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000
FXUS65 KPUB 301022
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE WX FOR SE CO TODAY. INCREASED
WRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...OR ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80 DEG OVER THE SE
PLAINS. NAM GUIDANCE IS A BIT WARMER...BUT LOOKS A TAD TOO WARM
GIVEN THE WINDS AND TEMPS ALOFT...SO HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY OVERALL.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE CUTOFF WHICH IS APPROACHING
THE BAJA REGION THIS MORN. A SECONDARY VORT MAX CAN BE SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING IS NOT THE BEST FOR CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME PROGS ARE
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AS WELL... BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND MINUS
TWO...AND WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD SEE A FEW LTG STRIKES
OVER THE SRN MTS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE MAY
DRAG SHOWERS ON A BIT LONGER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY TUE MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

NEXT WEAK WAVE AND AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLIP UNDER THE
RIDGE ON TUE...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH
MAINLY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/VIRGA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA
LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD MARCH AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS AND 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 8C...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS (INCLUDING COS...RECORD IS 78F...FORECAST 76F) WILL
APPROACH RECORD MAXES LATE TUE AFTERNOON.

UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHILE DEEP LEE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE KS BORDER WED AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS WED
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS APPROACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE WED AS NOSE OF UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO WRN CO...THOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
SPARSE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WED NIGHT...UPPER WAVE RACES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
COLORADO BY EARLY THU MORNING. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH
UPSLOPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

ON THU/FRI...GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THU AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY FRI. STILL APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 THU BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER BY FRI MORNING. WILL HAVE AT
LEAST LOW POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...LOWEST ALONG THE NM BORDER AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY THU BEHIND
INITIAL COLD FRONT...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR FRI WITH MAX TEMPS
FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOR A CHANGE.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO
WARM...DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301022
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE WX FOR SE CO TODAY. INCREASED
WRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...OR ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80 DEG OVER THE SE
PLAINS. NAM GUIDANCE IS A BIT WARMER...BUT LOOKS A TAD TOO WARM
GIVEN THE WINDS AND TEMPS ALOFT...SO HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY OVERALL.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE CUTOFF WHICH IS APPROACHING
THE BAJA REGION THIS MORN. A SECONDARY VORT MAX CAN BE SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING IS NOT THE BEST FOR CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME PROGS ARE
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AS WELL... BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND MINUS
TWO...AND WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD SEE A FEW LTG STRIKES
OVER THE SRN MTS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE MAY
DRAG SHOWERS ON A BIT LONGER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY TUE MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

NEXT WEAK WAVE AND AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLIP UNDER THE
RIDGE ON TUE...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH
MAINLY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/VIRGA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA
LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD MARCH AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS AND 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 8C...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS (INCLUDING COS...RECORD IS 78F...FORECAST 76F) WILL
APPROACH RECORD MAXES LATE TUE AFTERNOON.

UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHILE DEEP LEE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE KS BORDER WED AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS WED
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS APPROACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE WED AS NOSE OF UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO WRN CO...THOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
SPARSE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WED NIGHT...UPPER WAVE RACES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
COLORADO BY EARLY THU MORNING. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH
UPSLOPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

ON THU/FRI...GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THU AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY FRI. STILL APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 THU BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER BY FRI MORNING. WILL HAVE AT
LEAST LOW POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...LOWEST ALONG THE NM BORDER AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY THU BEHIND
INITIAL COLD FRONT...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR FRI WITH MAX TEMPS
FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOR A CHANGE.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO
WARM...DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301022
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE WX FOR SE CO TODAY. INCREASED
WRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...OR ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80 DEG OVER THE SE
PLAINS. NAM GUIDANCE IS A BIT WARMER...BUT LOOKS A TAD TOO WARM
GIVEN THE WINDS AND TEMPS ALOFT...SO HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY OVERALL.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE CUTOFF WHICH IS APPROACHING
THE BAJA REGION THIS MORN. A SECONDARY VORT MAX CAN BE SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING IS NOT THE BEST FOR CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME PROGS ARE
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AS WELL... BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND MINUS
TWO...AND WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD SEE A FEW LTG STRIKES
OVER THE SRN MTS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE MAY
DRAG SHOWERS ON A BIT LONGER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY TUE MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

NEXT WEAK WAVE AND AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLIP UNDER THE
RIDGE ON TUE...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH
MAINLY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/VIRGA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA
LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD MARCH AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS AND 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 8C...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS (INCLUDING COS...RECORD IS 78F...FORECAST 76F) WILL
APPROACH RECORD MAXES LATE TUE AFTERNOON.

UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHILE DEEP LEE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE KS BORDER WED AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS WED
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS APPROACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE WED AS NOSE OF UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO WRN CO...THOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
SPARSE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WED NIGHT...UPPER WAVE RACES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
COLORADO BY EARLY THU MORNING. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH
UPSLOPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

ON THU/FRI...GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THU AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY FRI. STILL APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 THU BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER BY FRI MORNING. WILL HAVE AT
LEAST LOW POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...LOWEST ALONG THE NM BORDER AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY THU BEHIND
INITIAL COLD FRONT...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR FRI WITH MAX TEMPS
FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOR A CHANGE.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO
WARM...DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301022
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE WX FOR SE CO TODAY. INCREASED
WRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...OR ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80 DEG OVER THE SE
PLAINS. NAM GUIDANCE IS A BIT WARMER...BUT LOOKS A TAD TOO WARM
GIVEN THE WINDS AND TEMPS ALOFT...SO HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY OVERALL.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE CUTOFF WHICH IS APPROACHING
THE BAJA REGION THIS MORN. A SECONDARY VORT MAX CAN BE SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING IS NOT THE BEST FOR CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME PROGS ARE
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AS WELL... BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND MINUS
TWO...AND WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD SEE A FEW LTG STRIKES
OVER THE SRN MTS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE MAY
DRAG SHOWERS ON A BIT LONGER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY TUE MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

NEXT WEAK WAVE AND AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLIP UNDER THE
RIDGE ON TUE...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH
MAINLY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/VIRGA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA
LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD MARCH AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS AND 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 8C...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS (INCLUDING COS...RECORD IS 78F...FORECAST 76F) WILL
APPROACH RECORD MAXES LATE TUE AFTERNOON.

UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHILE DEEP LEE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE KS BORDER WED AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS WED
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS APPROACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE WED AS NOSE OF UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO WRN CO...THOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
SPARSE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WED NIGHT...UPPER WAVE RACES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
COLORADO BY EARLY THU MORNING. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH
UPSLOPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

ON THU/FRI...GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THU AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY FRI. STILL APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 THU BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER BY FRI MORNING. WILL HAVE AT
LEAST LOW POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...LOWEST ALONG THE NM BORDER AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY THU BEHIND
INITIAL COLD FRONT...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR FRI WITH MAX TEMPS
FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOR A CHANGE.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO
WARM...DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301022
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE WX FOR SE CO TODAY. INCREASED
WRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...OR ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80 DEG OVER THE SE
PLAINS. NAM GUIDANCE IS A BIT WARMER...BUT LOOKS A TAD TOO WARM
GIVEN THE WINDS AND TEMPS ALOFT...SO HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY OVERALL.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE CUTOFF WHICH IS APPROACHING
THE BAJA REGION THIS MORN. A SECONDARY VORT MAX CAN BE SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING IS NOT THE BEST FOR CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME PROGS ARE
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AS WELL... BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND MINUS
TWO...AND WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD SEE A FEW LTG STRIKES
OVER THE SRN MTS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE MAY
DRAG SHOWERS ON A BIT LONGER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY TUE MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

NEXT WEAK WAVE AND AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLIP UNDER THE
RIDGE ON TUE...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH
MAINLY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/VIRGA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA
LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD MARCH AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS AND 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 8C...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS (INCLUDING COS...RECORD IS 78F...FORECAST 76F) WILL
APPROACH RECORD MAXES LATE TUE AFTERNOON.

UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHILE DEEP LEE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE KS BORDER WED AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS WED
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS APPROACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE WED AS NOSE OF UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO WRN CO...THOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
SPARSE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WED NIGHT...UPPER WAVE RACES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
COLORADO BY EARLY THU MORNING. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH
UPSLOPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

ON THU/FRI...GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THU AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY FRI. STILL APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 THU BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER BY FRI MORNING. WILL HAVE AT
LEAST LOW POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...LOWEST ALONG THE NM BORDER AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY THU BEHIND
INITIAL COLD FRONT...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR FRI WITH MAX TEMPS
FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOR A CHANGE.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO
WARM...DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 301022
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE WX FOR SE CO TODAY. INCREASED
WRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...OR ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80 DEG OVER THE SE
PLAINS. NAM GUIDANCE IS A BIT WARMER...BUT LOOKS A TAD TOO WARM
GIVEN THE WINDS AND TEMPS ALOFT...SO HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY OVERALL.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE CUTOFF WHICH IS APPROACHING
THE BAJA REGION THIS MORN. A SECONDARY VORT MAX CAN BE SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING IS NOT THE BEST FOR CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME PROGS ARE
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AS WELL... BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND MINUS
TWO...AND WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD SEE A FEW LTG STRIKES
OVER THE SRN MTS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 11000 FEET. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE MAY
DRAG SHOWERS ON A BIT LONGER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY TUE MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

NEXT WEAK WAVE AND AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLIP UNDER THE
RIDGE ON TUE...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH
MAINLY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/VIRGA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA
LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD MARCH AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS AND 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 8C...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS (INCLUDING COS...RECORD IS 78F...FORECAST 76F) WILL
APPROACH RECORD MAXES LATE TUE AFTERNOON.

UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHILE DEEP LEE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE KS BORDER WED AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS WED
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS APPROACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE WED AS NOSE OF UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO WRN CO...THOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
SPARSE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WED NIGHT...UPPER WAVE RACES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
COLORADO BY EARLY THU MORNING. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH
UPSLOPE AND WEAK DYNAMICS TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

ON THU/FRI...GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THU AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY FRI. STILL APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 THU BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER BY FRI MORNING. WILL HAVE AT
LEAST LOW POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...LOWEST ALONG THE NM BORDER AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY THU BEHIND
INITIAL COLD FRONT...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR FRI WITH MAX TEMPS
FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOR A CHANGE.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO
WARM...DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 301002
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BITS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. MAYBE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL..BUT NOT MUCH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...THIS WILL RESTRAIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL
STILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...DROPPED MOUNTAIN LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH
A MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR DENVER...THE RECORD IS 81. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE TEMPERATURES SOME
FM TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE WITH MOST THE MOISTURE AOA 450 MB. MAIN
RESULT FM THIS WILL BE MORE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE JUST SOME BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE MDLS STILL BRING WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A
FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH...WITH STRONG QG ASCENT DEVELOPING FM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER.
RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTN...WL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IF
IT GETS COLD ENOUGH. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL INSTBY. NORTHERN COLORADO ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET IF
THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. WL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OVER CO.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RECOVER AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 301002
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BITS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. MAYBE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL..BUT NOT MUCH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...THIS WILL RESTRAIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL
STILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...DROPPED MOUNTAIN LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH
A MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR DENVER...THE RECORD IS 81. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE TEMPERATURES SOME
FM TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE WITH MOST THE MOISTURE AOA 450 MB. MAIN
RESULT FM THIS WILL BE MORE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE JUST SOME BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE MDLS STILL BRING WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A
FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH...WITH STRONG QG ASCENT DEVELOPING FM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER.
RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTN...WL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IF
IT GETS COLD ENOUGH. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL INSTBY. NORTHERN COLORADO ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET IF
THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. WL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OVER CO.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RECOVER AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301002
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BITS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. MAYBE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL..BUT NOT MUCH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...THIS WILL RESTRAIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL
STILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...DROPPED MOUNTAIN LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH
A MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR DENVER...THE RECORD IS 81. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE TEMPERATURES SOME
FM TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE WITH MOST THE MOISTURE AOA 450 MB. MAIN
RESULT FM THIS WILL BE MORE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE JUST SOME BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE MDLS STILL BRING WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A
FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH...WITH STRONG QG ASCENT DEVELOPING FM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER.
RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTN...WL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IF
IT GETS COLD ENOUGH. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL INSTBY. NORTHERN COLORADO ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET IF
THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. WL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OVER CO.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RECOVER AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301002
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BITS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. MAYBE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL..BUT NOT MUCH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...THIS WILL RESTRAIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL
STILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...DROPPED MOUNTAIN LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH
A MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR DENVER...THE RECORD IS 81. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE TEMPERATURES SOME
FM TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE WITH MOST THE MOISTURE AOA 450 MB. MAIN
RESULT FM THIS WILL BE MORE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE JUST SOME BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE MDLS STILL BRING WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A
FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH...WITH STRONG QG ASCENT DEVELOPING FM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER.
RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTN...WL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IF
IT GETS COLD ENOUGH. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL INSTBY. NORTHERN COLORADO ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET IF
THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. WL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OVER CO.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RECOVER AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301002
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BITS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. MAYBE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL..BUT NOT MUCH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...THIS WILL RESTRAIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL
STILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...DROPPED MOUNTAIN LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH
A MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR DENVER...THE RECORD IS 81. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE TEMPERATURES SOME
FM TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE WITH MOST THE MOISTURE AOA 450 MB. MAIN
RESULT FM THIS WILL BE MORE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE JUST SOME BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE MDLS STILL BRING WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A
FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH...WITH STRONG QG ASCENT DEVELOPING FM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER.
RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTN...WL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IF
IT GETS COLD ENOUGH. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL INSTBY. NORTHERN COLORADO ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET IF
THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. WL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OVER CO.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RECOVER AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 301002
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BITS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. MAYBE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL..BUT NOT MUCH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...THIS WILL RESTRAIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL
STILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...DROPPED MOUNTAIN LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH
A MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR DENVER...THE RECORD IS 81. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE TEMPERATURES SOME
FM TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE WITH MOST THE MOISTURE AOA 450 MB. MAIN
RESULT FM THIS WILL BE MORE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE JUST SOME BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE MDLS STILL BRING WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A
FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH...WITH STRONG QG ASCENT DEVELOPING FM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER.
RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTN...WL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IF
IT GETS COLD ENOUGH. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL INSTBY. NORTHERN COLORADO ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET IF
THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. WL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OVER CO.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RECOVER AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SUNDAY EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY AIR ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. THE 00Z-
08Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM...WHILE A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIRECTED
MOISTURE INTO SWRN CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE. A
SMALLER UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO SE UT AND SW CO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER THE SIERRA-NEVADA MTNS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
LAST EVENING.

MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SRN NV LOW MOVING TO NE
AZ BY THIS EVENING...LOOKING AT THE 300 MB VORTICITY FIELD. THIS
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED MTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THOUGH THE GFS STILL CARRIES
MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN DOES THE ECMWF.
TIMING WITH ALL THE MODELS IS MORE CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUE. THE TWO THINGS TO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK ARE THE WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
FASTEST EASTERLY PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE LOW CENTER MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE
SURFACE FRONT TRAILS BEHIND AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROUGH AND MORE DISTINCT
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AND SAT MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE BRIEFLY THAN SENDS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE TO ABOUT 35 MPH. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SUNDAY EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY AIR ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. THE 00Z-
08Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM...WHILE A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIRECTED
MOISTURE INTO SWRN CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE. A
SMALLER UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO SE UT AND SW CO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER THE SIERRA-NEVADA MTNS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
LAST EVENING.

MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SRN NV LOW MOVING TO NE
AZ BY THIS EVENING...LOOKING AT THE 300 MB VORTICITY FIELD. THIS
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED MTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THOUGH THE GFS STILL CARRIES
MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN DOES THE ECMWF.
TIMING WITH ALL THE MODELS IS MORE CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUE. THE TWO THINGS TO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK ARE THE WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
FASTEST EASTERLY PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE LOW CENTER MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE
SURFACE FRONT TRAILS BEHIND AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROUGH AND MORE DISTINCT
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AND SAT MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE BRIEFLY THAN SENDS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE TO ABOUT 35 MPH. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SUNDAY EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY AIR ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. THE 00Z-
08Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM...WHILE A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIRECTED
MOISTURE INTO SWRN CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE. A
SMALLER UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO SE UT AND SW CO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER THE SIERRA-NEVADA MTNS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
LAST EVENING.

MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SRN NV LOW MOVING TO NE
AZ BY THIS EVENING...LOOKING AT THE 300 MB VORTICITY FIELD. THIS
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED MTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THOUGH THE GFS STILL CARRIES
MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN DOES THE ECMWF.
TIMING WITH ALL THE MODELS IS MORE CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUE. THE TWO THINGS TO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK ARE THE WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
FASTEST EASTERLY PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE LOW CENTER MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE
SURFACE FRONT TRAILS BEHIND AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROUGH AND MORE DISTINCT
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AND SAT MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE BRIEFLY THAN SENDS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE TO ABOUT 35 MPH. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SUNDAY EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY AIR ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. THE 00Z-
08Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM...WHILE A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIRECTED
MOISTURE INTO SWRN CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE. A
SMALLER UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO SE UT AND SW CO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER THE SIERRA-NEVADA MTNS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
LAST EVENING.

MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SRN NV LOW MOVING TO NE
AZ BY THIS EVENING...LOOKING AT THE 300 MB VORTICITY FIELD. THIS
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED MTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THOUGH THE GFS STILL CARRIES
MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN DOES THE ECMWF.
TIMING WITH ALL THE MODELS IS MORE CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUE. THE TWO THINGS TO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK ARE THE WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
FASTEST EASTERLY PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE LOW CENTER MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE
SURFACE FRONT TRAILS BEHIND AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROUGH AND MORE DISTINCT
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AND SAT MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE BRIEFLY THAN SENDS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE TO ABOUT 35 MPH. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300549
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO END SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KALS TERMINAL...BUT
COULD SPREAD WEST WINDS INTO THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300549
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO END SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KALS TERMINAL...BUT
COULD SPREAD WEST WINDS INTO THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300549
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO END SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KALS TERMINAL...BUT
COULD SPREAD WEST WINDS INTO THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300531
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KALS TERMINAL...BUT
COULD SPREAD WEST WINDS INTO THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300531
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KALS TERMINAL...BUT
COULD SPREAD WEST WINDS INTO THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300531
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KALS TERMINAL...BUT
COULD SPREAD WEST WINDS INTO THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 300531
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KALS TERMINAL...BUT
COULD SPREAD WEST WINDS INTO THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
951 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BASICALLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALSO REVEALED AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN NV LATE THIS
EVENING AND PUSHING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SRN UT. 00Z NAM
TAKES THIS DISTURBANCE INTO NE AZ BY MONDAY EVENING. DON`T THINK
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST OVERNIGHT BUT COULD AID
IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SRN MTNS ON MONDAY. THIS IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AVIATION SECTION ALSO UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z MONDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT
THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS
AFTER 20Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
951 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BASICALLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALSO REVEALED AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN NV LATE THIS
EVENING AND PUSHING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SRN UT. 00Z NAM
TAKES THIS DISTURBANCE INTO NE AZ BY MONDAY EVENING. DON`T THINK
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST OVERNIGHT BUT COULD AID
IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SRN MTNS ON MONDAY. THIS IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AVIATION SECTION ALSO UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z MONDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT
THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS
AFTER 20Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
951 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BASICALLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALSO REVEALED AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN NV LATE THIS
EVENING AND PUSHING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SRN UT. 00Z NAM
TAKES THIS DISTURBANCE INTO NE AZ BY MONDAY EVENING. DON`T THINK
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST OVERNIGHT BUT COULD AID
IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SRN MTNS ON MONDAY. THIS IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AVIATION SECTION ALSO UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z MONDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT
THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS
AFTER 20Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
951 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BASICALLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALSO REVEALED AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN NV LATE THIS
EVENING AND PUSHING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SRN UT. 00Z NAM
TAKES THIS DISTURBANCE INTO NE AZ BY MONDAY EVENING. DON`T THINK
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST OVERNIGHT BUT COULD AID
IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SRN MTNS ON MONDAY. THIS IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AVIATION SECTION ALSO UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z MONDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT
THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS
AFTER 20Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
951 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BASICALLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALSO REVEALED AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN NV LATE THIS
EVENING AND PUSHING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SRN UT. 00Z NAM
TAKES THIS DISTURBANCE INTO NE AZ BY MONDAY EVENING. DON`T THINK
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST OVERNIGHT BUT COULD AID
IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SRN MTNS ON MONDAY. THIS IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AVIATION SECTION ALSO UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z MONDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT
THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS
AFTER 20Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 300312
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
912 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE STATE AS A DRY
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER
WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES...BUT THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CLOUD-FREE.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PRESENT TIME
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
SHOW THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
STREAMING SEWRD OVER NERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE
NOTHING MORE THAN OCCASIONAL STAR AND MOON OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE
THESE WISPY CLOUDS SHOULD SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING.
ON MONDAY...MAX HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFT EAST OVER ERN UTAH/WRN BY
MIDDAY WITH WEAKER NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN COLORADO. SFC WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER TOMORROW. MESOSCALE MODELS EVEN
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
LATE MORNING/ERLY AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME
HIGH-LEVEL WAVE CLOUD FORMATION ON THE LEESIDE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH GENERALLY A
4-8 DEG F INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A 10-18 DEG F WARMUP ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW RECORD HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED SO ANY SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS REMAINS RATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STORE IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHERE THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER AND GFS
SLOWER AND DEEPER. WILL BROAD BRUSH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NOW BUT
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RAIN LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO SNOW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASING DESPITE TIMING ISSUES.

DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION TO GENTLE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS WEAK
LEE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300006
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
606 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.
THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...THIS TIME MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300006
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
606 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.
THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...THIS TIME MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300006
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
606 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.
THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...THIS TIME MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300006
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
606 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.
THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...THIS TIME MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 300006
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
606 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING.  OBS AND HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST PROGS.  EXPECT
POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.
THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...THIS TIME MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292242
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z WHICH ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO OR KTEX.
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 292242
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z WHICH ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO OR KTEX.
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292122
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015


THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292122
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015


THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 292122
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015


THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KPUB 292120
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
320 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.
THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...THIS TIME MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 292120
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
320 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.
THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...THIS TIME MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 292120
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
320 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH...

NOT A LOT...BUT A FEW.  MORE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  WHAT YOU
SEE IS WHAT YOU GET.  SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160...INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 MPH.

ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH...TO ABOUT HIGHWAY
50 OR SO.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE THE SAME...LIGHTNING AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 MPH.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
COULD BE SOME BLEED OVER ONTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO AROUND 15 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.  SEEMS LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE THE NORM THESE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN...VIRGA POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MOISTER IS PRETTY SLIM...SO ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL POP UP MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ALOFT AND
STRENGTHEN...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TUESDAY. MODELS
FOCUS ON THIS DAY AS BEING THE DRIEST AND MOST WINDY ACROSS ALL
THE CWA...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...MAKES THE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. THURSDAY
MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWA...SO THERE MAY BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH MUCH FASTER...WHICH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH BACK TO
THE WEST. THE GFS BRINGS THE COOLER AIR IN LATER ACROSS THE PLAINS
(LATER FRIDAY)...WHICH THE EUROPEAN HAS RIDGING AND DRYING BY
THEN. THE FORECAST PROCEDURE HAS THE COOLEST DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.
THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...THIS TIME MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KBOU 292111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PRESENT TIME
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
SHOW THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
STREAMING SEWRD OVER NERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE
NOTHING MORE THAN OCCASIONAL STAR AND MOON OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE
THESE WISPY CLOUDS SHOULD SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING.
ON MONDAY...MAX HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFT EAST OVER ERN UTAH/WRN BY
MIDDAY WITH WEAKER NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN COLORADO. SFC WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER TOMORROW. MESOSCALE MODELS EVEN
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
LATE MORNING/ERLY AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME
HIGH-LEVEL WAVE CLOUD FORMATION ON THE LEESIDE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH GENERALLY A
4-8 DEG F INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A 10-18 DEG F WARMUP ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW RECORD HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED SO ANY SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS REMAINS RATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STORE IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHERE THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER AND GFS
SLOWER AND DEEPER. WILL BROAD BRUSH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NOW BUT
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RAIN LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO SNOW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASING DESPITE TIMING ISSUES.

DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-14 KTS ACRS THE DENVER METRO AREA AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10
KTS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD
PRODUCE A S-SELY WIND OF 12-18 KTS AT KAPA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. ON MONDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE/SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACRS THE METRO AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN A LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 292111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PRESENT TIME
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
SHOW THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
STREAMING SEWRD OVER NERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE
NOTHING MORE THAN OCCASIONAL STAR AND MOON OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE
THESE WISPY CLOUDS SHOULD SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING.
ON MONDAY...MAX HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFT EAST OVER ERN UTAH/WRN BY
MIDDAY WITH WEAKER NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN COLORADO. SFC WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER TOMORROW. MESOSCALE MODELS EVEN
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
LATE MORNING/ERLY AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME
HIGH-LEVEL WAVE CLOUD FORMATION ON THE LEESIDE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH GENERALLY A
4-8 DEG F INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A 10-18 DEG F WARMUP ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW RECORD HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED SO ANY SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS REMAINS RATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STORE IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHERE THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER AND GFS
SLOWER AND DEEPER. WILL BROAD BRUSH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NOW BUT
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RAIN LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO SNOW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASING DESPITE TIMING ISSUES.

DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-14 KTS ACRS THE DENVER METRO AREA AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10
KTS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD
PRODUCE A S-SELY WIND OF 12-18 KTS AT KAPA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. ON MONDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE/SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACRS THE METRO AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN A LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 292111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PRESENT TIME
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
SHOW THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
STREAMING SEWRD OVER NERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE
NOTHING MORE THAN OCCASIONAL STAR AND MOON OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE
THESE WISPY CLOUDS SHOULD SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING.
ON MONDAY...MAX HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFT EAST OVER ERN UTAH/WRN BY
MIDDAY WITH WEAKER NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN COLORADO. SFC WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER TOMORROW. MESOSCALE MODELS EVEN
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
LATE MORNING/ERLY AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME
HIGH-LEVEL WAVE CLOUD FORMATION ON THE LEESIDE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH GENERALLY A
4-8 DEG F INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A 10-18 DEG F WARMUP ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW RECORD HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED SO ANY SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS REMAINS RATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STORE IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHERE THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER AND GFS
SLOWER AND DEEPER. WILL BROAD BRUSH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NOW BUT
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RAIN LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO SNOW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASING DESPITE TIMING ISSUES.

DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-14 KTS ACRS THE DENVER METRO AREA AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10
KTS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD
PRODUCE A S-SELY WIND OF 12-18 KTS AT KAPA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. ON MONDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE/SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACRS THE METRO AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN A LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 292111
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PRESENT TIME
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
SHOW THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
STREAMING SEWRD OVER NERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE
NOTHING MORE THAN OCCASIONAL STAR AND MOON OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE
THESE WISPY CLOUDS SHOULD SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING.
ON MONDAY...MAX HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFT EAST OVER ERN UTAH/WRN BY
MIDDAY WITH WEAKER NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN COLORADO. SFC WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER TOMORROW. MESOSCALE MODELS EVEN
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
LATE MORNING/ERLY AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME
HIGH-LEVEL WAVE CLOUD FORMATION ON THE LEESIDE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH GENERALLY A
4-8 DEG F INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A 10-18 DEG F WARMUP ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW RECORD HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED SO ANY SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS REMAINS RATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STORE IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHERE THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER AND GFS
SLOWER AND DEEPER. WILL BROAD BRUSH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NOW BUT
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RAIN LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO SNOW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASING DESPITE TIMING ISSUES.

DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-14 KTS ACRS THE DENVER METRO AREA AT THE
PRESENT TIME WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10
KTS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD
PRODUCE A S-SELY WIND OF 12-18 KTS AT KAPA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. ON MONDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE/SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACRS THE METRO AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN A LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291754
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BLOWING DUST SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE/WEB CAMS OVER FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...EAST OF LA JUNTA. PER WEB CAMS...VISIBILITIES NOT ALL
THAT BAD...MAYBE DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN PLACES...MOSTLY BETTER THAN
THAT. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO FORECASTS OUT THAT WAY. ALSO LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291754
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BLOWING DUST SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE/WEB CAMS OVER FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...EAST OF LA JUNTA. PER WEB CAMS...VISIBILITIES NOT ALL
THAT BAD...MAYBE DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN PLACES...MOSTLY BETTER THAN
THAT. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO FORECASTS OUT THAT WAY. ALSO LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291754
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BLOWING DUST SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE/WEB CAMS OVER FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...EAST OF LA JUNTA. PER WEB CAMS...VISIBILITIES NOT ALL
THAT BAD...MAYBE DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN PLACES...MOSTLY BETTER THAN
THAT. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO FORECASTS OUT THAT WAY. ALSO LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291754
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BLOWING DUST SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE/WEB CAMS OVER FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...EAST OF LA JUNTA. PER WEB CAMS...VISIBILITIES NOT ALL
THAT BAD...MAYBE DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN PLACES...MOSTLY BETTER THAN
THAT. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO FORECASTS OUT THAT WAY. ALSO LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291754
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BLOWING DUST SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE/WEB CAMS OVER FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...EAST OF LA JUNTA. PER WEB CAMS...VISIBILITIES NOT ALL
THAT BAD...MAYBE DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN PLACES...MOSTLY BETTER THAN
THAT. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO FORECASTS OUT THAT WAY. ALSO LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291754
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BLOWING DUST SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE/WEB CAMS OVER FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...EAST OF LA JUNTA. PER WEB CAMS...VISIBILITIES NOT ALL
THAT BAD...MAYBE DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN PLACES...MOSTLY BETTER THAN
THAT. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO FORECASTS OUT THAT WAY. ALSO LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291741
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1141 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291741
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1141 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291741
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1141 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291741
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1141 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KGJT 291729 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291729 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291729 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291729 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291729 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291729 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291544
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
944 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291544
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
944 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291544
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
944 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291544
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
944 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291544
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
944 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291544
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
944 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291533 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 03Z THIS EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BUILDUPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291533 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 03Z THIS EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BUILDUPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291533 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 03Z THIS EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BUILDUPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291533 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 03Z THIS EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BUILDUPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291443 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE AND CORRECTION...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW LAYER OF HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT
BEHIND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS GATHERED UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING THE RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS MOST CONCENTRATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER OUT
ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE MOMENT
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN WELD...MORGAN...
WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE BACK EDGE TO THIS
BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH
OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE
HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS.
AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITHIN THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE/RE STILL
IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...IT MAY NOT FEEL
THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 5-10KT NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS IN AREAS EAST OF
I-25. THEN AROUND 17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN
THE DENVER AREA GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/
DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS
BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291443 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE AND CORRECTION...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW LAYER OF HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT
BEHIND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS GATHERED UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING THE RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS MOST CONCENTRATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER OUT
ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE MOMENT
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN WELD...MORGAN...
WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE BACK EDGE TO THIS
BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH
OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE
HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS.
AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITHIN THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE/RE STILL
IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...IT MAY NOT FEEL
THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 5-10KT NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS IN AREAS EAST OF
I-25. THEN AROUND 17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN
THE DENVER AREA GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/
DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS
BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291443 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE AND CORRECTION...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW LAYER OF HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT
BEHIND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS GATHERED UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING THE RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS MOST CONCENTRATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER OUT
ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE MOMENT
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN WELD...MORGAN...
WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE BACK EDGE TO THIS
BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH
OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE
HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS.
AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITHIN THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE/RE STILL
IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...IT MAY NOT FEEL
THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 5-10KT NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS IN AREAS EAST OF
I-25. THEN AROUND 17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN
THE DENVER AREA GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/
DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS
BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291443 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE AND CORRECTION...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW LAYER OF HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT
BEHIND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS GATHERED UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING THE RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS MOST CONCENTRATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER OUT
ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE MOMENT
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN WELD...MORGAN...
WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE BACK EDGE TO THIS
BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH
OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE
HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS.
AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITHIN THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE/RE STILL
IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...IT MAY NOT FEEL
THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 5-10KT NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS IN AREAS EAST OF
I-25. THEN AROUND 17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN
THE DENVER AREA GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/
DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS
BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291443 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE AND CORRECTION...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW LAYER OF HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT
BEHIND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS GATHERED UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING THE RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS MOST CONCENTRATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER OUT
ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE MOMENT
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN WELD...MORGAN...
WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE BACK EDGE TO THIS
BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH
OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE
HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS.
AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITHIN THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE/RE STILL
IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...IT MAY NOT FEEL
THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 5-10KT NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS IN AREAS EAST OF
I-25. THEN AROUND 17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN
THE DENVER AREA GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/
DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS
BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291443 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE AND CORRECTION...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW LAYER OF HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT
BEHIND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS GATHERED UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING THE RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS MOST CONCENTRATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER OUT
ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE MOMENT
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN WELD...MORGAN...
WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE BACK EDGE TO THIS
BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH
OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE
HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS.
AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITHIN THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE/RE STILL
IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...IT MAY NOT FEEL
THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 5-10KT NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS IN AREAS EAST OF
I-25. THEN AROUND 17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN
THE DENVER AREA GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/
DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS
BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291436
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
836 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT BEHIND
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS COLLECTED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS CONCENTRATED MOST FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE
MOMENT WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN
WELD...MORGAN...WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE
BACK EDGE TO THIS BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS
CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT
WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS. AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NENR PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY
VEER AROUND TO A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE STILL IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
IT MAY NOT FEEL THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10KT
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS EAST OF I-25. THEN AROUND
17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291436
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
836 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT BEHIND
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS COLLECTED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS CONCENTRATED MOST FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE
MOMENT WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN
WELD...MORGAN...WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE
BACK EDGE TO THIS BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS
CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT
WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS. AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NENR PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY
VEER AROUND TO A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE STILL IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
IT MAY NOT FEEL THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10KT
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS EAST OF I-25. THEN AROUND
17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291436
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
836 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT BEHIND
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS COLLECTED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS CONCENTRATED MOST FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE
MOMENT WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN
WELD...MORGAN...WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE
BACK EDGE TO THIS BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS
CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT
WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS. AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NENR PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY
VEER AROUND TO A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE STILL IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
IT MAY NOT FEEL THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10KT
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS EAST OF I-25. THEN AROUND
17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291436
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
836 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT BEHIND
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS COLLECTED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS CONCENTRATED MOST FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE
MOMENT WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN
WELD...MORGAN...WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE
BACK EDGE TO THIS BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS
CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT
WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS. AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NENR PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY
VEER AROUND TO A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE STILL IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
IT MAY NOT FEEL THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10KT
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS EAST OF I-25. THEN AROUND
17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 291436
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
836 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT BEHIND
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS COLLECTED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS CONCENTRATED MOST FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE
MOMENT WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN
WELD...MORGAN...WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE
BACK EDGE TO THIS BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS
CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT
WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS. AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NENR PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY
VEER AROUND TO A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE STILL IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
IT MAY NOT FEEL THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10KT
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS EAST OF I-25. THEN AROUND
17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291000
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY AS
700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291000
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY AS
700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291000
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 291000
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KPUB 291000
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY AS
700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 291000
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.

WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY AS
700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 290936
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 03Z THIS EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BUILDUPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290936
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 03Z THIS EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BUILDUPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW INTO LEE SIDE TROF CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR KCOS AROUND 09Z...AND FOR KPUB
AROUND 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. KALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL WEST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND EASTERN SAN JUANS AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KALS.
MEANWHILE...KPUB AND KCOS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 290516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW INTO LEE SIDE TROF CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR KCOS AROUND 09Z...AND FOR KPUB
AROUND 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. KALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL WEST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND EASTERN SAN JUANS AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KALS.
MEANWHILE...KPUB AND KCOS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 290516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW INTO LEE SIDE TROF CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR KCOS AROUND 09Z...AND FOR KPUB
AROUND 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. KALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL WEST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND EASTERN SAN JUANS AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KALS.
MEANWHILE...KPUB AND KCOS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 290516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW INTO LEE SIDE TROF CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR KCOS AROUND 09Z...AND FOR KPUB
AROUND 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. KALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL WEST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND EASTERN SAN JUANS AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KALS.
MEANWHILE...KPUB AND KCOS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KPUB 290516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW INTO LEE SIDE TROF CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR KCOS AROUND 09Z...AND FOR KPUB
AROUND 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 12 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. KALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL WEST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND EASTERN SAN JUANS AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KALS.
MEANWHILE...KPUB AND KCOS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290508
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1108 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE FRONT HAD SAGGED SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AT 11PM AND THE
BEST FORCING WAS MOVING EAST OF VAIL PASS. ASPEN AIRPORT RECEIVED
A LIGHT SHOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT VALLEYS WERE MOSTLY DRY.
THIS MILD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR ALL BUT
THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING LIGHT
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BE RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS. LIGHTNING IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP IN FROM NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAKE IT TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BUT GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
TO DEVELOP IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND POSSIBLY LONGER IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. ALSO IN SPITE OF THE WEAK FORCING AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THEN QUICKLY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
...6PM-10PM MDT. ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

ON SUNDAY MODELS HINT THAT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED
FRONT...AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTH OF THE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD DUE TO THE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AIR MASS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END
OF MARCH. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IT APPEARS THERE ARE TWO MAIN CIRCULATIONS ACROSS NOAM THAT WILL BE
FEEDING ENERGY INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES...THE NORTH PACIFIC REGION
INCLUDING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE POLAR VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF
HUDSON BAY. INITIALLY THROUGH MID WEEK WE WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED
BY THE PACIFIC FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS THIS DOMINANT RIDGE IS FLATTENED. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK THE TWO FEEDS APPEAR TO PHASE AND THIS WILL PUSH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES MAY END UP ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. PWATS LOOKS TO STALL AT AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY FALL OFF AS THE COOLER AIR DROPS IN. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM SO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
COME WEDNESDAY AND RE-FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS WYOMING
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIR SOURCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES COME FRIDAY AND END
UP BELOW NORMAL. A QUICK REBOUND IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM
KASE EASTWARD WITH MTN TOPS POSSIBLY OBSCURED AT TIMES. AFTER 09Z
VFR RETURNS TO ALL SITES

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY WITH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

DESPITE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DESCRIBED TAF SITES AND OTHER AREA
AIRPORTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE FLIGHT CATEGORIES REDUCED BELOW
VISUAL RULES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AND LOWERED CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 290508
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1108 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE FRONT HAD SAGGED SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AT 11PM AND THE
BEST FORCING WAS MOVING EAST OF VAIL PASS. ASPEN AIRPORT RECEIVED
A LIGHT SHOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT VALLEYS WERE MOSTLY DRY.
THIS MILD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR ALL BUT
THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING LIGHT
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BE RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS. LIGHTNING IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP IN FROM NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAKE IT TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BUT GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
TO DEVELOP IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND POSSIBLY LONGER IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. ALSO IN SPITE OF THE WEAK FORCING AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THEN QUICKLY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
...6PM-10PM MDT. ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

ON SUNDAY MODELS HINT THAT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED
FRONT...AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTH OF THE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD DUE TO THE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AIR MASS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END
OF MARCH. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IT APPEARS THERE ARE TWO MAIN CIRCULATIONS ACROSS NOAM THAT WILL BE
FEEDING ENERGY INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES...THE NORTH PACIFIC REGION
INCLUDING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE POLAR VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF
HUDSON BAY. INITIALLY THROUGH MID WEEK WE WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED
BY THE PACIFIC FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS THIS DOMINANT RIDGE IS FLATTENED. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK THE TWO FEEDS APPEAR TO PHASE AND THIS WILL PUSH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES MAY END UP ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. PWATS LOOKS TO STALL AT AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY FALL OFF AS THE COOLER AIR DROPS IN. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM SO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
COME WEDNESDAY AND RE-FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS WYOMING
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIR SOURCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES COME FRIDAY AND END
UP BELOW NORMAL. A QUICK REBOUND IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM
KASE EASTWARD WITH MTN TOPS POSSIBLY OBSCURED AT TIMES. AFTER 09Z
VFR RETURNS TO ALL SITES

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY WITH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

DESPITE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DESCRIBED TAF SITES AND OTHER AREA
AIRPORTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE FLIGHT CATEGORIES REDUCED BELOW
VISUAL RULES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AND LOWERED CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 290315
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD COUNTY...AS
WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
PRODUCT OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DECREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER THAT. LATER TONIGHT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ALL THESE FEATURES
ARE HANDLED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST SUITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN TANDEM WITH A SFC COLD FRONT NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NWRN WYOMING AND NRN UTAH. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...AND QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE RACING SEWRD ACRS
WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DOWN ACRS N-CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SFC
FRONT. WRF...RAP...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW BNDRY
LAYER WINDS ON THE PLAINS TURNING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING. WHEREAS THE NAM DELAYS THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND ITS WIND SHIFT UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. MOST OF THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND HINTS OF A TRIPLE POINT JUST BEYOND
THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVELS SATURATING WITH WEAK
QG ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK SHORT-LIVED T-SHOWER OVER THE NERN CORNER.
OTHERWISE ONLY GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
RISING HUMIDITIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTN RANGES.

SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND STG/GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE STATE. SHOULD THEN SEE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDING EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY WITH STG MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10-15 DEG F
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. THAT/S STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK AS FLOW SHIFTS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
ACROSS PARK COUNTY WITH A BIT BETTER MOISTURE THERE.

AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS COLORADO SOMETIME IN THE
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTION SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LOW
POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH OR SO ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM AND 5 AM.
NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS OUT EARLIER TODAY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 PM.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS
FIRE WEATHER...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KBOU 290315
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD COUNTY...AS
WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
PRODUCT OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DECREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER THAT. LATER TONIGHT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ALL THESE FEATURES
ARE HANDLED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST SUITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN TANDEM WITH A SFC COLD FRONT NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NWRN WYOMING AND NRN UTAH. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...AND QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE RACING SEWRD ACRS
WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DOWN ACRS N-CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SFC
FRONT. WRF...RAP...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW BNDRY
LAYER WINDS ON THE PLAINS TURNING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING. WHEREAS THE NAM DELAYS THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND ITS WIND SHIFT UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. MOST OF THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND HINTS OF A TRIPLE POINT JUST BEYOND
THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVELS SATURATING WITH WEAK
QG ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK SHORT-LIVED T-SHOWER OVER THE NERN CORNER.
OTHERWISE ONLY GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
RISING HUMIDITIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTN RANGES.

SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND STG/GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE STATE. SHOULD THEN SEE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDING EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY WITH STG MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10-15 DEG F
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. THAT/S STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK AS FLOW SHIFTS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
ACROSS PARK COUNTY WITH A BIT BETTER MOISTURE THERE.

AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS COLORADO SOMETIME IN THE
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTION SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LOW
POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH OR SO ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM AND 5 AM.
NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS OUT EARLIER TODAY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 PM.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS
FIRE WEATHER...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 290315
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD COUNTY...AS
WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
PRODUCT OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DECREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER THAT. LATER TONIGHT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ALL THESE FEATURES
ARE HANDLED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST SUITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN TANDEM WITH A SFC COLD FRONT NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NWRN WYOMING AND NRN UTAH. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...AND QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE RACING SEWRD ACRS
WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DOWN ACRS N-CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SFC
FRONT. WRF...RAP...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW BNDRY
LAYER WINDS ON THE PLAINS TURNING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING. WHEREAS THE NAM DELAYS THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND ITS WIND SHIFT UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. MOST OF THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND HINTS OF A TRIPLE POINT JUST BEYOND
THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVELS SATURATING WITH WEAK
QG ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK SHORT-LIVED T-SHOWER OVER THE NERN CORNER.
OTHERWISE ONLY GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
RISING HUMIDITIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTN RANGES.

SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND STG/GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE STATE. SHOULD THEN SEE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDING EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY WITH STG MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10-15 DEG F
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. THAT/S STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK AS FLOW SHIFTS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
ACROSS PARK COUNTY WITH A BIT BETTER MOISTURE THERE.

AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS COLORADO SOMETIME IN THE
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTION SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LOW
POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH OR SO ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM AND 5 AM.
NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS OUT EARLIER TODAY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 PM.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS
FIRE WEATHER...DANKERS



000
FXUS65 KBOU 290315
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD COUNTY...AS
WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
PRODUCT OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DECREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER THAT. LATER TONIGHT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ALL THESE FEATURES
ARE HANDLED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST SUITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN TANDEM WITH A SFC COLD FRONT NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NWRN WYOMING AND NRN UTAH. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...AND QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE RACING SEWRD ACRS
WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DOWN ACRS N-CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SFC
FRONT. WRF...RAP...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW BNDRY
LAYER WINDS ON THE PLAINS TURNING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING. WHEREAS THE NAM DELAYS THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND ITS WIND SHIFT UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. MOST OF THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND HINTS OF A TRIPLE POINT JUST BEYOND
THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVELS SATURATING WITH WEAK
QG ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK SHORT-LIVED T-SHOWER OVER THE NERN CORNER.
OTHERWISE ONLY GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
RISING HUMIDITIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTN RANGES.

SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND STG/GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE STATE. SHOULD THEN SEE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDING EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY WITH STG MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10-15 DEG F
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. THAT/S STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK AS FLOW SHIFTS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
ACROSS PARK COUNTY WITH A BIT BETTER MOISTURE THERE.

AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS COLORADO SOMETIME IN THE
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTION SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LOW
POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH OR SO ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM AND 5 AM.
NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS OUT EARLIER TODAY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 PM.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS
FIRE WEATHER...DANKERS




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290018
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
618 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH COLORADO. A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290018
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
618 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH COLORADO. A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290018
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
618 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH COLORADO. A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290018
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
618 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH COLORADO. A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 290018
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
618 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH COLORADO. A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 290018
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
618 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH COLORADO. A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
422 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP IN FROM NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAKE IT TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BUT GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
TO DEVELOP IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND POSSIBLY LONGER IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. ALSO IN SPITE OF THE WEAK FORCING AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THEN QUICKLY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
...6PM-10PM MDT. ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

ON SUNDAY MODELS HINT THAT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED
FRONT...AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTH OF THE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD DUE TO THE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AIR MASS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END
OF MARCH. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IT APPEARS THERE ARE TWO MAIN CIRCULATIONS ACROSS NOAM THAT WILL BE
FEEDING ENERGY INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES...THE NORTH PACIFIC REGION
INCLUDING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE POLAR VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF
HUDSON BAY. INITIALLY THROUGH MID WEEK WE WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED
BY THE PACIFIC FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS THIS DOMINANT RIDGE IS FLATTENED. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK THE TWO FEEDS APPEAR TO PHASE AND THIS WILL PUSH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES MAY END UP ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. PWATS LOOKS TO STALL AT AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY FALL OFF AS THE COOLER AIR DROPS IN. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM SO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
COME WEDNESDAY AND RE-FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS WYOMING
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIR SOURCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES COME FRIDAY AND END
UP BELOW NORMAL. A QUICK REBOUND IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHING NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
WILL GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AIRPORTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO COULD EXPERIENCE SPRINKLES. OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE ARE
THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS WHERE UNPREDICTABLE GUSTS TO 35 TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z. MEANWHILE...WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25
MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 03Z GENERATING MODERATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY WITH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

DESPITE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DESCRIBED TAF SITES AND OTHER AREA
AIRPORTS WILL NOT SEE FLIGHT CATEGORIES REDUCED BELOW VISUAL
RULES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 282117
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP IN FROM NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAKE IT TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BUT GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
TO DEVELOP IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND POSSIBLY LONGER IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. ALSO IN SPITE OF THE WEAK FORCING AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THEN QUICKLY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
...6PM-10PM MDT. ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

ON SUNDAY MODELS HINT THAT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED
FRONT...AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTH OF THE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD DUE TO THE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AIR MASS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END
OF MARCH. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IT APPEARS THERE ARE TWO MAIN CIRCULATIONS ACROSS NOAM THAT WILL BE
FEEDING ENERGY INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES...THE NORTH PACIFIC REGION
INCLUDING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE POLAR VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF
HUDSON BAY. INITIALLY THROUGH MID WEEK WE WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED
BY THE PACIFIC FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS THIS DOMINANT RIDGE IS FLATTENED. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK THE TWO FEEDS APPEAR TO PHASE AND THIS WILL PUSH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES MAY END UP ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. PWATS LOOKS TO STALL AT AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY FALL OFF AS THE COOLER AIR DROPS IN. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM SO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
COME WEDNESDAY AND RE-FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS WYOMING
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIR SOURCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES COME FRIDAY AND END
UP BELOW NORMAL. A QUICK REBOUND IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AFTER 22Z AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND COLORADO CENTRAL MTNS. AT TIMES GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES KVEL KEGE
KASE BETWEEN 00Z- 04Z. ELSEWHERE KCAG KHDN KSBS COULD SEE
VRB15G35KT...AND BRIEFLY LOWERED CIGS WITH ISOLATED OR VICINITY
RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. MODERATE MTN TOP LEVEL TURBULENCE
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 04Z...STRONGEST NORTH. ERRATIC STRONG GUSTS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF AFTERNOON-EVENING BUILDUPS AND/OR
VIRGA.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 282117
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP IN FROM NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAKE IT TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BUT GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
TO DEVELOP IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND POSSIBLY LONGER IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. ALSO IN SPITE OF THE WEAK FORCING AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THEN QUICKLY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
...6PM-10PM MDT. ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

ON SUNDAY MODELS HINT THAT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED
FRONT...AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTH OF THE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD DUE TO THE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AIR MASS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END
OF MARCH. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IT APPEARS THERE ARE TWO MAIN CIRCULATIONS ACROSS NOAM THAT WILL BE
FEEDING ENERGY INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES...THE NORTH PACIFIC REGION
INCLUDING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE POLAR VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF
HUDSON BAY. INITIALLY THROUGH MID WEEK WE WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED
BY THE PACIFIC FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS THIS DOMINANT RIDGE IS FLATTENED. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK THE TWO FEEDS APPEAR TO PHASE AND THIS WILL PUSH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES MAY END UP ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. PWATS LOOKS TO STALL AT AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY FALL OFF AS THE COOLER AIR DROPS IN. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM SO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
COME WEDNESDAY AND RE-FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS WYOMING
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIR SOURCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES COME FRIDAY AND END
UP BELOW NORMAL. A QUICK REBOUND IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AFTER 22Z AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND COLORADO CENTRAL MTNS. AT TIMES GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES KVEL KEGE
KASE BETWEEN 00Z- 04Z. ELSEWHERE KCAG KHDN KSBS COULD SEE
VRB15G35KT...AND BRIEFLY LOWERED CIGS WITH ISOLATED OR VICINITY
RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. MODERATE MTN TOP LEVEL TURBULENCE
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 04Z...STRONGEST NORTH. ERRATIC STRONG GUSTS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF AFTERNOON-EVENING BUILDUPS AND/OR
VIRGA.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282059
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH COLORADO. A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 282059
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH COLORADO. A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KBOU 282047
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN TANDEM WITH A SFC COLD FRONT NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NWRN WYOMING AND NRN UTAH. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...AND QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE RACING SEWRD ACRS
WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DOWN ACRS N-CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SFC
FRONT. WRF...RAP...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW BNDRY
LAYER WINDS ON THE PLAINS TURNING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING. WHEREAS THE NAM DELAYS THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND ITS WIND SHIFT UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. MOST OF THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND HINTS OF A TRIPLE POINT JUST BEYOND
THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVELS SATURATING WITH WEAK
QG ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK SHORT-LIVED T-SHOWER OVER THE NERN CORNER.
OTHERWISE ONLY GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
RISING HUMIDITIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTN RANGES.

SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND STG/GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE STATE. SHOULD THEN SEE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDING EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY WITH STG MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10-15 DEG F
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. THAT/S STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK AS FLOW SHIFTS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
ACROSS PARK COUNTY WITH A BIT BETTER MOISTURE THERE.

AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS COLORADO SOMETIME IN THE
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTION SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LOW
POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOOK FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT KBJC AND KDEN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GUSTS WILL RUN IN THE
15-25KT RANGE. AFTERNOON WINDS AT KAPA WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FROM
A NWLY DIRECTION. BY NIGHT FALL WIND SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
OFF AS WINDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER BY LATE
EVENING...SKIES WILL BEGIN FILLING WITH MID-LEVEL CUMULUS TYPE
CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT. LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
DENVER AROUND 06Z. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN
OR LOW CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE AS THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
ALSO DRY BUT COOLER. ON SUNDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 12-22KT AT KDEN
AND KAPA PRIOR TO 18Z. NLY WIND AT KBJC ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG BUT COULD SEE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS FORM BY AROUND 15Z. REST
OF THE DAY...WINDS WEAKEN AND TURN ELY UNDER NEARLY CLOUDLESS
SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIREWEATHER ZONE 238..239 AND 242 REMAIN IN A RED FLAG WARNING
OUNTIL 1800 MDT. GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUEL CONDITIONS
TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GRADUAL RH
RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ238-239-242.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 282047
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN TANDEM WITH A SFC COLD FRONT NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NWRN WYOMING AND NRN UTAH. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...AND QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE RACING SEWRD ACRS
WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DOWN ACRS N-CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SFC
FRONT. WRF...RAP...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW BNDRY
LAYER WINDS ON THE PLAINS TURNING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING. WHEREAS THE NAM DELAYS THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND ITS WIND SHIFT UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. MOST OF THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND HINTS OF A TRIPLE POINT JUST BEYOND
THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVELS SATURATING WITH WEAK
QG ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK SHORT-LIVED T-SHOWER OVER THE NERN CORNER.
OTHERWISE ONLY GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
RISING HUMIDITIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTN RANGES.

SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND STG/GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE STATE. SHOULD THEN SEE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDING EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY WITH STG MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10-15 DEG F
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. THAT/S STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK AS FLOW SHIFTS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
ACROSS PARK COUNTY WITH A BIT BETTER MOISTURE THERE.

AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS COLORADO SOMETIME IN THE
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTION SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LOW
POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOOK FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT KBJC AND KDEN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GUSTS WILL RUN IN THE
15-25KT RANGE. AFTERNOON WINDS AT KAPA WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FROM
A NWLY DIRECTION. BY NIGHT FALL WIND SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
OFF AS WINDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER BY LATE
EVENING...SKIES WILL BEGIN FILLING WITH MID-LEVEL CUMULUS TYPE
CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT. LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
DENVER AROUND 06Z. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN
OR LOW CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE AS THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
ALSO DRY BUT COOLER. ON SUNDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 12-22KT AT KDEN
AND KAPA PRIOR TO 18Z. NLY WIND AT KBJC ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG BUT COULD SEE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS FORM BY AROUND 15Z. REST
OF THE DAY...WINDS WEAKEN AND TURN ELY UNDER NEARLY CLOUDLESS
SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIREWEATHER ZONE 238..239 AND 242 REMAIN IN A RED FLAG WARNING
OUNTIL 1800 MDT. GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUEL CONDITIONS
TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GRADUAL RH
RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ238-239-242.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 282047
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN TANDEM WITH A SFC COLD FRONT NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NWRN WYOMING AND NRN UTAH. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...AND QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE RACING SEWRD ACRS
WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DOWN ACRS N-CNTRL AND NERN COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SFC
FRONT. WRF...RAP...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW BNDRY
LAYER WINDS ON THE PLAINS TURNING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING. WHEREAS THE NAM DELAYS THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND ITS WIND SHIFT UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. MOST OF THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND HINTS OF A TRIPLE POINT JUST BEYOND
THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CROSS
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVELS SATURATING WITH WEAK
QG ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK SHORT-LIVED T-SHOWER OVER THE NERN CORNER.
OTHERWISE ONLY GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
RISING HUMIDITIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTN RANGES.

SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND STG/GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST MOVES
CLOSER TO THE STATE. SHOULD THEN SEE WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDING EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY WITH STG MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10-15 DEG F
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. THAT/S STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S.  THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK AS FLOW SHIFTS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
ACROSS PARK COUNTY WITH A BIT BETTER MOISTURE THERE.

AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS COLORADO SOMETIME IN THE
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTION SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LOW
POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOOK FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT KBJC AND KDEN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GUSTS WILL RUN IN THE
15-25KT RANGE. AFTERNOON WINDS AT KAPA WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FROM
A NWLY DIRECTION. BY NIGHT FALL WIND SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
OFF AS WINDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER BY LATE
EVENING...SKIES WILL BEGIN FILLING WITH MID-LEVEL CUMULUS TYPE
CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT. LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
DENVER AROUND 06Z. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN
OR LOW CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE AS THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
ALSO DRY BUT COOLER. ON SUNDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 12-22KT AT KDEN
AND KAPA PRIOR TO 18Z. NLY WIND AT KBJC ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG BUT COULD SEE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS FORM BY AROUND 15Z. REST
OF THE DAY...WINDS WEAKEN AND TURN ELY UNDER NEARLY CLOUDLESS
SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIREWEATHER ZONE 238..239 AND 242 REMAIN IN A RED FLAG WARNING
OUNTIL 1800 MDT. GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUEL CONDITIONS
TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GRADUAL RH
RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ238-239-242.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281935
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
135 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-03Z TODAY. TONIGHT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS
OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281935
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
135 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-03Z TODAY. TONIGHT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS
OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281935
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
135 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-03Z TODAY. TONIGHT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS
OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281935
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
135 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-03Z TODAY. TONIGHT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS
OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-03Z TODAY. TONIGHT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS
OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-03Z TODAY. TONIGHT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS
OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-03Z TODAY. TONIGHT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS
OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281709
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1109 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE RIDGE WAS BREAKING DOWN AS IT MOVED OVERHEAD THIS EARLY
MORNING UNDER PRESSURE FROM A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON-
OREGON. IN SPITE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY PRE-
FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 AS GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE AND DEEP MIXING BRINGS THEM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
TAIL OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
STALLING IN THE ABAJO-NW SAN JUAN MTNS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE MARGINAL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 0.4 INCH AND
700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY 3-4 G/KG. SO IT WILL TAKE THE ADDITION OF
LATE-DAY INSTABILITY TO SET OFF SHOWERS. THAT TOO IS MARGINAL
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE INTO THE EVENING.

EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY KEEP
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS GOING BEYOND SUNSET. CLOUD TOPS DO NOT APPEAR
TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING.

THE NEW AIR MASS IS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES. SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM THE
ABAJOS-SAN JUANS SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH...LOOK
TO BE ABOVE THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOPS AS 700MB TEMPS ARE 6 TO 8C.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ONE OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AND A
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY
PROJECTING THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SMALL AMPLITUDE
FEATURES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BIT MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT STARTS IT OFF WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND PRODUCING A BIT OF PRECIP OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE EC BARELY HINTS AT THIS
FEATURE.

A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE TRAVELS OVER THE AREA TUE...THEN TUE NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY A STRONG TROUGH IS PROJECTED INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD AS BOTH KEEP
MOST OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT BRING IN A STRONGER
WIND BAND. A GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE GFS. THU AFTERNOON AND FRI THE GFS
MOVES A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO. DURING THE
SAME PERIOD THE EC DIGS A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THEN PUSHES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THU AND FRIDAY...WITH NO
GOOD WAY TO TELL WHICH MODEL IS LEANING THE RIGHT WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AFTER 22Z AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND COLORADO CENTRAL MTNS. AT TIMES GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES KVEL KEGE
KASE BETWEEN 00Z- 04Z. ELSEWHERE KCAG KHDN KSBS COULD SEE
VRB15G35KT...AND BRIEFLY LOWERED CIGS WITH ISOLATED OR VICINITY
RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. MODERATE MTN TOP LEVEL TURBULENCE
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 04Z...STRONGEST NORTH. ERRATIC STRONG GUSTS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF AFTERNOON-EVENING BUILDUPS AND/OR
VIRGA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281709
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1109 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE RIDGE WAS BREAKING DOWN AS IT MOVED OVERHEAD THIS EARLY
MORNING UNDER PRESSURE FROM A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON-
OREGON. IN SPITE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY PRE-
FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 AS GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE AND DEEP MIXING BRINGS THEM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
TAIL OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
STALLING IN THE ABAJO-NW SAN JUAN MTNS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE MARGINAL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 0.4 INCH AND
700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY 3-4 G/KG. SO IT WILL TAKE THE ADDITION OF
LATE-DAY INSTABILITY TO SET OFF SHOWERS. THAT TOO IS MARGINAL
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE INTO THE EVENING.

EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY KEEP
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS GOING BEYOND SUNSET. CLOUD TOPS DO NOT APPEAR
TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING.

THE NEW AIR MASS IS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES. SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM THE
ABAJOS-SAN JUANS SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH...LOOK
TO BE ABOVE THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOPS AS 700MB TEMPS ARE 6 TO 8C.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ONE OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AND A
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY
PROJECTING THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SMALL AMPLITUDE
FEATURES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BIT MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT STARTS IT OFF WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND PRODUCING A BIT OF PRECIP OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE EC BARELY HINTS AT THIS
FEATURE.

A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE TRAVELS OVER THE AREA TUE...THEN TUE NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY A STRONG TROUGH IS PROJECTED INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD AS BOTH KEEP
MOST OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT BRING IN A STRONGER
WIND BAND. A GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE GFS. THU AFTERNOON AND FRI THE GFS
MOVES A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO. DURING THE
SAME PERIOD THE EC DIGS A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THEN PUSHES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THU AND FRIDAY...WITH NO
GOOD WAY TO TELL WHICH MODEL IS LEANING THE RIGHT WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AFTER 22Z AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND COLORADO CENTRAL MTNS. AT TIMES GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES KVEL KEGE
KASE BETWEEN 00Z- 04Z. ELSEWHERE KCAG KHDN KSBS COULD SEE
VRB15G35KT...AND BRIEFLY LOWERED CIGS WITH ISOLATED OR VICINITY
RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. MODERATE MTN TOP LEVEL TURBULENCE
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 04Z...STRONGEST NORTH. ERRATIC STRONG GUSTS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF AFTERNOON-EVENING BUILDUPS AND/OR
VIRGA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 281709
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1109 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE RIDGE WAS BREAKING DOWN AS IT MOVED OVERHEAD THIS EARLY
MORNING UNDER PRESSURE FROM A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON-
OREGON. IN SPITE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY PRE-
FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 AS GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE AND DEEP MIXING BRINGS THEM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
TAIL OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
STALLING IN THE ABAJO-NW SAN JUAN MTNS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE MARGINAL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 0.4 INCH AND
700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY 3-4 G/KG. SO IT WILL TAKE THE ADDITION OF
LATE-DAY INSTABILITY TO SET OFF SHOWERS. THAT TOO IS MARGINAL
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE INTO THE EVENING.

EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY KEEP
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS GOING BEYOND SUNSET. CLOUD TOPS DO NOT APPEAR
TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING.

THE NEW AIR MASS IS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES. SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM THE
ABAJOS-SAN JUANS SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH...LOOK
TO BE ABOVE THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOPS AS 700MB TEMPS ARE 6 TO 8C.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ONE OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AND A
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY
PROJECTING THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SMALL AMPLITUDE
FEATURES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BIT MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT STARTS IT OFF WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND PRODUCING A BIT OF PRECIP OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE EC BARELY HINTS AT THIS
FEATURE.

A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE TRAVELS OVER THE AREA TUE...THEN TUE NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY A STRONG TROUGH IS PROJECTED INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD AS BOTH KEEP
MOST OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT BRING IN A STRONGER
WIND BAND. A GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE GFS. THU AFTERNOON AND FRI THE GFS
MOVES A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO. DURING THE
SAME PERIOD THE EC DIGS A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THEN PUSHES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THU AND FRIDAY...WITH NO
GOOD WAY TO TELL WHICH MODEL IS LEANING THE RIGHT WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AFTER 22Z AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND COLORADO CENTRAL MTNS. AT TIMES GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES KVEL KEGE
KASE BETWEEN 00Z- 04Z. ELSEWHERE KCAG KHDN KSBS COULD SEE
VRB15G35KT...AND BRIEFLY LOWERED CIGS WITH ISOLATED OR VICINITY
RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. MODERATE MTN TOP LEVEL TURBULENCE
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 04Z...STRONGEST NORTH. ERRATIC STRONG GUSTS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF AFTERNOON-EVENING BUILDUPS AND/OR
VIRGA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 281709
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1109 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE RIDGE WAS BREAKING DOWN AS IT MOVED OVERHEAD THIS EARLY
MORNING UNDER PRESSURE FROM A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON-
OREGON. IN SPITE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY PRE-
FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 AS GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE AND DEEP MIXING BRINGS THEM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
TAIL OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
STALLING IN THE ABAJO-NW SAN JUAN MTNS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE MARGINAL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 0.4 INCH AND
700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY 3-4 G/KG. SO IT WILL TAKE THE ADDITION OF
LATE-DAY INSTABILITY TO SET OFF SHOWERS. THAT TOO IS MARGINAL
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE INTO THE EVENING.

EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY KEEP
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS GOING BEYOND SUNSET. CLOUD TOPS DO NOT APPEAR
TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING.

THE NEW AIR MASS IS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES. SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM THE
ABAJOS-SAN JUANS SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH...LOOK
TO BE ABOVE THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOPS AS 700MB TEMPS ARE 6 TO 8C.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ONE OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AND A
HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY
PROJECTING THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SMALL AMPLITUDE
FEATURES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BIT MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT STARTS IT OFF WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND PRODUCING A BIT OF PRECIP OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE EC BARELY HINTS AT THIS
FEATURE.

A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE TRAVELS OVER THE AREA TUE...THEN TUE NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY A STRONG TROUGH IS PROJECTED INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD AS BOTH KEEP
MOST OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT BRING IN A STRONGER
WIND BAND. A GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE GFS. THU AFTERNOON AND FRI THE GFS
MOVES A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO. DURING THE
SAME PERIOD THE EC DIGS A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THEN PUSHES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THU AND FRIDAY...WITH NO
GOOD WAY TO TELL WHICH MODEL IS LEANING THE RIGHT WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AFTER 22Z AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND COLORADO CENTRAL MTNS. AT TIMES GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES KVEL KEGE
KASE BETWEEN 00Z- 04Z. ELSEWHERE KCAG KHDN KSBS COULD SEE
VRB15G35KT...AND BRIEFLY LOWERED CIGS WITH ISOLATED OR VICINITY
RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. MODERATE MTN TOP LEVEL TURBULENCE
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 04Z...STRONGEST NORTH. ERRATIC STRONG GUSTS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF AFTERNOON-EVENING BUILDUPS AND/OR
VIRGA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 281623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1023 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WARMUP WELL UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ON
THE PLAINS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 14 DEGS F AHEAD OF THOSE 24
HOURS AGO. WARMUP NOT AS ROBUST IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ALTHOUGH
VALLEY TEMPS ARE RUNNING 4-10 DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. NOT A CLOUD ANYWHERE...BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH LONGER
BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY RESULTING
IN A SMATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE
ON THE CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AROUND MIDDAY ON THE PLAINS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER IN LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES. IT NOW APPEARS BASED ON NEW DATA COMING IN THAT
AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES ARE LIKELY ALSO TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME REASONS. THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A RED FLAG WARNING WHICH RUNS FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO STAY WESTERLY WITH MIXING OF WESTERLIES ALOFT
OVERWHELMING THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE TENDENCY AS PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOP NORTH OF US. WITH THE DRIER AIR HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWER
TODAY...INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER. MOST AREAS WILL NOT HAVE
ENOUGH WIND FOR A WARNING...BUT NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER IT WILL BE
WINDIER. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN LARIMER AND
NORTHERN WELD COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORST. THESE AREAS ALSO MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN A FEW NIGHTS AGO.
FOR THE FOOTHILLS...STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER...LESS WIND IN MOST AREAS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
FUEL MOISTURE SO NO WARNING THERE THOUGH THE LIVERMORE AREA WILL
HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS AREAS IN THE WARNING.

SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT DROPPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS COLORADO. NOT MUCH BEYOND A WIND SHIFT AND THE
COOLING...I DID HOLD ON TO VERY LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NOTHING. COOLED
TONIGHTS LOWS A LITTLE AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 15 DEGREES
OF COOLING WITH THE FRONT...AND TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH A WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DRIVE THE WIND. THE MDLS DO INDICATE SOME
MINIMAL QPF IN ZONES 34 AND 37 IN THE AFTN. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME INSTBY IN THE AFTN...MAYBE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
TSTM SO WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE THERE...OTHERWISE DRY. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON MONDAY WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT A BIT STRONGER. IN ADDITION...A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CO. BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH DOWNSLOPE NEGATING THE SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO BY TUESDAY. OVERALL...CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY
WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
A STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER COLORADO AS A
SYSTEM BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. A DECENT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS WELL. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. LIMITED
MOISTURE WL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA SO MAINLY DRY AND WINDY
WITH SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. COOLER AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE AREA AT THAT TIME...WITH THE ECMWF GENERATING A LITTLE MORE
QPF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 6-12KTS AT THE PRESENT TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT THE DENVER AREA
TERMINALS BY AROUND NOON TODAY. SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE...FIRST
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND THEN SPREAD OUT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE METRO AREA SUCH AS KAPA MAY
NOT SEE THESE WEST WINDS GUST AS HIGH. KBJC AND KDEN COULD SEE
GUSTS IN THE 18-22KT RANGE BETWEEN 19Z AND 24Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING...WIND SPEEDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT
TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS STILL ANTICIPATED NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIREWEATHER ZONE 239 ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR FIREWEATHER ZONES 238 AND 242 UP ALONG THE
WYOMING BORDER. THIS WARNING RUNS FROM 1200 TO 1800 MDT TODAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ238-239-242.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1023 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WARMUP WELL UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ON
THE PLAINS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 14 DEGS F AHEAD OF THOSE 24
HOURS AGO. WARMUP NOT AS ROBUST IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ALTHOUGH
VALLEY TEMPS ARE RUNNING 4-10 DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. NOT A CLOUD ANYWHERE...BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH LONGER
BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY RESULTING
IN A SMATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE
ON THE CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AROUND MIDDAY ON THE PLAINS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER IN LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES. IT NOW APPEARS BASED ON NEW DATA COMING IN THAT
AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES ARE LIKELY ALSO TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME REASONS. THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A RED FLAG WARNING WHICH RUNS FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO STAY WESTERLY WITH MIXING OF WESTERLIES ALOFT
OVERWHELMING THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE TENDENCY AS PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOP NORTH OF US. WITH THE DRIER AIR HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWER
TODAY...INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER. MOST AREAS WILL NOT HAVE
ENOUGH WIND FOR A WARNING...BUT NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER IT WILL BE
WINDIER. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN LARIMER AND
NORTHERN WELD COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORST. THESE AREAS ALSO MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN A FEW NIGHTS AGO.
FOR THE FOOTHILLS...STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER...LESS WIND IN MOST AREAS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
FUEL MOISTURE SO NO WARNING THERE THOUGH THE LIVERMORE AREA WILL
HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS AREAS IN THE WARNING.

SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT DROPPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS COLORADO. NOT MUCH BEYOND A WIND SHIFT AND THE
COOLING...I DID HOLD ON TO VERY LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NOTHING. COOLED
TONIGHTS LOWS A LITTLE AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 15 DEGREES
OF COOLING WITH THE FRONT...AND TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH A WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DRIVE THE WIND. THE MDLS DO INDICATE SOME
MINIMAL QPF IN ZONES 34 AND 37 IN THE AFTN. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME INSTBY IN THE AFTN...MAYBE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
TSTM SO WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE THERE...OTHERWISE DRY. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON MONDAY WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT A BIT STRONGER. IN ADDITION...A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CO. BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH DOWNSLOPE NEGATING THE SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO BY TUESDAY. OVERALL...CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY
WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
A STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER COLORADO AS A
SYSTEM BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. A DECENT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS WELL. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. LIMITED
MOISTURE WL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA SO MAINLY DRY AND WINDY
WITH SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. COOLER AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE AREA AT THAT TIME...WITH THE ECMWF GENERATING A LITTLE MORE
QPF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 6-12KTS AT THE PRESENT TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT THE DENVER AREA
TERMINALS BY AROUND NOON TODAY. SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE...FIRST
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND THEN SPREAD OUT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE METRO AREA SUCH AS KAPA MAY
NOT SEE THESE WEST WINDS GUST AS HIGH. KBJC AND KDEN COULD SEE
GUSTS IN THE 18-22KT RANGE BETWEEN 19Z AND 24Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING...WIND SPEEDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT
TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS STILL ANTICIPATED NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIREWEATHER ZONE 239 ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR FIREWEATHER ZONES 238 AND 242 UP ALONG THE
WYOMING BORDER. THIS WARNING RUNS FROM 1200 TO 1800 MDT TODAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ238-239-242.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 281623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1023 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WARMUP WELL UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ON
THE PLAINS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 14 DEGS F AHEAD OF THOSE 24
HOURS AGO. WARMUP NOT AS ROBUST IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ALTHOUGH
VALLEY TEMPS ARE RUNNING 4-10 DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. NOT A CLOUD ANYWHERE...BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH LONGER
BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY RESULTING
IN A SMATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE
ON THE CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AROUND MIDDAY ON THE PLAINS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER IN LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES. IT NOW APPEARS BASED ON NEW DATA COMING IN THAT
AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES ARE LIKELY ALSO TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME REASONS. THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A RED FLAG WARNING WHICH RUNS FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO STAY WESTERLY WITH MIXING OF WESTERLIES ALOFT
OVERWHELMING THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE TENDENCY AS PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOP NORTH OF US. WITH THE DRIER AIR HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWER
TODAY...INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER. MOST AREAS WILL NOT HAVE
ENOUGH WIND FOR A WARNING...BUT NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER IT WILL BE
WINDIER. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN LARIMER AND
NORTHERN WELD COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORST. THESE AREAS ALSO MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN A FEW NIGHTS AGO.
FOR THE FOOTHILLS...STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER...LESS WIND IN MOST AREAS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
FUEL MOISTURE SO NO WARNING THERE THOUGH THE LIVERMORE AREA WILL
HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS AREAS IN THE WARNING.

SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT DROPPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS COLORADO. NOT MUCH BEYOND A WIND SHIFT AND THE
COOLING...I DID HOLD ON TO VERY LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NOTHING. COOLED
TONIGHTS LOWS A LITTLE AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 15 DEGREES
OF COOLING WITH THE FRONT...AND TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH A WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DRIVE THE WIND. THE MDLS DO INDICATE SOME
MINIMAL QPF IN ZONES 34 AND 37 IN THE AFTN. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME INSTBY IN THE AFTN...MAYBE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
TSTM SO WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE THERE...OTHERWISE DRY. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON MONDAY WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT A BIT STRONGER. IN ADDITION...A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CO. BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH DOWNSLOPE NEGATING THE SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO BY TUESDAY. OVERALL...CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY
WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
A STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER COLORADO AS A
SYSTEM BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. A DECENT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS WELL. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. LIMITED
MOISTURE WL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA SO MAINLY DRY AND WINDY
WITH SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. COOLER AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE AREA AT THAT TIME...WITH THE ECMWF GENERATING A LITTLE MORE
QPF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 6-12KTS AT THE PRESENT TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT THE DENVER AREA
TERMINALS BY AROUND NOON TODAY. SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE...FIRST
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND THEN SPREAD OUT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE METRO AREA SUCH AS KAPA MAY
NOT SEE THESE WEST WINDS GUST AS HIGH. KBJC AND KDEN COULD SEE
GUSTS IN THE 18-22KT RANGE BETWEEN 19Z AND 24Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING...WIND SPEEDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT
TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS STILL ANTICIPATED NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIREWEATHER ZONE 239 ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR FIREWEATHER ZONES 238 AND 242 UP ALONG THE
WYOMING BORDER. THIS WARNING RUNS FROM 1200 TO 1800 MDT TODAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ238-239-242.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 281623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1023 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WARMUP WELL UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ON
THE PLAINS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 14 DEGS F AHEAD OF THOSE 24
HOURS AGO. WARMUP NOT AS ROBUST IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ALTHOUGH
VALLEY TEMPS ARE RUNNING 4-10 DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. NOT A CLOUD ANYWHERE...BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO MUCH LONGER
BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY RESULTING
IN A SMATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE
ON THE CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AROUND MIDDAY ON THE PLAINS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER IN LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES. IT NOW APPEARS BASED ON NEW DATA COMING IN THAT
AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES ARE LIKELY ALSO TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME REASONS. THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A RED FLAG WARNING WHICH RUNS FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO STAY WESTERLY WITH MIXING OF WESTERLIES ALOFT
OVERWHELMING THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE TENDENCY AS PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOP NORTH OF US. WITH THE DRIER AIR HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWER
TODAY...INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER. MOST AREAS WILL NOT HAVE
ENOUGH WIND FOR A WARNING...BUT NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER IT WILL BE
WINDIER. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN LARIMER AND
NORTHERN WELD COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORST. THESE AREAS ALSO MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN A FEW NIGHTS AGO.
FOR THE FOOTHILLS...STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER...LESS WIND IN MOST AREAS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
FUEL MOISTURE SO NO WARNING THERE THOUGH THE LIVERMORE AREA WILL
HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS AREAS IN THE WARNING.

SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT DROPPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS COLORADO. NOT MUCH BEYOND A WIND SHIFT AND THE
COOLING...I DID HOLD ON TO VERY LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NOTHING. COOLED
TONIGHTS LOWS A LITTLE AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 15 DEGREES
OF COOLING WITH THE FRONT...AND TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH A WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DRIVE THE WIND. THE MDLS DO INDICATE SOME
MINIMAL QPF IN ZONES 34 AND 37 IN THE AFTN. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME INSTBY IN THE AFTN...MAYBE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
TSTM SO WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE THERE...OTHERWISE DRY. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON MONDAY WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT A BIT STRONGER. IN ADDITION...A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CO. BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH DOWNSLOPE NEGATING THE SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO BY TUESDAY. OVERALL...CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY
WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
A STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER COLORADO AS A
SYSTEM BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. A DECENT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS WELL. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. LIMITED
MOISTURE WL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA SO MAINLY DRY AND WINDY
WITH SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
COLORADO ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. COOLER AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE AREA AT THAT TIME...WITH THE ECMWF GENERATING A LITTLE MORE
QPF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 6-12KTS AT THE PRESENT TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT THE DENVER AREA
TERMINALS BY AROUND NOON TODAY. SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE...FIRST
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND THEN SPREAD OUT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE METRO AREA SUCH AS KAPA MAY
NOT SEE THESE WEST WINDS GUST AS HIGH. KBJC AND KDEN COULD SEE
GUSTS IN THE 18-22KT RANGE BETWEEN 19Z AND 24Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING...WIND SPEEDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT
TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS STILL ANTICIPATED NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIREWEATHER ZONE 239 ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS IN BOULDER
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR FIREWEATHER ZONES 238 AND 242 UP ALONG THE
WYOMING BORDER. THIS WARNING RUNS FROM 1200 TO 1800 MDT TODAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ238-239-242.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281620
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AT COS AND PUB AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 281620
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AT COS AND PUB AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 281620
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AT COS AND PUB AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW




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