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000
FXUS65 KGJT 210615
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. UNSETTLED WX WILL START NEAR 12Z
AND DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FROPA AROUND 00Z.
OCNL MVFR IS POSSIBLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD NOR AFFECT TAF SITES TOO GREATLY. ANTICIPATE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN QUICKLY
RETURN TO PREVIOUS CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
COMMON. THIS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW THEN
QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER THAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 210615
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. UNSETTLED WX WILL START NEAR 12Z
AND DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FROPA AROUND 00Z.
OCNL MVFR IS POSSIBLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD NOR AFFECT TAF SITES TOO GREATLY. ANTICIPATE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN QUICKLY
RETURN TO PREVIOUS CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
COMMON. THIS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW THEN
QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER THAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR



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000
FXUS65 KPUB 210526
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ADDED SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME LOW STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF BOTH SITES
TOWARD MORNING. KALS SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH THE BUFKIT SOUNDING IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME PERIOD...WL NOT
INCLUDE A LOW CIG IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




000
FXUS65 KPUB 210526
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ADDED SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME LOW STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF BOTH SITES
TOWARD MORNING. KALS SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH THE BUFKIT SOUNDING IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME PERIOD...WL NOT
INCLUDE A LOW CIG IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



000
FXUS65 KPUB 210327
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDENSDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE HARD TO TELL IF IT WILL BE FOG...LOW CLOUDS OR BOTH.
BUT...IN ANY EVENT...COULD PROVE TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR OR EVEN LIFR JUST DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE IT COMES IN.
DON`T EXPECT IT WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE KPUB OR KCOS TAF
SITES...BUT IT MIGHT HAVE A SHOT.  WON`T PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER.

ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPOTTY SUCH CONDITIONS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES BY 00Z.  THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z.  IN GENERAL...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG IMPACTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES 06Z-15Z.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE KALS TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.  ALL PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED IN CURRENT TAF FORECASTS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 210327
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDENSDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE HARD TO TELL IF IT WILL BE FOG...LOW CLOUDS OR BOTH.
BUT...IN ANY EVENT...COULD PROVE TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR OR EVEN LIFR JUST DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE IT COMES IN.
DON`T EXPECT IT WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE KPUB OR KCOS TAF
SITES...BUT IT MIGHT HAVE A SHOT.  WON`T PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER.

ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPOTTY SUCH CONDITIONS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES BY 00Z.  THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z.  IN GENERAL...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG IMPACTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES 06Z-15Z.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE KALS TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.  ALL PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED IN CURRENT TAF FORECASTS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOU 210218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
818 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MEAGER CONVECTION IS GONE AS WELL AS NEARLY ALL THE CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE UPSTREAM ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES IS QUITE SPARSE
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL. WILL ADJUST CLOUD
COVER AND ZERO OUT POPS AND WEATHER. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT BAD SO WE`LL KEEP THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST BRINGS IN
WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AT WEAKER SPEEDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SOME OF THESE MOVING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
AIRMASS DOWN BELOW IS TOO STABLE AND THE ONLY EFFECT MAY BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TO BRING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY
OVER LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE WRF SIMULATED
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THIS NICELY...SHOWING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE
TUESDAY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...WHILE THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOWSHOWERS WILL FALL TO 9000FT
WHERE A FEW INCHES IN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CAPE AND DECENT QG...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WITH PREDOMINANT WNW FLOW. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETUP WILL AID IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH COULD BRING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BRINGING DOWN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE NW REGION OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL GOING STRONG AT DIA. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.  NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 210218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
818 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MEAGER CONVECTION IS GONE AS WELL AS NEARLY ALL THE CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE UPSTREAM ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES IS QUITE SPARSE
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL. WILL ADJUST CLOUD
COVER AND ZERO OUT POPS AND WEATHER. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT BAD SO WE`LL KEEP THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST BRINGS IN
WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AT WEAKER SPEEDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SOME OF THESE MOVING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
AIRMASS DOWN BELOW IS TOO STABLE AND THE ONLY EFFECT MAY BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TO BRING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY
OVER LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE WRF SIMULATED
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THIS NICELY...SHOWING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE
TUESDAY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...WHILE THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOWSHOWERS WILL FALL TO 9000FT
WHERE A FEW INCHES IN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CAPE AND DECENT QG...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WITH PREDOMINANT WNW FLOW. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETUP WILL AID IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH COULD BRING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BRINGING DOWN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE NW REGION OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL GOING STRONG AT DIA. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.  NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RJK




000
FXUS65 KBOU 210218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
818 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MEAGER CONVECTION IS GONE AS WELL AS NEARLY ALL THE CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE UPSTREAM ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES IS QUITE SPARSE
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL. WILL ADJUST CLOUD
COVER AND ZERO OUT POPS AND WEATHER. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
NOT LOOKING ALL THAT BAD SO WE`LL KEEP THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST BRINGS IN
WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AT WEAKER SPEEDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SOME OF THESE MOVING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
AIRMASS DOWN BELOW IS TOO STABLE AND THE ONLY EFFECT MAY BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TO BRING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY
OVER LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE WRF SIMULATED
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THIS NICELY...SHOWING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE
TUESDAY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...WHILE THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOWSHOWERS WILL FALL TO 9000FT
WHERE A FEW INCHES IN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CAPE AND DECENT QG...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WITH PREDOMINANT WNW FLOW. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETUP WILL AID IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH COULD BRING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BRINGING DOWN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE NW REGION OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL GOING STRONG AT DIA. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.  NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RJK



000
FXUS65 KGJT 202327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z THIS
EVENING...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN VISUAL. AFTER 15Z
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL BE
DROPPING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 202327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z THIS
EVENING...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN VISUAL. AFTER 15Z
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL BE
DROPPING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 202131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z/TUES...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN
VISUAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 202131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z/TUES...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN
VISUAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 202131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z/TUES...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN
VISUAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL



000
FXUS65 KGJT 202131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z/TUES...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN
VISUAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KPUB 202110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDENSDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE HARD TO TELL IF IT WILL BE FOG...LOW CLOUDS OR BOTH.
BUT...IN ANY EVENT...COULD PROVE TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR OR EVEN LIFR JUST DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE IT COMES IN.
DON`T EXPECT IT WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE KPUB OR KCOS TAF
SITES...BUT IT MIGHT HAVE A SHOT.  WON`T PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER.

ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPOTTY SUCH CONDITIONS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES BY 00Z.  THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z.  IN GENERAL...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG IMPACTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES 06Z-15Z.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE KALS TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.  ALL PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED IN CURRENT TAF FORECASTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW




000
FXUS65 KPUB 202110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDENSDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE HARD TO TELL IF IT WILL BE FOG...LOW CLOUDS OR BOTH.
BUT...IN ANY EVENT...COULD PROVE TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR OR EVEN LIFR JUST DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE IT COMES IN.
DON`T EXPECT IT WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE KPUB OR KCOS TAF
SITES...BUT IT MIGHT HAVE A SHOT.  WON`T PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER.

ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPOTTY SUCH CONDITIONS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES BY 00Z.  THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z.  IN GENERAL...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG IMPACTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES 06Z-15Z.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE KALS TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.  ALL PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED IN CURRENT TAF FORECASTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KBOU 202109
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST BRINGS IN
WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AT WEAKER SPEEDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SOME OF THESE MOVING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
AIRMASS DOWN BELOW IS TOO STABLE AND THE ONLY EFFECT MAY BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TO BRING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY
OVER LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE WRF SIMULATED
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THIS NICELY...SHOWING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE
TUESDAY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...WHILE THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOWSHOWERS WILL FALL TO 9000FT
WHERE A FEW INCHES IN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CAPE AND DECENT QG...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WITH PREDOMINANT WNW FLOW. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETUP WILL AID IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH COULD BRING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BRINGING DOWN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE NW REGION OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SSELY WINDS THIS
AFTN/EVNG WILL BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA UNTIL 03Z ...WHERE KBJC WILL
BE LIGHTER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OUTFLOW GUSTS FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AS
SOME RECENT HIGH RES MODELS SHOW. NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP WINDS SLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS. SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 202109
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST BRINGS IN
WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ON
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AT WEAKER SPEEDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SOME OF THESE MOVING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THE
AIRMASS DOWN BELOW IS TOO STABLE AND THE ONLY EFFECT MAY BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TO BRING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY
OVER LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE WRF SIMULATED
FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THIS NICELY...SHOWING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE
TUESDAY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...WHILE THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOWSHOWERS WILL FALL TO 9000FT
WHERE A FEW INCHES IN ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED CAPE AND DECENT QG...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WITH PREDOMINANT WNW FLOW. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETUP WILL AID IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH COULD BRING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BRINGING DOWN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE NW REGION OF
THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SSELY WINDS THIS
AFTN/EVNG WILL BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA UNTIL 03Z ...WHERE KBJC WILL
BE LIGHTER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OUTFLOW GUSTS FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AS
SOME RECENT HIGH RES MODELS SHOW. NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN
AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP WINDS SLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS. SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 201738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

REINITIALIZED SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
18Z-03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. BE
ADVISED THAT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 201738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

REINITIALIZED SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
18Z-03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. BE
ADVISED THAT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 201738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

REINITIALIZED SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
18Z-03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. BE
ADVISED THAT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KPUB 201738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

REINITIALIZED SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
18Z-03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. BE
ADVISED THAT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



000
FXUS65 KGJT 201700
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE...OR OPEN WAVE DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT...REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN FAVORING THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THIS
PRECIP WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARM THOUGH THIS CHANGES TOMORROW.

FOR THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
COLORADO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. BUT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
WORKING INTO NEVADA...STRENGTHENING SE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH STORMS AND SHOWERS
INCREASING IN SE UT AND SW CO BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.

TUESDAY THE NAM IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALL MODELS BEGIN TO
LIFT THE BEST FORCING TO THE NE ACROSS IDAHO. THIS WOULD GENERALLY
LIMIT SHOWERS IN THIS FORECAST AREA BUT FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 0.9 INCHES
WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH-
FACING SLOPES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITHIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 5C OR WARMER. STILL
CONVECTION WILL DRIVE SNOW FLAKES LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT BUT WITH
LITTLE SURVIVABLE ACCUMULATION. BREEZY SE-SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH WYOMING-MONTANA WITH THE ENTRANCE TAIL
OF THE 50KT JET DRAGGING ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS
COLD ADVECTION AND A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SNOW
LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 8500-9500FT OVERNIGHT BUT RISES AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO NE UTAH ON WEDNESDAY THAT
ENDS SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST SHOWERS
END BY MIDNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER COLORADO MTNS. WITH
CLEARING SKIES A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BENIGN WEATHER SETS UP THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE PAC
NW DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE PLAINS
WHILE WE STAY UNDER SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. A DEEP
TROUGH COMES ASHORE SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY BRINGING SOME PRECIP FOR MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
EC AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR
OUT...DO EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z/TUES...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN
VISUAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KBOU 201657
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP...CUMULUS ALREADY BUILDING...AND MONITORING THE
HRRR AND RUC TRENDS FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE
COULD SEE SOME MOVING EAST OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BUT BELIEVE
THIS WILL END ONLY IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW SLIGHTLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND SEEING MOISTURE MOVE UP FROM THE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME SSELY
THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW...WHERE KBJC WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER. WINDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS.  SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




000
FXUS65 KBOU 201657
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP...CUMULUS ALREADY BUILDING...AND MONITORING THE
HRRR AND RUC TRENDS FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE
COULD SEE SOME MOVING EAST OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BUT BELIEVE
THIS WILL END ONLY IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW SLIGHTLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND SEEING MOISTURE MOVE UP FROM THE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME SSELY
THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW...WHERE KBJC WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER. WINDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS.  SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 200944
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BE SSELY THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 200944
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SWLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BE SSELY THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



000
FXUS65 KPUB 200902
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
302 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE OVER THE MTS. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF KIOWA...PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE LOW CIGS WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
DISSIPATE TUE MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 200902
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
302 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE OVER THE MTS. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF KIOWA...PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE LOW CIGS WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
DISSIPATE TUE MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KGJT 200843
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE...OR OPEN WAVE DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT...REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN FAVORING THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THIS
PRECIP WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARM THOUGH THIS CHANGES TOMORROW.

FOR THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
COLORADO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. BUT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
WORKING INTO NEVADA...STRENGTHENING SE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH STORMS AND SHOWERS
INCREASING IN SE UT AND SW CO BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.

TUESDAY THE NAM IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALL MODELS BEGIN TO
LIFT THE BEST FORCING TO THE NE ACROSS IDAHO. THIS WOULD GENERALLY
LIMIT SHOWERS IN THIS FORECAST AREA BUT FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 0.9 INCHES
WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH-
FACING SLOPES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITHIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 5C OR WARMER. STILL
CONVECTION WILL DRIVE SNOW FLAKES LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT BUT WITH
LITTLE SURVIVABLE ACCUMULATION. BREEZY SE-SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH WYOMING-MONTANA WITH THE ENTRANCE TAIL
OF THE 50KT JET DRAGGING ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS
COLDADVECTION AND A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SNOW
LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 8500-9500FT OVERNIGHT BUT RISES AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO NE UTAH ON WEDNESDAY THAT
ENDS SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST SHOWERS
END BY MIDNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER COLORADO MTNS. WITH
CLEARING SKIES A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BENIGN WEATHER SETS UP THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE PAC
NW DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE PLAINS
WHILE WE STAY UNDER SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. A DEEP
TROUGH COMES ASHORE SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY BRINGING SOME PRECIP FOR MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
EC AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR
OUT...DO EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ATTM AS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO START FIRING AROUND 18Z OR SO
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL
MTNS. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALL
POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. VCTS LOOKS A SAFE BET
FOR KTEX WHILE LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ANY CELLS WILL AFFECT KASE
OR KEGE SO WILL KEEP OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. REMAINING TAF SITES CAN
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND VFR. FOR THAT MATTER...EXPECT VFR FOR
ENTIRE CWA WITH VERY MINIMAL OCCURRENCES OF MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTN.
MOST PRECIP WILL END BY 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200843
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE...OR OPEN WAVE DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT...REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN FAVORING THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THIS
PRECIP WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARM THOUGH THIS CHANGES TOMORROW.

FOR THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
COLORADO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. BUT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
WORKING INTO NEVADA...STRENGTHENING SE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH STORMS AND SHOWERS
INCREASING IN SE UT AND SW CO BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.

TUESDAY THE NAM IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALL MODELS BEGIN TO
LIFT THE BEST FORCING TO THE NE ACROSS IDAHO. THIS WOULD GENERALLY
LIMIT SHOWERS IN THIS FORECAST AREA BUT FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 0.9 INCHES
WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH-
FACING SLOPES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITHIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 5C OR WARMER. STILL
CONVECTION WILL DRIVE SNOW FLAKES LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT BUT WITH
LITTLE SURVIVABLE ACCUMULATION. BREEZY SE-SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH WYOMING-MONTANA WITH THE ENTRANCE TAIL
OF THE 50KT JET DRAGGING ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS
COLDADVECTION AND A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SNOW
LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 8500-9500FT OVERNIGHT BUT RISES AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO NE UTAH ON WEDNESDAY THAT
ENDS SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST SHOWERS
END BY MIDNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER COLORADO MTNS. WITH
CLEARING SKIES A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BENIGN WEATHER SETS UP THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE PAC
NW DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE PLAINS
WHILE WE STAY UNDER SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. A DEEP
TROUGH COMES ASHORE SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY BRINGING SOME PRECIP FOR MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
EC AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR
OUT...DO EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ATTM AS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO START FIRING AROUND 18Z OR SO
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL
MTNS. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALL
POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. VCTS LOOKS A SAFE BET
FOR KTEX WHILE LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ANY CELLS WILL AFFECT KASE
OR KEGE SO WILL KEEP OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. REMAINING TAF SITES CAN
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND VFR. FOR THAT MATTER...EXPECT VFR FOR
ENTIRE CWA WITH VERY MINIMAL OCCURRENCES OF MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTN.
MOST PRECIP WILL END BY 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200843
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE...OR OPEN WAVE DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT...REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN FAVORING THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THIS
PRECIP WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARM THOUGH THIS CHANGES TOMORROW.

FOR THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
COLORADO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. BUT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
WORKING INTO NEVADA...STRENGTHENING SE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH STORMS AND SHOWERS
INCREASING IN SE UT AND SW CO BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.

TUESDAY THE NAM IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALL MODELS BEGIN TO
LIFT THE BEST FORCING TO THE NE ACROSS IDAHO. THIS WOULD GENERALLY
LIMIT SHOWERS IN THIS FORECAST AREA BUT FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 0.9 INCHES
WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH-
FACING SLOPES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITHIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 5C OR WARMER. STILL
CONVECTION WILL DRIVE SNOW FLAKES LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT BUT WITH
LITTLE SURVIVABLE ACCUMULATION. BREEZY SE-SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH WYOMING-MONTANA WITH THE ENTRANCE TAIL
OF THE 50KT JET DRAGGING ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS
COLDADVECTION AND A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SNOW
LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 8500-9500FT OVERNIGHT BUT RISES AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO NE UTAH ON WEDNESDAY THAT
ENDS SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST SHOWERS
END BY MIDNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER COLORADO MTNS. WITH
CLEARING SKIES A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BENIGN WEATHER SETS UP THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE PAC
NW DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE PLAINS
WHILE WE STAY UNDER SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. A DEEP
TROUGH COMES ASHORE SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY BRINGING SOME PRECIP FOR MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
EC AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR
OUT...DO EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ATTM AS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO START FIRING AROUND 18Z OR SO
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL
MTNS. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALL
POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. VCTS LOOKS A SAFE BET
FOR KTEX WHILE LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ANY CELLS WILL AFFECT KASE
OR KEGE SO WILL KEEP OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. REMAINING TAF SITES CAN
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND VFR. FOR THAT MATTER...EXPECT VFR FOR
ENTIRE CWA WITH VERY MINIMAL OCCURRENCES OF MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTN.
MOST PRECIP WILL END BY 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200843
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE...OR OPEN WAVE DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT...REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN FAVORING THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THIS
PRECIP WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARM THOUGH THIS CHANGES TOMORROW.

FOR THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
COLORADO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. BUT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
WORKING INTO NEVADA...STRENGTHENING SE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH STORMS AND SHOWERS
INCREASING IN SE UT AND SW CO BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.

TUESDAY THE NAM IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALL MODELS BEGIN TO
LIFT THE BEST FORCING TO THE NE ACROSS IDAHO. THIS WOULD GENERALLY
LIMIT SHOWERS IN THIS FORECAST AREA BUT FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 0.9 INCHES
WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH-
FACING SLOPES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITHIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 5C OR WARMER. STILL
CONVECTION WILL DRIVE SNOW FLAKES LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT BUT WITH
LITTLE SURVIVABLE ACCUMULATION. BREEZY SE-SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH WYOMING-MONTANA WITH THE ENTRANCE TAIL
OF THE 50KT JET DRAGGING ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS
COLDADVECTION AND A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SNOW
LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 8500-9500FT OVERNIGHT BUT RISES AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO NE UTAH ON WEDNESDAY THAT
ENDS SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST SHOWERS
END BY MIDNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER COLORADO MTNS. WITH
CLEARING SKIES A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BENIGN WEATHER SETS UP THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE PAC
NW DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE PLAINS
WHILE WE STAY UNDER SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. A DEEP
TROUGH COMES ASHORE SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY BRINGING SOME PRECIP FOR MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
EC AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR
OUT...DO EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ATTM AS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO START FIRING AROUND 18Z OR SO
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL
MTNS. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALL
POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. VCTS LOOKS A SAFE BET
FOR KTEX WHILE LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ANY CELLS WILL AFFECT KASE
OR KEGE SO WILL KEEP OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. REMAINING TAF SITES CAN
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND VFR. FOR THAT MATTER...EXPECT VFR FOR
ENTIRE CWA WITH VERY MINIMAL OCCURRENCES OF MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTN.
MOST PRECIP WILL END BY 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200517
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1117 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATE DAY CONVECTION FINALLY DYING OFF...BUT STILL ENOUGH WEAK
MUCAPE ALONG WITH AXIS OF 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH PRECIP WATER OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTNS TO KEEP WEAK CONVECTION ALIVE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD SHUT OFF AS ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO FOLLOW CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT
OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT VERY SHORTLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FAR AS TOMORROW IS CONCERNED...EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS LIKE TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TAF SITES WHICH MAY BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE KTEX...KASE...AND KDRO FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z. HAVE
LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR KTEX WHICH IS IN
AN IDEAL LOCATION TO SEE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200517
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1117 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATE DAY CONVECTION FINALLY DYING OFF...BUT STILL ENOUGH WEAK
MUCAPE ALONG WITH AXIS OF 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH PRECIP WATER OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTNS TO KEEP WEAK CONVECTION ALIVE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD SHUT OFF AS ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO FOLLOW CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT
OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT VERY SHORTLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FAR AS TOMORROW IS CONCERNED...EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS LIKE TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TAF SITES WHICH MAY BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE KTEX...KASE...AND KDRO FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z. HAVE
LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR KTEX WHICH IS IN
AN IDEAL LOCATION TO SEE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KPUB 200503
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1103 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED VARIABLE CLOUDS IN COMBINATION
ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES
DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME DATA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH UPPER ENERGY WILL
BE ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

FOR MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW NEARS FAR WEST TEXAS.  IN ADDITION...GRADIENT WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL-BEHAVED THROUGH MONDAY.

ABOVE SEASONAL MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO WATCH...

FIRST SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SYSTEM
RACES EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES
THE PLAINS QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST PRECIPIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL FALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LESS
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PLAINS. THE SYSTEM IS JUST TOO
PROGRESSIVE...COMING ACROSS TOO FAST...TO BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE
PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT. THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME
WETTING RAINS AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 10000 OR 11000
FEET...BUT FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THERE MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
ON THE PLAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION GETTING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ABOUT THAT TIME. BUT...NOT ALL OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS...AND MOST OF THE ORGANIZATION SEEMS TO TAKE
PLACE IN KANSAS...SO NOT TOO SOLD ON THIS IDEA.

AFTER THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...WARM HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...DRY FALL WEATHER...ADDING BREEZY CHINOOK
WINDS TO EQUATION BY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A
LITTLE LESS CLEAR. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE INTO
THE STATE ON THIS DAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SOME STIFF
WESTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS NO
SIGN OF THIS CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING ON FIRMLY TO A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. TOO FAR OUT TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. HAVE TO FOLLOW UP ON THIS LATER. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE 3 MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MTS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOORE



000
FXUS65 KPUB 200503
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1103 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED VARIABLE CLOUDS IN COMBINATION
ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES
DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME DATA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH UPPER ENERGY WILL
BE ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

FOR MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW NEARS FAR WEST TEXAS.  IN ADDITION...GRADIENT WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL-BEHAVED THROUGH MONDAY.

ABOVE SEASONAL MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO WATCH...

FIRST SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SYSTEM
RACES EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES
THE PLAINS QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST PRECIPIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL FALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LESS
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PLAINS. THE SYSTEM IS JUST TOO
PROGRESSIVE...COMING ACROSS TOO FAST...TO BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE
PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT. THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME
WETTING RAINS AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 10000 OR 11000
FEET...BUT FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THERE MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
ON THE PLAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION GETTING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ABOUT THAT TIME. BUT...NOT ALL OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS...AND MOST OF THE ORGANIZATION SEEMS TO TAKE
PLACE IN KANSAS...SO NOT TOO SOLD ON THIS IDEA.

AFTER THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...WARM HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...DRY FALL WEATHER...ADDING BREEZY CHINOOK
WINDS TO EQUATION BY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A
LITTLE LESS CLEAR. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE INTO
THE STATE ON THIS DAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SOME STIFF
WESTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS NO
SIGN OF THIS CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING ON FIRMLY TO A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. TOO FAR OUT TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. HAVE TO FOLLOW UP ON THIS LATER. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE 3 MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MTS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOORE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200316
AFDGJT
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
916 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATE DAY CONVECTION FINALLY DYING OFF...BUT STILL ENOUGH WEAK
MUCAPE ALONG WITH AXIS OF 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH PRECIP WATER OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTNS TO KEEP WEAK CONVECTION ALIVE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD SHUT OFF AS ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO FOLLOW CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. KDRO AND KASE WILL BE THE SITES WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFT 18Z MON WITH KTEX...KASE...AND KEGE THE
MOST VULNERABLE. UNLIKE TODAY...STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NNE
AROUND 15KT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN





000
FXUS65 KGJT 200316 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
916 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATE DAY CONVECTION FINALLY DYING OFF...BUT STILL ENOUGH WEAK
MUCAPE ALONG WITH AXIS OF 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH PRECIP WATER OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTNS TO KEEP WEAK CONVECTION ALIVE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD SHUT OFF AS ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO FOLLOW CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. KDRO AND KASE WILL BE THE SITES WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFT 18Z MON WITH KTEX...KASE...AND KEGE THE
MOST VULNERABLE. UNLIKE TODAY...STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NNE
AROUND 15KT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KBOU 200150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
750 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE IN THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70 WHICH WILL
END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A BROAD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS AT THIS
TIME. LARGE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE BOWS WELL UP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AS A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. A SECONDARY WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN PARK AND
SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A DRY N-NWLY FLOW HAS DRIED OUT THE
HIGH PLAINS AIRMASS WITH HARDLY A CLOUD TO BE SEEN. WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLAINS WAS BEGINNING TO TURN
SELY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT BRUSHES
THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STILL MANAGED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH UPPER 70S ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. TEMPS IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS EVEN MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...
QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOWERS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET WITH CLEARING NOT LONG AFTER THAT.
OTHERWISE REST OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT. TEMP MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGH MTN VALLEY
AND PLAINS RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THE CALM...DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SO IN THESE AREAS WENT WITH MIN
TEMPS 1-3DEG C LOWER THAN THOSE OFFERED BY THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD SEE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS..AND UPPER
20S/30S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH PLACES COLORADO BACK INTO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MODELS INDICATE A 1-1.5DEG
C WARMUP IN 700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FCST AREA WHICH WOULD
EQUATE TO MAX TEMPS 1-3 DEG F WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY. AS FOR
WINDS...LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY BREEZES EARLY TO MID MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS APPROACHING 20KTS BY
MID-AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES INTO SRN COLORADO...POSSIBLY
AS FAR NORTH AS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY AGAIN RESULT
IN A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PARK
AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE DRY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WARMER AIR MOVES ALOFT AND A
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS MAY CREATE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN US TUESDAY AND INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING THIS SYSTEM UP
AS WELL AS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM AS SPED UP...UPWARD
QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE NOW PRETTY WEAK TUESDAY THEN TURN
DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD NOW BRING THE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CAPE MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY QUITE SPARSE IN COVERAGE.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE PLAINS WITH
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY. THE HIGH
TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE STATE WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING AGAIN. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
GFS HAS FOR THE LAST THREE RUNS BROUGHT IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE EC AND GEM HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY AT LEAST. HOWEVER JUST RECENTLY THE EC AND GEM HAVE NOW
BEEN BRINGING IT IN SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER
AND COLDER SYSTEM...FOR A POSSIBLE CHANCE TO SEE SNOW SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS HAVE BECOME SELY AND SHOULD BECOME SLY BY 03Z AND THEN MORE
SSW AFTER 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER/RPK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200011 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
611 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. KDRO AND KASE WILL BE THE SITES WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFT 18Z MON WITH KTEX...KASE...AND KEGE THE
MOST VULNERABLE. UNLIKE TODAY...STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NNE
AROUND 15KT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200011 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
611 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. KDRO AND KASE WILL BE THE SITES WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFT 18Z MON WITH KTEX...KASE...AND KEGE THE
MOST VULNERABLE. UNLIKE TODAY...STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NNE
AROUND 15KT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN



000
FXUS65 KPUB 192138
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
338 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED VARIABLE CLOUDS IN COMBINATION
ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES
DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME DATA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH UPPER ENERGY WILL
BE ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

FOR MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW NEARS FAR WEST TEXAS.  IN ADDITION...GRADIENT WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL-BEHAVED THROUGH MONDAY.

ABOVE SEASONAL MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO WATCH...

FIRST SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SYSTEM
RACES EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES
THE PLAINS QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST PRECIPIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL FALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LESS
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PLAINS. THE SYSTEM IS JUST TOO
PROGRESSIVE...COMING ACROSS TOO FAST...TO BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE
PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT. THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME
WETTING RAINS AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 10000 OR 11000
FEET...BUT FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THERE MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
ON THE PLAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION GETTING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ABOUT THAT TIME. BUT...NOT ALL OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS...AND MOST OF THE ORGANIZATION SEEMS TO TAKE
PLACE IN KANSAS...SO NOT TOO SOLD ON THIS IDEA.

AFTER THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...WARM HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...DRY FALL WEATHER...ADDING BREEZY CHINOOK
WINDS TO EQUATION BY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A
LITTLE LESS CLEAR. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE INTO
THE STATE ON THIS DAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SOME STIFF
WESTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS NO
SIGN OF THIS CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING ON FIRMLY TO A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. TOO FAR OUT TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. HAVE TO FOLLOW UP ON THIS LATER. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS..KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED PRIMARILY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE KALS TAF SITE INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS65 KBOU 192126
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A BROAD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS AT THIS
TIME. LARGE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE BOWS WELL UP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AS A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. A SECONDARY WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN PARK AND
SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A DRY N-NWLY FLOW HAS DRIED OUT THE
HIGH PLAINS AIRMASS WITH HARDLY A CLOUD TO BE SEEN. WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLAINS WAS BEGINNING TO TURN
SELY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT BRUSHES
THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STILL MANAGED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH UPPER 70S ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. TEMPS IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS EVEN MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...
QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOWERS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET WITH CLEARING NOT LONG AFTER THAT.
OTHERWISE REST OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT. TEMP MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGH MTN VALLEY
AND PLAINS RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THE CALM...DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SO IN THESE AREAS WENT WITH MIN
TEMPS 1-3DEG C LOWER THAN THOSE OFFERED BY THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD SEE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS..AND UPPER
20S/30S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH PLACES COLORADO BACK INTO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MODELS INDICATE A 1-1.5DEG
C WARMUP IN 700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FCST AREA WHICH WOULD
EQUATE TO MAX TEMPS 1-3 DEG F WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY. AS FOR
WINDS...LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY BREEZES EARLY TO MID MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS APPROACHING 20KTS BY
MID-AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES INTO SRN COLORADO...POSSIBLY
AS FAR NORTH AS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY AGAIN RESULT
IN A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PARK
AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE DRY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WARMER AIR MOVES ALOFT AND A
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS MAY CREATE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN US TUESDAY AND INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING THIS SYSTEM UP
AS WELL AS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM AS SPED UP...UPWARD
QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE NOW PRETTY WEAK TUESDAY THEN TURN
DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD NOW BRING THE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CAPE MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY QUITE SPARSE IN COVERAGE.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE PLAINS WITH
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY. THE HIGH
TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE STATE WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING AGAIN. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
GFS HAS FOR THE LAST THREE RUNS BROUGHT IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE EC AND GEM HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY AT LEAST. HOWEVER JUST RECENTLY THE EC AND GEM HAVE NOW
BEEN BRINGING IT IN SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER
AND COLDER SYSTEM...FOR A POSSIBLE CHANCE TO SEE SNOW SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORT
TERMINALS. LIGHT ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GO SELY BEFORE
SUNSET...THEN S-SWLY AFTER DARK...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KTS. ON MONDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A
SELY COMPONENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING THAN E-SELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 12KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 192126
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A BROAD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS AT THIS
TIME. LARGE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE BOWS WELL UP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AS A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. A SECONDARY WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN PARK AND
SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A DRY N-NWLY FLOW HAS DRIED OUT THE
HIGH PLAINS AIRMASS WITH HARDLY A CLOUD TO BE SEEN. WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLAINS WAS BEGINNING TO TURN
SELY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT BRUSHES
THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STILL MANAGED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH UPPER 70S ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. TEMPS IN THE
HIGH VALLEYS EVEN MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...
QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOWERS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET WITH CLEARING NOT LONG AFTER THAT.
OTHERWISE REST OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT. TEMP MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGH MTN VALLEY
AND PLAINS RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THE CALM...DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SO IN THESE AREAS WENT WITH MIN
TEMPS 1-3DEG C LOWER THAN THOSE OFFERED BY THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD SEE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS..AND UPPER
20S/30S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH PLACES COLORADO BACK INTO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MODELS INDICATE A 1-1.5DEG
C WARMUP IN 700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FCST AREA WHICH WOULD
EQUATE TO MAX TEMPS 1-3 DEG F WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY. AS FOR
WINDS...LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY BREEZES EARLY TO MID MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS APPROACHING 20KTS BY
MID-AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES INTO SRN COLORADO...POSSIBLY
AS FAR NORTH AS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY AGAIN RESULT
IN A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PARK
AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE DRY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WARMER AIR MOVES ALOFT AND A
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS MAY CREATE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN US TUESDAY AND INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING THIS SYSTEM UP
AS WELL AS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM AS SPED UP...UPWARD
QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE NOW PRETTY WEAK TUESDAY THEN TURN
DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD NOW BRING THE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CAPE MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY QUITE SPARSE IN COVERAGE.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE PLAINS WITH
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY. THE HIGH
TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET MAY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE STATE WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING AGAIN. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE PLAINS. THE
GFS HAS FOR THE LAST THREE RUNS BROUGHT IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE EC AND GEM HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY AT LEAST. HOWEVER JUST RECENTLY THE EC AND GEM HAVE NOW
BEEN BRINGING IT IN SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER
AND COLDER SYSTEM...FOR A POSSIBLE CHANCE TO SEE SNOW SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORT
TERMINALS. LIGHT ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GO SELY BEFORE
SUNSET...THEN S-SWLY AFTER DARK...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KTS. ON MONDAY...LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A
SELY COMPONENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING THAN E-SELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 12KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111
AFDGJT
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CORRECTED SHORT TERM SECTION FOR MISSING WORD

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CORRECTED SHORT TERM SECTION FOR MISSING WORD

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CORRECTED SHORT TERM SECTION FOR MISSING WORD

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KPUB 191714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WARM FALL WEATHER CONTINUES...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ALONG THE OLD MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN AND WRN CO...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD CHANGE BY MID MORNING THRU
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS OUR CWA
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
TRAILING COOL FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
BIT OF A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN MTS. SO...MT AREAS
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...ALONG
WITH A STORM OR TWO AS CAPE LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BUT THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. WITH H7 TEMPS
RISING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE ROCKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
TEMPS WERE YESTERDAY OVER THE PLAINS. MTS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO YESTERDAY...BUT LOCALLY A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEAK UPLIFT TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BEST UPPER FORCING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE OLD UPPER LOW IN NRN MEXICO...SUSPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE TO STAY RATHER SPARSE AND STORM INTENSITY TO REMAIN WEAK
ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS MON LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
TUES...THEN INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD THEN SEE A CHANCE OF
PRECIP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA MOST AREAS WED. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE TIMBER-LINE AS
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD MOST LOCATIONS BOTH MON
AND TUE...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING WED/THU AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A RETURN OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE FROM
FRI INTO SUN. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD MOST LOCATIONS FRI/SAT...BUT
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN WARMER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS 700 MB
TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10C ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS..KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE KALS TAF SITE TODAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPUB 191714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WARM FALL WEATHER CONTINUES...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ALONG THE OLD MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN AND WRN CO...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD CHANGE BY MID MORNING THRU
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS OUR CWA
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
TRAILING COOL FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
BIT OF A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN MTS. SO...MT AREAS
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...ALONG
WITH A STORM OR TWO AS CAPE LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BUT THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. WITH H7 TEMPS
RISING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE ROCKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
TEMPS WERE YESTERDAY OVER THE PLAINS. MTS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO YESTERDAY...BUT LOCALLY A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEAK UPLIFT TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BEST UPPER FORCING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE OLD UPPER LOW IN NRN MEXICO...SUSPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE TO STAY RATHER SPARSE AND STORM INTENSITY TO REMAIN WEAK
ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS MON LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
TUES...THEN INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD THEN SEE A CHANCE OF
PRECIP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA MOST AREAS WED. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE TIMBER-LINE AS
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD MOST LOCATIONS BOTH MON
AND TUE...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING WED/THU AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A RETURN OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE FROM
FRI INTO SUN. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD MOST LOCATIONS FRI/SAT...BUT
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN WARMER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS 700 MB
TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10C ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS..KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE KALS TAF SITE TODAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGJT 191645 AAB
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 191645
AFDGJT
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 191645 AAB
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGJT



000
FXUS65 KBOU 191619
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1019 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR TODAY/S FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE A DECREASE TO SKY
COVERAGE PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WAS SPREADING DOWN FROM
WYOMING. OVERALL TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-9 DEG F AHEAD OF THOSE
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO. HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN SPREADING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. OVERALL...A VERY NICE DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS AT
DENVER AREA TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT...SHOULD BECOME N-NELY IN THE
DENVER AREA BY AROUND 18Z TODAY. THEN RETURN TO A TYPICAL DRAINAGE
PATTERN BY SUNSET. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS65 KBOU 191619
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1019 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR TODAY/S FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE A DECREASE TO SKY
COVERAGE PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WAS SPREADING DOWN FROM
WYOMING. OVERALL TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-9 DEG F AHEAD OF THOSE
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO. HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN SPREADING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. OVERALL...A VERY NICE DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS AT
DENVER AREA TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT...SHOULD BECOME N-NELY IN THE
DENVER AREA BY AROUND 18Z TODAY. THEN RETURN TO A TYPICAL DRAINAGE
PATTERN BY SUNSET. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 191414 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
814 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 191414 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
814 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KPUB 190940
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
340 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WARM FALL WEATHER CONTINUES...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ALONG THE OLD MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN AND WRN CO...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD CHANGE BY MID MORNING THRU
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS OUR CWA
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
TRAILING COOL FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
BIT OF A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN MTS. SO...MT AREAS
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...ALONG
WITH A STORM OR TWO AS CAPE LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BUT THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. WITH H7 TEMPS
RISING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE ROCKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
TEMPS WERE YESTERDAY OVER THE PLAINS. MTS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO YESTERDAY...BUT LOCALLY A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEAK UPLIFT TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BEST UPPER FORCING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE OLD UPPER LOW IN NRN MEXICO...SUSPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE TO STAY RATHER SPARSE AND STORM INTENSITY TO REMAIN WEAK
ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS MON LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
TUES...THEN INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD THEN SEE A CHANCE OF
PRECIP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA MOST AREAS WED. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE TIMBER-LINE AS
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD MOST LOCATIONS BOTH MON
AND TUE...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING WED/THU AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A RETURN OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE FROM
FRI INTO SUN. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD MOST LOCATIONS FRI/SAT...BUT
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN WARMER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS 700 MB
TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10C ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR EVEN TS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF...ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE




000
FXUS65 KPUB 190940
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
340 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WARM FALL WEATHER CONTINUES...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ALONG THE OLD MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN AND WRN CO...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD CHANGE BY MID MORNING THRU
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS OUR CWA
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
TRAILING COOL FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
BIT OF A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN MTS. SO...MT AREAS
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...ALONG
WITH A STORM OR TWO AS CAPE LOOKS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BUT THE ERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. WITH H7 TEMPS
RISING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE ROCKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
TEMPS WERE YESTERDAY OVER THE PLAINS. MTS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO YESTERDAY...BUT LOCALLY A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEAK UPLIFT TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART
AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH BEST UPPER FORCING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE OLD UPPER LOW IN NRN MEXICO...SUSPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE TO STAY RATHER SPARSE AND STORM INTENSITY TO REMAIN WEAK
ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS MON LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
TUES...THEN INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD THEN SEE A CHANCE OF
PRECIP LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR TSRA TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA MOST AREAS WED. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE TIMBER-LINE AS
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD MOST LOCATIONS BOTH MON
AND TUE...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING WED/THU AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A RETURN OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE FROM
FRI INTO SUN. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD MOST LOCATIONS FRI/SAT...BUT
MAY NEED TO GO EVEN WARMER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS 700 MB
TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10C ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR EVEN TS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF...ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



000
FXUS65 KBOU 190907
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FAIRLY RELAXED SO TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SLY WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN NELY THIS AFTN...BACK TO
DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 190907
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FAIRLY RELAXED SO TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SLY WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN NELY THIS AFTN...BACK TO
DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 190907
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FAIRLY RELAXED SO TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SLY WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN NELY THIS AFTN...BACK TO
DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KBOU 190907
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE FAIRLY RELAXED SO TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SLY WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN NELY THIS AFTN...BACK TO
DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER




000
FXUS65 KGJT 190854
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR



000
FXUS65 KGJT 190854
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR




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