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000
FXUS65 KBOU 230345
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH FURTHER DRYING
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
THEREFORE...HIGH COUNTRY WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA. TWO
CONCERNS...HIGH WIND AND LIGHT SNOW. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS
ALREADY SHOWING THE MOISTURE SPREADING BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...ON SCHEDULE TO REACH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN BACK TOWARD THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND WARNINGS LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WINDS CLOSER TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR SO WILL LET THE BUFFER WATCH
AREA REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW TIL ALL 00Z DATA ARRIVES. EARLIER
SHIFT MENTIONED LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPING...HAVE MADE MINOR WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SO PALMER DIVIDE
WOULD HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN PLACE. IF AREAS SEE JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THEN COULD BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW/WHITEOUT CONDITIONS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. CURRENT HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND STATEMENTS ALREADY ADDRESS THIS WELL. ONLY
CHANGE WAS SLIGHT WESTWARD REVISION TO POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A 150 PLUS KNOT JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SNOW BANDS ACROSS COLORADO. STILL WIDESPREAD SNOW ONGOING
IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE JET. FAVORED
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SEEING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.
PROTECTED LOCATIONS ARE JUST SEEING LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THESE SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. A FEW AREAS WILL
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. IN GENERAL...ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES.

NEXT CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING
AREAS FROM SIDNEY TO LIMON MIXING 50 PLUS KNOT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE...SO LEFT A HIGH WATCH FOR THE WEST PART FOR THESE AREAS AND
UPGRADE THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. MOST
MODELS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE PLAINS. IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW COULD PRODUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS...THOUGH
STILL UNSURE IF ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL TO PRODUCE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS. MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH WAVE TRAIN MIGRATING ACROSS
THE CONUS HAS NERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SWIFT DECOUPLING OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BNDRY LAYER
RESULTING IN A EQUALLY FAST REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS.
AS WINDS DECREASE SO WILL SFC-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS DOWN FROM WYOMING...RESULTING IN CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE 3-4C LOWER THAN
THOSE THE NIGHT BEFORE.

WEDNESDAY...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ROCKY MTN
REGION DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN A 4-5C WARMUP ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. WINDS ALSO LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STRONG JET DRIVING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS SHOW THE RESULTANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING LOWER HEIGHTS AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS TROUGH.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL UTAH AT 18Z/THURSDAY AND A DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM SWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SAME FLOW ADVECTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WRN COLORADO AND
UP WEST FACING MTN SLOPES DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW.
MEANWHILE MODELS ALSO INDICATE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD AND
WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH OUT OF SERN WYOMING.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY POINTS TO A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FRONT RANGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS ON THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCATTERED ABOUT. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG CONCERN IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. LATER SHIFTS MAY FIND IT NECESSARY
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE STILL INFLUENCING THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW...
AND A FEW LIGHT MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THIS
TROUGH AND ITS WEATHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUPPOSEDLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE AND PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM
SWINGING DOWN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. AT MOST...COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING THE HIGH
COUNTRY... WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. THEN
NEXT THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. WILL MAINTAIN A VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAINLY
EXPECT VIRGA AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE TOWARD 10Z-13Z WITH GUSTS STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 35 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ038-041-043-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230345
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH FURTHER DRYING
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
THEREFORE...HIGH COUNTRY WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA. TWO
CONCERNS...HIGH WIND AND LIGHT SNOW. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS
ALREADY SHOWING THE MOISTURE SPREADING BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...ON SCHEDULE TO REACH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN BACK TOWARD THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND WARNINGS LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WINDS CLOSER TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR SO WILL LET THE BUFFER WATCH
AREA REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW TIL ALL 00Z DATA ARRIVES. EARLIER
SHIFT MENTIONED LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPING...HAVE MADE MINOR WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SO PALMER DIVIDE
WOULD HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN PLACE. IF AREAS SEE JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THEN COULD BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW/WHITEOUT CONDITIONS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. CURRENT HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND STATEMENTS ALREADY ADDRESS THIS WELL. ONLY
CHANGE WAS SLIGHT WESTWARD REVISION TO POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A 150 PLUS KNOT JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SNOW BANDS ACROSS COLORADO. STILL WIDESPREAD SNOW ONGOING
IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE JET. FAVORED
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SEEING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.
PROTECTED LOCATIONS ARE JUST SEEING LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THESE SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. A FEW AREAS WILL
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. IN GENERAL...ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES.

NEXT CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING
AREAS FROM SIDNEY TO LIMON MIXING 50 PLUS KNOT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE...SO LEFT A HIGH WATCH FOR THE WEST PART FOR THESE AREAS AND
UPGRADE THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. MOST
MODELS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE PLAINS. IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW COULD PRODUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS...THOUGH
STILL UNSURE IF ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL TO PRODUCE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS. MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH WAVE TRAIN MIGRATING ACROSS
THE CONUS HAS NERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SWIFT DECOUPLING OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BNDRY LAYER
RESULTING IN A EQUALLY FAST REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS.
AS WINDS DECREASE SO WILL SFC-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS DOWN FROM WYOMING...RESULTING IN CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE 3-4C LOWER THAN
THOSE THE NIGHT BEFORE.

WEDNESDAY...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ROCKY MTN
REGION DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN A 4-5C WARMUP ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. WINDS ALSO LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STRONG JET DRIVING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS SHOW THE RESULTANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING LOWER HEIGHTS AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS TROUGH.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL UTAH AT 18Z/THURSDAY AND A DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM SWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SAME FLOW ADVECTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WRN COLORADO AND
UP WEST FACING MTN SLOPES DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW.
MEANWHILE MODELS ALSO INDICATE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD AND
WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH OUT OF SERN WYOMING.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY POINTS TO A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FRONT RANGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS ON THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCATTERED ABOUT. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG CONCERN IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. LATER SHIFTS MAY FIND IT NECESSARY
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE STILL INFLUENCING THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW...
AND A FEW LIGHT MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THIS
TROUGH AND ITS WEATHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUPPOSEDLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE AND PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM
SWINGING DOWN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. AT MOST...COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING THE HIGH
COUNTRY... WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. THEN
NEXT THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. WILL MAINTAIN A VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAINLY
EXPECT VIRGA AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE TOWARD 10Z-13Z WITH GUSTS STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 35 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ038-041-043-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230345
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH FURTHER DRYING
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
THEREFORE...HIGH COUNTRY WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA. TWO
CONCERNS...HIGH WIND AND LIGHT SNOW. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS
ALREADY SHOWING THE MOISTURE SPREADING BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...ON SCHEDULE TO REACH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN BACK TOWARD THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND WARNINGS LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WINDS CLOSER TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR SO WILL LET THE BUFFER WATCH
AREA REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW TIL ALL 00Z DATA ARRIVES. EARLIER
SHIFT MENTIONED LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPING...HAVE MADE MINOR WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SO PALMER DIVIDE
WOULD HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN PLACE. IF AREAS SEE JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THEN COULD BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW/WHITEOUT CONDITIONS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. CURRENT HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND STATEMENTS ALREADY ADDRESS THIS WELL. ONLY
CHANGE WAS SLIGHT WESTWARD REVISION TO POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A 150 PLUS KNOT JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SNOW BANDS ACROSS COLORADO. STILL WIDESPREAD SNOW ONGOING
IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE JET. FAVORED
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SEEING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.
PROTECTED LOCATIONS ARE JUST SEEING LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THESE SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. A FEW AREAS WILL
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. IN GENERAL...ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES.

NEXT CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING
AREAS FROM SIDNEY TO LIMON MIXING 50 PLUS KNOT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE...SO LEFT A HIGH WATCH FOR THE WEST PART FOR THESE AREAS AND
UPGRADE THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. MOST
MODELS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE PLAINS. IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW COULD PRODUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS...THOUGH
STILL UNSURE IF ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL TO PRODUCE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS. MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH WAVE TRAIN MIGRATING ACROSS
THE CONUS HAS NERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SWIFT DECOUPLING OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BNDRY LAYER
RESULTING IN A EQUALLY FAST REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS.
AS WINDS DECREASE SO WILL SFC-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS DOWN FROM WYOMING...RESULTING IN CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE 3-4C LOWER THAN
THOSE THE NIGHT BEFORE.

WEDNESDAY...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ROCKY MTN
REGION DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN A 4-5C WARMUP ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. WINDS ALSO LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STRONG JET DRIVING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS SHOW THE RESULTANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING LOWER HEIGHTS AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS TROUGH.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL UTAH AT 18Z/THURSDAY AND A DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM SWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SAME FLOW ADVECTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WRN COLORADO AND
UP WEST FACING MTN SLOPES DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW.
MEANWHILE MODELS ALSO INDICATE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD AND
WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH OUT OF SERN WYOMING.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY POINTS TO A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FRONT RANGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS ON THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCATTERED ABOUT. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG CONCERN IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. LATER SHIFTS MAY FIND IT NECESSARY
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE STILL INFLUENCING THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW...
AND A FEW LIGHT MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THIS
TROUGH AND ITS WEATHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUPPOSEDLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE AND PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM
SWINGING DOWN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. AT MOST...COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING THE HIGH
COUNTRY... WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. THEN
NEXT THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. WILL MAINTAIN A VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAINLY
EXPECT VIRGA AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE TOWARD 10Z-13Z WITH GUSTS STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 35 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ038-041-043-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230345
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH FURTHER DRYING
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
THEREFORE...HIGH COUNTRY WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA. TWO
CONCERNS...HIGH WIND AND LIGHT SNOW. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS
ALREADY SHOWING THE MOISTURE SPREADING BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...ON SCHEDULE TO REACH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN BACK TOWARD THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND WARNINGS LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WINDS CLOSER TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR SO WILL LET THE BUFFER WATCH
AREA REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW TIL ALL 00Z DATA ARRIVES. EARLIER
SHIFT MENTIONED LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPING...HAVE MADE MINOR WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SO PALMER DIVIDE
WOULD HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN PLACE. IF AREAS SEE JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THEN COULD BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW/WHITEOUT CONDITIONS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. CURRENT HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND STATEMENTS ALREADY ADDRESS THIS WELL. ONLY
CHANGE WAS SLIGHT WESTWARD REVISION TO POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A 150 PLUS KNOT JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SNOW BANDS ACROSS COLORADO. STILL WIDESPREAD SNOW ONGOING
IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE JET. FAVORED
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SEEING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.
PROTECTED LOCATIONS ARE JUST SEEING LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THESE SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. A FEW AREAS WILL
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. IN GENERAL...ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES.

NEXT CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING
AREAS FROM SIDNEY TO LIMON MIXING 50 PLUS KNOT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE...SO LEFT A HIGH WATCH FOR THE WEST PART FOR THESE AREAS AND
UPGRADE THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. MOST
MODELS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE PLAINS. IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW COULD PRODUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS...THOUGH
STILL UNSURE IF ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL TO PRODUCE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS. MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH WAVE TRAIN MIGRATING ACROSS
THE CONUS HAS NERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SWIFT DECOUPLING OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BNDRY LAYER
RESULTING IN A EQUALLY FAST REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS.
AS WINDS DECREASE SO WILL SFC-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS DOWN FROM WYOMING...RESULTING IN CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE 3-4C LOWER THAN
THOSE THE NIGHT BEFORE.

WEDNESDAY...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ROCKY MTN
REGION DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN A 4-5C WARMUP ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. WINDS ALSO LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STRONG JET DRIVING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS SHOW THE RESULTANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING LOWER HEIGHTS AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS TROUGH.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL UTAH AT 18Z/THURSDAY AND A DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM SWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SAME FLOW ADVECTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WRN COLORADO AND
UP WEST FACING MTN SLOPES DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW.
MEANWHILE MODELS ALSO INDICATE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD AND
WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH OUT OF SERN WYOMING.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY POINTS TO A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FRONT RANGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS ON THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCATTERED ABOUT. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG CONCERN IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. LATER SHIFTS MAY FIND IT NECESSARY
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE STILL INFLUENCING THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW...
AND A FEW LIGHT MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THIS
TROUGH AND ITS WEATHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUPPOSEDLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE AND PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM
SWINGING DOWN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. AT MOST...COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING THE HIGH
COUNTRY... WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. THEN
NEXT THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. WILL MAINTAIN A VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAINLY
EXPECT VIRGA AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE TOWARD 10Z-13Z WITH GUSTS STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 35 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ038-041-043-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 230345
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH FURTHER DRYING
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
THEREFORE...HIGH COUNTRY WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA. TWO
CONCERNS...HIGH WIND AND LIGHT SNOW. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS
ALREADY SHOWING THE MOISTURE SPREADING BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...ON SCHEDULE TO REACH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN BACK TOWARD THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND WARNINGS LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WINDS CLOSER TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR SO WILL LET THE BUFFER WATCH
AREA REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW TIL ALL 00Z DATA ARRIVES. EARLIER
SHIFT MENTIONED LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPING...HAVE MADE MINOR WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SO PALMER DIVIDE
WOULD HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN PLACE. IF AREAS SEE JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THEN COULD BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW/WHITEOUT CONDITIONS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. CURRENT HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND STATEMENTS ALREADY ADDRESS THIS WELL. ONLY
CHANGE WAS SLIGHT WESTWARD REVISION TO POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A 150 PLUS KNOT JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SNOW BANDS ACROSS COLORADO. STILL WIDESPREAD SNOW ONGOING
IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE JET. FAVORED
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SEEING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.
PROTECTED LOCATIONS ARE JUST SEEING LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THESE SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. A FEW AREAS WILL
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. IN GENERAL...ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES.

NEXT CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING
AREAS FROM SIDNEY TO LIMON MIXING 50 PLUS KNOT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE...SO LEFT A HIGH WATCH FOR THE WEST PART FOR THESE AREAS AND
UPGRADE THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. MOST
MODELS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE PLAINS. IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW COULD PRODUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS...THOUGH
STILL UNSURE IF ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL TO PRODUCE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS. MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH WAVE TRAIN MIGRATING ACROSS
THE CONUS HAS NERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SWIFT DECOUPLING OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BNDRY LAYER
RESULTING IN A EQUALLY FAST REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS.
AS WINDS DECREASE SO WILL SFC-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS DOWN FROM WYOMING...RESULTING IN CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE 3-4C LOWER THAN
THOSE THE NIGHT BEFORE.

WEDNESDAY...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ROCKY MTN
REGION DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN A 4-5C WARMUP ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. WINDS ALSO LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STRONG JET DRIVING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS SHOW THE RESULTANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING LOWER HEIGHTS AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS TROUGH.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL UTAH AT 18Z/THURSDAY AND A DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM SWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SAME FLOW ADVECTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WRN COLORADO AND
UP WEST FACING MTN SLOPES DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW.
MEANWHILE MODELS ALSO INDICATE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD AND
WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH OUT OF SERN WYOMING.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY POINTS TO A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FRONT RANGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS ON THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCATTERED ABOUT. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG CONCERN IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. LATER SHIFTS MAY FIND IT NECESSARY
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE STILL INFLUENCING THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW...
AND A FEW LIGHT MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THIS
TROUGH AND ITS WEATHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUPPOSEDLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE AND PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM
SWINGING DOWN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. AT MOST...COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING THE HIGH
COUNTRY... WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. THEN
NEXT THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. WILL MAINTAIN A VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAINLY
EXPECT VIRGA AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE TOWARD 10Z-13Z WITH GUSTS STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 35 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ038-041-043-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 230345
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH FURTHER DRYING
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
THEREFORE...HIGH COUNTRY WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA. TWO
CONCERNS...HIGH WIND AND LIGHT SNOW. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS
ALREADY SHOWING THE MOISTURE SPREADING BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...ON SCHEDULE TO REACH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN BACK TOWARD THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND WARNINGS LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WINDS CLOSER TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR SO WILL LET THE BUFFER WATCH
AREA REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW TIL ALL 00Z DATA ARRIVES. EARLIER
SHIFT MENTIONED LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPING...HAVE MADE MINOR WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SO PALMER DIVIDE
WOULD HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN PLACE. IF AREAS SEE JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THEN COULD BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW/WHITEOUT CONDITIONS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. CURRENT HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND STATEMENTS ALREADY ADDRESS THIS WELL. ONLY
CHANGE WAS SLIGHT WESTWARD REVISION TO POPS...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A 150 PLUS KNOT JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SNOW BANDS ACROSS COLORADO. STILL WIDESPREAD SNOW ONGOING
IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE JET. FAVORED
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SEEING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.
PROTECTED LOCATIONS ARE JUST SEEING LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THESE SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. A FEW AREAS WILL
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. IN GENERAL...ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES.

NEXT CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING
AREAS FROM SIDNEY TO LIMON MIXING 50 PLUS KNOT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE...SO LEFT A HIGH WATCH FOR THE WEST PART FOR THESE AREAS AND
UPGRADE THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. MOST
MODELS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE PLAINS. IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW COULD PRODUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS...THOUGH
STILL UNSURE IF ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL TO PRODUCE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS. MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH WAVE TRAIN MIGRATING ACROSS
THE CONUS HAS NERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SWIFT DECOUPLING OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BNDRY LAYER
RESULTING IN A EQUALLY FAST REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS.
AS WINDS DECREASE SO WILL SFC-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS DOWN FROM WYOMING...RESULTING IN CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE 3-4C LOWER THAN
THOSE THE NIGHT BEFORE.

WEDNESDAY...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ROCKY MTN
REGION DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN A 4-5C WARMUP ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. WINDS ALSO LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STRONG JET DRIVING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS SHOW THE RESULTANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING LOWER HEIGHTS AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS TROUGH.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL UTAH AT 18Z/THURSDAY AND A DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM SWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SAME FLOW ADVECTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WRN COLORADO AND
UP WEST FACING MTN SLOPES DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW.
MEANWHILE MODELS ALSO INDICATE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD AND
WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH OUT OF SERN WYOMING.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY POINTS TO A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FRONT RANGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS ON THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCATTERED ABOUT. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG CONCERN IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. LATER SHIFTS MAY FIND IT NECESSARY
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE STILL INFLUENCING THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW...
AND A FEW LIGHT MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THIS
TROUGH AND ITS WEATHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUPPOSEDLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE AND PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM
SWINGING DOWN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. AT MOST...COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING THE HIGH
COUNTRY... WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. THEN
NEXT THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. WILL MAINTAIN A VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAINLY
EXPECT VIRGA AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE TOWARD 10Z-13Z WITH GUSTS STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 35 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ038-041-043-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGJT 230308
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
808 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

WINDS HAVE DROPPED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO FOLLOWING SUNSET THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO EXCEED 45 MPH. THEREFORE...ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SNOW HAD LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
AND ACROSS THE GRAND MESA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THEREFORE...ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNINGS EXPIRE FOR THOSE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW AND WIND WERE MORE PERSISTENT
SO WILL CONTINUE WSW/S AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO SO WILL KEEP
ADVISORIES GOING THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DARKENING OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER JET CORE MOVING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
HAS TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON GJX RADAR UNDERNEATH THE
JET. THE COLDER AIR IN WY HAS NOT REALLY MADE INROADS INTO WRN CO
AT THE SURFACE BUT MODELS SHOWED IT OCCURRING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE SHOWERY FROM THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER JET...A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL WAS OBSERVED AT THE GJT WEATHER
OFFICE FROM ONE OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THIS EVENING AS THE JET
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. BANDED NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
MORE VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN
PERSISTENT SNOW AND OTHERS PERHAPS SEEING LITTLE OR NONE.
CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS VALLEY
WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS STILL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPTED TO DO THE
SAME WITH THE GUNNISON ZONE 14 EXCEPT THAT A CDOT WEBCAM STILL
SHOWED SNOW AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS OVER CERRO SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE MOUNTAIN WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AND THE CORTEZ-
PAGOSA WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER AIR WAS
ADVECTING IN ONE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...SO THINK THE TREND OF
DECREASING SNOW OVERNIGHT IS STILL GOOD.

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW A 120KT TO 130KT UPPER JET STILL OVER WRN CO
TUE MORNING FOR STILL SOME WIND OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
SCATTERED SNOW MAINLY ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE WRN CO
MTNS. THE JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. ERN UT
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY ON TUE. THE CLEARING SKIES
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
STORM...WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY A LITTLE STRONGER. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...IT SHOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR
PRESENT STORM. HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SO FOR
NOW A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THESE VALLEYS REMAINS IFFY. HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS
WILL SEE FRESH ACCUMULATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MIDDLE
VALLEYS. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING.

MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE AS THE EC
SHOWS A COLD SECONDARY SHOT DROPPING IN AND REINFORCING THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THIS COLDER AIR AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY SNOWFALL THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND
ACTIVITY QUICKLY WINDING DOWN BY LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS ON CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TIMING/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND SHEAR BELOW MTN
TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO...THE AIR MASS UNDER THE JET HAS BEEN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES DUE
TO THE AFTERNOON MIXING AIDED BY THE CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL POSSIBLY 02-03Z IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO
35-45KT POSSIBLE AT SOME AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT
GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET
AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE KGUC...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
HEAVY RAIN...SNOW PELLETS OR SNOW MAY OCCUR UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

UT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230308
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
808 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

WINDS HAVE DROPPED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO FOLLOWING SUNSET THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO EXCEED 45 MPH. THEREFORE...ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SNOW HAD LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
AND ACROSS THE GRAND MESA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THEREFORE...ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNINGS EXPIRE FOR THOSE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW AND WIND WERE MORE PERSISTENT
SO WILL CONTINUE WSW/S AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO SO WILL KEEP
ADVISORIES GOING THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DARKENING OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER JET CORE MOVING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
HAS TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON GJX RADAR UNDERNEATH THE
JET. THE COLDER AIR IN WY HAS NOT REALLY MADE INROADS INTO WRN CO
AT THE SURFACE BUT MODELS SHOWED IT OCCURRING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE SHOWERY FROM THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER JET...A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL WAS OBSERVED AT THE GJT WEATHER
OFFICE FROM ONE OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THIS EVENING AS THE JET
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. BANDED NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
MORE VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN
PERSISTENT SNOW AND OTHERS PERHAPS SEEING LITTLE OR NONE.
CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS VALLEY
WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS STILL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPTED TO DO THE
SAME WITH THE GUNNISON ZONE 14 EXCEPT THAT A CDOT WEBCAM STILL
SHOWED SNOW AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS OVER CERRO SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE MOUNTAIN WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AND THE CORTEZ-
PAGOSA WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER AIR WAS
ADVECTING IN ONE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...SO THINK THE TREND OF
DECREASING SNOW OVERNIGHT IS STILL GOOD.

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW A 120KT TO 130KT UPPER JET STILL OVER WRN CO
TUE MORNING FOR STILL SOME WIND OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
SCATTERED SNOW MAINLY ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE WRN CO
MTNS. THE JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. ERN UT
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY ON TUE. THE CLEARING SKIES
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
STORM...WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY A LITTLE STRONGER. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...IT SHOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR
PRESENT STORM. HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SO FOR
NOW A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THESE VALLEYS REMAINS IFFY. HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS
WILL SEE FRESH ACCUMULATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MIDDLE
VALLEYS. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING.

MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE AS THE EC
SHOWS A COLD SECONDARY SHOT DROPPING IN AND REINFORCING THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THIS COLDER AIR AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY SNOWFALL THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND
ACTIVITY QUICKLY WINDING DOWN BY LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS ON CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TIMING/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND SHEAR BELOW MTN
TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO...THE AIR MASS UNDER THE JET HAS BEEN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES DUE
TO THE AFTERNOON MIXING AIDED BY THE CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL POSSIBLY 02-03Z IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO
35-45KT POSSIBLE AT SOME AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT
GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET
AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE KGUC...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
HEAVY RAIN...SNOW PELLETS OR SNOW MAY OCCUR UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

UT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPUB 230143
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
643 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS.
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW OVER SRN PUEBLO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND AFFECT THE LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY AREA AND RATON MESA...WHERE A SN ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. OTHER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH VC KCOS. EXPECT
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...BEOFRE A ANOTHER ROUND
HITS THE PALMER DVD EARLY ON TUE. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG WINDS FOR THE PLAINS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MON
AFTN...WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER JET DIGGING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW DOWN ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED
NUMEROUS SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WHERE SNOW DID FALL TEMPS STRUGGLED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 30S.
FURTHER EAST...TEMPS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

A NUMBER OF HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AND HAVE BEEN EXPLAINED IN PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSIONS
SO WILL NOT SPEND TOO MUCH TIME ON THAT. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN EJECT TO THE NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. WHILE DOING SO...A LOBE OF ENERGY WILL
ROTATE AROUND AND DOWN ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH INTO OK AND TX.

TONIGHT...SNOW FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND CONTDVD...WHILE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
SECONDARY PUSH FOR SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SINCE THAT
AREA RECEIVED NEARLY 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ALREADY THROUGH
TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE. LOOK
FOR A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FOR THE PLAINS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOMORROW...ALL THE MODELS ARE POINTING TO A HIGH WIND EVENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STARTING VERY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AROUND 4 AM. IT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THEN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY...THE
AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH ARE FORECAST...AND TRAVEL ALONG WEST-EAST ORIENTED
ROADS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THERE WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE PALMER DVD. NOT A LOT OF
SNOW...BUT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...TRAVEL THROUGH THE
MORNING TO AROUND NOON WILL BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY OVER MONUMENT
HILL. THEREFORE...CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL...FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
N EL PASO COUNTY. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW ARE NOT FORECAST TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 30S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD...

A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE LATE CHRISTMAS INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL BRING MORE BENEFICIAL SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BOTH HAVE
A CHANCE TO BRING PRECIP TO OTHER AREAS....INCLUDING THE PLAINS.

BY 00Z WED...6 PM TUESDAY...THE STORM THAT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
TO THE PLAINS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE
QUITE WINDY OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...BUT WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.
ANY PRECIP ON THE PLAINS SHOULD END BY 00Z. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MTNS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER NICE DAY. FCST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND WE
SHOULD SEE A LEE TROUGH SET UP AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP
INTO THE 40S AND L50S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN E FREMONT AND
W PUEBLO COUNTIES AS DOWNSLOPE OFF THE MTNS WARMS THING UP. 30S AND
40S WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS WITH 20S MTNS. IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS
THE REGION.

THU (XMAS)...

A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT WILL BE
RATHER MILD WITH 50S PLAINS AND 40S VALLEYS. GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON THE PLAINS. ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WE WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPS DROP RAPIDLY AND PRECIP IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP ON THE PLAINS APPEARS TO BE OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE...ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT N EL PASO
COUNTY MAY GET A FEW INCHES OR MORE CHRISTMAS NITE. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT ON THE PALMER DVD XMAS NITE DUE TO THE SNOW AND
WIND.

THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING. THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STRONGER...AND
THUS THE SW MTNS MAY SEE A 6 HOUR OR SO WINDOW OF SW WINDS WHICH
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE MOST SNOW...AND EXPECT LOW END
WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ACROSS THE SAWATCH RANGE. PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND VALLEYS XMAS
DAY INTO XMAS NITE.

FRIDAY...

HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS DAY. GFS HAS GENERALLY FLAT NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION WHILE EC HAS A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER AREA.
IF EC VERIFIES THEN WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MORE PRECIP OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION FRI...WHILE IF THE GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL BE DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE C MTNS. I SHOULD NOTE THAT A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE DO SHOW A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...I
LEANED MORE OF THE OPERATIONAL FCST TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE.

IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NO MATTER WHAT MODEL VERIFIES. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE AOA FREEZING ON THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S VALLEYS/MTNS.

SATURDAY...

DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40F
PLAINS...AND 20S VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH SNOW
INCREASING SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME GUIDANCE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHERS.
LIKEWISE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HRS...AS AN
UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM SLOWLY SLIDES EAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. LOOK
FOR IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS...SNOW AND
FOG FOR ALL AREAS SAVE FOR THE E PLAINS ALONG THE KS BORDER THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARD. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 11Z TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE PLAINS AND
LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH EFFECTED AREA DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093-
094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075-087-088.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 230143
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
643 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS.
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW OVER SRN PUEBLO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND AFFECT THE LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY AREA AND RATON MESA...WHERE A SN ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. OTHER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH VC KCOS. EXPECT
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...BEOFRE A ANOTHER ROUND
HITS THE PALMER DVD EARLY ON TUE. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG WINDS FOR THE PLAINS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MON
AFTN...WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER JET DIGGING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW DOWN ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED
NUMEROUS SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WHERE SNOW DID FALL TEMPS STRUGGLED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 30S.
FURTHER EAST...TEMPS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

A NUMBER OF HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AND HAVE BEEN EXPLAINED IN PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSIONS
SO WILL NOT SPEND TOO MUCH TIME ON THAT. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN EJECT TO THE NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. WHILE DOING SO...A LOBE OF ENERGY WILL
ROTATE AROUND AND DOWN ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH INTO OK AND TX.

TONIGHT...SNOW FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND CONTDVD...WHILE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
SECONDARY PUSH FOR SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SINCE THAT
AREA RECEIVED NEARLY 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ALREADY THROUGH
TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE. LOOK
FOR A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FOR THE PLAINS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOMORROW...ALL THE MODELS ARE POINTING TO A HIGH WIND EVENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STARTING VERY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AROUND 4 AM. IT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THEN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY...THE
AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH ARE FORECAST...AND TRAVEL ALONG WEST-EAST ORIENTED
ROADS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THERE WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE PALMER DVD. NOT A LOT OF
SNOW...BUT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...TRAVEL THROUGH THE
MORNING TO AROUND NOON WILL BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY OVER MONUMENT
HILL. THEREFORE...CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL...FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
N EL PASO COUNTY. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW ARE NOT FORECAST TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 30S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD...

A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE LATE CHRISTMAS INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL BRING MORE BENEFICIAL SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BOTH HAVE
A CHANCE TO BRING PRECIP TO OTHER AREAS....INCLUDING THE PLAINS.

BY 00Z WED...6 PM TUESDAY...THE STORM THAT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
TO THE PLAINS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE
QUITE WINDY OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...BUT WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.
ANY PRECIP ON THE PLAINS SHOULD END BY 00Z. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MTNS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER NICE DAY. FCST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND WE
SHOULD SEE A LEE TROUGH SET UP AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP
INTO THE 40S AND L50S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN E FREMONT AND
W PUEBLO COUNTIES AS DOWNSLOPE OFF THE MTNS WARMS THING UP. 30S AND
40S WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS WITH 20S MTNS. IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS
THE REGION.

THU (XMAS)...

A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT WILL BE
RATHER MILD WITH 50S PLAINS AND 40S VALLEYS. GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON THE PLAINS. ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WE WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPS DROP RAPIDLY AND PRECIP IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP ON THE PLAINS APPEARS TO BE OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE...ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT N EL PASO
COUNTY MAY GET A FEW INCHES OR MORE CHRISTMAS NITE. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT ON THE PALMER DVD XMAS NITE DUE TO THE SNOW AND
WIND.

THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING. THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STRONGER...AND
THUS THE SW MTNS MAY SEE A 6 HOUR OR SO WINDOW OF SW WINDS WHICH
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE MOST SNOW...AND EXPECT LOW END
WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ACROSS THE SAWATCH RANGE. PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND VALLEYS XMAS
DAY INTO XMAS NITE.

FRIDAY...

HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS DAY. GFS HAS GENERALLY FLAT NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION WHILE EC HAS A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER AREA.
IF EC VERIFIES THEN WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MORE PRECIP OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION FRI...WHILE IF THE GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL BE DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE C MTNS. I SHOULD NOTE THAT A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE DO SHOW A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...I
LEANED MORE OF THE OPERATIONAL FCST TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE.

IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NO MATTER WHAT MODEL VERIFIES. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE AOA FREEZING ON THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S VALLEYS/MTNS.

SATURDAY...

DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40F
PLAINS...AND 20S VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH SNOW
INCREASING SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME GUIDANCE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHERS.
LIKEWISE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HRS...AS AN
UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM SLOWLY SLIDES EAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. LOOK
FOR IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS...SNOW AND
FOG FOR ALL AREAS SAVE FOR THE E PLAINS ALONG THE KS BORDER THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARD. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 11Z TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE PLAINS AND
LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH EFFECTED AREA DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093-
094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075-087-088.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230108
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
608 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SNOW HAD LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
AND ACROSS THE GRAND MESA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THEREFORE...ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNINGS EXPIRE FOR THOSE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW AND WIND WERE MORE PERSISTENT
SO WILL CONTINUE WSW/S AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO SO WILL KEEP
ADVISORIES GOING THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DARKENING OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER JET CORE MOVING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
HAS TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON GJX RADAR UNDERNEATH THE
JET. THE COLDER AIR IN WY HAS NOT REALLY MADE INROADS INTO WRN CO
AT THE SURFACE BUT MODELS SHOWED IT OCCURRING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE SHOWERY FROM THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER JET...A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL WAS OBSERVED AT THE GJT WEATHER
OFFICE FROM ONE OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THIS EVENING AS THE JET
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. BANDED NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
MORE VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN
PERSISTENT SNOW AND OTHERS PERHAPS SEEING LITTLE OR NONE.
CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS VALLEY
WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS STILL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPTED TO DO THE
SAME WITH THE GUNNISON ZONE 14 EXCEPT THAT A CDOT WEBCAM STILL
SHOWED SNOW AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS OVER CERRO SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE MOUNTAIN WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AND THE CORTEZ-
PAGOSA WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER AIR WAS
ADVECTING IN ONE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...SO THINK THE TREND OF
DECREASING SNOW OVERNIGHT IS STILL GOOD.

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW A 120KT TO 130KT UPPER JET STILL OVER WRN CO
TUE MORNING FOR STILL SOME WIND OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
SCATTERED SNOW MAINLY ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE WRN CO
MTNS. THE JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. ERN UT
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY ON TUE. THE CLEARING SKIES
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
STORM...WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY A LITTLE STRONGER. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...IT SHOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR
PRESENT STORM. HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SO FOR
NOW A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THESE VALLEYS REMAINS IFFY. HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS
WILL SEE FRESH ACCUMULATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MIDDLE
VALLEYS. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING.

MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE AS THE EC
SHOWS A COLD SECONDARY SHOT DROPPING IN AND REINFORCING THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THIS COLDER AIR AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY SNOWFALL THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND
ACTIVITY QUICKLY WINDING DOWN BY LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS ON CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TIMING/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND SHEAR BELOW MTN
TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO...THE AIR MASS UNDER THE JET HAS BEEN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES DUE
TO THE AFTERNOON MIXING AIDED BY THE CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL POSSIBLY 02-03Z IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO
35-45KT POSSIBLE AT SOME AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT
GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET
AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE KGUC...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
HEAVY RAIN...SNOW PELLETS OR SNOW MAY OCCUR UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 230108
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
608 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SNOW HAD LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
AND ACROSS THE GRAND MESA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THEREFORE...ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNINGS EXPIRE FOR THOSE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW AND WIND WERE MORE PERSISTENT
SO WILL CONTINUE WSW/S AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO SO WILL KEEP
ADVISORIES GOING THERE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DARKENING OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER JET CORE MOVING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
HAS TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON GJX RADAR UNDERNEATH THE
JET. THE COLDER AIR IN WY HAS NOT REALLY MADE INROADS INTO WRN CO
AT THE SURFACE BUT MODELS SHOWED IT OCCURRING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE SHOWERY FROM THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER JET...A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL WAS OBSERVED AT THE GJT WEATHER
OFFICE FROM ONE OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THIS EVENING AS THE JET
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. BANDED NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
MORE VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN
PERSISTENT SNOW AND OTHERS PERHAPS SEEING LITTLE OR NONE.
CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS VALLEY
WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS STILL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPTED TO DO THE
SAME WITH THE GUNNISON ZONE 14 EXCEPT THAT A CDOT WEBCAM STILL
SHOWED SNOW AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS OVER CERRO SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE MOUNTAIN WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AND THE CORTEZ-
PAGOSA WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER AIR WAS
ADVECTING IN ONE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...SO THINK THE TREND OF
DECREASING SNOW OVERNIGHT IS STILL GOOD.

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW A 120KT TO 130KT UPPER JET STILL OVER WRN CO
TUE MORNING FOR STILL SOME WIND OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
SCATTERED SNOW MAINLY ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE WRN CO
MTNS. THE JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. ERN UT
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY ON TUE. THE CLEARING SKIES
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
STORM...WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY A LITTLE STRONGER. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...IT SHOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR
PRESENT STORM. HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SO FOR
NOW A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THESE VALLEYS REMAINS IFFY. HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS
WILL SEE FRESH ACCUMULATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MIDDLE
VALLEYS. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING.

MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE AS THE EC
SHOWS A COLD SECONDARY SHOT DROPPING IN AND REINFORCING THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THIS COLDER AIR AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY SNOWFALL THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND
ACTIVITY QUICKLY WINDING DOWN BY LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS ON CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TIMING/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND SHEAR BELOW MTN
TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO...THE AIR MASS UNDER THE JET HAS BEEN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES DUE
TO THE AFTERNOON MIXING AIDED BY THE CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL POSSIBLY 02-03Z IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO
35-45KT POSSIBLE AT SOME AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT
GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET
AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE KGUC...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
HEAVY RAIN...SNOW PELLETS OR SNOW MAY OCCUR UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222243
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DARKENING OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER JET CORE MOVING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
HAS TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON GJX RADAR UNDERNEATH THE
JET. THE COLDER AIR IN WY HAS NOT REALLY MADE INROADS INTO WRN CO
AT THE SURFACE BUT MODELS SHOWED IT OCCURRING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE SHOWERY FROM THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER JET...A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL WAS OBSERVED AT THE GJT WEATHER
OFFICE FROM ONE OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THIS EVENING AS THE JET
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. BANDED NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
MORE VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN
PERSISTENT SNOW AND OTHERS PERHAPS SEEING LITTLE OR NONE.
CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS VALLEY
WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS STILL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPTED TO DO THE
SAME WITH THE GUNNISON ZONE 14 EXCEPT THAT A CDOT WEBCAM STILL
SHOWED SNOW AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS OVER CERRO SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE MOUNTAIN WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AND THE CORTEZ-
PAGOSA WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER AIR WAS
ADVECTING IN ONE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...SO THINK THE TREND OF
DECREASING SNOW OVERNIGHT IS STILL GOOD.

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW A 120KT TO 130KT UPPER JET STILL OVER WRN CO
TUE MORNING FOR STILL SOME WIND OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
SCATTERED SNOW MAINLY ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE WRN CO
MTNS. THE JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. ERN UT
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY ON TUE. THE CLEARING SKIES
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
STORM...WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY A LITTLE STRONGER. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...IT SHOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR
PRESENT STORM. HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SO FOR
NOW A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THESE VALLEYS REMAINS IFFY. HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS
WILL SEE FRESH ACCUMULATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MIDDLE
VALLEYS. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING.

MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE AS THE EC
SHOWS A COLD SECONDARY SHOT DROPPING IN AND REINFORCING THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THIS COLDER AIR AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY SNOWFALL THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND
ACTIVITY QUICKLY WINDING DOWN BY LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS ON CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TIMING/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND SHEAR BELOW MTN
TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO...THE AIR MASS UNDER THE JET HAS BEEN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES DUE
TO THE AFTERNOON MIXING AIDED BY THE CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL POSSIBLY 02-03Z IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO
35-45KT POSSIBLE AT SOME AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT
GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET
AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE KGUC...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
HEAVY RAIN...SNOW PELLETS OR SNOW MAY OCCUR UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222243
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DARKENING OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER JET CORE MOVING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
HAS TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON GJX RADAR UNDERNEATH THE
JET. THE COLDER AIR IN WY HAS NOT REALLY MADE INROADS INTO WRN CO
AT THE SURFACE BUT MODELS SHOWED IT OCCURRING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE SHOWERY FROM THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER JET...A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL WAS OBSERVED AT THE GJT WEATHER
OFFICE FROM ONE OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THIS EVENING AS THE JET
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. BANDED NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
MORE VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN
PERSISTENT SNOW AND OTHERS PERHAPS SEEING LITTLE OR NONE.
CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS VALLEY
WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS STILL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPTED TO DO THE
SAME WITH THE GUNNISON ZONE 14 EXCEPT THAT A CDOT WEBCAM STILL
SHOWED SNOW AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS OVER CERRO SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE MOUNTAIN WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AND THE CORTEZ-
PAGOSA WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER AIR WAS
ADVECTING IN ONE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...SO THINK THE TREND OF
DECREASING SNOW OVERNIGHT IS STILL GOOD.

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW A 120KT TO 130KT UPPER JET STILL OVER WRN CO
TUE MORNING FOR STILL SOME WIND OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
SCATTERED SNOW MAINLY ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE WRN CO
MTNS. THE JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. ERN UT
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY ON TUE. THE CLEARING SKIES
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
STORM...WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY A LITTLE STRONGER. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...IT SHOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR
PRESENT STORM. HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SO FOR
NOW A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THESE VALLEYS REMAINS IFFY. HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS
WILL SEE FRESH ACCUMULATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MIDDLE
VALLEYS. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING.

MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE AS THE EC
SHOWS A COLD SECONDARY SHOT DROPPING IN AND REINFORCING THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THIS COLDER AIR AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY SNOWFALL THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND
ACTIVITY QUICKLY WINDING DOWN BY LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS ON CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TIMING/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND SHEAR BELOW MTN
TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO...THE AIR MASS UNDER THE JET HAS BEEN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES DUE
TO THE AFTERNOON MIXING AIDED BY THE CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL POSSIBLY 02-03Z IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO
35-45KT POSSIBLE AT SOME AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT
GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET
AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE KGUC...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
HEAVY RAIN...SNOW PELLETS OR SNOW MAY OCCUR UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222243
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DARKENING OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER JET CORE MOVING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
HAS TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON GJX RADAR UNDERNEATH THE
JET. THE COLDER AIR IN WY HAS NOT REALLY MADE INROADS INTO WRN CO
AT THE SURFACE BUT MODELS SHOWED IT OCCURRING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE SHOWERY FROM THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER JET...A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL WAS OBSERVED AT THE GJT WEATHER
OFFICE FROM ONE OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THIS EVENING AS THE JET
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. BANDED NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
MORE VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN
PERSISTENT SNOW AND OTHERS PERHAPS SEEING LITTLE OR NONE.
CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS VALLEY
WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS STILL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPTED TO DO THE
SAME WITH THE GUNNISON ZONE 14 EXCEPT THAT A CDOT WEBCAM STILL
SHOWED SNOW AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS OVER CERRO SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE MOUNTAIN WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AND THE CORTEZ-
PAGOSA WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER AIR WAS
ADVECTING IN ONE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...SO THINK THE TREND OF
DECREASING SNOW OVERNIGHT IS STILL GOOD.

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW A 120KT TO 130KT UPPER JET STILL OVER WRN CO
TUE MORNING FOR STILL SOME WIND OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
SCATTERED SNOW MAINLY ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE WRN CO
MTNS. THE JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. ERN UT
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY ON TUE. THE CLEARING SKIES
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
STORM...WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY A LITTLE STRONGER. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...IT SHOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR
PRESENT STORM. HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SO FOR
NOW A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THESE VALLEYS REMAINS IFFY. HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS
WILL SEE FRESH ACCUMULATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MIDDLE
VALLEYS. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING.

MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE AS THE EC
SHOWS A COLD SECONDARY SHOT DROPPING IN AND REINFORCING THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THIS COLDER AIR AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY SNOWFALL THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND
ACTIVITY QUICKLY WINDING DOWN BY LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS ON CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TIMING/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND SHEAR BELOW MTN
TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO...THE AIR MASS UNDER THE JET HAS BEEN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES DUE
TO THE AFTERNOON MIXING AIDED BY THE CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL POSSIBLY 02-03Z IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO
35-45KT POSSIBLE AT SOME AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT
GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET
AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE KGUC...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
HEAVY RAIN...SNOW PELLETS OR SNOW MAY OCCUR UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222243
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DARKENING OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER JET CORE MOVING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
HAS TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON GJX RADAR UNDERNEATH THE
JET. THE COLDER AIR IN WY HAS NOT REALLY MADE INROADS INTO WRN CO
AT THE SURFACE BUT MODELS SHOWED IT OCCURRING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE SHOWERY FROM THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER JET...A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL WAS OBSERVED AT THE GJT WEATHER
OFFICE FROM ONE OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THIS EVENING AS THE JET
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. BANDED NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
MORE VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN
PERSISTENT SNOW AND OTHERS PERHAPS SEEING LITTLE OR NONE.
CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS VALLEY
WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS STILL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPTED TO DO THE
SAME WITH THE GUNNISON ZONE 14 EXCEPT THAT A CDOT WEBCAM STILL
SHOWED SNOW AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS OVER CERRO SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT THE MOUNTAIN WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AND THE CORTEZ-
PAGOSA WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER AIR WAS
ADVECTING IN ONE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...SO THINK THE TREND OF
DECREASING SNOW OVERNIGHT IS STILL GOOD.

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW A 120KT TO 130KT UPPER JET STILL OVER WRN CO
TUE MORNING FOR STILL SOME WIND OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
SCATTERED SNOW MAINLY ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE WRN CO
MTNS. THE JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST. ERN UT
SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY ON TUE. THE CLEARING SKIES
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL THEN DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
STORM...WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY A LITTLE STRONGER. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...IT SHOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR
PRESENT STORM. HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SO FOR
NOW A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THESE VALLEYS REMAINS IFFY. HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS
WILL SEE FRESH ACCUMULATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MIDDLE
VALLEYS. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING.

MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE AS THE EC
SHOWS A COLD SECONDARY SHOT DROPPING IN AND REINFORCING THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THIS COLDER AIR AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY SNOWFALL THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND
ACTIVITY QUICKLY WINDING DOWN BY LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS ON CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER TIMING/STRENGTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND SHEAR BELOW MTN
TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST...BUT WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALSO...THE AIR MASS UNDER THE JET HAS BEEN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES DUE
TO THE AFTERNOON MIXING AIDED BY THE CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL POSSIBLY 02-03Z IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO
35-45KT POSSIBLE AT SOME AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT
GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET
AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE KGUC...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
HEAVY RAIN...SNOW PELLETS OR SNOW MAY OCCUR UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 222204
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
304 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG WINDS FOR THE PLAINS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MON
AFTN...WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER JET DIGGING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW DOWN ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED
NUMEROUS SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WHERE SNOW DID FALL TEMPS STRUGGLED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 30S.
FURTHER EAST...TEMPS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

A NUMBER OF HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AND HAVE BEEN EXPLAINED IN PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSIONS
SO WILL NOT SPEND TOO MUCH TIME ON THAT. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN EJECT TO THE NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. WHILE DOING SO...A LOBE OF ENERGY WILL
ROTATE AROUND AND DOWN ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH INTO OK AND TX.

TONIGHT...SNOW FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND CONTDVD...WHILE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
SECONDARY PUSH FOR SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SINCE THAT
AREA RECEIVED NEARLY 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ALREADY THROUGH
TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE. LOOK
FOR A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FOR THE PLAINS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOMORROW...ALL THE MODELS ARE POINTING TO A HIGH WIND EVENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STARTING VERY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AROUND 4 AM. IT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THEN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY...THE
AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH ARE FORECAST...AND TRAVEL ALONG WEST-EAST ORIENTED
ROADS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THERE WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE PALMER DVD. NOT A LOT OF
SNOW...BUT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...TRAVEL THROUGH THE
MORNING TO AROUND NOON WILL BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY OVER MONUMENT
HILL. THEREFORE...CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL...FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
N EL PASO COUNTY. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW ARE NOT FORECAST TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 30S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD...

A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE LATE CHRISTMAS INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL BRING MORE BENEFICIAL SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BOTH HAVE
A CHANCE TO BRING PRECIP TO OTHER AREAS....INCLUDING THE PLAINS.

BY 00Z WED...6 PM TUESDAY...THE STORM THAT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
TO THE PLAINS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE
QUITE WINDY OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...BUT WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.
ANY PRECIP ON THE PLAINS SHOULD END BY 00Z. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MTNS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER NICE DAY. FCST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND WE
SHOULD SEE A LEE TROUGH SET UP AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP
INTO THE 40S AND L50S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN E FREMONT AND
W PUEBLO COUNTIES AS DOWNSLOPE OFF THE MTNS WARMS THING UP. 30S AND
40S WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS WITH 20S MTNS. IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS
THE REGION.

THU (XMAS)...

A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT WILL BE
RATHER MILD WITH 50S PLAINS AND 40S VALLEYS. GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON THE PLAINS. ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WE WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPS DROP RAPIDLY AND PRECIP IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP ON THE PLAINS APPEARS TO BE OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE...ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT N EL PASO
COUNTY MAY GET A FEW INCHES OR MORE CHRISTMAS NITE. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT ON THE PALMER DVD XMAS NITE DUE TO THE SNOW AND
WIND.

THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING. THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STRONGER...AND
THUS THE SW MTNS MAY SEE A 6 HOUR OR SO WINDOW OF SW WINDS WHICH
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE MOST SNOW...AND EXPECT LOW END
WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ACROSS THE SAWATCH RANGE. PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND VALLEYS XMAS
DAY INTO XMAS NITE.

FRIDAY...

HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS DAY. GFS HAS GENERALLY FLAT NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION WHILE EC HAS A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER AREA.
IF EC VERIFIES THEN WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MORE PRECIP OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION FRI...WHILE IF THE GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL BE DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE C MTNS. I SHOULD NOTE THAT A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE DO SHOW A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...I
LEANED MORE OF THE OPERATIONAL FCST TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE.

IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NO MATTER WHAT MODEL VERIFIES. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE AOA FREEZING ON THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S VALLEYS/MTNS.

SATURDAY...

DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40F
PLAINS...AND 20S VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH SNOW
INCREASING SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME GUIDANCE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHERS.
LIKEWISE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HRS...AS AN
UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM SLOWLY SLIDES EAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. LOOK
FOR IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS...SNOW AND
FOG FOR ALL AREAS SAVE FOR THE E PLAINS ALONG THE KS BORDER THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARD. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 11Z TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE PLAINS AND
LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH EFFECTED AREA DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093-
094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075-087-088.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085-086.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 222204
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
304 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG WINDS FOR THE PLAINS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MON
AFTN...WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER JET DIGGING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW DOWN ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED
NUMEROUS SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WHERE SNOW DID FALL TEMPS STRUGGLED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 30S.
FURTHER EAST...TEMPS WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

A NUMBER OF HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AND HAVE BEEN EXPLAINED IN PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSIONS
SO WILL NOT SPEND TOO MUCH TIME ON THAT. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN EJECT TO THE NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. WHILE DOING SO...A LOBE OF ENERGY WILL
ROTATE AROUND AND DOWN ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH INTO OK AND TX.

TONIGHT...SNOW FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SLIDE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND CONTDVD...WHILE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
SECONDARY PUSH FOR SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SINCE THAT
AREA RECEIVED NEARLY 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ALREADY THROUGH
TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE. LOOK
FOR A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FOR THE PLAINS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOMORROW...ALL THE MODELS ARE POINTING TO A HIGH WIND EVENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STARTING VERY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...AROUND 4 AM. IT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THEN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY...THE
AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH ARE FORECAST...AND TRAVEL ALONG WEST-EAST ORIENTED
ROADS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THERE WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE PALMER DVD. NOT A LOT OF
SNOW...BUT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...TRAVEL THROUGH THE
MORNING TO AROUND NOON WILL BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY OVER MONUMENT
HILL. THEREFORE...CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL...FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
N EL PASO COUNTY. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW ARE NOT FORECAST TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 30S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD...

A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE LATE CHRISTMAS INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL BRING MORE BENEFICIAL SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BOTH HAVE
A CHANCE TO BRING PRECIP TO OTHER AREAS....INCLUDING THE PLAINS.

BY 00Z WED...6 PM TUESDAY...THE STORM THAT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
TO THE PLAINS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE
QUITE WINDY OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...BUT WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.
ANY PRECIP ON THE PLAINS SHOULD END BY 00Z. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MTNS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER NICE DAY. FCST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND WE
SHOULD SEE A LEE TROUGH SET UP AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP
INTO THE 40S AND L50S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN E FREMONT AND
W PUEBLO COUNTIES AS DOWNSLOPE OFF THE MTNS WARMS THING UP. 30S AND
40S WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS WITH 20S MTNS. IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS
THE REGION.

THU (XMAS)...

A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT WILL BE
RATHER MILD WITH 50S PLAINS AND 40S VALLEYS. GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON THE PLAINS. ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WE WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPS DROP RAPIDLY AND PRECIP IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP ON THE PLAINS APPEARS TO BE OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE...ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT N EL PASO
COUNTY MAY GET A FEW INCHES OR MORE CHRISTMAS NITE. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT ON THE PALMER DVD XMAS NITE DUE TO THE SNOW AND
WIND.

THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING. THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STRONGER...AND
THUS THE SW MTNS MAY SEE A 6 HOUR OR SO WINDOW OF SW WINDS WHICH
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE MOST SNOW...AND EXPECT LOW END
WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ACROSS THE SAWATCH RANGE. PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND VALLEYS XMAS
DAY INTO XMAS NITE.

FRIDAY...

HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS DAY. GFS HAS GENERALLY FLAT NW
FLOW OVER THE REGION WHILE EC HAS A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER AREA.
IF EC VERIFIES THEN WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MORE PRECIP OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION FRI...WHILE IF THE GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL BE DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE C MTNS. I SHOULD NOTE THAT A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE DO SHOW A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...I
LEANED MORE OF THE OPERATIONAL FCST TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE.

IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NO MATTER WHAT MODEL VERIFIES. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE AOA FREEZING ON THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S VALLEYS/MTNS.

SATURDAY...

DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40F
PLAINS...AND 20S VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH SNOW
INCREASING SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME GUIDANCE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHERS.
LIKEWISE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HRS...AS AN
UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM SLOWLY SLIDES EAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. LOOK
FOR IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS...SNOW AND
FOG FOR ALL AREAS SAVE FOR THE E PLAINS ALONG THE KS BORDER THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARD. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 11Z TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE PLAINS AND
LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH EFFECTED AREA DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093-
094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ074-
075-087-088.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085-086.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 222200
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A 150 PLUS KNOT JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SNOW BANDS ACROSS COLORADO. STILL WIDESPREAD SNOW ONGOING
IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE JET. FAVORED
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SEEING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.
PROTECTED LOCATIONS ARE JUST SEEING LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THESE SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. A FEW AREAS WILL
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. IN GENERAL...ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES.

NEXT CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING
AREAS FROM SIDNEY TO LIMON MIXING 50 PLUS KNOT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE...SO LEFT A HIGH WATCH FOR THE WEST PART FOR THESE AREAS AND
UPGRADE THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. MOST
MODELS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE PLAINS. IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW COULD PRODUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS...THOUGH
STILL UNSURE IF ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL TO PRODUCE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS. MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH WAVE TRAIN MIGRATING ACROSS
THE CONUS HAS NERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SWIFT DECOUPLING OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BNDRY LAYER
RESULTING IN A EQUALLY FAST REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS.
AS WINDS DECREASE SO WILL SFC-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS DOWN FROM WYOMING...RESULTING IN CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE 3-4C LOWER THAN
THOSE THE NIGHT BEFORE.

WEDNESDAY...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ROCKY MTN
REGION DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN A 4-5C WARMUP ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. WINDS ALSO LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STRONG JET DRIVING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS SHOW THE RESULTANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING LOWER HEIGHTS AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS TROUGH.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL UTAH AT 18Z/THURSDAY AND A DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM SWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SAME FLOW ADVECTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WRN COLORADO AND
UP WEST FACING MTN SLOPES DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW.
MEANWHILE MODELS ALSO INDICATE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD AND
WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH OUT OF SERN WYOMING.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY POINTS TO A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FRONT RANGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS ON THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCATTERED ABOUT. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG CONCERN IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. LATER SHIFTS MAY FIND IT NECESSARY
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE STILL INFLUENCING THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW...
AND A FEW LIGHT MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THIS
TROUGH AND ITS WEATHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUPPOSEDLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE AND PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM
SWINGING DOWN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. AT MOST...COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING THE HIGH
COUNTRY... WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SNOW BANDS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 00Z AT KDEN...AND UP TO 02Z AT
KBJC AND KAPA. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 2000
FEET WITH A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY.

NORTHERLY WINDS MAY DECREASE BETWEEN 00-06Z...BUT WILL THEN INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KDEN FROM 08Z TO 18Z.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW AT KDEN AFTER 08Z...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 2 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ038-041-043-045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 222200
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A 150 PLUS KNOT JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SNOW BANDS ACROSS COLORADO. STILL WIDESPREAD SNOW ONGOING
IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE JET. FAVORED
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SEEING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.
PROTECTED LOCATIONS ARE JUST SEEING LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THESE SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. A FEW AREAS WILL
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. IN GENERAL...ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES.

NEXT CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING
AREAS FROM SIDNEY TO LIMON MIXING 50 PLUS KNOT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE...SO LEFT A HIGH WATCH FOR THE WEST PART FOR THESE AREAS AND
UPGRADE THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. MOST
MODELS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE PLAINS. IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW COULD PRODUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS...THOUGH
STILL UNSURE IF ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL TO PRODUCE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS. MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 3
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH WAVE TRAIN MIGRATING ACROSS
THE CONUS HAS NERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SWIFT DECOUPLING OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BNDRY LAYER
RESULTING IN A EQUALLY FAST REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS.
AS WINDS DECREASE SO WILL SFC-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS DOWN FROM WYOMING...RESULTING IN CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE 3-4C LOWER THAN
THOSE THE NIGHT BEFORE.

WEDNESDAY...WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ROCKY MTN
REGION DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN A 4-5C WARMUP ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. WINDS ALSO LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO. UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STRONG JET DRIVING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS SHOW THE RESULTANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING LOWER HEIGHTS AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS TROUGH.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL UTAH AT 18Z/THURSDAY AND A DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM SWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SAME FLOW ADVECTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WRN COLORADO AND
UP WEST FACING MTN SLOPES DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW.
MEANWHILE MODELS ALSO INDICATE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD AND
WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH OUT OF SERN WYOMING.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY POINTS TO A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FRONT RANGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS ON THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCATTERED ABOUT. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES WITH ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG CONCERN IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. LATER SHIFTS MAY FIND IT NECESSARY
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE STILL INFLUENCING THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS NOW...
AND A FEW LIGHT MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THIS
TROUGH AND ITS WEATHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUPPOSEDLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE AND PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM
SWINGING DOWN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. AT MOST...COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING THE HIGH
COUNTRY... WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SNOW BANDS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 00Z AT KDEN...AND UP TO 02Z AT
KBJC AND KAPA. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 2000
FEET WITH A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY.

NORTHERLY WINDS MAY DECREASE BETWEEN 00-06Z...BUT WILL THEN INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KDEN FROM 08Z TO 18Z.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW AT KDEN AFTER 08Z...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 2 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ038-041-043-045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 222052
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
152 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 142 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES THIS AFTN THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. BANDS OF SNOW HAVE PERSISTED IN THAT AREA ALL DAY...WITH
REPORTS OF 3-4 INCHES. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO DECIDED TO UPGARDE THE HIGH
WIND WATCH AND WINTER STORM WATCH TO WARNINGS. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN ALL POINT TO A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...ADD A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH NEW HIGHLIGHTS DEALING WITH WIND AND WINTER
STORM POSSIBILITIES FOR THE PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FOR KALS...THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE SLV FLOOR THROUGH 00Z...THEN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE VALLEY. THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BETWEEN 12-15Z.

FOR KCOS AND KPUB...AND FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNTIL 00Z...THEN ISOLATED
SNOW WITH IFR CLOUD DECK AND VSBY 00-06Z. FOR THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS...IN THE VICINITY OF KTAD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 10Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AT 11Z AND
LASTING THROUGH TUE AFTN. MOORE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ089-093-
094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT FOR COZ074-075-087-088.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085-086.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222023
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
123 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CO ZONE 2 (CRAIG MEEKER HAYDEN
AREAS) AND CO ZONE 7 (I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH RIFLE). TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THIS SECTION OF I-70
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NW CO. RADAR INDICATING
THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS TAKING ON MORE SHOWERY AND BANDED
CHARACTIERISTICS AS THE STRONG JET CORE NEAR THE AREA. SO WHILE
HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A BAND...NO LONGER EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SIGNFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE TWO ZONES.

GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE UPPER JET ALONG WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTH  OF THE
BLACK CANYON OF THE GUNNISON...WITH A STRONGER CELL JUST NORTH OF
GRAND JUNCTION PRODUCED HAIL AT THE WEATHER OFFICE. UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN UT AND MUCH
OF WRN CO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CO AT 10 AM AND APPEARED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIFUSE COLD FRONT AT 700 MB UNDERNEATH THE NOSE OF A
STRONG 300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME
RAIN AT RIFLE... GRAND JCT...NUCLA..DELTA AND CORTEZ WITH SNOW
OVER THE MTNS. COLDER AIR OVER WY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
EVENING AS THE 170 KTS UPPER JET CORE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE COLDER AIR HAVING
LESS MOISTURE CONTENT...BELIEVE THIS SECONDARY COLD PUSH COUPLED
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET CORE SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH NOT MUCH SNOW APPARENT AT THE MOMENT IN THE NW CO VALLEYS
AND ALONG THE MUCH OF THE I-70 WEST OF GLENWOOD SPGS.

CAIC REMOTE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 60-100
MPH ABOVE 11000 FT OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SENSORS ELSEWHERE IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING ARE MUCH LESS. VISIBLE SATELLITE WAS SHOWING
TIGHT WAVENESS IN THE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN UT INTO WRN CO AND
OFTEN INDICATIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL
KEEP THE BLIZZARD WARNING INTACT THOUGH THINK AREAL COVERAGE DOWN
TO 8000 FT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CO VALLEYS AS EXPECT
WIND AND WIND GUSTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE COURSE OF AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF COLDER AIR AND AIDED BY
DAYTIME MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A COMPLICATED WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW WITH THE
BEST FORCING OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

THE JET STREAM IS ORIENTED NNW-SSE IN WESTERN COLORADO BUT
ENHANCES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 140KTS ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SPATIALLY COMPLICATED
WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS INHIBITING MIXING AT TIMES BUT SHOWERS
TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES TOO. ALREADY THIS
EARLY MORNING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG
HIGHWAY 550 BETWEEN OURAY AND RED MTN PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 80 TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET TO CAPTURE
DOUGLAS PASS ALSO. FURTHER NORTH HIGHWAY 191 THROUGH THE EASTERN
UINTAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING
UNDER THE JET. THE FAR EASTERN MTNS CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALSO HAVE WIND GUSTS BUT MORE IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH
RANGE.

AS FOR SNOW...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE
DEEPEST ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNAL SSE TO DURANGO. WEST
OF THAT LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL HELP TO STIR THE LOWER LEVELS AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES UP TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET. THE
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEYS EVEN AS SNOW SHOWERS
SHIFT EAST. ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE THAT WILL BE UNDER DUE
NORTH MTN TOPS WINDS AT 20KTS WITH 700MB TEMPS DOWN TO THE
EFFICIENT -12C. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS IN DETAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHUFFLES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE VALLEYS. TIMING OF THE WAVE
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY
EVENT UNTIL WE START WRAPPING UP THE CURRENT STORM. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM
DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER HAS DEFINITELY ARRIVED
ON THE WEST SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK FLOW AT OVER 140
KTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND
SHEAR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 35-55KT POSSIBLE
AT AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ005-008-
     009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222023
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
123 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CO ZONE 2 (CRAIG MEEKER HAYDEN
AREAS) AND CO ZONE 7 (I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH RIFLE). TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THIS SECTION OF I-70
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NW CO. RADAR INDICATING
THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS TAKING ON MORE SHOWERY AND BANDED
CHARACTIERISTICS AS THE STRONG JET CORE NEAR THE AREA. SO WHILE
HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A BAND...NO LONGER EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SIGNFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE TWO ZONES.

GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE UPPER JET ALONG WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTH  OF THE
BLACK CANYON OF THE GUNNISON...WITH A STRONGER CELL JUST NORTH OF
GRAND JUNCTION PRODUCED HAIL AT THE WEATHER OFFICE. UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN UT AND MUCH
OF WRN CO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CO AT 10 AM AND APPEARED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIFUSE COLD FRONT AT 700 MB UNDERNEATH THE NOSE OF A
STRONG 300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME
RAIN AT RIFLE... GRAND JCT...NUCLA..DELTA AND CORTEZ WITH SNOW
OVER THE MTNS. COLDER AIR OVER WY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
EVENING AS THE 170 KTS UPPER JET CORE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE COLDER AIR HAVING
LESS MOISTURE CONTENT...BELIEVE THIS SECONDARY COLD PUSH COUPLED
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET CORE SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH NOT MUCH SNOW APPARENT AT THE MOMENT IN THE NW CO VALLEYS
AND ALONG THE MUCH OF THE I-70 WEST OF GLENWOOD SPGS.

CAIC REMOTE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 60-100
MPH ABOVE 11000 FT OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SENSORS ELSEWHERE IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING ARE MUCH LESS. VISIBLE SATELLITE WAS SHOWING
TIGHT WAVENESS IN THE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN UT INTO WRN CO AND
OFTEN INDICATIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL
KEEP THE BLIZZARD WARNING INTACT THOUGH THINK AREAL COVERAGE DOWN
TO 8000 FT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CO VALLEYS AS EXPECT
WIND AND WIND GUSTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE COURSE OF AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF COLDER AIR AND AIDED BY
DAYTIME MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A COMPLICATED WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW WITH THE
BEST FORCING OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

THE JET STREAM IS ORIENTED NNW-SSE IN WESTERN COLORADO BUT
ENHANCES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 140KTS ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SPATIALLY COMPLICATED
WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS INHIBITING MIXING AT TIMES BUT SHOWERS
TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES TOO. ALREADY THIS
EARLY MORNING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG
HIGHWAY 550 BETWEEN OURAY AND RED MTN PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 80 TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET TO CAPTURE
DOUGLAS PASS ALSO. FURTHER NORTH HIGHWAY 191 THROUGH THE EASTERN
UINTAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING
UNDER THE JET. THE FAR EASTERN MTNS CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALSO HAVE WIND GUSTS BUT MORE IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH
RANGE.

AS FOR SNOW...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE
DEEPEST ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNAL SSE TO DURANGO. WEST
OF THAT LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL HELP TO STIR THE LOWER LEVELS AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES UP TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET. THE
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEYS EVEN AS SNOW SHOWERS
SHIFT EAST. ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE THAT WILL BE UNDER DUE
NORTH MTN TOPS WINDS AT 20KTS WITH 700MB TEMPS DOWN TO THE
EFFICIENT -12C. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS IN DETAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHUFFLES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE VALLEYS. TIMING OF THE WAVE
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY
EVENT UNTIL WE START WRAPPING UP THE CURRENT STORM. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM
DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER HAS DEFINITELY ARRIVED
ON THE WEST SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK FLOW AT OVER 140
KTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND
SHEAR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 35-55KT POSSIBLE
AT AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ005-008-
     009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222023
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
123 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CO ZONE 2 (CRAIG MEEKER HAYDEN
AREAS) AND CO ZONE 7 (I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH RIFLE). TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THIS SECTION OF I-70
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NW CO. RADAR INDICATING
THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS TAKING ON MORE SHOWERY AND BANDED
CHARACTIERISTICS AS THE STRONG JET CORE NEAR THE AREA. SO WHILE
HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A BAND...NO LONGER EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SIGNFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE TWO ZONES.

GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE UPPER JET ALONG WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTH  OF THE
BLACK CANYON OF THE GUNNISON...WITH A STRONGER CELL JUST NORTH OF
GRAND JUNCTION PRODUCED HAIL AT THE WEATHER OFFICE. UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN UT AND MUCH
OF WRN CO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CO AT 10 AM AND APPEARED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIFUSE COLD FRONT AT 700 MB UNDERNEATH THE NOSE OF A
STRONG 300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME
RAIN AT RIFLE... GRAND JCT...NUCLA..DELTA AND CORTEZ WITH SNOW
OVER THE MTNS. COLDER AIR OVER WY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
EVENING AS THE 170 KTS UPPER JET CORE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE COLDER AIR HAVING
LESS MOISTURE CONTENT...BELIEVE THIS SECONDARY COLD PUSH COUPLED
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET CORE SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH NOT MUCH SNOW APPARENT AT THE MOMENT IN THE NW CO VALLEYS
AND ALONG THE MUCH OF THE I-70 WEST OF GLENWOOD SPGS.

CAIC REMOTE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 60-100
MPH ABOVE 11000 FT OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SENSORS ELSEWHERE IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING ARE MUCH LESS. VISIBLE SATELLITE WAS SHOWING
TIGHT WAVENESS IN THE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN UT INTO WRN CO AND
OFTEN INDICATIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL
KEEP THE BLIZZARD WARNING INTACT THOUGH THINK AREAL COVERAGE DOWN
TO 8000 FT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CO VALLEYS AS EXPECT
WIND AND WIND GUSTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE COURSE OF AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF COLDER AIR AND AIDED BY
DAYTIME MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A COMPLICATED WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW WITH THE
BEST FORCING OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

THE JET STREAM IS ORIENTED NNW-SSE IN WESTERN COLORADO BUT
ENHANCES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 140KTS ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SPATIALLY COMPLICATED
WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS INHIBITING MIXING AT TIMES BUT SHOWERS
TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES TOO. ALREADY THIS
EARLY MORNING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG
HIGHWAY 550 BETWEEN OURAY AND RED MTN PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 80 TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET TO CAPTURE
DOUGLAS PASS ALSO. FURTHER NORTH HIGHWAY 191 THROUGH THE EASTERN
UINTAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING
UNDER THE JET. THE FAR EASTERN MTNS CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALSO HAVE WIND GUSTS BUT MORE IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH
RANGE.

AS FOR SNOW...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE
DEEPEST ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNAL SSE TO DURANGO. WEST
OF THAT LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL HELP TO STIR THE LOWER LEVELS AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES UP TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET. THE
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEYS EVEN AS SNOW SHOWERS
SHIFT EAST. ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE THAT WILL BE UNDER DUE
NORTH MTN TOPS WINDS AT 20KTS WITH 700MB TEMPS DOWN TO THE
EFFICIENT -12C. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS IN DETAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHUFFLES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE VALLEYS. TIMING OF THE WAVE
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY
EVENT UNTIL WE START WRAPPING UP THE CURRENT STORM. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM
DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER HAS DEFINITELY ARRIVED
ON THE WEST SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK FLOW AT OVER 140
KTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND
SHEAR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 35-55KT POSSIBLE
AT AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ005-008-
     009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222023
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
123 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

CANCELED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CO ZONE 2 (CRAIG MEEKER HAYDEN
AREAS) AND CO ZONE 7 (I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH RIFLE). TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THIS SECTION OF I-70
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NW CO. RADAR INDICATING
THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS TAKING ON MORE SHOWERY AND BANDED
CHARACTIERISTICS AS THE STRONG JET CORE NEAR THE AREA. SO WHILE
HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A BAND...NO LONGER EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SIGNFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE TWO ZONES.

GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE UPPER JET ALONG WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTH  OF THE
BLACK CANYON OF THE GUNNISON...WITH A STRONGER CELL JUST NORTH OF
GRAND JUNCTION PRODUCED HAIL AT THE WEATHER OFFICE. UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN UT AND MUCH
OF WRN CO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CO AT 10 AM AND APPEARED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIFUSE COLD FRONT AT 700 MB UNDERNEATH THE NOSE OF A
STRONG 300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME
RAIN AT RIFLE... GRAND JCT...NUCLA..DELTA AND CORTEZ WITH SNOW
OVER THE MTNS. COLDER AIR OVER WY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
EVENING AS THE 170 KTS UPPER JET CORE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE COLDER AIR HAVING
LESS MOISTURE CONTENT...BELIEVE THIS SECONDARY COLD PUSH COUPLED
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET CORE SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH NOT MUCH SNOW APPARENT AT THE MOMENT IN THE NW CO VALLEYS
AND ALONG THE MUCH OF THE I-70 WEST OF GLENWOOD SPGS.

CAIC REMOTE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 60-100
MPH ABOVE 11000 FT OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SENSORS ELSEWHERE IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING ARE MUCH LESS. VISIBLE SATELLITE WAS SHOWING
TIGHT WAVENESS IN THE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN UT INTO WRN CO AND
OFTEN INDICATIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL
KEEP THE BLIZZARD WARNING INTACT THOUGH THINK AREAL COVERAGE DOWN
TO 8000 FT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CO VALLEYS AS EXPECT
WIND AND WIND GUSTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE COURSE OF AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF COLDER AIR AND AIDED BY
DAYTIME MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A COMPLICATED WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW WITH THE
BEST FORCING OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

THE JET STREAM IS ORIENTED NNW-SSE IN WESTERN COLORADO BUT
ENHANCES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 140KTS ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SPATIALLY COMPLICATED
WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS INHIBITING MIXING AT TIMES BUT SHOWERS
TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES TOO. ALREADY THIS
EARLY MORNING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG
HIGHWAY 550 BETWEEN OURAY AND RED MTN PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 80 TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET TO CAPTURE
DOUGLAS PASS ALSO. FURTHER NORTH HIGHWAY 191 THROUGH THE EASTERN
UINTAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING
UNDER THE JET. THE FAR EASTERN MTNS CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALSO HAVE WIND GUSTS BUT MORE IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH
RANGE.

AS FOR SNOW...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE
DEEPEST ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNAL SSE TO DURANGO. WEST
OF THAT LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL HELP TO STIR THE LOWER LEVELS AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES UP TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET. THE
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEYS EVEN AS SNOW SHOWERS
SHIFT EAST. ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE THAT WILL BE UNDER DUE
NORTH MTN TOPS WINDS AT 20KTS WITH 700MB TEMPS DOWN TO THE
EFFICIENT -12C. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS IN DETAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHUFFLES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE VALLEYS. TIMING OF THE WAVE
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY
EVENT UNTIL WE START WRAPPING UP THE CURRENT STORM. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM
DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER HAS DEFINITELY ARRIVED
ON THE WEST SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK FLOW AT OVER 140
KTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND
SHEAR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 35-55KT POSSIBLE
AT AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ005-008-
     009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-010-
     012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221746
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1046 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN ALL POINT TO A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...ADD A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH NEW HIGHLIGHTS DEALING WITH WIND AND WINTER
STORM POSSIBILITIES FOR THE PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FOR KALS...THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE SLV FLOOR THROUGH 00Z...THEN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE VALLEY. THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BETWEEN 12-15Z.

FOR KCOS AND KPUB...AND FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNTIL 00Z...THEN ISOLATED
SNOW WITH IFR CLOUD DECK AND VSBY 00-06Z. FOR THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS...IN THE VICINITY OF KTAD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 10Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AT 11Z AND
LASTING THROUGH TUE AFTN. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ089-093-094.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ084.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221746
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1046 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN ALL POINT TO A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...ADD A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH NEW HIGHLIGHTS DEALING WITH WIND AND WINTER
STORM POSSIBILITIES FOR THE PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FOR KALS...THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE SLV FLOOR THROUGH 00Z...THEN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE VALLEY. THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BETWEEN 12-15Z.

FOR KCOS AND KPUB...AND FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNTIL 00Z...THEN ISOLATED
SNOW WITH IFR CLOUD DECK AND VSBY 00-06Z. FOR THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS...IN THE VICINITY OF KTAD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 10Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AT 11Z AND
LASTING THROUGH TUE AFTN. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ089-093-094.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ084.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221746
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1046 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN ALL POINT TO A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...ADD A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH NEW HIGHLIGHTS DEALING WITH WIND AND WINTER
STORM POSSIBILITIES FOR THE PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FOR KALS...THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE SLV FLOOR THROUGH 00Z...THEN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE VALLEY. THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BETWEEN 12-15Z.

FOR KCOS AND KPUB...AND FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNTIL 00Z...THEN ISOLATED
SNOW WITH IFR CLOUD DECK AND VSBY 00-06Z. FOR THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS...IN THE VICINITY OF KTAD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 10Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AT 11Z AND
LASTING THROUGH TUE AFTN. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ089-093-094.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ084.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221746
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1046 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN ALL POINT TO A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...ADD A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH NEW HIGHLIGHTS DEALING WITH WIND AND WINTER
STORM POSSIBILITIES FOR THE PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FOR KALS...THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE SLV FLOOR THROUGH 00Z...THEN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE VALLEY. THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BETWEEN 12-15Z.

FOR KCOS AND KPUB...AND FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNTIL 00Z...THEN ISOLATED
SNOW WITH IFR CLOUD DECK AND VSBY 00-06Z. FOR THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS...IN THE VICINITY OF KTAD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 10Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AT 11Z AND
LASTING THROUGH TUE AFTN. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ089-093-094.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ084.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221742
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1042 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CO AT 10 AM AND APPEARED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIFUSE COLD FRONT AT 700 MB UNDERNEATH THE NOSE OF A
STRONG 300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME
RAIN AT RIFLE... GRAND JCT...NUCLA..DELTA AND CORTEZ WITH SNOW
OVER THE MTNS. COLDER AIR OVER WY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
EVENING AS THE 170 KTS UPPER JET CORE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE COLDER AIR HAVING
LESS MOISTURE CONTENT...BELIEVE THIS SECONDARY COLD PUSH COUPLED
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET CORE SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH NOT MUCH SNOW APPARENT AT THE MOMENT IN THE NW CO VALLEYS
AND ALONG THE MUCH OF THE I-70 WEST OF GLENWOOD SPGS.

CAIC REMOTE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 60-100
MPH ABOVE 11000 FT OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SENSORS ELSEWHERE IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING ARE MUCH LESS. VISIBLE SATELLITE WAS SHOWING
TIGHT WAVENESS IN THE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN UT INTO WRN CO AND
OFTEN INDICATIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL
KEEP THE BLIZZARD WARNING INTACT THOUGH THINK AREAL COVERAGE DOWN
TO 8000 FT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CO VALLEYS AS EXPECT
WIND AND WIND GUSTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE COURSE OF AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF COLDER AIR AND AIDED BY
DAYTIME MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A COMPLICATED WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW WITH THE
BEST FORCING OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

THE JET STREAM IS ORIENTED NNW-SSE IN WESTERN COLORADO BUT
ENHANCES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 140KTS ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SPATIALLY COMPLICATED
WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS INHIBITING MIXING AT TIMES BUT SHOWERS
TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES TOO. ALREADY THIS
EARLY MORNING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG
HIGHWAY 550 BETWEEN OURAY AND RED MTN PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 80 TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET TO CAPTURE
DOUGLAS PASS ALSO. FURTHER NORTH HIGHWAY 191 THROUGH THE EASTERN
UINTAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING
UNDER THE JET. THE FAR EASTERN MTNS CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALSO HAVE WIND GUSTS BUT MORE IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH
RANGE.

AS FOR SNOW...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE
DEEPEST ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNAL SSE TO DURANGO. WEST
OF THAT LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL HELP TO STIR THE LOWER LEVELS AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES UP TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET. THE
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEYS EVEN AS SNOW SHOWERS
SHIFT EAST. ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE THAT WILL BE UNDER DUE
NORTH MTN TOPS WINDS AT 20KTS WITH 700MB TEMPS DOWN TO THE
EFFICIENT -12C. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS IN DETAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHUFFLES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE VALLEYS. TIMING OF THE WAVE
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY
EVENT UNTIL WE START WRAPPING UP THE CURRENT STORM. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM
DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER HAS DEFINITELY ARRIVED
ON THE WEST SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK FLOW AT OVER 140
KTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND
SHEAR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 35-55KT POSSIBLE
AT AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ005-
     007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ002-004-
     010-012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221742
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1042 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CO AT 10 AM AND APPEARED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIFUSE COLD FRONT AT 700 MB UNDERNEATH THE NOSE OF A
STRONG 300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. TEMPS WERE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME
RAIN AT RIFLE... GRAND JCT...NUCLA..DELTA AND CORTEZ WITH SNOW
OVER THE MTNS. COLDER AIR OVER WY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
EVENING AS THE 170 KTS UPPER JET CORE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE COLDER AIR HAVING
LESS MOISTURE CONTENT...BELIEVE THIS SECONDARY COLD PUSH COUPLED
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET CORE SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
THOUGH NOT MUCH SNOW APPARENT AT THE MOMENT IN THE NW CO VALLEYS
AND ALONG THE MUCH OF THE I-70 WEST OF GLENWOOD SPGS.

CAIC REMOTE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 60-100
MPH ABOVE 11000 FT OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SENSORS ELSEWHERE IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING ARE MUCH LESS. VISIBLE SATELLITE WAS SHOWING
TIGHT WAVENESS IN THE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN UT INTO WRN CO AND
OFTEN INDICATIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL
KEEP THE BLIZZARD WARNING INTACT THOUGH THINK AREAL COVERAGE DOWN
TO 8000 FT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CO VALLEYS AS EXPECT
WIND AND WIND GUSTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE COURSE OF AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF COLDER AIR AND AIDED BY
DAYTIME MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A COMPLICATED WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW WITH THE
BEST FORCING OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

THE JET STREAM IS ORIENTED NNW-SSE IN WESTERN COLORADO BUT
ENHANCES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 140KTS ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SPATIALLY COMPLICATED
WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS INHIBITING MIXING AT TIMES BUT SHOWERS
TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES TOO. ALREADY THIS
EARLY MORNING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG
HIGHWAY 550 BETWEEN OURAY AND RED MTN PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 80 TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET TO CAPTURE
DOUGLAS PASS ALSO. FURTHER NORTH HIGHWAY 191 THROUGH THE EASTERN
UINTAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING
UNDER THE JET. THE FAR EASTERN MTNS CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALSO HAVE WIND GUSTS BUT MORE IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH
RANGE.

AS FOR SNOW...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE
DEEPEST ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNAL SSE TO DURANGO. WEST
OF THAT LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL HELP TO STIR THE LOWER LEVELS AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES UP TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET. THE
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEYS EVEN AS SNOW SHOWERS
SHIFT EAST. ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE THAT WILL BE UNDER DUE
NORTH MTN TOPS WINDS AT 20KTS WITH 700MB TEMPS DOWN TO THE
EFFICIENT -12C. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS IN DETAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHUFFLES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE VALLEYS. TIMING OF THE WAVE
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY
EVENT UNTIL WE START WRAPPING UP THE CURRENT STORM. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM
DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER HAS DEFINITELY ARRIVED
ON THE WEST SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK FLOW AT OVER 140
KTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND
SHEAR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 35-55KT POSSIBLE
AT AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ005-
     007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ002-004-
     010-012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 221704
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1004 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIMIT WARMING TODAY...SO DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. WARMEST LOCATION WILL BE IN THE FORT COLLINS AND
GREELEY AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE THE WARMEST READINGS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WEB CAMERAS AND
RADAR STILL SHOW SNOW FALLING IN MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND UGLY
CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER PASSES. WILL LEAVE THE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. MODELS STARTING TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS WOULD PRODUCE HARSH DRIVING AND POSSIBLY
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WILL TRY AND PIN DOWN WHERE THE GREAT CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL BE AND MAY NEED TO GO WITH SOME SORT OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE BLOWING SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE LATEST GRIDS. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO NORTHERLY AS UPPER CYCLONE HEADS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THIS FLOW FIELD TO
KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT OF THE SNOW GOING IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY DESPITE ANY STRONG QG ASCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE MOUNTAIN HIGHLIGHT AS IS. THE 07Z EXPIRATION TIME
APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS EVENING.

A FEW SNOW BANDS ARE PRESENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT 10Z AND
THIS SCENARIO OF OCCASIONAL SNOW BANDS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE OFF
AND ON TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOW PATTERN. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER ONES COULD PROVIDE A QUICK DUMP OF PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE PALMER DIVIDE
COULD BE AN EXCEPTION TO THIS. THE MODELS SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER TONIGHT AS A BLOB OF QG
ASCENT WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS
CYCLONE. WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OUT
THERE...CONDITIONS COULD GET A BIT DICEY FOR A TIME LATE IN THE
PERIOD. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
GREAT SO NO HIGHLIGHT FOR THAT IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

STG NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON TUE.  MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS HOWEVER ENOUGH WILL LINGER AT MTN
TOP FOR -SHSN ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  OVER NERN CO WITH
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD AND SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS IN THE
MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PLAINS.  IN
ADDITION BNDRY LYR WINDS AROUND 50 KTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO
THE SFC WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THRU EARLY AFTN SO WILL
ISSUE A WATCH FM THE WY-NE BORDER SOUTH TOWARDS LIMON. AS FOR
HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN
CO.

ON WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW WITH ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS.  MEANWHILE SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DVLP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASING BY AFTN.  THUS WILL
SEE WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER
TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
WLY. THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF MTN WAVE AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 KTS.  BY THU AFTN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF -SHSN BY AFTN. OVER
NERN CO IT LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AND MILD FOR THU AFTN WITH HIGHS IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE. BY LATE AFTN AS MID LVL QG ASCENT
INCREASES THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NERN
CO.

FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THU NIGHT WITH A GOOD SHOT OF MID LVL QG ASCENT AS A CDFNT
MOVES INTO NERN CO EARLY THU EVENING WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AS
A SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OVER SERN CO. AS A RESULT THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHC OF SNOW FM THE MTNS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER NERN CO WITH A BORA TYPE FNT MOVING ACROSS
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN THE
MTNS AND OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  AT THIS TIME ITS STILL NOT CLEAR
HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS OVER NERN CO FOR THU NIGHT.

FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF OROGRAPHIC
SNOW. OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW WITH HIGHS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON
SAT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS NERN CO.  BY
SUN THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH A CDFNT.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SNOW IN THE
MTNS WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW OVER NERN CO AS HIGHS STAY
IN THE 30S. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN US WHICH KEEPS THE FLOW SWLY ON SUNDAY.  THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A LOWER CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH NO PCPN OVER NERN CO
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WOULD STILL STAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN THE DENVER AREA. THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY DROP
CEILINGS TO 4000 FEET FOR A SHORT TIME. WIND FORECAST WILL BE
CHALLENGING FOR TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS MAY ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. FOR THE
TAFS...WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THOUGH CERTAINTY IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP KDEN AND KAPA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 06Z
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ038-041>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 221704
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1004 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIMIT WARMING TODAY...SO DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. WARMEST LOCATION WILL BE IN THE FORT COLLINS AND
GREELEY AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE THE WARMEST READINGS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WEB CAMERAS AND
RADAR STILL SHOW SNOW FALLING IN MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND UGLY
CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER PASSES. WILL LEAVE THE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. MODELS STARTING TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS WOULD PRODUCE HARSH DRIVING AND POSSIBLY
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WILL TRY AND PIN DOWN WHERE THE GREAT CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL BE AND MAY NEED TO GO WITH SOME SORT OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE BLOWING SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE LATEST GRIDS. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO NORTHERLY AS UPPER CYCLONE HEADS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THIS FLOW FIELD TO
KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT OF THE SNOW GOING IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY DESPITE ANY STRONG QG ASCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE MOUNTAIN HIGHLIGHT AS IS. THE 07Z EXPIRATION TIME
APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS EVENING.

A FEW SNOW BANDS ARE PRESENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT 10Z AND
THIS SCENARIO OF OCCASIONAL SNOW BANDS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE OFF
AND ON TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOW PATTERN. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER ONES COULD PROVIDE A QUICK DUMP OF PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE PALMER DIVIDE
COULD BE AN EXCEPTION TO THIS. THE MODELS SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER TONIGHT AS A BLOB OF QG
ASCENT WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS
CYCLONE. WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OUT
THERE...CONDITIONS COULD GET A BIT DICEY FOR A TIME LATE IN THE
PERIOD. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
GREAT SO NO HIGHLIGHT FOR THAT IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

STG NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON TUE.  MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS HOWEVER ENOUGH WILL LINGER AT MTN
TOP FOR -SHSN ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  OVER NERN CO WITH
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD AND SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS IN THE
MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PLAINS.  IN
ADDITION BNDRY LYR WINDS AROUND 50 KTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO
THE SFC WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THRU EARLY AFTN SO WILL
ISSUE A WATCH FM THE WY-NE BORDER SOUTH TOWARDS LIMON. AS FOR
HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN
CO.

ON WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW WITH ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS.  MEANWHILE SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DVLP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASING BY AFTN.  THUS WILL
SEE WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER
TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
WLY. THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF MTN WAVE AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 KTS.  BY THU AFTN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF -SHSN BY AFTN. OVER
NERN CO IT LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AND MILD FOR THU AFTN WITH HIGHS IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE. BY LATE AFTN AS MID LVL QG ASCENT
INCREASES THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NERN
CO.

FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THU NIGHT WITH A GOOD SHOT OF MID LVL QG ASCENT AS A CDFNT
MOVES INTO NERN CO EARLY THU EVENING WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AS
A SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OVER SERN CO. AS A RESULT THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHC OF SNOW FM THE MTNS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER NERN CO WITH A BORA TYPE FNT MOVING ACROSS
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN THE
MTNS AND OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  AT THIS TIME ITS STILL NOT CLEAR
HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS OVER NERN CO FOR THU NIGHT.

FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF OROGRAPHIC
SNOW. OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW WITH HIGHS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON
SAT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS NERN CO.  BY
SUN THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH A CDFNT.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SNOW IN THE
MTNS WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW OVER NERN CO AS HIGHS STAY
IN THE 30S. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN US WHICH KEEPS THE FLOW SWLY ON SUNDAY.  THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A LOWER CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH NO PCPN OVER NERN CO
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WOULD STILL STAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN THE DENVER AREA. THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY DROP
CEILINGS TO 4000 FEET FOR A SHORT TIME. WIND FORECAST WILL BE
CHALLENGING FOR TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BY 18Z. WINDS MAY ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. FOR THE
TAFS...WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THOUGH CERTAINTY IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP KDEN AND KAPA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 06Z
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ038-041>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER



000
FXUS65 KGJT 221639
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
939 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A COMPLICATED WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW WITH THE
BEST FORCING OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

THE JET STREAM IS ORIENTED NNW-SSE IN WESTERN COLORADO BUT
ENHANCES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 140KTS ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SPATIALLY COMPLICATED
WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS INHIBITING MIXING AT TIMES BUT SHOWERS
TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES TOO. ALREADY THIS
EARLY MORNING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG
HIGHWAY 550 BETWEEN OURAY AND RED MTN PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 80 TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET TO CAPTURE
DOUGLAS PASS ALSO. FURTHER NORTH HIGHWAY 191 THROUGH THE EASTERN
UINTAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING
UNDER THE JET. THE FAR EASTERN MTNS CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALSO HAVE WIND GUSTS BUT MORE IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH
RANGE.

AS FOR SNOW...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE
DEEPEST ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNAL SSE TO DURANGO. WEST
OF THAT LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL HELP TO STIR THE LOWER LEVELS AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES UP TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET. THE
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEYS EVEN AS SNOW SHOWERS
SHIFT EAST. ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE THAT WILL BE UNDER DUE
NORTH MTN TOPS WINDS AT 20KTS WITH 700MB TEMPS DOWN TO THE
EFFICIENT -12C. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS IN DETAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHUFFLES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE VALLEYS. TIMING OF THE WAVE
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY
EVENT UNTIL WE START WRAPPING UP THE CURRENT STORM. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM
DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER HAS DEFINITELY ARRIVED
ON THE WEST SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK FLOW AT OVER 140
KTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE STRONG WIND
SHEAR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL WILL PERSIST. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 35-55KT POSSIBLE
AT AREA AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND IS NOT GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN 020 FEET AGL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ005-
     007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ002-004-
     010-012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...EH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221604
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
904 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN ALL POINT TO A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...ADD A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH NEW HIGHLIGHTS DEALING WITH WIND AND WINTER
STORM POSSIBILITIES FOR THE PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ089-093-094.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ084.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221604
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
904 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN ALL POINT TO A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...ADD A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH NEW HIGHLIGHTS DEALING WITH WIND AND WINTER
STORM POSSIBILITIES FOR THE PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ089-093-094.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ084.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221604
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
904 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN ALL POINT TO A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...ADD A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH NEW HIGHLIGHTS DEALING WITH WIND AND WINTER
STORM POSSIBILITIES FOR THE PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ089-093-094.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ084.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221604
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
904 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN ALL POINT TO A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...ADD A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE...GOING WITH NEW HIGHLIGHTS DEALING WITH WIND AND WINTER
STORM POSSIBILITIES FOR THE PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. MOORE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ089-093-094.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ095>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ084.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221409
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
709 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 221409
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
709 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE MORNING POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTO NORTHWESTRN COLORADO
ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD STRONGER
WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST CHANCES OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH PASSING COLD FRONT
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY
AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW
DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S
AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221151 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221151 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221151 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221151 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHWESTRN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD
STRONGER WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST
CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES
LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 221151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY AN UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVR SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH
A STRONG UPR JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF OVR WRN CO.  TONIGHT
THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SRN IA.

GOOD MSTR FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL KEEP SNOW GOING TODAY.  THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WL BE OVR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LEADVILLE
AREA...THE LA GARITA MTNS AND IN SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF THE CONTDVD
BELOW 10000 FT.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE HYR
ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH WL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VERY
POOR VSBYS AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

EARLY THIS MORNING SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND MTNS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THRU THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE SE.  THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND OVR THE
ERN MTNS...THEN SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS.  IT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE HYR ELEVATIONS WL SEE SNOW AND SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES.

AS THAT UPR  LOW MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WL MOVE THRU ERN CO.  THIS WL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SERN PLAINS...WITH PCPN CONTINUING
OVR ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OVR THE CONTDVD AS IT WILL BE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS THIS EVENING COOL...PCPN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WL BECOME SNOW.  THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS OVR SOME AREAS...FROM HWY 50 AND
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD
A CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT AND WL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW THIS EVENING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT GET
A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS. BY LATE NIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE
DECREASING ACRS ALL OF THE AREA...LEAVING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ACRS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG 140KT JET CORE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
SHIFTING TO STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SFC-H7 GRADIENT SETTING UP AS
THE JET CORE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z
TUESDAY AS PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK A LIKE A SLAM DUNK WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. I
WILL...HOWEVER...KEEP STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY.  AT ANY RATE...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A RAW AND BLUSTERY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MODERATE AND
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING UNDER A BUILDING TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTO NORTHWESTRN COLORADO
ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO LIFT IT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW IS THAT THE EC IS A TAD STRONGER
WITH BACKSIDE ENERGY DIGGING THE SYSTEM A TAD FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE AND HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...BEST CHANCES OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH PASSING COLD FRONT
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO CONTINUING TO FADE. TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY
AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WITH THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO WARM. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COOL AND RAW
DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 20S
AND 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

KPUB WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THRU TODAY.  THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

KCOS WL HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN EXCEPT OVR THE MTNS...THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU TODAY. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OR IFR...HOWEVER BY LATE
NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KALS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING AFTER 20Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW BY EVENING MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE.  A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED AROUND 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221107
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
407 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A COMPLICATED WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW WITH THE
BEST FORCING OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

THE JET STREAM IS ORIENTED NNW-SSE IN WESTERN COLORADO BUT
ENHANCES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 140KTS ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SPATIALLY COMPLICATED
WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS INHIBITING MIXING AT TIMES BUT SHOWERS
TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES TOO. ALREADY THIS
EARLY MORNING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG
HIGHWAY 550 BETWEEN OURAY AND RED MTN PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 80 TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET TO CAPTURE
DOUGLAS PASS ALSO. FURTHER NORTH HIGHWAY 191 THROUGH THE EASTERN
UINTAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING
UNDER THE JET. THE FAR EASTERN MTNS CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALSO HAVE WIND GUSTS BUT MORE IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH
RANGE.

AS FOR SNOW...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE
DEEPEST ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNAL SSE TO DURANGO. WEST
OF THAT LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL HELP TO STIR THE LOWER LEVELS AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES UP TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET. THE
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEYS EVEN AS SNOW SHOWERS
SHIFT EAST. ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE THAT WILL BE UNDER DUE
NORTH MTN TOPS WINDS AT 20KTS WITH 700MB TEMPS DOWN TO THE
EFFICIENT -12C. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS IN DETAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHUFFLES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE VALLEYS. TIMING OF THE WAVE
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY
EVENT UNTIL WE START WRAPPING UP THE CURRENT STORM. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM
DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER HAS DEFINITELY ARRIVED
ON THE WEST SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING STRENGTHENS TO
OVER 140 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRODUCES STRONG WIND SHEAR
BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL...EVEN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES.
WIND GUSTS OF 35-55KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND
IS NOT GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN
020 FEET AGL.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE CIGS AT OR BLO 010 AND VSBY AT OR BLO
1SM. OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CLOUDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ005-
     007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ002-004-
     010-012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221107
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
407 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A COMPLICATED WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW WITH THE
BEST FORCING OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

THE JET STREAM IS ORIENTED NNW-SSE IN WESTERN COLORADO BUT
ENHANCES TO AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG 140KTS ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SPATIALLY COMPLICATED
WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS INHIBITING MIXING AT TIMES BUT SHOWERS
TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES TOO. ALREADY THIS
EARLY MORNING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG
HIGHWAY 550 BETWEEN OURAY AND RED MTN PASS. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 80 TO 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET TO CAPTURE
DOUGLAS PASS ALSO. FURTHER NORTH HIGHWAY 191 THROUGH THE EASTERN
UINTAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING
UNDER THE JET. THE FAR EASTERN MTNS CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALSO HAVE WIND GUSTS BUT MORE IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH
RANGE.

AS FOR SNOW...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE
DEEPEST ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EAST OF A LINE FROM VERNAL SSE TO DURANGO. WEST
OF THAT LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL HELP TO STIR THE LOWER LEVELS AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES UP TO AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET. THE
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE VALLEYS EVEN AS SNOW SHOWERS
SHIFT EAST. ONE AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE THAT WILL BE UNDER DUE
NORTH MTN TOPS WINDS AT 20KTS WITH 700MB TEMPS DOWN TO THE
EFFICIENT -12C. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS IN DETAIL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHUFFLES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE VALLEYS. TIMING OF THE WAVE
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS DAY
EVENT UNTIL WE START WRAPPING UP THE CURRENT STORM. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM
DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER HAS DEFINITELY ARRIVED
ON THE WEST SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

THE JET STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING STRENGTHENS TO
OVER 140 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRODUCES STRONG WIND SHEAR
BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL...EVEN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES.
WIND GUSTS OF 35-55KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRPORTS. IF THE WIND
IS NOT GUSTING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN
020 FEET AGL.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVEL SSE TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE CIGS AT OR BLO 010 AND VSBY AT OR BLO
1SM. OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CLOUDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ005-
     007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     017-019.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ002-004-
     010-012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC/JOE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 221038
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
338 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE LATEST GRIDS. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO NORTHERLY AS UPPER CYCLONE HEADS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THIS FLOW FIELD TO
KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT OF THE SNOW GOING IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY DESPITE ANY STRONG QG ASCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE MOUNTAIN HIGHLIGHT AS IS. THE 07Z EXPIRATION TIME
APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS EVENING.

A FEW SNOW BANDS ARE PRESENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT 10Z AND
THIS SCENARIO OF OCCASIONAL SNOW BANDS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE OFF
AND ON TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOW PATTERN. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER ONES COULD PROVIDE A QUICK DUMP OF PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE PALMER DIVIDE
COULD BE AN EXCEPTION TO THIS. THE MODELS SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER TONIGHT AS A BLOB OF QG
ASCENT WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS
CYCLONE. WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OUT
THERE...CONDITIONS COULD GET A BIT DICEY FOR A TIME LATE IN THE
PERIOD. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
GREAT SO NO HIGHLIGHT FOR THAT IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

STG NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON TUE.  MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN THE MTNS HOWEVER ENOUGH WILL LINGER AT MTN
TOP FOR -SHSN ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  OVER NERN CO WITH
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD AND SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS IN THE
MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PLAINS.  IN
ADDITION BNDRY LYR WINDS AROUND 50 KTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO
THE SFC WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THRU EARLY AFTN SO WILL
ISSUE A WATCH FM THE WY-NE BORDER SOUTH TOWARDS LIMON. AS FOR
HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN
CO.

ON WED THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW WITH ONLY SOME HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS.  MEANWHILE SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DVLP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASING BY AFTN.  THUS WILL
SEE WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER
TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
WLY. THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF MTN WAVE AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 KTS.  BY THU AFTN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF -SHSN BY AFTN. OVER
NERN CO IT LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AND MILD FOR THU AFTN WITH HIGHS IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE. BY LATE AFTN AS MID LVL QG ASCENT
INCREASES THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NERN
CO.

FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THU NIGHT WITH A GOOD SHOT OF MID LVL QG ASCENT AS A CDFNT
MOVES INTO NERN CO EARLY THU EVENING WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AS
A SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OVER SERN CO. AS A RESULT THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHC OF SNOW FM THE MTNS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER NERN CO WITH A BORA TYPE FNT MOVING ACROSS
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN THE
MTNS AND OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  AT THIS TIME ITS STILL NOT CLEAR
HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS OVER NERN CO FOR THU NIGHT.

FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF OROGRAPHIC
SNOW. OVER NERN CO WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW WITH HIGHS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON
SAT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS NERN CO.  BY
SUN THE GFS MOVES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH A CDFNT.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER GOOD CHC OF SNOW IN THE
MTNS WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW OVER NERN CO AS HIGHS STAY
IN THE 30S. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN US WHICH KEEPS THE FLOW SWLY ON SUNDAY.  THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A LOWER CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH NO PCPN OVER NERN CO
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WOULD STILL STAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT MOVES OR DEVELOPS OVER A
TERMINAL WILL LIKELY CAUSE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME.
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROBABLY PREVAIL EARLY ON WITH A SHIFT
TO MORE NORTHWEST AND INCREASED SPEEDS TOWARDS MIDDAY. THESE
MODEST NORTHWESTERLIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COZ038-041>051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ET



000
FXUS65 KGJT 220610
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1110 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW HAS STARTED ACCUMULATING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT-
LIVED LULLS. IN FACT...SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED FOR THE SAN JUANS SO BUMPED UP START TIME FOR WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES IN THAT AREA.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA WITH A FETCH THAT REACHES AS FAR BACK AS HAWAII
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT.
INTERESTINGLY...SOUNDINGS FORECAST SOME MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH AND THIS IS BEING
BORNE OUT WITH CRAIG REPORTING TEMPS AT 38F. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
CAUSE SNOW PRODUCTION TO WANE A BIT BUT IF THE SOUNDING IS TO BE
BELIEVED...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING SO ANY RAIN IN
THAT AREA WILL QUICKLY SWITCH BACK TO SNOW AS THE SNOW MACHINE
CONTINUES. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH 12+ INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS. TRAVEL ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE DIFFICULT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST EAST
OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONLY GET WORSE. MANY
CHAIN LAWS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THOUGH WINDS ARE ONLY GUSTING
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. GO A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO SRN WY
THOUGH AND WINDS ARE HOWLING WITH GUSTS OF 55 MPH BEING REPORTED.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING ESPECIALLY SINCE
STRONGEST PORTION OF JET IS STILL APPROACHING.

INTENSITY WILL START DYING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SNOWFALL
WILL KEEP GOING AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING NWLY WINDS TO BECOME
MORE NRLY CAUSING SNOWFALL TO REALLY DIE DOWN AND BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE GETS CUT OFF. TEMPS WILL ALSO
DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE SLOWLY WEAKENING JET STREAM ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER WRN CO
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE CO MTNS TUESDAY...FAVORING THE
NORTH SLOPES. THE JET SLIDES EAST TUE NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT UNDER STABLE
CONDITIONS AND KNOCKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE DOESN`T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WA/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO AS
AN OPEN WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS A BIT MORE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT MORE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BETTER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
CO MTNS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT AS QUICKLY
AS IT MOVED IN WITH MOSTLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM REACHING THE
NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE JET STREAM REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHENS TO OVER 130KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRODUCES STRONG
WIND SHEAR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL...EVEN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AT TIMES. WIND GUSTS OF 30-50KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRPORTS. IF
THE WIND IS NOT GUSTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITHIN 020 FEET AGL.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVEL SOUTH TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE CIGS AT OR BLO 010 AND VSBY AT OR BLO
1SM. OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003-017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014-018.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JOE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 220610
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1110 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW HAS STARTED ACCUMULATING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT-
LIVED LULLS. IN FACT...SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED FOR THE SAN JUANS SO BUMPED UP START TIME FOR WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES IN THAT AREA.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA WITH A FETCH THAT REACHES AS FAR BACK AS HAWAII
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT.
INTERESTINGLY...SOUNDINGS FORECAST SOME MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH AND THIS IS BEING
BORNE OUT WITH CRAIG REPORTING TEMPS AT 38F. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
CAUSE SNOW PRODUCTION TO WANE A BIT BUT IF THE SOUNDING IS TO BE
BELIEVED...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING SO ANY RAIN IN
THAT AREA WILL QUICKLY SWITCH BACK TO SNOW AS THE SNOW MACHINE
CONTINUES. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH 12+ INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS. TRAVEL ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE DIFFICULT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST EAST
OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONLY GET WORSE. MANY
CHAIN LAWS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THOUGH WINDS ARE ONLY GUSTING
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. GO A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO SRN WY
THOUGH AND WINDS ARE HOWLING WITH GUSTS OF 55 MPH BEING REPORTED.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING ESPECIALLY SINCE
STRONGEST PORTION OF JET IS STILL APPROACHING.

INTENSITY WILL START DYING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SNOWFALL
WILL KEEP GOING AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING NWLY WINDS TO BECOME
MORE NRLY CAUSING SNOWFALL TO REALLY DIE DOWN AND BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE GETS CUT OFF. TEMPS WILL ALSO
DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE SLOWLY WEAKENING JET STREAM ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER WRN CO
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE CO MTNS TUESDAY...FAVORING THE
NORTH SLOPES. THE JET SLIDES EAST TUE NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT UNDER STABLE
CONDITIONS AND KNOCKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE DOESN`T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WA/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO AS
AN OPEN WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS A BIT MORE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT MORE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BETTER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
CO MTNS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT AS QUICKLY
AS IT MOVED IN WITH MOSTLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM REACHING THE
NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE JET STREAM REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHENS TO OVER 130KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRODUCES STRONG
WIND SHEAR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL...EVEN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AT TIMES. WIND GUSTS OF 30-50KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRPORTS. IF
THE WIND IS NOT GUSTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITHIN 020 FEET AGL.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MTNS IMPACTING ALL AIRPORTS EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVEL SOUTH TO KDRO. FOR KHDN KSBS KEGE KASE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE CIGS AT OR BLO 010 AND VSBY AT OR BLO
1SM. OTHER AIRPORTS WILL HAVE CIGS AT OR BLO 030 WITH SCT -SNRA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003-017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014-018.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 220536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER THE ERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT
LIGHT BANDED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE
NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DIMINISHING FOR THE PLAINS EARLY MON
MORNING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SCT SHRASN WILL TEMPORARILY WIND DOWN AFTER ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MON EVENING. IT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE MON EVENING
FOR KCOS AND KPUB. THE CENTRAL MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY
SN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SN AND BLSN OVER THE DVD ESPECIALLY
N OF KMYP. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 220536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER THE ERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT
LIGHT BANDED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE
NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DIMINISHING FOR THE PLAINS EARLY MON
MORNING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SCT SHRASN WILL TEMPORARILY WIND DOWN AFTER ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MON EVENING. IT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE MON EVENING
FOR KCOS AND KPUB. THE CENTRAL MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY
SN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SN AND BLSN OVER THE DVD ESPECIALLY
N OF KMYP. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 220536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER THE ERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT
LIGHT BANDED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE
NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DIMINISHING FOR THE PLAINS EARLY MON
MORNING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SCT SHRASN WILL TEMPORARILY WIND DOWN AFTER ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MON EVENING. IT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE MON EVENING
FOR KCOS AND KPUB. THE CENTRAL MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY
SN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SN AND BLSN OVER THE DVD ESPECIALLY
N OF KMYP. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 220536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER THE ERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT
LIGHT BANDED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE
NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DIMINISHING FOR THE PLAINS EARLY MON
MORNING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SCT SHRASN WILL TEMPORARILY WIND DOWN AFTER ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MON EVENING. IT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE MON EVENING
FOR KCOS AND KPUB. THE CENTRAL MTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY
SN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SN AND BLSN OVER THE DVD ESPECIALLY
N OF KMYP. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 220426
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
926 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MANAGED TO SPILL ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AS
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH DRYING NOTED ALOFT...AND CELLS HAVE
BECOME QUITE CONVECTIVE WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING INDICATED IN THE
COLORADO LIGHTNING MAPPING ARRAY. MEANWHILE...FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CO/WY BORDER AS OF 830 PM WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW...BEHIND IT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
RANGE RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT HANDLING THIS PRECIPITATION WELL AT
ALL. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS
IF SHOWERS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AS INTENSITY/CONVECTIVE
PARAMETER IS THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 926 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONGER WINDS TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS NOW NOTED WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH GREELEY-FORT COLLINS AREA. WILL INCREASE THE NORTH
WINDS IN THE TAF WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF TIME
WITH COLD FRONT. STILL EXPECT RAIN RAIN SHOWERS WITH ILS LANDING
CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 05Z-06Z...THEN SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS IF SHOWERS MAINTAIN THERE PRESENT
INTENSITY...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING
TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 220426
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
926 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MANAGED TO SPILL ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AS
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH DRYING NOTED ALOFT...AND CELLS HAVE
BECOME QUITE CONVECTIVE WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING INDICATED IN THE
COLORADO LIGHTNING MAPPING ARRAY. MEANWHILE...FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CO/WY BORDER AS OF 830 PM WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW...BEHIND IT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
RANGE RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT HANDLING THIS PRECIPITATION WELL AT
ALL. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS
IF SHOWERS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AS INTENSITY/CONVECTIVE
PARAMETER IS THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 926 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONGER WINDS TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS NOW NOTED WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH GREELEY-FORT COLLINS AREA. WILL INCREASE THE NORTH
WINDS IN THE TAF WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF TIME
WITH COLD FRONT. STILL EXPECT RAIN RAIN SHOWERS WITH ILS LANDING
CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 05Z-06Z...THEN SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS IF SHOWERS MAINTAIN THERE PRESENT
INTENSITY...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING
TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220348
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
848 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MANAGED TO SPILL ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AS
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH DRYING NOTED ALOFT...AND CELLS HAVE
BECOME QUITE CONVECTIVE WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING INDICATED IN THE
COLORADO LIGHTNING MAPPING ARRAY. MEANWHILE...FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CO/WY BORDER AS OF 830 PM WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW...BEHIND IT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
RANGE RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT HANDLING THIS PRECIPITATION WELL AT
ALL. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS
IF SHOWERS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AS INTENSITY/CONVECTIVE
PARAMETER IS THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 847 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS TOWARD
05Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25
KNOTS. SHOULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH ILS LANDING CONDITIONS
TIL AROUND 06Z...THEN SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES
OF ONE MILE OR LESS IF SHOWERS MAINTAIN THERE PRESENT
INTENSITY...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING
TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 220348
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
848 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MANAGED TO SPILL ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AS
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH DRYING NOTED ALOFT...AND CELLS HAVE
BECOME QUITE CONVECTIVE WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING INDICATED IN THE
COLORADO LIGHTNING MAPPING ARRAY. MEANWHILE...FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CO/WY BORDER AS OF 830 PM WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW...BEHIND IT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
RANGE RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT HANDLING THIS PRECIPITATION WELL AT
ALL. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS
IF SHOWERS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AS INTENSITY/CONVECTIVE
PARAMETER IS THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 847 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS TOWARD
05Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25
KNOTS. SHOULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH ILS LANDING CONDITIONS
TIL AROUND 06Z...THEN SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES
OF ONE MILE OR LESS IF SHOWERS MAINTAIN THERE PRESENT
INTENSITY...WITH LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING
TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 220335
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
835 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER THE ERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT
LIGHT BANDED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE
NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DIMINISHING FOR THE PLAINS EARLY MON
MORNING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 220335
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
835 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER THE ERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT
LIGHT BANDED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE
NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DIMINISHING FOR THE PLAINS EARLY MON
MORNING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 220335
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
835 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER THE ERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT
LIGHT BANDED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE
NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DIMINISHING FOR THE PLAINS EARLY MON
MORNING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 220335
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
835 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER THE ERN PLAINS WHERE PERSISTENT
LIGHT BANDED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE
NRN SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DIMINISHING FOR THE PLAINS EARLY MON
MORNING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 220332
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
832 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS HAD NOT MATERIALIZED OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO
THIS EVENING DESPITE ONSET OF CAA WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. FLOW
ALOFT ONLY DECREASES IN THE FUTURE SO CHANCES OF SEEING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH NEAR NIL. THEREFORE...CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR NORTHWEST COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES AS SNOW CONTINUED TO FALL OVER THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY AND THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PARK RANGE
HAVE RECEIVED NEAR 1.5 FEET OF NEW SNOW WITH MORE ON THE WAY. WEB
CAMS CONTINUED TO SHOW NASTY CONDITIONS GENERATED FROM SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW OVER VAIL PASS SO TRAVELERS BEWARE. SNOW LEVEL HAD
RISEN TO NEAR 6500 FEET RESULTING IN RAIN AT RIFLE BUT EXPECT
LEVELS WILL COME DOWN AGAIN WITH CAA DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW HAS STARTED ACCUMULATING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT-
LIVED LULLS. IN FACT...SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED FOR THE SAN JUANS SO BUMPED UP START TIME FOR WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES IN THAT AREA.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA WITH A FETCH THAT REACHES AS FAR BACK AS HAWAII
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT.
INTERESTINGLY...SOUNDINGS FORECAST SOME MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH AND THIS IS BEING
BORNE OUT WITH CRAIG REPORTING TEMPS AT 38F. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
CAUSE SNOW PRODUCTION TO WANE A BIT BUT IF THE SOUNDING IS TO BE
BELIEVED...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING SO ANY RAIN IN
THAT AREA WILL QUICKLY SWITCH BACK TO SNOW AS THE SNOW MACHINE
CONTINUES. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH 12+ INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS. TRAVEL ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE DIFFICULT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST EAST
OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONLY GET WORSE. MANY
CHAIN LAWS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THOUGH WINDS ARE ONLY GUSTING
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. GO A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO SRN WY
THOUGH AND WINDS ARE HOWLING WITH GUSTS OF 55 MPH BEING REPORTED.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING ESPECIALLY SINCE
STRONGEST PORTION OF JET IS STILL APPROACHING.

INTENSITY WILL START DYING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SNOWFALL
WILL KEEP GOING AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING NWLY WINDS TO BECOME
MORE NRLY CAUSING SNOWFALL TO REALLY DIE DOWN AND BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE GETS CUT OFF. TEMPS WILL ALSO
DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE SLOWLY WEAKENING JET STREAM ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER WRN CO
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE CO MTNS TUESDAY...FAVORING THE
NORTH SLOPES. THE JET SLIDES EAST TUE NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT UNDER STABLE
CONDITIONS AND KNOCKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE DOESN`T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WA/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO AS
AN OPEN WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS A BIT MORE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT MORE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BETTER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
CO MTNS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT AS QUICKLY
AS IT MOVED IN WITH MOSTLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM REACHING THE
NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003-017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014-018.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220153
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
653 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS
TOWARD 05Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. COULD BE A LITTLE PREFRONTAL NORTHERLY SHIFT AS WELL
ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO WILL MONITOR
THOSE FEATURES CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AWAY FROM SUCH STRONG DOWNSLOPING.
COULD BE LOCAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220153
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
653 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS
TOWARD 05Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. COULD BE A LITTLE PREFRONTAL NORTHERLY SHIFT AS WELL
ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO WILL MONITOR
THOSE FEATURES CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AWAY FROM SUCH STRONG DOWNSLOPING.
COULD BE LOCAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220153
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
653 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS
TOWARD 05Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. COULD BE A LITTLE PREFRONTAL NORTHERLY SHIFT AS WELL
ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO WILL MONITOR
THOSE FEATURES CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AWAY FROM SUCH STRONG DOWNSLOPING.
COULD BE LOCAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220153
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
653 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS
TOWARD 05Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. COULD BE A LITTLE PREFRONTAL NORTHERLY SHIFT AS WELL
ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO WILL MONITOR
THOSE FEATURES CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AWAY FROM SUCH STRONG DOWNSLOPING.
COULD BE LOCAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220153
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
653 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS
TOWARD 05Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. COULD BE A LITTLE PREFRONTAL NORTHERLY SHIFT AS WELL
ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO WILL MONITOR
THOSE FEATURES CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AWAY FROM SUCH STRONG DOWNSLOPING.
COULD BE LOCAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220153
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
653 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS
TOWARD 05Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. COULD BE A LITTLE PREFRONTAL NORTHERLY SHIFT AS WELL
ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO WILL MONITOR
THOSE FEATURES CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AWAY FROM SUCH STRONG DOWNSLOPING.
COULD BE LOCAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220153
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
653 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS
TOWARD 05Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. COULD BE A LITTLE PREFRONTAL NORTHERLY SHIFT AS WELL
ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO WILL MONITOR
THOSE FEATURES CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AWAY FROM SUCH STRONG DOWNSLOPING.
COULD BE LOCAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 220153
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
653 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORGANIZING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO FORT MORGAN AND EAST OF LIMON.
THIS FEATURE SEEMS RATHER SLOW MOVING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE AND A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT COULD SHIFT
THE BAND BACK TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAIN HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS BUT A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
APPROACHING A FOOT TOWARD THE COLUMBINE AND TOWER SNOTELS...AND
ALSO NEAR COPPER MOUNTAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE WAS SOME DRYING NOTED ON THE RIVERTON
WYOMING SOUNDING BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. HAZARDOUS AND SLOW DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION AS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS
CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS AT 700 MB THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS
ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS
TOWARD 05Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. COULD BE A LITTLE PREFRONTAL NORTHERLY SHIFT AS WELL
ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO WILL MONITOR
THOSE FEATURES CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AWAY FROM SUCH STRONG DOWNSLOPING.
COULD BE LOCAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE ENDING TOWARD 12Z AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 220047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 220047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KPUB 220047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 220047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 220047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 220047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
547 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL
AS LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE DVD SO THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE THERE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ADDED BORDERLINE MENTIONABLE (10 PERCENT)
POPS FOR EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY OUT OVER KIOWA COUNTY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KBOU 212227 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
327 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION HAS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS COULD HAVE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE UNDER THE
HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED WINDS OVER
THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS
AT 850 THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH
THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY 01Z THIS EVENING...THIS COULD
CAUSE CROSSWIND ISSUES AT BOTH DEN AND APA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
A PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE NORTHERLY ONE BY 06Z
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR THE
AIRPORT...ICING COULD BE AN ISSUE AT THIS TIME. AFTER 01Z CEILINGS
MAY DROP TO BELOW 6OOOFT...DECREASING TO A POSSIBLE 3000FT WITH
THE SNOW AROUND 08Z. MODELS SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 14Z
TOMORROW BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 20KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 212227 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
327 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION HAS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS COULD HAVE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE UNDER THE
HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED WINDS OVER
THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS
AT 850 THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH
THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY 01Z THIS EVENING...THIS COULD
CAUSE CROSSWIND ISSUES AT BOTH DEN AND APA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
A PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE NORTHERLY ONE BY 06Z
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR THE
AIRPORT...ICING COULD BE AN ISSUE AT THIS TIME. AFTER 01Z CEILINGS
MAY DROP TO BELOW 6OOOFT...DECREASING TO A POSSIBLE 3000FT WITH
THE SNOW AROUND 08Z. MODELS SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 14Z
TOMORROW BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 20KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 212227
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
327 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW VISIBILITIES REDUCING
DOWN TO HALF A MILE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. CURRENT WARNING
PRODUCTS STILL ON TRACK BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RE-ASSESS
END TIMES DUE TO RECENT MODEL RUNS MOVING THE JET OUT SOONER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE. CONTINUING TO URGE TRAVELERS TO USE CAUTION HAS WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GUST UP TO 60 MPH THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS SUCH
AS LOVELAND PASS...BERTHOUD PASS AND RABBIT EARS PASS. OTHER WELL
TRAVELED AREAS ALONG I-70 SUCH AS THE TUNNEL WILL ALSO SEE GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ICY AND SNOWY ROADWAYS. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND DELAY PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS 4-5 DEGREES WARMER AND DRY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60
MPH OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL MOVE TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF I-25. IN ADDITION TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO SOME AREAS COULD HAVE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE UNDER THE
HEAVIER BANDS. TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING INCREASED WINDS OVER
THE NE PLAINS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS CURRENTLY HAS 65KTS
AT 850 THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WARNING CRITERIA. WILL CONSULT WITH
THE NEXT SHIFT AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS ON POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

NORTHEAST COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONG AND COLD NWLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE
MAY ESCAPE FROM ANY SNOWFALL DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN TERRAIN. WITH
SNOWFALL LETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MTN ZONES 31...33 AND 34 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
MST. MEANWHILE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MIXES DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
MODELS INDICATE N-NWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COVERING THE GROUND OUT THAT WAY...GOOD BET WE/LL SEE SOME BLOWING
SNOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
SLOWLY NEWRD AWAY FROM COLORADO WITH NLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
BECOMING EVEN STRONGER DURING THE DAY. MODEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER IN THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF
LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NO HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. AS FOR SNOWFALL...SHOULD SEE
AN END TO IT BY MORNING AT LOWER ELEVATION AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE START OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY..LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN NUDGES EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE AN
8-10DEG F WARMUP IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS
SWEEPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST INDICATIONS...AND THEY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...SHOW THIS TROUGH TRACKING NEARLY DUE
EAST ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT DOES
MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN MILD AND DRY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY LATE
THAT NIGHT...DRYING SETS IN ON COLD AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY 01Z THIS EVENING...THIS COULD
CAUSE CROSSWIND ISSUES AT BOTH DEN AND APA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
A PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE NORTHERLY ONE BY 06Z
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR THE
AIRPORT...ICING COULD BE AN ISSUE AT THIS TIME. AFTER 01Z CEILINGS
MAY DROP TO BELOW 6OOOFT...DECREASING TO A POSSIBLE 3000FT WITH
THE SNOW AROUND 08Z. MODELS SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 14Z
TOMORROW BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 20KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 212221
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. KLXV
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT ACCUMS IN TOWN. KGJT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE WEST SLOPE MOVING RAPIDLY SE IN THE
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS DOMINATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS WERE MILD WITH MAINLY
50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AT CANON CITY AND KSPD. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE MTNS AND GAP AREAS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH
IN GAP AREAS.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...

HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE C MTNS AND NW SLOPES
OF THE LA GARITA MTNS. A FOOT OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS...SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND SNOW SHOULD BE
INCREASING MOST MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOW START TO SEE SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...BUT NO SIGNIF ACCUMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AMBIENT TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS
IN THE U20S PLAINS...AND TEENS AND 20S MTNS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER.
WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD
AND NW FACING SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS. SNOW WILL LIKELY SLACKEN
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG JET MOVES OUT OVER THE MTNS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. BY MIDAFTERNOON TOMORROW...LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE TO 8-9 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS/SANGRES AND RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGIONS.

IT WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS 10F OR SO
COLDER THAN TODAY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME.

I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW BANDS DROPPING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS ANYONES
GUESS...BUT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE ON THE PALMER DVD AND SPANISH PEAKS/RATON
MESA REGION (LAS ANIMAS/HUERFANO COUNTY REGION).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE NE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...ELONGATING THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN INTO TX TUE MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 140 KT UPPER JET TO DROP DOWN INTO WESTERN CO AND CREATE
VERY STRONG WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO...ONGOING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL END MON EVE AND THE THREAT THEN BECOMES MORE OF A
WIND PROBLEM AS OPPOSED TO A SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBLEM. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
TUE MORN...BUT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTN AND EVE ARE
EXPECTED...AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMP SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO EVEN SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL
DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH WED AFTN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP
WITH A SOLUTION FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE WEEKEND. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN...BUT KEEPING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONTDVD AND ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL MTS ARE SET UP TO GET SOME MORE SNOW STARTING VERY EARLY THU
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRI...THOUGH THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME PCPN
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE PLAINS LATE THU. FEEL THAT IS
HIGHLY SUSPECT...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE
PALMER DVD AND EL PASO COUNTY...KEPT MUCH OF THE E PLAINS DRY.
CLOUDY AND A BIT WINDY...BUT DRY. EXPECT A RATHER MILD DAY ON THU
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER ON FRI. AS FOR
SAT AND SUN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. FEEL THE BEST
BET IS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRONG PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SPILL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

KCOS...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE...WITH SOME SHRA
TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW SO
SNOW SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED RUNWAYS. HOWEVER...IF A LOCALLY
SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME ACCUM SNOW OVER
THE THE KCOS AREA. FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY OF THIS LOOKS TO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.

KALS..

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS BEST FORCING MOVES OVER AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...

WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24H PERIOD. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT WHILE TO MVFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KGJT 212215
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW HAS STARTED ACCUMULATING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT-
LIVED LULLS. IN FACT...SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED FOR THE SAN JUANS SO BUMPED UP START TIME FOR WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES IN THAT AREA.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA WITH A FETCH THAT REACHES AS FAR BACK AS HAWAII
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT.
INTERESTINGLY...SOUNDINGS FORECAST SOME MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH AND THIS IS BEING
BORNE OUT WITH CRAIG REPORTING TEMPS AT 38F. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
CAUSE SNOW PRODUCTION TO WANE A BIT BUT IF THE SOUNDING IS TO BE
BELIEVED...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING SO ANY RAIN IN
THAT AREA WILL QUICKLY SWITCH BACK TO SNOW AS THE SNOW MACHINE
CONTINUES. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH 12+ INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS. TRAVEL ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE DIFFICULT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST EAST
OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONLY GET WORSE. MANY
CHAIN LAWS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THOUGH WINDS ARE ONLY GUSTING
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. GO A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO SRN WY
THOUGH AND WINDS ARE HOWLING WITH GUSTS OF 55 MPH BEING REPORTED.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING ESPECIALLY SINCE
STRONGEST PORTION OF JET IS STILL APPROACHING.

INTENSITY WILL START DYING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SNOWFALL
WILL KEEP GOING AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING NWLY WINDS TO BECOME
MORE NRLY CAUSING SNOWFALL TO REALLY DIE DOWN AND BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE GETS CUT OFF. TEMPS WILL ALSO
DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE SLOWLY WEAKENING JET STREAM ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER WRN CO
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE CO MTNS TUESDAY...FAVORING THE
NORTH SLOPES. THE JET SLIDES EAST TUE NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT UNDER STABLE
CONDITIONS AND KNOCKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE DOESN`T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WA/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO AS
AN OPEN WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS A BIT MORE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT MORE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BETTER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
CO MTNS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT AS QUICKLY
AS IT MOVED IN WITH MOSTLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM REACHING THE
NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003-017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 212215
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW HAS STARTED ACCUMULATING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT-
LIVED LULLS. IN FACT...SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED FOR THE SAN JUANS SO BUMPED UP START TIME FOR WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES IN THAT AREA.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA WITH A FETCH THAT REACHES AS FAR BACK AS HAWAII
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT.
INTERESTINGLY...SOUNDINGS FORECAST SOME MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH AND THIS IS BEING
BORNE OUT WITH CRAIG REPORTING TEMPS AT 38F. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
CAUSE SNOW PRODUCTION TO WANE A BIT BUT IF THE SOUNDING IS TO BE
BELIEVED...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING SO ANY RAIN IN
THAT AREA WILL QUICKLY SWITCH BACK TO SNOW AS THE SNOW MACHINE
CONTINUES. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH 12+ INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS. TRAVEL ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE DIFFICULT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST EAST
OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONLY GET WORSE. MANY
CHAIN LAWS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THOUGH WINDS ARE ONLY GUSTING
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. GO A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO SRN WY
THOUGH AND WINDS ARE HOWLING WITH GUSTS OF 55 MPH BEING REPORTED.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING ESPECIALLY SINCE
STRONGEST PORTION OF JET IS STILL APPROACHING.

INTENSITY WILL START DYING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SNOWFALL
WILL KEEP GOING AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING NWLY WINDS TO BECOME
MORE NRLY CAUSING SNOWFALL TO REALLY DIE DOWN AND BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE GETS CUT OFF. TEMPS WILL ALSO
DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE SLOWLY WEAKENING JET STREAM ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER WRN CO
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE CO MTNS TUESDAY...FAVORING THE
NORTH SLOPES. THE JET SLIDES EAST TUE NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT UNDER STABLE
CONDITIONS AND KNOCKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE DOESN`T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WA/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO AS
AN OPEN WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS A BIT MORE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT MORE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BETTER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
CO MTNS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT AS QUICKLY
AS IT MOVED IN WITH MOSTLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM REACHING THE
NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003-017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 212215
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW HAS STARTED ACCUMULATING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT-
LIVED LULLS. IN FACT...SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED FOR THE SAN JUANS SO BUMPED UP START TIME FOR WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES IN THAT AREA.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA WITH A FETCH THAT REACHES AS FAR BACK AS HAWAII
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT.
INTERESTINGLY...SOUNDINGS FORECAST SOME MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH AND THIS IS BEING
BORNE OUT WITH CRAIG REPORTING TEMPS AT 38F. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
CAUSE SNOW PRODUCTION TO WANE A BIT BUT IF THE SOUNDING IS TO BE
BELIEVED...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING SO ANY RAIN IN
THAT AREA WILL QUICKLY SWITCH BACK TO SNOW AS THE SNOW MACHINE
CONTINUES. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH 12+ INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS. TRAVEL ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE DIFFICULT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST EAST
OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONLY GET WORSE. MANY
CHAIN LAWS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THOUGH WINDS ARE ONLY GUSTING
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. GO A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO SRN WY
THOUGH AND WINDS ARE HOWLING WITH GUSTS OF 55 MPH BEING REPORTED.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING ESPECIALLY SINCE
STRONGEST PORTION OF JET IS STILL APPROACHING.

INTENSITY WILL START DYING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SNOWFALL
WILL KEEP GOING AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING NWLY WINDS TO BECOME
MORE NRLY CAUSING SNOWFALL TO REALLY DIE DOWN AND BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE GETS CUT OFF. TEMPS WILL ALSO
DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE SLOWLY WEAKENING JET STREAM ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER WRN CO
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE CO MTNS TUESDAY...FAVORING THE
NORTH SLOPES. THE JET SLIDES EAST TUE NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT UNDER STABLE
CONDITIONS AND KNOCKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE DOESN`T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WA/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO AS
AN OPEN WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS A BIT MORE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT MORE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BETTER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
CO MTNS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT AS QUICKLY
AS IT MOVED IN WITH MOSTLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM REACHING THE
NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003-017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 212215
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW HAS STARTED ACCUMULATING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT-
LIVED LULLS. IN FACT...SNOW STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED FOR THE SAN JUANS SO BUMPED UP START TIME FOR WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES IN THAT AREA.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA WITH A FETCH THAT REACHES AS FAR BACK AS HAWAII
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT.
INTERESTINGLY...SOUNDINGS FORECAST SOME MIDLEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH AND THIS IS BEING
BORNE OUT WITH CRAIG REPORTING TEMPS AT 38F. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
CAUSE SNOW PRODUCTION TO WANE A BIT BUT IF THE SOUNDING IS TO BE
BELIEVED...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING SO ANY RAIN IN
THAT AREA WILL QUICKLY SWITCH BACK TO SNOW AS THE SNOW MACHINE
CONTINUES. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH 12+ INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS. TRAVEL ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE DIFFICULT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST EAST
OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONLY GET WORSE. MANY
CHAIN LAWS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THOUGH WINDS ARE ONLY GUSTING
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. GO A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO SRN WY
THOUGH AND WINDS ARE HOWLING WITH GUSTS OF 55 MPH BEING REPORTED.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING ESPECIALLY SINCE
STRONGEST PORTION OF JET IS STILL APPROACHING.

INTENSITY WILL START DYING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SNOWFALL
WILL KEEP GOING AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING NWLY WINDS TO BECOME
MORE NRLY CAUSING SNOWFALL TO REALLY DIE DOWN AND BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE GETS CUT OFF. TEMPS WILL ALSO
DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE SLOWLY WEAKENING JET STREAM ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER WRN CO
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE CO MTNS TUESDAY...FAVORING THE
NORTH SLOPES. THE JET SLIDES EAST TUE NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT UNDER STABLE
CONDITIONS AND KNOCKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE DOESN`T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WA/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO AS
AN OPEN WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS A BIT MORE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT MORE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BETTER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
CO MTNS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT AS QUICKLY
AS IT MOVED IN WITH MOSTLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM REACHING THE
NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003-017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014-018.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 211952
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DECIDED TO GO WITH WARNING FOR GUNNISON AREA AS MODELS KEEP
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW GOING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND WITH BEST
PRECIP STILL ON THE WAY...ANTICIPATE 6 TO 9 INCHES IN TOWN WITH
TOTALS REACHING A FOOT IF NOT MORE FOR AREAS TO THE WEST INCLUDING
CERRO SUMMIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS STORM. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP HASN`T EVEN GOTTEN HERE YET SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A HUMDINGER
OF A STORM ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NAM12
SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW PICKING UP FOR THE NRN/CENT MTNS FROM ABOUT 2PM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS JUST AS EXCITED
THOUGH THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS A LITTLE LATER. ONE CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES THE GUNNISON AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ALSO...WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT IF SRN WY IS
ANY GAUGE...NRN PORTIONS OF UT/CO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211952
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DECIDED TO GO WITH WARNING FOR GUNNISON AREA AS MODELS KEEP
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW GOING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND WITH BEST
PRECIP STILL ON THE WAY...ANTICIPATE 6 TO 9 INCHES IN TOWN WITH
TOTALS REACHING A FOOT IF NOT MORE FOR AREAS TO THE WEST INCLUDING
CERRO SUMMIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS STORM. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP HASN`T EVEN GOTTEN HERE YET SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A HUMDINGER
OF A STORM ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NAM12
SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW PICKING UP FOR THE NRN/CENT MTNS FROM ABOUT 2PM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS JUST AS EXCITED
THOUGH THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS A LITTLE LATER. ONE CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES THE GUNNISON AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ALSO...WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT IF SRN WY IS
ANY GAUGE...NRN PORTIONS OF UT/CO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211952
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DECIDED TO GO WITH WARNING FOR GUNNISON AREA AS MODELS KEEP
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW GOING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND WITH BEST
PRECIP STILL ON THE WAY...ANTICIPATE 6 TO 9 INCHES IN TOWN WITH
TOTALS REACHING A FOOT IF NOT MORE FOR AREAS TO THE WEST INCLUDING
CERRO SUMMIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS STORM. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP HASN`T EVEN GOTTEN HERE YET SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A HUMDINGER
OF A STORM ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NAM12
SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW PICKING UP FOR THE NRN/CENT MTNS FROM ABOUT 2PM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS JUST AS EXCITED
THOUGH THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS A LITTLE LATER. ONE CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES THE GUNNISON AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ALSO...WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT IF SRN WY IS
ANY GAUGE...NRN PORTIONS OF UT/CO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211952
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DECIDED TO GO WITH WARNING FOR GUNNISON AREA AS MODELS KEEP
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW GOING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND WITH BEST
PRECIP STILL ON THE WAY...ANTICIPATE 6 TO 9 INCHES IN TOWN WITH
TOTALS REACHING A FOOT IF NOT MORE FOR AREAS TO THE WEST INCLUDING
CERRO SUMMIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS STORM. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP HASN`T EVEN GOTTEN HERE YET SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A HUMDINGER
OF A STORM ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NAM12
SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW PICKING UP FOR THE NRN/CENT MTNS FROM ABOUT 2PM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS JUST AS EXCITED
THOUGH THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS A LITTLE LATER. ONE CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES THE GUNNISON AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ALSO...WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT IF SRN WY IS
ANY GAUGE...NRN PORTIONS OF UT/CO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211952
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DECIDED TO GO WITH WARNING FOR GUNNISON AREA AS MODELS KEEP
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW GOING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND WITH BEST
PRECIP STILL ON THE WAY...ANTICIPATE 6 TO 9 INCHES IN TOWN WITH
TOTALS REACHING A FOOT IF NOT MORE FOR AREAS TO THE WEST INCLUDING
CERRO SUMMIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS STORM. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP HASN`T EVEN GOTTEN HERE YET SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A HUMDINGER
OF A STORM ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NAM12
SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW PICKING UP FOR THE NRN/CENT MTNS FROM ABOUT 2PM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS JUST AS EXCITED
THOUGH THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS A LITTLE LATER. ONE CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES THE GUNNISON AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ALSO...WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT IF SRN WY IS
ANY GAUGE...NRN PORTIONS OF UT/CO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 211952
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DECIDED TO GO WITH WARNING FOR GUNNISON AREA AS MODELS KEEP
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW GOING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND WITH BEST
PRECIP STILL ON THE WAY...ANTICIPATE 6 TO 9 INCHES IN TOWN WITH
TOTALS REACHING A FOOT IF NOT MORE FOR AREAS TO THE WEST INCLUDING
CERRO SUMMIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS STORM. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP HASN`T EVEN GOTTEN HERE YET SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A HUMDINGER
OF A STORM ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NAM12
SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW PICKING UP FOR THE NRN/CENT MTNS FROM ABOUT 2PM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS JUST AS EXCITED
THOUGH THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS A LITTLE LATER. ONE CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES THE GUNNISON AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ALSO...WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT IF SRN WY IS
ANY GAUGE...NRN PORTIONS OF UT/CO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012>014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007>009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211919
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS STORM. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP HASN`T EVEN GOTTEN HERE YET SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A HUMDINGER
OF A STORM ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NAM12
SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW PICKING UP FOR THE NRN/CENT MTNS FROM ABOUT 2PM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS JUST AS EXCITED
THOUGH THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS A LITTLE LATER. ONE CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES THE GUNNISON AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ALSO...WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT IF SRN WY IS
ANY GAUGE...NRN PORTIONS OF UT/CO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012-013.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007-008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 211919
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS STORM. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP HASN`T EVEN GOTTEN HERE YET SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A HUMDINGER
OF A STORM ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NAM12
SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW PICKING UP FOR THE NRN/CENT MTNS FROM ABOUT 2PM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS JUST AS EXCITED
THOUGH THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS A LITTLE LATER. ONE CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES THE GUNNISON AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ALSO...WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT IF SRN WY IS
ANY GAUGE...NRN PORTIONS OF UT/CO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012-013.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007-008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211919
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS STORM. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP HASN`T EVEN GOTTEN HERE YET SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A HUMDINGER
OF A STORM ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NAM12
SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW PICKING UP FOR THE NRN/CENT MTNS FROM ABOUT 2PM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS JUST AS EXCITED
THOUGH THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS A LITTLE LATER. ONE CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES THE GUNNISON AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ALSO...WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT IF SRN WY IS
ANY GAUGE...NRN PORTIONS OF UT/CO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012-013.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007-008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211919
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

EVERYTHING STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS STORM. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP HASN`T EVEN GOTTEN HERE YET SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A HUMDINGER
OF A STORM ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. NAM12
SHOWS HEAVIER SNOW PICKING UP FOR THE NRN/CENT MTNS FROM ABOUT 2PM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS JUST AS EXCITED
THOUGH THE HEAVIER PRECIP STARTS A LITTLE LATER. ONE CONCERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES THE GUNNISON AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ALSO...WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT IF SRN WY IS
ANY GAUGE...NRN PORTIONS OF UT/CO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO MVFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO -SN DROPPING VIS AND LOW CIGS. THOSE AREAS
NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY GET WORST AS THE STORMS HAS YET TO REALLY GET GOING
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR MID- AFTERNOON ONWARDS. KASE KEGE AND KTEX WILL
LIKELY STAY AT MINIMUMS THROUGH 15Z WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR TAF SITES IN THE MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012-013.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007-008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KPUB 211750
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1050 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE FORECAST STILL GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MSTR AND
SNOW CHANCES INCREASING A LITTLE LATER TODAY OVR THE CONTDVD...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAKE COUNTY AND INTO NRN PORTIONS
OF THE WRN MTNS IN CHAFFEE COUNTY.  LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS AND ZONE 64.  THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT THE MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE.  THE ERN
SAN JUAN MTNS DO NOT GET HIT HARD WITH SNOW AND AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE
THEY WL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE CONTDVD
SHOULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS.  THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LAKE AND WRN CHAFFEE COUNTIES. ZONES 64 AND 66
SHOULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL INCHES.

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ZONE 59 WHICH INCLUDES LEADVILLE...WL SEE MORE
SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND
WL UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR THAT AREA.  IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE ZONES 64 AND 66 WL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...SO
WL ISSUE THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU
MON AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MOVE INTO THE
NRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND TELLER
COUNTY/PIKE PEAK LATE TONIGHT...BUT JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE.
AS A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS BRINGS
SOME PCPN INTO THE AREA....WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT AND IS DRY OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO...THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WL BE ANY PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TOWARD MORNING...BUT WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS AT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND REMAINS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG 140KT JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
STATE. CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CONTDVD CONTINUE
TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH POOR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
AND PLAINS TO BE MAINLY TIED TO ASSOCIATED PASSING COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN MTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL WINDS DOWN ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE AS JET CORE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RAW AND BLUSTERY DAY AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN OF POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS...THOUGH WILL LET
FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITS SELF FOR NOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH DECOUPLING WINDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORMAL COLD POCKETS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WARMING ALOFT UNDER A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY TO
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
FLIPPING SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS...WHERE AS THE GFS IS
DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EC
SOLUTION WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
DATA...WHICH HAS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
NIGHT...LATEST MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PRIMARILY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WE MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW BANDS OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. FOR NOW...INCLUDED VCSH AT KCOS AND KALS.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH




000
FXUS65 KPUB 211750
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1050 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE FORECAST STILL GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MSTR AND
SNOW CHANCES INCREASING A LITTLE LATER TODAY OVR THE CONTDVD...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAKE COUNTY AND INTO NRN PORTIONS
OF THE WRN MTNS IN CHAFFEE COUNTY.  LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS AND ZONE 64.  THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT THE MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE.  THE ERN
SAN JUAN MTNS DO NOT GET HIT HARD WITH SNOW AND AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE
THEY WL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE CONTDVD
SHOULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS.  THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LAKE AND WRN CHAFFEE COUNTIES. ZONES 64 AND 66
SHOULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL INCHES.

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ZONE 59 WHICH INCLUDES LEADVILLE...WL SEE MORE
SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND
WL UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR THAT AREA.  IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE ZONES 64 AND 66 WL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...SO
WL ISSUE THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU
MON AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MOVE INTO THE
NRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND TELLER
COUNTY/PIKE PEAK LATE TONIGHT...BUT JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE.
AS A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS BRINGS
SOME PCPN INTO THE AREA....WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT AND IS DRY OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO...THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WL BE ANY PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TOWARD MORNING...BUT WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS AT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND REMAINS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG 140KT JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
STATE. CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CONTDVD CONTINUE
TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH POOR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
AND PLAINS TO BE MAINLY TIED TO ASSOCIATED PASSING COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN MTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL WINDS DOWN ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE AS JET CORE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RAW AND BLUSTERY DAY AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN OF POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS...THOUGH WILL LET
FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITS SELF FOR NOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH DECOUPLING WINDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORMAL COLD POCKETS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WARMING ALOFT UNDER A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY TO
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
FLIPPING SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS...WHERE AS THE GFS IS
DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EC
SOLUTION WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
DATA...WHICH HAS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
NIGHT...LATEST MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PRIMARILY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WE MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW BANDS OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. FOR NOW...INCLUDED VCSH AT KCOS AND KALS.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH



000
FXUS65 KBOU 211625
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
COLORADO AS THE POOL OF MOISTURE AND JET MOVES SOUTHEAST. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES TO THE ON-GOING WARNING PRODUCTS AS TIMING
AND SNOW FALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...HOWEVER HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY POSSIBLE BLIZZARD WARNINGS AS THE VALLEYS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT BE HIT WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS ARE STILL INDICATING MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE
REGULATED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH
GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR TRAVELERS ON
I-70 THIS EVENING WITH GREATLY REDUCEDED VISIBILITIES. PUSHING
THE EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASED WINDS OVER WELL TRAVELED PASSES THROUGH CONFERENCE CALLS
AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA. WILL RE-ASSESS THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS OVER NW COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A
VERY STRONG JET. FOR THIS MORNING THERE IS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING WINDS...WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL
STABILITY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE STEADY SNOW OVER AND WEST OF THE
FRONT RANGE...BUT NOT HEAVY YET. THIS AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN MAKING FOR A MUCH
MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
LIFT...STRONGEST WINDS...AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BAD
TIMING FOR TRAFFIC...SO THE IMPACT COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL. WE WILL
BE HITTING THIS MESSAGE HARD TODAY. WINDS GO MORE NORTHERLY LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST LIFT SINKING SOUTH...BUT STILL REASONABLY
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ALRIGHT...TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW A
BIT TO HIT THIS EVENING THE HARDEST. THIS MAY BE A CANDIDATE FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING LATER TODAY IF IT PANS OUT.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT PLENTY OF SNOW
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION SOME FORCING WITH
THE JET SO WE WILL NEED SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
AND SOUTH PARK AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. SOME THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS THAT ARE IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...SUCH AS BERTHOUD PASS...NIWOT RIDGE AND OTHER ABOVE
TIMBERLINE AREAS STICKING UP INTO THE JET. FOR THE MORE POPULATED
FOOTHILL AREAS GUSTS IN THE 50-70 MPH RANGE LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT.
JET RELATED BANDING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE
AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE DEEP WIND
COMPONENT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE ON THE EAST SIDE. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME THREAT IN DENVER AS
WELL. THIS STUFF WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE JET AND SOME INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME PLACES THAT GET A
COUPLE OF INCHES AS A SHOWER BAND COMES OVER.

BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY...WARM AIRMASS
AND WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
WITH JET LEVEL SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY
AROUND 100 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS...MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL NORTHWESTERLY
FOR THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONCERNING MOISTURE...IT STAYS
FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
...MOISTURE IS DECREASING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BUT NOT TOTALLY
GONE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...IT IS PRETTY DRY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...LOWERING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF BY MONDAY
EVENING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. ALL AREAS ARE PRETTY DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT A TAD
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO FOR POPS...THE
HIGHLIGHTS ARE OUT AND WE ARE EXPECTING A HEALTHY SNOWFALL FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW TOO ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING INTO TUESDAY. PLAINS POPS WILL BE 0-30%S MONDAY INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE 6-10 C
COLDER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. TUESDAY IS ANOTHER 1-4 C COOLER THAN
MONDAY FOR HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND MODERATE IN SPEED. ON SATURDAY
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED. THE ECMWF HAS
BETTER PARAMETERS OVERALL FOR SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIME
PERIODS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING AROUND 03Z MONDAY TO 30 MPH. AFTER
03Z CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW 6000 FT WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW A
MILE BUT SOME REDUCTION IN VIS WILL BE POSSIBE AROUND 09Z WHEN
MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 211625
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
COLORADO AS THE POOL OF MOISTURE AND JET MOVES SOUTHEAST. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES TO THE ON-GOING WARNING PRODUCTS AS TIMING
AND SNOW FALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...HOWEVER HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY POSSIBLE BLIZZARD WARNINGS AS THE VALLEYS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT BE HIT WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS ARE STILL INDICATING MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE
REGULATED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH
GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR TRAVELERS ON
I-70 THIS EVENING WITH GREATLY REDUCEDED VISIBILITIES. PUSHING
THE EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASED WINDS OVER WELL TRAVELED PASSES THROUGH CONFERENCE CALLS
AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA. WILL RE-ASSESS THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS OVER NW COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A
VERY STRONG JET. FOR THIS MORNING THERE IS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING WINDS...WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL
STABILITY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE STEADY SNOW OVER AND WEST OF THE
FRONT RANGE...BUT NOT HEAVY YET. THIS AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN MAKING FOR A MUCH
MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
LIFT...STRONGEST WINDS...AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BAD
TIMING FOR TRAFFIC...SO THE IMPACT COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL. WE WILL
BE HITTING THIS MESSAGE HARD TODAY. WINDS GO MORE NORTHERLY LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST LIFT SINKING SOUTH...BUT STILL REASONABLY
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ALRIGHT...TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW A
BIT TO HIT THIS EVENING THE HARDEST. THIS MAY BE A CANDIDATE FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING LATER TODAY IF IT PANS OUT.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT PLENTY OF SNOW
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION SOME FORCING WITH
THE JET SO WE WILL NEED SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
AND SOUTH PARK AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. SOME THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS THAT ARE IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...SUCH AS BERTHOUD PASS...NIWOT RIDGE AND OTHER ABOVE
TIMBERLINE AREAS STICKING UP INTO THE JET. FOR THE MORE POPULATED
FOOTHILL AREAS GUSTS IN THE 50-70 MPH RANGE LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT.
JET RELATED BANDING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE
AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE DEEP WIND
COMPONENT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE ON THE EAST SIDE. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME THREAT IN DENVER AS
WELL. THIS STUFF WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE JET AND SOME INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME PLACES THAT GET A
COUPLE OF INCHES AS A SHOWER BAND COMES OVER.

BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY...WARM AIRMASS
AND WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
WITH JET LEVEL SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY
AROUND 100 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS...MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL NORTHWESTERLY
FOR THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONCERNING MOISTURE...IT STAYS
FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
...MOISTURE IS DECREASING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BUT NOT TOTALLY
GONE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...IT IS PRETTY DRY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...LOWERING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF BY MONDAY
EVENING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. ALL AREAS ARE PRETTY DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT A TAD
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO FOR POPS...THE
HIGHLIGHTS ARE OUT AND WE ARE EXPECTING A HEALTHY SNOWFALL FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW TOO ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING INTO TUESDAY. PLAINS POPS WILL BE 0-30%S MONDAY INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE 6-10 C
COLDER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. TUESDAY IS ANOTHER 1-4 C COOLER THAN
MONDAY FOR HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND MODERATE IN SPEED. ON SATURDAY
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED. THE ECMWF HAS
BETTER PARAMETERS OVERALL FOR SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIME
PERIODS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING AROUND 03Z MONDAY TO 30 MPH. AFTER
03Z CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW 6000 FT WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW A
MILE BUT SOME REDUCTION IN VIS WILL BE POSSIBE AROUND 09Z WHEN
MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 211625
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
COLORADO AS THE POOL OF MOISTURE AND JET MOVES SOUTHEAST. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES TO THE ON-GOING WARNING PRODUCTS AS TIMING
AND SNOW FALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...HOWEVER HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY POSSIBLE BLIZZARD WARNINGS AS THE VALLEYS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT BE HIT WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS ARE STILL INDICATING MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE
REGULATED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH
GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR TRAVELERS ON
I-70 THIS EVENING WITH GREATLY REDUCEDED VISIBILITIES. PUSHING
THE EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASED WINDS OVER WELL TRAVELED PASSES THROUGH CONFERENCE CALLS
AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA. WILL RE-ASSESS THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS OVER NW COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A
VERY STRONG JET. FOR THIS MORNING THERE IS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING WINDS...WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL
STABILITY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE STEADY SNOW OVER AND WEST OF THE
FRONT RANGE...BUT NOT HEAVY YET. THIS AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN MAKING FOR A MUCH
MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
LIFT...STRONGEST WINDS...AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BAD
TIMING FOR TRAFFIC...SO THE IMPACT COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL. WE WILL
BE HITTING THIS MESSAGE HARD TODAY. WINDS GO MORE NORTHERLY LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST LIFT SINKING SOUTH...BUT STILL REASONABLY
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ALRIGHT...TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW A
BIT TO HIT THIS EVENING THE HARDEST. THIS MAY BE A CANDIDATE FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING LATER TODAY IF IT PANS OUT.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT PLENTY OF SNOW
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION SOME FORCING WITH
THE JET SO WE WILL NEED SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
AND SOUTH PARK AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. SOME THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS THAT ARE IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...SUCH AS BERTHOUD PASS...NIWOT RIDGE AND OTHER ABOVE
TIMBERLINE AREAS STICKING UP INTO THE JET. FOR THE MORE POPULATED
FOOTHILL AREAS GUSTS IN THE 50-70 MPH RANGE LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT.
JET RELATED BANDING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE
AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE DEEP WIND
COMPONENT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE ON THE EAST SIDE. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME THREAT IN DENVER AS
WELL. THIS STUFF WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE JET AND SOME INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME PLACES THAT GET A
COUPLE OF INCHES AS A SHOWER BAND COMES OVER.

BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY...WARM AIRMASS
AND WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
WITH JET LEVEL SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY
AROUND 100 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS...MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL NORTHWESTERLY
FOR THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONCERNING MOISTURE...IT STAYS
FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
...MOISTURE IS DECREASING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BUT NOT TOTALLY
GONE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...IT IS PRETTY DRY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...LOWERING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF BY MONDAY
EVENING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. ALL AREAS ARE PRETTY DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT A TAD
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO FOR POPS...THE
HIGHLIGHTS ARE OUT AND WE ARE EXPECTING A HEALTHY SNOWFALL FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW TOO ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING INTO TUESDAY. PLAINS POPS WILL BE 0-30%S MONDAY INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE 6-10 C
COLDER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. TUESDAY IS ANOTHER 1-4 C COOLER THAN
MONDAY FOR HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND MODERATE IN SPEED. ON SATURDAY
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED. THE ECMWF HAS
BETTER PARAMETERS OVERALL FOR SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIME
PERIODS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING AROUND 03Z MONDAY TO 30 MPH. AFTER
03Z CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW 6000 FT WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW A
MILE BUT SOME REDUCTION IN VIS WILL BE POSSIBE AROUND 09Z WHEN
MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 211625
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
COLORADO AS THE POOL OF MOISTURE AND JET MOVES SOUTHEAST. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES TO THE ON-GOING WARNING PRODUCTS AS TIMING
AND SNOW FALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...HOWEVER HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY POSSIBLE BLIZZARD WARNINGS AS THE VALLEYS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT BE HIT WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS ARE STILL INDICATING MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE
REGULATED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH
GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR TRAVELERS ON
I-70 THIS EVENING WITH GREATLY REDUCEDED VISIBILITIES. PUSHING
THE EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASED WINDS OVER WELL TRAVELED PASSES THROUGH CONFERENCE CALLS
AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA. WILL RE-ASSESS THE BLIZZARD WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS OVER NW COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A
VERY STRONG JET. FOR THIS MORNING THERE IS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING WINDS...WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL
STABILITY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE STEADY SNOW OVER AND WEST OF THE
FRONT RANGE...BUT NOT HEAVY YET. THIS AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN MAKING FOR A MUCH
MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
LIFT...STRONGEST WINDS...AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BAD
TIMING FOR TRAFFIC...SO THE IMPACT COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL. WE WILL
BE HITTING THIS MESSAGE HARD TODAY. WINDS GO MORE NORTHERLY LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST LIFT SINKING SOUTH...BUT STILL REASONABLY
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ALRIGHT...TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW A
BIT TO HIT THIS EVENING THE HARDEST. THIS MAY BE A CANDIDATE FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING LATER TODAY IF IT PANS OUT.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT PLENTY OF SNOW
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION SOME FORCING WITH
THE JET SO WE WILL NEED SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
AND SOUTH PARK AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. SOME THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS THAT ARE IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...SUCH AS BERTHOUD PASS...NIWOT RIDGE AND OTHER ABOVE
TIMBERLINE AREAS STICKING UP INTO THE JET. FOR THE MORE POPULATED
FOOTHILL AREAS GUSTS IN THE 50-70 MPH RANGE LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT.
JET RELATED BANDING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE
AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE DEEP WIND
COMPONENT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE ON THE EAST SIDE. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME THREAT IN DENVER AS
WELL. THIS STUFF WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE JET AND SOME INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME PLACES THAT GET A
COUPLE OF INCHES AS A SHOWER BAND COMES OVER.

BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY...WARM AIRMASS
AND WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
WITH JET LEVEL SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY
AROUND 100 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS...MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL NORTHWESTERLY
FOR THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONCERNING MOISTURE...IT STAYS
FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
...MOISTURE IS DECREASING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BUT NOT TOTALLY
GONE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...IT IS PRETTY DRY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...LOWERING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF BY MONDAY
EVENING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. ALL AREAS ARE PRETTY DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT A TAD
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO FOR POPS...THE
HIGHLIGHTS ARE OUT AND WE ARE EXPECTING A HEALTHY SNOWFALL FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW TOO ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING INTO TUESDAY. PLAINS POPS WILL BE 0-30%S MONDAY INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE 6-10 C
COLDER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. TUESDAY IS ANOTHER 1-4 C COOLER THAN
MONDAY FOR HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND MODERATE IN SPEED. ON SATURDAY
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED. THE ECMWF HAS
BETTER PARAMETERS OVERALL FOR SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 925 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIME
PERIODS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING AROUND 03Z MONDAY TO 30 MPH. AFTER
03Z CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW 6000 FT WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW A
MILE BUT SOME REDUCTION IN VIS WILL BE POSSIBE AROUND 09Z WHEN
MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS65 KGJT 211512
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
812 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING STEADILY THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY AIRPORTS BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012-013.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007-008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211512
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
812 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-70 NORTHWARD.
CDOT WEBCAMS ALREADY SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ON I-70 SO
BUMPED UP THE START TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR THE CORRIDOR. ALSO
SAW SOME SNOW AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR
THE GRAND VALLEY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE VALLEY
AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL MELT ON ROADS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HOWEVER. FOR THE MOMENT...PRECIP
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER BAND MOVES
IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING STEADILY THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY AIRPORTS BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     004-010-012-013.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005-007-008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KBOU 211223
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A
VERY STRONG JET. FOR THIS MORNING THERE IS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING WINDS...WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL
STABILITY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE STEADY SNOW OVER AND WEST OF THE
FRONT RANGE...BUT NOT HEAVY YET. THIS AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN MAKING FOR A MUCH
MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
LIFT...STRONGEST WINDS...AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BAD
TIMING FOR TRAFFIC...SO THE IMPACT COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL. WE WILL
BE HITTING THIS MESSAGE HARD TODAY. WINDS GO MORE NORTHERLY LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST LIFT SINKING SOUTH...BUT STILL REASONABLY
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ALRIGHT...TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW A
BIT TO HIT THIS EVENING THE HARDEST. THIS MAY BE A CANDIDATE FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING LATER TODAY IF IT PANS OUT.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT PLENTY OF SNOW
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION SOME FORCING WITH
THE JET SO WE WILL NEED SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
AND SOUTH PARK AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. SOME THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS THAT ARE IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...SUCH AS BERTHOUD PASS...NIWOT RIDGE AND OTHER ABOVE
TIMBERLINE AREAS STICKING UP INTO THE JET. FOR THE MORE POPULATED
FOOTHILL AREAS GUSTS IN THE 50-70 MPH RANGE LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT.
JET RELATED BANDING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE
AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE DEEP WIND
COMPONENT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE ON THE EAST SIDE. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME THREAT IN DENVER AS
WELL. THIS STUFF WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE JET AND SOME INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME PLACES THAT GET A
COUPLE OF INCHES AS A SHOWER BAND COMES OVER.

BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY...WARM AIRMASS
AND WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
WITH JET LEVEL SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY
AROUND 100 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS...MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL NORTHWESTERLY
FOR THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONCERNING MOISTURE...IT STAYS
FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
...MOISTURE IS DECREASING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BUT NOT TOTALLY
GONE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...IT IS PRETTY DRY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...LOWERING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF BY MONDAY
EVENING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. ALL AREAS ARE PRETTY DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT A TAD
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO FOR POPS...THE
HIGHLIGHTS ARE OUT AND WE ARE EXPECTING A HEALTHY SNOWFALL FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW TOO ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING INTO TUESDAY. PLAINS POPS WILL BE 0-30%S MONDAY INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE 6-10 C
COLDER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. TUESDAY IS ANOTHER 1-4 C COOLER THAN
MONDAY FOR HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND MODERATE IN SPEED. ON SATURDAY
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED. THE ECMWF HAS
BETTER PARAMETERS OVERALL FOR SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...WHICH COULD CAUSE CROSSWIND ISSUES AT
KDEN/KAPA. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS AND LLWS POSSIBLE AT KBJC
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER 08Z WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
CAUSING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD




000
FXUS65 KBOU 211223
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A
VERY STRONG JET. FOR THIS MORNING THERE IS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING WINDS...WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL
STABILITY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE STEADY SNOW OVER AND WEST OF THE
FRONT RANGE...BUT NOT HEAVY YET. THIS AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN MAKING FOR A MUCH
MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
LIFT...STRONGEST WINDS...AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BAD
TIMING FOR TRAFFIC...SO THE IMPACT COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL. WE WILL
BE HITTING THIS MESSAGE HARD TODAY. WINDS GO MORE NORTHERLY LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST LIFT SINKING SOUTH...BUT STILL REASONABLY
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ALRIGHT...TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW A
BIT TO HIT THIS EVENING THE HARDEST. THIS MAY BE A CANDIDATE FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING LATER TODAY IF IT PANS OUT.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT PLENTY OF SNOW
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION SOME FORCING WITH
THE JET SO WE WILL NEED SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
AND SOUTH PARK AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. SOME THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS THAT ARE IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...SUCH AS BERTHOUD PASS...NIWOT RIDGE AND OTHER ABOVE
TIMBERLINE AREAS STICKING UP INTO THE JET. FOR THE MORE POPULATED
FOOTHILL AREAS GUSTS IN THE 50-70 MPH RANGE LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT.
JET RELATED BANDING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE
AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE DEEP WIND
COMPONENT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE ON THE EAST SIDE. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME THREAT IN DENVER AS
WELL. THIS STUFF WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE JET AND SOME INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME PLACES THAT GET A
COUPLE OF INCHES AS A SHOWER BAND COMES OVER.

BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY...WARM AIRMASS
AND WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
WITH JET LEVEL SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY
AROUND 100 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS...MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL NORTHWESTERLY
FOR THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONCERNING MOISTURE...IT STAYS
FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
...MOISTURE IS DECREASING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BUT NOT TOTALLY
GONE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...IT IS PRETTY DRY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...LOWERING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF BY MONDAY
EVENING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. ALL AREAS ARE PRETTY DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT A TAD
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO FOR POPS...THE
HIGHLIGHTS ARE OUT AND WE ARE EXPECTING A HEALTHY SNOWFALL FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW TOO ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING INTO TUESDAY. PLAINS POPS WILL BE 0-30%S MONDAY INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE 6-10 C
COLDER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. TUESDAY IS ANOTHER 1-4 C COOLER THAN
MONDAY FOR HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND MODERATE IN SPEED. ON SATURDAY
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED. THE ECMWF HAS
BETTER PARAMETERS OVERALL FOR SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...WHICH COULD CAUSE CROSSWIND ISSUES AT
KDEN/KAPA. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS AND LLWS POSSIBLE AT KBJC
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER 08Z WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
CAUSING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KBOU 211223
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A
VERY STRONG JET. FOR THIS MORNING THERE IS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING WINDS...WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL
STABILITY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE STEADY SNOW OVER AND WEST OF THE
FRONT RANGE...BUT NOT HEAVY YET. THIS AFTERNOON THE LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN MAKING FOR A MUCH
MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
LIFT...STRONGEST WINDS...AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BAD
TIMING FOR TRAFFIC...SO THE IMPACT COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL. WE WILL
BE HITTING THIS MESSAGE HARD TODAY. WINDS GO MORE NORTHERLY LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST LIFT SINKING SOUTH...BUT STILL REASONABLY
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ALRIGHT...TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW A
BIT TO HIT THIS EVENING THE HARDEST. THIS MAY BE A CANDIDATE FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING LATER TODAY IF IT PANS OUT.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT PLENTY OF SNOW
SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION SOME FORCING WITH
THE JET SO WE WILL NEED SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS
AND SOUTH PARK AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. SOME THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS THAT ARE IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...SUCH AS BERTHOUD PASS...NIWOT RIDGE AND OTHER ABOVE
TIMBERLINE AREAS STICKING UP INTO THE JET. FOR THE MORE POPULATED
FOOTHILL AREAS GUSTS IN THE 50-70 MPH RANGE LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT.
JET RELATED BANDING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE
AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE DEEP WIND
COMPONENT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE ON THE EAST SIDE. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME THREAT IN DENVER AS
WELL. THIS STUFF WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE JET AND SOME INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME PLACES THAT GET A
COUPLE OF INCHES AS A SHOWER BAND COMES OVER.

BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY...WARM AIRMASS
AND WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
WITH JET LEVEL SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY
AROUND 100 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS...MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALL NORTHWESTERLY
FOR THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONCERNING MOISTURE...IT STAYS
FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
...MOISTURE IS DECREASING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BUT NOT TOTALLY
GONE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS...IT IS PRETTY DRY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...LOWERING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF BY MONDAY
EVENING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. ALL AREAS ARE PRETTY DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS PROGGED IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT A TAD
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO FOR POPS...THE
HIGHLIGHTS ARE OUT AND WE ARE EXPECTING A HEALTHY SNOWFALL FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW TOO ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING INTO TUESDAY. PLAINS POPS WILL BE 0-30%S MONDAY INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE 6-10 C
COLDER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. TUESDAY IS ANOTHER 1-4 C COOLER THAN
MONDAY FOR HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
...MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND MODERATE IN SPEED. ON SATURDAY
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED. THE ECMWF HAS
BETTER PARAMETERS OVERALL FOR SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...WHICH COULD CAUSE CROSSWIND ISSUES AT
KDEN/KAPA. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS AND LLWS POSSIBLE AT KBJC
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM TIME TO TIME DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER 08Z WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
CAUSING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



000
FXUS65 KPUB 211150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE FORECAST STILL GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MSTR AND
SNOW CHANCES INCREASING A LITTLE LATER TODAY OVR THE CONTDVD...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAKE COUNTY AND INTO NRN PORTIONS
OF THE WRN MTNS IN CHAFFEE COUNTY.  LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS AND ZONE 64.  THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT THE MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE.  THE ERN
SAN JUAN MTNS DO NOT GET HIT HARD WITH SNOW AND AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE
THEY WL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE CONTDVD
SHOULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS.  THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LAKE AND WRN CHAFFEE COUNTIES. ZONES 64 AND 66
SHOULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL INCHES.

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ZONE 59 WHICH INCLUDES LEADVILLE...WL SEE MORE
SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND
WL UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR THAT AREA.  IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE ZONES 64 AND 66 WL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...SO
WL ISSUE THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU
MON AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MOVE INTO THE
NRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND TELLER
COUNTY/PIKE PEAK LATE TONIGHT...BUT JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE.
AS A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS BRINGS
SOME PCPN INTO THE AREA....WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT AND IS DRY OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO...THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WL BE ANY PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TOWARD MORNING...BUT WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS AT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND REMAINS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG 140KT JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
STATE. CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CONTDVD CONTINUE
TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH POOR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
AND PLAINS TO BE MAINLY TIED TO ASSOCIATED PASSING COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN MTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL WINDS DOWN ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE AS JET CORE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RAW AND BLUSTERY DAY AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN OF POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS...THOUGH WILL LET
FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITS SELF FOR NOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH DECOUPLING WINDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORMAL COLD POCKETS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WARMING ALOFT UNDER A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY TO
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
FLIPPING SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS...WHERE AS THE GFS IS
DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EC
SOLUTION WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
DATA...WHICH HAS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
NIGHT...LATEST MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THRU MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z)
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY TOWARD MORNING WHICH COULD
REDUCE CIGS AND VSBY.  THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF OF PCPN OR LOW CIGS/VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 211150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE FORECAST STILL GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MSTR AND
SNOW CHANCES INCREASING A LITTLE LATER TODAY OVR THE CONTDVD...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAKE COUNTY AND INTO NRN PORTIONS
OF THE WRN MTNS IN CHAFFEE COUNTY.  LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS AND ZONE 64.  THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT THE MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE.  THE ERN
SAN JUAN MTNS DO NOT GET HIT HARD WITH SNOW AND AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE
THEY WL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE CONTDVD
SHOULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS.  THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LAKE AND WRN CHAFFEE COUNTIES. ZONES 64 AND 66
SHOULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL INCHES.

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ZONE 59 WHICH INCLUDES LEADVILLE...WL SEE MORE
SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND
WL UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR THAT AREA.  IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE ZONES 64 AND 66 WL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...SO
WL ISSUE THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU
MON AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MOVE INTO THE
NRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND TELLER
COUNTY/PIKE PEAK LATE TONIGHT...BUT JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE.
AS A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS BRINGS
SOME PCPN INTO THE AREA....WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT AND IS DRY OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO...THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WL BE ANY PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TOWARD MORNING...BUT WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS AT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND REMAINS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG 140KT JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
STATE. CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CONTDVD CONTINUE
TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH POOR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
AND PLAINS TO BE MAINLY TIED TO ASSOCIATED PASSING COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN MTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL WINDS DOWN ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE AS JET CORE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RAW AND BLUSTERY DAY AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN OF POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS...THOUGH WILL LET
FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITS SELF FOR NOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH DECOUPLING WINDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORMAL COLD POCKETS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WARMING ALOFT UNDER A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY TO
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
FLIPPING SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS...WHERE AS THE GFS IS
DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EC
SOLUTION WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
DATA...WHICH HAS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
NIGHT...LATEST MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THRU MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z)
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY TOWARD MORNING WHICH COULD
REDUCE CIGS AND VSBY.  THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF OF PCPN OR LOW CIGS/VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 211150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE FORECAST STILL GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MSTR AND
SNOW CHANCES INCREASING A LITTLE LATER TODAY OVR THE CONTDVD...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAKE COUNTY AND INTO NRN PORTIONS
OF THE WRN MTNS IN CHAFFEE COUNTY.  LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS AND ZONE 64.  THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT THE MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE.  THE ERN
SAN JUAN MTNS DO NOT GET HIT HARD WITH SNOW AND AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE
THEY WL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE CONTDVD
SHOULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS.  THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LAKE AND WRN CHAFFEE COUNTIES. ZONES 64 AND 66
SHOULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL INCHES.

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ZONE 59 WHICH INCLUDES LEADVILLE...WL SEE MORE
SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND
WL UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR THAT AREA.  IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE ZONES 64 AND 66 WL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...SO
WL ISSUE THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU
MON AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MOVE INTO THE
NRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND TELLER
COUNTY/PIKE PEAK LATE TONIGHT...BUT JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE.
AS A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS BRINGS
SOME PCPN INTO THE AREA....WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT AND IS DRY OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO...THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WL BE ANY PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TOWARD MORNING...BUT WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS AT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND REMAINS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG 140KT JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
STATE. CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CONTDVD CONTINUE
TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH POOR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
AND PLAINS TO BE MAINLY TIED TO ASSOCIATED PASSING COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN MTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL WINDS DOWN ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE AS JET CORE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RAW AND BLUSTERY DAY AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN OF POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS...THOUGH WILL LET
FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITS SELF FOR NOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH DECOUPLING WINDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORMAL COLD POCKETS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WARMING ALOFT UNDER A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY TO
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
FLIPPING SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS...WHERE AS THE GFS IS
DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EC
SOLUTION WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
DATA...WHICH HAS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
NIGHT...LATEST MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THRU MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z)
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY TOWARD MORNING WHICH COULD
REDUCE CIGS AND VSBY.  THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF OF PCPN OR LOW CIGS/VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 211150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE FORECAST STILL GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MSTR AND
SNOW CHANCES INCREASING A LITTLE LATER TODAY OVR THE CONTDVD...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAKE COUNTY AND INTO NRN PORTIONS
OF THE WRN MTNS IN CHAFFEE COUNTY.  LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS AND ZONE 64.  THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT THE MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE.  THE ERN
SAN JUAN MTNS DO NOT GET HIT HARD WITH SNOW AND AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE
THEY WL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE CONTDVD
SHOULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS.  THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LAKE AND WRN CHAFFEE COUNTIES. ZONES 64 AND 66
SHOULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL INCHES.

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ZONE 59 WHICH INCLUDES LEADVILLE...WL SEE MORE
SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND
WL UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR THAT AREA.  IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE ZONES 64 AND 66 WL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...SO
WL ISSUE THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU
MON AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MOVE INTO THE
NRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND TELLER
COUNTY/PIKE PEAK LATE TONIGHT...BUT JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE.
AS A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS BRINGS
SOME PCPN INTO THE AREA....WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT AND IS DRY OVR THE SERN PLAINS.  SO...THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WL BE ANY PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS TOWARD MORNING...BUT WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS AT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND REMAINS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG 140KT JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
STATE. CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CONTDVD CONTINUE
TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH POOR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
AND PLAINS TO BE MAINLY TIED TO ASSOCIATED PASSING COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN MTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL WINDS DOWN ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE AS JET CORE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RAW AND BLUSTERY DAY AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN OF POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND PROGGED H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS...THOUGH WILL LET
FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITS SELF FOR NOW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH DECOUPLING WINDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORMAL COLD POCKETS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WARMING ALOFT UNDER A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY TO
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
FLIPPING SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS...WHERE AS THE GFS IS
DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EC
SOLUTION WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
DATA...WHICH HAS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT. DESPITE DIFFERENCES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
NIGHT...LATEST MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

KCOS AND KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THRU MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z)
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MVFR OR IFR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY TOWARD MORNING WHICH COULD
REDUCE CIGS AND VSBY.  THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF OF PCPN OR LOW CIGS/VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ064-066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KGJT 211055
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING STEADILY THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY AIRPORTS BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     010-012.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-
     013.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ007>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 211055
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING STEADILY THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY AIRPORTS BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     010-012.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-
     013.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ007>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211055
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING STEADILY THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY AIRPORTS BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     010-012.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-
     013.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ007>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



000
FXUS65 KGJT 211055
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
INDICATE THE ONCOMING STORM BARRELING DOWN ON SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
JUST REACHING NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A 100KT JET STREAK DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HIGH SPEC HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE KEY IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
TODAY. HAZARDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE MID MORNING TODAY. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-70
TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY NOON EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS WHERE THE
SNOW LEVEL LINE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIAL WAA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL CHANGE OVER TO CAA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW EFFICIENCY
BECOMING QUITE HIGH. THE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF COLORADO BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPS SOUTH. EXPECTING THAT THE GORGE EFFECT FROM OURAY TO RED MTN
COULD END UP QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WILL
ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO
THE SFC AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR END OF STORM EXPECTATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
STORM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
THE NEW 06Z GFS COMING IN A LITTLE DEEPER ONCE AGAIN...LEANING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MORE
PERSISTENT/CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO GROW.
SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE GFS WILL DIG THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE BASED ON
TRAJECTORY OF H3 SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE. NO LONGER EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CLOSE OFF SO THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DIGGING WILL GET THE SAN JUANS GOING AS WELL. THE
VALLEYS ARE ANOTHER BATTLE AND WILL DIVE INTO THOSE DETAILS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH CURRENT STORM...NO PLANS ON INTRODUCING
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS TO OUR ALREADY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION.

DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING STEADILY THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY AIRPORTS BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AS VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO MIX OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ002-
     010-012.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-
     013.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ007>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ005.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 210604
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NW AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TOMORROW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODELS PICKING UP ON SOME PRECIP FOR
AREAS MAINLY N OF THE SAN JUANS WITH A RAIN TO RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR
LOWER VALLEYS AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  MAYBE 1 TO 3 INCHES...GENERALLY FOR THE NRN MTNS THOUGH
THE CENTRAL MTNS MIGHT SEE THAT MUCH TOO. HOWEVER...THESE AMTS
HAVE NOTHING ON WHAT WE CAN EXPECT STARTING TOMORROW.

THE JET STREAM THAT HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH FOR QUITE SOME TIME
HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO BECOME A
BIT MORE MERIDIONAL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS PUTS WESTERN COLORADO
IN THE COLDER SECTOR WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS REGION WILL CAUSE
PLENTY OF UPLIFT FOR EFFICIENT SNOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN PLACE. ALL
THE ABOVE MEANS WE ARE PRIMED FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

SPOTTY PRECIP WILL START SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE
STEADY NOON ONWARDS WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A FOOT
TO OVER 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE PARK/GORE AND ELKHEAD MTNS MAINLY
DUE TO A WRLY FLOW THAT WILL BECOME NRLY AS THE STORM EVOLVES ALLOWING
SNOW TO KEEP PILING UP. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
CENTRAL MTNS. THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WRN SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY
SEE OVER A FOOT BUT NOT SOLD ON SRN PORTIONS SO LEFT IN ADVISORY
FOR NOW...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE. ISSUED A WARNING FOR
THE CRAIG/MEEKER/HAYDEN AREA WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
THOUGH AREAS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE ZONE WILL SEE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. ALSO ANTICIPATE WARNING AMTS EAST OF RIFLE
ALONG I-70 INCREASING AS YOU TRAVEL TO VAIL PASS. FOR RIFLE AND
AREAS WEST ALONG I-70 THROUGH DEBEQUE CANYON MAY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

AS THE 140KT+ JET MOVES OVERHEAD...SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN CAUSING GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO POSSIBLY 50
MPH (AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS) CREATING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT MOST OF THESE WINDS WILL
BE FELT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THOUGH WINDS ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER
COULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SNOW CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE 140-150KT CORE OF THE 300 MB JET MOVES
FROM NORTHEASTERN UT INTO SOUTHWESTERN CO...AND A 700 MB COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
MONDAY...AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE POOR.
WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTH...EXPECT STRONG
WINDS OVER THE MTNS CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. A FEW AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH...
ESPECIALLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE ACROSS THE PARK AND GORE RANGES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS VAIL PASS ON MONDAY. FOR THE ERN UINTA
MTNS...CONCERN ABOUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND UPPER JET AND ITS IMPACT ON TRAVEL PROMPTED THE WINTER STORM
WATCH THERE DESPITE SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN.

THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE VERY MOIST DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOWERS TO OR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL IN COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A
BIT CONCERNED THAT THE 12Z Q-G DIAGNOSTICS FAVORED LARGE-SCALE
DOWNWARD MOTION MONDAY...THOUGH. NORTH FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE FLATTOPS/ROAN PLATEAU SHOULD KEEP SNOW IN THE
CRAIG AND MEEKER AREAS MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE
FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS.

THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEM SLOWER TO PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. CHANCE OF SNOW PERSISTS
IN THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS TUE. A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER TEMPORARY RIDGING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
MOVES INTO WA/OR. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH IT ACROSS OUR AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN DIGS IT DOWN THE CA COAST WED
NIGHT AND NOT PREFERRED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE TREND OF
THE WAVE BEING FLATTER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...THOUGH ECMWF
SEEMS TO VACILLATE WITH THE AMPLITUDE BETWEEN ITS EVENING AND
MORNING MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z...LOWERING VIS AND CIGS AT KASE...KEGE...AND K5SM.
KVEL`S VISIBILITY WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH LOW
CIGS STILL BEING AN ISSUE.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE NOTICABLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AIRPORTS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND FILTER INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
AND COLORADO AS WELL. LLWS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR AS WINDS
BEGIN TO FILTER DOWN TO THE SFC. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL MTN TAF SITES AND VALLEYS
EAST OF GJT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ002-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-
     013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ007>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ005.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 210604
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NW AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TOMORROW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODELS PICKING UP ON SOME PRECIP FOR
AREAS MAINLY N OF THE SAN JUANS WITH A RAIN TO RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR
LOWER VALLEYS AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  MAYBE 1 TO 3 INCHES...GENERALLY FOR THE NRN MTNS THOUGH
THE CENTRAL MTNS MIGHT SEE THAT MUCH TOO. HOWEVER...THESE AMTS
HAVE NOTHING ON WHAT WE CAN EXPECT STARTING TOMORROW.

THE JET STREAM THAT HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH FOR QUITE SOME TIME
HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO BECOME A
BIT MORE MERIDIONAL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS PUTS WESTERN COLORADO
IN THE COLDER SECTOR WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS REGION WILL CAUSE
PLENTY OF UPLIFT FOR EFFICIENT SNOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN PLACE. ALL
THE ABOVE MEANS WE ARE PRIMED FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

SPOTTY PRECIP WILL START SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE
STEADY NOON ONWARDS WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A FOOT
TO OVER 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE PARK/GORE AND ELKHEAD MTNS MAINLY
DUE TO A WRLY FLOW THAT WILL BECOME NRLY AS THE STORM EVOLVES ALLOWING
SNOW TO KEEP PILING UP. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
CENTRAL MTNS. THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WRN SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY
SEE OVER A FOOT BUT NOT SOLD ON SRN PORTIONS SO LEFT IN ADVISORY
FOR NOW...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE. ISSUED A WARNING FOR
THE CRAIG/MEEKER/HAYDEN AREA WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
THOUGH AREAS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE ZONE WILL SEE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. ALSO ANTICIPATE WARNING AMTS EAST OF RIFLE
ALONG I-70 INCREASING AS YOU TRAVEL TO VAIL PASS. FOR RIFLE AND
AREAS WEST ALONG I-70 THROUGH DEBEQUE CANYON MAY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

AS THE 140KT+ JET MOVES OVERHEAD...SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN CAUSING GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO POSSIBLY 50
MPH (AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS) CREATING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT MOST OF THESE WINDS WILL
BE FELT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THOUGH WINDS ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER
COULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SNOW CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE 140-150KT CORE OF THE 300 MB JET MOVES
FROM NORTHEASTERN UT INTO SOUTHWESTERN CO...AND A 700 MB COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
MONDAY...AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE POOR.
WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTH...EXPECT STRONG
WINDS OVER THE MTNS CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. A FEW AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH...
ESPECIALLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE ACROSS THE PARK AND GORE RANGES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS VAIL PASS ON MONDAY. FOR THE ERN UINTA
MTNS...CONCERN ABOUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND UPPER JET AND ITS IMPACT ON TRAVEL PROMPTED THE WINTER STORM
WATCH THERE DESPITE SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN.

THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE VERY MOIST DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOWERS TO OR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL IN COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A
BIT CONCERNED THAT THE 12Z Q-G DIAGNOSTICS FAVORED LARGE-SCALE
DOWNWARD MOTION MONDAY...THOUGH. NORTH FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE FLATTOPS/ROAN PLATEAU SHOULD KEEP SNOW IN THE
CRAIG AND MEEKER AREAS MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE
FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS.

THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEM SLOWER TO PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. CHANCE OF SNOW PERSISTS
IN THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS TUE. A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER TEMPORARY RIDGING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
MOVES INTO WA/OR. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH IT ACROSS OUR AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN DIGS IT DOWN THE CA COAST WED
NIGHT AND NOT PREFERRED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE TREND OF
THE WAVE BEING FLATTER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...THOUGH ECMWF
SEEMS TO VACILLATE WITH THE AMPLITUDE BETWEEN ITS EVENING AND
MORNING MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z...LOWERING VIS AND CIGS AT KASE...KEGE...AND K5SM.
KVEL`S VISIBILITY WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH LOW
CIGS STILL BEING AN ISSUE.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE NOTICABLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AIRPORTS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND FILTER INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
AND COLORADO AS WELL. LLWS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR AS WINDS
BEGIN TO FILTER DOWN TO THE SFC. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL MTN TAF SITES AND VALLEYS
EAST OF GJT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ002-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-
     013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ007>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ005.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM



000
FXUS65 KGJT 210604
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NW AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TOMORROW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODELS PICKING UP ON SOME PRECIP FOR
AREAS MAINLY N OF THE SAN JUANS WITH A RAIN TO RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR
LOWER VALLEYS AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  MAYBE 1 TO 3 INCHES...GENERALLY FOR THE NRN MTNS THOUGH
THE CENTRAL MTNS MIGHT SEE THAT MUCH TOO. HOWEVER...THESE AMTS
HAVE NOTHING ON WHAT WE CAN EXPECT STARTING TOMORROW.

THE JET STREAM THAT HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH FOR QUITE SOME TIME
HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO BECOME A
BIT MORE MERIDIONAL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS PUTS WESTERN COLORADO
IN THE COLDER SECTOR WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS REGION WILL CAUSE
PLENTY OF UPLIFT FOR EFFICIENT SNOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN PLACE. ALL
THE ABOVE MEANS WE ARE PRIMED FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

SPOTTY PRECIP WILL START SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE
STEADY NOON ONWARDS WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A FOOT
TO OVER 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE PARK/GORE AND ELKHEAD MTNS MAINLY
DUE TO A WRLY FLOW THAT WILL BECOME NRLY AS THE STORM EVOLVES ALLOWING
SNOW TO KEEP PILING UP. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
CENTRAL MTNS. THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WRN SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY
SEE OVER A FOOT BUT NOT SOLD ON SRN PORTIONS SO LEFT IN ADVISORY
FOR NOW...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE. ISSUED A WARNING FOR
THE CRAIG/MEEKER/HAYDEN AREA WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
THOUGH AREAS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE ZONE WILL SEE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. ALSO ANTICIPATE WARNING AMTS EAST OF RIFLE
ALONG I-70 INCREASING AS YOU TRAVEL TO VAIL PASS. FOR RIFLE AND
AREAS WEST ALONG I-70 THROUGH DEBEQUE CANYON MAY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

AS THE 140KT+ JET MOVES OVERHEAD...SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN CAUSING GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO POSSIBLY 50
MPH (AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS) CREATING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT MOST OF THESE WINDS WILL
BE FELT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THOUGH WINDS ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER
COULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SNOW CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE 140-150KT CORE OF THE 300 MB JET MOVES
FROM NORTHEASTERN UT INTO SOUTHWESTERN CO...AND A 700 MB COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
MONDAY...AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE POOR.
WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTH...EXPECT STRONG
WINDS OVER THE MTNS CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. A FEW AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH...
ESPECIALLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE ACROSS THE PARK AND GORE RANGES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS VAIL PASS ON MONDAY. FOR THE ERN UINTA
MTNS...CONCERN ABOUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND UPPER JET AND ITS IMPACT ON TRAVEL PROMPTED THE WINTER STORM
WATCH THERE DESPITE SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN.

THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE VERY MOIST DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOWERS TO OR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL IN COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A
BIT CONCERNED THAT THE 12Z Q-G DIAGNOSTICS FAVORED LARGE-SCALE
DOWNWARD MOTION MONDAY...THOUGH. NORTH FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE FLATTOPS/ROAN PLATEAU SHOULD KEEP SNOW IN THE
CRAIG AND MEEKER AREAS MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE
FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS.

THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEM SLOWER TO PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. CHANCE OF SNOW PERSISTS
IN THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS TUE. A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER TEMPORARY RIDGING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
MOVES INTO WA/OR. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH IT ACROSS OUR AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN DIGS IT DOWN THE CA COAST WED
NIGHT AND NOT PREFERRED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE TREND OF
THE WAVE BEING FLATTER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...THOUGH ECMWF
SEEMS TO VACILLATE WITH THE AMPLITUDE BETWEEN ITS EVENING AND
MORNING MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z...LOWERING VIS AND CIGS AT KASE...KEGE...AND K5SM.
KVEL`S VISIBILITY WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH LOW
CIGS STILL BEING AN ISSUE.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE NOTICABLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AIRPORTS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND FILTER INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
AND COLORADO AS WELL. LLWS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR AS WINDS
BEGIN TO FILTER DOWN TO THE SFC. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL MTN TAF SITES AND VALLEYS
EAST OF GJT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ002-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-
     013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ007>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ005.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 210604
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NW AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TOMORROW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODELS PICKING UP ON SOME PRECIP FOR
AREAS MAINLY N OF THE SAN JUANS WITH A RAIN TO RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR
LOWER VALLEYS AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  MAYBE 1 TO 3 INCHES...GENERALLY FOR THE NRN MTNS THOUGH
THE CENTRAL MTNS MIGHT SEE THAT MUCH TOO. HOWEVER...THESE AMTS
HAVE NOTHING ON WHAT WE CAN EXPECT STARTING TOMORROW.

THE JET STREAM THAT HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH FOR QUITE SOME TIME
HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO BECOME A
BIT MORE MERIDIONAL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS PUTS WESTERN COLORADO
IN THE COLDER SECTOR WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS REGION WILL CAUSE
PLENTY OF UPLIFT FOR EFFICIENT SNOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN PLACE. ALL
THE ABOVE MEANS WE ARE PRIMED FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

SPOTTY PRECIP WILL START SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE
STEADY NOON ONWARDS WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A FOOT
TO OVER 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE PARK/GORE AND ELKHEAD MTNS MAINLY
DUE TO A WRLY FLOW THAT WILL BECOME NRLY AS THE STORM EVOLVES ALLOWING
SNOW TO KEEP PILING UP. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
CENTRAL MTNS. THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WRN SAN JUANS WILL LIKELY
SEE OVER A FOOT BUT NOT SOLD ON SRN PORTIONS SO LEFT IN ADVISORY
FOR NOW...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE. ISSUED A WARNING FOR
THE CRAIG/MEEKER/HAYDEN AREA WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
THOUGH AREAS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE ZONE WILL SEE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. ALSO ANTICIPATE WARNING AMTS EAST OF RIFLE
ALONG I-70 INCREASING AS YOU TRAVEL TO VAIL PASS. FOR RIFLE AND
AREAS WEST ALONG I-70 THROUGH DEBEQUE CANYON MAY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES
THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

AS THE 140KT+ JET MOVES OVERHEAD...SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN CAUSING GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO POSSIBLY 50
MPH (AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS) CREATING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT MOST OF THESE WINDS WILL
BE FELT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THOUGH WINDS ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER
COULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SNOW CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE 140-150KT CORE OF THE 300 MB JET MOVES
FROM NORTHEASTERN UT INTO SOUTHWESTERN CO...AND A 700 MB COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
MONDAY...AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE POOR.
WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTH...EXPECT STRONG
WINDS OVER THE MTNS CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. A FEW AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH...
ESPECIALLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE ACROSS THE PARK AND GORE RANGES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS VAIL PASS ON MONDAY. FOR THE ERN UINTA
MTNS...CONCERN ABOUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND UPPER JET AND ITS IMPACT ON TRAVEL PROMPTED THE WINTER STORM
WATCH THERE DESPITE SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN.

THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE VERY MOIST DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE LOWERS TO OR BELOW MTN TOP LEVEL IN COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A
BIT CONCERNED THAT THE 12Z Q-G DIAGNOSTICS FAVORED LARGE-SCALE
DOWNWARD MOTION MONDAY...THOUGH. NORTH FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE FLATTOPS/ROAN PLATEAU SHOULD KEEP SNOW IN THE
CRAIG AND MEEKER AREAS MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE
FOR THE STEAMBOAT SPGS.

THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEM SLOWER TO PUSH EAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. CHANCE OF SNOW PERSISTS
IN THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS TUE. A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER TEMPORARY RIDGING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
MOVES INTO WA/OR. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH IT ACROSS OUR AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE THE CANADIAN DIGS IT DOWN THE CA COAST WED
NIGHT AND NOT PREFERRED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE TREND OF
THE WAVE BEING FLATTER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...THOUGH ECMWF
SEEMS TO VACILLATE WITH THE AMPLITUDE BETWEEN ITS EVENING AND
MORNING MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z...LOWERING VIS AND CIGS AT KASE...KEGE...AND K5SM.
KVEL`S VISIBILITY WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH LOW
CIGS STILL BEING AN ISSUE.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE NOTICABLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AIRPORTS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND FILTER INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
AND COLORADO AS WELL. LLWS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR AS WINDS
BEGIN TO FILTER DOWN TO THE SFC. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL MTN TAF SITES AND VALLEYS
EAST OF GJT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR COZ002-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-
     013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ003.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ007>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ005.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM



000
FXUS65 KPUB 210548
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1048 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

REINITIALZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

REINITIALZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

...STRONG JET TO BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...

A STRONG JET STREAM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS
JET...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW
TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION.

TONIGHT...

A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAINLY
THIS EVENING. A BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SNOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE DRY. HIGHER CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN BY MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN
WITH MAINLY 20S PLAINS AND TEENS MOST OTHER MTN/VALLEY REGIONS.

TOMORROW...

SNOW WILL INCREASE BOTH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE GREATER
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. A WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO AFFECT FOR THIS REGION
BY LATE MORNING. A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER
VALLEY AREAS OF LAKE COUNTY AND MID MTN REGIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...A MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50S. WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS PICK UP A BIT ON THE
PLAINS...WITH WEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MOVING AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER JET DRIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HAVE A 150 KT CORE AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE PAC NW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND NOSING INTO NW COLORADO ON MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG N-NW FLOW WINDS AFFECTING THE STATE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL HIT THE CENTRAL MTS THE HARDEST WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW...HENCE THE HIGHLIGHTS.
HOWEVER...THE REMAINDER OF THE MTS AS WELL AS THE IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH SNOW
LINGERING INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND S
SANGRES. AS FOR TEMPS...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
THE E PLAINS MON MORNING SO MAX TEMP ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY
ON FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
40S...BUT MAY WELL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. COLD AIR WILL BE
FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40F. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR ALL AREAS
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS BY TUE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...WED LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
REGION AWAITS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO NEAR 50F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO FOR CHRISTMAS...THOUGH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ONCE AGAIN PUSHING THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH. FOR NOW...FORECAST GRIDS HAVE SNOW BEGINNING ALONG THE
CONTDVD VERY EARLY THU MORNING...WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING SOMEWHAT
MILD IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F. A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR...WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH FRI AND SAT
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL
SEEMS TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE MTS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TOMORROW AS A PACIFIC
STORM MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.

SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HEAVY...WIND-DRIVEN SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 210548
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1048 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

REINITIALZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

REINITIALZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

...STRONG JET TO BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...

A STRONG JET STREAM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS
JET...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW
TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION.

TONIGHT...

A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAINLY
THIS EVENING. A BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SNOW BEGINS TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE DRY. HIGHER CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN BY MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN
WITH MAINLY 20S PLAINS AND TEENS MOST OTHER MTN/VALLEY REGIONS.

TOMORROW...

SNOW WILL INCREASE BOTH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE GREATER
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. A WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO AFFECT FOR THIS REGION
BY LATE MORNING. A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER
VALLEY AREAS OF LAKE COUNTY AND MID MTN REGIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...A MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50S. WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS PICK UP A BIT ON THE
PLAINS...WITH WEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MOVING AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER JET DRIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HAVE A 150 KT CORE AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE PAC NW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND NOSING INTO NW COLORADO ON MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG N-NW FLOW WINDS AFFECTING THE STATE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL HIT THE CENTRAL MTS THE HARDEST WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW...HENCE THE HIGHLIGHTS.
HOWEVER...THE REMAINDER OF THE MTS AS WELL AS THE IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH SNOW
LINGERING INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND S
SANGRES. AS FOR TEMPS...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
THE E PLAINS MON MORNING SO MAX TEMP ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY
ON FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
40S...BUT MAY WELL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. COLD AIR WILL BE
FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40F. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR ALL AREAS
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS BY TUE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...WED LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
REGION AWAITS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO NEAR 50F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EC AND GFS MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO FOR CHRISTMAS...THOUGH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ONCE AGAIN PUSHING THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH. FOR NOW...FORECAST GRIDS HAVE SNOW BEGINNING ALONG THE
CONTDVD VERY EARLY THU MORNING...WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING SOMEWHAT
MILD IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F. A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR...WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH FRI AND SAT
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL
SEEMS TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE MTS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TOMORROW AS A PACIFIC
STORM MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.

SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HEAVY...WIND-DRIVEN SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW




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