MTNS TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 727 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ROLLING INTO THE OFFICE THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MESA COUNTY. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...BUT HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
VISIBILITY DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND GUNNISON RIVERS AND NEAR I-70 IN
THE VICINITY OF FRUITA. OTHER VALLEYS SEEING PATCHY FOG AS
WELL...BUT VISIBILITIES AND WEB CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES GREATER
THAN ONE MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH
ITS AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO THERE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE LESSEN SUNDAY AS THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ERODES.

THE ONLY OVER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UT AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GRAND VALLEY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE...
STRATUS...AND AREAS OF FOG IN PLACE THROUGH MIDMORNING. IT SHOULD
RETURN TONIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE COMING WEEK ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS A RESULT
...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT INVERTED
VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND TO WARMING TREND. THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A A PAIR OF
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT MIST EXTENDING FROM EASTERN UTAH/S
GRAND FLAT AND CANYON COUNTRY REGION TO THE WESTERN GRAND VALLEY
TO PERSIST THROUGH 14Z. AS THE SUN COMES UP...EXPECT THE BLANKET
OF STRATUS WILL ERODE FROM THE EDGES AND WILL LIFT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIKE YESTERDAY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
CLOUD MASS WILL ENTIRELY DISSIPATE OVER KCNY THOUGH THIS MORNING/S
LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 18Z. SINCE STRONG INVERSIONS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...LOOK FOR THE CLOUD
FIELD TO EXPAND AFTER 00Z/SUN WITH COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THAT
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT WEATHER
RELATED IMPACTS AT REMAINING AIRPORTS WITHIN THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ006.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 061430
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
730 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ROLLING INTO THE OFFICE THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MESA COUNTY. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...BUT HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
VISIBILITY DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND GUNNISON RIVERS AND NEAR I-70 IN
THE VICINITY OF FRUITA. OTHER VALLEYS SEEING PATCHY FOG AS
WELL...BUT VISIBILITIES AND WEB CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES GREATER
THAN ONE MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH
ITS AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO THERE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE LESSEN SUNDAY AS THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ERODES.

THE ONLY OVER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UT AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GRAND VALLEY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE...
STRATUS...AND AREAS OF FOG IN PLACE THROUGH MIDMORNING. IT SHOULD
RETURN TONIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE COMING WEEK ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS A RESULT
...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT INVERTED
VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND TO WARMING TREND. THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A A PAIR OF
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT MIST EXTENDING FROM EASTERN UTAH/S
GRAND FLAT AND CANYON COUNTRY REGION TO THE WESTERN GRAND VALLEY
TO PERSIST THROUGH 14Z. AS THE SUN COMES UP...EXPECT THE BLANKET
OF STRATUS WILL ERODE FROM THE EDGES AND WILL LIFT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIKE YESTERDAY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
CLOUD MASS WILL ENTIRELY DISSIPATE OVER KCNY THOUGH THIS MORNING/S
LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 18Z. SINCE STRONG INVERSIONS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...LOOK FOR THE CLOUD
FIELD TO EXPAND AFTER 00Z/SUN WITH COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THAT
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT WEATHER
RELATED IMPACTS AT REMAINING AIRPORTS WITHIN THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ006.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 061054
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH
ITS AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO THERE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE LESSEN SUNDAY AS THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ERODES.

THE ONLY OVER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UT AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GRAND VALLEY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE...
STRATUS...AND AREAS OF FOG IN PLACE THROUGH MIDMORNING. IT SHOULD
RETURN TONIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE COMING WEEK ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS A RESULT
...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT INVERTED
VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND TO WARMING TREND. THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A A PAIR OF
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT MIST EXTENDING FROM EASTERN UTAH/S
GRAND FLAT AND CANYON COUNTRY REGION TO THE WESTERN GRAND VALLEY
TO PERSIST THROUGH 14Z. AS THE SUN COMES UP...EXPECT THE BLANKET
OF STRATUS WILL ERODE FROM THE EDGES AND WILL LIFT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIKE YESTERDAY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
CLOUD MASS WILL ENTIRELY DISSIPATE OVER KCNY THOUGH THIS MORNING/S
LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 18Z. SINCE STRONG INVERSIONS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...LOOK FOR THE CLOUD
FIELD TO EXPAND AFTER 00Z/SUN WITH COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THAT
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT WEATHER
RELATED IMPACTS AT REMAINING AIRPORTS WITHIN THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 061054
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH
ITS AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO THERE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE LESSEN SUNDAY AS THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ERODES.

THE ONLY OVER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UT AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GRAND VALLEY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE...
STRATUS...AND AREAS OF FOG IN PLACE THROUGH MIDMORNING. IT SHOULD
RETURN TONIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE COMING WEEK ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS A RESULT
...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT INVERTED
VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND TO WARMING TREND. THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A A PAIR OF
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT MIST EXTENDING FROM EASTERN UTAH/S
GRAND FLAT AND CANYON COUNTRY REGION TO THE WESTERN GRAND VALLEY
TO PERSIST THROUGH 14Z. AS THE SUN COMES UP...EXPECT THE BLANKET
OF STRATUS WILL ERODE FROM THE EDGES AND WILL LIFT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIKE YESTERDAY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
CLOUD MASS WILL ENTIRELY DISSIPATE OVER KCNY THOUGH THIS MORNING/S
LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 18Z. SINCE STRONG INVERSIONS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...LOOK FOR THE CLOUD
FIELD TO EXPAND AFTER 00Z/SUN WITH COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THAT
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT WEATHER
RELATED IMPACTS AT REMAINING AIRPORTS WITHIN THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 061054
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH
ITS AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO THERE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE LESSEN SUNDAY AS THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ERODES.

THE ONLY OVER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UT AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GRAND VALLEY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE...
STRATUS...AND AREAS OF FOG IN PLACE THROUGH MIDMORNING. IT SHOULD
RETURN TONIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE COMING WEEK ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS A RESULT
...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT INVERTED
VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND TO WARMING TREND. THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A A PAIR OF
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT MIST EXTENDING FROM EASTERN UTAH/S
GRAND FLAT AND CANYON COUNTRY REGION TO THE WESTERN GRAND VALLEY
TO PERSIST THROUGH 14Z. AS THE SUN COMES UP...EXPECT THE BLANKET
OF STRATUS WILL ERODE FROM THE EDGES AND WILL LIFT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIKE YESTERDAY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
CLOUD MASS WILL ENTIRELY DISSIPATE OVER KCNY THOUGH THIS MORNING/S
LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 18Z. SINCE STRONG INVERSIONS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...LOOK FOR THE CLOUD
FIELD TO EXPAND AFTER 00Z/SUN WITH COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THAT
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT WEATHER
RELATED IMPACTS AT REMAINING AIRPORTS WITHIN THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KPUB 061053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...DRY AND WARMER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES ARE NOT
THAT FAR AWAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE 10 AND 11
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...AT THE PUEBLO AND SPRINGS AIRPORTS.
MEANWHILE...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR CANON CITY AND THE
SPANISH PEAKS AIRFIELD NEAR WALSENBURG BOTH HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 30
DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  ONCE THESE CHINOOK WINDS
WORK EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAKE AVERAGE OR
BETTER AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING LOCKED IN A SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION.  THERE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN
TODAY.  ALSO...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER...SUCH AS EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLUS OR MINUS.  AGAIN...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER AND
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD BE THE EXCEPTIONS...DROPPING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT IT COULD KICK UP THE WINDS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN AND
EVEN INTO MON...AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN STARTING TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TERMINAL SITES.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA BUT IT MAY INCREASE WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 061053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...DRY AND WARMER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES ARE NOT
THAT FAR AWAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE 10 AND 11
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...AT THE PUEBLO AND SPRINGS AIRPORTS.
MEANWHILE...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR CANON CITY AND THE
SPANISH PEAKS AIRFIELD NEAR WALSENBURG BOTH HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 30
DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  ONCE THESE CHINOOK WINDS
WORK EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAKE AVERAGE OR
BETTER AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING LOCKED IN A SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION.  THERE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN
TODAY.  ALSO...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER...SUCH AS EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLUS OR MINUS.  AGAIN...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER AND
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD BE THE EXCEPTIONS...DROPPING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT IT COULD KICK UP THE WINDS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN AND
EVEN INTO MON...AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN STARTING TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TERMINAL SITES.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA BUT IT MAY INCREASE WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 061053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...DRY AND WARMER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES ARE NOT
THAT FAR AWAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE 10 AND 11
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...AT THE PUEBLO AND SPRINGS AIRPORTS.
MEANWHILE...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR CANON CITY AND THE
SPANISH PEAKS AIRFIELD NEAR WALSENBURG BOTH HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 30
DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  ONCE THESE CHINOOK WINDS
WORK EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAKE AVERAGE OR
BETTER AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING LOCKED IN A SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION.  THERE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN
TODAY.  ALSO...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER...SUCH AS EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLUS OR MINUS.  AGAIN...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER AND
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD BE THE EXCEPTIONS...DROPPING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT IT COULD KICK UP THE WINDS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN AND
EVEN INTO MON...AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN STARTING TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TERMINAL SITES.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA BUT IT MAY INCREASE WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 061053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...DRY AND WARMER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES ARE NOT
THAT FAR AWAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE 10 AND 11
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...AT THE PUEBLO AND SPRINGS AIRPORTS.
MEANWHILE...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR CANON CITY AND THE
SPANISH PEAKS AIRFIELD NEAR WALSENBURG BOTH HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 30
DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  ONCE THESE CHINOOK WINDS
WORK EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAKE AVERAGE OR
BETTER AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING LOCKED IN A SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION.  THERE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN
TODAY.  ALSO...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER...SUCH AS EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLUS OR MINUS.  AGAIN...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER AND
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD BE THE EXCEPTIONS...DROPPING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT IT COULD KICK UP THE WINDS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN AND
EVEN INTO MON...AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN STARTING TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TERMINAL SITES.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA BUT IT MAY INCREASE WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 061053
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

...DRY AND WARMER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WARMING CHINOOK BREEZES ARE NOT
THAT FAR AWAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE 10 AND 11
DEGREES...RESPECTIVELY...AT THE PUEBLO AND SPRINGS AIRPORTS.
MEANWHILE...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT NEAR CANON CITY AND THE
SPANISH PEAKS AIRFIELD NEAR WALSENBURG BOTH HAVE TEMPERATURES OF 30
DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  ONCE THESE CHINOOK WINDS
WORK EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MAKE AVERAGE OR
BETTER AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING LOCKED IN A SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION.  THERE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN
TODAY.  ALSO...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER...SUCH AS EL PASO
COUNTY...MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

TONIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLUS OR MINUS.  AGAIN...THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER AND
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD BE THE EXCEPTIONS...DROPPING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT IT COULD KICK UP THE WINDS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN AND
EVEN INTO MON...AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURN STARTING TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
AREA...INCLUDING THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TERMINAL SITES.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA BUT IT MAY INCREASE WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KBOU 060915
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY
TODAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH
THE REMAINING SNOW COVER...LIMITED THE WARMING EVEN THOUGH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES C OVER YESTERDAY.
PLAINS SHOULD STILL SEE READINGS IN THE 40S IF NOT 50S NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A SMALL AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING ISOLATED AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE TO NOW ACCUMULATION.

THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH A
130 KT JET DROPPING ON THE BACKSIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS JET WILL PUSH OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT INCREASING
WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH GUSTS OF 65 TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE DECREASING...WITH AGAIN LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE WINDS. READINGS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE
ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW RATHER MINIMAL MOISTURE HOWEVER THERE STILL
COULD BE A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MTNS.  WINDS WILL BE
STG AT TIMES AS COMPONENT ALONG SPEEDS ARE IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE SUN
MORNING.  APPEARS LACK OF MTN WAVE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER
AREA.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FM LATE
MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 OVER NERN CO.

ON MON NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE FLOW SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST.  WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STG AS
SUNDAY. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 5 TO 6 DEGREES C ON
MON HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW COVER MAY KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S IN MOST PLACES OVER NERN CO EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

BY TUE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE NWLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WNW ON
WED.  ONCE AGAIN OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
AREA IT LOOKS DRY BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 4-5
DEGREES C ON TUE AND THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON WED.  LINGERING SNOW
COVER OVER THE PLAINS WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS BUT
WILL RAISE THEM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY WED WITH NEAR 60
POSSIBLE AROUND DENVER.

FOR THU AND FRI WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY
SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS.  THUS OUTSIDE OF SOME
CLOUDS IT WILL BE DRY BOTH DAYS.  A WEAK COOL FNT MAY AFFECT NERN CO
ON THU WITH HIGHS SLIGHLY LOWER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO S/SW. EXPECT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KTS AT KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 060519
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1019 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...WARMING UP SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER SERN
CO AS LAST NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FOR THE COLD SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS...AND NEGATIVE READINGS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE BIG RIDGE
OVER THE W COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT TOMORROW...WITH
H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NR OR ABOVE ZERO DEG C BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PLEASANT SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR
THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EL PASO COUNTY WILL
REMAIN COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK.
ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SAT NIGHT AND SUN NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND NE WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN
CO ON SUNDAY.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY THRU THIS PERIOD BUT THE FRONT
WL BRING COOLER TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE SERN CO PLAINS ON SUN.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH VALLEYS WL LIKELY SEE TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ON SAT.

FOR MONDAY THRU THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH CO BEING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  IT WL BE DRY THRU THE WEEK WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS WL BE AROUND AVERAGE ON MON...BUT WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGJT 060500
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1000 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUPPORT A LOW
STRATUS DECK HOLDING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MODEL. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN UINTA BASIN...EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
HOLDS...STRATUS DECKS SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BACK THROUGH UNDER THE NORTHWEST COMPONENT. STILL EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK RIPPLES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND AND JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
IDEA AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. KVEL AND KCNY HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
KGJT...KEGE...AND KASE WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BRIEF DROPS IN
CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 16Z AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD. MET GUIDANCE ALREADY SUGGESTING FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
00Z AT KVEL...KCNY AND KGJT SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 060500
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1000 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUPPORT A LOW
STRATUS DECK HOLDING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MODEL. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN UINTA BASIN...EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
HOLDS...STRATUS DECKS SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BACK THROUGH UNDER THE NORTHWEST COMPONENT. STILL EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK RIPPLES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND AND JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
IDEA AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. KVEL AND KCNY HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
KGJT...KEGE...AND KASE WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BRIEF DROPS IN
CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 16Z AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD. MET GUIDANCE ALREADY SUGGESTING FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
00Z AT KVEL...KCNY AND KGJT SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 060500
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1000 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUPPORT A LOW
STRATUS DECK HOLDING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MODEL. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN UINTA BASIN...EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
HOLDS...STRATUS DECKS SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BACK THROUGH UNDER THE NORTHWEST COMPONENT. STILL EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK RIPPLES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND AND JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
IDEA AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. KVEL AND KCNY HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
KGJT...KEGE...AND KASE WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BRIEF DROPS IN
CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 16Z AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD. MET GUIDANCE ALREADY SUGGESTING FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
00Z AT KVEL...KCNY AND KGJT SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KBOU 060311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
811 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT BECOMES
NEAR ZONAL BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 60 KNOTS.
THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS QUITE
LIMITED TO JUST SOME...MOSTLY...IN THE UPPER LEVEL...MORE SO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NOTHING FOR THE CWA THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS. NO POPS. CROSS SECTION DO SHOW A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP TONIGHT. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY REACH
SPEED CRITERIA IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES
...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A 90+ JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW SHOULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES...WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S IN DENVER ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROBABLY NOT GET THAT WARM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT KDEN AND KAPA. ONCL GUSTY WLY WINDS TO 20
KTS PSBL AT KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 060311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
811 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT BECOMES
NEAR ZONAL BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 60 KNOTS.
THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS QUITE
LIMITED TO JUST SOME...MOSTLY...IN THE UPPER LEVEL...MORE SO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NOTHING FOR THE CWA THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS. NO POPS. CROSS SECTION DO SHOW A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP TONIGHT. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY REACH
SPEED CRITERIA IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES
...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A 90+ JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW SHOULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES...WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S IN DENVER ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROBABLY NOT GET THAT WARM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT KDEN AND KAPA. ONCL GUSTY WLY WINDS TO 20
KTS PSBL AT KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 060311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
811 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT BECOMES
NEAR ZONAL BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 60 KNOTS.
THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS QUITE
LIMITED TO JUST SOME...MOSTLY...IN THE UPPER LEVEL...MORE SO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NOTHING FOR THE CWA THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS. NO POPS. CROSS SECTION DO SHOW A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP TONIGHT. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY REACH
SPEED CRITERIA IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES
...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A 90+ JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW SHOULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES...WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S IN DENVER ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROBABLY NOT GET THAT WARM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT KDEN AND KAPA. ONCL GUSTY WLY WINDS TO 20
KTS PSBL AT KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 060311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
811 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT BECOMES
NEAR ZONAL BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 60 KNOTS.
THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS QUITE
LIMITED TO JUST SOME...MOSTLY...IN THE UPPER LEVEL...MORE SO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NOTHING FOR THE CWA THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS. NO POPS. CROSS SECTION DO SHOW A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP TONIGHT. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY REACH
SPEED CRITERIA IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES
...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A 90+ JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW SHOULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES...WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S IN DENVER ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROBABLY NOT GET THAT WARM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT KDEN AND KAPA. ONCL GUSTY WLY WINDS TO 20
KTS PSBL AT KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 060311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
811 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT BECOMES
NEAR ZONAL BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 60 KNOTS.
THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS QUITE
LIMITED TO JUST SOME...MOSTLY...IN THE UPPER LEVEL...MORE SO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NOTHING FOR THE CWA THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS. NO POPS. CROSS SECTION DO SHOW A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP TONIGHT. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY REACH
SPEED CRITERIA IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES
...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A 90+ JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW SHOULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES...WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S IN DENVER ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROBABLY NOT GET THAT WARM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT KDEN AND KAPA. ONCL GUSTY WLY WINDS TO 20
KTS PSBL AT KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 052222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUPPORT A LOW
STRATUS DECK HOLDING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MODEL. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN UINTA BASIN...EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
HOLDS...STRATUS DECKS SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BACK THROUGH UNDER THE NORTHWEST COMPONENT. STILL EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK RIPPLES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND AND JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
IDEA AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
TERMINAL SITES THAT MAY BE IMPACTED BY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS INCLUDE
WITH AROUND A 50 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD INCLUDE KVEL...KCNY AND
KEGE...WITH BRIEF DROPS IN CIGS EXPECTED AT KGJT AND KASE LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS VFR CONDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 052222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUPPORT A LOW
STRATUS DECK HOLDING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MODEL. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN UINTA BASIN...EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
HOLDS...STRATUS DECKS SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BACK THROUGH UNDER THE NORTHWEST COMPONENT. STILL EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK RIPPLES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND AND JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
IDEA AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
TERMINAL SITES THAT MAY BE IMPACTED BY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS INCLUDE
WITH AROUND A 50 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD INCLUDE KVEL...KCNY AND
KEGE...WITH BRIEF DROPS IN CIGS EXPECTED AT KGJT AND KASE LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS VFR CONDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 052222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUPPORT A LOW
STRATUS DECK HOLDING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MODEL. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN UINTA BASIN...EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
HOLDS...STRATUS DECKS SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BACK THROUGH UNDER THE NORTHWEST COMPONENT. STILL EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK RIPPLES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND AND JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
IDEA AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
TERMINAL SITES THAT MAY BE IMPACTED BY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS INCLUDE
WITH AROUND A 50 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD INCLUDE KVEL...KCNY AND
KEGE...WITH BRIEF DROPS IN CIGS EXPECTED AT KGJT AND KASE LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS VFR CONDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 052222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUPPORT A LOW
STRATUS DECK HOLDING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MODEL. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN UINTA BASIN...EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
HOLDS...STRATUS DECKS SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BACK THROUGH UNDER THE NORTHWEST COMPONENT. STILL EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK RIPPLES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND AND JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
IDEA AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
TERMINAL SITES THAT MAY BE IMPACTED BY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS INCLUDE
WITH AROUND A 50 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD INCLUDE KVEL...KCNY AND
KEGE...WITH BRIEF DROPS IN CIGS EXPECTED AT KGJT AND KASE LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS VFR CONDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 052222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUPPORT A LOW
STRATUS DECK HOLDING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MODEL. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN UINTA BASIN...EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
HOLDS...STRATUS DECKS SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BACK THROUGH UNDER THE NORTHWEST COMPONENT. STILL EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK RIPPLES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND AND JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
IDEA AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
TERMINAL SITES THAT MAY BE IMPACTED BY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS INCLUDE
WITH AROUND A 50 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD INCLUDE KVEL...KCNY AND
KEGE...WITH BRIEF DROPS IN CIGS EXPECTED AT KGJT AND KASE LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS VFR CONDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KBOU 052221
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT BECOMES
NEAR ZONAL BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 60 KNOTS.
THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS QUITE
LIMITED TO JUST SOME...MOSTLY...IN THE UPPER LEVEL...MORE SO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NOTHING FOR THE CWA THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS. NO POPS. CROSS SECTION DO SHOW A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP TONIGHT. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY REACH
SPEED CRITERIA IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES
...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A 90+ JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW SHOULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES...WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S IN DENVER ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROBABLY NOT GET THAT WARM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD KICK IN AT DIA BY 02Z THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE NO
CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 052221
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT BECOMES
NEAR ZONAL BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 60 KNOTS.
THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS QUITE
LIMITED TO JUST SOME...MOSTLY...IN THE UPPER LEVEL...MORE SO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NOTHING FOR THE CWA THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS. NO POPS. CROSS SECTION DO SHOW A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP TONIGHT. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY REACH
SPEED CRITERIA IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES
...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A 90+ JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW SHOULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES...WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S IN DENVER ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROBABLY NOT GET THAT WARM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD KICK IN AT DIA BY 02Z THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE NO
CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 052221
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT BECOMES
NEAR ZONAL BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 60 KNOTS.
THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS QUITE
LIMITED TO JUST SOME...MOSTLY...IN THE UPPER LEVEL...MORE SO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NOTHING FOR THE CWA THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS. NO POPS. CROSS SECTION DO SHOW A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP TONIGHT. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY REACH
SPEED CRITERIA IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES
...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A 90+ JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW SHOULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES...WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S IN DENVER ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROBABLY NOT GET THAT WARM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD KICK IN AT DIA BY 02Z THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE NO
CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KPUB 052109
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
209 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...WARMING UP TOMORROW...

SHORT TERM LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER SERN
CO AS LAST NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FOR THE COLD SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS...AND NEGATIVE READINGS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE BIG RIDGE
OVER THE W COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT TOMORROW...WITH
H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NR OR ABOVE ZERO DEG C BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PLEASANT SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR
THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EL PASO COUNTY WILL
REMAIN COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK.
ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SAT NIGHT AND SUN NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND NE WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN
CO ON SUNDAY.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY THRU THIS PERIOD BUT THE FRONT
WL BRING COOLER TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE SERN CO PLAINS ON SUN.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH VALLEYS WL LIKELY SEE TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ON SAT.

FOR MONDAY THRU THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH CO BEING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  IT WL BE DRY THRU THE WEEK WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS WL BE AROUND AVERAGE ON MON...BUT WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS...RESIDUAL SNOW PACK...AND
WARMING ALOFT...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FG/BR EARLY
SAT. BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT EXPLICIT MENTION OF
FG IN THE TAFS ATTM. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 052109
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
209 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...WARMING UP TOMORROW...

SHORT TERM LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER SERN
CO AS LAST NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FOR THE COLD SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS...AND NEGATIVE READINGS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE BIG RIDGE
OVER THE W COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT TOMORROW...WITH
H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NR OR ABOVE ZERO DEG C BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PLEASANT SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR
THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EL PASO COUNTY WILL
REMAIN COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK.
ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SAT NIGHT AND SUN NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND NE WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN
CO ON SUNDAY.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY THRU THIS PERIOD BUT THE FRONT
WL BRING COOLER TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE SERN CO PLAINS ON SUN.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH VALLEYS WL LIKELY SEE TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ON SAT.

FOR MONDAY THRU THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH CO BEING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  IT WL BE DRY THRU THE WEEK WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS WL BE AROUND AVERAGE ON MON...BUT WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS...RESIDUAL SNOW PACK...AND
WARMING ALOFT...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FG/BR EARLY
SAT. BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT EXPLICIT MENTION OF
FG IN THE TAFS ATTM. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 052109
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
209 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...WARMING UP TOMORROW...

SHORT TERM LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER SERN
CO AS LAST NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FOR THE COLD SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS...AND NEGATIVE READINGS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE BIG RIDGE
OVER THE W COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT TOMORROW...WITH
H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NR OR ABOVE ZERO DEG C BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PLEASANT SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR
THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EL PASO COUNTY WILL
REMAIN COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK.
ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SAT NIGHT AND SUN NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND NE WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN
CO ON SUNDAY.  THE WEATHER WL BE DRY THRU THIS PERIOD BUT THE FRONT
WL BRING COOLER TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE SERN CO PLAINS ON SUN.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH VALLEYS WL LIKELY SEE TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ON SAT.

FOR MONDAY THRU THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE
OVER THE WRN STATES...WITH CO BEING ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  IT WL BE DRY THRU THE WEEK WITH
WARMER TEMPS.  HIGHS WL BE AROUND AVERAGE ON MON...BUT WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS...RESIDUAL SNOW PACK...AND
WARMING ALOFT...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FG/BR EARLY
SAT. BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PUT EXPLICIT MENTION OF
FG IN THE TAFS ATTM. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 051821
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1121 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION THIS
MORNING LEAVING A COLD -30C CORE OVERHEAD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
STILL INDICATE THE NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS GETTING
SWIPED BY A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY EVENING...SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST OVER THAT AREA FOR
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OVER THE
EASTERN UINTAS AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EXTEND OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL BE UNDER THE
NW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A HUGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP CONCURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
SAT NGT AND SUN VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A BIT OF MID AND
HI CLOUD TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CO BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
WITH THESE.

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES EAST AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE LIFTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE UINTAH BASIN.
OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME CONCERN WITH UINTAH BASIN AND FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT NOT SOLD ON IDEA SO DID BREAK
THEM OUT FROM 20Z ONWARDS. OUTSIDE OF THAT...EXPECT SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS WITH MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KBOU 051754
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1054 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASES AND MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...MORE SO RIGHT ON THE DIVIDE RIGHT NOW.
THEY ARE DECREASING. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS HAS FAIRLY
DECENT NORTHWESTERLIES WINDS BLOWING AT THIS TIME. WILL MAKE SOME
POP...WEATHER...AND CLOUD FIXES ON THE GFE GRIDS BASED ON REAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO GRADUALLY WORKING EAST INTO KANSAS THIS
MORNING. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO OF ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING OVER THESE AREAS AS DRY AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
WORKS INTO COLORADO. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BUT STILL SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE
BY LATER TNT IN NORMAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH OVER
THE STATE WITH A 115 KT JET DIGGING ON THE BACKSIDE. A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME
MIXING OF THE AIRMASS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON....EXPECT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A MAX OF 55-60KT
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW BETWEEN 00-06Z. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING
TO NEED ANY HIGH WIND WARNING AS THERE IS NO GOOD EFFECTIVE MEAN
STATE CRITICAL LAYER TO HELP ACCELERATE AND PUSH DOWN ANY HIGHER
WINDS. OVERALL...IT WILL BE WINDY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AIRMASS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING PATTERN. INCREASED TEMPERATURES JUST LEE OF ANY
MOUNTAIN RANGE...INCLUDING THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

EXPECT WINDIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS AS A
DISTURBANCE PUSHES OVERHEAD WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING. 50 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 830 MB OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...SO GUSTS COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. FOR NOW HAVE GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN STATE BORDER AND THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.
DEPENDING ON ANY REMAINING SNOW ON THE GROUND...AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A DRY AND WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE AT DIA...THEY SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE SHOULD BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION.....RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 051754
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1054 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASES AND MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...MORE SO RIGHT ON THE DIVIDE RIGHT NOW.
THEY ARE DECREASING. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS HAS FAIRLY
DECENT NORTHWESTERLIES WINDS BLOWING AT THIS TIME. WILL MAKE SOME
POP...WEATHER...AND CLOUD FIXES ON THE GFE GRIDS BASED ON REAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO GRADUALLY WORKING EAST INTO KANSAS THIS
MORNING. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO OF ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING OVER THESE AREAS AS DRY AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
WORKS INTO COLORADO. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BUT STILL SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE
BY LATER TNT IN NORMAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH OVER
THE STATE WITH A 115 KT JET DIGGING ON THE BACKSIDE. A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME
MIXING OF THE AIRMASS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON....EXPECT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A MAX OF 55-60KT
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW BETWEEN 00-06Z. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING
TO NEED ANY HIGH WIND WARNING AS THERE IS NO GOOD EFFECTIVE MEAN
STATE CRITICAL LAYER TO HELP ACCELERATE AND PUSH DOWN ANY HIGHER
WINDS. OVERALL...IT WILL BE WINDY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AIRMASS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING PATTERN. INCREASED TEMPERATURES JUST LEE OF ANY
MOUNTAIN RANGE...INCLUDING THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

EXPECT WINDIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS AS A
DISTURBANCE PUSHES OVERHEAD WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING. 50 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 830 MB OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...SO GUSTS COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. FOR NOW HAVE GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN STATE BORDER AND THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.
DEPENDING ON ANY REMAINING SNOW ON THE GROUND...AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A DRY AND WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE AT DIA...THEY SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE SHOULD BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION.....RJK



000
FXUS65 KBOU 051754
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1054 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASES AND MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...MORE SO RIGHT ON THE DIVIDE RIGHT NOW.
THEY ARE DECREASING. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS HAS FAIRLY
DECENT NORTHWESTERLIES WINDS BLOWING AT THIS TIME. WILL MAKE SOME
POP...WEATHER...AND CLOUD FIXES ON THE GFE GRIDS BASED ON REAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO GRADUALLY WORKING EAST INTO KANSAS THIS
MORNING. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO OF ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING OVER THESE AREAS AS DRY AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
WORKS INTO COLORADO. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BUT STILL SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE
BY LATER TNT IN NORMAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH OVER
THE STATE WITH A 115 KT JET DIGGING ON THE BACKSIDE. A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME
MIXING OF THE AIRMASS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON....EXPECT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A MAX OF 55-60KT
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW BETWEEN 00-06Z. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING
TO NEED ANY HIGH WIND WARNING AS THERE IS NO GOOD EFFECTIVE MEAN
STATE CRITICAL LAYER TO HELP ACCELERATE AND PUSH DOWN ANY HIGHER
WINDS. OVERALL...IT WILL BE WINDY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AIRMASS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING PATTERN. INCREASED TEMPERATURES JUST LEE OF ANY
MOUNTAIN RANGE...INCLUDING THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

EXPECT WINDIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS AS A
DISTURBANCE PUSHES OVERHEAD WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING. 50 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 830 MB OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...SO GUSTS COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. FOR NOW HAVE GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE...MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN STATE BORDER AND THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.
DEPENDING ON ANY REMAINING SNOW ON THE GROUND...AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A DRY AND WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE AT DIA...THEY SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE SHOULD BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION.....RJK




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